Stocks Market Surge! Is This the Start of a Major Rally?

00:44:27
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kwWxJOReM9o

Ringkasan

TLDRIn this video, the speaker analyzes the current market conditions, emphasizing the importance of understanding both technical indicators and market psychology. They argue against the idea that the market is in a bubble, citing strong earnings and a divergence between expectations and reality. The speaker discusses various technical indicators, such as rate of change and MACD, and highlights the significance of investor sentiment in influencing market behavior. Specific stocks, particularly in the tech sector, are recommended for observation, with a focus on trading strategies that adapt to market movements. Overall, the speaker encourages a balanced approach that considers both technical and fundamental aspects of the market.

Takeaways

  • 📈 The market is currently experiencing significant volatility.
  • 🔍 Understanding technical indicators is crucial for trading.
  • 💡 Investor sentiment can greatly influence market behavior.
  • 📊 Earnings reports are key to assessing stock performance.
  • ⚠️ The idea of a market bubble is debated and may not reflect reality.
  • 📉 Divergence between expectations and reality can signal market risks.
  • 🚀 Tech stocks, especially in the IGV sector, are worth watching.
  • 🔄 Adjusting trading strategies based on market conditions is essential.
  • 📉 The relationship between fundamentals and technicals is important for investors.
  • 🧠 Market psychology plays a critical role in trading decisions.

Garis waktu

  • 00:00:00 - 00:05:00

    The market is experiencing a pivotal week with significant meetings ahead, leading to cautious trading. Despite some viewing the market as a bubble, the speaker argues against this perspective, emphasizing the importance of understanding macroeconomic and technical factors.

  • 00:05:00 - 00:10:00

    The speaker analyzes the ES weekly chart, highlighting a bullish pattern and divergence between expectations and reality. They stress the importance of historical context in trading decisions and the need to align with market trends.

  • 00:10:00 - 00:15:00

    The rate of change indicator is discussed, indicating a potential buy signal. The speaker emphasizes the importance of monitoring this indicator on both weekly and daily charts to gauge market direction and avoid false signals.

  • 00:15:00 - 00:20:00

    The speaker notes the importance of the death cross in technical analysis, advising against impulsive selling and advocating for a more strategic approach to trading around these indicators.

  • 00:20:00 - 00:25:00

    The speaker discusses market breadth, emphasizing the significance of the NASDAQ 100's performance and the need to adapt trading strategies based on market conditions and internal dynamics.

  • 00:25:00 - 00:30:00

    The speaker highlights the importance of investor psychology in determining market trends, referencing Howard Marks' insights on bubbles and market sentiment. They stress the need to assess whether current market conditions reflect irrational exuberance.

  • 00:30:00 - 00:35:00

    The speaker analyzes consumer sentiment data, noting its historical correlation with market bottoms. They argue that current sentiment levels are skewed and do not align with the underlying economic data, suggesting a potential market opportunity.

  • 00:35:00 - 00:44:27

    The speaker concludes by discussing specific stocks and sectors, emphasizing the importance of monitoring key technical levels and market indicators to inform trading decisions. They highlight the potential for growth in the software sector and the need for careful analysis of market trends.

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Peta Pikiran

Video Tanya Jawab

  • What is the main focus of the video?

    The video focuses on the current state of the market, technical analysis, and market psychology.

  • What indicators does the speaker use for analysis?

    The speaker uses various technical indicators, including rate of change, MACD, and moving averages.

  • What is the speaker's opinion on the market being in a bubble?

    The speaker believes that the notion of being in a bubble is laughable and provides reasoning against it.

  • What stocks or sectors does the speaker recommend watching?

    The speaker recommends watching tech stocks, particularly those in the IGV sector, and mentions specific companies like Tesla and Nvidia.

  • How does the speaker view investor sentiment?

    The speaker emphasizes that investor sentiment plays a crucial role in market behavior and can often diverge from actual market conditions.

  • What trading strategies does the speaker suggest?

    The speaker suggests being cautious with trades, monitoring key levels, and being ready to adjust positions based on market movements.

  • What is the significance of earnings reports according to the speaker?

    Earnings reports are crucial as they can influence market sentiment and expectations, impacting stock prices.

  • How does the speaker interpret the current market trends?

    The speaker interprets current market trends as showing signs of potential bullish behavior, despite some uncertainties.

  • What does the speaker say about the relationship between technical analysis and fundamentals?

    The speaker believes both technical analysis and fundamentals are important for understanding market movements.

  • What is the speaker's advice for investors?

    The speaker advises investors to pay attention to market psychology, technical indicators, and to be prepared for market fluctuations.

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Teks
en
Gulir Otomatis:
  • 00:00:00
    This is our big week with all the
  • 00:00:02
    meetings and we can see that the market
  • 00:00:03
    really didn't want to do a lot ahead of
  • 00:00:06
    this. You can obviously see what
  • 00:00:07
    happened on Thursday trying to get
  • 00:00:09
    through this level where we all got
  • 00:00:10
    liberated on the second at the test, the
  • 00:00:13
    pullback, the test, and now we're just
  • 00:00:15
    sitting here and everyone's waiting by
  • 00:00:17
    baited breath to see how this is going
  • 00:00:19
    to go. But yet some huge developments
  • 00:00:21
    out there, not only with stuff like
  • 00:00:23
    smart money, dumb money, but there's a
  • 00:00:25
    lot of people that are looking at this
  • 00:00:27
    market, in my opinion, the wrong way,
  • 00:00:28
    where they're looking at this and
  • 00:00:29
    saying, "Oh, we're in a bubble." I'm
  • 00:00:30
    going to explain in great detail why
  • 00:00:32
    that's not the case. As always, it's my
  • 00:00:34
    opinion, but we're going to get into it
  • 00:00:35
    in some detail today on how to look at
  • 00:00:37
    this macroy, how to look at this on the
  • 00:00:39
    technical side. Um, I I do think you
  • 00:00:41
    have to look at the fundamentals of
  • 00:00:42
    what's going on as well, but let's clean
  • 00:00:43
    all this off for a second and then you
  • 00:00:45
    can just see the simplest of things. So
  • 00:00:47
    here is the ES on the weekly. You have
  • 00:00:50
    this huge down bar and then you have
  • 00:00:52
    this amazing piercing pattern and then
  • 00:00:54
    from there you just engulfed this other
  • 00:00:57
    bar right in there and then you just
  • 00:00:58
    lifted and broke out right over the top
  • 00:01:00
    of the control bar. So if this was
  • 00:01:02
    anything else most people would be
  • 00:01:03
    looking at this and saying, "Oh, we're
  • 00:01:05
    clearly pushing here." But you have this
  • 00:01:07
    massive divergence that I love to talk
  • 00:01:09
    about between expectations and reality
  • 00:01:11
    on what's going on. No one can argue
  • 00:01:13
    that earnings were fantastic. There's no
  • 00:01:15
    one out there that can say we didn't
  • 00:01:16
    have a good earnings quarter. We did. I
  • 00:01:18
    think technically you're wedged in here.
  • 00:01:20
    And I think you have difference between
  • 00:01:21
    outcome and expectations. And we're
  • 00:01:23
    going to talk about why that's really
  • 00:01:24
    dangerous for people and what side of
  • 00:01:26
    that you're going to want to be on. I
  • 00:01:27
    usually want to be on the side of
  • 00:01:28
    history, right? Because they're the ones
  • 00:01:30
    that get to the winners are the ones
  • 00:01:31
    that write it. So, but again, the
  • 00:01:33
    breakout sideways. One could even say
  • 00:01:35
    that you're forming a bull flag here
  • 00:01:36
    above that control bar. But wait,
  • 00:01:39
    there's even more. 27.5% of you that
  • 00:01:41
    watch these videos do not subscribe. I'm
  • 00:01:44
    not talking about even first-time
  • 00:01:45
    subscribers, but people that have
  • 00:01:46
    watched these videos for more than 30
  • 00:01:48
    days. YouTube gives you all these great
  • 00:01:50
    statistics. All these videos are
  • 00:01:51
    connected. They all link together. So,
  • 00:01:53
    when they start on Saturdays, it's like
  • 00:01:55
    following us through the week. I would
  • 00:01:56
    also click all notifications cuz these
  • 00:01:58
    videos, as you are aware, if you are a
  • 00:02:01
    longtime listener, first-time caller,
  • 00:02:03
    you know that they come out at different
  • 00:02:04
    times. All right, let's do it. Now, in
  • 00:02:06
    front of you is rate of change. And I do
  • 00:02:08
    like using this because it's very
  • 00:02:10
    telling to me. All I care about is
  • 00:02:12
    exactly what it says, the rate of
  • 00:02:14
    change. The rate of change right now is
  • 00:02:16
    going up. If you break a zero line on
  • 00:02:19
    rate of change, to me, it is a weekly
  • 00:02:21
    buy signal. If you look when you broke
  • 00:02:23
    the zero line right in here, you can see
  • 00:02:24
    from there you lifted these tests of the
  • 00:02:27
    zero line and then lifting off of it are
  • 00:02:29
    also buy signals. And you can see that
  • 00:02:31
    very clearly here. You test, retest, and
  • 00:02:34
    also breaks of this to the downside.
  • 00:02:37
    Yep. You put the brakes on and you want
  • 00:02:38
    to see what's going on. Sometimes you
  • 00:02:40
    get false positives on this. Sometimes
  • 00:02:42
    you don't get false positives. Like here
  • 00:02:44
    in August 23 when you broke, you went
  • 00:02:47
    down. When did you come back? When you
  • 00:02:49
    flipped it really in here. And there are
  • 00:02:51
    cleaner signals like when you start
  • 00:02:53
    lifting up through it and making higher
  • 00:02:55
    highs like you did here. You will get
  • 00:02:56
    cleaner signals like you did here. You
  • 00:02:58
    got that higher high signal and then
  • 00:03:00
    you've been lifting ever since. I also
  • 00:03:02
    do look at this on the daily. I think
  • 00:03:04
    that that's super important for people
  • 00:03:06
    to do. When you look at this on the
  • 00:03:07
    daily, from my perspective, I just don't
  • 00:03:09
    want to break the zero because if you
  • 00:03:11
    break the zero, then it means that the
  • 00:03:13
    rate of change that you're about to
  • 00:03:14
    experience is going to be negative. And
  • 00:03:16
    you don't know if you're going to get
  • 00:03:18
    the wonky stuff where you're just going
  • 00:03:19
    to trade sideways and then you have to
  • 00:03:20
    use the control bar as kind of a guide
  • 00:03:22
    or you're going to get these big draw
  • 00:03:24
    downs. You don't know what you're going
  • 00:03:26
    to get. You know, you just have to
  • 00:03:27
    monitor it in my opinion. And for that,
  • 00:03:30
    you could also use different kinds of
  • 00:03:31
    tools to see how this is going to go.
  • 00:03:33
    five. When we look at this on the daily
  • 00:03:35
    as well, we can see what we're doing.
  • 00:03:36
    We're kind of flatlining. I don't mind
  • 00:03:38
    the flat lining. Flatline all you want.
  • 00:03:40
    What we don't want here is on the daily
  • 00:03:42
    to break that zero line. And certainly
  • 00:03:44
    this is really important because I just
  • 00:03:46
    went through it on the ES. You're
  • 00:03:48
    crossing. Well, you're trying to cross
  • 00:03:51
    now between what we have going on with
  • 00:03:53
    the Treasury Secretary over there and
  • 00:03:54
    all the rhetoric coming out here. Are we
  • 00:03:57
    going to break out? Are we not going to
  • 00:03:58
    break out? I I think you have to lean
  • 00:04:00
    towards the fact that yeah, you have a
  • 00:04:02
    shot here, but there's a lot of other
  • 00:04:04
    moving parts to this. Now, if you take a
  • 00:04:06
    look at that wick from there, which is
  • 00:04:08
    the peak VWAP, you're kind of sitting
  • 00:04:10
    there and you didn't really get through
  • 00:04:11
    it. Drop it through the daily and you
  • 00:04:14
    can see that you're sitting right at
  • 00:04:15
    that peak kind of level as well and
  • 00:04:17
    you're unable to get through that. So,
  • 00:04:20
    this is of course an issue. And there's
  • 00:04:22
    some other stuff here that I think is
  • 00:04:24
    worth mentioning before I start getting
  • 00:04:25
    into some other indicators that I think
  • 00:04:27
    are super helpful. Let's take that off
  • 00:04:29
    for a sec. And what I want to do here is
  • 00:04:30
    just drop the 200. Drop it like it's
  • 00:04:32
    hot. The kids still say that, right? So
  • 00:04:34
    when you have this NDX sitting here and
  • 00:04:36
    you bonk and you bonk and you bonk,
  • 00:04:38
    right? Complete matumbo three times. You
  • 00:04:40
    have the dogee. Dogeis are signs of
  • 00:04:42
    uncertainty. This being resistance makes
  • 00:04:45
    a lot of sense. And the reason it makes
  • 00:04:47
    a lot of sense is because you have a
  • 00:04:48
    death cross. As I like to say, and I
  • 00:04:50
    like people to understand, once you
  • 00:04:52
    break the death cross from here, let's
  • 00:04:54
    get rid. Once you break a death cross,
  • 00:04:56
    most people are like, "Oh, I got to
  • 00:04:57
    short the death cross." No, you that's
  • 00:04:59
    not what you do. You wait for it to
  • 00:05:01
    retest this level. When it gets up here,
  • 00:05:03
    that is your resistance and it's acting
  • 00:05:05
    like resistance. So, this death cross is
  • 00:05:07
    doing what it's supposed to do. People
  • 00:05:09
    come out and say, "Oh, you just sell the
  • 00:05:10
    death cross. It's the dumbest thing you
  • 00:05:12
    could do." So, what you do is you wait
  • 00:05:13
    and this gets into reflexivity, outcome
  • 00:05:15
    versus expectation. And then people
  • 00:05:17
    don't understand like why then they're
  • 00:05:19
    they short and then why this happened.
  • 00:05:20
    So, again, here you are. So, you have to
  • 00:05:22
    respect and go, "Hey, I do have a death
  • 00:05:24
    cross. Hey, it did hold here. Am I going
  • 00:05:26
    to flip?" And you could say, "Yeah,
  • 00:05:28
    well, we're going to put a lot of other
  • 00:05:29
    indicators in here. We're going to look
  • 00:05:30
    at this. Maybe the 12 cross and the 22
  • 00:05:33
    screaming up might make you think that,
  • 00:05:35
    yeah, there is that going on." And yeah,
  • 00:05:37
    we are going to flip it and we are
  • 00:05:39
    seeing signs of that. Sure. But you have
  • 00:05:41
    to respect that. And and you also have
  • 00:05:43
    to take a look at it here from my
  • 00:05:44
    perspective on the S&P and realize that
  • 00:05:46
    you have the same thing going on. Now,
  • 00:05:48
    here it is up here and you're not near
  • 00:05:50
    it. Also, we always look at the breath,
  • 00:05:52
    but you can look at the breath too on
  • 00:05:53
    the NASDAQ 100. And that is just NDT.
  • 00:05:57
    And everybody should have this on no
  • 00:05:58
    matter what platform you have. Now, I
  • 00:06:01
    don't really look at moving averages on
  • 00:06:03
    this. What I look for is demarcation
  • 00:06:05
    lines. And what you'll find if you take
  • 00:06:07
    the time is by putting this out here,
  • 00:06:09
    you're going to see real clear that you
  • 00:06:11
    have an issue where if you're under the
  • 00:06:14
    50% line on stocks that are in the
  • 00:06:16
    NASDAQ 100 versus stocks that are above
  • 00:06:18
    it, that's your demarcation line. You
  • 00:06:20
    will note that the day that you broke
  • 00:06:22
    this on March 10th, your life never got
  • 00:06:24
    better if you were a long trader, right?
  • 00:06:25
    I mean, you could have traded around it,
  • 00:06:26
    but if you were one of those guys that,
  • 00:06:28
    you know, spray and pray or buy and
  • 00:06:30
    hold, all of a sudden you weren't as
  • 00:06:32
    smart. It got harder. You actually had
  • 00:06:33
    to learn how to trade. That's a very
  • 00:06:35
    different kind of market versus up here
  • 00:06:38
    and everything's rosy and you know I
  • 00:06:40
    just need to buy dips over and over
  • 00:06:41
    again. That's why those strategies, the
  • 00:06:43
    same strategies that worked in here
  • 00:06:45
    don't work when you've broken things
  • 00:06:47
    like this because why? The internals
  • 00:06:49
    have changed. So people are using the
  • 00:06:50
    wrong tools. You have a trending market
  • 00:06:52
    up here versus a non-trending market. If
  • 00:06:54
    you don't stick with the flips, that's
  • 00:06:56
    when you start running into issues. And
  • 00:06:58
    I cannot stress that enough. I really
  • 00:07:01
    would focus on this and I would watch
  • 00:07:02
    this like a hawk. I tend to focus on the
  • 00:07:05
    breath here. Let's flip to this. Um, and
  • 00:07:07
    for me, the breath is doing what it
  • 00:07:09
    needs to do on the I'm above the 50%
  • 00:07:11
    line, which makes sense. Uh, the we're
  • 00:07:13
    flatlining on the 20 now, which is good.
  • 00:07:15
    And the five is dropping, which is good.
  • 00:07:17
    If the five drops and the 20 flat lines
  • 00:07:19
    and the 50 and the 200 keep doing what
  • 00:07:22
    they're doing, that means we're
  • 00:07:23
    rotation. Rotations are sign of quite
  • 00:07:26
    frankly a bull market, whether or not
  • 00:07:27
    you want to. Um, and we're going to get
  • 00:07:28
    into that some detail here. But what
  • 00:07:30
    you're seeing is you're seeing exactly
  • 00:07:32
    what you want to see. This is perfect.
  • 00:07:34
    When you see this, you need to pay
  • 00:07:35
    attention to it. I cannot stress that
  • 00:07:38
    enough. When you see this, you want to
  • 00:07:39
    pay attention to it. It's doing what it
  • 00:07:41
    needs to do. I'd like to see us flip
  • 00:07:43
    through this 50% as well up here as on
  • 00:07:47
    the
  • 00:07:48
    NDT. But I want to go back to these
  • 00:07:50
    indicators. One of the things I like to
  • 00:07:52
    use a lot is the New York composite and
  • 00:07:54
    then the Mlen summation. Not just the
  • 00:07:56
    oscillator, but the summation. And this
  • 00:07:58
    is telling you pretty much no. Uh, I'm
  • 00:08:00
    just going to point out the obvious and
  • 00:08:01
    then you can tell me why I'm wrong in
  • 00:08:03
    the comments, which people love to do,
  • 00:08:04
    which I do appreciate cuz I want to hear
  • 00:08:06
    other people's opinion. But I'm not
  • 00:08:08
    going to get into what the summation is.
  • 00:08:09
    We've done it too many times at
  • 00:08:10
    Nauseium. You can see right here that
  • 00:08:12
    you already flipped this level, which to
  • 00:08:15
    us is a positive divergence because it's
  • 00:08:18
    already telling you that the breath here
  • 00:08:20
    and how this is expanding is
  • 00:08:22
    significantly better here than it was
  • 00:08:25
    there. But that makes no sense, right?
  • 00:08:27
    Say it. He's got to flip. So your breath
  • 00:08:29
    is better here than it was here, but
  • 00:08:32
    you're not higher. So this is going to
  • 00:08:34
    take time. You, everyone knows this. You
  • 00:08:35
    take the window down and you take the
  • 00:08:37
    stairs up. And that's great if you're a
  • 00:08:39
    long-term buyer. It gives you
  • 00:08:41
    opportunity. I do think you need to be
  • 00:08:42
    cognizant of this. And do we get to the
  • 00:08:44
    zero line? Do we flip that? Or do we hit
  • 00:08:47
    the zero line and get matumboed? That
  • 00:08:49
    can happen. I I would say historically
  • 00:08:52
    if you look at this, can it happen? It's
  • 00:08:55
    happened before. It h it's happened back
  • 00:08:57
    here where you were grossly oversold,
  • 00:08:58
    rallied to the zero, rejected before
  • 00:09:01
    flipping it. And it's not like it's a be
  • 00:09:02
    all end all where all of a sudden your
  • 00:09:04
    life is better. But there are things
  • 00:09:06
    here that you want to pay attention to.
  • 00:09:08
    Like it's it's a thing. It's not the
  • 00:09:11
    thing. It's a thing. But yeah, I pay
  • 00:09:13
    attention to that. Like when I when I
  • 00:09:15
    see stuff like this, yeah, when you
  • 00:09:17
    broke here and then you were still going
  • 00:09:19
    up, I definitely pay attention to it. So
  • 00:09:21
    when I break that and then I see it
  • 00:09:22
    coincide with something like this, yeah,
  • 00:09:25
    that's super important to me and it is
  • 00:09:27
    something that I think is worth your
  • 00:09:28
    attention, worth your time. And so
  • 00:09:29
    that's just ml summation, but there's
  • 00:09:31
    more with the index. Now, I like using
  • 00:09:34
    the histogram. If you watch this
  • 00:09:36
    channel, you know that I do look at the
  • 00:09:37
    MACD on certain times, just the lines,
  • 00:09:40
    and I just use it for a confirmation.
  • 00:09:42
    What is really going on out there? So
  • 00:09:44
    you can see the low here on the MACD.
  • 00:09:46
    You can see that you're over the zero
  • 00:09:48
    line on the MACD. Does that mean that
  • 00:09:50
    we're out of the woods? No. You still
  • 00:09:51
    have the 200 up here. And this can
  • 00:09:53
    always roll over again after getting up
  • 00:09:55
    here. But you have flipped it. So you
  • 00:09:57
    are above with the MACD itself and the
  • 00:09:59
    signal line. You can see before how if
  • 00:10:02
    you're under this, it's super important
  • 00:10:03
    to get. What else I really like to do
  • 00:10:05
    with this kind of stuff is just drop a
  • 00:10:08
    pin, which gives me a line, and say,
  • 00:10:10
    "Hey, have we been down here before?"
  • 00:10:11
    The fact that the MACD is this oversold.
  • 00:10:14
    And and I'm going to say this on a lot
  • 00:10:15
    in this video today. The fact that I've
  • 00:10:17
    got worse oversold indicators during
  • 00:10:20
    tariff talks than I do for a global
  • 00:10:23
    pandemic is absolute insanity that I
  • 00:10:26
    have more panic here for tariff talks
  • 00:10:28
    than I had for a global pandemic. And
  • 00:10:30
    this really speaks to where people are
  • 00:10:32
    as far as fear. And you're going to see
  • 00:10:34
    this in other data like Michigan
  • 00:10:36
    consumer sentiment. When you start
  • 00:10:37
    seeing these overlays, it's absolutely
  • 00:10:39
    crazy to me on on how people are looking
  • 00:10:41
    at this stuff, right? And I'm not saying
  • 00:10:43
    that they're wrong. Maybe they're saying
  • 00:10:45
    something. So, you always have to think
  • 00:10:46
    this way. Like maybe they're saying
  • 00:10:47
    something that I'm not saying. So, let
  • 00:10:49
    me just drop that one to the zero line.
  • 00:10:51
    I should just actually highlight the
  • 00:10:52
    zero line, you know, myself, but right
  • 00:10:54
    around there. But the same thing you're
  • 00:10:56
    going to see and look at this. Watch the
  • 00:10:58
    same thing you're going to see here
  • 00:10:59
    where here you are and then here. So,
  • 00:11:01
    why the panic in the NASDAQ versus this?
  • 00:11:04
    And does that mean that you should be
  • 00:11:06
    looking at this and saying, "Oh, that
  • 00:11:07
    means that you should be buying the S&P
  • 00:11:09
    versus the NASDAQ." No. I would say that
  • 00:11:11
    what you what it's really telling you by
  • 00:11:14
    looking at the same thing here as you
  • 00:11:15
    just looked at here. I would argue that
  • 00:11:18
    no, it means that there was a huge
  • 00:11:20
    overreaction in tech that was greater
  • 00:11:22
    than anything that you just saw in the
  • 00:11:24
    S&P. And that would lead me to believe
  • 00:11:26
    that I would rather go out there and buy
  • 00:11:29
    tech cuz there was a gross overreaction
  • 00:11:31
    to it. Now, the reaction is the
  • 00:11:33
    reaction. So people can say, well, how
  • 00:11:34
    can the reaction be over? I would and
  • 00:11:36
    that's that's very true. Now, I want to
  • 00:11:39
    show this on the weekly, too, because
  • 00:11:40
    you got to look at these weekly charts
  • 00:11:42
    right now. And and that's very true.
  • 00:11:43
    See, like you broke here on the weekly.
  • 00:11:45
    You really don't want to do this. But
  • 00:11:46
    again, you have that zero line here, and
  • 00:11:47
    this is going to start driving me nuts.
  • 00:11:48
    Draw my zero line. I'm not really sure
  • 00:11:50
    why I rid of the zero. What we'll do is
  • 00:11:52
    we'll uh do zero lines. Oh, that's there
  • 00:11:54
    we go. Yay. In in my situation here and
  • 00:11:56
    looking at this, I don't really want to
  • 00:11:57
    break that that zero line out at all.
  • 00:12:00
    What I want to do, I just want to make
  • 00:12:02
    sure that I'm above it. There's certain
  • 00:12:03
    things here like I don't really care
  • 00:12:04
    that it's trading and it's not lift.
  • 00:12:06
    That doesn't mean anything. What means
  • 00:12:08
    something to me is when I broke that
  • 00:12:09
    zero line because I know flipping the
  • 00:12:10
    zero line is when everything starts
  • 00:12:13
    getting like groovy again. I do know
  • 00:12:14
    that and that's a sign for me. It does
  • 00:12:16
    take a long time for that to happen. But
  • 00:12:18
    it's definitely important. Now, if you
  • 00:12:20
    go and take a look at the cues, you're
  • 00:12:21
    going to see that you're in the same
  • 00:12:22
    boat. NDX, you're in the same boat.
  • 00:12:25
    That's that's definitely an issue. And I
  • 00:12:27
    just want to point out how on some
  • 00:12:29
    levels how nuts this is where yeah
  • 00:12:31
    here's the weekly NDX and I got to the
  • 00:12:34
    point where I was at a 28 reading which
  • 00:12:36
    got us to these levels down here which
  • 00:12:38
    bottomed before in 22 but the panic here
  • 00:12:42
    and and get don't get me wrong this was
  • 00:12:43
    the slow grind where no one was ever
  • 00:12:45
    going to use a computer again and this
  • 00:12:47
    was really hard to compare because you
  • 00:12:48
    just had itchy jumping like 1.7.8
  • 00:12:51
    trillion dollars on the American people
  • 00:12:53
    um you know when they kept selling the
  • 00:12:55
    Fed balance sheet down. So what you have
  • 00:12:57
    here is you have an a situation which I
  • 00:13:00
    think is much more comparable. I mean we
  • 00:13:01
    don't usually go straight like that but
  • 00:13:03
    that's what happens when the government
  • 00:13:04
    just buys everything. You know JPEGs
  • 00:13:05
    become um NFT NFPS or whatever. Good
  • 00:13:08
    luck with that. Anyway um if you see how
  • 00:13:10
    this is going here April 7th and and the
  • 00:13:12
    bounce that you're getting on this stuff
  • 00:13:14
    I think it's super important to get that
  • 00:13:16
    concept out there. Now if I take a look
  • 00:13:18
    at this on the daily again oh I'm above
  • 00:13:21
    that level which means I'm no longer
  • 00:13:23
    what? I'm no longer oversold and now I'm
  • 00:13:25
    going towards overbought. That's an area
  • 00:13:27
    of interest as well. But you really have
  • 00:13:29
    to focus on this and go, all right,
  • 00:13:31
    well, I get that, but at the same time,
  • 00:13:33
    and here you are in the weekly and you
  • 00:13:34
    can see this and look at the move again
  • 00:13:36
    commensurate with the difference in the
  • 00:13:38
    NDX. It's worse here than it was before,
  • 00:13:41
    which is why I'm leaning there. What I
  • 00:13:43
    would take from this and what I think
  • 00:13:44
    super important for people to get from
  • 00:13:46
    this is that when you see these kinds of
  • 00:13:48
    divergences, you really want to pay
  • 00:13:50
    attention to it. I get looking at this
  • 00:13:51
    stuff and I understand that, you know, I
  • 00:13:54
    started this whole premise with, hey,
  • 00:13:56
    you have to watch these averages up in
  • 00:13:58
    here. Super important. But you also have
  • 00:14:00
    to look at the underlying fundamentals.
  • 00:14:01
    Like why is the dollar all of a sudden
  • 00:14:03
    getting back over that 100? Is that
  • 00:14:06
    something of substance? Why is gold
  • 00:14:08
    doing what it's doing where you're
  • 00:14:10
    clearly starting to form what? I mean,
  • 00:14:12
    it's very clear you're forming a top.
  • 00:14:14
    anyone that can see this doesn't mean
  • 00:14:15
    that it some news can't hit and affect
  • 00:14:17
    that top, but here's the divergence back
  • 00:14:19
    here and then here it is just getting
  • 00:14:21
    worse and worse as this goes on. I mean,
  • 00:14:23
    you're falling off a cliff up. Super
  • 00:14:25
    important to get and at the same time,
  • 00:14:27
    why are we seeing something like Bitcoin
  • 00:14:28
    just absolutely rip people's heads off
  • 00:14:30
    today? Um, and be setting up these bull
  • 00:14:32
    flags that look like you're going to
  • 00:14:33
    take out all-time highs. We're going to
  • 00:14:35
    get to all that, but the most important
  • 00:14:36
    thing you should be taking from this is,
  • 00:14:38
    you know, this talk of are we in a
  • 00:14:40
    bubble? I I personally just come out
  • 00:14:42
    with my own opinion. you have to make
  • 00:14:43
    your own. I think it's laughable, but
  • 00:14:45
    the I read a lot and I'm going to give
  • 00:14:47
    you some excerpts here of something that
  • 00:14:50
    I read in a shareholder letter that came
  • 00:14:52
    out and I think it would really help
  • 00:14:54
    you. In front of you is an excerpt and
  • 00:14:56
    it is from a letter written by Oak Tree
  • 00:14:59
    Howard Marx. And this was actually in
  • 00:15:01
    February. But what I do is I put all
  • 00:15:03
    these newsletters and everything that I
  • 00:15:05
    get, all my research and I pretty much
  • 00:15:07
    get every piece of research on the
  • 00:15:08
    street. I know it sounds nuts, but I get
  • 00:15:10
    them all and then I put them into
  • 00:15:11
    Dropbox and then I save them and then I
  • 00:15:12
    can sort for them. It helps me a lot to
  • 00:15:14
    keep everything collectively together
  • 00:15:17
    and then I can draw back on it. And this
  • 00:15:19
    was a really good example. A lot of
  • 00:15:20
    people keep using these terms bubble,
  • 00:15:22
    crash, etc. Um, Howard Marx has been
  • 00:15:24
    around for about 50 years at this point
  • 00:15:27
    and seen a lot of things and and he's
  • 00:15:29
    really looks more at the credit markets
  • 00:15:30
    and the income markets, but he's been
  • 00:15:32
    around forever. And what's important
  • 00:15:34
    about this is a lot of people are
  • 00:15:35
    looking at the market right now and
  • 00:15:36
    saying it's a bubble. I think you need
  • 00:15:38
    to really take a step back and look at
  • 00:15:41
    this and say, are we in a bubble? Are we
  • 00:15:43
    not? And what I'm referring to here is
  • 00:15:45
    the AI bubble and is that true? Is the
  • 00:15:48
    stock market currently in a bubble? Is
  • 00:15:50
    the NASDAQ in a bubble? Whatever you
  • 00:15:51
    think's in a bubble, I think this
  • 00:15:53
    criteria when you look at it is very
  • 00:15:55
    helpful. So, there's a couple slides
  • 00:15:56
    here and then I'm going to give you
  • 00:15:57
    examples of where we actually are right
  • 00:15:59
    now and then you can look at the data
  • 00:16:01
    yourself and how I'm viewing it and we
  • 00:16:03
    can go from there. But what he talks
  • 00:16:04
    about here is the investment lingo and
  • 00:16:06
    how it's thrown around and how people
  • 00:16:08
    say bubble and crash whether we're down
  • 00:16:09
    80 basis points or whether we're up two
  • 00:16:12
    2%. And I do think they're thrown around
  • 00:16:14
    a little too much. But one of the things
  • 00:16:15
    is the mainstream media uses them
  • 00:16:17
    broadly. I agree with what he's saying
  • 00:16:18
    here. Consider them to be subjective and
  • 00:16:20
    not objective. And I want to tie this
  • 00:16:22
    together to you'll remember Wednesday's
  • 00:16:24
    video when I used the the phrase that I
  • 00:16:26
    use a lot which is reflexivity and
  • 00:16:29
    explaining how I look at things. you
  • 00:16:31
    know, where the outcome is versus the
  • 00:16:33
    expectations, why trading on earnings is
  • 00:16:35
    so profitable. You can go back and look
  • 00:16:37
    at that on Wednesday's video. It's why I
  • 00:16:39
    tell everyone that when you get into
  • 00:16:40
    these videos, you want to make sure that
  • 00:16:42
    you subscribe to the channel, click all
  • 00:16:43
    notifications, because they're all
  • 00:16:45
    linked. They'll stay linked and then
  • 00:16:46
    they just move as time moves. There's
  • 00:16:48
    parts of this that are exactly what I'm
  • 00:16:50
    talking about where when you've been
  • 00:16:52
    doing this forever, and I have been
  • 00:16:53
    doing this for 50 years. I think it's
  • 00:16:54
    going on 26 now. But when you're looking
  • 00:16:56
    at things like this where this is such
  • 00:16:58
    an important line and people are going
  • 00:17:00
    to just go right over it. Today the
  • 00:17:02
    mainstream media uses them broadly.
  • 00:17:03
    People are considering subjective to
  • 00:17:05
    objective. Tell you enough that it's
  • 00:17:07
    state of mind. It's psychology and it's
  • 00:17:10
    where the masses are that makes the
  • 00:17:11
    difference. A bubble or crash is more a
  • 00:17:13
    state of mind than a quantitative
  • 00:17:16
    calculation. End of sentence. Could not
  • 00:17:18
    agree more with what he's saying here.
  • 00:17:19
    In my view, a bubble not only reflects
  • 00:17:21
    the rapid rise in stock prices, but is a
  • 00:17:23
    temporary mania characterized by or
  • 00:17:26
    perhaps better resulting from the
  • 00:17:27
    following. Highly irrational exuberant.
  • 00:17:29
    Uh Greenspan did say this back in the
  • 00:17:31
    day. Back in the day. Uh and the whole
  • 00:17:33
    market panicked for about an hour before
  • 00:17:35
    it went right back up. Outright
  • 00:17:36
    adoration of the subject, companies or
  • 00:17:38
    assets and belief that they can't miss.
  • 00:17:40
    Massive fear of being left behind. And
  • 00:17:42
    if one fails to participate, FOMO
  • 00:17:45
    resulting conviction for these stocks,
  • 00:17:46
    there is no price too high. What I think
  • 00:17:49
    is really good about having these and
  • 00:17:50
    what you might want to do is just
  • 00:17:51
    screenshot these is taking a look at any
  • 00:17:54
    time in history. For example, taking a
  • 00:17:55
    look at right now and do you see any of
  • 00:17:57
    these signs? It doesn't matter what I
  • 00:17:59
    think. I have my opinion. It matters
  • 00:18:01
    what you think. But I would really focus
  • 00:18:02
    on this and look at it and go, do you
  • 00:18:04
    have irrational exuberance? Does
  • 00:18:05
    everyone feel that they have to be in
  • 00:18:07
    the market right now? Does everyone love
  • 00:18:08
    tech right now? Does everyone feel like
  • 00:18:10
    they're missing out? Is everyone willing
  • 00:18:12
    to pay anything to be in these names
  • 00:18:14
    right now? And what I love about when
  • 00:18:15
    these guys write is they give you books
  • 00:18:17
    because all everyone that's been in the
  • 00:18:19
    industry just they they usually are
  • 00:18:20
    pretty avid readers. And so what like
  • 00:18:22
    his one's maniacs, panics, crashes, a
  • 00:18:25
    history of financial crisis. Uh there's
  • 00:18:26
    not there is nothing so disturbing to
  • 00:18:28
    one's well-being and judgment as seeing
  • 00:18:30
    a friend get rich. No price too high
  • 00:18:32
    stands out in particular when you can't
  • 00:18:34
    imagine any flaws in the argument and
  • 00:18:36
    you are terrified that your office mate,
  • 00:18:37
    golf partner, brother-in-law, and
  • 00:18:39
    competitor will own the asset in
  • 00:18:41
    question and you won't. It's hard to
  • 00:18:42
    conclude that there's a price which you
  • 00:18:44
    shouldn't pay or buy. It's kind of
  • 00:18:45
    interesting. So to discern a bubble, you
  • 00:18:47
    can look at the valuation parameters,
  • 00:18:49
    but I've long believed psychological
  • 00:18:51
    diagnosis is more effective. I've said
  • 00:18:53
    this a million times. People look at the
  • 00:18:55
    PE and say the PE is here, the PE is
  • 00:18:56
    there. That's relative to what people
  • 00:18:58
    are willing to pay for. Whenever I hear
  • 00:19:00
    there's no price too high or one of its
  • 00:19:01
    variants, a more disciplined investor
  • 00:19:03
    might say, but of course there's a price
  • 00:19:04
    that's too high, but we're not there
  • 00:19:06
    yet. I consider it a sure sign that a
  • 00:19:08
    bubble is brewing. Obviously, we're not
  • 00:19:09
    hearing that right now. He got this
  • 00:19:10
    advice 50 years ago and he shares it.
  • 00:19:12
    And again, this is why I love reading
  • 00:19:14
    these letters because, you know,
  • 00:19:15
    everything just repeats itself. It's
  • 00:19:16
    just the new thing. Um, it's always the
  • 00:19:18
    new thing. You know, back then it was
  • 00:19:19
    probably a copy machine or a fax, a
  • 00:19:21
    buggy whip. You just go through the the
  • 00:19:23
    the whole thing through time. Anyway,
  • 00:19:24
    I've written about this several memos,
  • 00:19:26
    but in my opinion, I can't do it often
  • 00:19:28
    enough. There are three stages of a bull
  • 00:19:30
    market. The first stage usually comes on
  • 00:19:32
    the hear of a market decline. cough,
  • 00:19:34
    cough, nudge, nudge, wink, wink, or a
  • 00:19:36
    crash and has left the most investors
  • 00:19:38
    licking their wounds and highly
  • 00:19:39
    dispirited. At this point, only a few
  • 00:19:41
    unusually insightful people are capable
  • 00:19:43
    of imagining that there could possibly
  • 00:19:45
    be improvement ahead. The second stage,
  • 00:19:47
    the economy, companies, and markets are
  • 00:19:49
    doing well. Most people accept that
  • 00:19:51
    improvement is actually taking place. In
  • 00:19:53
    the third stage, after a period in which
  • 00:19:54
    the economic news has been great,
  • 00:19:56
    companies have reported soaring
  • 00:19:57
    earnings, and stocks have appreciated
  • 00:19:59
    wildly, everyone concludes that things
  • 00:20:01
    can only get better forever. So if you
  • 00:20:03
    had a list like this and you had to look
  • 00:20:05
    at the market at any given time, you'd
  • 00:20:06
    have to kind of conclude what stage of
  • 00:20:08
    the market you're in right now. Now, the
  • 00:20:10
    document was about 16 pages long, so I
  • 00:20:12
    just took a couple excerpts out of the
  • 00:20:14
    important inferences aren't with regard
  • 00:20:16
    to economic or corporate events. Super
  • 00:20:19
    important. They involve investor
  • 00:20:22
    psychology. It's not a matter of what's
  • 00:20:24
    happening in the macro world. It's how
  • 00:20:26
    people view the development. So, one of
  • 00:20:28
    the things that I always say in the
  • 00:20:30
    community is the following. cuz there's
  • 00:20:32
    this bias. Let's say you have good
  • 00:20:33
    earnings and then all of a sudden that
  • 00:20:35
    stock goes up. Well, you would expect
  • 00:20:38
    that stock to go up on good earnings.
  • 00:20:40
    That would be the expectation and then
  • 00:20:42
    that would be the outcome. But what if
  • 00:20:44
    the exact opposite happens and the
  • 00:20:46
    earnings come out and the stock well
  • 00:20:48
    that would tell you that the sentiment
  • 00:20:50
    of the market is the issue, not the
  • 00:20:52
    earnings. See, everyone believes just
  • 00:20:54
    because you have good earnings that
  • 00:20:55
    you're going to go up. That's not the
  • 00:20:57
    case. That's an assumption. It's a it's
  • 00:20:59
    a it's a logical assumption. There we go
  • 00:21:01
    again thinking. But it's it's not the
  • 00:21:03
    case. Sometimes companies could be way
  • 00:21:05
    ahead of themselves and actually pull
  • 00:21:06
    back. And the exact opposite could
  • 00:21:08
    happen too. They could have gotten
  • 00:21:10
    absolutely smoked for no reason like we
  • 00:21:12
    just saw recently on a lot of names. And
  • 00:21:14
    what what tends to happen when they just
  • 00:21:16
    even do the simplest of things. The
  • 00:21:18
    stocks on bad earnings actually do what?
  • 00:21:20
    They actually wind up going up. Super
  • 00:21:23
    important concept to get because it's
  • 00:21:25
    not just about the stool which we talk
  • 00:21:28
    about the macro, the fundamental, and
  • 00:21:29
    the technical. It's not just about that
  • 00:21:31
    what part of this we're sitting on. It's
  • 00:21:33
    our perception of it and how it's
  • 00:21:35
    perceived. So it's not just a matter of
  • 00:21:37
    what's happening in the macro world.
  • 00:21:39
    It's how people view that development.
  • 00:21:41
    And I can give you examples of this. I
  • 00:21:42
    can give you really good examples of
  • 00:21:44
    this quite frankly on the macro side
  • 00:21:45
    that will be as someone likes to say
  • 00:21:47
    absolutely glaring. Sometimes some
  • 00:21:49
    things are just glaringly obvious. So
  • 00:21:52
    let's let's look at this thesis a little
  • 00:21:53
    bit and see what we see. So in front of
  • 00:21:55
    us we have Michigan consumer sentiment.
  • 00:21:57
    And what I love about the market is
  • 00:21:58
    they'll take a turn, they'll say
  • 00:22:00
    something, any turn, and they'll try to
  • 00:22:02
    spin it. And then they'll take something
  • 00:22:04
    that we all know what it is, and then
  • 00:22:06
    they'll change the terminology. That's
  • 00:22:08
    the new thing. Soft data, hard data.
  • 00:22:10
    Soft, all right, soft data is sediment.
  • 00:22:12
    Sediment indicators are what people
  • 00:22:15
    think are going to happen. It's not that
  • 00:22:17
    we're calling it soft data, but it's
  • 00:22:18
    sediment data. It's always been, why is
  • 00:22:20
    Michigan consumer sentiment doing XYZ?
  • 00:22:22
    Well, this is how people feel. That's
  • 00:22:24
    why it's doing what it's doing. So up
  • 00:22:26
    top is Michigan consumer sentiment. One
  • 00:22:28
    of the books that I have told people
  • 00:22:29
    that I've read and helped me greatly
  • 00:22:31
    understand this stuff in these cycles
  • 00:22:33
    was reading the hedge fund edge by John
  • 00:22:35
    Bucher. I would strongly suggest that
  • 00:22:37
    you read it. What I have here is just us
  • 00:22:39
    going back through time. And what we'll
  • 00:22:41
    do here is how far back we can go back
  • 00:22:43
    to they'll take us um we'll go back to
  • 00:22:46
    03. Let's go back a little further. Go
  • 00:22:47
    back to 79. See how far they'll get
  • 00:22:49
    because then I have to zoom in and
  • 00:22:50
    everything. We'll take this 90 area here
  • 00:22:52
    and you'll see this little blip right
  • 00:22:54
    down here on your screen. And they won't
  • 00:22:55
    let me blow that up, but you can see the
  • 00:22:57
    blip right here. You'll see the other
  • 00:22:58
    ones as we'll get involved. And really,
  • 00:23:00
    I mean, you can't miss what I'm getting
  • 00:23:01
    at. Hopefully, glaringly obvious. We'll
  • 00:23:04
    just drop a line right there. And we can
  • 00:23:05
    see that this is when people felt the
  • 00:23:07
    worst about the market. And we can see
  • 00:23:09
    this blip down here and then lift. And
  • 00:23:11
    what you're going to see is when you
  • 00:23:12
    mark these off that you're going to find
  • 00:23:14
    those areas that and it doesn't even
  • 00:23:16
    have to be, you know, every single low.
  • 00:23:19
    But when you start seeing these areas
  • 00:23:20
    like here and then you mark them off,
  • 00:23:22
    yeah, you could dip and then you could
  • 00:23:24
    go lower again like you did here. But
  • 00:23:27
    eventually one of those dips like here
  • 00:23:29
    is going to mark that bottom. And you're
  • 00:23:31
    going to see this time and time again
  • 00:23:33
    where these lows that one didn't work.
  • 00:23:35
    It would have been way better if it
  • 00:23:36
    worked. These lows are going to mark us
  • 00:23:38
    in levels. This usually is a leading
  • 00:23:41
    indicator, by the way. This usually
  • 00:23:43
    happens and then it will tell us like,
  • 00:23:45
    hey, a month from now or something. You
  • 00:23:47
    know, this will change, but the market's
  • 00:23:48
    already going to be reflected. And
  • 00:23:49
    hopefully you can see where I'm going
  • 00:23:51
    going with this. But what's important to
  • 00:23:53
    us about this, and I'll clean this off,
  • 00:23:55
    is that it's not once, it's all the
  • 00:23:57
    time. It's not again, it's not once.
  • 00:23:59
    It's what was the lowest reading during
  • 00:24:01
    the great financial crisis? Oh, it was
  • 00:24:03
    down here. Oh, okay. How did that go for
  • 00:24:05
    the market? Oh, it's the bottom of the
  • 00:24:06
    market. And then here comes Michigan
  • 00:24:08
    consumer sentiment hitting another low.
  • 00:24:10
    And at the same time it hits that low.
  • 00:24:12
    The market's actually higher hitting
  • 00:24:14
    another low. Well, what does that tell
  • 00:24:15
    you? Well, now I have a positive
  • 00:24:17
    divergence on the Michigan consumer
  • 00:24:19
    sentiment data because I'm not hitting a
  • 00:24:21
    new low even though this is where I'm
  • 00:24:22
    at. Super important concept there. But
  • 00:24:24
    what this is telling us is, oh, hey, by
  • 00:24:26
    the way, you're at that 55 level and
  • 00:24:28
    that's where the great financial crisis.
  • 00:24:30
    Hey, here's the here's the retest of
  • 00:24:31
    that. Oh, that was the bottom and that's
  • 00:24:33
    as far as we got down. So again, when we
  • 00:24:35
    start going through these levels, you
  • 00:24:37
    can see hopefully where I'm going with
  • 00:24:38
    this where here's 22 and 22 and this is
  • 00:24:41
    where I'm just going to mark it off now
  • 00:24:43
    so you can see it from our perspective.
  • 00:24:45
    This is where we are. If we mark it
  • 00:24:46
    here, okay, great. We dipped right here
  • 00:24:49
    in 22 and we hit and then we went down
  • 00:24:51
    again for a couple weeks and then we
  • 00:24:52
    bottomed and then we ripped everyone's
  • 00:24:54
    face off after hitting this level. And
  • 00:24:56
    then you look at this and just to kind
  • 00:24:57
    of put this in perspective because it's
  • 00:24:59
    quote soft data as we're supposed to
  • 00:25:01
    refer to it or sentiment data. And then
  • 00:25:03
    when we look at this stuff, what's it
  • 00:25:05
    telling you? Oh, by the way, the
  • 00:25:07
    sentiment was better in the market than
  • 00:25:09
    it is right now. Even though we had a
  • 00:25:12
    massive shutdown of everything global,
  • 00:25:14
    everything was better here than it is
  • 00:25:16
    right now. Like that just shows you the
  • 00:25:18
    psychology of what you're looking at
  • 00:25:20
    because there's no way that people could
  • 00:25:21
    feel more certain it like on any
  • 00:25:24
    objective basis. It's impossible that
  • 00:25:27
    people could say that they feel more
  • 00:25:28
    certain during a global pandemic than
  • 00:25:30
    they do right now. It just defies any
  • 00:25:32
    logic. You're welcome to comment on
  • 00:25:34
    that. Maybe I'm missing something, but
  • 00:25:36
    when the entire world is shut down and
  • 00:25:38
    we don't know what's going on versus we
  • 00:25:40
    don't know what the tariffs are going to
  • 00:25:41
    be, you can still go outside. You can
  • 00:25:43
    still walk around. I mean, when you
  • 00:25:45
    really think about it, like how crazy
  • 00:25:46
    that is. And it just goes to show you
  • 00:25:48
    psychology of the market and market
  • 00:25:49
    sentiment. Super important concept. You
  • 00:25:52
    you might want to listen to that part a
  • 00:25:54
    couple times. Really important. But but
  • 00:25:56
    watch how this plays out. Is the
  • 00:25:58
    Michigan 5-year inflation expectations.
  • 00:26:00
    How do people think of inflation
  • 00:26:02
    year-over-year going forward? This is
  • 00:26:04
    what's happening right in this area
  • 00:26:06
    since 2013. You could see this rise and
  • 00:26:08
    people are like, "No, inflation's not
  • 00:26:09
    going anywhere. We're fine. Inflation's
  • 00:26:11
    ripping their faces off." And they're
  • 00:26:12
    like, "Oh, we're fine." Inflation is
  • 00:26:14
    dropping throughout here. And what's
  • 00:26:16
    happening? No, things are good.
  • 00:26:18
    Inflation comes in negative on the month
  • 00:26:20
    overmonth data. So on the CPI, month
  • 00:26:22
    over month, four and a half up here. So
  • 00:26:24
    the idea that in the perception of where
  • 00:26:27
    you're at versus where you truly are at
  • 00:26:30
    are so skewed right now that somebody
  • 00:26:32
    might want to go back and listen to
  • 00:26:33
    those things to look at to to determine
  • 00:26:36
    where we might actually be and which one
  • 00:26:38
    of those stages we're in because
  • 00:26:40
    sentiment has shifted so far negative
  • 00:26:42
    that in my opinion it it's very
  • 00:26:44
    difficult to look at this on the
  • 00:26:45
    earnings you just had and say that we're
  • 00:26:47
    going into some kind of recession. I
  • 00:26:49
    understand the levels of uncertainty and
  • 00:26:51
    economic uncertainty, but where
  • 00:26:52
    sentiment is versus where we are is so
  • 00:26:55
    skewed, it's crazy. And and I can give
  • 00:26:57
    you an example of this on hard data as
  • 00:26:59
    well. If we look at the S&P and we look
  • 00:27:02
    at hard data, right here was the single
  • 00:27:04
    highest CPI we ever had in well over 5
  • 00:27:07
    years. It was right at this level. This
  • 00:27:09
    one in October was right near it. It was
  • 00:27:11
    like 9%. This was the bottom of the
  • 00:27:12
    market. Now, if I go back in time and I
  • 00:27:16
    show you the tweet that I put out that
  • 00:27:18
    no one's going to ring a bell, this is
  • 00:27:19
    what a bottom looks like. And what I did
  • 00:27:21
    was I showed this chart. I just put this
  • 00:27:23
    out on Twitter and you can see the lower
  • 00:27:25
    low and then you can see the right here
  • 00:27:27
    the higher lows. And I said, "No one's
  • 00:27:30
    going to ring a bell. We undercut it. We
  • 00:27:32
    couldn't hold it." And it looks to me
  • 00:27:33
    like we're putting in that bottom. the
  • 00:27:35
    amount of rhetoric and the amount of
  • 00:27:37
    psychology in people's minds that were
  • 00:27:39
    so used to just getting torn apart, I I
  • 00:27:41
    couldn't possibly be right. You couldn't
  • 00:27:43
    possibly bounce at this. So, no matter
  • 00:27:46
    where your head is or what you're
  • 00:27:47
    thinking or this time it's different,
  • 00:27:49
    right? I mean, remember, every time it's
  • 00:27:51
    definitely different. And that's how
  • 00:27:52
    people view these, they keep doing the
  • 00:27:54
    same cycle. We repeat pattern. So, when
  • 00:27:56
    you start to see this thing and
  • 00:27:57
    everyone's like, "Oh, no. We're
  • 00:27:58
    definitely this is going to roll over
  • 00:28:00
    and the tariffs are going to be, you
  • 00:28:01
    know, 4,000 and this is going to happen
  • 00:28:03
    and that's going to happen." You have no
  • 00:28:04
    idea what's going to happen because
  • 00:28:05
    here's where they told us we were going
  • 00:28:07
    to have 4% GDP. Here's where they told
  • 00:28:09
    us we were going to have negative 4 GDP.
  • 00:28:10
    Remember the Atlanta Fed? They kept
  • 00:28:12
    wheeling that sucker out. You don't hear
  • 00:28:13
    about that anymore, do you? So, when you
  • 00:28:15
    start to see this stuff, you have to
  • 00:28:16
    understand that it's the psychology on
  • 00:28:18
    where you think we are versus where we
  • 00:28:20
    really are. That's that's the game in a
  • 00:28:22
    nutshell. So, I've been getting requests
  • 00:28:24
    to show more trades. Uh, this was a
  • 00:28:26
    super simple one to show at super easy
  • 00:28:29
    trade actually, but there were some real
  • 00:28:32
    interesting develop and I'm going to
  • 00:28:33
    show it live in a second, but we saw the
  • 00:28:35
    volume coming in off the open on this
  • 00:28:37
    one and we were focused on a couple
  • 00:28:39
    other names. You might hear me mention
  • 00:28:40
    it in the editing of of this, but
  • 00:28:43
    essentially what we're doing is buying
  • 00:28:44
    in here on the break and then we got the
  • 00:28:47
    retest. We actually were buying in here
  • 00:28:49
    and then as soon as I broke I I cut
  • 00:28:51
    half, saw something that showed me how
  • 00:28:53
    to get in here. It was the amount of
  • 00:28:55
    volume that came in after this right
  • 00:28:58
    here. See how like see how much that is.
  • 00:29:01
    See how fast you bounced on that little
  • 00:29:03
    volume? Sometimes these low volume bars
  • 00:29:06
    will tell you more about the the price
  • 00:29:08
    action than the high volume bar. See
  • 00:29:10
    like how the high volume bar broke you
  • 00:29:11
    out and you came down. You'll see me
  • 00:29:13
    actually trim into those until you'll
  • 00:29:14
    see like the final, you know, the final
  • 00:29:15
    reason we got out. But I actually
  • 00:29:17
    trimmed. And this is something that
  • 00:29:19
    people are lost on and and I think it's
  • 00:29:21
    really like I think it's a really
  • 00:29:22
    important concept that people have to
  • 00:29:23
    remember. You can always get back in a
  • 00:29:25
    trade. Always. Pardon the slurping. It's
  • 00:29:27
    early at the time recording this. But um
  • 00:29:29
    you can always get in a trade. You can't
  • 00:29:31
    always get out at the same price. So
  • 00:29:32
    when it does something that it shouldn't
  • 00:29:34
    do, you just get out of the way. And
  • 00:29:36
    this did something it shouldn't have
  • 00:29:37
    done. That dogee, the undercut. So I
  • 00:29:39
    just moved on and then we just got back
  • 00:29:41
    in when we saw it hold exactly where it
  • 00:29:43
    should have. And that's super important
  • 00:29:45
    to get. But let let's watch this play
  • 00:29:46
    out live. But I do think that that's
  • 00:29:48
    going to absolutely rip here. You can
  • 00:29:50
    see a three handle here today. If you
  • 00:29:52
    look at how this is setting up your
  • 00:29:54
    wicks right here, but there's more to it
  • 00:29:56
    there as well. There's this close over
  • 00:29:58
    that area right here. I'll get to it
  • 00:30:01
    later, but this can go you you can go
  • 00:30:03
    here. You should be able to see the cup,
  • 00:30:05
    the wonky cup and the handle yourself.
  • 00:30:07
    You see the handle right here? See the
  • 00:30:08
    cup? You can get up here pretty quickly.
  • 00:30:11
    If you flip this level, pardon me,
  • 00:30:12
    allergies today are brutal for some
  • 00:30:14
    reason. Weird. But 301, you get through
  • 00:30:16
    that. There's nothing here. You can get
  • 00:30:18
    right up here like fast. So, just keep
  • 00:30:20
    that in mind and let it do its thing.
  • 00:30:23
    Nothing for me to do with this. I'm just
  • 00:30:24
    sitting with it and I already have it.
  • 00:30:26
    I'd be looking for pullbacks and ways to
  • 00:30:27
    flip that level. 301's pretty much a
  • 00:30:29
    lock. It's actually a little lower. You
  • 00:30:31
    probably already flipped it. You already
  • 00:30:32
    did. So, 301's probably like a layup,
  • 00:30:35
    guys, to get to here, which is like
  • 00:30:36
    three points if you want it. You have to
  • 00:30:38
    use this low. You could drop to a three
  • 00:30:40
    minute. See if you can find something
  • 00:30:41
    else like that 294 level to get there.
  • 00:30:44
    You know, I'd rather go off the five.
  • 00:30:46
    But you haven't had one bar yet. I don't
  • 00:30:47
    think you're you're gone, man. I'd like
  • 00:30:49
    a pullback, but I'd like a lot of
  • 00:30:50
    things. I don't think I'm going to get
  • 00:30:52
    it. You over to come on down. Find a way
  • 00:30:55
    in to buy more Tesla today. I think
  • 00:30:56
    that's going to be a fun one today. I
  • 00:30:58
    don't know that I have to do it right
  • 00:30:59
    now. So, I'm just going to wait and hold
  • 00:31:01
    what I have. That is your first
  • 00:31:03
    pullback. What's the low? They're going
  • 00:31:05
    to fight the 300. They're going to lose.
  • 00:31:08
    They're going to lose. But you're going
  • 00:31:09
    to lose. They're going to fight it. I
  • 00:31:11
    I'm I It's only going to cost me a
  • 00:31:13
    dollar. I'll know in like a minute or
  • 00:31:14
    two. They can't get through. But I got
  • 00:31:16
    to use that low. So, it might be a super
  • 00:31:18
    super quick trade here because if it
  • 00:31:20
    doesn't do what I want, then that means
  • 00:31:21
    they're going to apply a lot of
  • 00:31:22
    pressure. Yeah, I don't normally have
  • 00:31:23
    that 50% there, but do what they do
  • 00:31:25
    here. I'm just trying to scalp, but I
  • 00:31:27
    have more on. But like once that happens
  • 00:31:29
    and it pushes through what you're
  • 00:31:31
    looking for, you couldn't get over half
  • 00:31:33
    of it, it was kind of telling. You see
  • 00:31:35
    like the LPI here, the HPI here. So,
  • 00:31:37
    what's the low of that bar? So, right
  • 00:31:39
    there when it did that, I just printed
  • 00:31:40
    more of it because it held. And then I
  • 00:31:42
    just used the same stop at 41 just cuz
  • 00:31:44
    it was just sitting I'm like, well, it's
  • 00:31:46
    not going to cost me much. Like, what's
  • 00:31:47
    it really going to cost if it doesn't
  • 00:31:48
    break? Right? The little loss I took up
  • 00:31:50
    here, I bought that that position back.
  • 00:31:52
    Now, if it flips and goes, right?
  • 00:31:54
    Because now I could trim more of that.
  • 00:31:56
    Why would I do it now? Because now if it
  • 00:31:57
    holds, now I got something. Come on.
  • 00:32:00
    There it is. Boom. Trimmed. See, you
  • 00:32:02
    want to be in here for it. So, when it
  • 00:32:04
    does it, you're trimming. Trimmed. I'm
  • 00:32:06
    just trimming that day trade I did. I'll
  • 00:32:08
    talk about this in a class like why I
  • 00:32:10
    did that here. Why I bought back. I have
  • 00:32:12
    half of the day trade left. if you're
  • 00:32:13
    trying to figure it out. See, I'm not
  • 00:32:15
    telling like when I'm looking at the
  • 00:32:16
    stock, I'm not telling the stock what
  • 00:32:18
    it's going to do. I'm just allowing it
  • 00:32:19
    to act. Your first down bar, first bar
  • 00:32:21
    really under that cloud. Day trades over
  • 00:32:23
    100%. Now, I hope you found that
  • 00:32:26
    helpful. I find it I find the comments I
  • 00:32:28
    read a lot of the comments. Um, I don't
  • 00:32:31
    mind sharing those things. I don't want
  • 00:32:33
    to do it all the time, but I do think
  • 00:32:34
    it's helpful. If you want me to get into
  • 00:32:37
    like greater detail on that trade, I can
  • 00:32:39
    do an entire video on it. I don't mind
  • 00:32:42
    doing it. I do find them I do understand
  • 00:32:44
    why people want to see it and I do think
  • 00:32:46
    that it's helpful to an extent. Uh
  • 00:32:48
    especially when you're doing the live
  • 00:32:49
    and then you can see that and when I
  • 00:32:52
    show that trade that's from one account
  • 00:32:54
    there's an there's accounts where I just
  • 00:32:57
    I compartmentalize my trades. So I have
  • 00:32:58
    accounts where I will have my long-term
  • 00:33:00
    holds or um you know conservative
  • 00:33:03
    accounts and then aggressive accounts. I
  • 00:33:05
    find compartmentalization to be key for
  • 00:33:08
    me because what would happen with
  • 00:33:09
    someone like myself and everybody's
  • 00:33:11
    different. You have to do what works for
  • 00:33:13
    you. You'll hear me say that a lot is if
  • 00:33:15
    I had like my swing trade in the day
  • 00:33:17
    trade account, I'm going to think I'm
  • 00:33:18
    super smart. I'm going to get out the
  • 00:33:20
    top and then I'm going to buy it back.
  • 00:33:22
    No. No. It for me that would not work.
  • 00:33:26
    So there will be days, for example,
  • 00:33:29
    where I'll take MSTR and I'll whack it
  • 00:33:31
    around, but I've had a trade in MSTR
  • 00:33:34
    since like 3:10 or 317, I think, that if
  • 00:33:37
    I was in the same account and I'm
  • 00:33:39
    watching days like this when I'm day
  • 00:33:41
    trading it from 430 to 406 and, you
  • 00:33:44
    know, it becomes it becomes an issue.
  • 00:33:47
    So, I think that's super uh super
  • 00:33:49
    important for people to get. But anyway,
  • 00:33:51
    I do think there's some things here that
  • 00:33:52
    are definitely worth us going over. Uh,
  • 00:33:55
    I do want to go back to the Tesla and
  • 00:33:56
    there are some names here that I think
  • 00:33:58
    that I could add uh, real value to that
  • 00:34:00
    would help you this weekend going
  • 00:34:01
    forward. And I think there's some things
  • 00:34:02
    that we really have to cover that
  • 00:34:04
    happened on the earnings front that
  • 00:34:05
    could really add value as well. But if
  • 00:34:07
    we take a look at something like a
  • 00:34:09
    Tesla, for me, the break was everything.
  • 00:34:12
    So here's your flag. Here's your break.
  • 00:34:14
    And of course, you have the China talks
  • 00:34:16
    and everyone's going to be like, well,
  • 00:34:17
    we don't know what's going to happen.
  • 00:34:18
    No, we don't have a clue. We don't. We
  • 00:34:20
    can say that we do. you know, we all
  • 00:34:21
    have become experts on China. Um, again,
  • 00:34:25
    here's your death cross and everybody's
  • 00:34:27
    like, I got to sell because I got a
  • 00:34:29
    death cross. All right, so from that
  • 00:34:31
    death cross, if you bought the death
  • 00:34:32
    cross, you're up about 70 points right
  • 00:34:34
    now. And now it's telling you for the
  • 00:34:37
    first time, and I would pay attention to
  • 00:34:39
    it, that you are above the 200 day
  • 00:34:40
    moving average. And you are above the
  • 00:34:42
    200 day moving average on Tesla for the
  • 00:34:46
    first time since it broke here. You kind
  • 00:34:48
    of got got above it a little bit there,
  • 00:34:50
    but you're really above it now. And you
  • 00:34:52
    and you had some decent volume. It could
  • 00:34:53
    have been better. But that's a lot of
  • 00:34:55
    volume on Friday from a lot of people
  • 00:34:57
    that either don't want to be short it or
  • 00:34:59
    realizing like, hey, if you're having
  • 00:35:02
    talks, things are going to get better.
  • 00:35:04
    Now, maybe, you know, you you hear all
  • 00:35:06
    over Twitter, oh, this guy's going to
  • 00:35:08
    walk out, that guy's going to walk out.
  • 00:35:09
    Letic, in my opinion, at this point, he
  • 00:35:12
    needs to shut up. I don't know how else
  • 00:35:14
    to say it nicely, but like when you have
  • 00:35:16
    a point person, the other person
  • 00:35:17
    shouldn't be saying a whole heck of a
  • 00:35:19
    lot. But, you know, I guess we could do
  • 00:35:21
    a video on that. Uh, but they shouldn't
  • 00:35:24
    be contradicting one another. Um, it's
  • 00:35:27
    definitely counterproductive. And that
  • 00:35:28
    that kind of stuff can add to the
  • 00:35:29
    volatility. But if you look at the
  • 00:35:31
    forest through the trees, what I was
  • 00:35:32
    trying to explain to everybody was
  • 00:35:33
    that's your neckline. Everyone sees the
  • 00:35:35
    left head, right? Right. In that
  • 00:35:37
    development, the bigger the right
  • 00:35:39
    shoulder, the more pain. And that's why
  • 00:35:41
    this was so painful, right? The less
  • 00:35:43
    developed the right shoulder, the less
  • 00:35:45
    pain. But if you if you look at
  • 00:35:48
    something like this, like to get to 320
  • 00:35:49
    is not a big deal. Again, what I would
  • 00:35:52
    do is focus on the fact that you know
  • 00:35:54
    that you're in a non-trending market.
  • 00:35:57
    So, you have to watch the top of the
  • 00:35:59
    VWAP and go, "Oh, okay. Well, I could
  • 00:36:01
    see why that peak right there could be
  • 00:36:04
    an issue, and that stopped us at 307."
  • 00:36:07
    So, you're going to want to watch that,
  • 00:36:08
    of course. But there's other stuff here
  • 00:36:11
    that I think super important with Tesla
  • 00:36:14
    and I would be paying attention to. Make
  • 00:36:17
    sure that you do get the trading uh free
  • 00:36:19
    newsletter because there's going to be a
  • 00:36:21
    lot of like tips and stuff in there. Um
  • 00:36:24
    I would focus on the fact that from this
  • 00:36:27
    peak and this to me is more important
  • 00:36:29
    than the VWAP. VWAP secondary to volume
  • 00:36:32
    profile for me. Um I'm above point of
  • 00:36:34
    control. Point of control to me, like if
  • 00:36:37
    someone's in rank them, point of control
  • 00:36:39
    is greater to me than VWAP because VWAP
  • 00:36:43
    is telling me that all these people are
  • 00:36:45
    in from here. Point of control is
  • 00:36:46
    telling me this is the price point where
  • 00:36:48
    everybody owns the most. That's why
  • 00:36:50
    point of control is more important to
  • 00:36:52
    me. What's more important to you is
  • 00:36:54
    what's more important to you. To me,
  • 00:36:57
    looking at this and saying the majority
  • 00:36:58
    of people own here versus this is the
  • 00:37:01
    average price all these people own.
  • 00:37:03
    They're both important. Don't get me
  • 00:37:05
    wrong, and I watch both, but if someone
  • 00:37:07
    said, "Hey, what's most important?"
  • 00:37:09
    Also, closing above like a B like this
  • 00:37:11
    value high area, you kind of might want
  • 00:37:13
    to pay attention to it. I know people
  • 00:37:14
    don't like when they have like no volume
  • 00:37:16
    in here, like it's no man's land to
  • 00:37:18
    them. I like no volume. I'm an optimist.
  • 00:37:20
    So, I will look at that and think, oh, I
  • 00:37:23
    can get up to that 325, 330 level,
  • 00:37:25
    that's the top of this bar, and go from
  • 00:37:27
    there. But, you still have some issues
  • 00:37:29
    here. I do like what you're seeing here.
  • 00:37:32
    I would not really sleep on this. Um, I
  • 00:37:35
    personally think one of the things that
  • 00:37:37
    you're going to hear about with this
  • 00:37:38
    open market and China is that because
  • 00:37:42
    that's where Trump was going with it.
  • 00:37:44
    What he's saying about the open market,
  • 00:37:46
    I'll give you my opinion with Nvidia. If
  • 00:37:48
    you want access to everything that we
  • 00:37:50
    have access to, then you have to allow
  • 00:37:52
    your people to have access to everything
  • 00:37:53
    that they want access to. And you can't
  • 00:37:56
    have these subsidized car deals on your
  • 00:37:58
    own on your own cars in your own country
  • 00:38:01
    uh versus everybody's cars. And if
  • 00:38:03
    you're going to do that, then we're
  • 00:38:04
    going to do it here. I I think that
  • 00:38:06
    that's where that's going. And I think
  • 00:38:07
    it could help places like Tesla or help
  • 00:38:10
    Nvidia if they have an open market. If
  • 00:38:13
    you start breaking down some of these
  • 00:38:15
    barriers, I think that that's where this
  • 00:38:18
    could go. And I think that you could see
  • 00:38:20
    this move. In my opinion, from what
  • 00:38:22
    we're seeing, China needs this to happen
  • 00:38:24
    more than the US does. I don't know that
  • 00:38:27
    you're going to see more deals. I don't
  • 00:38:29
    know how that's going to go. But when we
  • 00:38:32
    look at something like Nvidia in here,
  • 00:38:34
    we have some really core issues to focus
  • 00:38:36
    on. And I could do the simple things
  • 00:38:38
    like drop in the moving averages and we
  • 00:38:41
    could talk about them and go oo. But I
  • 00:38:44
    really like that you are back above the
  • 00:38:47
    50 here, the 55. I use a 12 to 2255. I
  • 00:38:50
    love this cross here where I have a 1222
  • 00:38:53
    cross. I have a whole trade that I do
  • 00:38:55
    just when this happens alone. Uh, we do
  • 00:38:57
    have to drop the 200 in. We do have to
  • 00:39:00
    recognize that you do have a death cross
  • 00:39:01
    here. And we do have to recognize that
  • 00:39:03
    that does make that 125 level pretty
  • 00:39:06
    hard to break on Nvidia up here. I do
  • 00:39:09
    think that the time that we utilize
  • 00:39:11
    everything here that we should spend on
  • 00:39:13
    some of these earnings because a lot of
  • 00:39:15
    people looked at these earnings and just
  • 00:39:16
    felt like, oh, there's not really, you
  • 00:39:19
    know, there's not really a lot here or a
  • 00:39:20
    lot to focus on. I would take the other
  • 00:39:23
    side of that with some of these names
  • 00:39:25
    like you know KAC is is the one that
  • 00:39:28
    came out that had earnings. When you
  • 00:39:29
    when these guys start coming out like
  • 00:39:31
    this these semiconductor capital
  • 00:39:32
    equipment manufacturers I want to pay
  • 00:39:34
    attention to them. Um this is super
  • 00:39:36
    important. I would watch AAT because AAT
  • 00:39:39
    is I think Wednesday or Thursday this
  • 00:39:41
    week. You want to watch this and you
  • 00:39:43
    definitely want to watch this because of
  • 00:39:44
    this Taiwan semi. This is Taiwan Semi
  • 00:39:48
    when they came out with earnings.
  • 00:39:49
    Couldn't get anywhere. Here's your death
  • 00:39:51
    cross. Here's your 200 day moving
  • 00:39:52
    average. You want you want to watch AAT.
  • 00:39:55
    And I I'll tell you why. Because I think
  • 00:39:56
    they're ramping up production. I don't
  • 00:39:59
    think they're cutting back production.
  • 00:40:00
    And that ties us back in again to the
  • 00:40:02
    ASMLs of the world and people going,
  • 00:40:05
    "Well, I don't know what to do with
  • 00:40:06
    this." And you could see your break
  • 00:40:07
    right here and how you're acting. From
  • 00:40:10
    that break, you've done nothing but
  • 00:40:11
    rally. What I thought was super
  • 00:40:13
    interesting about this week is a lot of
  • 00:40:15
    the color that we got. And what I mean
  • 00:40:18
    by that is DD Dog. Take a look at this.
  • 00:40:21
    You beat. And then you go TTD and we
  • 00:40:24
    take a look at how that's going and you
  • 00:40:27
    beat. If you go through these names like
  • 00:40:30
    Net and
  • 00:40:31
    Cloudfare, this to me was okay. It
  • 00:40:34
    wasn't great, but it was okay. And you
  • 00:40:36
    rallied on okay. So then I start looking
  • 00:40:39
    at things like the cloud and you start
  • 00:40:41
    seeing that you're doing the same thing.
  • 00:40:43
    Here's your death cross. But what are
  • 00:40:44
    you fighting that 200 day moving
  • 00:40:46
    average? I do think we're getting a
  • 00:40:49
    leader. I think our leader is IGV, which
  • 00:40:53
    is expanded or expanded so tech
  • 00:40:56
    software. Now, we're going to need more
  • 00:40:57
    coffee today. Um, but what I want to
  • 00:41:00
    focus on is there's my death cross. Say
  • 00:41:02
    it with
  • 00:41:03
    me. But what happened? You flipped it.
  • 00:41:06
    We need a leading sector. IGV used to
  • 00:41:10
    lead the socks. And I know a lot of
  • 00:41:12
    people don't get this, but back in the
  • 00:41:14
    day, we knew this. So, if I go IGV here
  • 00:41:18
    and then I tie this into the socks,
  • 00:41:21
    you'll see this pretty clearly right
  • 00:41:23
    here. And we'll just flip to it for a
  • 00:41:26
    second. Now, let's do it on the weekly
  • 00:41:29
    and go from there. And you'll see from
  • 00:41:31
    like that 2000 on that this was just an
  • 00:41:34
    absolute battle with these things
  • 00:41:36
    flipping over and over again. But once
  • 00:41:39
    you got through this level back here,
  • 00:41:41
    and then we'll slide this over. Once you
  • 00:41:43
    got through the great financial crisis,
  • 00:41:47
    everything was restored. And then what
  • 00:41:50
    happens was we go through this period.
  • 00:41:53
    And once we go through it, you can see
  • 00:41:55
    how that played out. Now, watch this.
  • 00:41:58
    But wait, there's more. Watch what's
  • 00:42:00
    going on in the hourly here and how this
  • 00:42:03
    is starting to set up from the 25 on.
  • 00:42:07
    Well, what's happening here? You're
  • 00:42:08
    getting a leading sector. The leading
  • 00:42:10
    sector is IGV. IGV is leading the socks
  • 00:42:15
    and when you go back throughout history
  • 00:42:18
    it's really important to get let's go
  • 00:42:20
    back to this that that's always been the
  • 00:42:23
    case. It's it just has been because IGV
  • 00:42:27
    you know this is the the the entire
  • 00:42:29
    sector versus just one component of it.
  • 00:42:31
    But you had this period in time where
  • 00:42:34
    you didn't have that and you can see
  • 00:42:37
    this that like if we go back we'll do it
  • 00:42:38
    on a 4 hour real quick. uh where you had
  • 00:42:41
    these periods where just you had this
  • 00:42:43
    outperformance and then that
  • 00:42:44
    outperformance of the socks is flipping.
  • 00:42:47
    super important concept to get guys
  • 00:42:48
    because when you see stuff like this
  • 00:42:50
    like here's from the pandem from the
  • 00:42:52
    pandemic pandemic I don't know where I'm
  • 00:42:55
    from um but here's from the pandemic
  • 00:42:58
    then if you go back so everything like
  • 00:43:02
    let's look at it this way like nature's
  • 00:43:03
    healing right so this is really what you
  • 00:43:05
    want to focus on I do have a leading
  • 00:43:07
    sector and then you would kind of go
  • 00:43:09
    through those and go well what names are
  • 00:43:11
    in there I'm glad you asked I think that
  • 00:43:13
    you have to focus on stuff like Oracle
  • 00:43:15
    let's clean all this stuff off for a
  • 00:43:17
    moment. Um, but I think you have to
  • 00:43:19
    focus on things like Oracle now. I think
  • 00:43:22
    you have to pay attention to this and
  • 00:43:23
    what you might want to do is watch these
  • 00:43:25
    moving averages on things like Oracle.
  • 00:43:27
    But software names overall were great.
  • 00:43:30
    And I always look at like the big short
  • 00:43:32
    names. A you broke out on this. Yeah,
  • 00:43:36
    that they're they're leaning on that
  • 00:43:38
    sucker a little bit. I'm a little
  • 00:43:40
    surprised by that. But yeah, they're
  • 00:43:41
    leaning on that guy a little bit. um
  • 00:43:43
    they're selling it down and they're able
  • 00:43:45
    to to do that. I was watching CVNA as
  • 00:43:48
    well go, man, they're going to rally
  • 00:43:49
    that one and they're leaning on it. So,
  • 00:43:52
    what this is telling me is that I am at
  • 00:43:54
    this crossroads and I really want to I I
  • 00:43:56
    there's so much in this video and I I
  • 00:43:59
    spent a lot of time editing this one and
  • 00:44:00
    I don't know if that was right or wrong,
  • 00:44:02
    but trying to cut down the time and and
  • 00:44:05
    the one thing I want to take from all
  • 00:44:06
    this is I do think the IGV space is
  • 00:44:09
    something. But when I see the most
  • 00:44:11
    shorted names getting to the highs like
  • 00:44:13
    this and then they're rolling over, it
  • 00:44:16
    does mean that you you want to pay
  • 00:44:18
    attention. You you really want to pay
  • 00:44:20
    attention and you really want to have
  • 00:44:21
    your levels marked accurately. That is
  • 00:44:24
    it.
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