CIA Director Bill Burns on war in Ukraine, intelligence challenges posed by China

00:17:26
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WFYMxUH3nKc

概要

TLDRBill Burns, Director of the CIA, discusses his role and the challenges faced in global security. Initially a career diplomat, Burns has been pivotal in diplomatic efforts such as the Iran nuclear deal. Since joining the CIA, he has observed significant global shifts, including rising power competition with China and Russia and ongoing terrorism threats. He remains firm in the belief that Russia's war in Ukraine is failing strategically for Putin, despite the economic repercussions on the West. Burns also highlights China's reluctance to fully align militarily with Russia, their partnership nonetheless posing a significant geopolitical challenge. Within the U.S., platforms like TikTok are seen as security risks due to potential Chinese government influence. Despite Iranian protests indicating regime dissatisfaction, he notes no immediate threat to its power. Overall, Burns emphasizes the CIA’s priority to remain unbiased and effectively address these international challenges.

収穫

  • 👤 Bill Burns is a seasoned diplomat and the current CIA Director.
  • 🌍 Global transformations and technological revolutions pose new challenges.
  • 🇺🇦 Ukraine is resilient against Russia despite strategic setbacks for Putin.
  • 🇨🇳 The Russia-China alliance is notable but has limits like military support.
  • 📱 TikTok poses national security risks due to potential data misuse by China.
  • 🇮🇷 Protests in Iran show discontent but don’t immediately threaten the regime.
  • 🔒 CIA strives to remain unbiased amid political divisions in the U.S.
  • 💼 CIA prioritizes geopolitical intelligence, especially regarding China.
  • 🕵️ The role of the CIA in safeguarding American security remains crucial.
  • 🔔 International alliances and rivalries shape current CIA strategies.

タイムライン

  • 00:00:00 - 00:05:00

    Bill Burns, former Deputy Secretary of State, is now CIA Director under President Biden. He reflects on the global transformations and technological revolutions impacting intelligence operations. Burns notes the challenges posed by major power competition with China and Russia as well as terrorism. The CIA is active in addressing these issues, with Burns asserting the agency’s efforts to maintain U.S. safety.

  • 00:05:00 - 00:10:00

    Burns discusses the ongoing war in Ukraine, analyzing Vladimir Putin's miscalculations in the conflict. Despite the war's costs to the U.S. and Europe, Burns sees strategic failures for Putin, citing military and economic setbacks. He notes the unease within Russia regarding the war's toll, despite Putin's firm grip on power.

  • 00:10:00 - 00:17:26

    The interview shifts to global relations, examining Putin’s nuclear threats and the unlikely prospect of negotiation with Ukraine. Burns highlights the complex dynamics of Russian-Chinese relations, noting China’s cautious stance on military support for Russia. The discussion also covers China’s ambitions regarding Taiwan, with Burns acknowledging the high priority the CIA places on monitoring China.

マインドマップ

ビデオQ&A

  • Who is Bill Burns?

    Bill Burns is the current CIA Director and a former career diplomat.

  • What roles has Bill Burns held before becoming CIA Director?

    He was the Deputy Secretary in President Obama's second term and Ambassador to Russia.

  • What are the main challenges faced by the CIA according to Bill Burns?

    The CIA is dealing with power competition with China and Russia, terrorism, and rapid technological changes.

  • What is Bill Burns' view on the current situation in Ukraine?

    He believes that Putin's strategy is failing and that Ukraine continues to resist effectively despite challenges.

  • How does Bill Burns view the relationship between China and Russia?

    He sees a partnership but notes China's reluctance to fully support Russia militarily.

  • Is Bill Burns concerned about the protests in Iran?

    Yes, the widespread protests indicate frustration with the Iranian regime, but it doesn't pose an immediate threat to the regime's power.

  • Why is TikTok considered a national security threat?

    Because the Chinese government can allegedly access user data and influence content.

  • What is Bill Burns' position on using TikTok in the U.S.?

    He advises people to be really careful with using TikTok.

  • What are Burns' priorities as CIA Director?

    Countering geopolitical challenges, especially regarding China, and ensuring CIA's operational effectiveness.

  • How does political division in the U.S. affect the CIA's work?

    CIA focuses on remaining apolitical, providing unbiased intelligence without any policy agenda.

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  • 00:00:02
    JUDY: BILL BURNS HAS BEEN A
  • 00:00:03
    CAREER DIPLOMAT, A PILLAR OF THE
  • 00:00:06
    STATE DEPARTMENT FOR DECADES,
  • 00:00:09
    RISING TO THE NUMBER TWO JOB,
  • 00:00:09
    DEPUTY SECRETARY, IN PRESIDENT
  • 00:00:12
    OBAMA'S SECOND TERM.
  • 00:00:14
    HE'S BEEN AMBASSADOR TO RUSSIA,
  • 00:00:15
    AND WAS INSTRUMENTAL IN SETTING
  • 00:00:16
    UP THE IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL.
  • 00:00:19
    BUT FOR MUCH OF THE PAST TWO
  • 00:00:20
    YEARS, HE'S WORN A DIFFERENT HAT
  • 00:00:21
    FOR PRESIDENT BIDEN -- DIRECTOR
  • 00:00:22
    OF THE
  • 00:00:24
    CIA.
  • 00:00:24
    IT WAS A CHANGE OF VENUE AND
  • 00:00:25
    SCENE FOR HIM, BUT NOT OF
  • 00:00:28
    MISSION AS HE SEES IT.
  • 00:00:30
    AND WITH A WORLD FULL OF DIRECT
  • 00:00:33
    AND URGENT CHALLENGES, THESE ARE
  • 00:00:34
    NOT QUIET DAYS AT THE CIA.
  • 00:00:36
    I MET DIRECTOR BURNS THIS
  • 00:00:38
    MORNING AT THE SPRAWLING CIA
  • 00:00:39
    HEADQUARTERS IN NORTHERN
  • 00:00:41
    VIRGINIA FOR A RARE INTERVIEW.
  • 00:00:45
    DIRECTOR BILL BURNS, THANK YOU
  • 00:00:46
    VERY MUCH FOR TALKING WITH US.
  • 00:00:48
    YOU'VE BEEN IN THIS JOB FOR THE
  • 00:00:50
    LAST TWO YEARS.
  • 00:00:53
    AS YOU REFLECT ON IT, IS THIS
  • 00:00:54
    COUNTRY SAFER, MORE SECURE, DO
  • 00:00:56
    YOU THINK, THAN WHEN YOU TOOK
  • 00:01:00
    OFFICE, OR NOT?
  • 00:01:00
    DIR. BURNS: I HOPE THAT'S THE
  • 00:01:02
    CASE.
  • 00:01:03
    AND WE CERTAINLY WORKED VERY
  • 00:01:04
    HARD AT CIA AROUND THE WORLD TO
  • 00:01:05
    TRY AND HELP KEEP AMERICANS SAFE
  • 00:01:06
    AS WELL.
  • 00:01:08
    AND WE RECOGNIZE THAT THIS IS A
  • 00:01:10
    MOMENT OF PROFOUND
  • 00:01:12
    TRANSFORMATION ON THAT
  • 00:01:12
    INTERNATIONAL LANDSCAPE.
  • 00:01:15
    AND THEN, YOU ADD TO THAT THE
  • 00:01:16
    REVOLUTION IN TECHNOLOGY, WHICH
  • 00:01:18
    IS TRANSFORMING THE WAY NOT JUST
  • 00:01:19
    THE WORLD WORKS, BUT THE WAY THE
  • 00:01:22
    INTELLIGENCE PROFESSION WORKS AS
  • 00:01:23
    WELL.
  • 00:01:25
    WE SEE THE RISE OF MAJOR POWER
  • 00:01:26
    COMPETITION WITH CHINA AND WITH
  • 00:01:30
    RUSSIA, AND THEN CONTINUING
  • 00:01:33
    CHALLENGES OF TERRORISM AND
  • 00:01:34
    OTHER KINDS OF PROBLEMS AROUND
  • 00:01:35
    THE WORLD, TOO.
  • 00:01:38
    IT'S NEVER DULL.
  • 00:01:39
    WE HAVE OUR HANDS FULL, BUT I'M
  • 00:01:40
    DEEPLY PROUD OF THE WORK THAT
  • 00:01:41
    THE CIA IS DOING ON ALL OF THOSE
  • 00:01:42
    ISSUES.
  • 00:01:43
    JUDY: LET'S TALK ABOUT UKRAINE.
  • 00:01:46
    RIGHT NOW, VLADIMIR PUTIN IS
  • 00:01:47
    GIVING EVERY INDICATION HE'S NOT
  • 00:01:48
    BACKING DOWN.
  • 00:01:49
    HE'S GOING TO STICK WITH THIS
  • 00:01:52
    WAR OF ATTRITION AS LONG AS HE
  • 00:01:55
    POSSIBLY CAN, THAT NOTHING WILL
  • 00:01:56
    DETER HIM.
  • 00:01:57
    IS HE RIGHT?
  • 00:01:58
    DIR. BURNS: NO, I THINK HE'S
  • 00:02:01
    WRONG.
  • 00:02:02
    I THINK HE'S WRONG IN THAT BET,
  • 00:02:03
    JUST AS HE WAS WRONG, PROFOUNDLY
  • 00:02:06
    WRONG, IN THE BET THAT HE MADE
  • 00:02:08
    ON FEBRUARY 24 WHEN HE LAUNCHED
  • 00:02:10
    THIS WAR.
  • 00:02:10
    TACTICALLY, I THINK WHAT WE SEE,
  • 00:02:13
    AT LEAST AT CIA, IS A REDUCED
  • 00:02:14
    TEMPO IN FIGHTING BETWEEN THE
  • 00:02:15
    TWO MILITARIES AS WINTER SETS
  • 00:02:16
    IN.
  • 00:02:18
    THE RUSSIAN MILITARY IS BADLY
  • 00:02:19
    BATTERED RIGHT NOW.
  • 00:02:20
    THE UKRAINIAN MILITARY IS
  • 00:02:22
    DETERMINED TO KEEP UP THE
  • 00:02:23
    PRESSURE, BUILD ON THEIR
  • 00:02:25
    BATTLEFIELD SUCCESSES OF THE
  • 00:02:26
    LAST SEVERAL MONTHS.
  • 00:02:27
    BUT THEY ALSO NEED TIME TO REFIT
  • 00:02:28
    AND RESUPPLY.
  • 00:02:32
    BUT THERE'S NOTHING AT ALL
  • 00:02:33
    REDUCED ABOUT THE TEMPO OF
  • 00:02:34
    PUTIN'S INCREASINGLY BRUTAL
  • 00:02:37
    ATTACKS AGAINST UKRAINIAN
  • 00:02:38
    CIVILIANS AND UKRAINIAN CIVILIAN
  • 00:02:39
    INFRASTRUCTURE.
  • 00:02:41
    JUDY: BUT THE COST TO THE UNITED
  • 00:02:46
    STATES, WEAPONRY, AMMUNITION,
  • 00:02:48
    EUROPEANS AND WHAT THEY'RE
  • 00:02:49
    SACRIFICING FOR THIS WAR TO GO
  • 00:02:50
    ON.
  • 00:02:51
    YOU'RE NOT CONCERNED THAT HE
  • 00:02:52
    COULD OUTLAST ALL THAT?
  • 00:02:53
    DIR. BURNS: I DON'T
  • 00:02:57
    UNDERESTIMATE FOR A MOMENT THE
  • 00:02:57
    BURDENS, THE CHALLENGES THAT
  • 00:03:00
    THIS WAR POSES FOR UKRAINIANS,
  • 00:03:01
    FIRST AND FOREMOST, BUT FOR ALL
  • 00:03:02
    OF US WHO SUPPORT UKRAINE.
  • 00:03:04
    BUT STRATEGICALLY, I THINK IN
  • 00:03:09
    MANY WAYS, PUTIN'S WAR HAS THUS
  • 00:03:09
    FAR BEEN A FAILURE FOR RUSSIA.
  • 00:03:10
    THE RUSSIAN MILITARY HAS
  • 00:03:11
    PERFORMED POORLY AND SUFFERED
  • 00:03:14
    HUGE LOSSES.
  • 00:03:14
    THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY HAS SUFFERED
  • 00:03:18
    LONG-TERM DAMAGE.
  • 00:03:18
    MOST OF THE PROGRESS THAT THE
  • 00:03:19
    RUSSIAN MIDDLE CLASS HAS MADE
  • 00:03:20
    OVER THE LAST 30 YEARS IS BEING
  • 00:03:21
    DESTROYED.
  • 00:03:25
    I THINK RUSSIA'S REPUTATION HAS
  • 00:03:26
    BEEN BADLY UNDERMINED AND ITS
  • 00:03:27
    WEAKNESSES HAVE BEEN EXPOSED.
  • 00:03:30
    THE RUSSIAN POPULATION SEEMS
  • 00:03:32
    INCREASINGLY UNEASY ABOUT THE
  • 00:03:32
    COSTS OF WAR AS WELL.
  • 00:03:34
    THE FACT THAT PUTIN, WHEN HE
  • 00:03:38
    LAUNCHED AT THE END OF
  • 00:03:39
    SEPTEMBER A PARTIAL
  • 00:03:39
    MOBILIZATION, THE REALITY WAS
  • 00:03:40
    THAT MORE RUSSIANS OF MILITARY
  • 00:03:42
    AGE FLED THE COUNTRY THAN HE WAS
  • 00:03:44
    ABLE TO ROUND UP AND SEND TO THE
  • 00:03:45
    FRONT.
  • 00:03:46
    SO HE'S GOT A LOT OF CHALLENGES
  • 00:03:48
    AS WELL.
  • 00:03:48
    JUDY: THAT ALL MAY BE THE CASE,
  • 00:03:50
    BUT HE SEEMS PERFECTLY SECURE.
  • 00:03:54
    I MEAN, ALL THOSE ECONOMIC HITS
  • 00:03:57
    THAT THE RUSSIANS TOOK, THE
  • 00:03:57
    SANCTIONS, THE COUNTRY'S STILL
  • 00:03:58
    CHARGING ALONG.
  • 00:03:59
    IT'S STILL FUNCTIONING.
  • 00:04:04
    DO YOU SEE ANY REAL THREAT TO
  • 00:04:05
    HIS POSITION?
  • 00:04:06
    DIR. BURNS: I THINK THERE'S AN
  • 00:04:09
    UNEASE ACROSS THE RUSSIAN
  • 00:04:10
    POPULATION RIGHT NOW.
  • 00:04:13
    THERE'S UNEASE FROM SOME MORE
  • 00:04:14
    HAWKISH CRITICS WHO SEE THE
  • 00:04:15
    CONDUCT OF THE WAR AS BEING
  • 00:04:16
    FLAWED.
  • 00:04:18
    AND THEN YOU HAVE THE UNEASE I
  • 00:04:19
    MENTIONED BEFORE OF, YOU KNOW,
  • 00:04:21
    LOTS OF RUSSIANS OF MILITARY
  • 00:04:21
    AGE, YOUNG RUSSIAN MEN FLEEING
  • 00:04:22
    THE COUNTRY AS WELL.
  • 00:04:26
    I'M NOT TRYING TO SUGGEST THAT
  • 00:04:29
    THAT POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT
  • 00:04:31
    TO HIS GRIP ON POWER.
  • 00:04:32
    HE'S CREATED A VERY SECURE AND
  • 00:04:33
    REPRESSIVE AUTHORITARIAN REGIME
  • 00:04:34
    IN HIS EYES.
  • 00:04:36
    BUT I THINK YOU'RE BEGINNING TO
  • 00:04:38
    SEE INCREASING UNEASE IN RUSSIA
  • 00:04:41
    ABOUT THE WAR, AND AN
  • 00:04:42
    ACCUMULATION OF DAMAGE TO THE
  • 00:04:43
    RUSSIAN ECONOMY AND TO RUSSIANS
  • 00:04:49
    ' FUTURE, WHICH IS GOING TO
  • 00:04:50
    TAKE A TOLL OVER TIME.
  • 00:04:51
    JUDY: PUTIN HAS SPOKEN ABOUT OR
  • 00:04:53
    SUGGESTED THE IDEA OF
  • 00:04:54
    RETALIATION.
  • 00:04:54
    WHAT ARE YOU MOST WORRIED ABOUT
  • 00:04:57
    FROM HIM, BEYOND UKRAINE?
  • 00:04:58
    DIR. BURNS: THERE'S BEEN SOME
  • 00:05:02
    VERY DANGEROUS NUCLEAR SABER
  • 00:05:04
    RATTLING BY PUTIN AND OTHERS
  • 00:05:06
    AROUND HIM HAVE DONE.
  • 00:05:06
    THAT WAS PART OF THE
  • 00:05:07
    CONVERSATION I HAD WITH ONE OF
  • 00:05:08
    MY RUSSIAN INTELLIGENCE
  • 00:05:08
    COUNTERPARTS.
  • 00:05:09
    JUDY: WHERE DO YOU SEE THAT
  • 00:05:10
    GOING?
  • 00:05:12
    DIR. BURNS: WELL, I THINK THE
  • 00:05:13
    SABER RATTLING IS MEANT TO
  • 00:05:14
    INTIMIDATE.
  • 00:05:15
    WE DON'T SEE ANY CLEAR EVIDENCE
  • 00:05:15
    TODAY OF PLANS TO USE TACTICAL
  • 00:05:16
    NUCLEAR WEAPONS.
  • 00:05:19
    WE'VE MADE VERY CLEAR, THE
  • 00:05:20
    PRESIDENT HAS MADE VERY CLEAR TO
  • 00:05:25
    THE RUSSIANS WHAT THE SERIOUS
  • 00:05:25
    RISKS OF THAT WOULD BE.
  • 00:05:27
    I THINK IT'S ALSO BEEN VERY
  • 00:05:28
    USEFUL THAT XI JINPING AND PRIME
  • 00:05:34
    MINISTER MODI IN INDIA HAVE ALSO
  • 00:05:35
    RAISED THEIR CONCERNS ABOUT USE
  • 00:05:37
    OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS AS WELL.
  • 00:05:37
    I THINK THAT'S ALSO HAVING AN
  • 00:05:38
    IMPACT ON THE RUSSIANS.
  • 00:05:39
    JUDY: THE OTHER THING THAT WE'VE
  • 00:05:41
    SEEN IN THE LAST WEEKS IS THE
  • 00:05:42
    CHAIRMAN OF THE JOINT CHIEFS,
  • 00:05:45
    MARK MILLEY, GENERAL MILLEY, IS
  • 00:05:48
    SPEAKING ABOUT WINTER MAY BE A
  • 00:05:49
    TIME FOR NEGOTIATIONS BETWEEN
  • 00:05:50
    UKRAINE AND RUSSIA.
  • 00:05:54
    HOW DO YOU SEE THAT?
  • 00:05:54
    DIR. BURNS: MOST CONFLICTS END
  • 00:06:00
    IN NEGOTIATIONS, BUT THAT
  • 00:06:00
    REQUIRES A SERIOUSNESS ON THE
  • 00:06:02
    PART OF THE RUSSIANS, IN THIS
  • 00:06:03
    INSTANCE, THAT I DON'T THINK WE
  • 00:06:03
    SEE.
  • 00:06:04
    IT'S NOT OUR ASSESSMENT THAT THE
  • 00:06:06
    RUSSIANS ARE SERIOUS AT THIS
  • 00:06:06
    POINT ABOUT A REAL NEGOTIATION.
  • 00:06:08
    JUDY: I WANT TO BRING CHINA INTO
  • 00:06:10
    THE CONVERSATION.
  • 00:06:11
    WHAT'S YOUR LEVEL OF CONCERN
  • 00:06:12
    RIGHT NOW ABOUT COOPERATION
  • 00:06:13
    BETWEEN THE RUSSIANS AND THE
  • 00:06:14
    CHINESE?
  • 00:06:14
    DIR. BURNS: I THINK XI JINPING
  • 00:06:17
    AND VLADIMIR PUTIN HAVE FORMED A
  • 00:06:18
    PRETTY CLOSE PARTNERSHIP OVER
  • 00:06:21
    RECENT YEARS.
  • 00:06:22
    A FEW WEEKS BEFORE PUTIN
  • 00:06:23
    LAUNCHED HIS INVASION IN
  • 00:06:24
    UKRAINE, WHEN THEY MET AT THE
  • 00:06:26
    WINTER OLYMPICS IN BEIJING, THEY
  • 00:06:27
    PROCLAIMED A FRIENDSHIP WITHOUT
  • 00:06:28
    LIMITS.
  • 00:06:30
    IT TURNS OUT THAT THERE ACTUALLY
  • 00:06:33
    ARE SOME LIMITS TO THAT
  • 00:06:33
    PARTNERSHIP, AT LEAST IN TERMS
  • 00:06:37
    OF PRESIDENT XI'S RELUCTANCE TO
  • 00:06:38
    SUPPLY THE KIND OF MILITARY
  • 00:06:40
    ASSISTANCE TO PUTIN THAT HE'S
  • 00:06:41
    ASKED FOR IN THE COURSE OF THE
  • 00:06:42
    WAR IN UKRAINE.
  • 00:06:44
    SO, I WOULDN'T UNDERESTIMATE FOR
  • 00:06:48
    A MOMENT THE COMMITMENT BETWEEN
  • 00:06:50
    THE CHINESE AND RUSSIAN
  • 00:06:52
    LEADERSHIPS TO THAT PARTNERSHIP.
  • 00:06:53
    BUT IT'S BEEN INTERESTING TO
  • 00:06:54
    WATCH THE CHINESE LEADERSHIP'S
  • 00:06:55
    REACTION TO THE WAR IN UKRAINE.
  • 00:06:56
    I DON'T THINK ANY FOREIGN LEADER
  • 00:06:57
    HAS PAID MORE CAREFUL ATTENTION
  • 00:07:01
    TO THAT WAR AND RUSSIA'S POOR
  • 00:07:02
    MILITARY PERFORMANCE THAN XI
  • 00:07:03
    JINPING HAS, AS HE THINKS ABOUT
  • 00:07:05
    HIS OWN AMBITIONS IN TAIWAN AND
  • 00:07:06
    ELSEWHERE.
  • 00:07:09
    JUDY: DO YOU BELIEVE THERE ARE
  • 00:07:10
    NEAR-TERM AMBITIONS ON HIS PART
  • 00:07:14
    TO TAKE OVER TAIWAN?
  • 00:07:16
    AND I MEAN THIS NEXT YEAR OR SO.
  • 00:07:19
    DIR. BURNS: I'M NOT SURE I WOULD
  • 00:07:22
    MEASURE IT IN TERMS OF MONTHS OR
  • 00:07:23
    A YEAR, BUT I WOULD NOT
  • 00:07:23
    UNDERESTIMATE FOR A MOMENT, NOR
  • 00:07:24
    DO ANY OF MY COLLEAGUES HERE AT
  • 00:07:27
    CIA UNDERESTIMATE HIS AMBITION
  • 00:07:30
    TO CONTROL TAIWAN.
  • 00:07:33
    IN OTHER WORDS, TO UNIFY BEIJING
  • 00:07:33
    AND TAIWAN ON THE PRC'S TERMS.
  • 00:07:38
    HE'S INSISTED PUBLICLY THAT HIS
  • 00:07:41
    PREFERENCE IS TO DO THAT BY
  • 00:07:42
    MEANS SHORT OF THE USE OF FORCE.
  • 00:07:44
    BUT WE KNOW THAT HE'S ALSO
  • 00:07:44
    INSTRUCTED HIS MILITARY
  • 00:07:46
    LEADERSHIP TO BE READY BY 2027
  • 00:07:47
    TO LAUNCH A WAR.
  • 00:07:52
    AND SO, I THINK THE HONEST
  • 00:07:53
    ANSWER IS THE FURTHER YOU GET
  • 00:07:54
    INTO THIS DECADE, THE GREATER
  • 00:07:54
    THE RISKS OF A MILITARY
  • 00:07:55
    CONFLICT.
  • 00:07:56
    JUDY: WHAT IS YOUR SENSE OF
  • 00:07:58
    URGENCY ABOUT ALL THIS?
  • 00:07:59
    MY COLLEAGUE NICK SCHIFRIN SPOKE
  • 00:08:00
    THIS WEEK WITH THE HEAD OF THE
  • 00:08:05
    ENDO PACIFIC COMMAND.
  • 00:08:06
    HE SPOKE ABOUT IT BEING URGENT.
  • 00:08:12
    DIR. BURNS: I SHARE THAT SENSE
  • 00:08:13
    OF URGENCY AS WELL.
  • 00:08:13
    WE HAVE NO HIGHER PRIORITY AT
  • 00:08:14
    CIA THAN, NOT JUST TAIWAN, BUT
  • 00:08:15
    THE LONGER TERM GEOPOLITICAL
  • 00:08:16
    CHALLENGE THAT XI'S CHINA POSES.
  • 00:08:21
    AND OVER THE COURSE OF THE TWO
  • 00:08:22
    YEARS I'VE BEEN DIRECTOR,
  • 00:08:25
    WE'VE ESTABLISHED A NEW MISSION
  • 00:08:27
    CENTER, WHICH IS SORT OF THE
  • 00:08:27
    ORGANIZATIONAL BUILDING BLOCK AT
  • 00:08:28
    CIA.
  • 00:08:29
    IT'S THE ONLY SINGLE COUNTRY
  • 00:08:30
    MISSION CENTER WE HAVE FOCUSED
  • 00:08:32
    ON CHINA.
  • 00:08:32
    AND WE'VE MOVED RESOURCES,
  • 00:08:34
    PEOPLE, PRIORITY IN THAT
  • 00:08:35
    DIRECTION BECAUSE IT'S A GLOBAL
  • 00:08:38
    COMPETITION.
  • 00:08:39
    JUDY: CLEARLY, THE WORLD WAS
  • 00:08:42
    WATCHING AS THERE WERE THESE
  • 00:08:42
    UNPRECEDENTED REVOLTS IN CHINA,
  • 00:08:44
    ACROSS THE COUNTRY ABOUT COVID
  • 00:08:45
    RESTRICTIONS.
  • 00:08:47
    THOSE SEEM TO HAVE DIED DOWN
  • 00:08:48
    SOMEWHAT.
  • 00:08:49
    BUT DO YOU THINK THEY WEAKEN XI
  • 00:08:50
    JINPING?
  • 00:08:54
    DIR. BURNS: NO, I THINK HE
  • 00:08:55
    EMERGED FROM THE RECENT PARTY
  • 00:08:56
    CONGRESS HAVING CONSOLIDATED
  • 00:08:57
    POWER IN THE STRONGEST POSITION
  • 00:08:59
    OF ANY CHINESE LEADER, PROBABLY
  • 00:09:02
    SINCE MAO.
  • 00:09:03
    HAVING SAID THAT, YOU KNOW,
  • 00:09:05
    HIS LEADERSHIP IS NOT TEN FEET
  • 00:09:06
    TALL.
  • 00:09:07
    CHINA, AS WE SAW IN THE
  • 00:09:10
    EXPRESSIONS OF FRUSTRATION IN
  • 00:09:13
    THE STREET OVER ZERO-COVID
  • 00:09:14
    POLICY, AS WE SEE IN THE REALITY
  • 00:09:17
    THAT CHINA'S ECONOMIC GROWTH
  • 00:09:17
    FIGURES ARE NOW AT HISTORIC
  • 00:09:19
    LOWS, WE SEE IN THE REALITY THAT
  • 00:09:24
    GIVEN THIS CHINESE LEADERSHIP'S
  • 00:09:27
    PRIORITY FOR CONTROL AND ORDER,
  • 00:09:29
    THAT SOMETIMES COMES AT THE
  • 00:09:29
    EXPENSE OF ECONOMIC COMMON SENSE
  • 00:09:30
    AS WELL, AND THAT CAN HAVE AN
  • 00:09:33
    IMPACT ON TECHNOLOGICAL
  • 00:09:34
    INNOVATION AND EVERYTHING ELSE
  • 00:09:35
    OVER TIME.
  • 00:09:38
    JUDY: ONE OTHER QUESTION ABOUT
  • 00:09:39
    CHINA IS THEIR VERY POPULAR
  • 00:09:40
    SOCIAL MEDIA PLATFORM APP,
  • 00:09:42
    TIKTOK.
  • 00:09:45
    YOUR DOMESTIC COUNTERPART, THE
  • 00:09:46
    HEAD OF THE FBI, CHRIS WRAY, HAS
  • 00:09:49
    SAID IT'S A THREAT TO U.S.
  • 00:09:49
    NATIONAL SECURITY.
  • 00:09:50
    DO YOU AGREE?
  • 00:09:52
    DIR. BURNS: I DO.
  • 00:09:54
    I MEAN, I THINK IT'S A GENUINE
  • 00:09:55
    CONCERN.
  • 00:09:58
    IN THE SENSE THAT BECAUSE THE
  • 00:10:01
    PARENT COMPANY OF TIKTOK IS A
  • 00:10:02
    CHINESE COMPANY, THE CHINESE
  • 00:10:06
    GOVERNMENT IS ABLE TO INSIST
  • 00:10:08
    UPON EXTRACTING THE PRIVATE DATA
  • 00:10:10
    OF A LOT OF TIKTOK USERS IN THIS
  • 00:10:12
    COUNTRY, AND ALSO TO SHAPE THE
  • 00:10:14
    CONTENT OF WHAT GOES ON TO
  • 00:10:19
    TIKTOK AS WELL, TO SUIT THE
  • 00:10:19
    INTERESTS OF THE CHINESE
  • 00:10:20
    LEADERSHIP.
  • 00:10:21
    I THINK THOSE ARE REAL
  • 00:10:22
    CHALLENGES AND A SOURCE OF REAL
  • 00:10:23
    CONCERN.
  • 00:10:23
    JUDY: AS YOU KNOW, SOME AMERICAN
  • 00:10:26
    LAWMAKERS WANT TO BAN TIKTOK.
  • 00:10:27
    DO YOU THINK THAT'S A GOOD IDEA?
  • 00:10:28
    DIR. BURNS: IN MY ROLE -- THIS
  • 00:10:37
    IS WHERE IN AN INTELLIGENCE ROLE
  • 00:10:39
    I'M NOT GOING TO OFFER JUDGMENTS
  • 00:10:40
    ON THOSE KIND OF POLICY OR
  • 00:10:41
    LEGISLATIVE DECISIONS.
  • 00:10:42
    WHAT I WOULD UNDERSCORE, THOUGH,
  • 00:10:43
    IS THAT IT'S GENUINELY TROUBLING
  • 00:10:46
    TO SEE WHAT THE CHINESE
  • 00:10:47
    GOVERNMENT COULD DO TO
  • 00:10:48
    MANIPULATE TIKTOK.
  • 00:10:50
    JUDY: AND WHAT WOULD YOU
  • 00:10:51
    RECOMMEND PEOPLE TELL THEIR
  • 00:10:54
    CHILDREN OR THEIR YOUNG FRIENDS
  • 00:10:55
    ABOUT WHETHER TO USE TIKTOK?
  • 00:10:58
    DIR. BURNS: I'D BE REALLY
  • 00:10:59
    CAREFUL.
  • 00:11:00
    JUDY: YOU WANT TO SAY ANYTHING
  • 00:11:02
    MORE THAN THAT?
  • 00:11:02
    DIR. BURNS: NO.
  • 00:11:04
    REALLY CAREFUL.
  • 00:11:05
    JUDY: IRAN.
  • 00:11:09
    THESE UNPRECEDENTED COUNTRYWIDE
  • 00:11:11
    PROTESTS THAT IRAN HAS SEEN
  • 00:11:12
    AFTER THE DEATH OF A YOUNG WOMAN
  • 00:11:17
    IN POLICE CUSTODY, THE MORALITY
  • 00:11:19
    POLICE.
  • 00:11:19
    IS THE REGIME NOW IN SERIOUS
  • 00:11:22
    JEOPARDY AS A RESULT OF ALL
  • 00:11:22
    THIS?
  • 00:11:23
    DIR. BURNS: I THINK WHAT STRUCK
  • 00:11:26
    OUR ANALYSTS AT CIA IS BOTH THE
  • 00:11:28
    DURATION OF THOSE PROTESTS NOW
  • 00:11:30
    ALMOST THREE MONTHS ON AND THEIR
  • 00:11:32
    SCOPE, BECAUSE THEY SEEM TO CUT
  • 00:11:34
    ACROSS IRANIAN SOCIETY, CUT
  • 00:11:36
    ACROSS ETHNICITIES,
  • 00:11:37
    SOCIOECONOMIC GROUPS.
  • 00:11:42
    IT IS ABOUT A GROWING NUMBER OF
  • 00:11:44
    IRANIANS WHO ARE FED UP WITH
  • 00:11:46
    ECONOMIC DECAY, WITH CORRUPTION,
  • 00:11:47
    WITH THE SOCIAL RESTRICTIONS
  • 00:11:49
    THAT ESPECIALLY AFFECT URANIAN
  • 00:11:52
    WOMEN -- IRANIAN WOMEN.
  • 00:11:57
    THEY ARE FED UP WITH POLITICAL
  • 00:11:58
    OPPRESSION, FED UP WITH THE
  • 00:11:59
    DENIAL OF BASIC HUMAN DIGNITY.
  • 00:12:02
    IN THE SHORT TERM, I DON'T THINK
  • 00:12:04
    THE IRANIAN REGIME PERCEIVES
  • 00:12:05
    THAT IMMEDIATE THREAT TO ITS
  • 00:12:06
    GRIP.
  • 00:12:07
    IT STILL HAS SOME VERY PRACTICED
  • 00:12:08
    HABITS OF REPRESSION AND
  • 00:12:08
    BRUTALITY THAT IT'S CONTINUING
  • 00:12:09
    TO EMPLOY.
  • 00:12:10
    IN THE LONG TERM, THOUGH, I
  • 00:12:12
    THINK THE REALITY IS THAT THIS
  • 00:12:13
    IS AN IRANIAN REGIME DOES NOT
  • 00:12:15
    HAVE GOOD ANSWERS FOR WHAT'S ON
  • 00:12:16
    THE MINDS OF A VERY YOUNG
  • 00:12:20
    POPULATION, 70% OF WHICH TODAY
  • 00:12:20
    IS UNDER THE AGE OF 30.
  • 00:12:22
    JUDY: CAN THOSE PROTESTS
  • 00:12:26
    CONTINUE, THOUGH, GIVEN THE
  • 00:12:27
    NUMBER OF ARRESTS, THE PEOPLE
  • 00:12:30
    WHO ARE DEAD, AND NOW
  • 00:12:30
    EXECUTIONS?
  • 00:12:33
    DIR. BURNS: I THINK THEY CAN.
  • 00:12:34
    AND THAT'S BEEN A REMARKABLE
  • 00:12:37
    INDICATION OF BOTH THAT
  • 00:12:38
    FRUSTRATION THAT I MENTIONED
  • 00:12:39
    BEFORE AND ALSO THE GENUINE
  • 00:12:40
    COURAGE OF PEOPLE OUT IN THE
  • 00:12:41
    STREETS.
  • 00:12:45
    THIS HAS GONE ON FOR JUST ABOUT
  • 00:12:46
    THREE MONTHS NOW AND IT CAN
  • 00:12:48
    CONTINUE FOR SOME TIME.
  • 00:12:49
    JUDY: NOW, OF COURSE, WE SEE
  • 00:12:51
    IRAN'S INVOLVEMENT WITH THE
  • 00:12:53
    RUSSIANS IN UKRAINE USING THE
  • 00:12:54
    DRONES.
  • 00:12:57
    HOW WORRIED ARE YOU ABOUT THAT
  • 00:12:57
    RELATIONSHIP NOW? [10.
  • 00:13:01
    -- ABOUT THE RELATIONSHIP NOW?
  • 00:13:01
    DIR. BURNS: QUITE WORRIED.
  • 00:13:04
    HISTORICALLY, THERE'S A LOT OF
  • 00:13:05
    MISTRUST BETWEEN RUSSIANS AND
  • 00:13:06
    IRANIANS, BUT THEY NEED EACH
  • 00:13:07
    OTHER RIGHT NOW.
  • 00:13:09
    AND WHAT'S BEGINNING TO EMERGE
  • 00:13:10
    IS AT LEAST THE BEGINNINGS OF A
  • 00:13:13
    FULL-FLEDGED DEFENSE PARTNERSHIP
  • 00:13:14
    BETWEEN RUSSIA AND IRAN, WITH
  • 00:13:14
    THE IRANIANS SUPPLYING DRONES TO
  • 00:13:18
    THE RUSSIANS, WHICH ARE KILLING
  • 00:13:19
    UKRAINIAN CIVILIANS AS WE SPEAK
  • 00:13:21
    TODAY.
  • 00:13:23
    AND THE RUSSIANS BEGINNING TO
  • 00:13:24
    LOOK AT WAYS IN WHICH
  • 00:13:25
    TECHNOLOGICALLY OR TECHNICALLY
  • 00:13:26
    THEY CAN SUPPORT THE IRANIANS,
  • 00:13:30
    WHICH POSES REAL THREATS TO
  • 00:13:30
    IRAN'S OWN NEIGHBORHOOD, TO MANY
  • 00:13:31
    OF OUR FRIENDS AND PARTNERS IN
  • 00:13:33
    IRAN'S NEIGHBORHOOD AS WELL.
  • 00:13:36
    JUDY: WHERE DO YOU SEE THAT
  • 00:13:40
    GOING, THAT LETHAL CLOSENESS OR
  • 00:13:42
    LETHAL RELATIONSHIP?
  • 00:13:43
    DIR. BURNS: I THINK IT'S ALREADY
  • 00:13:46
    HAVING AN IMPACT ON THE
  • 00:13:49
    BATTLEFIELD IN UKRAINE.
  • 00:13:50
    COSTING THE LIVES OF A LOT OF
  • 00:13:51
    INNOCENT UKRAINIANS.
  • 00:13:51
    AND I THINK IT CAN HAVE AN EVEN
  • 00:13:53
    MORE DANGEROUS IMPACT ON THE
  • 00:13:54
    MIDDLE EAST AS WELL IF IT
  • 00:13:54
    CONTINUES.
  • 00:13:55
    IT'S SOMETHING THAT WE TAKE
  • 00:13:58
    VERY SERIOUSLY.
  • 00:13:58
    JUDY: JUST A QUESTION ABOUT
  • 00:14:01
    NORTH KOREA.
  • 00:14:02
    THERE WAS ANOTHER TEST TODAY OF
  • 00:14:06
    A SOLID-STATE ENGINE MISSILE.
  • 00:14:08
    THE U.S. HAS NO LIES ON THE
  • 00:14:10
    GROUND IN THE COUNTRY, IS THAT
  • 00:14:11
    RIGHT -- HAS NO EYES ON THE
  • 00:14:14
    GROUND IN THAT COUNTRY, IS THAT
  • 00:14:15
    RIGHT?
  • 00:14:16
    [LAUGHTER]
  • 00:14:17
    NO ANSWER.
  • 00:14:19
    WHERE IS THAT HEADED?
  • 00:14:21
    WHERE DO YOU SEE THAT REGIME
  • 00:14:22
    GOING?
  • 00:14:24
    AND DO YOU SEE ANY EVIDENCE THAT
  • 00:14:27
    THE U.S. CAN HEAD OFF THE WORST
  • 00:14:33
    KIND OF ATTACK THAT THE NORTH
  • 00:14:34
    KOREANS MAY BE CAPABLE OF?
  • 00:14:36
    DIR. BURNS: I THINK WHAT WE HAVE
  • 00:14:39
    SEEN OVER THE LAST YEAR, JUST AS
  • 00:14:40
    YOU SAID, JUDY, IS QUITE
  • 00:14:41
    TROUBLING.
  • 00:14:42
    MORE THAN 50 LAUNCHES OF NORTH
  • 00:14:43
    KOREAN MISSILES OF VARIOUS
  • 00:14:45
    RANGES.
  • 00:14:45
    AND CLEARLY PREPARATIONS FOR
  • 00:14:46
    WHAT WOULD BE THE SEVENTH
  • 00:14:48
    NUCLEAR TEST BY THE NORTH KOREAN
  • 00:14:50
    REGIME AS WELL.
  • 00:14:52
    JUDY: I WANT TO ASK ABOUT YOUR
  • 00:14:56
    ROLE IN THE ADMINISTRATION.
  • 00:14:56
    PRESIDENT BIDEN HAS ASKED YOU TO
  • 00:14:57
    UNDERTAKE A NUMBER OF TRIPS
  • 00:14:58
    ABROAD.
  • 00:14:59
    YOU WERE JUST TELLING ME YOU
  • 00:15:01
    TRAVEL A LOT BECAUSE YOU WANT TO
  • 00:15:02
    STAY IN TOUCH WITH CIA PEOPLE
  • 00:15:03
    AROUND THE WORLD.
  • 00:15:07
    BUT THE PRESIDENT IS GIVING YOU
  • 00:15:08
    WHAT LOOKS TO BE DIPLOMATIC
  • 00:15:09
    RESPONSIBILITIES.
  • 00:15:12
    WHY DO YOU THINK HE'S DOING
  • 00:15:12
    THAT?
  • 00:15:14
    DIR. BURNS: OCCASIONALLY, I'M
  • 00:15:16
    ASKED TO DO THINGS IN
  • 00:15:19
    AFGHANISTAN LAST YEAR, YOU KNOW,
  • 00:15:20
    WITH REGARD TO RUSSIA, UKRAINE,
  • 00:15:21
    WHICH TAKES ADVANTAGE OF SOME OF
  • 00:15:23
    MY PREVIOUS EXPERIENCE OVER
  • 00:15:24
    THREE AND A HALF DECADES AS A AS
  • 00:15:27
    -- AS A CAREER DIPLOMAT AS WELL.
  • 00:15:29
    AND I'M ALWAYS GLAD TO DO THAT.
  • 00:15:30
    BUT IT'S ALWAYS IN SUPPORT OF
  • 00:15:32
    POLICYMAKERS.
  • 00:15:32
    IT'S NOT A SUBSTITUTE FOR THAT.
  • 00:15:36
    AND I DO TRAVEL A GOOD BIT
  • 00:15:37
    OVERSEAS.
  • 00:15:39
    AND IT'S ALSO ABOUT TAKING CARE
  • 00:15:41
    OF OUR PEOPLE BECAUSE WE ASK A
  • 00:15:42
    LOT OF OUR PEOPLE AND OUR
  • 00:15:43
    FAMILIES AT CIA, ESPECIALLY
  • 00:15:46
    SINCE 9/11.
  • 00:15:48
    THEY'VE BEEN DOING SOME VERY
  • 00:15:50
    HARD JOBS IN SOME VERY HARD
  • 00:15:51
    PLACES AROUND THE WORLD.
  • 00:15:52
    SO MY MOST PROFOUND OBLIGATION
  • 00:15:54
    AS A LEADER IS TO TAKE CARE OF
  • 00:15:55
    THEM SO THEY CAN CONDUCT OUR
  • 00:15:56
    MISSION AS AN AGENCY AS
  • 00:15:59
    EFFECTIVELY AS THEY DO.
  • 00:16:00
    JUDY: LAST QUESTION.
  • 00:16:02
    DOES THE DIVISION, POLITICAL
  • 00:16:04
    DIVISION ACROSS THIS COUNTRY
  • 00:16:04
    RIGHT NOW, WHICH IS PRETTY CLEAR
  • 00:16:09
    , IN ANY WAY AFFECT THE WORK
  • 00:16:11
    THAT YOU DO?
  • 00:16:11
    DIR. BURNS: IT CAN BE A
  • 00:16:14
    CHALLENGE, TO BE HONEST, IN THE
  • 00:16:16
    SENSE THAT WE ARE AN A-
  • 00:16:21
    POLITICAL ORGANIZATION.
  • 00:16:22
    OUR JOB IS TO PROVIDE THE BEST
  • 00:16:23
    INTELLIGENCE THAT WE CAN COLLECT
  • 00:16:24
    AND ANALYZE TO THE PRESIDENT, TO
  • 00:16:24
    POLICYMAKERS, TO DISCUSS THAT
  • 00:16:25
    WITH OUR OVERSIGHT COMMITTEES IN
  • 00:16:26
    THE CONGRESS AS WELL.
  • 00:16:29
    AND TO DO THAT WITHOUT ANY
  • 00:16:30
    POLICY AGENDA, ANY WHIFF OF
  • 00:16:31
    POLITICS.
  • 00:16:33
    YOU KNOW, OVER THE YEARS, I'VE
  • 00:16:34
    WORKED FOR SIX ADMINISTRATIONS
  • 00:16:38
    OF BOTH PARTIES, AND NEVER SEEN
  • 00:16:39
    MYSELF AS A VERY PARTISAN
  • 00:16:40
    PERSON.
  • 00:16:42
    AND SO, WE WORK VERY HARD AT CIA
  • 00:16:44
    TO PLAY THINGS DOWN THE MIDDLE
  • 00:16:46
    AS WELL AND TO BE AS HONEST AND
  • 00:16:49
    STRAIGHTFORWARD AS WE CAN.
  • 00:16:50
    I'VE SEEN TOO MANY INSTANCES
  • 00:16:54
    OVER THE COURSE OF MY 40 YEARS
  • 00:16:57
    NOW ALMOST IN GOVERNMENT WHERE
  • 00:16:58
    WE GET OURSELVES IN TROUBLE AS
  • 00:17:00
    AN AGENCY AND AS A COUNTRY OF WE
  • 00:17:01
    FORGET THOSE BASIC TRUTHS THAT
  • 00:17:05
    WE NEED TO PROVIDE THE BEST
  • 00:17:05
    POSSIBLE INTELLIGENCE WE CAN
  • 00:17:06
    WITHOUT A HINT OF PARTISANSHIP
  • 00:17:07
    OR A POLICY AGENDA.
  • 00:17:10
    JUDY: CIA DIRECTOR BILL BURNS,
  • 00:17:14
    WE THANK YOU VERY MUCH.
  • 00:17:16
    APPRECIATE YOUR TALKING WITH US.
  • 00:17:17
    DIR. BURNS: THANKS, JUDY.
  • 00:17:18
    IT'S GREAT TO BE WITH YOU.
  • 00:17:21
    ♪
タグ
  • Bill Burns
  • CIA
  • Ukraine
  • Russia
  • China
  • Diplomacy
  • Iran
  • TikTok
  • International Relations
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