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Today's Saturday, June 28th, 2025. And
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this week, markets have channeled
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optimism from easing geopolitical risks,
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dovish Fed signals, and strong tech
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performance. But that mood depends
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heavily on upcoming trade and policy
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events. Volatility may strike if any of
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these catalysts turn unexpectedly. The
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S&P 500 hit a new all-time high Friday.
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The S&P 500's up more than 20% since
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that big drop on April 8th and now up
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nearly 5% for the year. So,
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congratulations to those of you that did
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exactly what I've been saying on this
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channel all year and you just stayed the
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course or even better, you bought the
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dip. There wasn't a lot of craziness
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that happened this last week, but the
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biggest news in my mind from the last
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week is number one that there's that
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ceasefire or seemingly ceasefire
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happening with Iran and Israel. And then
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number two, this news from Trump that
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him and China actually signed a deal.
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President Trump and China formally
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signed a trade deal this week focusing
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on rare earth materials aimed at easing
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a key point of contention in their
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ongoing trade war. Here's a couple key
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details of that deal and then I'm going
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to give you three very big stocks to
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watch out for in July, especially if
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these trade deals keep coming in. Trump
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confirmed a trade deal was just signed
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on Wednesday during a White House event
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emphasizing that it starts to open up
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with China. The agreement facilitates
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expedited Chinese exports of rare earths
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and magnets to the US critical for tech
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defense and automotive supply chains. In
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return, the US reportedly agreed to ease
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student visa restrictions for Chinese
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nationals. Reports suggest reciprocal
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tariffs may now structure around a
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baseline of around 55% on Chinese goods
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and 10% on US exports, though specifics
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aren't fully disclosed. This deal
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formalizes the earlier 90-day tariff
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pause that began in May in Geneva,
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establishing a framework to remove some
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restrictions and move toward broader
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trade negotiations. Practical
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implementation may lag as China
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continues to vet export licenses. Some
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companies are reporting delays and
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hurdles. Trump also hinted at a very big
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upcoming deal with India, indicating a
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broader pivot to secure further trade
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packs. So, what's the overall sentiment
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right now in the market? Overall
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trending upward and positive, ending the
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week stronger. The fear and greed index
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is showing a 65 out of 100, meaning
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greed or that more investors are bullish
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and buying. But just know that obviously
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risk still remains high. geopolitical
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flash points, trade war dynamics, and
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potential Fed interference could trigger
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a bunch of volatility. So now, here are
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the top three stocks that I'm watching
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for July based on strong catalyst and
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analyst interest. Obviously, number one
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has to do with AI and specifically
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semiconductors, but it's not the only
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semiconductor one on this list.
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Semiconductors are going to be huge,
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especially if those tariffs or trade
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negotiations become something that's
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actually much more favorable. This is
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going to skyrocket and obviously number
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one has to be Nvidia. Nvidia remains at
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the forefront of AI innovation. Recent
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partnerships with Core Weeave, IBM, HP
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and European AI model rollouts are
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fueling continued momentum. Key July
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updates include earnings guidance, data
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center sales trends, and any commentary
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on export restrictions or AI hardware
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rollouts. The upcoming catalyst is that
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Nvidia just hit record highs and
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earnings or geopolitical tensions could
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amplify volatility. Number two on this
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list is Tesla. Benchmark recently raised
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its price target to $475,
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citing Tesla's strategic pivot into AI
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powered automation and robo taxis
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despite vehicle delivery concerns. What
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you're going to want to monitor is the
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Q2 delivery figures, updates on full
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self-driving and robo taxi deployments
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along with any full self-driving related
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safety or regulatory noise. A strong
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robo taxi update could trigger a
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breakout, but weak deliveries or
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negative Elon Musk headlines may weigh
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negatively. Number three is actually my
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most interesting one on this list, and
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it's one that a lot of you really,
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really like. And I actually personally
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like it better in the semiconductor or
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AI space than Nvidia. just because I
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think Nvidia is kind of as high as it
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can go. It's going to keep growing, you
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know, moderately. But what has a bigger
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upside would be this one. And this is
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Broadcom. When I look on investing.com
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and use my favorite little feature,
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which is this Pro Research tab right
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next to the stock name, there's a wealth
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of information. Broadcom continues to be
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a mutual fund favorite, reporting 44%
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profit and 20% sales growth last quarter
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and remains positioned as a key AI chip
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player. Right here, you can see that in
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literally every indicator, this is a
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strong buy. As a mid-tier tech name
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closely tied to AI infrastructure, it
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may offer steadier upside than higher
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beta mega caps. And this is not a
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big sale of 50% off for the summer. So
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now I'm going to go over exactly what to
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watch out for for next week because next
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week and really the week after that
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there could be some huge market movers.
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On Monday, June 30th, we have the core
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trend inflation indicator and Dallas Fed
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manufacturing survey which could give us
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early clues on price pressures and
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region specific growth. On Tuesday, July
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11th, likely release of durable goods
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orders, ISM manufacturing, ADP
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employment providing insight into
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business investment and labor momentum.
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On Thursday, July 3rd, we have the
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initial jobless claims and the June
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employment report, which is critical for
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wage and inflation expectations.
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And then obviously Friday, July 4th,
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markets are going to be closed for
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Independence Day. What to watch out for
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for the Fed policy. The rate cut debate
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has been intensifying and it will
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continue to do so. Policymakers remain
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divided on a potential July rate cut.
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Chair Powell is adopting a data first
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approach while governors Bowman and
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Waller have expressed support for cuts
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next week if inflation is still tame.
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Upcoming labor and inflation data will
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be pivotal in tipping the scales. Just
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recently, we saw that inflation actually
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did come in a bit higher than the month
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prior. And so, this is giving a case for
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possibly having a July rate cut. We'll
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see what happens there. As far as the
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tariff and fiscal policy risk, the
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tariff pause expires on July 9th. Any
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renewal or reimposition could trigger
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renewed volatility. That one is by far
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the thing that I'm watching the closest.
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any news that has to do with the tariffs
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or with possibly pushing back that pause
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and having another pause or any good
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news where just like we saw with China
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signing a deal and possibly India coming
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up. Anything more that comes with that
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that's just going to make the market
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either go up or go down. So be careful
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there. The Senate vote on Trump's tax
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and spending bill due around July 4th.
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So market watchers are alert to debt
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ceiling or deficit implications there.
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The next Fed meeting would be July 29th
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and 30th, and that's where the rate cut
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expectations will be key levers. Keep
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your eye on the market over this next
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week. After a week where the market just
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hit all-time highs, we may see some
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slight drops. Some people might be
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taking their profits from that high
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knowing that it can't just sustain and
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keep going up like that. And then also,
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people are on the fence worried about
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what's going to happen by July 9th when
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that tariff pause is supposed to be up.
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Watch either of these two videos to keep
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you going strong in your investing
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journey. And remember to keep investing
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simplified.
