Is the Premier League’s ‘Big Six’ era finally over?

00:29:20
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J9ZeOawLasY

概要

TLDRThe panel discusses the changing dynamics in the Premier League regarding the traditionally dominant big six teams. Historical context is given, tracing the evolution from the 1980s big five to the current big six, with key events such as managerial changes and financial investments impacting the standings. The recent decline in consistent performance from several big six teams is highlighted, particularly around the 2018-19 season, leading to questions about the ability of clubs like Newcastle and Aston Villa to challenge for top spots. Financial sustainability, player wages, and smart recruitment strategies have become vital, leading to speculation about whether the future will see a big eight or the establishment of a super league.

収穫

  • 🏆 The big six currently consists of Manchester United, Manchester City, Liverpool, Chelsea, Arsenal, and Tottenham Hotspur.
  • 📅 The Premier League era began in 1992, marking a shift in club dominance.
  • 📉 Trends indicate that recent seasons have seen fluctuating performances from big six teams.
  • 💰 Financial power allows teams to acquire better players and maintain competitiveness.
  • 🥇 Newcastle and Aston Villa are new contenders aiming to enter the big six due to strong financial backing.
  • 📊 PSR limits how much clubs can lose, impacting their recruitment strategies.
  • 🔄 Lesser clubs have improved performance through smart recruitment and use of data analysis.
  • 🚫 Teams could 'unbig six' themselves by dropping in performance and revenue like Manchester United and Spurs.
  • 🌟 The future may see a shift to a big eight or even a super league format as smaller teams rise.

タイムライン

  • 00:00:00 - 00:05:00

    The discussion centers on whether the dominance of the Premier League's so-called 'big six' teams is over. Historically, these teams have always been at the forefront since the Premier League's inception in the 1990s, with Manchester United leading during the early years. However, the emergence of teams like Arsenal and later Chelsea and Manchester City began to shift the landscape, suggesting a potential decline in the big six's control.

  • 00:05:00 - 00:10:00

    The timeline of the Premier League reveals an evolution from a 'big five' in the 80s to the recognized 'top six' by the late 2010s. However, recent seasons show a decline in consistency for traditional big six teams like Chelsea and Manchester United, raising questions about their future standings. The speaker emphasizes how this shift indicates that the top six might not simply be defined by historical dominance but by current performance and results.

  • 00:10:00 - 00:15:00

    Recent seasons have seen teams like Newcastle and Aston Villa perform well, accumulating more points than traditional big six teams. This suggests that financial backing from rich owners is leading to a transformation in which these clubs may challenge the established order. The discussion emphasizes that while the big six still have financial clout, their on-field performances do not guarantee their position in the top six anymore.

  • 00:15:00 - 00:20:00

    The state of current Premier League wages between big six and emerging teams points to an interesting trend. Although historically higher wages correlated with league performance, recent data shows exceptions, where lower-budget teams are outperforming expected financial metrics. This comes as a result of shrewd recruitment and management strategies that focus more on data analytics and player development rather than simply spending big on transfers.

  • 00:20:00 - 00:29:20

    In conclusion, the era of the big six in the Premier League may be changing, defined more by performance and less by historical standing. Future divisions of teams could emerge based on financial valuations and competitive results, creating possibilities for a 'big eight' and an evolving landscape where clubs can rotate in and out of elite status based on success in the league and international competitions.

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ビデオQ&A

  • What are the big six teams in the Premier League?

    The big six teams traditionally refer to Manchester United, Manchester City, Liverpool, Chelsea, Arsenal, and Tottenham Hotspur.

  • When did the big six start dominating the Premier League?

    They started gaining prominence in the Premier League era which began in 1992.

  • What is the significance of the 2018-19 season?

    It marked a watershed for the big six as their dominance showed signs of decline.

  • Can teams break into the big six?

    Yes, teams like Newcastle and Aston Villa are examples of clubs that could break into the big six based on recent performances.

  • What role does financial power play in determining big teams?

    Financial power is critical as it allows teams to purchase better players and sustain performance over time.

  • What is the PSR in football?

    PSR stands for Profitability and Sustainability Rules, which limits how much teams can lose over a three-year period.

  • What does it mean for a team to 'unbig six' themselves?

    It refers to the possibility of traditionally big teams like Manchester United and Spurs dropping out of the big six due to poor performances.

  • How have smaller clubs started performing better?

    Many smaller clubs have become smarter in recruitment and data use, allowing them to perform above their expected level.

  • What is the future outlook for the Premier League's big teams?

    Future dynamics may shift the definition of the big six, with larger financial streams possibly creating a big eight or super league type scenario.

  • Is Chelsea still considered part of the big six?

    Chelsea is currently struggling but with smart signings, they could find their way back into the big six.

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  • 00:00:00
    The big six teams in the Premier League
  • 00:00:01
    have been big for some time, but
  • 00:00:03
    recently a couple of them have not been
  • 00:00:05
    that good. So today, I'm joined by JJ
  • 00:00:07
    Bull. Hello. And John McKenzie to ask
  • 00:00:10
    the question, is the era of the big six
  • 00:00:12
    in the Premier League finally over?
  • 00:00:17
    Now John, it's hard to think of a time
  • 00:00:18
    when the big six didn't dominate the
  • 00:00:20
    Premier League. So it feels weird to
  • 00:00:22
    think that that's might be the case now,
  • 00:00:24
    but it hasn't always been the case, has
  • 00:00:26
    it? It hasn't. No. And what I've done is
  • 00:00:27
    I've drawn up a timeline to have a think
  • 00:00:30
    about how we talked about the Premier
  • 00:00:31
    League elite through the ages. I started
  • 00:00:34
    my timeline in the 1980s because this
  • 00:00:36
    was the point at which a so-called big
  • 00:00:38
    five emerged in the in the media. Do you
  • 00:00:40
    want to guess who that big five were
  • 00:00:41
    back in the 80s? Man United. Yeah.
  • 00:00:43
    Liverpool. Yeah. Chelsea. No. No. Uh
  • 00:00:47
    Everton. Everton is one. Yeah. Um
  • 00:00:50
    Arsenal. Yeah. And Liverpool. You said
  • 00:00:53
    Liverpool. Did I? Yeah. Liverpool twice.
  • 00:00:56
    Spurs is Spurs is the final one. So, two
  • 00:00:58
    derbies and the and then Manchester
  • 00:01:00
    United as well. It sort of became the
  • 00:01:02
    consensus that these teams were going to
  • 00:01:04
    be the ones who were going to win the
  • 00:01:05
    league. That brings us to the beginning
  • 00:01:06
    of the the Premier League era. Now, at
  • 00:01:08
    the beginning, actually, maybe should
  • 00:01:09
    have included the big one because
  • 00:01:11
    Manchester United pretty much dominated
  • 00:01:13
    from the beginning of the of the
  • 00:01:15
    formation of the Premier League. Apart
  • 00:01:16
    from Blackburn Rovers, of course,
  • 00:01:17
    Blackburn Rovers in there as well. Of
  • 00:01:19
    course, Big One is also your nickname,
  • 00:01:20
    right? That is true. That's true. But
  • 00:01:22
    then in 1996, something very important
  • 00:01:24
    happens. Arson Wenger happens. Arson
  • 00:01:26
    Wenger happens. That's right. So Arson
  • 00:01:28
    Wenger arrives at Arsenal and then
  • 00:01:29
    suddenly the monopoly of Manchester
  • 00:01:31
    United becomes a duopoly. Um so we start
  • 00:01:34
    seeing Arsenal Manchester United
  • 00:01:35
    switching uh places at the top of the
  • 00:01:37
    table and a great era it was John great
  • 00:01:39
    era but what we start then seeing is
  • 00:01:41
    just a gradual increase in the in the
  • 00:01:43
    teams who are considered the the top
  • 00:01:44
    teams. So by the end of this period you
  • 00:01:47
    got the invincible season of 0304.
  • 00:01:50
    That's the last one that Arsenal win. Um
  • 00:01:52
    Liverpool start getting big at this
  • 00:01:54
    point. So they have their treble.
  • 00:01:55
    Another moment on the timeline, 2003,
  • 00:01:58
    Roman Abramovich, you know all the
  • 00:01:59
    answers, Joe. You know all the answers.
  • 00:02:01
    So Roman Abramovich buys Chelsea and
  • 00:02:03
    starts putting money into them. And what
  • 00:02:04
    we end up with then between 2004 and
  • 00:02:06
    2009 is that the top four era, as we
  • 00:02:09
    called it. You'll remember that era. We
  • 00:02:11
    call it a top four era because the top
  • 00:02:12
    four always finished in the top four
  • 00:02:14
    spots. Between 2004 and 2009, apart from
  • 00:02:17
    one season, 2005. What happened in 2005?
  • 00:02:20
    Leicester City won the league. No,
  • 00:02:23
    Everton finished in the top. That's
  • 00:02:24
    right. Of course, the David Moyes era.
  • 00:02:26
    The David Moyes era. Um, but beyond
  • 00:02:28
    that, in that in that period, it was
  • 00:02:30
    constantly the top four finishing in the
  • 00:02:32
    top four spots. But then it changes
  • 00:02:34
    again, John. Yeah. 2008, 2009, that's
  • 00:02:36
    the season when Shake Manor buys
  • 00:02:38
    Manchester City. So, you've got another
  • 00:02:41
    big money club in in the Premier League
  • 00:02:43
    now. But also, another club actually
  • 00:02:45
    makes a case that it should be
  • 00:02:46
    considered in the the best teams in the
  • 00:02:48
    country, Tottenham. That one's easy.
  • 00:02:49
    That was not even a quiz question.
  • 00:02:51
    That's too easy. But that was actually
  • 00:02:52
    the Harry Rednap era at Spurs. Um I
  • 00:02:55
    prefer to think of it as the Vanva era.
  • 00:02:56
    The Vandervart era. Yeah. Sure.
  • 00:02:58
    Obviously then taken over by Pochettino
  • 00:03:01
    later on and Spurs really cement
  • 00:03:02
    themselves in that in that top six. And
  • 00:03:04
    again I've called it the top six because
  • 00:03:06
    what we're talking about here is the
  • 00:03:07
    biggest teams in the country actually
  • 00:03:08
    consistently finishing in the top six
  • 00:03:10
    spot. So I've got this graphic here
  • 00:03:13
    which just goes season by season showing
  • 00:03:15
    you where the big six teams finished in
  • 00:03:17
    the league. And as you can see 201819 is
  • 00:03:20
    the I think the watershed here because
  • 00:03:21
    up until that point generally speaking
  • 00:03:23
    the big six teams are finishing in the
  • 00:03:25
    top six places. Hence why we're calling
  • 00:03:27
    them the top six. That's why we're
  • 00:03:28
    calling the top six. There are a few
  • 00:03:29
    seasons where Liverpool finish outside
  • 00:03:31
    the top six but they're finishing
  • 00:03:32
    seventh and eighth. And then there's a
  • 00:03:34
    Man United seventh place finish as well.
  • 00:03:36
    There's the outlier season of 2015 16
  • 00:03:39
    which is when Leicester City win the
  • 00:03:40
    league. And after that clearly the the
  • 00:03:42
    the big six sides want to reassert their
  • 00:03:44
    dominance. So we have three seasons
  • 00:03:46
    there where they're finishing 1 to six.
  • 00:03:48
    Um so this very much I think is the top
  • 00:03:51
    six era. The biggest teams in the
  • 00:03:53
    country generally finishing around the
  • 00:03:55
    top six spots. So what changes then?
  • 00:03:58
    What changes then is once we start
  • 00:03:59
    looking at the the the where these teams
  • 00:04:01
    are finishing it becomes a lot more open
  • 00:04:03
    I think. So you can see from 201920 to
  • 00:04:06
    last season there's only one season
  • 00:04:07
    where the big six finish in the top six
  • 00:04:09
    spaces and and we can see there's teams
  • 00:04:11
    actually dropping much lower. So, couple
  • 00:04:13
    of eighth place finishes, but 12th place
  • 00:04:15
    finish from Chelsea in 2223 along with a
  • 00:04:18
    couple of eighth place finishes from
  • 00:04:19
    Spurs and Manchester United in recent
  • 00:04:21
    seasons. And this season is going to be
  • 00:04:23
    a lot starker. If we had that added and
  • 00:04:24
    it was finished already, it would be
  • 00:04:26
    wild to look at. Yeah, because
  • 00:04:27
    Manchester United and Spurs are not even
  • 00:04:29
    going to finish in the top half of the
  • 00:04:30
    table. So, it feels as though there has
  • 00:04:32
    been this shift. And as a result, on the
  • 00:04:34
    timeline, I've distinguished between the
  • 00:04:36
    top six and the big six because it no
  • 00:04:38
    longer makes sense to talk about the
  • 00:04:39
    biggest six teams as the top six because
  • 00:04:42
    they're not consistently finishing in
  • 00:04:44
    the the top six spots. Now, you might
  • 00:04:46
    say to me, well, if we look at the
  • 00:04:48
    period in question, those last seven
  • 00:04:49
    seasons, the big six have actually
  • 00:04:51
    picked up the most points. So, that sort
  • 00:04:54
    of suggests that there is a top six. So,
  • 00:04:55
    we can see that the big six have
  • 00:04:57
    finished with the most points in that
  • 00:04:58
    time frame. Actually, if we only
  • 00:05:00
    consider the last three seasons, we can
  • 00:05:02
    see that a slightly different picture
  • 00:05:03
    emerges because now after Man City,
  • 00:05:05
    Arsenal, and Liverpool, what we've got
  • 00:05:07
    is Newcastle and Villa picking up more
  • 00:05:08
    points than the other members of the the
  • 00:05:11
    big six. So, just to clarify, this means
  • 00:05:13
    cumulatively in the last three seasons,
  • 00:05:15
    Newcastle and Aston Villa have picked up
  • 00:05:17
    more points than Man United, Chelsea,
  • 00:05:18
    and Tottenham. Yeah, that's pretty wild.
  • 00:05:20
    Yeah. And so that that raises the
  • 00:05:22
    question of whether or not what we're
  • 00:05:23
    seeing here is just a randomness of a
  • 00:05:25
    couple of teams performing quite well or
  • 00:05:27
    whether or not what we're going to start
  • 00:05:28
    seeing I think is a change in the in the
  • 00:05:31
    actual buildup of the of the big six.
  • 00:05:33
    Could it be the case that Villa and
  • 00:05:35
    Newcastle who both have very rich owners
  • 00:05:37
    could actually break into that that that
  • 00:05:39
    group of the the biggest teams in the in
  • 00:05:41
    the Premier League? Well, that's my
  • 00:05:43
    question because the the the big six are
  • 00:05:44
    no longer the top six, but they are
  • 00:05:46
    still big as considered by the big six.
  • 00:05:49
    Yes. And it all comes down to money
  • 00:05:51
    because the distinction between the big
  • 00:05:52
    six and the top six is that the big six
  • 00:05:54
    can continue to spend money on their
  • 00:05:56
    squad so that they can have the better
  • 00:05:58
    players even when they take a
  • 00:06:00
    performance hit whereas the top six is
  • 00:06:01
    always based on performance over over a
  • 00:06:03
    period I would say. Okay. So JJ as
  • 00:06:06
    John's established money still plays a
  • 00:06:07
    central role in teams being big but
  • 00:06:09
    maybe in recent seasons a little less of
  • 00:06:11
    a central role seemingly in making teams
  • 00:06:14
    top. I understand what you mean. So I
  • 00:06:17
    have a study of why money is important.
  • 00:06:19
    So there is an established theory that
  • 00:06:22
    uh the higher wages you pay the higher
  • 00:06:24
    you finish in the league. It kind of
  • 00:06:25
    equates over time. So not always exactly
  • 00:06:27
    there. If we look at the Premier League
  • 00:06:29
    wages, what we see is kind of what we
  • 00:06:31
    expect. City, United, Chelsea, Arsenal,
  • 00:06:32
    they pay all the most wages and they
  • 00:06:34
    tend to finish in the top six. This is
  • 00:06:36
    the top six finishes in the past 30
  • 00:06:38
    years. So you can see that that's kind
  • 00:06:40
    of what the top wages are. However, as
  • 00:06:43
    we're saying, this is over time. So
  • 00:06:44
    these are their wages currently for the
  • 00:06:46
    24-25 season. But this does not
  • 00:06:48
    correlate with the league positions
  • 00:06:49
    because as you'll observe from the real
  • 00:06:50
    league table, there are a few anomalies.
  • 00:06:52
    For example, Manchester United and
  • 00:06:53
    Tottenham are nowhere near where they
  • 00:06:55
    should be. Everton and West Ham are also
  • 00:06:57
    having really poor seasons are way below
  • 00:06:58
    where they should be. But Bournemouth,
  • 00:06:59
    Brighton, and Brenford and probably
  • 00:07:01
    Fulham as well are uh performing well
  • 00:07:03
    above where they should be compared to
  • 00:07:05
    what their wages they're paying their
  • 00:07:06
    players are. And in fact, Bournemouth,
  • 00:07:08
    according to underlying numbers, should
  • 00:07:10
    be fourth in the league, which is way
  • 00:07:11
    higher than you'd really expect. And
  • 00:07:13
    this shouldn't really happen especially
  • 00:07:14
    when you consider the money that the big
  • 00:07:16
    six teams have. Now how did this happen?
  • 00:07:18
    Well the reason is because the big teams
  • 00:07:20
    got stupid while the small teams get
  • 00:07:22
    smart. They did things like focusing on
  • 00:07:25
    uh clever recruitment data analysis.
  • 00:07:27
    They brought in loads of clever like
  • 00:07:28
    off- pitch people to help make the on
  • 00:07:30
    pitch people better. They have less
  • 00:07:32
    money to spend on individual transfers.
  • 00:07:33
    So they started looking for value in
  • 00:07:35
    other markets and just finding ways to
  • 00:07:37
    value people higher than other people
  • 00:07:39
    see them. So like the money ball
  • 00:07:40
    approach basically is what's happened.
  • 00:07:42
    And what you see is uh Man United not
  • 00:07:44
    doing that. They focused on the
  • 00:07:45
    commercial aspect. The footballing
  • 00:07:47
    division got left behind. They have
  • 00:07:49
    anecdotally I've read that the their
  • 00:07:51
    data department and recruitment
  • 00:07:53
    department is just desperate and all
  • 00:07:55
    over the place. No one knows who's
  • 00:07:56
    really in charge of anything. It's a bit
  • 00:07:58
    of a mess. And so what you see in the
  • 00:07:59
    pitch is kind of a representation of
  • 00:08:00
    that behind the scenes. And Borne's a
  • 00:08:02
    good example of who's done it really
  • 00:08:03
    well cuz that's little Bournemouth.
  • 00:08:05
    They're very small and on the coast.
  • 00:08:07
    Yeah. Sunny there. You could get a
  • 00:08:08
    lovely tan. Perhaps that's what
  • 00:08:10
    attracted Eddie Mitchell to the club in
  • 00:08:12
    2009. So he started putting things in
  • 00:08:14
    place to make them better, stabilized
  • 00:08:16
    them, got them out of debt. Then he
  • 00:08:17
    brought in a guy called Maxim Demen who
  • 00:08:19
    has lots of money uh and he helped fund
  • 00:08:21
    their rise from League 2, League One
  • 00:08:23
    Championship to the Premier League where
  • 00:08:25
    they are now. They went down again. And
  • 00:08:26
    then someone called the Black Knight
  • 00:08:28
    Football Club, which I believe is owned
  • 00:08:29
    by Batman, took them over and now he's
  • 00:08:31
    putting far more money into them and
  • 00:08:32
    they're currently performing at a really
  • 00:08:34
    high level. Yeah. Now what's interesting
  • 00:08:35
    is that because Bournemouth are in the
  • 00:08:37
    Premier League and they had have a
  • 00:08:38
    little money, you know, had to find
  • 00:08:39
    these smaller players to make them
  • 00:08:41
    bigger and better. But the Premier
  • 00:08:42
    League is very very wealthy. So what you
  • 00:08:44
    have is Brighton who are also kind of
  • 00:08:47
    relatively small club. You'd think in
  • 00:08:48
    European terms. Yeah. I often think of
  • 00:08:51
    things in European terms. Me too.
  • 00:08:52
    Brighton uh brought in more revenue in
  • 00:08:55
    the 23 24 season than Roma. Wow. You
  • 00:08:58
    heard of them. And Benfica is there in
  • 00:09:00
    Rome. And Benfica is in
  • 00:09:03
    Portugal. Lisbon. Lisbon. Yes, that's
  • 00:09:06
    right. But these things are now run like
  • 00:09:07
    businesses. The Premier League is very,
  • 00:09:09
    very wealthy and now you have people
  • 00:09:10
    running them like a business. How
  • 00:09:12
    wealthy is it? Well, the Premier League
  • 00:09:13
    is so wealthy that in 2024, Spurs earned
  • 00:09:17
    more than Juventus and Napoli combined.
  • 00:09:22
    That's how wealthy the Premier League
  • 00:09:23
    is. That's crazy. Yeah. Spurs earn 615
  • 00:09:26
    million euros, but combined those two
  • 00:09:27
    clubs took in €69 million. That's How
  • 00:09:29
    much of that came from Beyonce, though?
  • 00:09:31
    Well, let's find out. Because the reason
  • 00:09:34
    Spurs were able to make that much
  • 00:09:35
    revenue compared to those gigantic clubs
  • 00:09:37
    is that they diversified income streams
  • 00:09:39
    and strategic commercial initiatives. My
  • 00:09:42
    words, what does that even mean? It
  • 00:09:44
    means that they took in 193 million
  • 00:09:46
    euros in broadcasting because the
  • 00:09:48
    Premier League's popular. That's where
  • 00:09:49
    the money is coming from. They watch it
  • 00:09:50
    around the world, Joe. And €123 million
  • 00:09:53
    in matchday revenue. But there's a
  • 00:09:55
    missing bit of money to pick up the
  • 00:09:57
    rest. And that is because they took in
  • 00:09:59
    €297 million in commercial revenue.
  • 00:10:02
    Yeah. Because the big money now is in
  • 00:10:04
    stadiums. I took that picture. That's a
  • 00:10:06
    stadium. Did you? I did. Yeah. Which
  • 00:10:07
    stadium is that? That's the the Spurs
  • 00:10:09
    stadium. Oh, great. The one I was
  • 00:10:10
    talking about. That's relevant at the
  • 00:10:12
    time. It is relevant. And this means
  • 00:10:14
    that because the stadium brings in so
  • 00:10:15
    much money to them that the Red Hot
  • 00:10:18
    Chili Peppers helped fund the signing of
  • 00:10:20
    Lucas Bergville. It fits. It treads,
  • 00:10:22
    doesn't it? It does. And actually the
  • 00:10:24
    stadiums are interesting because that's
  • 00:10:25
    how like teams in the big six had to
  • 00:10:27
    considered. They have big they're very
  • 00:10:29
    prestigious. They got lots of history
  • 00:10:30
    and that's what helps make them part of
  • 00:10:32
    the big six I think. But then their
  • 00:10:33
    stadiums then also help them generate so
  • 00:10:35
    much revenue that they can't really
  • 00:10:36
    leave the big six really because it's
  • 00:10:38
    just going to generate so much wealth.
  • 00:10:39
    And if you look at the big six the
  • 00:10:41
    stadiums kind of correlate with where
  • 00:10:43
    they are as a football club. For
  • 00:10:44
    example, Man City inherited a fancy
  • 00:10:46
    stadium. Then they redeveloped the area
  • 00:10:48
    around it and that's what's come up.
  • 00:10:50
    They're now an established super team.
  • 00:10:52
    Liverpool redeveloped Anfield. all the
  • 00:10:53
    history, the prestige. Yeah, they're
  • 00:10:55
    just made it better. Supercharged it.
  • 00:10:57
    Arsenal built the Emirates, went to
  • 00:10:58
    austerity to do it, but now they're
  • 00:11:00
    enjoying the benefits. Yeah, one day
  • 00:11:02
    maybe we will too. Chelsea are trying to
  • 00:11:04
    build a new stadium with large
  • 00:11:06
    investment funding. That's what the
  • 00:11:08
    club's doing. Yeah, but they can't get
  • 00:11:09
    it right. They can't get it right
  • 00:11:11
    because of the tube. Yeah, because of
  • 00:11:13
    the tube. Too many trains. Um, Spurs
  • 00:11:15
    built a spaceship. Don't really know
  • 00:11:16
    what to do with it. And Man United's
  • 00:11:18
    roof is falling in. It's very wet in
  • 00:11:20
    there, I've heard. Yes. M basically the
  • 00:11:23
    commercial revenue these big six teams
  • 00:11:25
    can take in because of the Premier
  • 00:11:26
    League being broadcast everywhere. It
  • 00:11:28
    means they kind of have consolidated
  • 00:11:29
    power and things like stadiums allow to
  • 00:11:31
    generate even more wealth which means
  • 00:11:32
    that even when they fall off a bit their
  • 00:11:34
    revenue is so high that they are always
  • 00:11:37
    going to be in the big six I would say
  • 00:11:39
    too big to fail perhaps. Thanks JJ that
  • 00:11:42
    was very interesting. You know what else
  • 00:11:43
    is interesting Phil Hey or what he has
  • 00:11:46
    to say. What is it Phil? You'll remember
  • 00:11:48
    Roberto Deserby's reign at Brighton and
  • 00:11:50
    you'll probably remember that it all
  • 00:11:52
    ended for him there in slightly volatile
  • 00:11:53
    fashion. He's coaching mass in France
  • 00:11:56
    these days and you'll be pleased to hear
  • 00:11:57
    that he hasn't changed. At one point
  • 00:11:59
    this season he threatened to randomly
  • 00:12:01
    quit. At another point he refused to
  • 00:12:03
    turn up for a training session and his
  • 00:12:05
    squad declined to take part as a result.
  • 00:12:08
    They're trying to qualify for the
  • 00:12:09
    Champions League and they're under
  • 00:12:10
    pressure big time. To get away from the
  • 00:12:12
    chaos and to find some peace and quiet,
  • 00:12:14
    Derby decided to take his players for a
  • 00:12:16
    training camp in Rome, but he managed to
  • 00:12:19
    time it for exactly the same week that
  • 00:12:20
    the Pope died. Not exactly a break from
  • 00:12:22
    the masses. If you like this story, or
  • 00:12:25
    if you'd like more stories like it, sign
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    up for the Athletic FC newsletter
  • 00:12:28
    clicking on the link below. We'll be in
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    your inbox Monday to Friday. Hey, thanks
  • 00:12:32
    Phil. Hey, so John, we've established
  • 00:12:34
    the difference between the big six and
  • 00:12:36
    the top six. I mean the next natural
  • 00:12:38
    question here is can a team go from the
  • 00:12:41
    top six to the big six. Is it possible
  • 00:12:44
    to big six yourself? Well, as we saw at
  • 00:12:46
    the beginning of the show, there's a
  • 00:12:47
    couple of teams who have actually broken
  • 00:12:48
    into the top six in Villa and Newcastle
  • 00:12:50
    who I think into the top six into the
  • 00:12:52
    top six. Not the big question is can
  • 00:12:54
    they break into the big six into the big
  • 00:12:56
    interestingly enough both of those teams
  • 00:12:57
    have very rich owners who particularly
  • 00:12:59
    Villa actually put a lot of investment
  • 00:13:01
    into their team and as JJ I think has
  • 00:13:04
    really clearly explained what we're
  • 00:13:06
    talking about. We're talking about the
  • 00:13:07
    big six is these teams who have revenue
  • 00:13:09
    streams that are going to continue
  • 00:13:10
    regardless of your performances. So,
  • 00:13:12
    you're still going to be able to make
  • 00:13:13
    enough money to spend money on your
  • 00:13:15
    squad. The big question is how do
  • 00:13:17
    Newcastle and Villa get to a point where
  • 00:13:19
    they're able to generate the same kind
  • 00:13:20
    of revenues in order to to be able to
  • 00:13:23
    achieve the same status. And that was
  • 00:13:25
    the big question, not the top question.
  • 00:13:27
    That's the big question, not the top
  • 00:13:28
    question. Just checking. Okay, good. Um,
  • 00:13:30
    there's an issue here though because
  • 00:13:31
    these two teams do have money available.
  • 00:13:33
    So the the solution here would just be
  • 00:13:35
    well spend more money on your team, make
  • 00:13:37
    them better. Um the issue is is that PSR
  • 00:13:40
    exists. Now PSR as we all know is profit
  • 00:13:44
    and sustainability rules. Profitability
  • 00:13:46
    and sustainability rules. Come on, that
  • 00:13:47
    is so pedantic. Half a mark. As we all
  • 00:13:50
    know, PSR basically means that each club
  • 00:13:53
    can make 105 million pounds worth of
  • 00:13:55
    losses over a three-year accounting
  • 00:13:57
    period. Now that sounds pretty
  • 00:13:58
    complicated and boring. The way that I
  • 00:14:00
    think about it is that essentially if we
  • 00:14:02
    think about the money that's that teams
  • 00:14:04
    are spending on their squads as a river
  • 00:14:06
    coming down from a mountain coming down
  • 00:14:08
    from a mountain. So you you would want
  • 00:14:10
    to think that you could spend as much
  • 00:14:11
    money as you want so that river flows
  • 00:14:12
    freely. The Premier League have
  • 00:14:13
    basically built a dam across that river
  • 00:14:15
    to slow down the the flow of of monies
  • 00:14:18
    into your club. Yeah. The big question
  • 00:14:20
    of how you actually arrive then in into
  • 00:14:22
    the the big six for me is how well you
  • 00:14:25
    can overcome that that dam. how you can
  • 00:14:27
    push extra water over the over the the
  • 00:14:30
    dam into the top into the reservoir. Um,
  • 00:14:33
    two great examples of this. So, we we're
  • 00:14:35
    talking about two teams recently who've
  • 00:14:36
    broken into the big six, Manchester City
  • 00:14:39
    and um and and Spurs. Manchester City
  • 00:14:41
    did it by spending money. They're
  • 00:14:43
    currently going through the courts
  • 00:14:44
    because the question is whether or not
  • 00:14:45
    they spent that money quicker than they
  • 00:14:47
    should have done, whether or not they
  • 00:14:48
    found loopholes to get around the dam.
  • 00:14:50
    Um, Spurs did it through performances
  • 00:14:52
    and actually the the quality of their
  • 00:14:54
    performances as a club being enough that
  • 00:14:55
    then their owner could invest money in a
  • 00:14:58
    smart way in order to justify getting
  • 00:15:00
    all of that revenue as well. So, aka
  • 00:15:02
    Pochettino rose the water level and some
  • 00:15:04
    dribbled over the top. That's right.
  • 00:15:05
    Yeah. He he basically made the squad
  • 00:15:07
    more valuable than it than it maybe the
  • 00:15:09
    wage budget suggested it should be. Um,
  • 00:15:11
    so there are ways of breaking into that
  • 00:15:13
    big six. I would say the question is
  • 00:15:15
    whether or not Newcastle and Villa can
  • 00:15:17
    do it because I think PSR much stricter
  • 00:15:19
    now than it was. So Chelsea bought back
  • 00:15:22
    in 2003 were able to do it relatively
  • 00:15:24
    easily. It's much harder now for
  • 00:15:26
    Newcastle to actually make sure that
  • 00:15:27
    they're pushing more of that water over
  • 00:15:29
    the dam to get down to the reservoir.
  • 00:15:31
    Now I think there's two different ways
  • 00:15:32
    that Newcastle and Villa can do that.
  • 00:15:33
    The first one is by being smart with
  • 00:15:35
    their squad, raising the value of their
  • 00:15:37
    squad by putting in good performances so
  • 00:15:39
    that their players become worth more.
  • 00:15:40
    But the issue is that it's actually
  • 00:15:42
    quite hard to do that. and I would say
  • 00:15:44
    very time consuming. So let's take a
  • 00:15:47
    look at this graph here which just shows
  • 00:15:48
    you how much each team has spent on
  • 00:15:50
    their current squads. It actually was
  • 00:15:52
    this cost from last season but this is
  • 00:15:54
    how how much they've actually spent to
  • 00:15:56
    actually spent. Yeah. So Chelsea spent
  • 00:15:58
    you know 1.5 billion to assemble the
  • 00:16:00
    squad that they have right now. Um Villa
  • 00:16:04
    and Newcastle right down here below the
  • 00:16:06
    the big six. Understandably they've not
  • 00:16:08
    been able to spend as much on their
  • 00:16:10
    squad as they would have liked because
  • 00:16:11
    they're not bringing enough money in.
  • 00:16:12
    Right. So in order to spend more, they
  • 00:16:14
    would need to bring more in. They need
  • 00:16:15
    to raise the revenues or they could do
  • 00:16:17
    it through raising the value of their
  • 00:16:18
    squad. Now when it comes to Aston Villa,
  • 00:16:20
    I think this is a really interesting
  • 00:16:21
    example of why such a slow and laborious
  • 00:16:23
    process. I've got a quote here from
  • 00:16:24
    Chris Weatherspoon, who is our football
  • 00:16:26
    finance writer at The Athletic. What
  • 00:16:28
    he's talking about here is over the past
  • 00:16:30
    five seasons, Villa have spent 652
  • 00:16:32
    million on new players, which is the
  • 00:16:34
    sixth highest in England at that time.
  • 00:16:37
    But if we go back to our graphic, we can
  • 00:16:39
    see despite spending more than clubs
  • 00:16:41
    like Manchester City, their squad is
  • 00:16:43
    still nowhere near as expensive as those
  • 00:16:45
    team squads. So the big reason for this
  • 00:16:48
    is because they've had to sell players
  • 00:16:50
    as well, right? Because if you raise the
  • 00:16:52
    value of your squad by playing good
  • 00:16:53
    football, you can only realize that once
  • 00:16:56
    you sell those players on. Um there's a
  • 00:16:58
    couple of reasons why you might want to
  • 00:16:59
    do that. One, to invest reinvest money
  • 00:17:01
    in your own squad. The problem is is
  • 00:17:02
    that you've got to get that right all
  • 00:17:04
    the time. And even if you did do that
  • 00:17:05
    right all the time, you're only really
  • 00:17:07
    raising the value of your squad
  • 00:17:08
    incrementally because as better players
  • 00:17:10
    are coming in, good players are going
  • 00:17:11
    out. That's right. And the other thing
  • 00:17:12
    that I would say on this is that PSR
  • 00:17:15
    limits exist. So every the end of every
  • 00:17:18
    season, teams have to make sure that
  • 00:17:20
    they've not spent more than they should.
  • 00:17:22
    And so often what teams have to do to
  • 00:17:24
    make sure they bring the their their
  • 00:17:25
    losses down to an acceptable limit,
  • 00:17:27
    remember that 105 million pound limit,
  • 00:17:29
    is sell players as well. And the problem
  • 00:17:30
    is is that to do that, you generally
  • 00:17:32
    have to sell your better players because
  • 00:17:34
    your your better players are going to be
  • 00:17:35
    the ones who are worth more. There is a
  • 00:17:37
    caveat here in that if you sell your
  • 00:17:39
    homegrown players, they make a lot of
  • 00:17:41
    value for you in PSR terms as well. So
  • 00:17:43
    what we've seen is a lot of clubs
  • 00:17:44
    talking about selling uh the players
  • 00:17:47
    they developed through theirmies because
  • 00:17:48
    that's a really good way of getting
  • 00:17:50
    beyond that PSR limit as well. But the
  • 00:17:52
    reality remains that in order to
  • 00:17:53
    generate value through your squad, you
  • 00:17:56
    have to play well for a while. You have
  • 00:17:57
    to sell your players well and you have
  • 00:17:58
    to reinvest that money well as well. You
  • 00:18:00
    have to keep doing it over and over and
  • 00:18:02
    over again. Yeah. So, it's a slow
  • 00:18:03
    process and it's and it's difficult. One
  • 00:18:05
    final thing on this as well is when you
  • 00:18:07
    do this well and you're making your
  • 00:18:08
    squad worth more, you're raising the
  • 00:18:11
    value of your squad, but you're also
  • 00:18:12
    actually increasing your costs because
  • 00:18:14
    to build a better squad, you need to
  • 00:18:16
    spend more on wages. You have to pay the
  • 00:18:18
    players more. And so this is a really
  • 00:18:20
    nice graphic again from one of Chris
  • 00:18:21
    Weatherspoon's pieces where as we if we
  • 00:18:23
    look at Villa and Newcastle, we can see
  • 00:18:26
    that yes, they've had really good
  • 00:18:27
    performances recently, their squad value
  • 00:18:29
    is probably increasing. The problem that
  • 00:18:31
    that has come from that is that they've
  • 00:18:32
    had to massively up their wage bill as
  • 00:18:34
    well. So even when you get it right and
  • 00:18:37
    you raise the value of your squad,
  • 00:18:39
    you're reducing the the actual profits
  • 00:18:40
    that you're making because you have to
  • 00:18:41
    pay more for that as well. Yeah. Okay.
  • 00:18:43
    Now, the other area where they can make
  • 00:18:45
    value, I'd say maybe a little bit more
  • 00:18:47
    easily, a little bit more quickly and a
  • 00:18:48
    little bit more cleanly even, is is in
  • 00:18:50
    competition. So, the Champions League, I
  • 00:18:51
    think, is a massive um example of the
  • 00:18:53
    way that these sorts of teams can
  • 00:18:55
    generate revenue to to be able to keep
  • 00:18:57
    their better players, not fall foul or
  • 00:18:59
    the PSR windows as well because you earn
  • 00:19:01
    so much money from being in. That's
  • 00:19:02
    right. So, that's actually why Aston
  • 00:19:03
    Villa tried to win the Champions League
  • 00:19:04
    this year. It would make sense though,
  • 00:19:06
    wouldn't it? Yeah. And they got to the
  • 00:19:08
    quarterfinals, didn't they? Yeah.
  • 00:19:09
    They're not doing it right. Very
  • 00:19:10
    impressive. Yeah. And as Chris
  • 00:19:11
    Weatherspoon points out in this piece,
  • 00:19:13
    he says, "Villa estimated to have earned
  • 00:19:14
    more than 70 million from their
  • 00:19:16
    exploits, ensuring that they, like
  • 00:19:18
    Newcastle last season, will top 300
  • 00:19:20
    million in income for the first time."
  • 00:19:22
    So we're talking about revenue now.
  • 00:19:23
    Their their revenue stream is is getting
  • 00:19:24
    bigger because they're winning this
  • 00:19:26
    competition. And outside of the big six,
  • 00:19:29
    they're the only two English clubs to
  • 00:19:30
    have managed the feat. So it suggests
  • 00:19:32
    that by going around having good
  • 00:19:33
    performances in the Champions League,
  • 00:19:35
    they're doing a good job of maybe
  • 00:19:36
    breaking into that big six, making it a
  • 00:19:38
    big eight. But the problem here is that
  • 00:19:40
    as we've seen from Villa and Newcastle,
  • 00:19:43
    they've been able to get into the
  • 00:19:44
    Champions League, but in those seasons
  • 00:19:45
    where in they're in the Champions
  • 00:19:47
    League, they've struggled to actually
  • 00:19:48
    consolidate their position in the top
  • 00:19:50
    four or five, which determines them
  • 00:19:52
    getting back in the following season
  • 00:19:53
    now. Well, they don't necessarily have
  • 00:19:55
    the squad depth in order to maintain
  • 00:19:57
    that in the way that these big six teams
  • 00:19:59
    do. So, it's almost unfair. Yeah,
  • 00:20:01
    exactly. And this is why it's just so
  • 00:20:02
    difficult to break into that into that
  • 00:20:04
    big six grouping because they have the
  • 00:20:06
    revenue to be able to protect themselves
  • 00:20:08
    from performance drop offs. Whereas
  • 00:20:10
    essentially for Villa and Newcastle to
  • 00:20:11
    achieve that, they're going to have to
  • 00:20:13
    have basically perfect performance and
  • 00:20:16
    squad recruitment for the next 5 years
  • 00:20:18
    or so, I would imagine, which is
  • 00:20:19
    unlikely. Okay. I mean, the next natural
  • 00:20:21
    question then is if it's very very
  • 00:20:23
    difficult to big six yourself, is it
  • 00:20:26
    possible to unbig six yourself? I mean,
  • 00:20:29
    I'm thinking specifically of teams like
  • 00:20:31
    Manchester United who appear to be
  • 00:20:32
    trying very hard to do that uh and maybe
  • 00:20:35
    Spurs who are also languishing near the
  • 00:20:37
    bottom of the league at the moment. What
  • 00:20:38
    what what's the likelihood that those
  • 00:20:40
    teams will will fall out of the big six
  • 00:20:42
    or is it possible? Yeah, I guess this
  • 00:20:44
    comes down to the question of whether or
  • 00:20:45
    not you can reduce your revenue to a
  • 00:20:47
    point where it becomes functionless as
  • 00:20:49
    because the big six they're able to just
  • 00:20:51
    continually spend money on their squad
  • 00:20:53
    regardless of performances. And I think
  • 00:20:54
    Manchester United is a great example of
  • 00:20:56
    this, right? Because if we look at the
  • 00:20:57
    amount they've spent on their squad,
  • 00:20:58
    that's the third most in the in the
  • 00:21:00
    league last season. And then if we look
  • 00:21:02
    at the wages, you see that they've got
  • 00:21:03
    the third highest wage budget in the
  • 00:21:05
    league as well. So they are spending
  • 00:21:07
    money as though they are a Champions
  • 00:21:08
    League side. Um but they're not but they
  • 00:21:11
    have Yeah. They're not a regular
  • 00:21:12
    Champions League um appearer. I mean
  • 00:21:14
    they're a very irregular Yeah. Yeah. On
  • 00:21:17
    top of the fact that they generate a lot
  • 00:21:18
    of revenue, they do operate at quite
  • 00:21:20
    considerable losses a lot of the time,
  • 00:21:22
    right? So, um, they don't get the full
  • 00:21:24
    benefit that their that their revenue
  • 00:21:25
    gives gives you. And it's worth saying
  • 00:21:27
    as well that, you know, this was always
  • 00:21:29
    their their strength. They were always
  • 00:21:30
    the biggest revenue producer in in in
  • 00:21:32
    English football. They've actually
  • 00:21:34
    seeded that position to Manchester City
  • 00:21:36
    recently. Arsenal, I think, are hot on
  • 00:21:38
    their heels now as well, having had a a
  • 00:21:40
    pretty successful few seasons. Liverpool
  • 00:21:42
    will no doubt start jumping up now that
  • 00:21:43
    they've won the Premier League again. Um
  • 00:21:46
    and that's the issue is that eventually
  • 00:21:48
    uh the revenue will dry up because the
  • 00:21:50
    revenue is whilst it's based on prestige
  • 00:21:53
    prestige is still based around this
  • 00:21:54
    concept of performance at some in some
  • 00:21:56
    sense. You have to perform well as a
  • 00:21:59
    football club to be a popular football
  • 00:22:00
    club. And you know we now relevant time
  • 00:22:02
    period. Yeah. And and we've got
  • 00:22:03
    generations of kids now coming through
  • 00:22:05
    supporting teams like Manchester City.
  • 00:22:07
    So gradually when those kids become able
  • 00:22:10
    to spend money we're going to start
  • 00:22:12
    seeing a shift I think away from from
  • 00:22:14
    that as well. So the big question for
  • 00:22:15
    Manchester United is how do they start
  • 00:22:17
    getting they're in the same situation as
  • 00:22:18
    Villa and Newcastle, right? In that
  • 00:22:20
    actually if you look at the the squad
  • 00:22:22
    that they have, which is purportedly a
  • 00:22:24
    Champions League level squad, I think a
  • 00:22:26
    lot of people would think that that's
  • 00:22:28
    around maybe worse than Villa and
  • 00:22:30
    Newcastle squads. I mean, I think that's
  • 00:22:31
    a easy argument to make. So the issue
  • 00:22:34
    that they're in now is that they need to
  • 00:22:35
    have the cash flow to be able to improve
  • 00:22:37
    their squad in the same way that Villa
  • 00:22:39
    and Newcastle do. and the way that they
  • 00:22:41
    they you know they're not able to
  • 00:22:43
    benefit from their revenue from doing
  • 00:22:44
    that. So it feels like they got to get
  • 00:22:46
    back into winning games again. So it
  • 00:22:48
    does feel very much to me that the
  • 00:22:49
    Manchester United solution has always
  • 00:22:51
    been well we just need to bring in a
  • 00:22:52
    manager who fixes us. If the manager can
  • 00:22:54
    do that then we'll be you know a
  • 00:22:55
    Champions League team again and
  • 00:22:57
    competing at the highest level then
  • 00:22:58
    we'll start bringing in that revenue in
  • 00:23:00
    order to enable us to sort of justify
  • 00:23:02
    the means within which we're living. But
  • 00:23:04
    they've just not managed to do that. And
  • 00:23:05
    I think I do think we're in a real point
  • 00:23:07
    in time now where it's becoming a
  • 00:23:09
    question like how do Manchester United
  • 00:23:10
    get their squad to such a level that it
  • 00:23:12
    matches the the sort of expenditure that
  • 00:23:14
    they're that they're making. A big part
  • 00:23:16
    of that is to do with player sales,
  • 00:23:18
    right? We've talked about how you can
  • 00:23:19
    raise the value of your squad by by
  • 00:23:20
    selling your better players. The issue
  • 00:23:22
    with Manchester United, as we've just
  • 00:23:24
    said, is they have a Champions League
  • 00:23:26
    value squad, but they're not performing
  • 00:23:28
    as a Champions League squad, which means
  • 00:23:30
    they're devaluing their players. And
  • 00:23:31
    this has been a age-old problem for
  • 00:23:33
    them. So if we look at the profit made
  • 00:23:35
    on players over the last 10 years,
  • 00:23:37
    Manchester United is 17th amongst
  • 00:23:39
    English clubs. This is the issue, right?
  • 00:23:41
    You're devaluing your squad and then you
  • 00:23:43
    don't have the ability to then
  • 00:23:44
    regenerate that that squad into into
  • 00:23:46
    better players. So yeah, I think for
  • 00:23:48
    Manchester United really this despite
  • 00:23:50
    the fact that Jim Rackliffe is trying to
  • 00:23:51
    make cost cutting changes, they're just
  • 00:23:53
    going to make a small dent in the amount
  • 00:23:55
    of debts that they have, the interest
  • 00:23:56
    payments they have to make. So the
  • 00:23:58
    reality is is that the only way this is
  • 00:24:00
    going to happen for them is is by making
  • 00:24:02
    those performance changes. And as we
  • 00:24:03
    said, it takes time. You got to get
  • 00:24:05
    things right. It you have to sell often
  • 00:24:07
    sell your best players. Last summer, we
  • 00:24:08
    were talking about selling Garnacho um
  • 00:24:10
    who'd been the probably the the best
  • 00:24:12
    player from the the season before. Um
  • 00:24:14
    it's going to be really tough for them
  • 00:24:15
    to get back to the the level that their
  • 00:24:17
    the expenditure suggests they should be
  • 00:24:18
    at. Well, what about Spurs then? Because
  • 00:24:20
    they're they're sort of struggling in a
  • 00:24:22
    different way. Yeah, definitely. What
  • 00:24:23
    Spurs have done super well, I would say,
  • 00:24:25
    is they've managed to get to the top
  • 00:24:27
    level through performances and then make
  • 00:24:28
    financial decisions that have meant they
  • 00:24:30
    can they can bump their revenue right up
  • 00:24:32
    so that they can absorb a few uh seasons
  • 00:24:35
    of of bad poor performances. The issue
  • 00:24:37
    is is that they're having increasingly
  • 00:24:39
    um poor performances in seasons. So I've
  • 00:24:41
    got again here this is a viz which just
  • 00:24:43
    shows you um Spurs performance against
  • 00:24:45
    their wage budget. So when you see the
  • 00:24:47
    green numbers it means that they've
  • 00:24:48
    finished higher than their wage budget
  • 00:24:50
    suggests that they should. If you look
  • 00:24:51
    at the Pochettino era, they were
  • 00:24:53
    consistently doing that. That afforded
  • 00:24:54
    them the ability to make those smart
  • 00:24:56
    financial decisions. But what we start
  • 00:24:58
    seeing creeping in once Pochettino
  • 00:25:00
    leaves is Spurs finishing below the
  • 00:25:02
    level that you would expect with their
  • 00:25:03
    wage budget. And I guess the big
  • 00:25:05
    question is going to be how do they come
  • 00:25:08
    out of this period and again it's going
  • 00:25:09
    to be performances. They need to find a
  • 00:25:10
    manager who's going to take the the
  • 00:25:13
    squad that they have and make it
  • 00:25:15
    competitive. They've had the lowest wage
  • 00:25:17
    budget to turnover ratio of of most the
  • 00:25:19
    big clubs in Europe, but the managers
  • 00:25:21
    they've had have been able to get more
  • 00:25:23
    out of the players than you might
  • 00:25:24
    expect. And that means that they've been
  • 00:25:26
    able to hold their value. They've got to
  • 00:25:27
    do the same thing again. I think they've
  • 00:25:29
    got to they've got to bring in a manager
  • 00:25:30
    who can get those good performances
  • 00:25:31
    because the beauty of what they do is
  • 00:25:33
    they're not having to sell their players
  • 00:25:35
    every season. They've performed well
  • 00:25:37
    enough to create huge amounts of value
  • 00:25:39
    in players. So Biz here shows Gareth
  • 00:25:41
    Bale. They sold him in 1314. um that
  • 00:25:44
    then gave them the money to be able to
  • 00:25:46
    not sell players for a few seasons. They
  • 00:25:48
    did the same with KL Walker and then
  • 00:25:49
    they didn't sell players for a few
  • 00:25:50
    seasons. So, what they're really good at
  • 00:25:52
    doing is using their performances to
  • 00:25:54
    prevent themselves just becoming a
  • 00:25:56
    selling club and getting into those into
  • 00:25:57
    those cycles where you you end up just
  • 00:25:59
    losing your best players all the time.
  • 00:26:01
    Um but yeah, the big the big question
  • 00:26:02
    now is is whether or not they can get
  • 00:26:04
    back to that kind of level. They're
  • 00:26:06
    buying a lot more younger players now,
  • 00:26:07
    which suggests that maybe they are
  • 00:26:09
    entering the the selling player era. Um,
  • 00:26:12
    but yeah, they've got to get a manager
  • 00:26:13
    who gets more out of those players.
  • 00:26:14
    That's the the long and short of it, I
  • 00:26:16
    suppose. And yet, despite the position
  • 00:26:17
    that they're in, they are still
  • 00:26:19
    unequivocally a big team, aren't they? I
  • 00:26:21
    mean, JJ, to the question that we asked
  • 00:26:23
    at the beginning of the episode, is the
  • 00:26:26
    era of the big six over? I think there
  • 00:26:28
    are two different ways of answering
  • 00:26:29
    this, aren't there? Because on on the
  • 00:26:30
    evidence, on the one hand, as we've
  • 00:26:32
    heard from everything you've said and
  • 00:26:33
    everything John said, the big six teams
  • 00:26:36
    are still the big six teams. The real
  • 00:26:38
    question becomes, is the era we're
  • 00:26:40
    moving into still to be defined by fans
  • 00:26:43
    as the era of the big six like it was
  • 00:26:45
    the era of the top four? Do what do you
  • 00:26:47
    think the next era will be known as?
  • 00:26:50
    Well, I think it depends on how many
  • 00:26:51
    Champions League spaces there are
  • 00:26:52
    because that'll be what the top five is
  • 00:26:54
    referred to and then because there's one
  • 00:26:55
    extra, you make that the six really. I
  • 00:26:57
    think we look at the Premier League
  • 00:26:58
    wages again, we see that there are like
  • 00:27:00
    Man United are well out of it, so we can
  • 00:27:01
    discount them. Chelsea have dropped off
  • 00:27:03
    a little bit this season. I don't think
  • 00:27:04
    they're going to be out of it
  • 00:27:05
    completely. a couple of clever signings,
  • 00:27:06
    they could be in it next season. What
  • 00:27:08
    you're probably going to get is Arsenal,
  • 00:27:10
    Liverpool, and Man City are the ones
  • 00:27:11
    competing for the title with Chelsea, I
  • 00:27:13
    think, for a little while now. It'll be
  • 00:27:14
    a top four. Everyone else below that is
  • 00:27:16
    kind of bunched up, but there's about
  • 00:27:18
    seven or eight teams that are all
  • 00:27:19
    bunched in the same amount of revenue
  • 00:27:21
    who with a couple of smart signings
  • 00:27:22
    could be there. I don't think anyone
  • 00:27:24
    will dominate like Man City have
  • 00:27:26
    probably ever again. I think it'll be a
  • 00:27:28
    lot of swaps, not only for the top three
  • 00:27:30
    positions, but the top seven or eight.
  • 00:27:32
    It'll just randomly change. I mean,
  • 00:27:33
    John, to to you then, uh, maybe the the
  • 00:27:36
    notion here of a top three, top four.
  • 00:27:38
    What does that mean for the bigs? If
  • 00:27:40
    we've sorted the tops, then what about
  • 00:27:42
    the bigs? Is it still a big six or could
  • 00:27:44
    it be a big eight? Yeah, I think we're
  • 00:27:46
    definitely entering an era where clubs
  • 00:27:48
    are going to break into that big six.
  • 00:27:50
    Um, from a financial point of view, I
  • 00:27:52
    think it all boils down, as we've said,
  • 00:27:54
    to performance. So, I think it when
  • 00:27:56
    we're talking about um teams like Villa
  • 00:27:58
    and Newcastle, I think it's if they can
  • 00:28:01
    continue to actually consolidate their
  • 00:28:03
    place in Champions League spots over the
  • 00:28:05
    next few seasons, maybe it will take
  • 00:28:07
    them a little bit of back and forth,
  • 00:28:08
    finishing in one season and out the
  • 00:28:10
    next. But I think um there will come a
  • 00:28:12
    point at which their squads are able to
  • 00:28:14
    compete um both on the league front, but
  • 00:28:16
    also the the Champions League front. And
  • 00:28:18
    once they get to that point,
  • 00:28:20
    effectively, they'll be able to just
  • 00:28:21
    drive their revenue up. uh and once
  • 00:28:24
    their revenue is up that will be just
  • 00:28:26
    form a buffer for them so they can have
  • 00:28:28
    maybe a few seasons where they don't
  • 00:28:29
    perform as well but still spend the same
  • 00:28:31
    amount of money on their squad. So yeah,
  • 00:28:33
    I think we're in the era of probably I'd
  • 00:28:35
    say the top top three I think those are
  • 00:28:37
    the teams that are going to challenge
  • 00:28:38
    for titles but I think we're entering an
  • 00:28:40
    era of maybe a big eight or so. Um but I
  • 00:28:43
    guess the big question is at the end at
  • 00:28:45
    some point all of the Premier League
  • 00:28:46
    teams are just going to slowly be
  • 00:28:48
    consumed in this in this big group. So
  • 00:28:50
    then the question becomes where do we
  • 00:28:52
    start determining the differences
  • 00:28:53
    between that or does do we just simply
  • 00:28:55
    mean that the Premier League has arrived
  • 00:28:56
    as a super league at that at that
  • 00:28:57
    instance. I think you'll find actually
  • 00:28:58
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タグ
  • Premier League
  • big six
  • football
  • revenue
  • PSR
  • Newcastle
  • Aston Villa
  • historical performance
  • financial dynamics
  • club recruitment