The Economic Naturalist | Robert Frank | Talks at Google

00:55:01
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QalNVxeIKEE

概要

TLDRRobert Frank discusses his book 'The Economic Naturalist' at a Google event, emphasizing the importance of understanding fundamental economic concepts through engaging narratives and examples. He criticizes traditional economics education for overloading students with material, leading to poor retention of concepts like opportunity cost. Frank shares his educational philosophy of focusing on a few key ideas, illustrated with compelling real-world questions like why drive-up ATM keypads have Braille dots. His approach draws on experience teaching Nepali, emphasizing simplicity and repetition for deep learning. Frank highlights narratives' power to make concepts memorable and relatable and tackles misconceptions around opportunity costs by illustrating cost-benefit analysis with real-life scenarios.

収穫

  • 👤 Robert Frank critiques traditional economics education for being ineffective.
  • 📘 His book 'The Economic Naturalist' uses real-world questions to teach economics.
  • 🔄 Focus on opportunity cost and cost-benefit analysis through stories.
  • 👨‍🏫 Emphasizes teaching a few key concepts deeply rather than covering many topics superficially.
  • 🔍 Uses everyday examples like ATM Braille pads to explain economic principles.
  • 📖 Learning through narrative is more engaging and retains knowledge better.
  • 🧠 Analyzing opportunity costs helps understand the value of alternatives.
  • 🛠 Real-world scenarios make abstract economic ideas concrete.
  • 🎓 Encourages an educational approach inspired by language acquisition methods.
  • 🌟 Highlights the importance of clear, relatable teaching in economics.

タイムライン

  • 00:00:00 - 00:05:00

    The speaker introduces Robert Frank, an accomplished economist and author, who will be discussing his book 'The Economic Naturalist.' Frank humorously notes the mixed perceptions people have of economists and emphasizes the ineffectiveness of traditional economic teaching methods, particularly highlighting the oversaturation of complex graphics in introductory courses which fail to impart foundational concepts.

  • 00:05:00 - 00:10:00

    Frank argues that introductory economics courses overwhelm students with content, leading to poor knowledge retention. He illustrates this with a study on 'opportunity cost,' revealing a significant number of students and even PhD economists fail to understand it. Frank posits that focusing on fewer economic concepts in depth would enhance learning.

  • 00:10:00 - 00:15:00

    Opportunities for better learning, as Frank showcases, lie in directly engaging students with practical examples. He recounts his own experience learning Nepali through repetitive, practical drills. This immersive method of learning contrasts sharply with the ineffective, traditional approach of overwhelming students with theory rather than practical engagement.

  • 00:15:00 - 00:20:00

    The speaker highlights the simplicity and effectiveness of learning through examples and narratives, suggesting that students retain ideas better this way. Frank uses the theory of opportunity cost to explain behaviors and phenomena in various contexts—from the attitudes of New Yorkers to externalities affecting wildlife—to emphasize the power of practical examples in learning.

  • 00:20:00 - 00:25:00

    Frank introduces the 'cost-benefit principle,' simplifying the decision-making process by weighing actions' benefits against their costs. He uses everyday analogies—such as choosing between buying an alarm clock or a laptop at different prices and locations—to drive home the point that economic decisions should be consistent regardless of context.

  • 00:25:00 - 00:30:00

    Frank employs the concept of 'hurdle pricing,' using practical examples from everyday life to explain how businesses use psychological pricing strategies to target different consumer groups. He explains that people are often incentivized to overcome trivial obstacles in order to secure discounts, illustrating concepts like price discrimination through tangible instances.

  • 00:30:00 - 00:35:00

    The narrative shifts to biological examples to elucidate economic principles. Frank discusses how male physical traits in certain species result from evolutionary arms races, leading to inefficiencies, analogous to economic markets. He links these examples back to economic principles, suggesting that market forces sometimes push behaviors and strategies beyond rational limits.

  • 00:35:00 - 00:40:00

    Frank critiques the rational choice model in economics through real-world analogies, arguing against unregulated individual choices that lead to suboptimal group outcomes. He illustrates this with examples, such as helmet regulations in hockey, to show that individual pursuits can conflict with collective well-being, demanding sensible regulations.

  • 00:40:00 - 00:45:00

    Frank reflects on institutional regulations and their conflict with individual liberties, using sports analogies to illustrate how common interests govern individual behavior for greater societal benefit. He argues that regulations often aim to curb excessive competitive behaviors, improving outcomes for the group over individual advantage.

  • 00:45:00 - 00:55:01

    Frank wraps up by answering questions on the relevance and adaptation of his teaching methods, the reception of his ideas, and the broader implications of pairing economic analysis with ethical considerations. He insists on the importance of contextual and narrative-driven teaching for meaningful real-world learning, emphasizing the practical, transformative impact of his methodology.

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よくある質問

  • Who is Robert Frank?

    Robert Frank is a professor of management and economics at Cornell University and an author of several books, including 'The Economic Naturalist'.

  • What is 'The Economic Naturalist' about?

    The book explores economic concepts through engaging questions, focusing on opportunity cost and cost-benefit analysis.

  • Why does Robert Frank believe that students often don't retain economic concepts?

    Frank argues that introductory economics courses cover too much material, without focusing enough on understanding core concepts deeply.

  • What is an example of a question from 'The Economic Naturalist'?

    One question is why ATM keypads at drive-up locations have Braille dots, which is explained by the need for consistent manufacturing processes.

  • What is Robert Frank's approach to teaching economics?

    He believes in focusing on a few core economic concepts and illustrating them with relatable and engaging real-world examples.

  • How did Robert Frank teach Nepali effectively in the Peace Corp?

    He utilized repetitive drills and active participation, focusing on simple, practical language skills akin to how a child learns.

  • What misconception does the book challenge?

    The notion that more content coverage equates to better learning, advocating instead for depth over breadth in understanding.

  • Why do people often misunderstand opportunity cost?

    Many people struggle with the concept because traditional teaching methods don't emphasize practical application and comprehension.

  • How does Robert Frank view the role of narratives in learning?

    He believes narratives are a powerful tool for understanding and retaining economic concepts, as they are more engaging and memorable.

  • What example does Robert Frank use to illustrate cost-benefit analysis?

    He uses the decision to drive downtown for a discount as a context for understanding the balance of benefits and costs.

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  • 00:00:00
    hi everyone and welcome to today's
  • 00:00:01
    authors at Google event it's my pleasure
  • 00:00:03
    to bring Robert Frank to Google today um
  • 00:00:06
    he's the author of several books
  • 00:00:07
    including the winter take all society
  • 00:00:09
    and principles principles of economics
  • 00:00:11
    which he co-authored with Ben beri he
  • 00:00:13
    writes the monthly column the economics
  • 00:00:16
    scene for the New York Times and is
  • 00:00:18
    currently a professor of management and
  • 00:00:20
    professor of Economics at the Johnson
  • 00:00:22
    Graduate School of Management at Cornell
  • 00:00:24
    University he's here today to speak
  • 00:00:25
    about his book The Economic naturalist
  • 00:00:27
    we'll be taking questions and citing
  • 00:00:29
    books afterward
  • 00:00:30
    um without any further Ado please join
  • 00:00:32
    me in welcoming Robert Frank to
  • 00:00:39
    Google thank you Ricky yeah it's a
  • 00:00:41
    pleasure to be here uh just to see the
  • 00:00:43
    the sort of the epicenter of the winter
  • 00:00:45
    take all Society is kind of a thrill for
  • 00:00:47
    me uh this book is one uh I've been
  • 00:00:51
    having a great deal of fun talking about
  • 00:00:53
    because it it's one I can be effusive in
  • 00:00:56
    my praise of because it's two-thirds of
  • 00:00:58
    it uh sourc to my students it's a as it
  • 00:01:02
    become clear as I explained the nature
  • 00:01:05
    of it uh there's some great ideas in the
  • 00:01:07
    book and most of them are not mine but
  • 00:01:09
    I'm I'm really pleased to have a chance
  • 00:01:10
    to share them with you I've been
  • 00:01:12
    teaching economics at Cornell for a long
  • 00:01:15
    time I started
  • 00:01:16
    1972 uh three friends of mine in
  • 00:01:19
    different cities sent me this cartoon
  • 00:01:21
    shortly after I started uh I'd like to
  • 00:01:23
    introduce you to Marty Thorn Decker he's
  • 00:01:24
    an economist but he's really very nice
  • 00:01:27
    I've always thought cartoons are data if
  • 00:01:30
    the artist does a drawing and you get it
  • 00:01:32
    then that's telling you something about
  • 00:01:33
    the world uh so what what is it exactly
  • 00:01:37
    I I had noticed people reacting to
  • 00:01:38
    economists uh with fear and loathing
  • 00:01:42
    long before I even saw this cartoon
  • 00:01:44
    people would ask me at cocktail parties
  • 00:01:45
    what did I do and I'd say I was an econ
  • 00:01:48
    I grew to dread saying that I was an
  • 00:01:50
    economist because you could just see the
  • 00:01:51
    Panic look on people's faces what what
  • 00:01:54
    was it uh that made them so unhappy to
  • 00:01:57
    learn I was an economist so I started
  • 00:01:58
    asking people and the great thing is
  • 00:02:00
    people will try to answer questions like
  • 00:02:02
    that you know so they thought and they
  • 00:02:04
    sort of dredged back in memory you know
  • 00:02:06
    why did they have that reaction and
  • 00:02:08
    surprisingly often people said to me
  • 00:02:11
    that they'd had an introductory course
  • 00:02:13
    all these many years ago and there were
  • 00:02:15
    these horrible equations and graphs that
  • 00:02:17
    was their memory of the course this is a
  • 00:02:20
    a famous graph I clipped from a a book
  • 00:02:23
    an a leading seller in the introductory
  • 00:02:25
    Market that builds itself as a less is
  • 00:02:27
    more book it's a graph that the
  • 00:02:29
    originator and his draftsman argued
  • 00:02:31
    about endlessly the draftsman finally
  • 00:02:34
    persuaded Jacob Viner that it couldn't
  • 00:02:36
    be drawn according to the economist
  • 00:02:38
    specifications and I won't bore you with
  • 00:02:40
    the Gory details except to say that this
  • 00:02:42
    graph doesn't belong in the introductory
  • 00:02:44
    course this is just not a good way for
  • 00:02:47
    economic students to be learning about
  • 00:02:49
    the basic ideas of our science it's just
  • 00:02:51
    a total waste of their time uh maybe at
  • 00:02:54
    some point this is the right thing for
  • 00:02:56
    them to but not during the introductory
  • 00:02:58
    course what we've discovered CED now as
  • 00:03:00
    a result of systematic investigation of
  • 00:03:03
    uh the outcome of the principal's course
  • 00:03:05
    is that when students take an exam 6
  • 00:03:08
    months after having taken the basic
  • 00:03:10
    principles course you can't
  • 00:03:13
    tell uh that they've taken the course at
  • 00:03:15
    all they score about the same as people
  • 00:03:17
    who never took the course uh which if
  • 00:03:18
    you think about what a scandalous level
  • 00:03:20
    of of performance that is I mean if it
  • 00:03:22
    were in any other sector there would be
  • 00:03:24
    lawsuits filed there'd be people wanting
  • 00:03:25
    their money back here we just offer the
  • 00:03:28
    course nobody learns anything and uh
  • 00:03:30
    life goes on it's it's it's interesting
  • 00:03:33
    uh the insulation from feedback that the
  • 00:03:35
    course operates
  • 00:03:37
    in I think the the problem is that
  • 00:03:39
    people ask how much can I cover today
  • 00:03:41
    they want to and then if they cover a
  • 00:03:42
    lot wow I was good today I really
  • 00:03:44
    covered a lot you really need to ask how
  • 00:03:46
    much can people absorb uh at a setting
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    and what's the best weigh in people
  • 00:03:50
    don't typically ask that
  • 00:03:52
    question so if you took an economics
  • 00:03:55
    course here's an idea you should have
  • 00:03:56
    learned about uh everybody says it's one
  • 00:03:59
    of the ideas uh some former students of
  • 00:04:02
    mine uh did a paper designed to test
  • 00:04:05
    whether people did learn about
  • 00:04:07
    opportunity cost in any meaningful way
  • 00:04:09
    from the introductory course so here's a
  • 00:04:12
    here's the paper uh it was published in
  • 00:04:14
    one of the Berkeley electronic
  • 00:04:16
    journals they asked students this
  • 00:04:20
    question uh here's the preamble to it
  • 00:04:23
    you've got a free ticket to see Clapton
  • 00:04:24
    tonight no resale value uh that's
  • 00:04:27
    important the only other thing you're
  • 00:04:28
    thinking about doing is seeing Dylan
  • 00:04:30
    tonight uh they're it's his last stop
  • 00:04:33
    where you are you won't be able to get
  • 00:04:34
    to see him again either they're both on
  • 00:04:36
    their farewell tours you don't have a
  • 00:04:39
    ticket to Dylan to get one you have to
  • 00:04:41
    spend
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    $40 and on a given day you'd be willing
  • 00:04:45
    to pay as much as $50 to see
  • 00:04:47
    Dylan okay you've got your Clapton
  • 00:04:50
    ticket there's no other cost associated
  • 00:04:52
    with seeing either performer no taxi
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    fars no babysitters nothing just strip
  • 00:04:57
    away all the extraneous complexity so
  • 00:05:00
    you're willing to pay 50 to see Dylan it
  • 00:05:02
    costs 40 to buy a ticket you don't have
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    one yet what's the opportunity cost of
  • 00:05:08
    seeing the Clapton concert remember the
  • 00:05:10
    definition I flashed quickly on the
  • 00:05:12
    screen said the opportunity cost is the
  • 00:05:14
    value of what you give up to do it okay
  • 00:05:16
    and so here the only thing you're giving
  • 00:05:18
    up is seeing the Dylan concert what's
  • 00:05:20
    the value you're giving
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    up what's the opportunity cost of seeing
  • 00:05:24
    Eric clam it was a multiple choice
  • 00:05:26
    question zero was one possibility 10
  • 00:05:30
    40 or 50 pick
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    one there's a uniquely correct answer
  • 00:05:35
    and that's
  • 00:05:36
    it the you're giving up the Dylan
  • 00:05:39
    concert it's worth $50 to you but you
  • 00:05:42
    got to pay $40 to see it and so what you
  • 00:05:45
    really giving up is the $10 difference
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    that's your economic surplus from so
  • 00:05:50
    it's not such an easy question maybe but
  • 00:05:51
    if you had a decent course that stressed
  • 00:05:53
    this concept you ought to have been able
  • 00:05:55
    to answer it
  • 00:05:57
    7.4% of 270 undergraduates they surveyed
  • 00:06:00
    got it right think about it uh if you
  • 00:06:02
    just guessed you'd get it right 25% of
  • 00:06:04
    the time so you can say a little bit of
  • 00:06:06
    knowledge is a dangerous thing here uh
  • 00:06:08
    we're steering them uh in the wrong
  • 00:06:11
    direction if we're steering them at all
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    they looked at some students who' never
  • 00:06:15
    had the course they didn't do so well
  • 00:06:16
    either but they did more than twice as
  • 00:06:18
    well as the students who'd had a course
  • 00:06:20
    okay as again again I say my hypothesis
  • 00:06:23
    that we're just throwing so much stuff
  • 00:06:25
    at them and we're not sort of going into
  • 00:06:26
    it in depth and letting them see how it
  • 00:06:28
    works that they don't really get it at
  • 00:06:29
    all goes by and a blur they investigated
  • 00:06:31
    a different hypothesis it was that the
  • 00:06:33
    professors who are teaching them the
  • 00:06:35
    opportunity cost concept never really
  • 00:06:37
    learned it very well themselves they
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    took an introductory course where it was
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    one of a thousand items on the syllabus
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    so they said let's see how the
  • 00:06:44
    professors do they went to the AA in
  • 00:06:48
    Philadelphia the annual convention asked
  • 00:06:51
    200 almost 200 PhD economists these are
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    the distinguished ones the ones who
  • 00:06:55
    don't do do well don't like to show up
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    at the convention they're embarrassed so
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    so
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    25.1% of them chose zero I can't think
  • 00:07:03
    of any narrative under which that could
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    conceivably be the correct answer 21.6%
  • 00:07:08
    chose the correct answer the least
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    frequently chosen one of the four 25.6%
  • 00:07:13
    chose 40 and
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    27.6% chose 50 I was so astonished by
  • 00:07:18
    this I wrote one of my New York Times
  • 00:07:20
    columns about it and I got angry emails
  • 00:07:21
    from economus saying oh why didn't you
  • 00:07:23
    say you meant net opportunity costs I
  • 00:07:25
    thought you meant gross opportunity
  • 00:07:27
    costs well do a Google search on net
  • 00:07:30
    opportunity cost and gross opportunity
  • 00:07:32
    cost in quotes nothing comes up you know
  • 00:07:34
    there's no such concept as that it's not
  • 00:07:37
    it's there's a right answer here and
  • 00:07:39
    they didn't get it for the most part so
  • 00:07:42
    uh Ben banki and I sort of animated by
  • 00:07:44
    these findings thought well if you just
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    pick six or seven ideas and hammer away
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    at them for a semester showing them how
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    they work in in specific contexts that
  • 00:07:54
    people take an interested in interest in
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    people ought to be able to master them
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    pretty well in form month's time uh
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    that's a reasonable goal and I think
  • 00:08:02
    we've scored on that so the opportunity
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    cost concept becomes clearer when you
  • 00:08:08
    see it in a variety of contexts and here
  • 00:08:10
    here's a nice one so why do residents of
  • 00:08:12
    Manhattan tend to be rude and impatient
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    while residents of Topeka tend to be
  • 00:08:16
    friendly and courteous this is obviously
  • 00:08:18
    a caricature but if you open a map in
  • 00:08:21
    toeka there'll be people immediately
  • 00:08:22
    come ask asking whether you need help in
  • 00:08:25
    Manhattan they'll they'll Scurry by uh
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    typically sometimes they'll stop help uh
  • 00:08:31
    the student who did this uh question in
  • 00:08:34
    my course suggested that it might be
  • 00:08:36
    because the opportunity cost of time is
  • 00:08:39
    nowhere on the planet higher than in New
  • 00:08:41
    York uh the wage rate is higher per hour
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    there than any other City uh the value
  • 00:08:46
    of the things you could be doing if you
  • 00:08:48
    weren't working uh is much higher there
  • 00:08:50
    than any other city and so if you
  • 00:08:51
    interrupt somebody's trajectory in New
  • 00:08:53
    York you're imposing a much bigger cost
  • 00:08:55
    on her than in Tupa maybe that's not the
  • 00:08:59
    right answer but it's at least an
  • 00:09:00
    interesting answer and it's one that uh
  • 00:09:02
    makes sense logically and helps you keep
  • 00:09:04
    the concept in
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    mind this whole less is more idea uh I
  • 00:09:09
    saw for the first time in the language
  • 00:09:11
    instruction domain i' I'd like many
  • 00:09:13
    people taken multiple years of different
  • 00:09:16
    foreign languages four years in my case
  • 00:09:17
    of high school Spanish another couple of
  • 00:09:19
    years of German I traveled in Spain I
  • 00:09:21
    traveled in Germany I had a very
  • 00:09:23
    difficult time making myself understood
  • 00:09:25
    uh during those first trips you know
  • 00:09:27
    people would look at me uh
  • 00:09:30
    I I will try to recreate the exchanges
  • 00:09:33
    uh we tried to have but it was clear
  • 00:09:34
    that four years was uh not successful in
  • 00:09:38
    making me an effective Communicator in
  • 00:09:40
    Spanish uh so maybe you just can't learn
  • 00:09:44
    in four years well it turned out uh when
  • 00:09:46
    I was a Peace Corp volunteer trainee I
  • 00:09:48
    was uh set to go to Nepal in 13 weeks I
  • 00:09:50
    was going to be teaching math and
  • 00:09:52
    science to 9th and 10th graders in
  • 00:09:54
    Nepali uh like most everyone else I'd
  • 00:09:58
    never heard a word of Nepali when I
  • 00:09:59
    arrived at the the camp they started
  • 00:10:02
    simple they didn't do any complicated uh
  • 00:10:06
    language equivalents of that graph I
  • 00:10:07
    showed you uh on the E economics uh
  • 00:10:10
    slide uh words uh at a time a couple
  • 00:10:14
    words then short sentences there was an
  • 00:10:16
    enormous amount of repetition drill if
  • 00:10:18
    you couldn't get it they would make you
  • 00:10:19
    keep drilling it until you did get it
  • 00:10:21
    and it was always an active learning
  • 00:10:23
    process you had to be supplying things
  • 00:10:25
    on the Fly and that's how you sort of
  • 00:10:27
    get the knowledge built in in a way
  • 00:10:29
    where it's actually accessible to you
  • 00:10:31
    when you can make use of it and then
  • 00:10:33
    build on your own that was that was the
  • 00:10:35
    the the theme of the program it was
  • 00:10:37
    basically to mimic the way a child
  • 00:10:39
    learns to speak his native tongue that's
  • 00:10:41
    exactly the way they they tried to do it
  • 00:10:43
    uh that was the very first sentence I
  • 00:10:45
    ever learned in Nepali yopi mahot I can
  • 00:10:48
    say it in my sleep uh this hat is
  • 00:10:50
    expensive it's a good sentence uh you
  • 00:10:52
    have to bargain for everything so to be
  • 00:10:54
    able to say that something's too
  • 00:10:55
    expensive is is you know right out of
  • 00:10:57
    the box something useful then they would
  • 00:10:58
    say lamo MOA that's the the noun for
  • 00:11:01
    long socks and we would have to on the
  • 00:11:03
    Fly say l n these long socks or MOA
  • 00:11:10
    mongot these long socks are expensive
  • 00:11:13
    and if you couldn't do it on the Fly
  • 00:11:14
    then you'd keep drilling it and it was
  • 00:11:16
    it was just this marvelous sense of
  • 00:11:17
    empowerment we would go and do these uh
  • 00:11:20
    they wouldn't have to tell us go do uh
  • 00:11:22
    conversations in theal we wanted to do
  • 00:11:24
    them just because we could could do
  • 00:11:26
    them if I had one principle I could
  • 00:11:29
    teach people I said we try to drum uh
  • 00:11:31
    three uh five or six of them into
  • 00:11:33
    students heads during the term but if if
  • 00:11:35
    there was one I could do it would be the
  • 00:11:36
    the basic Grand Daddy volum the cost
  • 00:11:38
    benefit principle it's very simple
  • 00:11:41
    sounding it says do it if the benefits
  • 00:11:43
    exceed the costs uh there turns out to
  • 00:11:45
    be complication involved figuring out
  • 00:11:48
    what's the the relevant measure of a
  • 00:11:50
    benefit and cost but the the idea itself
  • 00:11:52
    is fairly simple here's an example
  • 00:11:56
    you're about to buy an alarm clock at
  • 00:11:57
    the campus store right next door or a
  • 00:11:59
    friend tells you you can get it downtown
  • 00:12:01
    at Kmart a short drive away for
  • 00:12:04
    $10 you drive down to Kmart these are
  • 00:12:06
    questions I've given students multiple
  • 00:12:08
    times invariably they will answer of
  • 00:12:11
    course I would go down to the Kmart 90%
  • 00:12:14
    it's a cost benefit question but there's
  • 00:12:15
    no right answer it's a question how much
  • 00:12:17
    trouble do you think it is to go
  • 00:12:18
    downtown to get the the clock for $10 at
  • 00:12:22
    Kmart so 90% would go downtown then I
  • 00:12:25
    asked them this question you're about to
  • 00:12:27
    buy a laptop at the campus store for 20
  • 00:12:29
    $510 it's available at the Kmart same
  • 00:12:32
    laptop you got to send it to the same
  • 00:12:33
    manufacturer if it breaks do you go down
  • 00:12:35
    would you go downtown to the Kmart and
  • 00:12:37
    get it here they think I've asked a
  • 00:12:39
    totally stupid question well of course
  • 00:12:41
    not just to save .01% on the price of
  • 00:12:44
    the laptop who would be stupid enough to
  • 00:12:46
    do that well it turns out if you are a
  • 00:12:48
    rational person and you decide by
  • 00:12:50
    weighing costs and benefits there's no
  • 00:12:53
    right answer but the answer ought to be
  • 00:12:54
    the same for for both of these examples
  • 00:12:57
    so the benefit is $10 in both cases
  • 00:12:59
    the cost is whatever it is if you think
  • 00:13:01
    it's not worth it to drive downtown for
  • 00:13:03
    less than $100 then you should buy the
  • 00:13:05
    item at the campus store in both cases
  • 00:13:08
    if you think the inconvenience of
  • 00:13:09
    driving downtown is $2 worth then go
  • 00:13:12
    downtown in both cases so nobody likes
  • 00:13:15
    to be an irrational person the students
  • 00:13:17
    are a little troubled by this but they
  • 00:13:19
    but they like going back to ask these
  • 00:13:20
    same questions to their friends in the
  • 00:13:22
    dorms then pointing out that they're
  • 00:13:23
    irrational when they answer inconsistent
  • 00:13:25
    so on but it's a way of sort of
  • 00:13:27
    hammering the message home it's it's
  • 00:13:29
    it's it's the message in a familiar
  • 00:13:31
    context that's how the message syncs in
  • 00:13:33
    much more readily I always give them an
  • 00:13:35
    example once they've seen these just to
  • 00:13:37
    hammer it one more time you know there's
  • 00:13:40
    not a such thing as too much repetition
  • 00:13:42
    in this process so you you got a flight
  • 00:13:45
    coupon you can get a discount on one of
  • 00:13:47
    two trips you're going to take in the
  • 00:13:48
    next weeks you're going to use it for
  • 00:13:50
    one or the other not both there's no
  • 00:13:52
    other trip you can use it for you can
  • 00:13:54
    either save $90 on your $200 trip to
  • 00:13:57
    Chicago or100 $ on your $2,000 trip to
  • 00:14:01
    Tokyo which one should you use it for
  • 00:14:04
    and everybody gets it right they all say
  • 00:14:06
    correctly that you should use it to save
  • 00:14:08
    $100 because that's better than saving
  • 00:14:11
    $90 but it's not a waste of time to ask
  • 00:14:13
    the question it's another chance to sort
  • 00:14:15
    of flex that brain muscle and get it a
  • 00:14:17
    little bit more firmly cemented
  • 00:14:20
    in here's a nice application of the cost
  • 00:14:23
    benefit principle so my former student
  • 00:14:26
    Bill joah asked this question why why do
  • 00:14:29
    the drive up keypads on the the ATM
  • 00:14:32
    machines have Braille dots on them you
  • 00:14:33
    know you can't drive if you're blind why
  • 00:14:35
    do you need Braille dots on those
  • 00:14:36
    machines why bother and his his
  • 00:14:39
    explanation was that they're going to
  • 00:14:42
    make the machines with Braille dots on
  • 00:14:43
    the keypads for the walkup locations
  • 00:14:46
    anyway having made them why not make
  • 00:14:48
    them all the same way rather than keep
  • 00:14:50
    two separate inventories and worry about
  • 00:14:52
    which machines go to which destinations
  • 00:14:53
    it's just easier and cheaper to do it
  • 00:14:55
    that way so same benefit it doesn't
  • 00:14:58
    bother the driver D that they're there
  • 00:14:59
    nobody's inconvenienced by them and it's
  • 00:15:01
    cheaper so why not brail dots on
  • 00:15:04
    keypads here's the assignment I give
  • 00:15:06
    them and this is where I think 90% of
  • 00:15:08
    the learning in the course takes place
  • 00:15:10
    you have to show them the principles and
  • 00:15:12
    how they're how they're done but the
  • 00:15:13
    real uh progress takes place when they
  • 00:15:16
    try to pose these questions and answer
  • 00:15:18
    them so the assignment uh is really
  • 00:15:21
    inspired by the field biologists
  • 00:15:24
    approach if you if you've had a biology
  • 00:15:25
    course you know you can go out in the in
  • 00:15:27
    the wild and see things that never
  • 00:15:29
    noticed before there's suddenly
  • 00:15:30
    interesting textures and patterns in the
  • 00:15:32
    landscape that just escaped your notice
  • 00:15:34
    before that so if you watch animals uh
  • 00:15:38
    and you've had a darwinian Evolution
  • 00:15:39
    course then there's a a very uh
  • 00:15:42
    interesting pattern that you'll see
  • 00:15:43
    which is that in vertebrate species the
  • 00:15:45
    males are almost always bigger and more
  • 00:15:46
    colorful than the females why is that
  • 00:15:49
    well Darwin had a nice uh concise answer
  • 00:15:52
    that's the bull elephant seal you can go
  • 00:15:54
    down to the Ana noo preserve uh south of
  • 00:15:58
    here and see the in the winter time the
  • 00:16:00
    bull weighs 6,000 lb 23 ft long bigger
  • 00:16:03
    than a Lincoln Navigator SUV this animal
  • 00:16:06
    the cow 8 to 1200 lb they have to mate
  • 00:16:09
    side by side or else the bull will crush
  • 00:16:11
    her to death uh in in the act of mating
  • 00:16:13
    why is the bull so much bigger than the
  • 00:16:16
    cow Darwin's theory was that in
  • 00:16:19
    vertebrate species you see mostly
  • 00:16:21
    polygynous species that means males take
  • 00:16:23
    more than one mate if they can you
  • 00:16:26
    stress if they can because if some males
  • 00:16:28
    take more than one mate that means other
  • 00:16:30
    males aren't going to get any mates at
  • 00:16:32
    all and so it's a huge win or take all
  • 00:16:34
    contest to see who gets mates and they
  • 00:16:36
    Square Off on the beach and they battle
  • 00:16:39
    until one of them Lumbers off bloodied
  • 00:16:40
    and exhausted four or five hours later
  • 00:16:43
    and the winter claims a huge prize in
  • 00:16:45
    the darwinian scheme it's it's 50 to 100
  • 00:16:48
    females every one of them are going to
  • 00:16:50
    carry his jeans for larger body size
  • 00:16:54
    which were what uh helped him win the
  • 00:16:56
    fight with the other would be dominant
  • 00:16:58
    male
  • 00:16:59
    it's bad for the seals as a group to be
  • 00:17:01
    so big they'd be all of them better off
  • 00:17:03
    they weigh half as much they're much
  • 00:17:04
    more vulnerable to Predators they have
  • 00:17:06
    arthritis at a younger age they have to
  • 00:17:08
    their workday is very honorous they have
  • 00:17:10
    to eat way more fish than they would if
  • 00:17:12
    they were smaller but for any individual
  • 00:17:14
    male to be smaller that would be a
  • 00:17:16
    disaster so it's a it's an interesting
  • 00:17:19
    theory that sort of pops into your mind
  • 00:17:21
    if you've got some background principles
  • 00:17:23
    you see things that make sense to you
  • 00:17:25
    and you learn the principles a lot more
  • 00:17:26
    effectively by seeing them in action
  • 00:17:28
    it's everywhere you know so in pous
  • 00:17:31
    species the the elk have way broader
  • 00:17:33
    antlers than would make sense for Elk as
  • 00:17:35
    a group to have when they're chased into
  • 00:17:37
    a Woods they're they're dead meat
  • 00:17:39
    they're surrounded and killed easily by
  • 00:17:41
    Wolves but if a male had smaller antlers
  • 00:17:44
    than other males he wouldn't end up
  • 00:17:46
    having a crack at being the dominant
  • 00:17:48
    male and so the genes for his smaller
  • 00:17:51
    antlers would die with him that's the
  • 00:17:53
    sort of the ultimate loser category in
  • 00:17:55
    the darwinian scheme
  • 00:17:59
    it's a it's a useful Theory uh and if if
  • 00:18:01
    you're willing to think about this kind
  • 00:18:04
    of theory in scientific terms the the
  • 00:18:06
    the test is to look for circumstances
  • 00:18:09
    where the theory doesn't apply uh people
  • 00:18:11
    I think mostly use the Expression the
  • 00:18:14
    exception that proves the rule
  • 00:18:15
    incorrectly they they've got some Theory
  • 00:18:17
    somebody points out a counter example
  • 00:18:20
    and they dismiss it saying oh that's the
  • 00:18:21
    exception that proves the rule well how
  • 00:18:23
    exactly does that prove the rule it
  • 00:18:25
    seems like it disproves the rule and
  • 00:18:26
    you're Sliding Away from the the uncover
  • 00:18:28
    comtable fact of that I think the the
  • 00:18:30
    correct understanding or at least the
  • 00:18:32
    one that makes sense to me of the
  • 00:18:34
    expression is that uh it it refers to
  • 00:18:37
    the older sense of the verb to prove
  • 00:18:39
    which means to test it's the exception
  • 00:18:40
    that tests the rule so you look at a
  • 00:18:42
    species that's not polygynous a
  • 00:18:44
    monogamous species like the albatross
  • 00:18:47
    the prediction there is not that males
  • 00:18:48
    will be bigger there's no reason for
  • 00:18:50
    them to be they're not fighting for
  • 00:18:51
    Access and so in fact in the albatross
  • 00:18:54
    and in other monogamous species it's
  • 00:18:56
    typically very hard to tell the males
  • 00:18:57
    from the females they're about the same
  • 00:18:59
    size and
  • 00:19:01
    color this is these are all examples of
  • 00:19:04
    what's come to be called The Narrative
  • 00:19:05
    theory of learning you know there these
  • 00:19:07
    are there stories they there actors in
  • 00:19:09
    them there's a plot the human brain
  • 00:19:12
    absorbs narrative like a water sponge
  • 00:19:16
    gets sucked up uh water sucks up uh uh
  • 00:19:19
    into a sponge it's just like a key
  • 00:19:21
    sliding into a lock there's no swimming
  • 00:19:23
    Upstream if you're trying to get a
  • 00:19:24
    narrative into the human human brain
  • 00:19:26
    that's how we evolved as storytellers we
  • 00:19:28
    didn't Squat and draw equations in the
  • 00:19:31
    dirt with a twig it was you know you
  • 00:19:32
    told your your your story to someone and
  • 00:19:36
    that's how it got across and that's just
  • 00:19:39
    the easiest way for people to absorb
  • 00:19:41
    information and if if you can get it
  • 00:19:43
    into a narrative uh why not take
  • 00:19:45
    advantage of that natural strength of
  • 00:19:47
    the human brain jome Bruner says that if
  • 00:19:49
    a kid doesn't catch an experience in
  • 00:19:51
    narrative form it's lost forever the
  • 00:19:53
    kids who do uh manage to tell a story
  • 00:19:56
    about an experience can uh re uh access
  • 00:19:59
    that experience multiple times mull it
  • 00:20:01
    over learn from it if you don't catch it
  • 00:20:03
    that way it's lost forever students
  • 00:20:05
    aren't so different from children adults
  • 00:20:07
    aren't so different from students you
  • 00:20:09
    know this goes all the way up the chain
  • 00:20:11
    I tell my students they have to do two
  • 00:20:13
    of these a semester one at midterm one
  • 00:20:16
    at uh the end of the term their question
  • 00:20:19
    has to be interesting I tell them if I
  • 00:20:20
    if I don't think your question's
  • 00:20:22
    interesting why on Earth would I want to
  • 00:20:23
    read your answer to it uh don't ask why
  • 00:20:27
    do we order out for pizza when we're
  • 00:20:28
    tired uh yeah well because it's too
  • 00:20:31
    costly to cook when you're yeah that's
  • 00:20:33
    true but it's not interesting so they
  • 00:20:36
    have a hard time the first uh round
  • 00:20:38
    coming up with an interesting question
  • 00:20:40
    many of them they come by oh is this
  • 00:20:41
    question interesting enough and often
  • 00:20:43
    times the question isn't interesting but
  • 00:20:44
    they're smart kids and they think about
  • 00:20:47
    lots of questions to come up with an
  • 00:20:48
    interesting one and uh the the really
  • 00:20:51
    best ones truly are interesting uh and I
  • 00:20:54
    say that it's good to have an
  • 00:20:55
    interesting question because then you're
  • 00:20:56
    going to want to work harder to come up
  • 00:20:57
    with an answer to to it but mainly
  • 00:21:00
    because when somebody hears your
  • 00:21:01
    question he'll want to repeat it to
  • 00:21:03
    someone else and it's each retelling of
  • 00:21:06
    the story that gets the idea more firmly
  • 00:21:08
    rooted in the brain that's I think the
  • 00:21:10
    the really deep beauty of this
  • 00:21:12
    assignment I think my all-time favorite
  • 00:21:14
    submission was by Jen doski I'm going to
  • 00:21:17
    see see her at dinner tonight uh she and
  • 00:21:19
    her husband were my students uh in 1997
  • 00:21:21
    she had gotten married about 6 months
  • 00:21:23
    earlier she wanted to know why Brides
  • 00:21:26
    who know they'll never wear their
  • 00:21:27
    wedding dress again spend thousands of
  • 00:21:29
    dollars on it while Grooms who have
  • 00:21:31
    scores of opportunities to wear Tux in
  • 00:21:33
    the future rent a cheap
  • 00:21:35
    one it's it's a great question because
  • 00:21:38
    it seems on the surface that it should
  • 00:21:39
    be just the other way around uh you're
  • 00:21:42
    you're never going to wear the dress
  • 00:21:43
    again rent rent the thing you know if
  • 00:21:46
    you're going to have a suit you're going
  • 00:21:47
    to wear many times you know get
  • 00:21:49
    one her answer began with what some
  • 00:21:52
    people think is a strong assumption but
  • 00:21:54
    no one's ever said it seemed
  • 00:21:55
    unreasonable it was that in in most
  • 00:21:59
    societies on big occasions it's more
  • 00:22:01
    important for a woman to make a fashion
  • 00:22:03
    statement than for a man no one's ever
  • 00:22:05
    come up after I've discussed this
  • 00:22:07
    example no that's not the way it is
  • 00:22:09
    around here uh if you'll and you can you
  • 00:22:11
    can get that assumption from some
  • 00:22:13
    biological reasoning in monogamous or
  • 00:22:16
    largely monogamous species though
  • 00:22:18
    there's a lot more ornamentation on the
  • 00:22:19
    female than than the male so if you
  • 00:22:22
    start with that then uh it's a matter of
  • 00:22:23
    simple economics of the rental business
  • 00:22:25
    you'd need a 100 or so gowns in each
  • 00:22:27
    size to enable a bride to make a fashion
  • 00:22:29
    statement they would rent out every 8
  • 00:22:32
    nine 10 years the cost of carrying that
  • 00:22:34
    inventory would mean the the rental fee
  • 00:22:36
    would be I don't know 110% of the
  • 00:22:37
    purchase price just to cover their cost
  • 00:22:40
    who would rent for 110 when you could
  • 00:22:42
    buy for 100 so that that's essentially a
  • 00:22:44
    nonviable business maybe there will be
  • 00:22:46
    an internet rental gown business that
  • 00:22:48
    Springs up that's what you'd predict
  • 00:22:49
    from the long tail Theory but so far
  • 00:22:51
    mainly it's been Brides By if you're a
  • 00:22:54
    guy and you don't care that you wear the
  • 00:22:55
    same suit everyone else wears then the
  • 00:22:57
    companies can hold two or three suits in
  • 00:22:59
    inventory they'll they'll turn over
  • 00:23:01
    rapidly eight or nine times a year and
  • 00:23:03
    you can rent one for a quarter of the
  • 00:23:04
    purchase price you can save a few bucks
  • 00:23:07
    on a time when uh cash is tight and so
  • 00:23:09
    many men do
  • 00:23:11
    that why are child safety seats required
  • 00:23:15
    in cars you drive to the supermarket
  • 00:23:17
    three blocks away they'll ticket you in
  • 00:23:19
    Ithaca if you don't have your kid
  • 00:23:20
    strapped into one you can get on a
  • 00:23:22
    flight at fso and fly to New York with
  • 00:23:25
    your kid sitting loose on your
  • 00:23:27
    lap why that
  • 00:23:29
    distinction a lot of people say well
  • 00:23:31
    it's because if the plane goes down
  • 00:23:33
    doesn't matter whether you're strapped
  • 00:23:34
    in so uh you
  • 00:23:37
    know fine but that's mainly not why you
  • 00:23:40
    have seat belts is in the event of a
  • 00:23:42
    crash you are probably going to die if
  • 00:23:43
    the plane crashes it's because there's
  • 00:23:45
    turbulence or there's other unor events
  • 00:23:48
    uh in in in flying and being strapped in
  • 00:23:50
    really does help as much as being
  • 00:23:52
    strapped in a seat Bel in a car helps
  • 00:23:54
    and crashes and so why is it that they
  • 00:23:57
    don't make you strap your k kid in uh
  • 00:23:59
    the benefit side's Not So Different Mr
  • 00:24:01
    ballot reason he said there's a big
  • 00:24:03
    difference on the cost side if you've
  • 00:24:04
    got room in your back seat it's
  • 00:24:06
    essentially free to strap your kid in uh
  • 00:24:08
    to a safety seat if you're on a full
  • 00:24:10
    flight to New York you're talking about
  • 00:24:12
    an extra seat which might cost a, bucks
  • 00:24:15
    so nobody wants to say you know it's too
  • 00:24:18
    expensive to keep you safe on this trip
  • 00:24:19
    kid so we're just going to hope for the
  • 00:24:21
    best but basically you know costs and
  • 00:24:23
    benefits are are in the mix when people
  • 00:24:25
    make decisions about health and safety
  • 00:24:27
    just like anything else Carol H wanted
  • 00:24:30
    to know why you have to pay more if you
  • 00:24:32
    start in Honolulu and FL fly round trip
  • 00:24:35
    to Kansas City than if you do the trip
  • 00:24:37
    the other way around same plane same
  • 00:24:41
    everything she argued that if you're
  • 00:24:43
    starting in Kansas City going to
  • 00:24:45
    Honolulu you're probably going on
  • 00:24:47
    vacation there are lots of places you
  • 00:24:48
    could go if they don't offer you a good
  • 00:24:50
    Fair you'll go somewhere else if you're
  • 00:24:52
    starting in Honolulu going to Kansas
  • 00:24:55
    City you're probably not going on
  • 00:24:57
    vacation uh
  • 00:24:59
    you're probably going to see family or
  • 00:25:01
    personal business something uh you're
  • 00:25:02
    you're not choosing among destinations
  • 00:25:04
    you're more of a captive customer it's a
  • 00:25:06
    nice simple
  • 00:25:09
    explanation here's one of my longtime
  • 00:25:11
    favorites it may not even be uh a fact
  • 00:25:14
    uh in the world I've heard the story
  • 00:25:16
    many times so it might might be a fact
  • 00:25:18
    but the interesting thing is it it could
  • 00:25:20
    be a fact and it wouldn't be mysterious
  • 00:25:22
    so the the the rumor always was that
  • 00:25:24
    before the scratch and dent sail seers
  • 00:25:26
    would send clerks out to the warehouse
  • 00:25:28
    with ball pen hammers to Dent up some
  • 00:25:30
    more stoves and refrigerators they were
  • 00:25:31
    going to run out the next morning uh it
  • 00:25:33
    used it started off this sale because
  • 00:25:35
    appliances would get damaged in transit
  • 00:25:38
    and so they would want to have uh a
  • 00:25:40
    stock on uh on hand to to put on sale uh
  • 00:25:44
    periodically rather than send them back
  • 00:25:45
    to be be fixed it was just cheaper uh to
  • 00:25:48
    to sell them at a cheap price but the
  • 00:25:49
    sale was so successful that it's become
  • 00:25:52
    what I call an example of the hurdle
  • 00:25:53
    model of price discrimination you want
  • 00:25:56
    to give the buyer who cares about price
  • 00:25:58
    who won't buy at a high price a discount
  • 00:26:00
    but you don't want to make that discount
  • 00:26:02
    available to the people who would pay
  • 00:26:04
    the high price so what do you do you put
  • 00:26:06
    a hurdle in the buyer's path and say all
  • 00:26:09
    right if you want to jump that hurdle
  • 00:26:10
    we'll sell it to you on the cheap you
  • 00:26:12
    don't want to jump the hurdle fine paid
  • 00:26:14
    list price that's here's an exercise go
  • 00:26:17
    out and look at the products you buy try
  • 00:26:19
    to find examples of ones that don't
  • 00:26:21
    offer you that option it's very rare
  • 00:26:23
    there are some but it's very rare to see
  • 00:26:24
    a product that doesn't give you the
  • 00:26:26
    option of a rebate coupon or a temporary
  • 00:26:28
    sale every once in a while here the
  • 00:26:30
    hurdle is there are three hurdles you
  • 00:26:31
    got to find out when it is clear your
  • 00:26:33
    schedule get there on that day and then
  • 00:26:35
    live with the knowledge that there's a
  • 00:26:37
    dent in your refrigerator that wouldn't
  • 00:26:39
    bother me especially it's going to be up
  • 00:26:41
    against the wall no one will see it but
  • 00:26:43
    some people well we don't have to have a
  • 00:26:46
    refrigerator with a dent that's not the
  • 00:26:47
    kind of people we are uh so it's a good
  • 00:26:49
    and those are the people who are willing
  • 00:26:51
    to pay list price it's a great device it
  • 00:26:53
    turned out to
  • 00:26:54
    be the tux Finds Its way into lots of my
  • 00:26:58
    students examples this is another I
  • 00:27:00
    think you know very good qu the the good
  • 00:27:02
    questions have this twist to them it
  • 00:27:04
    seem yeah why is that you know it should
  • 00:27:05
    be the other way around you got a
  • 00:27:06
    $20,000 car you rent it for 40 bucks a
  • 00:27:09
    day $500 uh for
  • 00:27:13
    uh for 90 bucks a day a car uh 20,000
  • 00:27:17
    bucks 40 bucks a day what's going on
  • 00:27:19
    here it seems like it it shouldn't be
  • 00:27:20
    that way I like this one uh my wife
  • 00:27:23
    asked me we were visiting Boston and
  • 00:27:25
    we're going going through uh Quincy
  • 00:27:27
    Market there was a a doall that had one
  • 00:27:29
    of these signs why do they have those
  • 00:27:30
    signs I could tell her that a student
  • 00:27:32
    just turned this one in uh a few weeks
  • 00:27:34
    ago and it's that the cashier if she
  • 00:27:36
    doesn't ring the sale up can pocket the
  • 00:27:38
    money and uh be out of there at the end
  • 00:27:40
    of the day there's no way to reconcile
  • 00:27:42
    the inventory in the back with what goes
  • 00:27:44
    through each
  • 00:27:45
    register the owner could hire people to
  • 00:27:47
    stand there and watch the cashier it's
  • 00:27:49
    just much cheaper to say to the customer
  • 00:27:52
    you get a free meal if it's not rung up
  • 00:27:54
    because once it's rung up then the
  • 00:27:55
    cashier is responsible for the cash in
  • 00:27:57
    the drawer to what went out across the
  • 00:28:00
    counter at her
  • 00:28:01
    register very simple application of the
  • 00:28:04
    cost benefit
  • 00:28:06
    reasoning that's jezelle bunin depending
  • 00:28:09
    on which source you read she either
  • 00:28:10
    earned $30 million last year or $15
  • 00:28:12
    million last year anyway there's no mail
  • 00:28:15
    model I could find last year that earned
  • 00:28:16
    even a million dollars last year why the
  • 00:28:19
    huge
  • 00:28:21
    difference there's some uh reason to
  • 00:28:23
    think blondes are smarter than brunettes
  • 00:28:26
    uh uh there's better evidence that
  • 00:28:28
    athletes are are smarter than
  • 00:28:30
    non-athletes uh if you look at the the
  • 00:28:33
    the correct random sample of the
  • 00:28:34
    population why are there so many jokes
  • 00:28:36
    about dumb jocks and dumb blonds it's an
  • 00:28:38
    interesting question uh what's going on
  • 00:28:42
    there
  • 00:28:44
    grasos fatos one of my favorite
  • 00:28:47
    questions uh the Broadway theaters will
  • 00:28:49
    sell you a half price ticket at the last
  • 00:28:50
    minute you want to buy an airline ticket
  • 00:28:52
    at the last minute you pay double or
  • 00:28:54
    triple interesting it's the same
  • 00:28:57
    perishable seat in both cases if you
  • 00:28:59
    don't sell it it's going to be lost
  • 00:29:00
    forever why do they take such a
  • 00:29:02
    different approach in the two
  • 00:29:05
    cases I've got a chapter in the book
  • 00:29:07
    psychology meets economics talking about
  • 00:29:10
    some of the limitations of the cost
  • 00:29:11
    benefit model uh so you could say well
  • 00:29:14
    maybe the pilots are going to have tur
  • 00:29:15
    hit turbulence you want them to get
  • 00:29:17
    there safely uh or or maybe they won't
  • 00:29:19
    be able to find the target you want them
  • 00:29:20
    to come back you know none of the cost
  • 00:29:22
    benefit models sound that
  • 00:29:24
    plausible but the Kami Kazi Pilots were
  • 00:29:27
    pilots first and foremost they weren't
  • 00:29:29
    bus drivers selected to fly these
  • 00:29:31
    missions and pilots wear helmets that's
  • 00:29:33
    what pilots do so that's that's maybe a
  • 00:29:35
    better explanation than the cost benefit
  • 00:29:39
    explanations everybody ma males in
  • 00:29:42
    particular think oh polygamy that'd be a
  • 00:29:44
    great deal they think wow I could have
  • 00:29:45
    three wives they don't
  • 00:29:47
    think of the downside but if it's such a
  • 00:29:51
    great thing for males why do the male
  • 00:29:53
    legislators typically make it illegal uh
  • 00:29:56
    it's against the law you can't have
  • 00:29:57
    three wives uh the Big Love series sort
  • 00:30:00
    of documents the The Life and Times of a
  • 00:30:03
    typically successful attractive male
  • 00:30:06
    who's managed to uh land three
  • 00:30:10
    uh you know very very desirable females
  • 00:30:13
    what what goes on in the background is
  • 00:30:15
    the other part of the math if you got
  • 00:30:17
    10% of the men with three males with
  • 00:30:19
    three three mates each that means that
  • 00:30:22
    in the rest of the population there's
  • 00:30:24
    going to be nine men for every seven
  • 00:30:26
    women so imagine that you're the modal
  • 00:30:30
    man one of the the the guys who doesn't
  • 00:30:32
    get three mates you're going to be
  • 00:30:34
    searching in a pool where there's nine
  • 00:30:36
    of you for every seven of them and
  • 00:30:38
    supply and demand work much more
  • 00:30:40
    forcefully in the relationship Market
  • 00:30:42
    than in many other markets the terms of
  • 00:30:44
    trade would shift sharply against men
  • 00:30:47
    under the circumstances so you need to
  • 00:30:49
    work on your abs for an hour a day now
  • 00:30:51
    uh well maybe two hours a day under a
  • 00:30:55
    polygamy law or or uh maybe two dozen
  • 00:30:58
    roses not a dozen roses it would just
  • 00:31:00
    get a lot tougher for males the same way
  • 00:31:02
    it is for the bull elephant seals you
  • 00:31:03
    got to be 6,000 lb to be a player uh
  • 00:31:07
    better to avoid that arms race uh okay
  • 00:31:10
    uh Rick I'm gonna ask how we're doing
  • 00:31:12
    for time I don't want to Short change
  • 00:31:13
    the question period we've got uh 20
  • 00:31:16
    minutes or so I've got uh uh there
  • 00:31:18
    there's a a collection of slides I left
  • 00:31:20
    for the last that sort of highlight this
  • 00:31:22
    distinction between what's attractive to
  • 00:31:25
    the individual actor and one why uh the
  • 00:31:29
    rational individual Choice often adds up
  • 00:31:31
    to an outcome that's not very attractive
  • 00:31:33
    for the group as a whole I can talk
  • 00:31:36
    about those quickly and then take
  • 00:31:37
    questions or we can skip
  • 00:31:39
    that I'll go through that okay uh I've
  • 00:31:42
    got another book just out uh called
  • 00:31:44
    falling behind and uh these themes are
  • 00:31:48
    more fully explored uh in this book but
  • 00:31:50
    they're also there's a chapter devoted
  • 00:31:52
    to them in the economic
  • 00:31:55
    naturalist So Adam Smith uh he thought
  • 00:31:59
    uh or his modern day Defenders at any
  • 00:32:01
    rate say he thought that if you just
  • 00:32:03
    turn people loose and tell them to do
  • 00:32:04
    whatever they want you'll get great
  • 00:32:06
    results Smith didn't think that uh he's
  • 00:32:09
    been way oversold by some of his modern
  • 00:32:11
    disciples uh what he did say was that if
  • 00:32:14
    you turn individuals loose and tell them
  • 00:32:16
    to do what they want you'll often get
  • 00:32:18
    surprisingly good results so you know
  • 00:32:21
    the the the contest among producers to
  • 00:32:23
    come up with cost-saving ideas to
  • 00:32:26
    increase their market share eventually
  • 00:32:27
    that all redounds to the consumer in the
  • 00:32:29
    form of lower prices it's amazing nobody
  • 00:32:31
    had that story clearly in mind before
  • 00:32:33
    Smith wrote about it but he was very
  • 00:32:35
    well aware that you don't always get
  • 00:32:38
    good results when the individuals uh
  • 00:32:40
    battle with one another for for Market
  • 00:32:42
    Supremacy and Darwin in particular uh
  • 00:32:45
    who was influenced very clearly by Smith
  • 00:32:47
    Never Thought competition among
  • 00:32:49
    individual animals produced the greater
  • 00:32:51
    good for the species sometimes it did
  • 00:32:53
    but often times it didn't so that's the
  • 00:32:55
    example of the bo elepant SE seal and
  • 00:32:58
    the elk and so if you'll think about the
  • 00:33:01
    many aspects in life that resemble a
  • 00:33:04
    contest uh uh a whole host of important
  • 00:33:07
    aspects of Life are graded on the curve
  • 00:33:09
    there's just no way to describe it than
  • 00:33:11
    that it's not how well you do it's how
  • 00:33:13
    well you do compared to the people
  • 00:33:15
    you're competing with that determines
  • 00:33:17
    whether you're going to get a
  • 00:33:18
    satisfactory reward by your lights so uh
  • 00:33:22
    it's a commonplace idea you know so the
  • 00:33:24
    context influences the kind of gifts you
  • 00:33:26
    have to give uh you have to give a dozen
  • 00:33:29
    roses to show your wife you love her in
  • 00:33:31
    a rich Society a rose will do said
  • 00:33:33
    Richard
  • 00:33:35
    lar in contest typically you get an arms
  • 00:33:38
    race as the contestants try to position
  • 00:33:40
    themselves to win and the the
  • 00:33:42
    investments in performance enhance
  • 00:33:44
    enhancement often do good things but
  • 00:33:46
    they almost always go too far and the
  • 00:33:49
    organizers of every contest figure out
  • 00:33:52
    ways to try and limit the investments in
  • 00:33:55
    positioning by the contestants just in
  • 00:33:57
    the mutual interest of all all the
  • 00:33:58
    competitors and so there's a lot of
  • 00:34:01
    regulations out there that I think don't
  • 00:34:02
    make sense except when seen through this
  • 00:34:04
    lens so how do we interpret regulations
  • 00:34:07
    uh I think if they're common in a lot of
  • 00:34:09
    settings the the most parsimonious way
  • 00:34:12
    to think about is well what are these
  • 00:34:13
    regulations trying to achieve exactly
  • 00:34:16
    what are they trying to keep us from
  • 00:34:17
    doing that we would do if they weren't
  • 00:34:19
    there and why is what we would do on our
  • 00:34:21
    own bat here's a nice example from Tom
  • 00:34:24
    shelling he wanted to know why is it
  • 00:34:27
    that hockey players will vote
  • 00:34:29
    unanimously in a secret ballot to
  • 00:34:31
    require helmets yet when they're given
  • 00:34:33
    the choice on their own never wear them
  • 00:34:36
    this experiment's been done many times
  • 00:34:39
    any League that doesn't have a helmet
  • 00:34:40
    rule very quickly no one wears a helmet
  • 00:34:43
    goalies didn't used to wear helmets uh
  • 00:34:45
    if you can imagine uh in in the NHL they
  • 00:34:47
    were horribly disfigured by the time
  • 00:34:51
    they'd been in the league for a few
  • 00:34:52
    years but but basically there's a
  • 00:34:54
    individual competitive Advantage if you
  • 00:34:56
    don't wear helmet you can see and hear
  • 00:34:58
    better maybe you're better able to
  • 00:35:00
    intimidate your opponent and so that's a
  • 00:35:02
    reason for an individual to find it
  • 00:35:03
    attractive to skate without a helmet the
  • 00:35:06
    obvious complication is that if I can
  • 00:35:07
    skate without one so can you then we all
  • 00:35:10
    skate without them and 50% of the teams
  • 00:35:12
    win 50% of the teams lose the same as if
  • 00:35:14
    we all wore helmets so obviously rather
  • 00:35:17
    than all take a greater risk of being
  • 00:35:19
    injured better to have everybody forced
  • 00:35:21
    to wear helmet so it's sort of an
  • 00:35:23
    interesting take on the concept of
  • 00:35:24
    individual liberty nobody would complain
  • 00:35:27
    about a military Arms Control agreement
  • 00:35:29
    that it limits the signatory's ability
  • 00:35:32
    to do what they please that was the
  • 00:35:33
    whole point of
  • 00:35:34
    it well does this regulation violate the
  • 00:35:37
    hockey player's Freedom it doesn't seem
  • 00:35:39
    to me a coherent charge that's what the
  • 00:35:41
    hockey player was trying to do he didn't
  • 00:35:43
    want to be free to skate without a
  • 00:35:45
    helmet because he knew he would have to
  • 00:35:46
    in that
  • 00:35:47
    case there were rules governing duels
  • 00:35:50
    thank heavens we don't have to have duel
  • 00:35:52
    anymore we've got an even stronger Rule
  • 00:35:54
    now it says it's against the law to duel
  • 00:35:56
    you want to duel I would love to but uh
  • 00:35:59
    we can't it's against the law have your
  • 00:36:00
    guy call my guy in the old days if you
  • 00:36:03
    offended somebody he would challenge you
  • 00:36:05
    to a duel you'd have to show up at dawn
  • 00:36:07
    with the weapons specified and there
  • 00:36:09
    were very tight rules about what the
  • 00:36:11
    weapons could look like they could fire
  • 00:36:13
    only a single shot they couldn't have
  • 00:36:15
    spiral scoring on the the barrels the
  • 00:36:18
    whole point of which was to make the the
  • 00:36:20
    bullet come out with a spin and be more
  • 00:36:22
    accurate so it would go like a Bart uh I
  • 00:36:25
    mean a a a Brett far uh pass it would be
  • 00:36:28
    a nice tight trajectory to the Target
  • 00:36:31
    they didn't want that they wanted to
  • 00:36:32
    come out floating and and dancing like a
  • 00:36:35
    knuckleball so they'd miss that was
  • 00:36:37
    their aim in these rules they didn't
  • 00:36:39
    want multiple shot weapons you know
  • 00:36:41
    think about a duel you know you're going
  • 00:36:43
    to take take some Paces turn and fire
  • 00:36:45
    you're both going to go down for sure if
  • 00:36:47
    you have multi-shot weapons one shot
  • 00:36:49
    that was the
  • 00:36:50
    rule limiting investment in performance
  • 00:36:53
    enhancement that's the only sensible
  • 00:36:55
    interpretation of these kinds of rules
  • 00:36:58
    if you're if you're uh thinking about
  • 00:37:00
    when to have your kids start
  • 00:37:01
    kindergarten uh everyone else is
  • 00:37:03
    starting at 6 I'm considering holding my
  • 00:37:06
    boy back till 7 what are the what are
  • 00:37:09
    the benefits and costs well he'll get
  • 00:37:10
    out of school a year later that's no big
  • 00:37:12
    deal but while he's in school he'll be
  • 00:37:15
    bigger stronger smarter more socially
  • 00:37:17
    mature than the the kids he's in class
  • 00:37:20
    with and since school of all places we
  • 00:37:22
    know is graded on the curve he's going
  • 00:37:24
    to be more likely to get into Stanford
  • 00:37:25
    when the time comes if I hold him back
  • 00:37:27
    the rub I hold mine back you hold yours
  • 00:37:30
    back then we've got seven-year-old
  • 00:37:32
    kindergarteners then 8-year-old
  • 00:37:34
    kindergarteners how far does it go
  • 00:37:35
    doesn't go forever you wouldn't see
  • 00:37:36
    40-year-old kindergarteners just like
  • 00:37:39
    you don't see 50,000 PB bull elephant
  • 00:37:41
    seals but they can't regulate that arms
  • 00:37:43
    race we can and we do we say if we don't
  • 00:37:47
    have a a mandatory start date for
  • 00:37:49
    kindergarten we get kids starting
  • 00:37:51
    kindergarten at some Advanced age that
  • 00:37:53
    doesn't serve the social purpose it's
  • 00:37:55
    not a sensible scheme so if your kid
  • 00:37:57
    turn six this year he's got to go to
  • 00:37:59
    kindergarten this year unless you hire a
  • 00:38:02
    bevy of of doctors to claim he's not
  • 00:38:05
    ready I'll show you one last
  • 00:38:08
    example the way we talk to each other is
  • 00:38:11
    influenced by these kinds of context
  • 00:38:14
    effect so if you think about formalism
  • 00:38:16
    in economics you're always better off to
  • 00:38:18
    be the more rigorous of two economists
  • 00:38:20
    if you're looking for a
  • 00:38:22
    job all right I can do rigor you can do
  • 00:38:24
    rigor so you do more rigor than me I'll
  • 00:38:27
    have to that if I want to stay
  • 00:38:28
    competitive and so this is a typical
  • 00:38:31
    paragraph in an economics Journal nobody
  • 00:38:33
    looks forward to taking it home to read
  • 00:38:34
    it uh it it's rational for the
  • 00:38:37
    individual Economist not rational for
  • 00:38:40
    Economist as a group perhaps it's not to
  • 00:38:42
    say formal analysis isn't useful it's
  • 00:38:45
    just what's the optimal level of
  • 00:38:48
    formalism and this is truly the last one
  • 00:38:50
    I'll show you I was in a a seminar uh
  • 00:38:54
    with social scientists and humanists the
  • 00:38:56
    humanists would assign readings as we
  • 00:38:59
    would and be a discussion leader I
  • 00:39:00
    thought wow this will be interesting to
  • 00:39:02
    see what they think there was an article
  • 00:39:04
    by Maria lugones called tactical
  • 00:39:07
    strategies of the street walker I
  • 00:39:08
    couldn't wait to read it but then I got
  • 00:39:11
    into it and this is a typical paragraph
  • 00:39:13
    from it I propose to embrace tactical
  • 00:39:16
    strategies in moving and disruption of
  • 00:39:18
    the dichotomy as crucial to an
  • 00:39:19
    epistemology of resistance Liberation to
  • 00:39:23
    do so is to give uptake to the
  • 00:39:24
    disaggregation of collectivity
  • 00:39:26
    concomitant with social fragmentation
  • 00:39:28
    and to theorize the navigation of its
  • 00:39:30
    perils without giving uptake to its
  • 00:39:34
    logic what what's going on here I have
  • 00:39:37
    no idea what that means uh a friend
  • 00:39:40
    friend of mine uh we we just hired him
  • 00:39:42
    uh from Stanford's uh business school to
  • 00:39:45
    come take a professorship at Cornell I
  • 00:39:48
    told him about this example he said show
  • 00:39:50
    show me that I've taken some Humanities
  • 00:39:51
    courses I'll tell you what it means and
  • 00:39:52
    he read it and he he looked up he read
  • 00:39:54
    it the second time said no he had no
  • 00:39:56
    idea I'm I'm guessing that uh at a time
  • 00:40:01
    when they were writing clear English uh
  • 00:40:03
    which we know was true uh not in the too
  • 00:40:06
    distant past somebody discovered that by
  • 00:40:08
    throwing in an unfamiliar word or phrase
  • 00:40:11
    she could seem more aidite than others
  • 00:40:13
    wow you know here's this word she knows
  • 00:40:15
    it I don't uh and so you you could score
  • 00:40:18
    points by doing that others could easily
  • 00:40:19
    mimic that strategy and so the the level
  • 00:40:22
    of obscure phrases and and locutions
  • 00:40:25
    started to escalate that's where it
  • 00:40:27
    seems to be now I is that the best thing
  • 00:40:30
    for the discipline as a whole I wouldn't
  • 00:40:32
    want them teaching my kids how to write
  • 00:40:34
    I don't think optimal for one is not the
  • 00:40:37
    same as optimal for all there's a very
  • 00:40:41
    clear distinction in many cases all
  • 00:40:43
    right I'll leave leave that slide uh on
  • 00:40:46
    the the board just because it seems to
  • 00:40:48
    be uh one that will be intelligible in
  • 00:40:51
    the
  • 00:40:52
    context I need 70,000 ft cuz he has
  • 00:40:55
    70,000 ft they'll think my business
  • 00:40:57
    isn't doing well if I have 50,000 ft so
  • 00:40:59
    we all need bigger but you know is
  • 00:41:02
    bigger really better uh it's a pain in
  • 00:41:04
    the neck to have 70,000 square feet I'll
  • 00:41:07
    take your questions if you have any
  • 00:41:08
    thanks thanks again uh Ricky for
  • 00:41:10
    inviting me to
  • 00:41:12
    [Applause]
  • 00:41:12
    [Music]
  • 00:41:14
    [Applause]
  • 00:41:23
    come he wants to pass a mic over so I'll
  • 00:41:26
    wait until you the M it's actually um
  • 00:41:29
    picking up on the the discourse thing um
  • 00:41:32
    one of the phenomenon I think is that as
  • 00:41:33
    more and more people become better
  • 00:41:34
    trained as economists they may decide
  • 00:41:37
    you know what I can really explain
  • 00:41:39
    everything through this nice flexible
  • 00:41:41
    language so I won't really think about
  • 00:41:43
    something called ethics anymore because
  • 00:41:45
    it's so squishy and hard to sort of get
  • 00:41:47
    the rigor so I'd just be curious your
  • 00:41:49
    sense of the effect of a more successful
  • 00:41:52
    education on things like how of ethical
  • 00:41:55
    discourse and you know we saw the begin
  • 00:41:57
    of the century the same thing with
  • 00:41:58
    science sort of driving out these things
  • 00:42:00
    I'm just sort of curious your thoughts
  • 00:42:01
    on it yeah uh so the question is uh has
  • 00:42:04
    formalism and economics sort of driven
  • 00:42:06
    out the more humanistic concerns the
  • 00:42:08
    ethical and Humane concerns uh which
  • 00:42:11
    were by the way once an integral part of
  • 00:42:13
    Economics Adam Smith's first book was a
  • 00:42:15
    theory of moral sentiments uh he was a
  • 00:42:18
    moral philosopher by training and uh you
  • 00:42:21
    know the the early economists were very
  • 00:42:23
    much steeped in moral philosophy and
  • 00:42:25
    there's I'm happy to report a Revival
  • 00:42:27
    interest in that subject uh I I
  • 00:42:29
    published a book in 2004 what price the
  • 00:42:31
    moral High Ground uh which is uh an
  • 00:42:34
    attempt to to bring economic analysis to
  • 00:42:37
    bear on uh ethical questions uh and and
  • 00:42:41
    the the economic model is one of the
  • 00:42:44
    main underpinnings of uh one of the main
  • 00:42:47
    branches of ethical Theory modern e
  • 00:42:49
    ethical Theory consequentialism uh it's
  • 00:42:52
    a theory that says the right choice is
  • 00:42:54
    the one that leads to the best
  • 00:42:55
    consequences overall and uh that's
  • 00:42:59
    essentially a cost benefit model of of
  • 00:43:01
    ethical reasoning and it's not a
  • 00:43:03
    self-interest model it's say if if if I
  • 00:43:05
    can take an action that'll cost me 10
  • 00:43:08
    but will benefit the community by by 20
  • 00:43:10
    then I ought to take it it's my ethical
  • 00:43:11
    duty to take it by that Reckoning so so
  • 00:43:14
    yeah economists have have gotten much
  • 00:43:15
    more interested in this and I I think
  • 00:43:17
    the formalism was not a a a good
  • 00:43:20
    development for that part of the
  • 00:43:22
    discipline but you know it's it's
  • 00:43:23
    Reviving now
  • 00:43:29
    uh it's great to have been able to hear
  • 00:43:31
    you speak I've been a big fan of yours
  • 00:43:33
    for a long time I thought the winner
  • 00:43:35
    take all Society was a great book and
  • 00:43:38
    I've been recommending it to people uh
  • 00:43:41
    should I continue to do so or has it
  • 00:43:43
    been superseded by uh your newer
  • 00:43:45
    [Laughter]
  • 00:43:48
    books so what's the natural scarcity
  • 00:43:51
    that would keep you from recommending
  • 00:43:53
    all these you became a professor I know
  • 00:43:55
    you're not self-interested
  • 00:43:57
    yeah so the question is uh should she
  • 00:44:00
    keep recommending winter take all
  • 00:44:03
    Society to her friends or are there
  • 00:44:04
    other newer books that that should be
  • 00:44:07
    recommended in place new books of yours
  • 00:44:09
    the the the falling behind book whose
  • 00:44:11
    cover I flashed up uh briefly is uh a
  • 00:44:16
    sort of a revisiting of issues that I
  • 00:44:18
    talked about in the follow-up book to
  • 00:44:21
    Winter take all soci which was titled
  • 00:44:22
    luxury fever this one's only 125 pages
  • 00:44:25
    long so if if the only reason I would
  • 00:44:28
    recommend only one book to someone is if
  • 00:44:29
    I thought well there's no chance that
  • 00:44:31
    person busy as she is is going to read
  • 00:44:33
    two books uh so recommend the shortest
  • 00:44:35
    one uh and that's that's falling
  • 00:44:38
    behind you don't even need to read the
  • 00:44:40
    whole thing you know it's a it's
  • 00:44:42
    repetitive at 125
  • 00:44:46
    Pages have you done the follow-up study
  • 00:44:48
    with your students of your more focused
  • 00:44:51
    economics Class A year later to see if
  • 00:44:53
    they actually pass the test now so the
  • 00:44:56
    question is have I done done any uh
  • 00:44:58
    thing to investigate whether this new
  • 00:45:00
    approach to teaching the introductory
  • 00:45:02
    course is more effective and it's a
  • 00:45:04
    great question I wish I had some data to
  • 00:45:06
    show you we're working now on test
  • 00:45:09
    questions that would meet uh the
  • 00:45:12
    consensus of the profession that yes if
  • 00:45:15
    they could answer those then we'd all
  • 00:45:16
    agree they they had learned what we
  • 00:45:17
    really care about once we've got those
  • 00:45:20
    then we will start administering them to
  • 00:45:21
    students who've taken the various kinds
  • 00:45:23
    of courses uh I have to say though that
  • 00:45:26
    the the we have to meet here is very low
  • 00:45:28
    you know the there's no measurable value
  • 00:45:30
    added from the course uh economists say
  • 00:45:33
    well if they take the intermediate
  • 00:45:34
    course then they'll they'll recognize
  • 00:45:37
    the concepts more quickly if they've had
  • 00:45:38
    the introductory course well yeah I get
  • 00:45:40
    guess that's probably true but if is
  • 00:45:42
    that enough to say you've added value uh
  • 00:45:45
    most students don't take the
  • 00:45:47
    intermediate course because they took
  • 00:45:48
    the introductory course felt like they
  • 00:45:50
    didn't learn anything and didn't want to
  • 00:45:51
    take the intermediate course so what I
  • 00:45:53
    can tell you is that students come back
  • 00:45:55
    for reunion and they come see me and
  • 00:45:57
    they uh they just want to say uh here's
  • 00:46:00
    some questions I've answered in the
  • 00:46:02
    years since so uh if you read the book I
  • 00:46:04
    think uh send me an email and and let me
  • 00:46:07
    know whether it had an effect on you
  • 00:46:09
    because so many people have said to me
  • 00:46:12
    that it was a transforming experience to
  • 00:46:15
    read the book that they everywhere they
  • 00:46:16
    go now they're seeing patterns and
  • 00:46:19
    trying to explain things uh th this is
  • 00:46:21
    such a fun book for me because I can
  • 00:46:23
    brag about it being so good since really
  • 00:46:25
    it's not so much my book is my students
  • 00:46:27
    book but but it I think the if you if
  • 00:46:30
    you go through enough examples you don't
  • 00:46:32
    need a course you just you just learn to
  • 00:46:35
    see the ideas at work in context and see
  • 00:46:38
    see if it doesn't have that effect on
  • 00:46:40
    you yeah I think it's a it's a fabulous
  • 00:46:43
    way to learn the subject you know you
  • 00:46:44
    you it's not painful it's it's just fun
  • 00:46:47
    to read about these
  • 00:46:49
    examples I just wanted to ask what's
  • 00:46:51
    been the reaction from your colleagues
  • 00:46:52
    you know in other universities have you
  • 00:46:54
    seen other professors uh start teaching
  • 00:46:57
    this
  • 00:47:00
    way the question is have others rushed
  • 00:47:02
    to adopt this wonderful new method of
  • 00:47:04
    instruction uh uh no they haven't rushed
  • 00:47:07
    to adopt it uh I Ben Bernan and I wrote
  • 00:47:10
    a book uh patterned on this VI vision of
  • 00:47:13
    the course and I told the publisher that
  • 00:47:16
    we were going to have to fight for every
  • 00:47:17
    adoption just because it was such a
  • 00:47:19
    different approach to the course and
  • 00:47:21
    nobody wants to start from scratch again
  • 00:47:24
    uh we have fought for every adoption but
  • 00:47:26
    we've seen the book grow sharply it's
  • 00:47:29
    going to be in its fourth edition coming
  • 00:47:30
    up and it's grown very sharply it's the
  • 00:47:32
    only book in the McGraw Hill stable
  • 00:47:35
    that's growing sharply uh in the last
  • 00:47:38
    decade or so and so uh I think uh in
  • 00:47:41
    time we'll we'll see a a Tipping Point
  • 00:47:43
    I'm hoping where everyone said oh yeah
  • 00:47:45
    sure we knew that was the way to do it
  • 00:47:46
    all along but but yeah it's been a b
  • 00:47:48
    it's been an uphill battle but we're
  • 00:47:50
    starting to see some nice results from
  • 00:47:52
    it
  • 00:47:58
    first of all thanks I'll I give my
  • 00:47:59
    daughter who's just struggled through
  • 00:48:01
    her first economics class and struggled
  • 00:48:04
    as I as I said I'll give her the book
  • 00:48:06
    it's just a trivial question really
  • 00:48:08
    about your bull um maybe it's a
  • 00:48:11
    biological question but it seems to me
  • 00:48:13
    that why wouldn't the females benefit
  • 00:48:16
    from those large male genes and they
  • 00:48:18
    themselves grow big just with the males
  • 00:48:21
    are are there really separate Gene you
  • 00:48:23
    know separate DNA for male weight and
  • 00:48:25
    female weight
  • 00:48:28
    the the question is why don't the female
  • 00:48:30
    elephant seals grow big too uh yeah that
  • 00:48:33
    that's a fairly common pattern uh in
  • 00:48:36
    vertebrate species that the females are
  • 00:48:38
    much smaller in fact you can tell how
  • 00:48:41
    polyus a species is by looking at the
  • 00:48:44
    extent of sexual dimorphism so so males
  • 00:48:46
    in human species are a little bigger
  • 00:48:48
    than females it's it's a very small
  • 00:48:50
    degree so that means we we're not
  • 00:48:52
    perfectly monogamous but you know we're
  • 00:48:53
    we're toward that end of the spectrum
  • 00:48:55
    there's just no advantage to a female
  • 00:48:57
    being bigger than her Rivals they don't
  • 00:49:00
    fight for access to males this is just
  • 00:49:02
    the basic reproductive asymmetry males
  • 00:49:05
    can sire indefinitely many offspring
  • 00:49:07
    females have a fixed capacity I let me
  • 00:49:10
    just ask it again but maybe I'm wrong
  • 00:49:12
    but it seems to me that the argument is
  • 00:49:15
    the the genes in the male you know
  • 00:49:18
    produce bigger future males yes but it
  • 00:49:22
    seems that those genes should affect
  • 00:49:24
    both males and females not males
  • 00:49:26
    selectively well in that reasoning all
  • 00:49:28
    male traits ought to appear on females
  • 00:49:30
    and we know that doesn't happen uh there
  • 00:49:32
    there are a lot of traits that are are
  • 00:49:34
    are on the let me see if I get this
  • 00:49:35
    right the Y chromosome that's the the
  • 00:49:37
    male chromosome and so tra traits that
  • 00:49:40
    are beneficial to males but not females
  • 00:49:42
    are typically housed on the Y chromosome
  • 00:49:45
    and uh yeah it's true the the the
  • 00:49:48
    females aren't uh the female elephant
  • 00:49:51
    seals aren't like house cats they're
  • 00:49:53
    they're 12200 lb some of them I mean so
  • 00:49:56
    you don't want you don't want
  • 00:49:58
    huge disparities but uh the the the male
  • 00:50:02
    traits don't have to appear in the
  • 00:50:05
    female while we're talking while we're
  • 00:50:08
    talking about biological bases for
  • 00:50:09
    examples with the wedding example it
  • 00:50:12
    seems a little counterintuitive that the
  • 00:50:14
    woman should want to wear the showest
  • 00:50:15
    clothing possible on the one day when
  • 00:50:18
    she's guaranteed to be associated with a
  • 00:50:20
    single monogamous
  • 00:50:25
    male so how does the theory explain that
  • 00:50:28
    one step further so the question is why
  • 00:50:31
    why would you spend so much to look your
  • 00:50:33
    best on a day when you were going out of
  • 00:50:35
    circulation in the in the dating Market
  • 00:50:38
    basically uh yeah maybe this is one like
  • 00:50:40
    the kamikazi Pilots That's you know
  • 00:50:44
    women just want to look their best on on
  • 00:50:46
    that's what women do it's it's a part of
  • 00:50:47
    female identity uh you don't aband you
  • 00:50:50
    don't abandon your identity so easily in
  • 00:50:53
    in specific circumstances where the cost
  • 00:50:55
    and benefits might not addend upright I
  • 00:50:57
    mean the a student just posed the
  • 00:50:58
    question why do they swab the prisoner's
  • 00:51:01
    arm with alcohol before administering
  • 00:51:03
    the lethal injection you know it's very
  • 00:51:05
    hard to come up with a a cost benefit
  • 00:51:07
    rationale but but it's easy to imagine
  • 00:51:10
    that you know if you're a doctor there
  • 00:51:11
    are just routines you follow uh I mean
  • 00:51:14
    maybe you shouldn't be in you shouldn't
  • 00:51:15
    be there in the first place if you're a
  • 00:51:17
    doctor but but uh the the people who
  • 00:51:19
    administer injections just have routines
  • 00:51:22
    and and that's part of your identity if
  • 00:51:23
    you do that and so that's what you do
  • 00:51:26
    we have time for one more question
  • 00:51:28
    anyone's
  • 00:51:35
    interested uh to what extent are
  • 00:51:37
    economists working with uh psychologists
  • 00:51:40
    maybe I mean you've demonstrated uh
  • 00:51:43
    points where people aren't completely
  • 00:51:44
    rational actors uh what sort of models
  • 00:51:46
    can you make that you know account for
  • 00:51:49
    you know weird kooky Behavior so the
  • 00:51:52
    question is uh to what extent are
  • 00:51:54
    economists working together with Psych
  • 00:51:56
    ologists and that's in fact been the
  • 00:51:59
    growth area in the past two decades in
  • 00:52:01
    economics behavioral economics you've
  • 00:52:03
    you've probably read about examples of
  • 00:52:05
    it uh in the popular
  • 00:52:08
    press Daniel conoman who with Stanford's
  • 00:52:11
    Amos tersi was one of the pioneers of
  • 00:52:13
    the ideas that underly much of
  • 00:52:15
    Behavioral economics was awarded the
  • 00:52:17
    Nobel prize in economics in 2002 uh he's
  • 00:52:21
    a psychologist he's never taken an
  • 00:52:22
    economics
  • 00:52:24
    course uh the kinds of things things
  • 00:52:26
    that uh they've studied are sort of
  • 00:52:29
    judgmental heris uh that's been the main
  • 00:52:33
    thing they focused on rules of thumb
  • 00:52:34
    people use and uh Amos
  • 00:52:37
    ders uh used to say uh my colleagues
  • 00:52:40
    they study artificial intelligence me I
  • 00:52:43
    like to study natural stupidity you know
  • 00:52:45
    I just wanted to sort of focus on those
  • 00:52:47
    situations where you had all the
  • 00:52:48
    relevant information and yet still you
  • 00:52:51
    got the wrong answer so so uh I mean
  • 00:52:55
    everybody feels he's immune from
  • 00:52:56
    advertising messages you just discount
  • 00:52:59
    that that garbage uh they did a nice
  • 00:53:01
    experiment where they wanted you to
  • 00:53:03
    estimate the proportion of United
  • 00:53:06
    Nations members uh or or the proportion
  • 00:53:09
    of countries in Africa that were members
  • 00:53:10
    of the United Nations they asked
  • 00:53:12
    students this question and of course
  • 00:53:14
    nobody in the US would have the foggiest
  • 00:53:16
    idea what the answer to that question
  • 00:53:18
    would be but the interesting Wrinkle in
  • 00:53:20
    their experiment was they had you spin a
  • 00:53:22
    random number wheel before they asked
  • 00:53:24
    you the question so it would stop on a
  • 00:53:26
    integer between Z and
  • 00:53:28
    100 without comment you know just spin
  • 00:53:30
    the wheel and then we're going to give
  • 00:53:31
    you another task then they' ask that
  • 00:53:33
    question they they if you got less than
  • 00:53:36
    25 on the the if you got less than 10 on
  • 00:53:39
    the number wheel the average estimate of
  • 00:53:41
    the fraction of African countries in the
  • 00:53:43
    UN was 25% if you got more than 65 on
  • 00:53:47
    the wheel your estimate was
  • 00:53:50
    45% and you could ask people well what's
  • 00:53:53
    the relationship between the number you
  • 00:53:54
    got on the wheel and the number that are
  • 00:53:56
    in the you in they would say well are
  • 00:53:57
    you kidding no relationship at all of
  • 00:53:58
    course not uh but you see a number and
  • 00:54:02
    that Illustrated their anchoring and
  • 00:54:03
    adjustment uh you you you have to make
  • 00:54:06
    an estimate of something you have to
  • 00:54:07
    start somewhere so you pick an anchor
  • 00:54:09
    and then you adjust so the anchor can be
  • 00:54:11
    the flimsiest thing but you got to start
  • 00:54:14
    somewhere and it has an effect yeah I I
  • 00:54:16
    I liked uh your suggestion you going to
  • 00:54:19
    get the book for your daughter there was
  • 00:54:20
    a guy who reviewed the book on his blog
  • 00:54:22
    and he endorsed the concept very warmly
  • 00:54:25
    and he said that he' been uh telling his
  • 00:54:27
    11-year-old son about examples from the
  • 00:54:30
    book at bedtime he said he can't get his
  • 00:54:32
    kid to go to sleep he just keeps
  • 00:54:34
    demanding another one yeah so I think uh
  • 00:54:37
    an 11-year-old can learn more economics
  • 00:54:39
    than a typical freshman learns in an
  • 00:54:41
    economics course and it's not a lot of
  • 00:54:43
    work so that's the good that's the good
  • 00:54:44
    news of the
  • 00:54:46
    book anyway thank you again uh for the
  • 00:54:48
    invitation you know it's fun to get a
  • 00:54:50
    chance to come out uh and visit with you
  • 00:54:52
    uh I'll I'll hang around and sign books
  • 00:54:54
    and chat with you as long as you want
  • 00:54:59
    [Applause]
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