00:00:00
now look if you want to put yourself in
00:00:02
the best possible position for this bull
00:00:04
run if you want to make the right
00:00:06
choices at the right time if you want to
00:00:08
be one step ahead of the herd and again
00:00:11
not just make the most money but do so
00:00:13
in a very safe way this is the video you
00:00:15
need to watch I mark my words this is
00:00:18
urgent as it's just as simple as that
00:00:20
what are we talking about it's not exit
00:00:22
levels it's not PR predictions it's stop
00:00:24
buying the coins guys this is going to
00:00:26
help you do all of that it's regarding
00:00:28
human emotion no we're not going back to
00:00:30
school this isn't something that you can
00:00:33
afford to skip this is a must know
00:00:35
especially if you're a new crypto
00:00:36
investor trying to get your bearings in
00:00:38
the market it's all very confusing I get
00:00:40
it right but this is something you need
00:00:43
to listen to Because mark my words it's
00:00:45
going to RCT upwards of 97% of you in
00:00:49
this market took me years to get this in
00:00:51
the back of my mind and I'm here to
00:00:53
explain it to you hopefully in less than
00:00:55
20 minutes all I ask for all the hours I
00:00:57
go into making these videos in the
00:00:58
countless hours used to research to
00:01:01
bring you the nobs crypto truth a like
00:01:03
on the video would be greatly
00:01:04
appreciated so thank you for everyone
00:01:06
that goes ahead and supports channel in
00:01:07
that way and make sure you're subscribed
00:01:09
that's not supporting me that's going to
00:01:11
be supporting
00:01:12
you let's get down to business as I said
00:01:15
everything is based on human emotion in
00:01:18
any Market crypto or otherwise but
00:01:20
crypto specifically it's hyperbolic I
00:01:23
often times refer to crypto as basically
00:01:25
a child and regular markets traditional
00:01:28
markets are kind of like an adult if say
00:01:31
for example the S&P 500 gets news that
00:01:34
say World War III begins to break out
00:01:37
heaven forbid of course that's going to
00:01:39
impact those markets substantially but
00:01:41
we all know crypto will react to that 10
00:01:44
times worse because it's 10 times more
00:01:46
speculative it's as simple as that and
00:01:48
what do all these markets have in common
00:01:50
again markets are just people it's
00:01:52
psychology it's people versus people
00:01:55
always some examples here what happens
00:01:57
when the price goes down all right on
00:01:58
your favorite crypto coins if you
00:02:00
haven't got conviction you want to
00:02:01
immediately sell if there's news of an
00:02:03
upcoming huge announcement and it's
00:02:05
maybe hinted at the news it's like kind
00:02:07
of confirmed but not actually officially
00:02:09
starting just yet kind of like the news
00:02:11
that the ETFs on bitcoin were coming out
00:02:13
you want to buy it typically that means
00:02:15
by the rumor sell the news what happens
00:02:17
when there's a big unlock coming out for
00:02:19
a coin well of course you want to sell
00:02:21
most of us say well hey like in pits
00:02:24
example if the supply is going to
00:02:26
increase 2 and a half times diluting the
00:02:29
share
00:02:30
that is going to mean a rough 2 and a
00:02:32
half decrease in price kind of like this
00:02:34
where the price just falls off a cliff
00:02:36
this is pretty common right in the
00:02:37
economies all around the world when
00:02:39
inflation increases that dilutes the
00:02:41
purchasing power of the dollar or
00:02:44
whatever it may be currency in that
00:02:45
particular economy likewise as well
00:02:47
individual companies with stocks if they
00:02:49
have a new funding ground and they
00:02:51
pretty much mint new shares it dilutes
00:02:53
the existing shareholders and of course
00:02:55
that means that their Shares are worth
00:02:57
less however What if I told you that
00:03:00
actually that was completely wrong in
00:03:02
crypto and the consequence of this is
00:03:05
actually more severe than you think many
00:03:07
of you will be listening this going to
00:03:08
yourselves okay I see where kiran's
00:03:10
going here he's going to start talking
00:03:11
about tokenomics and more specifically
00:03:13
token unlocks but guys this is why most
00:03:16
of you will not make money in the market
00:03:18
and why guys like me that understand
00:03:20
this play you time and time again like
00:03:24
it's a cheat code and you wonder where
00:03:26
did I go wrong if you're putting your
00:03:28
hard-earned cash into this Market into
00:03:30
coins you have to at least understand
00:03:33
this basic part of tokenomics missing
00:03:35
out on these opportunities right so
00:03:36
looking at a coin like pith over here
00:03:39
with these massive unlock schedules okay
00:03:42
again Celestia massive unlock schedule
00:03:44
optimism massive unlock over here over
00:03:46
2x in its Supply salana actually 8X its
00:03:51
Supply in the last cycle and from this
00:03:53
point would you believe me if I said
00:03:55
salana
00:03:57
50x if you saw a coin in this cycle that
00:04:00
had this looking chart I guarantee you
00:04:02
you and every other influencer in this
00:04:03
damn Market would be fading that coin so
00:04:06
understanding this I cannot
00:04:07
underestimate could lead you missing out
00:04:09
on a whole bunch of gains and you could
00:04:11
be potentially missing out on buying a
00:04:13
great dip into a coin you maybe have
00:04:16
interest on like I called for pith over
00:04:18
here and it's unlock it had an unlock
00:04:20
over here it actually dipped it went
00:04:22
from 44 cents at that time down to 38
00:04:24
Cent so it was a good buying opportunity
00:04:26
and then on the day of the unlock it
00:04:28
actually spiked oh massive unlock
00:04:30
happening here and it spiked on the day
00:04:32
of the unlock and this is the recurring
00:04:34
theme for every other project for that
00:04:36
matter that has a massive unlock so why
00:04:38
does this happen to put it simply
00:04:39
because this will very easily confuse
00:04:41
many people and that's why I actually
00:04:43
created the tokenomics master sheet I
00:04:44
spent 10,000 us creating this sheet it's
00:04:48
almost finished and I'm going to be
00:04:49
providing it completely for free in the
00:04:51
private Community by the way all you
00:04:53
have to do on this sheet is very simply
00:04:55
look at two numbers to determine whether
00:04:57
a coin is a good or bad buy basic
00:04:59
unlocks that's why I created it to save
00:05:01
you guys time stress and hassle but to
00:05:04
put it simply when you have an unlock
00:05:06
with pith or any other coin for that
00:05:08
matter the unlock itself does not impact
00:05:12
the token price this unlock will not
00:05:15
impact the price at all and the reason
00:05:18
being is because when these unlocks
00:05:20
happen in crypto it's Unique these are
00:05:22
coded into the blockchain into the
00:05:24
actual protocol itself so when they
00:05:26
happen they aren't unlocked and then go
00:05:30
and are sold on the open market
00:05:32
therefore actually decreasing the price
00:05:35
and then sent off to whoever the tokens
00:05:38
are being sent to they bypass that
00:05:40
middle step and they go straight from
00:05:41
the unlock and are sent directly over to
00:05:44
the person getting the tokens it's the
00:05:46
exact same as if Satoshi Nakamoto came
00:05:49
back and transferred those 1 million
00:05:51
tokens he or she owns and sent them
00:05:54
directly to me it will not impact the
00:05:56
price of Bitcoin the only time the price
00:05:59
would ever be imp impacted is if
00:06:00
everyone shut themselves which no doubt
00:06:02
at that point everyone would and they
00:06:04
would just free for sell Bitcoin like
00:06:06
there was no tomorrow okay so it's
00:06:08
called an OTC trade or overthe counter
00:06:10
trade this is the exact reason why the
00:06:12
big institutions and big Wales and any
00:06:15
sort of project will often times ask
00:06:17
market makers or exchangers themselves
00:06:20
hey we have 300,000 Bitcoin we want to
00:06:23
sell this rather than selling this on an
00:06:25
exchange like binance therefore
00:06:27
destroying the price of Bitcoin entire
00:06:30
and also slippage killing the overall
00:06:32
gains I'm going to make I'm going to
00:06:35
agree with binance directly or a market
00:06:37
maker hey guys I'll give you my 300K
00:06:40
Bitcoin and I want per Bitcoin this
00:06:43
price and that trade happens I send them
00:06:45
my Bitcoin and that does not impact the
00:06:47
price at all this exact exchange of
00:06:49
hands is what happens when tokens are
00:06:51
unlocked so the token unlock itself
00:06:53
isn't what is the danger thing it's not
00:06:56
scary at all the actual scary part is
00:06:59
when the unlock gives those tokens to
00:07:02
people or entities that are likely to
00:07:04
sell like Celestia this is one case
00:07:07
where the unlock gave all the unlocked
00:07:09
tokens to investors and that means that
00:07:13
of course the unlock could have meant
00:07:15
the price of Celestia would crumble down
00:07:18
now there's a whole bunch of other
00:07:19
reasons I could go into as to why it
00:07:21
didn't actually ended up happening on
00:07:23
the day and why it was a great buy
00:07:24
opportunity most importantly because
00:07:26
these investors as you just saw have
00:07:29
like what even is this like 90% of their
00:07:32
tokens to still actually have unlocked
00:07:34
here and ultimately they're not going to
00:07:36
tank the price of Celestia just because
00:07:39
they're up even a couple hundred
00:07:41
multiples they know the bull Run's
00:07:42
happening they'll likely be able to sell
00:07:45
in May June July of next year and have
00:07:47
maybe 50% of their tokens and have a
00:07:49
much higher Celestial price so there's a
00:07:51
lot of I guess Market psychological
00:07:54
reasons that go into these things but to
00:07:56
keep it simple for this particular video
00:07:58
it matters who who has the tokens and
00:08:01
are they incentivized to want to sell
00:08:03
straight away this is also why another
00:08:05
massive policy in crypto regarding
00:08:07
inflation is also wrong people think
00:08:09
inflation itself is the exact same as
00:08:11
inflation in traditional economies it is
00:08:14
not the reason being is because just
00:08:16
like vesting schedules we know exactly
00:08:19
who is getting these tokens when the
00:08:21
inflation happens inflation occurs from
00:08:24
when validators and delegators receive
00:08:26
rewards for securing the network they
00:08:28
receive Rewards
00:08:30
and by doing so of course the network is
00:08:32
more secure However if those of you who
00:08:34
have ever delegated or sted your tokens
00:08:36
before you know that when you get these
00:08:38
tokens passively every day or every week
00:08:41
you don't instantly sell those tokens
00:08:42
you hoard them for of course the
00:08:44
appreciation of the price of the token
00:08:46
itself because you believe in the
00:08:47
project you might sell at the end of the
00:08:49
bll UN sure but you're not going to sell
00:08:51
now and that's what I'm saying inflation
00:08:53
doesn't even directly impact the price
00:08:56
of the token itself like some people may
00:08:58
assume so this is why we can actually
00:09:00
have a look at this and look at a
00:09:02
vesting schedle like salana and actually
00:09:04
say hey if we actually have a look at
00:09:06
who's getting their tokens is it the
00:09:08
foundation well these guys aren't going
00:09:10
to want to sell their tokens because
00:09:11
salana isn't going to want to get all
00:09:14
their Foundation tokens and dump them on
00:09:16
the open market why would they do that
00:09:18
okay or the community or strategic
00:09:20
rounds the Grant Pool whatever it may be
00:09:22
we can see who has their tokens and are
00:09:25
they likely to sell that is why in the
00:09:27
tokenomics master sheet we can look at
00:09:29
these actually occurring like with
00:09:31
injective for example here or near
00:09:33
protocol and see who has access to the
00:09:36
tokens between now and the end of 2025
00:09:39
so likely the last time we could
00:09:41
possibly end up selling our coins here
00:09:43
and then based on that you know core
00:09:45
contributors here are they going to want
00:09:47
to sell obviously they investors or is
00:09:49
it going to be given to community grants
00:09:50
well the community grants aren't going
00:09:51
to sell they might be given to entities
00:09:54
working in the near ecosystem then they
00:09:57
might get their near tokens and want to
00:09:59
sell but that's a few exchanges of hands
00:10:01
that we can't account for so it matters
00:10:02
who has the tokens not how much of the
00:10:05
supply is unlocked so obviously that's
00:10:07
probably one of the biggest and most
00:10:09
prominent issues I find the majority of
00:10:11
people facing in crypto is seeing the
00:10:14
unlocks and applying traditional ways of
00:10:16
thinking to this process when in reality
00:10:19
it's kind of bizarre but it's actually
00:10:21
very wrong this just means that you
00:10:23
might miss out on buying a great coin
00:10:24
like on that I was calling it 50 cents
00:10:27
that's now 4ex and likely could even
00:10:29
even go up in 10x from here in its
00:10:31
narrative pump and there is an argument
00:10:33
to be made yes unfortunately again
00:10:36
because like I said before it's a market
00:10:38
it's people versus people whatever the
00:10:39
majority thinks will likely of course
00:10:41
happen if the unlock itself is seen as a
00:10:44
detrimental thing in the case of Ando
00:10:46
pith and many other coins or as some of
00:10:49
the topics I'll mention here in a second
00:10:50
with fdv and others if people perceive
00:10:53
it generally speaking to be a bad thing
00:10:55
it's going to actually come into
00:10:57
fruition however like many things crypto
00:11:00
it's only perceived a certain way when
00:11:02
people realize oh that wasn't actually
00:11:05
as bad as what it was and the price of
00:11:07
the coin starts moving up everything is
00:11:09
forgotten the blinders go on and then
00:11:11
they start Panic buying and that's
00:11:13
likely going to be you as well so of
00:11:15
course we can front run this and that's
00:11:17
what we're trying to do here now with
00:11:19
all that being said I do want to talk a
00:11:20
little bit about a very specific
00:11:22
situation when it comes to having a
00:11:24
certain amount of market cap flowing
00:11:27
into a coin to maintain a certain price
00:11:30
in relation to unlocks ultimately a lot
00:11:32
of people do have this wrong but they
00:11:34
think that an unlock increases the
00:11:36
supply of the token and the market cap
00:11:38
has to actually increase in terms of
00:11:40
money invested in it to maintain that
00:11:43
current price the unlock with pith per
00:11:45
example here where the market cut went
00:11:47
from 660 million up to 1.7 billion sort
00:11:51
of get 2 and a2x the market cap they
00:11:54
think that actually that requires that
00:11:57
much money to be invested into pth to
00:11:59
keep pith at the same price it pretty
00:12:02
much was down here again it bely moved
00:12:03
in price but of course that is wrong
00:12:06
right because the way that market cap is
00:12:08
found is price time Supply so when you
00:12:10
have an increase in Supply the market
00:12:12
cap will actually move up regardless and
00:12:14
like I just showed you with pith that's
00:12:16
why we have these massive instant single
00:12:18
day spikes when a massive unlock occurs
00:12:21
it's kind of beating dead horse here but
00:12:23
hopefully it's starting to make a little
00:12:24
bit of sense price and market cap is a
00:12:27
one-way Street the market cap it's s can
00:12:29
never influence the price because the
00:12:32
market cap is only ever found from the
00:12:35
price I know it's kind of confusing when
00:12:36
you think of it like very basically but
00:12:38
if you actually dive into it the market
00:12:41
cap is reflected up and down from the
00:12:43
circulating Supply if you took out a
00:12:46
million tokens today from Bitcoin they
00:12:48
never existed ever you didn't burn them
00:12:50
you just took them out of Supply they
00:12:51
never existed of course that would then
00:12:53
change the current market cap if you
00:12:55
threw in an additional million Bitcoin
00:12:57
today that would increase the market cap
00:13:00
okay but the price would never in that
00:13:01
whole process of the market cap moving
00:13:03
up and down depending on the supply it
00:13:04
would never change it would never ever
00:13:07
change in that process but you add in
00:13:10
you buy a whole bunch of Bitcoin on the
00:13:11
open market and you actually push the
00:13:13
price up the market capab will always
00:13:15
move with the price so it's a one-way
00:13:17
Street and to think that an unlock has
00:13:20
to have that much money invested in it
00:13:22
to maintain the price is actually
00:13:24
backwards okay again like I showed you
00:13:27
here with pith and the pith example
00:13:29
again this just goes price times Supply
00:13:32
equals the market cap so you don't have
00:13:34
to have that much money invested in it
00:13:35
which is why I say you know for pith to
00:13:38
2x the market cap doesn't actually need
00:13:41
to have invested into it 3.6 or whatever
00:13:44
it is billion dollar in total so
00:13:46
doubling it it doesn't need the extra
00:13:47
$1.8 billion it just needs the price on
00:13:51
the exchanges to actually go up on
00:13:53
average now again I can get very nuan
00:13:56
here already I might be losing some of
00:13:57
you guys thinking what talking about
00:13:59
here so I just want to keep this basic
00:14:01
for now to get you guys into the sort of
00:14:04
understanding and thinking here that
00:14:05
it's not always the market cap that is
00:14:07
required to move the price it's actually
00:14:10
the price aggregated here and again like
00:14:12
I've been trying to make a very
00:14:13
important point the unlocks themselves
00:14:15
do not affect the price as it looks
00:14:19
initially you've got to dive a little
00:14:21
bit deeper okay and again this is the
00:14:23
difference here between an investor
00:14:25
that's going to make a shitload of money
00:14:27
in crypto and someone who is just going
00:14:29
to have to rely on an influencer in
00:14:31
their calls this bull run this is a part
00:14:33
of the game where we kind of have to
00:14:35
dive into at this point in the cycle and
00:14:37
really look to take advantage as I said
00:14:38
of these quality coins like Ono for
00:14:40
example one of my biggest pet peeves in
00:14:41
crypto is this whole fdv debacle people
00:14:44
look at fdv or fully deleted value and
00:14:46
they think that fdv has any sort of
00:14:48
importance in the market it all is again
00:14:50
based on unlocks fdv says hey what would
00:14:53
be the mark cap of Ono if all the tokens
00:14:55
were in circulation okay so again we
00:14:57
actually track this in the toomics
00:14:59
master sheet here Fondo all right the
00:15:01
fdv is about 167 billion doar but that's
00:15:05
not important what is important here is
00:15:07
something called tdv true diluted value
00:15:09
this represents the dilution from now
00:15:11
until the last part of 2025 AK the
00:15:14
latest will likely end up having to sell
00:15:16
listen to what Alex Becka had to say
00:15:17
here about alivium but if I go and point
00:15:19
out alivium to you you can see that
00:15:21
really didn't hold it back last run you
00:15:23
can see it it did crazy returns and even
00:15:26
though it had a crazy fully diluted
00:15:28
value you he said it himself so how can
00:15:30
a coin like alivium over here H go from
00:15:33
like back down here 11% unlocked which
00:15:36
means the fdv would have been insane it
00:15:39
would have been 10 times larger like Ono
00:15:41
is so if the market cap was 100 million
00:15:43
the fdv would have been 1 billion so a
00:15:45
huge increase and yet it still did crazy
00:15:47
gains it actually did a 50x how is this
00:15:50
possible again it's because fdv itself
00:15:53
does not matter because we're not
00:15:55
selling when all the tokens are in
00:15:57
circulation we are in you know within 12
00:16:00
months basically so why are we looking
00:16:02
over here we should be looking over here
00:16:04
at the latest right example here is also
00:16:06
virtual bacon as well he spoke about Neo
00:16:08
protocol and how great the fdv is on Neo
00:16:10
protocol and look at this toomics as
00:16:12
well out of the fully valud the market
00:16:14
cap of 4.4 billion 94% of that is
00:16:18
circulating at 4.1 million circulating
00:16:21
market cap really good tokenomics across
00:16:23
the board now again that's not actually
00:16:24
good why are we trying to say that it's
00:16:27
actually a good thing to have all the
00:16:28
tokens in in circulation when that means
00:16:30
that investors right have all of their
00:16:33
tokens to dump they have no incentive to
00:16:36
not want to dump the token unlocks
00:16:38
themselves fdv itself gives you this
00:16:40
interpretation that if there's a lot of
00:16:42
tokens that comeing to circulation over
00:16:45
the course of time that there's going to
00:16:46
be a lot of sell pressure guys we're not
00:16:49
selling in 2030 we're selling in the
00:16:52
next 12 months so again it does not
00:16:54
matter fdv is a load of nonsense it
00:16:57
actually honestly is probably a worse
00:17:00
thing for tokens cryptocurrencies to
00:17:02
have all of their tokens unlocked than
00:17:04
it is for something like Ono again a
00:17:07
really good score here on both of the
00:17:09
investor warning score and the third
00:17:10
party warning score as well as pith who
00:17:13
again both of these coins have very
00:17:14
simly bad ftvs how are they ranking way
00:17:18
better than a coin like near protocol by
00:17:21
the way or injective that have all their
00:17:23
tokens in circulation it's because not
00:17:25
all the investors have all of their
00:17:27
money it's as simple as that so
00:17:29
again going back to the Alex Becka thing
00:17:31
I said a second ago with alium Okay the
00:17:33
reason why it had a horrible fdv and
00:17:36
still performed well is because at that
00:17:38
time all the tokens weren't in
00:17:40
circulation okay FTV is a narrative
00:17:44
pushed by people pulled in from you know
00:17:46
traditional markets and it's gotten kind
00:17:48
of skewed over the course of time so I
00:17:50
know I've dumped a lot of information on
00:17:51
you guys and I kind of do apologize for
00:17:53
that but I hope you understand and look
00:17:56
if you do want to learn more on this
00:17:57
topic then let me know know Down Below
00:17:59
in the comments I will not make videos
00:18:01
on these topics and I will just pretend
00:18:03
like it doesn't matter on YouTube and
00:18:05
keep all this juicy stuff for the
00:18:06
private Community if you guys don't want
00:18:08
to know about it all right so with that
00:18:10
being said I'm saying this that love and
00:18:12
respect I once you all to make money
00:18:14
believe it or not um so thank you for
00:18:16
making it you know this far into the
00:18:17
video and if you did find yourself
00:18:19
enjoying it hit that like button and
00:18:20
subscribe more of this is on its way
00:18:22
talk to you soon bye-bye
