The Population Myth | FALSE Panic | Future and Poverty

00:58:29
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ufjI2vKAC0

Ringkasan

TLDRIn his presentation, Hans Rosling dissects the complexities of global population dynamics while countering common misconceptions about overpopulation and development. He shares a historical perspective on population growth, illustrating how improvements in health care, education, and family planning have significantly lowered birth rates, particularly in countries like Bangladesh. The narrative emphasizes the shift towards smaller family sizes and increasing child survival rates as key factors influencing demographic changes. Rosling presents a hopeful outlook on the future, suggesting that while challenges remain, such as climate change and poverty, the world is progressing towards a more balanced demographic distribution and improved quality of life for many.

Takeaways

  • 🌍 Global population is experiencing slower growth rates.
  • 👶 Bangladesh has significantly reduced its birth rate through education and health initiatives.
  • 📚 Education for girls leads to smaller family sizes and better economic prospects.
  • ⚖️ 'Peak Child' indicates a leveling off of the global child population.
  • 🌱 Africa faces challenges but also opportunities for economic growth and resource management.
  • 📈 Over 80% of the global population is literate, contrary to many beliefs.
  • 🌦️ Climate change is a significant challenge but manageable with responsible resource use.
  • 💡 Extreme poverty can be eliminated with global cooperation and investment.

Garis waktu

  • 00:00:00 - 00:05:00

    The world is undergoing relentless change with a growing population and various challenges. Despite fears about overpopulation, many are working towards solutions. Hans Rosling, a statistician, uses data to demonstrate how the world is actually improving, especially in terms of population growth and health.

  • 00:05:00 - 00:10:00

    Population growth has been misunderstood, often seen as a bomb about to explode. Historically, the population grew slowly until the Industrial Revolution. Since then, growth has accelerated, particularly in Asia, with many countries experiencing significant changes in family size.

  • 00:10:00 - 00:15:00

    In Bangladesh, a cultural shift is leading to smaller families. Women like Taslima are helping others access family planning services and contraception to promote smaller family sizes, which has led to a notable decrease in the fertility rate over recent decades.

  • 00:15:00 - 00:20:00

    Effective family planning is evident as fertility rates decline in Bangladesh, where life expectancy has increased and family sizes have shrunk dramatically. This trend is reflected worldwide, particularly in developing countries, which are moving towards smaller families.

  • 00:20:00 - 00:25:00

    Data illustrates that, historically, families in developed nations had fewer children and longer lifespans. Progress is being made as many countries transition towards improved health and lower fertility rates, amidst misconceptions about population growth in regions like Bangladesh.

  • 00:25:00 - 00:30:00

    A survey showed that many in Britain vastly underestimate the average number of children in Bangladesh. This highlights a disconnect in understanding global family sizes, with two-child families becoming commonplace across various nations and cultures.

  • 00:30:00 - 00:35:00

    Education is key to empowering women in Bangladesh, leading to improved job prospects and further changes in family planning. Young women are eager to make advancements in their lives and societal status, indicating a positive trend in women's rights and opportunities.

  • 00:35:00 - 00:40:00

    Child survival has drastically improved in Bangladesh, decreasing from high mortality rates. As parents become confident that their children will survive, this has helped in the push for smaller family sizes, influencing global fertility trends.

  • 00:40:00 - 00:45:00

    Historically, population growth happened because children didn't survive to adulthood. The Industrial Revolution and advances in medicine changed child survival rates, leading to a population boom. Today, the balance aims for two surviving children per couple.

  • 00:45:00 - 00:50:00

    Future population growth is projected to slow, with most growth occurring through adults aging, not from an increase in child births. An eventual stabilization of population numbers within the century is anticipated, thanks to reduced fertility rates worldwide.

  • 00:50:00 - 00:58:29

    By the end of the century, most population growth will occur in Africa, but there will be opportunities for prosperity, especially as agriculture improves. The challenges will persist, but there is potential for growth and improvement in living standards across developing regions.

Tampilkan lebih banyak

Peta Pikiran

Video Tanya Jawab

  • What does Hans Rosling say about the world's population growth?

    Rosling explains that while population growth has been rapid, particularly in the last century, the rate is slowing down and will stabilize by the end of the century.

  • How has Bangladesh improved its population growth rates?

    Bangladesh has seen a reduction in birth rates due to family planning initiatives and improving child survival rates.

  • What is 'Peak Child'?

    'Peak Child' refers to the point where the number of children globally is expected to level off at around 2 billion, while the adult population continues to grow.

  • How is education impacting family sizes?

    As education levels, particularly for women, have increased, families tend to have fewer children and improve their overall living standards.

  • What challenges does Hans identify for Africa's future populations?

    While Africa's population is expected to double, challenges include economic development, resource management, and reducing poverty.

  • What misconception does Rosling address regarding literacy?

    He highlights that global literacy is around 80%, contrary to widespread beliefs that it is significantly lower.

  • What is Rosling's view on climate change and population growth?

    He acknowledges the threat of climate change but suggests that responsible resource use can allow for population growth without significant environmental degradation.

  • What solution does he propose for ending extreme poverty?

    Rosling argues that it is possible to eliminate extreme poverty globally, emphasizing support for health, education, and economic initiatives.

Lihat lebih banyak ringkasan video

Dapatkan akses instan ke ringkasan video YouTube gratis yang didukung oleh AI!
Teks
en
Gulir Otomatis:
  • 00:00:03
    [Music]
  • 00:00:05
    we live in a world of Relentless
  • 00:00:10
    change huge migrations of people to new
  • 00:00:14
    mega cities filling soaring
  • 00:00:17
    skyscrapers and vast
  • 00:00:21
    slumps ravenous appetites for fuel and
  • 00:00:25
    food unpredictable climate
  • 00:00:28
    change and all this in a world where the
  • 00:00:32
    population is still
  • 00:00:35
    growing should we be worried should we
  • 00:00:39
    be
  • 00:00:42
    scared how to make sense of it
  • 00:00:51
    all 7 billion people now live on this
  • 00:00:55
    planet of ours isn't it
  • 00:00:58
    beautiful but when some people think
  • 00:01:01
    about the world and its future they
  • 00:01:03
    Panic others prefer not to think about
  • 00:01:05
    it at all but tonight I'm going to show
  • 00:01:08
    you how things really are my name is
  • 00:01:11
    Hans rosling I'm a statistician that no
  • 00:01:13
    no no no don't switch off because with
  • 00:01:16
    the latest data from all country I'm
  • 00:01:17
    going to show you the world in the new
  • 00:01:19
    way I'm going to tell you how world
  • 00:01:21
    population is changing and what today's
  • 00:01:24
    data tell us about how the future of the
  • 00:01:26
    world will be we undeniably
  • 00:01:30
    face huge challenges but the good news
  • 00:01:33
    is that the future may not be quite as
  • 00:01:36
    gloomy and that mankind already is doing
  • 00:01:40
    better than many of you
  • 00:01:43
    [Music]
  • 00:01:51
    think
  • 00:01:52
    babies each one a blessing but many
  • 00:01:56
    people think population growth is out of
  • 00:01:58
    control some even talk of a population
  • 00:02:02
    bomb are they
  • 00:02:07
    right so where are we with population
  • 00:02:10
    today and how did we get here I'm going
  • 00:02:12
    to tell you a story about everyone who
  • 00:02:15
    ever lived well at least during the last
  • 00:02:18
    some Thousand Years here we go uh I give
  • 00:02:22
    you two
  • 00:02:24
    exes this is time in years and this one
  • 00:02:29
    here is world population in
  • 00:02:32
    billions in the year 10,000 BC when the
  • 00:02:37
    first people were becoming Farmers then
  • 00:02:39
    the archaeologist estimate that the
  • 00:02:42
    world population was only 10 million
  • 00:02:46
    imagine 10 million that's like Sweden
  • 00:02:48
    today a world of only
  • 00:02:53
    sweds but then as the Millennia passed
  • 00:02:56
    by more Farmers food and people and
  • 00:02:59
    great Empires could emerge Egypt China
  • 00:03:04
    India and finally Europe and population
  • 00:03:07
    continued to grow but very slowly and I
  • 00:03:10
    stop here at the year 1800 because 1800
  • 00:03:16
    that's when world population became 1
  • 00:03:19
    billion imagine all that time the
  • 00:03:23
    population growth was just with a tiny
  • 00:03:25
    fraction of a percent through thousands
  • 00:03:28
    of years but here 1800 with the
  • 00:03:31
    Industrial Revolution everything changed
  • 00:03:33
    and population started to grow faster in
  • 00:03:36
    little more than 100 years it reached 2
  • 00:03:38
    billion and then you know when I was at
  • 00:03:41
    school it was three
  • 00:03:43
    billion and many people said the planet
  • 00:03:46
    cannot support more people even experts
  • 00:03:49
    said that but what happens was this you
  • 00:03:51
    know we became 4 billion 5 billion 6
  • 00:03:56
    billion 7
  • 00:03:58
    billion imagine
  • 00:04:00
    more than half of the world population
  • 00:04:03
    have been added during my lifetime and
  • 00:04:06
    the the number is still
  • 00:04:10
    Rising most of the population growth in
  • 00:04:12
    recent years has been in Asian countries
  • 00:04:15
    like here in Bangladesh where the
  • 00:04:18
    population has tripled during my
  • 00:04:20
    lifetime from 50 to more than 150
  • 00:04:27
    million it's now one of the the most
  • 00:04:30
    densely populated countries in the world
  • 00:04:33
    some 15 million already live in the very
  • 00:04:36
    crowded Capital
  • 00:04:39
    daaka people here whether in the city or
  • 00:04:42
    the countryside are intensely concerned
  • 00:04:45
    about the size of
  • 00:04:48
    families but a new Bangladesh is
  • 00:04:51
    emerging like the K family mom tasima
  • 00:04:55
    daughters tanina and little Sadia and
  • 00:05:02
    [Music]
  • 00:05:14
    Han Hanan come from large families
  • 00:05:17
    themselves but they've decided to have
  • 00:05:20
    just two children
  • 00:05:23
    [Music]
  • 00:05:30
    [Music]
  • 00:05:51
    T and Hanan are part of a cultural shift
  • 00:05:54
    away from big families and for taslima
  • 00:05:57
    it's also become a job
  • 00:06:00
    she works for the government Family
  • 00:06:02
    Planning service which employs women
  • 00:06:05
    like her in every village she goes door
  • 00:06:08
    to door to try to help others to have
  • 00:06:11
    smaller families too
  • 00:06:18
    [Music]
  • 00:06:31
    tasa offers advice moral support and
  • 00:06:34
    most importantly a range of contracep
  • 00:06:46
    [Music]
  • 00:06:55
    [Music]
  • 00:07:03
    [Music]
  • 00:07:11
    [Music]
  • 00:07:17
    so how successful has tasima and
  • 00:07:20
    Bangladesh been in reducing fertility
  • 00:07:23
    rate that is number of babies born per
  • 00:07:25
    woman in Sweden we set up gapminder
  • 00:07:28
    Foundation to make make the world's data
  • 00:07:31
    available in a way that everyone can
  • 00:07:33
    understand so I can show you the
  • 00:07:36
    situation in Bangladesh and what has
  • 00:07:37
    happened here a horizontal axis babies
  • 00:07:41
    per woman all the way from 1 to 2 to 7
  • 00:07:44
    to8 and here a vertical axis that is
  • 00:07:48
    lifespan life expectancy how many years
  • 00:07:51
    a newborn can expect to live from 30 all
  • 00:07:55
    the way up to 90 now we start in 19 72 a
  • 00:08:00
    very important year for Bangladesh the
  • 00:08:03
    First full year of Independence that
  • 00:08:05
    year Bangladesh was over there and they
  • 00:08:08
    had on average seven babies per woman
  • 00:08:12
    and lifespan was less than 50 years so
  • 00:08:15
    what has happened after Independence
  • 00:08:17
    have life become longer in Bangladesh
  • 00:08:21
    have children become fewer here is the
  • 00:08:23
    data I start Bangladesh indeed you know
  • 00:08:26
    life is getting longer and babies fewer
  • 00:08:28
    six five and even longer four three and
  • 00:08:31
    they land now almost to two it's 2.2 and
  • 00:08:35
    the lifespan is 70 it's absolutely
  • 00:08:39
    amazing in 40 years Bangladesh have gone
  • 00:08:43
    from 7 six 5 4 3 2 it's a miracle that
  • 00:08:49
    has happened in
  • 00:08:51
    Bangladesh but is it only in Bangladesh
  • 00:08:54
    well I'll show you the whole world I
  • 00:08:57
    will go back 50 years in time to
  • 00:09:01
    1963 here are all the countries and
  • 00:09:05
    these green ones is America North and
  • 00:09:08
    South the yellow ones is Europe east and
  • 00:09:12
    west and blue is Africa north and south
  • 00:09:16
    of the Sahara and red is Asia and we
  • 00:09:19
    include Australia and New Zealand the
  • 00:09:21
    size of the bubble show the size of the
  • 00:09:24
    population look the big ones over there
  • 00:09:28
    is China and India and Bangladesh is
  • 00:09:30
    just behind in
  • 00:09:33
    1963 the average number of babies born
  • 00:09:36
    per woman in the world was five but it
  • 00:09:39
    was a divided world can you see that
  • 00:09:42
    these countries over here the developed
  • 00:09:45
    countries they had small families and
  • 00:09:48
    long lives and then there were the
  • 00:09:50
    developing countries over here and they
  • 00:09:53
    had large families and short lives and
  • 00:09:55
    very few were in
  • 00:09:57
    between but now we'll see what has
  • 00:10:00
    happened I start the world here we go
  • 00:10:04
    and you can see that China is getting
  • 00:10:06
    the big BB is getting to Better Health
  • 00:10:08
    and then they start Family Planning they
  • 00:10:09
    move along to smaller families and the
  • 00:10:11
    Big Green look at Mexico Mexico is
  • 00:10:13
    coming there and this is uh Brazil also
  • 00:10:16
    the green and Latin America and here
  • 00:10:17
    India is following India is following
  • 00:10:19
    the big red bubbles are Asian countries
  • 00:10:21
    going this way many Africans are still
  • 00:10:23
    with many babies born per woman and then
  • 00:10:26
    Bangladesh over there overtakes India on
  • 00:10:28
    its way to the small family and now
  • 00:10:30
    almost all go up to this even Africa
  • 00:10:33
    start to move o that was the earthquake
  • 00:10:35
    in Haiti and now everyone ends up there
  • 00:10:39
    what a change we
  • 00:10:41
    have today you know in the world the
  • 00:10:45
    average is
  • 00:10:46
    2.5 imagine you know it used to be 50
  • 00:10:50
    years ago five and the world has changed
  • 00:10:53
    the average number of babies born per
  • 00:10:56
    woman have gone from 5 to 2.5 and it's
  • 00:11:00
    still decreasing what a big
  • 00:11:03
    change people would think that
  • 00:11:06
    Bangladesh in countries like that is
  • 00:11:08
    some sort of epicenter of a population
  • 00:11:11
    bomb they couldn't be more wrong to me
  • 00:11:14
    health workers like Mrs tasima and their
  • 00:11:17
    colleagues who have taken their
  • 00:11:19
    countries from this side all over in a
  • 00:11:22
    few decades to much better health and
  • 00:11:26
    small families they are the heroes of
  • 00:11:28
    our time
  • 00:11:30
    it's an amazing change that has happened
  • 00:11:33
    we no longer live in a divided
  • 00:11:36
    world but how much do people know about
  • 00:11:40
    this amazing change at Gap minding we
  • 00:11:43
    not only show data we also measure how
  • 00:11:47
    much people know or don't know about the
  • 00:11:49
    world so we did a first survey in Sweden
  • 00:11:54
    the results were
  • 00:11:56
    depressive so we did our second survey
  • 00:11:59
    in Britain and we had High Hopes because
  • 00:12:01
    the British have been all over the place
  • 00:12:04
    you know so we thought we would get good
  • 00:12:06
    results here the first question we asked
  • 00:12:08
    was how many babies do women have on
  • 00:12:11
    average in Bangladesh and we gave four
  • 00:12:14
    Alternatives 2.5 3.5 4.5 or
  • 00:12:19
    5.5 this is the result of the British
  • 00:12:21
    [Music]
  • 00:12:28
    survey but you know the right answer
  • 00:12:31
    it's
  • 00:12:32
    2.5 only 12% of the British got it right
  • 00:12:37
    so we thought that perhaps it was those
  • 00:12:40
    with low education who dragged down the
  • 00:12:43
    result so we segmented those who had
  • 00:12:45
    been to the Fine British universities
  • 00:12:48
    and had a University degree and here
  • 00:12:50
    they are this is the
  • 00:12:57
    result if anything works
  • 00:13:01
    so now you may conclude that the British
  • 00:13:03
    lack knowledge about the world uhuh
  • 00:13:06
    uhuh what if I would have asked this CH
  • 00:13:10
    and his friends I would have written the
  • 00:13:13
    different answers on bananas and let
  • 00:13:15
    them pick one banana each you know this
  • 00:13:18
    result I would
  • 00:13:20
    get of course shims know nothing about
  • 00:13:22
    Banas
  • 00:13:29
    but by pure random they will pick twice
  • 00:13:31
    as many correct answer as the
  • 00:13:34
    British and of the British you know more
  • 00:13:37
    than half of the British people think
  • 00:13:39
    it's 4.5 or
  • 00:13:42
    more the problem here is not lack of
  • 00:13:46
    knowledge it's preconceived ideas the
  • 00:13:49
    British cannot even imagine cannot even
  • 00:13:52
    guess that women in Bangladesh have 2.5
  • 00:13:55
    and you know it's really 2.2 already
  • 00:13:57
    this is what the Brit don't know that
  • 00:13:59
    tasa and her family are the norm in
  • 00:14:01
    Bangladesh today the most common family
  • 00:14:04
    size and it's not only there it's all
  • 00:14:07
    over the world in Brazil two child
  • 00:14:12
    families Vietnam two child
  • 00:14:15
    families and even in India the most
  • 00:14:19
    common family size is two children today
  • 00:14:22
    and also if you go to the African
  • 00:14:23
    continent you go to the big cities here
  • 00:14:25
    Adis Ababa you have less than two
  • 00:14:27
    children per woman today in ad
  • 00:14:30
    there can be Muslim Buddhist Hindu
  • 00:14:33
    Christian there's not one religion not
  • 00:14:36
    one culture not one continent where two
  • 00:14:39
    child families cannot happen this change
  • 00:14:43
    from big families down to two child
  • 00:14:45
    families is one of the most important
  • 00:14:48
    things that have happened in the world
  • 00:14:49
    during my lifetime it's unprecedented in
  • 00:14:53
    human
  • 00:14:57
    history oh
  • 00:14:59
    here we are back in
  • 00:15:02
    Bangladesh almost all girls in Muslim
  • 00:15:05
    Bangladesh like 15 yearold tanina go to
  • 00:15:08
    school today the government now even
  • 00:15:12
    pays families money to keep their
  • 00:15:14
    daughters on at secondary
  • 00:15:16
    level at tangina school boys are now
  • 00:15:20
    outnumbered by girls
  • 00:15:23
    [Applause]
  • 00:15:28
    [Applause]
  • 00:15:33
    you could hardly miss the point of this
  • 00:15:38
    [Applause]
  • 00:15:43
    lesson education is effective and there
  • 00:15:46
    are also new opportunities for
  • 00:15:48
    Bangladeshi women despite continuing
  • 00:15:51
    inequalities there are more jobs and
  • 00:15:54
    tanina is Aiming High
  • 00:16:12
    more and more young women here are
  • 00:16:15
    seeing how different things could be for
  • 00:16:23
    [Music]
  • 00:16:27
    them
  • 00:16:55
    for it's wonderful to see tasa so full
  • 00:16:58
    of hope for a bright future for her two
  • 00:17:01
    daughters but one essential
  • 00:17:04
    transformation underpins the change in
  • 00:17:06
    Bangladesh it's a dramatic Improvement
  • 00:17:09
    in child
  • 00:17:14
    [Music]
  • 00:17:15
    survival it's
  • 00:17:17
    Ramadan the Muslim month of fasting and
  • 00:17:22
    reflection at this auspicious time Hanan
  • 00:17:25
    is helping his parents to tend the
  • 00:17:27
    family graveyard
  • 00:17:33
    three of hanan's siblings died when they
  • 00:17:36
    were very
  • 00:17:37
    young they are buried
  • 00:17:55
    here back when hanan's parents were a
  • 00:17:57
    young couple one in five children in
  • 00:18:00
    Bangladesh died before they reached 5
  • 00:18:03
    years of age All Families lived with a
  • 00:18:06
    constant fear of losing one or more
  • 00:18:09
    children
  • 00:18:29
    in the last few decades Bangladesh has
  • 00:18:31
    made great progress in basic health
  • 00:18:34
    particularly in child
  • 00:18:36
    survival vaccines treatment of
  • 00:18:38
    infections and better nutrition and
  • 00:18:40
    hygiene have all saved the lives of
  • 00:18:42
    millions of children and as parents have
  • 00:18:45
    come to see that all of their children
  • 00:18:48
    are now likely to survive the biggest
  • 00:18:50
    obstacle to Family Planning has at last
  • 00:18:53
    gone even in the slums of Daka women now
  • 00:18:57
    have on average just two
  • 00:19:05
    children child survival drives
  • 00:19:08
    everything let's go back into
  • 00:19:11
    history why did the world population
  • 00:19:14
    grow so slowly before 1800 well
  • 00:19:18
    throughout history all historical
  • 00:19:20
    records show us that on average two
  • 00:19:23
    parents got more or less six children
  • 00:19:26
    but that looks as a very fast population
  • 00:19:28
    growth so why didn't it grow because 1 2
  • 00:19:33
    three four of the children died before
  • 00:19:36
    growing up to become parents
  • 00:19:38
    themselves people in the past never
  • 00:19:42
    lived in ecological balance with nature
  • 00:19:44
    they died in ecological balance with
  • 00:19:47
    nature it was utterly
  • 00:19:51
    tragic but with the Industrial
  • 00:19:54
    Revolution this changed better wages
  • 00:19:56
    more food tapped water better sanitation
  • 00:20:00
    soap medical advances you know so why
  • 00:20:04
    did then from all these advances why did
  • 00:20:06
    population grow was it because they got
  • 00:20:08
    more children no 1963 that year when I
  • 00:20:12
    was at school actually the number of
  • 00:20:14
    children per woman had decreased a
  • 00:20:16
    little in the world to
  • 00:20:18
    five and the reason for the fast
  • 00:20:20
    population growth was the proved Child
  • 00:20:24
    Survivor four survived at that time but
  • 00:20:27
    still one out of five died that was
  • 00:20:30
    still
  • 00:20:31
    terrible so it's only in the recent
  • 00:20:34
    decades that most of the countries have
  • 00:20:37
    taken big leap forwards in child
  • 00:20:39
    survival and in Family Planning so that
  • 00:20:42
    we are now approaching the new balance
  • 00:20:45
    and it's a nice balance two parents on
  • 00:20:48
    average get two children that survive we
  • 00:20:51
    have families in a very happy balance
  • 00:20:54
    this is the most normal family situation
  • 00:20:56
    in the world today
  • 00:20:58
    and what does this mean for the future I
  • 00:21:02
    will show you the projection the best
  • 00:21:04
    projection into the future from the the
  • 00:21:07
    finest demographers we have at the
  • 00:21:09
    population division of the United
  • 00:21:11
    Nations and it looks like this it's
  • 00:21:13
    going to continue first up to eight and
  • 00:21:17
    then it goes up to nine and then it goes
  • 00:21:20
    here but see it's slowing down it's
  • 00:21:21
    slowing down by the end of the century
  • 00:21:23
    it's becoming more flat there and if I
  • 00:21:26
    do a closeup on this you can see huh
  • 00:21:30
    that we are expecting a slowing down and
  • 00:21:33
    the end of fast population
  • 00:21:36
    growth but of course this is a
  • 00:21:39
    projection that has a certain degree of
  • 00:21:41
    uncertainty but we are sure that we are
  • 00:21:44
    at the end of fast population growth
  • 00:21:46
    within this
  • 00:21:47
    Century it's all due to a remarkable
  • 00:21:50
    effect of the falling fertility rate
  • 00:21:52
    look here if we go back into this I'll
  • 00:21:55
    show this by showing you the number of
  • 00:21:57
    children in the world the number of
  • 00:21:59
    children from zero to 15 years of age
  • 00:22:02
    here they come look uh the number of
  • 00:22:05
    children there increased slowly and then
  • 00:22:08
    also it increased rapidly so by the turn
  • 00:22:10
    of the century here there were two
  • 00:22:13
    billion children in the world and to me
  • 00:22:16
    that was an important year because that
  • 00:22:18
    was when duris was born that's my first
  • 00:22:22
    grandchild and and she was born at a
  • 00:22:24
    very special time for children in the
  • 00:22:26
    world you know because the Specialists
  • 00:22:29
    the demographers estimate that from this
  • 00:22:32
    year the number of children in the world
  • 00:22:35
    will continue like
  • 00:22:36
    this it will not increase any longer by
  • 00:22:40
    the end of the century we will still
  • 00:22:42
    have two billion children in the world
  • 00:22:45
    when Doris was born is when the world
  • 00:22:48
    entered into the age of peak
  • 00:22:51
    child the number of children are not
  • 00:22:54
    increasing now this will confuse you
  • 00:22:59
    because how can then the total
  • 00:23:01
    population grow like this if the
  • 00:23:04
    children doesn't increase where would
  • 00:23:06
    all these adults come from and and to
  • 00:23:09
    explain that I have to leave this fancy
  • 00:23:11
    digital stuff and show you real powerful
  • 00:23:14
    educational material we have developed
  • 00:23:17
    and it's here I will show you the world
  • 00:23:20
    population ladies and gentlemen in the
  • 00:23:23
    form of foam
  • 00:23:26
    blocks one block is 1
  • 00:23:29
    billion one block is 1 billion and that
  • 00:23:33
    means that we have two billion children
  • 00:23:35
    in the world then we have 2 billion
  • 00:23:39
    between 15 and 30 years of
  • 00:23:41
    age these are rounded numbers we have 1
  • 00:23:45
    billion 30 to 45 we have 1 billion 45 to
  • 00:23:49
    60 and then we have my block 60 years
  • 00:23:53
    and older we are here on top H this is
  • 00:23:56
    the world population today and and you
  • 00:23:59
    can see that there are three billions
  • 00:24:01
    missing like here only few of them are
  • 00:24:03
    missing because they have died most of
  • 00:24:05
    them are missing because they were never
  • 00:24:08
    born because back then you know before
  • 00:24:11
    1980 there were much fewer children born
  • 00:24:14
    in the world because there were fewer
  • 00:24:15
    women giving birth to children so this
  • 00:24:18
    is what we have today now what will
  • 00:24:20
    happen in the
  • 00:24:21
    future do you know what happens to old
  • 00:24:23
    people like
  • 00:24:25
    me they die yes there was someone here
  • 00:24:28
    who works in hospitals yeah so they die
  • 00:24:33
    the rest they grow 15 years older and
  • 00:24:36
    have two billion
  • 00:24:38
    children these ones are now old time to
  • 00:24:41
    die and then these ones grow 15 years
  • 00:24:44
    older and they have two billion children
  • 00:24:46
    this one die and the rest grow 15 years
  • 00:24:49
    older and have two billion children and
  • 00:24:52
    without increasing the number of
  • 00:24:54
    children without increasing the length
  • 00:24:57
    of life we have three billion people
  • 00:25:00
    more by this big inevitable fill up of
  • 00:25:03
    adults which will happen just when the
  • 00:25:05
    large young Generations grow up now
  • 00:25:09
    there's one more detail which is good
  • 00:25:11
    news for the older ones here like me
  • 00:25:13
    that it's estimated that the old people
  • 00:25:15
    will live a little longer so so we have
  • 00:25:18
    to add one billion more for the old here
  • 00:25:20
    on the top and I'm desperately hoping
  • 00:25:23
    that I will be part of that group
  • 00:25:25
    because then I can live long and read
  • 00:25:27
    the annual statistic IC as they come
  • 00:25:29
    reporting every year you but when I talk
  • 00:25:33
    to many fine environmental activists
  • 00:25:35
    which are really have a good concern
  • 00:25:37
    about the environment they very often
  • 00:25:39
    tell me we have to stop population
  • 00:25:41
    growth at 8
  • 00:25:42
    billion but when I then talk with them
  • 00:25:45
    they first they don't know that we have
  • 00:25:47
    reach Peak child and then they are
  • 00:25:49
    completely unaware that most of the
  • 00:25:52
    remaining population growth is an
  • 00:25:54
    inevitable fill up of
  • 00:25:55
    adults so we will end up with more or
  • 00:26:00
    less this amount of people so we know
  • 00:26:03
    how many billions there will be but what
  • 00:26:05
    about where they
  • 00:26:07
    live now and in the
  • 00:26:13
    future there you have the world and here
  • 00:26:16
    are the 7
  • 00:26:18
    billion now out of the 7 billion one
  • 00:26:22
    live in the America North and South
  • 00:26:25
    together one in Europe one in Africa and
  • 00:26:31
    four in Asia so this is now but how to
  • 00:26:35
    remember this I have a very simple way
  • 00:26:37
    of remembering this I put up the numbers
  • 00:26:39
    like this and then I say this is the PIN
  • 00:26:41
    code of the world
  • 00:26:43
    114 now what will happen up to
  • 00:26:47
    midcentury that we know fairly well
  • 00:26:50
    Europe no increase in fact the European
  • 00:26:52
    population is
  • 00:26:53
    decreasing in America a little more
  • 00:26:56
    people mainly retired people in Latin
  • 00:26:58
    America so it makes no difference it's
  • 00:27:00
    more almost the same in Asia we will
  • 00:27:03
    have 1 billion more and then the
  • 00:27:06
    population growth in Asia is over in
  • 00:27:09
    Africa in the next 40 years the
  • 00:27:12
    population will double to 2
  • 00:27:14
    billion now to the end of the
  • 00:27:17
    century well we know quite well no more
  • 00:27:19
    people in Europe no more in America no
  • 00:27:21
    more in Asia but Africa is set as we
  • 00:27:24
    have data today for another dubling so
  • 00:27:27
    that will be 4 billions in
  • 00:27:30
    Africa the
  • 00:27:32
    2,100 and probably the final pin code
  • 00:27:35
    will be
  • 00:27:38
    1145 so in 2100 there will be quite a
  • 00:27:41
    different world the people who live in
  • 00:27:44
    what I call the old west in West Europe
  • 00:27:47
    and North America will by then be less
  • 00:27:49
    than 10% of the world population 80% of
  • 00:27:53
    the world population will be living in
  • 00:27:54
    Asia and Africa but will there be
  • 00:27:57
    resources enough to sustain them well
  • 00:28:01
    this will be a huge Challenge and
  • 00:28:04
    nothing will come
  • 00:28:05
    automatically but my take is that it is
  • 00:28:09
    possible for all these billions to live
  • 00:28:12
    well
  • 00:28:14
    [Music]
  • 00:28:20
    together certainly it's easy to see the
  • 00:28:23
    potential for a prosperous and peaceful
  • 00:28:25
    Asia with 5 billion people people Japan
  • 00:28:30
    South Korea and others are already rich
  • 00:28:32
    following them on the road to wealth are
  • 00:28:35
    larger and larger parts of China India
  • 00:28:38
    Indonesia and many other Asian countries
  • 00:28:42
    even in poor Asian countries more and
  • 00:28:44
    more are getting a decent
  • 00:28:48
    life but what about a future Africa of
  • 00:28:52
    as much as 4
  • 00:28:54
    billion won't most of them be living in
  • 00:28:57
    terrible
  • 00:29:00
    poverty I have seen extreme poverty in
  • 00:29:03
    Africa 30 years ago I spent the two most
  • 00:29:07
    intense years of my life working as
  • 00:29:10
    medical doctor in one of the poorest
  • 00:29:13
    countries mosambik on the east coast of
  • 00:29:16
    Africa mosambik had just become
  • 00:29:20
    independent after a long war against the
  • 00:29:23
    colonial power Portugal and my job was
  • 00:29:27
    to to be one of two doctors we were both
  • 00:29:30
    Foreigners for 300,000 people and this
  • 00:29:35
    was the hospital my wife was also there
  • 00:29:38
    working as a midwife this is the entire
  • 00:29:41
    staff of the hospital those with white
  • 00:29:43
    Coast had the chance during the colonial
  • 00:29:46
    period to get a professional training of
  • 00:29:48
    at least one year the others many of
  • 00:29:51
    them couldn't even read and write but
  • 00:29:54
    they all worked with such dedication and
  • 00:29:57
    motivations
  • 00:29:58
    but the
  • 00:29:59
    patients came with the worst diseases of
  • 00:30:03
    extreme poverty and our resources were
  • 00:30:06
    often not enough and especially my
  • 00:30:09
    skills as a young doctor did not meet
  • 00:30:12
    the need of the patients Mambi is still
  • 00:30:16
    today a very poor country but things
  • 00:30:19
    have improved immensely since I was
  • 00:30:21
    there 30 years ago
  • 00:30:28
    for a start there's now a brand new
  • 00:30:31
    hospital in the town where I worked 30
  • 00:30:33
    years
  • 00:30:35
    ago the new much bigger hospital has 15
  • 00:30:39
    doctors and 11 of them are mozambicans
  • 00:30:42
    all the staff are now well
  • 00:30:47
    trained the director of the hospital is
  • 00:30:50
    Dr Kimo the obst
  • 00:31:01
    the transformation here is amazing to
  • 00:31:16
    me they routinely save women in child
  • 00:31:19
    birth with cesarians something that was
  • 00:31:22
    impossible when I was there
  • 00:31:28
    [Music]
  • 00:31:37
    everything has improved so
  • 00:31:40
    much not just because of Better Health
  • 00:31:43
    but a booming economy too with busy
  • 00:31:46
    ports and markets and new Industries
  • 00:31:49
    with lots of new
  • 00:31:54
    jobs I know you might be thinking that
  • 00:31:57
    this good news is yes about cities and
  • 00:32:00
    towns and it's true the worst challenge
  • 00:32:03
    is in the rural areas where most people
  • 00:32:06
    live but things are changing here
  • 00:32:12
    too deep in rural Northern mozic lies
  • 00:32:15
    the District of
  • 00:32:19
    mooas this is home for Olivia Andre and
  • 00:32:23
    their young
  • 00:32:26
    family like so many other poor people in
  • 00:32:28
    the world Olivia and Andrea are farmers
  • 00:32:31
    reliant on what they grow for what they
  • 00:32:39
    eat it's 4 a.m. and the day's task
  • 00:32:45
    beckon Andrea heads straight to the
  • 00:32:48
    fields Olivia first goes to fetch water
  • 00:32:53
    both have to walk miles to get
  • 00:32:56
    anywhere W okay
  • 00:33:14
    with no other means of Transport
  • 00:33:16
    everything has to be
  • 00:33:22
    carried Olivia and Andrea have eight
  • 00:33:26
    children fertility rates as still high
  • 00:33:28
    in much of rural Africa and it's the
  • 00:33:31
    poorest families who have the most
  • 00:33:33
    mouths to
  • 00:33:34
    feed anything this family can spare
  • 00:33:37
    they'll sell
  • 00:33:58
    yet economic growth is slowly trickling
  • 00:34:01
    into the
  • 00:34:08
    countryside now Andre has set his Sid on
  • 00:34:11
    one thing he believes will change
  • 00:34:21
    everything bicycles can make a huge
  • 00:34:24
    difference to the lives of the rural
  • 00:34:26
    poor they Save hours every day and get
  • 00:34:30
    so much more done with a bicycle they
  • 00:34:33
    can carry much heavier loads to the
  • 00:34:35
    market and earn more money they can
  • 00:34:38
    travel to find work and if they get sick
  • 00:34:41
    they can reach a health clinic in time
  • 00:34:58
    Andre and Olivia have been putting money
  • 00:35:00
    away for two years they haven't quite
  • 00:35:02
    enough yet everything now depends on the
  • 00:35:06
    sesame seeds which they are just
  • 00:35:08
    harvesting if they can get a good price
  • 00:35:11
    they might just make
  • 00:35:13
    it
  • 00:35:16
    s Andre and Olivia live in one of the
  • 00:35:19
    poorest countries and they live in the
  • 00:35:21
    rural area which is the poorest part of
  • 00:35:23
    that country so how many how many people
  • 00:35:26
    are there in the world living like they
  • 00:35:28
    and how many are there that are poorer
  • 00:35:31
    I'm going to show you this JW stick very
  • 00:35:33
    simple poor and Rich and here I have all
  • 00:35:37
    the seven billions again they are in a
  • 00:35:40
    very simplified way lined up there from
  • 00:35:42
    the poorest to the richest now how much
  • 00:35:46
    does the richest billion earn here in a
  • 00:35:50
    dollar per day well let's look here
  • 00:35:53
    o it's coming up it's coming up o y y y
  • 00:35:57
    yo I can't even reach $100 a
  • 00:36:00
    day then let's look at the middle
  • 00:36:02
    billion who is exactly in the middle how
  • 00:36:05
    much do they earn it'll come yes yes yes
  • 00:36:10
    10 and then I go over here to the
  • 00:36:13
    poorest billion how much do they get
  • 00:36:17
    well just
  • 00:36:19
    one this is the difference of the world
  • 00:36:23
    today and The Economist they draw a line
  • 00:36:26
    which they call the line for extreme
  • 00:36:27
    poverty a little above $1 that's when
  • 00:36:30
    you hardly can have enough food to feed
  • 00:36:33
    the family you cannot be sure that you
  • 00:36:34
    have food all days you know and and one
  • 00:36:37
    billion is clearly below that still and
  • 00:36:39
    the second billion is sort of divided by
  • 00:36:42
    that line and and then the others are
  • 00:36:44
    above it now the poorest people they can
  • 00:36:48
    hardly afford to buy shoes and when they
  • 00:36:51
    get shoes the next thing they will save
  • 00:36:53
    for is bicycle this is where Andre and
  • 00:36:56
    Olivia is and after bicycle you will go
  • 00:36:59
    for the motorbike and then after the
  • 00:37:01
    motorbike it's the
  • 00:37:03
    car and I remember when my family got
  • 00:37:06
    the first car it was a small gray
  • 00:37:08
    Volkswagen the first thing we did was to
  • 00:37:11
    go to Norway on holiday because Norway
  • 00:37:13
    is so much more beautiful than Sweden it
  • 00:37:15
    was a fantastic
  • 00:37:17
    trip and and now I'm I'm in this group I
  • 00:37:20
    can go like the richest billion we can
  • 00:37:23
    go on holiday by airplanes of course
  • 00:37:25
    there are people who are much richer
  • 00:37:27
    than the the airplane people some are so
  • 00:37:29
    rich so they're even contemplating that
  • 00:37:31
    they should go as tourists out into
  • 00:37:34
    space and the difference in income from
  • 00:37:36
    the airplane people to the very richest
  • 00:37:39
    over there is almost as big as it is
  • 00:37:42
    from the airplane people here you know
  • 00:37:45
    all the way down to the poorest in that
  • 00:37:47
    side now the most important to remember
  • 00:37:51
    from this J stick is this you know and I
  • 00:37:54
    need to show you this I need my step
  • 00:37:56
    ladder
  • 00:37:58
    H sometimes you need some old well
  • 00:38:00
    functioning technology
  • 00:38:02
    also
  • 00:38:08
    here I can only reach up here they are
  • 00:38:12
    now I'm at the top the problem for us
  • 00:38:16
    living on $100 a day is that when we
  • 00:38:19
    look down on those who have $10 or $1
  • 00:38:23
    they look equally poor we can't see the
  • 00:38:26
    difference it look as if everyone is
  • 00:38:28
    living on the same amount of money and
  • 00:38:31
    they say oh they are all poor no I can
  • 00:38:33
    assure you because I've met and talked
  • 00:38:37
    with people who live down here and I can
  • 00:38:40
    assure you that the people down
  • 00:38:43
    here they know very well how much better
  • 00:38:47
    life would be if they would move from $1
  • 00:38:50
    to $10 10 times as much income this is a
  • 00:38:54
    huge difference you know and and to
  • 00:38:58
    understand this this is what Olivia and
  • 00:39:00
    Andre is trying to do now each little
  • 00:39:04
    step they take along this line here you
  • 00:39:07
    know from the shoes towards the bicycle
  • 00:39:11
    small as it may seems from Far distant
  • 00:39:14
    make a huge difference in their life and
  • 00:39:17
    if Andre and Olivia would get that
  • 00:39:19
    bicycle it would speed them along to
  • 00:39:22
    better life and better wealth up in this
  • 00:39:25
    end
  • 00:39:27
    today Andre and Olivia are preparing to
  • 00:39:30
    sell the Sesame crop they've been
  • 00:39:32
    growing for many
  • 00:39:44
    months but Andre and Olivia will have to
  • 00:39:47
    be careful if they are to get paid the
  • 00:39:50
    proper price
  • 00:40:10
    [Music]
  • 00:40:16
    Andre is going to do the selling and for
  • 00:40:19
    the last time he hopes he has to get
  • 00:40:21
    help to transport the crop to Market
  • 00:40:28
    Andrea now needs to keep his wits about
  • 00:40:37
    him the deal is done and Andre is happy
  • 00:40:40
    with the price he's
  • 00:40:43
    [Music]
  • 00:40:49
    got it's the moment the family have
  • 00:40:52
    worked so hard for
  • 00:41:13
    Andre's journey to Market took all
  • 00:41:15
    morning to walk now in less than an hour
  • 00:41:19
    he can ride home
  • 00:41:37
    [Applause]
  • 00:41:42
    the bicycle is put to use at once the
  • 00:41:45
    children fetch water with it Andrea
  • 00:41:49
    carries more crops to the market and
  • 00:41:52
    just as importantly Olivia and Andrea
  • 00:41:54
    can now easily reach their lessons for
  • 00:41:57
    other adults so they can learn better
  • 00:41:59
    maths and how to read and
  • 00:42:18
    write it's so great to see Olivia and
  • 00:42:21
    Andrea pedling their way out of extreme
  • 00:42:25
    poverty and they use the bicycle to go
  • 00:42:28
    to literacy classes education is so
  • 00:42:31
    important for the progress of people and
  • 00:42:34
    Nations but how many know what has
  • 00:42:38
    really happened with education in the
  • 00:42:40
    world time for the Great British
  • 00:42:42
    ignorance survey again here we go we
  • 00:42:45
    asked what percent of adults in the
  • 00:42:47
    world today are literate can read and
  • 00:42:51
    write can I ask the audience how many
  • 00:42:54
    guesss 20% hands up
  • 00:43:00
    40%
  • 00:43:03
    60% and
  • 00:43:06
    80% this is the result of the British
  • 00:43:13
    [Applause]
  • 00:43:15
    sample Now by now you can use the result
  • 00:43:18
    of the British survey to find out what
  • 00:43:20
    the right right answer is isn't it of
  • 00:43:23
    course it's 80% that is the right answer
  • 00:43:27
    at least you were clearly better than
  • 00:43:29
    the British
  • 00:43:30
    average just 80% of the population in
  • 00:43:33
    the world can read and write today
  • 00:43:35
    literacy is 80% actually the L figure is
  • 00:43:37
    a little
  • 00:43:39
    higher so if I would have compared that
  • 00:43:42
    with the shimps again you know so it's
  • 00:43:44
    once more you only get random results
  • 00:43:47
    from the shimps but you get three times
  • 00:43:50
    as many correct answers than you get
  • 00:43:51
    from the British and now the university
  • 00:43:55
    people
  • 00:43:57
    perhaps they know this oh even worse
  • 00:44:00
    what on Earth are they teaching at
  • 00:44:02
    British
  • 00:44:03
    universities the common view about the
  • 00:44:06
    world is outdated with several decades
  • 00:44:08
    the media have missed to communicate it
  • 00:44:11
    but perhaps this is because the world is
  • 00:44:14
    changing so fast ladies and gentlemen
  • 00:44:17
    I'm going to give you my alltime
  • 00:44:20
    favorite graph I'm going to show you the
  • 00:44:22
    history of 200 countries during 200
  • 00:44:26
    years in less than one
  • 00:44:28
    minute I have an access for income I
  • 00:44:32
    have an access for lifespan I start in
  • 00:44:36
    1800 and there are all the countries and
  • 00:44:39
    back in 1800 everyone was down in the
  • 00:44:42
    poor and sick Corner can you see low
  • 00:44:45
    lifespan little money and here comes the
  • 00:44:47
    effect of the Industrial Revolution of
  • 00:44:49
    course the countries in West Europe they
  • 00:44:51
    are coming to better wealth but they're
  • 00:44:53
    not getting much healthier in the
  • 00:44:54
    beginning and those on the colonial
  • 00:44:56
    domination doesn't benefit anything in
  • 00:44:58
    there they remain there in the sick and
  • 00:45:00
    poor corner and now health is improving
  • 00:45:03
    health is slowly improving here it's
  • 00:45:04
    getting up here and we are coming into
  • 00:45:06
    the new century and the terrible first
  • 00:45:08
    world war and then the economic
  • 00:45:10
    recession after that and then the second
  • 00:45:13
    world war and now independence and with
  • 00:45:17
    Independence health is improving faster
  • 00:45:19
    than it ever did in other countries Here
  • 00:45:21
    and Now starts the fast economic catchup
  • 00:45:24
    of China and other Latin American
  • 00:45:27
    countries they come on here you know and
  • 00:45:29
    India is following there and the African
  • 00:45:31
    countries is also following it's an
  • 00:45:33
    amazing change that that happened in the
  • 00:45:35
    world you know in the front here we have
  • 00:45:38
    now us and UK but they're not moving so
  • 00:45:42
    fast any longer the fast movers are here
  • 00:45:44
    in the middle China is moving very fast
  • 00:45:47
    to catch up and Bangladesh look
  • 00:45:49
    Bangladesh is already here now quite
  • 00:45:51
    healthy and now starting with fast
  • 00:45:54
    economic growth and mosambik yes mamb is
  • 00:45:56
    back there but they are not moving fast
  • 00:45:59
    in the right direction but all this I
  • 00:46:01
    show you is country
  • 00:46:04
    averages what about people have people
  • 00:46:08
    also got a better life I'm now going to
  • 00:46:10
    show you something which makes me very
  • 00:46:12
    excited that's a statistic I'm going to
  • 00:46:14
    show you income distribution the
  • 00:46:17
    difference between people uh and to do
  • 00:46:19
    that I take the bubbles back 50 years
  • 00:46:22
    and then we are going to look only at
  • 00:46:25
    money and to do that we have have to
  • 00:46:27
    expand and adjust the axis because the
  • 00:46:29
    richest is so rich and the poorest is so
  • 00:46:31
    poor so this will be bigger difference
  • 00:46:34
    than between the countries and what we
  • 00:46:35
    do now is that we let the country fall
  • 00:46:38
    down here this is United States and
  • 00:46:40
    spread to show the range within the
  • 00:46:42
    country and I take down all the
  • 00:46:45
    countries in the Americas and now you
  • 00:46:47
    can see from the richest person to the
  • 00:46:49
    poorest person and the height here shows
  • 00:46:52
    you how many there are on each income
  • 00:46:54
    level and now let's take down
  • 00:46:57
    Europe and on top of that I'm going to
  • 00:47:00
    put
  • 00:47:02
    Africa and finally the region with most
  • 00:47:05
    people on top of everything
  • 00:47:09
    Asia now in
  • 00:47:12
    1963 the world was constituted by two
  • 00:47:16
    humps first the richest hump is like a
  • 00:47:18
    camel isn't it the first hump here with
  • 00:47:21
    the richest is mainly Europe and the
  • 00:47:23
    Americas and the poorest hump over here
  • 00:47:26
    is is mainly Asia and Africa and the
  • 00:47:29
    poverty line was there can you see how
  • 00:47:33
    many people there were in extreme
  • 00:47:36
    poverty 50 years ago and most of them
  • 00:47:39
    were in Asia and people were saying Asia
  • 00:47:41
    will never get out of poverty exactly
  • 00:47:43
    some people are still saying about
  • 00:47:45
    Africa today now what has happened I
  • 00:47:48
    start the world and you can see that
  • 00:47:50
    many people are born into poverty here
  • 00:47:53
    but Asia goes towards higher income and
  • 00:47:55
    1 billion goes out of extreme poverty
  • 00:47:58
    this way and the whole shape of the
  • 00:48:00
    world change and the camel is dead it's
  • 00:48:04
    reborn as a
  • 00:48:07
    drader and what you can see here you
  • 00:48:10
    know is the variation from the riches
  • 00:48:13
    that it's most people in the middle and
  • 00:48:16
    there's a much smaller proportion of the
  • 00:48:19
    world now in extreme poverty but be
  • 00:48:21
    careful it's still a lot of people more
  • 00:48:24
    than one billion people in extreme
  • 00:48:25
    poverty now the question is can this
  • 00:48:29
    move out of extreme poverty now continue
  • 00:48:33
    for those in Africa and even for the new
  • 00:48:35
    billions in
  • 00:48:38
    Africa I think it's possible even
  • 00:48:41
    probable that most countries in Africa
  • 00:48:44
    will rise out of poverty too it will
  • 00:48:47
    need wise action and huge investment but
  • 00:48:51
    it can
  • 00:48:53
    happen the many countries of Africa are
  • 00:48:56
    not not all advancing at the same Pace a
  • 00:49:00
    few are moving very fast others are
  • 00:49:02
    stuck in Conflict but most like mozambik
  • 00:49:06
    are now making steady
  • 00:49:10
    progress and what about feeding all the
  • 00:49:13
    new African people in the future yes
  • 00:49:16
    there are shortages today but there is
  • 00:49:19
    also much potential
  • 00:49:21
    here agricultural yields in Africa are
  • 00:49:24
    just a fraction of what they could be
  • 00:49:27
    with better
  • 00:49:32
    technology and Africa's rivers are
  • 00:49:34
    barely tapped for
  • 00:49:36
    irrigation one day Africa could hum with
  • 00:49:40
    combine Harvesters and tractors and grow
  • 00:49:42
    food for many more
  • 00:49:45
    billions and please don't imagine it
  • 00:49:47
    just me who thinks Africa can make it
  • 00:49:51
    the United Nations is about to set
  • 00:49:53
    itself a new official goal a eliminating
  • 00:49:57
    extreme poverty within 20 years everyone
  • 00:50:01
    understand it's a huge challenge but I
  • 00:50:04
    seriously believe it's
  • 00:50:07
    possible imagine if that would happen
  • 00:50:10
    now what we have seen so far is that the
  • 00:50:13
    rich end it
  • 00:50:15
    moves and the middle it moves but this
  • 00:50:19
    poorest end is stuck it's here in
  • 00:50:22
    extreme poverty we find almost all the
  • 00:50:26
    illiteracy here we find high child
  • 00:50:28
    mortality and still many babies born per
  • 00:50:31
    woman it's like extreme poverty
  • 00:50:33
    reproduces itself if you don't end it
  • 00:50:38
    swiftly but Andre and Olivia and people
  • 00:50:41
    like them they work so hard to get away
  • 00:50:44
    from it and if they only can get the
  • 00:50:47
    right help from their government and
  • 00:50:49
    from The World At Large with things like
  • 00:50:52
    school health vaccines roads electricity
  • 00:50:58
    contraceptives then they will manage but
  • 00:51:01
    they will mainly manage by their own
  • 00:51:03
    hard work here we go you know go on
  • 00:51:08
    follow Andrea and Olivia across the line
  • 00:51:11
    you know it is possible within some
  • 00:51:14
    decades yes but getting out of poverty
  • 00:51:19
    is just the beginning people want to
  • 00:51:22
    continue along this line to a good life
  • 00:51:26
    but what does a good life
  • 00:51:29
    mean for most people in the world the
  • 00:51:32
    good life they are striving for will
  • 00:51:34
    mean more machines and much more use of
  • 00:51:37
    energy so there's a problem because all
  • 00:51:40
    this adds to one of the great threats
  • 00:51:43
    for the future severe climate
  • 00:51:46
    change 80% of the energy the world uses
  • 00:51:49
    is still fossil fuels and the science
  • 00:51:53
    shows that the climate may change
  • 00:51:55
    dramatically in the future because of
  • 00:51:58
    the carbon dioxide emission from
  • 00:52:00
    continuing to burn all these fossil
  • 00:52:05
    fuels I'm not the best person to tell
  • 00:52:08
    you how bad climate change will be nor
  • 00:52:11
    am I a specialist on how to prevent it
  • 00:52:14
    what I can do is to show you data to
  • 00:52:17
    make you understand who is the one that
  • 00:52:19
    emits the carbon dioxide I will show
  • 00:52:23
    this you remember the yards stick from
  • 00:52:27
    the poorest billion to the richest
  • 00:52:28
    billion from the one who hardly can
  • 00:52:30
    afford shoes to the one who fly with
  • 00:52:33
    airplanes now this
  • 00:52:37
    shows the total amount of fossil fuel
  • 00:52:40
    used in the world during one year coal
  • 00:52:43
    oil and natural gas and it represent
  • 00:52:46
    more or less the total emission of
  • 00:52:48
    carbon dioxide now how much of that is
  • 00:52:51
    used by the richest
  • 00:52:53
    billion half of it now the second
  • 00:52:57
    richest
  • 00:52:59
    billion half of what's left then you
  • 00:53:02
    understand what the third use half of
  • 00:53:04
    what left and the others use hardly
  • 00:53:07
    anything this is rounded numbers but it
  • 00:53:10
    clearly shows you know that almost all
  • 00:53:12
    the fossil fuel is used here by the one
  • 00:53:15
    two three richest billions more than 85%
  • 00:53:19
    they used now the richest billion here
  • 00:53:22
    at least have stopped increasing but we
  • 00:53:25
    are yet to see whether they will
  • 00:53:27
    decrease and in the coming decades it's
  • 00:53:30
    the economic growth of these two that
  • 00:53:33
    will increase the fossil fuel use and
  • 00:53:35
    the carbon dioxide emission even if
  • 00:53:38
    these ones over here come out of extreme
  • 00:53:40
    poverty and get richer all the way to
  • 00:53:42
    the motorbike that doesn't contribute
  • 00:53:44
    much to the emission of carbon dioxide
  • 00:53:48
    and regarding population growth most of
  • 00:53:50
    the additional billions in the next 40
  • 00:53:52
    years will be in this group here but
  • 00:53:55
    still if you all ask people in the
  • 00:53:57
    richest end they seem to get everything
  • 00:53:59
    wrong they look down on the world from
  • 00:54:02
    their very high emission and then they
  • 00:54:04
    say oh those over there you cannot live
  • 00:54:07
    like us you will destroy the
  • 00:54:10
    planet you see I find the argument from
  • 00:54:13
    the people here catching up to be much
  • 00:54:16
    more correct and logic they say huh who
  • 00:54:19
    are you to tell us that we can't live
  • 00:54:22
    like you you better change first if you
  • 00:54:25
    want us to do it
  • 00:54:29
    differently there are many Essentials to
  • 00:54:32
    having a good life that billions in the
  • 00:54:34
    world do not yet have Andrea's Village
  • 00:54:37
    and house and so many like them don't
  • 00:54:40
    even have
  • 00:54:42
    electricity mozambik has huge coal
  • 00:54:45
    reserves and if it and the other poorest
  • 00:54:48
    countries build affordable new power
  • 00:54:51
    stations burning coal for electricity in
  • 00:54:53
    the industry I don't think anyone who
  • 00:54:55
    emits more carbon should
  • 00:54:59
    interfere now what I'm going to do is
  • 00:55:01
    ask you two questions that I often ask
  • 00:55:04
    my Swedish students the first one is
  • 00:55:07
    this how many of you have not traveled
  • 00:55:10
    by an airplane this
  • 00:55:13
    year uhhuh quite a few can do without
  • 00:55:17
    flying so the next question is how many
  • 00:55:20
    of you have stayed away from washing
  • 00:55:22
    machines and you have hand washed all
  • 00:55:25
    bed sheets clothes and laundry during
  • 00:55:28
    the last
  • 00:55:29
    year I thought so no one everyone who
  • 00:55:34
    can afford use washing machine even the
  • 00:55:36
    hardcore in the environmental movement
  • 00:55:39
    and I still remember the day when my
  • 00:55:42
    family got the washing machine it was
  • 00:55:44
    the 1st of November
  • 00:55:46
    1952 grandma was invited to be the first
  • 00:55:50
    to load the machine she had handwash her
  • 00:55:52
    entire life for a family of nine and
  • 00:55:55
    when she loaded the machine she sat down
  • 00:55:58
    on a foot stol and she watched the
  • 00:56:01
    entire program during one hour she was
  • 00:56:04
    absolutely mesmerized for my mother it
  • 00:56:08
    also meant a lot of more free time to do
  • 00:56:11
    other things she could read books for me
  • 00:56:14
    I think that's what made me
  • 00:56:16
    Professor no wonder we said Thank You
  • 00:56:19
    steel meal thank you washing powder
  • 00:56:22
    Factory thank you electrical power
  • 00:56:24
    station
  • 00:56:29
    now when thinking
  • 00:56:31
    about where all this leave us I have
  • 00:56:34
    just one little humble advice to you
  • 00:56:37
    beside everything else look at the
  • 00:56:40
    data look at the facts about the world
  • 00:56:43
    and you will see where we are today and
  • 00:56:46
    how we can move forwards with all these
  • 00:56:48
    billions on our wonderful
  • 00:56:51
    Planet the challenge of extreme poverty
  • 00:56:54
    have been greatly reduced and it's for
  • 00:56:56
    the first time in history within our
  • 00:56:59
    power to end it for
  • 00:57:01
    good the challenge of population growth
  • 00:57:05
    is in fact already being solved the
  • 00:57:07
    number of children have stopped
  • 00:57:10
    growing and for the challenge of climate
  • 00:57:13
    change we can still avoid the
  • 00:57:16
    worst but that
  • 00:57:18
    requires that the richest as soon as
  • 00:57:23
    possible find a way to set their use of
  • 00:57:27
    resources and energy at a level that
  • 00:57:30
    step by step can be shared by 10
  • 00:57:33
    billions or 11 billions by the end of
  • 00:57:35
    this
  • 00:57:37
    Century I've never called myself an
  • 00:57:40
    optimist but I do say I'm a possibilist
  • 00:57:44
    and I also say the world is much better
  • 00:57:47
    than many of you think thank you very
  • 00:57:49
    much
  • 00:58:00
    [Music]
Tags
  • Population Growth
  • Demographics
  • Family Planning
  • Child Survival
  • Bangladesh
  • Education
  • Poverty Reduction
  • Climate Change
  • Global Development
  • Statistical Data