This Will Happen If Nvidia Fails To Deliver

00:31:10
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dlNneT-6-iU

概要

TLDRIn this video, the speaker discusses the current state of the stock market, particularly focusing on Nvidia's upcoming earnings report and its implications for investors. The conversation highlights the mixed economic data affecting market sentiment, the influence of interest rates, and the ongoing situation with Bitcoin and tariffs. The speaker analyzes Nvidia's performance, its significant market cap, and the potential impact of chip export restrictions from China. Additionally, the video emphasizes the importance of both technical and fundamental analysis in trading strategies, while also addressing concerns about market manipulation and the need for traders to prepare for Nvidia's earnings report. Overall, the video provides insights into the complexities of the stock market and the factors influencing investor behavior.

収穫

  • 📈 Nvidia's earnings report is crucial for market sentiment.
  • 💰 Bitcoin's lack of movement raises questions about investor confidence.
  • 📊 Interest rates are expected to remain high for longer.
  • 🔍 Understanding both technical and fundamental analysis is key to trading.
  • ⚠️ Potential market manipulation could affect stock prices.
  • 🇨🇳 Nvidia faces challenges due to chip export restrictions from China.
  • 📉 Economic data shows mixed signals for investors.
  • 💡 Traders should prepare for volatility around earnings announcements.
  • 📈 Nvidia's market cap plays a significant role in the tech sector.
  • 🔄 Backtesting helps traders develop intuition and understand market behavior.

タイムライン

  • 00:00:00 - 00:05:00

    The speaker discusses the current state of the market, particularly focusing on Nvidia's potential impact on the stock market and the ongoing interest in Bitcoin. They highlight the mixed economic data and the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates, suggesting that the market is optimistic despite concerns about tariffs and the US deficit.

  • 00:05:00 - 00:10:00

    The conversation shifts to Nvidia's earnings and the challenges it faces due to chip export restrictions to China, which could affect its revenue. The speaker emphasizes the importance of understanding Nvidia's quarterly earnings and the potential impact of its business dealings in the Middle East.

  • 00:10:00 - 00:15:00

    The speaker analyzes Nvidia's stock performance, noting impressive earnings growth in previous quarters but a slowdown expected in future earnings. They stress the importance of consistent growth in earnings and sales for a stock to be considered a good investment.

  • 00:15:00 - 00:20:00

    The discussion moves to the NASDAQ's performance and the speaker's trading strategies, including specific entry points for trades. They share their successful trading results and emphasize the importance of understanding market movements and setups for profitable trading.

  • 00:20:00 - 00:25:00

    The speaker warns about potential market manipulation and the relationship between Nvidia's earnings and Bitcoin's price action. They suggest that Bitcoin's lack of movement could indicate investor caution ahead of Nvidia's earnings announcement.

  • 00:25:00 - 00:31:10

    The speaker concludes by discussing the importance of understanding trading strategies, backtesting, and developing intuition in trading. They encourage viewers to keep an eye on Nvidia and the overall market dynamics as they prepare for future trading opportunities.

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ビデオQ&A

  • What is the main focus of the video?

    The video focuses on Nvidia's upcoming earnings report and its potential impact on the stock market.

  • How does the speaker view the current state of Bitcoin?

    The speaker notes that Bitcoin has not moved significantly despite positive market conditions, suggesting it may be lagging behind other assets.

  • What are the key factors affecting the stock market according to the speaker?

    Key factors include interest rates, economic data, and geopolitical events such as tariffs.

  • What trading strategies does the speaker recommend?

    The speaker emphasizes the importance of understanding both technical and fundamental analysis when trading.

  • What is the significance of Nvidia's market cap?

    Nvidia's market cap is significant as it plays a crucial role in holding the market and influencing investor sentiment.

  • What does the speaker say about the relationship between Nvidia and China?

    The speaker mentions that Nvidia is facing chip export restrictions from China, which could impact its revenue.

  • How does the speaker suggest traders prepare for Nvidia's earnings report?

    Traders are advised to build positions before the market closes in anticipation of Nvidia's earnings.

  • What does the speaker think about the current interest rates?

    The speaker indicates that interest rates are expected to remain high for longer, affecting market dynamics.

  • What is the speaker's opinion on market manipulation?

    The speaker raises concerns about potential market manipulation, especially in relation to Nvidia's stock.

  • What is the importance of backtesting in trading?

    Backtesting helps traders develop intuition and understand market behavior based on historical data.

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  • 00:00:02
    So interesting day. Bit boring if I'm
  • 00:00:06
    quite frank with you. Of course, this
  • 00:00:08
    Treasury story about Trump media and
  • 00:00:11
    this $2.5
  • 00:00:13
    billion capital raising that it's trying
  • 00:00:16
    to get from investors. Isn't it mad how
  • 00:00:18
    they all want to borrow money to buy
  • 00:00:22
    Bitcoin? No one's pulling it out their
  • 00:00:24
    pockets and saying, "You know what? I'm
  • 00:00:26
    going to buy it myself." Either way,
  • 00:00:28
    they're buying the Bitcoin, so that's
  • 00:00:29
    good news. Now, what are we going to
  • 00:00:32
    talk about this
  • 00:00:33
    evening? What if
  • 00:00:35
    Nvidia blops? But what if they don't?
  • 00:00:39
    Now, I'm going to break it all down for
  • 00:00:41
    you, and I'm going to help you
  • 00:00:43
    understand what to look for when it
  • 00:00:45
    comes to identifying whether a stock is
  • 00:00:48
    good in terms of its fundamentals and of
  • 00:00:51
    course its technical aspect, in terms of
  • 00:00:54
    the charts. All right? So, that's going
  • 00:00:57
    to help us understand if this rally to
  • 00:01:00
    the upside with the markets is going to
  • 00:01:02
    be sustained yet again by another tech
  • 00:01:07
    stock. Well, it's the only tech stock to
  • 00:01:09
    be honest with you, ladies and
  • 00:01:10
    gentlemen. Nvidia's nearly $3.5 trillion
  • 00:01:14
    market cap does really well to hold the
  • 00:01:18
    marketplace. I mean, today Tesla's made
  • 00:01:20
    a nice little move to the upside only
  • 00:01:22
    because Elon's quitting politics and
  • 00:01:25
    he's going to be going back to focusing
  • 00:01:27
    on Tesla. He's going to be paying
  • 00:01:29
    attention to that and hopefully a few
  • 00:01:31
    meme coins. But anyway, that's another
  • 00:01:34
    story. Bitcoin today didn't really do
  • 00:01:36
    too much. All right, going to break it
  • 00:01:38
    all down for you and let's just see by
  • 00:01:42
    the end of this live if you are going to
  • 00:01:45
    be with me on this story on whether or
  • 00:01:47
    not Nvidia is going to be doing a market
  • 00:01:50
    a favor
  • 00:01:51
    or we're witnessing some
  • 00:01:55
    manipulation. Let's break it all down,
  • 00:01:57
    ladies and gentlemen. Here we go. So S&P
  • 00:02:00
    climbs 2% on economic and trade
  • 00:02:03
    optimism. What does it all mean?
  • 00:02:06
    Right, look today we got this data. What
  • 00:02:09
    a what a mixup, man. Like this is this
  • 00:02:14
    is the Federal Reserve's dream, right?
  • 00:02:17
    Like every time they say that the
  • 00:02:20
    economy is doing good and then there's
  • 00:02:22
    the expectation that investors are
  • 00:02:24
    believing it's not going to be doing
  • 00:02:26
    good and then the results come out and
  • 00:02:28
    show that it is doing good. I
  • 00:02:30
    mean, say goodbye to your interest rate
  • 00:02:34
    cuts cuz it's just not happening. Ladies
  • 00:02:36
    and gentlemen, here we are right now
  • 00:02:37
    with this slow loading madness. Come on.
  • 00:02:42
    97.9 is it? What is it? There we go. 94.
  • 00:02:46
    It actually has come down a couple of
  • 00:02:48
    percent or so. So, but it's still going
  • 00:02:51
    to be at 4.25 4.5%. Yep. True rate 4.3%.
  • 00:02:56
    That's what the rate is right now
  • 00:02:58
    roughly. But yeah, investors are still
  • 00:03:01
    on the expectation that interest rates
  • 00:03:03
    going to stay higher for longer. Now,
  • 00:03:04
    with the data that's come out right now,
  • 00:03:06
    you can see that 74% are still favoring
  • 00:03:08
    the idea of a 4.25 4.5% gain um sorry um
  • 00:03:13
    chance that they're going to keep the
  • 00:03:14
    interest rates at those rates. So, it's
  • 00:03:18
    it's not really changing the scene, but
  • 00:03:21
    the market today welcomed it. Okay. Of
  • 00:03:24
    course, Trump has had the conversation
  • 00:03:26
    and he's trying to urge the Euro zone to
  • 00:03:29
    make a deal. Otherwise, it's a nice slap
  • 00:03:31
    across the face with a 50% tariff. I
  • 00:03:34
    don't think the Euro zone wants that.
  • 00:03:35
    But one thing you got to take into
  • 00:03:36
    consideration is, as I said earlier on,
  • 00:03:39
    the Euro itself is being used in two
  • 00:03:41
    ways. There's the reaction from
  • 00:03:43
    investors regarding the tariff. Sorry,
  • 00:03:45
    three. The reactions from investors
  • 00:03:47
    regarding the tariffs. the fact that the
  • 00:03:49
    ECB today, one of the speakers come out
  • 00:03:52
    saying that there is a possibility
  • 00:03:53
    they're going to be hiking the interest
  • 00:03:55
    rates, cutting the interest rates even
  • 00:03:56
    more.
  • 00:03:57
    Okay. Third, the euro is a safe haven
  • 00:04:00
    right now. And of course, optimism in
  • 00:04:02
    the dollar and the story behind the US
  • 00:04:04
    deficit. See, like that's all been
  • 00:04:06
    forgotten about. Now, look, titles like
  • 00:04:08
    this are saying, look, S&P's climbing
  • 00:04:10
    up. No one seems to be worried about the
  • 00:04:11
    deficit. Going over into price action
  • 00:04:13
    itself, you can see that the 10-year
  • 00:04:15
    bonds have done relatively well, trading
  • 00:04:17
    47% for the day. Yields have come down
  • 00:04:20
    today. So, if the yields are trading
  • 00:04:21
    negative, the stock market tends to
  • 00:04:23
    perform well in that instance. But now,
  • 00:04:26
    let's just get to the beef of it all and
  • 00:04:28
    understand exactly what the story is.
  • 00:04:30
    So, it says here that Nvidia is going to
  • 00:04:32
    be hit by ch to be hit by China chip
  • 00:04:36
    export curves or it's going to deliver a
  • 00:04:39
    surprise in its quarterly earnings. Now,
  • 00:04:41
    let's just understand
  • 00:04:43
    something. Trump's been going on about
  • 00:04:45
    these tariffs with China. He's been
  • 00:04:47
    stopping Nvidia from trying to do
  • 00:04:49
    business with certain chips to China.
  • 00:04:51
    He's already now gunning for Apple, with
  • 00:04:54
    users of iPhones in the Euro zone and
  • 00:04:56
    what have you. It's this is naturally
  • 00:04:59
    going to have an impact on investors.
  • 00:05:01
    Okay. Now the story here is suggesting
  • 00:05:04
    that even though the curbs on the actual
  • 00:05:07
    chips that Nvidia is able to sell to
  • 00:05:09
    China is effectively costing them
  • 00:05:12
    roughly around $5.5 billion in revenue.
  • 00:05:15
    Okay. So that might actually show in the
  • 00:05:17
    next earnings. However, if you recall
  • 00:05:20
    when Trump went to the Middle East to do
  • 00:05:22
    some business, Nvidia effectively got
  • 00:05:25
    business over there. So is that going to
  • 00:05:26
    be factored into the quarterly earnings?
  • 00:05:29
    we're going to anticipate that that's
  • 00:05:31
    going to be the case. Okay. So, now
  • 00:05:33
    we're just going to go over to um the
  • 00:05:35
    actual chart of Nvidia just to put
  • 00:05:37
    things into perspective for you so you
  • 00:05:39
    can understand exactly what view you
  • 00:05:41
    want to be looking at it as when it
  • 00:05:43
    comes to investing in the stock market.
  • 00:05:46
    So, in front of you is Nvidia's price
  • 00:05:48
    action and we got lots of data in front
  • 00:05:50
    of us, but I want to draw your attention
  • 00:05:52
    to the columns down below here. You got
  • 00:05:55
    quarter ending 2024 April 455% 262% on
  • 00:06:01
    its earnings and sales. Great. Next
  • 00:06:03
    quarter July 31st 152% 122% earnings and
  • 00:06:07
    sales. Really good triple digit figures.
  • 00:06:09
    That's still good. October 31st, 2024,
  • 00:06:13
    103% on the earnings, 94% on its sales.
  • 00:06:16
    Okay, so we got a little bit of a
  • 00:06:18
    slowdown. Next, quarterly ending January
  • 00:06:21
    31st,
  • 00:06:22
    2025, earnings and sales are down plus
  • 00:06:26
    71%, plus 78%. What you're looking for
  • 00:06:30
    with a stock is every quarter you want
  • 00:06:34
    to see its acceleration in its earnings
  • 00:06:37
    and sales, right? So if the last three
  • 00:06:41
    quarters of a stock have shown an
  • 00:06:43
    acceleration in the earnings and the
  • 00:06:45
    sales, then that is a good stock to take
  • 00:06:48
    into consideration for your portfolio.
  • 00:06:50
    Let me dive into it a bit more. As it
  • 00:06:54
    stands on the right over here, you can
  • 00:06:56
    see that you're getting a bit of
  • 00:06:57
    information about Nvidia. So its
  • 00:06:59
    earnings per share growth rate is around
  • 00:07:01
    70%. The higher the better. Okay, if you
  • 00:07:04
    look on the left, you can see the
  • 00:07:05
    estimates for its earnings per share.
  • 00:07:07
    And going into 2027, you're expected to
  • 00:07:10
    earn around
  • 00:07:11
    $563 on every share that you hold of
  • 00:07:14
    Nvidia. That is pretty good. That is
  • 00:07:17
    stellar in my opinion. Okay. Now, one
  • 00:07:20
    thing you do need to look out for is the
  • 00:07:22
    fund ownership because behind the fund
  • 00:07:24
    ownership is going to dictate whether or
  • 00:07:26
    not Nvidia is going to be continuing its
  • 00:07:28
    narrative, excuse me, to the upside.
  • 00:07:31
    Okay. Bond ownership has been increasing
  • 00:07:34
    over the last four quarters to say the
  • 00:07:37
    least. So June 2024
  • 00:07:39
    8,110. September 24 it's increased to
  • 00:07:43
    8,314. Then December 2024 you got
  • 00:07:47
    8599. And in the latest quarter we've
  • 00:07:49
    just had an increase up to
  • 00:07:52
    8,62. So we know institutional fund
  • 00:07:55
    managers are getting involved in Nvidia.
  • 00:07:57
    Nvidia from a structural perspective
  • 00:07:59
    looks like it's getting ready to break
  • 00:08:01
    out. It's only 11 and a half% away from
  • 00:08:03
    its all-time high. And when you get a
  • 00:08:05
    stock that is showing this sort of
  • 00:08:07
    structure and it looks like it's getting
  • 00:08:09
    ready to break out, if you can marry the
  • 00:08:12
    fundamentals behind it, the chances of
  • 00:08:14
    the breakout are going to be very, very
  • 00:08:16
    high. As long as the fundamentals are
  • 00:08:20
    there to back it, fundamentally
  • 00:08:22
    speaking, in my opinion, Nvidia is the
  • 00:08:25
    market leader. It has a market cap of
  • 00:08:27
    $3.3 trillion. That's a big market cap.
  • 00:08:30
    So, it's all eyes on Nvidia. Now, this
  • 00:08:33
    is what I want to draw your attention
  • 00:08:35
    to. Has today been a false move? Cuz I'm
  • 00:08:41
    going to give you the idea of what
  • 00:08:42
    markets are good doing right now. And
  • 00:08:44
    it's all excitable. And this is all
  • 00:08:46
    going to be good news for Bitcoin, guys.
  • 00:08:48
    So, just stick with me on this one if
  • 00:08:49
    you're just new passing through. Okay.
  • 00:08:52
    So, the NASDAQ today has made a nice
  • 00:08:54
    move to the upsideish. All right. So,
  • 00:08:57
    let's just go over and have a look at
  • 00:08:58
    the NASDAQ for a split second. Now, that
  • 00:09:00
    was a nice little pump up there. Now,
  • 00:09:02
    for just to put it out there, the
  • 00:09:04
    platinum members today, we had some
  • 00:09:06
    wonderful entries on the actual setups
  • 00:09:09
    from this morning. So, this was one of
  • 00:09:11
    the setups for NVI for NASDAQ. So, if we
  • 00:09:14
    just click that right there. So, I
  • 00:09:16
    anticipated two entry points. You've got
  • 00:09:18
    the
  • 00:09:19
    21,248 and then you've got the
  • 00:09:22
    21,336. Now, that's on the premise that
  • 00:09:25
    the market was going to open because we
  • 00:09:26
    needed to see a sweep of the Asian
  • 00:09:28
    session and we wanted to see him try and
  • 00:09:30
    come down to create the brinks low to
  • 00:09:32
    then effectively make the reversal to
  • 00:09:33
    the upside. This is something that
  • 00:09:35
    happens all the time, which is why the
  • 00:09:37
    hybrid system does give you the edge
  • 00:09:39
    when you're paying attention to the
  • 00:09:40
    brinks box, which is the first hour of
  • 00:09:43
    the stock market in principle from 9:00
  • 00:09:46
    a.m. Eastern Standard to 10:00 a.m.
  • 00:09:48
    Eastern Standard. Okay. Now, if you go
  • 00:09:50
    and have a look, you can see what they
  • 00:09:51
    did. They came down and swept that entry
  • 00:09:54
    point at
  • 00:09:56
    21,248 and then they continued with the
  • 00:09:58
    breakout on the Brinks box high towards
  • 00:10:01
    21,36 and then it's made the rally to
  • 00:10:04
    the upside but look it's just gone
  • 00:10:06
    straight back into the red vector
  • 00:10:08
    candle. Now I took this exact trade and
  • 00:10:10
    I've been playing on the NASDAQ all day
  • 00:10:12
    today. So this is the live account that
  • 00:10:15
    I've got. made a withdrawal and came
  • 00:10:17
    start back again with around $5,000 and
  • 00:10:20
    today we made
  • 00:10:22
    $8,278 and we go into it. These are the
  • 00:10:24
    the actual figures. So I traded the
  • 00:10:28
    micros and the minis and you can see at
  • 00:10:30
    the top right. So on the S&P we made
  • 00:10:33
    $1,522 and then the m on the NASDAQ well
  • 00:10:37
    on the mini contracts we made
  • 00:10:39
    $4,912 and then on the standard M on the
  • 00:10:42
    minis on the NASDAQ we made
  • 00:10:45
    2,160. Made quite a few trades today.
  • 00:10:48
    Okay, but the idea was I was trading the
  • 00:10:50
    logic of the NASDAQ making the reversal
  • 00:10:53
    to the upside. So I took the same trade
  • 00:10:55
    as what I gave out to all the platinum
  • 00:10:57
    members. They should have made money
  • 00:10:59
    today on this move to the upside. But
  • 00:11:01
    when you think about it from earlier on,
  • 00:11:03
    what we were talking about in the live
  • 00:11:05
    stream, look at the buildup, all the
  • 00:11:07
    good news. The stock market hadn't
  • 00:11:09
    absorbed the idea of the the extension
  • 00:11:12
    of the European tariff coming into play.
  • 00:11:15
    They they got excited about that. Nvidia
  • 00:11:18
    was gapping up at the open. I mean, if
  • 00:11:19
    we go over to Nvidia, you can see that
  • 00:11:21
    she's done very very well. It's gapped
  • 00:11:24
    up and it's managed to hold on to its
  • 00:11:25
    gains. Tesla of course has just smashed
  • 00:11:28
    it today and it's made that nice climb
  • 00:11:30
    6.95% nearly. But what was it that we
  • 00:11:33
    identified earlier on the good news for
  • 00:11:35
    the Bank of Japan? Investors like the
  • 00:11:37
    idea of that. So then what did they do?
  • 00:11:39
    They converted the yen and then they
  • 00:11:41
    went over to the dollar and then put
  • 00:11:43
    those dollars to work. Let's go and have
  • 00:11:44
    a look at yen right now. What's happened
  • 00:11:46
    to yen? Oh there's your carry trade
  • 00:11:49
    ladies and gentlemen. The carry trade
  • 00:11:51
    unwind. Not the unwind the preparation
  • 00:11:53
    for it. Why? Because fundamentally, if
  • 00:11:56
    the Bank of Japan are stopping the
  • 00:11:58
    issuance of bonds, then it means that
  • 00:12:00
    there's not that much of a supply, which
  • 00:12:01
    will then force investors to naturally
  • 00:12:03
    not think that there's going to be more
  • 00:12:05
    bonds being issued, which is naturally
  • 00:12:07
    going to demand them to hold on and wait
  • 00:12:09
    until the yields of the Japanese yen go
  • 00:12:11
    up higher. Well, what's happened is they
  • 00:12:14
    stopped that, which is what we spoke
  • 00:12:16
    about this morning, and then the yen has
  • 00:12:18
    taken a nose dive to the downside in
  • 00:12:20
    obviously in the New York session, but
  • 00:12:21
    you can see it's gone down. What else
  • 00:12:23
    has gone down? The euro, the euro made a
  • 00:12:26
    nice move to the downside todayish.
  • 00:12:28
    Okay, it's continued its narrative
  • 00:12:29
    lower. We did have the entry point today
  • 00:12:31
    for the platinum members just to put it
  • 00:12:33
    there. We took an entry um on the euro.
  • 00:12:36
    This was our entry point and we were
  • 00:12:38
    favoring euro to come up first to then
  • 00:12:40
    make the move to the downside towards
  • 00:12:41
    the one spot 12826 zone and we've
  • 00:12:45
    effectively we haven't gone down towards
  • 00:12:47
    that point yet. But the entry point was
  • 00:12:49
    up here at
  • 00:12:51
    1.13633 and they would have made
  • 00:12:53
    themselves if they holding on to it
  • 00:12:55
    still at that entry point you would have
  • 00:12:57
    netted yourself around 40 pips on the
  • 00:12:59
    euro but you can see that euro is moving
  • 00:13:01
    its range is not so wide because it's
  • 00:13:04
    all eyes on the euro but remember what I
  • 00:13:06
    said about the euro it's a safe haven
  • 00:13:08
    there's the spending on the defense
  • 00:13:10
    you've got the tariff story so it's all
  • 00:13:13
    going to be based on what happened over
  • 00:13:15
    the next few days and of course 9th July
  • 00:13:18
    when we do actually get the actual
  • 00:13:21
    deadline, it's going to put things into
  • 00:13:23
    perspective for the actual um for the
  • 00:13:26
    Euro zone because I do believe that they
  • 00:13:28
    are going to start pulling it back. But
  • 00:13:31
    it all depends on the developments of
  • 00:13:33
    the tariff story itself. But you can see
  • 00:13:35
    how the macros are all aligning. Now,
  • 00:13:38
    when it comes to these setups, ladies
  • 00:13:40
    and gentlemen, they're all positively
  • 00:13:41
    correlated. Okay? Even with Bitcoin
  • 00:13:43
    today, I went to see Bitcoin make a nice
  • 00:13:45
    pump to the upside and we got that
  • 00:13:47
    little pump. But Bitcoin pulled back
  • 00:13:49
    ever so slightly and it's been a very
  • 00:13:51
    difficult day to trade Bitcoin. This is
  • 00:13:53
    why sometimes you've got to trade other
  • 00:13:55
    assets because Bitcoin pulls this
  • 00:13:57
    absolute mad behavior. Absolutely
  • 00:14:00
    terrible. Okay, so if you like, okay, so
  • 00:14:04
    you know BTCC, okay, this is the
  • 00:14:06
    preferred exchange that we use. But when
  • 00:14:08
    you want to trade Nvidia, if you want to
  • 00:14:10
    trade NASDAQ alongside Bitcoin, when
  • 00:14:14
    you've got this dead price action with
  • 00:14:16
    Bitcoin and this choppy behavior which
  • 00:14:18
    shakes traders out, BTCC effectively
  • 00:14:21
    gives you that benefit. NASDAQ is tech
  • 00:14:23
    100 and then of course if you go down,
  • 00:14:25
    you'll see Nvidia stock is right there.
  • 00:14:27
    So, if you're on the expectation that
  • 00:14:29
    Nvidia is going to come through with a
  • 00:14:30
    stellar performance in tomorrow's
  • 00:14:32
    earnings, you building positions
  • 00:14:34
    beforehand before the market closes
  • 00:14:36
    because that's when they're going to
  • 00:14:37
    declare the earnings, then you could be
  • 00:14:39
    setting yourself up for a nice move to
  • 00:14:41
    the upside. The logic says, okay, that
  • 00:14:44
    if they are going to come through and
  • 00:14:46
    they and investors do have an
  • 00:14:47
    expectation of Nvidia hitting well,
  • 00:14:50
    well, let's just go and have a look at
  • 00:14:51
    the price action to justify it. Okay. So
  • 00:14:54
    if I look at Nvidia right now, I then
  • 00:14:56
    say looks like it's getting ready to
  • 00:14:58
    break out. The thing is right, even if
  • 00:15:00
    the news announcements doesn't come in
  • 00:15:03
    favorable, Nvidia could still spike up
  • 00:15:06
    because remember they sell as it rises.
  • 00:15:08
    So the market could actually hit the
  • 00:15:10
    move to the upside, gap up, but then
  • 00:15:12
    they can bring it all the way back down
  • 00:15:14
    again. So that's something you got to be
  • 00:15:16
    very careful of. So if you do decide to
  • 00:15:17
    trade that tomorrow, it's going to be
  • 00:15:19
    Nvidia and NASDAQ that are going to make
  • 00:15:21
    the big moves. So, if you want to trade
  • 00:15:22
    that on BTCC where you can trade crypto,
  • 00:15:25
    go over into the description and you'll
  • 00:15:26
    get the link for that under the traders
  • 00:15:28
    reality link. Now, with that being said,
  • 00:15:32
    going back into what I said earlier on,
  • 00:15:34
    if this is a manipulative move in front
  • 00:15:36
    of you, you've got the NASDAQ making a
  • 00:15:38
    nice clean move to the upside. At the
  • 00:15:40
    same time, Bitcoin's not really making
  • 00:15:42
    the move just yet. What happened to all
  • 00:15:44
    the optimism about Bitcoin? Where is it
  • 00:15:47
    right now? Why isn't Bitcoin pumping
  • 00:15:49
    even though it's so close to its
  • 00:15:50
    all-time high again? Why the stall? And
  • 00:15:53
    I've said this before, Bitcoin usually
  • 00:15:56
    acts as a laggered asset. It's always
  • 00:15:58
    last to move. But when it comes to a
  • 00:16:00
    macro event, it's like Bitcoin kind of
  • 00:16:03
    gives you a clue where investors heads
  • 00:16:05
    are at. So, we know this week that
  • 00:16:07
    investors, or should I say big wells
  • 00:16:09
    with wallet sizes over 10,000 Bitcoin,
  • 00:16:11
    they've been taking some profits. And
  • 00:16:14
    given that the market today in
  • 00:16:15
    principle, Bitcoin should have moved up.
  • 00:16:18
    The NASDAQ's traded positive today, it
  • 00:16:20
    has been good news overall. So why
  • 00:16:23
    hasn't Bitcoin moved up? Maybe Bitcoin
  • 00:16:25
    is being primed. In other words, if
  • 00:16:27
    investors aren't going into Bitcoin,
  • 00:16:29
    maybe they're waiting to see what the
  • 00:16:30
    Nvidia result is. So they don't want to
  • 00:16:32
    be buying Bitcoin now at the prospect
  • 00:16:34
    that if Nvidia misses tomorrow, then
  • 00:16:36
    Bitcoin is going to be pulled back down.
  • 00:16:38
    We'd ideally hope that that's not the
  • 00:16:40
    case because Bitcoin principally Nvidia
  • 00:16:42
    earnings has got nothing to do with
  • 00:16:44
    Bitcoin. Tariffs have nothing to do with
  • 00:16:47
    Bitcoin. Interest rates have nothing to
  • 00:16:50
    do with
  • 00:16:51
    Bitcoin to a degree, but
  • 00:16:55
    fundamentally Bitcoin should be at half
  • 00:16:58
    a million now if it didn't react to all
  • 00:17:00
    the BS that happens in the marketplace.
  • 00:17:04
    But you've got Wall Street in Bitcoin
  • 00:17:06
    and if they're not if Wall Street ain't
  • 00:17:08
    buying the Bitcoin when technically they
  • 00:17:09
    should have been buying it today. In
  • 00:17:11
    other words, price is marking up.
  • 00:17:15
    Okay, it makes you question, doesn't it?
  • 00:17:18
    Makes you think, hold on a second. What
  • 00:17:19
    if this move to the upside on the NASDAQ
  • 00:17:22
    has been a setup? What if they do
  • 00:17:25
    actually go into the move tomorrow and
  • 00:17:27
    shift out and then bring it back down?
  • 00:17:30
    What if that's going to be the case?
  • 00:17:31
    What if Nvidia actually comes through
  • 00:17:34
    and completes the earnings, does a great
  • 00:17:36
    job, but the market still pulls back?
  • 00:17:39
    What if Nvidia says, "Yeah, we have seen
  • 00:17:41
    a curb on the chips and what have you.
  • 00:17:43
    It has hurt our revenue a little bit,
  • 00:17:46
    and the actual deal that we got with the
  • 00:17:48
    Middle East is going to favor cloud or
  • 00:17:50
    whatever it's going to do, but our
  • 00:17:52
    prospects of the future are looking like
  • 00:17:54
    it all depends on what they reveal in
  • 00:17:56
    their statement to the investors. So
  • 00:17:59
    tomorrow is going to be a very very
  • 00:18:00
    interesting day. And usually what
  • 00:18:02
    happens is when there is a big news
  • 00:18:05
    announcement, the NASDAQ always ends up
  • 00:18:08
    starting to climb. Okay? And already
  • 00:18:11
    NASDAQ is moving up. And if it can clear
  • 00:18:13
    this range right here, then it's going
  • 00:18:15
    to be on route towards its all-time
  • 00:18:17
    high. It's not too far away from it.
  • 00:18:19
    However, sometimes what you'll find is
  • 00:18:22
    if you do go back and study all of the
  • 00:18:24
    earnings call from Microsoft, from
  • 00:18:27
    Google, and from Nvidia, go and have a
  • 00:18:30
    look at what NASDAQ was doing a few
  • 00:18:32
    hours before that that news release.
  • 00:18:36
    You'll always find that it's either
  • 00:18:37
    going to be moving up, keeps on moving,
  • 00:18:39
    keeps on moving, the data comes out, it
  • 00:18:42
    spikes to the downside, then reverses
  • 00:18:44
    back up, or it keeps on going down,
  • 00:18:46
    keeps going down, keeps going down, and
  • 00:18:48
    then the news comes out, it spikes up
  • 00:18:50
    and recovers the whole
  • 00:18:52
    thing. Be very careful with it tomorrow,
  • 00:18:55
    guys, because it's going to be during
  • 00:18:57
    the market close and price action could
  • 00:19:00
    end up getting a little bit flat. you
  • 00:19:01
    might get NASDAQ trading around the VWAP
  • 00:19:04
    and being an absolute pain in the back.
  • 00:19:06
    So, just be careful going into tomorrow,
  • 00:19:08
    ladies and gentlemen, if you do decide
  • 00:19:10
    to trade that. Okay. Now, going into
  • 00:19:13
    Bitcoin price action just to understand
  • 00:19:14
    where we are. Any questions, ladies and
  • 00:19:17
    gentlemen? So far, so good. Tina, why
  • 00:19:20
    does the 50 EMA have clouds but not the
  • 00:19:22
    200? It's a it's a moving. Well, it's
  • 00:19:24
    like volatility bands of the 50 EMA.
  • 00:19:26
    Okay. It's exponential as well. So it's
  • 00:19:30
    um the cloud it's to represent the just
  • 00:19:34
    the volatility of you can get rid of
  • 00:19:37
    those by the hybrid system but it's good
  • 00:19:40
    to have it because it just gives you the
  • 00:19:41
    idea of momentum in the moving averages.
  • 00:19:45
    Um any word on Trump is going to allow
  • 00:19:47
    you as participants to exchange like
  • 00:19:49
    Mexia I couldn't tell you but Trump's
  • 00:19:51
    too busy warning Putin about sanctions.
  • 00:19:57
    What happened to the ceasefire? What
  • 00:19:59
    happened to the talks? It's clearly not
  • 00:20:01
    happening. So, we could effectively be
  • 00:20:04
    getting ready for another
  • 00:20:06
    event. You know what that means, ladies
  • 00:20:08
    and gentlemen? Gold could be getting
  • 00:20:11
    primed. It could be getting primed to
  • 00:20:14
    come
  • 00:20:14
    up. All depends on how bold Putin's
  • 00:20:18
    going to
  • 00:20:20
    be. Long or short. Look man, listen. If
  • 00:20:23
    you that question winds me up long or
  • 00:20:28
    short, I don't know your risk. I don't
  • 00:20:31
    know your leverage. I don't know
  • 00:20:32
    anything. How can I give you sound
  • 00:20:35
    advice? But I will give you this. Sell
  • 00:20:38
    XRP. That's sound advice. All right.
  • 00:20:42
    That is the best advice that anyone
  • 00:20:46
    could give
  • 00:20:47
    you. Sell your XRP so I can buy it.
  • 00:20:51
    Anyways, um got a question here. Tina,
  • 00:20:53
    I'm new to trading. I've taken the free
  • 00:20:54
    course PDF and watched 100 plus of your
  • 00:20:56
    videos, but I'm still confused. Does a
  • 00:20:58
    platinum group include training to help
  • 00:20:59
    you navigate the market? When you get
  • 00:21:01
    become a platinum member, you get this
  • 00:21:03
    breakdown. So, what you get every single
  • 00:21:05
    day is you get a video and I give you
  • 00:21:07
    the daily market brief. I break down
  • 00:21:09
    logistically and fundamentally,
  • 00:21:12
    technically, everything that can happen,
  • 00:21:14
    what I think will be happening based off
  • 00:21:16
    the fundamentals of the marketplace. So
  • 00:21:19
    I dive into all sorts of stuff in this
  • 00:21:21
    and explain why my logic is I favor
  • 00:21:24
    price to go down. I favor it to go up.
  • 00:21:26
    Okay. What you get with this is a
  • 00:21:28
    working it's like a working education.
  • 00:21:31
    All right. About the hybrid system and
  • 00:21:33
    applying it
  • 00:21:34
    into the marketplace. You learn
  • 00:21:37
    everything about the fundamentals. I got
  • 00:21:39
    PDFs that break it all down for you. So
  • 00:21:41
    there's a section on the website where
  • 00:21:42
    for the members you get access to the
  • 00:21:44
    PDFs. The PDFs are based on all the
  • 00:21:47
    strategies that are included in the
  • 00:21:50
    hybrid system. Okay, so here's the PDF
  • 00:21:53
    library right here. Each PDF I've
  • 00:21:56
    created myself is breaking down the
  • 00:21:58
    whole thing about the hybrid system.
  • 00:22:00
    There's one on there about breaking down
  • 00:22:02
    the macros. All of this stuff here is
  • 00:22:04
    all about the way to trade the hybrid.
  • 00:22:08
    And each of these checklists effectively
  • 00:22:11
    gives you a style of trading with the
  • 00:22:13
    hybrid. So every single day when I do do
  • 00:22:15
    the setups, what I do is I refer to
  • 00:22:18
    these checklists in principle and say,
  • 00:22:20
    "Okay, we're waiting for an Asian
  • 00:22:21
    session sweep. Why are we waiting for
  • 00:22:23
    the sweep?" And I give the
  • 00:22:23
    justification. I give guys the logic of
  • 00:22:26
    how to approach the market from a
  • 00:22:28
    fundamental perspective. What's
  • 00:22:29
    important? What do we need to know? What
  • 00:22:31
    don't we need to know? Why is it
  • 00:22:33
    important that in today's setup that I
  • 00:22:35
    provided, my reference to the Bank of
  • 00:22:37
    Japan was very important? Because it
  • 00:22:39
    gave investors the idea that the carry
  • 00:22:41
    trade would be able to be exercised. So,
  • 00:22:43
    I know they're going to be selling yen.
  • 00:22:45
    I know when yen is going down, the
  • 00:22:47
    dollar's going up. That means euro is
  • 00:22:48
    going down. And that's why we projected
  • 00:22:51
    euro to come down today. And that's what
  • 00:22:53
    gave us the setup. That's what you get
  • 00:22:55
    in the setups. You don't just get buy
  • 00:22:57
    here, sell here, because the idea is to
  • 00:22:59
    get you to understand the why. If you
  • 00:23:02
    understand the why, then you then become
  • 00:23:04
    proficient in being able to do it for
  • 00:23:06
    yourself. That's the whole point. All
  • 00:23:10
    right, Tina, what do you think about
  • 00:23:12
    Soft Bank Nip and Steel and US Japan
  • 00:23:15
    wealth fund? LOL. Well, I know that that
  • 00:23:19
    nippon steel's been happy days. Okay, so
  • 00:23:22
    Trump's authorized all of that. So
  • 00:23:24
    that's great news for Steel, but
  • 00:23:27
    um the US Japan wealth fund. I haven't
  • 00:23:30
    actually found out about that, Victoria.
  • 00:23:32
    My bad.
  • 00:23:34
    Um, Tino, do you see any similarities in
  • 00:23:36
    your trading strategy to ICT concepts? I
  • 00:23:40
    mean, ICT concepts, you know, there's
  • 00:23:43
    there's the fair value gaps. There's
  • 00:23:45
    there's this the PD PD
  • 00:23:49
    arrays and what other concepts are
  • 00:23:52
    there? I mean, look, it's a very very
  • 00:23:55
    intricate way of seeing the market,
  • 00:23:58
    okay?
  • 00:24:00
    But
  • 00:24:02
    fundamentally, I need to simplify the
  • 00:24:06
    unknown. I don't want to complicate the
  • 00:24:09
    unknown. And those that get the ICT
  • 00:24:12
    concept, they run with it and they
  • 00:24:15
    absolutely rip it apart.
  • 00:24:18
    Okay? When you compare the idea of it to
  • 00:24:21
    the hybrid system, I mean, you come to
  • 00:24:24
    the charts right now, you've passed
  • 00:24:25
    through this live stream and you see
  • 00:24:26
    that my I've got candlesticks that are
  • 00:24:28
    all different colors. I've got sessions
  • 00:24:31
    like this. And you're asking yourself,
  • 00:24:33
    what the hell is that? Well, each
  • 00:24:36
    candlestick gives me an understanding of
  • 00:24:39
    how price is going to behave. You see,
  • 00:24:42
    90% of all the guys in ICT have very
  • 00:24:46
    very very
  • 00:24:47
    very clean charts. It's like this,
  • 00:24:51
    right? So, some guys will be like,
  • 00:24:53
    "Okay, there's where's a fair value
  • 00:24:55
    gap?" All right, so here's a fair value
  • 00:24:57
    gapish. You got one right here in
  • 00:24:59
    principle. Okay, sort of. Challenge me
  • 00:25:01
    if it's not. All right, but who cares?
  • 00:25:04
    The idea is price is going to come back
  • 00:25:06
    into that fair value gap and make a
  • 00:25:07
    reversal from it. Well, that's what they
  • 00:25:09
    did. Okay, but because you've got the
  • 00:25:11
    candlesticks like this, it's kind of
  • 00:25:13
    difficult to try and pinpoint what is
  • 00:25:15
    going to work, what isn't going to work.
  • 00:25:17
    Okay, because sometimes it doesn't work,
  • 00:25:19
    right? But then when you switch it over
  • 00:25:21
    and then go over and put down the vector
  • 00:25:23
    candles already without even marking off
  • 00:25:26
    vector without marking off the idea of a
  • 00:25:28
    fair value gap,
  • 00:25:30
    right? Look at the green vector candle.
  • 00:25:33
    I already know that price is going to
  • 00:25:34
    visit that point at some point. I
  • 00:25:37
    already think that what I need to look
  • 00:25:39
    for is price getting ready to break down
  • 00:25:41
    into that point. So I'm already setting
  • 00:25:44
    myself up. So, where an ICT trader will
  • 00:25:47
    be waiting for that fair value gap to
  • 00:25:48
    get hit, I would be running shorts from
  • 00:25:51
    this range
  • 00:25:53
    hypothetically because I've seen
  • 00:25:55
    stopping volume candles and then it
  • 00:25:58
    comes down. I've made my money here and
  • 00:26:01
    then price makes the reversal back up.
  • 00:26:03
    This was yesterday's setup. If you go
  • 00:26:05
    and watch last night's live stream,
  • 00:26:06
    Bitcoin, the setup that I put out for
  • 00:26:08
    the members was for favoring Bitcoin to
  • 00:26:11
    come down. Now, it did come down because
  • 00:26:13
    we caught a wonderful entry on Bitcoin
  • 00:26:15
    and then I said to the guys in the
  • 00:26:17
    evening, it's going to continue to go
  • 00:26:18
    lower. Why? Because it's going to trade
  • 00:26:19
    back into the vector candle. Now, ICT
  • 00:26:21
    traders could have been waiting for the
  • 00:26:22
    fair value gap to come into play before
  • 00:26:24
    they took a trade to ride this move to
  • 00:26:26
    the upside. So, who's right? Who's
  • 00:26:30
    wrong? Who did it first? Who didn't?
  • 00:26:32
    It's irrelevant. It doesn't matter
  • 00:26:35
    because whether it's ICT, whether it's
  • 00:26:37
    the hybrid system, whether it's market
  • 00:26:40
    cipher, whether it's MACD's, what other
  • 00:26:43
    whatever strategy it is, fundamentally
  • 00:26:46
    your experience of using the system is
  • 00:26:49
    going to help you understand when to use
  • 00:26:51
    it. Okay? If you think that taking any
  • 00:26:55
    system and coming to the market and
  • 00:26:57
    thinking because Tom, Dick, and Ari have
  • 00:26:59
    been making a ton of cash on it, it
  • 00:27:00
    means that I'm going to do it. Well, you
  • 00:27:02
    don't know if Tom Dick and Ari have been
  • 00:27:04
    watching fair value gaps and gone back
  • 00:27:06
    in the charts and show and and drawn off
  • 00:27:09
    thousands of fair value gaps. They've
  • 00:27:12
    developed an intuition to understand how
  • 00:27:15
    likely one's going to work or one isn't
  • 00:27:17
    going to work. That's the problem with
  • 00:27:20
    trading today. You think that a system
  • 00:27:22
    is going to say buy and sell. Hybrid
  • 00:27:25
    system gives you the representation of
  • 00:27:27
    where people psychologically react.
  • 00:27:30
    That's why we have a strategy called the
  • 00:27:32
    block trade principle where it behaves
  • 00:27:35
    on the principle of that the market's
  • 00:27:36
    memory is going to be triggered at some
  • 00:27:39
    point in the future. Okay? And you can
  • 00:27:41
    see that it has been triggered inside of
  • 00:27:43
    this range. But having that
  • 00:27:44
    understanding already when the
  • 00:27:46
    candlestick arises gives you that edge
  • 00:27:49
    because you have an expectation that in
  • 00:27:50
    some instance it's going to go back to
  • 00:27:52
    that point and you're then going to be
  • 00:27:53
    able to react based on the logic of the
  • 00:27:57
    block trade principle or the fair value
  • 00:27:59
    gap or whatever it is that you use. You
  • 00:28:02
    know whatever system you decide to run
  • 00:28:05
    with go back and you know what back
  • 00:28:08
    testing is. See back testing is a bit
  • 00:28:10
    dead. why you should only really back
  • 00:28:13
    test if you want to learn uh a strategy
  • 00:28:15
    in terms of where you're executing it on
  • 00:28:17
    the platform. True back testing in my
  • 00:28:20
    opinion is not waiting for price to come
  • 00:28:24
    and tap the 50 EMA and move away from it
  • 00:28:26
    and then try and pull some statistics on
  • 00:28:28
    your strategy analyze or whatever, okay?
  • 00:28:31
    And then say, "Oh, it's got a win rate
  • 00:28:33
    of around 85% after 12 trades. Yeah,
  • 00:28:36
    man. I got myself a system." That's
  • 00:28:38
    Okay? This for me true back
  • 00:28:41
    testing is doing this. I've identified
  • 00:28:44
    an edge in the market. When I say I've
  • 00:28:46
    identified an edge, it means that I've
  • 00:28:48
    seen something that replicates itself
  • 00:28:51
    over and over again. So I know that in
  • 00:28:53
    the future they're going to try and do
  • 00:28:55
    it again, right? And take the example
  • 00:28:57
    today, W formations. Go back and mark
  • 00:29:00
    off a,000 W's, a,000 M's and then come
  • 00:29:03
    back to me and tell me that you see the
  • 00:29:04
    market differently. Then the next step
  • 00:29:06
    after that is to try and marry the idea
  • 00:29:08
    of where we are on a macro perspective.
  • 00:29:10
    What's the sentiment? Why would W
  • 00:29:12
    formations work on the euro? Well,
  • 00:29:14
    everything's been going into the euro.
  • 00:29:16
    China's been encouraging investors to go
  • 00:29:18
    and buy European stock. NASDAQ goes
  • 00:29:20
    down, euro goes up because the dollar
  • 00:29:22
    appreciation's going down. So then you
  • 00:29:24
    can marry up technical analysis and
  • 00:29:26
    fundamental analysis. If the carry trade
  • 00:29:28
    is working, that means the yen's going
  • 00:29:30
    to go down and the euro is going to go
  • 00:29:31
    down because they're just taking money
  • 00:29:33
    out and going into the dollar. So any M
  • 00:29:35
    formation that you see on the Euro is
  • 00:29:37
    more than likely going to work out. So
  • 00:29:38
    if you've gone back and looked at many M
  • 00:29:40
    formations, you'll then be able to marry
  • 00:29:42
    up and say, "Okay, I've seen this
  • 00:29:44
    before." M formations that happen on the
  • 00:29:46
    euro when price is rising tend to fail.
  • 00:29:49
    But when prices are coming down and euro
  • 00:29:51
    shows M formations, marrying the idea of
  • 00:29:53
    the macros, I can justify it and execute
  • 00:29:56
    that. That's what back testing
  • 00:29:58
    realistically is. When you go back and
  • 00:30:00
    try and find something that's happened
  • 00:30:01
    before and then you train your mind to
  • 00:30:03
    register its behavior and its
  • 00:30:05
    development so that when you do come
  • 00:30:06
    into the future, you can then anticipate
  • 00:30:09
    how likely it's going to be based on
  • 00:30:10
    your experience from seeing it before.
  • 00:30:13
    That's how back testing should be. Don't
  • 00:30:15
    make your back testing mechanical in the
  • 00:30:17
    sense where you just put in your system,
  • 00:30:19
    crossover EMA, wait for it to do it. You
  • 00:30:22
    need to see it for yourself. You've got
  • 00:30:24
    to build an intuition on how you work a
  • 00:30:27
    system. Whether it's ICT, market cipher,
  • 00:30:30
    MACD's, hybrid system, it doesn't
  • 00:30:32
    matter. It's all about how you develop
  • 00:30:33
    your intuition for it. All right, cool.
  • 00:30:38
    Um, with that being said, ladies and
  • 00:30:41
    gentlemen, I hope that helps you out.
  • 00:30:43
    Okay, keep an eye out on what's going on
  • 00:30:45
    with Nvidia. Everything you need
  • 00:30:46
    regarding the hybrid system. All the fun
  • 00:30:49
    and stuff is in the description of this
  • 00:30:51
    live stream. But I do hope it helps you
  • 00:30:54
    going into your trading. All right,
  • 00:30:57
    other than that guys, mad love and
  • 00:30:59
    respect, man. Try and keep this life
  • 00:31:00
    short and sweet. 30 minutes on the
  • 00:31:02
    noseish. I'll be catching up with you
  • 00:31:04
    all later. Peace.
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