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American University Professor Alan
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lickman has been called the profit of
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presidential elections by the New York
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Times for his nearly perfect record of
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predicting the presidential winner over
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the last four decades he uses a system
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of 13 questions or Keys as he calls them
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that he believes tap into how
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presidential elections really work now
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this year spoiler alert because it's
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already been reported he did not break
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the news with me he expects vice
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president KLA Harris to win in November
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and he's here now to talk about his
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thinking behind that pick some of the
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blowback he's gotten and his process as
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a whole hi so nice to see you how are
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you I'm doing well so good to be with
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you I'm ready to answer all of your
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questions well that's wonderful news and
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somewhat unusual sometimes so thank you
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for that um listen your approach Allan
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is so unique and I would say slightly
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oldfashioned given our data obsessed
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world
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it really Tunes out polls and pollsters
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and takes a much more organic approach
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focusing as I said on these 13 key
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questions tell us about the system and
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how you developed it yeah I don't pay
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attention to pundits they're my buddies
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I love them but they have no scientific
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basis for their opinions I don't follow
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the polls because polls are snapshots
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they're abused as predictors rather I
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look at the fundamental forces
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that explain the results of presidential
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elections and the big message of the
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keys that does make it unique is that
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it's governing not campaigning that
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counts and the keys gauge the strength
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and performance of The White House Party
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I'd love to tell you I came across this
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by ruining my eyes in the archives by
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Deep contemplation but if I were to tell
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you that to quote the late not so great
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Richard Nixon that would be wrong like
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discoveries the keys developed uh kind
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of by accident in 1981 I was a
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distinguished visiting scholar at
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Caltech in Southern California and there
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I met the world's leading Authority on
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earthquake prediction Vladimir kyus Boro
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the head of the Institute of pattern
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recognition and earthquake prediction in
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Moscow and get this in
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1963 he was a member of the Soviet
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science scientific delegation that came
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to Washington and negotiated the most
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important treaty in the history of the
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world the testband treaty that stopped
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us from poisoning our atmosphere our
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oceans and our soil and he said in DC he
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fell in love with politics and always
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wanted to use the methods of earthquake
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prediction to predict important
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elections but he said look I live in the
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Soviet Union elections forget it or
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Supreme leader or off with your head but
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you me you're an expert in the
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presidency in history and politics so we
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became The Odd Couple of political
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research and the key to our breakthrough
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was
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reconceptualizing presidential elections
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in geophysical terms remember this is 81
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not as cter versus Reagan not as liberal
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versus conservative not as Republican
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versus Democrat but as stability the
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White House Party keeps power earthquake
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the White House Party is tossed out of
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power with that in mind we looked at
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every American presidential election
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from the horse and buggy days of
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Politics the election of Abraham Lincoln
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in 1860 through the election of Reagan
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in 1980 and we used kyus boro's method
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of pattern recognition to see what
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patterns in the political environment
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were associated with stability and
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earthquake and that research empirically
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led to the 13 keys to the White House
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which were indicators that could best
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distinguish over 120 years of our
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politics stability and earthquake and it
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led to a simple decision rule if five or
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fewer of the keys go against the White
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House Party they are predicted winners
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six or more negative Keys they're
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predicted losers well I'm going to ask
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asked you about these Keys specifically
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in a moment but was this year any
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different Allan given the fact that Joe
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Biden was the presumptive candidate and
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then he dropped out of the race uh over
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the summer did that mess up your ideas
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or or your analysis at all the strange
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circumstances of the democratic
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transition were fully accounted for by
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the keys I was very critical of the
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Democrats for publicly crashing
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viciously they're sitting president I've
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never seen that before and I've studied
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our politics since the founding and I
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thought they were headed for disaster
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because not only would they push Biden
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out losing one of my keys the incumbency
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key they would have a big party brawl
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losing a second key the nomination
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contest for the White House Party no
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white house party has ever gotten
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reelected since 1900 when losing both
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those keys but somehow the Democrats
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grew a spine in bra maybe they listen to
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me I doubt it it doesn't sound like they
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listen to you because you were highly
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critical of Joe Biden being one regard
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uniting behind Harris and avoiding
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losing the contest key but the
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nomination of Harris cost them one key
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but it may have helped saved two other
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Keys the third party key voters no
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longer had to choose between two old
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white guys hate saying that being an old
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white guy myself but it's true and that
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contributed to the fizzling of RFK Jr
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the social unres key the protests were
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directed against Biden he's now in the
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background so Harris is in the
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foreground so the keys fully accounted
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for these unique circumstances within
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the Democratic party what about the
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Charisma key because Joe Biden's was his
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his performance on the stump and in
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speeches and obviously in the debate was
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waning I would say uh did that help
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kamla Harris with your charisma key
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which a lot of people have criticized as
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being far too
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subjective you know the folks who are
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criticizing the Charisma key for being
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subjective probably haven't read my book
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I have tightly defined the Charisma key
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and I've answered it since 18 60 it's
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not subjective and I was at first
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criticized by the professional
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forecasters for subjectivity but they
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completely came around and understood
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how tightly defined these keys were I
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twice keynoted the international
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forecasting Summit a special edition of
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the leading scientific journal on
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applied forecasting was devoted to the
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keys to the White House explaining how
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judgmental indicators were particularly
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well suited to predicting
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elections talk about the Charisma key to
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turn the Charisma key you have to be one
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of those once in a
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generation across the board
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inspirational transformational car uh
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candidates the iconic examples and there
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are very few of them of candidates
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who've met the high threshold for the
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Charisma keys are Franklin roselt on the
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Democratic side and Ronald Reagan on the
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Republic side before the debate I had
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already counted the Charisma key against
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Biden he's no FDR and the Advent of
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Harris didn't change that I still dock
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the Democrats on the Charisma key she's
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only been around as a candidate a couple
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of months she hasn't reached the stature
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of an FDR I've been blasted though for
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not giving Trump the Challenger Charisma
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key but when you look at the definition
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he clearly doesn't fulfill it he's not
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an across the board transformational
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candidate he appeals to a narrow base
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and that's precluded by my definition in
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four years as president his approval
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rating averaged 41% the narrow base he
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was right at the bottom historically of
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presidents in two elections he lost the
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vote of the People by 10 million votes
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FDR and Reagan won six elections by
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Landslide so it's not what you think of
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trump that doesn't matter he doesn't fit
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the key let's talk about the other Keys
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you mentioned the accompany key can you
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just rattle them off fairly quickly
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Allan and just give us a quick uh
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thumbnail description of each key do you
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want me also to tell you how I turn each
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key or just describe them oh go go ahead
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tell us how you turn it yeah so my first
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key is mandate based on US House
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elections the Democrats lost that one
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because they lost US House Seats in 2022
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so they're down one remember it takes
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six to count them out uh internal party
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contest they avoided that they win that
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one incumbency key obviously with Biden
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not running they lose that having a vice
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president run does not Salvage that key
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so that's two down third party they win
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that with the fizzling and withdrawing
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of RFK junr and short-term economy this
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has been wildly misinterpreted this is
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is a very simple and clear key it has
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nothing to do with you know people's
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perception of inflation or on the other
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hand their perception of employment it
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says there is no recession in the
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election year there is no recession a
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recession cannot grip the economy in one
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month Democrats hold that similarly the
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long-term economy key is very specific
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it's very quantitative real per capita
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growth during the term at least equals
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the average of the previous two terms
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growth under Biden has been double that
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one is clearly for the Democrats so of
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the first six Keys they've lost two we
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then get to policy change clearly major
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changes in policy between Biden and the
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Trump Administration we see that in
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every debate Democrats win that one I
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already talked about social unrest and
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the fizzling of the protest Democrats
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win that one
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my favorite key the juiciest key is the
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Scandal key for four years Republicans
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have tried to pin a scandal on Biden and
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come up empty their so-called Smoking
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Gun witness Mr smof was arrested by the
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FBI for lying about Biden and spreading
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Russian propaganda and again when you
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read the book you'll see the key very
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specifically applies only to the
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president it has to be corruption
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implicating the president not his son
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Hunter not Jimmy Carter's reprobate
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brother Billy so Democrats win that one
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then there are the two most difficult
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keys to call Keys 10 and 11 the foreign
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slm military failure and success keys I
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found the most difficult to call we have
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two Wars raging you know the
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vicissitudes of War are unpredictable
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but I split them which I think is
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accurate I docked the administration for
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uh what's going on in the Middle East
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the Middle East is a humanitarian
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catastrophe with no end in sight that's
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three keys down I gave the
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administration the foreign policy
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success key because it was Biden and
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Biden alone who put together the
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Coalition of the West that stopped Putin
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from conquering Ukraine and threatening
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our NATO allies and undermining
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America's national security Alan I
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wanted to ask you real quickly before
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you add up the keys what about the
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flawed withdrawal from Afghanistan the
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Republicans have really focused on that
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as a major foreign policy blunder for
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the Biden Administration was that
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considered when you were evaluating
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military failures versus success of
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course I already docked them for
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military failure you can't dock them
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twice no but was that part of the was
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that part of the equation I'm sorry what
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was that part of the equation
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for docking them I docked them on the
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Middle East that was enough you know you
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got two very dueling reports on
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Afghanistan coming out of the Congress
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it's it's very much of a partisan issue
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I don't like deciding on a partisan
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issue and it didn't have to because
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clearly uh what's going on in the Middle
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East can be analyzed on a strictly
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nonpartisan basis so add up the keys so
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far so far there are three down the
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party mandate
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incumbency and foreign slm military
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failure only two keys left and they have
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to do with the candidates I docked
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Harris she's not yet in FDR she's been
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around a couple of months she hasn't
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reached that kind of stature that's four
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Keys down and as I explained Donald
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Trump does not come close to being the
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kind of a cross thee board appealing
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candidate to turn the Challenger
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Charisma key 13 against the White House
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party so that's four remember it takes
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six for Donald Trump to come back into
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the White House and Kamala Harris to
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lose so even if you didn't agree with me
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on the foreign slm military success key
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which I think is the only shaky one that
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still would be one key short of
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predicting a democratic defeat that's
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why the keys predict we're going to have
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a new unprecedented president kamla
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Harris will become the first woman
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president president of the US at least
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cracking if not shattering the glass
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ceiling and she'll be the first
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president of mixed African and East
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Asian descent kind of foreshadowing
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where America's going we're rapidly
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becoming a majority minority country old
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white guys like me are on the
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decline by 2044 in fact that is expected
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to be the case I wanted to ask you about
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these swing States and how you take into
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account these extremely close races in
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places like Pennsylvania Michigan
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Wisconsin Arizona Nevada at North
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Carolina although that doesn't look that
00:15:11
close how does this key
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methodology fit with these very tight
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races in those states where the election
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or the Electoral College that is could
00:15:23
be decided on you know based on just a
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few what 50 100,000 votes in those
00:15:31
States you know we're the world's
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longest continuous running democracy and
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that's great we have great Traditions
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but we're also stuck with these obsolete
00:15:42
18th century institutions very much tied
00:15:46
to slavery because the slave states
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didn't want popular vote because the
00:15:50
slaves would count for nothing so you
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know it's a very sad thing as you point
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out that elections could be decided by
00:15:58
just a few States and most of the
00:16:00
country being ignored but the truth is
00:16:03
you cannot predict elections by trying
00:16:07
to figure out what's going on in the
00:16:10
so-called swing States because the error
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margin in the polls is much much greater
00:16:16
than the vote in those you know they
00:16:19
tell you the error margin is plus and
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minus 3% which was already much greater
00:16:23
that's pure statistical error doesn't
00:16:25
take into account people lying not yet
00:16:28
Focus focus on the on the election not
00:16:30
responding and guesses about who the
00:16:33
likely voters are that's why I look at
00:16:36
these simple integral parameters that
00:16:39
deal with the electorate as a whole and
00:16:42
correlate with who is going to win and
00:16:45
who is going to lose it's a very unique
00:16:47
but very successful way of looking at
00:16:50
elections different from including a lot
00:16:52
of academic modelers who tried to model
00:16:56
you know the Electoral College as
00:16:58
opposed to Le integral parameters and
00:17:00
have often been wrong as have the
00:17:02
pollsters been wrong as they were in
00:17:05
2016 you mentioned the pollsters and you
00:17:08
believe they've recently been
00:17:09
underestimating Democratic strength I
00:17:12
always hear the other way around Allan
00:17:14
that they're
00:17:16
underestimating uh support for Donald
00:17:18
Trump can you explain that to me
00:17:21
absolutely it's absolutely correct in
00:17:25
2016 the poll's underestimated
00:17:27
Republican voting stengths and
00:17:31
so they like generals fighting the last
00:17:34
war tried to correct that and the result
00:17:37
is based upon three sets of recent
00:17:41
elections
00:17:43
2022 midterms when the polls
00:17:47
overestimated Republican success in the
00:17:49
Senate and the house the 2023 offier
00:17:53
elections when they
00:17:55
underestimated Democratic wins and the
00:17:57
special election of 2024 when they
00:18:01
underestimated Democratic performance
00:18:03
the classic example is the most uh
00:18:07
watched special election the New York
00:18:10
State congressional election for the
00:18:13
seat vacated by The Expelled disgraced
00:18:16
George Santos it's a swing District It
00:18:19
Was Won by a
00:18:21
Republican and a Paul taken just a
00:18:24
couple of days on the eve of the
00:18:26
election had it as a dead heat the
00:18:28
Democrat won by one point the Democrat
00:18:31
won by eight points outperforming the
00:18:35
poll by seven points and typically in
00:18:38
these three set election Cycles
00:18:41
Democrats have been outperforming the
00:18:43
polls by Five Points so more Alan I
00:18:46
don't know how you keep all of this in
00:18:48
that head of yours but I'm impressed
00:18:51
having said that you didn't get one
00:18:53
election right although you might argue
00:18:57
you did predict the real winner were
00:18:59
were it not for the Supreme Court's
00:19:01
involvement and that is Bush bore in
00:19:05
2000 yes you know I was on the bill Mar
00:19:08
show anticipating my 2020 prediction
00:19:11
after my success in 2016 the first thing
00:19:14
he asked me was how did you f up 2000 he
00:19:17
didn't use that word but you can imagine
00:19:20
I wouldn't be surprised if he had but go
00:19:22
on and I said I didn't Florida did the
00:19:27
wrong person
00:19:29
one Florida the wrong person was elected
00:19:32
president as I proved in my report to
00:19:35
the US Commission on civil rights still
00:19:39
on their website you can check it out
00:19:41
there was a vast disproportion in
00:19:44
rejected ballots cast by
00:19:46
African-Americans who are 95% for Gore
00:19:49
as opposed to ballots cast by whites and
00:19:52
the great majority of those ballots that
00:19:54
were tossed cast by African-Americans
00:19:57
were not those so-called hanging Chads
00:20:00
or dimples people don't understand it
00:20:02
they were so-called overvotes where
00:20:05
African-Americans for good reason didn't
00:20:07
trust the system it was being run by you
00:20:10
know the Republican candidate's brother
00:20:12
was the governor so they punched in Gore
00:20:16
and then to be certain they rode in Gore
00:20:19
and Florida tossed all those votes this
00:20:21
was further confirmed by an independent
00:20:24
study by Professor Walter meban of
00:20:26
Cornell University entitled The wrong
00:20:28
man as president exclamation point and
00:20:31
he said based on the clear intent of
00:20:34
Voters and those so-called overvotes
00:20:36
Gore should have won Florida by tens of
00:20:38
thousands so I would say I am more right
00:20:41
than wrong but we could debate 2,000
00:20:44
forever let me ask you about the
00:20:47
so-called October surprise you don't
00:20:50
believe in them and you don't think they
00:20:52
really have an impact but what about
00:20:54
James Comey announcing that he was going
00:20:56
to continue to investigate Hillary
00:20:59
Clinton's emails don't you think that
00:21:00
had a big impact in
00:21:04
2016 you're right the biggest myth in
00:21:07
American politics from my point of view
00:21:09
is the October surprise I've issued my
00:21:12
predictions always before then and never
00:21:14
changed them and my ultimate reputation
00:21:17
of whether the Comey letter had any
00:21:19
impact was I made my prediction long
00:21:23
before the Comey letter you know the
00:21:26
other thing people said my gosh the axis
00:21:30
Hollywood tape we've never before had a
00:21:33
candidate admitting on tape that he's
00:21:36
sexually assaulted women and I did not
00:21:39
change my
00:21:40
prediction you know in response to that
00:21:43
so-called October surprise and the
00:21:46
reason I don't change is as I told you
00:21:49
the keys tap into the fundamental forces
00:21:53
that drive elections that the big
00:21:55
message is that it's governing not
00:21:57
campaigning that counts you know beyond
00:21:59
this every four years someone tells me
00:22:02
this election is unique you got to
00:22:03
change your keys we have an
00:22:05
African-American running never had that
00:22:08
before America is not ready to elect an
00:22:10
African-American we have the Access
00:22:12
Hollywood tape never seen that before no
00:22:15
one admitting that is going to ever be
00:22:18
reelected and my answer is you can't
00:22:21
change a model on the Fly that's a
00:22:24
recipe for
00:22:25
era
00:22:27
and the key Keys transcend these
00:22:31
campaign events and finally the keys are
00:22:33
incredibly robust they go all the way
00:22:36
back developmentally to 1860 when we had
00:22:39
no automobiles no planes no polls no
00:22:41
radio no television women couldn't vote
00:22:44
African-Americans were enslaved so the
00:22:46
keys have survived enormous changes in
00:22:49
our society our politics our economics
00:22:52
our demography now I'm not so arrogant
00:22:55
to say nothing could ever change there
00:22:58
could be something so catastrophic to
00:23:01
change the pattern of 160 years but the
00:23:04
problem is Katie you would never know
00:23:06
that until afterwards you can't listen
00:23:09
to those folks who are saying oh you got
00:23:11
to change your keys in response to this
00:23:13
or that well some people have asked me
00:23:16
to ask you via social media has your
00:23:19
prediction changed in light of recent
00:23:21
events to assassination attempts the
00:23:24
vice presidential debate Performance
00:23:26
Port strikes and IR attacks on Israel
00:23:30
and I guess you would answer the same
00:23:32
way you just answered the previous
00:23:34
questions that the keys transcend these
00:23:36
events absolutely you cannot you know
00:23:40
make ad hoc post Hoke adjustments based
00:23:44
on what people tell you is going to be
00:23:47
significant and you know in terms of
00:23:50
debates there is not a shred of evidence
00:23:53
that debates predict elections I
00:23:55
understand the Biden Trump debate
00:23:57
changed the Democratic ticket but the
00:23:59
keys fully took that into account
00:24:01
Hillary Clinton won all the debates and
00:24:03
still lost John kery won the debates
00:24:05
against that very bad debat of George W
00:24:08
bush and still lost so no I don't change
00:24:13
my predictions based upon what people
00:24:16
tell me you know might be events that
00:24:18
turn the election because the record of
00:24:22
40 Years of predictions and 120 years of
00:24:26
development stands for itself someone
00:24:29
asks if there is a legal batter battle
00:24:31
over the certificate sorry someone asks
00:24:35
if there is a legal battle over the
00:24:37
certification of ballots does that
00:24:39
factor into your
00:24:41
prediction well I can't factor that into
00:24:43
my prediction because it's only happened
00:24:46
once in 2000 so you know you can't
00:24:50
factor in an anomaly well there was an
00:24:53
attempted one in 2020 wouldn't you argue
00:24:55
there was an attempt to uh
00:24:59
it failed certify yes
00:25:01
exactly there was a prolonged legal
00:25:04
battle in the form of 62 lawsuits but
00:25:06
you're right that failed as well it
00:25:08
failed so you know how would I know what
00:25:11
the legal battles are going to be and
00:25:13
whether they're going to succeed and
00:25:14
fail you can't take something into
00:25:17
account that's you know an unknown
00:25:19
unknown happen
00:25:22
yet I'm worried I'm
00:25:25
worried you know the system held Trump
00:25:28
lost every one of his significant
00:25:31
lawsuits even in front of judges that he
00:25:33
himself had appointed the system worked
00:25:37
am I worried this time that they are
00:25:40
better able because they've embedded
00:25:42
people in election Administration and
00:25:45
are better able to manipulate the
00:25:47
results you bet I am of course I'm
00:25:49
worried but that's outside the scope of
00:25:52
the keys or any predictive model what
00:25:55
someone wants to know what is the big
00:25:58
feuded with you and Nate silver we
00:26:01
understand that you have kissed and made
00:26:02
up recently tell us about that and where
00:26:06
you all were not seeing eye to eye well
00:26:09
it goes all the way back to
00:26:12
2011 I made my call for uh Barack
00:26:16
Obama's reelection early on in 2010
00:26:19
sometimes the keys fall in place early
00:26:21
my first prediction was in April 1982 of
00:26:25
Ronald Reagan's reelection nearly three
00:26:27
years ahead of time time when 60% of
00:26:29
Americans said he was too old to run
00:26:31
again and his approval ratings were
00:26:33
historically low but in 2010 as in 1982
00:26:37
I could foresee the re-election of the
00:26:39
incumbent out of the blue unprovoked
00:26:42
Nate Silva writes this lengthy critique
00:26:45
saying you can't make such a prediction
00:26:47
so early of course being a professor I
00:26:50
wrote a lengthy response saying yes I
00:26:52
can I can because my system Taps into
00:26:56
the fundamental forces that Drive
00:26:58
elections you can't because you use
00:27:00
polls and polls are useless until you
00:27:03
get very close to the election and even
00:27:05
then are not necessarily right
00:27:08
eventually he came around to agreeing
00:27:10
with me and I wrote a very nice email
00:27:13
saying let's write a joint article
00:27:16
explaining how two forecasters using
00:27:19
different methods came to the same
00:27:20
answer no response not even a polite
00:27:24
refusal so you know that's kind of the
00:27:26
start of it then he claimed he can turn
00:27:28
the keys better than I can and you know
00:27:31
if he turned them and I never saw how he
00:27:33
did it you know it would produce a trump
00:27:36
Victory you know anyone can do what they
00:27:39
want with the keys and I always say you
00:27:42
know if you want to have some different
00:27:45
way of turning the keys than I have in
00:27:49
160 years go right ahead develop your
00:27:51
own prediction system but if you're
00:27:53
going to use my system you got to stick
00:27:55
with how the deys been defined and how
00:27:57
they I explain he's not an historian
00:28:00
he's not a political scientist he hasn't
00:28:02
combed through 160 years of politics to
00:28:05
get a different take on the keys and so
00:28:10
that you know again I thought you know
00:28:12
to quote John Rambo he was drawing first
00:28:14
blood again and I responded but
00:28:17
eventually I decided this was pointless
00:28:20
you know there's no we do such different
00:28:22
things there's no point in US sniping at
00:28:25
one another and I produced a very nice
00:28:29
video explaining why we should bury the
00:28:31
hatchet do our own things let the chips
00:28:34
fall where they may and no reason to you
00:28:37
know criticize one another that was very
00:28:40
very big of you Allan I'm glad you did
00:28:43
that and did did did Nate respond
00:28:46
positively to that Overture I haven't
00:28:49
seen any response oh okay well hopefully
00:28:51
maybe he has but I haven't seen it I
00:28:54
don't monitor everything he does before
00:28:57
before we go I just want to ask you
00:29:00
about the backlash you've gotten through
00:29:02
uh to your prediction this year what has
00:29:05
the response been and I think it's been
00:29:08
uh gosh stronger than in previous years
00:29:11
can you talk about that yes look my
00:29:15
predictions are totally nonpartisan of
00:29:18
course I have my own political views you
00:29:19
know that but that has nothing to do
00:29:21
with my predictions I predicted the two
00:29:23
most conservative presidents of our time
00:29:27
against the conventional wisdom at the
00:29:29
time I made my predictions Ronald Reagan
00:29:31
and Donald Trump I predicted liberals
00:29:33
like uh Barack Obama but nonetheless
00:29:38
every four years you know I make half
00:29:41
the country mad at me is this you're any
00:29:44
different absolutely I have never seen
00:29:48
the outpouring of hate that I have seen
00:29:52
this year I get the most scures the most
00:29:56
vulgar even sometimes violent criticisms
00:30:01
of the keys by people who have no
00:30:03
qualifications don't understand the keys
00:30:06
don't know how to turn them but think
00:30:08
they know better than I do and these
00:30:10
things are so absurd and so ridiculous A
00:30:14
lot of them say they're criticizing my
00:30:17
appearance and my hair saying you can't
00:30:19
make a good prediction because you're
00:30:21
wearing a wig well I'm not this is
00:30:22
actually my real hair eat your heart out
00:30:26
so this is how ridiculous and how
00:30:28
hateful and how absurd the criticism has
00:30:32
been this year and you know it's two
00:30:34
things one magga people who loved my
00:30:37
prediction of trump in
00:30:39
2016 but hate my prediction of Harris
00:30:42
and then a bunch of unethical wannabes
00:30:45
who have no credentials no following who
00:30:48
are trying to make a name for themselves
00:30:50
on my back well gosh that's sort of
00:30:53
scary and I think it's indicative of how
00:30:56
the discourse has really gone into the
00:30:58
gutter and that's why I think the vice
00:31:02
presidential debate was somewhat
00:31:04
refreshing because they both
00:31:06
acknowledged agreement in certain areas
00:31:08
and seemed to for the most part treat
00:31:11
each other with respect I agree with
00:31:13
that but the vice
00:31:15
presidential absolutely frightening and
00:31:18
chilling at the end when JD Vance
00:31:21
refused to say that the 2020 election
00:31:25
was was fair even though every Court had
00:31:27
a agreed this raised huge alarm bells
00:31:31
for me that if they lose Vance and Trump
00:31:35
are can do the same thing all over again
00:31:37
not just inight and Insurrection that's
00:31:40
just part of it they also had slates of
00:31:42
phony fake electors all over the country
00:31:45
to try to overturn the vote of the
00:31:47
people that was chilling I thought that
00:31:50
wiped out anything else that JD Vance
00:31:53
may have said not accept our democracy
00:31:57
that's disqualifying and that's how we
00:32:00
ended the debate and that I know the
00:32:02
Harris campaign is planning to make a
00:32:04
commercial out of that answer you know
00:32:07
one I wasn't going to bring this up but
00:32:10
just because I have you here I want to
00:32:13
do an interview with Neil Cal and John
00:32:15
msky two friends of mine one a sort of
00:32:18
amateur historian but both lawyers who
00:32:21
are very worried about what is going on
00:32:23
at the state level with slates of
00:32:26
electors empowering leg legislatures to
00:32:29
overturn the will of the people have you
00:32:31
looked into that at all Allan and how
00:32:34
concerned are you that the
00:32:36
infrastructure to contest this election
00:32:39
is being put in place quietly behind the
00:32:42
scenes I'm terrified you know we saw
00:32:45
what happened with uh the board of
00:32:48
elections in some of the red States
00:32:51
giving these election deniers that they
00:32:54
put in place in local administrations
00:32:57
disc ression to look behind the vote
00:33:01
when in fact all they should be doing is
00:33:03
a ministerial duty to ratify the vote of
00:33:07
the people this is more chilling than
00:33:09
last time because as you said they
00:33:11
prepared for it now in advance by
00:33:14
putting these election deniers in place
00:33:17
in Statewide Boards of Elections and in
00:33:20
local election Administration that
00:33:22
terrifies me do you think enough
00:33:24
attention is being paid to that pardon
00:33:27
me do you think they're paying an do you
00:33:29
think enough attention is being paid to
00:33:32
that not even close not even close you
00:33:35
know I don't think nearly enough
00:33:37
attention is being paid to the way in
00:33:40
which uh Vance and Trump are preparing
00:33:44
to contest the results uh illicitly if
00:33:49
they lose sure they can go to court
00:33:51
that's fine and they tried that last
00:33:53
time and lost every significant case no
00:33:55
problem with that but to try to manip
00:33:57
ulate the results at the point of the
00:34:00
election is really chilling and really
00:34:03
frightening and that was something Trump
00:34:05
tried to do but he didn't have the
00:34:07
infrastructure in place remember the
00:34:09
infamous phone call to uh
00:34:13
secreter right in in the state of
00:34:16
Georgia saying just find me whatever it
00:34:18
is around 12,000 votes so I can win so
00:34:22
in effect he was pressuring election
00:34:24
officials to change the vote of the
00:34:27
people people now he's trying to do it
00:34:30
at an earlier point at the counting of
00:34:33
the vote
00:34:34
itself Alan lickman what a pleasure to
00:34:37
talk to you thank you so much for your
00:34:38
insights for explaining the keys to us
00:34:42
and telling us that what you do is an
00:34:45
increasingly dangerous job in this very
00:34:48
polarized country of ours I thought I
00:34:51
was just a safe Professor you
00:34:54
know it it's really scary what's going
00:34:56
on in our country today in terms of the
00:34:59
toxicity of politics well on that note
00:35:02
thank you again take care
