Boot Camp Day 47: Back Testing CPI

00:17:43
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S-scwzKRP-8

Ringkasan

TLDR在视频中，讲者与Discord群体一起进行市场回测，重点分析CPI新闻发布对交易的影响。他们查看每日、每小时和每分钟的价格结构，以识别是否可以进入交易，并讨论了在新闻发布的情况下为何不建议交易。讲者强调了使用不同时间框架的重要性，指出高时间框架对市场更具指导性。讲者也分享了个人的交易策略，如识别公平价值缺口、市场高低点及潜在的交易机会。最后，讲者预告将在未来的会议中分享更多的交易技巧和分析。

Takeaways

  • 📈 使用历史数据进行回测以识别交易机会
  • 📉 避免在CPI发布时交易，风险增加
  • 🔍 分析多时间框架，以确认趋势
  • 📊 高时间框架具有更高的市场指导性
  • 📌 公平价值缺口可能成为重要支撑或阻力位
  • 📉 在流动性低时谨慎交易
  • 📅 直播教学将于PPI发布时进行

Garis waktu

  • 00:00:00 - 00:05:00

    在 Zoom 和 Discord 上进行无交易的分享，强调回测的重要性。讨论了时间框架的市场趋势，指出日线、四小时线和一小时线均看涨，尽管因 CPI 新闻的影响，市场反应不明显，提醒观众谨慎交易于新闻公布时，强调以往的市场数据和结构变化对决策的影响。

  • 00:05:00 - 00:10:00

    分析英镑与日元（GBP/JPY）时，明确 bearish 的趋势，并依托于周线的结构确认，提出黑人和伦敦盘的关键水平，对潜在交易信号进行标注，强调在市场有明确方向时交易的必要性。

  • 00:10:00 - 00:17:43

    对黄金（Gold）市场的分析显示混合信号，尽管总体趋势是 bearish，但在操作上不建议参与因市场存在大量相悖的信号，提醒观众在运作中应随时注意市场波动及新闻影响，计划在 PPI 发布时进行下一次实战分析。

Peta Pikiran

Video Tanya Jawab

  • 什么是CPI？

    CPI是消费者物价指数，通常用于衡量通货膨胀。

  • 为何不建议在CPI发布时交易？

    因为通常情况下，市场在新闻发布时已经做出了重大变动，流动性较低，导致交易风险增加。

  • 如何进行回测？

    可以通过分析历史价格数据，识别市场结构变化来进行回测。

  • 每日交易中如何处理不同时间框架的走势？

    高时间框架的趋势通常具有更高的确认度，应优先考虑。

  • 什么是公平价值缺口（Fair Value Gap）？

    公平价值缺口是指价格运行过程中快速移动留下的空白区域，通常会被价格重新测试。

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Teks
en
Gulir Otomatis:
  • 00:00:00
    let's get started all right so we are
  • 00:00:02
    currently on Zoom with the Discord we
  • 00:00:05
    did not trade today
  • 00:00:07
    um but a lot of people asked for this
  • 00:00:09
    um
  • 00:00:10
    this boot camp video so we're kind of
  • 00:00:12
    doing it hand in hand okay we're kind of
  • 00:00:14
    like back testing with the Discord
  • 00:00:18
    um
  • 00:00:18
    uh uh so
  • 00:00:21
    we'll get started on this and since we
  • 00:00:23
    didn't trade today
  • 00:00:25
    um honestly figured it's a great time to
  • 00:00:27
    do this so with that being said we'll go
  • 00:00:29
    ahead and just put out our lines
  • 00:00:32
    um
  • 00:00:35
    so and Mark it opened okay
  • 00:00:39
    um
  • 00:00:42
    and yeah we can go ahead and get started
  • 00:00:45
    all right so
  • 00:00:46
    obviously this is going to be in
  • 00:00:48
    hindsight but that's how I like doing
  • 00:00:51
    back testing anyways if you guys have
  • 00:00:52
    seen the back testing boot camp video
  • 00:00:55
    that's kind of how I like to do it um I
  • 00:00:57
    like to just do like spotting things and
  • 00:00:59
    like how we could have traded
  • 00:01:01
    um so we'll go ahead and do that
  • 00:01:03
    obviously weekly bullish daily bullish
  • 00:01:06
    we recently came into
  • 00:01:10
    this daily order clock and then we see
  • 00:01:13
    price rise from there okay we finally
  • 00:01:15
    got a breakup structure to the upside on
  • 00:01:17
    the four hour
  • 00:01:19
    um with this Candlestick right here push
  • 00:01:21
    past that all right um on then on the
  • 00:01:24
    one hour we continue to be bullish all
  • 00:01:27
    the way up okay so pre-market we were
  • 00:01:29
    kind of permabolish
  • 00:01:31
    um on every single time frame we did
  • 00:01:32
    have CPI today
  • 00:01:34
    um any draws on liquidity not really
  • 00:01:38
    um besides like this 15 minute high but
  • 00:01:41
    even then not so much what can we see we
  • 00:01:44
    have this imbalance right here where we
  • 00:01:47
    see price honestly reacting off of right
  • 00:01:49
    now
  • 00:01:51
    um
  • 00:01:51
    if we go on like a higher time frame
  • 00:01:54
    let's see if there's anything over here
  • 00:01:56
    not much going on over here so again
  • 00:01:59
    this is kind of why I like to avoid CPI
  • 00:02:01
    days
  • 00:02:02
    um because we get the this is when news
  • 00:02:04
    came out
  • 00:02:05
    right we see price rip
  • 00:02:08
    um and then we make this imbalance we
  • 00:02:10
    see price draw towards their
  • 00:02:12
    um
  • 00:02:13
    right after market opens we fall okay
  • 00:02:18
    um I guess you could call this break
  • 00:02:19
    structure
  • 00:02:23
    filling this order block rallies into
  • 00:02:25
    boom this imbalance and then we get a
  • 00:02:28
    break of structure to the upside off of
  • 00:02:30
    this Candlestick boom this is something
  • 00:02:32
    that you probably could have entered
  • 00:02:33
    long off of right because the four hour
  • 00:02:35
    bullish one hour bullish daily bullish
  • 00:02:40
    um and but the reason why I don't like
  • 00:02:41
    trading on CPI because most the time the
  • 00:02:43
    move has already been made see how this
  • 00:02:45
    is just low volume and it's just not
  • 00:02:48
    really moving
  • 00:02:50
    um
  • 00:02:51
    yeah it like this is just
  • 00:02:55
    um it's not moving uh or it's it is
  • 00:02:58
    moving but it's barely right compared to
  • 00:03:01
    right CPI comes out
  • 00:03:04
    makes a 27 point Move versus like when
  • 00:03:08
    our
  • 00:03:09
    or even from our entry
  • 00:03:12
    up to where we would be at now four
  • 00:03:15
    point move or even from Boom the
  • 00:03:17
    imbalance up till here
  • 00:03:19
    12 point move right versus just that one
  • 00:03:21
    CPI candle this is usually the majority
  • 00:03:24
    of the move so that's why I don't really
  • 00:03:25
    like trading on news especially if it
  • 00:03:27
    comes out
  • 00:03:28
    um pre-market because odds are one
  • 00:03:31
    market does come back and get open like
  • 00:03:34
    this probably would have been the trade
  • 00:03:36
    that we saw today
  • 00:03:38
    but it wasn't within our bias so this is
  • 00:03:40
    like a perfect example of how of a time
  • 00:03:42
    that we wouldn't want to trade right I
  • 00:03:44
    saw a lot of comments also asking me hey
  • 00:03:46
    like can you go over trades that you
  • 00:03:47
    wouldn't want to take this is a perfect
  • 00:03:49
    example of this why because our daily
  • 00:03:51
    bias was bullish the four hours bullish
  • 00:03:53
    the one hour is bullish 15 minute at the
  • 00:03:56
    time was bullish okay and then we break
  • 00:03:58
    structure the downside on the five
  • 00:04:00
    minute yes we come into this order block
  • 00:04:01
    and then continue
  • 00:04:03
    but it was short-lived right we just it
  • 00:04:05
    was a retrace for the hourly time frame
  • 00:04:09
    um
  • 00:04:10
    you know what what other things can we
  • 00:04:12
    use and Confluence with this
  • 00:04:15
    boom equilibrium it came within there
  • 00:04:19
    um
  • 00:04:21
    that's uh and that's and that's pretty
  • 00:04:23
    much it so
  • 00:04:25
    that's how I would have traded the s p I
  • 00:04:28
    probably wouldn't have traded at all and
  • 00:04:29
    if I did take a trade it would have been
  • 00:04:31
    a long off of this five minute break
  • 00:04:35
    um
  • 00:04:36
    we did have this 15 minute break of
  • 00:04:38
    structure to the upside right over here
  • 00:04:40
    continuation showing continuation on the
  • 00:04:43
    hourly this is something that I always
  • 00:04:45
    talk about so like when you get a break
  • 00:04:46
    of structure let's say on like the 15
  • 00:04:47
    minute
  • 00:04:49
    let's say we get a breaker structure to
  • 00:04:51
    the downside on the 15 minute but we're
  • 00:04:52
    in an uptrend on the hourly odds are
  • 00:04:55
    that break of structure is going to be a
  • 00:04:56
    retrace for the hourly see how retrace
  • 00:04:59
    on the hourly 15 minute break of
  • 00:05:01
    structure
  • 00:05:02
    five minute okay very similar right if
  • 00:05:05
    we get a break of structure on the five
  • 00:05:06
    minute usually a retrace if if right if
  • 00:05:10
    they're if they're contradictory right
  • 00:05:11
    if the 15 minute is breaking structure
  • 00:05:13
    to the downside and the hourly is
  • 00:05:15
    bullish it's probably going to be a
  • 00:05:16
    retrace if the five minutes breaking
  • 00:05:18
    structure the downside and the 15
  • 00:05:20
    minutes bullish probably going to be a
  • 00:05:21
    retrace not every single time because
  • 00:05:24
    there's liquidity sweeps and there's
  • 00:05:25
    change of Market Market structure and
  • 00:05:27
    Direction
  • 00:05:29
    um but it's just something to take note
  • 00:05:30
    of right so like on the S P we had a
  • 00:05:33
    perfect example of this over here right
  • 00:05:35
    we got a break of structure to the
  • 00:05:37
    downside on The Daily and on the weekly
  • 00:05:40
    it was just a retrace
  • 00:05:42
    um
  • 00:05:43
    so
  • 00:05:45
    that's always something to keep in mind
  • 00:05:47
    that's something I've I've learned same
  • 00:05:48
    thing with like the hourly you see
  • 00:05:50
    breaker structure the downside on the
  • 00:05:51
    hourly odds are to PL probably be a
  • 00:05:53
    reach race on the four hour
  • 00:05:54
    okay that's why higher Thai friends hold
  • 00:05:57
    higher power
  • 00:05:59
    within the market okay so that's the s p
  • 00:06:01
    kind of aim botted down we'll go ahead
  • 00:06:03
    and move right on over to gbpj py now
  • 00:06:24
    boom
  • 00:06:31
    boom Okay so
  • 00:06:34
    Forex track kind of marked these out
  • 00:06:37
    okay but first let's go over daily bias
  • 00:06:40
    okay so we again this is a great example
  • 00:06:42
    bro structure to the downside on The
  • 00:06:44
    Daily
  • 00:06:45
    we already seen this first bullish or
  • 00:06:47
    sorry first bearish candle on the weekly
  • 00:06:50
    we see the break of structure okay boom
  • 00:06:52
    we're we're bearish we're bearish daily
  • 00:06:55
    bias
  • 00:06:57
    um and we're retracing on the weekly
  • 00:06:58
    okay so this is something where like the
  • 00:07:01
    weekly our retracement tools are very
  • 00:07:03
    beneficial right what do we have here
  • 00:07:04
    for Value Gap where price can likely
  • 00:07:06
    draw towards
  • 00:07:08
    we have
  • 00:07:10
    equilibrium which is right right around
  • 00:07:13
    that fair value gap which price can draw
  • 00:07:14
    towards
  • 00:07:16
    um
  • 00:07:18
    that's kind of like all I see there but
  • 00:07:21
    moving forward right we see the daily
  • 00:07:23
    moving down let's go into the four hours
  • 00:07:25
    see what we see
  • 00:07:29
    um not much on the four hour still
  • 00:07:31
    bearish bias if we head over to the one
  • 00:07:33
    hour not much again still bearish bias
  • 00:07:35
    so every single thing is telling us
  • 00:07:36
    bearish including the weekly because
  • 00:07:38
    we're retracing down into those areas so
  • 00:07:41
    what could we have done today let's go
  • 00:07:43
    ahead and Mark out those levels what was
  • 00:07:45
    this Asian session
  • 00:07:49
    I got the Asian session High
  • 00:07:53
    and then this is London session
  • 00:08:00
    London session High
  • 00:08:02
    um and then we also have the
  • 00:08:06
    the sort of London session law right
  • 00:08:08
    there not really
  • 00:08:10
    okay so we don't see this get high get
  • 00:08:12
    pushed into during London session
  • 00:08:15
    um we do see the London session High get
  • 00:08:17
    pushed up into during New York session
  • 00:08:19
    barely hits it whether or not yeah
  • 00:08:23
    you know whether or not you consider
  • 00:08:25
    this valid or not
  • 00:08:28
    um that's up to you but you do end up
  • 00:08:30
    getting that
  • 00:08:33
    breaker structure to the downside okay
  • 00:08:35
    you can short purely off of that or wait
  • 00:08:38
    for price to react off of
  • 00:08:41
    the order block right off this candle
  • 00:08:43
    okay
  • 00:08:45
    short position stop above there where
  • 00:08:48
    can you target previous draws so we've
  • 00:08:50
    like that as they draw
  • 00:08:52
    um you'd have to go into a higher time
  • 00:08:54
    frame to move over here to see what else
  • 00:08:56
    you you could do
  • 00:08:58
    you do like the top of this thing as
  • 00:08:59
    like an order block that hasn't been hit
  • 00:09:02
    yet
  • 00:09:03
    and then you could do like boom
  • 00:09:04
    liquidity here liquidity here and you
  • 00:09:06
    can also use just like
  • 00:09:09
    the daily you could use like this low
  • 00:09:11
    right here
  • 00:09:13
    um as like the start of a new fair value
  • 00:09:15
    Gap all that stuff
  • 00:09:17
    okay so that's how I probably would have
  • 00:09:19
    traded GJ right
  • 00:09:21
    um not much on this we had we didn't
  • 00:09:23
    really see any like liquidity sweeps
  • 00:09:25
    besides like just taking out these 15
  • 00:09:27
    minute highs
  • 00:09:29
    um
  • 00:09:30
    so that's it on GJ let's move forward to
  • 00:09:32
    the gold
  • 00:09:44
    um
  • 00:09:48
    um
  • 00:09:52
    um all right so this is
  • 00:09:58
    so we have the Asian session High
  • 00:10:03
    we have the
  • 00:10:05
    London session low
  • 00:10:08
    okay
  • 00:10:09
    um and then let's go ahead and look into
  • 00:10:11
    gold so gold bearish on the weekly
  • 00:10:16
    um
  • 00:10:17
    still technically
  • 00:10:19
    bearish on The Daily although odds that
  • 00:10:22
    we close above here
  • 00:10:24
    on The Daily time frame are pretty
  • 00:10:26
    likely right odds that we break
  • 00:10:28
    structure on this in the next three
  • 00:10:29
    hours are very likely
  • 00:10:32
    um but again something to keep in mind
  • 00:10:34
    for bearish on the weekly or bearish
  • 00:10:36
    until we can close all the way above
  • 00:10:38
    this high up here so we still have a
  • 00:10:41
    ways to go on this
  • 00:10:43
    um
  • 00:10:44
    so
  • 00:10:46
    like bearish on the daily but like kind
  • 00:10:50
    of not really anymore
  • 00:10:52
    um four hour we were bullish pre-market
  • 00:10:56
    if we look into the one hour
  • 00:11:00
    we were not necessarily bullish on this
  • 00:11:04
    this is probably a trade that I would
  • 00:11:05
    have avoided
  • 00:11:07
    um just due to the fact that we have a
  • 00:11:09
    bunch of countering
  • 00:11:11
    countering things right so we're bearish
  • 00:11:14
    on the weekly
  • 00:11:17
    but I mean at the time of Market open we
  • 00:11:19
    were bearish on on The Daily but this
  • 00:11:22
    huge candle um
  • 00:11:23
    is obviously showing previous price
  • 00:11:26
    action or after market opened
  • 00:11:28
    um but bullish on the bullet bearish on
  • 00:11:32
    The Daily bullish on the four hour and
  • 00:11:35
    then bearish on the one hour
  • 00:11:37
    you know you probably don't want to be
  • 00:11:39
    trading under those conditions
  • 00:11:42
    um so with that being said I probably
  • 00:11:43
    wouldn't have wanted to take a trade off
  • 00:11:45
    this but
  • 00:11:47
    uh we do see our Forex strategy worked
  • 00:11:50
    pretty well here we see these London
  • 00:11:52
    lows
  • 00:11:53
    get pushed into and then we see Boom the
  • 00:11:56
    break of structure
  • 00:11:58
    right here which honestly probably isn't
  • 00:12:01
    the best thing to trade because this was
  • 00:12:03
    right during CPI
  • 00:12:05
    um so you probably would have taken the
  • 00:12:07
    trade there if there wasn't news and
  • 00:12:09
    then Target
  • 00:12:11
    um Asian session highs and then really
  • 00:12:14
    anything else like find a weekly
  • 00:12:16
    retracement tool if you do think price
  • 00:12:18
    is going to go up and that's why I'm
  • 00:12:19
    saying this isn't a good trade to take
  • 00:12:21
    because we wouldn't have taken this
  • 00:12:23
    anyways because there's too many
  • 00:12:24
    conflicting biases
  • 00:12:26
    um but yeah that's how I probably would
  • 00:12:28
    have traded gold today let's go over to
  • 00:12:31
    you know
  • 00:12:52
    all right
  • 00:12:54
    um
  • 00:12:57
    here we have Asian session highs
  • 00:13:02
    Asian session Lowe's London did not
  • 00:13:05
    really make any highs this was kind of
  • 00:13:07
    like I guess you could consider this the
  • 00:13:09
    one in session high but this is like
  • 00:13:12
    what even this is like a perfect
  • 00:13:15
    whoever traded trend lines Made bread
  • 00:13:18
    during lunch session on this
  • 00:13:22
    um but yeah there's not really a London
  • 00:13:24
    session High
  • 00:13:25
    um
  • 00:13:27
    you could like consider this the London
  • 00:13:29
    session low but again I wouldn't even
  • 00:13:30
    want to consider that
  • 00:13:32
    um this is again like a
  • 00:13:35
    kind of a shitty price action oh wait
  • 00:13:38
    what happened
  • 00:13:41
    this is kind of like a shitty price
  • 00:13:42
    action
  • 00:13:43
    um
  • 00:13:45
    type of day uh but we see price
  • 00:13:50
    let's see
  • 00:13:51
    we see price take out London session
  • 00:13:53
    lows break structure the upside rally
  • 00:13:55
    into these Asian session highs and then
  • 00:13:58
    obviously boom we take out liquidity
  • 00:14:00
    price Falls a little bit fills this
  • 00:14:01
    imbalance pushes higher
  • 00:14:04
    um this if we look at the daily
  • 00:14:08
    bullish on the on the daily bullish on
  • 00:14:10
    the weekly we've been saying this about
  • 00:14:12
    gu we said our next Target area for GU
  • 00:14:14
    was the top of this imbalance that's
  • 00:14:16
    been reached now
  • 00:14:18
    um like I I I've been saying that this
  • 00:14:21
    like that I don't even have to
  • 00:14:24
    say this but like
  • 00:14:26
    you know I said that this would happen
  • 00:14:29
    um anyways we broke structure the upside
  • 00:14:31
    we were bullish on the four hour
  • 00:14:35
    we were bearish on the one hour
  • 00:14:38
    um but for me that probably would have
  • 00:14:41
    just been looking for a four hour
  • 00:14:42
    retrace but this probably wouldn't have
  • 00:14:45
    necessarily given us much because no
  • 00:14:47
    fair value Gap no order block no
  • 00:14:50
    equilibrium
  • 00:14:51
    not necessarily a good spot to be
  • 00:14:53
    trading in
  • 00:14:54
    um and this is just one of those things
  • 00:14:55
    where we probably would have avoided
  • 00:14:57
    trading that day so
  • 00:14:59
    gold and gu avoided it
  • 00:15:02
    um probably would have avoided trading
  • 00:15:04
    GJ could have caught something good s p
  • 00:15:07
    you know maybe you could have caught
  • 00:15:09
    something good but just going over what
  • 00:15:11
    we saw today kind of goes to show
  • 00:15:14
    um that
  • 00:15:15
    trading during CPI is not necessarily
  • 00:15:18
    the smartest
  • 00:15:20
    um because you're getting a super low
  • 00:15:22
    volatility move uh
  • 00:15:25
    um anger also just
  • 00:15:29
    you're you're trading way later into the
  • 00:15:31
    session than you need to be
  • 00:15:33
    um so that's why we avoid it all
  • 00:15:34
    together but tomorrow we'll hop on Zoom
  • 00:15:36
    uh when PPI comes out so I'm gonna wake
  • 00:15:39
    up extra early go to the gym at like 5
  • 00:15:41
    a.m
  • 00:15:42
    um
  • 00:15:43
    Grind Time
  • 00:15:45
    um and then we'll we'll get on Zoom
  • 00:15:49
    pretty early and we'll watch like as PPI
  • 00:15:52
    affects the market and I honestly think
  • 00:15:53
    we'll make that a boot camp video too
  • 00:15:55
    like watching news come out together and
  • 00:15:57
    then like I'll make a video on like how
  • 00:16:00
    you can trade news or how you can chart
  • 00:16:02
    during news to increase your confidence
  • 00:16:04
    in your own trading I think that would
  • 00:16:06
    be pretty cool that would be pretty
  • 00:16:07
    beneficial so
  • 00:16:09
    with that being said that's our little
  • 00:16:11
    um Zoom markup today I wanted to do back
  • 00:16:15
    testing with you guys but after
  • 00:16:17
    going over what hap like the CPI stuff
  • 00:16:20
    today
  • 00:16:22
    um I'd rather do it on like a more
  • 00:16:24
    regular trading day so like we take our
  • 00:16:27
    trade
  • 00:16:28
    for the day
  • 00:16:29
    um like so tomorrow it won't happen
  • 00:16:31
    either but like maybe on Friday on
  • 00:16:34
    Friday we can make that the boot camp
  • 00:16:35
    video where
  • 00:16:37
    um we like maybe I start the YouTube vid
  • 00:16:40
    where I'm like explaining you know oh
  • 00:16:43
    this is like
  • 00:16:44
    daily buys this is this this is that and
  • 00:16:47
    then
  • 00:16:48
    um after that we show like what trade we
  • 00:16:51
    took and then I also get some of you
  • 00:16:52
    guys on here to go over your guys's
  • 00:16:55
    analysis on um certain Pairs and stuff
  • 00:16:58
    and I can kind of like critique and
  • 00:17:00
    Coach because I know a lot of you guys
  • 00:17:01
    asked for that so
  • 00:17:03
    that being said that's a little back
  • 00:17:06
    testing or just Aimbot practice
  • 00:17:09
    um as I would call it tjr on a CPI news
  • 00:17:13
    day
  • 00:17:14
    um
  • 00:17:15
    that being said I'll catch you boys
  • 00:17:17
    tomorrow
  • 00:17:18
    um Discord jits I'll I'll see you guys
  • 00:17:20
    in there
  • 00:17:21
    um and
  • 00:17:23
    people on YouTube I will see you guys
  • 00:17:25
    actually watch this video and then watch
  • 00:17:27
    the Vlog that's coming out today
  • 00:17:30
    it'll be really interesting hopefully I
  • 00:17:32
    can't oh I have a gym Vlog gym vlog's
  • 00:17:34
    coming out today so that'll be exciting
  • 00:17:36
    hopefully I'll look jacked if I don't I
  • 00:17:39
    got a couple more anyways that being
  • 00:17:41
    said I'll catch you boys
Tags
  • CPI
  • 回测
  • 市场结构
  • 交易策略
  • 公平价值缺口
  • 高时间框架
  • 流动性
  • 交易风险