Life-Changing Money: Ride the Banana Zone w/ Raoul Pal

00:39:23
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zbnlBmUayT0

概要

TLDRThe podcast episode explores the intersection of macroeconomics, cryptocurrency, and technology in what's termed the exponential age. As we approach the year 2030, significant changes are anticipated, and the episode highlights the importance of preparing financially for these shifts. It touches on topics such as the rise of AI, its potential consciousness, and the adoption of cryptocurrencies by institutions like the White House. The host, Ral Pal, discusses upcoming potential growth periods for cryptocurrencies, referred to as the "banana zone," driven by global liquidity trends. The episode also advises viewers on how to navigate the volatile financial landscape to secure their future. There is an emphasis on comprehensive learning, as exemplified by the Festival of Learning, aiming to equip individuals with knowledge about these pivotal subjects. Overall, the episode stresses the need for strategic foresight and financial preparation in light of impending economic and technological upheavals.

収穫

  • 🔔 Subscribe to support the podcast.
  • 🚀 Explore the intersection of macro, crypto, and technology.
  • 📅 Important changes expected by 2030.
  • 🪙 Cryptocurrency's growth tied to global liquidity.
  • 🎓 Festival of Learning enhances understanding.
  • 🤖 AI plays a crucial role in future developments.
  • 💹 Prepare financially ahead of economic shifts.
  • 📈 Focus on strategic investments and trends.
  • 🔑 Use the 'don't mess this up' thesis for decisions.
  • 💬 Experts provide insights into navigating changes.

タイムライン

  • 00:00:00 - 00:05:00

    Ral Pal e etsa kakaretso ea podcast ea hae, 'The Journeyman,' moo a buang ka ho hokahanya lipakeng tsa macro, crypto, le theknoloji. O buella bohlokoa ba ho shebella le ho ngolisa kanale ho fumana baeti ba maemo a holimo.

  • 00:05:00 - 00:10:00

    Ral o etsa tlhahiso e ikhethileng ho Festival of Learning ea Real Vision moo a tlang ho fetisa maikutlo a hae ka 2023 le bokamoso ba crypto, a sebelisang maikutlo a hae a Global Macro Investor. The Banana Zone ke karolo ea bohlokoa ea puisano.

  • 00:10:00 - 00:15:00

    O hlalosa ho tsamaellana ha 'liquidity' ea lefatše le 'crypto' moo a bontšang lichate tse ngata le patterns tsa 'wedge' ho netefatsa likhahla tsa marakeng. Ho latela charts, crypto e lokela ho hlaka 110,000 pele e oela pele ho selemo se secha.

  • 00:15:00 - 00:20:00

    Ral o fana ka maikutlo a mangolong khahlanong le tse ling tsa crypto tse kang Solana le SUI, a fana ka maikutlo a hore Litecoin e tla hlola ha Ethereum e ntse e le mothating oa ho phatloha, empa ETH e ka tloaela ho feta Bitcoin ha ISM e etsa tsela.

  • 00:20:00 - 00:25:00

    O tsitlallela hore ba sebetsa ka 'dont fuck this up' thesis moo ba khethang matsete a itseng bakeng sa sepheo sa nako e telele le ho qoba ho amalga nakong e khutšoane.

  • 00:25:00 - 00:30:00

    Ral o fetisa maikutlo a ho ngola molao-motheo oa ntho e 'ngoe le e 'ngoe ha a ntse a hlalosa seo a tšepang hore e tla ba li-season tsa crypto moo Ethereum e tla feta Bitcoin ka lebaka la maemo a moruo a ntlafetseng.

  • 00:30:00 - 00:39:23

    O phethela ka ho re mathata a likoloi le 'Banana Zone' a teng e le kgatelopele e tla pheta-pheta, a bua ho feta ka hore na ba ka etella pele jwang.

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ビデオQ&A

  • What is the main focus of the podcast episode?

    The main focus is on macroeconomics, cryptocurrency, and advancements in technology as we approach 2030.

  • Why is 2030 considered significant in the podcast?

    2030 is considered significant due to anticipated major economic and technological changes, termed the economic singularity.

  • What does the podcast suggest about the future of cryptocurrency?

    The podcast suggests that cryptocurrency will continue to be influenced by global liquidity trends and will play a crucial role in the approaching technological era.

  • What advice is given to the audience about preparing for future economic changes?

    The podcast advises viewers to financially prepare themselves by potentially investing in cryptocurrency and staying informed about macroeconomic indicators.

  • Who is the host of this podcast episode?

    The host of the podcast is Ral Pal.

  • What does the term "banana zone" refer to in the podcast?

    The "banana zone" refers to a predicted high-growth period for cryptocurrencies, driven by specific market and liquidity conditions.

  • What is the significance of the "Festival of Learning" mentioned in the podcast?

    The Festival of Learning aims to educate participants about important topics like cryptocurrency and technology, bolstered by expert insights.

  • What type of guests are featured on the podcast?

    The podcast features discussions with experts across fields like AI, macroeconomics, and cryptocurrency.

  • What role does AI play in the podcast's narrative?

    AI is discussed as a pivotal technology influencing the present and future, including considerations of AI consciousness.

  • How does the podcast suggest dealing with fears of market volatility?

    The podcast suggests avoiding short-term fear-driven decisions by focusing on larger trends and maintaining disciplined investment strategies.

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  • 00:00:00
    hi everyone sorry to interrupt but this
  • 00:00:01
    is the cheesy podcast bit that gets on
  • 00:00:03
    everyone's nerves but it's really
  • 00:00:04
    important to me please if you can like
  • 00:00:07
    the channel and also subscribe it helps
  • 00:00:09
    me a lot to get the best guess in the
  • 00:00:11
    world for you guys so click like And
  • 00:00:14
    subscribe appreciate it thanks H
  • 00:00:17
    everyone I'm R pal and welcome to my
  • 00:00:19
    show the journeyman where we explore
  • 00:00:22
    that Nexus of macro crypto in the
  • 00:00:25
    exponential age of
  • 00:00:26
    Technology now it's getting towards
  • 00:00:29
    Christmas and the holiday season we're
  • 00:00:31
    all kind of getting our travel plans
  • 00:00:33
    sorted out thinking about spending time
  • 00:00:35
    with friends and family I thought I'd do
  • 00:00:37
    a little special for you um what I'm
  • 00:00:39
    going to do is release the video I did
  • 00:00:41
    for the real Vision Festival of learning
  • 00:00:43
    that was only on the real Vision
  • 00:00:45
    platform about my presentation of the
  • 00:00:47
    year ahead for crypto how the banana
  • 00:00:49
    Zone plays out I hopefully it'll be a
  • 00:00:52
    good Christmas present to you and give
  • 00:00:54
    you some idea how to navigate now it was
  • 00:00:55
    a few weeks old but I think it still
  • 00:00:57
    holds up very well today you know it's
  • 00:01:00
    been an extraordinary year we've
  • 00:01:02
    interviewed or I've managed to interview
  • 00:01:03
    some amazing people on the channel we've
  • 00:01:06
    explored everything from AI
  • 00:01:07
    Consciousness to crypto and everything
  • 00:01:10
    in the middle it's a real privilege to
  • 00:01:12
    be able to have these conversations and
  • 00:01:14
    share them with you and hopefully you're
  • 00:01:16
    seeing how all of these things fit
  • 00:01:18
    together crypto is just one of the parts
  • 00:01:20
    of the equation as is macro as is
  • 00:01:22
    technology we're all going towards this
  • 00:01:25
    economic Singularity where I think we've
  • 00:01:27
    got maybe five years before the entire
  • 00:01:29
    our system changes we got five years to
  • 00:01:33
    make as much money as possible so we can
  • 00:01:35
    protect ourselves and our families from
  • 00:01:37
    the massive change that lies ahead you
  • 00:01:39
    can already see it you know if we start
  • 00:01:41
    to see the AI have Consciousness and
  • 00:01:43
    crypto is being adopted by the White
  • 00:01:45
    House what happens next year what
  • 00:01:47
    happens when the robots come what
  • 00:01:48
    happens when we're going to Mars what
  • 00:01:50
    yeah there is so much that is happening
  • 00:01:52
    and so much will become complicated and
  • 00:01:54
    I'll be there for you on that journey to
  • 00:01:57
    navigate to make sense of it all and to
  • 00:01:59
    put you point you in the right direction
  • 00:02:02
    but anyway all I wanted to do is really
  • 00:02:04
    wish you a fantastic Christmas or
  • 00:02:06
    holiday season and an amazing New Year
  • 00:02:09
    and I'll see you back in 2025 for more
  • 00:02:12
    of the journey man when I'll take you on
  • 00:02:15
    that journey into the future take care
  • 00:02:17
    out there join me Ral pal as I go on a
  • 00:02:21
    journey of Discovery through the macro
  • 00:02:23
    cryto and exponential age landscapes in
  • 00:02:26
    the journey man I talked to the smartest
  • 00:02:28
    people in the world so we can all become
  • 00:02:31
    smarter
  • 00:02:36
    together welcome
  • 00:02:38
    everybody to the Festival of learning
  • 00:02:41
    Festival of learning the Banana's own
  • 00:02:43
    Edition Festival of learning something
  • 00:02:45
    that we've been doing since the pandemic
  • 00:02:47
    where we all get together and we have an
  • 00:02:49
    intense day of learning about topics
  • 00:02:53
    that are important to us the banana Zone
  • 00:02:56
    and crypto are the most important topics
  • 00:02:58
    of the moment and we we want to help you
  • 00:03:00
    in your journey of understanding so you
  • 00:03:04
    get to understand how better to navigate
  • 00:03:07
    this so I'm going to do a presentation
  • 00:03:09
    first then Jamie Coots who's our chief
  • 00:03:12
    crypto analyst um you see him mainly in
  • 00:03:14
    the Pro crypto tier um he will come on
  • 00:03:17
    do a presentation about the Nexus of AI
  • 00:03:19
    in crypto and then we've got lots of
  • 00:03:21
    people from mean coins to a great
  • 00:03:24
    presentation by suie and a really fun
  • 00:03:26
    panel with Club Dean sui and Club and
  • 00:03:30
    thank you guys are sponsors of the
  • 00:03:31
    Festival of learning um and you'll see
  • 00:03:34
    some great presentations from them both
  • 00:03:36
    Ultra interesting hi R here listen I
  • 00:03:40
    think we've got until 2030 before the
  • 00:03:43
    economic Singularity arrives now it
  • 00:03:45
    might not be the exact date but it's
  • 00:03:46
    around then so we have about six years
  • 00:03:50
    to figure out how to unfuck our future
  • 00:03:52
    I've put together a report to help you
  • 00:03:54
    called prepare for 2030 it's going to
  • 00:03:57
    help you take the first steps in that
  • 00:03:59
    Journey to make sure you're secure past
  • 00:04:01
    2030 so just click on the link below and
  • 00:04:04
    start your journey now um okay so let's
  • 00:04:08
    get on to riding the banana with ra
  • 00:04:12
    which is my session now which is a
  • 00:04:13
    ridiculous name but that's what I come
  • 00:04:15
    up with now I just want to just level
  • 00:04:18
    set with you the first thing I want you
  • 00:04:20
    to do is stop doing
  • 00:04:24
    this this is the five minutely chart of
  • 00:04:28
    Bitcoin and it's all
  • 00:04:31
    drama I want you to zoom out and get a
  • 00:04:34
    proper perspective stop the drama of
  • 00:04:36
    Twitter of oh my God it broke 100,000
  • 00:04:38
    it's falling below 100,000 it's Fallen
  • 00:04:40
    10,000 points and then it's going back
  • 00:04:41
    up again all of this is the wrong way to
  • 00:04:44
    trade crypto to capture that opportunity
  • 00:04:47
    to unfuck your future so I'm going to
  • 00:04:50
    show you the big picture so I'll stop
  • 00:04:52
    sharing this screen and flip you on to a
  • 00:04:54
    slideshow that I've put together for you
  • 00:04:56
    all um now what's important about this
  • 00:04:59
    is when I do these presentations this is
  • 00:05:02
    not real vision's views These are My
  • 00:05:04
    Views R pal and My Views the DNA of My
  • 00:05:07
    Views come from Global macro investor my
  • 00:05:11
    premium research service there not part
  • 00:05:12
    of real Vision people in real Vision get
  • 00:05:15
    access to that level of thinking in real
  • 00:05:18
    Vision Pro real Vision Pro is where I
  • 00:05:21
    outline it the real Vision members my
  • 00:05:23
    macro crypto exponential age of
  • 00:05:26
    Technology Nexus and that incredible
  • 00:05:29
    port portfolio which is one of the best
  • 00:05:31
    performing portfolios I've ever seen
  • 00:05:34
    luckily um also many of these are charts
  • 00:05:38
    also do appear in real Vision Plus as
  • 00:05:40
    part of the macro investing tool that
  • 00:05:41
    Julian Bell who works with me uh at GMI
  • 00:05:46
    he's the chief macro strategist there
  • 00:05:49
    his ideas and my ideas come into into
  • 00:05:52
    that MIT product as well but it's less
  • 00:05:55
    in depth doesn't give you the Nuance of
  • 00:05:57
    really what's behind it which is what
  • 00:05:58
    the pro is just so you understand so
  • 00:06:01
    anyway let's cut to the presentation so
  • 00:06:04
    I can run you through the banana Zone
  • 00:06:06
    where we are where we're
  • 00:06:08
    going
  • 00:06:10
    okay
  • 00:06:13
    so about well in September we started
  • 00:06:16
    producing this chart you already know
  • 00:06:20
    that I have identified that Global
  • 00:06:23
    liquidity is the driver of crypto assets
  • 00:06:28
    and for vast periods of time they
  • 00:06:29
    actually just mirror Global liquidity
  • 00:06:32
    when you get into the speculative
  • 00:06:33
    blowoff season it actually tends to
  • 00:06:36
    decouple to the upside because these are
  • 00:06:38
    exponential assets but right now we're
  • 00:06:41
    still in the point where they're highly
  • 00:06:44
    coupled so in September we showed this
  • 00:06:46
    chart and said the first leg of the
  • 00:06:48
    banana zone is
  • 00:06:50
    coming cut it
  • 00:06:52
    today I mean that's perfect I I
  • 00:06:56
    didn't expect that to work as well as
  • 00:06:57
    that I mean that is literally perfect
  • 00:07:00
    and that chart suggests that we go
  • 00:07:03
    somewhere close to 110,000 maybe we
  • 00:07:05
    overshoot it whatever it is but into the
  • 00:07:08
    end of the year before we correct so
  • 00:07:12
    this is the burst phase of the banana
  • 00:07:13
    zone so how is it looking in markets
  • 00:07:16
    themselves let's flip through some
  • 00:07:17
    charts now these were put together
  • 00:07:19
    yesterday we moved around a bit but suie
  • 00:07:22
    which you know a the responser of this B
  • 00:07:26
    as you know I'm on the foundation of sui
  • 00:07:28
    but as I've always said I'm merary with
  • 00:07:30
    my Capital this has been one of our core
  • 00:07:32
    recommendations in both Global macro
  • 00:07:34
    investor and pro crypto and it's been
  • 00:07:36
    doing extraordinary well the shortterm
  • 00:07:38
    chart of this
  • 00:07:41
    breakout salana here's a daily chart of
  • 00:07:44
    salana salana had a big wedge pattern
  • 00:07:47
    big consolidation broke out we're re-
  • 00:07:50
    wedging right now we should break out
  • 00:07:52
    again into year end to follow that
  • 00:07:54
    liquidity pattern
  • 00:07:57
    banone ethereum this is the weekly chart
  • 00:08:00
    of ethereum the weekly chart of ethereum
  • 00:08:02
    hasn't yet broken out but it's very
  • 00:08:05
    close so whether we break out this month
  • 00:08:08
    which is my hunch and then maybe retest
  • 00:08:11
    in the January pullback from liquidity
  • 00:08:15
    um or we pull back here for a bit and
  • 00:08:17
    then explode through afterwards either
  • 00:08:19
    way that chart that wedge pattern to me
  • 00:08:22
    is one of the most powerful patterns in
  • 00:08:23
    all of crypto and suggest we've got a
  • 00:08:26
    very big move in ethereum to come
  • 00:08:30
    the other thing that I look at is I look
  • 00:08:32
    at the the cross rates between various
  • 00:08:35
    crypto to try and pick the strongest one
  • 00:08:37
    I've already shown that salana is very
  • 00:08:40
    strong and it's expected to keep going
  • 00:08:42
    higher but when I compare sui against
  • 00:08:45
    salana it's starting to break out from
  • 00:08:47
    this inverse Head and Shoulders pattern
  • 00:08:50
    which suggests to me that I would switch
  • 00:08:52
    more assets from salana into s that's
  • 00:08:56
    not saying salana is going to go down in
  • 00:08:58
    fact I I think salana does extremely
  • 00:09:01
    well and you should be overweighted
  • 00:09:03
    there because it is a second cycle more
  • 00:09:06
    proven protocol wellu is newer and
  • 00:09:08
    riskier but it looks like the alpha is
  • 00:09:11
    going to come from the new token the new
  • 00:09:14
    performer ofu and we can hear adony
  • 00:09:17
    talking about this uh later today when
  • 00:09:21
    um Chris bulock interviews him about
  • 00:09:24
    s to
  • 00:09:26
    show another interesting chart I quite
  • 00:09:28
    like is is Doge sorry xrp has been super
  • 00:09:31
    strong but really what we've seen is the
  • 00:09:35
    upward trend of sweet outperformance we
  • 00:09:37
    hit the bottom of the trend Channel and
  • 00:09:39
    we're likely to outperform xrp going
  • 00:09:42
    forwards again in that ongoing relative
  • 00:09:44
    outperformance again that's not saying
  • 00:09:46
    xrp goes down but I'm just giving you
  • 00:09:48
    the perspective of these cross rates to
  • 00:09:51
    understand the Nuance of markets because
  • 00:09:54
    really a lot of people have too much
  • 00:09:56
    assets spread across too many things
  • 00:09:58
    when you start comparing one asset to
  • 00:10:00
    the other you can actually narrow it
  • 00:10:02
    down and concentrate your bets into bets
  • 00:10:05
    that really matter a lot of the time you
  • 00:10:07
    think oh I want a bit of this and a bit
  • 00:10:08
    of that and a bit of this because that's
  • 00:10:10
    going up and that's going up and that's
  • 00:10:11
    breaking out you actually underperformed
  • 00:10:13
    by doing that I found that being more
  • 00:10:16
    concentrated in my bets using the don't
  • 00:10:19
    this up thesis which is have let's
  • 00:10:21
    say 80 or 90% in the main tokens and
  • 00:10:26
    those would be um salana um Bitcoin
  • 00:10:30
    ethereum then you can have waiting in
  • 00:10:33
    whatever you choose it to be where you
  • 00:10:35
    think you're going to find
  • 00:10:36
    outperformance including some means
  • 00:10:39
    which should be a much smaller part of
  • 00:10:40
    your portfolio because you're likely to
  • 00:10:42
    get wrecked you'll have fun doing so but
  • 00:10:45
    you're likely to get ragged okay next
  • 00:10:47
    chart xrp itself fabulous pattern look
  • 00:10:51
    at wedge after wedge after wedge after
  • 00:10:53
    the wedge so we're just building another
  • 00:10:55
    wedge now ready for the next break
  • 00:10:57
    higher so that move is clearly not done
  • 00:11:00
    um if you look at the weekly chart of um
  • 00:11:04
    xrp it's a stunner this massive 7 year
  • 00:11:07
    wedges broken who knows where this chart
  • 00:11:10
    goes to it's very powerful but then go
  • 00:11:12
    back to that chart of s versus xrp and
  • 00:11:16
    it's suggesting that s should even
  • 00:11:18
    outperform this so that's the
  • 00:11:21
    perspective I have now it's not always
  • 00:11:22
    going to be 100% right but that's how I
  • 00:11:24
    look at it um here's s salana
  • 00:11:29
    so we we've been consolidating the wedge
  • 00:11:32
    had the huge outperformance
  • 00:11:34
    consolidation breakout retest the
  • 00:11:36
    breakout Zone next leg should be S favor
  • 00:11:40
    because of the long-term chart and this
  • 00:11:42
    is sorry this is the weekly chart and
  • 00:11:44
    you saw the daily chart earlier with the
  • 00:11:46
    inverse Head and Shoulders stuff like
  • 00:11:48
    that so there's a lot of great charts
  • 00:11:52
    that are lining up that say
  • 00:11:53
    banone in mean land whiff dog whiff hat
  • 00:11:57
    inverse Head and Shoulders broke out
  • 00:11:59
    retest next leg higher should come
  • 00:12:04
    shortly Jupiter so Jupiter is
  • 00:12:08
    a is a it's kind of a leverage bet on
  • 00:12:11
    Soul because it's a DEX on Soul so more
  • 00:12:14
    Soul activity more Jupiter goes up so
  • 00:12:17
    it's broken out as well and looks very
  • 00:12:19
    positive these kind of wedge patterns
  • 00:12:21
    that we see are immensely powerful so
  • 00:12:24
    this is beta to
  • 00:12:26
    Soul um another one that did a very
  • 00:12:28
    similar was MOG it had exactly the same
  • 00:12:31
    wedge and then it exploded higher and
  • 00:12:33
    it's been exploding higher since as it
  • 00:12:35
    ended up getting listed on the major
  • 00:12:36
    exchanges so again you can see these
  • 00:12:39
    patterns they're human behavior on a
  • 00:12:41
    chart and they don't all happen at the
  • 00:12:44
    same time this is the hard thing about
  • 00:12:46
    the banana zone is different things pop
  • 00:12:48
    at different times and you you've always
  • 00:12:51
    trust me always got the feeling you've
  • 00:12:52
    got the wrong token then yours pumps
  • 00:12:57
    and then something pumps and you're like
  • 00:13:00
    do I chase this what have I got it wrong
  • 00:13:02
    stick with your program you'll probably
  • 00:13:04
    get it right over time if youve used the
  • 00:13:06
    don't this up thesis of asset
  • 00:13:09
    allocation so don't worry fomo is a
  • 00:13:12
    natural part of this Market the real
  • 00:13:14
    temptation is to chase every breakout
  • 00:13:18
    don't do that because they roll over
  • 00:13:21
    time they repeat the same patterns but
  • 00:13:22
    they're not all 100% in the same phase
  • 00:13:26
    the other one that's an absolute stunner
  • 00:13:28
    of a chart is Doge Doge just keeps doing
  • 00:13:31
    the same thing every cycle it does
  • 00:13:33
    consolidation consolidation
  • 00:13:35
    consolidation explosion consolidation
  • 00:13:37
    consolidation consolidation explosion
  • 00:13:40
    the explosion is always the banana Zone
  • 00:13:43
    and doge is the strongest characteristic
  • 00:13:47
    of the banana Zone it's this massive
  • 00:13:50
    meme um that gets the world's attention
  • 00:13:54
    it has been going since
  • 00:13:55
    2013 and it has been Unstoppable and
  • 00:13:58
    look at the breakout levels now if we
  • 00:14:00
    repeat anything like we did the last two
  • 00:14:03
    uh banana Zone periods we've got a hell
  • 00:14:06
    of a ride to come so doge is something
  • 00:14:10
    that I keep a close focus on um and
  • 00:14:13
    again once we Zoom down to the shorter
  • 00:14:15
    term torizon Doge and again this is
  • 00:14:17
    slightly out of day this from yesterday
  • 00:14:19
    but doge is wedging yet again these
  • 00:14:22
    wedges are fabulous patterns in Bull
  • 00:14:25
    markets or bare markets depending which
  • 00:14:27
    way you're looking at but they
  • 00:14:29
    consolidation the pause that refreshes
  • 00:14:31
    next leg higher so we're expecting any
  • 00:14:34
    day now digestion of a little bit of the
  • 00:14:37
    move we had with Bitcoin going to
  • 00:14:40
    104,000 consolidate consolidate then
  • 00:14:42
    something will break I don't know what
  • 00:14:44
    it was uh SOI broke yesterday broke to
  • 00:14:46
    the upside now it's consolidating maybe
  • 00:14:49
    it's Doge tomorrow and this rolling
  • 00:14:51
    breakouts breakouts breakouts is how it
  • 00:14:54
    happens and consolidation consolidation
  • 00:14:56
    consolidation and as people build
  • 00:14:58
    confidence we start moving into okay
  • 00:15:00
    bigger correction uh to come Doge
  • 00:15:04
    Bitcoin is like I think the most
  • 00:15:06
    humorous chart in all of humanity um
  • 00:15:09
    what it's saying is since Doge came out
  • 00:15:10
    in 2013 it's outperformed Bitcoin by
  • 00:15:14
    500% it's suggesting that doge is the
  • 00:15:17
    hardest currency in the known Galaxy now
  • 00:15:20
    if that chart plays out um and it breaks
  • 00:15:23
    that kind of downward sloping uh wedge
  • 00:15:27
    or or whatever Channel
  • 00:15:29
    and we go to a new High I mean that's
  • 00:15:32
    telling us something that we can't get
  • 00:15:34
    our heads around uh that doge is
  • 00:15:37
    literally a better currency than Bitcoin
  • 00:15:40
    and I know that's contentious I'm just
  • 00:15:41
    looking at the charts I find it
  • 00:15:43
    hilarious we may be living in a
  • 00:15:44
    simulation and it's probably Elon
  • 00:15:46
    simulation therefore this works
  • 00:15:50
    um one of the memes you all know I've
  • 00:15:52
    got smoking chicken fish smoking chicken
  • 00:15:54
    fish did a perfect cons you know rip up
  • 00:15:58
    and their long-term consolidation which
  • 00:16:00
    happens to be a wickoff reaccumulation
  • 00:16:02
    pattern we should expect it to go to the
  • 00:16:05
    top of the range around
  • 00:16:07
    the sort of 120 130 level chop around
  • 00:16:13
    there for a bit and then explode higher
  • 00:16:15
    so you know you can use these kind of
  • 00:16:17
    patterns as well but again they're all
  • 00:16:19
    suggested that we're in the banana Zone
  • 00:16:22
    the first leg of the banana Zone not
  • 00:16:24
    everything sinks they come one after the
  • 00:16:26
    other off the other then we get a big
  • 00:16:28
    correction and maybe in that bigger
  • 00:16:30
    correction it could be the Major's
  • 00:16:31
    correct and the alts explode higher I'm
  • 00:16:35
    not sure yet we'll have to wait and see
  • 00:16:37
    I don't trade it and we'll talk about
  • 00:16:39
    that correction in a bit smoking chicken
  • 00:16:40
    fish broke out of the downward sloping
  • 00:16:42
    wedge pattern as well so again just more
  • 00:16:46
    confirmation here's a leverage play on
  • 00:16:49
    onu which is deep deep book which is the
  • 00:16:52
    liquidity layer for S so the more if you
  • 00:16:56
    think of like the Jupiter idea the more
  • 00:16:58
    activity that happens onu the more deep
  • 00:17:00
    book is like to go up and it's like $180
  • 00:17:03
    million right now as an entire value now
  • 00:17:07
    if we're right about s that it that it
  • 00:17:09
    gets into well into the top 10 and
  • 00:17:11
    potentially the top five in this cycle
  • 00:17:14
    well the liquidity layer is going to be
  • 00:17:16
    extremely valuable um so you know there
  • 00:17:18
    could potentially and it's not not a
  • 00:17:20
    recommendation but it could do a 10x so
  • 00:17:22
    this is H saying if there are ways of
  • 00:17:25
    having leverage plays on top okay let's
  • 00:17:29
    go back to the liquidity story so the
  • 00:17:31
    liquidity story here is oh my God and
  • 00:17:34
    I've been said this chart a thousand
  • 00:17:35
    times by people oh my God what happens
  • 00:17:37
    is it all over is this the peak is this
  • 00:17:39
    the end do we get out now what happens
  • 00:17:41
    what happens panic panic panic panic
  • 00:17:43
    okay we had exactly the same
  • 00:17:47
    thing last time Trump was elected the
  • 00:17:50
    dollar was strong rates went up
  • 00:17:53
    liquidity
  • 00:17:54
    contracted the market had a big rally
  • 00:17:57
    which is Bitcoin and then in January
  • 00:18:00
    because of the lag what we found was a
  • 00:18:03
    sharp 27% correction in
  • 00:18:06
    Bitcoin um and then it ripped
  • 00:18:10
    higher ripped higher so much in fact
  • 00:18:14
    that it went up 23x now I'm not
  • 00:18:17
    expecting that because this was a much
  • 00:18:18
    earlier cycle but what we're saying is
  • 00:18:21
    that correction is not to fear that
  • 00:18:23
    correction is just a marker point from
  • 00:18:26
    phase one of the banana Zone to phase
  • 00:18:28
    two of the ban ban Zone phase two of the
  • 00:18:30
    banana Zone usually goes into US tax
  • 00:18:32
    season which is like April um then
  • 00:18:35
    there's usually a consolidation because
  • 00:18:37
    people have to sell tokens to pay taxes
  • 00:18:39
    and then there's usually phase three of
  • 00:18:41
    the banana zone is the rip into year end
  • 00:18:43
    and that's all driven by the liquidity
  • 00:18:46
    cycle so we can see these banana Zone
  • 00:18:49
    periods as they start appearing Bitcoin
  • 00:18:52
    just does this every time like Doge does
  • 00:18:56
    so we've just broken that part of the
  • 00:18:58
    cycle so this is the start of the banana
  • 00:19:00
    Zone as we start accelerating higher
  • 00:19:04
    going back
  • 00:19:05
    to uh liquidity here's Global M2 you see
  • 00:19:09
    global M2 does this a lot it also wedges
  • 00:19:11
    I love a wedge they're the best chart
  • 00:19:13
    patterns in the world and what happens
  • 00:19:15
    is it has a break higher than this
  • 00:19:17
    consolidation it's happened every time
  • 00:19:19
    we've got to the banan Zone period the
  • 00:19:22
    kind of us election cycle stuff like
  • 00:19:24
    that so we've done that we've re we've
  • 00:19:26
    corrected the breakout now global M2 is
  • 00:19:28
    actually driven by the strength of the
  • 00:19:30
    dollar now the dollar has started to
  • 00:19:33
    weaken we're expected to weaken going
  • 00:19:35
    forwards um and that will then reignite
  • 00:19:37
    the next phase of the banana Zone as we
  • 00:19:40
    start bouncing higher you can see those
  • 00:19:42
    Corrections in them too were short now
  • 00:19:44
    the reason being is we've got to roll
  • 00:19:47
    all of this Global liquidity we've got
  • 00:19:49
    massive amounts of debt to roll over and
  • 00:19:53
    you need liquidity to do it so that is
  • 00:19:56
    the game the big game the everything
  • 00:19:58
    code game that I've talked you about so
  • 00:20:00
    the everything go code game is very much
  • 00:20:02
    at play this is a phase the early phase
  • 00:20:05
    of the breakout this year is the year of
  • 00:20:08
    liquidity and that's why the year ahead
  • 00:20:11
    and that's why the banana Zone plays out
  • 00:20:14
    so
  • 00:20:16
    beautifully so we talked about global M2
  • 00:20:19
    being driven by the dollar so let's look
  • 00:20:22
    at the dollar and also rates is the
  • 00:20:24
    other part of um Financial conditions
  • 00:20:26
    and
  • 00:20:27
    liquidity so
  • 00:20:29
    what we're finding is that the dollar as
  • 00:20:32
    you can see and rates had moved away
  • 00:20:36
    from Trend that was the strength that we
  • 00:20:38
    saw this is what creates the the um the
  • 00:20:44
    down moving Global liquidity now what's
  • 00:20:46
    interesting is the city economic
  • 00:20:49
    surprises index which is a index of
  • 00:20:51
    whether the economy is beating forecast
  • 00:20:55
    or underperforming forecast says we
  • 00:20:57
    should now have a period of
  • 00:20:59
    underperforming forecast because it was
  • 00:21:01
    driven by the tightener conditions from
  • 00:21:03
    the dollar and rates now obviously we
  • 00:21:06
    know if the economy starts
  • 00:21:08
    underperforming forecast like we just
  • 00:21:10
    saw the unemployment rate rise to
  • 00:21:12
    4.2% once we start to see things like
  • 00:21:15
    that happening what happens is people
  • 00:21:18
    start thinking about we need to cut
  • 00:21:20
    rates more so that's a very interesting
  • 00:21:22
    thing so here in white is is rate Cuts
  • 00:21:26
    priced in very few rate Cuts priced in
  • 00:21:30
    so there's
  • 00:21:32
    like uh I don't know what the scale is
  • 00:21:34
    here but there's very little rate Cuts
  • 00:21:36
    priced in but it's
  • 00:21:37
    driven on a forward basis by the dollar
  • 00:21:41
    and the long end so it's now saying as
  • 00:21:44
    we weaken economic growth we should
  • 00:21:47
    start to see rate cuts and then as you
  • 00:21:50
    can see we're starting to see the pickup
  • 00:21:52
    um again in financial conditions which
  • 00:21:54
    is important and I'll come into that in
  • 00:21:56
    a
  • 00:21:57
    minute so when you put it all together
  • 00:21:59
    they're all the same thing FEG rate cuts
  • 00:22:01
    the dxy 10-year bond yelds they're all
  • 00:22:04
    highly mirroing each other 10year Bond
  • 00:22:06
    deals seem to be suggesting faster and
  • 00:22:09
    faster that the dollar should roll over
  • 00:22:12
    and rat should roll over
  • 00:22:14
    too that creates Financial conditions
  • 00:22:17
    and now what we've got here is financial
  • 00:22:20
    conditions index which is um rates the
  • 00:22:23
    dollar and oil prices has been
  • 00:22:25
    consolidating for a period of time and
  • 00:22:28
    it is is suggesting that the ism which
  • 00:22:31
    is the business cycle The Institute of
  • 00:22:33
    Supply manager survey should be much
  • 00:22:35
    higher I.E we've got economic growth to
  • 00:22:38
    come it leads by nine months so in nine
  • 00:22:40
    months time the economy will be a lot
  • 00:22:43
    stronger than it is today and this is
  • 00:22:46
    going to be important for you so all of
  • 00:22:48
    the stuff we talked about rates the
  • 00:22:50
    dollar um even oil prices all Drive
  • 00:22:54
    Financial conditions which drives
  • 00:22:56
    cryptocurrencies which drives markets in
  • 00:22:58
    general
  • 00:22:59
    which drives the business
  • 00:23:01
    cycle when we look at the
  • 00:23:02
    forward-looking basis on the business
  • 00:23:04
    cycle we can see things like the Philly
  • 00:23:06
    fed well then new orders index is
  • 00:23:09
    exploding higher now whether this is
  • 00:23:11
    just on the Trump Victory or whether
  • 00:23:15
    it's on um orders they see in advance
  • 00:23:19
    not sure yet Filly fed um expectations
  • 00:23:22
    index exploding higher Empire
  • 00:23:25
    manufacturing for that's for New York
  • 00:23:26
    exploding higher all suggesting the ism
  • 00:23:29
    is going to be super strong going
  • 00:23:31
    forwards why this matters is the ism the
  • 00:23:35
    business
  • 00:23:37
    cycle is the coincident factor for the
  • 00:23:41
    ethereum Bitcoin
  • 00:23:43
    cross so that says as ISM starts Rising
  • 00:23:48
    eth Starts outperforming
  • 00:23:51
    Bitcoin and why is that well it's a
  • 00:23:53
    function of ism
  • 00:23:56
    being confidence in the economy
  • 00:23:59
    disposable income or free cash flows
  • 00:24:02
    from businesses people get more have
  • 00:24:04
    more money and feel better and have more
  • 00:24:06
    confidence as the ism goes up the
  • 00:24:08
    business Cycle's better we're all
  • 00:24:09
    earning a bit more our businesses are
  • 00:24:11
    doing better we're making a bit more
  • 00:24:12
    profits and we recycle those profits
  • 00:24:14
    into Investments and we go further out
  • 00:24:17
    the risk curve which would be ethereum
  • 00:24:19
    we might also like ethereum because it
  • 00:24:21
    has a yield while Bitcoin doesn't so we
  • 00:24:23
    might Park more of our money into that
  • 00:24:25
    yield as well to make our money grow for
  • 00:24:27
    us so anyway if a big factor for eth
  • 00:24:31
    Bitcoin the business cycle crypto and
  • 00:24:33
    macro are the same thing and that's a
  • 00:24:35
    really important thing to know most of
  • 00:24:37
    the financial establishment hasn't
  • 00:24:39
    understand stood this but um at Global
  • 00:24:42
    macro investor we have entirely led the
  • 00:24:44
    way on this we have thousands of charts
  • 00:24:46
    we have more in-depth research on that
  • 00:24:48
    Nexus of macro and crypto than literally
  • 00:24:51
    anybody else on Earth and we're very
  • 00:24:53
    confident in how this plays out so when
  • 00:24:56
    we go back to the price chart hey Presto
  • 00:24:58
    it's another wedge this is the eth
  • 00:25:00
    Bitcoin weekly cross if you remember
  • 00:25:02
    when I started this presentation I said
  • 00:25:04
    stop using too shter term charts because
  • 00:25:07
    all you'd see on Twitter is eth's
  • 00:25:09
    terrible it's falling and it's just
  • 00:25:10
    going to underperform Forever look at
  • 00:25:12
    the big picture eth basically is the
  • 00:25:15
    same level versus Bitcoin that it was in
  • 00:25:17
    2017 it has held value over time which
  • 00:25:20
    is very important it shows the Lindy
  • 00:25:22
    effect that this thing is around and
  • 00:25:25
    it's here to stay so what we're doing is
  • 00:25:27
    bouncing off the bottom bottom Channel
  • 00:25:28
    now just as the ism is is about to pick
  • 00:25:31
    up and we either break that wedge which
  • 00:25:34
    is a big deal because that would be eth
  • 00:25:37
    outperforming Bitcoin even further or we
  • 00:25:41
    stay in that larger range but get to the
  • 00:25:43
    top of the range my base case is we
  • 00:25:46
    break out and eth outperforms now I know
  • 00:25:49
    nobody can believe that right now but
  • 00:25:51
    eth is a very different Beast to bitcoin
  • 00:25:53
    ether is a platform it's a compute
  • 00:25:56
    platform it's a storage platform it's a
  • 00:25:59
    huge system well Bitcoin is more of a
  • 00:26:03
    currency a store of value collateral
  • 00:26:05
    layer they're just very different things
  • 00:26:07
    and it's kind of stupid and idiotic that
  • 00:26:09
    we compare them but we're here to make
  • 00:26:12
    money and not have a philosophical
  • 00:26:14
    debate about what Bitcoin is versus
  • 00:26:16
    ethereum what I'm here to do is help all
  • 00:26:19
    of us unfuck our futures and it feels
  • 00:26:21
    that overweighting ethereum if you've
  • 00:26:23
    got ethereum that's the way to do it
  • 00:26:25
    versus Bitcoin now the ISN also has
  • 00:26:29
    another little piece of magic it
  • 00:26:31
    actually is the signifier for altcoin
  • 00:26:34
    season so altcoins a percent of Bitcoin
  • 00:26:36
    total market cap altcoins start
  • 00:26:39
    massively outperforming and again it's
  • 00:26:41
    driven by the same thing optimism a bit
  • 00:26:44
    more money a bit more Savings in your
  • 00:26:46
    pocket and you wanting to make your
  • 00:26:48
    money work for you you go further out
  • 00:26:50
    the risk curve so the key signal for for
  • 00:26:55
    um for altcoin season is the ISM going
  • 00:26:58
    higher and I've showed you why we think
  • 00:27:01
    it goes higher all of our work suggests
  • 00:27:03
    that it will ism is also this chart is
  • 00:27:07
    the same actually for nfts that's why
  • 00:27:09
    we've started to see nfts Rise it's all
  • 00:27:11
    written uh it's all driven by the same
  • 00:27:13
    thing nfts are people's savings get
  • 00:27:15
    recycled into a long-term
  • 00:27:18
    asset and then if we look at the crypto
  • 00:27:21
    open market cap excluding the top 10
  • 00:27:23
    known as others on um trading view lo
  • 00:27:27
    and behold a series of beautiful wedges
  • 00:27:29
    that wedge pattern is just is the is the
  • 00:27:32
    chart pattern of the gods that and the
  • 00:27:34
    head and shoulders pattern and here we
  • 00:27:36
    go and a couple of the wick offs and
  • 00:27:38
    here we go wedge massive break wedge
  • 00:27:41
    massive break
  • 00:27:43
    wedge I would suggest massive break so
  • 00:27:46
    where does this go we're at 400 um $400
  • 00:27:50
    billion dollar here do we go to trillion
  • 00:27:54
    do6 trillion it's possible it's possible
  • 00:27:58
    we just have to wait and see but you
  • 00:28:00
    know the orders of me the previous ones
  • 00:28:03
    were much larger it'll be less big this
  • 00:28:04
    side but I'm guessing we're going to see
  • 00:28:07
    the you know the mid- tier olds really
  • 00:28:10
    really start to um move in value and
  • 00:28:13
    that's where things like sui and SE and
  • 00:28:15
    Celestia and all of these things all lie
  • 00:28:18
    within these areas or whatever your
  • 00:28:20
    favorite token is and again please do
  • 00:28:23
    not think that you need to be a
  • 00:28:25
    maximalist in anyone thing we're trying
  • 00:28:27
    to out out perform use the charts of
  • 00:28:29
    your chosen token versus salana they
  • 00:28:32
    look like they're going to outperform
  • 00:28:33
    salana you're on to something good
  • 00:28:35
    please don't use something that's very
  • 00:28:37
    short term I want to see a proper basing
  • 00:28:40
    pattern that's why um I found sui
  • 00:28:42
    because it was outperforming pretty much
  • 00:28:44
    every token you might find something
  • 00:28:46
    else again don't go too far overweight
  • 00:28:48
    away from the don't this up thesis
  • 00:28:50
    the way to ride the banana sensibly it
  • 00:28:52
    will all play
  • 00:28:54
    out okay so here's our macro seasons in
  • 00:28:57
    this impossible to see chart and if
  • 00:28:59
    you've got color blindness you're
  • 00:29:00
    totally but I'm sorry for that
  • 00:29:03
    but here we go is we're in crypto summer
  • 00:29:07
    crypto summer finishes with the start of
  • 00:29:10
    the banana zone so we saw it well in
  • 00:29:12
    2020 2016 was great 2012 was great
  • 00:29:17
    but it is crypto full where the real
  • 00:29:20
    action starts we look at 13 it was
  • 00:29:22
    ridiculous 17 was ridiculous 21 was a
  • 00:29:26
    weird one and it was a weird one
  • 00:29:29
    actually because of a simple thing is
  • 00:29:31
    the
  • 00:29:32
    pandemic had caused a a faster spike in
  • 00:29:36
    in crypto summer but also the massive
  • 00:29:40
    liquidity injections started to get
  • 00:29:42
    withdrawn and the business cycle peaked
  • 00:29:44
    very quickly in March of
  • 00:29:47
    2021 and so we had liquidity peaking and
  • 00:29:51
    the business cycle peak in March 2021
  • 00:29:54
    and that stopped the second leg of the
  • 00:29:56
    rally the face three of The banam Zone
  • 00:29:59
    from really extending like it did in
  • 00:30:02
    2017 conditions for me are much more
  • 00:30:05
    similar to
  • 00:30:06
    2017 and that's what I think so let's
  • 00:30:09
    compare the previous Cycles now it's a
  • 00:30:10
    little bit difficult to see with all of
  • 00:30:12
    the various colors um but basically you
  • 00:30:15
    can see from the orange the current
  • 00:30:18
    pattern is looking very similar to
  • 00:30:22
    either the 2015 18 pattern or the
  • 00:30:26
    1821 we think it's much closer to the
  • 00:30:29
    20158 pattern and that we've got um that
  • 00:30:33
    we've got the an extended move to come
  • 00:30:38
    an extended banana so I've always been
  • 00:30:40
    asked and talked about my probability
  • 00:30:42
    waiting I do not see a peak in the cycle
  • 00:30:45
    early because guess what the business
  • 00:30:47
    cycle is at its bottom the White House
  • 00:30:49
    has just come in with all of the new
  • 00:30:51
    people their job grow grow grow grow
  • 00:30:52
    grow they will Force this
  • 00:30:55
    economy to grow and therefore the
  • 00:30:56
    business cycle has at least n months
  • 00:30:58
    probably 12 months to play out we could
  • 00:31:01
    even see an extended cycle into 2026 but
  • 00:31:04
    it will be a cycle it will not be a
  • 00:31:05
    super cycle because liquidity gets
  • 00:31:07
    withdrawn and then gets eventually
  • 00:31:09
    readed again as the economy heats up
  • 00:31:13
    but the back end loaded so we have a a
  • 00:31:17
    run into year end a
  • 00:31:20
    correction from liquidity then a run
  • 00:31:23
    into March April that that usually is
  • 00:31:25
    altcoin season Central then we tend to
  • 00:31:29
    have a pause or a pullback post tax
  • 00:31:32
    season late summer we kick off again
  • 00:31:35
    2017 we had a Bitcoin 10x in four months
  • 00:31:40
    so all sorts of drama can happen so the
  • 00:31:44
    lifestyle chips component that I've
  • 00:31:46
    talked about a lot I would use probably
  • 00:31:48
    the the you know Feb March April
  • 00:31:52
    strength if you want to take some
  • 00:31:54
    lifetile chps of 20% 15% 30% % 50%
  • 00:31:58
    whatever it is you want to maintain your
  • 00:32:01
    lifestyle then you've got the power to
  • 00:32:04
    run the second half of the bull market
  • 00:32:07
    because you're going to be in fear all
  • 00:32:09
    the way am I going to lose my money am I
  • 00:32:10
    going to get this wrong is it going to
  • 00:32:11
    be 2021 over again if you've secured
  • 00:32:14
    that thing your mortgage on your house
  • 00:32:16
    or your car payment or your that holiday
  • 00:32:18
    or paid off your debts whatever that
  • 00:32:20
    lifestyle goal is get that
  • 00:32:22
    sorted out as fast as possible it will
  • 00:32:24
    clear your head and allow you to extend
  • 00:32:26
    the cycle or if not run multicycles the
  • 00:32:29
    real wealth is actually made not by
  • 00:32:31
    trading the cycle but by running
  • 00:32:34
    multicycles because it compounds over
  • 00:32:36
    time so if you think of you know the the
  • 00:32:39
    the depths of macro crypto winter in
  • 00:32:45
    20 in 20 uh n 18 we were down at I don't
  • 00:32:50
    know 2,000 Bitcoin where are we now 100
  • 00:32:53
    a 50x you didn't have to do anything you
  • 00:32:56
    didn't have all the drama all the ups
  • 00:32:58
    and downs and oh my God FTX and all of
  • 00:33:00
    this all of it didn't matter so just
  • 00:33:04
    keep that in mind when you get o all of
  • 00:33:06
    you are overfocused on the cycle I want
  • 00:33:08
    to sell at the top and buy at the bottom
  • 00:33:09
    and I'm going to crush it take your LIF
  • 00:33:11
    cell chips off you can then run whatever
  • 00:33:13
    you want so we're getting closer to that
  • 00:33:16
    period here is the comparison um when
  • 00:33:20
    you put them all together the uh last
  • 00:33:23
    two harving and where we are now so
  • 00:33:26
    where we are now is is um very similar
  • 00:33:31
    to the white one and the white one is
  • 00:33:33
    the harving from the 2016 177 cycle now
  • 00:33:37
    look at both of those charts at exactly
  • 00:33:40
    like whatever it is 170 days after the
  • 00:33:43
    harving they both have this correction
  • 00:33:45
    the liquidity correction it's all the
  • 00:33:47
    same thing this is the everything code
  • 00:33:49
    it's all driven by uh liquidity and the
  • 00:33:52
    Bitcoin harving and the patterns that
  • 00:33:54
    emerge so that correction however long
  • 00:33:57
    that takes
  • 00:33:58
    call it a month three weeks that
  • 00:34:02
    correction ushers in phase two of the
  • 00:34:05
    banana Zone which tends to be the
  • 00:34:07
    violent propulsion of um SS the banana
  • 00:34:11
    Zone signature pattern so are we
  • 00:34:15
    overbought yet are we should we be
  • 00:34:16
    worried should we be thinking you know
  • 00:34:18
    my God you know what happens if it's
  • 00:34:20
    over 100,000 and it tops here well our
  • 00:34:23
    core risk indicator is nowhere near
  • 00:34:26
    overboard we're still barely
  • 00:34:29
    mid so it's suggesting we've got a lot
  • 00:34:32
    further to go when we look at the log
  • 00:34:35
    regression Channel this is my kind of
  • 00:34:37
    chart of Truth the thing that I find is
  • 00:34:39
    immensely helpful well we're not even at
  • 00:34:43
    the mean of the trend so we're still
  • 00:34:47
    below mean now we're going to go to one
  • 00:34:50
    or two standard deviations in fact it's
  • 00:34:52
    never not gone to two standard
  • 00:34:54
    deviations two standard deviations you
  • 00:34:57
    know you're talking
  • 00:34:59
    $500,000 plus Bitcoin now maybe it
  • 00:35:01
    doesn't maybe the law of diminishing
  • 00:35:03
    returns kicks in and gets to one
  • 00:35:04
    standard deviation well that gets you to
  • 00:35:06
    250,000 or so I'm not giving you
  • 00:35:09
    projections I'm giving you
  • 00:35:10
    contextualization of what an exponential
  • 00:35:13
    Trend looks like all to play for so
  • 00:35:16
    there's nothing to worry about cycle top
  • 00:35:19
    finder this has been a really good way
  • 00:35:21
    of finding the cycle top we are nowhere
  • 00:35:24
    there absolutely nowhere near so again
  • 00:35:28
    chances are we'll have a little pullback
  • 00:35:30
    uh in in January before well first we
  • 00:35:32
    hit year end little pullback in January
  • 00:35:35
    and we'll just keep ripping higher um
  • 00:35:37
    until we eventually hit the cycle top
  • 00:35:41
    but that's a long way from now and much
  • 00:35:44
    later towards the very end of 2025 or
  • 00:35:46
    even into 2026 we can't tell yet we see
  • 00:35:49
    how liquidity plays out but that's where
  • 00:35:51
    we are the bananas then so to picture
  • 00:35:53
    this if we just followed what happened
  • 00:35:56
    in 2017
  • 00:35:58
    the last time Trump got in uh government
  • 00:36:00
    came in is we had this correction driven
  • 00:36:02
    by liquidity um it would take us back
  • 00:36:05
    down to let's say the gap on the chart
  • 00:36:07
    something like
  • 00:36:09
    80,000 I I'm not sure that we get that
  • 00:36:13
    um because of beginning of the year
  • 00:36:16
    flows from institutions and other
  • 00:36:17
    players but a correction is the most
  • 00:36:20
    likely outcome it's very unlikely for it
  • 00:36:22
    to go in a straight line and you're all
  • 00:36:24
    going to go what should I do this looks
  • 00:36:25
    terrifying oh my God oh my God again
  • 00:36:27
    please please it's noise don't
  • 00:36:29
    this up says expect 30% pullbacks
  • 00:36:32
    so please do not start thinking how do I
  • 00:36:34
    hedge this do I do I top out do I sell M
  • 00:36:37
    mine up and buy them lower what you'll
  • 00:36:40
    do is you will lose out and you will
  • 00:36:42
    miss the rally because you've you've
  • 00:36:44
    overco complicated a simple trade the
  • 00:36:46
    simple trade is do nothing so please
  • 00:36:48
    think about doing nothing we also don't
  • 00:36:50
    know if Bitcoin Falls where the alts
  • 00:36:53
    take that pause and everybody focus on
  • 00:36:55
    alt coins and alts rip higher so we
  • 00:36:58
    don't know the structure of this so
  • 00:37:00
    again don't do anything unless it this
  • 00:37:03
    is why we don't use leverage right so
  • 00:37:06
    that's my view on this in the end this
  • 00:37:09
    is the game the game is the banana Zone
  • 00:37:12
    look where we are we've just started the
  • 00:37:14
    banana Zone we've had the boring Zone we
  • 00:37:18
    all suffered that we had a big boring
  • 00:37:20
    Zone this year much like the
  • 00:37:22
    2012 boring Zone we've just started now
  • 00:37:25
    look at the beginning of each one of
  • 00:37:27
    these there's this little wiggle which
  • 00:37:28
    is the correction that happens in
  • 00:37:30
    January great it means nothing on the
  • 00:37:34
    chart so the banana Zone lies ahead I've
  • 00:37:38
    given you the Playbook you can if you
  • 00:37:41
    play it right unfuck your future with
  • 00:37:43
    the banana ride the banana Zone with me
  • 00:37:46
    follow the don't this up rules it's
  • 00:37:49
    all to play for so anyway hopefully this
  • 00:37:52
    is useful to you I I keep trying to
  • 00:37:54
    simplify I see the same questions come
  • 00:37:55
    up and up and up and up and up again you
  • 00:37:57
    know is the market going to top here
  • 00:37:59
    what do I do oh my god when do I take
  • 00:38:01
    lifestyle chips how much seed do I have
  • 00:38:03
    how much Sal I can't help you with all
  • 00:38:05
    of these things I can just give you a
  • 00:38:07
    general contextualization and I hope
  • 00:38:09
    I've done it here the thing is breathe a
  • 00:38:11
    little bit go and touch some
  • 00:38:14
    grass stop hyperfocusing on the five
  • 00:38:17
    minute charts stop all the noise on
  • 00:38:19
    Twitter just relax ride the banana and
  • 00:38:23
    you'll unfuck your future anyway kids
  • 00:38:26
    that's enough for me
  • 00:38:28
    um in a little while Jamie Coots who is
  • 00:38:32
    really one of the greatest crypto
  • 00:38:33
    analysts in the world we're very lucky
  • 00:38:36
    to have him at real Vision he'll be
  • 00:38:38
    sharing some of his latest research with
  • 00:38:40
    you again we want to blow your minds and
  • 00:38:42
    show the quality of research now Jamie
  • 00:38:43
    is mainly in the proc crypto tier um the
  • 00:38:47
    pro crypto tier is where the heavy
  • 00:38:49
    thinking gets done in crypto we also do
  • 00:38:51
    it obviously in Pro macro from the
  • 00:38:52
    global macro investor but Pro crypto is
  • 00:38:55
    really for crypto heads who are really
  • 00:38:56
    into it there's also RV crypto as well
  • 00:38:59
    Jamie myself others were all involved in
  • 00:39:02
    that too we're here for you to help you
  • 00:39:05
    unfuck your future with a banana see you
  • 00:39:08
    around hey thanks for sticking around to
  • 00:39:10
    the end uh look if you enjoyed it hit
  • 00:39:13
    the Subscribe button and check out the
  • 00:39:14
    video here on the right hand side I'm
  • 00:39:16
    sure you'll enjoy that one as well and
  • 00:39:18
    if you're ready for more go to real.com
  • 00:39:21
    for/ jooin I'll see you there
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