Why Myanmar is Dying

00:43:02
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fjjy0aNEA4w

概要

TLDRMyanmar, also known as Burma, is currently facing a complex and brutal civil war that has lasted over four years, following a military coup in February 2021. The coup led to the overthrow of the democratically elected government, triggering widespread protests and armed resistance. The conflict has resulted in over 82,000 deaths and displaced more than 3.2 million people, making it one of the most violent ongoing conflicts globally. The military regime controls only about 20% of the country's territory, while various ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) and resistance groups have gained significant ground. The situation has drawn limited international attention compared to other conflicts, despite its potential implications for regional stability, particularly concerning China, which has vested interests in Myanmar's resources and infrastructure. The country is at risk of fragmentation, with the possibility of becoming a failed state, as it grapples with severe economic decline and humanitarian crises, including the plight of the Rohingya people, who remain stateless and persecuted. The future of Myanmar remains uncertain, with various potential outcomes ranging from continued civil war to a pro-democracy victory or further balkanization.

収穫

  • 🇲🇲 Myanmar is embroiled in a brutal civil war since 2021.
  • ⚔️ Over 82,000 people have died in the conflict.
  • 💔 More than 3.2 million people are internally displaced.
  • 💰 Myanmar's economy has crashed by at least 20%.
  • 🌍 The military controls only about 20% of the territory.
  • 🚨 The Rohingya are the largest stateless population in the world.
  • 🔗 China plays a significant role in the conflict, supporting both sides.
  • 📉 The country faces the risk of fragmentation and state collapse.
  • 🌪️ A devastating earthquake struck in March 2025, worsening the crisis.
  • 📰 The international community has largely ignored the situation.

タイムライン

  • 00:00:00 - 00:05:00

    Myanmar, also known as Burma, is currently embroiled in a brutal civil war that has lasted over four years, resulting in over 82,000 deaths and millions displaced. The military coup in 2021 that overthrew the democratically elected government has led to a complex conflict involving various militias and a totalitarian regime, with little international attention compared to other global conflicts.

  • 00:05:00 - 00:10:00

    The country's history of colonial rule by the British and subsequent struggles for governance among its diverse ethnic groups has contributed to ongoing tensions. Promises of autonomy made to ethnic minorities were never fulfilled, leading to the formation of armed organizations that have been in conflict with the central government for decades.

  • 00:10:00 - 00:15:00

    The military coup in 1962 established a dictatorship that exacerbated ethnic tensions and economic mismanagement, resulting in widespread poverty. A nationwide uprising in 1988 was violently suppressed, leading to a brief period of political reform that ultimately failed to address the underlying issues, including the lack of autonomy for ethnic minorities.

  • 00:15:00 - 00:20:00

    In 2010, elections were held under a new constitution that reserved power for the military, leading to a power-sharing arrangement with the National League for Democracy (NLD) in 2015. However, the military's continued repression and the Rohingya crisis severely undermined international support for the NLD and its leader, Aung San Suu Kyi.

  • 00:20:00 - 00:25:00

    The Rohingya, a Muslim ethnic group, faced severe persecution, culminating in a military crackdown in 2017 that resulted in mass displacement and accusations of genocide. The international community's response has been limited, with ongoing legal cases against Myanmar for these actions.

  • 00:25:00 - 00:30:00

    The military coup in 2021 led to widespread protests and the formation of a National Unity Government (NUG) by ousted officials and pro-democracy activists. This sparked a full-blown civil war, with various ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) joining the resistance against the military regime, leading to significant territorial losses for the military.

  • 00:30:00 - 00:35:00

    China has become increasingly involved in Myanmar, balancing support for the military regime while also engaging with various rebel factions to protect its strategic interests, particularly regarding energy pipelines and rare earth resources. This complex relationship has implications for regional stability and China's geopolitical strategy.

  • 00:35:00 - 00:43:02

    As of 2025, Myanmar faces a dire situation with ongoing conflict, economic collapse, and a devastating earthquake exacerbating the humanitarian crisis. The future remains uncertain, with potential paths including continued civil war, a shift towards democracy, or further fragmentation along ethnic lines, all while China watches closely.

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ビデオQ&A

  • What triggered the civil war in Myanmar?

    The civil war was triggered by a military coup in February 2021 that overthrew the democratically elected government.

  • How many people have been killed in the conflict?

    Over 82,000 people have been killed since the civil war began.

  • What is the current state of Myanmar's economy?

    Myanmar's economy has crashed by at least 20% since the civil war began.

  • What are the major ethnic groups in Myanmar?

    Myanmar is home to 135 recognized ethnic groups, with the Bamar majority making up about 68% of the population.

  • What role does China play in the Myanmar conflict?

    China has become a significant player, supporting both the military regime and various rebel factions to maintain its interests in the region.

  • What is the status of the Rohingya people in Myanmar?

    The Rohingya are a stateless population facing severe persecution, with many having fled to Bangladesh.

  • What are the potential outcomes for Myanmar's future?

    Possible outcomes include continued civil war, a victorious pro-democracy movement, or further fragmentation and balkanization.

  • What is the significance of the Sino-Myanmar pipelines?

    These pipelines are crucial for China's energy imports and strategic interests, providing an alternative route to the Strait of Malacca.

  • What recent natural disaster affected Myanmar?

    A devastating earthquake struck Myanmar in March 2025, causing significant damage and casualties amid the ongoing civil war.

  • How has the international community responded to the Myanmar crisis?

    The international community has largely ignored the conflict, focusing on other global issues, despite the severe humanitarian crisis.

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  • 00:00:00
    This is the country of Myanmar.
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    Sometimes also referred to as Burma. And
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    it really only appears as a functioning
  • 00:00:08
    country in our imagination on maps. When
  • 00:00:10
    you look further inside, Myanmar is
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    without exaggeration the most
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    geopolitically complex country on the
  • 00:00:15
    planet today, where it's extremely
  • 00:00:17
    difficult for outsiders to figure out
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    what's actually going on. The country
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    has been completely consumed by a
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    brutal, multi-sided civil war that has
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    been going on for more than 4 years now.
  • 00:00:27
    that has shattered the country into a
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    complicated mosaic of competing
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    militias, warlords, resistance fighters,
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    and a totalitarian central regime
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    dominated by the military that came to
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    power during a coup d'eta in early 2021
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    that overthrew the previous
  • 00:00:42
    democratically elected government. You
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    may have seen memes about this coup back
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    when it happened then, centering around
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    this woman who was filming herself
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    performing an aerobic dance routine as
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    the country's military was busy storming
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    and overthrowing the government right
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    behind her. That coup is what triggered
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    the current civil war in the country.
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    And over the past four plus years of
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    fighting across Myanmar since then, more
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    than 82,000 people have been killed.
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    While more than 3.2 million others have
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    been internally displaced, making the
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    war that's still raging in Myanmar among
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    the most violent and destructive active
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    conflicts taking place anywhere in the
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    world today, but also one that has only
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    attracted a fraction of the
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    international attention as the other
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    ongoing major wars in Ukraine and Gaza
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    have garnered. But Myanmar, a country of
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    some 54 million people in the heart of
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    Southeast Asia, is actively in the
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    process of dying with potentially
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    catastrophic consequences for the rest
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    of Asia and the world. Myanmar's economy
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    has crashed by at least 20% since the
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    civil war began. The central government
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    now controls only about 1ifth of the
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    country's territory and virtually none
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    of its own international borders with
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    its neighbors. In the mostly lawless
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    periphery border regions beyond the
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    government's control, massive drug
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    dealing in the largest scam factories in
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    the world, taking up entire skyscrapers
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    and bolding tens of thousands of people
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    have been established. Governments from
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    around the world have warned their
  • 00:02:03
    citizens not to travel anywhere in
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    Myanmar due to the persistent threat of
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    getting caught up in the war there. And
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    the country is now at a serious risk of
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    bulcanizing or fragmenting and becoming
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    another Yugoslavia or another
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    Afghanistan, but on an even larger
  • 00:02:17
    scale. And it's already become what is
  • 00:02:19
    essentially the only failed state in
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    Eastern Asia located at the strategic
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    crossroads between China, India, and the
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    Bay of Bengal with major major
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    consequences for everyone around them,
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    especially China, who is becoming more
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    and more forced to militarily intervene
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    in the raging chaos that's going on
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    immediately across from their
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    southwestern border. To understand how
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    Myanmar got to this point, a potential
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    state collapse today, and to understand
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    the severity of the potential
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    consequences, it helps first to
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    understand the series of events that led
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    up to the coup and the civil war in
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    2021. Before 1989, the country was known
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    as Burma. So that's the name I'll begin
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    referring to it as for a bit from here.
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    Burma, like many other places in the
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    world, was steadily taken over by the
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    British and ruled by them as a colonial
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    possession for more than a century
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    between 1824 and 1948. After Burma was
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    eventually granted its independence by
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    the British following the Second World
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    War, it has consistently struggled with
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    governing over its extremely diverse
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    multithnic society. Today, there are an
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    astonishing
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    135 separate distinct recognized ethnic
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    groups who are present in the country.
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    The Bamar whom the country's original
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    name Burma derived from have always made
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    up the majority of the country's
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    population and today they represent
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    around 68% of the total population and
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    dominate the center and most of the
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    coast. The peripheries of the country
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    meanwhile have always been populated by
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    various ethnic minorities with the
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    largest being the Shaun, Karen, Rahine,
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    Hanchinese, Mon Indians, Katchin and
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    Shin. These minority groups in the
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    country have always preferred to
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    identify themselves as ethnic
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    nationalities rather than ethnic
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    minorities because they've always ever
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    since the country's independence been
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    insecure and fearful about the political
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    domination of the Bamar majority. To add
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    an even further layer to the complexity,
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    the overwhelming majority of Burma
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    society practices Buddhism, including
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    most of the Bamar ethnic majority, but
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    several of the minority ethnic groups
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    predominantly practice either
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    Christianity or Islam instead. Like the
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    Chin, Katchchin, and Karen, who are
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    predominantly Christians, and the
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    Rohinda, who are predominantly Muslims.
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    In the leadup to Burma's post-war
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    independence, the country's chief
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    independence leader named Angan promised
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    that some of these ethnic minority
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    groups would be granted their full
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    autonomy within their own territories
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    within Burma with a further option to
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    secede from Burma after 10 years had
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    passed. However, Angan was assassinated
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    merely months before the country's
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    independence was granted. And so his
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    promises of autonomy to the ethnic
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    minorities were never honored by the
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    postindependence government which almost
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    immediately sparked major rebellions by
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    many of the ethnic minorities who began
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    forming their own armed militias to
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    resist the central government's
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    authority. And they became known as
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    ethnicar armed organizations or EAOs for
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    short with goals ranging from increased
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    autonomy within Burma to a federalized
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    system within Burma or even to
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    full-blown independence. Many of these
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    EAOs have been continually engaged in a
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    state of conflict with the central
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    government for more than 77 years ever
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    since then, making the conflict in
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    Myanmar the longest continually running
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    war that is still ongoing in the world
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    today. In 1962, the Burmese military
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    known as the Tadmado launched a coup
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    d'eta that overthrew the parliamentary
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    government and installed a totalitarian
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    dictatorship under a military hunter in
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    its place that would last for the next
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    several decades. The tomado dominated by
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    the country's ethnic Bamar Buddhist
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    majority continued refusing to implement
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    a federal system within the country and
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    dramatically increased the state's
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    repression of its ethnic minority
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    regions continuing and exacerbating the
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    fighting between the state and the EAOs
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    around the periphery. At the same time,
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    the Tomado military dictatorship pursued
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    a radical policy within Burba that
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    sought to completely isolate the country
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    from the rest of the outside world
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    economically. Trade and contact with the
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    outside world was largely eliminated.
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    Most industries were nationalized and
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    Soviet style central planning was
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    combined with traditional Buddhist
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    beliefs in deep local superstitions. The
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    result was unbelievable economic
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    mismanagement and crippling poverty. By
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    1987, after more than a quarter century
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    of totalitarian topmau rule, Burma was
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    the second most impoverished country on
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    the entire planet, remaining only just
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    barely ahead of nearby Cambodia, who had
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    lost more than a quarter of its
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    population only a few years earlier
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    under the infamous regime of Paul Pot.
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    The year after in 1988, the level of
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    popular discontent within the country
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    had risen high enough that it had
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    exploded into a massive nationwide
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    uprising involving hundreds of thousands
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    of people. The Tmado regime responded
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    with a brutal armed crackdown, likely
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    killing thousands of protesters in the
  • 00:07:10
    process. Even though the tomado ended up
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    squashing the uprising through force and
  • 00:07:14
    continued remaining in power, it also
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    realized that it needed to begin
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    adopting reforms to prevent the same
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    kind of uprising from ever happening
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    again. The Tomado regime unilaterally
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    changed the country's name from Burma to
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    Myanmar just the next year in 1989. in
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    an attempt to distance itself from the
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    country's colonial past and to be more
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    inclusive of the country's many diverse
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    ethnic groups apart from the Bamar.
  • 00:07:36
    Though the name change has remained
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    highly controversial ever since it was
  • 00:07:41
    not decided democratically by a regime
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    that seized power through force. The
  • 00:07:45
    United States and several other
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    countries around the world who do not
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    recognize the country's military
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    government as legitimate continue to
  • 00:07:52
    insist on officially calling the country
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    Burma instead. which is why on Google
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    Maps and other apps, you'll continue
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    seeing the dispute marked by both names
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    being displayed at once. To further show
  • 00:08:03
    how serious they supposedly were about
  • 00:08:05
    reforming the country, the Tomado also
  • 00:08:07
    agreed to host the country's first open
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    election in nearly three decades in 1990
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    that they, for some reason, confidently
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    believed they would actually win.
  • 00:08:17
    Instead, a party known as the National
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    League for Democracy or the NLD won
  • 00:08:22
    decisively. The NLD was led by a woman
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    named Angans Su Ki, the daughter of
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    Angan, Myanmar's independence era hero
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    who had advocated for federalism in the
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    country and was assassinated decades
  • 00:08:33
    earlier. Shocked by her and the NLD's
  • 00:08:35
    victory in the 1990 election, the
  • 00:08:37
    Tombado regime simply refused to
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    recognize the results and placed
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    Angansuki under house arrest, which
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    would last for much of the next 20 years
  • 00:08:46
    for her until 2010. Over the years that
  • 00:08:48
    followed, the tomado further
  • 00:08:50
    consolidated their power in Myanmar and
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    ramped up their attacks on the EAOS
  • 00:08:54
    around the periphery, destroying most of
  • 00:08:56
    their bases and strongholds by the
  • 00:08:58
    mid200s and entering into ceasefire
  • 00:08:59
    agreements with many of them. But the
  • 00:09:02
    1990 election results also showed the
  • 00:09:04
    topau just how unpopular they really
  • 00:09:06
    were amongst the people they ruled over
  • 00:09:08
    through force. And so to maintain their
  • 00:09:10
    hold on power, they created what they
  • 00:09:13
    called a roadmap to discipline democracy
  • 00:09:15
    that culminated in 2008 with their
  • 00:09:18
    drafting of a new constitution. This new
  • 00:09:20
    constitution, for the first time in
  • 00:09:22
    Myanmar's postindependence history,
  • 00:09:24
    created five self-administered zones and
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    one self-administered division for six
  • 00:09:29
    of the country's ethnic minority groups,
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    reducing the need for many of them to
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    continue fighting. The W state, home to
  • 00:09:36
    the W ethnic minority group, was granted
  • 00:09:37
    so much autonomy within Myanmar through
  • 00:09:39
    the 2008 constitution that it
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    effectively has functioned as a deacto
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    independent state ever since. with its
  • 00:09:45
    own completely separate and independent
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    political system and army with no
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    declared allegiance to any of the rest
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    of Myanmar. The tomado also released
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    thousands of their political prisoners
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    including Angansuki from her long house
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    arrest and agreed to host another round
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    of elections again in 2010, 20 years
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    after their last elections that they
  • 00:10:05
    refused to recognize back in 1990.
  • 00:10:07
    However, unlike the 1990 election that
  • 00:10:09
    surprised them, they made sure that no
  • 00:10:11
    matter how bad the results of the 2010
  • 00:10:13
    election were for them, they would
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    continue remaining largely in power
  • 00:10:18
    without having to resort to force. They
  • 00:10:20
    wrote into the 2008 constitution that at
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    least 25% of all the parliamentary seats
  • 00:10:24
    in the government would still be
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    reserved for the military. The military
  • 00:10:27
    alone would continue controlling the
  • 00:10:29
    country's security policy without any
  • 00:10:32
    civilian oversight, while the military
  • 00:10:33
    would also continue appointing one of
  • 00:10:36
    the country's two vice presidents,
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    essentially ensuring that the military
  • 00:10:40
    could veto any proposed constitutional
  • 00:10:42
    amendments going forward. To try and
  • 00:10:44
    even further shape the election outcome,
  • 00:10:46
    the military also just banned anyone who
  • 00:10:48
    is married to a foreign national from
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    running for president, which was
  • 00:10:51
    basically just an attempt to block
  • 00:10:53
    Angansuki from running again, who was
  • 00:10:56
    married to a British citizen. Her party
  • 00:10:58
    decided to boycott the 2010 election in
  • 00:10:59
    protest as a result, and so the
  • 00:11:01
    military's preferred party won the
  • 00:11:03
    election instead, and they remained
  • 00:11:05
    largely in power. A few years later,
  • 00:11:07
    Myanmar hosted another general election
  • 00:11:10
    in 2015 that Soui's party, the NLD,
  • 00:11:12
    finally participated in for the first
  • 00:11:15
    time in a quarter century. And like in
  • 00:11:18
    the 1990 election, they once again won
  • 00:11:20
    with the people decisively. But this
  • 00:11:22
    time, unlike the 1990 election, the
  • 00:11:24
    Tomado actually decided to recognize the
  • 00:11:26
    results and cautiously agree to enter
  • 00:11:28
    into a power sharing arrangement with
  • 00:11:30
    the NLD, giving up a bit of their
  • 00:11:32
    absolute grip over the country for the
  • 00:11:35
    first time in more than 53 years since
  • 00:11:39
    the 1962 coup. Sinceuki herself was
  • 00:11:40
    still legally barred from running for
  • 00:11:42
    office, she never became Myanmar's
  • 00:11:44
    president. But after the election, the
  • 00:11:46
    NLD created a new position to give to
  • 00:11:48
    her instead that they called the state
  • 00:11:51
    counselor, which made her the de facto
  • 00:11:53
    leader of Myanmar. Anyway, it's hard to
  • 00:11:56
    describe just how high the hopes were in
  • 00:11:58
    the world for Angansuki and the NLD's
  • 00:12:00
    leadership in Myanmar after the 2015
  • 00:12:02
    election. There was a serious hope that
  • 00:12:05
    after more than 50 years of continuous
  • 00:12:07
    authoritarian military rule in the
  • 00:12:09
    country, Suki was finally helping to
  • 00:12:11
    transition the country towards
  • 00:12:13
    democracy. But then very quickly after
  • 00:12:15
    her government began administrating
  • 00:12:16
    things, the military decided to do
  • 00:12:18
    something that captured the entire
  • 00:12:20
    world's attention and severely
  • 00:12:22
    undermined international trust in her
  • 00:12:24
    government. The Rakhine state in the
  • 00:12:26
    west of Myanmar across the border from
  • 00:12:28
    Bangladesh has always been among the
  • 00:12:30
    most unstable and violent regions in the
  • 00:12:32
    country stemming from its very high
  • 00:12:34
    levels of ethnic and religious
  • 00:12:36
    diversity. One of the largest groups of
  • 00:12:38
    people present in the Rahin state at the
  • 00:12:40
    time were the Rohinda. One of the very
  • 00:12:42
    few Indo-Aryan ethnic groups who
  • 00:12:44
    predominantly practiced the Islamic
  • 00:12:46
    faith in the country. There used to be
  • 00:12:48
    around a million Rohinda people who
  • 00:12:50
    lived in the Rahine state. But they've
  • 00:12:52
    always faced enormous levels of
  • 00:12:54
    persecution and disenfranchisement by
  • 00:12:56
    the ethnic Bamar and Buddhist majority
  • 00:12:59
    Tmado and the Myanmar government. The
  • 00:13:01
    Myanmar government has continually
  • 00:13:02
    maintained that the Indo-Aryan and
  • 00:13:04
    predominantly Muslim Rohinda are not
  • 00:13:06
    indigenous to the country and that they
  • 00:13:08
    were only brought over to settle in
  • 00:13:10
    historic Burma by the British colonial
  • 00:13:12
    government during the 19th century. The
  • 00:13:14
    Rohinda themselves insist that their own
  • 00:13:16
    history in their hind state goes back
  • 00:13:18
    thousands of years. But the Myanmar
  • 00:13:20
    government refuses to even call them by
  • 00:13:22
    their own name, officially calling them
  • 00:13:25
    Bengali instead to further discredit
  • 00:13:27
    their right to live in the country. The
  • 00:13:29
    government has asserted that the Rohinda
  • 00:13:31
    are a product of British era colonial
  • 00:13:33
    settlement policies and on that supposed
  • 00:13:36
    basis they stripped all of the 1 million
  • 00:13:38
    plus Rohinda in the country of their
  • 00:13:41
    citizenship back in 1982 which has left
  • 00:13:43
    the Rohinda as the largest stateless
  • 00:13:45
    population in the world ever since.
  • 00:13:47
    Further restrictions were placed on the
  • 00:13:48
    rhinda's freedom of movement and
  • 00:13:50
    education access which led a multiple
  • 00:13:52
    academics and scholars calling the
  • 00:13:54
    conditions faced by the Rohinda and the
  • 00:13:56
    Rahine state as similar to the aparthide
  • 00:13:59
    policies experienced in South Africa.
  • 00:14:01
    Understandably, the Rohinda launched
  • 00:14:03
    multiple armed insurrections against the
  • 00:14:04
    military and the government throughout
  • 00:14:07
    the 1990s and 2010s in the face of this
  • 00:14:10
    repression. And in October of 2016, an
  • 00:14:12
    attack by one Rohinda militant group on
  • 00:14:14
    a police station in the Rahin state
  • 00:14:17
    killed 12 Top Mado police officers,
  • 00:14:19
    which led to the military deciding to
  • 00:14:22
    retaliate with genocidal fury. The
  • 00:14:24
    Tabado immediately launched an
  • 00:14:26
    overwhelming crackdown of the Rahan
  • 00:14:27
    state against the entire Rohinda
  • 00:14:30
    community, killing more than 6,700
  • 00:14:33
    Rohinda in just a single month, burning
  • 00:14:35
    down and destroying enough Rohinda
  • 00:14:36
    villages that they were captured by
  • 00:14:39
    satellites and forcefully driving out
  • 00:14:42
    more than 700,000 Rohinda across the
  • 00:14:44
    international border into Bangladesh as
  • 00:14:47
    refugees, representing most of Myanmar's
  • 00:14:49
    entire Rohinda population and one of the
  • 00:14:52
    21st century's most egregious cases of
  • 00:14:54
    ethnic cleansing. It's likely that tens
  • 00:14:57
    of thousands of Rohinda were ultimately
  • 00:14:59
    massacred by the Tombado during this
  • 00:15:02
    crackdown in 2017. And their forcing of
  • 00:15:04
    hundreds of thousands of survivors into
  • 00:15:06
    Bangladesh triggered the largest refugee
  • 00:15:08
    crisis in Asia seen since the Vietnam
  • 00:15:11
    War, where around 1 million stateless
  • 00:15:14
    Rohinda refugees with no citizenship
  • 00:15:16
    anywhere continue living in political
  • 00:15:19
    limbo to this day in the largest refugee
  • 00:15:22
    camps in the world. A couple of years
  • 00:15:24
    later in 2019, the Gambia on behalf of
  • 00:15:27
    all 57 members of the Organization of
  • 00:15:29
    Islamic Cooperation introduced a legal
  • 00:15:31
    case to the International Court of
  • 00:15:33
    Justice accusing Myanmar of committing
  • 00:15:36
    genocide against the Rohinda, which is
  • 00:15:38
    still ongoing and has since been joined
  • 00:15:40
    by many Western countries like the UK,
  • 00:15:42
    Ireland, the Netherlands, Germany,
  • 00:15:44
    France, Denmark, and Canada. As
  • 00:15:47
    Myanmar's state counselor, Angansuki
  • 00:15:48
    traveled to the Hague in December of
  • 00:15:50
    2019 to defend her country against the
  • 00:15:53
    genocide charges, arguing to the dismay
  • 00:15:55
    of many of her international supporters
  • 00:15:57
    that while some war crimes have been
  • 00:15:58
    committed by the military in the Rahin
  • 00:16:01
    state, no genocide of the Rohinda had
  • 00:16:03
    actually taken place there. With her
  • 00:16:05
    support from the west substantially
  • 00:16:06
    eroded after making these arguments in
  • 00:16:08
    international criminal court, Myanmar
  • 00:16:10
    hosted another general election in
  • 00:16:13
    November of 2020 that her NLD party once
  • 00:16:15
    again won decisively for the second time
  • 00:16:18
    in a row, leading the Tabado military to
  • 00:16:20
    begin growing concerned that the NLD's
  • 00:16:22
    continued electoral success was posing a
  • 00:16:24
    long-term threat to its own continued
  • 00:16:26
    rule. So, just like they did after the
  • 00:16:28
    1990 elections didn't go their way, the
  • 00:16:30
    tomado just contested the 2020 elections
  • 00:16:33
    as supposedly fraudulent. And then in
  • 00:16:35
    February of 2021, they launched a
  • 00:16:37
    full-blown coup against the civilian
  • 00:16:38
    government that we began this video
  • 00:16:40
    with, arresting dozens of the newly
  • 00:16:42
    elected government officials before they
  • 00:16:43
    could assume their positions and once
  • 00:16:46
    again imprisoning Angu Ki, who's
  • 00:16:48
    remained in a mix of solitary
  • 00:16:49
    confinement and house arrest for the
  • 00:16:52
    past 4 and 1/2 years ever since. Almost
  • 00:16:53
    immediately after the coup happened,
  • 00:16:55
    protests against the violent seizure of
  • 00:16:58
    power erupted in Myanmar's capital city,
  • 00:16:59
    Napia, which the military
  • 00:17:01
    characteristically responded to with
  • 00:17:04
    overwhelming force, opening fire on the
  • 00:17:06
    protesters with live ammunition and
  • 00:17:08
    killing more than 600 people in the
  • 00:17:10
    process. Thousands of politically
  • 00:17:12
    motivated young people from the Bamar
  • 00:17:14
    majority heartland of the country then
  • 00:17:15
    fled into Myanmar's surrounding
  • 00:17:17
    mountainous peripheries where they
  • 00:17:19
    linked up with many of the long-standing
  • 00:17:21
    and heavily armed EAOs to receive
  • 00:17:23
    training and weapons before returning
  • 00:17:25
    back to the heartland again to engage in
  • 00:17:27
    ambushes and partisan warfare against
  • 00:17:29
    the restored military hunter in the
  • 00:17:31
    country which catapulted Myanmar into a
  • 00:17:34
    state of full-blown civil war. The
  • 00:17:36
    Hunter responded with massive violence,
  • 00:17:38
    launching air strikes and military
  • 00:17:40
    operations across the whole country
  • 00:17:42
    against the resistance and installed one
  • 00:17:44
    of their own generals, Minong line, as
  • 00:17:46
    the regime's de facto leader and acting
  • 00:17:48
    president. Within a few months, the mly
  • 00:17:50
    collection of forces opposed to the
  • 00:17:51
    military regime, including ousted
  • 00:17:53
    elected officials, pro-democracy
  • 00:17:55
    protesters, and long oppressed ethnic
  • 00:17:57
    minorities banded together and formed
  • 00:18:00
    the National Unity Government or NUG
  • 00:18:02
    with the officially stated goal of
  • 00:18:04
    removing the military from power and
  • 00:18:05
    establishing a fully federalized
  • 00:18:08
    democratic Myanmar at its place. Within
  • 00:18:10
    time, the NUG established its armed wing
  • 00:18:13
    called the People's Defense Force or PDF
  • 00:18:14
    to fight against the HUNA and their
  • 00:18:17
    allies in the country, which by 2024
  • 00:18:19
    would grow to encompass an estimated
  • 00:18:22
    85,000 soldiers. Over time, many of the
  • 00:18:25
    25 active and heavily armed EAOs around
  • 00:18:26
    the periphery of the country, many of
  • 00:18:28
    which have thousands of their own
  • 00:18:29
    soldiers, began breaking their
  • 00:18:31
    ceasefires with the government and
  • 00:18:32
    aligning themselves with the
  • 00:18:33
    pro-democracy forces in the country
  • 00:18:35
    against the Huna as the Huna began
  • 00:18:37
    losing ground. while a few other of the
  • 00:18:39
    EAOs for a variety of reasons align
  • 00:18:42
    themselves with the military instead.
  • 00:18:44
    Beginning in late 2023, the Tombbo began
  • 00:18:46
    experiencing an increasingly high number
  • 00:18:48
    of military setbacks and loss of
  • 00:18:51
    territory. As of mid 2025, the Tombbo
  • 00:18:53
    only maintains its control over about
  • 00:18:55
    1/5if of Myanmar's territory and has
  • 00:18:57
    lost control over most of the country's
  • 00:18:59
    external international borders. Though
  • 00:19:01
    it still dominates the Bamar heartland
  • 00:19:02
    in the center of the country that is the
  • 00:19:04
    most densely populated part of Myanmar
  • 00:19:07
    with all of the most major cities. The
  • 00:19:09
    PDF and the EAOS have consistently
  • 00:19:11
    struggled with taking over major cities
  • 00:19:13
    in the country during the civil war. And
  • 00:19:14
    so while they currently control more
  • 00:19:16
    territory than the regime does, most of
  • 00:19:18
    it is sparssely populated rural
  • 00:19:20
    countryside. Throughout the past four
  • 00:19:22
    plus years of war here, Western
  • 00:19:24
    countries have largely ignored what's
  • 00:19:26
    been going on. largely disillusioned
  • 00:19:28
    with Myanmar's pro-democracy movement
  • 00:19:30
    following Angansuki's defense of the
  • 00:19:32
    military's genocide against the Rohinda
  • 00:19:34
    and distracted by other large-scale
  • 00:19:36
    conflicts closer to home like Ukraine
  • 00:19:38
    and Gaza. But in the absence of
  • 00:19:39
    large-scale Western involvement in the
  • 00:19:41
    conflict, China stepped onto the scene
  • 00:19:43
    in Myanmar to fill the vacuum and has
  • 00:19:45
    become by far the most influential
  • 00:19:47
    outside power here, working together
  • 00:19:49
    with both the military huna and various
  • 00:19:51
    rebel factions at the same time to
  • 00:19:54
    advance their own interests. Myammar is
  • 00:19:55
    one of the most important countries
  • 00:19:57
    right now for China's geopolitical
  • 00:19:59
    calculus and Beijing's interests in the
  • 00:20:02
    country are numerous. It is the only
  • 00:20:04
    country that directly borders China that
  • 00:20:06
    is experiencing a major war on its own
  • 00:20:09
    territory. And so naturally, China would
  • 00:20:10
    be concerned about ensuring stability
  • 00:20:12
    along the entire length of their border
  • 00:20:15
    that stretches and winds for nearly 2100
  • 00:20:18
    km. China is also highly concerned about
  • 00:20:20
    suppressing any potential western
  • 00:20:22
    influence in Myanmar, represented the
  • 00:20:24
    most by the MUG and the pro-democracy
  • 00:20:26
    resistance in the country. There isn't a
  • 00:20:28
    single country who directly borders
  • 00:20:30
    China that is explicitly pro-Western
  • 00:20:32
    right now, and China would like to keep
  • 00:20:34
    it that way. A pro-Western government in
  • 00:20:36
    power in Myanmar would become an outpost
  • 00:20:38
    of Western influence on China's
  • 00:20:40
    southwestern flank with potentially
  • 00:20:42
    disastrous consequences for China's
  • 00:20:44
    strategic planning regarding an invasion
  • 00:20:47
    of Taiwan. For this reason, China has
  • 00:20:49
    primarily supported the Tomado military
  • 00:20:51
    regime in power in the country, but has
  • 00:20:53
    also supported a whole host of rebel
  • 00:20:55
    EAOs at the same time who are not
  • 00:20:57
    ideologically committed to democracy,
  • 00:21:00
    undermining the NU and the pro-democracy
  • 00:21:01
    resistance while keeping Myanmar
  • 00:21:03
    chronically unstable between the Tombado
  • 00:21:06
    and the EAOS. Neither of which have
  • 00:21:08
    proven capable of decisively defeating
  • 00:21:09
    the other over the years since they both
  • 00:21:11
    received China's support in different
  • 00:21:14
    ways at different times. From Beijing's
  • 00:21:16
    perspective, the most ideal government
  • 00:21:17
    in power in Myanmar would be
  • 00:21:20
    pro-Chinese, like the Tombado has often
  • 00:21:22
    been. But barring that, their next most
  • 00:21:24
    preferable option would be an unstable
  • 00:21:26
    Myanmar that cannot effectively push
  • 00:21:28
    China's influence out. And the least
  • 00:21:30
    preferable option would be a fully
  • 00:21:32
    democratic federalized Myanmar that
  • 00:21:34
    would probably grow closer to the West
  • 00:21:36
    and undermine China's strategically
  • 00:21:38
    critical influence and investments in
  • 00:21:39
    the country. What are these
  • 00:21:41
    strategically critical Chinese
  • 00:21:43
    investments in the country? Look no
  • 00:21:44
    further than the oil and gas pipeline
  • 00:21:46
    that they helped construct across
  • 00:21:49
    Myanmar between 2009 and 2014 at a cost
  • 00:21:51
    of billions of dollars. These two
  • 00:21:53
    pipelines are known as the Sino Myanmar
  • 00:21:55
    pipelines and they were built as a part
  • 00:21:57
    of China's greater worldwide Belden Road
  • 00:21:59
    Initiative infrastructure program.
  • 00:22:01
    Myanmar's territory is critical to China
  • 00:22:04
    for these pipelines because they provide
  • 00:22:05
    China with a gateway into the Indian
  • 00:22:08
    Ocean and most importantly they provide
  • 00:22:10
    China with an alternative energy import
  • 00:22:12
    route to the straight of Malaa. Roughly
  • 00:22:15
    95% of China's energy imports currently
  • 00:22:17
    travel into the country by sea largely
  • 00:22:19
    on the backs of tankers coming from the
  • 00:22:21
    oil and gas-rich Persian Gulf as well as
  • 00:22:24
    Russia. 80% of China's energy imports
  • 00:22:26
    are currently forced by geography to
  • 00:22:27
    funnel themselves through the narrow
  • 00:22:29
    straight of Malaa on their way to
  • 00:22:31
    Chinese ports. A critical choke point
  • 00:22:33
    that could become blockaded by the US
  • 00:22:35
    Navy in the event of a war breaking out
  • 00:22:38
    over Taiwan. Such an action would
  • 00:22:39
    immediately eliminate the majority of
  • 00:22:41
    China's energy imports required to
  • 00:22:44
    sustain itself. So for decades, China
  • 00:22:46
    has been busy building out alternative
  • 00:22:48
    energy import routes to get around the
  • 00:22:50
    Malaa Strait problem. And the Sino
  • 00:22:52
    Myanmar pipelines are some of these most
  • 00:22:54
    important alternatives. They begin at
  • 00:22:56
    the deep water port of Kiakpu on the
  • 00:22:59
    island of Rabri on Myanmar's coast and
  • 00:23:02
    then travel for nearly 2500 km across
  • 00:23:04
    the whole country through mountainous
  • 00:23:06
    and jungle covered terrain before
  • 00:23:08
    crossing over the border into China
  • 00:23:09
    where they continue extending towards
  • 00:23:12
    the major city of Kanmi, the capital and
  • 00:23:13
    the largest city of China's southern
  • 00:23:16
    Yunan province. Financially, these twin
  • 00:23:18
    oil and gas pipelines cut off about
  • 00:23:21
    3,000 km and 5 to 6 days worth of travel
  • 00:23:23
    time for energy resources to reach
  • 00:23:26
    China's coasts, saving considerable
  • 00:23:28
    money on transportation costs. But more
  • 00:23:30
    importantly, they also enable China to
  • 00:23:32
    import at least some amount of oil and
  • 00:23:34
    gas without having to rely on shipping
  • 00:23:35
    through the vulnerable straight of
  • 00:23:37
    Malaa. While the pipelines don't have
  • 00:23:39
    enough capacity to support the whole of
  • 00:23:41
    China's energy needs, they are probably
  • 00:23:43
    enough to support at least southern
  • 00:23:45
    China's regional needs, and they are
  • 00:23:48
    still better than absolutely nothing. In
  • 00:23:50
    2019, the oil pipeline was able to
  • 00:23:53
    provide roughly 7 to 8% of China's total
  • 00:23:55
    crude oil imports, while the gas
  • 00:23:58
    pipeline was able to provide about 2.6%
  • 00:24:00
    of China's total gas imports. The gas
  • 00:24:02
    pipeline, however, has been operating
  • 00:24:05
    well below its total capacity for years
  • 00:24:07
    now. If China is eventually able to get
  • 00:24:09
    it operating at its full capacity, it
  • 00:24:12
    could provide more than 20% of China's
  • 00:24:14
    total gas imports instead. Together, the
  • 00:24:16
    pipeline significantly reduce China's
  • 00:24:19
    strategic exposure to its trade of Malaa
  • 00:24:21
    vulnerability, which gives China much
  • 00:24:23
    more strategic flexibility when it comes
  • 00:24:26
    to a potential assault on Taiwan. These
  • 00:24:27
    pipelines running across Myanmar are
  • 00:24:30
    therefore extremely valuable pieces of
  • 00:24:32
    strategic infrastructure to China and
  • 00:24:34
    they represent China's biggest single
  • 00:24:36
    interest and risk in the country. China
  • 00:24:38
    wants to guarantee the security of these
  • 00:24:41
    pipelines, but they run through several
  • 00:24:42
    sections of Myanmar currently under both
  • 00:24:44
    rebel and Hunter control that are
  • 00:24:47
    experiencing heavy armed fighting.
  • 00:24:48
    Despite this, however, throughout the
  • 00:24:51
    entire past four years of war in
  • 00:24:52
    Myanmar, the pipelines have remained
  • 00:24:55
    almost completely untouched by anyone
  • 00:24:57
    because neither the Huna nor any of the
  • 00:24:58
    rebels they're fighting against want to
  • 00:25:01
    incur China's wrath by ever touching
  • 00:25:03
    them. The pipelines both begin at the
  • 00:25:04
    port of Kyaku and then travel through
  • 00:25:06
    Myanmar's Rahian state first on their
  • 00:25:08
    way to China. But the Rahian state is
  • 00:25:10
    currently almost completely controlled
  • 00:25:12
    by one of the rebel EAOs fighting
  • 00:25:15
    against the Huna, the Arachan Army, or
  • 00:25:18
    AA. The AA is currently besieging the
  • 00:25:20
    port of Kiakpu, still under tenuous
  • 00:25:22
    Hunter control for now, where the
  • 00:25:24
    pipelines both begin at. The AA has an
  • 00:25:26
    estimated 50,000 fighters under their
  • 00:25:28
    command currently, and they've been
  • 00:25:29
    fighting against the Huna to try and
  • 00:25:31
    establish a similar status for
  • 00:25:33
    themselves in the Rahin state as exists
  • 00:25:35
    in the Was state. That is a de facto
  • 00:25:37
    independent state with complete autonomy
  • 00:25:40
    inside Myanmar. In the entire history of
  • 00:25:42
    the Myanmar conflict going back to the
  • 00:25:44
    country's independence, the central
  • 00:25:45
    government has never before faced the
  • 00:25:47
    prospect of a rebel faction coming so
  • 00:25:49
    close to controlling the entirety of one
  • 00:25:51
    of the country's states. And while you
  • 00:25:53
    might think that China would be
  • 00:25:54
    concerned about that since it's where
  • 00:25:56
    their pipelines begin at, they're not
  • 00:25:58
    really because they've actively pursued
  • 00:26:01
    friendly relations with both the AA and
  • 00:26:04
    the Huna alike. Both the Huna and the AA
  • 00:26:05
    have promised China that they won't
  • 00:26:07
    deploy heavy weaponry around the
  • 00:26:10
    pipelines. But both the Huna and the AA
  • 00:26:11
    have also allowed China to deploy their
  • 00:26:14
    own mercenaries to Kiakpu as of February
  • 00:26:17
    2025 in order to defend the entrance to
  • 00:26:19
    their pipelines. Which all on its own is
  • 00:26:21
    a breathtaking development in this war.
  • 00:26:23
    Only days before their deployment, the
  • 00:26:25
    Huna and Myanmar passed a new law that
  • 00:26:27
    for the first time allowed foreign
  • 00:26:29
    military personnel to operate within the
  • 00:26:31
    country, but only under the guise of
  • 00:26:34
    mercenaries. Chinese soldiers deployed
  • 00:26:35
    to Myanmar only have to resign from
  • 00:26:37
    their positions in the PLA before
  • 00:26:39
    assuming their new mercenary roles,
  • 00:26:42
    which effectively establishes a deacto
  • 00:26:44
    Chinese military deployment to Myanmar
  • 00:26:45
    without any of the diplomatic
  • 00:26:47
    complications that might arise from a
  • 00:26:49
    more public official deployment. The
  • 00:26:51
    move has essentially created a Chinese
  • 00:26:53
    version of the Russian Vagner Group, the
  • 00:26:56
    stateowned mercenary company that Russia
  • 00:26:57
    was able to deploy to theaters like
  • 00:26:59
    Ukraine and Syria while maintaining
  • 00:27:01
    plausible deniability. Now, for the
  • 00:27:04
    first time, Chinese mercenaries are
  • 00:27:05
    actively on the ground in Myanmar as
  • 00:27:08
    well with the explicit goal of defending
  • 00:27:10
    China's pipelines in the country from
  • 00:27:12
    the chaotic war that is raging all
  • 00:27:14
    around them. The pipeline extends
  • 00:27:15
    further through Hunto controlled
  • 00:27:17
    territory in the Bamar heartland in the
  • 00:27:19
    center of the country where it's come
  • 00:27:21
    under rebel attacks on at least two
  • 00:27:22
    separate occasions previously in
  • 00:27:25
    February of 2022 and then again in May
  • 00:27:28
    of 2023. But since then the rebels have
  • 00:27:29
    refrained from attacking the pipelines
  • 00:27:32
    again. Aware that China largely controls
  • 00:27:34
    the flow of their ammunition and weapon
  • 00:27:36
    supplies crossing over the poorest
  • 00:27:38
    border via proxy groups. As the
  • 00:27:40
    pipelines continue progressing through
  • 00:27:42
    Myanmar, they travel across the Shaun
  • 00:27:43
    state next before ultimately entering
  • 00:27:46
    into China. These days, the Shaun state
  • 00:27:48
    is a complicated, largely lawless
  • 00:27:50
    thunderdome of various waring EAOs,
  • 00:27:53
    pro-democracy rebels, warlords, criminal
  • 00:27:56
    syndicates in the Huna, a dangerous area
  • 00:27:58
    for China's critical pipelines to travel
  • 00:27:59
    through. probably worried about this
  • 00:28:02
    early on, the Tomado Huna attempted to
  • 00:28:04
    prove to China that they had their best
  • 00:28:06
    interest at heart by placing landmines
  • 00:28:08
    along the approaches to the pipelines to
  • 00:28:10
    prevent any potential sabotage. But now
  • 00:28:12
    the pipelines run almost entirely
  • 00:28:13
    through rebel held territory in the
  • 00:28:15
    Shaun state all the way from the Bamar
  • 00:28:18
    homeland right up to the Chinese border.
  • 00:28:19
    Meaning that both ends of the pipelines
  • 00:28:21
    in Myanmar where they begin and where
  • 00:28:23
    they enter China are currently under
  • 00:28:25
    rebel control. This is also a fairly
  • 00:28:27
    recent development though. And just like
  • 00:28:29
    in the Rakhine state where China largely
  • 00:28:31
    cooperates with the local EAOs, China
  • 00:28:33
    cooperates with the local EAOs in the
  • 00:28:35
    Shaun state as well. In periphery areas
  • 00:28:37
    where the Huna's armed forces were
  • 00:28:39
    stretched thin, such as in the Shaun
  • 00:28:40
    state, they relied on hiring private
  • 00:28:42
    militias and border guard forces to
  • 00:28:44
    fight against the resistance instead.
  • 00:28:47
    Low on cash though, the Huna paid these
  • 00:28:49
    proxies by essentially just allowing
  • 00:28:51
    them to open up drug trades and
  • 00:28:52
    establishing enormous criminal
  • 00:28:55
    enterprises like sketchy casinos and
  • 00:28:57
    online scam factories that mostly
  • 00:28:59
    targeted people in China. The scale of
  • 00:29:01
    these scam factories set up in the
  • 00:29:03
    lawless frontiers of the Shaun state are
  • 00:29:05
    difficult to comprehend, especially if
  • 00:29:06
    this is the first time you're ever
  • 00:29:09
    hearing about them. Entire high-rise
  • 00:29:10
    buildings were set up from nothing at
  • 00:29:12
    the remote lawless jungles full of
  • 00:29:14
    trafficked people smuggled in from all
  • 00:29:16
    around the world and forced to work
  • 00:29:18
    against their will in various crypto
  • 00:29:20
    scams, online dating frauds, Instagram
  • 00:29:22
    and Facebook deep fakes, and more. By
  • 00:29:27
    2023, the UN estimated that some 120,000
  • 00:29:29
    people had been trafficked and
  • 00:29:31
    imprisoned in these massive scam
  • 00:29:33
    factories across Myanmar, primarily
  • 00:29:35
    targeting Chinese nationals. These
  • 00:29:38
    Myanmar scam factories drained billions
  • 00:29:40
    of dollars out of the Chinese economy.
  • 00:29:43
    And in October of 2023, dozens of these
  • 00:29:44
    traffic people, some of whom were
  • 00:29:47
    undercover Chinese agents, managed to
  • 00:29:49
    stage an escape from one of these scam
  • 00:29:51
    factories in the city of Cocaine and
  • 00:29:53
    were then shot at by the scam facto's
  • 00:29:55
    guards, resulting in several of them
  • 00:29:57
    getting killed. Growing frustrated with
  • 00:30:00
    Automado's inability or refusal to shut
  • 00:30:01
    these mega scam factories down that were
  • 00:30:04
    now killing Chinese nationals, China
  • 00:30:05
    likely gave the green light to a
  • 00:30:07
    coalition of rebel factions known as the
  • 00:30:09
    Three Brotherhood Alliance to launch an
  • 00:30:11
    offensive against them in order to clear
  • 00:30:13
    the scam factories out. This offensive
  • 00:30:16
    became known as Operation 1027, named
  • 00:30:17
    after the date that it was launched on
  • 00:30:20
    October 27th of 2023. And to the
  • 00:30:22
    surprise of almost everyone, including
  • 00:30:25
    China, it quickly began steamrolling the
  • 00:30:27
    Huna. Thousands of the Tomado soldiers
  • 00:30:29
    simply surrendered or deserted and
  • 00:30:31
    hundreds of the Hundu's positions
  • 00:30:33
    collapsed. By the summer of 2024, the
  • 00:30:35
    Brotherhood managed to capture the city
  • 00:30:37
    of Lashio with a population of around
  • 00:30:40
    100,000 people, the largest city to ever
  • 00:30:42
    fall into the hands of an EAO in
  • 00:30:44
    Myanmar's entire postindependence
  • 00:30:46
    history. By that point, China feared the
  • 00:30:48
    forces that they themselves had
  • 00:30:50
    unleashed and worried that the Tomodo
  • 00:30:52
    regime was on the verge of collapse,
  • 00:30:54
    potentially leading to unpredictable
  • 00:30:56
    consequences, including China's worst
  • 00:30:58
    case scenario of a pro-Western
  • 00:30:59
    government coming to power in the
  • 00:31:01
    country. In an attempt to try and
  • 00:31:02
    restore its control over the conflict
  • 00:31:04
    and to ensure the security of its
  • 00:31:06
    pipelines, China began pulling its
  • 00:31:08
    strings on the Brotherhood, threatening
  • 00:31:09
    to sever their supplies of water and
  • 00:31:11
    electricity to them across the border.
  • 00:31:14
    and most escalatory of all, kidnapping
  • 00:31:15
    one of the three brotherhoods leaders
  • 00:31:17
    and demanding they immediately enter
  • 00:31:19
    into ceasefire negotiations. By April of
  • 00:31:22
    2025, the Brotherhood finally relented
  • 00:31:25
    to China's pressure and returned Lashio
  • 00:31:27
    back to the control of the Tomo Ha.
  • 00:31:28
    Although the fighting across the Shaun
  • 00:31:30
    state and elsewhere in Myanmar
  • 00:31:33
    continues, as Operation 1027 continued
  • 00:31:35
    gaining momentum here, the tomado began
  • 00:31:37
    growing increasingly desperate to halt
  • 00:31:40
    them by resorting to massive and
  • 00:31:42
    indiscriminate air strikes and artillery
  • 00:31:44
    barges against civilian targets,
  • 00:31:46
    dramatically increasing the casualties
  • 00:31:49
    of this horrible conflict. Knowing how
  • 00:31:51
    much importance both the Hunda and the
  • 00:31:53
    rebels place on appeasing China, some of
  • 00:31:55
    Myanmar civilians have increasingly
  • 00:31:58
    started sheltering around the pipelines
  • 00:32:00
    since they know that it's the last place
  • 00:32:03
    either side will ever willingly attack
  • 00:32:06
    and thus it's maybe the safest location
  • 00:32:08
    for anyone to be at in the entire
  • 00:32:09
    country. Now, in addition to the
  • 00:32:12
    pipelines, China is also heavily
  • 00:32:13
    interested in Myanmar's own natural
  • 00:32:16
    resources as well. Myammar generally
  • 00:32:18
    produces about half of the entire
  • 00:32:20
    world's heavy rare earth elements. A
  • 00:32:22
    subset of rare earths, including turbium
  • 00:32:25
    and drosium that are critical for green
  • 00:32:27
    technologies like wind turbines and EV
  • 00:32:29
    batteries. Virtually all of Myanmar's
  • 00:32:31
    heavy rare earths are also produced in a
  • 00:32:33
    relatively narrow mining belt in the
  • 00:32:35
    country's northern catchin state
  • 00:32:37
    immediately across the border from
  • 00:32:39
    China. But as the Chinese encouraged
  • 00:32:40
    three brotherhood alliance routed the
  • 00:32:42
    Tomado Huna and the Shaun state during
  • 00:32:45
    the 1027 offensive, the Catchin
  • 00:32:48
    Independence Army or the KIA, an EAO
  • 00:32:49
    operating within the Catchin State,
  • 00:32:51
    managed to take advantage of the chaos
  • 00:32:53
    and seize control over this heavy rare
  • 00:32:55
    earth mining belt only a year later in
  • 00:32:59
    October of 2024, dealing yet another
  • 00:33:01
    major defeat to the Hunter. Since then,
  • 00:33:03
    the production of half of the world's
  • 00:33:05
    heavy rare earths have been controlled
  • 00:33:07
    by a rebel army. One of the oldest in
  • 00:33:09
    the country going back decades that has
  • 00:33:11
    sought to achieve autonomy for the
  • 00:33:13
    predominantly Christian catchin people
  • 00:33:15
    from the Buddhist Bamar majority. China
  • 00:33:17
    dominates the processing of heavy rare
  • 00:33:19
    earth elements. But they're also very
  • 00:33:21
    reliant on importing the raw materials
  • 00:33:23
    from this mining belt across the border
  • 00:33:26
    in Myanmar that the KIA now controls,
  • 00:33:28
    which has given the KIA more leverage
  • 00:33:30
    over China than almost any other rebel
  • 00:33:33
    group in Myanmar. In December of 2024,
  • 00:33:35
    the KIA advance continued and they began
  • 00:33:38
    laying siege to the major city of Bamo,
  • 00:33:39
    which has remained under siege by them
  • 00:33:41
    up until this video's production in mid
  • 00:33:45
    2025. Bamo is a major logistics hub for
  • 00:33:48
    the Huna and home to around 166,000
  • 00:33:50
    people. Meaning that if it falls to the
  • 00:33:52
    KIA, it will be by far the biggest city
  • 00:33:54
    to fall to the rebels in Myanmar to
  • 00:33:57
    date. Evidently fearful of another major
  • 00:33:58
    city falling out of the Hunter's control
  • 00:34:01
    to a rebel faction, China allegedly
  • 00:34:03
    issued an ultimatum to the KIA in early
  • 00:34:06
    2025 to lift their siege of Bommo or
  • 00:34:08
    China would cease buying rare earths
  • 00:34:11
    from the now KIA controlled mines, which
  • 00:34:13
    generated about 1.4 $4 billion worth of
  • 00:34:16
    trade in 2023 when the HUNA still
  • 00:34:18
    controlled them. But the KIA, knowing
  • 00:34:20
    full well how much China depends on
  • 00:34:21
    these heavy rare earth mines for their
  • 00:34:24
    own processing, has essentially tried
  • 00:34:25
    calling their bluff and has so far
  • 00:34:28
    refused to cooperate with their demands,
  • 00:34:30
    continuing to besiege BAMO anyway in
  • 00:34:32
    defiance with the belief that China will
  • 00:34:33
    eventually cave in and resume trading
  • 00:34:36
    with them again sooner or later. If BAMO
  • 00:34:38
    falls, the KIA would be one step closer
  • 00:34:41
    to achieving full control of the entire
  • 00:34:43
    catchin state. And if that happens, they
  • 00:34:45
    believe that China would be left with no
  • 00:34:47
    other choice but to sideline its support
  • 00:34:49
    for the Huna and negotiate with them
  • 00:34:51
    directly instead, achieving both of
  • 00:34:53
    their goals for autonomy and continuing
  • 00:34:55
    to trade with China in the long run.
  • 00:34:57
    Anyway, this development in the catchin
  • 00:34:59
    state highlights the limits of China's
  • 00:35:01
    control of events in Myanmar. While
  • 00:35:02
    Beijing was able to use the Three
  • 00:35:04
    Brotherhood alliance to clear out the
  • 00:35:06
    huge scam factories on their border and
  • 00:35:08
    then pressured them into not going too
  • 00:35:09
    far by making them surrender their
  • 00:35:12
    control over Lashio, they have not been
  • 00:35:14
    able to compel the KIA into abandoning
  • 00:35:16
    their siege of Bommo. And so, ever since
  • 00:35:18
    late 2023, the rebels have been growing
  • 00:35:20
    increasingly powerful across the
  • 00:35:22
    country's peripheries. The Katchchin,
  • 00:35:25
    Shaun, Kaya, Cayen, Chin, and Rahine
  • 00:35:27
    states on the peripheries, mostly
  • 00:35:29
    populated by ethnic minorities are
  • 00:35:31
    currently mostly controlled by rebel EAO
  • 00:35:33
    factions. While the Bamar majority
  • 00:35:35
    interior is in a state where much of the
  • 00:35:36
    countryside is controlled by the
  • 00:35:39
    pro-democracy NUG rebels, with all of
  • 00:35:41
    the major cities and urban areas still
  • 00:35:43
    controlled by the Tomado Huna, battered
  • 00:35:45
    and demoralized, the Huna has grown
  • 00:35:47
    increasingly desperate and vicious to
  • 00:35:49
    remain in power. At the onset of the
  • 00:35:52
    coup in early 2021, the Tombbo had an
  • 00:35:54
    estimated 300,000 soldiers within their
  • 00:35:57
    ranks, which has since dwindled down to
  • 00:35:59
    only around 130,000 still remaining
  • 00:36:02
    today in mid 2025. As a result of high
  • 00:36:05
    casualties and rampant desertion in a
  • 00:36:07
    major sign of the Tomado's growing
  • 00:36:09
    desperation, they began implementing
  • 00:36:11
    forced conscription of men under their
  • 00:36:13
    control in 2024 to address their growing
  • 00:36:15
    manpower issues. and they've since
  • 00:36:18
    forcibly conscripted around 30,000 men
  • 00:36:20
    in the country, which has resulted in a
  • 00:36:22
    huge exodus of young people fleeing from
  • 00:36:24
    the country's major cities in order to
  • 00:36:26
    dodge the possibility of becoming
  • 00:36:29
    drafted, further worsening the country's
  • 00:36:31
    crippling economic issues amidst the
  • 00:36:33
    war. Then to make matters in Myanmar
  • 00:36:35
    somehow even worse than they already
  • 00:36:37
    were, the country was also rocked by a
  • 00:36:39
    devastating earthquake on the 28th of
  • 00:36:42
    March 2025 with an epicenter located
  • 00:36:44
    only 20 km away from the city of
  • 00:36:47
    Mandandalay. The second largest city in
  • 00:36:49
    the country right along the Sagang fault
  • 00:36:50
    line at the intersection of the India
  • 00:36:52
    plate and the Sunda plate with a
  • 00:36:55
    magnitude of 7.7 on the RTER scale. It
  • 00:36:56
    was astonishingly the most powerful
  • 00:36:58
    earthquake to strike Myanmar in more
  • 00:37:02
    than a century since 1912. And it just
  • 00:37:04
    happened to strike at probably the worst
  • 00:37:06
    possible moment while the country was
  • 00:37:08
    consumed by its debilitating civil war.
  • 00:37:10
    The true extent of damage caused by this
  • 00:37:12
    earthquake to the country is impossible
  • 00:37:14
    to know due to the civil war and the
  • 00:37:15
    difficulty of acquiring accurate data
  • 00:37:17
    from rebel controlled areas in the
  • 00:37:19
    countryside. That being said, there were
  • 00:37:22
    many estimates. The World Bank estimated
  • 00:37:23
    that the earthquake caused around 11
  • 00:37:25
    billion dollars worth of property damage
  • 00:37:28
    in Myanmar, equivalent to about 14% of
  • 00:37:31
    Myanmar's current GDP. Tens of thousands
  • 00:37:32
    of buildings across the country either
  • 00:37:34
    collapsed or were severely damaged,
  • 00:37:37
    while at least 5,300 people were killed
  • 00:37:39
    in the disaster. The enormous scale of
  • 00:37:41
    this disaster only added on further
  • 00:37:43
    misery in Myanmar after more than 4
  • 00:37:46
    years of full-scale civil war that had
  • 00:37:48
    already left tens of thousands of others
  • 00:37:51
    dead. And despite initially agreeing to
  • 00:37:52
    a ceasefire in the war to help assist
  • 00:37:54
    with search and rescue and disaster
  • 00:37:57
    recovery operations, the Tombado almost
  • 00:37:58
    immediately broke it and continued
  • 00:38:00
    launching hundreds of air strikes
  • 00:38:01
    against rebel forces throughout the
  • 00:38:04
    country only days later. Almost
  • 00:38:06
    immediately returning the country right
  • 00:38:08
    back to full-scale fighting at top of
  • 00:38:10
    the ruins left behind by the earthquake
  • 00:38:12
    only days beforehand. By this point,
  • 00:38:15
    Myanmar has become a failed state in a m
  • 00:38:17
    of chaos, instability, and war in the
  • 00:38:19
    heart of Southeast Asia. With an
  • 00:38:21
    unpredictable and deeply uncertain
  • 00:38:23
    future, the rebels, while successful
  • 00:38:25
    around the peripheries of Myanmar, are
  • 00:38:27
    struggling to capture major cities and
  • 00:38:29
    are struggling to advance deeper into
  • 00:38:31
    the Bamar heartland, where soldiers
  • 00:38:33
    belonging to the Tamado Huna, who are
  • 00:38:35
    predominantly Bamars, will likely fight
  • 00:38:37
    harder to repel advancing ethnic
  • 00:38:39
    minority armies than they have
  • 00:38:41
    previously out in the frontiers. Many of
  • 00:38:43
    the EAOs have grown accustomed over
  • 00:38:45
    these past few years to controlling
  • 00:38:47
    their own territories, collecting their
  • 00:38:48
    own taxes and revenues and entering into
  • 00:38:50
    their own negotiations with outside
  • 00:38:52
    actors like China. And most of them seek
  • 00:38:54
    a model for their own territories like
  • 00:38:57
    the Wall State was granted back in 2008.
  • 00:38:58
    They pretty much all seek to become
  • 00:39:01
    deacto independent states within Myanmar
  • 00:39:03
    with complete autonomy from the central
  • 00:39:04
    government with their own totally
  • 00:39:06
    separate governments and armies. and
  • 00:39:08
    they'll probably continue distrusting
  • 00:39:10
    the central government in the country
  • 00:39:12
    even if the tommo is removed from power
  • 00:39:14
    and the pro-democracy nu forces take
  • 00:39:16
    over in their place owing to the past
  • 00:39:18
    several decades of prior negative
  • 00:39:21
    experience with the insistence of China.
  • 00:39:23
    The tomado plans to host a new election
  • 00:39:25
    in the country later this year or in
  • 00:39:28
    early 2026 to try and legitimize and
  • 00:39:30
    stabilize their rule in Myanmar. But how
  • 00:39:32
    exactly they plan to do that with the
  • 00:39:33
    civil war still continuing and with most
  • 00:39:35
    of the country under rebel control will
  • 00:39:38
    be anyone's best guess. There are
  • 00:39:39
    several different paths forward that
  • 00:39:41
    Myanmar could potentially take.
  • 00:39:43
    Continued unstable civil war and chaos
  • 00:39:45
    like Syria or Libya have faced for much
  • 00:39:47
    longer with an undemocratic military
  • 00:39:49
    regime that refuses to ever concede
  • 00:39:52
    power. a victorious nug democratic
  • 00:39:54
    movement that finally transforms the
  • 00:39:56
    country into a federalized system with
  • 00:39:58
    almost completely autonomous statelets
  • 00:40:00
    around the peripheries or further
  • 00:40:02
    fragmentation and balkanization that
  • 00:40:04
    leads to a total state collapse along
  • 00:40:06
    ethnic and religious lines like what
  • 00:40:09
    happened in Yugoslavia during the 1990s
  • 00:40:11
    leaving behind a collection of small
  • 00:40:13
    ethnic statelets around the peripheries
  • 00:40:15
    and a bar majority rump state left
  • 00:40:17
    behind in the center and all of this is
  • 00:40:19
    happening as China continues to watch on
  • 00:40:21
    from the outside with everinccreasing
  • 00:40:23
    alarm and anxiety over their pipelines
  • 00:40:25
    and their access to rare earth mines in
  • 00:40:27
    the country. Increasing Chinese military
  • 00:40:29
    involvement to secure their investments
  • 00:40:31
    and interests. Nearly a million
  • 00:40:33
    stateless ethnic Rohinda who continue
  • 00:40:36
    living in exile and refugee camps across
  • 00:40:38
    the border in Bangladesh unable to
  • 00:40:40
    return. And all as other major ongoing
  • 00:40:42
    wars in Ukraine and Gaza continue
  • 00:40:44
    pulling the western world's attention
  • 00:40:46
    away from this other horrendous major
  • 00:40:49
    conflict going on. News media in the
  • 00:40:51
    western world in general has seen a
  • 00:40:52
    pretty significant downfall over the
  • 00:40:53
    past few years that almost all of us
  • 00:40:55
    have felt in one way or another. The
  • 00:40:57
    older business model of newspapers
  • 00:40:58
    stopped working as readers began
  • 00:41:00
    switching to the internet and in the
  • 00:41:02
    modern digital space. Media outlets are
  • 00:41:03
    incentivized to chase clicks in order to
  • 00:41:06
    increase revenue. But chasing after
  • 00:41:07
    clicks means shifting towards more
  • 00:41:09
    biased coverage of events that's more
  • 00:41:10
    likely to trigger people's anger in
  • 00:41:13
    order to capture their engagement. I
  • 00:41:14
    know that over the past few years, it's
  • 00:41:16
    gotten harder and harder to cut through
  • 00:41:17
    all of this and develop a solid
  • 00:41:19
    understanding of reality, but that's
  • 00:41:21
    exactly what this video sponsor, Ground
  • 00:41:24
    News, is trying to fix. Take this recent
  • 00:41:25
    story about the Israeli military
  • 00:41:27
    initiating air drops of aid to the Gaza
  • 00:41:29
    Strip. The overall coverage of this
  • 00:41:31
    event is fairly balanced with a slight
  • 00:41:33
    leaning towards the left, but ground
  • 00:41:35
    news identifies how left-leaning sources
  • 00:41:37
    were more likely to underscore Gaza's
  • 00:41:40
    humanitarian catastrophe with terms like
  • 00:41:42
    man-made starvation crisis and headlines
  • 00:41:44
    framing Israel as seizing essential
  • 00:41:46
    supplies. While right-leading sources
  • 00:41:48
    were more likely to emphasize Israel's
  • 00:41:50
    swift immediate resumption of aid
  • 00:41:52
    accompanied by language like Hamas
  • 00:41:54
    controlled Gaza to question the aid's
  • 00:41:56
    legitimacy. In addition, you can see
  • 00:41:58
    what the source's ownership structure
  • 00:41:59
    is, its historic factuality, and its
  • 00:42:01
    typical political slant. But I think
  • 00:42:03
    that the most fascinating feature of
  • 00:42:05
    ground news is blind spot, where you can
  • 00:42:07
    see the major stories that people on the
  • 00:42:08
    other side of the political aisle are
  • 00:42:11
    seeing, but you're not. For example,
  • 00:42:13
    right now, the right is talking about a
  • 00:42:14
    secret meeting that France held with
  • 00:42:17
    Hamas several years ago back in 2020,
  • 00:42:19
    while the left is talking about how the
  • 00:42:20
    Canadian prime minister called Israel's
  • 00:42:22
    denial of humanitarian aid to Gaza a
  • 00:42:25
    violation of international law. I
  • 00:42:27
    genuinely believe that ground news is a
  • 00:42:29
    seriously useful tool in today's media
  • 00:42:31
    environment. I use it all the time
  • 00:42:33
    myself for research whenever my videos
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    touch on politically charged subjects,
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    which are basically all of them. It's an
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    understanding a nuanced view of the
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    thank you if you sign up. And as always,
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