Syria, Israel, Ukraine - A New Decade of War

00:12:37
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=reSfF60-2S4

概要

TLDR十年前，我们提出了七个关于战争趋势的断言，如今这些断言中有些仍然有效，而另一些则被证实是不正确的。在21世纪，全球的确经历了较少的国家间战争，其中大多数发生在曾受殖民或苏联统治的地区。许多冲突国的边界依然未发生变化，民主国家之间仍未发生战争。然而，自2014年以来，暴力事件尤其是内战显著增多，新的国家间战争出现，如俄乌战争，打破了数十年的和平局面。特别是自2021年以来，战争死亡人数急剧上升，其中2022年的死亡人数甚至达到50万人，为1994年来的最高水平。全球化以及外部势力的干预使得国家间紧张局势加剧。虽然总体冲突趋势仍相对较小，但多极世界中的新联盟和力量争夺增加了未来战争爆发的可能性。最终，尽管我们仍生活在相对和平的时期，但未来的战争和冲突发展仍需密切观察。

収穫

  • 🌍 全球战争死亡人数上升，自2021年起显著增加。
  • 🗺️ 国际边界大多保持稳定，未受到挑战。
  • 🤝 民主国家之间仍没有发生战争。
  • ⚔️ 外部势力加强了冲突的延续，如中东和乌克兰。
  • 📈 多极世界中，新的联盟形成加剧了紧张局势。
  • 💔 内战仍然是最常见的国家间冲突形式。
  • ↔️ 尽管趋势上仍较为和平，但未来几年可能逆转。
  • 🚨 伊斯兰国等武装组织尽管被击败但仍未消失。
  • 📉 2014年前的乐观预测被后来发生的事件所动摇。
  • 🟥 乌克兰战争成为自二战以来规模最大的国家间冲突之一。

タイムライン

  • 00:00:00 - 00:05:00

    In 2014, it was believed that violent conflict was decreasing globally, indicative of a more peaceful world, based on seven claims, including reduced conflict deaths, no wars between countries, democracies at peace, and conflicts ending through diplomacy. This period of peace seemed to be supported by decelerating wars and civil conflicts witnessed in Afghanistan, Yemen, and Libya, while newer conflicts or unresolved past issues were expected to emerge, such as the Ethiopian civil war. Most ongoing conflicts were not between countries but were civil wars predominantly, in areas previously under colonial rule or dictatorships.

  • 00:05:00 - 00:12:37

    The last decade has seen an unprecedented rise in deaths from state-based conflicts, not witnessed since significant historical conflicts like the 90s Rwandan genocide. Despite these numbers projecting that violent wars, especially civil wars supported by external powers, are pervasive, autonomous global peace remains relatively intact. Democratic nations avoid armed conflicts against each other, international borders hold firm, and wars still largely exist in post-colonial regions. However, challenges to a settled world order have emerged, with multipolar power shifts and increasing military expenditures by rising economies like China, challenging the status quo led by traditional powers such as the USA. This multipolarity is igniting tensions, indicating that the previously forecast war cessation might not be sustainable.

マインドマップ

ビデオQ&A

  • 2022年因暴力冲突导致的死亡人数有多少？

    根据2022年的数据，战争造成的死亡人数上升至50万人，其中乌克兰战争和埃塞俄比亚的内战贡献了最多的死亡人数。

  • 目前全球有多少个未解决的国家冲突？

    目前全球有近60个未解决的国家冲突，许多已经持续数十年，死亡人数相对较低。

  • 全球战争的整体趋势是上升还是下降？

    虽然战争的总体趋势在过去几十年中有所下降，但最近几年，即2021年和2022年，暴力事件激增，尤其是在乌克兰战争和埃塞俄比亚内战的推动下。

  • 大多数国际边界是否保持不变？

    是，虽然许多边界问题仍然存在，但国际边界大体上没有受到挑战。

  • 2014年关于国家间战争的预测是否正确？

    我们的预测是错误的，因为国家间战争再次发生，包括乌克兰和俄罗斯之间的战争。

  • 民主国家之间是否发生过战争？

    是的，民主国家之间似乎不容易发生战争，在过去的世纪中仍然没有国家间的战争。

  • 当前的武装冲突集中在哪些地区？

    大多数武装冲突仍在曾受殖民或苏联统治的国家发生，反映了历史遗留问题的持续影响。

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  • 00:00:00
    10 years ago in 2014 we asked if war was
  • 00:00:03
    over based on long-term trends in the
  • 00:00:06
    last century it seemed violent conflict
  • 00:00:08
    was on the decline and the world more
  • 00:00:11
    peaceful than ever our video began with
  • 00:00:13
    the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the
  • 00:00:16
    war between Hamas and Israel and well a
  • 00:00:19
    decade later we could start this video
  • 00:00:21
    exactly the same way but is the world as
  • 00:00:24
    a whole more violent today in a nutshell
  • 00:00:28
    we made Seven claims in 201
  • 00:00:30
    14 one we have less conflict deaths than
  • 00:00:34
    ever two there were almost no more Wars
  • 00:00:37
    between countries three democracies
  • 00:00:40
    don't fight each other four borders are
  • 00:00:43
    mostly fixed five most conflicts are in
  • 00:00:46
    areas that were under foreign control
  • 00:00:48
    either by colonial states or Soviet
  • 00:00:51
    dictatorships six more Civil Wars are
  • 00:00:53
    Ending by diplomacy seven we're in the
  • 00:00:56
    most peaceful period of History so let's
  • 00:01:00
    see how our video has held up first
  • 00:01:03
    let's get an overview of conflicts in
  • 00:01:04
    the last decade some of the deadliest
  • 00:01:07
    conflicts that were glowing hot in 2014
  • 00:01:09
    have since ended or significantly cooled
  • 00:01:12
    down the war in Afghanistan ended with
  • 00:01:15
    the victory of the
  • 00:01:16
    Taliban while the Civil Wars in Yemen
  • 00:01:19
    and Libya are all still ongoing they
  • 00:01:21
    turned mostly into stalemates the Proto
  • 00:01:24
    state of Isis in Iraq and Syria has been
  • 00:01:26
    wiped out and breaking news the rebels
  • 00:01:29
    just won the war in Syria last week the
  • 00:01:32
    extremely destructive Civil War in South
  • 00:01:34
    Sudan ended in a fragile peace agreement
  • 00:01:37
    despite violence still flaring up in the
  • 00:01:39
    devastated Young country sadly the last
  • 00:01:42
    decade saw a bunch of new conflicts
  • 00:01:44
    arout or old unresolved issues turn
  • 00:01:47
    violent one of the main claims of our
  • 00:01:50
    video 10 years ago was that Wars today
  • 00:01:53
    are not between countries and this is
  • 00:01:55
    still largely true Civil Wars are by far
  • 00:01:59
    the most common type of state-based
  • 00:02:00
    conflict in the world we' wager that
  • 00:02:03
    most of you have never heard about one
  • 00:02:04
    of the deadliest civil wars in decad the
  • 00:02:07
    2020 T war in Ethiopia it ended in 2022
  • 00:02:11
    with the victory of the Ethiopian and
  • 00:02:13
    Eritrean government forces against Rebel
  • 00:02:15
    groups exact death tolls are unknown but
  • 00:02:19
    they may exceed half a million mostly
  • 00:02:22
    civilians aside from t a number of new
  • 00:02:25
    Civil Wars have broken out since 2014
  • 00:02:28
    although new is a bit misleading since
  • 00:02:30
    the underlying issues were brooding at a
  • 00:02:32
    smaller scale for a long time the
  • 00:02:34
    deadliest have been the Sudan Civil War
  • 00:02:37
    the Civil War in Yemen and the Civil War
  • 00:02:39
    in Myanmar multiple nations in Africa
  • 00:02:42
    like Mari Nigeria Somalia bkin Faso and
  • 00:02:45
    mosambi are suffering from islamist
  • 00:02:48
    insurgencies that destabilize countries
  • 00:02:50
    and have cost tens of thousands of
  • 00:02:52
    Civilian lives lastly there are nearly
  • 00:02:55
    60 smaller unresolved state-based
  • 00:02:57
    conflicts around the world many going on
  • 00:02:59
    for decades that are smoldering but have
  • 00:03:01
    a relatively low death toll in
  • 00:03:03
    comparison maybe the worst news is that
  • 00:03:06
    we've been seeing Interstate Wars
  • 00:03:09
    again there was the shortlived 2020 war
  • 00:03:12
    between aaban and Armenia which redrew
  • 00:03:14
    contested borders then there's the
  • 00:03:17
    latest war between Israel and Hamas that
  • 00:03:19
    turned into a Regional
  • 00:03:22
    Crisis what is certainly the most
  • 00:03:24
    disturbing new development is the
  • 00:03:26
    fullscale invasion of Ukraine by Russia
  • 00:03:29
    it's the First large-scale Interstate
  • 00:03:31
    war in 20 years and the first war since
  • 00:03:34
    World War II where a major power is
  • 00:03:36
    trying to conquer territory and to
  • 00:03:38
    subjugate another state it followed an
  • 00:03:41
    8-year conflict that started with the
  • 00:03:43
    2014 Russian annexation of Crimea and
  • 00:03:45
    the war in the dbass exact casualty
  • 00:03:48
    rates for the war since 2022 are hard to
  • 00:03:51
    verify but they go as high as hundreds
  • 00:03:53
    of
  • 00:03:54
    thousands okay so what about our 2014
  • 00:03:58
    claims if we add up the numbers we see a
  • 00:04:00
    few things roughly between 2004 and 2014
  • 00:04:05
    there were about 350,000 deaths from
  • 00:04:08
    state-based conflicts worldwide they
  • 00:04:10
    were going down from 2014 to 2019 and
  • 00:04:13
    then Rose sharply in 2021 in total from
  • 00:04:16
    2014 to 2024 we saw about 1.2 million
  • 00:04:20
    deaths if we include all violent
  • 00:04:23
    conflicts like the Mexican drug war the
  • 00:04:25
    number Rises to 1.5 million three times
  • 00:04:28
    higher than the previous decade
  • 00:04:30
    actually 2022 had the highest death toll
  • 00:04:33
    from violent conflict since the Rwandan
  • 00:04:35
    genocide in
  • 00:04:37
    1994 the T War and the war in Ukraine
  • 00:04:40
    alone were responsible for the majority
  • 00:04:42
    of lives lost as both Wars involved
  • 00:04:45
    armies of hundreds of thousands of
  • 00:04:46
    soldiers sometimes thrown against
  • 00:04:48
    entrenched positions in human wave
  • 00:04:51
    attacks so the last 3 years have been
  • 00:04:54
    unusually violent but if we zoom out a
  • 00:04:56
    bit more we can put those numbers into
  • 00:04:58
    perspective a terrible thing but nowhere
  • 00:05:01
    near how bad it can get when the world
  • 00:05:03
    goes to war in the grand scheme of
  • 00:05:06
    things we are still living in relatively
  • 00:05:08
    peaceful times but the next decade will
  • 00:05:11
    show if the trend will reverse or if the
  • 00:05:13
    last few years were an anomaly
  • 00:05:16
    unfortunately there have been proper
  • 00:05:18
    Wars between states again so our
  • 00:05:20
    prediction on Wars between countries
  • 00:05:22
    didn't hold up what is as true today as
  • 00:05:25
    in 2014 is that almost all armed
  • 00:05:27
    conflicts in the world are in countries
  • 00:05:29
    that were under foreign occupation in
  • 00:05:31
    the 20th century either by colonialism
  • 00:05:34
    or by the expansive Soviet dictatorship
  • 00:05:37
    ethnic groups were split apart or forced
  • 00:05:39
    together by arbitrary borders resources
  • 00:05:41
    unequally distributed or power vacuums
  • 00:05:43
    created which led to conflicts that are
  • 00:05:45
    in many cases still
  • 00:05:47
    unresolved there have also been no Wars
  • 00:05:50
    between democracies who seem uniquely
  • 00:05:53
    unwilling to fight each other so
  • 00:05:55
    compared to the last century it's still
  • 00:05:57
    true that war between nations is still
  • 00:05:59
    an exception rather than the rule on the
  • 00:06:02
    other hand we see fewer Civil Wars End
  • 00:06:05
    by diplomacy instead there's an increase
  • 00:06:08
    in either victories or
  • 00:06:09
    stalemates these often aren't permanent
  • 00:06:12
    resolutions to the conflict only pauses
  • 00:06:14
    in the fighting because the underlying
  • 00:06:16
    causes haven't been solved for our Claim
  • 00:06:19
    about borders we can see that most
  • 00:06:21
    International borders in the world still
  • 00:06:23
    hold up and are not challenged but there
  • 00:06:25
    are still a few dozen territorial
  • 00:06:27
    disputes in the world most of them in
  • 00:06:29
    Africa and Asia and some are getting
  • 00:06:31
    hotter like the Border clash between
  • 00:06:33
    India and China over axai chin and
  • 00:06:36
    aronal Pradesh China's claimed to Taiwan
  • 00:06:39
    or Venezuela threatening to Annex part
  • 00:06:41
    of guana's all rich Province
  • 00:06:44
    esao one thing that makes Wars so deadly
  • 00:06:47
    is that they're often supported by
  • 00:06:49
    external Powers many countries are
  • 00:06:51
    providing support or arming up different
  • 00:06:54
    sides or factions like the competition
  • 00:06:56
    between Saudi Arabia and Iran for
  • 00:06:58
    hegemony with Iran being the main
  • 00:07:00
    supporter for the houis Hezbollah or
  • 00:07:03
    Hamas or in the Ukrainian war with the
  • 00:07:05
    West supporting Ukraine while China Iran
  • 00:07:08
    and North Korea support Russia but it's
  • 00:07:10
    not just countries external Powers
  • 00:07:13
    keeping conflicts alive can also be
  • 00:07:15
    islamist groups like Isis or criminal
  • 00:07:17
    networks or even local Elites that
  • 00:07:20
    benefit from their own country being
  • 00:07:22
    torn apart and effectively prevent
  • 00:07:24
    conflicts from ending the end of the
  • 00:07:27
    rules-based
  • 00:07:28
    world the there's a lot of debate among
  • 00:07:30
    experts about what factors make the
  • 00:07:32
    world more or less peaceful but there
  • 00:07:34
    are no easy answers one of the major
  • 00:07:37
    reasons the world has seen less conflict
  • 00:07:39
    was that after the end of the Cold War
  • 00:07:41
    many countries expected a sort of
  • 00:07:42
    rules-based World Order and for a time
  • 00:07:45
    this worked somewhat but things have
  • 00:07:48
    been changing in the last few years the
  • 00:07:51
    world has become multi-polar with new
  • 00:07:53
    alliance is forming and the idea of a
  • 00:07:55
    rules-based world is being challenged
  • 00:07:58
    China's manufacture in capacity is now
  • 00:08:01
    as big as the US and Europe's combined
  • 00:08:04
    with its massive Economic Development a
  • 00:08:06
    new superpower has risen it's common
  • 00:08:10
    knowledge that the US spends more on its
  • 00:08:11
    military than any place in the world but
  • 00:08:14
    this may no longer reflect the true
  • 00:08:16
    balance of power China doesn't report
  • 00:08:18
    all of its military spending like the US
  • 00:08:20
    does and it gets a lot more done with
  • 00:08:22
    each equivalent dollar spent recent
  • 00:08:25
    estimates trying to account for these
  • 00:08:26
    differences tell us China's effective
  • 00:08:28
    military budget is now a significant
  • 00:08:31
    portion of the United States's budget
  • 00:08:33
    and with Russia breaking the taboo of
  • 00:08:35
    launching the first war of conquest by a
  • 00:08:37
    major power in almost 80 years Europe
  • 00:08:40
    has begun the process of rearming it is
  • 00:08:42
    slow because well Europe is slow but it
  • 00:08:46
    is happening we're in the transition to
  • 00:08:48
    a multi-polar world again with different
  • 00:08:50
    nations and alliances claiming spheres
  • 00:08:52
    of power they want to dominate in this
  • 00:08:55
    climate tensions and conflicts between
  • 00:08:57
    states have been rising even if most of
  • 00:09:00
    them have not turned into Wars yet so is
  • 00:09:03
    war over the clear answer is no and the
  • 00:09:07
    direction we're headed in doesn't seem
  • 00:09:09
    great but with all the Gloom it's also
  • 00:09:12
    true that we are still in a peaceful
  • 00:09:14
    period of world history and the deaths
  • 00:09:16
    by War are still at historic lows the
  • 00:09:20
    world is at a Crossroads we'll do
  • 00:09:22
    another update video in
  • 00:09:24
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  • 00:09:26
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  • 00:09:30
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  • 00:09:33
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  • 00:09:39
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タグ
  • 战争趋势
  • 武装冲突
  • 国家间战争
  • 内战
  • 殖民遗产
  • 全球和平
  • 民主国家
  • 边界争议
  • 多极世界
  • 外部干涉