Chapter 23: Measuring the Income of a Nation
概要
TLDRThe video discusses how to measure the economic health of a nation using Gross Domestic Product (GDP). GDP is defined as the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a specified time period. It is made up of consumption, investment, government purchases, and net exports. The distinction between nominal GDP and real GDP is highlighted, illustrating that real GDP accounts for price changes over time. The video also emphasizes the limitations of GDP in assessing overall economic well-being, noting that it does not consider important social factors like education quality or health.
収穫
- 📈 GDP measures the economic health of a nation.
- 💰 GDP is composed of consumption, investment, gov purchases, and net exports.
- 📊 Nominal GDP does not account for inflation; real GDP does.
- 🧮 GDP deflator indicates price level changes over time.
- 🚫 GDP does not measure factors like education or health.
タイムライン
- 00:00:00 - 00:05:00
The video begins by introducing the concept of measuring a nation's economic health, with a focus on income as a key indicator. It emphasizes the importance of understanding the overall economic situation, initiating the discussion around Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as a primary measure.
- 00:05:00 - 00:10:00
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is defined as the measure of income for everyone in an economy. The video plans to explore the meaning of GDP, its calculation, and its relevance in measuring a country's economic wellbeing, while also hinting at its limitations.
- 00:10:00 - 00:15:00
The process of measuring GDP through circular flow is explained. It highlights the distinction between expenditure and income, emphasizing that households' expenditure is relatively easier to measure than their income as it may be underreported due to taxation.
- 00:15:00 - 00:20:00
An official definition of GDP is presented, which considers the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country during a specific timeframe. The importance of this definition is explored, particularly in focusing on legal market activity.
- 00:20:00 - 00:25:00
Further discussion on the definition of GDP clarifies the significance of 'final goods' in evaluation and explains that intermediate goods are not counted to avoid double counting. The emphasis is placed on newly produced goods and services for accurate GDP measurement.
- 00:25:00 - 00:30:00
The geographical constraints of GDP are outlined, indicating that only the goods produced within a country's borders are counted. Additionally, GDP is typically reported on an annual or quarterly basis for comparison purposes.
- 00:30:00 - 00:35:00
The components of GDP are then detailed, with a formula introduced: GDP = C + I + G + NX. Each parameter (Consumer spending, Investments, Government spending, and Net exports) plays a role in measuring economic activity, illustrating how income circulates through the economy.
- 00:35:00 - 00:40:00
Statistical data from 2015 illustrates consumer spending as the largest component of GDP, followed by investments and government spending, providing a concrete example of how these components contribute to the overall economy.
- 00:40:00 - 00:45:00
The concept of real GDP versus nominal GDP is introduced, emphasizing the need to differentiate between actual economic growth and price inflation. An explanation of real GDP calculation, using base year prices, is provided to illustrate this distinction.
- 00:45:00 - 00:52:38
The video concludes with mention of the GDP deflator as a measure of inflation, detailing how it is calculated and its implications for understanding changing price levels within the economy. It positions GDP as a useful but incomplete measure for assessing economic health, prompting consideration of additional factors.
マインドマップ
ビデオQ&A
What is GDP?
GDP stands for Gross Domestic Product and measures the income of everyone in an economy.
What are the components of GDP?
The components of GDP are consumption, investment, government purchases, and net exports.
What is the difference between nominal GDP and real GDP?
Nominal GDP measures the market value at current prices, while real GDP adjusts for inflation to reflect the true output of goods and services.
What does the GDP deflator measure?
The GDP deflator measures the overall level of prices in the economy over time.
What are some limitations of using GDP as a measure of economic health?
GDP ignores factors like quality of education, health of the population, environmental quality, and income distribution.
ビデオをもっと見る
- 00:00:00in this video we're going to talk about
- 00:00:02measuring the income of a nation so one
- 00:00:06of the things that we're going to be
- 00:00:08interested in is is looking at how to
- 00:00:11judge the health of an economy of a
- 00:00:15nation so if I were to give you as an
- 00:00:19assignment to say try to investigate my
- 00:00:25economic health and I said that you can
- 00:00:29you need to think about the pieces of
- 00:00:31information that you would want to
- 00:00:33gather from me that you would use to
- 00:00:36figure out whether or not my economic
- 00:00:39situation is good or bad probably one of
- 00:00:41the first things that you would think of
- 00:00:43is you would be interested in my income
- 00:00:46right because that that's not going to
- 00:00:49tell you everything about me I could
- 00:00:50have high income and poor health or high
- 00:00:53income and and there could be other I
- 00:00:56could have a lot of debt so it doesn't
- 00:00:59give you a complete picture but that
- 00:01:00would be a good place to start and and
- 00:01:02we're going to do that with an economy
- 00:01:04so we want to think about a way of
- 00:01:07measuring the income of everyone in an
- 00:01:10economy and what we're going to do is
- 00:01:13we're going to use something that we
- 00:01:16call gross domestic product GDP it's
- 00:01:19probably something that you may have
- 00:01:21talked about in another class or
- 00:01:23probably heard about at some point or
- 00:01:26another but we're going to think about
- 00:01:28GDP gross domestic product we're going
- 00:01:33to think about what it represents we're
- 00:01:38going to think about how to measure it
- 00:01:40we're going to think about what are some
- 00:01:44good things and some bad things about
- 00:01:45using it maybe some shortcomings of
- 00:01:48using it as a measure of the well being
- 00:01:51the economic well-being of a country
- 00:01:53it's going to be one of several
- 00:01:55different measures that we're going to
- 00:01:57be thinking about later on in other
- 00:02:00videos we'll talk about measuring the
- 00:02:02price level and we'll talk about other
- 00:02:04things like unemployment we'll talk
- 00:02:06about things like interest rates
- 00:02:09inflation but we're going to start here
- 00:02:13with grow
- 00:02:14domestic product so the idea here is
- 00:02:16that gross domestic product measures the
- 00:02:19income of everyone in the economy
- 00:02:22measures the income of everyone let's
- 00:02:30say in an economy so let's talk about
- 00:02:41how we're going to do that essentially
- 00:02:46gross domestic product you can think
- 00:02:48about it as measuring two different
- 00:02:50things at the same time let's think back
- 00:02:55to that circular flow diagram that we
- 00:02:57were talking about in an earlier video
- 00:02:59remember there we had a little box over
- 00:03:03here that represented households and
- 00:03:06over here we had another box that
- 00:03:09represented firms up here we had the
- 00:03:17market for goods and services I'm just
- 00:03:19going to call this the output market
- 00:03:24that's where goods and services are
- 00:03:26bought and sold and then down here we
- 00:03:28had the input market that's where the
- 00:03:36inputs things like land labour and
- 00:03:38capital are bought and sold so the
- 00:03:41output the goods and services these come
- 00:03:45from the firm's so these are the outputs
- 00:03:48and the households buy them so those are
- 00:03:55things like haircuts and solids and
- 00:04:00tires and all of the different goods and
- 00:04:03services economics lectures so these are
- 00:04:07the outputs
- 00:04:12the inputs are sold by the households
- 00:04:14those are labor things like that so here
- 00:04:16are the inputs and it's the firm's that
- 00:04:20are buying those inputs land labor and
- 00:04:22capital the dollars that households pay
- 00:04:31for outputs those go in this direction
- 00:04:33so these are dollars we call that
- 00:04:37expenditure so the number of dollars
- 00:04:42that households spend buying goods and
- 00:04:44services we call that expenditure that's
- 00:04:47the revenue for the firm's so I'm just
- 00:04:50going to put that as dollars there
- 00:04:52the firm's are buying these inputs and
- 00:04:55they're paying wages and rents and
- 00:05:01profits through this market to the
- 00:05:04households and those dollars that the
- 00:05:08households are earning for selling the
- 00:05:10inputs these are dollars here we call
- 00:05:13that income so it's the same number of
- 00:05:18dollars here flowing circularly if we
- 00:05:21measure the number of dollars right up
- 00:05:23here we would call it expenditure if we
- 00:05:25measure it right down here we would call
- 00:05:27it income so we can measure GDP this is
- 00:05:33kind of the natural way of measuring if
- 00:05:35we measure the income of all the
- 00:05:37households in the economy then we'd get
- 00:05:41what we want but the number of dollars
- 00:05:44right here is equal to the number of
- 00:05:45dollars right up here and it turns out
- 00:05:48that it's a little bit easier to measure
- 00:05:50right up here if we think about the
- 00:05:52number of dollars that households are
- 00:05:55spending to buy goods and services
- 00:05:57that's easier to get a grip on than the
- 00:06:01amount of income that households are
- 00:06:03earning one reason that that's true is
- 00:06:06that you might recognize that there
- 00:06:08there may be an incentive for households
- 00:06:11to underreport their income because
- 00:06:13they're going to get taxed on that and
- 00:06:15so you might say well we could just look
- 00:06:19at all of the income tax returns of
- 00:06:21everybody in the economy well yeah you
- 00:06:24could but
- 00:06:25we we look at expenditure so you could
- 00:06:28measure it here or you could measure it
- 00:06:29there we're going to talk about
- 00:06:31measuring it right there so let's talk
- 00:06:35about the official definition of GDP so
- 00:06:40this is something that we're going to
- 00:06:41use I'm going to write this out and then
- 00:06:43we're going to look at different parts
- 00:06:45of this definition so this would be it I
- 00:06:47need to get this up here so that we have
- 00:06:49a good definition that we can kind of
- 00:06:53break apart GDP is the market value
- 00:06:57market value of all final goods and
- 00:07:01services produced within a country in a
- 00:07:17given period of time so let's talk about
- 00:07:30all the different parts of this the
- 00:07:32market value of all final goods and
- 00:07:34services produced within a country in a
- 00:07:38given period of time so let's start with
- 00:07:41this part the market value we're going
- 00:07:44to be using prices market determined
- 00:07:47prices to value the goods and services
- 00:07:50so we're not interested in what somebody
- 00:07:53says that something's worth we're
- 00:07:56interested in what what is the price
- 00:07:58that this good or service is being
- 00:08:00bought sold for in a market and so in
- 00:08:04that sense you can see that the big
- 00:08:07items with higher prices things like a
- 00:08:09car or a truck would contribute more to
- 00:08:12GDP than than something small like a
- 00:08:15haircut okay we're going to be thinking
- 00:08:19about this phrase the market value of
- 00:08:21all final goods and services produced
- 00:08:24within a country so we're going to be
- 00:08:25thinking about all of the goods and
- 00:08:28services that are produced legally so
- 00:08:31nothing that that is bought and sold in
- 00:08:33the underground economy is
- 00:08:35going to be included there so we're not
- 00:08:37talking about illegal drug purchases or
- 00:08:39anything like that the market value of
- 00:08:43all final goods so let's talk about what
- 00:08:46a final good is a final good is is the
- 00:08:51the final product okay so if we think
- 00:08:53about a car that we could talk about the
- 00:08:55car as the final product there are a
- 00:08:57bunch of intermediate products or
- 00:08:59intermediate goods that go into that
- 00:09:01final goods so we aren't going to count
- 00:09:04the value of those intermediate goods so
- 00:09:08for example the tires on that car we're
- 00:09:11not going to separately count the value
- 00:09:13of the tires apart from the value of the
- 00:09:16car because the value of the car
- 00:09:17includes the value of the tires if we
- 00:09:19counted the tires also again separately
- 00:09:22we'd be double counting them so we're
- 00:09:24gonna be thinking about the market value
- 00:09:26of all final goods and services so these
- 00:09:29are going to be tangible things that you
- 00:09:32can hold in your hand like a pen they're
- 00:09:35going to be intangible things like an
- 00:09:37economics lecture okay so the market
- 00:09:41value of all final goods and services
- 00:09:43produced this term here we're going to
- 00:09:47be thinking about goods that are
- 00:09:49currently produced we're not going to be
- 00:09:51thinking about goods that were produced
- 00:09:54two years ago or five years ago so if
- 00:09:57we're thinking about somebody buying a
- 00:10:00used car well we're not going to count
- 00:10:02the value of that car in this year's GDP
- 00:10:05because it would have been counted back
- 00:10:08in the year that it was produced okay so
- 00:10:10we're gonna be thinking about newly
- 00:10:12produced goods and services within a
- 00:10:16country this phrase here we're only
- 00:10:19going to be thinking about goods and
- 00:10:21services produced within the geographic
- 00:10:23confines of the country so we're not
- 00:10:26going to be thinking if let's suppose
- 00:10:28that I buy a car made in Germany we're
- 00:10:32not going to be counting that as part of
- 00:10:34the GDP of the United States we're only
- 00:10:37going to going to be thinking about the
- 00:10:39goods and services produced within the
- 00:10:41geographic confines of the country that
- 00:10:45we're thinking about in our case it
- 00:10:46would be the United States
- 00:10:48and then in a given period of time so
- 00:10:52we're going to think about the the
- 00:10:53market value of all the final goods and
- 00:10:55services produced within the country in
- 00:10:57maybe the last year so we could think
- 00:11:00about this as being typically a year or
- 00:11:03maybe a quarter we could think about GDP
- 00:11:05for a quarter quarters three months so
- 00:11:09you can see there's a lot of stuff that
- 00:11:12goes into this definition of gross
- 00:11:15domestic product every little phrase has
- 00:11:18a very particular meaning GDP when the
- 00:11:22government reports GDP it is typically
- 00:11:25going to be seasonally adjusted what
- 00:11:27that means is that we if we didn't
- 00:11:31seasonally adjust it it wouldn't you
- 00:11:34wouldn't be able to compare GDP from say
- 00:11:36the final quarter of a year to GDP from
- 00:11:40the first quarter of the next year and
- 00:11:42the reason is that there's something
- 00:11:44that happens there at the final quarter
- 00:11:46of a year the holiday season when people
- 00:11:49are out buying presents for other people
- 00:11:53and and there's a lot more economic
- 00:11:55activity in that quarter than there is
- 00:11:56in other quarters typically and so what
- 00:11:59we do is we seasonally adjust that so
- 00:12:01that you can compare them and we don't
- 00:12:04need to go into what what it means or
- 00:12:06how you seasonally adjust anything just
- 00:12:09keep in mind that that it is typically
- 00:12:11seasonally adjusted let's talk about the
- 00:12:15components of gross domestic product
- 00:12:17this is going to be something that's
- 00:12:19important if we think about the symbol
- 00:12:23that we're going to use to stand for GDP
- 00:12:25it's we typically use a Y so this is GDP
- 00:12:29Y or GDP is going to be broken up into
- 00:12:33several different categories it's going
- 00:12:35to be C plus I plus G Plus in X let's
- 00:12:42talk about what each one of these things
- 00:12:44stands for so all of the dollars that go
- 00:12:48into a country's GDP are going to fall
- 00:12:52into one of these four categories this C
- 00:12:56C is the symbol that we use to stand for
- 00:13:00consumption
- 00:13:03why equals C plus I plus G Plus this
- 00:13:08one's going to be net exports
- 00:13:10the sea is consumption this is purchase
- 00:13:13of goods and services by consumers so if
- 00:13:19you go out and you buy a meal at a
- 00:13:22restaurant that falls into consumption
- 00:13:24or if you go out and you buy a new car
- 00:13:26that falls into consumption or you buy a
- 00:13:27new pair of shoes that falls into
- 00:13:29consumption i stands for investment
- 00:13:35investment we need to talk about that
- 00:13:37term a little bit we're going to use
- 00:13:42this term investment a little bit
- 00:13:44differently than you're probably used to
- 00:13:45thinking about it you're used to
- 00:13:48thinking about the word investment
- 00:13:50probably is meaning what you're doing if
- 00:13:54you buy stocks or bonds and that's not
- 00:13:56how an economist would think about the
- 00:13:58word investment if I if I were to go out
- 00:14:00and buy a stock shares of a stock in a
- 00:14:05corporation then an economist would
- 00:14:08describe that as saving what I'm doing
- 00:14:11is I'm taking some of my purchasing
- 00:14:12power I'm purchasing an asset with it
- 00:14:15with the hopes that that ass asset will
- 00:14:18appreciate in value so I will have more
- 00:14:21purchasing power in the future
- 00:14:22that's called saving investment here is
- 00:14:27what we call it when a business buys say
- 00:14:32a building or equipment that it's going
- 00:14:34to use to produce more goods and
- 00:14:36services in the future so this is is
- 00:14:40businesses purchasing equipment or
- 00:14:46structures new equipment or a new
- 00:14:52building a new structure that's
- 00:14:54investment you can also have household
- 00:14:57investment if a household if a family
- 00:15:00were to buy a new house we would call
- 00:15:03that residential investment or household
- 00:15:05investments so households can do some of
- 00:15:08this but typically this is going to be
- 00:15:10businesses that are engaging in
- 00:15:13investment G stands for government
- 00:15:15purchase
- 00:15:19so if the government spends money to say
- 00:15:26build a new highway or build a building
- 00:15:30in a library in some town that would
- 00:15:34fall into government purchases and then
- 00:15:37finally in X here this is what we call
- 00:15:41net exports net exports anytime you have
- 00:15:49net something like net income then that
- 00:15:52means something's means to subtract it
- 00:15:54off net exports is just exports minus
- 00:15:57imports exports minus imports so we want
- 00:16:07to count the things that are produced in
- 00:16:11the United States that foreigners buy
- 00:16:14from us those things need to be counted
- 00:16:18in GDP but we don't want to count the
- 00:16:22things that were produced in other
- 00:16:24countries that US citizens import into
- 00:16:27the country those should not be counted
- 00:16:28as part of GDP because they were not
- 00:16:31produced within the country so we need
- 00:16:33to subtract those things off let's talk
- 00:16:36about what would happen let's suppose I
- 00:16:39let's use the car example suppose I were
- 00:16:41to buy a car produced in Germany now we
- 00:16:47know that that should have no impact on
- 00:16:49GDP as a whole but let's think about how
- 00:16:52it's going to affect the components of
- 00:16:54GDP if I were to buy a car imported from
- 00:16:58Germany that's going to show up as part
- 00:17:01of consumption that would show up as as
- 00:17:03some dollars spent by my household so it
- 00:17:07would show up here is a positive but it
- 00:17:09would also show up here as a negative
- 00:17:11and by subtracting off the imports there
- 00:17:14that means that because it shows up here
- 00:17:16positive and it shows up there negative
- 00:17:18the two would cancel out and it would
- 00:17:20have no impact on GDP so if you think
- 00:17:25about how purchases by a US citizen
- 00:17:28affect GDP
- 00:17:29it doesn't have any impact on GDP as a
- 00:17:33whole but it certainly affects the
- 00:17:35components of GDP
- 00:17:36okay specifically consumption and net
- 00:17:39exports let's talk about just some
- 00:17:45dollar amounts and so I'll give you some
- 00:17:50numbers here just to give you an idea of
- 00:17:53of how large these things are if these
- 00:17:57will be numbers from say 2015 if you
- 00:18:03look at GDP in 2015 it was approximately
- 00:18:08seventeen point nine trillion dollars
- 00:18:12very large amount of money one thing
- 00:18:19that we're going to be interested in is
- 00:18:21what we call GDP per capita GDP per
- 00:18:25capita you can think about is just per
- 00:18:27person GDP so if you were to take the
- 00:18:29total income of the United States in
- 00:18:332015 seventeen point nine trillion and
- 00:18:37divide that by the population so the
- 00:18:40population in 2015 was about 321 million
- 00:18:47that gives you a per capita or per
- 00:18:51person GDP of about fifty six thousand
- 00:18:54it's actually so per capita GDP is about
- 00:19:02fifty five thousand eight hundred and
- 00:19:06eighty two dollars and that's what we're
- 00:19:13looking at here if we're looking at kind
- 00:19:15of a rough measure of the average income
- 00:19:18of people in the United States in 2015
- 00:19:21it was approximately around fifty six
- 00:19:24thousand now of course that doesn't mean
- 00:19:27that everybody has an income of
- 00:19:28fifty-six thousand dollars they're going
- 00:19:30to be some people with incomes that are
- 00:19:32much higher some people with incomes
- 00:19:34that are much lower than that but it
- 00:19:36does give you a place to start if you're
- 00:19:38if you're thinking about the economic
- 00:19:40health of an economy the
- 00:19:42is a good place to start it doesn't tell
- 00:19:45us everything it ignores distribution of
- 00:19:49income it ignores several things that
- 00:19:51we'll talk about later on in the video
- 00:19:53but it does give you a piece of
- 00:19:55information that we can start to figure
- 00:19:57out what's happening to the economy if
- 00:20:00we were to look at kind of how those
- 00:20:02dollar amounts are split between these
- 00:20:05components so this one's about fifty
- 00:20:07five thousand eight hundred and eighty
- 00:20:10two dollars total GDP if you look at
- 00:20:14consumption consumption in that year was
- 00:20:17about thirty-eight thousand two hundred
- 00:20:20and eighteen dollars so you can see that
- 00:20:22a vast majority of real GDP is made up
- 00:20:26by household consumption investment
- 00:20:29about nine thousand four hundred and two
- 00:20:32dollars so that's about 17 percent this
- 00:20:38is about 68 percent almost seventy
- 00:20:41percent of GDP falls into consumption
- 00:20:44not quite 20 percent 17 percent falls
- 00:20:47into investment about eighteen percent
- 00:20:50nine thousand nine hundred and nineteen
- 00:20:56falls into government purchases so you
- 00:20:59see that in terms of GDP about close to
- 00:21:03ten thousand dollars of GDP about
- 00:21:05eighteen percent of per capita GDP is
- 00:21:09government spending per person and then
- 00:21:13net exports is about negative one
- 00:21:16thousand six hundred and fifty seven
- 00:21:18dollars about negative three percent all
- 00:21:20that means is that our imports were
- 00:21:22bigger than our exports in 2015
- 00:21:25don't let that negative sign bother you
- 00:21:28there so that gives you an idea of kind
- 00:21:35of what the per capita income is and you
- 00:21:38know in the United States at least in
- 00:21:392015 what we need to do now is think
- 00:21:43about how useful this is this is
- 00:21:45actually what we call nominal GDP and it
- 00:21:48turns out that nominal GDP is is kind of
- 00:21:51limited in terms of how useful it is to
- 00:21:55us what we're really going to
- 00:21:56after is what we call real GDP so what
- 00:21:59we need to do is clear this off and then
- 00:22:01we'll talk about the difference between
- 00:22:02real and nominal GDP let's think about
- 00:22:06what happens if total spending by
- 00:22:09households went up from one year to the
- 00:22:12next so if we were to have an increase
- 00:22:15in GDP an increase in GDP as measured by
- 00:22:20household expenditure then that increase
- 00:22:24in GDP could be coming from one of two
- 00:22:26different places or maybe both it could
- 00:22:29be that there's more goods and services
- 00:22:32being produced so a higher output of
- 00:22:34goods and services or it could be that
- 00:22:44there's the same amount of goods and
- 00:22:46services but that they're being bought
- 00:22:47and sold at higher prices so it could be
- 00:22:49an increase in the overall level of
- 00:22:53prices we're interested in separating
- 00:23:03out these two effects we want to know
- 00:23:05how much of the increase in GDP is due
- 00:23:08to an increase in output and how much of
- 00:23:11it is due to an increase in the overall
- 00:23:13level of prices so let me give you an
- 00:23:16example of how this would work let's
- 00:23:20suppose that I told you that you had
- 00:23:24$100 to spend your income is $100 and
- 00:23:29the price of an ice cream cone is $1
- 00:23:33that means you could buy 100 ice cream
- 00:23:37cones now let's suppose that we change
- 00:23:40your income to $200 but we also change
- 00:23:47the price of ice cream cones to $2 well
- 00:23:52so now we've had a change in the level
- 00:23:54of prices your income doubled the price
- 00:23:56of an ice cream doubled but if we were
- 00:23:59to think about what happened to your
- 00:24:01real income if you've got $200 or not
- 00:24:04and an ice cream cone costs $2 you can
- 00:24:06still only by a hundred ice cream cones
- 00:24:08so
- 00:24:09turn in terms of the real amount of
- 00:24:11goods and services that you can buy
- 00:24:13nothing has changed for you so what we
- 00:24:17want to do is be able to separate
- 00:24:18separate out how much stuff is actually
- 00:24:22being bought and sold versus the prices
- 00:24:26at which that stuff is being bought and
- 00:24:27sold that okay and the way that we're
- 00:24:30going to do that is we're going to think
- 00:24:32about what we call real GDP real GDP is
- 00:24:40going to separate out the level of
- 00:24:43prices real GDP is going to tell us how
- 00:24:46the real amount of output of goods and
- 00:24:48services is changing so we're going to
- 00:24:53in order to calculate real GDP what
- 00:24:55we're going to be doing is picking a
- 00:24:57level of prices and then evaluating the
- 00:25:00output from one year to the next at that
- 00:25:02constant level of prices we're not going
- 00:25:04to be allowing price to change and that
- 00:25:07might not mean much to you right now but
- 00:25:09I think here right now we'll do an
- 00:25:11example and you'll see that it's
- 00:25:13actually very very easy to understand so
- 00:25:16let's do a numerical example let's
- 00:25:20calculate nominal GDP then we'll
- 00:25:22calculate real GDP and then we'll
- 00:25:24calculate a measure of the overall level
- 00:25:27of prices that we're going to call the
- 00:25:29GDP deflator we'll get to that here in a
- 00:25:31second but let's pretend in our economy
- 00:25:34that we only have two goods if we were
- 00:25:36calculating the GDP for the US economy
- 00:25:39there are going to be hundreds of
- 00:25:43thousands if not millions of different
- 00:25:45goods and services that consumers buy in
- 00:25:48a year we don't obviously we don't want
- 00:25:51anything even remotely close to that so
- 00:25:54we're going to pretend like there are
- 00:25:55only two goods that can be bought in our
- 00:25:58simple economy let's suppose they're
- 00:25:59hotdogs and hamburgers and let me give
- 00:26:02you some prices let's suppose that we
- 00:26:05have let's talk about some years and I'm
- 00:26:09going to use in terms of my years I'm
- 00:26:11going to use past years we could think
- 00:26:14about making an example where we have
- 00:26:17current years but I want you to be
- 00:26:19comfortable with the idea that we don't
- 00:26:22need
- 00:26:22years we can think about GDP for any
- 00:26:25year in the past if we wanted so let's
- 00:26:27just 2001 2002 2003 let's think about
- 00:26:35the some prices so let's think actually
- 00:26:38let's think about some quantities let's
- 00:26:40think about the quantity of hot dogs
- 00:26:44then we'll think about the price of hot
- 00:26:46dogs I don't know if you can read that
- 00:26:50on the video there let's think about the
- 00:26:52quantity of hamburgers I'm just going to
- 00:26:55put H there for hamburgers and the price
- 00:26:58of hamburgers I guess I've got hot dogs
- 00:27:06and hamburgers so let's call this HB for
- 00:27:11hamburgers so let me give you some
- 00:27:16numbers here for the quantities for each
- 00:27:18year and the prices let's suppose that
- 00:27:21in terms of quantities in 2001 let's
- 00:27:24suppose that there were a hundred hot
- 00:27:26dogs 2002 150 and 2003 200 that's how
- 00:27:33many hot dogs were produced in those
- 00:27:34three years let's suppose the prices $1
- 00:27:39$2 and $3 for hamburgers let's have
- 00:27:44let's say 50 in 2001 100 and then 150
- 00:27:52and prices for hamburgers let's suppose
- 00:27:57in 2001 two dollars then three then four
- 00:28:04so this tells us the economic activity
- 00:28:07in this economy in terms of the two
- 00:28:10goods that they are produced in the
- 00:28:12economy and it also tells us the prices
- 00:28:15that they're being bought and sold for
- 00:28:16so now let's calculate nominal GDP
- 00:28:21nominal GDP remember is the market value
- 00:28:24of all the final goods and services
- 00:28:25produced within the country in a given
- 00:28:28period of time typically a year so let's
- 00:28:31think about GDP in 2001 there was a
- 00:28:34hundred hotdogs each bought and
- 00:28:36sold for $1 that's $100 worth of hotdogs
- 00:28:39and then 50 hamburgers each bought and
- 00:28:42sold for $2 each that's also a hundred
- 00:28:45dollars worth of hamburgers so that's
- 00:28:47$200 worth of goods and services let's
- 00:28:50write that out so let's do nominal GDP
- 00:28:56and let's do that for 2001 2002 2003 so
- 00:29:07we've got 100 hotdogs times $1 plus 50
- 00:29:13hamburgers times $2 that gives us a
- 00:29:16nominal GDP in 2001 of 200 dollars 2002
- 00:29:24we have a quantity of hotdogs 150 times
- 00:29:28the price which is $2.00 plus 100 times
- 00:29:323 dollars that's $300 worth of hotdogs
- 00:29:37$300 worth of hamburgers that's $600
- 00:29:432003 we've got 200 hotdogs times the
- 00:29:46price which is 3 plus 150 hamburgers
- 00:29:52times the price which is 4 that gives us
- 00:29:55600 plus 600 that's 1200 dollars worth
- 00:30:00of hot dogs and hamburgers in 2003 so if
- 00:30:06we look at the difference between 2001
- 00:30:08to 2002 we see that nominal GDP tripled
- 00:30:13it went from 200 to $600
- 00:30:16remember GDP is our measure of income so
- 00:30:19it looks like income has gone up
- 00:30:20dramatically and then from 2002 to 2003
- 00:30:24income doubled again the problem with
- 00:30:27this is that this is nominal GDP and
- 00:30:29nominal GDP includes changes in output
- 00:30:34which is certainly happening here but
- 00:30:36also changes in prices which is also
- 00:30:40happening the prices are going up so
- 00:30:41what we want to do is we want to
- 00:30:44calculate real GDP so let's think about
- 00:30:47how we're going to calculate real GDP
- 00:30:50real GDP is going to tell us how much is
- 00:30:54output going up we want to eliminate the
- 00:30:57fact that price is changing so the way
- 00:30:59we're going to do this is we're going to
- 00:31:01choose what's called a base year our
- 00:31:04base year let's use for our example
- 00:31:07let's use 2001 as our base year we'll
- 00:31:12use the first year we don't have to we
- 00:31:14could use 2002 or 2003 or we could use
- 00:31:18some other year 1997 if we wanted to
- 00:31:22what we're going to do is we're going to
- 00:31:24evaluate the value of the hamburgers and
- 00:31:28hotdogs at the prices that existed in
- 00:31:312001 so the only prices that we're going
- 00:31:34to use will be the price of a hot dog in
- 00:31:372001 which is $1 and the price of a
- 00:31:39hamburger in 2001 which is $2 so now
- 00:31:43let's calculate real GDP for 2001 2002
- 00:31:47and 2003 so we're going to use the
- 00:31:53quantities from each year and the prices
- 00:31:55from 2001 so in 2001 it's going to look
- 00:32:00the same as it did up here it's going to
- 00:32:02be 102 hotdogs times the price of hot
- 00:32:05dogs in 2001 which is 1 plus the
- 00:32:09quantity of hamburgers 50 times the
- 00:32:11price in 2001 which is 2 that gives us
- 00:32:15$200 in real income real GDP in 2001
- 00:32:20notice that real GDP and nominal GDP are
- 00:32:25both equal to each other
- 00:32:26in 2001 they're always going to be equal
- 00:32:30in your base year because you're using
- 00:32:32the prices from that year now let's do
- 00:32:352002 so we're going to use the
- 00:32:37quantities from 2002 but the prices from
- 00:32:392001 so that's going to be 150 hotdogs
- 00:32:44times the price which is 1 plus 100
- 00:32:48hamburgers times the price in 2001 which
- 00:32:52is 2 that gives you 150 plus 200 that's
- 00:32:56350 dollars that's what real GDP looks
- 00:33:01like in 2002
- 00:33:03Ellis do 2003 quantity in 2003 is 200
- 00:33:09times the price in 2001 which is still 1
- 00:33:12plus the quantity of hamburgers which is
- 00:33:15150 times the price of hamburgers which
- 00:33:18is 2 that's 200 plus 300 that gives us
- 00:33:22$500 of real GDP in 2003 so you can see
- 00:33:30that these numbers for real GDP show us
- 00:33:33that real income is going up but not by
- 00:33:36nearly as much as what nominal GDP made
- 00:33:39it look like so in terms of the real
- 00:33:42quantities of goods and services real
- 00:33:45output of goods and services it is
- 00:33:47rising from 2001 to 2002 and then to
- 00:33:512003 what we need to do now is think
- 00:33:57about developing a way of measuring the
- 00:34:00change in prices and we're going to do
- 00:34:03that by using something that we call the
- 00:34:06GDP deflator GDP deflator the GDP
- 00:34:15deflator is something that we call a
- 00:34:17price index and we're going to talk
- 00:34:20about another price index that you've
- 00:34:22probably heard about later on in this
- 00:34:24class called the consumer price index
- 00:34:26the CPI the CPI and the GDP deflator
- 00:34:30essentially are doing the same thing
- 00:34:33they do it slightly differently from
- 00:34:34each other but GDP the GDP deflator is a
- 00:34:39way of measuring how prices change from
- 00:34:42one year to the next so here's how we're
- 00:34:45going to calculate the GDP deflator let
- 00:34:47me write the definition right down here
- 00:34:49the GDP deflator looks like this it's
- 00:34:51nominal GDP divided by real GDP
- 00:35:04multiplied by 100 the GDP deflator is
- 00:35:09nominal GDP divided by real GDP
- 00:35:12multiplied by 100 so let's figure out
- 00:35:18the GDP deflator for our three years so
- 00:35:22let's do that right up here GDP deflator
- 00:35:302001 2002 2003 so in 2001 nominal GDP is
- 00:35:39200 divided by real GDP in 2001 which is
- 00:35:43also 200 multiplied by 100 that gives us
- 00:35:47a deflator these cancel out may become 1
- 00:35:50that gives us a GDP deflator of 100 the
- 00:35:57GDP deflator is always going to be 100
- 00:36:00in your base year ok so that's a good
- 00:36:03way to just kind of double check that
- 00:36:04you've made the calculation correctly in
- 00:36:082002 our nominal GDP was 600 divided by
- 00:36:14our real GDP which is 350 we multiply by
- 00:36:18a hundred that gives us a GDP deflator
- 00:36:22of 171 and then in 2003 our nominal GDP
- 00:36:29is 1200 divided by our real GDP of 500
- 00:36:34multiplied by 100 that gives you a GDP
- 00:36:38deflator of 240 so there's what our GDP
- 00:36:43deflator looks like in each year what we
- 00:36:47need to do is think about what the GDP
- 00:36:50deflator tells us how do we interpret it
- 00:36:53the GDP deflator is a price index let's
- 00:36:57just write that up here it's a price
- 00:36:58index and the way that you use a price
- 00:37:04index is that it tells you how much
- 00:37:07prices are changing okay so the GDP
- 00:37:10deflator tells us what's happening to
- 00:37:12the overall level of prices from one
- 00:37:15year to the next the way that you
- 00:37:18interpret the
- 00:37:18this is if the GDP deflator goes from
- 00:37:23100 to 171 so if we're thinking about
- 00:37:26the change in prices from 2001 to 2002
- 00:37:33it's telling us that prices changed by
- 00:37:3671 percent there was a 71 percent
- 00:37:39increase in price level from 2001 to
- 00:37:432002 if we thought about 2001 to 2003
- 00:37:53then this tells us that there was a 140
- 00:37:58percent increase in the price level from
- 00:38:032001 to 2003 so if you're starting with
- 00:38:10the base year and moving to any other
- 00:38:12year that you can just subtract the base
- 00:38:15year number 100 from whatever number
- 00:38:19you're comparing to 171 minus 100 would
- 00:38:23be 71 that tells you you've got 71
- 00:38:25percent inflation let's talk about how
- 00:38:30to do it if we were going from 2002 to
- 00:38:332003 because now neither one of them are
- 00:38:36100 let's talk for just a second about
- 00:38:39calculating a percent change so a
- 00:38:42percent change will come back and just
- 00:38:46briefly review this in the video where
- 00:38:50we talk about the CPI but a percent
- 00:38:52change the way you calculate the percent
- 00:38:56change in anything is to look at how
- 00:38:58much it changed by how much it changed
- 00:39:02that's your numerator and divided by the
- 00:39:08starting point and then multiplied by
- 00:39:14100
- 00:39:18so let's do that for 2001 to 2002 okay
- 00:39:23so if we had 2001 to 2002 our numerator
- 00:39:31let's write it this way the percent
- 00:39:33change is going to be how much it
- 00:39:38changed by well it changed by 71 we
- 00:39:43would take 171 minus 100 that's how much
- 00:39:49it changed by we're gonna divide by the
- 00:39:53starting point which is 100 and then we
- 00:39:56multiply by 100 that gives you 71% so if
- 00:40:01you calculate the percent change from
- 00:40:04one seven from 100 to 171 and you use
- 00:40:10the way the normal way of calculating a
- 00:40:12percent change you get seventy one
- 00:40:14percent so you could this is kind of a
- 00:40:15long way as long as your first year is
- 00:40:19the base year you can just use that
- 00:40:21little trick of knowing that that's
- 00:40:23going to be seventy one percent but if
- 00:40:26we're going from 2002 to 2003 let's do
- 00:40:30that one real quick 2002 to 2003 if we
- 00:40:35calculate the percent change their
- 00:40:38percent change then it's going to be two
- 00:40:44hundred and forty minus one seventy one
- 00:40:52we're going to divide by where we
- 00:40:54started just one seventy one and
- 00:40:56multiplied by a hundred and you can see
- 00:41:02that that's not going to be equal to the
- 00:41:04difference between 171 and 240 okay so
- 00:41:09you have to be careful if you're if
- 00:41:12you're comparing two years and one of
- 00:41:14them is not the beta neither one of them
- 00:41:16are the base year the first one's not
- 00:41:18the base year base year then you have to
- 00:41:19calculate your percent change if the
- 00:41:22first year is the base year you can just
- 00:41:24look at how much it changed by so that's
- 00:41:27how we would interpret what the GDP
- 00:41:30deflator tells us
- 00:41:32telling us essentially the inflation
- 00:41:34rate it's telling us how much the level
- 00:41:36of prices has changed let's clear this
- 00:41:41off and then we'll talk about another
- 00:41:42way to think about this GDP deflator
- 00:41:44I'll explain what the word GDP deflator
- 00:41:48that phrase actually means so let's
- 00:41:50clear this off and then we'll take a
- 00:41:51look at that let's talk for just a
- 00:41:54second about where the term GDP deflator
- 00:41:56comes from let's look at the definition
- 00:41:59so the GDP deflator is calculated by
- 00:42:06taking nominal GDP dividing by real GDP
- 00:42:12and then we've got that 100 out there
- 00:42:15that's how you calculate the GDP
- 00:42:18deflator well if I simply switch the
- 00:42:21location of these two terms I can
- 00:42:24rewrite this algebraically the same way
- 00:42:27this way real GDP let's write that out
- 00:42:30real GDP is equal to nominal GDP divided
- 00:42:41by the GDP deflator multiplied by 100
- 00:42:51so you can see that what the deflator
- 00:42:54does if you've got nominal GDP and you
- 00:42:58divide nominal GDP by that deflator and
- 00:43:01then multiply by the hundred it it sucks
- 00:43:04out the effect of changes in prices
- 00:43:07the problem with nominal GDP is it's
- 00:43:10inflated by changes in prices as well as
- 00:43:13changes in quantity of output so the
- 00:43:16deflator simply deflates nominal GDP
- 00:43:19down to real GDP so hopefully that gives
- 00:43:22you some idea of why we call it the
- 00:43:24deflator if you start with nominal
- 00:43:27divided by the deflator then what you're
- 00:43:30left with is real GDP which is what
- 00:43:32we're really interested in real GDP
- 00:43:35we're really interested in how many
- 00:43:37icecream cones we can buy it really
- 00:43:40doesn't matter what our nominal income
- 00:43:42is and the nominal price of an ice-cream
- 00:43:45cone what we want to know is well at the
- 00:43:47end of the day how many icecream cones
- 00:43:48can we buy if you look at at real GDP
- 00:43:54and how it's changed over time what you
- 00:43:58tend to see that is that at least in the
- 00:44:00u.s. since around say the mid sixties
- 00:44:07since the mid 60s
- 00:44:10we've had let's say somewhere around
- 00:44:15three percent growth and what that
- 00:44:24results in is that GDP has approximately
- 00:44:28quadrupled since the mid 60s in the
- 00:44:32United States in other words real
- 00:44:34incomes have quadrupled within just a
- 00:44:38few generations that's that's fairly
- 00:44:40remarkable in terms of how much the
- 00:44:43standard of living has risen over time
- 00:44:47what we see is that growth is not
- 00:44:53constant there are some years when it's
- 00:44:55higher some years when it's lower some
- 00:44:58years when it can turn negative so there
- 00:45:03are years when we have expect
- 00:45:04Anson's years when we have recessions
- 00:45:08but if you look at kind of the average
- 00:45:10level it's been somewhere in that
- 00:45:12neighborhood one useful thing that at
- 00:45:17the rule of 72 the rule of 72 simply
- 00:45:24says that you can take 72 divide it by
- 00:45:28the growth rate and that tells you
- 00:45:31approximately the number of years before
- 00:45:34a dollar amount will double so if we've
- 00:45:37got three percent growth you can take 72
- 00:45:40divided by three and that'll tell you
- 00:45:43the number of years before real GDP is
- 00:45:47going to double and you can see that if
- 00:45:49we had one percent growth 72 divided by
- 00:45:531 gives you 72 at one percent growth it
- 00:45:58would take 72 years before standards of
- 00:46:01living doubled at two percent growth if
- 00:46:06we took 72 divided by 2 that's what 36
- 00:46:11then it would take only 36 years for
- 00:46:14standards of living to double 3% growth
- 00:46:1772 divided by 3 you can see that it's
- 00:46:20taking fewer and fewer years for
- 00:46:23standards of living to double here's
- 00:46:25what that means the difference between
- 00:46:281% growth and 2% growth is not 1% the
- 00:46:33difference between 1% growth and 2%
- 00:46:36growth is a hundred percent growth more
- 00:46:39growth at 2% then there isn't one
- 00:46:42percent so small changes in the growth
- 00:46:46rate have huge implications on how long
- 00:46:50it takes for standards of living to
- 00:46:51double so don't be fooled into thinking
- 00:46:54that uh well okay you know if we have
- 00:46:57some policy that's going to reduce the
- 00:47:00growth rate of real GDP by by only 1%
- 00:47:03that's not that big of a deal it's just
- 00:47:041% that's huge
- 00:47:07ok and we'll talk about that later on
- 00:47:08and in other videos we'll talk about
- 00:47:10what influences the rate of growth of
- 00:47:13GDP for now we'll leave that right there
- 00:47:18let's talk about a definition so if you
- 00:47:21have to I mentioned the word recession a
- 00:47:24recession has a technical definition
- 00:47:27it's two consecutive quarters of
- 00:47:29declining GDP okay two consecutive
- 00:47:33quarters six months it's typically a
- 00:47:36comp accompanied by other things that we
- 00:47:39don't like to have like rising
- 00:47:41unemployment and increased bankruptcies
- 00:47:45and falling profits for firms we'll talk
- 00:47:49more about that later on let's finish
- 00:47:55this up by talking about things that are
- 00:47:58ignored by GDP so GDP is a good place to
- 00:48:02start and there are lots of people that
- 00:48:11will criticize economists for focusing
- 00:48:13on GDP and maybe some of that criticism
- 00:48:17is warranted but economists will always
- 00:48:20point out that's not by any means the
- 00:48:25the full story I mean their GDP is
- 00:48:28designed to be a measure of the income
- 00:48:31of everybody in the economy but that
- 00:48:33doesn't mean that that's all that an
- 00:48:35economist would look at to gauge the
- 00:48:37health of an economy so let's talk about
- 00:48:40some of the things that are ignored by
- 00:48:42GDP it ignores a whole variety of things
- 00:48:45that it's just simply not designed to
- 00:48:47measure so it ignores things like the
- 00:48:50quality of education so if we're
- 00:48:56thinking about looking at GDP of an
- 00:48:59economy and GDP is high but the quality
- 00:49:02of the education system is low and
- 00:49:04that's something we would need to take
- 00:49:06into consideration it ignores the the
- 00:49:10health of people say specifically health
- 00:49:13of children so we would never advocate
- 00:49:19just focusing on increasing real GDP at
- 00:49:22the expense of the health of people in
- 00:49:24the economy GDP all other things we
- 00:49:29would rather have GDP be higher
- 00:49:31then lower all other things equal but
- 00:49:35that's not saying that doesn't mean that
- 00:49:38doesn't imply that economists don't care
- 00:49:40about things like this GDP simply does
- 00:49:44not take that into consideration it
- 00:49:45doesn't have anything to tell us about
- 00:49:48say the quality of the culture or say
- 00:49:57the quality of the environment so if we
- 00:50:10were we would not advocate for policies
- 00:50:12that the increased GDP at the expense of
- 00:50:16a lot of environmental degradation it
- 00:50:22ignores let's say equity it's not
- 00:50:28designed to measure that so when we
- 00:50:29looked at GDP per capita and it was
- 00:50:32roughly 56,000 dollars in 2015 that
- 00:50:36doesn't tell us anything about who has
- 00:50:38big shares of the pie and who has a
- 00:50:41small share of the pie so that's the
- 00:50:43discussion that we can have we need to
- 00:50:45think about that and think about
- 00:50:47policies that might help people that for
- 00:50:49whatever reason have a small share of
- 00:50:51the pie it doesn't tell us anything
- 00:50:54about activity that doesn't take place
- 00:50:56in a market activity outside of a market
- 00:51:02let's just say outside of markets the
- 00:51:06one that I'm thinking of in particular
- 00:51:07here would be same activity like raising
- 00:51:13a household raising kids it would get
- 00:51:16counted if kids are going to daycare but
- 00:51:18let's suppose you have a parent that's
- 00:51:20stayin at home raising kids that is a
- 00:51:23very productive thing to be doing it's
- 00:51:26probably I would argue one of the more
- 00:51:28important things that that people do is
- 00:51:31to raise their kids and yet because that
- 00:51:34takes place outside of a market that
- 00:51:36kind of activity is ignored by GDP and
- 00:51:39so we just have to keep that in mind we
- 00:51:42can look at the number that we get when
- 00:51:44we
- 00:51:45per capita GDP but we always have to
- 00:51:48remind ourselves that it's not telling
- 00:51:51us the full picture it's it's telling us
- 00:51:53one little piece of the picture and we
- 00:51:55have to look at a whole lot of other
- 00:51:57things before we start making a judgment
- 00:52:00about whether or not the economy is in
- 00:52:02good shape or bad shape but that's
- 00:52:04really what we're doing in this class is
- 00:52:05we're thinking about different ways of
- 00:52:09looking at what what are the things that
- 00:52:10we should look at if we're trying to
- 00:52:13figure out the health of the economy and
- 00:52:15this is just the first piece of that
- 00:52:17puzzle we'll talk about other pieces in
- 00:52:19later videos I'll see you then
- 00:52:29you
- GDP
- economic health
- nominal GDP
- real GDP
- expenditure
- income
- market value
- government spending
- net exports
- components of GDP