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Hi YouTube. Good morning from uh Toronto
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on a very muggy day. As you know, last
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night Trump ordered the bombing of three
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Iranian
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um nuclear facilities and this will mark
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the beginning of World War II. So I have
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both good news and bad news. Uh the bad
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news is we are now approaching the end
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of the world. The good news is this
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morning I will tell you how the world
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will end. So um I'm going to look ahead
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and ask the most pivotal question of
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this coming war which is will the United
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States use ground troops? And as we
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discussed many times before in previous
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videos
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if the United States were to use ground
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troops then they would lose this war. it
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would mark the end of the American
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Empire and it would probably ignite the
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Second American Civil War. Um, and I
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think most people would be in agreement
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that using ground troops would be a
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disaster for the United States and the
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United States should avoid uh using
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ground forces uh to the best of its
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ability.
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That said, I'm going to use game theory
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to explain to you why they will still
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use ground troops against Iran even
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though um it's a really really bad idea.
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In fact, it it is a it would be a
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catastrophe. Okay, so let's do some game
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theory analysis. In game theory, we look
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at the in we look at the different
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players here be Iran, Israel, the United
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States and we ask three questions. The
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first question is how do they themselves
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perceive the game? What game are they
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playing? How do they see themselves? Um
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how do they see their roles in this
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game? That's the first big question.
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Second big question is what are their
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interests? What are their motivations?
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What are they trying to accomplish? What
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are their goals? The third big question
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then is given their role and given um
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their interest, what is their optimal
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strategy in trying to achieve their
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goals. Okay. So given these three
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questions, we're going to look at um how
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Iran, Israel, United States will play
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this game um in this war. Okay. So
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Iran's probably easiest to do so Iran.
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Iran perceives this war um as the
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opportunity to achieve really important
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national strategic goals. The first is
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to create national unity and to further
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legitimize the authority of the regime.
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Um as you know because of of sanctions
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and because of mismanagement because of
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corruption this regime in Iran is not
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very popular. But if the Americans are
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coming to invade and overthrow the
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regime and sow chaos and destruction,
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then the people are going to solidly
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unite behind the government, no matter
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what government it is. Um, also, uh, the
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Iranians see this as the best
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opportunity in a long time to finally
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destroy the American presence in the
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Middle East by forcing the Americans
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into a quagmire that that they cannot
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extricate themselves from. As we
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discussed many times, supply issues in
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Iran will be a huge problem for the
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American military. they they can get in,
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but it's be very hard for them to get
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out. Um, and the third strategic
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national interest is to um create global
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legit legitimacy by defeating the
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Americans, right? uh the Shia regime is
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trying to be the leaders of the global
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Muslim movement and if they were to
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defeat the Americans in Iran then they
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would be become the de facto leaders of
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all Muslims in the world surpassing
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Saudi Arabia. So those are the three
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major national strategic interests of
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Iran. And now the question then is how
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would Iran force Americans to invade?
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What is the optimal strategy in this
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regard? Because remember the the
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Iranians um they're not going to be able
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to beat the Americans in a conventional
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war. They don't have the technology.
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They don't have the weapons. They don't
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have the financing that the Americans
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do. So, they're going to have to trap
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the Americans in um uh Iran, encircle
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them, and cut off their supply lines and
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force a negotiated surrender. Okay,
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that's that's the optimal strategy of
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the Iranians. So why would the Americans
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be lured into attacking Iran on Iran's
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terms? Well, um there's a concept in
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geopolitics, in political science,
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called the escalation ladder. Um the
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idea of the escalation ladder is that
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before uh a full-blown war can start,
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there has to be a certain process of
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escalation.
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And in this theory, the Americans have
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something called escalation dominance,
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which means that um the Americans can
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always choose use nuclear weapons uh if
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they choose if they feel they are losing
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this war. They are the hegeimon. They
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are the global hegeimon and the Iranians
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are the underdog. So in theory, what
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they teach you in polic science is that
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the hegeimon has advantage of escalation
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dominance. What I want to show you today
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is actually um this theory doesn't
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really work because exclusion dominance
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what it does is it forces you into
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reactions that may be that may be
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against your best interest. So let me
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use a metaphor. Let's just say there's a
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bully in a high school and he's been
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bullying people for a year now and he's
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the biggest guy in the school. He's
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really mean and everyone's afraid of
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him. He has a reputation for being a
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thug and that's why he's able to
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accomplish what he wants to accomplish.
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Now, let's just say that you you're, you
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know, half his size. You want to start a
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fight with him. Well, um you would think
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that that would be against your
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advantage. But one advantage that you
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have um in this fight is you can control
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the terms of engagement. you can uh
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calibrate your actions to in order to
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elicit responses that are to the
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detriment of the bully. Okay. So, what I
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mean by that is if
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um the bully punches you, well, you have
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options. You can choose to go to the
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principal, you can choose to not do
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anything or you can choose to fight
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back. Okay? You have some options. But
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if you were to punch the bully, the
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bully would have actually no choice but
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to punch you back. If he relents, if he
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compromises, then he loses all
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credibility in the school. So, he has
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absolutely no choice in the matter but
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to punch you back and punch you back
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harder than you uh punched him. Um, and
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what this means is there are ways for
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you to calibrate your attack so that the
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bully is trapped. Okay? So, for example,
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you might say some bad things about him
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behind um uh his back, then he responds.
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And anyway, the point of the matter is
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even though the bully has the is
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supposed to be the uh stronger player,
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um he's forced by his reputation to
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respond in a certain way that you can
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control and calibrate. Same situation
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here um with Iran versus United States.
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The United States is a global hedgeimon.
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If if Iran were to close off the street
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of Humus, if it were to attack Saudi
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Arabia, if it were to attack American
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bases in uh the Middle East, then the
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Americans must respond in a way that
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that demonstrates escalation dominance.
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Okay? And so by slowly and methodically
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and steadily provoking the Americans in
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a way that um seems fair and reasonable,
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then Iran can slowly force the Americans
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into evading uh Iran. Okay? It's a it's
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going be a gradual process, but the
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Iranians can do this. Remember, it's the
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Americans who first launched the first
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strike against the Iranians. And so the
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Iranians can now calibrate response in
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order to slowly trap the Americans in
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the Middle East. Okay. So um from
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Iranian perspective, the optimal
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strategy is to force Americans to uh use
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ground troops to invade Iran. Uh, and
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they can accomplish that by carefully
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calibrating responses in a way that
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forces the Americans to respond more
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harshly until finally the only the only
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option really is to use ground troops.
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Okay, that's the Iranian case study.
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Now, let's look at the Israelis. Okay,
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the Israelis and the Americans seem to
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be allies in this war. But the reality
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is the Americans and the Israelis have
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divergent interests. America is the
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global hegeimon. Therefore, it wants to
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be able to balance uh forces in the
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Middle East. Um yes, it supports Israel
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right now, but if Israel were to become
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too powerful over time, then the
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Americans would start to back Saudi
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Arabia, Turkey,
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um Egypt. Okay? The Americans must
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maintain bounds of power in the Middle
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East. The Israelis on the other hand
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want to be the dominant hegeimon in the
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Middle East. There's something called
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the greater Israel project um that uh
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among certain circles in Israel is an
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extremely influential
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um idea. Okay. And the idea is very
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simple. They believe that in the Bible,
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Yahweh, their God, um gave the promised
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land to uh Abraham. That's a covenant.
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The promised land though is is extends
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from the Nile to the Euphrates. That
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entire basically the entire Middle East
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is supposed is supposed to be what um
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Yahweh promised Abraham. And there's a
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fanatical faction within the Israeli
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government that seeks to accomplish the
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uh promised land. And of course um if
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that were the case then the main
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adversaries to this project would not be
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the Iranians or the Saudis. It would
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actually be the Americans. Okay? Because
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um to accomplish the uh Israel the
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greater Israel project then then Israel
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needs to remove America from the Middle
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East. So, how can Israel do this? Well,
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let's just say um just hypothetically
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speaking, um the Americans were to
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invade Iran with ground troops and
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they're stuck there for years and years
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and they get nowhere. Um now the
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American Empire collapses. The American
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people revolt against the uh invasion of
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Iran. They refuse to serve. Um they burn
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uh their draft cards as they did in
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Vietnam. There's civil chaos. There's
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there's there's an emerging civil war in
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uh America. And now the the American
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military is forced to retreat from the
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Middle East. What would happen in that
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situation? Well, the moment that the
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American Empire dies,
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the empire of Israel is born. Why?
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Because controlling the Middle East, the
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American military controlling the Middle
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East is called Sencom, Central Command.
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They have bases, they have weapons, they
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have soldiers. If the American nation
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were to retreat from the Middle East, it
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does not mean the American military goes
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away. All it means is the American
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military will now become absorbed
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into the nation state of Israel, making
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Israel the de facto um hegeimon of the
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Middle East. Okay, that's the long-term
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play of Israel. It does Israel
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absolutely no good to defeat Iran. They
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need to both defeat Iran and America.
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The best way to do that is to entangle
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both into war that will destroy the
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militaries of of both nations. Okay,
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that's the optimal strategy for Israel.
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And that requires the Israelis to
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persuade the Americans to use ground
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troops to invade Iraq. Okay, that's the
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Israel
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um case study. Now, let's look at
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America. Obviously, America does not
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want to use ground troops uh because the
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moment that Americans start dying in the
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Middle East, uh the moment that they
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institute a draft, it will create chaos
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in America. People are going to protest,
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people are going to revolt. Um,
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politically speaking, it will be a
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quagmire. What the American Empire wants
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to do is um use
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bombing, propaganda, and financing. And
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this something we discussed um last
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video to overthrow the Iranian regime,
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the Aatollah and his mas, and install a
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more friendly regime that they can
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control. And in that way they can
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control all the resources, the oil of
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the Middle East and they can control
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global trade as well. And they have to
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do this as a response to Putin's
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invasion of Ukraine which really put the
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American Empire on the uh back foot.
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Okay. So that's the optimal strategy of
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the American Empire. Okay. to overthrow
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the regime with as little casualties
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um as possible uh hopefully through
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bombing, decapitation strikes, killing
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the Alatola um special forces strategies
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basically. Okay. But the person leading
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the American empire right now is Donald
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Trump. And if we look at what he wants,
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it's actually not it's actually
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different from the what the American
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Empire wants. Let's ask ourselves a
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question. What game is Donald Trump
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playing? Does he really care about Iran?
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Does he really care about the Middle
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East? Does he really care about Israel
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and Zionism and the Greater Israel
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Project? My guess is he does not care.
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What he cares about is maintaining his
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political authority and power within the
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United States. He also cares about
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destroying the global elite that in his
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mind robbed him of power in 2022.
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Remember for Trump the 2020 2020 sorry
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the 2020 elections were stolen from him.
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It's something that that um he's been
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adamant about for the past four years.
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In fact, he stews over it. So he wants
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to get back at the global elite who
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stole uh the American election from him
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and also wants to make sure he stays in
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power. That means destroying the global
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elite and the American empire. Okay, so
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it's really a struggle between America
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first represented by Donald Trump and
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American Empire. Now, you would think
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that this war uh between the American
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first people and the American Empire
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would mean that Donald Trump would not
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use ground troops into in Iran. But what
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better way to destroy the American
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Empire than to give it what what all
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that it wants? Okay. What better way
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destroy the American empire by making it
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arrogant
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um and by giving it all it wants and by
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um putting in a situation that it cannot
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possibly win. Right? So the idea is
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this. The idea is at first Donald Trump
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will seem to want regime change in Iran.
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Um, and he may even commit ground
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troops, but as um the American people
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start protesting, as there's violence
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and civil strike within America, as
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American soldiers are start to die in
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Iran, as the glo economy collapses, then
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Donald Trump's going to want to change
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his mind, right?
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But the American Empire is fully
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committed to winning this war. It wants
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it's allin. Um it refuses to surrender.
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And now a conflict emerges between the
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American Empire and America first. And
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Donald Trump can now um aggravate this
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tension by standing with America first
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over the American empire. And this would
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lead to a civil war. And you think you
00:17:11
would think this is a bad thing, but the
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civil war and an unwinable war in the
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Middle East uh are going to greatly
00:17:18
enhance the power and authority of
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Donald Trump. So much so that he would
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probably able be able to capture a third
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term. Okay. So, um it's really
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interesting in that, um
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all three major players, Donald Trump,
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Israel, and Iran want America to use
00:17:45
ground troops in Iran for their own
00:17:49
selfish uh individual individualistic
00:17:52
uh purposes. And that's why I think
00:17:55
ground troops will eventually be used in
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Iran.
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Um, and I think what will happen is that
00:18:06
basically all three players, Iran,
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Israel, um, and and Donald Trump will
00:18:12
get exactly what they want. Um, Israel
00:18:15
will be able to remove America from the
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Middle East and become the empire of
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Israel.
00:18:22
Iran will unite the Muslim world behind
00:18:24
its leadership. And Donald Trump will
00:18:26
probably get his third term. Okay,
00:18:28
that's what I see um the um um upshot of
00:18:34
this war being. Now, this raises a lot
00:18:37
of questions though, right? I mean, if
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Israel becomes greater Israel and it
00:18:44
becomes the empire of Israel and
00:18:45
dominates the Middle East, controlling
00:18:48
oil and trade, then wouldn't the world
00:18:51
unite against Israel? And unfortunately,
00:18:56
that's part of the plan. That's part of
00:18:58
the prophecy. Okay. And this is
00:19:00
something that we will discuss in the in
00:19:02
the uh next video because using game
00:19:05
theory itself is not you you it's not
00:19:07
enough to fully explain understand
00:19:10
what's going on in the Middle East. To
00:19:12
fully understand what's going on in my
00:19:14
next in my next video, I'm going to
00:19:15
explain to you the religious
00:19:19
um ideals, the religious um obsessions
00:19:23
driving this war in the Middle East. I'm
00:19:26
going explain to you the idea of
00:19:27
esquetology which means the
00:19:30
understanding
00:19:31
um of how the world ends. Basically all
00:19:35
the major players in the game Iran,
00:19:38
Israel, even to a certain extent the
00:19:40
United States, the Christian Zionist in
00:19:41
the United States see this war in Iran
00:19:45
as the fulfillment of biblical prophecy.
00:19:48
It really they really see this as the
00:19:50
end of the world. And that's why this
00:19:52
war is so scary for all of us. And um so
00:19:56
in my next video I will reveal to you
00:19:59
the religious dimensions of this war.
00:20:03
Okay.
00:20:05
Um some other points before I conclude
00:20:08
this video.
00:20:10
Some of you have reached out um in my
00:20:12
last video and said that I should not u
00:20:16
reveal my public um information. I
00:20:19
shouldn't put my family in front of the
00:20:21
camera. And you're absolutely right. Um,
00:20:24
upon reflection, I want to thank
00:20:25
everyone who voiced their concerns. Um,
00:20:30
honestly, this is all new to me. I was a
00:20:32
high school teacher teaching my students
00:20:35
and now I'm internet famous and
00:20:38
everyone's looking to me for some
00:20:40
guidance um, as to this US Iran war. And
00:20:43
I'm flattered um, but I'm also
00:20:46
overwhelmed by the attention. I'm an ed
00:20:48
I'm an educator. I want to continue to
00:20:50
educate people on how this war is going
00:20:52
to unfold so that you will be better
00:20:54
prepared. Um I I see that as my my
00:20:57
mission. And so I'm going to continue
00:20:59
making videos. I'm going to continue as
00:21:01
this war progresses um explaining to you
00:21:04
using game theory how this war how the
00:21:07
hell how this war might unfold. Um but
00:21:11
um I now understand that the internet
00:21:14
can be a scary, crazy,
00:21:17
insane place. So, I'm have to be much
00:21:20
more careful about my public profile and
00:21:23
I'm I have to be a lot more careful
00:21:26
about protecting my family. Okay. So,
00:21:28
I'm going to keep on making videos. Um,
00:21:30
but I apologize if you reach out and I
00:21:33
don't really answer you. Uh, I'm being
00:21:35
I'm I'm being overwhelmed right now. I
00:21:37
apologize if you reach out and you want
00:21:39
to have coffee and I can't do it. Um,
00:21:42
again, my focus right now is on studying
00:21:45
this war, trying to figure out what's
00:21:47
going on, and in my and to the best of
00:21:50
my ability, try to explain and clarify
00:21:52
what's going on. Okay, so I will see
00:21:56
everyone next time. Goodbye.
