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[Music]
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world-renowned Economist Professor
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author and Global analyst Jeffrey saaks
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joins me one-on-one to discuss some of
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the world's major issues hello I'm
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arnand naido and this is the Heat
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[Music]
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with so many big stories making news
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across the world it is my pleasure to be
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joined by the acclaimed Economist and
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Global analyst Jeffrey saaks for his
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insight and perspective we will discuss
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China its economy and beijing's
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relations with Washington I will also
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get his views on the Trump presidency
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efforts to end the Russia Ukraine
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conflict and the ongoing crisis in Gaza
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Jeffrey saaks is director of the Center
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for sustainable development at Columbia
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University he's also president of the UN
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sustainable development Solutions
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Network and has served as a special
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advisor to three un secretaries General
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Jeffrey welcome to the show great to be
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with you thank you so much well as I
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said the world is beset uh by many
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conflicts right now we see the conflict
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in Ukraine we see what is going on in
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Gaza we have traditional alliances that
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are fraying right now we see
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protectionist barriers going up tariffs
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being introduced there have been
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retaliations it's placing heavy burdens
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on the global economy before we get into
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some
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specifics uh how would you describe
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these extraordinary times and are we at
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some sort of inflection point right now
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we are certainly at an inflection point
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uh we are in a new multipolar world
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actually we've been in a multi-polar
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world for quite a while but the United
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States hasn't recognized it so many of
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the crises that you mentioned the
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Ukraine war the ongoing wars in the
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Middle East the tensions between the US
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and China in my opinion uh have resulted
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from the failure of the US leadership
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for many years to understand
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multipolarity the US idea dating back at
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least to
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1991 arguably dating back to
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1945 in some sense back to the founding
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of the United States is that the US is
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exceptional and at least since 1991 that
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the US runs the show this is not a very
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realistic view of the world uh the US
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leadership doesn't understand China the
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US leadership greatly underestimated
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Russia the United States does not
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understand its isolation Visa the Middle
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East and the conflict between Israel and
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Palestine the United States still to
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this moment doesn't understand the
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Global Environmental crisis or doesn't
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want to understand it and so a lot of
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the problems sad to say uh emerge from
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one very powerful country the United
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States which has greatly overestimated
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its power and greatly
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underappreciated the importance of
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diplomacy to address Global issues
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thinking that somehow go It Alone is the
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right strategy it's not and it's led to
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a Cascade of
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Crisis well let's talk about that
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relationship that between the uh United
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States and China it's often been
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described as the world's most important
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bilateral relationship as the uh very
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important two sessions meetings which
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were watched by the world taking place
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in Beijing foreign minister Wong Yi
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reiterated China's support for
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multilateralism and for relations
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between the US and China to be based uh
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on Mutual respect on cooperation it's
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it's a contrast to the way Donald Trump
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sees things he talks about America First
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he's putting up protectionist barriers
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how do you assess the relationship right
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now and where it goes to from here it's
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a little bit complicated America
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First doesn't quite mean what America
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has pursued since 1992 which is American
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dominance uh the phrase America first uh
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means primarily uh American
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self-interest okay that's H one version
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but American Primacy has been the
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dominant foreign policy since the end of
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the Soviet Union meaning the belief by
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the American leadership that the US
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dominates the world and sets the rules
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of the game of course this is delusional
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idea China is very big very powerful
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doesn't want to have the United States
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set the rules wants a multilateral
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system in which the rules are set
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cooperatively and in mutual respect for
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a long time the United States thought
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well China's a a subsidiary uh it to us
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uh China will be helpful in our
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confrontation with the Soviet Union or
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with Russia but it's not a a competitor
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and then it suddenly dawned on the
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United States leaders sometime around
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2010 whoa look at China's success look
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at its scale look at its technological
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uh Innovations look at its industrial
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power and the United States quickly
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swung from a kind of complacence to a
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kind of panic about China and the Panic
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was we're number one but China's a
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threat to our Primacy and so immediately
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rough roughly around 2014 America swung
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to a a kind of quote unquote containment
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strategy we have to limit China's rise
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we have to prevent uh China from
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threatening American Primacy I would say
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this was also wrongheaded and delusional
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China's rise is not a threat to the
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United States and at least as I as an
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economist think about it there's no
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ranking one two three the question is
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human well-being an advancement of China
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advancement of the United States and
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China's rise in my view is not in any
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way a threat to the United States
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because we're not in a zero sum game
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well that's not the way the American
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strategists have thought about it and
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for the last 10 years they've been
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trying to think about ways to limit
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China's growth what they came up with
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already starting a decade ago was to try
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to create alternative trading systems in
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which China would be excluded to put on
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barriers to uh trade with China to add
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in uh tariffs against China to put on
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bans of exports of technology that would
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hinder China this is a Playbook that was
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actually spelled out about 10 years ago
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it's a very regrettable Playbook it's a
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very naive Playbook the United States
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cannot quote contain China uh it's not
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doing so it's not succeeding but it does
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raise a lot of tensions and moreover it
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creates problems for China not
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fundamental problems but the US market
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was very important for China's growth
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the US market is increasingly closed to
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Chinese exports Chinese exports are down
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from their Peak several years ago by 25%
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or so in dollar terms that's that's a
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lot it's not going to crush China China
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will reorient its trade to other markets
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but it's a it's a hindrance it's a
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nuisance uh it's unnecessarily hostile
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it's costly by the way to the United
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States this is not a zero sum game uh
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this is a net net loss when the US
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becomes protectionist but that is likely
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to be the continued approach of the
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Trump administration at least for a
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while at the uh two sessions meetings in
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Beijing we heard from uh the premier uh
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in his government work report and China
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has set a GP GDP Target of around 5% for
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2025 and as you point out China has made
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significant progress in technology
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especially in things like artificial
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intelligence uh in robotics as well as
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in electric vehicles it's now the
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biggest exporter of electric vehicles it
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is also stering away from its dependence
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on exports and focusing on domestic
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consumption what does this tell you
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about China's continued growth and how
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that in turn will drop Drive Global
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growth First China can achieve 5% growth
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for the coming years China has a lot of
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goods a lot of services that the
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emerging and developing economies
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urgently need zero carbon energy sources
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fast rail in some cases fourth
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generation nuclear power longdistance
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power transmission electric vehicles of
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5.5
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5G Data Systems artificial intelligence
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with deep seek and others China's at The
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Cutting Edge of the green and digital
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Technologies of the future it ought to
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be exporting those Technologies I wish
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the United States Market would stay open
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I wish we would be competing not
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protectionist but uh China should be
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exporting those critical digital and
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green technologies to the rest of the
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world not letting the United States uh
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stop China's export-led growth because
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that should continue merely going to
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consumption means unnecessarily slowing
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growth and unnecessarily depriving the
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world of the benefits of Chinese
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technology and and Chinese Investments
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so I would like to see an expanded belt
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and Road program for example in which
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China is helping developing countries to
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finance essentially the importation of
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all of this Advanced infrastructure
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which would build those partner
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economies and then those partner
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economies would repay the financing
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through their own rapid economic growth
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in the in the coming years in other
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words I'm not convinced that the
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fundamental idea is to shift from
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exports to consumption that's a that's a
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kind of that's an American approach
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we're very good at consumption not so
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good at investment and and exports I'd
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like to see China continue its success
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story uh with the rapid growth of
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exports but helping the emerging and
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developing economies and recognizing the
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American economy is going to be pretty
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protectionist for a
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while right you mentioned the uh belt
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and Road initiative uh that is now just
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over 10 years old um what do you make of
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the progress that's been made so far
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with this in initiative I think it's a
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phenomenally positive and important
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initiative that's one of the
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reasons I can say only semi factiously
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that the United States badmouths it all
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the time because it's very good and very
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important uh it's helping to finance the
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infrastructure and the connectivity of
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the world economy and it is a source of
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exports by China to the rest of the
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world a source of loans and now
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increasingly Equity Capital meaning
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foreign direct investment by Chinese
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companies that are producing in partner
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countries as well now it's created a
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so-called uh uh challenge of debt
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repayments by recipient countries and
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that uh has been called a debt Trap by
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the United States and so forth this is
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not at all
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true the main point is China should be
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providing financing to the emerging
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economies they can repay these loans the
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only change I would make in the belon
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road program in addition to expanding it
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would be to lengthen the maturity of the
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loans that are given from roughly 10year
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Finance to 20 or 25e Finance because
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developing countries need 20 or 25 years
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to reap the benefits in terms of
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increased output that then repays the
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loans but aside from that footnote of a
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lengthening maturity
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expand Bri this is the way that the
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whole world gets interconnected with
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Advanced 21st century green and digital
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Technologies I want to turn now to what
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is going on in the United States uh
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president Trump of course took office uh
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a few weeks ago he's instituting
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significant changes domestically uh as
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well as in foreign policy domestically
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we see these cuts to the federal
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Workforce we see the Crackdown on
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illegal immigration and then of course
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in terms of uh foreign policy we see the
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imposition of tariffs additional tariffs
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on China and now we see tariffs being
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imposed on the neighboring countries
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Mexico as well as Canada and the
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Democrats are struggling to find a
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response to all of this what is your
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view of these first few weeks of the
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Trump
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Administration well I think that there's
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one good sign which is that Trump is
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aiming to bring an end to the war in
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Ukraine which is a useless war that
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should have a long time ago that's very
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positive on the economic side I'm
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underwhelmed if I could put it that way
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it's it's a lot of chaos uh our
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financial situation in the United States
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is not good the budget deficit is around
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7% of GDP but as is a bad habit of us
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Politics the politicians want to cut
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taxes even though there's a a huge
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budget deficit uh in other words the
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United States is fiscally irresponsible
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and Trump is uh you know proposing he
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says cuts and spending but these cuts
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and spending either will be uh very
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small or will be made on the most
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vulnerable Americans basic access to
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health care and so forth which would be
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devastating and why to give tax cuts to
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the richest Americans so I'm really not
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impressed by the fiscal framework that
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Trump is proposing the Tariff barriers
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seem to me to be uh utterly
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self-defeating they'll just make the
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United States economy uncompetitive
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while annoying the rest of the world not
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crippling the rest of the world because
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the US is just not a big enough market
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to determine the fate of the world
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economy but it is big enough to annoy
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the rest of the world and that's what
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these tariffs are going to do they will
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not lead to any kind of recovery of the
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United States of its manufacturing and
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so forth because after all the basis of
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an economy uh and its competitiveness is
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its Innovation the quality of Education
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the quality of the skills of the the
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workforce uh the scientific and
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technological advancement uh it's not
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based on tariffs uh and so Trump has the
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wrong model for how to uh address add
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America's many economic ills which
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include by the way basically two
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societies one doing okay if you have an
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advanced degree if you have high skills
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and one really suffering a a lot because
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uh uh incomes are stagnant uh and jobs
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are being lost to Robotics and
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artificial intelligence and Trump does
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not have a structural answer at all to
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what what ails the US
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economy all right you mentioned the
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Russia Ukraine conflict uh and the
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search for a peace deal the effort
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that's being made by the Trump
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Administration while that recent overal
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office meeting between President Trump
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as well as vice president Vance and the
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Ukrainian president zinski did not go
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well and I'm being charitable about that
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um but do you see an end to the conflict
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soon what's it going to take I do see an
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end to the conflict because the conflict
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depends on financing and uh arming of
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Ukraine by the United States in other
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words this is a proxy war of the United
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States uh fighting Russia it's doing it
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by hundreds of thousands of ukrainians
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being killed it's a it's a terrible War
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but it from the US point of view it is
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was kind of a game uh sad to say the
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game was expand NATO to surround Russia
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well anyone's sensible and there were
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many sensible American diplomats knew
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that this was a provocative and
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dangerous approach but believe me the
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the American leaders have been arrogant
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and ignorant for 30 years and they kept
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saying we don't have to listen to Russia
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we can do what we want NATO can go where
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it wants we ended up with the Ukraine
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war Trump is uh to his uh wisdom on this
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trying to end it he doesn't want to hold
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a losing hand he knows that this war is
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long lost on the battlefield destroying
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Ukraine and completely unnecessary
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because it was based on the whole idea
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that the United States would push NATO
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to Ukraine and to Georgia surround
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Russia in the Black Sea and that Russia
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couldn't do anything about it but Russia
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said no we're not accepting that that's
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why we have this War I think Trump is
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going to end it because frankly uh
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Americans don't like this war don't want
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to pay for it uh Trump doesn't want to
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hold a losing hand and the Europeans who
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are very warmongering these days cannot
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substitute for us finance and US
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Armament so the war is going to end soon
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and if we look at Ukraine's point of
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view I mean uh you know I want to
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reference that bruising encounter in the
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obal office again uh what president
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zalinski said is that Ukraine wants
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peace but it wants security guarantees
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before a ceasefire leading to what would
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be a comprehensive and just agreement is
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that not a reasonable request well there
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was an agreement on the
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table April 15
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2022 which people can find online which
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was essentially a way to end the war uh
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and it was with security arrangements
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for Ukraine it was with some territorial
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uh concessions or adjustments for
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example Crimea is no way going back uh
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to Ukraine because of Russian security
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needs and at this point after several
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years of War uh parts of Eastern and
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Southern Ukraine are not going back but
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the framework of the agreement was
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already there April 15 2022 the United
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States and UK told the ukrainians on
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that date don't sign fight on and
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probably a million ukrainians since then
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have been killed or Gravely wounded
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because of that stupid advice from the
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US but the purpose for the US was
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actually to have Ukraine fight they
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thought Russia would back down they
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thought Russia would lose they thought
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that American sanctions would kill the
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Russian economy all very very bad
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miscalculations by the Biden
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Administration Trump has a more accurate
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understanding that the war has to end on
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that basis so yes of course there can be
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security guarantees but zalinsky has to
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negotiate he says I'm not giving any
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territory well okay good luck the US
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isn't going to fund this war and you Mr
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zalinski you are ruling by martial law
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your own people want peace right now
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they want peace even with territorial
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adjustments that's what the opinion
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surveys show but we have a you know a
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president who rules by martial law maybe
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for his own personal reasons he doesn't
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want to make any uh peace deal but the
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fact of the the matter is the Ukrainian
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people want a peace deal right there is
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something else as well I mean there are
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many people who feel that President
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Trump is aligning more with the Russian
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President Putin rather than with Ukraine
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or with European allies and this is
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putting a strain on the
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transatlantic uh Alliance uh what advice
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would you have for the Europeans and
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what role they could play in bringing
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peace to Ukraine well I don't see it
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that way I think Trump is actually
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saving Ukraine not harming Ukraine
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because
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continuation of the war is not saving
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Ukraine that's that's the basic
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reality if if Ukraine were going to win
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the war and no way that can happen uh
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then it would be a different matter if
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Ukraine were actually somehow with NATO
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winning the war there would be terribly
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dangerous escalation on the Russian side
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for Russia this is existential so I
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don't believe in any way this narrative
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or rhetoric that Trump is against
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Ukraine I think he's actually saving
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Ukraine but when it comes to the
00:22:03
European side I wish the Europeans would
00:22:07
understand the 30-year background to all
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of this better than they at least
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profess to do right now uh the European
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narrative if I could put it that way is
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that the War Began on February 24th 2022
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that's absurd uh the War Began with NATO
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enlargement The War Began uh uh
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intensified with the US participation in
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a coup that overthrew a neutralist
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Ukrainian president yanukovich on
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February 22nd 2014 the war escalated
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further when the United States in
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Ukraine failed to implement the Minsk
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agreements and on and on yeah so the
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Europeans need to get
00:22:49
their they they need to understand
00:22:52
little bit of history now what should
00:22:53
they do they should open up their own
00:22:57
security negotiations with Russia stop
00:23:00
the
00:23:01
russophobia and negotiate directly with
00:23:04
Russia this is very clear I want to move
00:23:07
now to the other big crisis that uh is
00:23:13
uh preoccupying the world and that is
00:23:14
what is taking place in Gaza what the
00:23:16
United Nations has called plausibly
00:23:19
genocide uh we've seen 48,000 people
00:23:22
who've been killed there tens of
00:23:23
thousands of others who have been
00:23:25
wounded and the territory has been
00:23:26
wholly demolished um what is your view
00:23:31
of what is going on there and the US
00:23:34
continuing to support Israel financially
00:23:38
militarily
00:23:40
diplomatically what's going on is
00:23:42
essentially A Hundred Years War uh how
00:23:45
will two groups uh the uh Israeli Jewish
00:23:51
State as they call it and Palestine live
00:23:55
together what the Israeli government
00:23:58
says very explicitly is there will be
00:24:01
one country that's Israel dominated by
00:24:06
uh um it will be a Jewish State and it
00:24:09
will rule over the Palestinian people
00:24:12
there are roughly 8 million Jews in
00:24:15
Israel and 8 million Palestinian Arabs
00:24:19
and uh Israel which has what I regard as
00:24:22
an extremist Government after all its
00:24:25
prime minister has an arrest warrant on
00:24:27
him by the international criminal court
00:24:30
and his government as you say is in the
00:24:32
dock at the international court of
00:24:33
justice for the crime of genocide so I
00:24:36
regarded as a very extremist government
00:24:39
that extremist government says one state
00:24:41
ours never a state of Palestine but the
00:24:44
only way to peace is what we call the
00:24:46
two-state solution there needs to be a
00:24:49
Palestinian State for the Palestinian
00:24:51
people there needs to be state for
00:24:53
Jewish State for the Israelis this is
00:24:57
obvious this has been what international
00:25:00
law and un Security Council resolutions
00:25:02
and UN General Assembly resolutions have
00:25:05
said for decades this is the this is the
00:25:08
opinion of the vast majority of humanity
00:25:12
but the Israeli government has opposed
00:25:15
it and the United States government has
00:25:18
backed Israel and Israel's approach is
00:25:21
you don't like it we'll go to war with
00:25:23
you and so there are Wars all over the
00:25:25
Middle East but who actually
00:25:28
uh arms these wars and pays for them
00:25:31
it's the United States so my view is the
00:25:33
United States needs
00:25:35
to understand what an American based
00:25:37
foreign policy is and that is two states
00:25:41
and then there's peace I want to
00:25:43
conclude now with the one other issue
00:25:45
Big Challenge uh for the world and that
00:25:47
is the climate crisis the last climate
00:25:51
conference had some distressing news for
00:25:53
us experts told us that we have actually
00:25:55
reached the point of no return as far as
00:25:57
the rate of the temperature increase uh
00:26:00
across the world uh we have President
00:26:02
Trump who's withdrawn again from the
00:26:04
Paris Accord uh what is the impact of
00:26:07
all of this we reached 1.5 degrees
00:26:11
Celsius warming compared to the
00:26:13
pre-industrial level in other words
00:26:15
Earth is already warmed by more than we
00:26:18
committed to stop in the Paris agreement
00:26:23
uh that was reached in December 2015
00:26:25
we've already broken the limit that we
00:26:28
set at that agreement the 1.5° C and the
00:26:33
warming as you rightly note has
00:26:35
accelerated to probably more than 0.3
00:26:39
Dees C Each decade we're in an extremely
00:26:43
dangerous situation Trump is uh so
00:26:48
irresponsible on this one doesn't know
00:26:50
where to start fortunately American
00:26:53
states uh continue to move towards zero
00:26:56
carbon Energy Systems China has an huge
00:27:00
role in the world to play because China
00:27:02
is the lowcost provider of just about
00:27:05
every technology we need to uh end this
00:27:10
huge huge crisis China's the lowcost
00:27:14
provider of electric vehicles of
00:27:17
batteries of solar power of wind
00:27:20
turbines of fourth generation nuclear uh
00:27:23
of battery supply chains uh of uh
00:27:26
hydrogen economy so China has this mass
00:27:30
production at low cost of all the key
00:27:34
Technologies that's one of the reasons I
00:27:36
say expand the belt and Road initiative
00:27:39
because that's the green digital
00:27:41
transformation that the world needs I
00:27:44
would like China to accelerate its own
00:27:47
transformation China is by far uh
00:27:51
installing the most zeroc carbon power
00:27:55
capacity of any country in the world I
00:27:57
want go even faster CU it's so good I'd
00:28:00
like it to reach Net Zero by 2050 rather
00:28:03
than 2060 and through BR and other
00:28:06
programs to help the the rest of the
00:28:09
world do that now the United States is
00:28:12
it's going to squander uh some time
00:28:15
again it's going to lose its Global
00:28:17
competitiveness in these key Industries
00:28:19
but the United States is actually going
00:28:21
to have to turn around and decarbonize
00:28:24
as well as the rest of the world Jeffrey
00:28:26
than thanks so much for being with us
00:28:28
my pleasure thank
00:28:30
you and we need to leave it there thanks
00:28:32
for watching another edition of The Heat
00:28:39
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