Marvel Rivals’ Matchmaking: The Deepest Investigation You’ll Ever See
概要
TLDRThis investigative video delves into the matchmaking system of Marvel Rivals, examining perceptions of whether it is rigged or not. The speaker traces the history of online game matchmaking, from simple lobby systems to advanced algorithms like skill-based matchmaking (SBMM) and engagement optimized matchmaking (EOMM). Player experiences are analyzed, along with research papers detailing matchmaking processes, revealing how systems might nudge win rates to promote engagement rather than pure competition. The conclusion indicates that while matchmaking incorporates strategic elements to enhance player satisfaction, it may sometimes feel against the principles of fair competition.
収穫
- 🕹️ Matchmaking has evolved significantly from simple systems to advanced algorithms.
- 🏆 EOMM prioritizes engagement, potentially over strict fairness.
- 📈 Many players believe their win rates are manipulated to average around 50%.
- 🔍 Research and data suggest the presence of complex factors in matchmaking nuances.
- 🎮 Transparency in matchmaking algorithms can alleviate player suspicions.
タイムライン
- 00:00:00 - 00:05:00
In this introduction, the speaker discusses their journey in Marvel Rivals, experiencing both winning and losing streaks. They ponder whether these experiences are due to bad luck or a manipulated matchmaking system and mention their extensive research into online gaming matchmaking algorithms.
- 00:05:00 - 00:10:00
The speaker reflects on the history of matchmaking in online games, explaining the early days where fair matches weren't prioritized. They introduce the concept of skill rating systems inspired by chess and the evolution of matchmaking algorithms, highlighting the improvements made to create more balanced matches.
- 00:10:00 - 00:15:00
The discussion continues with the evolution of skill-based matchmaking systems (SBMM) and introduces TrueSkill as a notable development that aimed to create fair fights in games. Players were matched based on their demonstrated skill, avoiding mismatched skill levels.
- 00:15:00 - 00:20:00
The speaker notes that, as the gaming landscape evolved, developer focus shifted toward player retention. They introduce Engagement Optimized Matchmaking (EOMM), emphasizing that the aim was not just fair competition but to keep players engaged in the game.
- 00:20:00 - 00:25:00
They explain how EOMM leverages player data such as churn probability and dynamic adjustments to maximize engagement, likening the matchmaking system to a casino dealer who may tweak outcomes subtly to maintain player interest instead of strictly adhering to skill-based principles.
- 00:25:00 - 00:30:00
The speaker highlights how major game companies, including Activision, have also sought to optimize matchmaking not only for fair play but to encourage player spending through strategic pairings. Marvel Rivals, being a newer game, is introduced as having a research-focused matchmaking design influenced by EOMM principles.
- 00:30:00 - 00:35:00
The speaker posits that Marvel Rivals may not follow pure SBMM, but an adaptation called 'opt match' that seeks to maximize player satisfaction, balancing skill parity with engagement metrics. Details about further research into matchmaking dynamics are set to follow.
- 00:35:00 - 00:40:00
They delve into the specifics of the 'opt match' system, explaining its two-phase approach: offline learning for analyzing player performance and online matchmaking planning that considers player and hero dynamics to create satisfying matchups.
- 00:40:00 - 00:45:00
As the talk progresses, they describe how the matchmaking system attempts to create balanced teams by analyzing player history and gameplay styles, aiming to enhance both competitiveness and enjoyment of matches without predetermined outcomes.
- 00:45:00 - 00:50:00
The speaker shares community feedback on matchmaking perceptions, detailing claims of a 'rigged' system as players note an unnaturally consistent 50% win rate, feelings of being paired with weaker teammates, and theories of hidden mechanics to influence game outcomes.
- 00:50:00 - 00:55:37
Finally, the video examines the criticisms of Marvel Rivals' matchmaking including perceived unfairness and frustration from high-skilled players who feel that engagement-driven designs hinder pure competitive experiences, posing questions about player transparency and expectations for future online gaming.
マインドマップ
ビデオQ&A
What is engagement optimized matchmaking (EOMM)?
EOMM is a matchmaking approach that prioritizes player engagement over strictly fair matches, aiming to keep players interested and playing longer.
Why do players feel the matchmaking is rigged?
Players often report that their win rates gravitate around 50%, experiencing abrupt winning and losing streaks, which contributes to the feeling of manipulation.
How has matchmaking evolved in online gaming?
Matchmaking has evolved from simple lobby systems to complex algorithms like SBMM and EOMM, aiming for fairer and more engaging matches.
What factors does Marvel Rivals' matchmaking consider?
It considers player skill, recent performance, team composition, and engagement metrics to optimize match balance.
Does overpowering a player or using bots affect matchmaking outcomes?
There is no concrete evidence that artificial adjustments like nerfing players' damage or including bots are used to influence match outcomes.
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- 00:00:00imagine logging into Marvel Rivals you
- 00:00:02got your chippies you got your Cola you
- 00:00:05got everything going and you know what
- 00:00:08you're crushing match after match
- 00:00:10Victory after Victory the streak is real
- 00:00:14but just when you're riding High the
- 00:00:17tide turns suddenly you find yourself
- 00:00:20teamed with a bunch of noobs and your
- 00:00:22opponents they seem like freaking
- 00:00:25experts was it bad luck or was it
- 00:00:27something planned this roller coaster of
- 00:00:31emotions is not organic some players
- 00:00:34insist it's engineered in this
- 00:00:36investigative Deep dive that I have
- 00:00:39created this monstrosity of research
- 00:00:42we're going to unravel the mystery I'm
- 00:00:44going to take you on a journey buddy
- 00:00:46we're first going to Journey Through the
- 00:00:48history of online game matchmaking and
- 00:00:51then we're going to discover how modern
- 00:00:53algorithms like eomm and opt match don't
- 00:00:56worry those things are going to make
- 00:00:57sense work behind the scenes and why
- 00:01:00many players feel the system is stacking
- 00:01:03the deck and hey for the last two weeks
- 00:01:05I've been going blind on research papers
- 00:01:08and technical things and some bits of
- 00:01:11code at some point and I've really
- 00:01:13intended to make a very complete well
- 00:01:16researched wellth thought out video here
- 00:01:19so your likes and comments and
- 00:01:20subscriptions are deeply appreciated as
- 00:01:22you can see I have less than 1,000
- 00:01:24subscribers and yet I'm putting in all
- 00:01:26this effort and it makes me feel like an
- 00:01:28idiot a little bit but at the same time
- 00:01:31couldn't catch me dead just putting on
- 00:01:32gameplay for 40 minutes and talking like
- 00:01:34an idiot so if you want to reward me for
- 00:01:37my effort here you know how to do it all
- 00:01:39right let's jump into the video history
- 00:01:42time see I thought that to understand
- 00:01:45Marvel Rivals as matchmaking I really
- 00:01:47needed to first see how matchmaking and
- 00:01:50online gaming evolved and and how it all
- 00:01:53started and you know what it wasn't
- 00:01:55always Guided by these complex crazy
- 00:01:58algorithms and that's sounds right when
- 00:02:00I was playing Counter Strike as a kid I
- 00:02:02don't think there was much behind the
- 00:02:03scenes so in the early days of online
- 00:02:06gaming matchmaking really just meant
- 00:02:10just a simple Lobby or a server where
- 00:02:13anybody could join and that's how I
- 00:02:15remember it that's what I grew up on
- 00:02:17that's probably what you grew up on
- 00:02:18we're both old so you remember it it was
- 00:02:21the Wild West man sometimes you're going
- 00:02:23to be facing Pros way above your level
- 00:02:26and just accept the loss and other times
- 00:02:28you're going to be running people over
- 00:02:30because it's just a noob that joined
- 00:02:32there was a push for fair matches right
- 00:02:34so this push led to skill rating systems
- 00:02:38a really good example that I found is
- 00:02:40the ELO rating system from chess of all
- 00:02:42things which inspired early game
- 00:02:44rankings I thought that was pretty cool
- 00:02:46so by 2004 the developers of Halo 2 were
- 00:02:50messing around with the new Bayesian
- 00:02:52rating called true skill to improve upon
- 00:02:55ELO and I think that's where it all
- 00:02:57starts see true skill aimed to Qui
- 00:02:59quickly estimate a player's skill and
- 00:03:02then match them up with others of
- 00:03:04similar ability making the matches a bit
- 00:03:06more balanced throughout uh 2000s and
- 00:03:082000s and 10s a lot of competitive games
- 00:03:11like League of
- 00:03:13Legends ad Dota 2 adopted such
- 00:03:17skill-based matchmaking systems by the
- 00:03:19way this skill-based matchmaking thing
- 00:03:21it's just we're going to call it sbmm
- 00:03:24because that abbreviation is going to
- 00:03:25show up a lot later in the video so just
- 00:03:27remember it skill-based matchmaking say
- 00:03:30it with me and now this spmm it led to
- 00:03:33this matchmaking rating or it was often
- 00:03:36tied to it which is MMR which is
- 00:03:37probably something you're familiar with
- 00:03:39and that rises with your wins and losses
- 00:03:42your MMR right got me skill best
- 00:03:44matchmaking it takes MMR they do this or
- 00:03:49maybe this and then you got true skill
- 00:03:51that's basically what it was Story Time
- 00:03:54picture a 2007 Halo 3 Lobby back in the
- 00:03:59peak of delicious racism the game's spmm
- 00:04:04quietly crunches numbers like a coach
- 00:04:06figuring out which players to let play
- 00:04:09so if you're a sharpshooter in the last
- 00:04:11games and you had perfect aim and you
- 00:04:12just killed everybody the system is then
- 00:04:14going to bump up your invisible skill
- 00:04:16number a bit and then next match it's
- 00:04:19going to try to seat you at the table
- 00:04:20with players of comparable aim and the
- 00:04:23goal of all of that was really simple
- 00:04:25just fair fights so at its score sbm M
- 00:04:30treated matchmaking like a chess
- 00:04:32tournament so you're going to match
- 00:04:34Grand masters with grand Masters and
- 00:04:36you're going to match novices with
- 00:04:37novices pretty simple but as online
- 00:04:40gaming grew and expanded a new question
- 00:04:43came up what if Fair fights are not the
- 00:04:46only goal so naturally game companies
- 00:04:49started to notice something player
- 00:04:52retention you know how long you keep
- 00:04:54playing is a fragile thing and it kind
- 00:04:58of makes sense you know a perfectly Fair
- 00:05:00system might inadvertently cause some
- 00:05:02players to quit so then of course
- 00:05:05developers started to Wonder Could
- 00:05:07matchmaking be tuned not just for
- 00:05:09fairness but to keep players engaged see
- 00:05:12this led to the rise of Engagement
- 00:05:14optimized matchmaking which was the
- 00:05:16Natural Evolution from sbmm to this or
- 00:05:20eomm engagement optimized matchmaking
- 00:05:22see in 2017 a team at Electronic Arts
- 00:05:25published a paper titled eomm engagement
- 00:05:29optimized match making framework it was
- 00:05:32a really a watershed moment the paper
- 00:05:34suggested that perfectly Fair matches
- 00:05:36are not always the best for keeping
- 00:05:38players hooked instead of only using
- 00:05:41skill the eomm framework added new
- 00:05:44ingredients to the matchmaking recipe
- 00:05:46the first one was churn probability this
- 00:05:48is an estimate of How likely you are to
- 00:05:50quit playing if you have a bad or good
- 00:05:53experience the second one were Dynamic
- 00:05:55adjustments so the system could even
- 00:05:58change its objective which which is nuts
- 00:06:00the researchers then noted that they
- 00:06:02could retune the matchmaking goal to
- 00:06:05maximize other things like playtime
- 00:06:08retention or even spending which is when
- 00:06:10it gets real creepy to dumb this down a
- 00:06:13little bit so it's a little bit easier
- 00:06:15to digest eomm was basically matchmaking
- 00:06:18meeting data science for the first time
- 00:06:21ever so here's here's how I like
- 00:06:22thinking about it I imagine the the
- 00:06:24matchmaking system as as a casino dealer
- 00:06:27who doesn't just deal cards randomly but
- 00:06:29also keeps an eye on every player's mood
- 00:06:31so if for example you're getting upset
- 00:06:33and might leave the table the dealer
- 00:06:36then might just tweak the next round in
- 00:06:38your favor a little bit not enough to be
- 00:06:40obvious but enough to keep you in the
- 00:06:42game or if you're winning too much and
- 00:06:44you're starting to get bored maybe the
- 00:06:46next round he gives you a bit more
- 00:06:48challenge so it's not I don't think it's
- 00:06:49outright cheating the cards are still
- 00:06:52you know dealt from the same deck but
- 00:06:54the order of the cards might be
- 00:06:55influenced by another motive keep the
- 00:06:58game going that's kind of what's going
- 00:07:00on here so around the same time other
- 00:07:02gaming Giants are starting to wake up
- 00:07:04and are starting to explore very similar
- 00:07:06ideas in fact Activision they made Call
- 00:07:09of Duty filed a patent for a matchmaking
- 00:07:11system that could encourage
- 00:07:13microtransactions by pairing players
- 00:07:16strategically
- 00:07:18wow sounds like Activision to be honest
- 00:07:21so here here's how it worked for example
- 00:07:23they'll be matching a newbie with a
- 00:07:26veteran who has a bunch of Premium cool
- 00:07:28gear and then hope that the newb is
- 00:07:31going to be enticed to buy that gear
- 00:07:33what the [ __ ] the industry clearly was
- 00:07:37interested in matchmaking as more than
- 00:07:39just Fair competition it was becoming a
- 00:07:42tool to drive player Behavior enter
- 00:07:44Marvel Rivals see the game is still very
- 00:07:47very young as of the making of this
- 00:07:49video we're in season 1 so it's still a
- 00:07:51baby and the game came onto the scene a
- 00:07:54few months ago with really fun hero
- 00:07:56battles a great IP fantastic animation
- 00:07:59and sound design and This Promise of a
- 00:08:02really fun competitive team play but
- 00:08:05behind the Marvel heroes is a developer
- 00:08:07with a very research oriented approach
- 00:08:10to matchmaking and that's net e their
- 00:08:12involvement is really crucial because
- 00:08:15they have been at the Forefront of
- 00:08:16implementing engagement based
- 00:08:18matchmaking systems in their games
- 00:08:20Guided by research like opt match and
- 00:08:22end match which we're going to talk
- 00:08:23about in a second now let's break down
- 00:08:26what I already know and suspect about
- 00:08:28Marvel rivals is matchmaking the very
- 00:08:30first thing is that Marvel Rivals does
- 00:08:32not appear to have a traditional you
- 00:08:35know pure sbmm where only skill matters
- 00:08:40instead a lot of evidence suggests that
- 00:08:41it uses a system influenced by eomm
- 00:08:45principles potentially it's an in-house
- 00:08:47variant that they call opt match then
- 00:08:49the goal of such a system is just to
- 00:08:52balance matches in a way that optimizes
- 00:08:55and maximizes player satisfaction and
- 00:08:57engagement not just skill skill parody
- 00:09:00which is very different next we're about
- 00:09:02to get nerdy and um I I really like
- 00:09:04learning about these things but we're
- 00:09:06going to talk about kind of the science
- 00:09:08behind the scenes eomm opt match and
- 00:09:11things like end match they'll become
- 00:09:13clear as as I talk so to to roll the
- 00:09:16tape back a bit in August 2020 net e
- 00:09:19researchers published op matched
- 00:09:21optimizing matchmaking via modeling the
- 00:09:23high order interactions on the arena
- 00:09:26what this was was essentially um an
- 00:09:28engagement oriented matchmaking system
- 00:09:31but with a really interesting twist it
- 00:09:33still valued Fair close games as a route
- 00:09:35to happy players but opt match also
- 00:09:38introduced a two-phase approach number
- 00:09:40one was offline learning so what it does
- 00:09:42is that it analyzes a ton of game data
- 00:09:45to understand things like composition
- 00:09:48and player performance things like that
- 00:09:50the paper then describes features like
- 00:09:52hero to VEC and player to VC basically
- 00:09:55learning the characteristics of Heroes
- 00:09:57and players so things like who works
- 00:10:00well with whom uh which Heroes synergize
- 00:10:03so Iron Man amplifying Hulk or one
- 00:10:07character covering another one's
- 00:10:08weakness you know also it thinks about
- 00:10:10how does this player usually perform and
- 00:10:13what heroes are they best with so that's
- 00:10:15the first one the second one is online
- 00:10:18matchmaking planning so with all of this
- 00:10:20knowledge when you hit find match the
- 00:10:22system isn't just you know randomly
- 00:10:24throwing six players into two teams and
- 00:10:26calling it a day no it's thinking it's
- 00:10:28evaluating like thousands of possible
- 00:10:31team combinations among players of
- 00:10:33pretty much the same rank so it's as if
- 00:10:36the matchmaking is playing like a giant
- 00:10:39game of Tetris fitting different pieces
- 00:10:41together which are actually the players
- 00:10:43into two balanced teams yeah it uses a
- 00:10:45utility function which is essentially a
- 00:10:47score for how satisfying a matchup is
- 00:10:50predicted to be for each player and then
- 00:10:52tries to maximize that if putting you
- 00:10:55and player B on the same team let's say
- 00:10:58because your favorite heres compliment
- 00:11:00each other or something leads to a
- 00:11:01higher satisfaction score the system
- 00:11:04leans that way however if grouping I'll
- 00:11:07just give you a bad example but grouping
- 00:11:09too many tanks or too many supports of
- 00:11:11the same role makes the team worse then
- 00:11:13it's going to avoid that so op matches
- 00:11:15philosophy in 2020 was still Fair
- 00:11:18matches equals happy players at this
- 00:11:21stage it wasn't you know rigging
- 00:11:23outcomes it was trying to make matches
- 00:11:25as fair and as fun as possible by really
- 00:11:28smartly considering hero Dynamics and
- 00:11:31player play Styles which I think is
- 00:11:32pretty cool I'll give you a metaphor
- 00:11:34here to help you digest this a bit more
- 00:11:36it's like a sports coach who not only
- 00:11:38matches teams by skill but also thinks
- 00:11:41okay this team has all Strikers and no
- 00:11:43goalkeepers so that's going to be
- 00:11:45pointless and not fun so let's swap it
- 00:11:48around a bit to balance roles however
- 00:11:50later developments show that net ease
- 00:11:52didn't just stopped there by December
- 00:11:542020 the same researchers put out a
- 00:11:57GitHub simulation testing different m
- 00:11:59matchmaking algorithms including eomm
- 00:12:02it's way too nerdy it didn't make any
- 00:12:03sense but it was pretty cool to see so
- 00:12:05at a game developers conference in 2021
- 00:12:07or GDC net e detailed how they started
- 00:12:11integrating this churn prediction and
- 00:12:13player streaks into the equation and
- 00:12:15this is where things get intriguing and
- 00:12:18kind of controversial I think so they
- 00:12:21introduced this concept of player
- 00:12:23utility that included not just fairness
- 00:12:26but also match duration cu time and and
- 00:12:30recent win loss streaks for example if
- 00:12:32you've been on a losing streak the
- 00:12:34system is going to take that into
- 00:12:35account your utility for example how
- 00:12:38happy you'll be in the next match might
- 00:12:40be lower because you're frustrated so
- 00:12:41it's just going to compute all of that
- 00:12:43then the matchmaking might respond by
- 00:12:46trying to give you a better experience
- 00:12:48the next round to keep your spirits up
- 00:12:51more specifically that could mean aiming
- 00:12:53for a match that's predicted to be close
- 00:12:55and exciting or ensuring to get you into
- 00:12:58the game quicker or you know maybe
- 00:13:00balancing the teams in such a way that
- 00:13:02you have a fair shot despite recent
- 00:13:05losses in that GDC talk one slide
- 00:13:07specifically contained a really
- 00:13:09interesting line give tiny advantages to
- 00:13:12the desperate or fatigued players during
- 00:13:15matchmaking if possible for example
- 00:13:18choose the win rate of 51% instead of
- 00:13:2049% matchmaking proposals for those
- 00:13:23players this basically implies that if
- 00:13:26the system has a choice between two
- 00:13:29possible matchups one where it predicts
- 00:13:31you have a 49% chance to win and one
- 00:13:35where you have predicts you have a 51%
- 00:13:37chance to win and you've been on a rough
- 00:13:39losing streak so by by their definition
- 00:13:41you're maybe desperate or fatigued it
- 00:13:43will gently nudge you towards the 51%
- 00:13:47scenario in other words it's becoming a
- 00:13:50slight kind of hidden handicap in your
- 00:13:52favor just to help you out on the flip
- 00:13:54side it also made me think what about
- 00:13:56winning streaks so the research doesn't
- 00:13:59really like explicitly say give
- 00:14:02disadvantages to players on winning
- 00:14:04streaks however if the system is always
- 00:14:07nudging losing streak players upward a
- 00:14:10bit then you know the logical
- 00:14:12consequence is that if you are on a
- 00:14:14winning streak you might lose that
- 00:14:17gentle nudge makes sense right so you're
- 00:14:19essentially left to face the full force
- 00:14:21of competition or maybe even you know
- 00:14:24given a slightly tougher matchup if
- 00:14:26others are being boosted and and this
- 00:14:28could naturally result in your streak
- 00:14:29coming to an end sooner or later not
- 00:14:32because the game hates you but because
- 00:14:34it just stops giving you training wheels
- 00:14:37so net EAS continued to refine this
- 00:14:40approach time and time again in a 2024
- 00:14:42paper they very frankly state that the
- 00:14:45traditional Fair matchmaking you know
- 00:14:47the sbmm thing dividing players strictly
- 00:14:50by skill tiers is not always good for
- 00:14:53player engagement they cite a couple of
- 00:14:55Prior works like the 2017 eomm paper
- 00:14:58that we talked about earlier which
- 00:15:00showed that just focusing on Fair
- 00:15:02matches isn't sufficient for keeping
- 00:15:03players hooked this new approach doubled
- 00:15:06down on engagement mix it up to maximize
- 00:15:09fun and retention is the general
- 00:15:11strategy one analogy that was given by a
- 00:15:13net e researcher was even if you have 12
- 00:15:16players of similar skill you don't
- 00:15:19always make two teams of equal skill
- 00:15:21maybe you know you mix High skill and
- 00:15:24low skill players on each side in some
- 00:15:27scenarios if that pattern leads a better
- 00:15:29overw engagement but they found that a
- 00:15:31bit of variety occasionally playing with
- 00:15:34or against someone notably better or
- 00:15:37notably worse than you could keep things
- 00:15:40interesting so maybe perhaps that
- 00:15:42Underdog upset or you know you face
- 00:15:45someone really good and you're learning
- 00:15:47from a really skilled teammate or
- 00:15:48opponent maybe those things make the
- 00:15:50sessions bit more memorable enjoyable so
- 00:15:53rivals' matchmaking is born from this
- 00:15:55lineage of research which I thought is
- 00:15:58kind of cool first of all it likely
- 00:16:00groups players by their General skill
- 00:16:02brackets so a beginner is not going to
- 00:16:04get matched directly against some top
- 00:16:06tier veteran in a normal scenario that
- 00:16:08just would be unfair the second thing is
- 00:16:11within that broad skill group it's going
- 00:16:13to consider a variety of factors so
- 00:16:15things like team composition um
- 00:16:18predicted fairness and probably your
- 00:16:21recent performances an engagement
- 00:16:23metrics too also it it might
- 00:16:25occasionally and this happened to me
- 00:16:27create matches where one team has a
- 00:16:30carry player like a star player and the
- 00:16:32other team doesn't and then it balances
- 00:16:35that by giving the star player weaker
- 00:16:37teammates and the other team solid
- 00:16:40mid-level players and it tries to keep
- 00:16:43your win rate around a pretty moderate
- 00:16:46level and it's not doing that by forcing
- 00:16:48outcomes I don't think it can but by
- 00:16:51dynamically adjusting the challenges
- 00:16:53that you face a consistently winning
- 00:16:56player will be moved up against
- 00:16:59opposition or maybe even given less
- 00:17:01backup while a struggling player might
- 00:17:03catch a break with easier opposition or
- 00:17:05maybe some more support so over many
- 00:17:07games this feels like some invisible
- 00:17:10hand that is ensuring that most players
- 00:17:13hover roughly around 50% wins so in the
- 00:17:16Marvel Rivals Community a common refrain
- 00:17:19that you hear is the matchmakings rigged
- 00:17:22but what do players really mean by that
- 00:17:25and why do they feel it is what I was
- 00:17:27wondering constantly so I went out and I
- 00:17:29went to forums typically from Steam and
- 00:17:32Reddit and other places and and just
- 00:17:34read through threads and here's here's
- 00:17:36what people say the first one is that
- 00:17:3850/50 win rate feeling players like you
- 00:17:41and me often notice that just no matter
- 00:17:44how well you play your win rate just
- 00:17:47tends to gravitate around 50% so for
- 00:17:50every hot streak where they just want a
- 00:17:52bunch of games a cold streak follows and
- 00:17:55it's this feeling that it's almost
- 00:17:57looming right you're playing you're
- 00:17:58killing it it's going great and you're
- 00:18:00like crap some something's coming the
- 00:18:02players have voiced that the system
- 00:18:04seems to kind of give you wins and then
- 00:18:07suddenly throw you into guaranteed
- 00:18:08losses creating a really strong
- 00:18:10oscillating pattern and in in different
- 00:18:13forums some of the players claim that
- 00:18:15the game tries to satisfy everyone with
- 00:18:17a 48 to 52% win loss ratio regardless of
- 00:18:21whether you're a noob or a pro it can
- 00:18:24certainly feel that way and I know we've
- 00:18:26all been there you dominate a few rounds
- 00:18:28in a few matches and then the next
- 00:18:30matches your team is just mysteriously
- 00:18:33uncoordinated or the other guys are just
- 00:18:37murderers so it it feels it's as if the
- 00:18:40game is just a rubber band you stretch
- 00:18:42too far ahead and wins and then it just
- 00:18:44snaps you back with defeats from a
- 00:18:46players perspective this can be really
- 00:18:49infuriating like why is the game
- 00:18:51punishing me for winning so in a in a
- 00:18:53traditional sbmm system consistent wins
- 00:18:56would simply mean that you climb to a
- 00:18:58high skill bracket so you'd be facing
- 00:19:00tougher opponents also ideally your
- 00:19:02teammates would also be of higher skill
- 00:19:04too however if Marvel Rivals is indeed
- 00:19:07using engagement optimize matchmaking
- 00:19:10it's not just sliding you up and down uh
- 00:19:12skill ladder it might be actively
- 00:19:14orchestrating the challenge level to
- 00:19:16keep you in that sweet spot of
- 00:19:18Engagement that it's looking for to a
- 00:19:20competitor this feels like just some
- 00:19:22arbitrary ceiling on their success hence
- 00:19:25the feeling of a rigged system ensuring
- 00:19:27you don't win too much the second one is
- 00:19:30uh you know being the Team MVP on a
- 00:19:32losing match this gripe is interesting
- 00:19:34you know why do I always get the bad
- 00:19:36teammates is a question a lot of people
- 00:19:38answer well players who consistently
- 00:19:40perform well say you know somebody in
- 00:19:43the top 500 or someone that's just good
- 00:19:45but still lose matches really are
- 00:19:47starting to suspect that the matchmaking
- 00:19:49is giving them weaker teammates on
- 00:19:51purpose you might have a game where you
- 00:19:54go 15 and two you know with cap which is
- 00:19:58hard to do with cap but two of your
- 00:20:00teammates just barely contribute and are
- 00:20:02basically throwing it's completely
- 00:20:04natural to wonder was I just placed with
- 00:20:07weaker players intentionally some Rivals
- 00:20:10fans believe exactly that that the game
- 00:20:13knowing that you're strong is going to
- 00:20:15pair you with a couple of weaker folks
- 00:20:17just to balance the team's overall power
- 00:20:19and maybe even you know perhaps give
- 00:20:21those weaker players a chance to be
- 00:20:22carried to a close match all of this
- 00:20:25ties back to the research idea of mixing
- 00:20:27skill levels on a team for engagement
- 00:20:30while I do agree that this can create
- 00:20:32some pretty exciting comeback stories
- 00:20:34and it certainly has for me it does also
- 00:20:37mean that as a skilled player you're
- 00:20:40sometimes essentially handicapped by
- 00:20:42your team because of how matchmaking
- 00:20:44works and and that can definitely feel
- 00:20:47like the system is rigged against you
- 00:20:49one Reddit user riy noted that the
- 00:20:52matchmaking creates a full profile of
- 00:20:54your account and attempts to match you
- 00:20:57with teammates that synergize or don't
- 00:21:00based on how it wants to push your games
- 00:21:03so that install loock 215 Spider-Man on
- 00:21:06your team isn't just random chance in
- 00:21:09other words players suspect that the
- 00:21:11algorithm might sometimes deliberately
- 00:21:14give you a teammate who picks a hero
- 00:21:16they're terrible at so that's the
- 00:21:18Spider-Man who gets two kills and dies
- 00:21:2015 times in order to create a particular
- 00:21:23match outcome or experience I know it it
- 00:21:26sounds a little bit conspirator
- 00:21:29but given the complexity of the system
- 00:21:31players are just connecting the dots in
- 00:21:34ways that seem plausible to them next is
- 00:21:36one of my favorite terminologies the
- 00:21:38losers cue and forced losses Beyond just
- 00:21:42statistical balancing some players go
- 00:21:46further and suggest that there's a
- 00:21:48losers Quee and and that's basically a
- 00:21:50hidden state where you enter after a
- 00:21:53certain number of wins where the game
- 00:21:55ensures you lose the next one or few so
- 00:21:58they'll account anecdotes like I won
- 00:22:00five games in a row and then suddenly I
- 00:22:03got three matches in a row with AFK
- 00:22:05teammates or complete beginners on my
- 00:22:07team I could practically predict I was
- 00:22:10due for a loss that's literally what he
- 00:22:11said so it's really hard to prove such
- 00:22:15patterns as anything more than anecdotal
- 00:22:17but the perception is very powerful and
- 00:22:20I I see that the the community's trust
- 00:22:22is you know eroding here and there and
- 00:22:25every tough loss becomes well not a
- 00:22:27learning moment it should be learning
- 00:22:28moment but it starts to become this
- 00:22:30evidence for rigging rivals' eomm system
- 00:22:33is very often accused of manipulating
- 00:22:36streaks on purpose one specific player
- 00:22:38described it as a psychological tug of
- 00:22:41war which I thought was nicely dramatic
- 00:22:44where the game just gives you the high
- 00:22:46of a winning streak and then Yanks it
- 00:22:48away this claim unfortunately does align
- 00:22:51with what we discussed earlier to keep
- 00:22:53players hooked the system might
- 00:22:55orchestrate some ups and downs right
- 00:22:57that's what we talked about however
- 00:23:00players understandably feel that a loss
- 00:23:02isn't fair if it was engineered in any
- 00:23:05way if you believe that you're losing a
- 00:23:07match and that was predestined by the
- 00:23:09algorithm's Unseen hand that's
- 00:23:12essentially the definition of rigging in
- 00:23:14a competitive context and that's what
- 00:23:16people think another one that I was glad
- 00:23:19to see which is the first thing that
- 00:23:21came to mind with all this stuff was the
- 00:23:23lack of transparency or or basically the
- 00:23:25blackbox effect so part of what the
- 00:23:29rigged narrative here is that the
- 00:23:31matchmaking system is a blackbox the
- 00:23:33game in no way tells you how it decides
- 00:23:36teams there's no official readout of
- 00:23:40your MMR or or how it pairs you nothing
- 00:23:43so when humans don't have an explanation
- 00:23:46we tend to fill in the blanks if you
- 00:23:49lose a match that felt unfair it's way
- 00:23:52easier to blame the Unseen algorithm
- 00:23:55than to chalk it up to just random
- 00:23:57chance personal mistakes or just a skill
- 00:23:59issue especially when you see patterns
- 00:24:02over dozens of matches your brain looks
- 00:24:04for a reason players also talk to each
- 00:24:07other you know and I see it even in chat
- 00:24:09we're sharing stories of bizarre matches
- 00:24:11suspicious patterns and you know kind of
- 00:24:14half-remembered quotes from Dev
- 00:24:16interviews or leaked code so in Rivals
- 00:24:18this case the existence of these actual
- 00:24:21research papers by the developers is
- 00:24:24like pouring gasoline on the fire it's
- 00:24:27it's pretty rare to be honest that
- 00:24:29players have such direct hints at what
- 00:24:32might be going on behind the scenes I
- 00:24:34know for me I've never really had access
- 00:24:36to research papers that explain
- 00:24:39something about an online competitive
- 00:24:41game I'm playing and and that's the
- 00:24:43product of this video as well so when
- 00:24:45they read things or or a line in the
- 00:24:48paper like fair games are not sufficient
- 00:24:50to ensure player engagement from net E's
- 00:24:54own paper yeah it's it's super easy to
- 00:24:57jump to conclusions aha they don't care
- 00:25:00about Fair matches at all they only care
- 00:25:01about engagement they'll do whatever it
- 00:25:04takes to make us play more even if it
- 00:25:06means rigging games you bastards the
- 00:25:09emotional toll is is notable I mean it
- 00:25:12it feels personal sometimes games are
- 00:25:15emotional experiences I would even argue
- 00:25:17that Rivals is even more of an emotional
- 00:25:19experience because there's a team
- 00:25:20involved and this is accountability or
- 00:25:23lack thereof there's this thing where
- 00:25:26people are delusional and you don't want
- 00:25:27to accept your own mistakes so you look
- 00:25:29to others it's it's like a tiny little
- 00:25:31Society it's very interesting but when
- 00:25:33you lose because you got outplayed it
- 00:25:36stings it sucks but you can accept it
- 00:25:39and try to improve but when you lose and
- 00:25:42feel helpless like nothing you could
- 00:25:45have done would change the outcome then
- 00:25:47it breeds frustration and conspiracy so
- 00:25:51Rivals players have expressed that eomm
- 00:25:54undermines the core satisfaction of
- 00:25:56improving as a player and then that's a
- 00:25:58quote by the way undermines the core
- 00:26:00satisfaction of improving as a player
- 00:26:02making success or failure feel
- 00:26:04disconnected from your skill that's a
- 00:26:05pretty strong psychological blow you
- 00:26:07know if if practice and skill building
- 00:26:10don't guarantee better results you know
- 00:26:12because the matchmaking will just throw
- 00:26:14a wrench in it then when Why Try it all
- 00:26:16I'm spending time in AIM trainers and in
- 00:26:18the practice mode what's that practice
- 00:26:20mode for if I'm just going to lose
- 00:26:22because the game makes it you know this
- 00:26:23this perceived lack of player agency
- 00:26:26drives people to conclude that the
- 00:26:27system is fundamentally unfair it's it's
- 00:26:31not just that one match was off it's the
- 00:26:34idea that the entire ladder is a lie
- 00:26:37you're you're not truly in control of
- 00:26:38your rank because the game is just
- 00:26:40pulling strings in the background and
- 00:26:42that's even a more sensitive issue when
- 00:26:44people try to rank you know when you're
- 00:26:45trying to actually get better at the
- 00:26:47game and earn certain rewards then it
- 00:26:49starts to get a little controversial so
- 00:26:51all these perceptions start to create a
- 00:26:54really powerful narrative that Marvel
- 00:26:56rivals' matchmaking is rigged which I'm
- 00:26:59not sure if I would use that word but
- 00:27:01that's what people feel it's important
- 00:27:03to note here that you know not every
- 00:27:05player feels this way some climb the
- 00:27:06ranks and feel the only thing stopping
- 00:27:09them is the next skill hurdle and that's
- 00:27:11that's a fantastic mindset to have and
- 00:27:13if you have that congratulations but the
- 00:27:16fact that enough players share the
- 00:27:18rigged perception means that it's a real
- 00:27:21Community issue that I thought was worth
- 00:27:23investigating which is why I'm making
- 00:27:24this video now let's peek behind the
- 00:27:27accusations you know how does Marvel
- 00:27:29rivals' matchmaking actually work let's
- 00:27:32pose the big question are these rigging
- 00:27:35claims true what does the evidence say
- 00:27:38about Marvel rivals' matchmaking
- 00:27:40mechanics and their effects let's
- 00:27:42analyze this point by Point comparing
- 00:27:45player claims with what we know from
- 00:27:47research and data the first claim as you
- 00:27:50remember was that the system forces a
- 00:27:5250% win rate for everyone so it's not
- 00:27:56literally forcing a precise 50% on
- 00:28:00everyone some players do maintain higher
- 00:28:03win rates especially in team games where
- 00:28:06you can party up with your friends and
- 00:28:08communicate directly and practice
- 00:28:10together or some players are just
- 00:28:11amazing at their characters right and
- 00:28:13they're just very talented however the
- 00:28:16this engagement optimized design does
- 00:28:19tend to nudge everyone towards the
- 00:28:21middle so the eomm logic from the EA
- 00:28:24paper and some other ones as well
- 00:28:27explicitly tries to avoid long losing or
- 00:28:30winning streaks because those can reduce
- 00:28:33engagement if Marvel Rivals indeed uses
- 00:28:35that logic then over time most players
- 00:28:39will experience roughly equal wins and
- 00:28:42losses by Design not because the game
- 00:28:45predetermines each match outcome but
- 00:28:47because if you start deviating too high
- 00:28:50or too low the matchmaking adapts it's
- 00:28:52just going to snap you back to the
- 00:28:53middle win a lot and as a result you're
- 00:28:56going to be facing tougher matchups
- 00:28:58you're going to have you know stronger
- 00:28:59opponents maybe even less favorable team
- 00:29:02comps until you lose or lose a lot and
- 00:29:06you're going to get easier matchups so
- 00:29:08weaker opponents strong Ally or even
- 00:29:11Bots inserted to help until you win so
- 00:29:14it's it's basically a rubber band effect
- 00:29:16and I talked about it earlier but racing
- 00:29:18games like Mario Kart famously give the
- 00:29:21leading racer weaker powerups and the
- 00:29:23trailing racer powerful boost like the
- 00:29:25[ __ ] blue shells just a just a keep
- 00:29:28the races close and unpredictable so
- 00:29:30Marvel rivals' matchmaking appears to be
- 00:29:32doing a a kind of a similar thing but
- 00:29:35with how it forms its matches this
- 00:29:37doesn't mean that every player is
- 00:29:39exactly at 50% of course we know that
- 00:29:42highly skilled players can still
- 00:29:44maintain a very positive win rate over
- 00:29:46hundreds of games and very new players
- 00:29:49might be below the 50% as they learn but
- 00:29:52the system's intent is to keep you
- 00:29:56around an equilibrium where where you
- 00:29:58win about as much as you lose therefore
- 00:30:01preserving that kind of tension and the
- 00:30:04drive to play just one more match which
- 00:30:07Marvel Rivals has that in Spades so
- 00:30:09there there is some truth to this claim
- 00:30:12but calling it forced might be too
- 00:30:15strong it's it's just probabilistic
- 00:30:18adjustment not a guarantee you know one
- 00:30:21one Community analysis even pointed out
- 00:30:23that nowhere in the available research
- 00:30:26was there a statement that one team will
- 00:30:28always get an advantage over the other
- 00:30:32or that the outcomes are pred decided so
- 00:30:35the matches themselves aren't fixed you
- 00:30:37you always have a chance to win it's
- 00:30:39just that the conditions are tuned to
- 00:30:42make those chances chances hover over
- 00:30:44the 50/50 for most players the second
- 00:30:46claim was that matchmaking gives me bad
- 00:30:48teammates on purpose to make me lose so
- 00:30:51this one's really tricky um if we
- 00:30:54interpret bad as in lower skill
- 00:30:56teammates if we agree on that the
- 00:30:58research does suggest that this does
- 00:31:01happen occasionally by Design end match
- 00:31:03findings show that a team composition of
- 00:31:06mixed skill so what that means is one
- 00:31:08high skill and two low skill in a 3v3
- 00:31:11team for example can improve overall
- 00:31:14engagement versus all players being of
- 00:31:17equal skill yeah the the algorithm might
- 00:31:20sometimes pair a strong player with
- 00:31:22weaker ones that can happen however it's
- 00:31:25not as simple as to make you lose in
- 00:31:28theory those matches are still intended
- 00:31:30to be winnable the other team might also
- 00:31:33have a mix maybe one medium-sized anchor
- 00:31:36instead of a high skilled star but all
- 00:31:38pretty decent the purpose here the aim
- 00:31:41is that the match is close that's it the
- 00:31:44danger is that if you as a high skilled
- 00:31:46player don't perform exceptionally well
- 00:31:49or to to the standard that the game
- 00:31:51expects you to and you might indeed lose
- 00:31:54and then just feel held back by your
- 00:31:55allies and what about the exam case like
- 00:31:59deliberately griefing you with team
- 00:32:01members who are far below your skill
- 00:32:03well regular ranked play probably won't
- 00:32:07put a top tier and bottom tier player
- 00:32:09together often because of the initial
- 00:32:11grouping by skill so probably not going
- 00:32:13to happen but in agase scenarios or if
- 00:32:17the population is low at your skill
- 00:32:19level and that leads to to kind of wider
- 00:32:22searches you might see it so also if if
- 00:32:26the system thinks that you're lik ly to
- 00:32:28carry and still have a fair match it
- 00:32:31might gamble on a wider skill Gap team
- 00:32:33so then it can happen as well but most
- 00:32:36importantly there's no evidence
- 00:32:39whatsoever that the system identifies a
- 00:32:41specific player to punish and then
- 00:32:44assigns bad teammates out of spite it's
- 00:32:47not like that it's it's more systemic it
- 00:32:50just treats everyone as part of the big
- 00:32:52engagement equation so you might get bad
- 00:32:56teammates one match and and then be the
- 00:32:58bad teammate in another match and then
- 00:33:02it all kind of balances out so one thing
- 00:33:04that I thought really debunks the more
- 00:33:07paranoid version of this claim is that
- 00:33:10like the truly horrible mismatches would
- 00:33:12ruin engagement not improve it if Marvel
- 00:33:15Rivals put a newbie on your high ranked
- 00:33:18team that newbie would be miserable
- 00:33:20they're going to crush him they're going
- 00:33:21to go after him he'll be angry my throw
- 00:33:25you'll be angry at them that's a lose
- 00:33:27lose scenario for the purpose of
- 00:33:30boosting engagement and enjoyment of the
- 00:33:31game in other words it would create
- 00:33:33churn which is something that these
- 00:33:35algorithms do take into account and try
- 00:33:37to avoid at any cost so the more likely
- 00:33:39scenario here I think is that you just
- 00:33:42get teammates slightly below your level
- 00:33:45paired against opponents slightly above
- 00:33:47your team's average and then if if
- 00:33:49that's done right the match could still
- 00:33:52be balanced so from your POV you notice
- 00:33:55that your alleys allies are making more
- 00:33:57mistakes than you and it just feels
- 00:33:59unfair I think that's what's going on
- 00:34:01the third claim is that the game
- 00:34:03secretly adjusts gameplay so damage hit
- 00:34:07Boxes Etc or uses Bots to influence
- 00:34:10outcomes okay this one is a bit wacky
- 00:34:12but this is a deeper conspiracy floating
- 00:34:15around that I've seen so some players
- 00:34:18speculated some crazy things like the
- 00:34:21game might dynamically Nerf your damage
- 00:34:24output if you're on a winning streak or
- 00:34:26expand an enemy hitbox to ensure you
- 00:34:29miss essentially kind of invisible
- 00:34:32handicaps Beyond just team composition
- 00:34:34and one person said that that's why they
- 00:34:36don't have the damage number so we can't
- 00:34:38tell so as of now there's zero concrete
- 00:34:42evidence for such kind know real time
- 00:34:44in-match rigging that would be far more
- 00:34:48akin to actual match fixing and probably
- 00:34:52detectable if somebody records and
- 00:34:54analyzes gameplay data I've just never
- 00:34:56bothered to do that all indications from
- 00:34:58the research papers that I read are that
- 00:35:01the rigging if any happens is kind of at
- 00:35:04the matchmaking stage not within the
- 00:35:07match and I'm even careful to call it
- 00:35:08rigging but you know what I mean so the
- 00:35:10game isn't altering your bullets or your
- 00:35:13hero's Health on the Fly under the guys
- 00:35:16of matchmaking it just it would be a
- 00:35:19technical and I I also think ethical can
- 00:35:21of worms for the developers to do that
- 00:35:24as for Bots you know marvel Rivals like
- 00:35:27many games does use bots in some modes
- 00:35:30or just a backfill if a human player
- 00:35:32isn't available so that and then that
- 00:35:34makes sense like the allegation is that
- 00:35:37after a string of losses you might be
- 00:35:39placed into a match where one or two of
- 00:35:41your teammates are actually AI Bots
- 00:35:43thisg disu this you know player like
- 00:35:46names who were tuned to play well with
- 00:35:48you or let you shine thereby you know
- 00:35:51boosting your morale or something so in
- 00:35:53community discussions some claim to have
- 00:35:57noticed patterns like teammates that
- 00:35:59behave oddly or too predictably and
- 00:36:02suspect that they're Bots put there to
- 00:36:04help them out the developers have not
- 00:36:06confirmed this if true it would be an
- 00:36:09extreme form of Engagement optimization
- 00:36:12like literally rigging a win for you by
- 00:36:15using dummy players right so it's it's
- 00:36:17plausible in theory you know single
- 00:36:19player games tend to adjust difficulty
- 00:36:22all the time but here it would be like
- 00:36:24adding an NPC on your team to just tilt
- 00:36:27the odds whatever but without official
- 00:36:29word or data we should just take this
- 00:36:30claim with a grain of salt it's a little
- 00:36:33crazy the next claim was engagement
- 00:36:35optimized means that the game cares more
- 00:36:38about profit than players this is more
- 00:36:41of a sentiment and a feeling rather than
- 00:36:43a factual claim but it it does underpin
- 00:36:46the rigged narrative so players feel
- 00:36:48that if the goal isn't pure competition
- 00:36:52then the developers must be manipulating
- 00:36:54matches to make money for example by
- 00:36:57keeping you to play longer so maybe you
- 00:37:00spend on a cool skin or just frustrating
- 00:37:03you enough to just hey maybe if I buy a
- 00:37:06new skin I'll play better I don't know
- 00:37:07there's there's some truth to you know
- 00:37:10that engagement often correlates with
- 00:37:12revenue and freeo playay games if you
- 00:37:14play longer there are more chances and
- 00:37:16opportunities for you to just buy
- 00:37:18something and you know we saw that in
- 00:37:20the EA paper they outright mentioned
- 00:37:23possibly tuning matchmaking for spending
- 00:37:25metrics who knows maybe they're doing it
- 00:37:27here I don't know but let's let's be
- 00:37:29objective engagement doesn't only
- 00:37:32benefit the company it can also benefit
- 00:37:33the player too in terms of having more
- 00:37:36people to play with you know a game that
- 00:37:38retains players well is alive and fun
- 00:37:41the community is great A game that is
- 00:37:43brutally fair but Hemorrhage as newbies
- 00:37:46might end up in a graveyard where only
- 00:37:48the hardcore remain and I can tell you
- 00:37:50for sure other games I play are games
- 00:37:52like Tekken where it came off and
- 00:37:54started off with a lot of players and
- 00:37:56now whoever's left they just the sweat
- 00:37:58Lords and it's a murder scene in there
- 00:38:01so this is definitely definitely true
- 00:38:03the developers likely do want you to
- 00:38:06have fun just enough fun and some ups
- 00:38:09and downs you know so that you can just
- 00:38:11keep coming back and having different
- 00:38:13emotional experiences and it's I know
- 00:38:15it's it's a delicate balance if they
- 00:38:17push too hard for profit and then make
- 00:38:20the experience unenjoyable then it
- 00:38:23backfires and players leave and we've
- 00:38:26you know we've seen that many many times
- 00:38:28before so while yes the system is there
- 00:38:32in part to increase metrics that tie to
- 00:38:34profit I don't think it's just a simple
- 00:38:37Evil versus good scenario they're trying
- 00:38:40to align what keeps you playing with
- 00:38:43what you enjoy just with maybe a heavier
- 00:38:46hand than some would like that's it and
- 00:38:48they have to make money right somehow
- 00:38:50and the game is free so I'd be okay with
- 00:38:53a little push towards profit another
- 00:38:55claim was that if I am stuck in rank
- 00:38:58it's the matchmaking fault all right so
- 00:39:00this is the classic ELO hell argument
- 00:39:03heard in other games from you know
- 00:39:05OverWatch all the way to League of
- 00:39:07Legends um now eold and and Marvel
- 00:39:10Rivals so the idea is that you might
- 00:39:14belong in a higher rank say you believe
- 00:39:17that you have the skill of a diamond
- 00:39:18player but the matchmaking systems
- 00:39:21tricks keep you stuck in Gold by
- 00:39:24throwing unwinable games at you is it
- 00:39:26true for a consistently excellent player
- 00:39:31probably not in the long run there's a
- 00:39:33YouTuber whose name is awward and I
- 00:39:36think he's a former OverWatch guy and he
- 00:39:39took mantis on 100% winning streak I
- 00:39:41think he went all the way from bronze to
- 00:39:43to GM over a six-hour period so
- 00:39:46obviously there's outliers for these
- 00:39:47things but while engagement matchmaking
- 00:39:51can I mean really slow down how quickly
- 00:39:54you climb because it will feed you some
- 00:39:57losses even if you're good as as awkward
- 00:40:00showed if you genuinely outperform your
- 00:40:02Pierce significantly you're going to
- 00:40:04rise so we see top players they're able
- 00:40:08to reach the highest ranks in Marvel
- 00:40:10Rivals we see it happen you know not
- 00:40:12constantly but pretty frequently and
- 00:40:15they also deal with the same system
- 00:40:17right but just their skill carries them
- 00:40:19through the artificial hurdles that the
- 00:40:21game throws at them on the other side
- 00:40:23there's one highlevel player that
- 00:40:25pointed out that they've seen top tier
- 00:40:27play player Smurf basically play on new
- 00:40:29accounts and even they lose games in
- 00:40:32bronze on occasion so that's normal
- 00:40:35Varian I think over a large sample they
- 00:40:38will still climb right they're great
- 00:40:39players the engagement system doesn't
- 00:40:42really lock doors it it perhaps adds
- 00:40:45some extra zigzags to the path upward
- 00:40:47but it doesn't lock doors so if someone
- 00:40:50is truly hard stuck in a rank over
- 00:40:53hundreds of games it's likely that their
- 00:40:56current skill level
- 00:40:57as harsh as that might sound and you may
- 00:40:59disagree that's what's holding them back
- 00:41:02the system might have given them a few
- 00:41:04more bad dice rolls than a purely random
- 00:41:07system would but not an impenetrable
- 00:41:10wall in fact one commenter encouraged
- 00:41:12that you're not in bronze silver or gold
- 00:41:15because end match is rigging your games
- 00:41:18you're in those ranks because you belong
- 00:41:20there it's a tough love statement I know
- 00:41:23but statistically it's probable the
- 00:41:25engagement Focus matchmaking can impact
- 00:41:27your experience of climbing so making it
- 00:41:31you know Streaker or or perhaps slower
- 00:41:34but there's no evidence that it stops
- 00:41:36you from climbing entirely and why would
- 00:41:39it so stepping back from the specific
- 00:41:41claims let's weigh in what the
- 00:41:43matchmaking approach does well and where
- 00:41:46it falters first let's let's talk about
- 00:41:48the pros um the first one that I can
- 00:41:50identify as more exciting matches in
- 00:41:53theory so by avoiding just complete
- 00:41:56Stomps and long you know monotonic
- 00:41:59streaks the system strives to give you a
- 00:42:02mix of wins and losses that just keep
- 00:42:05the outcome of each session uncertain
- 00:42:07close matches you know come from behind
- 00:42:10victories and the occasional kind of
- 00:42:11nail biters are really fun I feel that
- 00:42:14system on me I remember my matches I
- 00:42:18remember the close calls and I remember
- 00:42:20the Stomps occasionally and I remember
- 00:42:22the feeling of coming back or the
- 00:42:25feeling of having it and losing it
- 00:42:26that's still an experience so a purely
- 00:42:29Fair system can sometimes produce pretty
- 00:42:32boring kind of predictable matches you
- 00:42:35know imagine always knowing you'll crush
- 00:42:37or be crushed with KN in between the
- 00:42:40engagement approach kind of injects a
- 00:42:43bit of the unexpected in there so as one
- 00:42:45net e summary put it it aims for
- 00:42:48patterns that improve player retention
- 00:42:49by keeping things diverse another really
- 00:42:52big Pro for me is retention of new or
- 00:42:55casual players so new or less skilled
- 00:42:58players are much less likely to be
- 00:43:00thrown into a just a meat grinder of
- 00:43:03constant losses I talked about Tekken
- 00:43:05Tekken a before that's what it is you
- 00:43:07cannot rank up these [ __ ] have
- 00:43:09been playing that game for 30 years you
- 00:43:12cannot it's just impossible so unless
- 00:43:14you're willing to put on that work or be
- 00:43:15super talented you're screwed you can't
- 00:43:18if the system detects that they're at
- 00:43:20risk of quitting so basically their
- 00:43:22their turn probability is high then it
- 00:43:24will try to give them a better
- 00:43:26experience maybe that one match where
- 00:43:29they get to be the hero or be really
- 00:43:31impactful you know so that compassion
- 00:43:34towards the lower end of the skill curve
- 00:43:36typically means that more players stick
- 00:43:38around which is healthy for the game
- 00:43:41population and it's healthy for the game
- 00:43:42and it's just no fun for anyone if only
- 00:43:45the hardcore players remain and the Q
- 00:43:48times Skyrocket and I guess this is also
- 00:43:50why Marvel has been able to maintain the
- 00:43:54player count it has pretty much since
- 00:43:56launch so I see this as a really big
- 00:43:59thing and I hope this never changes I
- 00:44:00sort of talked about it already but
- 00:44:02faster Q times is a big deal man with a
- 00:44:05really flexible system like that then
- 00:44:07the matchmaking can sometimes relax some
- 00:44:11strict skill matching to get players
- 00:44:13into the games faster if the top
- 00:44:15priority was perfectly even skill then
- 00:44:18higher ranked players might wait ages to
- 00:44:20find the exact match rivals' approach is
- 00:44:23willing to bend the rules a bit kind of
- 00:44:25like mixing skill levels in a team to
- 00:44:28reduce weight under the belief that
- 00:44:30playing is more fun than waiting I tend
- 00:44:33to agree and then the last Pro that I
- 00:44:35can think of is it just encourages
- 00:44:37adaptability so by sometimes putting
- 00:44:39players in uncomfortable situations like
- 00:44:42off rolls or just carrying weaker
- 00:44:44teammates once you get good it
- 00:44:46challenges them to adapt for competitive
- 00:44:48folks this can actually really Foster
- 00:44:50skill growth in versatility and maybe
- 00:44:52even leadership you might become a
- 00:44:54better player overall by learning to
- 00:44:55handle a variety of M match conditions
- 00:44:58not just fair fights hey these guys are
- 00:45:00rushing to spawn should I just sit here
- 00:45:03and chat or do I go and help you know
- 00:45:05little things like that can really help
- 00:45:07you out so I'm a glass half full kind of
- 00:45:09person I like to think of this as a
- 00:45:11positive now let's talk about the bat
- 00:45:13stuff um the first one I can think of is
- 00:45:16there's just this perceived lack of
- 00:45:18fairness I talked about it in detail but
- 00:45:22many players feel really cheated by this
- 00:45:24system and I understand how that feeling
- 00:45:27comes about just the the Integrity of
- 00:45:29ranked competition really comes into
- 00:45:32question if the rules aren't consistent
- 00:45:35so in a fair match you'd say May the
- 00:45:38best team win in a heavily engagement
- 00:45:40driven match one could just cynically
- 00:45:43say May the algorithm decide and that I
- 00:45:46think undercuts the competitive Spirit
- 00:45:49I'm not an amazing player I'm I'm new to
- 00:45:51these games and I just hit Platinum last
- 00:45:53night so I'm very proud of myself but
- 00:45:56Rising platinum and now facing the
- 00:45:59reality that I want to go to Diamond and
- 00:46:00other ranks knowing all of this is in my
- 00:46:03head definitely undercuts it a bit the
- 00:46:06second one is uh a lot of high skill
- 00:46:09players are just frustrated or will get
- 00:46:11frustrated so the best players will
- 00:46:14often want to test their skills in a
- 00:46:16pure environment when they feel that the
- 00:46:18system is throwing them curveballs like
- 00:46:21weaker teammates or just some forced
- 00:46:24weird probability scenarios it's very
- 00:46:26frustrating they they don't want to they
- 00:46:28don't want training wheels or artificial
- 00:46:30difficulty they want their true skill to
- 00:46:32be the only factor and I get that some
- 00:46:35are just going to quit out of
- 00:46:36frustrations or or a sense that the game
- 00:46:38isn't rewarding their time and we see
- 00:46:41this sentiment in in the Marvel Rivals
- 00:46:43Community a lot with some skilled
- 00:46:44players announcing their departure due
- 00:46:46to the eomm system then then I can also
- 00:46:48think of just it's complex and it's
- 00:46:51unpredictable so the system is so
- 00:46:54complex that even develop
- 00:46:57and data scientists struggle to
- 00:46:59perfectly tune it and that tells you
- 00:47:01something that means it might make some
- 00:47:04mistakes a lot of mistakes so you could
- 00:47:06get matches that end up just horribly
- 00:47:09one-sided or bizarre outliers that's
- 00:47:12slip through the algorithms you know
- 00:47:14testing and when it does players won't
- 00:47:17just see it as a one-off error they'll
- 00:47:20potentially view it as proof of
- 00:47:22malicious rigging and then they can get
- 00:47:24really pissed so the lack of
- 00:47:26transparency amplifies this players just
- 00:47:28don't know why a match was bad so they
- 00:47:31just assume the worst the the last con
- 00:47:33I'll give you here is just the ethical
- 00:47:35and long-term issues it proposes so if
- 00:47:38players feel manipulated that erodes
- 00:47:40trust in in the short term they might
- 00:47:43keep playing the the Skinner box effect
- 00:47:46if anybody knows it or of variable
- 00:47:48rewards they can be pretty compelling
- 00:47:50sometimes but in the long run it can
- 00:47:52foster a lot of cynicism and burnout so
- 00:47:55now we're in the honeymoon period period
- 00:47:57I don't know what it's going to look
- 00:47:58like in 6 months so you know a game can
- 00:48:00develop a reputation for being unfair or
- 00:48:02pay to win in some cases even if money
- 00:48:04isn't directly involved kind of any
- 00:48:06width of trying to get engagement to
- 00:48:08monetization can really tarnish
- 00:48:10perception so if if Marvel Rivals is
- 00:48:13seen as too psychologically manipulative
- 00:48:16it might drive away the exact dedicated
- 00:48:19community that would sustain it for
- 00:48:20years and I I know you know I I've made
- 00:48:23Marvel snap videos Marvel snap is a
- 00:48:25Mobile card game that suffers from
- 00:48:27exactly that and if you want to kind of
- 00:48:29see a Telltale case of that and people
- 00:48:31leaving and leaving the game behind me
- 00:48:33included this is why I'm making Rivals
- 00:48:35content now and I don't cover snap
- 00:48:36anymore this is it right there oh hello
- 00:48:39person that skipped the whole video just
- 00:48:40to get to this
- 00:48:42part anyway so what is the conclusion
- 00:48:47rigged or just reality well the answer
- 00:48:50is both simpler and more complicated
- 00:48:53than the question implies it's rigged in
- 00:48:56the same same way that a theme park ride
- 00:48:59is rigged the ups and downs and thrills
- 00:49:02of it are engineered they're planned
- 00:49:05it's just a bunch of metal but the fun
- 00:49:07you're feeling and the puke that's
- 00:49:09coming out of your mouth that's entirely
- 00:49:11real so in a just purely competitive
- 00:49:14sense rigging suggests deceit so it's
- 00:49:19the idea that the outcomes are
- 00:49:20pre-ordained or that someone is pulling
- 00:49:23strings so that the matches aren't on
- 00:49:25the same level Marvel rivals'
- 00:49:28matchmaking isn't rigged in that overly
- 00:49:31nefarious way no one is sitting at a
- 00:49:34control panel somewhere saying give Nerf
- 00:49:37pool a loss he's been kicking ass that's
- 00:49:40not happening there's no evidence of the
- 00:49:42game flat out choosing winners or
- 00:49:45tweaking your damage in real time to
- 00:49:47make you lose a fight come on like
- 00:49:49that's nuts you can always through skill
- 00:49:52and teamwork locking in good
- 00:49:55communication just overcome the
- 00:49:57challenges that the system throws at you
- 00:49:59nothing is unwinable or unwinable by
- 00:50:02Design in absolute terms however Marvel
- 00:50:06Rivals is for sure using a sophisticated
- 00:50:09matchmaking algorithm that has its own
- 00:50:11agenda that is proven in the papers and
- 00:50:15also through the analysis that I've made
- 00:50:16in this video so the agenda isn't purely
- 00:50:20to create Fair even contests it's just
- 00:50:23to keep you playing and enjoying or or
- 00:50:26at least being engage with the game
- 00:50:27that's it and yeah in the pursuit of
- 00:50:30that it may at times feel like an
- 00:50:32invisible hand is orchestrating your
- 00:50:34rise and fall you know the system giveth
- 00:50:37and the system taketh away and it
- 00:50:39doesn't even tell you when and it
- 00:50:40doesn't tell you why so perhaps the
- 00:50:43truth is best seen as just a nuanced
- 00:50:46explanation rather than just a binary
- 00:50:49verdict so rivals' matchmaking lies in a
- 00:50:51gray Zone and and here's why it strives
- 00:50:54for balance first of all but not the
- 00:50:56traditional kind of balance we expect in
- 00:50:58competitive rank Play It's just
- 00:51:00balancing engagement metrics with
- 00:51:02fairness also it protects new or
- 00:51:04faltering players which is arguably a
- 00:51:07really good thing but in doing so it it
- 00:51:09might hold back really good players
- 00:51:12momentarily just to level things out it
- 00:51:14also doesn't want you to leave angry or
- 00:51:17bored but ironically that very effort
- 00:51:21can make people angry if they become
- 00:51:23aware of it so that's kind of silly for
- 00:51:26casual players this system can be really
- 00:51:29a blessing it just Smooths out the
- 00:51:31extremes and ensures that more games
- 00:51:34feel competitive for competitive purists
- 00:51:36it can feel like a curse so it's just
- 00:51:39this everpresent handicap system that
- 00:51:41that kind of muddles the true display of
- 00:51:43skill so in my investigative Journey
- 00:51:47here I saw that the idea of Engagement
- 00:51:51based matchmaking didn't just start with
- 00:51:53Marvel Rivals it's it's part of a
- 00:51:55broader evolution tion in gaming just
- 00:51:57from the early ELO days of Chess to
- 00:52:01today's kind of machine learning driven
- 00:52:03techniques Marv Rivals is just one of
- 00:52:06the higher profile cases where the
- 00:52:09community spotted the man behind the
- 00:52:10curtain so to speak thanks in part to
- 00:52:13those research papers like the eomm and
- 00:52:15opt match knowing about them has kind of
- 00:52:18ironically made players really
- 00:52:21suspicious transparency is a
- 00:52:24double-edged swordman if players don't
- 00:52:26like what they see they start to lose
- 00:52:27trust Marvel rivals' matchmaking is just
- 00:52:30engineered in a way you know not to
- 00:52:33guarantee specific outcomes but just a
- 00:52:35shape an overall experience and whether
- 00:52:38that crosses the line into feeling
- 00:52:41unfair is really a subjective topic and
- 00:52:45it really varies player to player so in
- 00:52:47the end we we just must reflect on what
- 00:52:50we want from our games if the answer is
- 00:52:54pure competition and merit-based
- 00:52:55progression
- 00:52:57then Marvel rivals' system is just going
- 00:52:59to feel antagonistic to that maybe even
- 00:53:02unacceptable for a lot of players but if
- 00:53:05the answer is exciting matches and a
- 00:53:08healthy game Community then you know the
- 00:53:10systems goals start to make a lot of
- 00:53:12sense even if the execution might need
- 00:53:15some tuning one thing is very clear to
- 00:53:17me is that the discussion Marvel Rivals
- 00:53:19has sparked will be important for the
- 00:53:21future of online games it it forces
- 00:53:24developers to consider how much much
- 00:53:26they should prioritize engagement over
- 00:53:29transparency and fairness and it does
- 00:53:31push players to ask how much algorithmic
- 00:53:35meddling they're comfortable with and
- 00:53:37that's going to become more and more of
- 00:53:39a thing especially with AI on the rise
- 00:53:41so we almost have to get used to it and
- 00:53:44as players I think being informed is our
- 00:53:47best tool understanding the forces at
- 00:53:49play shows that we can adapt and just
- 00:53:52make our own choices to play to pause or
- 00:53:55just to move to to a different game if
- 00:53:57that aligns with our philosophy and that
- 00:53:59was the purpose of this entire
- 00:54:01monstrosity of a video is to inform to
- 00:54:04help you see different perspectives of
- 00:54:06of this matchmaking to also nerd out a
- 00:54:09little bit I think it's really cool that
- 00:54:11things have evolved to to this extent
- 00:54:13all the way from chess now to here and
- 00:54:16I'm excited to see where it goes because
- 00:54:18I do like that it's focused on shaping
- 00:54:21an experience that the developers intend
- 00:54:24I just have some combating feelings with
- 00:54:28how healthy that is for a competitive
- 00:54:30environment but overall it was
- 00:54:32incredibly fun for me to learn all of
- 00:54:35this it was exhausting to make this and
- 00:54:38to research everything so hopefully you
- 00:54:40appreciated it and um I'm I'm looking
- 00:54:43forward to seeing how net e you know
- 00:54:46advances with this and even though I am
- 00:54:49don't want to look at a research paper
- 00:54:51again in the near future I would be
- 00:54:53excited to see new developments around
- 00:54:55this topic cuz I think it's genuinely
- 00:54:56kind of cool so the next time you find
- 00:54:59yourself in a baffling losing streak or
- 00:55:03an effortless win streak in Marvel
- 00:55:05Rivals you'll know that it might not be
- 00:55:07mere luck of the draw there's a system
- 00:55:10in the shadows a balancing and
- 00:55:13rebalancing of the scales rigged not
- 00:55:16exactly but neither is it the Level
- 00:55:19Playing Field we once imagined it's
- 00:55:21something new a Battleground where human
- 00:55:25skill and machine strategy
- 00:55:28intersect and in this new Arena the
- 00:55:31final judgment on whether that's right
- 00:55:33or wrong is up to each of you
- Matchmaking
- Marvel Rivals
- EOMM
- SBMM
- Online Gaming
- Player Engagement
- Game Design
- Skill Rating
- Player Experience
- Competitive Gaming