Onramp Webinar Series E001: Bitcoin’s Full Potential Valuation

01:07:20
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=meuEAlixBMA

概要

TLDRThis webinar, hosted by Onramp Media, discusses the dynamics and valuation potential of Bitcoin, highlighting its unique characteristics as a digital, scarce commodity. The discussion is led by Jesse Meers, Brian Cabis, and Mark Connor. They delve into the implications of Bitcoin's reducing supply (the result of its inherent scarcity), and its positioning as a superior store of value compared to traditional assets like gold and real estate. The presentation emphasizes that Bitcoin, unlike traditional commodities, features an increasing scarcity due to its controlled supply mechanism, which could lead to a significant increase in valuation. The discussion also includes the benefits of utilizing multi-institution custody solutions to securely store Bitcoin over long-term horizons, minimizing risks associated with single points of failure. Speakers also explore the broader economic factors making Bitcoin an attractive investment, particularly in the context of growing inflation and government debt, which challenge the value of fiat currencies. The potential approval of Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) is seen as a significant factor that could drive demand and adoption. Additionally, there is a critical discussion on how understanding Bitcoin's fundamental properties and market position can aid personal investment strategies. The webinar rounds off with questions from the audience, highlighting practical aspects of Bitcoin ownership and inheritance planning.

収穫

  • 📉 Bitcoin is viewed as a superior store of value due to its digital scarcity.
  • 💼 The webinar highlights secure Bitcoin holding via multi-institution custody solutions.
  • 🔍 The controlled supply of Bitcoin offers a unique investment proposition.
  • 📈 Potential ETF approval is expected to boost Bitcoin demand.
  • 🏦 Economic uncertainties enhance Bitcoin's attractiveness as an asset.
  • 🔑 Understanding Bitcoin's properties aids in informed investment decisions.
  • 🔗 Speakers emphasize Bitcoin's role amidst rising global inflation.
  • 📊 Bitcoin's valuation potential is compared to traditional assets like gold.
  • 🔥 Debates around traditional finance underline the need for alternative stores of value like Bitcoin.
  • 📧 The webinar encourages audience engagement to explore Bitcoin investment further.

タイムライン

  • 00:00:00 - 00:05:00

    The webinar, originally recorded in December, is hosted by Onramp Media, featuring co-founders Jesse Meers and Brian Cabis, along with Mark Connor from 3 IQ. The discussion, prompted by Bitcoin's recent halving, explores Bitcoin's supply dynamics and potential valuation. A key point emphasizes Onramp's belief in Bitcoin as a crucial 21st-century asset, with a focus on secure, multi-institution custody solutions providing peace of mind for long-term Bitcoin holding.

  • 00:05:00 - 00:10:00

    Brian Cabis (Onramp Head of Strategy and Research) introduces Jesse Meers (Onramp COO and co-founder) and Mark Connors (Head of Research at 3IQ) for the first session of the Onramp webinar series. This interactive forum aims to explore Bitcoin's investment potential, encourage audience participation through a Q&A, and discuss fundamental merits. Cam Stromy, Onramp's Head of Private Wealth, further elaborates on Onramp's focus on Bitcoin asset management and educational initiatives.

  • 00:10:00 - 00:15:00

    Onramp emphasizes the importance of understanding the nuances of Bitcoin custody in long-term investment, highlighting their multi-institution custody model which eliminates single points of failure. Historically, custody has been either through single institutions or self-custody, both with risks. Onramp offers a novel solution involving three institutions holding Bitcoin keys, ensuring security. This conversation sets the stage for discussing Bitcoin's full potential valuation in this session.

  • 00:15:00 - 00:20:00

    Jesse Meers outlines his report on Bitcoin's potential valuation, questioning how high its future value could reach. He approaches valuation using a management consulting mindset, comparing Bitcoin to assets like gold because of its scarcity and store of value properties. The report, available online, considers Bitcoin a perfected version of traditional assets. The session explores Bitcoin's market competition and potential to serve as a store of value amid inflation and global debt issues.

  • 00:20:00 - 00:25:00

    Bitcoin is positioned as a digital gold with unique scarce supply properties, rivaling traditional stores of value. The report compares Bitcoin's ability to retain value against inflation against assets like gold, emphasizing its digital nature and potential to outperform across different asset classes due to growing global adoption. Jesse argues that Bitcoin's scarcity and its digital evolution represent a pivotal technological advancement akin to the digitization of information by the internet.

  • 00:25:00 - 00:30:00

    Bitcoin's supply schedule is unique among commodities, possessing increasing scarcity as supply issuance decreases over time. Unlike traditional commodities, which have a price ceiling based on supply and demand, Bitcoin's diminishing supply allows its potential price ceiling to scale endlessly. This scarcity, coupled with its first-of-its-kind status as a digital commodity, allows Bitcoin to represent an unparalleled investment opportunity distinct from physical commodities.

  • 00:30:00 - 00:35:00

    Bitcoin's available supply will eventually reach 21 million, causing an asymptotic decrease in new supply issuance, which directly influences potential pricing. This unique economic situation provides Bitcoin with the potential to scale infinitely in terms of its maximum valuation. A corresponding analysis shows Bitcoin's 'unthinkable' potential to grow in value over time due to its scarcity. Jesse invites participants to download his report for an in-depth exploration of Bitcoin's market dynamics.

  • 00:35:00 - 00:40:00

    The webinar examines Bitcoin's place within the global asset landscape, measuring it against the total $900 trillion market valuation in various asset classes. Despite Bitcoin's current relatively small market cap, its unique value proposition as a store of value asset is explored regarding its potential to redirect asset allocations from other markets such as real estate and equities, attributed to its increasing scarcity.

  • 00:40:00 - 00:45:00

    Jesse's report offers a conservative estimate of Bitcoin capturing a significant portion of global value, suggesting a potential long-term valuation of $200 trillion, or about $10 million per Bitcoin in today's dollars. The report highlights the inherent value of Bitcoin as a 'perfect money' due to its scarcity, contrasting it with traditional assets facing inflation and diminishing purchasing power. Acknowledging potential criticism, Jesse encourages personal evaluation of Bitcoin's potential capture of global value.

  • 00:45:00 - 00:50:00

    Bitcoin's appeal is discussed in terms of its predictable supply and increasing scarcity, leading to potential high returns compared to traditional investment assets like bonds. The conversation shifts to the potential institutional adoption of Bitcoin due to ETF approvals, which would increase demand. Jesse and Brian highlight that ETFs add a tailwind to Bitcoin's price and adoption by institutional investors globally.

  • 00:50:00 - 00:55:00

    The discussion highlights Bitcoin's resilience against inflation as its scarcity maintains value without future cash flows like other assets. This quality is emphasized as more investors, especially institutions, recognize Bitcoin's stable value proposition amidst decreasing confidence in fiat currencies. The speakers urge the current problematic financial system to explore Bitcoin for its attractive properties in asset value preservation and transferability compared to traditional assets, especially in high inflation.

  • 00:55:00 - 01:00:00

    Bitcoin's growing utility, including through innovations like the Lightning Network, adds to its demand, with potential uses beyond just being a financial asset. By offering a decentralized payments network and enabling stranded energy monetization, Bitcoin's multifaceted appeal can attract diverse industries. This growing demand, along with skepticism about traditional financial systems, supports Bitcoin's potential long-term value growth.

  • 01:00:00 - 01:07:20

    Future institutional acceptance, predicted to surge with ETF approvals, includes new players aligning with Bitcoin's system, set to transform traditional financing. Despite scepticism from existing financial infrastructures, Bitcoin's growing demand suggests a strong case for its adoption and valuation. The speakers advocate for knowledge dissemination to understand Bitcoin's unparalleled ability to secure value and encourage personal research and early engagement in Bitcoin investment.

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よくある質問

  • What is the main focus of the webinar?

    The webinar focuses on Bitcoin's supply dynamics, potential valuation, and its role as a store of value.

  • Who are the main speakers in the webinar?

    The main speakers are Jesse Myers, Brian Cabis, and Mark Connor.

  • How is Bitcoin's potential valuation discussed?

    Bitcoin's potential valuation is discussed through its increasing scarcity and ability to act as a store of value compared to other assets.

  • What unique property of Bitcoin is emphasized in the webinar?

    The webinar emphasizes Bitcoin's unique property of digital scarcity.

  • What solutions are highlighted for secure Bitcoin holding?

    Multi-institution custody solutions are highlighted for secure long-term holding of Bitcoin.

  • Why is Bitcoin considered a valuable asset for the future?

    Bitcoin is considered a valuable asset due to its digital scarcity and potential to maintain and grow value amidst high inflation and economic uncertainties.

  • What makes Bitcoin different from other commodities?

    Bitcoin is different because it has a fixed supply and reducing future issuance, leading to potentially unlimited price ceilings due to its digital nature.

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オートスクロール:
  • 00:00:00
    thank you for joining us this week we're
  • 00:00:01
    excited to bring you a webinar that was
  • 00:00:03
    recorded in December of last year now
  • 00:00:05
    available for public consumption this
  • 00:00:07
    webinar hosted by onramp media is led by
  • 00:00:10
    onramp co-founder Jesse Meers and onramp
  • 00:00:12
    chief strategy officer Brian cabis who
  • 00:00:14
    are joined by Mark Connor head of
  • 00:00:16
    research at 3 IQ in light of bitcoin's
  • 00:00:18
    most recent having we're inclined to
  • 00:00:20
    resurface this insightful discussion
  • 00:00:22
    which covers Bitcoin Supply Dynamics and
  • 00:00:24
    its full potential valuation before we
  • 00:00:26
    start a quick reminder that the on-ramp
  • 00:00:28
    webinar series is for information and
  • 00:00:30
    entertainment purposes only and nothing
  • 00:00:32
    should be construed as investment or
  • 00:00:34
    legal advice at onramp we believe that
  • 00:00:36
    Bitcoin will be the most important asset
  • 00:00:38
    to own in the 21st century our
  • 00:00:40
    multi-institution custody solution is
  • 00:00:42
    the safest and most secure way to ensure
  • 00:00:44
    that your Bitcoin remains in your and
  • 00:00:46
    your family's possession for decades to
  • 00:00:48
    come multi-institution custody maximizes
  • 00:00:51
    security and minimizes counterparty risk
  • 00:00:53
    leveraging bitcoin's native properties
  • 00:00:55
    to eliminate single points of failure
  • 00:00:57
    that have historically complicated
  • 00:00:58
    Bitcoin ownership onr provides peace of
  • 00:01:01
    mind for your Bitcoin Journey For more
  • 00:01:03
    information check us out at onr
  • 00:01:04
    bitcoin.com okay so with that out of the
  • 00:01:07
    way uh my name is Brian cabis I'm the
  • 00:01:10
    head of strategy and research here at
  • 00:01:12
    onramp uh I am joined by our co-founder
  • 00:01:15
    and coo Jess Meers uh and we're thrilled
  • 00:01:17
    to have a special guest with us here
  • 00:01:19
    today Mark Connors the head of research
  • 00:01:21
    at 3iq a digital asset management
  • 00:01:23
    company uh Mark has an extensive
  • 00:01:26
    background in the traditional Finance
  • 00:01:27
    space and uh has a weth of knowledge
  • 00:01:30
    about the global asset landscape the
  • 00:01:32
    macro environment and of course Bitcoin
  • 00:01:35
    uh so we're honored to have him join us
  • 00:01:37
    uh for the first uh session of the
  • 00:01:39
    on-ramp webinar series um and so the uh
  • 00:01:43
    the purpose and the intent of this
  • 00:01:45
    series uh is really to provide
  • 00:01:47
    individuals investors and allocators
  • 00:01:49
    with an interactive Forum to explore the
  • 00:01:52
    investment case for Bitcoin uh its
  • 00:01:54
    fundamental merits and really allow
  • 00:01:56
    folks to broaden their understanding of
  • 00:01:58
    this asset uh as such we we would love
  • 00:02:01
    to hear from the audience so please
  • 00:02:03
    submit any questions you may have in the
  • 00:02:05
    Q&A box throughout the presentation uh
  • 00:02:08
    and we will try to answer as many of
  • 00:02:09
    those as we can in the last 15 minutes
  • 00:02:12
    of the call um also note that this
  • 00:02:14
    presentation is being recorded um and uh
  • 00:02:18
    before we jump into the discussion I
  • 00:02:20
    also wanted to introduce cam stromy
  • 00:02:22
    onramps head of private wealth uh to
  • 00:02:24
    speak a bit about onramp for those who
  • 00:02:26
    may not be familiar with our business
  • 00:02:28
    cam
  • 00:02:30
    thanks Brian so for anyone who's newer
  • 00:02:33
    to onramp we are a Bitcoin Asset
  • 00:02:35
    Management platform and built on
  • 00:02:37
    multi-institution custody so a little
  • 00:02:40
    bit about us and why we've developed
  • 00:02:42
    this you can think about our firm in a
  • 00:02:45
    few different parts the first part being
  • 00:02:47
    education first and foremost we've been
  • 00:02:48
    Educators personally but then also
  • 00:02:50
    professionally as a team for half a
  • 00:02:53
    decade now or more in this space um and
  • 00:02:55
    view that is critically important so
  • 00:02:56
    appreciate your attendance here at the
  • 00:02:58
    webinar as one facet of how we help
  • 00:03:01
    folks to understand Bitcoin at a
  • 00:03:02
    fundamental level and then at its
  • 00:03:05
    highest level as well we're focused on
  • 00:03:06
    helping investors family offices
  • 00:03:10
    institutions pensions instit and
  • 00:03:12
    corporations to buy and hold the asset
  • 00:03:15
    for the long term so then how do you
  • 00:03:18
    hold the asset for the long term uh as
  • 00:03:20
    many of you may already know there's a
  • 00:03:22
    custody element to allocating to this
  • 00:03:24
    asset class which is not something that
  • 00:03:26
    we're used to as investors looking
  • 00:03:28
    across the landscape
  • 00:03:30
    there's a lot of nuance in custody um
  • 00:03:32
    Michael and I have professionally
  • 00:03:34
    dedicated over half a decade to
  • 00:03:37
    understanding custody at its deepest
  • 00:03:38
    level talking with thousands of clients
  • 00:03:40
    helping onboard billions of dollars into
  • 00:03:42
    Bitcoin and helping investors to
  • 00:03:45
    navigate that custody landscape and
  • 00:03:47
    understanding what custy Solutions are
  • 00:03:49
    are best for them historically they have
  • 00:03:53
    had we've only had two options for
  • 00:03:54
    custody it's either been you trust a
  • 00:03:56
    single institution to hold your funds
  • 00:03:59
    that historically has had a number of
  • 00:04:01
    pitfalls FTX being the most recent and
  • 00:04:04
    prominent example the other fork in that
  • 00:04:06
    road was self- custody investors had to
  • 00:04:10
    dig in and learn how to hold
  • 00:04:11
    cryptographic material U with a 100%
  • 00:04:14
    downside risk if those keys were
  • 00:04:16
    mismanaged or lost so on provided a
  • 00:04:19
    third option that has never existed
  • 00:04:22
    before at the custodial level where
  • 00:04:24
    three institutions onramp bitgo and coin
  • 00:04:27
    cover each hold one key and it
  • 00:04:30
    eliminates single points of failure
  • 00:04:32
    meaning that even if one firm fails for
  • 00:04:34
    the first time ever a client's Bitcoin
  • 00:04:36
    is absolutely safe so that's what we do
  • 00:04:39
    at a high level we'd love to chat with
  • 00:04:41
    you individually uh after this webinar
  • 00:04:43
    so feel free to go to our website
  • 00:04:46
    schedule a call and I personally would
  • 00:04:47
    love to talk with you thanks cam uh so
  • 00:04:52
    just a bit about uh what we're going to
  • 00:04:53
    be talking about today so this first
  • 00:04:55
    session's topic of discussion is
  • 00:04:57
    bitcoin's full potential valuation
  • 00:05:00
    uh Jesse Myers published a report on
  • 00:05:02
    this topic about a month or so ago uh
  • 00:05:04
    and we really wanted to take the
  • 00:05:05
    opportunity to dive deep on his analysis
  • 00:05:09
    uh and broadly discuss discuss different
  • 00:05:11
    valuation Frameworks uh for Bitcoin um
  • 00:05:14
    while the sort of high level thesis for
  • 00:05:15
    Bitcoin I would argue is sort of
  • 00:05:17
    increasingly well understood it can be
  • 00:05:20
    difficult to grasp sort of the magnitude
  • 00:05:22
    of the opportunity so uh we're also
  • 00:05:24
    going to touch on some key catalysts for
  • 00:05:26
    Bitcoin and and how those may impact its
  • 00:05:28
    trajectory moving forward
  • 00:05:30
    um so without further Ado I'm going to
  • 00:05:32
    kick it to Jesse to be begin with an
  • 00:05:34
    overview of his report and then we'll
  • 00:05:36
    dive into more of an open discussion on
  • 00:05:38
    the aforementioned topics Jesse great
  • 00:05:41
    thank you Brian and and thanks cam for
  • 00:05:43
    that intro to On wrap um yeah so we're
  • 00:05:47
    going to get into it now the the meat of
  • 00:05:49
    it here of um what is bitcoin's full
  • 00:05:52
    potential
  • 00:05:53
    valuation uh and you know the the spirit
  • 00:05:57
    of this sort of exercise is is you know
  • 00:05:59
    it's the the problem that we all face
  • 00:06:01
    when we um consider Bitcoin as an
  • 00:06:04
    investment um you know there's there's
  • 00:06:06
    the spot price of Bitcoin today that's
  • 00:06:08
    what it's trading at but obviously for
  • 00:06:11
    anyone who's considering an investment
  • 00:06:13
    you're only going to invest if you think
  • 00:06:14
    that the future value of it is higher
  • 00:06:16
    than what it is today um but that
  • 00:06:19
    requires having a perspective about
  • 00:06:22
    where this thing could go and why and
  • 00:06:25
    and specifically how high it could go so
  • 00:06:28
    what is the full potential
  • 00:06:30
    for bitcoin's valuation well it's kind
  • 00:06:33
    of an impossible question right
  • 00:06:35
    impossible to know um and people
  • 00:06:38
    approach this in different ways of you
  • 00:06:40
    know how to Value Bitcoin um and where
  • 00:06:43
    is it going and that'll be a big part of
  • 00:06:45
    the conversation that Brian and and Mark
  • 00:06:47
    and I have after we go through this
  • 00:06:49
    report here but my effort was really
  • 00:06:52
    kind of bringing my um management
  • 00:06:55
    consulting uh toolkit to how do you
  • 00:06:59
    triangulate a a decent answer um based
  • 00:07:03
    on a variety of estimates and and a
  • 00:07:05
    methodology for for what's possible here
  • 00:07:08
    so if we scroll scroll down into this
  • 00:07:10
    report here
  • 00:07:12
    um you know the uh the starting point uh
  • 00:07:16
    for and and I should mention that this
  • 00:07:19
    report is available uh on our website um
  • 00:07:22
    and for anyone to download and uh we'll
  • 00:07:25
    we'll make the um link to download it uh
  • 00:07:28
    available in in the chat um and we can
  • 00:07:30
    also follow up with that as
  • 00:07:32
    well so the first
  • 00:07:34
    question is um you know what is what is
  • 00:07:37
    bitcoin what is this asset what Market
  • 00:07:39
    is it competing in what assets is it
  • 00:07:41
    competing against uh and and the reality
  • 00:07:44
    is this is a store of value Asset this
  • 00:07:46
    is digital gold um it has the properties
  • 00:07:49
    of gold but digitized and in in many
  • 00:07:54
    ways improved upon uh nearly perfected
  • 00:07:57
    gold um and what gold really is is a
  • 00:08:00
    store of value Asset it's it it has
  • 00:08:03
    value because it uh there's not much
  • 00:08:06
    additional gold being created every year
  • 00:08:09
    and as a result of that um you don't
  • 00:08:12
    have much Supply dilution of the value
  • 00:08:14
    that you store today uh and so value
  • 00:08:17
    that you put into gold today propagates
  • 00:08:19
    through time relatively effectively and
  • 00:08:22
    that's a store of value Asset um and so
  • 00:08:25
    Bitcoin is is a store of value Asset
  • 00:08:28
    it's it has many of properties that in
  • 00:08:31
    fact takes it to an even um more
  • 00:08:34
    perfected version of it and that is
  • 00:08:37
    really the way to think about Bitcoin as
  • 00:08:39
    an asset is a store of value that if you
  • 00:08:42
    put value into Bitcoin today it can
  • 00:08:45
    propagate into the future uh without
  • 00:08:48
    much dilution and and that is a very
  • 00:08:50
    attractive thing especially in a climate
  • 00:08:53
    like today where we are dealing with
  • 00:08:54
    inflation um $34 trillion of of national
  • 00:09:00
    debt in the US uh sovereign debt crisis
  • 00:09:03
    all over the world and the potential
  • 00:09:06
    that you know we may see a high level of
  • 00:09:09
    of um inflation going forward as a
  • 00:09:11
    result of um Sovereign Nations needing
  • 00:09:14
    to service their debt and print money to
  • 00:09:16
    do that so bit that's that's the the
  • 00:09:19
    nature of where Bitcoin fits in if we
  • 00:09:20
    scroll down a little
  • 00:09:22
    more to the next
  • 00:09:25
    page uh and you know this is a a way to
  • 00:09:28
    conceptualize
  • 00:09:30
    how do you how does Bitcoin stack up
  • 00:09:32
    against other types of assets right
  • 00:09:34
    because every every asset has its own
  • 00:09:36
    properties um and not all assets are are
  • 00:09:38
    made the same um obviously you consume
  • 00:09:41
    some things uh and some things
  • 00:09:44
    depreciate um and then there's
  • 00:09:46
    Investments that grow in value over time
  • 00:09:48
    but they they don't they're not all the
  • 00:09:50
    same um a investment in in land uh is
  • 00:09:56
    going to be a fairly stable investment
  • 00:09:59
    that appreciate over time but it's not
  • 00:10:01
    generating necessarily generating cash
  • 00:10:04
    flows the way that equities might be and
  • 00:10:07
    that like a investment in like a a tech
  • 00:10:10
    company um might outperform that land
  • 00:10:14
    but here's Bitcoin uh which in my
  • 00:10:17
    opinion has properties that allow it to
  • 00:10:21
    outperform um any of these investment
  • 00:10:23
    assets the various options in the
  • 00:10:25
    investment landscape and that's what
  • 00:10:27
    we've seen over the last 15 years of bit
  • 00:10:29
    coin's emergence as an asset from from
  • 00:10:32
    nothing from from an from a a toy with
  • 00:10:35
    zero value uh to today where it's an
  • 00:10:38
    $800 billion
  • 00:10:40
    asset and um still still very early in
  • 00:10:45
    its um Global adoption but you know
  • 00:10:48
    people L on to the volatility along the
  • 00:10:50
    way if you were to smooth out that
  • 00:10:52
    volatility um and and represented on a
  • 00:10:56
    logarithmic scale like this it's
  • 00:10:58
    something like a straight up to the
  • 00:10:59
    right um approach and so in my view um
  • 00:11:04
    and and over bitcoin's 15year history it
  • 00:11:07
    does
  • 00:11:08
    outperform any other investment asset
  • 00:11:10
    because of these specifically because of
  • 00:11:11
    these properties of its um increasing
  • 00:11:14
    scarcity and the fact that it's early
  • 00:11:16
    stage in its Global adoption okay next
  • 00:11:19
    uh
  • 00:11:22
    section so um the next part of this
  • 00:11:25
    piece of this puzzle is to think
  • 00:11:27
    about what is the ceiling for various
  • 00:11:30
    assets uh what sets the ceiling um and
  • 00:11:34
    when it comes to Commodities Bitcoin is
  • 00:11:37
    a
  • 00:11:38
    commodity typically what sets the
  • 00:11:40
    ceiling is the amount of new Supply
  • 00:11:43
    creation every year that has to go out
  • 00:11:45
    into the market and be absorbed by the
  • 00:11:47
    market so you know if if gold is
  • 00:11:51
    a uh is A1 trillion doll
  • 00:11:55
    asset and 2% more of it is made every
  • 00:11:58
    year um well that's $240 billion do of
  • 00:12:02
    of gold that's created every single year
  • 00:12:05
    that has to go out into the market and
  • 00:12:07
    be absorbed uh by demand and just for
  • 00:12:10
    the price of gold to go sideways and so
  • 00:12:13
    if gold was to suddenly 10x in value um
  • 00:12:18
    well now that that's not $240 billion of
  • 00:12:22
    new Supply creation every year that's
  • 00:12:24
    $2.4 trillion doll of Supply creation
  • 00:12:27
    every year and there's just not enough
  • 00:12:29
    demand for that so that amount of uh new
  • 00:12:34
    Supply coming onto the market would
  • 00:12:35
    suppress the price Drive the price back
  • 00:12:37
    down back to this equilibrium that gold
  • 00:12:40
    has established over time and that
  • 00:12:43
    equilibrium nature of how Commodities
  • 00:12:45
    end up um finding their price ceiling
  • 00:12:49
    based on the amount of Supply being
  • 00:12:50
    created every year versus the existing
  • 00:12:52
    demand for that asset in general that's
  • 00:12:55
    how these That's How Commodities end up
  • 00:12:57
    setting their ceilings and so that's an
  • 00:13:00
    important piece to introduce because
  • 00:13:03
    Bitcoin is different so next section
  • 00:13:07
    here so um in the world of Commodities
  • 00:13:11
    Bitcoin is different it's the first
  • 00:13:12
    digital commodity um and it's the
  • 00:13:16
    invention of digital scarcity and that
  • 00:13:19
    is a one-time phenomenon because you can
  • 00:13:21
    have copies of digital scarcity that
  • 00:13:23
    aren't themselves scarce because it's
  • 00:13:26
    always possible to have an incremental
  • 00:13:27
    copy of a system of digital scarcity but
  • 00:13:30
    there's the original instance of digital
  • 00:13:33
    scarcity and it's
  • 00:13:34
    Bitcoin um and and so this is a part of
  • 00:13:37
    the you know the if you scroll down a
  • 00:13:40
    little bit here the the um internet
  • 00:13:41
    Revolution here digital Revolution which
  • 00:13:44
    is really two pieces we we've lived
  • 00:13:46
    through the digitization of information
  • 00:13:49
    which is the the Internet it's how we
  • 00:13:52
    went from a a world of analog
  • 00:13:53
    information to a digital world of
  • 00:13:56
    information um but you couldn't put
  • 00:14:00
    value onto the internet because it was
  • 00:14:02
    always possible to copy and paste uh and
  • 00:14:04
    and that doesn't work for Value you
  • 00:14:06
    can't um have that um and so Bitcoin is
  • 00:14:11
    this invention of a a system of digital
  • 00:14:13
    scarcity that allows for the
  • 00:14:15
    digitization of value this complimentary
  • 00:14:18
    digitization of value to the
  • 00:14:20
    digitization of information that I
  • 00:14:23
    believe we will end up looking back on
  • 00:14:25
    as the second internet so we I think are
  • 00:14:28
    in the early 90s for the internet of
  • 00:14:33
    value uh if you scroll down to the next
  • 00:14:37
    page um and the the important thing here
  • 00:14:40
    to link this back to the topic of what
  • 00:14:42
    sets the ceiling for commodities for
  • 00:14:44
    commodity valuations is that Bitcoin has
  • 00:14:47
    these this very unique attribute in the
  • 00:14:51
    commodity landscape which is its
  • 00:14:53
    increasing scarcity so you see this this
  • 00:14:55
    chart on the page here is the supply
  • 00:14:58
    schedule for Bitcoin um the ASM totic
  • 00:15:02
    curve up and to the right is how much
  • 00:15:05
    Bitcoin exists and you can see that flat
  • 00:15:08
    line at the top there that's the total
  • 00:15:10
    that will ever exist there will only
  • 00:15:11
    ever be 21 million Bitcoin the orange
  • 00:15:14
    bars are the amount of Bitcoin being
  • 00:15:16
    released
  • 00:15:18
    every every 10 minutes um across these
  • 00:15:22
    fouryear periods and you can see that
  • 00:15:25
    that amount gets cut in half every four
  • 00:15:27
    years the result of this is is is
  • 00:15:30
    increasing scarcity so you every four
  • 00:15:33
    years the amount of new Supply issuance
  • 00:15:35
    of Bitcoin gets cut in half and that
  • 00:15:38
    ties directly back to the conversation
  • 00:15:40
    about what's its commodity um price
  • 00:15:43
    ceilings because bitcoin's um Supply
  • 00:15:46
    issuance goes to zero over time it keeps
  • 00:15:49
    dropping ASM totically to zero and that
  • 00:15:53
    means that this the market has to absorb
  • 00:15:55
    less and less new Supply and that allows
  • 00:15:58
    for a potential sealing price of Bitcoin
  • 00:16:02
    to scale
  • 00:16:04
    endlessly and that's different from any
  • 00:16:06
    other commodity ever in the history of
  • 00:16:08
    investable assets because that was never
  • 00:16:10
    possible in the physical world it's only
  • 00:16:12
    possible in the digital world and and
  • 00:16:15
    this is the one and only instance of
  • 00:16:17
    digital scarcity so it's only really
  • 00:16:19
    possible with Bitcoin okay so if we we
  • 00:16:22
    then put these pieces together the next
  • 00:16:24
    section
  • 00:16:29
    yes and so that the Bitcoin has an
  • 00:16:32
    unthinkable property it gets more
  • 00:16:34
    valuable over time because of this
  • 00:16:35
    reducing issuance this increasing
  • 00:16:37
    scarcity so let's uh go to the next
  • 00:16:40
    section
  • 00:16:43
    then okay and uh and now we need to take
  • 00:16:46
    stock of okay how much value is out
  • 00:16:48
    there um what is Bitcoin in the global
  • 00:16:51
    asset landscape as you can see on on
  • 00:16:54
    this this uh graphic it well it was 500
  • 00:16:57
    billion uh doar in value uh two months
  • 00:17:01
    ago when I made this graphic it it has
  • 00:17:04
    now grown to $800 billion do of value
  • 00:17:07
    but the the global asset landscape
  • 00:17:09
    hasn't hasn't shifted there's $900
  • 00:17:12
    trillion dollar of value out there in
  • 00:17:14
    these various store value buckets um
  • 00:17:17
    real estate bonds equities money itself
  • 00:17:21
    uh that's how much value is sitting in
  • 00:17:22
    these different types of assets and now
  • 00:17:24
    here is this tiny little thimble in this
  • 00:17:26
    ocean of value
  • 00:17:29
    that has these properties that we've
  • 00:17:30
    just talked about that make it more
  • 00:17:32
    attractive as a store of value Asset
  • 00:17:35
    than any of these other assets because
  • 00:17:37
    of its increasing scarcity specifically
  • 00:17:40
    so then we have to think about okay all
  • 00:17:42
    the value sitting in these different
  • 00:17:44
    buckets will some of the value in these
  • 00:17:46
    buckets want to reallocate to this more
  • 00:17:52
    attractive asset when they evaluate
  • 00:17:55
    these things um you know and take a
  • 00:17:58
    serious ious look at Bitcoin and so then
  • 00:18:01
    we can go to the next section and and um
  • 00:18:05
    come up with how we would do that scroll
  • 00:18:07
    down a little
  • 00:18:12
    further so if we were to take stock of
  • 00:18:15
    all those those uh buckets of value and
  • 00:18:19
    add up there the trillions of dollars in
  • 00:18:22
    each of those buckets and then think
  • 00:18:24
    about okay if I'm an investor who's
  • 00:18:27
    holding a lot of bonds for example and
  • 00:18:30
    what is what's a bond doing for me in my
  • 00:18:32
    portfolio it is promising a certain
  • 00:18:35
    nominal return uh you know 4% 5% return
  • 00:18:40
    into the future um which doesn't account
  • 00:18:44
    for inflation risk of of the units that
  • 00:18:46
    you're receiving dollars you know most
  • 00:18:50
    most commonly here um but that's the
  • 00:18:53
    that's the point of holding a bond is
  • 00:18:56
    that you are receiving some reliable
  • 00:18:59
    nominal return for parking your value in
  • 00:19:02
    that
  • 00:19:03
    asset but if Bitcoin has this increasing
  • 00:19:06
    scarcity function that reliably delivers
  • 00:19:10
    increasing value over time if you hold
  • 00:19:12
    the Bitcoin for four years or more then
  • 00:19:16
    that might serve you better than this
  • 00:19:20
    small nominal return of
  • 00:19:22
    dollars which is an asset that's that's
  • 00:19:24
    being debased over time with with
  • 00:19:26
    inflation and you know you by holding a
  • 00:19:28
    you may or may not actually receive a a
  • 00:19:31
    positive real yield uh so you might be
  • 00:19:35
    receiving a negative real yield just by
  • 00:19:37
    holding a bond or you could switch part
  • 00:19:39
    of that Bond portfolio into this asset
  • 00:19:42
    that delivers a guaranteed increasing
  • 00:19:44
    scarcity because of it Supply mechanics
  • 00:19:47
    and that increasing scarcity manifests
  • 00:19:50
    as uh increasing value over time how
  • 00:19:53
    much of that of your bond portfolio
  • 00:19:55
    might you you know want to reallocate to
  • 00:19:58
    bitco coin I don't know it's it's up for
  • 00:20:01
    anybody's um interpretation here in this
  • 00:20:04
    Bitcoin capture column I put forward my
  • 00:20:08
    conservative estimates of what I think
  • 00:20:11
    um holders of these different asset
  • 00:20:13
    classes how much of the value parked
  • 00:20:16
    there might want to over time reallocate
  • 00:20:21
    to this asset that I think has more
  • 00:20:23
    attractive properties than any of these
  • 00:20:25
    other store value assets in the physical
  • 00:20:26
    world
  • 00:20:29
    maybe it's 30% for bonds maybe it's 5%
  • 00:20:32
    for bonds maybe it's 90% for bonds it's
  • 00:20:35
    really up to uh everyone out there to
  • 00:20:38
    determine for themselves what they think
  • 00:20:41
    is possible here given the properties of
  • 00:20:43
    Bitcoin that we've talked through um
  • 00:20:47
    with these numbers with these
  • 00:20:48
    assumptions here which I think are
  • 00:20:50
    conservative and you know you can argue
  • 00:20:52
    with me on them and um and you can come
  • 00:20:55
    up with your own numbers and I encourage
  • 00:20:56
    people to do that you can take the same
  • 00:20:58
    table plug in your own numbers and then
  • 00:21:00
    see what that bottom right number spits
  • 00:21:02
    out in terms of the potential valuation
  • 00:21:04
    in your mind for Bitcoin using this
  • 00:21:07
    framework and if the if that value is is
  • 00:21:12
    greater than $40,000 per Bitcoin you are
  • 00:21:15
    you inherently believe that that Bitcoin
  • 00:21:18
    is underpriced today uh my numbers
  • 00:21:21
    resulted
  • 00:21:22
    in a crazy valuation something I'm you
  • 00:21:25
    know for some time was almost
  • 00:21:27
    embarrassed to share with people because
  • 00:21:29
    it sounds so absurd but this uh
  • 00:21:33
    methodology arrived at $200 trillion of
  • 00:21:35
    value for for Bitcoin in the long term
  • 00:21:39
    in today's dollars which is to say this
  • 00:21:41
    this this will take decades this could
  • 00:21:43
    be a 30-year Endeavor but um I believe
  • 00:21:47
    that Bitcoin can absorb 20 to 20 to 25%
  • 00:21:52
    of the world's store value assets uh
  • 00:21:56
    into what is currently a tiny little
  • 00:21:58
    symol in the uh in the ocean of of
  • 00:22:02
    global asset value um so that's my full
  • 00:22:05
    potential valuation for Bitcoin I think
  • 00:22:08
    that Bitcoin can can reach as high as10
  • 00:22:11
    million per Bitcoin in today's dollars
  • 00:22:15
    over the next several
  • 00:22:17
    decades so that's the this whole report
  • 00:22:20
    here if anyone's interested in in
  • 00:22:21
    downloading it um the link for it is in
  • 00:22:25
    the chat uh and you can also find it on
  • 00:22:27
    our website and so now I'd love to open
  • 00:22:30
    it up for for Mark and Brian to you know
  • 00:22:34
    Pro provide any thoughts they have on on
  • 00:22:36
    this approach and then we can talk about
  • 00:22:39
    other ways to Value Bitcoin and where
  • 00:22:42
    this asset is going long
  • 00:22:44
    term well Brian why don't you kick it
  • 00:22:46
    off because uh I know you you're there
  • 00:22:49
    working a bit with Jesse so you might
  • 00:22:51
    connect it to the of work yeah so you
  • 00:22:55
    know I would say at a high level I think
  • 00:22:57
    Jesse's analysis is incredibly useful
  • 00:22:59
    for for a number of reasons but you know
  • 00:23:02
    it it helps provide investors with the
  • 00:23:04
    context for bitcoin's potential you know
  • 00:23:06
    I think When approaching this asset it's
  • 00:23:09
    it's can be very difficult for investors
  • 00:23:11
    to grasp uh its real potential and the
  • 00:23:14
    reality is that you know investors and
  • 00:23:17
    and humans generally have never observed
  • 00:23:19
    an absolutely scarce asset go through a
  • 00:23:22
    monetization process like this so it can
  • 00:23:24
    be almost difficult to Fathom you know
  • 00:23:26
    what the ultimate price ceiling for for
  • 00:23:29
    this thing could be and so I would also
  • 00:23:31
    say that you know I historically have
  • 00:23:33
    personally struggled with specific price
  • 00:23:35
    predictions because I think you know
  • 00:23:37
    it's certainly more of an art than a
  • 00:23:38
    science and I think um you know Jesse's
  • 00:23:41
    analysis is is a fantastic effort to
  • 00:23:43
    sort of triangulate a a plausible
  • 00:23:45
    trajectory here um but for me personally
  • 00:23:48
    when I when I think about bitcoin's
  • 00:23:49
    valuation I really think of it as more
  • 00:23:52
    of a directional analysis so you know if
  • 00:23:55
    we distill bitcoin's price appreciation
  • 00:23:58
    down to its core levers uh some of which
  • 00:24:01
    Jesse uh walked through it's really all
  • 00:24:04
    about supply and demand and so we know
  • 00:24:07
    what the supply dist distribution is and
  • 00:24:09
    we know that there will only ever be 21
  • 00:24:11
    million Bitcoins so given that static
  • 00:24:14
    eventual Supply the the critical lever
  • 00:24:16
    to to Really assess is whether demand is
  • 00:24:19
    continuing to increase so you know all
  • 00:24:22
    else equal if demand continues to
  • 00:24:24
    increase bitcoin's price will continue
  • 00:24:26
    to increase and so for me I I tend to
  • 00:24:28
    focus on assessing really the drivers of
  • 00:24:31
    demand and and sort of um trying to
  • 00:24:34
    identify those key indicators uh that
  • 00:24:37
    demand is in fact increasing and so you
  • 00:24:39
    know that that would include metrics
  • 00:24:41
    like unique wallet creation uh
  • 00:24:43
    transaction activity hash rate growth um
  • 00:24:47
    and and so I think you know it's
  • 00:24:49
    important to recognize that Bitcoin uh
  • 00:24:52
    is more than just a financial instrument
  • 00:24:54
    or a digital commodity or a currency um
  • 00:24:57
    you know at at protocol level this is a
  • 00:25:00
    piece of technology that enables a
  • 00:25:03
    globally accessible permissionless
  • 00:25:05
    payments Network and so part of the
  • 00:25:07
    demand for the asset stems from the
  • 00:25:10
    expanding utility of the protocol itself
  • 00:25:12
    so I like to think and and sort of focus
  • 00:25:15
    on the development of second and third
  • 00:25:17
    layers like the lightning Network um
  • 00:25:19
    that are enabling activities not
  • 00:25:21
    possible on in come in payment rails um
  • 00:25:24
    so like I said you know a great example
  • 00:25:25
    of that is a lightning Network which uh
  • 00:25:28
    has a a lot of interesting implications
  • 00:25:29
    in sort of the realm of micro payments
  • 00:25:32
    um another example is is totally
  • 00:25:34
    separate from that in the realm of
  • 00:25:35
    Bitcoin mining you know the process of
  • 00:25:37
    Bitcoin mining effectively eliminates
  • 00:25:40
    the notion of stranded energy uh which
  • 00:25:43
    is pretty powerful you know humans are
  • 00:25:45
    now able to monetize sources of energy
  • 00:25:48
    in a location agnostic manner so from
  • 00:25:50
    that perspective you know Bitcoin has
  • 00:25:52
    these other forms of utility that are
  • 00:25:54
    outside of purely price appreciation so
  • 00:25:57
    you know natural gas producers out in
  • 00:25:59
    Texas that would otherwise be flaring
  • 00:26:01
    methane into the atmosphere they're now
  • 00:26:03
    able to capture that methane and
  • 00:26:05
    monetize it on site through through
  • 00:26:07
    Bitcoin mining and so I think you know
  • 00:26:08
    that's a one of many powerful Concepts
  • 00:26:11
    that I think you know most of the
  • 00:26:12
    investment world is is still largely
  • 00:26:14
    oblivious to and I think you know it's
  • 00:26:16
    it's these sort of endogenous factors
  • 00:26:19
    you know specific to the Bitcoin Network
  • 00:26:21
    the asset the protocol uh but it's also
  • 00:26:23
    important to consider you know the
  • 00:26:25
    exogenous factors that drive demand for
  • 00:26:27
    Bitcoin so you know namely you know the
  • 00:26:29
    fallibility of the incumbent Fiat system
  • 00:26:31
    so as more people recognize the
  • 00:26:34
    unsustainable path of debt creation that
  • 00:26:36
    JY reference and and you know the
  • 00:26:37
    debasement of fiat currency I think the
  • 00:26:39
    signal of Bitcoin becomes more and more
  • 00:26:41
    evident so I tend to look at it a bit
  • 00:26:44
    more of in a vacuum and not try to put a
  • 00:26:46
    specific price point on it but just say
  • 00:26:48
    what is the sort of trajectory here how
  • 00:26:50
    can we look at this directionally and
  • 00:26:52
    assess whether demand is continuing to
  • 00:26:54
    increase and like to likely to increase
  • 00:26:56
    in the future and I think a lot of that
  • 00:26:58
    has to do with you know the network
  • 00:27:00
    itself the sort of different forms of
  • 00:27:02
    utility that it enables uh as well as
  • 00:27:05
    sort of you know reflecting on the
  • 00:27:08
    incumbent system and why uh Bitcoin as a
  • 00:27:10
    pristine store of value makes a lot of
  • 00:27:12
    sense uh in a portfolio
  • 00:27:16
    today yeah awesome yes it does yes it
  • 00:27:19
    does Brian um and if it's okay i' like
  • 00:27:23
    to jump in and I love this page uh in
  • 00:27:26
    Jesse's report because I just can
  • 00:27:29
    visualize why all why the value that he
  • 00:27:33
    laid out in the other page on the
  • 00:27:35
    allocation will fly from Real Estate
  • 00:27:38
    bonds money in and so what I'd like to
  • 00:27:41
    share is the thesis which developed
  • 00:27:43
    whilea was um at credit Swiss a bank
  • 00:27:46
    that no longer exists and disappeared
  • 00:27:48
    overnight um because their job of
  • 00:27:51
    printing Equity to sell to um the
  • 00:27:55
    qataris and others uh wasn't enough to
  • 00:27:58
    keep them afloat because of bad
  • 00:28:00
    behaviors
  • 00:28:02
    so excuse
  • 00:28:04
    me
  • 00:28:08
    um
  • 00:28:10
    what so the thesis that I developed by
  • 00:28:13
    watching the banks
  • 00:28:29
    uh sorry about that I had a little phone
  • 00:28:31
    call that uh came on there because we
  • 00:28:34
    are an emergency here and
  • 00:28:37
    um the the the traditional
  • 00:28:42
    Finance debt load has gone to a level
  • 00:28:46
    that will lock out a lot of people
  • 00:28:51
    from being able to
  • 00:28:54
    accumulate gold art equities real estate
  • 00:28:58
    St bonds and money so everything you see
  • 00:29:01
    here the wages no longer allow
  • 00:29:05
    wealth creation and wealth accumulation
  • 00:29:09
    so that's a major problem and the way
  • 00:29:11
    that we've uh shown that is the growth
  • 00:29:14
    in financial assets versus the growth in
  • 00:29:16
    wages which basically puts home
  • 00:29:18
    ownership out so that's a major problem
  • 00:29:20
    we start at like that Ma hierarchies
  • 00:29:23
    level you know very very Baseline and
  • 00:29:26
    that has gotten um that resonates with
  • 00:29:29
    people because when we look at the
  • 00:29:31
    investment world we basically are trying
  • 00:29:33
    to solve uh you know uh to serve human
  • 00:29:37
    interests to wealth creation um and
  • 00:29:40
    what's the best way to do it so there's
  • 00:29:42
    a problem traditional Finance there's a
  • 00:29:44
    remedy in Bitcoin and there's an urgency
  • 00:29:47
    it's those three words and we started it
  • 00:29:50
    uh a few years ago and we still lean on
  • 00:29:53
    that the problems keep accumulating we
  • 00:29:55
    had that thesis before uh svb bank went
  • 00:29:58
    under we had that before the US got its
  • 00:30:01
    third um downgrade watch list we did it
  • 00:30:04
    before the debt ceiling issues so
  • 00:30:06
    there's a problem and the problems just
  • 00:30:07
    Mount and all that's happening is you're
  • 00:30:10
    having more government intervention do
  • 00:30:12
    things
  • 00:30:14
    like create more of the money the
  • 00:30:16
    Federal Reserve only accounted for about
  • 00:30:19
    10% of the entire monetary uh Supply in
  • 00:30:22
    the US now they account for 40 there's a
  • 00:30:25
    centralization of the US Financial
  • 00:30:27
    system
  • 00:30:28
    because it's become too fragile Muhammad
  • 00:30:30
    alerin talks about this all the time the
  • 00:30:33
    financing of treasuries is now a
  • 00:30:35
    nailbiter there some people don't show
  • 00:30:37
    up so this is happening in real time so
  • 00:30:40
    let me go back to Jesse's Point here and
  • 00:30:43
    and I I just want to share another um
  • 00:30:45
    part of our model in case it helps
  • 00:30:47
    within that problem remedy and urgency
  • 00:30:50
    called to action we look at the world
  • 00:30:52
    through an economic lens how's GDP doing
  • 00:30:55
    how's employment we look at it through
  • 00:30:57
    markets because that's our best way of
  • 00:30:59
    getting information on where the votes
  • 00:31:01
    are for different asset classes equities
  • 00:31:03
    credit rates currencies some of the
  • 00:31:05
    things that Jesse shows here the last
  • 00:31:07
    one are players that's people that's
  • 00:31:10
    central banks that's investors so when I
  • 00:31:12
    look at this chart I see real
  • 00:31:15
    estate it's being held it is it is a
  • 00:31:18
    store of value it's moved from a place
  • 00:31:20
    to live to a place to pass on to your
  • 00:31:23
    children that's not the way it was
  • 00:31:24
    previously but with debasement these
  • 00:31:27
    finite assets
  • 00:31:28
    are held and they're becoming money
  • 00:31:31
    they're starting to be broken up through
  • 00:31:33
    Airbnb people are actually compart you
  • 00:31:36
    know breaking apart their um their homes
  • 00:31:38
    but they can't move them so Bitcoin does
  • 00:31:41
    a better job of storing value and
  • 00:31:43
    disseminating money will go from Real
  • 00:31:45
    Estate to bitcoin it will go from
  • 00:31:47
    equities um to bitcoin and certainly as
  • 00:31:51
    Brian stated money will go from Fiat
  • 00:31:56
    into Bitcoin you know we haven't even
  • 00:31:58
    gotten into um the remittances you know
  • 00:32:01
    1.5 trillion where people pay 8% a year
  • 00:32:04
    so is the case for Bitcoin there
  • 00:32:08
    absolutely there's a trash can fire in
  • 00:32:11
    traditional Finance that's why we spent
  • 00:32:13
    a lot of time focusing on to get people
  • 00:32:16
    alert to this so I'll stop there thank
  • 00:32:18
    you for watching whether you've been
  • 00:32:20
    buying Bitcoin for years or just getting
  • 00:32:22
    started on your journey our
  • 00:32:23
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    the loss of seed phrases and broken
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    Hardware devices and now a word about
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    onramp Heritage Bitcoin inheritance
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    comprehensive estate planning we have a
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    guide that provides a detailed overview
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    role of multi-institution custody in
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    preserving Bitcoin ownership across
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    Generations additionally we will be
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    hosting a webinar on the topic on May
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    22nd and will include the registration
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    details in the show notes visit onramp
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    bitcoin.com Heritage to learn more about
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    Bitcoin inheritance and estate planning
  • 00:33:13
    it's it's a fantastic um added point
  • 00:33:16
    there
  • 00:33:17
    of this this image is really the outcome
  • 00:33:20
    of the current system uh and and 50
  • 00:33:23
    years of Fiat money which is to say
  • 00:33:25
    unbacked paper money as monetary
  • 00:33:28
    standard and the result of that is is
  • 00:33:31
    real estate
  • 00:33:32
    prices going so High um real estate has
  • 00:33:36
    become money it's become our savings
  • 00:33:38
    account we you know the the the
  • 00:33:42
    conventional wisdom has
  • 00:33:43
    become get a mortgage and max out your
  • 00:33:47
    401K and that's how you will save o you
  • 00:33:51
    know for your retirement that that means
  • 00:33:54
    that we're treating those assets as
  • 00:33:55
    money because we're not saving
  • 00:33:58
    dollars for a rainy day you're you're
  • 00:34:01
    plowing your value into these other
  • 00:34:04
    assets to serve as money and that's how
  • 00:34:07
    these buckets have gotten so big um
  • 00:34:09
    relative to the rest of the picture it's
  • 00:34:12
    because that nobody wants to hold the
  • 00:34:14
    the money uh so you end up holding these
  • 00:34:17
    other assets instead and bidding up the
  • 00:34:20
    value of them relative to other Assets
  • 00:34:21
    in the global AET landscape and then
  • 00:34:23
    Bitcoin represents this this potential
  • 00:34:26
    to restore
  • 00:34:28
    um the value of holding money because
  • 00:34:30
    money will not be debased over time and
  • 00:34:33
    you can rely on it for a rainy day
  • 00:34:35
    without it suddenly the money supply
  • 00:34:38
    having doubled since the time you
  • 00:34:40
    originally um you know stashed away that
  • 00:34:42
    that those
  • 00:34:43
    savings um and you know so I think
  • 00:34:46
    Michael sailor has been using this this
  • 00:34:48
    chart it um it's been a quite an honor
  • 00:34:53
    recently he's been using this for some
  • 00:34:54
    presentations and and and starting with
  • 00:34:57
    the the the line of there's a a constant
  • 00:35:01
    ongoing global war for value and where
  • 00:35:06
    you know between assets for for where
  • 00:35:09
    you want to park your value and that's
  • 00:35:12
    that's the story of store of value
  • 00:35:14
    assets and that's why this tiny little
  • 00:35:18
    asset that's
  • 00:35:20
    currently one two one 2000th of of the
  • 00:35:25
    almost 1 1,000th now um of of the value
  • 00:35:28
    in the global asset landscape is
  • 00:35:30
    different from the rest of these buckets
  • 00:35:32
    because of its digital nature it is
  • 00:35:35
    dematerialized and therefore it has
  • 00:35:37
    absolute
  • 00:35:39
    scarcity because you can always make
  • 00:35:41
    more real estate you can always start
  • 00:35:43
    new more companies you can always find
  • 00:35:44
    more gold you can always make more art
  • 00:35:47
    you can certainly print more bonds we've
  • 00:35:48
    been doing that at a at an incredible
  • 00:35:51
    rate of near nearly $6 trillion dollar
  • 00:35:54
    annualized over the last four months
  • 00:35:57
    Jesse can I jump in for one second about
  • 00:35:59
    absolutely a minute ago you were talking
  • 00:36:01
    about you know like a war and um you
  • 00:36:04
    know the there is a friction not
  • 00:36:07
    everyone wants to have this this animal
  • 00:36:10
    of This decentralized Global
  • 00:36:14
    asset get adoption because you said the
  • 00:36:18
    word mortgage to buy a house you usually
  • 00:36:19
    get a mortgage a bank gets paid for that
  • 00:36:22
    bonds get issued there's a fee to issue
  • 00:36:24
    them like this this is feeding a
  • 00:36:26
    traditional banking system in a very
  • 00:36:28
    inefficient manner but we understand I
  • 00:36:31
    was in this space you went after
  • 00:36:32
    transactions even if they weren't
  • 00:36:34
    efficient even if they really didn't you
  • 00:36:36
    know serve the greater good over a
  • 00:36:37
    period of time so you're going to get
  • 00:36:39
    the fud like what Jamie Diamond said
  • 00:36:41
    yesterday of course they don't want to
  • 00:36:43
    have this store value this this thimble
  • 00:36:47
    you said in the ocean grow into an ocean
  • 00:36:49
    liner like but it's going to happen you
  • 00:36:52
    know so I think that's something to
  • 00:36:54
    bring up to our audience because you're
  • 00:36:57
    going to be hearing some negative things
  • 00:37:00
    just because the incentive structures
  • 00:37:01
    aren't aligned to have Bitcoin
  • 00:37:04
    grow it's a fantastic point that there's
  • 00:37:06
    this there's this disconnect between the
  • 00:37:09
    economic reality of Bitcoin with this
  • 00:37:11
    increasing scarcity that's built in and
  • 00:37:13
    it happens every four years because it's
  • 00:37:15
    in the code that everybody's running on
  • 00:37:17
    their computers when you're
  • 00:37:18
    participating in the Bitcoin Network
  • 00:37:20
    it's
  • 00:37:21
    inescapable increasing scarcity will
  • 00:37:24
    happen and that based on the logic
  • 00:37:27
    presented in this report means the value
  • 00:37:29
    of Bitcoin goes up over time as as
  • 00:37:31
    there's less new Supply being introduced
  • 00:37:34
    to the market going out to meet demand
  • 00:37:37
    and that allows the the the cealing
  • 00:37:40
    price of this commodity to to increase
  • 00:37:42
    over time that is so different from the
  • 00:37:45
    noise that we hear that that is not
  • 00:37:48
    rooted in any economic reality about
  • 00:37:51
    concerns about Bitcoin about how Bitcoin
  • 00:37:53
    you
  • 00:37:54
    know how it can can be used by criminals
  • 00:37:58
    and or it it's bad for the environment
  • 00:38:01
    all these things that are are very thin
  • 00:38:03
    arguments and in fact when you dig into
  • 00:38:05
    them um quite to the contrary of reality
  • 00:38:10
    um but there are these justifications
  • 00:38:12
    for why Bitcoin should not be adopted
  • 00:38:14
    that are coming from of course the
  • 00:38:17
    existing system but you know you can't
  • 00:38:19
    stop the re economic reality that is
  • 00:38:21
    simultaneously playing out um in Bitcoin
  • 00:38:24
    so it's up for everyone in the world uh
  • 00:38:27
    to
  • 00:38:29
    to Grapple with that uh dissonance and
  • 00:38:32
    figure out what they believe will happen
  • 00:38:36
    um will economic reality continue
  • 00:38:38
    playing out or will narratives from the
  • 00:38:40
    traditional system um stop
  • 00:38:44
    that yeah I think what one other thing
  • 00:38:47
    to consider here is just the
  • 00:38:49
    juxtaposition of Bitcoin versus all of
  • 00:38:52
    these other buckets in terms of
  • 00:38:54
    basically the the ability to
  • 00:38:58
    foresee what is going to happen in the
  • 00:39:00
    future right like we know that Bitcoin
  • 00:39:02
    Supply issuance is transparent known and
  • 00:39:04
    immutable all these other buckets uh
  • 00:39:07
    there's question marks in terms of new
  • 00:39:09
    Supply coming out to the market new
  • 00:39:11
    businesses being created uh gold coming
  • 00:39:13
    out of the Earth or from some asteroid
  • 00:39:15
    in space that we haven't found yet so
  • 00:39:17
    there's there's I think going back to my
  • 00:39:19
    earlier point about um you know focusing
  • 00:39:23
    on the lever of increasing demand I
  • 00:39:25
    think for me it comes down to
  • 00:39:28
    the likelihood that humans are going to
  • 00:39:31
    increasingly want to store their value
  • 00:39:33
    into the future in something that they
  • 00:39:35
    reliably can predict the supply of right
  • 00:39:38
    and so I I think it's it that jision
  • 00:39:41
    just becomes more and more clear as we
  • 00:39:43
    see uh sort of the mounting debt levels
  • 00:39:46
    deficit spending interest expense on the
  • 00:39:48
    debt all of these things that we're
  • 00:39:49
    aware of um that should raise questions
  • 00:39:53
    in your mind about storing value in all
  • 00:39:54
    of these other buckets and I think sort
  • 00:39:56
    of the pur and simplicity of of
  • 00:39:59
    bitcoin's uh Supply issuance schedule I
  • 00:40:02
    think is something that is going to
  • 00:40:03
    become more and more attractive uh for
  • 00:40:05
    people over time and it's just a matter
  • 00:40:07
    of people sort of being able to Wade
  • 00:40:09
    through the fud Wade through these
  • 00:40:12
    really false narratives that that are
  • 00:40:13
    out there uh and understand that this is
  • 00:40:16
    this is a piece of technology and it
  • 00:40:18
    allows you to propagate your value into
  • 00:40:20
    the future better than anything else
  • 00:40:21
    we've ever seen um and so I think that's
  • 00:40:24
    what I that's what I sort of always come
  • 00:40:26
    back to is like what are the levers that
  • 00:40:28
    are going to make demand continue to
  • 00:40:30
    increase and it's it's ultimately it's
  • 00:40:32
    people getting the knowledge people you
  • 00:40:35
    know attending webinars like this and
  • 00:40:37
    understanding uh sort of the fundamental
  • 00:40:38
    attributes of this thing uh and why
  • 00:40:41
    relative to all these other assets that
  • 00:40:43
    you could store your value in uh it's
  • 00:40:45
    pretty
  • 00:40:46
    attractive yeah I um I I I'm noticing
  • 00:40:50
    that we we're having a bunch of great
  • 00:40:52
    questions about uh that I think we can
  • 00:40:54
    incorporate into this conversation about
  • 00:40:57
    Bitcoin and bitcoin's value um from the
  • 00:40:59
    audience here so um Blake cornfield asks
  • 00:41:03
    about how does this um valuation
  • 00:41:07
    approach uh how was it influenced by by
  • 00:41:09
    high inflation um if inflation was to
  • 00:41:12
    increase into the future what does that
  • 00:41:15
    do um and and he also asks you know if
  • 00:41:19
    if if the numbers I presented in this
  • 00:41:20
    report are are the conservative case
  • 00:41:23
    what's the what's the bullish case um
  • 00:41:25
    for Bitcoin so I guess I'll start with
  • 00:41:28
    with that part there of one of the one
  • 00:41:31
    of the memes that that you'll see in the
  • 00:41:34
    Bitcoin space is um you know the
  • 00:41:37
    eventual value of Bitcoin is is U
  • 00:41:40
    everything divided by 21 million which
  • 00:41:43
    sort of implies that all of the value in
  • 00:41:46
    the world will be um you know funneled
  • 00:41:49
    into Bitcoin and represented in Bitcoin
  • 00:41:52
    but I think that that's not possible um
  • 00:41:56
    that's a two extreme version of what's
  • 00:41:59
    you know the bullish scenario because
  • 00:42:01
    that assumes that nobody wants to hold
  • 00:42:02
    anything else um but of course you're
  • 00:42:05
    going to want to have you know a house
  • 00:42:08
    um land you people are going to want to
  • 00:42:11
    hold the the Monae paintings that are
  • 00:42:14
    their prize possessions and so there's
  • 00:42:16
    value to other assets but the question
  • 00:42:18
    becomes for everyone you know to decide
  • 00:42:21
    for themselves how what percentage of
  • 00:42:24
    the total Global asset pi um does a
  • 00:42:29
    perfect money end up winning versus
  • 00:42:32
    every other asset and I think you can
  • 00:42:34
    draw that line wherever you think is
  • 00:42:37
    possible you know is that is that 5% of
  • 00:42:40
    the total is it 50% of the total that's
  • 00:42:43
    up for everyone to decide um with regard
  • 00:42:46
    to the inflation part of this if we
  • 00:42:49
    enter a if inflation is to increase
  • 00:42:53
    versus what we've seen over the last few
  • 00:42:54
    years if this if this um Spike inflation
  • 00:42:57
    has been um a Prelude uh to what's
  • 00:43:00
    coming with with the amount of sovereign
  • 00:43:02
    debt uh and and I think the level of
  • 00:43:05
    printing that's going to be necessary to
  • 00:43:06
    service sovereign debt given our
  • 00:43:08
    multi-trillion dollar deficits every
  • 00:43:11
    year Well we might be seeing High
  • 00:43:14
    inflation and more higher inflation over
  • 00:43:17
    time and it could be higher and higher
  • 00:43:19
    inflation over time too so this problem
  • 00:43:22
    could continue to get worse um as that
  • 00:43:26
    if that was to happen
  • 00:43:27
    then the value of any assets that is
  • 00:43:31
    based on future cash flows from those
  • 00:43:35
    assets um changes so in in a high
  • 00:43:38
    inflation
  • 00:43:39
    environment um a a company that is you
  • 00:43:43
    know whose value is based on future cash
  • 00:43:46
    flows those future cash flows are worth
  • 00:43:49
    less and so that you discount the value
  • 00:43:51
    of that company more and it become it's
  • 00:43:54
    a less valuable
  • 00:43:55
    company um and so the stock prices
  • 00:43:58
    suffer uh and that's true of of of you
  • 00:44:02
    know commercial real estate as well U
  • 00:44:04
    rental properties the future value of
  • 00:44:06
    those cash flows is discounted more so
  • 00:44:08
    then you you don't want to be holding
  • 00:44:11
    that asset um bonds sell off in that
  • 00:44:14
    environment too and so you know the
  • 00:44:17
    higher inflation goes the more valuable
  • 00:44:20
    an asset that is immune to inflation
  • 00:44:22
    becomes and so you know if that is to
  • 00:44:25
    happen that Trend continues and grow
  • 00:44:28
    Bitcoin becomes more and more attractive
  • 00:44:30
    relative to the existing option set
  • 00:44:33
    anything anything else you get Mark
  • 00:44:35
    Brian you guys want to add to that or we
  • 00:44:37
    can you can pick a a a Q&A question in
  • 00:44:41
    the in that Q&A tab to uh to address
  • 00:44:44
    because these are some really great
  • 00:44:45
    questions from the audience maybe maybe
  • 00:44:47
    just one clarifying point on what you
  • 00:44:49
    just walked through I think and you
  • 00:44:51
    mentioned this when you were originally
  • 00:44:52
    going through it but you know $10
  • 00:44:54
    million per Bitcoin is in today's dollar
  • 00:44:57
    meaning today's purchasing power so yes
  • 00:45:00
    if if inflation uh continues to sort of
  • 00:45:03
    get out of hand 10 20 30 years into the
  • 00:45:06
    future the sort of nominal price per
  • 00:45:09
    Bitcoin could be far higher than 10
  • 00:45:11
    million but what we're saying and what
  • 00:45:13
    Jesse is arguing in in this report is
  • 00:45:15
    that uh he's saying $10 million per
  • 00:45:18
    Bitcoin in today's purchasing power so I
  • 00:45:20
    think that's just an important uh sort
  • 00:45:22
    of caveat to to include
  • 00:45:25
    there perfect
  • 00:45:28
    um and the and on the on the historical
  • 00:45:30
    side about in inflation you know people
  • 00:45:32
    think inflation um you know hurts um
  • 00:45:37
    Bitcoin or even gold because it costs
  • 00:45:39
    more to store gold or um people will buy
  • 00:45:42
    bonds and not buy Bitcoin in the 70s in
  • 00:45:46
    that inflationary period you saw Bitcoin
  • 00:45:48
    return
  • 00:45:50
    14x yes yeah
  • 00:45:53
    sorry I'm I'm I'm projecting Jesse there
  • 00:45:56
    yeah um and that's next decade markk
  • 00:46:00
    right so so such a clairvoyant uh and so
  • 00:46:04
    it people finally but they didn't wake
  • 00:46:06
    up to it what I love about that August
  • 00:46:08
    71 um Sunday night Massacre by Nixon is
  • 00:46:11
    that markets kind of opened up the next
  • 00:46:12
    day unchanged we take a while to figure
  • 00:46:15
    stuff out like in in ' 08 when the
  • 00:46:18
    crisis was going on and DC was figuring
  • 00:46:20
    stuff out our research team came up to
  • 00:46:23
    the CIO when I was at a head fund and we
  • 00:46:25
    said we think the number might be a
  • 00:46:27
    trillion dollars of the bailout we were
  • 00:46:29
    wrong it was 700 billion but no one had
  • 00:46:33
    a trillion in their mind in know8 so
  • 00:46:35
    things have happened so fast that we
  • 00:46:38
    just are lagging this is a that's why I
  • 00:46:40
    love this chart you have here because
  • 00:46:42
    then you get to look at everything
  • 00:46:43
    everyone's like yeah real estate's kind
  • 00:46:45
    of a weird market now and and people are
  • 00:46:46
    atomizing it and monetizing it and yeah
  • 00:46:49
    money is slow you know the velocity of
  • 00:46:52
    money is slow and bitcoin's faster that
  • 00:46:54
    that makes sense Bankers understand that
  • 00:46:56
    and and that's the part that we have to
  • 00:46:58
    do I think as as Educators is is just
  • 00:47:01
    take little nibbits and say it's not
  • 00:47:03
    really working today and and it's not
  • 00:47:05
    going to go away but that little symbol
  • 00:47:07
    again just keep an eye on it I mean
  • 00:47:09
    that's you know get curious do your own
  • 00:47:12
    research get off zero and that's why I
  • 00:47:14
    love this this this webinar um and this
  • 00:47:16
    page in particular so I'll you know go
  • 00:47:19
    back to the Q&A Brian because there some
  • 00:47:21
    good questions yeah I I have I have one
  • 00:47:23
    Jesse um from from David Lewis um and
  • 00:47:27
    he's I'll try to summarize but he's
  • 00:47:28
    basically saying you know BTC is largely
  • 00:47:31
    seen as a store of value encourages
  • 00:47:33
    people to hold it longer term rather
  • 00:47:34
    than trade it and the creation of spot
  • 00:47:36
    ETFs uh will have to physically hold the
  • 00:47:38
    underlying asset um and he's asking uh
  • 00:47:42
    ultimately here about uh the price
  • 00:47:44
    multiplier effect um and how does that
  • 00:47:46
    how could that potentially change this
  • 00:47:47
    analysis and I think that's another
  • 00:47:49
    caveat to point out that you uh in your
  • 00:47:51
    analysis did not account for any
  • 00:47:53
    multiplier effect but I know you have
  • 00:47:54
    some thoughts on that so that that could
  • 00:47:56
    be interesting
  • 00:47:58
    yeah uh that's a great point and and
  • 00:48:01
    Gary Winters also touched on in in his
  • 00:48:04
    question um what happens here with with
  • 00:48:06
    the ETFs um and I think for everyone out
  • 00:48:09
    there who's who's curious like what's
  • 00:48:10
    going on with these ETFs um well the
  • 00:48:13
    first of all it seems likely very likely
  • 00:48:16
    that they will be approved um about a
  • 00:48:18
    month from now at the next
  • 00:48:20
    deadline that is at least according to
  • 00:48:22
    the Bloomberg ETF Specialists who have
  • 00:48:25
    have pegged it at a 99% likelihood as of
  • 00:48:27
    now that these are approved um and so
  • 00:48:30
    what does that what does that create for
  • 00:48:32
    Bitcoin as an asset it creates this
  • 00:48:34
    additional Tailwind uh because this is
  • 00:48:37
    added demand it's a it's a new channel
  • 00:48:40
    for people to gain exposure to bitcoin
  • 00:48:43
    which means additional dollars flowing
  • 00:48:46
    into Bitcoin the asset because um the
  • 00:48:49
    ETFs have to purchase spot Bitcoin and
  • 00:48:52
    hold it for their investors um and so
  • 00:48:56
    that's that's a Tailwind that's
  • 00:48:57
    happening right
  • 00:48:58
    now um and
  • 00:49:01
    and as that process plays out you know
  • 00:49:04
    the that's price Discovery the the
  • 00:49:07
    additional demand will go out and meet
  • 00:49:10
    Supply and that will change the price uh
  • 00:49:13
    over time because there's more demand
  • 00:49:14
    than there used to be um and that'll be
  • 00:49:16
    a slow steady process in my opinion um
  • 00:49:20
    and then there's the multiplier question
  • 00:49:21
    there of you
  • 00:49:23
    know during a bull market we do see that
  • 00:49:27
    um every dollar that flows into Bitcoin
  • 00:49:29
    has some multiplicative effect on the
  • 00:49:31
    total value of all the doll all the
  • 00:49:32
    Bitcoin that exists because if you were
  • 00:49:36
    to buy one one one Bitcoin for $1 more
  • 00:49:41
    than the previous trade um well that new
  • 00:49:45
    price point that that's $1 higher
  • 00:49:47
    applies to all 21 million Bitcoin and so
  • 00:49:50
    and in that in that instant there is a
  • 00:49:52
    21 million x multiplier um on your $1 of
  • 00:49:57
    inflow but that Nets out against all the
  • 00:49:59
    s selling uh pressure as well and we see
  • 00:50:02
    that in a bull market um there's more
  • 00:50:04
    demand then there's Supply that's why
  • 00:50:06
    the price then there's you selling
  • 00:50:08
    pressure so that's why the price goes up
  • 00:50:11
    um and there is a some amount whether
  • 00:50:14
    that's one and a half to Bank of America
  • 00:50:17
    at the very top of the last bull market
  • 00:50:19
    quoted
  • 00:50:20
    a8x multiplier for every dollar of
  • 00:50:24
    inflow to bitcoin but my perspec Ive is
  • 00:50:27
    that the bare markets wash that out and
  • 00:50:30
    so the same negative um multiplier
  • 00:50:33
    effect happens in the bare markets and I
  • 00:50:36
    think that we reach a you know
  • 00:50:40
    effectively either a 1x or you know
  • 00:50:42
    something below below two below 2x
  • 00:50:46
    that's my sense because the alternative
  • 00:50:48
    is that if if 50% of the value in the
  • 00:50:51
    global asset landscape flows into
  • 00:50:53
    Bitcoin and it's a it's a 100x
  • 00:50:55
    multiplier
  • 00:50:57
    you've suddenly grown the total value of
  • 00:50:59
    all that wealth in the world by
  • 00:51:01
    50x and that that just doesn't make
  • 00:51:04
    sense so I think that over time you know
  • 00:51:07
    the the amount of um purchasing power
  • 00:51:11
    can't
  • 00:51:12
    expand just because there's a multiplier
  • 00:51:14
    effect um ultimately wealth is a
  • 00:51:16
    representation of your what percentage
  • 00:51:19
    of the world's resources you can command
  • 00:51:21
    with that wealth and that doesn't
  • 00:51:23
    necessarily mean growing the
  • 00:51:24
    pie um Gary winters also asked um you
  • 00:51:28
    know where are we in the four-year bit
  • 00:51:30
    Bitcoin cycle if if you know this is
  • 00:51:33
    based on if increasing scarcity that
  • 00:51:36
    happens every four years is the the main
  • 00:51:38
    driver um and and so Gary I I think that
  • 00:51:41
    you know we are we are where we have
  • 00:51:44
    always been um a few months before the
  • 00:51:48
    next having which is to say we've gone
  • 00:51:51
    through three and a half years of
  • 00:51:54
    volatility that was triggered by the
  • 00:51:56
    prior
  • 00:51:57
    having um so you know the last having
  • 00:51:59
    was in 2020 we saw volatility to the
  • 00:52:02
    upside over the ensuing 18 months and
  • 00:52:05
    then volatility to the downside um in
  • 00:52:08
    the 12 months that followed that and
  • 00:52:10
    since then we've been kind of
  • 00:52:11
    stabilizing somewhere in the
  • 00:52:13
    middle um and that's what has happened
  • 00:52:15
    after each having historically for the
  • 00:52:18
    last 15 years and here comes the next
  • 00:52:20
    having coming up in um in four months
  • 00:52:24
    now four four months in change
  • 00:52:27
    uh and my expectation is the same
  • 00:52:29
    process will play out of volatility to
  • 00:52:31
    the upside a bull market and there will
  • 00:52:34
    be you know volatility to the downside
  • 00:52:37
    afterwards um and we'll find some sort
  • 00:52:40
    of equilibrium in the middle only for
  • 00:52:41
    the next having to arrive four years
  • 00:52:43
    later and so you can see how that that
  • 00:52:46
    process is the the value proposition of
  • 00:52:48
    Bitcoin as a savings technology yes
  • 00:52:50
    there's volatility along the way but if
  • 00:52:52
    you can hold for four years or more you
  • 00:52:54
    end up at a higher point than you were
  • 00:52:58
    um and so that's I think where where
  • 00:53:00
    we're at which is to say that I'm I'm
  • 00:53:02
    cautiously extremely optimistic about uh
  • 00:53:05
    2024 into
  • 00:53:08
    2025 yeah and just maybe another comment
  • 00:53:11
    going back to what you were saying
  • 00:53:12
    around um the approval of ETFs Jesse you
  • 00:53:16
    know I think it's certainly um going to
  • 00:53:19
    be impactful just from the sort of
  • 00:53:21
    purely uh functional Dynamic of of these
  • 00:53:25
    issuers having to go out and and buy
  • 00:53:27
    Spot Bitcoin um and that that'll be a
  • 00:53:30
    near-term price Catalyst for certain um
  • 00:53:33
    in my mind you know I actually think the
  • 00:53:35
    bigger element here is more from a
  • 00:53:38
    narrative perspective you know I think
  • 00:53:40
    there have been ETF applications out for
  • 00:53:43
    for several years now and I think
  • 00:53:45
    there's been you know there's been a
  • 00:53:47
    reason why that they they've been sort
  • 00:53:49
    of um hesitant to be approved and I
  • 00:53:52
    think part of it is that they know once
  • 00:53:54
    they are approved it sign ific anly
  • 00:53:56
    shifts The Narrative for institutional
  • 00:53:59
    allocators not just in the US but around
  • 00:54:01
    the globe when you know the most
  • 00:54:03
    prominent regulator in the world signs
  • 00:54:06
    off on this thing and gives it the green
  • 00:54:07
    light I think the narrative impact you
  • 00:54:10
    know is is arguably more important than
  • 00:54:12
    sort of the the driving spot demand
  • 00:54:14
    impact but Mark I'm curious your
  • 00:54:15
    thoughts on that so on the on the ETF um
  • 00:54:20
    we'll go back to it's going to happen
  • 00:54:24
    and the reason why we think it's going
  • 00:54:26
    to happen um and I'll go back to your
  • 00:54:28
    question Brian is because a judge
  • 00:54:30
    ordered it and for everybody who's still
  • 00:54:34
    looking at the SP SPF debacle which you
  • 00:54:36
    know you only got clinked up here you
  • 00:54:38
    know a month ago um that's natural and
  • 00:54:41
    they're missing what's going
  • 00:54:42
    on did Bitcoin went through its default
  • 00:54:45
    cycle where the Bad actors got Stripped
  • 00:54:47
    Away from the good asset and it went
  • 00:54:49
    through the court system that was
  • 00:54:51
    critical so that's that narrative Brian
  • 00:54:54
    it's it's it's well earned because it's
  • 00:54:55
    not just coming from uh now influencers
  • 00:54:58
    but from a judge a federal judge called
  • 00:55:01
    the sec's argument the last word in her
  • 00:55:03
    21 page opinion on August 29th was the
  • 00:55:06
    word unlawful I mean it was a it was a
  • 00:55:09
    crazy argument about Futures versus spot
  • 00:55:11
    that made no sense she called it
  • 00:55:13
    arbitrary and capricious we all know
  • 00:55:16
    that term now used eight times and the
  • 00:55:19
    fact that it was more than a rolled up
  • 00:55:21
    newspaper that she took in her opinion
  • 00:55:23
    to smack gendler right in the nose with
  • 00:55:25
    the laugh word was unlawful in other
  • 00:55:27
    words try me and that's why they didn't
  • 00:55:31
    appeal in uh October and bitcoin's gone
  • 00:55:34
    up since for good reason so that
  • 00:55:37
    narrative was started by Black Rock in
  • 00:55:40
    June when they filed I think in support
  • 00:55:43
    of coinbase when they got coinbase got
  • 00:55:45
    sued two weeks prior by the
  • 00:55:47
    SEC and that's an as a business people
  • 00:55:50
    they have incentive they realize it they
  • 00:55:52
    see the skew they know it works really
  • 00:55:54
    well in a balanced portfolio they're
  • 00:55:56
    going to just get their advisors out
  • 00:55:58
    there into the Sovereign wealth funds to
  • 00:56:00
    put in there in in into their portfolios
  • 00:56:02
    that's why they're doing it but later
  • 00:56:05
    when the uh uh courts heard it they had
  • 00:56:10
    no choice but to use the rule of law and
  • 00:56:13
    that rule of law is really what we why
  • 00:56:15
    our conviction is high why we finally
  • 00:56:17
    came out with um only after Jesse and
  • 00:56:21
    team here with a with valuation because
  • 00:56:23
    you have to speak price because now it's
  • 00:56:25
    going to be institutionally adopted so
  • 00:56:29
    that's it people aren't going to
  • 00:56:30
    understand Bitcoin I don't think
  • 00:56:31
    unfortunately before they buy it they're
  • 00:56:33
    just going to listen Black Rock buys and
  • 00:56:34
    they're going do it and that's why we're
  • 00:56:36
    doing this because you can be shaken out
  • 00:56:39
    and you know we can go back to the
  • 00:56:41
    questions
  • 00:56:42
    but we don't want you to buy it because
  • 00:56:44
    Black Rock does it but we're going to
  • 00:56:45
    tell you that unfortunately that's
  • 00:56:46
    what's going to drive uh adoption for
  • 00:56:48
    the you know for the near
  • 00:56:52
    term yeah completely agree with with all
  • 00:56:55
    that
  • 00:56:56
    um and and and and and mark appreciate
  • 00:57:00
    your like extra level of uh um insight
  • 00:57:04
    and awareness of all the machinations
  • 00:57:07
    going on behind the scenes about about
  • 00:57:09
    why the ETF approval is imminent because
  • 00:57:12
    I think it I I'm I'm personally guilty
  • 00:57:14
    of uh it has been so long with um you
  • 00:57:18
    know ETF proposals being last second
  • 00:57:21
    denied that I sort of um am lulled into
  • 00:57:25
    a false sense of
  • 00:57:27
    you know ETFs are nowhere near but the
  • 00:57:30
    reality is they're they're probably one
  • 00:57:32
    month away um and that's not to say that
  • 00:57:35
    that would you know suddenly lead to a
  • 00:57:37
    spike in bitcoin's price on the day but
  • 00:57:40
    it will at that point in time and going
  • 00:57:42
    forward add a Tailwind to
  • 00:57:45
    bitcoin um there's there's a great
  • 00:57:47
    question here from from Mark
  • 00:57:49
    Quigley about you know what are the
  • 00:57:53
    considerations uh in various
  • 00:57:56
    um Bitcoin investment vehicles if these
  • 00:57:59
    ETFs how they come Stack Up versus each
  • 00:58:03
    other um and and then you know what are
  • 00:58:05
    what's the right offering to get
  • 00:58:08
    exposure to bitcoin
  • 00:58:09
    with uh and and Mark I think I think um
  • 00:58:15
    the the high level answer is is uh buy
  • 00:58:17
    or beware uh first of all because there
  • 00:58:20
    are certain uh clauses I took a a a
  • 00:58:24
    close look at the Bitcoin at the Black
  • 00:58:27
    Rock S1 in June and um put together a
  • 00:58:32
    report that's also available on the on
  • 00:58:34
    rant Bitcoin
  • 00:58:35
    website uh
  • 00:58:37
    about um the shortcomings of that
  • 00:58:40
    proposal and you know it comes back to
  • 00:58:43
    the the fact that Bitcoin has certain
  • 00:58:45
    properties that are extremely desirable
  • 00:58:48
    um and the way that most ETFs are are
  • 00:58:52
    done uh kind of undercuts
  • 00:58:56
    of those advantages of of holding
  • 00:58:58
    Bitcoin as an asset um for example
  • 00:59:03
    uh can you take in kind Redemption from
  • 00:59:06
    from these investment funds they'll all
  • 00:59:08
    have slightly different approaches to it
  • 00:59:11
    um and and the SEC has been pushing back
  • 00:59:13
    on that so some have caved on allowing
  • 00:59:15
    that at all black rock is sort of taking
  • 00:59:19
    uh fighting on that and trying to stick
  • 00:59:21
    up for that which is an interesting
  • 00:59:22
    development but still within still with
  • 00:59:25
    these major asterisks of only um
  • 00:59:28
    authorized participants are allowed to
  • 00:59:31
    withdraw Bitcoin in kind and and that
  • 00:59:35
    ultimately means that there's a small
  • 00:59:37
    list of broker dealers who have a
  • 00:59:39
    separate agreement with black rock who
  • 00:59:41
    are
  • 00:59:42
    whitelisted and and allowed to withdraw
  • 00:59:45
    Bitcoin in kind everyone else has to
  • 00:59:48
    withdraw dollars which means you have a
  • 00:59:50
    taxable event when you're withdrawing so
  • 00:59:52
    if you want to go from from some of
  • 00:59:54
    these ETFs or some of these investment
  • 00:59:56
    funds gbtc today for example if you want
  • 00:59:59
    to go from that fund and then take
  • 01:00:02
    control of your own Bitcoin you have a
  • 01:00:05
    taxable event because you have to sell
  • 01:00:07
    your your um position in that fund into
  • 01:00:11
    Dollars taxable event um and then use
  • 01:00:14
    those dollars to go buy Bitcoin so you
  • 01:00:16
    could in that one moment you know um see
  • 01:00:20
    your Bitcoin Holdings cut by
  • 01:00:24
    30% uh so then not all created equal and
  • 01:00:27
    it it's hard to tell uh on the surface
  • 01:00:31
    what are the potential pitfalls of them
  • 01:00:34
    um at at onramp we have a uh a private
  • 01:00:37
    placement trust that is designed to um
  • 01:00:43
    to keep as many of those uh qualities of
  • 01:00:45
    Bitcoin that are desirable to investor
  • 01:00:47
    as possible uh in kind redemptions
  • 01:00:49
    without a taxable event being a major
  • 01:00:51
    one there um so do your research guess
  • 01:00:56
    uh and and know that in particular folks
  • 01:00:59
    who are coming from traditional finance
  • 01:01:01
    and the traditional ETF world are
  • 01:01:04
    structuring these products um to to fit
  • 01:01:08
    Bitcoin into what they know and that
  • 01:01:11
    doesn't always work because Bitcoin has
  • 01:01:14
    these other properties um and so Bitcoin
  • 01:01:17
    native companies or or at least people
  • 01:01:20
    who understand Bitcoin deeply when they
  • 01:01:22
    create a a vehicle it you're you're
  • 01:01:26
    likely to have much more attractive
  • 01:01:28
    properties for that vehicle Mark
  • 01:01:30
    anything you want to add to that or yeah
  • 01:01:32
    so I'll focus on the on the ETF and then
  • 01:01:34
    bring it out to what you just did is the
  • 01:01:37
    spectrum of qualities that are muted in
  • 01:01:39
    certain regulatory rappers like an ETF
  • 01:01:42
    so the ETF is you know is constructive
  • 01:01:45
    we have them we have Bitcoin funds at
  • 01:01:47
    our firm Fred Pi found this you know uh
  • 01:01:50
    took the regulator to a open court in
  • 01:01:53
    order to get it done and and in the
  • 01:01:57
    spirit of what you said about trying to
  • 01:01:59
    capture and transfer the as much of
  • 01:02:01
    bitcoin's unique properties our Bitcoin
  • 01:02:04
    fund does allow for in kind Redemption
  • 01:02:06
    so you can take it on the annual
  • 01:02:08
    Redemption you know ETFs offer liquidity
  • 01:02:11
    for this round I agree with you is you
  • 01:02:14
    would love to see the ability to have um
  • 01:02:17
    in kind but I I don't I don't think
  • 01:02:19
    you're going to see that so the fee part
  • 01:02:22
    certainly important uh the other one
  • 01:02:24
    though is just tracking so you you you
  • 01:02:26
    want to be able to see not right away
  • 01:02:28
    but over time are they compounding your
  • 01:02:31
    dollars well um and you know I guess
  • 01:02:36
    back to what you were saying it does
  • 01:02:38
    serve a purpose a regulatory rapper for
  • 01:02:40
    one thing the other one though is
  • 01:02:42
    eventually even our firm which provides
  • 01:02:46
    um regulatory products which means that
  • 01:02:49
    they aren't custody like yours we offer
  • 01:02:53
    uh courses or or um not courses but but
  • 01:02:56
    we do talk to people about self-
  • 01:02:57
    sovereignty that is the ultimate goal
  • 01:03:00
    and so we think the ETFs are a step
  • 01:03:02
    along that way so we don't discount them
  • 01:03:05
    it is my business so we're talking my
  • 01:03:07
    own book up a bit here but we recognize
  • 01:03:09
    that it serves a purpose but as you said
  • 01:03:12
    know what you're getting know it's how
  • 01:03:14
    it's structured um uh which is no small
  • 01:03:18
    potatoes and you guys I'll leave that to
  • 01:03:19
    you because I think you are that endgame
  • 01:03:22
    about about offering that to clients so
  • 01:03:25
    thank you sir a great obviously um role
  • 01:03:29
    for
  • 01:03:30
    people I think we started the call off
  • 01:03:32
    with Cam talking about it custodianship
  • 01:03:34
    is the hardest concept to understand so
  • 01:03:37
    black rock is saying I got you 3 IQ says
  • 01:03:40
    I got you yes and understand it because
  • 01:03:43
    it's not it's it's not the same process
  • 01:03:46
    as a DTC eligible security yeah yeah and
  • 01:03:50
    and and we we're slightly over on time
  • 01:03:53
    here so we'll we'll shift into the wrap
  • 01:03:55
    up phase but to that point um if anyone
  • 01:03:58
    out there is you know curious to to talk
  • 01:04:01
    more about specific considerations that
  • 01:04:04
    that you have with your certain
  • 01:04:07
    circumstances um with regard to these
  • 01:04:09
    products or on-ramps products um we
  • 01:04:12
    would love to talk with you so you can
  • 01:04:13
    schedule a consultation with us uh just
  • 01:04:16
    reach out to on our website big button
  • 01:04:19
    right there uh to schedule a
  • 01:04:21
    consultation and talk with one of us
  • 01:04:23
    about your particular concerns or
  • 01:04:25
    situation
  • 01:04:26
    um and yep and the the the link for that
  • 01:04:30
    just popped up in the in the chat window
  • 01:04:32
    there um Mark I know you you wanted to
  • 01:04:35
    make sure to talk about something that
  • 01:04:37
    you were um you know wanted to put in a
  • 01:04:40
    a pitch for sure so the uh our problem
  • 01:04:45
    remedy and urgency the urgency is
  • 01:04:48
    flashing a bit here with the
  • 01:04:49
    ETF and we have a 12-page document
  • 01:04:53
    called the advisor care kit basically
  • 01:04:57
    when you get that call from people
  • 01:04:58
    saying what what's going on with Bitcoin
  • 01:05:00
    I want to buy it um but I heard about U
  • 01:05:04
    it's used for Crime Etc so all of that
  • 01:05:07
    talk that Jesse and Brian talked about
  • 01:05:09
    that's
  • 01:05:10
    incorrectly you know all the shade being
  • 01:05:12
    thrown at Bitcoin by people trying to
  • 01:05:14
    protect their own turf because they're
  • 01:05:16
    not incentivized for bitcoin's growth
  • 01:05:19
    whether it be energy use Etc we have a a
  • 01:05:22
    quick answer so you can get capture that
  • 01:05:24
    order and not have them sell equities
  • 01:05:27
    and buy Bitcoin away so it's it's a way
  • 01:05:29
    to preserve your book as an advisor
  • 01:05:31
    because the demand is coming and you
  • 01:05:33
    have to answer the call and and where
  • 01:05:35
    can they find that report Mark that
  • 01:05:38
    would be um on our uh it'll be attached
  • 01:05:41
    to our weekly so it'll be in our uh
  • 01:05:43
    website 3
  • 01:05:54
    iq.com and you know please schedule a
  • 01:05:57
    consultation we can have a one-on-one
  • 01:05:59
    conversation with you about about any of
  • 01:06:01
    your questions and concerns um and again
  • 01:06:04
    uh this report the bit bitcoin's full
  • 01:06:06
    potential valuation is available on our
  • 01:06:08
    website at the top there there's a
  • 01:06:10
    button um you know that says bitcoin's
  • 01:06:13
    full potential valuation you can also
  • 01:06:15
    find it in the link in the chat um and
  • 01:06:18
    and Brian if you want to talk about
  • 01:06:19
    webinar Series going
  • 01:06:21
    forward yeah we uh we are hoping to do
  • 01:06:23
    this on sort of a quarterly Cadence and
  • 01:06:26
    um we'll sort of be covering different
  • 01:06:29
    topics uh ranging anywhere from you know
  • 01:06:32
    bitcoin's fundamentals to just various
  • 01:06:34
    ways to the to be thinking about this
  • 01:06:36
    asset and it'll usually coincide with
  • 01:06:38
    some research reports that we've written
  • 01:06:40
    so um really excited that everyone uh
  • 01:06:43
    was able to make it for this first one
  • 01:06:45
    and hope that uh you'll make it for the
  • 01:06:46
    next and and just wanted to say a
  • 01:06:48
    special thanks to mark for joining us uh
  • 01:06:50
    it was a great conversation and really
  • 01:06:51
    appreciate it yeah thanks Brian Jesse
  • 01:06:54
    thank you Mark it was awesome well
  • 01:06:56
    that's all we have everyone uh thank you
  • 01:06:57
    for joining and uh hope to catch you
  • 01:06:59
    next time thank you for listening if you
  • 01:07:01
    found the information valuable please
  • 01:07:03
    share the episode with a friend or leave
  • 01:07:04
    a rating on your favorite podcast app or
  • 01:07:06
    on YouTube all the links we discussed in
  • 01:07:08
    today's webinar will be in the show
  • 01:07:10
    notes regardless of where you are on
  • 01:07:12
    your Bitcoin Journey we'd love to hear
  • 01:07:13
    from you visit onramp bitcoin.com cont
  • 01:07:16
    to schedule a consultation with one of
  • 01:07:18
    our Private Client advisers
タグ
  • Bitcoin
  • Digital Scarcity
  • Valuation
  • Store of Value
  • Multi-Institution Custody
  • Investment Strategy
  • Economic Uncertainty
  • Fiat Currency
  • Bitcoin ETF
  • Asset Security