00:00:00
so it seems that if things get desperate
00:00:02
for Ukraine they could build a nuclear
00:00:05
bomb in just mere months the reason is
00:00:08
simple the reason is singular and that
00:00:10
reason is Putin this nuclear bomb plan
00:00:13
was presented to president zalinski by
00:00:16
Ukrainian Ministry of Defense in a
00:00:18
briefing paper so let's get into this
00:00:20
briefing paper see what the plans are
00:00:23
and then talk about if this is realistic
00:00:26
or just a speculation best of all we
00:00:28
already have Putin's reaction on this
00:00:31
that we covered once before but Putin
00:00:33
has basically come out and said that
00:00:36
he's strongly against Ukraine having any
00:00:38
kind of nukes though like always be sure
00:00:40
to hit the like button down below to
00:00:42
help us out with the algorithm and let's
00:00:44
begin now earlier just before the brick
00:00:46
Summit that happened in Kazan Russia
00:00:48
Putin was asked this exact question what
00:00:51
would Russia do if Ukraine pursued
00:00:53
nuclear weapons and this was his
00:00:56
response let's
00:00:57
listen this is another provocation it is
00:01:00
not difficult to create nuclear weapons
00:01:02
in the modern world I don't know if
00:01:04
Ukraine can do it now it's not so easy
00:01:06
for today's Ukraine but in general it's
00:01:09
there are no big difficulties there it
00:01:12
is obvious how to do it so this is a
00:01:15
dangerous provocation because any step
00:01:17
in this direction will meet the
00:01:19
appropriate reaction this is secondly
00:01:22
thirdly and most importantly the
00:01:24
political leadership of Ukraine has
00:01:26
repeatedly talked about it even before
00:01:29
the crisis went into a hot phase they
00:01:32
had already stated earlier that well
00:01:35
they stated so relatively mildly but
00:01:37
nevertheless they said that Ukraine
00:01:39
should have nuclear weapons such a
00:01:41
threat will get a corresponding reaction
00:01:43
from the Russian Federation as well I
00:01:46
can state right away that Russia will
00:01:48
not allow this under any circumstances
00:01:51
now another thing that's kind of a
00:01:52
coincident is the same day the Ukrainian
00:01:56
report got leaked was the same day NATO
00:01:58
military committed chair Rob Bowers
00:02:01
stated something in an interview or at
00:02:03
least the day that clip went viral on
00:02:05
social media and he was basically
00:02:07
explaining that the reason NATO troops
00:02:09
are not in Russia kicking Russian troops
00:02:11
butts is because Russia has nuclear
00:02:14
weapons if it wasn't for nuclear weapons
00:02:16
NATO troops would already be deployed
00:02:19
listen to it yourself I'm absolutely
00:02:20
sure if the Russians did not have
00:02:22
nuclear weapons we would have been in
00:02:25
Ukraine kicking them out we would have
00:02:30
but they have nuclear weapons so it's
00:02:31
not the same as in Afghanistan now let's
00:02:33
quickly go over the article now article
00:02:35
is a bit long and you can all go read it
00:02:38
at the times it's not paid you just need
00:02:40
a subscription so you give them your
00:02:42
email and they'll show you the report
00:02:43
but basically what the article says that
00:02:45
Ukraine has the capabilities to build a
00:02:47
bomb similar to the one that us dropped
00:02:49
on Nagasaki in just few months but
00:02:52
Ukraine doesn't have the capabilities to
00:02:54
enrich uranium to create a nuclear
00:02:56
reaction so they will likely use
00:02:58
plutonium that was extracted from fuel
00:03:01
rods Ukraine still has nine operational
00:03:04
nuclear reactors and they can get the
00:03:06
fuel rods from these reactors but then
00:03:08
later on they clarified that Ukrainian
00:03:11
would still need a reprocessing plant to
00:03:13
basically convert this plutonium into
00:03:15
something that they can use in a nuclear
00:03:17
bomb and that plant will take years to
00:03:20
build so because of this chances of
00:03:22
Ukraine building a nuclear weapon
00:03:24
especially one in secret is very very
00:03:26
low on top of that I don't think they
00:03:29
have a political will to build a nuclear
00:03:31
weapon cuz it might have some allies
00:03:34
feeling some way if more and more
00:03:36
countries get nuclear weapons cuz then
00:03:38
what's stopping other countries for
00:03:40
arguing the same thing that they need
00:03:42
nuclear weapons for their own security
00:03:44
what's more likely is this may be a
00:03:47
negotiating leverage for Ukraine where
00:03:49
they may be sending a message to the
00:03:52
Future Administration or even Russia
00:03:54
that they have the capabilities to make
00:03:56
nuclear weapon if they don't have proper
00:03:59
security guarantees in fact this is
00:04:01
something we talked about with Colonel
00:04:03
hus B and Gordon this morning and here's
00:04:06
the clip well I think I think they two
00:04:08
issues here that that we should perhaps
00:04:10
unpack um you know first first of all
00:04:13
you know they are asking because of the
00:04:16
concern that usaid might might um uh
00:04:19
might might be withdrawn or at least you
00:04:21
know um paired down and that that's a
00:04:24
concern for everybody um you know
00:04:26
especially this side of the pond I could
00:04:28
tell you um um and you know in the
00:04:32
reporting the times and and other
00:04:34
reports around today are also sort of
00:04:36
saying well you know zalinski mentioned
00:04:39
this a few weeks ago and some of his
00:04:41
team are saying well you know we could
00:04:43
perhaps build a s small nuclear um
00:04:46
weapon that would we could take out
00:04:48
airfields in you know in Russia and
00:04:50
stuff um which which to me is he's
00:04:54
really saying he's really aiming very
00:04:56
much at the US British and French
00:04:59
government saying well I wouldn't need a
00:05:01
nuclear weapon if we had Storm Shadow
00:05:03
missiles attacks and scalp and Taurus
00:05:07
missiles that I could fire into Russia
00:05:09
sort of thing so I think that seems to
00:05:11
be the Strategic message coming out of
00:05:14
ke but if we look at the practicality of
00:05:16
them building a nuclear weapon well
00:05:19
until
00:05:20
1994 um Ukraine was a nuclear Nation you
00:05:24
know when it was still part of the
00:05:25
Soviet block you know they had 1,700
00:05:27
nuclear missiles uh which is
00:05:30
about five times what the UK has and
00:05:32
it's about a fifth of what the US has so
00:05:35
you know very significant player um the
00:05:38
uh Budapest memorandum signed between
00:05:41
the US UK and Russia basically took
00:05:44
those nuclear weapons off Ukraine uh on
00:05:47
the Proviso that those three countries
00:05:49
would ensure the security of Ukraine now
00:05:52
obviously that hasn't happened so one
00:05:55
can see why zalinski the ukrainians are
00:05:59
pretty hacked off by it um so when it
00:06:02
comes on to the practicalities of a
00:06:04
nuclear device well I think everybody
00:06:07
knows that um Ukraine from a nuclear
00:06:09
power situation is massive you know
00:06:13
before the war 60% of their power came
00:06:15
from nuclear they've got the largest
00:06:17
nuclear power station in Europe second
00:06:19
largest in the world at zapara so
00:06:22
they've got a lot of nuclear Isotopes a
00:06:24
lot of nuclear material they could use
00:06:26
um the report published that the times
00:06:28
talks about is the ukrainians saying
00:06:31
they're going to use plutonium
00:06:33
239 um and they can fashion it into a A
00:06:37
small basic nuclear weapon about a a
00:06:41
tenth of the size of the fat boy which
00:06:43
was the um US nuclear bomb that was
00:06:46
dropped on Nagasaki back in
00:06:49
1944 that bomb had a yield of about 21
00:06:52
kilotons which is
00:06:54
21,000 tons of conventional explosive
00:06:57
what the ukrainians are saying they
00:06:59
could do one maybe one or two kilotons
00:07:01
so 1 or 2,000 tons of conventional
00:07:03
explosive that is still a massive bang
00:07:07
um now could could they do it well
00:07:09
they've got a lot of plutonium that they
00:07:11
could use in fact the the fat boy Bal
00:07:15
only had 6 kg of plutonium it's thought
00:07:18
Ukraine's probably got seven tons of the
00:07:20
stuff however this is plutonium spent
00:07:23
fuel from the nuclear power stations um
00:07:26
in order to make it viable it would need
00:07:28
to be reprocessed in other words all the
00:07:30
impurities and other chemicals around it
00:07:32
would need to be removed to do that you
00:07:34
need a reprocessing factory which the
00:07:37
ukrainians currently don't have there
00:07:40
was a study done in the US in the 70s
00:07:42
about the practicalities of making a
00:07:44
small nuclear device of plutonium the
00:07:47
conclusion was it was possible um there
00:07:50
are reports that it would take the
00:07:52
ukrainians 5 years to build a re
00:07:54
reprocessing plant but there are other
00:07:56
reports saying it could they could do it
00:07:57
in four to six months so I think in
00:08:00
basic term and the other piece is one
00:08:03
has to assume that with all the history
00:08:05
of nuclear weapons that Ukraine's had
00:08:08
there must be a lot of corporate
00:08:09
knowledge there'll still be some
00:08:10
scientists who know what to do so I
00:08:12
think if you put all that together yeah
00:08:14
it is possible that Ukraine in 6 to 12
00:08:17
months could produce a small viable
00:08:20
nuclear device based on plutonium that
00:08:23
could yield about one or two kilotons
00:08:25
they probably have missiles and drones
00:08:27
that they could launch it on
00:08:29
but to me it's all it's a messaging
00:08:32
thing um you know if if if you stop
00:08:37
helping us we're going to have to go
00:08:38
nuclear and and absolutely nobody wants
00:08:41
that because you know presumably if
00:08:44
Ukraine fires a nuclear weapon into
00:08:46
Russia Russia's going to far back
00:08:48
nuclear weapons you know with a lot you
00:08:51
know a lot lot more which could then
00:08:54
create a sort of a chain reaction to use
00:08:57
a nuclear expression that would
00:08:59
reverberate around the world so yeah I
00:09:02
personally hope that um our governments
00:09:04
listen to seninsky and make sure that he
00:09:07
has everything he needs to do go back to
00:09:09
our first point you know if they can
00:09:11
still hold that ground in KK by
00:09:14
Christmas and Russia runs out of manpow
00:09:17
then then the the ceasefire that um
00:09:21
president Trump is talking about uh can
00:09:23
happen on zelinsky's terms not on
00:09:25
Putin's terms the big reason this topic
00:09:28
has come up is because many around the
00:09:30
world many people who are pro Ukrainian
00:09:32
are feeling a little uneasy since Trump
00:09:35
was elected president because he's
00:09:37
unpredictable and many believe that he
00:09:39
might try to force a peace deal on
00:09:41
Ukrainian that ukrainians might not be a
00:09:43
fan of to fulfill his campaign promises
00:09:46
now this is something we talked about
00:09:48
with Ben Hodes General Ben Hodes in our
00:09:50
most recent podcast so let's listen to
00:09:52
that and then we'll get into zalinski
00:09:54
denying that Ukraine has no plans to get
00:09:56
nuclear weapons I do believe that uh
00:10:00
President elect Trump thinks that the
00:10:02
United States has gotten a bad deal I
00:10:04
mean if if you think in terms of like a
00:10:06
a real estate guy or business guy that
00:10:09
that we've gotten a bad deal now I
00:10:11
believe that uh even though our European
00:10:14
allies have not many of them have not
00:10:17
lived up to their uh obligations
00:10:20
especially some of the most wealthy ones
00:10:21
like Germany and France and Italy and
00:10:24
the Netherlands and Norway and Canada um
00:10:28
the fact is is it's still in our our
00:10:31
interest our advantage to be the leader
00:10:33
in NATO because of the access we have in
00:10:35
Europe what that means for us in the
00:10:37
Middle East in Africa and and because we
00:10:39
need allies we don't have enough
00:10:41
capacity to do everything
00:10:43
ourself um around the world we need
00:10:45
allies and most of our best and most
00:10:47
reliable allies come from Europe as well
00:10:50
as Canada and Australia Japan and South
00:10:53
Korea but it is a fair
00:10:56
criticism for the president to say hey
00:10:58
we've you guys have been able to have
00:11:00
these enormous uh wealthy um social
00:11:03
systems and and health care and all
00:11:05
these things for your people because
00:11:07
you're not spending money on defense the
00:11:09
US is doing it for you that's
00:11:11
unacceptable to the American people and
00:11:12
I think that's why Mr Trump talks about
00:11:14
you know this is not that the the United
00:11:17
States has not gotten a fair deal here
00:11:21
and that animates him that animates his
00:11:23
his uh supporters and so um this is
00:11:27
where I think it would be wise for for
00:11:30
Germany and other European leaders to
00:11:32
say Mr
00:11:34
President don't turn your back on us but
00:11:37
we I guarantee you we will do this and
00:11:39
this and this um because we need
00:11:42
American leadership we need American
00:11:44
presence just like you need German
00:11:47
French Dutch British polish um
00:11:50
capabilities we will do that and and so
00:11:53
I think there is room and opportunity if
00:11:56
you've got the right leadership in
00:11:57
Europe to act actually move towards
00:12:01
changing that perception of the US not
00:12:04
getting a good deal and uh they could
00:12:06
take pressure off the United States
00:12:08
actually so that we can focus on China I
00:12:11
think Europe being proactive instead of
00:12:14
complaining about Trump or the us or
00:12:18
ringing their hands would be a a
00:12:21
positive development YouTube is still
00:12:23
not a fan of lot of topics we cover and
00:12:25
that means the videos get restricted and
00:12:27
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00:12:29
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00:12:32
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00:12:34
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00:12:36
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00:12:38
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00:13:01
support is greatly greatly appreciated
00:13:04
Ukraine wants nuclear weapons to protect
00:13:07
itself against Russia at least that was
00:13:10
the news all day yesterday because of
00:13:12
what zalinski said watch it
00:13:15
yourself so how can we believe in this
00:13:18
document and how can we trust all the
00:13:20
partners who guaranteed the protection
00:13:22
of our territorial integrity and
00:13:24
sovereignty the answer is very simple
00:13:27
does it work no this document does not
00:13:30
work do the other major Partners
00:13:33
agreements with Russia work no these
00:13:36
were not only agreements between Ukraine
00:13:37
and Russia but also between Ukraine and
00:13:40
all its Partners so in general all these
00:13:43
agreements did not work out which of
00:13:46
these big countries all the nuclear
00:13:48
Powers were affected all of them no only
00:13:52
Ukraine who gave away the nuclear
00:13:54
weapons all of them no only one who
00:13:59
Ukraine who is at War today Ukraine and
00:14:03
so it turns out that in a conversation
00:14:06
with Donald Trump I told him it works
00:14:08
out this way what is the solution or
00:14:11
Ukraine will have nuclear weapons and
00:14:13
then it will be a defense for us or we
00:14:16
should have some kind of Alliance NATO
00:14:18
we do not know any effective alliances
00:14:21
today the NATO countries are not at War
00:14:23
today NATO members are not at war in
00:14:26
NATO countries people are all alive
00:14:28
thank God and that is why we choose NATO
00:14:31
not nuclear weapons we are choosing
00:14:35
NATO now as every media was reporting on
00:14:38
this claiming that zalinsky just said
00:14:40
Ukraine wants nukes Putin came right out
00:14:44
to say that Russia is not going to
00:14:46
accept it I'll show you guys that in
00:14:48
just a second but first like always be
00:14:50
sure to hit the like button down below
00:14:52
our videos criticizing Russia are
00:14:55
sometimes downloaded by Russian bots so
00:14:57
your likes help us out tremendously in
00:14:59
the algorithm now first I do want to
00:15:01
provide some background as to what
00:15:03
zalinski just said he talks about the
00:15:06
Budapest memorandum it was signed by the
00:15:08
US UK and Russia all three countries
00:15:11
provided Ukraine with security
00:15:13
guarantees in return for Ukraine
00:15:15
returning the nuclear bombs to nuclear
00:15:17
weapons that it had from Soviet eras you
00:15:20
see when Soviet Union fell apart there
00:15:23
were four countries that inherited the
00:15:25
whole nuclear stockpile one of them
00:15:28
being Russia and other three were
00:15:29
Ukraine Belarus and Kazakhstan now
00:15:32
Belarus and Kazakhstan didn't have much
00:15:34
to begin with but they also quickly
00:15:36
returned everything to Russia but
00:15:38
Ukraine was little hesitant and on top
00:15:40
of that Ukraine had the third largest
00:15:43
stock bile of nuclear weapons after us
00:15:46
and Russia now Ukraine didn't want to
00:15:49
give this up they were actually having
00:15:50
debates in their Parliament because the
00:15:53
officials strongly believed that if they
00:15:56
were to relinquish the nuclear weapons
00:15:58
they would likely come under attack by
00:16:00
Russia with benefit of hindsight safe to
00:16:03
say they were exactly on point but at
00:16:07
that point us and the West Was extremely
00:16:09
worried about all this nuclear stockpile
00:16:12
that Ukraine had mainly because what was
00:16:14
going on in Yugoslavia as Yugoslavia was
00:16:18
falling apart us didn't want Ukraine to
00:16:21
become another Yugoslavia with nuclear
00:16:24
weapons so it pushed heavily for Ukraine
00:16:27
to give up its nukes in return us UK and
00:16:31
Russia gave Ukraine security guarantees
00:16:34
if Ukrainian borders were to be breached
00:16:37
everyone involved will provide Ukraine
00:16:39
with assistance to maintain its
00:16:42
sovereignty so that's exactly what
00:16:44
president zalinski is referring to if
00:16:47
Russia didn't respect the document is
00:16:49
signed at Budapest memorandum how can
00:16:52
Ukraine expect Russia to follow any
00:16:54
future peace deal that is signed that's
00:16:56
why President zalinski says only way for
00:16:59
a country like Ukraine to be safe from
00:17:01
Russia is to either have nukes or be in
00:17:03
NATO and then he goes on to add that
00:17:06
Ukraine doesn't want nukes it chooses
00:17:09
the NATO path it wants to be in NATO
00:17:12
here listen to the last part again cuz I
00:17:14
really want to emphasize this he says
00:17:16
this in the end in the
00:17:18
clip in NATO countries people are all
00:17:21
alive thank God and that is why we
00:17:24
choose and that is why we choose NATO
00:17:27
not nuclear weapons
00:17:29
we are choosing NATO now of course Putin
00:17:32
was not going to let this news go to
00:17:34
waste he used it again to remind the
00:17:36
West that Russia is a superpower here
00:17:39
listen to it
00:17:41
yourself this is another provocation it
00:17:44
is not difficult to create nuclear
00:17:46
weapons in the modern world I don't know
00:17:48
if Ukraine can do it now it's not so
00:17:50
easy for today's Ukraine but in general
00:17:53
it's there are no big difficulties there
00:17:56
it is obvious how to do it so this is a
00:17:59
dangerous provocation because any step
00:18:01
in this direction will meet the
00:18:03
appropriate reaction this is secondly
00:18:06
thirdly and most importantly the
00:18:09
political leadership of Ukraine has
00:18:10
repeatedly talked about it even before
00:18:13
the crisis went into a hot phase they
00:18:16
had already stated earlier that well
00:18:19
they stated so relatively mildly but
00:18:21
nevertheless they said that Ukraine
00:18:23
should have nuclear weapons such a
00:18:25
threat will get a corresponding reaction
00:18:28
from the Russian Federation as well I
00:18:30
can state right away that Russia will
00:18:32
not allow this under any circumstances
00:18:35
but at the end of the day Ukraine was
00:18:37
never saying that it's pursuing nuclear
00:18:39
weapons sininsky was just recalling a
00:18:42
conversation he had with former
00:18:43
president Trump and that's why he used
00:18:46
the word nukes at the end of the day
00:18:48
even end of the clip he says that we
00:18:50
want NATO Ukraine wants NATO and that's
00:18:53
the path they choose but just a day
00:18:56
after or maybe the same day I'm not sure
00:18:57
but the first spee was at the EU Summit
00:19:00
but at the NATO Summit in the same city
00:19:02
he got asked this during a press
00:19:04
conference and this is what he had to
00:19:06
say um Mr President you just made it
00:19:09
clear at the EU Summit that the question
00:19:11
of nuclear weapons would arise for
00:19:13
Ukraine if it cannot become a NATO
00:19:15
member so in this context can you tell
00:19:18
us how long it would take for Ukraine to
00:19:20
build a nuclear bomb and a question to
00:19:23
the Secretary General would you
00:19:25
understand if Ukraine were to build a
00:19:26
nuclear B uh bomb if it cannot become a
00:19:29
NATO member thank you you you sometimes
00:19:33
we create ourselves problems now you
00:19:37
began to do it so we never
00:19:41
spoke about that we are preparing to
00:19:45
create nuclear weapon or something like
00:19:48
this I said that when Budapest
00:19:51
memorandum was signed by very
00:19:56
honorable nuclear
00:19:58
very powerful nuclear countries there
00:20:01
was written that Ukraine gives nuclear
00:20:05
weapon and Ukraine will have from these
00:20:09
very respectable countries including
00:20:13
those time Russia China United States
00:20:17
including them yes that we will have our
00:20:21
secured territorial integrity and
00:20:23
sovereignty that what I
00:20:26
said and I said so it meant that we gave
00:20:30
nuclear and the these people who've been
00:20:33
Partners those time they had to give us
00:20:37
security guarantees and if after that
00:20:39
Putin began this occupation not once
00:20:43
during all these years during the
00:20:45
revolutions during 10 last years two
00:20:48
times during last 10 years it means that
00:20:52
it's not very good umbrella for our
00:20:56
security that's why I said I don't have
00:20:58
alter alternative except NATO that was
00:21:02
my signal but we don't do nuclear web
00:21:07
please don't move these
00:21:09
messages now important to note during
00:21:12
the Budapest memorandum China and France
00:21:14
were not part of it they didn't sign
00:21:16
that document but they did provide
00:21:18
Ukraine assurances in a separate deal it
00:21:21
wasn't as strong that deal compared to
00:21:23
the Budapest memorandum but it was there
00:21:26
and that's why he brought up China too
00:21:28
another interesting story here when
00:21:30
Ukraine did have nuclear weapons they
00:21:32
just had the physical nuclear weapons
00:21:34
they did not have the codes to launch
00:21:37
them the cods were still in Moscow or
00:21:40
the central of Soviet Union wherever
00:21:42
that was and Ukraine didn't have it
00:21:43
Russia had it but it was pretty much
00:21:46
expected that if Ukraine kept the
00:21:48
weapons they could have figured out a
00:21:49
way to use them either they could just
00:21:51
take away the Warhead attach it to
00:21:53
something else or somehow some way they
00:21:55
could have figured it out now of course
00:21:57
Ukraine has made needed abundant to
00:21:59
clear they don't want to promote this
00:22:02
nuclear fearmongering but you know one
00:22:04
country that is promoting a nuclear
00:22:06
fearmongering it's Russia every time any
00:22:09
question comes up on how West should
00:22:11
help Ukraine win this war or give them a
00:22:14
Fighting Chance in This war against
00:22:16
Russia who's just using everything at
00:22:18
their disposal except nuclear weapons
00:22:20
the whole Russian government is quick to
00:22:23
remind the world that Russia has nukes
00:22:25
and it's not afraid to use it this is
00:22:27
something we call recently so let's get
00:22:30
into that segment but before that as
00:22:33
this story is living proof sometimes
00:22:35
traditional media gets geopolitical
00:22:38
story just so wrong that's because most
00:22:41
of them are not good at properly
00:22:43
covering important geopolitical news
00:22:46
that's why we launched Global Recaps a
00:22:48
geopolitical newsletter that covers
00:22:50
important news in a simplified manner
00:22:53
every evening we send out an email
00:22:55
directly to your inbox covering
00:22:57
important stories that you you can read
00:22:59
in just few minutes trust me I do it
00:23:01
every single day best of all this is
00:23:04
completely free and you can sign up
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00:23:14
live in
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