How science fiction can help predict the future - Roey Tzezana

00:05:22
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=paXKoZ1pr5w

概要

TLDRThe video explores the role of futurists in predicting the future by analyzing societal trends and movements. It highlights the historical accuracy of some predictions made by futurists, such as those by the RAND Corporation, and discusses the limitations of forecasting due to unforeseen discoveries. The video emphasizes the importance of science fiction as a tool for envisioning the future, citing examples of authors like Jules Verne and Arthur C. Clarke who have accurately predicted technological advancements. It concludes by stating that while the future is uncertain, it is our responsibility to shape it based on the possibilities presented by science fiction.

収穫

  • 🔮 Futurists analyze trends to predict the future.
  • 📈 Some predictions have proven surprisingly accurate.
  • 📚 Science fiction helps envision future possibilities.
  • 🧪 Unforeseen discoveries can change our understanding.
  • 🌌 Notable authors have accurately predicted technologies.
  • 🤖 The iKnow project explores sci-fi-like scenarios.
  • 🧠 Our responsibility is to shape the future we want.
  • 🧬 Advanced technology may seem magical to the uninitiated.
  • 📖 Science fiction combines entertainment with social commentary.
  • 🌍 The future is uncertain, but possibilities abound.

タイムライン

  • 00:00:00 - 00:05:22

    The video discusses the role of futurists in predicting the future, highlighting their methods of analyzing societal trends and movements. It mentions the RAND Corporation's successful forecasts in the mid-20th century, including technologies like artificial organs and birth control pills. The limitations of predicting the future are acknowledged, emphasizing the unpredictability of scientific discoveries. The video also references Arthur C. Clarke's idea that advanced technology can seem like magic, and it raises the question of how to prepare for an uncertain future. It suggests that science fiction, which emerged during the Industrial Revolution, can help envision future possibilities, citing examples from authors like Aldous Huxley and Ray Bradbury. The video concludes by stating that while the future is uncertain, science fiction offers various possibilities, and it is up to us to shape which of these possibilities we pursue.

マインドマップ

ビデオQ&A

  • What do futurists do?

    Futurists attempt to forecast the future by analyzing societal trends and movements.

  • How accurate are futurists' predictions?

    Some futurists have been able to predict technologies with surprising accuracy.

  • What is the role of science fiction in predicting the future?

    Science fiction serves as a tool for thinking outside the box and exploring possibilities for the future.

  • Can we know the future with certainty?

    No, there are always unforeseen discoveries that can change our understanding of the future.

  • Who are some notable science fiction authors mentioned?

    Jules Verne, H.G. Wells, Aldous Huxley, Ray Bradbury, and Arthur C. Clarke.

  • What is the iKnow project?

    The iKnow project proposes scenarios that resemble science fiction stories.

  • What is the significance of the RAND Corporation?

    The RAND Corporation consulted scientists and futurists to forecast technologies in the mid-20th century.

  • What does Arthur C. Clarke's quote imply?

    It suggests that advanced technology may seem magical to those who do not understand it.

  • What is the responsibility of society regarding the future?

    It is our responsibility to determine which possibilities we will work towards making a reality.

  • What are some examples of accurate predictions in science fiction?

    Predictions include antidepressants in 'Brave New World' and earbuds in 'Fahrenheit 451'.

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  • 00:00:07
    Would you like to know what's in our future?
  • 00:00:10
    What's going to happen tomorrow, next year, or even a millennium from now?
  • 00:00:14
    Well, you're not alone.
  • 00:00:16
    Everyone from governments to militaries to industry leaders do, as well,
  • 00:00:20
    and they all employ people called futurists
  • 00:00:23
    who attempt to forecast the future.
  • 00:00:26
    Some are able to do this with surprising accuracy.
  • 00:00:29
    In the middle of the 20th century,
  • 00:00:30
    a think tank known as the RAND Corporation
  • 00:00:33
    consulted dozens of scientists and futurists
  • 00:00:36
    who together forecast many of the technologies
  • 00:00:38
    we take for granted today,
  • 00:00:41
    including artificial organs,
  • 00:00:42
    the use of birth control pills,
  • 00:00:44
    and libraries able to look up research material for the reader.
  • 00:00:49
    One way futurists arrive at their predictions
  • 00:00:52
    is by analyzing movements and trends in society,
  • 00:00:55
    and charting the paths they are likely to follow into the future
  • 00:00:59
    with varying degrees of probability.
  • 00:01:01
    Their work informs the decisions of policymakers and world leaders,
  • 00:01:06
    enabling them to weigh options for the future
  • 00:01:09
    that otherwise could not have been imagined in such depth or detail.
  • 00:01:13
    Of course, there are obvious limits to how certain anyone can be about the future.
  • 00:01:18
    There are always unimaginable discoveries that arise
  • 00:01:21
    which would make no sense to anyone in the present.
  • 00:01:24
    Imagine, for example,
  • 00:01:25
    transporting a physicist from the middle of the 19th century
  • 00:01:30
    into the 21st.
  • 00:01:33
    You explain to him that a strange material exists, Uranium 235,
  • 00:01:37
    that of its own accord can produce enough energy to power an entire city,
  • 00:01:42
    or destroy it one fell swoop.
  • 00:01:45
    "How can such energy come from nowhere?" he would demand to know.
  • 00:01:48
    "That's not science, that's magic."
  • 00:01:51
    And for all intents and purposes, he would be right.
  • 00:01:53
    His 19th century grasp of science
  • 00:01:55
    includes no knowledge of radioactivity or nuclear physics.
  • 00:02:00
    In his day, no forecast of the future could have predicted X-rays,
  • 00:02:04
    or the atom bomb,
  • 00:02:05
    let alone the theory of relativity
  • 00:02:07
    or quantum mechanics.
  • 00:02:09
    As Arthur C. Clarke has said,
  • 00:02:11
    "Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic."
  • 00:02:15
    How can we prepare, then, for a future that will be as magical to us
  • 00:02:19
    as our present would appear to someone from the 19th century?
  • 00:02:23
    We may think our modern technology and advanced data analysis techniques
  • 00:02:27
    might allow us to predict the future with much more accuracy
  • 00:02:31
    than our 19th century counterpart,
  • 00:02:33
    and rightly so.
  • 00:02:34
    However, it's also true that our technological progress
  • 00:02:38
    has brought with it new increasingly complex and unpredictable challenges.
  • 00:02:43
    The stakes for future generations to be able to imagine the unimaginable
  • 00:02:47
    are higher than ever before.
  • 00:02:49
    So the question remains:
  • 00:02:51
    how do we do that?
  • 00:02:53
    One promising answer has actually been with us since the 19th century
  • 00:02:56
    and the Industrial Revolution
  • 00:02:58
    that laid the foundation for our modern world.
  • 00:03:01
    During this time of explosive development and invention,
  • 00:03:04
    a new form of literature, science fiction, also emerged.
  • 00:03:08
    Inspired by the innovations of the day, Jules Verne, H.G. Wells,
  • 00:03:12
    and other prolific thinkers explored fantastic scenarios,
  • 00:03:16
    depicting new frontiers of human endeavor.
  • 00:03:19
    And throughout the 20th century and into the 21st,
  • 00:03:22
    storytellers have continued to share their visions of the future
  • 00:03:26
    and correctly predicted many aspects of the world we inhabit decades later.
  • 00:03:31
    In "Brave New World,"
  • 00:03:32
    Aldous Huxley foretold the use of antidepressants in 1932,
  • 00:03:37
    long before such medication became popular.
  • 00:03:40
    In 1953, Ray Bradbury's "Fahrenheit 451," forecast earbuds,
  • 00:03:45
    "thimble radios," in his words.
  • 00:03:48
    And in "2001: A Space Odyssey,"
  • 00:03:50
    Arthur C. Clarke described a portable, flat-screen news pad in 1968.
  • 00:03:58
    In works that often combine entertainment and social commentary,
  • 00:04:01
    we are invited to suspend our disbelief and consider the consequences
  • 00:04:05
    of radical shifts in familiar and deeply engrained institutions.
  • 00:04:10
    In this sense,
  • 00:04:11
    the best science fiction fulfills the words of philosopher Michel Foucault,
  • 00:04:15
    "I'm no prophet. My job is making windows where there were once walls."
  • 00:04:20
    Free from the constraints of the present and our assumptions of what's impossible,
  • 00:04:25
    science fiction serves as a useful tool for thinking outside of the box.
  • 00:04:30
    Many futurists recognize this,
  • 00:04:32
    and some are beginning to employ science fictions writers in their teams.
  • 00:04:36
    Just recently, a project called iKnow proposed scenarios
  • 00:04:40
    that look much like science fiction stories.
  • 00:04:43
    They include the discovery of an alien civilization,
  • 00:04:45
    development of a way for humans and animals to communicate flawlessly,
  • 00:04:50
    and radical life extension.
  • 00:04:52
    So, what does the future hold?
  • 00:04:55
    Of course, we can't know for certain,
  • 00:04:57
    but science fiction shows us many possibilities.
  • 00:05:00
    Ultimately, it is our responsibility
  • 00:05:02
    to determine which we will work towards making a reality.
タグ
  • futurists
  • predictions
  • science fiction
  • technology
  • RAND Corporation
  • societal trends
  • unforeseen discoveries
  • Jules Verne
  • Arthur C. Clarke
  • responsibility