I Was Wrong About Bitcoin

00:29:59
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cVa6FQGyNig

概要

TLDRIn this video, the speaker revises their Bitcoin price prediction, now expecting it to reach over $200,000 by mid-2026 instead of the end of 2025. They analyze Bitcoin's technical indicators, including moving averages and the potential for a 'death cross', suggesting a consolidation period of 2-6 months. The discussion also covers the impact of global liquidity and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy on Bitcoin's price. The speaker emphasizes the importance of patience and strategic buying around key support levels, particularly the $76,000 mark, while outlining exit conditions for Bitcoin investments.

収穫

  • 📉 Bitcoin's price is expected to consolidate for 2-6 months.
  • 💰 New target for Bitcoin is over $200,000 by mid-2026.
  • 🔑 $76,000 is a crucial support level for Bitcoin.
  • 📊 Technical indicators suggest a potential 'death cross'.
  • 📈 M2 money supply growth correlates with Bitcoin price appreciation.
  • 🕰️ Patience is key; wait for clearer market signals.
  • 📉 Federal Reserve's actions significantly impact Bitcoin's market.
  • 🔄 Expect a longer cycle due to tight liquidity conditions.
  • 📊 Exit conditions include maintaining above the 50-week moving average.
  • 💡 Investors should be strategic in their buying approach.

タイムライン

  • 00:00:00 - 00:05:00

    The speaker revises their previous Bitcoin prediction, now expecting it to reach $200,000 by the end of 2026 instead of 2025. They analyze Bitcoin's current price action, indicating it is near a correction bottom around $76,000, and suggest a consolidation period of 2 to 6 months before a potential uptrend. They emphasize the importance of not rushing to buy during this dip and highlight key support levels based on moving averages.

  • 00:05:00 - 00:10:00

    The speaker discusses Bitcoin's technical indicators, particularly the 50-week simple moving average (SMA) as a significant support level. They explain how past cycles show Bitcoin typically respects certain moving averages during corrections. The current price action is compared to previous cycles, indicating that Bitcoin is still within a normal correction range, and they expect it to hold above the $76,000 level for a continued uptrend.

  • 00:10:00 - 00:15:00

    The concept of the 'death cross' is introduced, where the 50-day SMA crosses below the 200-day SMA, signaling potential further price consolidation. The speaker notes that while this indicator has a negative connotation, it often precedes a price bottom in Bitcoin's history. They provide examples of past death and golden crosses, suggesting that waiting for a golden cross can help avoid market volatility and ensure a safer entry point into Bitcoin.

  • 00:15:00 - 00:20:00

    The speaker shifts focus to the fundamentals affecting Bitcoin, particularly global liquidity and the M2 money supply. They explain how upcoming events, such as tax deadlines and the US debt ceiling, may create sell pressure in the market. The speaker discusses the Federal Reserve's current monetary policy, indicating that while liquidity is tight, there may be a potential pivot to quantitative easing in the future, which could positively impact Bitcoin's price.

  • 00:20:00 - 00:29:59

    In conclusion, the speaker outlines their updated Bitcoin investment strategy, emphasizing the importance of holding above the $76,000 level and adjusting their timeline for Bitcoin to reach $200,000 to mid-2026. They highlight the need for patience during potential market chop and volatility, while remaining optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term growth potential as global liquidity conditions improve.

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ビデオQ&A

  • What is the new price target for Bitcoin?

    The new price target for Bitcoin is expected to be over $200,000 by mid-2026.

  • What is a 'death cross'?

    A 'death cross' occurs when a short-term moving average crosses below a long-term moving average, often indicating a potential downtrend.

  • What is the significance of the $76,000 level?

    $76,000 is a key support level for Bitcoin, and it is crucial for Bitcoin to hold above this level to maintain an uptrend.

  • How long is the expected consolidation period for Bitcoin?

    The expected consolidation period for Bitcoin is between 2 to 6 months.

  • What factors are affecting Bitcoin's price?

    Factors include global liquidity, M2 money supply, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.

  • What should investors do during this period?

    Investors are advised to be patient and wait for clearer signals, such as a 'golden cross', before making significant purchases.

  • What is the relationship between M2 money supply and Bitcoin's price?

    Historically, an increase in M2 money supply correlates with Bitcoin's price appreciation.

  • What are the exit conditions for Bitcoin investments?

    The exit conditions include Bitcoin reaching at least $200,000, breaking long-term trends, and maintaining above the 50-week moving average.

  • What is the impact of the Federal Reserve's actions on Bitcoin?

    The Federal Reserve's monetary policy, including interest rates and quantitative easing, significantly impacts Bitcoin's price and market liquidity.

  • What is the expected timeline for the Federal Reserve's actions?

    The Federal Reserve is expected to pause quantitative tightening and potentially shift to supporting Treasury securities by mid-2025.

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  • 00:00:00
    bitcoin should reach $200,000 by end of
  • 00:00:03
    year i was wrong about Bitcoin in my
  • 00:00:05
    last Bitcoin prediction video I said I'd
  • 00:00:08
    sell my Bitcoin by the end of 2025 at
  • 00:00:11
    over
  • 00:00:12
    $200,000 but with Bitcoin falling below
  • 00:00:15
    80K and nowhere near my target yet I'm
  • 00:00:18
    changing my mind so here's what I expect
  • 00:00:20
    to happen through the end of the year
  • 00:00:22
    into 2026 and my updated Bitcoin exit
  • 00:00:25
    strategy now I want to kick us off by
  • 00:00:28
    breaking down my thesis on Bitcoin in
  • 00:00:30
    two areas first we'll talk about the
  • 00:00:32
    technicals aka Bitcoin's price action
  • 00:00:35
    and then we will talk about the
  • 00:00:36
    fundamentals which heavily involve
  • 00:00:38
    global liquidity M2 money supply and how
  • 00:00:41
    all of these impact Bitcoin's action
  • 00:00:44
    going to this year i believe Bitcoin is
  • 00:00:46
    near the bottom of this correction after
  • 00:00:48
    it has made its last low around 76,000
  • 00:00:51
    now it just needs time to consolidate
  • 00:00:54
    but do not rush into buy this dip just
  • 00:00:57
    yet i see this consolidation taking at
  • 00:01:00
    least 2 months at most 6 months and I'll
  • 00:01:03
    give you my reasons why welcome back to
  • 00:01:04
    the Virtual Bacon channel my name is
  • 00:01:06
    Dennis i'm a crypto angel investor in
  • 00:01:08
    over 100 crypto startups on this channel
  • 00:01:10
    I share views on market trends and
  • 00:01:12
    investing strategy to build wealth in
  • 00:01:14
    crypto although Bitcoin has dropped a
  • 00:01:15
    lot in the past 3 months it's still
  • 00:01:17
    holding above the key support levels by
  • 00:01:19
    moving average standards in this cycle
  • 00:01:22
    namely it's this blue average line which
  • 00:01:24
    is the 50Week simple moving average now
  • 00:01:27
    from past cycles Bitcoin usually
  • 00:01:29
    respected the 20week SMA or the 21week
  • 00:01:33
    EMA however this cycle Bitcoin has
  • 00:01:35
    turned quite a bit more aggressive when
  • 00:01:37
    it comes to corrections so the 50WE SMA
  • 00:01:41
    has acted as significant support for two
  • 00:01:44
    years already you see back here in 2023
  • 00:01:46
    it got close to this level but didn't
  • 00:01:48
    test it and here in last summer 2024 it
  • 00:01:51
    tested this average level twice and
  • 00:01:54
    bounced from it and now we are very
  • 00:01:56
    close to that level again which
  • 00:01:57
    currently sits at
  • 00:01:59
    76,800 so just by correction standards
  • 00:02:02
    we are still within the same percentage
  • 00:02:05
    of correction on Bitcoin's price chart
  • 00:02:07
    going back the last 2 years this also
  • 00:02:09
    makes 76,000 a key level that we ideally
  • 00:02:13
    want to see Bitcoin hold above which is
  • 00:02:15
    going to be my baseline for Bitcoin's
  • 00:02:18
    uptrend for the rest of this year i'm
  • 00:02:19
    going to dive deeper into this aspect in
  • 00:02:22
    a bit later now let's look at the daily
  • 00:02:24
    time frame which gives us more context
  • 00:02:26
    as to how long this choppy period can
  • 00:02:28
    last even though Bitcoin is still
  • 00:02:29
    holding above the long-term averages of
  • 00:02:32
    50week simple moving average the daily
  • 00:02:34
    charts are still seeing some more
  • 00:02:36
    consolidations to go namely each time
  • 00:02:39
    that Bitcoin has corrected below the 200
  • 00:02:41
    day simple moving average in the last
  • 00:02:44
    two years it took multiple months before
  • 00:02:47
    the short-term moving averages converged
  • 00:02:49
    and touched the long-term moving
  • 00:02:51
    averages which eventually led to a
  • 00:02:53
    breakout into a new trend so you see
  • 00:02:55
    back here in September 2023 and then
  • 00:02:57
    summer of 2024 all similar scenarios
  • 00:03:00
    first you have the short-term averages
  • 00:03:02
    leading when price is going up then once
  • 00:03:04
    the correction comes the short-term
  • 00:03:06
    average starts to drop whereas the
  • 00:03:08
    long-term moving average 200 day and 100
  • 00:03:10
    day start to catch up and eventually
  • 00:03:12
    these converge and even cross over
  • 00:03:15
    before the next uptrend can start at
  • 00:03:18
    this moment the moving averages are not
  • 00:03:19
    crossed over just yet and it will take a
  • 00:03:21
    couple more months for this
  • 00:03:23
    consolidation now when we're talking
  • 00:03:24
    about crossover there is one other key
  • 00:03:26
    indicator that a lot of people like to
  • 00:03:29
    talk about which is the death cross
  • 00:03:30
    that's potentially coming up soon and
  • 00:03:32
    that directly involves the 50-day and
  • 00:03:35
    the 200 day simple moving average which
  • 00:03:37
    are two of the four lines that we have
  • 00:03:39
    on the chart here so here they are
  • 00:03:41
    highlighted and the death cross signal
  • 00:03:43
    simply put is when the short-term
  • 00:03:45
    average the 50-day simple moving average
  • 00:03:47
    crosses below the 200 day long-term
  • 00:03:50
    moving average you see we had the last
  • 00:03:52
    death cross in August 2024 and now quite
  • 00:03:55
    close we are going to have this next
  • 00:03:57
    death cross happening now the name death
  • 00:03:59
    cross really sets the wrong tone for
  • 00:04:02
    what this indicator actually tells us
  • 00:04:04
    because more often than not especially
  • 00:04:06
    on Bitcoin this indicator actually leads
  • 00:04:09
    to price nearing its bottom if it's a
  • 00:04:13
    bull run correction it's near a local
  • 00:04:14
    bottom if it's a bare market then it's
  • 00:04:16
    near the bare market bottoms albeit a
  • 00:04:19
    bit longer however uh what the death
  • 00:04:21
    cross really is useful is telling us
  • 00:04:23
    that prices will tend to chop a bit more
  • 00:04:25
    around these bottom prices before a
  • 00:04:27
    golden cross happens and then uh you are
  • 00:04:30
    much safer to jump into the market again
  • 00:04:32
    so here we have Investopia really
  • 00:04:34
    summarizing this despite the dramatic
  • 00:04:36
    name the death cross has been followed
  • 00:04:37
    by above average short-term returns many
  • 00:04:40
    times since 1992 if you buy on the death
  • 00:04:43
    cross and this is because the rise of
  • 00:04:45
    the 50-day moving average above the 200
  • 00:04:47
    day moving average is known as the
  • 00:04:49
    golden cross and can signal the
  • 00:04:51
    exhaustion of downward market momentum
  • 00:04:53
    so effectively what the death cross
  • 00:04:55
    tells us is that there is a maximum of
  • 00:04:58
    downward market momentum or negative
  • 00:05:00
    sentiment if you will and once the
  • 00:05:02
    golden cross happens that is the
  • 00:05:04
    downward market momentum actually
  • 00:05:06
    shifting towards upward again now let's
  • 00:05:08
    apply this to Bitcoin's chart and when
  • 00:05:11
    you observe the last few death and
  • 00:05:13
    golden cross pairs you see how you can
  • 00:05:16
    trade this properly so here we have the
  • 00:05:18
    death cross happening on August 10th
  • 00:05:19
    2024 at 62,000 for Bitcoin and then the
  • 00:05:23
    golden cross happened on October 2024 so
  • 00:05:26
    2 and a half months later and Bitcoin
  • 00:05:28
    was trading at 67,000 just 10% higher
  • 00:05:31
    but if you simply waited when the death
  • 00:05:34
    cross happened for two more months you
  • 00:05:36
    would have only missed out 10% gains but
  • 00:05:39
    avoided trading both of these bigger
  • 00:05:41
    corrections coming up which didn't mean
  • 00:05:44
    lower prices on a long-term time frame
  • 00:05:47
    but it would have helped you to stay out
  • 00:05:49
    of this choppy market for two more
  • 00:05:50
    months similar back here in September
  • 00:05:52
    2023 when we had the last last death
  • 00:05:55
    cross price was trading at 27,000 if you
  • 00:05:58
    just waited on the death cross and you
  • 00:06:00
    bought back in or took on more exposure
  • 00:06:02
    once the golden cross happened it would
  • 00:06:04
    have been a bit later but still it would
  • 00:06:06
    have been good period to avoid the
  • 00:06:08
    market chop and this would have how much
  • 00:06:10
    of a upside here you missed out on 20%
  • 00:06:13
    of the initial upside but this was
  • 00:06:15
    clearly the start of the new uptrend and
  • 00:06:17
    then if we look at 2021 and 2022 you
  • 00:06:19
    start to see how this strategy really
  • 00:06:22
    works in a potential bare market in the
  • 00:06:24
    first major correction in June of 2021
  • 00:06:27
    if you waited on the death cross and
  • 00:06:29
    then you put back your exposure into
  • 00:06:32
    Bitcoin by the next golden cross you
  • 00:06:34
    would have waited 3 months and you would
  • 00:06:37
    have missed out the initial gains of
  • 00:06:39
    Bitcoin from 36,000 to 45,000 not the
  • 00:06:43
    end of the world but you would have
  • 00:06:45
    still caught the rest of this move now
  • 00:06:47
    some people just want to take this to
  • 00:06:50
    the next level and say I'm going to buy
  • 00:06:51
    on the death cross sure most of the time
  • 00:06:54
    this works but just in case this is a
  • 00:06:56
    bare market or the start of a bare
  • 00:06:58
    market as triggered by the death cross
  • 00:07:00
    less often than not but sometimes it is
  • 00:07:02
    the case such as in January of 2022 then
  • 00:07:06
    if you had bought after death cross you
  • 00:07:09
    would have not been able to get the
  • 00:07:10
    golden cross signal until over one year
  • 00:07:13
    later so this would have been a
  • 00:07:15
    downtrend that you caught yourself in if
  • 00:07:17
    you follow this signal throughout
  • 00:07:18
    Bitcoin's history you start to see the
  • 00:07:20
    same pattern repeat over and over again
  • 00:07:22
    in a bull market correction if you
  • 00:07:24
    simply stay patient and wait for the
  • 00:07:26
    death cross to turn back into the golden
  • 00:07:28
    cross most of the time you get in around
  • 00:07:30
    the same price levels you maybe miss out
  • 00:07:33
    10 to 20% of the initial move but you
  • 00:07:36
    can be sure that a new uptrend is
  • 00:07:38
    starting but by staying patient in the
  • 00:07:40
    death cross it helps you avoid the
  • 00:07:42
    potential of being trapped in the start
  • 00:07:44
    of a bare market and it helps you to
  • 00:07:47
    avoid a choppy period between the death
  • 00:07:49
    cross and the golden cross so that
  • 00:07:51
    brings us to present day once this death
  • 00:07:54
    cross signal actually fires chances are
  • 00:07:57
    we are going to be near the bottom
  • 00:07:59
    prices for Bitcoin which was 76,000 this
  • 00:08:03
    does fit our previous outlook on
  • 00:08:05
    Bitcoin's long-term moving average
  • 00:08:07
    support at 76,000 the 50WE SMA so
  • 00:08:11
    chances are we are near the bottom
  • 00:08:13
    prices but the time frame might still be
  • 00:08:16
    two to three months out down the line
  • 00:08:18
    before we get the next golden cross
  • 00:08:20
    leading to the new uptrend starting in
  • 00:08:23
    my opinion the best course of action is
  • 00:08:25
    to wait for this golden cross to also
  • 00:08:28
    happen in conjunction with the desk
  • 00:08:30
    cross this can give you a much clearer
  • 00:08:32
    signal that the downtrend is over and
  • 00:08:34
    the new uptrend is starting and in fact
  • 00:08:36
    this dip was actually just a bull market
  • 00:08:39
    correction instead of the start of a
  • 00:08:41
    bare market all of that goes to say the
  • 00:08:43
    chances of Bitcoin bottoming out at
  • 00:08:45
    76,000 is high but it's not for sure and
  • 00:08:49
    the chance of us having a more choppy
  • 00:08:50
    period for 2 to 3 months at least after
  • 00:08:53
    a death cross is very high so there's no
  • 00:08:55
    need to rush in to buy this falling
  • 00:08:57
    knife combining all of the TA here's my
  • 00:09:00
    bottom line for Bitcoin's price action
  • 00:09:01
    currently i expect Bitcoin to reach new
  • 00:09:04
    highs this year however I really want to
  • 00:09:06
    see Bitcoin hold above the 50week simple
  • 00:09:09
    moving average this blue average line
  • 00:09:11
    which currently sits at 76,000 as long
  • 00:09:14
    as the 76K level holds this simply looks
  • 00:09:17
    like Bitcoin's typical price correction
  • 00:09:20
    throughout this cycle and we would still
  • 00:09:22
    have the higher highs and higher low
  • 00:09:24
    structure with the previous high at
  • 00:09:27
    108,000 the next low at 76,000 which is
  • 00:09:32
    trading above the previous high at
  • 00:09:34
    73,000 now if Bitcoin touches the 76K
  • 00:09:38
    level and even wicks below it if there's
  • 00:09:41
    some sort of significant liquidity event
  • 00:09:43
    that causes major panic in the markets
  • 00:09:46
    we need to watch the daily candle closes
  • 00:09:49
    and especially the weekly candle to not
  • 00:09:51
    have it close below 76K worse comes to
  • 00:09:54
    worse I would like to see a similar
  • 00:09:56
    candle formation like we had in the week
  • 00:09:59
    of August 5th 2024 where Bitcoin wicked
  • 00:10:03
    below 50K but quickly closed back above
  • 00:10:06
    it i don't want to see any weekly candle
  • 00:10:08
    closes below 76,000 okay moving on from
  • 00:10:12
    the technicals let's talk about the
  • 00:10:14
    fundamentals as I have covered already
  • 00:10:17
    there is currently an air pocket of
  • 00:10:19
    lower global liquidity to last for the
  • 00:10:21
    next 2 to 6 months for a package of
  • 00:10:24
    reasons first in April we have the tax
  • 00:10:27
    deadline which typically acts as sell
  • 00:10:29
    pressure for the stock market and also
  • 00:10:31
    crypto as investors need to take profit
  • 00:10:34
    this month to sell and pay taxes there
  • 00:10:36
    is also the US debt ceiling
  • 00:10:39
    reinstatement that's coming up to be due
  • 00:10:41
    in the next couple months and this will
  • 00:10:43
    require significant liquidity to support
  • 00:10:45
    it and make sure this event is carried
  • 00:10:48
    out smoothly we have covered this
  • 00:10:50
    situation before already namely this
  • 00:10:52
    will require the Fed and the US Treasury
  • 00:10:54
    to drain its TGA or the Treasury General
  • 00:10:57
    account and we are already seeing that
  • 00:10:59
    happening where over the past month and
  • 00:11:02
    a half the TGA account has drained from
  • 00:11:04
    $820 billion now to 360 billion it's
  • 00:11:09
    important to note that when the TGA is
  • 00:11:11
    going down this is actually liquidity
  • 00:11:12
    positive as this is effectively the
  • 00:11:15
    Treasury and the Fed spending their
  • 00:11:17
    checking account to support the markets
  • 00:11:20
    but once this debt sealing situation is
  • 00:11:22
    resolved the TGA A account actually
  • 00:11:25
    needs to be refilled after which leads
  • 00:11:27
    to the reverse situation where liquidity
  • 00:11:30
    will shrink so once you see the US
  • 00:11:32
    government coming out and announcing
  • 00:11:34
    that the US debt ceiling has been raised
  • 00:11:36
    again chances are we'll see the TGA
  • 00:11:39
    account start to rise which is actually
  • 00:11:40
    liquidity negative and this will shrink
  • 00:11:43
    global liquidity further maybe for a
  • 00:11:45
    couple more months of course there are
  • 00:11:46
    currently other events driving fearful
  • 00:11:48
    sentiments such as Trump's tariff that's
  • 00:11:51
    being shifted in a extremely bipolar way
  • 00:11:54
    day in and out and around Liberation Day
  • 00:11:56
    there's a lot of speculation around this
  • 00:11:58
    again I have covered my stance on
  • 00:11:59
    Trump's tariffs already in these two
  • 00:12:01
    previous videos and TLDDR there is that
  • 00:12:04
    the tariffs are really a negotiating
  • 00:12:05
    tool that Trump uses and it's really
  • 00:12:08
    just noise and we should ignore them
  • 00:12:10
    look out 6 to 12 months down the line
  • 00:12:12
    nobody is going to be talking about
  • 00:12:14
    tariffs anymore this isn't a permanent
  • 00:12:16
    situation now around the Federal Reserve
  • 00:12:19
    and what they are doing at each FOMC I
  • 00:12:21
    have covered this topic extensively in
  • 00:12:23
    summary the US Fed has not been able to
  • 00:12:27
    turn on the money printer and support
  • 00:12:29
    the markets by reintroducing
  • 00:12:30
    quantitative easing and they still have
  • 00:12:33
    kept interest rates at quite a high
  • 00:12:34
    level and at best we can have three
  • 00:12:37
    interest rate cuts this year most likely
  • 00:12:39
    we're only going to get two you can
  • 00:12:41
    check out my previous video diving deep
  • 00:12:43
    into this topic on how the Fed can
  • 00:12:45
    potentially trigger a crypto bull run by
  • 00:12:47
    Q4 of this year although the Fed is
  • 00:12:50
    starting to slow the pace of
  • 00:12:51
    quantitative tightening it is not fully
  • 00:12:54
    pivoted to quantitative easing again
  • 00:12:56
    they have hinted at quantitative
  • 00:12:58
    tightening stopping by mid 2025 but the
  • 00:13:01
    reintroduction of quantitative easing is
  • 00:13:03
    not going to be easy the Federal Reserve
  • 00:13:05
    Chair Jerome Powell has publicly stated
  • 00:13:07
    that they cannot do public quantitative
  • 00:13:10
    easing aka using printed money to
  • 00:13:13
    support the markets until interest rates
  • 00:13:15
    are at zero which is an impossible task
  • 00:13:18
    for right now this is why macro analysts
  • 00:13:20
    are projecting a high chance of a
  • 00:13:22
    recession from now until September
  • 00:13:25
    October of this year with as high as 61%
  • 00:13:28
    chance of a recession being announced so
  • 00:13:30
    two ways this can happen either the Fed
  • 00:13:33
    eases up by the summer months as they
  • 00:13:35
    have hinted or something actually breaks
  • 00:13:37
    in the system which will force the Fed
  • 00:13:39
    to act and change their words but
  • 00:13:41
    actually give them an excuse to make
  • 00:13:43
    this full pivot either way we still need
  • 00:13:45
    to survive this period from now until
  • 00:13:48
    September October months where the
  • 00:13:50
    recession risk are significantly lowered
  • 00:13:53
    so TLDDR on liquidity short-term
  • 00:13:55
    uncertainty and chop and potentially
  • 00:13:58
    extreme pain lasting quite short with a
  • 00:14:01
    V-shaped recovery and all of this will
  • 00:14:04
    happen before Q4 because that's a hard
  • 00:14:06
    deadline that the US Treasury and the US
  • 00:14:09
    financial banking system cannot afford
  • 00:14:11
    to extend much longer now there are some
  • 00:14:13
    new research that I have found to be
  • 00:14:15
    very interesting and this comes from
  • 00:14:17
    Arthur Hayes with a recent interview
  • 00:14:20
    that he did on Kyle's channel and TLDDR
  • 00:14:23
    here arthur Hayes dove into the Federal
  • 00:14:26
    Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's statements
  • 00:14:28
    on the Q&A session and when the
  • 00:14:31
    journalists asked Powell why they are
  • 00:14:34
    still keeping the same runoff rate for
  • 00:14:36
    mortgage back securities at $35 billion
  • 00:14:40
    of decrease per month and only slowing
  • 00:14:44
    the decrease of Treasury securities from
  • 00:14:47
    the Fed's balance sheet jerome Powell
  • 00:14:49
    stated that they want the MBS to roll
  • 00:14:52
    off their balance sheet and it's
  • 00:14:54
    possible that even when the Fed reaches
  • 00:14:56
    the point of wanting to keep its
  • 00:14:58
    holdings steady aka completely stopping
  • 00:15:01
    QT it will still allow mortgage bonds to
  • 00:15:05
    expire and not be replaced says Pal so
  • 00:15:08
    how does this even work this seems kind
  • 00:15:10
    of contradictory how can they stomp QT
  • 00:15:13
    and have the balance sheet run flat but
  • 00:15:16
    still keep selling mortgage back
  • 00:15:18
    securities this is effectively stealth
  • 00:15:20
    QE that we have been trying to find out
  • 00:15:23
    for a while instead of openly announcing
  • 00:15:25
    QE and increasing the Federal Reserve's
  • 00:15:27
    balance sheet what Drum Pow plans to do
  • 00:15:30
    is to stop QT aka let the balance sheet
  • 00:15:34
    run flat and at the same time keep
  • 00:15:36
    selling the mortgage back security parts
  • 00:15:39
    of the Fed's balance sheet and this will
  • 00:15:42
    allow them to increase in the same
  • 00:15:44
    amount the Treasury securities that they
  • 00:15:47
    hold in the Federal Reserve's balance
  • 00:15:48
    sheet if they do this it will
  • 00:15:50
    effectively allow them to directly
  • 00:15:52
    inject liquidity into the treasury
  • 00:15:54
    securities market but not actually do QE
  • 00:15:58
    by definition instead they are simply
  • 00:16:00
    shifting the holdings in the balance
  • 00:16:01
    sheet from mortgage back securities to
  • 00:16:03
    treasury securities this is actually
  • 00:16:05
    very positive and could potentially
  • 00:16:07
    start by mid 2025 once they completely
  • 00:16:10
    pause QT okay so what does the timeline
  • 00:16:12
    look like well if they do this pause on
  • 00:16:15
    QT and make the shift to specifically
  • 00:16:18
    support Treasury securities this could
  • 00:16:20
    happen in as close as 2 months because
  • 00:16:22
    that's mid 2025 and we need to see at
  • 00:16:25
    least two more FOMC meetings which will
  • 00:16:27
    take more than two months where the Fed
  • 00:16:29
    needs to come out and say that they have
  • 00:16:31
    slowed the pace of QT and then at the
  • 00:16:33
    next FOMC meeting maybe they announce
  • 00:16:35
    the pause and then it will take at least
  • 00:16:37
    one more month for them to actually make
  • 00:16:39
    this change and start pausing the QT so
  • 00:16:43
    this gives us at least two more months
  • 00:16:45
    of chop for liquidity conditions the
  • 00:16:47
    worst condition is obviously six more
  • 00:16:49
    months of chop leading us into Q4 by
  • 00:16:52
    October of this year but if the Fed
  • 00:16:54
    doesn't do anything most likely we will
  • 00:16:56
    have something in the financial system
  • 00:16:58
    break causing a credit event and by then
  • 00:17:00
    they will have to act anyways so just
  • 00:17:02
    hang in there liquidity will come lastly
  • 00:17:05
    I want to address a specific confusion
  • 00:17:07
    around global liquidity versus M2 money
  • 00:17:10
    supply and their impacts on Bitcoin's
  • 00:17:12
    price i've just tweeted about this two
  • 00:17:14
    days ago sorry to break it to you but M2
  • 00:17:16
    money supply only dropped for the first
  • 00:17:18
    time postcoid before that there is
  • 00:17:20
    literally no signal whatsoever related
  • 00:17:22
    to crypto cycles i was very confused
  • 00:17:25
    because a lot of people did not agree
  • 00:17:27
    with this and they had different charts
  • 00:17:28
    than the one I'm looking at so I dug a
  • 00:17:31
    bit deeper and actually how M2 money
  • 00:17:33
    supply is calculated is actually very
  • 00:17:36
    different based on which website or
  • 00:17:38
    tracker you follow here for example we
  • 00:17:40
    have Bitcoin magazine pro used to be
  • 00:17:42
    called look into Bitcoin and their
  • 00:17:44
    calculation of M2 is actually the same
  • 00:17:48
    as global liquidity so take a look down
  • 00:17:50
    here for their methodology global M2 is
  • 00:17:54
    calculated at this tracker by taking
  • 00:17:57
    into account not only the M2 money
  • 00:17:59
    supply but also the Federal Reserve's
  • 00:18:01
    liabilities and other Federal Reserve
  • 00:18:04
    banks and overnight reverse repo
  • 00:18:06
    purchase agreements so not only are they
  • 00:18:08
    using the readily available cash supply
  • 00:18:11
    but also the Federal Reserve's balance
  • 00:18:13
    sheet and also central bank's balance
  • 00:18:15
    sheet which effectively is QTQE monetary
  • 00:18:18
    policy however when you compare this
  • 00:18:20
    with other M2 liquidity supplies this
  • 00:18:25
    one for example on BGO metrics this only
  • 00:18:28
    takes into account the money supply M2
  • 00:18:31
    supply the official number not global
  • 00:18:34
    liquidity or Fed's balance sheet so why
  • 00:18:36
    is this important i tweeted about this
  • 00:18:38
    earlier today again about this
  • 00:18:40
    inconsistency and how you actually use
  • 00:18:43
    this correctly m2 money supply is a
  • 00:18:45
    subset of global liquidity so global
  • 00:18:47
    liquidity equals to the M2 money supply
  • 00:18:50
    plus Federal Reserve's balance sheet and
  • 00:18:52
    other central banks balance sheet and
  • 00:18:55
    things that the Fed can do to inject
  • 00:18:56
    more liquidity such as the TGA Treasury
  • 00:18:59
    General account which we looked at
  • 00:19:00
    earlier and the reverse repo purchase
  • 00:19:02
    agreement which has been completely
  • 00:19:04
    drained these are not how much money is
  • 00:19:07
    being printed rather how much assets and
  • 00:19:09
    liabilities that the central banks are
  • 00:19:11
    putting into their balance sheet so if
  • 00:19:13
    you are looking to track Bitcoin's
  • 00:19:15
    performance you simply need to look at
  • 00:19:17
    M2 money supply and if it's growing
  • 00:19:19
    usually this correlates with Bitcoin's
  • 00:19:22
    price appreciation you can see right
  • 00:19:24
    here when the M2 money supply shrinks
  • 00:19:26
    Bitcoin's price goes down when M2 money
  • 00:19:28
    supply goes up Bitcoin goes up the two
  • 00:19:30
    are heavily correlated and right now the
  • 00:19:33
    M2 money supply has increased from
  • 00:19:36
    February 3rd until today whereas
  • 00:19:37
    Bitcoin's price has lagged behind a bit
  • 00:19:40
    this is the signal that a lot of people
  • 00:19:41
    are saying Bitcoin's price should catch
  • 00:19:43
    up soon this is a real signal however if
  • 00:19:46
    you're using this same M2 money supply
  • 00:19:49
    metric to calculate alcoins this doesn't
  • 00:19:51
    work for alcoins you need to look at the
  • 00:19:54
    full picture of global liquidity and
  • 00:19:56
    especially important is the central bank
  • 00:19:59
    balance sheet which actually correlates
  • 00:20:01
    to alcoins price appreciation against
  • 00:20:04
    Bitcoin to visualize this we can go on
  • 00:20:06
    trading view and I use this indicator
  • 00:20:08
    called global liquidity index which
  • 00:20:12
    gives us both pictures in the same data
  • 00:20:15
    so right here you have the global
  • 00:20:17
    liquidity index and what you can include
  • 00:20:19
    in this metric so first I'm only going
  • 00:20:21
    to check the M2 money supply
  • 00:20:23
    calculations these last five and you see
  • 00:20:26
    when you compare that with the chart of
  • 00:20:28
    Bitcoin these two are heavily correlated
  • 00:20:30
    over the long term even over entirety of
  • 00:20:32
    Bitcoin's existence this works as a
  • 00:20:35
    signal but if you compare this signal
  • 00:20:37
    with things like Ethereum to BTC ratio
  • 00:20:40
    you see there is no signal here
  • 00:20:42
    whatsoever because comparing Alcoin's
  • 00:20:45
    performance against this it just looks
  • 00:20:46
    like the M2 is constantly going up and
  • 00:20:48
    you can do the same against Salana even
  • 00:20:51
    though Salana sometimes goes up there is
  • 00:20:53
    no clear correlation you can compare
  • 00:20:55
    this with Bitcoin dominance you see the
  • 00:20:56
    two here are diverging all the time and
  • 00:20:59
    here it is again comparing the M2 money
  • 00:21:02
    supply alone against alcoin performance
  • 00:21:05
    so total 2 minus USDT divided by Bitcoin
  • 00:21:08
    you see again no correlation here but if
  • 00:21:10
    we check the other half of the global
  • 00:21:12
    liquidity index what does it give us so
  • 00:21:15
    here we have M2 money supply plus all of
  • 00:21:17
    the central bank's balance sheet the
  • 00:21:20
    treasury general account and all the
  • 00:21:21
    other liquidity metrics not just how
  • 00:21:23
    much money there is in the supply then
  • 00:21:25
    there starts to have a bit of
  • 00:21:28
    correlation but not direct because these
  • 00:21:31
    two have been diverging between alcoin's
  • 00:21:33
    performance versus total liquidity total
  • 00:21:35
    global liquidity since December 2022 so
  • 00:21:38
    sometimes they converge sometimes they
  • 00:21:40
    diverge and this is where it gets really
  • 00:21:43
    interesting and you need to make this
  • 00:21:44
    big distinction if you uncheck M2 money
  • 00:21:48
    supply and you only look at what the
  • 00:21:50
    Federal Reserve and other central banks
  • 00:21:52
    are putting in their balance sheet you
  • 00:21:53
    start to see that these two are actually
  • 00:21:55
    correlated so in the 2017 to 2019 cycle
  • 00:21:59
    the two are closely correlated in the
  • 00:22:01
    2020 to 2022 bull market and the present
  • 00:22:04
    day alcoin bare market that we have had
  • 00:22:06
    for over 2 years these two are also
  • 00:22:08
    heavily correlated the only outlier here
  • 00:22:11
    is the COVID crash that we had in
  • 00:22:13
    January 2021 so this is why it's so
  • 00:22:16
    important to get this right understand
  • 00:22:19
    what metric you are looking at on your
  • 00:22:22
    tracker are you looking at M2 money
  • 00:22:25
    supply where it takes into account the
  • 00:22:27
    top four central banks and other
  • 00:22:29
    countries M2 basically how much money
  • 00:22:31
    they have printed overall if you are
  • 00:22:32
    looking at this this is a signal for
  • 00:22:35
    Bitcoin and Bitcoin alone now if you're
  • 00:22:37
    looking at Ethereum's performance
  • 00:22:39
    Solana's performance any other alcoin or
  • 00:22:42
    overall alcoin season performance you
  • 00:22:44
    cannot look at M2 money supply alone you
  • 00:22:46
    need to look at the other side of the
  • 00:22:48
    equation which is the Federal Reserve
  • 00:22:50
    other central banks liquidity conditions
  • 00:22:53
    this is not the money supply the central
  • 00:22:55
    bank liquidity part of this whole
  • 00:22:57
    equation is what matters for the altcoin
  • 00:23:00
    cycles and this is why depending on what
  • 00:23:02
    you're looking at you may be right in
  • 00:23:04
    tracking M2 but other times you are
  • 00:23:07
    completely wrong in using M2 for
  • 00:23:09
    altcoins so the next time you hear about
  • 00:23:11
    global liquidity mixed in conjunction
  • 00:23:14
    with M2 money supply just know that
  • 00:23:16
    there's a big diff difference between
  • 00:23:17
    the two when it comes to Bitcoin cycles
  • 00:23:19
    versus altcoin cycles this is great news
  • 00:23:22
    for Bitcoin maxis specifically as M2
  • 00:23:25
    money supply continues to grow because
  • 00:23:27
    there's always more money printing
  • 00:23:29
    Bitcoin just continues to go up this is
  • 00:23:31
    definitely true however you can't say
  • 00:23:33
    the same for altcoins and altcoin season
  • 00:23:36
    this newly printed money only matters
  • 00:23:38
    and flows into altcoin prices when the
  • 00:23:41
    global liquidity conditions improve
  • 00:23:43
    which involves central banks actually
  • 00:23:45
    putting that newly printed money into
  • 00:23:47
    their balance sheet and supporting
  • 00:23:49
    treasuries and other assets so as long
  • 00:23:51
    as the Federal Reserve is still
  • 00:23:52
    shrinking its balance sheet you see that
  • 00:23:54
    global liquidity will also continues to
  • 00:23:56
    drop so even though more and more money
  • 00:23:58
    is being printed and increasing the M2
  • 00:24:00
    money supply that's not flowing into the
  • 00:24:02
    Fed's balance sheet and thus not going
  • 00:24:05
    into risk on assets like altcoins yet
  • 00:24:07
    okay bringing back all to the Bitcoin
  • 00:24:10
    price action we see right now even if
  • 00:24:12
    global liquidity remains tight where the
  • 00:24:14
    Fed does not do QE just yet Bitcoin can
  • 00:24:18
    still continue to chug along as long as
  • 00:24:20
    new money is being printed this will
  • 00:24:22
    show up in the M2 money supply
  • 00:24:25
    calculations that you can find
  • 00:24:26
    everywhere on the internet if you are a
  • 00:24:29
    Bitcoin maxi you don't need to worry
  • 00:24:30
    about QE and QT as much the only added
  • 00:24:34
    benefit here is that when QE restarts
  • 00:24:36
    again this only means the M2 money
  • 00:24:38
    supply will increase even faster as more
  • 00:24:41
    money is print being printed at a faster
  • 00:24:43
    pace and thus Bitcoin will simply rise
  • 00:24:46
    faster undoubtedly at the end of the day
  • 00:24:48
    Bitcoin is still in an uptrend because
  • 00:24:50
    of more money printing it's an easy hold
  • 00:24:53
    you can't say the same for other
  • 00:24:54
    altcoins but if you're holding Bitcoin
  • 00:24:56
    nob brainer right now finally let me
  • 00:24:58
    summarize my current plan when it comes
  • 00:25:00
    to price and timeline target for Bitcoin
  • 00:25:03
    based on all the new information we have
  • 00:25:06
    buying and holding Bitcoin right now is
  • 00:25:08
    a no-brainer anywhere below 85K to 76K
  • 00:25:12
    is all a great stacking area we don't
  • 00:25:14
    want 76K to break and especially on the
  • 00:25:17
    weekly time frame even if we get a wick
  • 00:25:20
    below we don't want to see a price
  • 00:25:21
    candle close below 76K we could have a
  • 00:25:24
    few more months of chop on Bitcoin but I
  • 00:25:26
    don't want to see lower prices anymore i
  • 00:25:28
    think we are close to the bottom at 76
  • 00:25:31
    now when it comes to time targets this
  • 00:25:33
    will have to be adjusted if you guys
  • 00:25:35
    have been following the channel for a
  • 00:25:36
    while you know that I have made multiple
  • 00:25:38
    bull market plan videos for Bitcoin
  • 00:25:40
    specifically over the past 2 years so I
  • 00:25:43
    expected Bitcoin to hit $200,000 at
  • 00:25:45
    least by the end of this cycle and
  • 00:25:47
    initially in 2023 I expected this target
  • 00:25:50
    to be hit by the end of 2025 however as
  • 00:25:53
    liquidity has continued to stay tight
  • 00:25:55
    way past my expectations of the Fed's
  • 00:25:58
    pivot to quantitative easing we have to
  • 00:26:01
    be prepared for a longer cycle i
  • 00:26:03
    expected QE to start in January 2025
  • 00:26:06
    leading to a blowoff top in Bitcoin by
  • 00:26:09
    mid 2025 already but we are not getting
  • 00:26:12
    QE until summer 2025 maybe even Q4 of
  • 00:26:16
    this year that means my exit time range
  • 00:26:18
    will need to be pushed back into mid
  • 00:26:20
    2026 to account for at least six months
  • 00:26:23
    of liquidity injection after QE starts
  • 00:26:26
    so with this new timeline I don't see
  • 00:26:29
    Bitcoin reaching 200K by the end of this
  • 00:26:31
    year however I still firmly believe it
  • 00:26:34
    will reach more than 200K by the end of
  • 00:26:37
    this cycle in fact I think this could
  • 00:26:39
    cause Bitcoin to reach higher than 200K
  • 00:26:42
    maybe even 300K by mid 2026 because it
  • 00:26:46
    has over a year to grow from now until
  • 00:26:49
    then taking into account that global
  • 00:26:51
    liquidity is still tight and the real
  • 00:26:54
    excitement in the market hasn't even
  • 00:26:55
    come yet this could actually be bullish
  • 00:26:58
    for Bitcoin's upside potential it's just
  • 00:27:01
    that it will take longer to play out now
  • 00:27:03
    I'm not ready to give an updated higher
  • 00:27:05
    target just yet but this honestly looks
  • 00:27:07
    good for Bitcoin bulls to simply relax
  • 00:27:10
    and enjoy more upside for longer here
  • 00:27:13
    are my three bull market exit conditions
  • 00:27:15
    that I have covered in November 2023 so
  • 00:27:18
    the first one here is the price trigger
  • 00:27:19
    for Bitcoin to hit at least 200K i still
  • 00:27:22
    stand fully by this just not by the end
  • 00:27:24
    of this year but maybe this needs to be
  • 00:27:26
    adjusted higher as well the number two
  • 00:27:28
    trigger needs to be changed i don't see
  • 00:27:30
    it happening in the end of 2025 anymore
  • 00:27:33
    i don't think that's going to be the end
  • 00:27:35
    of the liquidity cycle at least we are
  • 00:27:37
    extending into 2026 by mid 2026 and the
  • 00:27:40
    third trigger here is for Bitcoin to
  • 00:27:42
    break the long-term trend usually this
  • 00:27:45
    is the 200 day exponential moving
  • 00:27:47
    average or the 21week exponential moving
  • 00:27:50
    average now something interesting here
  • 00:27:51
    is that this trigger also needs to be
  • 00:27:53
    changed because the 21week EMA no longer
  • 00:27:56
    acts as the bull and bear trigger point
  • 00:27:59
    anymore since March 2023 Bitcoin has
  • 00:28:01
    dropped below the 21week exponential
  • 00:28:04
    moving average three times already in
  • 00:28:07
    August 2023 summer 2024 and now again
  • 00:28:10
    the last two times this happened Bitcoin
  • 00:28:12
    bounced back above essentially what's
  • 00:28:14
    happening is that Bitcoin is actually
  • 00:28:16
    getting more volatile this cycle where
  • 00:28:18
    its corrections are going as far as the
  • 00:28:21
    50week simple moving average instead of
  • 00:28:24
    the 21week EMA or 20WE SMA so that's why
  • 00:28:27
    I also need to adjust the third trend
  • 00:28:30
    trigger to account for current Bitcoin
  • 00:28:32
    price movements in this cycle we only
  • 00:28:34
    want to exit Bitcoin if it breaks below
  • 00:28:37
    the 50week simple moving average for
  • 00:28:40
    this cycle unlike before where it
  • 00:28:42
    usually only drops to the 21week
  • 00:28:44
    exponential moving average so TLDDR here
  • 00:28:47
    is I plan to hold Bitcoin for longer
  • 00:28:49
    this cycle into 2026 i expect Bitcoin to
  • 00:28:52
    hit at least 200K most likely going to
  • 00:28:55
    be a higher target because we're having
  • 00:28:57
    a longer cycle and we got to be prepared
  • 00:29:00
    for potentially more draw downs this
  • 00:29:02
    cycle as Bitcoin has turned more
  • 00:29:03
    volatile and it can visit as low as the
  • 00:29:06
    50we simple moving average and still be
  • 00:29:09
    considered in an uptrend in a bull
  • 00:29:11
    market these are the direct changes that
  • 00:29:13
    I'm following in my Bitcoin investment
  • 00:29:15
    strategy for this cycle okay that's it
  • 00:29:17
    for this video if you like this content
  • 00:29:19
    subscribe to the channel and let's
  • 00:29:20
    revisit my analysis by Q4 to see if
  • 00:29:24
    Bitcoin has actually made new highs and
  • 00:29:26
    if the liquidity conditions actually
  • 00:29:28
    improves and for anyone that doesn't
  • 00:29:30
    believe in Bitcoin anymore share this
  • 00:29:31
    video with them share it with the
  • 00:29:33
    skeptics and let's see if I'm right and
  • 00:29:35
    Bitcoin actually has an extended cycle
  • 00:29:37
    also follow me on X at virtualbacon0X
  • 00:29:40
    for quick alpha when I'm doing research
  • 00:29:42
    for these videos like the research that
  • 00:29:44
    I have just done 2 hours ago diving into
  • 00:29:47
    why M2 money supply is different from
  • 00:29:50
    global liquidity causing all the
  • 00:29:51
    confusion where people are not bullish
  • 00:29:54
    at the right reasons thank you for
  • 00:29:56
    watching and I will see you on the next
タグ
  • Bitcoin
  • cryptocurrency
  • price prediction
  • technical analysis
  • global liquidity
  • M2 money supply
  • death cross
  • investment strategy
  • Federal Reserve
  • market trends