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hello everybody happy 2025 wherever you
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are it is January the 6th it is snowing
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here in New York it is our first full
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week back in the office and our minds
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are naturally turning to whatever is
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coming in the year ahead now as we all
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know there is a lot going on in the
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world from ongoing Wars to technological
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uncertainty to the ever shifting
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landscape of global political landscape
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I am looking at you just Trudeau who
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resigned from the prime ministership
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just today it is a wild world out there
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risk it seems is everywhere so who
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better to help us understand the nature
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of those risks and what we might do
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about them than president of Eurasia
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group and GZ media Ian brema joining us
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now hi Ian happy New Year Helen Happy
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New Year to you so you have just
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published your annual list of top risks
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of 2025 a hotly anticipated report that
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provides the worst bedtime reading known
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to man and we are going to go through
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some of the risks that you have
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identified now the first one the top top
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risk if you will is called the g0o wins
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and as I understand it the win that
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you're talking about here is actually a
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Global Leadership vacuum is is that
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right and why is this your number one
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risk this year it is I guess a lot of
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people would be wondering well shouldn't
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the United States and I mean president
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Trump coming in and he's very you know
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sort of unpredictable and he's going to
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break a lot of China including some
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literally uh isn't that you know the top
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risk not not at all actually he's the
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leading symptom and in many ways the top
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beneficiary of the g0o world and it's
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the global issue it's the fact that you
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have lots of global challenges lots of
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global opportunities but no Global
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Leadership the United States is by far
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the most powerful country in the world
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and it is not interested in providing
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collective security or promoting Global
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free trade architecture or promoting
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democracy or common values of rule of
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law it's much more transactional much
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more I'll get a deal with you and by the
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way I'm more powerful than you are so
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you're going to have to do much more of
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what I want in other words it's
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increasingly a much more Chinese
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perspective on how one engages in global
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Affairs or dare I say it's a Return To
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Rule of the Jungle to law of the Jungle
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and other countries are much weaker you
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already mentioned Justin Trudeau you
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could have easily mentioned uh soon to
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be ex-president Yun from South Korea
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working his way through impeachment
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getting confirmed by the Supreme Court
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constitutional Court there you could
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have mentioned the German government in
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disarray the French government um in
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disarray um go on and on countries
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around the world that are friends or
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adversaries of the United States are
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just in a weaker position and they are
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playing defense so they're not trying to
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say oh we'll be global leaders since
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you're not going to be we'll promote
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rule of law it's mostly can we stay out
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of the headlines and not get crosswise
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with either the Americans or the Chinese
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and so that reality that a g0o World
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Disorder a lack of Global Leadership
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that we've seen coming for 10 years but
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this year really is you know the the
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dominant theme for how geopolitics runs
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that is weaving its way through all of
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the risks that we see around the world
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whether it comes from the United States
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or from the US China relationship the US
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Mexico relationship it comes from
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ungoverned spaces you know Wars and
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power Vacuums in the Middle East in EUR
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Asia Europe all of that ultimately is
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coming from the g0 not a G7 not a G20
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win
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it all right so let's dive into the
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United States let's talk about what's
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going to happen and what is to come in
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the year ahead Trump is coming back into
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Power he is going to be a lot more
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organized he knows a lot more this time
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around than he did last time around so
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he actually features as the rule of dawn
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on your list of risks talk about that
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and talk about what we should be
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watching as we as we watch the new
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president come come into office well as
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I said it's a feature not a bug
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uh that president-elect Trump is
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unpredictable and his supporters will
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say that's how he you know keeps
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everyone guessing um and he gets things
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done as a consequence he's got much more
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Consolidated power today not only
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because his allies and his adversaries
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are weaker but also because he controls
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the Republican party doesn't need their
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cels like they did in 2017 they need his
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he's got a much more Consolidated
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Administration around him it doesn't
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have you know Mike Pence and and others
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like Mike Pompeo um who were you know
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sort of adults from the Republican
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establishment he has a group of people
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that have distinguished themselves with
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their complete loyalty to him so you
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know the founding fathers of the United
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States were worried about what would
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happen if you didn't have proper checks
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and balances on the executive If instead
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of rule of law you had rule of man well
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I mean increasing what you have is
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Donald Trump and what he decides and
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what he wants is what you're going to
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have to respond to and that's true
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domestically especially as he looks to
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politicize um the power Ministries in
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the US like the FBI the Department of
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Justice the IRS um in a way that he
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believes that they were weaponized
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against him by democrats and the
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so-called deep state to investigate him
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to arrest him you know to to throw him
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in jail uh as they want wanted to um
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he's now going to take that and and use
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that against his enemies but also
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internationally so this rule of dawn
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which is going to lead to a lot of wins
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for the United States in the early days
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it's not that Trump is going to fail
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everywhere he tries to implement policy
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but that uncertainty that
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unpredictability is of course an
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enormous risk for everyone else dealing
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with him around the world I mean just
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today you have the United Kingdom um in
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crisis domestically not because they're
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trying to figure out how do we respond
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to Elon Musk you know who is not only by
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far the wealthiest person in the world
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but also is the closest adviser spending
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the most time with Trump and so you know
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he's attacking uh the the British
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government directly and in their view
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putting members of their cabinet in
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personal Danger
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and they have no idea how to respond
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because if they hit Elon are they then
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hitting Trump too is is that going to
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lead to blowback from the United States
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this is an immediate crisis for them in
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an unprecedented way um since the United
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States has become uh the world's
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superpower that that's what we mean when
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we talk about the rule of dawn you said
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something really interesting in the
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report that I just want to get you to
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say more about which is that democracy
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itself will not be threatened the US is
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is not hungry there has been a lot of
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talk over the last 48 years about the
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state of democracy and about the imperal
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state of democracy so I'm really
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interested to hear that you don't
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actually think that this is under threat
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so just talk more about that well I I
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don't believe uh that the United States
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is on the precipice of dictatorship and
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I also continue to see significant
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resilience in institutions that can push
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back against Trump's successes I mean we
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saw that you know with the effort to
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appoint Matt Gates um as attorney
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general running the doj and you know
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within two weeks Trump backed off and he
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hasn't said anything about get S Trump
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is by the way incredibly impressive
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about going really hard in favor of
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someone and then throwing them
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completely under the bus when he
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realizes that he's lost that one just
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just bounces off of them right but it's
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not just that it's that you still have a
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professional military in the United
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States still have an independent
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Judiciary yes 63 conservative appointees
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but independent uh from the president
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from the executive and continues to act
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uh that way uh you you have a very very
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thin margin um in for republicans in the
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house um you also have more adults that
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are institutionalists in the Senate um
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and finally of course the US is a
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federal system uh with with Governors
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that matter and elections system that is
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Run state by state um and then in two
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years time you're going to have midterms
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and frankly it's more likely than not
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the Democrats will come back in the
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House of Representatives then so I I
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take very seriously the fact that the
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United States is becoming more
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structurally corrupt that the system is
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increasingly captured by a small number
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of incredibly wealthy and Powerful
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special interest that that does not
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reflect a representative democracy that
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that has been getting pretty bad since
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you and I have known each other hell and
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far worse than any other Advanced
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industrial democracy and it's getting
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worse still in the incoming Trump
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Administration but that is very
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difficult from saying very different
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from saying that the US democracy is
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about to fall apart or that uh Trump is
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going to be able to ensure that he can
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stay in power he would change the
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Constitution and be allowed to run at 82
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for a third term I think that this
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virally no chance uh that that could
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happen for example so there is a lot of
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uncertainty and instability coming from
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the institutional erosion that is
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affected by the Incredible strength of
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one man and those around him as
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president but that's very different from
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saying the Republic is facing
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existential danger the latter is not
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true I'm very glad to hear you say that
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okay let's talk about economics of
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course the state of the economy was a
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huge issue in the election and people
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really bought into the idea that Trump
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could bring about a healthy and strong
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American economy you have trumponomics
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on your list of risks so talk to us
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about whether you think people are
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buying it are you buying it what's going
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to happen with the economy coming
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up the Trump uh risk
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economically um comes from the fact that
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uh his impact uh of his policies on the
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US and global economy uh I believe is
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going to be significantly larger uh than
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uh what is presently priced in um and
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there are a couple of points here uh one
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is on tariffs um he he to the extent
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that he has an
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ideological um you know sort of poll uh
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it's really about the utility of tariffs
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as the principal policy tool for
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economic outcomes and National Security
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outcomes that he wants and again he has
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a team that believes that supports him
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and is very aligned to him We're clearly
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going to see that uh with us relations
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with China also appears on the list that
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that relationship which has been
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comparatively well managed in the last
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12 months even though there's no trust
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in it is likely to get it's likely to
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deteriorate significantly but also
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tariffs against other countries Friends
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of the United States where the US is
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running significant trade deficits much
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larg
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than in 2017 when Trump was President
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you would have seen in the Washington
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Post earlier today there was a leak that
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said oh he's only thinking about tariffs
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vers on friends in a few National
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Security areas he's going to back off
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the markets went up and Trump
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immediately put out a social media post
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saying absolutely not true um I'm tariff
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man I'm gonna do this so that's going to
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have a big impact on the global economy
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secondly he's very serious about getting
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illegal immigrants out he wants to
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deport them they're 15 to 20 million in
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the United States right now he's not
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going to get rid of 15 to 20 million but
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in his first year can he get rid of a
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million I think he can and over four
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years three to five million is very very
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plausible and and he was voted in and
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Harris and Biden earlier were voted out
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because in large part of not handling
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illegal immigration just as we've seen
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play out across all of Europe over the
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last decade you're seeing play out in
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the United States now I'm not saying
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that it's wrong for him to try to remove
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illegal immigrants from the United
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States I'm saying there's going to be an
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impact the impact is labor costs are
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going up these people are also consumers
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in the US economy not when they're not
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there anymore they're taxpayers Medicare
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Social Security not when they're not
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there anymore right so there's going to
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be a meaningful impact on inflation and
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a fiscal constraint that comes from
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Trump putting these policies in place
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and and legal workers are not going to
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fill that Gap so you've got two areas of
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of extraordinary priority for the Trump
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Administration that are not priced into
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the market that are going to slow growth
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you also have um of course Market
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positive things he'll do like he's going
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to continue to reduce regulation and I'm
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sure that will be beneficial to the
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financial sector and crypto and uh
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fossil fuel companies and others he's
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also intending to um roll over the
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2017 uh tax reductions on high net worth
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individuals uh and on corporations but
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the regulatory roll back most of that
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loow hanging fruit was already picked in
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his first term and it's an extension of
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the tax cuts it's not a further
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reduction me meanwhile um the
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macroeconomic environment is worse than
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it was before um companies are trading
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at a much higher multiple um you've got
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higher inflation you've got higher debt
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levels it's much more challenging for
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Trump to move the needle so what I'm
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saying is that Trump onomics actually is
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likely to be a much more significant
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downside risk this time around precisely
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because he's going to implement the
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policies he wants to he will be success
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uccessful politically and and then
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people people do not expect this right
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now I want to stick with immigration for
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a moment I think one of the lasting
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images that came out of the last
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presidency was of separated families on
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the southern border of the United States
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do do you think that we're going to see
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this type of visual again and how do you
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think he'll deal with that if we do and
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do you think that we'll see the same
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type of response to that that we saw in
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that first term the in the first term um
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the Mexican uh president Lopez oor uh
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basically cried Uncle uh it was one of
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Trump's successes uh The Mexican
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government was told that if you don't
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tighten the southern border of Mexico
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because so many of the people that come
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to the United States over the southern
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border are come coming from other
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countries across Central and Latin
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America um that you they're going to get
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hit by much harder tariffs and not only
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did The Mexican government uh actually
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take that seriously and so the numbers
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came down but they ultimately uh had a
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success um in the signing
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usmca uh replacing NAFTA so Mexico I
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would argue in Trump's first term was
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pretty positive um this time around
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Trump has bigger problems with Mexico
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than he did last time around um it's not
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just um about uh illegal immigrants
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though that's one big part of it it's
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also the fenel crisis um it's a much
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bigger trade deficit and it's also
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Chinese Goods that are coming through
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Mexico into the United States he wants
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to address all four of those he does not
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have a single person very strong running
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point on the relationship like he did
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with Robert lighthiser and Jared Kushner
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uh facilitating the conversations behind
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the scenes that's not the case this time
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around there's a lot of cooks in that
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relationship also Trump had a good
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relationship with Lopez oor Lopez oor is
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kind of a far-left
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populist ID logically very different
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from Trump but you know kind of
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grandiose charismatic roughly similar
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age and they liked each other they got
00:17:07
along really well Claudia shine Bal I
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find very impressive but Helen she's a
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woman she's a PhD environmental
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scientist who got her degree at Berkeley
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I mean you couldn't find you couldn't
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dream up a demographic that would be
00:17:24
more problematic in a personal
00:17:25
relationship with Trump and so it's
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going to be hard for her to engage with
00:17:31
him and get wins so I I I think that in
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the first year and let's also keep in
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mind this is on the back of a Mexican
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government that has had their peso get
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hammered uh for some of the
00:17:45
Constitutional changes they're making
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like judicial reform in particular some
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social reforms as well the markets hate
00:17:51
so the pesos just gotten destroyed um
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they have very little margin for error
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um in this first year year of trump in
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the relationship with the us so I think
00:18:02
you know over four years us Mexico
00:18:04
relations will be just fine but I think
00:18:07
that in the first months of trump coming
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in uh it's going to be very very choppy
00:18:13
Waters
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indeed what advice do you have for
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Claudia Shin bam who clearly she can't
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change the fact that she's a woman she
00:18:20
can't change her educational background
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or anything about her she has a huge
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mandate from the Mexican population like
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what should she do to deal with Trump
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well give Trump wins early Mexico truly
00:18:34
the Europeans can work together they're
00:18:36
a large Marketplace they do business
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with lots of people around the world
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Mexico uh is only doing business with
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the United States they are fully
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integrated into the US supply chain they
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have no other place to go it would be
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like me advising the president of Lao
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how to deal with xiin ping you don't get
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to like hedge with the Americans or the
00:18:59
Indians you've got one bet so they know
00:19:01
that um I think a couple of things I
00:19:04
would advise first uh and by the way I
00:19:07
have advised um and and and I think her
00:19:10
cabinet is very competent they're very
00:19:13
technocratic um as opposed to the
00:19:15
broader Marina party which is very
00:19:17
popular but they're a new party and
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they've never they've never lost so
00:19:21
they're overconfident what they think
00:19:22
they can do it's going to be hard for
00:19:24
her and she knows she needs to kind of
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get the party and get members of
00:19:28
Congress under wraps and get her her
00:19:32
cabinet taking the lead on all of this
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the easiest thing for them to do is kick
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the Chinese out there are a lot of
00:19:39
places where you have Chinese parts that
00:19:41
are actually passing through by the way
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Chinese investment into Mexico it's not
00:19:46
creating Mexican jobs it's actually
00:19:48
really angering in the textiles for
00:19:51
example you've got a lot of small and
00:19:52
medium Enterprises these are relatively
00:19:54
poor and middle class Mexicans they're
00:19:56
losing jobs because Chinese goods are
00:19:58
coming in and undercutting them byd
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China set up shop and electric vehicles
00:20:03
they're doing assembly they're not doing
00:20:05
full manufacturing there very few jobs
00:20:08
working for byd um in Mexico it's not
00:20:11
like Ford it's not like GM so I I think
00:20:14
it would benefit her from hitting China
00:20:17
harder and earlier before her first
00:20:19
meeting one-on-one with Trump she's had
00:20:22
a phone call she hasn't gone to Mara
00:20:24
Lago that was wise get her ducks in a
00:20:26
row first that's what I would do I would
00:20:29
also work on getting a good relationship
00:20:32
with the incoming prime minister of
00:20:34
Canada likely to be Pierre PV as soon as
00:20:37
humanly possible because the Canadians
00:20:39
will throw Mexico under a bus when usmca
00:20:43
starts having negotiations Canadian
00:20:45
leaders on the conservative side have
00:20:47
made very clear hey we can have a good
00:20:49
relationship with Trump we don't need
00:20:51
Mexico right and NAFTA started off as a
00:20:54
bilateral agreement between the US and
00:20:56
Canada and it was only the US that said
00:20:58
no we want Mexico let's make it
00:21:00
trilateral they will try that again the
00:21:02
Mexicans need to nip that in the butt
00:21:05
and right now they really don't have a
00:21:08
relationship with the Canadians and
00:21:10
certainly not with the incoming
00:21:11
conservatives that is a high priority in
00:21:13
my view again that's something I have I
00:21:16
have directly advised the leadership of
00:21:19
Mexico all right let's stay um
00:21:22
International let's talk about Russia um
00:21:26
obviously the war with Ukraine has OCC
00:21:28
Ed the headlines for a couple of years
00:21:30
at this point you you seem to think that
00:21:32
the ceasefire is coming but Russia is
00:21:34
obviously still Rogue so talk to us
00:21:37
about what we should be watching what we
00:21:39
should be really paying attention to
00:21:40
from Vladimir Putin and from Russia yeah
00:21:42
Helen you and I first talked about this
00:21:45
right after the invasion um and we've
00:21:48
talked about it since uh back in January
00:21:51
last year's top risks report um we had
00:21:54
Russia Ukraine as our number three risk
00:21:58
and we said that Ukraine was uh going to
00:22:00
be partitioned which is not something I
00:22:02
want at all uh but it was inevitable and
00:22:06
now you've got just earlier today French
00:22:08
president macron saying that zalinski is
00:22:11
going to have to be realistic uh about
00:22:14
what he's prepared to give up from a
00:22:15
territorial perspective certainly that
00:22:17
is Trump's perspective um and the
00:22:19
ukrainians fully understand that they
00:22:22
can't continue to fight the war the way
00:22:24
they have um Russia also I mean you know
00:22:27
they've got North Korean troops helping
00:22:29
them now how much they're helping them
00:22:31
is open to question there a lot of them
00:22:32
getting killed um but they they could
00:22:35
use a breather um and a ceasefire and
00:22:37
Trump wants one and Trump has made very
00:22:39
clear that if the ukrainians don't
00:22:42
accept his deal he's going to cut off
00:22:44
support and if the Russians don't accept
00:22:46
his deal he's going to increase
00:22:48
sanctions dramatically so I do think
00:22:52
that over the course of the year we are
00:22:54
likely to get a ceasefire now 2 point
00:22:58
around that the first is before the
00:23:01
ceasefire is actually Inked there's a
00:23:04
lot of risk because the ukrainians are
00:23:07
desperate and they want to be in a
00:23:08
better position with more leverage so
00:23:10
that's why you've got a new offensive in
00:23:12
kers inside Russia by the ukrainians
00:23:15
which they can hardly afford right now
00:23:17
militarily they also are continuing to
00:23:20
use American Rockets like attacks to hit
00:23:24
Russian targets deeper into their
00:23:26
territory assassination attempt and the
00:23:28
rest Russia launching more missiles into
00:23:32
Kiev into other uh cities civilian
00:23:35
targets critical infrastructure energy
00:23:38
infrastructure and of course all sorts
00:23:40
of asymmetrical attacks against NATO
00:23:42
allies so that is going to get worse
00:23:45
before we have a ceasefire so there's a
00:23:47
lot of risk around that even once we
00:23:49
have a ceasefire that ceasefire is not a
00:23:52
negotiated settlement which means the
00:23:55
ukrainians are still arming up and
00:23:57
building up and the Russians are too and
00:23:59
the Europeans feel like that is a big
00:24:02
risk to them so I fully expect that
00:24:06
sanctions on Russia will stay in place I
00:24:09
I fully expect that the freezing of
00:24:12
hundreds of billions of Russian
00:24:14
Sovereign dollars uh assets euros and
00:24:18
the rest um will be used to rebuild
00:24:21
Ukraine and that's unacceptable to
00:24:24
Russia and they'll still be engaged in a
00:24:26
proxy war against fr line NATO States
00:24:29
like Poland and the bals and the nordics
00:24:32
um they'll still use telegram to pay off
00:24:35
locals to engage in arson attacks uh and
00:24:38
vandalism and even assassination
00:24:40
attempts so this is I mean Russia is the
00:24:43
most powerful Rogue state in the world
00:24:46
it is an ally of North Korea uh and Iran
00:24:51
these are chaos actors on the global
00:24:53
stage and they are absolutely producing
00:24:56
a lot of risk and instability
00:24:59
um Ukraine the war in Ukraine 3 years on
00:25:03
should be heading towards a ceasefire so
00:25:06
I think there will be less Ukraine in
00:25:07
the headlines once that ceasefire is in
00:25:11
place so let me just make sure that I'm
00:25:14
understanding something because in that
00:25:15
you describe Trump basically saying I
00:25:18
want to cease fire and so that's what
00:25:20
needs to happen doesn't that imply that
00:25:23
America still does have the power and
00:25:26
the sway and the influence that it once
00:25:28
had or how does this how does that
00:25:30
ladder back up to the idea of this being
00:25:31
a gzero world I I think that the United
00:25:34
States has an enormous amount of power
00:25:36
but the big difference is this is Trump
00:25:39
saying this unilaterally right I mean
00:25:42
he's the one that is deciding um that
00:25:45
there is going to be an outcome that he
00:25:48
wants um and it's not like he's
00:25:50
coordinating with NATO allies and saying
00:25:53
we all have to sit down and make sure
00:25:55
that we're Consolidated one of the
00:25:56
interesting things I mean Biden did do
00:25:58
that well in getting the ukrainians to
00:26:01
the negotiating table he failed at that
00:26:03
what Biden did well was ensuring that
00:26:06
NATO was in lock step on policy every
00:26:10
step of the way on sanctions on
00:26:14
armaments for the ukrainians on
00:26:16
intelligence sharing the rest uh Trump
00:26:18
is not going to do that Trump wants to
00:26:20
end Wars he wants to end wars in the
00:26:22
Middle East he wants to get the
00:26:23
Americans out he wants to end the war
00:26:25
between Russia Ukraine he wants to get
00:26:27
the Americans out um just like he did in
00:26:29
Afghanistan I mean Afghanistan reflects
00:26:31
a g0o now the United States I support
00:26:34
ending the war in Afghanistan not that
00:26:36
we care about what I want or don't want
00:26:39
I mean the Americans had spent over a
00:26:40
trillion dollars enormous numbers of
00:26:42
lives that were lost since the US has
00:26:44
left Afghanistan that hasn't happened
00:26:46
but there's a power vacuum in
00:26:48
Afghanistan it's not like anyone else
00:26:50
has come in to try to provide any level
00:26:53
of stability in that country and never
00:26:56
mind just for the Afghans themselves but
00:26:58
also exporting drugs and instability and
00:27:02
all the like that that is what we are
00:27:04
going to see coming from all over the
00:27:07
place as a consequence of the United
00:27:09
States that is saying not it you know
00:27:11
we're focused on ourselves and we're
00:27:13
going to get you know cut unilateral
00:27:15
deals and you know the Allies you're
00:27:17
gonna have to listen us I see so it's
00:27:20
the unilateral nature of this and it's
00:27:22
the kind of self-absorbed self-involved
00:27:25
self-facing nature of the of the power
00:27:28
that is different from that kind of
00:27:29
collaborative allies Allied axis that we
00:27:33
used to we used to know in years past
00:27:35
that's right the United States is not
00:27:37
becoming
00:27:39
isolationist the United States is
00:27:41
increasingly becoming transactional so
00:27:44
if you think about what American
00:27:45
exceptionalism was and frankly what
00:27:47
globalism was to a degree it was the
00:27:51
United States saying we support Global
00:27:54
rule of law multilateralism and all of
00:27:58
these institutions that we built up and
00:28:01
we want you to to actually abide by
00:28:05
those rules all of us together and by
00:28:07
the way China your dictatorship and your
00:28:11
not free market economy we're going to
00:28:13
bring you into our institutions and
00:28:15
we're going to expect that you're going
00:28:16
to be behaving by those rules too so we
00:28:18
want you to be responsible stakeholders
00:28:21
now that last bet didn't work the
00:28:23
Chinese got rich but they didn't become
00:28:27
responsible Stak holders they didn't
00:28:28
become Democratic they didn't become
00:28:29
free market they didn't support rule of
00:28:31
law what's really interesting is that
00:28:33
the United States has instead move
00:28:37
towards a more Chinese model in other
00:28:40
words the United States is increasingly
00:28:42
saying we don't care about these
00:28:45
multilateral institutions we're not
00:28:47
going to support the United Nations the
00:28:49
the the United States might well stop
00:28:51
paying its dues to the UN I mean
00:28:54
certainly on the back of Elise stefanic
00:28:56
um and the appointment of ambassador to
00:28:59
the United Nations that appears to be
00:29:01
the trajectory the Trump has said he
00:29:03
wants to pull out of the World Health
00:29:04
Organization um he's said you know Paris
00:29:07
climate Accord out again right I mean
00:29:10
the US is not interested in that the US
00:29:13
is interested in in focusing on its own
00:29:16
power its own priorities and other
00:29:18
countries have to like it or lump it uh
00:29:21
and so that's it's a radically different
00:29:24
environment than a us-led global order
00:29:27
that that is not there's no Global Order
00:29:29
that's being led by the US it's a us-led
00:29:32
us and and a China China and everybody
00:29:36
else trying to hope they don't have to
00:29:39
play sides you know and just on defense
00:29:42
everyone playing defense okay let's talk
00:29:44
about another geopolitical power that is
00:29:46
hugely important always and that is Iran
00:29:49
which in your view has gotten weaker
00:29:51
over the last year or so obviously we've
00:29:53
been seeing the war playing out in Gaza
00:29:55
we've been seeing um Hezbollah was um
00:29:58
has been weakened considerably in in
00:30:00
Lebanon but what do you make of what's
00:30:02
going on in Iran and what should be we
00:30:04
be watching for in terms of risks uh I
00:30:07
think Iran this year has become the most
00:30:10
important Middle East risk as opposed to
00:30:13
last year when we were focused on Gaza
00:30:15
and the expansion of that war West Bank
00:30:19
Lebanon Hezbollah um those Wars are
00:30:22
going to be winding down um and Trump
00:30:25
wants them uh to wind down and frankly
00:30:28
the Israelis have accomplished most uh
00:30:30
of what they have wanted to accomplish
00:30:32
in them and they're the ones that are
00:30:34
determining dictating how the war is
00:30:36
being fought the wars are being fought
00:30:38
because they have dominance in military
00:30:40
escalation and capabilities Iran um is
00:30:45
Israel's principal adversary in the
00:30:47
region America's principal adversary in
00:30:50
the region but they are at a historic
00:30:53
weak point um post Revolution they've as
00:30:57
you say
00:30:58
lost uh their empire their their axis of
00:31:02
resistance I mean you know Yemen and the
00:31:05
houthis uh which was the most autonomous
00:31:08
of the groups are still doing okay um
00:31:11
but Assad is gone which means they can't
00:31:13
get weapons to Lebanon um Hezbollah is
00:31:17
basically gone and their leadership has
00:31:19
been destroyed Hamas is gone um Islamic
00:31:23
Jihad Palestinian Islamic Jihad in a lot
00:31:25
of trouble um and so if you you are Iran
00:31:29
um you know that you can't rely on your
00:31:32
Regional strategy
00:31:34
anymore uh they also have a lot of
00:31:36
domestic problems their economy is doing
00:31:39
horribly and Trump coming in is going to
00:31:41
increase the pressure to prevent all of
00:31:44
these uh non-flag tankers from getting
00:31:47
out um and allowing the Iranians to sell
00:31:50
their oil illegally so uh the economic
00:31:53
situation which is already in freef Fall
00:31:55
with lots of um you know energy shortage
00:31:58
and also some of the worst air pollution
00:32:00
in the world because they have to burn
00:32:02
anything they can find um is going to
00:32:04
get much worse this reminds me of the
00:32:07
Soviet Union in about 1989 when they
00:32:10
lost the East block and suddenly the
00:32:12
people in the Soviet Union saw the
00:32:14
emperor had no close uh and that the
00:32:16
system wasn't working now the Iranians
00:32:19
have the capacity to engage in a lot of
00:32:21
domestic repression but the Supreme
00:32:23
Leader's 85 years old he's not well he
00:32:26
has not picked a clear successor
00:32:28
um and there are also insurgencies
00:32:31
including with ethnic minorities in Iran
00:32:34
in places like sistan and bistan so I
00:32:37
mean frankly I don't think that Iran is
00:32:40
on the precipice of implosion but they
00:32:42
are heading there and the Americans and
00:32:45
the Israelis may be interested in
00:32:47
helping them get there um I mean Israel
00:32:50
certainly sees this as a unique
00:32:52
opportunity to take care of their Iran
00:32:54
business now they can do a lot they can
00:32:57
hit them with iage cyber um critical
00:33:00
infrastructure they could take out some
00:33:02
of the Islamic revolutionary guard Corp
00:33:04
what they can't do by themselves is take
00:33:06
out the nuclear capabilities they need
00:33:08
American Military capacity for that and
00:33:11
so the question is Will trump help and
00:33:15
there are those in the incoming Trump
00:33:17
Administration that thinks that's
00:33:19
exactly what Trump should do not clear I
00:33:22
I suspect he doesn't want to risk
00:33:24
Another War um that could lead oil
00:33:26
prices to get higher impact the global
00:33:28
Marketplace I suspect he's going to hit
00:33:31
the Iranians hard and see what kind of a
00:33:33
deal might be cut by them so there's a
00:33:37
possibility that you know a much tougher
00:33:40
relationship with Iran creates more risk
00:33:43
But ultimately creates a deal and Trump
00:33:45
gets a Nobel Peace Prize I wouldn't bet
00:33:47
on that I think it's unlikely the
00:33:49
Iranians and a trump Administration will
00:33:51
come to an agreement it's more likely
00:33:54
that we're heading towards direct
00:33:55
confrontation
00:33:58
let's change Tac just a little bit so
00:34:00
you and I have talked very directly
00:34:02
about the need for regulation of
00:34:04
artificial intelligence and you actually
00:34:06
have been working very directly and very
00:34:08
specifically on just that topic and yet
00:34:11
you still have ai Unbound on your list
00:34:14
of risks so does that mean that
00:34:15
regulation is not coming for AI or where
00:34:18
do you think we are with that and what
00:34:19
do you think we should be watching for
00:34:21
yeah Helen that's pretty much what it
00:34:22
means uh it means that the efforts at
00:34:25
regulation have been going a lot slower
00:34:27
than the technological build not
00:34:30
surprising given how extraordinary the
00:34:32
technology is and just how much money is
00:34:33
going into it and also that some of the
00:34:36
regulation in place is actually going
00:34:38
away or is eroding um the uh United
00:34:42
Kingdom last year put their flag uh in
00:34:45
the AI landscape by saying that they
00:34:47
were going to host every year an AI
00:34:49
safety Summit that's how they really
00:34:51
wanted to make sure that everyone was
00:34:52
paying attention to the UK they just
00:34:54
rebranded it this year's is going to be
00:34:56
called the AI action Summit tells you a
00:34:58
lot they don't want to be left behind
00:35:00
they want to make sure that they're
00:35:01
competitive and they're building more
00:35:03
capacity the EU feeling the same way the
00:35:07
French feeling the same way really
00:35:09
wanting to help their own nent unicorns
00:35:11
and not
00:35:12
overregulation probably going to end um
00:35:16
the resend the uh executive order by
00:35:18
Biden with the heads of the seven
00:35:21
systemically important us AI companies
00:35:24
uh he'll probably also stop the nent us
00:35:28
Chinese um AI dialogue that was hoped
00:35:32
over time would try to reduce the
00:35:35
potential for an AI arms race of the
00:35:38
kind that we had with the Soviets on
00:35:39
nuclear weapons in the early Cold War um
00:35:43
the US European trade and Technology
00:35:46
Council likely to be Unwound under Trump
00:35:50
so all of these early stage efforts that
00:35:52
were not moving fast enough um are
00:35:55
probably not going to be with us
00:35:57
effectively for long um in addition to
00:36:01
that uh we are already seeing that the
00:36:04
advances in this technology and you know
00:36:06
that I'm an Enthusiast for AI I believe
00:36:09
that you know incredible human capital
00:36:11
will be unlocked extraordinary
00:36:13
industrial use cases in every sector
00:36:16
around the world but I also see people
00:36:20
Bad actors that are capable of using uh
00:36:23
this AI in ways that are dangerous um
00:36:26
and I'll give you example Le I mean you
00:36:28
look at um meta and their open- Source
00:36:31
llama chatbot and there are a lot of
00:36:34
people out there that are basically
00:36:37
re-engineering llama uh so that it
00:36:39
doesn't adhere um to the constraints um
00:36:43
the uh if you will the the the ideology
00:36:46
of meta but what some would also say
00:36:48
would be the safety um of meta and and
00:36:52
some of my people have downloaded those
00:36:54
on their laptops and started using it
00:36:57
just what you can do and they've gotten
00:37:00
the AI bot to explain how to use arsenic
00:37:04
to assassinate someone to help them
00:37:06
figure out how you would Target and kill
00:37:08
a major CEO of a company now I mean we
00:37:11
we're not doing that obviously but lots
00:37:15
of people are um and that is not
00:37:18
sustainable so I mean the extraordinary
00:37:22
capabilities of these
00:37:24
Technologies the the unfettered comp
00:37:27
competition which is driving so much
00:37:29
compute and energy use and capital and
00:37:32
Entrepreneurship from the Americans from
00:37:34
the Chinese and from others is not being
00:37:37
met by anywhere close to an adequate
00:37:40
regulatory environment and that means
00:37:42
that we're only going to figure out you
00:37:44
know where things break when they break
00:37:47
uh and we are heading in that direction
00:37:50
right so it's going to take some in
00:37:52
intense catastrophe for people to start
00:37:54
to take that seriously and as we know
00:37:56
with gun control maybe not even take it
00:37:57
seriously then that's probably right all
00:38:00
right now this is Ted Ian we are not
00:38:04
just about risks we all appreciate that
00:38:06
you came here and you have detailed the
00:38:08
top risks but I have to turn it on its
00:38:10
head if you don't mind just for the last
00:38:12
question because we love those who are
00:38:15
looking for Solutions not just detailing
00:38:17
the problems and I asked you this last
00:38:18
time when we went through the risks of
00:38:20
2024 and so I have to ask you again what
00:38:22
or who or where are the bright spots
00:38:26
what gives you hope in 2025 well I mean
00:38:29
first of all taking away the
00:38:32
geopolitics the technology is a bright
00:38:35
spot um the technology for AI the
00:38:39
technology uh for sustainable energy uh
00:38:42
I mean I I don't care uh if the US pulls
00:38:46
out of Paris climate Accord and Trump
00:38:49
says he's not going to subsidize
00:38:50
electric vehicles anymore and he wants
00:38:52
to help fossil fuels all of that is not
00:38:55
going to stop an extraordinary
00:38:58
transition to postc carbon energies
00:39:01
which the Chinese are leading on
00:39:03
globally and they may extend that lead
00:39:06
um but I mean they're going to be carbon
00:39:07
neutral a lot faster than
00:39:10
2030 um and a lot faster than they
00:39:12
expected now some of that's because
00:39:14
their econom is not doing that well but
00:39:15
some of that is because the price of
00:39:17
these Technologies at scale has been
00:39:19
going down down down you know I mean
00:39:22
following Moors law basically um so
00:39:24
that's extraordinary I love the idea
00:39:26
that in 20 to 30 years we're going to
00:39:28
have sustainable abundant inexpensive
00:39:32
energy for the world that's that's
00:39:34
pretty exciting um I love the idea that
00:39:37
um the use cases for AI every day are
00:39:41
becoming more and more Earth changing
00:39:44
and that will reduce waste that will
00:39:47
allow us to better measure things around
00:39:50
the world and when you measure them you
00:39:52
can manage them when you manage them um
00:39:55
you can improve upon them uh that's I
00:39:58
mean we haven't had good real-time data
00:40:00
on our world on our economy on our
00:40:03
environment AI will give us that um and
00:40:06
that will allow us to more efficiently
00:40:09
use the resources the scarce resources
00:40:11
that we've been blessed with so I'm a
00:40:14
big
00:40:14
Enthusiast about the Technologies as is
00:40:18
Ted um but those aren't geopolitical
00:40:22
upsides the geopolitical upsides I I'll
00:40:25
give you a couple um
00:40:27
one is that Trump is not going to be a
00:40:31
failure the fact that Trump has such a
00:40:34
strong position does mean that other
00:40:37
countries will want to give him WIS and
00:40:40
that is stabilizing where those winds
00:40:42
occur so I mentioned that cloudia shine
00:40:44
bomb is going to do everything possible
00:40:46
to find a way to fix the relationship
00:40:49
that Trump thinks is broken it may take
00:40:51
her longer than she wants I think she
00:40:54
will get there uh the Europeans and the
00:40:56
Americans may get into a tit fortat
00:40:58
tariff War but I also think they're
00:41:01
going to work more closely on
00:41:03
coordinating some policies on China I
00:41:06
think they'll work more closely the
00:41:07
Europeans will buy more natural gas from
00:41:09
the United States there is a desire to
00:41:12
get a deal done that's not going to work
00:41:14
everywhere I don't think it'll work on
00:41:16
China I don't think it'll work on Iran I
00:41:18
don't think it'll fix the Russia
00:41:20
conflict but where it does work it will
00:41:23
be meaningful and you want the president
00:41:26
of the United States to have some wins I
00:41:28
mean at the end of the day he's the most
00:41:30
powerful leader of any country in the
00:41:32
world that's important
00:41:35
secondarily one place I strongly
00:41:37
disagree with Trump trump believes that
00:41:40
a strong Europe is bad for the United
00:41:42
States in a gzero world I think a strong
00:41:45
Europe is good for the United States
00:41:46
it's good for global stability and it's
00:41:48
also good longterm for keeping American
00:41:52
adversaries at Bay um Trump is
00:41:55
supporting an Elon Musk particular is
00:41:58
supporting all of these euroskeptic
00:42:01
movements the Reform Party um in the UK
00:42:05
the alternatives for deuts land um in
00:42:07
Germany I suspect soon the national
00:42:10
rally in France though he hasn't spoken
00:42:12
about it yet now that macron's coming
00:42:13
after me probably will the good news is
00:42:16
that I don't think it matters I think
00:42:19
that Europe is going to continue to
00:42:20
stand up in 2025 it might even get
00:42:24
stronger not economically where they're
00:42:26
underperform compared to the US but
00:42:28
politically from a security perspective
00:42:31
as well they know they need to and the
00:42:34
leaders that I see in Europe I see Mark
00:42:37
Ruta uh as Secretary General of NATO I
00:42:41
see Ursula vandine running the EU for a
00:42:44
second term um I see a very capable
00:42:47
Roberto metsola and Kaaya kalis
00:42:49
underneath her um driving foreign policy
00:42:52
for example in the European Parliament
00:42:54
um the Germans are about to have an
00:42:56
election know afd is not going to win
00:42:58
despite Elon saying that they're going
00:43:00
to it's going to be Frederick MZ and
00:43:03
it's going to be a center-right
00:43:04
government that's going to be quite
00:43:06
close with all the European leaders at
00:43:08
the EU level and quite close to macron
00:43:10
macron is in big trouble in 2027 but he
00:43:13
runs foreign policy still until then and
00:43:16
he's going to be quite cohesive uh with
00:43:19
the Germans and with the Europeans in
00:43:21
2025 so at least for this year I think
00:43:24
the Europeans stand strongly and are
00:43:27
more cohesive and coordinated it's a
00:43:29
very important thing for what still is
00:43:31
the world's largest common
00:43:33
market well Ian I on behalf of our
00:43:37
entire Community am an Enthusiast of
00:43:39
these conversations we're very grateful
00:43:40
to you for coming and sharing your
00:43:42
wisdom and your Insight and thank you
00:43:44
for coming back for the next thing that
00:43:46
we will need to discuss and that we will
00:43:47
need you to explain for now thank you so
00:43:50
much and if you want to take a look at
00:43:52
all of the risks you can see them online
00:43:54
at euras group.net for now Ian signing
00:43:58
off thank you so very much thank you
00:43:59
Helen
