Calculating ROI of adding a pool to my short term rental | Analytics deep dive

00:26:12
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cY1z59Xc_is

概要

TLDRLydia, who runs an Airbnb beach house in Florida, explores the feasibility of adding a pool to her property. She aims to analyze whether it would enhance her rental's return on investment (ROI). Using AirDNA, Lydia evaluates market trends, comparing properties with and without pools to project potential revenue increases. She considers initial costs, ongoing maintenance, and other aspects such as guest preferences and seasonal occupancy rates. Her analysis suggests that adding a pool could increase annual revenue, but also poses risks such as high upfront costs and potential changes in market demand. Lydia proceeds cautiously, contemplating the ROI, engaging with partners, and gathering feedback from existing pool owners. The decision process underscores the importance of detailed market research and cost-benefit analysis in property management.

収穫

  • 🏡 Analyzing the potential benefits and risks of adding amenities is crucial for property investments.
  • 📊 AirDNA is a valuable tool for assessing market trends and making informed decisions in real estate.
  • 📈 Adding a pool could potentially increase rental revenue but also involves significant costs.
  • 💡 Detailed market research and comparison are vital steps before making property modifications.
  • 🛠️ Understanding maintenance costs and potential issues helps in projecting future profitability.
  • 💸 ROI calculations should include all costs, and the investment should stand alone in its potential.
  • 🔍 Comparing similar properties with different amenities helps gauge potential market advantages.
  • 🤝 Partner and guest feedback provide insight into decision making for property alterations.
  • 📅 Seasonal trends and occupancy rates significantly impact the potential return of new amenities.
  • 🛑 Future market shifts can affect the advantages of added property amenities, requiring regular reassessment.

タイムライン

  • 00:00:00 - 00:05:00

    Lydia is considering adding a pool to her Airbnb property in Florida to potentially increase revenue. The initial analysis shows a significant revenue disparity between properties with pools and those without, prompting Lydia to gather market data and decide on the best amenity to add.

  • 00:05:00 - 00:10:00

    Step one involved deciding which amenity to investigate. Lydia noticed that high-performing Airbnb listings in her area often have pools, appealing especially to out-of-state visitors during the colder months. This initial observation led to a deeper market analysis using AirDNA data.

  • 00:10:00 - 00:15:00

    For the analysis, Lydia compared properties with and without pools, showing significant revenue and occupancy discrepancies. Listings with pools tend to generate higher annual revenue, have higher occupancy rates, and achieve higher average daily rates, supporting the potential profitability of adding a pool.

  • 00:15:00 - 00:20:00

    Lydia conducts a detailed examination of comparable listings, assessing factors like revenue, location, and potential additional amenities like mini-golf. She evaluates these aspects to predict how her property with a new pool might perform within the local market competition.

  • 00:20:00 - 00:26:12

    Projected financial outcomes show that adding a pool could substantially increase revenue, although costs and potential market saturation present risks. With careful consideration of construction costs, maintenance, and market trends, Lydia weighs the ROI and other factors, aiming for a prudent investment decision.

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ビデオQ&A

  • What factors influence the decision to add a pool to a rental property?

    Factors include potential revenue increase, initial and maintenance costs, market trends, and occupancy rates.

  • How much could adding a pool increase annual revenue for a rental property?

    Based on Lydia's analysis, adding a pool can potentially increase annual revenue by $40,000, but results vary depending on location and market conditions.

  • What is AirDNA and how does it help in decision making?

    AirDNA is a platform that provides market data to help property owners analyze trends and make informed decisions about amenities and pricing.

  • What are some potential downsides to adding a pool?

    Downsides include high initial costs, ongoing maintenance expenses, and the risk of not recovering the investment if market demand changes.

  • What is ROI and how is it calculated in this context?

    ROI (Return on Investment) is calculated by comparing the additional income generated by the pool to the investment cost. In an optimistic scenario, ROI could be 73%.

  • How should property owners compare listings when considering adding a pool?

    Owners should compare similar properties with and without pools, looking at revenue, occupancy rates, and average daily rates, as well as adjusting for amenities.

  • Is adding a pool a good decision for all rental properties?

    Not necessarily. It depends on market conditions, cost analysis, and individual property goals.

  • What are common steps in analyzing the feasibility of adding a pool?

    Steps include assessing market demand, comparing similar properties, projecting revenue, considering costs, and consulting with partners or other pool owners.

  • What risks are associated with adding new amenities to a rental property?

    Risks include unexpected maintenance issues, fluctuating demand, and changes in market price sensitivity.

  • How can pool owners manage potential surprises and maintenance issues?

    By budgeting conservatively, consulting experienced pool owners, and staying informed on market trends and property management strategies.

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  • 00:00:00
    have you thought about adding an amenity
  • 00:00:01
    to your short-term rental wondering
  • 00:00:03
    should I add a pool how will it affect
  • 00:00:05
    my expenses and overall will this be a
  • 00:00:08
    good return on investment today let's
  • 00:00:10
    walk through the analysis if we haven't
  • 00:00:12
    met yet hi my name is Lydia and I
  • 00:00:14
    operate a beach house Airbnb down in
  • 00:00:16
    Florida and this very question whether
  • 00:00:19
    or not to add a pool has been on my mind
  • 00:00:21
    for the past few months at first glance
  • 00:00:23
    the disparity between pool versus no
  • 00:00:26
    pool in a five-bedroom house in my
  • 00:00:28
    market appears to be $30,000 of Revenue
  • 00:00:31
    per year but before we drop $100,000
  • 00:00:35
    into this fresh new amenity let's do a
  • 00:00:37
    deeper dive on all the data your Market
  • 00:00:40
    might be different than mine and your
  • 00:00:41
    amenity of choice might be different
  • 00:00:42
    than mine but the process should very
  • 00:00:44
    much be the same Step One is deciding
  • 00:00:47
    which amenity to even look into for me
  • 00:00:49
    personally how I decided to look into a
  • 00:00:51
    pool is because pools in my area is
  • 00:00:53
    actually quite common it's obviously fun
  • 00:00:56
    in the warmer months to dip into a pool
  • 00:00:58
    and cool off but in the cooler months
  • 00:01:00
    like right now as I'm filming it it's
  • 00:01:02
    like snowing in Minnesota we get a lot
  • 00:01:04
    of outof State snowbirds and they would
  • 00:01:07
    love to come to a place that has still
  • 00:01:09
    warmish outdoors and a heated pool when
  • 00:01:11
    I look at my market overall and kind of
  • 00:01:13
    sort all the listings by highest
  • 00:01:15
    performing by Revenue the top ones are
  • 00:01:17
    often properties with a pool so as I was
  • 00:01:20
    going through my monthly review of the
  • 00:01:21
    market data in my area NPS everyone
  • 00:01:24
    should be doing this periodically to
  • 00:01:26
    stay up to date on their Market I was
  • 00:01:27
    just kind of clicking around on the
  • 00:01:29
    amenity filters on air DNA and that's
  • 00:01:31
    how I stumbled upon this difference in
  • 00:01:33
    revenue and it's been on my to-do list
  • 00:01:35
    to look into further ever since a huge
  • 00:01:38
    shout out to airdna for partnering with
  • 00:01:40
    us on this video I've been relying on
  • 00:01:42
    their Market data for my decision-making
  • 00:01:44
    process and you can give them a try for
  • 00:01:46
    free using the link in the description
  • 00:01:48
    box below they also have a paid
  • 00:01:49
    subscription option for more granular
  • 00:01:52
    details on the amenity filters and
  • 00:01:53
    whatnot step two after you've decided
  • 00:01:56
    what amenity you'd like to look into you
  • 00:01:58
    need to determine your comparator groups
  • 00:02:01
    for example if you were me you could
  • 00:02:02
    compare like five bedroom listings with
  • 00:02:05
    a pool versus five-bedroom listings
  • 00:02:07
    without a pool however in my area just
  • 00:02:10
    looking at the five bedroom houses would
  • 00:02:12
    be too small of a sample size not to be
  • 00:02:14
    a giant nerd but you need sufficient
  • 00:02:17
    sample sizes to make sure the outliers
  • 00:02:19
    don't have an outsized effect and if you
  • 00:02:21
    think about it my five-bedroom house
  • 00:02:23
    could at maximum house 12 guests but not
  • 00:02:27
    everyone who's booking my house is
  • 00:02:29
    exactly 12 people people some of them
  • 00:02:30
    might be eight people nine people and
  • 00:02:32
    they could be looking at a whole host of
  • 00:02:34
    other listings that could fit their
  • 00:02:37
    needs so kind of working backwards
  • 00:02:38
    knowing my target audience what are the
  • 00:02:41
    other properties that might also show up
  • 00:02:43
    in their search I decided in this case
  • 00:02:45
    the most applicable comparator groups
  • 00:02:47
    would be four to six bedroom listings
  • 00:02:49
    with a pool versus four to six bedroom
  • 00:02:51
    listings without a pool and compare how
  • 00:02:53
    they've been doing in terms of Revenue
  • 00:02:55
    occupancy all of their data this brings
  • 00:02:57
    us to step three a general compar side
  • 00:03:00
    by side of the two groups you want to
  • 00:03:02
    review the overall Trends in Supply in
  • 00:03:05
    demand and occupancy so what you're
  • 00:03:07
    doing here is pulling up in your area
  • 00:03:10
    filtering by the number of bedrooms and
  • 00:03:12
    I also filter by number of guests and
  • 00:03:13
    bathrooms to pull up the most relevant
  • 00:03:16
    comparison groups all right so pulling
  • 00:03:18
    them up side by side on the left hand
  • 00:03:20
    side we have the four to six bedroom
  • 00:03:22
    listings without a pool and on the right
  • 00:03:24
    hand side we have the same size same
  • 00:03:26
    number of guests same bathroom listings
  • 00:03:29
    but with the pool right away we see that
  • 00:03:32
    the annual revenue on average without a
  • 00:03:34
    pool is 93,000 versus with a pool is
  • 00:03:38
    $122,000 per year the occupancy is also
  • 00:03:41
    different by about 10% the average daily
  • 00:03:43
    rate um is slightly higher for the pool
  • 00:03:46
    group um same for the revar that's also
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    higher I think this is a sufficient
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    sample size having 35 versus 36 listings
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    in each group The amenities I mean
  • 00:03:56
    everyone should have air conditioning so
  • 00:03:58
    we can skip over that whole part looking
  • 00:04:00
    a little bit more under occupancy I
  • 00:04:03
    really like this graph and I like to
  • 00:04:05
    change it to the last 3 years to kind of
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    see in detail if there were any
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    anomalies between one year versus the
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    next I think on the pool side it kind of
  • 00:04:14
    ranges I don't know the Top Line Is It
  • 00:04:16
    ranges 50ish to 80% versus on the nopool
  • 00:04:21
    side it's like 40ish to Upper 60s so I
  • 00:04:24
    think consistently across all the months
  • 00:04:28
    having a pool does offer higher
  • 00:04:31
    occupancy rates and this trend seems to
  • 00:04:34
    be fairly consistent at least in the
  • 00:04:36
    past few years I think sometimes
  • 00:04:38
    occupancy is interesting to think about
  • 00:04:40
    in a weekend heavy Market it really just
  • 00:04:42
    means some places are booked for four
  • 00:04:44
    nights versus three nights versus two
  • 00:04:46
    nights on a weekend but anyway as far as
  • 00:04:48
    how long are the guests staying again
  • 00:04:51
    switching it to look at the past 3 years
  • 00:04:53
    I'd say they're very similar they're
  • 00:04:55
    both kind of 3 to 4 day weekends which
  • 00:04:58
    is also what I try to aim for this next
  • 00:05:01
    graph shows how many bedrooms the
  • 00:05:02
    listings have and it kind of just shows
  • 00:05:05
    the spread between four five versus six
  • 00:05:07
    bedrooms interestingly in the pool
  • 00:05:11
    category not as many are six-bedroom
  • 00:05:13
    houses but I think I did filter out
  • 00:05:15
    places with a ton of bathrooms that
  • 00:05:17
    might be the reason further down we have
  • 00:05:19
    a supply demand graph and it shows how
  • 00:05:21
    many listing days were booked and the
  • 00:05:23
    number of booked listings it does look
  • 00:05:25
    like the pool demand has gone up but the
  • 00:05:28
    supply has also gone up for all we can
  • 00:05:30
    tell supply and demand has kind of
  • 00:05:33
    matched so it's interesting but nothing
  • 00:05:34
    to conclude yet now this one I think is
  • 00:05:37
    really important to look at when are the
  • 00:05:39
    future reservations being booked and
  • 00:05:42
    ideally I would like to see a clear
  • 00:05:44
    indication that having a pool means you
  • 00:05:47
    get booked out sooner by more guests and
  • 00:05:51
    it's not that obvious to me remember
  • 00:05:54
    it's 33 35 listings versus 36 listings
  • 00:05:57
    so the numbers the nominal numbers are
  • 00:05:59
    very similar and looking at for example
  • 00:06:03
    christmas-ish week about 20 listings of
  • 00:06:06
    each have been booked and it's a very
  • 00:06:08
    similar percentage same for kind of
  • 00:06:10
    looking towards Spring break it is not
  • 00:06:13
    clear and convincing that having a pool
  • 00:06:16
    gives you earlier bookings or gives you
  • 00:06:19
    a higher guaranteed occupancy booked
  • 00:06:22
    farther out if that makes any sense
  • 00:06:24
    moving on to kind of the revenue
  • 00:06:26
    generated by the listings on average per
  • 00:06:30
    month I'd say the nopool listings range
  • 00:06:33
    from like a low end of 5,000 in the
  • 00:06:36
    month to upwards of 10 11,000 per month
  • 00:06:40
    that is fairly consistent with my
  • 00:06:42
    experience versus it is definitely
  • 00:06:44
    higher for the pool side having higher
  • 00:06:47
    revenues per month kind of throughout
  • 00:06:49
    the whole year this next graph is
  • 00:06:51
    splitting it up by different bedrooms
  • 00:06:52
    how much revenue did each listing earn
  • 00:06:55
    by bedroom as you can see the four to
  • 00:06:57
    five bedroom lines the orange and
  • 00:07:00
    purplish ones they've kind of merged
  • 00:07:02
    into the same thing this is definitely
  • 00:07:04
    different than when I first started out
  • 00:07:06
    looking through this just helps me
  • 00:07:08
    understand if the averages were pulled
  • 00:07:09
    up by the six-bedroom houses or pulled
  • 00:07:12
    down by the four-bedroom houses but this
  • 00:07:13
    doesn't seem to be that much of a case
  • 00:07:15
    in this next graph we're looking at the
  • 00:07:17
    distribution of listing Revenue so
  • 00:07:19
    comparing the top 10% versus the bottom
  • 00:07:21
    10% and everything in between looking at
  • 00:07:24
    the nopool side my experience has been
  • 00:07:27
    very similar to the pink line kind of in
  • 00:07:29
    the top 75th percentile it really ranges
  • 00:07:33
    from the bottom to the top how much you
  • 00:07:35
    can make a month average daily rate
  • 00:07:38
    seems to be consistent throughout the
  • 00:07:40
    years and matches with how the revenue
  • 00:07:42
    fluctuates by month so nothing too
  • 00:07:44
    exciting what was the average daily rate
  • 00:07:46
    by bedroom again I think it's promising
  • 00:07:49
    to see a clear increase if I were to go
  • 00:07:52
    from a five-bedroom no pool to a five
  • 00:07:55
    bedroom with a pool comparing these two
  • 00:07:58
    graphs the next one I like to look at is
  • 00:08:00
    what are guests willing to pay for
  • 00:08:02
    future stays cuz so far the data kind of
  • 00:08:05
    looks backwards whereas this one kind of
  • 00:08:07
    looks forwards and it is actually very
  • 00:08:11
    interesting cuz I'm looking at the
  • 00:08:12
    spring breakish time in March on the
  • 00:08:15
    pool side guests are willing to pay like
  • 00:08:18
    $11,000 or so versus actually not really
  • 00:08:22
    they're both kind of around the
  • 00:08:24
    $800 range with a couple higher spikes
  • 00:08:28
    on the pool side I guess that's really
  • 00:08:30
    hard to tell if that's an anomaly for
  • 00:08:32
    one special super awesome listing versus
  • 00:08:35
    is this the average because if you can
  • 00:08:36
    look at the purple bar it's quite low
  • 00:08:38
    it's not representative of that many
  • 00:08:41
    listings and it's also interesting to
  • 00:08:43
    see the purple bars are actually lower
  • 00:08:45
    on the pool side meaning that there
  • 00:08:47
    aren't as many booked listings for
  • 00:08:50
    spring break week versus the no pool
  • 00:08:53
    side I don't really know what to think
  • 00:08:55
    of this it's not clear and convincing
  • 00:08:57
    here that the pool is help helping
  • 00:08:59
    future revenue and I worry this ties
  • 00:09:02
    into the increase in Supply but more to
  • 00:09:04
    look into I think revpar is the revenue
  • 00:09:07
    per available night which is another
  • 00:09:09
    metric you can look at I have found the
  • 00:09:11
    pattern to be pretty consistent with
  • 00:09:13
    just the revenue throughout each month
  • 00:09:14
    now the next thing I want to look at is
  • 00:09:16
    this calendar at the end it's kind of
  • 00:09:18
    like a heat map the darker the blue the
  • 00:09:21
    more popular and booked and more Revenue
  • 00:09:24
    generating those weeks are and comparing
  • 00:09:27
    the two graphs there is a little bit of
  • 00:09:30
    variability July seems to be a hot
  • 00:09:33
    season as does kind of the winter
  • 00:09:36
    holidays the pool listings might be
  • 00:09:38
    doing better during October but March or
  • 00:09:41
    spring break wise they're about the same
  • 00:09:43
    the summer looks about the same overall
  • 00:09:45
    this tells me the pattern is similar all
  • 00:09:47
    right and then how far in advance are
  • 00:09:49
    guest booking just comparing the two
  • 00:09:52
    graphs there are still a lot of last
  • 00:09:55
    minute bookings which I don't love for
  • 00:09:57
    my sanity but that's okay at the end of
  • 00:09:58
    the side by- side comparison to me it
  • 00:10:01
    looks like listings with a pool does in
  • 00:10:03
    fact generate more Revenue have higher
  • 00:10:05
    occupancy higher average daily rates the
  • 00:10:07
    pattern of seasonality might not be all
  • 00:10:09
    that different it might not mean people
  • 00:10:11
    are booking more in advance but overall
  • 00:10:13
    it does seem to be making more money
  • 00:10:15
    because the amenity in question does
  • 00:10:17
    seem to correlate with a higher revenue
  • 00:10:19
    generated it makes sense to move on to
  • 00:10:21
    the next step which is a deep dive into
  • 00:10:23
    each individual listing the objective
  • 00:10:25
    here is to go through each listing look
  • 00:10:27
    at all the pictures all the information
  • 00:10:30
    how they are pacing for future bookings
  • 00:10:32
    what rates they are charging the quality
  • 00:10:34
    of their meni quality of their pictures
  • 00:10:35
    the reviews that they have basically
  • 00:10:37
    evaluate all the listings and find out
  • 00:10:39
    which ones are most comparable to yours
  • 00:10:42
    one way to quickly do that is to use the
  • 00:10:45
    export tool if you go back to the main
  • 00:10:48
    US market page there is a little icon up
  • 00:10:52
    here where you can click and get the
  • 00:10:55
    listing in a table format and you can
  • 00:10:57
    use the export function to generate a
  • 00:10:59
    spreadsheet that you can download I like
  • 00:11:01
    to use this as a starting point and then
  • 00:11:03
    create my own spreadsheet and I
  • 00:11:05
    recommend having the link so you can
  • 00:11:06
    have a future reference information on
  • 00:11:09
    the Bed Bath and number of guests the
  • 00:11:11
    revenue occupancy and average daily rate
  • 00:11:13
    kind of data and then I also put my
  • 00:11:15
    observations in pluses and minuses
  • 00:11:18
    compared to my property so pluses could
  • 00:11:20
    be if they are a better location if they
  • 00:11:23
    can house more people if they have an
  • 00:11:24
    extra bathroom if they are five stars on
  • 00:11:27
    300 reviews then that's yeah obviously
  • 00:11:30
    better than what I have or they can be
  • 00:11:33
    minuses like they are even farther away
  • 00:11:35
    from the beach or they are smaller or
  • 00:11:38
    the Interiors look dated or the pictures
  • 00:11:40
    are bad you get the gist as I go through
  • 00:11:42
    listing by listing I also try to clean
  • 00:11:44
    up the data a little bit so occasionally
  • 00:11:46
    there would be listings that are no
  • 00:11:48
    longer listed like this one you click on
  • 00:11:50
    the link on Airbnb it directs you just
  • 00:11:53
    to the Airbnb main page that might be
  • 00:11:56
    because they have closed up the listing
  • 00:11:58
    they sold the place or or they are I
  • 00:11:59
    don't know shutting it down and
  • 00:12:00
    relisting it I've seen people do that
  • 00:12:02
    sometimes if I click on the vbo link and
  • 00:12:04
    the same thing happens I'm pretty
  • 00:12:06
    confident that this listing is no longer
  • 00:12:09
    and I'm just going to ignore it I also
  • 00:12:11
    take out any duplicates it's not common
  • 00:12:13
    but sometimes the arbnb and vbo ones are
  • 00:12:16
    not listed together as one thing on
  • 00:12:18
    airdna dashboard so if I identify that I
  • 00:12:21
    just combine the information as I go
  • 00:12:23
    through the listing I click into the
  • 00:12:25
    actual Airbnb listing I look at their
  • 00:12:27
    pictures their interior design what kind
  • 00:12:30
    of amenities they offer so this one has
  • 00:12:32
    a pool it's actually a pretty small pool
  • 00:12:35
    it's a tiny little rectangle but they
  • 00:12:37
    also have a botchy ball situation going
  • 00:12:39
    on which looks really fun they are
  • 00:12:41
    listed as a guest favorite for having
  • 00:12:44
    121 reviews and 4.93 stars they are
  • 00:12:47
    managed by a professional property
  • 00:12:49
    management company and it looks like
  • 00:12:52
    their future dates are booked like a
  • 00:12:54
    healthy amount of bookings for future
  • 00:12:56
    dates location wise they're a little
  • 00:12:58
    farther away from from the beach than
  • 00:13:00
    where we are but they're also close to a
  • 00:13:02
    nice park so I think we'll call the
  • 00:13:04
    location kind of a wash all of these
  • 00:13:06
    observations I would categorize as what
  • 00:13:09
    bonus points they have and what minus
  • 00:13:10
    points they have on my listing and as I
  • 00:13:13
    go along I will group together all the
  • 00:13:14
    ones that are closest to mine in in a
  • 00:13:17
    comps kind of group and then everything
  • 00:13:19
    else I will still keep the data but kind
  • 00:13:21
    of disregard them for most of my
  • 00:13:23
    analyses the other thing you might have
  • 00:13:25
    to clean up a little bit as you're going
  • 00:13:26
    through the data is sometimes a
  • 00:13:29
    amenities like pools or Games Rooms or
  • 00:13:31
    whatever amenity you're looking at if
  • 00:13:33
    the listing itself didn't check them
  • 00:13:35
    properly on the listing website so like
  • 00:13:38
    on Airbnb they did not check the pool
  • 00:13:40
    button then obviously the data might
  • 00:13:41
    transfer incorrectly into air DNA and so
  • 00:13:44
    they might be miscategorized as a pool
  • 00:13:47
    house but they don't actually have a
  • 00:13:48
    pool it happened to a couple listings so
  • 00:13:51
    I kind of reverse them and put them into
  • 00:13:53
    the right places there's a little bit of
  • 00:13:54
    data cleanup that is required in this
  • 00:13:56
    step studying your competitor's future
  • 00:13:58
    calendar ERS and future bookings is
  • 00:14:00
    really important because it shows you if
  • 00:14:03
    like I know which weekends I'm booked
  • 00:14:05
    and which weekends I'm not and so if a
  • 00:14:08
    competitor has booked weekends on my
  • 00:14:10
    open weekends it really means at some
  • 00:14:13
    point someone searched for staying there
  • 00:14:16
    in this market in that weekend and they
  • 00:14:18
    chose this listing over mine and overall
  • 00:14:21
    I think it helps me gauge where I stand
  • 00:14:23
    in terms of like the percentile within
  • 00:14:26
    the market and I think it's really
  • 00:14:27
    important to have some sense of within
  • 00:14:29
    the pool group where I would be and this
  • 00:14:32
    is important because you've seen how far
  • 00:14:34
    the spread can be top 10% versus the
  • 00:14:37
    bottom 10% make a huge difference in
  • 00:14:39
    Revenue overall I found this data on
  • 00:14:42
    airdna to be pretty reliable it skews I
  • 00:14:44
    think just 3 to 5% underestimated just
  • 00:14:47
    based on my own listing comparing to
  • 00:14:50
    what it guesses I make but I think
  • 00:14:52
    that's a reasonable margin of error I
  • 00:14:54
    know this step is super tedious you can
  • 00:14:56
    probably hire an assistant to help you
  • 00:14:57
    with this step as long as you know how
  • 00:14:59
    to give clear instructions or you can
  • 00:15:00
    send them this video there you go moving
  • 00:15:02
    on to step five I think we're ready to
  • 00:15:04
    project the revenue with versus without
  • 00:15:06
    the pool at this point I have two
  • 00:15:08
    spreadsheets one for with pool one for
  • 00:15:10
    without with the data cleaned up and
  • 00:15:12
    trimmed down to just the comparables I
  • 00:15:14
    pull together the mean revenue and also
  • 00:15:17
    the median Revenue occupancy average
  • 00:15:19
    daily rate as well as the high and low
  • 00:15:21
    end of the ranges for not having a pool
  • 00:15:24
    AKA as is the most comparable listings
  • 00:15:27
    are actually making 80 to 85k for
  • 00:15:30
    Revenue last year we've been occupying
  • 00:15:32
    kind of the upper end of this nopol
  • 00:15:34
    category making around 100,000 in
  • 00:15:37
    revenue and kind of just quick glance at
  • 00:15:39
    these numbers only seven listings in
  • 00:15:41
    this area with no pool made more and
  • 00:15:44
    that's consistent with my rough estimate
  • 00:15:46
    of kind of being in that top quarter of
  • 00:15:48
    that market with the pool we could have
  • 00:15:51
    been making maybe $140,000 in Revenue I
  • 00:15:54
    think in this table the revenue is
  • 00:15:57
    slightly lower than it should be because
  • 00:15:59
    the limitation is some of these listings
  • 00:16:01
    are new so they don't have a full Year's
  • 00:16:03
    worth of data and that's kind of pulling
  • 00:16:05
    the averages down if I look mainly at
  • 00:16:07
    the average daily rate multiply it by
  • 00:16:09
    the occupancy I get closer to maybe
  • 00:16:12
    140,000 and the best case scenario if we
  • 00:16:15
    extrapolate how we are currently above
  • 00:16:18
    average in the no pool situation if we
  • 00:16:20
    add a pool we would still be above
  • 00:16:22
    average then maybe we could get closer
  • 00:16:25
    to
  • 00:16:26
    180,000 I don't really think that's fair
  • 00:16:28
    generally the pool houses seem all very
  • 00:16:31
    professionally managed and
  • 00:16:32
    wellmaintained so I think in comparison
  • 00:16:34
    we might just be kind of in the middle
  • 00:16:36
    the worst case scenario for some of
  • 00:16:38
    these places I don't know why I think
  • 00:16:40
    they look just fine but it could be
  • 00:16:42
    they're on the algorithm's bad side or
  • 00:16:45
    they have some pricing errors getting
  • 00:16:46
    too many like one or two night weekends
  • 00:16:49
    based on those worse off listings for
  • 00:16:51
    some reason the revenue I'm projecting
  • 00:16:53
    could be as low as $100,000 and that
  • 00:16:56
    would be no change than what we already
  • 00:16:58
    make another confounding factor is that
  • 00:17:00
    a lot of these pool properties have an
  • 00:17:02
    additional amenity like mini golf or
  • 00:17:04
    botch ball so it's kind of hard and
  • 00:17:07
    unfair to say that this difference in
  • 00:17:09
    revenue is all due to the pool I'll
  • 00:17:11
    never know exactly how much each thing
  • 00:17:13
    contributes just based on intuition the
  • 00:17:15
    pool is more important but I suppose
  • 00:17:16
    it's also a limitation that I don't have
  • 00:17:18
    a perfect comparative group with just a
  • 00:17:20
    pool added no mini golf no nothing else
  • 00:17:23
    overall all that to say if the current
  • 00:17:25
    Revenue Trends continue which is a big
  • 00:17:28
    if and we'll talk more about that I can
  • 00:17:29
    expect to make an additional $40,000 per
  • 00:17:32
    year in Revenue by having a pool which
  • 00:17:35
    is pretty good so that leads me to the
  • 00:17:37
    next step step number six gathering
  • 00:17:39
    information on the cost both the initial
  • 00:17:42
    cost for starting up and the maintenance
  • 00:17:44
    cost for ongoing pool maintenance in our
  • 00:17:47
    most recent visit to the beach house we
  • 00:17:48
    met with a pool contractor to get some
  • 00:17:50
    more information and just get some
  • 00:17:52
    questions answered I still have the
  • 00:17:54
    actual piece of paper it says
  • 00:17:56
    $551,000 obviously this was their
  • 00:17:58
    special pricing but either way 60,000
  • 00:18:00
    that was less than what I thought a pool
  • 00:18:02
    would cost I'm going to guess it's
  • 00:18:04
    likely a bit more just the nature with
  • 00:18:06
    how these projects go let's say it's
  • 00:18:09
    $80,000 pool construction can be paid
  • 00:18:12
    for outright by cash or they can be
  • 00:18:14
    financed just for easy math I'm going to
  • 00:18:16
    assume we're paying cash up front when
  • 00:18:18
    we're closer to that decision point we
  • 00:18:20
    can play with different numbers on how
  • 00:18:21
    to finance it and this and that but I
  • 00:18:23
    need this to be a good decision either
  • 00:18:25
    way even if we just use cash up front
  • 00:18:28
    for maintenance potential repairs pool
  • 00:18:30
    heat and an increase of Home Insurance
  • 00:18:33
    I'm estimating $6,000 for the year from
  • 00:18:36
    what I can tell it could be less it
  • 00:18:37
    could be more I was hoping to use a more
  • 00:18:39
    conservative estimate just in case there
  • 00:18:42
    are more surprises which I I mean I know
  • 00:18:44
    there will be more surprises because
  • 00:18:45
    this is a new thing that we're doing if
  • 00:18:47
    you have a pool in Florida or anywhere
  • 00:18:49
    in the southeast of us please let me
  • 00:18:51
    know your experience I'd love to hear
  • 00:18:53
    what you liked and didn't like any
  • 00:18:55
    surprises you had that would really help
  • 00:18:57
    me out and then for downtime I'm not
  • 00:18:59
    sure we really need to completely close
  • 00:19:01
    it and stop hosting for a couple months
  • 00:19:03
    versus could we advertise that yeah
  • 00:19:06
    there's construction going on here's a
  • 00:19:07
    super reduced rate I'm kind of leaning
  • 00:19:09
    towards the former because who wants to
  • 00:19:11
    stay at a house with construction going
  • 00:19:12
    on assuming 12 weeks of no revenue and
  • 00:19:16
    I'm picking the slowest months roughly
  • 00:19:18
    I'm going to be missing out on $220,000
  • 00:19:21
    of Revenue altogether $220,000 of loss
  • 00:19:24
    Revenue plus 80,000 of the pool
  • 00:19:26
    construction itself that's $100,000 in
  • 00:19:29
    upfront investment with all this
  • 00:19:31
    information you are now ready for step
  • 00:19:32
    number seven which is calculating the RO
  • 00:19:35
    or return on investment in the best case
  • 00:19:37
    scenario with the $80,000 extra in
  • 00:19:40
    Revenue per year taking out maintenance
  • 00:19:42
    expenses this is an additional $73,000
  • 00:19:45
    of profit per year as a result of
  • 00:19:48
    $100,000 of investment so a 73% return
  • 00:19:52
    in the worst case scenario zero increase
  • 00:19:54
    in Revenue but additional expenses of
  • 00:19:57
    6,000 per year this one would be a loss
  • 00:20:00
    the more likely case of maybe 140,000 of
  • 00:20:04
    Revenue total per year minus expenses
  • 00:20:06
    this would give us an additional
  • 00:20:08
    $33,000 of profit per year on 100K
  • 00:20:11
    investment this is still 34% of return
  • 00:20:14
    which is pretty good it would take
  • 00:20:16
    altogether about 3 years to fully
  • 00:20:18
    recover the cost not included in this
  • 00:20:20
    Roi is the change in home equity
  • 00:20:23
    theoretically the home value should go
  • 00:20:25
    up after we add a pool the numbers I see
  • 00:20:27
    are kind of all over the place I'm sure
  • 00:20:29
    it depends on the market I've seen
  • 00:20:30
    anything from 5 to 8% of the home value
  • 00:20:34
    itself to like 50% of the pool cost also
  • 00:20:37
    not included are any tax implications
  • 00:20:39
    which I think are generally positive
  • 00:20:41
    both are going to be very helpful in
  • 00:20:43
    recovering that initial sunk cost but
  • 00:20:45
    I'd like the pool decision to be a
  • 00:20:47
    standalone good decision even without
  • 00:20:49
    additional home equity which obviously
  • 00:20:51
    can fluctuate based on how the market is
  • 00:20:53
    doing in terms of housing prices and
  • 00:20:55
    taxes because that's like the last thing
  • 00:20:57
    to consider with all of this information
  • 00:20:59
    and discussion step eight what is the
  • 00:21:02
    final decision this is a really tough
  • 00:21:04
    one I think on paper just looking at
  • 00:21:06
    this 30ish to 50ish per return that's
  • 00:21:10
    excellent and I feel pretty confident in
  • 00:21:12
    how I looked at the listings my
  • 00:21:13
    comparables My overall methodology on
  • 00:21:16
    how I arrived on that number there's
  • 00:21:17
    even additional upside that I haven't
  • 00:21:19
    included like the home equity and taxes
  • 00:21:21
    considering what I could be doing with
  • 00:21:23
    my money to invest in all the other
  • 00:21:25
    possibilities including buying another
  • 00:21:27
    short-term rental
  • 00:21:29
    it's hard to beat 30 to 50% returns
  • 00:21:31
    Playing devil's advocate though there
  • 00:21:33
    are a few reasons not to add the pool
  • 00:21:35
    the first one is a math one yeah 30 to
  • 00:21:38
    50% return sounds amazing but you can
  • 00:21:40
    also phrase it as you need at least 2
  • 00:21:43
    years to recover your initial cost what
  • 00:21:46
    if I happen to want to sell within those
  • 00:21:48
    2 or three years will my partners
  • 00:21:50
    because this was a partnership will they
  • 00:21:52
    or I need the liquidity for some reason
  • 00:21:55
    do I accept the risk of being locked in
  • 00:21:57
    I guess technically I could sell anytime
  • 00:21:59
    it's not really locked in I guess the
  • 00:22:01
    right way to say it is do I accept
  • 00:22:03
    potentially just accepting a loss if I
  • 00:22:06
    were to sell sooner the second thing to
  • 00:22:08
    think about here is the learning curve
  • 00:22:10
    of adding a new amenity and all the
  • 00:22:12
    maintenance that goes with it and all
  • 00:22:14
    the potential surprises which I know
  • 00:22:16
    there will be a bunch I feel like I'm
  • 00:22:18
    finally at a steady state for learning
  • 00:22:20
    the operations of this particular house
  • 00:22:22
    and adding an amenity kind of restarts
  • 00:22:24
    that whole process it's not a good
  • 00:22:26
    enough reason to say no just something
  • 00:22:28
    to kind of mentally prepare for and
  • 00:22:30
    think about if that's a commitment I
  • 00:22:32
    want to make and then lastly this is a
  • 00:22:33
    very important one what I projected is
  • 00:22:36
    based on past performance and you know
  • 00:22:39
    what every investment disclaimer says
  • 00:22:41
    past performance does not guarantee
  • 00:22:43
    future results forget the pool for a
  • 00:22:45
    second take broadly the four to five
  • 00:22:48
    bedroom houses when I first started and
  • 00:22:50
    was studying the market the five bedroom
  • 00:22:53
    houses made significantly more in
  • 00:22:54
    Revenue while kind of costing the same
  • 00:22:56
    to purchase on the market over time this
  • 00:22:58
    difference in Revenue has kind of
  • 00:23:00
    diminished and those lines have merged
  • 00:23:02
    to the point where four or five bedroom
  • 00:23:04
    houses make roughly the same it could be
  • 00:23:07
    because the supply has gone up for five
  • 00:23:10
    bedroom houses or maybe more people have
  • 00:23:12
    noticed the same thing that I've noticed
  • 00:23:14
    Revenue declines as the supply goes up
  • 00:23:16
    who's to say this can't happen to pool
  • 00:23:17
    houses if it does then the duration it
  • 00:23:20
    will take to recover that sun cost will
  • 00:23:22
    be even longer I see some potential
  • 00:23:25
    signs of this the DraStic increase in
  • 00:23:27
    Supply in pool house houses over the
  • 00:23:29
    past few months past year and also in
  • 00:23:31
    the graphs that looked ahead to Future
  • 00:23:33
    bookings for the future 180 days the
  • 00:23:36
    homes with pools didn't necessarily
  • 00:23:38
    command that much more in terms of
  • 00:23:40
    occupancy yes the rates are a little bit
  • 00:23:42
    higher but the occupancy seems about the
  • 00:23:45
    same it would seem to me that there are
  • 00:23:47
    people that would be happy to pay for a
  • 00:23:49
    kind of expensive still very luxurious
  • 00:23:52
    house without the pool when it meant
  • 00:23:55
    they didn't pay a premium just for pool
  • 00:23:57
    access when they're already so close to
  • 00:23:59
    the beach this makes sense to me as a
  • 00:24:02
    traveler but I don't know how big a
  • 00:24:04
    group this is and whether this is enough
  • 00:24:07
    in the future I think all this kind of
  • 00:24:09
    goes into predicting the future which
  • 00:24:11
    obviously is impossible to do so far
  • 00:24:13
    though just based on my observations the
  • 00:24:15
    higher end of travel like several
  • 00:24:17
    thousand dollar worth of bookings for a
  • 00:24:19
    weekend at a beach house kind of travel
  • 00:24:21
    that has been somewhat immune to
  • 00:24:23
    economic changes in recent times and so
  • 00:24:27
    whether this continues to the Future
  • 00:24:29
    it's hard to say but at least it looks
  • 00:24:32
    promising my plan is to move forward
  • 00:24:34
    with getting a survey this would be a
  • 00:24:36
    small inexpensive first step to take
  • 00:24:38
    because in my city there are limits to
  • 00:24:41
    what size pool you can have based on the
  • 00:24:43
    lot size that you have for your house in
  • 00:24:45
    the meantime I'll also a talk to my
  • 00:24:47
    partners to see what they think of this
  • 00:24:49
    plan I'll show them all the data and see
  • 00:24:51
    what feedback they have see if this
  • 00:24:53
    commitment to adding a pool would be
  • 00:24:55
    consistent with their goals and then B I
  • 00:24:57
    want to talk to people in the area who
  • 00:24:59
    have pools I've never had a pool in my
  • 00:25:01
    house I just don't really know what to
  • 00:25:02
    expect and there's only so much you can
  • 00:25:04
    read online I made the mistake of going
  • 00:25:06
    to a Reddit Forum to see what people
  • 00:25:08
    have complained about for pools and I
  • 00:25:10
    saw some horror stories of like dead
  • 00:25:12
    animals that fall into the pool and they
  • 00:25:14
    get trapped and that is just horrifying
  • 00:25:17
    and then C because the most optimal time
  • 00:25:19
    to install the pool would be like August
  • 00:25:22
    is anyway I have time so the last thing
  • 00:25:25
    that I want to do in the meantime is to
  • 00:25:27
    continue obs observing this Market
  • 00:25:29
    dashboard probably check in like say
  • 00:25:31
    around February March to see if this
  • 00:25:34
    data has changed over time I already
  • 00:25:36
    have my list of comps it would be really
  • 00:25:38
    easy and quick to just go through the
  • 00:25:40
    same process again but abbreviated and
  • 00:25:43
    see if my worries about the increase in
  • 00:25:46
    Supply and the decrease in Revenue
  • 00:25:48
    whether that is actually happening with
  • 00:25:51
    pool properties and also by then we'll
  • 00:25:53
    have a clearer outlook on the general
  • 00:25:55
    economy anything that's changing with
  • 00:25:57
    taxes and rules all the things this was
  • 00:25:59
    such a long and nerdy video thank you so
  • 00:26:02
    much for kind of talking it out with me
  • 00:26:04
    and thank you to airdna for sponsoring
  • 00:26:05
    this video I hope you found this useful
  • 00:26:07
    or at least entertaining and I will see
  • 00:26:10
    you again next time bye
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