Credit Spread Trading SECRETS: How to Enter & Exit like a Pro

00:23:40
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=532gdh68MMM

概要

TLDRNeste vídeo, o autor explica como negociar "credit spreads" utilizando a plataforma Thinkorswim. Ele detalha a entrada e saída de posições, destacando a importância de ter uma lista de observação e escolher ações fundamentadas antes de iniciar um "credit spread". É dada ênfase no uso de indicadores técnicos como estocásticos e RSI para determinar momentos de sobrecompra ou sobrevenda. O autor utiliza exemplos práticos de ações como Tesla, mostrando como identificar linhas de suporte e resistência no gráfico e posicionar as operações abaixo dessas áreas. Ele explica como selecionar o DTE (dias para expiração) ideal e escolher strikes com base nas probabilidades e no índice delta. Durante o vídeo, várias estratégias de equilíbrio entre taxa de ganho e risco-recompensa são apresentadas, desde aproximar-se de deltas mais altos para maiores créditos até focar em deltas baixos para taxas de vitória mais altas. Além disso, aborda estratégias de saída, recomendando obter lucros em 50% ou encerrar a operação em 21 dias para expiração, independentemente do comportamento do gráfico. Por fim, o criador oferece um guia gratuito com estratégias de opções para ajudar traders a obter rendimentos consistentes.

収穫

  • 📈 Uso de indicadores como estocásticos para avaliar momentos de entrada.
  • 📊 Importância de ter uma lista de ações fundamentadas.
  • ✍️ Linhas de suporte e resistência ajudam a determinar zonas estratégicas.
  • ⏳ Escolha de DTE com base nas condições e rerisco pessoal.
  • ⚖️ Exploração de deltas altos para maiores créditos ou baixos para maior taxa de vitória.
  • 💰 Estratégia de saída sugerida: 50% de lucro ou 21 DTE.
  • 🛠️ Configuração direta na plataforma Thinkorswim.
  • 🔄 Combinação de análise técnica e análise do mercado de opções.
  • 🕵️ Avaliação criteriosa do "spread" máximo permitido por premiuns.
  • 📥 Guia opcional para estratégias consistentes oferecido pelo autor.

タイムライン

  • 00:00:00 - 00:05:00

    Introdución á estratexia de "credit spreads" utilizando a plataforma Think or Swim, enfocándose en identificar as condicións óptimas no gráfico para entrar en operacións e establecer "watchlists" de accións axeitadas, priorizando as que son fundamentalmente fortes.

  • 00:05:00 - 00:10:00

    Análise de como usar os osciladores, como o estocástico lento, para identificar momentos de sobrevenda ou sobrecompra no mercado, marcando áreas clave de soporte para crear "bull put spreads" en accións específicas como Tesla.

  • 00:10:00 - 00:15:00

    Exploración do uso de cadeas de opcións para seleccionar "short strikes" axeitados baseados en deltas, avaliando diferentes enfoques en función da tolerancia ao risco e o obxectivo de taxa de ganancias (win rate) para maximizar os beneficios proporcionalmente.

  • 00:15:00 - 00:23:40

    Discusión sobre as estratexias de saída para "credit spreads", incluíndo obxectivos de gaño do 50% e revisións en puntos chave como 21 DTE, con opcións adicionais baseadas en análise técnica e indicadores como o RSI ou estocásticos para decidir o mellor momento para saír.

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マインドマップ

ビデオQ&A

  • Que ferramentas são usadas para identificar momentos de entrada?

    Indicadores técnicos como estocásticos e RSI.

  • Qual a importância de linhas de suporte e resistência?

    Elas ajudam a localizar zonas estratégicas para posicionar os "credit spreads" abaixo ou acima do mercado.

  • O que é DTE e como ele afeta as operações?

    DTE significa "dias para expiração" e influencia no valor do prêmio e risco da operação.

  • Como escolher o strike ideal?

    Baseando-se nas probabilidades indicadas pelo delta e considerando o equilíbrio entre taxa de ganho e risco-recompensa.

  • Quais são as estratégias de saída recomendadas?

    Sair com 50% de lucro ou em 21 dias para expiração.

  • Qual é a vantagem de escolher deltas altos?

    Oferecem maiores créditos, mas com menor taxa de vitória.

  • O que é abordado no guia gratuito mencionado?

    Três estratégias de opções para gerar rendimentos consistentes em pouco tempo de dedicação diária.

  • É possível calcular a expectativa da operação?

    Sim, mas requer os resultados reais de negociação, não apenas os dados iniciais.

  • Por que evitar ações com IV acima de 100%?

    Porque altas volatilidades implicam maior risco de movimentos extremos no mercado.

  • Qual plataforma é usada como base no tutorial?

    Thinkorswim da TD Ameritrade.

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  • 00:00:00
    all right all righty so in today's video
  • 00:00:02
    I'm going to show you the entries and
  • 00:00:04
    exits for credit spreads I'm going to
  • 00:00:06
    show you exactly how to enter into a
  • 00:00:09
    credit spread and also when to exit
  • 00:00:11
    right so basically what we want to see
  • 00:00:12
    on the chart before we get into a credit
  • 00:00:16
    spread so for this I'm going to be using
  • 00:00:18
    the think of swim web platform so as you
  • 00:00:20
    can see down here it says think of swim
  • 00:00:22
    web so through this think of s web
  • 00:00:24
    platform we're going to start to
  • 00:00:26
    construct our uh credit spreads at the
  • 00:00:28
    same time we're also going to look at a
  • 00:00:30
    few charts to take a look to see you
  • 00:00:32
    know which are the ones that you know
  • 00:00:33
    has an opportunity for us to put on a
  • 00:00:36
    credit spread so first off you need to
  • 00:00:38
    have like a watch list right a watch
  • 00:00:40
    list of a number of stocks now how many
  • 00:00:42
    stocks you want that's totally up to you
  • 00:00:44
    and what kind of stocks that you want to
  • 00:00:45
    go for up to you again all right I have
  • 00:00:47
    already created you know a number of
  • 00:00:49
    videos to share you know what I'm
  • 00:00:50
    looking for when it terms of uh stock
  • 00:00:53
    selection for trading options and
  • 00:00:56
    generally uh when I'm trading credit
  • 00:00:58
    spreads especially for the bput spread I
  • 00:01:00
    like to find stocks that are
  • 00:01:02
    fundamentally strong right so uh you can
  • 00:01:05
    go through to some of my other videos on
  • 00:01:06
    my channel where I talk about it already
  • 00:01:09
    so for this video right so the very
  • 00:01:10
    first thing we want to go through is to
  • 00:01:13
    the charts right so you want to go to
  • 00:01:14
    the charts and of course you want to
  • 00:01:16
    cycle through all the different you know
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    stocks that you have in your watch list
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    so for this example uh is on Tesla right
  • 00:01:24
    so as you can see down here Tesla on the
  • 00:01:26
    right hand side uh the stock has
  • 00:01:28
    actually been selling off quite a bit
  • 00:01:30
    over the couple of last few weeks so as
  • 00:01:33
    you can see the market has been selling
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    off down here now uh the thing that I
  • 00:01:38
    want to look out for when it comes to
  • 00:01:41
    trading credit spreads uh whether I want
  • 00:01:43
    to put on the bull put spread of or the
  • 00:01:45
    bare call spread for individual stocks
  • 00:01:47
    well one thing that you know you can use
  • 00:01:50
    would be the stochastics right so for
  • 00:01:52
    this is the slow stastics now you can
  • 00:01:55
    use the RSI if you want to as well so
  • 00:01:58
    basically what the sto STC does is that
  • 00:02:01
    it tracks whether the market is in an
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    overbought or oversold situation right
  • 00:02:07
    so naturally if we want to get into a
  • 00:02:09
    bull put spread we definitely want to
  • 00:02:10
    find you know a stock where you know at
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    least it is oversold right so if it's
  • 00:02:15
    oversold then there is a you know a
  • 00:02:18
    higher probability that the market can
  • 00:02:19
    go up rather than it come down right
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    because you know imagine the market
  • 00:02:24
    keeps going up and then you want to put
  • 00:02:25
    on a bull spread right that doesn't
  • 00:02:27
    sound too strategic right so as much as
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    possible we want to put all the odds in
  • 00:02:32
    our favor so the first thing that I will
  • 00:02:34
    look at down here would be the
  • 00:02:36
    stochastics so the stochastics as you
  • 00:02:38
    can see it's already oversold right so
  • 00:02:40
    if it's oversold now the next thing we
  • 00:02:43
    want to take a look at is possible areas
  • 00:02:46
    that we can actually sell our bull put
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    spread right so in this case it's
  • 00:02:50
    oversold we want to go for the bullish
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    credit spread which is the put credit
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    spread also known as the buut spread so
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    first thing is I want to try and look
  • 00:02:57
    for you know support areas so as you can
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    see down here there are you know
  • 00:03:02
    previously two lows so to speak where
  • 00:03:05
    you know prices have bounced off right
  • 00:03:07
    one is down here and the other one is
  • 00:03:09
    the one right at the bottom so what I'm
  • 00:03:11
    going to do is I'm going to draw a line
  • 00:03:13
    across right so I'm going to go to the
  • 00:03:15
    drawing tools down here click on trend
  • 00:03:18
    line then I'm going to click on this
  • 00:03:20
    down here and then just draw a line
  • 00:03:22
    across so this way will give me you know
  • 00:03:24
    an idea let me know you know where was
  • 00:03:27
    the last support place right so as you
  • 00:03:29
    can see the last support place was
  • 00:03:30
    somewhere around 205 and then the one at
  • 00:03:33
    the bottom we want to draw another trend
  • 00:03:36
    line as well so I'm going to draw this
  • 00:03:38
    trend line as well I'm going to stretch
  • 00:03:39
    it across so for this trend line it is
  • 00:03:43
    somewhere around
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    13.25 somewhere around here right so
  • 00:03:49
    right now we have two support areas so
  • 00:03:51
    ideally what we want is to have our buo
  • 00:03:54
    put spread below this uh support lines
  • 00:03:58
    right so where is it going to be is it
  • 00:03:59
    going to be below this first one or
  • 00:04:01
    below the second one now this really
  • 00:04:03
    depends also on you know the option
  • 00:04:06
    chain right what kind of uh uh credit
  • 00:04:08
    I'm able to get when I put on the buut
  • 00:04:11
    spread but generally you know I like to
  • 00:04:13
    put the one that is right at the bottom
  • 00:04:16
    right I would suggest the one right at
  • 00:04:18
    the bottom because this seems to hold
  • 00:04:21
    generally this seems to be more of a
  • 00:04:23
    stronger support than this one right at
  • 00:04:25
    least because it seems like you know the
  • 00:04:26
    market has just gone straight through
  • 00:04:28
    down here whereas this is where the last
  • 00:04:30
    real bounce off is so from here the next
  • 00:04:34
    thing I will do is that I will go over
  • 00:04:36
    to the trade tab down here so you can
  • 00:04:38
    see the trade tab so the trade tab I
  • 00:04:40
    want to do is I want to pull out the
  • 00:04:42
    option chain right so as you can see
  • 00:04:44
    down here the option chain there are
  • 00:04:45
    quite a number of DTE now I've gone
  • 00:04:48
    through also you know why I chose
  • 00:04:50
    certain DTE but some people you know
  • 00:04:52
    they like to go for the uh shorter term
  • 00:04:54
    DTE well generally I like to go for
  • 00:04:56
    somewhere around 45 DTE right so as you
  • 00:04:59
    can see see down here uh there's the 43
  • 00:05:02
    and the 57 so I think both of them are
  • 00:05:05
    pretty fine pretty okay now you can see
  • 00:05:07
    the next thing I want to look at is
  • 00:05:09
    pretty much the volatility right I want
  • 00:05:11
    to make sure that this IV down here on
  • 00:05:13
    the right hand side is pretty similar
  • 00:05:15
    with each other especially you know
  • 00:05:17
    sometimes when they exchange they
  • 00:05:19
    release new weekly options right now as
  • 00:05:22
    you can see down here this most likely
  • 00:05:23
    is not newly released and how do I know
  • 00:05:26
    that is because generally when they
  • 00:05:28
    newly release one of those uh options
  • 00:05:31
    right for the new DTE the volatility the
  • 00:05:34
    IV down here generally will tend to be
  • 00:05:36
    lesser than the one surrounding it right
  • 00:05:38
    so let's say for example the one above
  • 00:05:39
    and below this weekly one down here is
  • 00:05:42
    at around 50% right 5050 51% so
  • 00:05:46
    sometimes when the newly released one
  • 00:05:47
    just comes out this could be around 40
  • 00:05:49
    something per right maybe 45% 46% then
  • 00:05:52
    in that case I might just want to avoid
  • 00:05:54
    it because you don't want to Short
  • 00:05:55
    Change yourself right if you're going to
  • 00:05:57
    have you know lower IV it means your
  • 00:05:58
    premium is not going to going to be you
  • 00:06:00
    know that high compared to what it
  • 00:06:02
    should be and also your Deltas are going
  • 00:06:04
    to be closer to where the current market
  • 00:06:06
    price is that means to say if you're
  • 00:06:08
    going to play something at 30 Delta it's
  • 00:06:10
    going to be nearer to where the market
  • 00:06:11
    is so is generally it kind of slightly
  • 00:06:14
    increases the risk by a little so that
  • 00:06:16
    is why you know I want to take a look at
  • 00:06:18
    IV first in this case now as for what is
  • 00:06:20
    the IV range I'm looking for I generally
  • 00:06:22
    do not have a preference right as long
  • 00:06:24
    it's not few 100% right because if you
  • 00:06:26
    go for stocks like AMC uh game stop
  • 00:06:29
    those kind of uh stocks where they give
  • 00:06:31
    you know a few 100% i' be very wary of
  • 00:06:34
    that because it also means that you know
  • 00:06:36
    the market expects a very very very huge
  • 00:06:39
    move right so I don't like to see
  • 00:06:40
    something above 100 over per whereas for
  • 00:06:43
    this around 50% even 30% right for
  • 00:06:45
    example Google will be 20 something per
  • 00:06:47
    even 30% and I think those are fine as
  • 00:06:50
    well right so for this let's just use
  • 00:06:52
    the March 2 one 43 days as an example
  • 00:06:56
    right so what we're going to do is we're
  • 00:06:58
    going to go to the put side right so
  • 00:06:59
    we're going to click this down here
  • 00:07:01
    click more until we have all the uh
  • 00:07:04
    option change uh sorry the option
  • 00:07:07
    strikes that comes out that you know
  • 00:07:10
    that we might want to choose so the
  • 00:07:12
    first thing that we want to look out for
  • 00:07:13
    is at the Delta down here right so as
  • 00:07:16
    you can see down here this Delta column
  • 00:07:18
    this is where we will decide what our
  • 00:07:20
    short strike is right so the very first
  • 00:07:22
    thing we want to choose is based on our
  • 00:07:24
    short strike so how do you want to
  • 00:07:26
    decide what is the short strike so there
  • 00:07:29
    is no hard and fast rule as to what is
  • 00:07:32
    the Delta that you definitely want to
  • 00:07:34
    but it also really depends you know how
  • 00:07:37
    bullish you are on the underline right
  • 00:07:39
    so let's say for example if you very
  • 00:07:41
    very bullish then you want to go for
  • 00:07:43
    slightly higher Delta right maybe even
  • 00:07:44
    35 or even 40 Deltas right so let's say
  • 00:07:48
    for example you go for the 40 Delta so
  • 00:07:50
    what you want to do is you click on this
  • 00:07:52
    and then you click on the 205 so let's
  • 00:07:54
    say for example your risk is somewhere
  • 00:07:56
    around you know $500 thereabouts right
  • 00:07:59
    so in this case uh if we have a five
  • 00:08:02
    point WID spread that means our risk is
  • 00:08:04
    roughly around maybe
  • 00:08:06
    $300 in this case because the max race
  • 00:08:09
    is simply the width of the spread right
  • 00:08:12
    minus of the credit that you receive so
  • 00:08:14
    as you can see in this case the width of
  • 00:08:15
    this spread is Five Points we minus off
  • 00:08:17
    the credit which is around 1.95 now if
  • 00:08:20
    you want to clarify and double check
  • 00:08:22
    what exactly is the risk all you have to
  • 00:08:24
    do is just click this review down here
  • 00:08:26
    right so as you can see down here review
  • 00:08:28
    it says 300 $16 right so if you have
  • 00:08:31
    slightly more risk right that you want
  • 00:08:34
    to allocate to the trade then you can
  • 00:08:35
    increase this right maybe you can go to
  • 00:08:37
    200 so now this is 10p point white uh
  • 00:08:40
    put credit spread so you can see down
  • 00:08:42
    here the credit you receive is about
  • 00:08:43
    $3.65 which is about 365 right less the
  • 00:08:47
    uh uh commissions all right around
  • 00:08:49
    $363 or so now you can see the buying
  • 00:08:52
    power effect down here 636 so for defin
  • 00:08:55
    risk strategies buying power effect or
  • 00:08:58
    in this case down here the buying power
  • 00:09:00
    effect is basically the max loss that
  • 00:09:02
    you will experience on the trade right
  • 00:09:04
    so this is very different compared to
  • 00:09:06
    undefined risk strategies like the short
  • 00:09:08
    putut or even the strangle right for
  • 00:09:11
    that I will not go into that for this
  • 00:09:12
    video so for this you just need to know
  • 00:09:14
    that your buying power effect is the
  • 00:09:16
    same as your max loss right so as you
  • 00:09:18
    can see down here we constructed one
  • 00:09:20
    that's around 41 uh what do you call
  • 00:09:22
    that 41 Delta now if you have this 41
  • 00:09:25
    Delta yes you're going to have you know
  • 00:09:27
    quite a bit of a credit as you can see
  • 00:09:29
    $3.65 for for the credit is pretty good
  • 00:09:32
    but the thing is that you're going to
  • 00:09:33
    give up in terms of your win rate right
  • 00:09:35
    so your win rate is going to be slightly
  • 00:09:37
    lesser right so how do you tell what's
  • 00:09:39
    the win rate so win rate generally you
  • 00:09:42
    can use the Delta as an indication right
  • 00:09:44
    so if the Delta is around 40 then it
  • 00:09:47
    just means that you know you take 100%
  • 00:09:49
    minus 41% right so 41 is just an
  • 00:09:52
    indication of 41 Delta is the indication
  • 00:09:55
    that you know it will be there will be a
  • 00:09:57
    41% chance that this strike will will be
  • 00:09:59
    in the money at expiration right so this
  • 00:10:01
    is just a very rough calculation right
  • 00:10:03
    so you take 100 minus around 41 what you
  • 00:10:05
    get is around a 60% win rate right
  • 00:10:08
    around 59% so you get 59% win rate which
  • 00:10:11
    is not that high now if you want to get
  • 00:10:14
    a higher win rate then what you want to
  • 00:10:16
    do is you want to go for slightly lower
  • 00:10:18
    Delta right so maybe you might want to
  • 00:10:20
    go for a 30 Delta so if you go for a 30
  • 00:10:22
    Delta and let's go for 10o WID spread
  • 00:10:25
    right so let's say for example for this
  • 00:10:27
    this 10o wide spread that you have down
  • 00:10:29
    here your credit you notice is
  • 00:10:32
    $257 so this is about you know about a
  • 00:10:35
    dollar or so lesser than the one at the
  • 00:10:37
    41 Delta so this is the trade-off right
  • 00:10:40
    as you can see right if you want to have
  • 00:10:42
    a higher win rate you go for a lower
  • 00:10:45
    Delta for your short putut but at the
  • 00:10:47
    same time if you have a lower Delta you
  • 00:10:49
    have a higher win rate you will have to
  • 00:10:51
    settle for lesser premiums right so this
  • 00:10:53
    is the trade-off now on the other end
  • 00:10:56
    the Very extreme one where you want very
  • 00:10:58
    very High win rate right let's say for
  • 00:11:00
    example you want 90% win rate if you
  • 00:11:03
    want to go for something like a 90% win
  • 00:11:05
    rate then you're looking at somewhere
  • 00:11:06
    around here right around 119 Deltas or
  • 00:11:10
    even lesser right if you want to go even
  • 00:11:12
    higher in terms of your win rate but
  • 00:11:13
    there is one problem down here is that
  • 00:11:16
    your win rate although it's going to be
  • 00:11:17
    very high the credit that you're going
  • 00:11:19
    to receive is you know it's going to be
  • 00:11:21
    very little right so as you can see down
  • 00:11:23
    here let's go for the 10p point WID
  • 00:11:25
    spread again so 175 165 now you only
  • 00:11:29
    only have 85 cents in terms of your
  • 00:11:32
    credit right the premium that you
  • 00:11:33
    receive is about $85 by the way if you
  • 00:11:35
    like this video so far Please Subscribe
  • 00:11:37
    and also click the thumbs up button and
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    also do get your free copy of the
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    options income blueprint where I share
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    the top three options strategies that
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    help you generate a consistent income
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    each month trading just one to two hours
  • 00:11:49
    a day right so if you want to go ahead
  • 00:11:51
    to get this copy just head on over to
  • 00:11:53
    options with davis.com blueprint all
  • 00:11:55
    right back to the video but your risk
  • 00:11:57
    down here is pretty high high right you
  • 00:11:59
    can see down here your risk is about
  • 00:12:02
    $916 so what you have effectively done
  • 00:12:05
    is that you have increased the win rate
  • 00:12:07
    but you have also you know change your
  • 00:12:09
    risk to reward ratio that you know in
  • 00:12:12
    order for you to let's say for example
  • 00:12:15
    you have one Max loser right now
  • 00:12:18
    generally if you manage it at around 21
  • 00:12:20
    DTE right like what I always mention in
  • 00:12:22
    a lot of my videos If you manage it
  • 00:12:24
    around 21 DTE days to expiration then
  • 00:12:27
    the chances of you actually realizing
  • 00:12:29
    this Max loss is not very high right
  • 00:12:31
    only if the market really you know goes
  • 00:12:34
    all the way down way past this uh even
  • 00:12:36
    this long put strike that you're down
  • 00:12:38
    here 165 if goes way below that then of
  • 00:12:41
    course yeah there's there's a
  • 00:12:43
    possibility that you're going to lose
  • 00:12:44
    you know the max loss but other than
  • 00:12:46
    that at 21 DTE there's still going to be
  • 00:12:47
    quite a bit of extrinsic value left so
  • 00:12:50
    you generally won't lose all of this but
  • 00:12:52
    one thing to take note down here is that
  • 00:12:54
    although you have a very high R rate
  • 00:12:55
    roughly about what 90% because this is
  • 00:12:58
    around 11 Delta but your win rate or
  • 00:13:01
    rather your risk reward ratio is about 1
  • 00:13:03
    is to 10 right you make about $83 and
  • 00:13:06
    you lose about $916 given that hey uh if
  • 00:13:09
    you do lose the max loss so this is one
  • 00:13:11
    thing that you want to take note of do
  • 00:13:13
    you want to always keep winning but
  • 00:13:15
    occasionally you have one of those you
  • 00:13:17
    know pretty big losers or do you want to
  • 00:13:19
    have on the other end the opposite end
  • 00:13:22
    you know very very high credit right and
  • 00:13:24
    your risk to re ratio is actually not so
  • 00:13:27
    bad right if you take a look at this
  • 00:13:28
    your risk ratio is about 1 is to two
  • 00:13:31
    right uh you're risking about 600 plus
  • 00:13:35
    to make about 300 plus so your risk is
  • 00:13:37
    two to make one and your win rate around
  • 00:13:41
    here would be somewhere around uh about
  • 00:13:44
    60% right because it's about 40 Deltas
  • 00:13:47
    all right so this is basically how you
  • 00:13:49
    decide you know where you want to place
  • 00:13:51
    your put credit spread so generally if
  • 00:13:53
    you want something you know that is well
  • 00:13:56
    balanced then I would suggest somewhere
  • 00:13:58
    around 30 dels right 30 35 dels that
  • 00:14:00
    would be pretty decent right so
  • 00:14:02
    somewhere around here now the other
  • 00:14:04
    thing that actually influences us where
  • 00:14:07
    we're going to choose our strikes also
  • 00:14:08
    is very dependent on you know where our
  • 00:14:11
    support area is right so as you can see
  • 00:14:13
    down here the support down here is
  • 00:14:16
    around 205 so if we construct the 2 191
  • 00:14:21
    so as you can see down here they already
  • 00:14:22
    put it on the chart for us to see we can
  • 00:14:25
    see immediately that we have already
  • 00:14:26
    placed the put credit spread you know
  • 00:14:28
    below this one down here right below
  • 00:14:31
    this 205 support area so you know if the
  • 00:14:34
    market comes down here and then it
  • 00:14:36
    bounces back up then that's good right
  • 00:14:37
    we have profited on this uh put credit
  • 00:14:40
    spread but if you want to be more
  • 00:14:41
    conservative and you want to play it
  • 00:14:43
    safer and you want to place it below
  • 00:14:45
    this bottom one then you want to look
  • 00:14:47
    for a strike below
  • 00:14:49
    13.25 right so in this case we have to
  • 00:14:52
    adjust it again so we have to go back to
  • 00:14:54
    our trade tab so let's go to our trade
  • 00:14:58
    tab open up the option chain again and
  • 00:15:00
    then let us go to the one that we were
  • 00:15:02
    choosing I believe it was the March I
  • 00:15:04
    2nd right so as you can see down here so
  • 00:15:07
    it was below 1 193 right so below 193 we
  • 00:15:11
    only have one that is uh uh closest is 1
  • 00:15:14
    190 right so let's try this so at 1 190
  • 00:15:17
    you notice that it's at 21 Deltas so 21
  • 00:15:20
    Deltas just mean that we have about an
  • 00:15:21
    80% win rate all right 80% win rate
  • 00:15:24
    let's do the 10o wide strike and see you
  • 00:15:26
    know what is the credit that we receive
  • 00:15:28
    so we can receive about
  • 00:15:31
    .73 and let's take a look at our you
  • 00:15:33
    know sort of the max risk reward ratio
  • 00:15:36
    by the way guys this is only the max
  • 00:15:38
    risk to the max reward right many times
  • 00:15:41
    you may not necessarily get the max risk
  • 00:15:43
    like I mentioned because you're going to
  • 00:15:44
    exit early but also you may not also
  • 00:15:47
    necessarily get the max credit if you do
  • 00:15:49
    not want to hold all the way to
  • 00:15:50
    expiration so if you're planning to
  • 00:15:52
    calculate you know like the expectancy
  • 00:15:54
    what a lot of people like to calculate
  • 00:15:55
    based on you know the average win rate
  • 00:15:58
    times the average uh win minus of the
  • 00:16:01
    average loss rate times the average loss
  • 00:16:04
    that you incur that's the expectancy
  • 00:16:06
    that they will give you but you cannot
  • 00:16:08
    use that on this uh actual uh
  • 00:16:10
    probability which they give you down
  • 00:16:12
    here because not all the time you're
  • 00:16:13
    going to get a Max loss not all the time
  • 00:16:15
    you're going to get a Max winner right
  • 00:16:16
    there'll be times where that's in
  • 00:16:17
    between and if you were to get it out
  • 00:16:20
    earlier right let's say around 21 tte
  • 00:16:22
    you have a different result again so
  • 00:16:24
    again you cannot calculate the
  • 00:16:25
    expectancy just based off of whatever is
  • 00:16:28
    given to you by default right so you
  • 00:16:30
    have to actually use the results based
  • 00:16:32
    on your trading your trading results to
  • 00:16:34
    actually calculate that now getting back
  • 00:16:36
    to our put credit spread down here you
  • 00:16:38
    can see down here it's 190 to 180 and
  • 00:16:41
    it's about 80% win rate based on this 21
  • 00:16:44
    and then you can see right you make 171
  • 00:16:46
    in terms of the max profit and then
  • 00:16:48
    buying power is 8 to8 so it's actually
  • 00:16:50
    not too bad if you want to go with this
  • 00:16:52
    if you are actually okay with this then
  • 00:16:54
    what you want to do is just go ahead and
  • 00:16:56
    send this uh put credit spread trade in
  • 00:16:59
    now let's say for example you don't
  • 00:17:01
    really like that it's so far away right
  • 00:17:04
    although you have a very high wind rate
  • 00:17:05
    you're not very satisfied with this kind
  • 00:17:07
    of uh what do you call the risk reot
  • 00:17:09
    ratio so instead what you want to do is
  • 00:17:12
    you want to First wait for the price let
  • 00:17:14
    me just go back to the Chart again so
  • 00:17:16
    what you want to do is that you want to
  • 00:17:18
    go back to the chart and then you want
  • 00:17:21
    to see that this price down here
  • 00:17:23
    actually trades a little bit lower first
  • 00:17:25
    right if it trades a little bit lower
  • 00:17:28
    then in this case we are able to get a a
  • 00:17:32
    put credit spread with a higher credit
  • 00:17:34
    better risk ratio below down here right
  • 00:17:37
    so let me try and adjust the chart down
  • 00:17:39
    here let me just close this off and see
  • 00:17:41
    whether we actually get it all right
  • 00:17:43
    there you go so down here you can see
  • 00:17:45
    that this is already below where our
  • 00:17:47
    support line is which is actually good
  • 00:17:49
    right but at the moment if you're not
  • 00:17:50
    satisfied with the credit wait for this
  • 00:17:52
    to go a little bit lower then you enter
  • 00:17:54
    into the credit spread because at this
  • 00:17:56
    point of time if you enter into the
  • 00:17:57
    credit spread chances are that this 20
  • 00:18:00
    Delta over here let me just reopen up
  • 00:18:02
    the option chain again is this one down
  • 00:18:05
    here so as the market actually starts to
  • 00:18:08
    go lower this Delta starts to increase
  • 00:18:11
    as well right everything starts to
  • 00:18:12
    increase right that means this one may
  • 00:18:14
    start to become in the money or at the
  • 00:18:16
    money so as the market goes lower when
  • 00:18:19
    this becomes maybe at 30 or 35 Delta
  • 00:18:22
    then you can start to enter into the
  • 00:18:24
    trade right because we already know
  • 00:18:25
    roughly what is the kind of risk to
  • 00:18:27
    reward based on the 30 to 35 Delta kind
  • 00:18:29
    of a put spread right so if you were to
  • 00:18:31
    reconstruct the 30 to 35 one let's say
  • 00:18:33
    the 35 uh Delta short strike we know
  • 00:18:36
    we'll be getting roughly about $310
  • 00:18:39
    right so what we can actually do is that
  • 00:18:42
    we can wait until this one gets down
  • 00:18:45
    near somewhere around here whereby this
  • 00:18:47
    becomes around 35 Delta and then we take
  • 00:18:50
    a look at the credit right if the credit
  • 00:18:52
    is somewhere around $3 something as well
  • 00:18:53
    then we can enter into a trade right so
  • 00:18:57
    this is for the the put credit spread
  • 00:19:00
    now what about the call Credit spread so
  • 00:19:02
    the call Credit spread is simply the
  • 00:19:04
    opposite so let's go back to the Chart
  • 00:19:06
    again down here so as you can see for
  • 00:19:08
    this down here what I'm looking for
  • 00:19:10
    before placing the call Credit spread in
  • 00:19:12
    this case is we want the price to
  • 00:19:14
    actually trade up right we want the
  • 00:19:15
    price to go much higher and wait until
  • 00:19:18
    the stochastics is overbought and then
  • 00:19:21
    we want to see at that point of time
  • 00:19:23
    where exactly is the price right maybe
  • 00:19:24
    when the price goes up down here maybe
  • 00:19:26
    around 260 then this will start to show
  • 00:19:30
    an overbo signal right then at this time
  • 00:19:32
    this is where I'll start to pull out you
  • 00:19:34
    know the trend line to try and find you
  • 00:19:36
    know where is the resistance area so as
  • 00:19:38
    you can see there's quite a few right
  • 00:19:40
    you have a resistance area at 265 you
  • 00:19:42
    have another one down here around 270
  • 00:19:44
    and another one around 280 right so it
  • 00:19:47
    really depends on where the market is
  • 00:19:50
    when it's an overboard signal right if
  • 00:19:52
    the market is all the way at around
  • 00:19:54
    271 uh and then it shows an overboard
  • 00:19:57
    signal then the one we want to use is
  • 00:19:59
    somewhere around 280 which is our
  • 00:20:02
    resistance so again we want to just draw
  • 00:20:04
    that out so use the Drone line right
  • 00:20:08
    click on this one time and then just
  • 00:20:10
    extend it to the other side so for here
  • 00:20:12
    we can see somewhere around 278.50 6
  • 00:20:16
    right so let's say for example the
  • 00:20:17
    market has already gone up the market
  • 00:20:18
    has gone up and we see that you know
  • 00:20:20
    it's at an overbought area then we want
  • 00:20:23
    to go to our option chain again right at
  • 00:20:25
    the point of time we want to go to
  • 00:20:26
    option chain go to the trade tab same
  • 00:20:29
    thing open up this one and then go to
  • 00:20:32
    the DTE that you want to choose right so
  • 00:20:34
    we'll be looking at the call Credit
  • 00:20:35
    spread at this point now at this point
  • 00:20:37
    you notice that if you were to choose
  • 00:20:39
    the one at 280 as our short strike it's
  • 00:20:41
    just going to be too far away right it's
  • 00:20:43
    like 7 Delta but in the advance we can
  • 00:20:47
    somewhat already know roughly what kind
  • 00:20:49
    of credit we will get provided you know
  • 00:20:51
    in the next few days right because
  • 00:20:53
    remember the DTE as it gets lesser and
  • 00:20:55
    lesser our premium will also shrink as
  • 00:20:58
    as well so you cannot say that you know
  • 00:21:00
    I'm waiting for it to get to close to
  • 00:21:01
    280 and maybe a week has passed a week
  • 00:21:04
    has passed this DTE will now go down to
  • 00:21:07
    about 30 what 36 days so if 36 Days you
  • 00:21:11
    cannot measure the kind of credit you
  • 00:21:13
    get based on what you get right now
  • 00:21:15
    because right now you have about 43 days
  • 00:21:17
    so at the point of time you may want to
  • 00:21:18
    go to the next one already right next
  • 00:21:20
    one after a week later should be around
  • 00:21:22
    50 days but just get a general sense of
  • 00:21:25
    what kind of credit we can get let's
  • 00:21:27
    just take a look at around the 35 to you
  • 00:21:30
    know 30 Delta so in this case we have
  • 00:21:31
    the 33 Delta one down here so it's
  • 00:21:34
    around 235 so provided that at the point
  • 00:21:37
    of time you know when the market goes up
  • 00:21:39
    this 280 will be somewhere around 33
  • 00:21:42
    Delta we can take a look at roughly what
  • 00:21:45
    kind of uh credit we can get on average
  • 00:21:47
    right so maybe it's around $237 $2
  • 00:21:50
    thereabouts right especially you know if
  • 00:21:52
    the days to expiration left becomes
  • 00:21:54
    lesser and lesser now let's talk about
  • 00:21:57
    exits so how do we actually exit our
  • 00:21:59
    trade so generally for me if I want to
  • 00:22:02
    exit a credit spread I generally have a
  • 00:22:05
    very simple rule right it's either at
  • 00:22:07
    50% take profit or 21 DTE right so I do
  • 00:22:11
    not even look at the chart to see what
  • 00:22:13
    the chart is doing you know just to exit
  • 00:22:15
    my trade but for some people people
  • 00:22:17
    might you know use technical analysis so
  • 00:22:19
    maybe for yourself if you were to take a
  • 00:22:21
    look at the chart and if you see that
  • 00:22:23
    let's say for example we we're looking
  • 00:22:25
    at the put credit spread right in this
  • 00:22:26
    case let's take a look at put credit
  • 00:22:28
    spread so maybe if you see that the
  • 00:22:30
    market keeps going up and it's still far
  • 00:22:32
    away from this resistance area down here
  • 00:22:36
    and you think that you know the market
  • 00:22:37
    still has some room to go and there's
  • 00:22:39
    not many days left to expiration you
  • 00:22:41
    could maybe want to choose to hold all
  • 00:22:42
    the way to expiration right so maybe
  • 00:22:45
    that is what you might want to do if you
  • 00:22:47
    use technical analysis or maybe some
  • 00:22:48
    indicator right maybe the other way you
  • 00:22:50
    can use is using this stochastic or the
  • 00:22:53
    RSI to see hey if it becomes overbought
  • 00:22:56
    then maybe that's time to get out of
  • 00:22:58
    your uh buut spread because right you
  • 00:23:00
    don't want to get into a situation
  • 00:23:02
    whereby the market starts to come down
  • 00:23:03
    again and erode your profits okay so
  • 00:23:06
    that's how I would tackle exit and as
  • 00:23:08
    you can see guys it's pretty pretty
  • 00:23:10
    simple okay guys so I hope you like this
  • 00:23:13
    video and have an insight as to how you
  • 00:23:15
    can actually construct the credit spread
  • 00:23:18
    on your trading platform by the way if
  • 00:23:20
    you like this video then you absolutely
  • 00:23:22
    going to love this next video which I
  • 00:23:23
    have for you so go ahead and watch that
  • 00:23:25
    video right now also if you haven't
  • 00:23:27
    already got your free copy of the
  • 00:23:29
    options income blueprint you can do so
  • 00:23:31
    just by clicking this link down here on
  • 00:23:33
    your screen and you'll be able to get it
  • 00:23:35
    for free all right I will see you in the
  • 00:23:38
    next video
タグ
  • credit spreads
  • Thinkorswim
  • estocásticos
  • RSI
  • operações com opções
  • taxa de ganho
  • risco-recompensa
  • suporte e resistência
  • DTE (dias para expiração)
  • Tesla
  • deltas