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the crisis of credit
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visualized
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what is the credit crisis
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it's a worldwide financial fiasco
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involving terms you've probably heard
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like subprime mortgages collateralized
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debt obligations frozen credit markets
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and credit default swaps
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who's affected
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everyone how did it happen
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here's how the credit crisis brings two
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groups of people together homeowners and
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investors
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homeowners represent their mortgages and
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investors represent their money
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these mortgages represent houses and
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this money represents large institutions
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like pension funds insurance companies
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sovereign funds mutual funds etc these
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groups are brought together through the
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financial system a bunch of banks and
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brokers commonly known as wall street
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while it may not seem like it these
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banks on wall street are closely
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connected to these houses on main street
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to understand how let's start at the
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beginning
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years ago
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the investors are sitting on their pile
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of money looking for a good investment
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to turn into more money
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traditionally they go to the u.s federal
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reserve where they buy treasury bills
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believed to be the safest investment but
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in the wake of the dot-com bust in
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september 11th
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federal reserve chairman alan greenspan
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lowers interest rates to only one
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percent to keep the economy strong
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one percent is a very low return on
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investment so the investors say no
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thanks
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on the flip side this means banks on
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wall street can borrow from the fed for
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only one percent
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add to that general surpluses from japan
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china and the middle east and there's an
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abundance of cheap credit this makes
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borrowing money easy for banks and
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causes them to go crazy with
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leverage
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leverage is borrowing money to amplify
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the outcome of a
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deal here's how it works
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in a normal deal someone with ten
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thousand dollars buys a box for ten
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thousand dollars
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he then sells it to someone else for
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eleven thousand dollars
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for a one thousand dollar profit a good
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deal but using leverage someone with ten
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thousand dollars
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would go borrow 990 000 more dollars
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giving him one million dollars in hand
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then he goes and buys
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100 boxes with his 1 million dollars
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and sells them to someone else for one
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million one hundred thousand dollars
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then he pays back his 990 000
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plus 10 000 in interest
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and after his initial 10 000 he's left
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with a 90 000
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profit versus the other guys 1 000.
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leverage turns good deals into great
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deals this is a major way banks make
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their money
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so wall street takes out a ton of credit
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makes great deals and grows tremendously
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rich
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and then pays it back
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the investors see this and want a piece
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of the action and this gives wall street
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an idea
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they can connect the investors to the
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homeowners
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through mortgages
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here's how it works
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a family wants a house so they save for
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a down payment and contact a mortgage
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broker
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the mortgage broker connects the family
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to a lender
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who gives them a mortgage
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the broker makes a nice commission
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the family buys a house and becomes
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homeowners
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this is great for them because housing
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prices have been rising practically
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forever
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everything works out nicely
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one day the lender gets a call from an
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investment banker who wants to buy the
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mortgage
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the lender sells it to him for a very
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nice fee
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the investment banker then borrows
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millions of dollars and buys thousands
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more mortgages and puts them into a nice
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little box
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this means that every month he gets the
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payments from the homeowners of all the
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mortgages in the box
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then he sits his banker wizards on it to
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work their financial magic which is
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basically cutting it into three slices
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safe
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okay
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and risky they pack the slices back up
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in the box and call it a collateralized
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debt obligation or cdo a cdo works like
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three cascading trays
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as money comes in the top tray fills
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first then spills over into the middle
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and whatever is left into the bottom
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the money comes from homeowners paying
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off their mortgages
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if some owners don't pay and default on
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their mortgage less money comes in and
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the bottom tray may not get filled
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this makes the bottom tray riskier and
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the top tray safer to compensate for the
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higher risk the bottom tray receives a
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higher rate of return while the top
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receives a lower but still nice return
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to make the top even safer banks will
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insure it for a small fee
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called a credit default swap
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the banks do all of this work so that
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credit rating agencies will snap the top
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slice as a safe
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aaa rated investment the highest safest
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rating there is the okay slice is triple
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b still pretty good and they don't
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bother to rate the risky slice
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because of the triple a rating the
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investment banker can sell the safe
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slice to the investors who only want
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safe investments
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he sells the ok slice to other bankers
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and the risky slices to hedge funds and
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other risk takers
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the investment banker makes millions
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he then repays his loans
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finally the investors have found a good
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investment for their money much better
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than the one percent treasury bills
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they're so pleased they want more cdo
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slices
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so the investment banker calls up the
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lender wanting more mortgages
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the lender calls up the broker for more
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homeowners
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but the broker can't find anyone
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everyone that qualifies for a mortgage
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already has one
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but they have an idea
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when homeowners default on their
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mortgage the lender gets the house and
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houses are always increasing in value
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since they're covered if the homeowner's
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default lenders can start adding risk to
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new mortgages
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not requiring down payments no proof of
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income no documents at all
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and that's exactly what they did
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so instead of lending to responsible
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homeowners called prime mortgages
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they started to get some that were well
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less responsible these are subprime
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mortgages
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this is the turning point
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so just like always the mortgage broker
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connects the family with a lender and a
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mortgage making his commission the
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family buys a big house
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the lender sells the mortgage to the
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investment banker
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who turns it into a cdo
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and sells slices to the investors and
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others
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this actually works out nicely for
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everyone that makes them all rich
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no one was worried because as soon as
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they sold the mortgage to the next guy
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it was his problem
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if the homeowners were to default they
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didn't care they were selling off their
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risk to the next guy and making millions
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like playing hot potato with a time bomb
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not surprisingly the homeowners default
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on their mortgage which at this moment
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is owned by the banker this means he
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forecloses and one of his monthly
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payments turns into a house
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no big deal he puts it up for sale
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but more and more of his monthly
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payments turn into houses
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now there are so many houses for sale on
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the market creating more supply than
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there is demand and housing prices
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aren't rising anymore in fact they
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plummet
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this creates an interesting problem for
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homeowners still paying their mortgages
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as all the houses in their neighborhood
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go up for sale the value of their house
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goes down and they start to wonder why
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they're paying back their 300 dollar
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mortgage when the house is now worth
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only ninety thousand dollars
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they decide that it doesn't make sense
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to continue paying even though they can
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afford to and they walk away from their
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house default rates sweep the country
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and prices plummet
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now the investment banker is basically
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holding a box full of worthless houses
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he calls up his buddy the investor to
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sell his cdo but the investor isn't
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stupid and says no thanks he knows that
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the stream of money isn't even a dribble
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anymore the banker tries to sell to
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everyone but nobody wants to buy his
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bomb
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he's freaking out because he borrowed
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millions sometimes billions of dollars
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to buy this bomb and he can't pay it
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back
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whatever he tries he can't get rid of it
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but he's not the only one
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the investors have already bought
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thousands of these bombs
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the lender calls up trying to sell his
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mortgage but the banker won't buy it and
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the broker is out of work
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the whole financial system is frozen
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and things get dark
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everybody starts going bankrupt
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but that's not all the investor calls up
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the homeowner
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and tells him that his investments
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are worthless
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and you can begin to see how the crisis
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flows in a cycle
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welcome to the crisis of credit
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you