00:00:00
guys we have three stocks trading at or
00:00:02
near their 52e low now remember the
00:00:05
reason we look at 52- we low stocks is
00:00:07
because they're a great place to start
00:00:09
looking for opportunity if a stock is
00:00:11
down a lot there's probably a reason for
00:00:13
it but the question is is it down more
00:00:16
than it should be stock number one
00:00:18
Hershey's hsy guys this company is on my
00:00:22
list of companies I want to own Forever
00:00:24
This stock is at 176 a share it was at
00:00:27
27688 back in May 1st at 52 we low was
00:00:31
just yesterday at
00:00:32
173 so this company we all know what it
00:00:35
does they all sit here and this is at a
00:00:38
low and I love the fact that it's
00:00:39
sitting there first off $45 billion
00:00:42
market cap 53 billion Enterprise value8
00:00:46
billion difference is essentially its
00:00:48
debt but it generated 1.38 billion in
00:00:51
free cash flow last year and 1.5 billion
00:00:54
in the last five years each year now why
00:00:56
does that matter well we want to sit
00:00:58
there and have companies that generate a
00:01:00
lot of free cash flow that can pay down
00:01:02
their debt that can afford their debt
00:01:03
Hershey's has a great brand and they're
00:01:05
probably not going away imagine the
00:01:07
world that we'd have to live in that
00:01:09
Hershey's went away that's what's
00:01:10
incredible they PID dividend last year
00:01:13
of
00:01:14
2.25% eats up a billion dollar their
00:01:17
forward dividend is 3% this is a big
00:01:19
dividend company but they're eating up
00:01:20
that free cash flow with a lot of return
00:01:23
on invested Capital what that tells me
00:01:25
is they don't see much room for growth
00:01:27
so this is GNA be a this is going to be
00:01:28
a slow and steady buy it at a good price
00:01:32
because if they're eating up so much
00:01:33
cash flow to pay off that dividend I
00:01:36
look at that saying they obviously don't
00:01:38
see much opportunity for investment
00:01:40
that's okay but it just means you got to
00:01:42
get it a lot cheaper to get that return
00:01:44
for yourself now a couple other things I
00:01:46
like very consistent last five years
00:01:48
profit margin of 16.12 last year of
00:01:52
16.76% nice and pretty but their
00:01:55
earnings net income is much higher than
00:01:57
their free cash flow last year but in
00:01:59
the last five years very very similar
00:02:02
they're selling for 30 times free cash
00:02:05
flow and earnings over the last five
00:02:07
years 30 is a lot especially for a
00:02:09
company doesn't have a lot of growth
00:02:11
cocacola when Warren Buffett started
00:02:13
buying it he paid 30 times back in 1987
00:02:16
he still made 11 and a half per return
00:02:17
on his money with dividends does that
00:02:19
make this okay are Hershey's and Coke
00:02:22
very similar companies and Brands I
00:02:24
don't know that's the question we have
00:02:26
to ask
00:02:27
ourselves let's look at the eight
00:02:28
pillars here
00:02:30
shares outstanding jumped a lot 23% my
00:02:33
guess is some sort of acquisition so we
00:02:35
got to take a look at that and apart
00:02:37
from that they've got their we already
00:02:39
went over their 5year PE and pre price
00:02:41
of free cash flow let's go check out
00:02:44
their acquisition so we go to their cash
00:02:46
flow statement go to
00:02:48
Acquisitions and 1.22 billion right
00:02:51
there 480 million 87 million 1.73
00:02:56
billion right there so really that's
00:02:58
probably where it was the the 1.73
00:03:00
billion back in 2021 so let's go to
00:03:03
their income statement at the very
00:03:05
bottom of the income statement it'll
00:03:06
show shares outstanding now with the
00:03:08
global chocolate Market hitting a
00:03:11
jaw-dropping
00:03:13
1227 billion in 2024 the average
00:03:16
American is dropping $150 on chocolate
00:03:20
every single year that's a lot of action
00:03:22
for That Sweet Tooth guys so when it
00:03:24
comes to the US Hershey is straight up
00:03:27
dominating the scene they're not just
00:03:28
the number one player in the C game
00:03:30
they're also number two snack brand in
00:03:32
the entire country but wait a second
00:03:36
globally chocolate consumption isn't
00:03:38
slowing down anytime soon the world
00:03:40
inhales a staggering 7 and half million
00:03:44
tons of chocolate every single year now
00:03:47
of course nothing's all sunshine and
00:03:49
chocolate bars for Hershey the whole
00:03:51
chocolate industry is filling the heat
00:03:53
recession worries are real people are
00:03:55
being more healthc conscious slash
00:03:59
weight loss meds like OIC that may be
00:04:01
stealing the spotlight from chocolate oh
00:04:03
and also did I mention cocoa prices
00:04:05
they've been in a roller coaster ride
00:04:07
hitting all-time highs earlier in 2024
00:04:10
only to drop by more than 40% since
00:04:12
that's a big drop now despite all that
00:04:15
Hershey's is still rolling with the
00:04:16
punches sure their earnings and revenue
00:04:18
are down but here's the kicker they're
00:04:21
investing big to keep things running
00:04:22
smoothly they've slashed some of their
00:04:24
stock buyback plans to make room for a
00:04:26
whopping $600 million investment to
00:04:28
upgrade their Erp the enterprise
00:04:31
resource planning system so you might be
00:04:33
wondering what the hell is that well
00:04:35
basically this high-tech software will
00:04:37
help Hershey manage its cash and
00:04:39
resources like a pro making sure they
00:04:41
stay on top of their game in this
00:04:42
everchanging market so of course heres
00:04:45
is going through some challenges a lot
00:04:47
of people are but I don't think they're
00:04:49
out for the count so let's see what the
00:04:51
analysts think about them so their
00:04:52
earnings per share according to analyst
00:04:54
960 to 1180 not much growth there guys
00:04:57
not a lot of growth and if that's true
00:04:59
all the more reason you need to buy it
00:05:01
for an inexpensive price but look at
00:05:02
this Revenue growth 1% 3% 3% 7% 3 and a
00:05:07
half% okay about inflation which what I
00:05:10
probably expect probably a little bit
00:05:12
better than worldwide nominal GDP growth
00:05:15
that's what I look at when I think with
00:05:16
Hershey's so remember guys this is a
00:05:18
great story this is a great company with
00:05:20
a very addicting product the question is
00:05:23
what's the right price to pay it can be
00:05:25
the most amazing company in the world
00:05:27
but if you overpay for it you end up in
00:05:29
a bad situation I don't care how great
00:05:31
the story is if you pay 10 trillion for
00:05:33
it you're going to end up not doing well
00:05:36
that's why the stock analyzer was
00:05:37
created we created the stock analyzer
00:05:39
tool specifically to be able to put in
00:05:42
your assumptions about the future both
00:05:44
all low middle and high assumption to
00:05:46
get some sort of price that's right for
00:05:48
you today we start with Revenue growth I
00:05:50
did two three and a half and 5% Revenue
00:05:53
growth nothing huge in fact I could
00:05:55
argue two three and four whatever it is
00:05:57
but I wanted to go a little bit higher
00:05:58
on the high side
00:06:00
profit margin good news is we see profit
00:06:02
margins increasing from 14% on average
00:06:05
for the last 10 years all the way to
00:06:07
1676 in the last year so I did 13 and a
00:06:10
half 15 and 16 and a half probably a
00:06:12
little low in this middle range I could
00:06:15
understand somebody saying no Paul
00:06:16
that's wrong in fact I'm going to change
00:06:17
that myself I'm going to go with 14 16
00:06:22
and 18% now for free cash flow it's
00:06:25
about the same it's actually higher in
00:06:28
the last 10 years
00:06:30
and about the same in the last five
00:06:31
years this might just be a fluke so I'm
00:06:33
going to keep it the exact same PE now
00:06:36
guys 17 20 and
00:06:39
23 that's probably too low I'm actually
00:06:42
going to put it a little bit higher I'm
00:06:44
going to go 20 23 and 26 guys this is a
00:06:48
wonderful product they do very well if I
00:06:51
asked you to name the number one
00:06:53
chocolate brands in the world you'd
00:06:54
probably mention Hershey and a lot of
00:06:56
people would so that deserves a premium
00:06:58
with such a High return on invested
00:07:00
capital of 21% these are the things you
00:07:03
have to factor in and this is what makes
00:07:04
investing hard this is a subjective part
00:07:06
of investing but you've got to pay
00:07:08
better higher premiums for top quality
00:07:11
Brands and Moes Hershey's as part of
00:07:13
that and finally I put my 9% desired
00:07:16
return in guys this is basically to find
00:07:18
out what is my intrinsic value what do I
00:07:20
think the company is worth itself today
00:07:23
so I basically put the market return of
00:07:25
nine or 10% in there but remember you
00:07:28
should probably put a higher desired
00:07:30
return in there that will increase your
00:07:33
margin of safety and you need margin of
00:07:35
safety because we don't know the future
00:07:36
and we're humans and make mistake if
00:07:38
you're going to sit there and just get
00:07:39
the market return buy a lowcost ETF but
00:07:42
I want to do this to get a market price
00:07:44
for the company hit the analyze button
00:07:47
guys I got a low price of 100 high price
00:07:49
of 195 middle price of 140 all right so
00:07:53
I and by the way these returns down here
00:07:55
include the dividends so I look at it
00:07:57
saying I just got to be a littleit more
00:07:58
patient and I have on my watch list at
00:08:00
150 not to buy it there but to start
00:08:02
selling puts at lower prices stock
00:08:04
number two Celsius guys this is one of
00:08:07
the most common stocks I see talked
00:08:10
about in the community on Twitter
00:08:13
everything this company has come on the
00:08:15
scene but look at this all-time high of
00:08:18
$100 just back in March March 14th we're
00:08:21
seeing a lot of companies with all-time
00:08:22
highs on March 14th 52 we low just two
00:08:25
days ago of
00:08:26
$27.78 that is a 73
00:08:29
percent drop in stock prices I don't
00:08:32
want to hear it when people say I don't
00:08:33
think a Stock's going to fall that much
00:08:35
it can happen and it can happen very
00:08:37
quickly it happens all the time this is
00:08:40
a$7 billion doll company with an amazing
00:08:43
balance sheet how do I know that
00:08:45
Enterprise Value 6.5 billion it means
00:08:48
they essentially have a negative $500
00:08:50
million of debt which is basically a
00:08:52
positive $500 million of cash on their
00:08:54
books this poultry dividend yield now
00:08:56
here's the interesting part about this
00:08:58
company 5 years year free cash flow of
00:09:00
60 million one year of 170 million you
00:09:03
know what that means
00:09:05
growth so for me guys I'm going to
00:09:07
immedately tell you don't focus on this
00:09:08
five-year number this is useless the
00:09:10
fiveyear free cash flow is useless
00:09:12
because they're growing so much let's go
00:09:14
look at this free cash flow in here this
00:09:16
free cash flow by year lost 11 million
00:09:20
about a million bucks 2.8 lost 100
00:09:22
million made 100 million 123 and in the
00:09:24
last 12 months $170
00:09:27
million big I mean it was negative in
00:09:29
the first 5 years of this uh 10-year
00:09:31
chart so guys here's the eight pillars
00:09:33
on Celsius 4X four
00:09:35
checks 1.25 billion increase in Revenue
00:09:38
let a 200 million in profit and 165
00:09:41
million in free cash flow now remember
00:09:43
I'm ignoring the fiveyear numbers
00:09:45
because of how much they've grown it's
00:09:47
so skewed that way you can't possibly
00:09:49
hold them accountable for this shares
00:09:51
outstanding 4% increase not terrible I
00:09:54
prefer to see nothing but it's a fast
00:09:56
growing business I don't blame them for
00:09:58
issuing shares that may be expensive and
00:10:00
a low roic which doesn't bother me so
00:10:02
much because you look at the one year
00:10:05
and you have
00:10:06
15% remember the fiveyear numbers this
00:10:08
five-year RC is based on Five-Year free
00:10:10
cash flow it's insanely low so I'm not
00:10:13
worried about that at all now because
00:10:15
Celsius is now the third biggest player
00:10:18
in the US Energy Drink game now the
00:10:21
world as we've seen is getting healthier
00:10:22
in fact I think this year was the first
00:10:24
year that the US had a decrease in the
00:10:26
amount of obesity Celsius is right there
00:10:28
leading that char charge with zero sugar
00:10:30
as of Q3 2024 this brand is absolutely
00:10:34
crushing it making up 16% that's one in
00:10:37
six of all energy drink sales growth
00:10:40
globally now Red Bull and Monster
00:10:43
they're still top do top dogs no doubt
00:10:45
about that and Monsters has been one of
00:10:46
the best companies in the world when it
00:10:48
comes to stock price but since 2022
00:10:51
Celsius has been blowing past both them
00:10:52
in terms of volume growth you could say
00:10:55
that Celsius is the underdog that
00:10:57
suddenly got everyone talking and they
00:10:59
not stopping anytime soon 2024 has been
00:11:02
huge adding six new countries to their
00:11:05
distribution list Celsius is officially
00:11:08
Global guys but here's the kicker
00:11:10
despite this insane growth and killer
00:11:12
numbers their stock has taken that dive
00:11:14
down 73% from its high of $99 if you're
00:11:17
thinking longterm the question is is
00:11:20
this just a temporary crash in the
00:11:22
roller coaster ride of this Brand's
00:11:23
future remember this is a company that's
00:11:26
down 70% but let's look at their
00:11:30
quarterly Revenue 265 versus 384 oops
00:11:35
that's not good 401 versus
00:11:39
325 maybe the fundamentals are getting
00:11:41
worse this is a big drop in revenue from
00:11:44
third quarter 2023 to third quarter 2024
00:11:48
remember our goal here is to buy
00:11:50
companies that fundamentals are getting
00:11:51
better as the stock price Falls but here
00:11:54
we see a big drop in Revenue so guys the
00:11:57
question is why did this happen well
00:11:58
they came out and said that Pepsi
00:12:00
overstocked their inventory that could
00:12:02
be the case that very well could be the
00:12:04
case but is it an overstocking because
00:12:08
they just bought too much or is it
00:12:10
overstocking because demand really
00:12:11
faltered so for me yes the stock is down
00:12:14
a lot the question is are they going to
00:12:16
rebound here back to New highs because
00:12:18
look in June of 2024 402 versus 325
00:12:22
that's a huge increase that's a 25%
00:12:24
increase actually 20% to 25% increase in
00:12:28
Revenue to suddenly have a big drop the
00:12:30
next quarter maybe remember Guys these
00:12:33
drinks are very fickle on people who
00:12:36
love them and you see them all over the
00:12:37
place it's a very easy business to get
00:12:39
into it's not exactly hard for that one
00:12:41
so you want to be careful and also the
00:12:44
next time you see companies like this
00:12:45
flying high remember how quick it can
00:12:47
change they have announced that the
00:12:49
sales to Pepsi is down almost $120
00:12:51
million year-over year again they claim
00:12:54
it's an overstocking thing that tells me
00:12:56
they're claiming it is temporary it'll
00:12:58
be really important
00:12:59
to see if that's the cas to decide if
00:13:01
they're an honorable company that's
00:13:03
going to be honest with their investors
00:13:05
that's very important so what are
00:13:07
analyst estimates on this company well
00:13:09
analysts are enthused a dollar per share
00:13:12
here going to 274 here in the next four
00:13:14
years Big Time growth
00:13:16
170% Revenue growth 20% 18% 19% 35% 8
00:13:22
and a half% they have Revenue over about
00:13:24
doubling in the next four years so
00:13:27
analysts are still pretty positive about
00:13:28
this so it' be really interesting to see
00:13:30
what happens with that Pepsi
00:13:32
overstocking issue now obviously back to
00:13:35
stock analyzer to figure out what's the
00:13:37
right price to pay because now we have
00:13:39
to sit there and figure out
00:13:42
okay we're I'm going to make these
00:13:44
assumptions based on them being honest
00:13:46
about their Pepsi temporary issue I'm
00:13:48
going to make that assumption there okay
00:13:51
so I did 48 and 12% Revenue growth
00:13:54
considerably lower than their history
00:13:56
all right profit margin I did 1520 and
00:13:59
25% I started at 15 went to 20 might be
00:14:02
a little high guys might be a little
00:14:03
high because they've not really done 20%
00:14:06
but they have increasing the profit
00:14:08
margins so actually you know what I'm
00:14:10
going to be a little more conservative
00:14:11
here guys I'm going to go with 12 15 and
00:14:15
18% same with free cash flow PE I
00:14:19
remember why I did this and the last
00:14:20
time I did the stock analysis I was
00:14:22
trying to be overly enthused it was back
00:14:24
in April the stock was flying high so I
00:14:28
think that was the reason why I was
00:14:29
sitting there saying like listen be
00:14:30
careful here because there's a lot of
00:14:32
even I'm overly optimistic it still
00:14:34
looks a little risky so for
00:14:37
PE it's a I'll do
00:14:41
15 17 and
00:14:44
19 and then for my desired any return 9%
00:14:47
across the board guys you got to put
00:14:49
your margin of safety in here it's a
00:14:50
very easy business to get into a lot of
00:14:53
competitors and a lot of fickle
00:14:55
consumers out there who will change
00:14:56
Brands very quickly now before I get
00:14:58
into the numbers of that you may have
00:15:00
noticed I'm sure you look at the stock
00:15:02
analyzer tool look our community and
00:15:04
think to yourself gez that would really
00:15:05
help me a lot in analysis and it
00:15:07
absolutely does but if you go to our
00:15:09
everything money.com website you'll see
00:15:11
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00:15:12
the reason being is today's software
00:15:15
includes everything we have to offer for
00:15:17
stocks retirement and real estate
00:15:19
everything up here and more right but
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we're CH making changes behind the
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scenes so this offer is going to go away
00:15:25
very soon if you were with us from the
00:15:27
very beginning I built this software for
00:15:29
myself and it was an Excel sheet and
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people would ask in the comments how do
00:15:32
I get that Excel sheet we finally
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the software remember I was using it for
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myself before this software has helped
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me make my investment decisions for
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stocks and for real estate where I've
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bought $30 million in real estate in the
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last six months just based on using the
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I better serve you in our community
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and the community and I'm willing to bet
00:16:35
it'll be the best decision you've made
00:16:36
all year so let's hit the analyze button
00:16:40
here the Stock's currently at 30 bucks a
00:16:42
share so I see a low price of 12 high
00:16:45
price of 37 middle price of
00:16:48
21 guys the stock is down 73% it's a lot
00:16:52
and it's wonderful for me it's not such
00:16:54
an obvious screaming deal where I have
00:16:56
to sit there and go I got to jump on
00:16:57
this yes it's 73% % drop is awesome but
00:17:00
it just goes to show you how overpriced
00:17:01
it was at 100 stock number three a
00:17:04
highly highly volatile stock super micro
00:17:09
computer this thing has been all over
00:17:11
the board guys look at this all-time
00:17:13
high very close to our March 4 14th date
00:17:17
March 8th 2024 of
00:17:19
$123 the low was two days ago of 20
00:17:22
bucks guys that is an
00:17:25
86% drop in 250 days
00:17:30
and this is a stock that I'm sure that
00:17:33
if I was covering it back then people
00:17:35
would said look how stupid you are Paul
00:17:36
you don't get it maybe so but what's
00:17:39
happened lately ernston young one of the
00:17:41
biggest accounting firms in the world
00:17:43
one of the most reputable said we're out
00:17:46
we're going to stop auditing these guys
00:17:47
because these guys are unethical all
00:17:49
right so what's the deal with the
00:17:50
company is it possible they clean things
00:17:52
up yeah but the question is who are the
00:17:55
people going to clean it up guys this is
00:17:57
this super micr computer story is a Wild
00:17:59
Ride the company's absolutely been
00:18:01
crushing it in quotes over the past
00:18:03
decade you know back in 2014 they were
00:18:06
bringing in about 1.5 billion in Revenue
00:18:09
fast forward to today and they're
00:18:10
bringing in 11.8 billion in Revenue
00:18:13
earnings went from 54 million in 2014 to
00:18:16
over $1 billion in the last 12 months a
00:18:20
20x growth in the last 10 years on their
00:18:24
profit and get this super micro stock
00:18:27
went from just one .70 a share on
00:18:30
January 1st 2014 to that peak of 123
00:18:33
back in March of 2024 but it gets even
00:18:36
crazier in the Q4 of 2024 the company
00:18:39
posted a
00:18:41
jaw-dropping 143% revenue growth
00:18:43
year-over-year for the full year they've
00:18:46
already seen a 110% Revenue boost that's
00:18:49
some serious Rocket Fuel guys for their
00:18:51
business they're powering everything
00:18:52
from cloud infrastructure to Data
00:18:54
Centers and they are absolutely riding
00:18:56
this massive wave of AI growth but
00:18:59
remember this is exactly what happens
00:19:01
whenever there's some big Market all the
00:19:03
ancillary people around it will surge
00:19:05
with it they've been in the right place
00:19:07
at the right time so what's that problem
00:19:10
it started with those Auditors at
00:19:11
ernston Young they bailed on them due to
00:19:13
some serious disagreements over how
00:19:15
super micro was handling their books
00:19:17
then back in August Hindenberg research
00:19:20
The Big Short Selling research company
00:19:23
dropped a bombshell with a report
00:19:24
accusing the company of accounting fraud
00:19:26
and Hindenberg is not a company that
00:19:28
comes out there and just says it just to
00:19:30
be dicks they say it because they do a
00:19:32
lot of research and here's where things
00:19:34
get even more messy this is not super
00:19:37
micro's first time getting in hot water
00:19:38
back in 2018 they were nearly kicked off
00:19:41
the NASDAQ for failing to file financial
00:19:43
statements guys why is that why would a
00:19:46
company fail to file financial
00:19:47
statements their CFO should be in there
00:19:50
guys I have eight businesses upstairs I
00:19:53
have 30 bank accounts for these
00:19:54
businesses and guess what we reconcile
00:19:57
every single day yes it's not the same
00:19:58
as multi-billion dollar company and a
00:20:00
lot of people like my accountants think
00:20:02
I'm crazy for reconciling every single
00:20:03
day but the reason is the second or
00:20:06
quarter is not done I want six or seven
00:20:08
days and our numbers are done yes it's
00:20:10
different for a big company but to fail
00:20:12
to file financial statements go look at
00:20:14
when was last time that happened with
00:20:15
other major companies then in 2020 guys
00:20:18
the SEC came knocking after it was
00:20:20
discovered that super micro had
00:20:22
artificially inflated their earnings by
00:20:24
about $200 million let's put that in
00:20:27
perspective
00:20:29
in 2020 they did 3.34 billion $200
00:20:32
million extra in earnings look what they
00:20:35
a look they end up reporting 84 million
00:20:38
that was the adjusted number so they'
00:20:40
reported over $2 million extra the
00:20:43
company settled for 20 million but
00:20:44
here's the kicker three months later
00:20:46
they went and rehired the same
00:20:48
Executives who've been at the heart of
00:20:50
the fraud that's a bad look that's where
00:20:53
I get concerned a company can change but
00:20:55
you got to change with new people so
00:20:57
while super micros future appears to be
00:21:00
bright with AI booming and their Tech in
00:21:02
high demand the shadow of past mistakes
00:21:04
and the current accounting drama means
00:21:06
this roller coaster is probably far from
00:21:08
over you need to stay tuned on this one
00:21:10
now are you the kind of person who sits
00:21:12
there and says no risk or reward I don't
00:21:15
know but until they completely make over
00:21:18
their entire executive team even people
00:21:20
who probably are innocent to this you
00:21:22
got to start from scratch to show Wall
00:21:23
Street you're really serious about
00:21:25
change so I wonder what these analyst
00:21:27
estimates are if they've been updated
00:21:29
guys super micro still have this EPS
00:21:32
issue so guys right now is where I'd sit
00:21:34
there and go let's put it in stock
00:21:36
analyzer but we have verifiable reason
00:21:38
not to trust the numbers so I think for
00:21:40
myself I'm just a pass on this one and
00:21:43
I'm okay if the stock ends up going to
00:21:45
500 because they figure out their
00:21:46
accounting issues I'd rather wait for
00:21:48
the right company that I trust so guys
00:21:50
if you want to watch the next video on
00:21:52
top under valued stocks please wait for
00:21:54
it thank you for your time
