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Making our societies
carbon free is now
00:00:03
the name of the game in
international politics.
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We need to fend off the climate
emergency caused by a warming
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planet.
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And the war in Ukraine has
shown the geopolitical risk
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of relying too much
on fossil energy.
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But it's a huge challenge.
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Fossil fuels are so embedded
in so many invisible ways.
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The difficulty of getting
rid of them is much,
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much greater than
people realise.
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Does it also have to
mean a radical change
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in our lifestyle?
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It's much more finding
a diversity of solutions
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rather than just
more consumption.
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In this film I will argue that
with the help of technology
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we can decarbonise the
economy without people
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in the rich world having to
sacrifice the activities we
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like while continuing to lift
people in poorer countries
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into middle-class lifestyles.
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One can see it as a race
between technology, which
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should make us
hopeful, and politics,
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which is going to be a source
of anxiety and concern.
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Welcome to Free Lunch
on Film, the series
00:01:09
where I take controversial
economic ideas
00:01:12
that I find appealing
and put them to the test.
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Most countries have set
a goal of net zero carbon
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by 2050, emitting
no more than they
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remove from the atmosphere.
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But we're nowhere near
a path to net zero.
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If we continue as
now the planet will
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warm more than the 1.5
degrees above pre-industrial
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temperatures where scientists
warn of intolerable climate
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damage.
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But we have faced a global
climate challenge before -
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and solved it.
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This is not just a spray can.
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It's an example
of how technology
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can save the environment
while letting us
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lead our lives as before.
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Forty years ago the
world was worrying
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about the hole in the
atmosphere's ozone layer, which
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raised the risk of
skin damage and cancer
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from ultraviolet light.
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The hole was caused by
chlorofluorocarbons, or CFCs,
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molecules released
by everyday products
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like spray cans and fridges.
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We observed a 35 per cent
decrease of the total ozone
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overhead.
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So in 1987 every
country in the world
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signed the Montreal
Protocol, which banned CFCs.
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And it worked.
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The ozone in the atmosphere
stabilised and the hole
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is shrinking.
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But we still have spray cans.
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We still have fridges
and air conditioners.
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Companies found new ways to make
the same things without CFCs.
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So as consumers we've
had to sacrifice nothing.
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My hope is that we can
get rid of greenhouse
00:03:05
gases in the same way with
carbon-free substitutes
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for the things our
lifestyles depend on.
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This view has a name:
techno-optimism.
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I foresee a completely
decarbonised economy
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where we still travel
much as before,
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where we keep consuming
goods from around the world,
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we continue to put
up large buildings,
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and still enjoy economic growth.
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But some see this as an
irresponsible fairytale.
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Many of my FT colleagues
doubt we can even
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achieve net zero carbon on
time without massive disruption
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and economic fallout.
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You know, it's a very
different situation to CFCs.
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We didn't have countries and
companies relying very heavily
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on these chemical compounds.
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And it was really easy to
swap them for harmless ones.
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Unfortunately, we're not
in the same situation
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with fossil fuels yet.
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For all that, I
think techno-optimism
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has a lot going for it.
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Let me tell you why.
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Ten years ago, on
a trip to Japan,
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I saw the world's first
mainstream electric car,
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the Nissan Leaf.
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Until then, electric cars had
seemed geeky, unpractical,
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and with looks only
a mother could love.
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But the Leaf, it just
seemed remarkably normal.
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On the other side of
the world, one country
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has since taken to electric
cars like no other.
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I've travelled to Norway to
witness the country's record
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uptake of electric vehicles,
because the electric car is
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a perfect illustration of this
idea that we can decarbonise
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our economies without depriving
ourselves of anything that we
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value.
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This car emits no carbon,
nor does the electricity
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that powers it, because
Norway has always run
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its grid on hydroelectricity.
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And yet, the driving
experience is
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no worse than an equivalent
internal combustion engine.
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If anything, it's
quite a bit better.
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The first time I drove an
electric car was back in 2006.
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It was a Norwegian
electric car called Think.
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And it made me quite amazed.
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Christina Bu heads up
Norway's Association
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for Electric Vehicle Drivers.
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With 100,000 members, it's
the largest in the world.
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It's incredible.
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Back in 2010 most people
were opposed to everything
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I was talking about
with electric cars.
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Last year, nearly two-thirds
of new passenger cars
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were electric.
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That's compared to just
3 per cent back in 2011.
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Nobody at that time would have
believed standing here now,
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in the city of Oslo almost 30
per cent of all passenger cars
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are fully electric.
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There are charging
stations everywhere.
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People are using them.
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It's become the new normal.
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And it's happened very fast.
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And it's not happened
just by chance.
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Well, it's all about
politics, really.
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Norwegians are not more
environmentally friendly
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or anything else.
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And we have rugged
mountains, long distances.
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So it's not really the country
where you would think we
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would first start with
a total revolution
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really in the way we drive cars.
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But it has happened because
of strong policies over time.
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The key has been to make EVs
as affordable and attractive
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as conventional cars.
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The most important policies
have been tax exemptions
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and taxing polluting
cars heavily,
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so that electric cars can
compete on the price tag
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when you buy it.
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In most other countries EVs
are still a lot more expensive.
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And with additional incentives
like lower tolls and cheaper
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parking, it's not just the
tech-savvy going electric.
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Because incentives
are there, they still
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choose to buy or
drive an electric car.
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And I think that is the key.
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We will never succeed with
cutting emissions in time
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if we have to wait for everyone
to care about the climate.
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So the big question
is, can other countries
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follow Norway's lead and make
car transport carbon-free?
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And not only that, decarbonise
every other activity as well?
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Well, let's look at
where CO2 comes from.
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Some three-quarters of it
is from the use of energy,
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above all in industry,
buildings, and transport.
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After that, it's agriculture
at nearly one-fifth
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of all emissions.
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Some think that that's just
too much to eliminate by 2050.
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We often think, well,
we've got electric cars.
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We know how to
decarbonise electricity.
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But unfortunately, electricity
only makes up about 18
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per cent of final global
energy consumption.
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And we need a lot more
energy that is currently
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fossil-fuelled to make stuff
like steel, and cement,
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and plastic, and ammonia,
all of these things that
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are really crucial to
our modern way of living.
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And it's very difficult to see
how we can decarbonise them
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in time to reduce
emissions by nearly half
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by 2030, and then to
almost nothing by 2050.
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Now, critics think
technology can't save us
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in the time we have left.
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Instead, they say we must
limit economic growth
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and simply accept having less.
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But who's right?
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Here's a helpful way
to think about it.
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This equation is called
the Kaya Identity.
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It shows the key factors behind
total carbon dioxide emissions.
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Total CO2 depends on the
number of people in the world
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and CO2 emissions
per person, which
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in turn break down further into
each person's average income
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or GDP per capita and
the average CO2 emitted
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per dollar of income.
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So this Kaya Identity shows that
decarbonisation must logically
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happen in one of three ways.
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We can shrink the
world's population.
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We can limit and reduce incomes.
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Or we can lower
the amount of CO2
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emitted for each dollar of GDP.
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Let's put to one
side the prospect
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of reducing the
population, which I for one
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find both immoral
and unrealistic.
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Then, net zero
carbon can only be
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achieved by cutting economic
production, degrowth,
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or finding ways to
produce without emitting
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greenhouse gases: green growth.
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That's a debate our next expert
has thought deeply about.
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We can't have it all.
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We can't get rid
of climate change,
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and just have
perfectly free choices,
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and enjoy the things
exactly as we did before.
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Diana Urge-Vorsatz
is a vice-chair
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on the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change, which
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has warned against any further
delay in cutting emissions.
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An environmental
scientist in Hungary,
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she's already changing to
a low-carbon lifestyle.
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I do try to travel much less
by plane unless I really cannot
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have an alternative.
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We allow a lot of our
garden to be taken over
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by green vegetation, which cools
both the garden environment,
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and our house.
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I don't buy almost anything new.
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To Diana Urge-Vorsatz we
have to reduce our material
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consumption.
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But that doesn't have to mean
our well-being will suffer.
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So technology alone won't
fix all of climate change.
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Nevertheless, this
does not necessarily
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mean giving up all the things
or even some of the things
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that you said: simply changing
our lifestyle, focusing more
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on well-being rather than
focusing on consumption
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and consuming stuff.
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We are happier if we have
a better work-life balance,
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if we are healthier, if we have
more education, if communities
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are stronger and better.
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That sounds fine in theory.
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But if it's difficult to
reduce the amount of carbon
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in our consumption,
it can be even harder
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to demand that people
should consume less.
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Especially people who
are poor to begin with,
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like many in India or China,
two of the world's biggest
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emitters, or in other
developing countries.
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So the question is,
whose consumption
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are you going to shrink?
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Economist Arvind Subramanian is
a former chief economic adviser
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to the Indian government.
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And if you think
you're going to shrink
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that of those who
are living at barely
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frugal levels of
consumption, I mean,
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that would be completely
unethical and unconscionable.
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It's completely
clueless politically.
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Not only that, he
says the rich world
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is guilty of rank
hypocrisy in what it
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demands from poorer countries.
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We won't allow fossil fuels
in developing countries.
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Whereas in advanced
countries themselves,
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you still allow, you
will have natural gas,
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even if you don't
have coal, you're
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going to have some
form of fossil fuels.
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So the kind of
implicit hypocrisy
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suggests that you, the poor,
you use a lot of fossil fuels.
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Tough luck for you.
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You have to kind of adjust.
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00:12:35
If it's callous to suggest
degrowth for poorer countries,
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then perhaps we can focus it
on the consumption of the rich.
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Degrowth scenarios
also never assume
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that those segments of the
population who don't have yet
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adequate diet or adequate
access to education and health
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would need to degrow.
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Not at all.
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They still very
much need to grow.
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Letting the poor enjoy
economic growth need not
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threaten net zero.
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Why?
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Because carbon emissions
are astonishingly unequal.
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I think it's a
very important fact
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to understand that
about one-tenth
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of the global population
is responsible [for]
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well over half of all
global carbon emissions.
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And it's also true
the other way around.
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Over half of the
world's population
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emits less than a tenth
of all global emissions.
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So even if they
grow tremendously
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we won't even notice
it in our emissions.
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00:13:30
But even reducing
growth only for the rich
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is not straightforward.
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It's not as if you have a
certain average level of income
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where you reduce one
and therefore you
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can transfer that
costlessly to the poor.
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If rich countries start slowing
down and you get degrowth,
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our export markets are
going to be affected.
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Our access to technology
and cheaper inputs
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are going to be affected.
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Degrowth in one place means
negative repercussions
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for the other
parts of the world.
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00:14:01
All these problems with degrowth
convince me that it cannot
00:14:04
address the challenge
of climate change.
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I think that leaves us with
only one option: green growth.
00:14:10
00:14:17
If techno-optimists
are right, it's
00:14:20
not our consumption we need to
cut but the amount of carbon we
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emit in satisfying it.
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And ideally, we'll
cut it fast enough
00:14:27
to keep economic growth going
while moving towards net zero
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carbon.
00:14:31
00:14:33
As the experts put it, we
need to decouple growth
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from emissions.
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Many countries
have managed this.
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Their consumption is growing,
but emissions are falling.
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The question is whether
the rest can do the same
00:14:47
and whether all countries
can do it fast enough.
00:14:51
In some sectors, decoupling
growth from emissions
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is definitely doable.
00:14:56
We have the technology to
produce zero carbon electricity
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from renewables like
wind and solar energy,
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and from non-renewable but
emissions-free nuclear power.
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Decarbonising electricity is
really the low hanging fruit.
00:15:08
It's really the easiest,
because we have the technology,
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we know how to do it.
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Nonetheless, you still have
to invest a huge amount
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in electricity grid systems
to make it all work at scale.
00:15:21
This will cost
trillions of dollars.
00:15:23
But once done we can
decarbonise other sectors
00:15:27
by electrifying them.
00:15:29
Electrification of
transport is well under way.
00:15:33
And for heavy
transport, hydrogen
00:15:36
is another carbon-free
alternative.
00:15:39
The big challenge is flying.
00:15:41
It's really difficult. We just
don't have electric planes yet.
00:15:44
And it's going to be difficult
because of the physical density
00:15:48
of kerosene versus lithium-ion
batteries to imagine
00:15:52
how that gets done very quickly.
00:15:54
We're not talking about
a massive contributor
00:15:57
to the problem yet, but
it is growing very fast.
00:16:02
Next is energy used in industry.
00:16:04
We have the potential
to electrify or use
00:16:07
hydrogen in many
industrial processes
00:16:08
too, even if much is
still experimental.
00:16:12
We actually do know how to
make green steel, for example.
00:16:15
That's being done in a really
interesting way in Sweden.
00:16:17
But it's really expensive.
00:16:20
What about construction?
00:16:22
It releases carbon dioxide
both from the energy needed
00:16:25
to put up buildings and
also from the process used
00:16:28
to make materials like cement.
00:16:30
But the search for
alternatives is on.
00:16:33
We have many
skyscrapers today, which
00:16:35
are mostly built from timber.
00:16:37
Nevertheless, timber is
not available in most
00:16:40
of the world in quantities that
we need for new construction.
00:16:44
But the good news
is that you can also
00:16:46
use other bio-based materials:
agricultural waste, straw.
00:16:50
These are all excellent
building materials.
00:16:52
And we have very
high-tech alternatives
00:16:56
for cement and
partially also steel.
00:16:59
00:16:59
Then there are the big
emissions from agriculture
00:17:02
and other uses of land.
00:17:04
We need a fundamental change
of how we make agriculture.
00:17:07
The present practices
are very unsustainable,
00:17:10
the big monocultures, and
not only for climate change,
00:17:13
but also for biodiversity
and also for soil health.
00:17:17
So that's where we
really have to go
00:17:19
for much smaller fields,
much more diversity of things
00:17:21
that we produce.
00:17:22
We have to go for dietary
change as much as we can.
00:17:26
00:17:28
Here's the bottom line.
00:17:30
In some areas, like
ground transport,
00:17:32
it's technologically
feasible, even easy,
00:17:35
to take the carbon out.
00:17:37
In other areas, it's more
costly, more difficult,
00:17:41
maybe even impossible
to do by 2050:
00:17:44
flying, cement making,
meat production.
00:17:48
And here is the
strongest argument
00:17:50
that decarbonisation
will require
00:17:52
us to give up some of
the things we value
00:17:54
in our economic well-being.
00:17:56
If that's the case it may
seem like techno-optimism
00:17:59
won't save the day after all.
00:18:01
00:18:09
But there are other ways
we can bridge this gap
00:18:11
to net zero, which
also rely on better
00:18:14
or smarter uses of technology.
00:18:16
We can be more efficient in
how we consume so that less
00:18:18
of the production is wasted.
00:18:21
This goes back to
the Kaya Identity.
00:18:23
In green growth, we want
to reduce carbon dioxide
00:18:26
emissions per dollar of income.
00:18:28
That can be done in two ways:
by reducing energy intensity,
00:18:32
the energy used in one dollar's
worth of economic activity,
00:18:36
or by reducing carbon
intensity, the carbon emitted
00:18:39
by using one unit of energy.
00:18:43
So we can in fact decarbonise
while keeping our consumption
00:18:46
the same, by keeping our homes
warmer with better insulation,
00:18:50
for example, or by
taking the waste out
00:18:52
of our food habits
or building designs.
00:18:55
But to really be more
efficient we'll need more
00:18:57
than individual change.
00:18:59
Energy needs depend
on our wider systems.
00:19:02
For example, how much we design
our cities to depend on cars.
00:19:08
Yes, we do need systemic
change, because it
00:19:10
means we have to do our
cities completely differently.
00:19:13
Significantly less
cars, which means we'll
00:19:15
need significantly less
steel, much less concrete
00:19:18
for parking lots, for
roads, while still having
00:19:22
the same access to mobility.
00:19:24
00:19:30
Now, if we can't
eliminate all the carbon
00:19:32
we emit, then another
way to get to net zero
00:19:35
is to suck out the remaining
carbon from the atmosphere,
00:19:38
as trees do.
00:19:40
And the easiest
way to do that is
00:19:42
to plant more trees,
which is what they do here
00:19:45
at the Forest of Marston
Vale in the east of England.
00:19:47
00:19:52
We can certainly
plant more trees.
00:19:54
But it's a race between the
trees and the fossil fuels,
00:19:57
essentially.
00:19:57
And at the moment the more
that we extract and use
00:20:01
fossil fuels the
more difficult it
00:20:03
is to imagine that
forests and indeed oceans
00:20:06
are going to be able to continue
to absorb the CO2 pollution.
00:20:10
00:20:13
If planting more
trees isn't enough,
00:20:16
then we come to the more
speculative possibilities
00:20:18
of negative carbon technologies:
carbon capture and storage.
00:20:24
We talk about technologies
like direct air capture
00:20:26
and even carbon capture
and sequestration.
00:20:28
These things in 2022 really
don't exist at scale.
00:20:33
And not only do they
not exist at scale,
00:20:34
but the policies needed
to increase them at scale
00:20:38
don't exist.
00:20:40
I just feel that we've
underinvested globally in this.
00:20:44
We've all gotten a bit
enamoured of renewables.
00:20:47
And therefore, that's
where all the R&D
00:20:50
effort, and the excitement,
and entrepreneurship has been.
00:20:53
If we focused a little bit
more attention on that,
00:20:56
maybe we'll get a lot more
action on this as well.
00:21:00
As you can see, the debate about
how far technology can get us
00:21:03
is far from settled.
00:21:05
So where does that leave us?
00:21:06
00:21:14
If we can't be sure that we
can take enough carbon out
00:21:17
of the atmosphere,
then the aim must
00:21:19
be to put as little
as we can into it.
00:21:22
And it's clear to me that we can
make large parts of our economy
00:21:26
emissions-free if we do three
things: electrify everything we
00:21:31
can, make all that
electricity carbon-free,
00:21:34
and push for
technological advances
00:21:36
to decarbonise the rest.
00:21:39
For those three
things to happen,
00:21:41
we need two 'Is':
incentives and investments.
00:21:45
The Norwegian experience
with electric cars
00:21:47
shows the power of incentives.
00:21:49
Get the price right
and people will switch.
00:21:52
If we can do it, any other
country can do it as well.
00:21:56
It's all about
deciding that this
00:21:58
is where we're going to
go and implement policies
00:22:01
to make it happen.
00:22:03
But switching also
requires huge investments
00:22:05
to scale up existing
tech, like batteries
00:22:08
and hydrogen-powered
lorries, to build smart grids
00:22:11
to manage electricity, and
to advance the tech that
00:22:15
is still at its early
stages, like green steel
00:22:18
and electric planes.
00:22:20
These investments are driven
by incentives too, of course.
00:22:23
It has to cost you
to emit carbon.
00:22:26
So if I'm running
a steel factory
00:22:30
and selling my steel
around the world,
00:22:31
and I'm told, well, if you
want to make that green, you're
00:22:34
going to have to buy a
whole lot of new equipment,
00:22:36
and you may have to
double the price of it,
00:22:39
I'm not really going to be
terribly keen to do that.
00:22:41
And in the absence of
a carbon price that's
00:22:45
going to essentially force me to
do it, why am I going to do it?
00:22:48
00:22:50
A carbon price means quite
simply paying for emissions.
00:22:53
The more carbon used
the higher the price.
00:22:56
If designed well it
creates an incentive
00:22:59
to switch to greener tech.
00:23:01
The good news is that
carbon pricing is
00:23:03
starting to happen in earnest.
00:23:05
Canada and Norway have
set carbon taxes on a path
00:23:08
to well above $100
per tonne by 2030.
00:23:12
In the EU some industries
have to buy allowances
00:23:15
to emit carbon and the market
price of those allowances
00:23:18
reached record
highs in early 2022.
00:23:21
And with a war in
Ukraine fossil fuels
00:23:24
themselves are already
becoming very expensive.
00:23:28
But there is still
a long way to go,
00:23:30
as investors are just
starting to look away
00:23:32
from carbon-based
energy to green tech.
00:23:37
When that switch happens it
will be deeply disruptive.
00:23:40
Anything based on
carbon becomes pricier.
00:23:43
And workers in carbon-intensive
activities will be hit too.
00:23:47
If you were to go and close
down every aluminium smelter,
00:23:51
every steelmaking
outlet, if you went
00:23:55
about trying to really
radically decarbonise quickly,
00:23:58
people would be
thrown out of work.
00:24:01
Given all this, do
I really believe
00:24:03
we can reach net zero
without big sacrifices?
00:24:06
00:24:13
I started out asking how
our lives will change
00:24:16
if we reach net zero by 2050.
00:24:20
That's a big 'if'.
00:24:21
Politicians face
difficult decisions.
00:24:23
We have to transform our
industry and our energy.
00:24:26
Huge amounts have to be
invested into new technology.
00:24:30
And a lot of that
will feel like a cost.
00:24:32
There'll be new taxes,
lots of expensive equipment
00:24:35
to invest in, and some
jobs will be lost.
00:24:40
But taxes on carbon can
be redistributed to those
00:24:42
who have the most to lose.
00:24:44
I am very much in favour of a
carbon fee and dividend policy,
00:24:47
where instead of just putting
a carbon price on something
00:24:50
and then the government taking
the money and using it to build
00:24:53
new schools, hospitals,
whatever it feels like,
00:24:55
you return it to people in the
form of a cheque, a dividend.
00:24:58
00:25:01
If greater
investments mean we'll
00:25:03
have to consume a
little less now,
00:25:05
they do safeguard
higher standards
00:25:07
of living in the future.
00:25:09
So in a net zero world I
believe we won't feel deprived
00:25:13
of much that we enjoy today.
00:25:15
Nor will we stop
the world's poor
00:25:16
from moving into
middle-class lifestyles.
00:25:19
Maybe we'll fly a little
less, cut back a bit on meat,
00:25:23
pay slightly more for
everything from food to gadgets.
00:25:26
We'll organise our lives in
a more energy-efficient way.
00:25:30
But here is what has
really struck me.
00:25:33
The experts I've spoken to
think that decarbonisation
00:25:36
will be difficult, yes.
00:25:38
But not painful.
00:25:39
Quite the opposite.
00:25:43
With electric cars
and electric vehicles
00:25:45
we can continue the life
that we like living today
00:25:49
without too much sacrifice.
00:25:50
Of course, we should have public
transport, bikes and so on,
00:25:54
in the cities.
00:25:55
But we do need vehicles
to work our lives.
00:25:59
The only way we
get to net zero is
00:26:01
if growth happens and
standards of living rise.
00:26:04
We'll have cracked the energy
use, the energy access problem.
00:26:08
So a net zero world, if we get
it, is going to be, I think,
00:26:13
unambiguously positive
for everyone in the world.
00:26:16
I think the greatest
thing about it
00:26:18
will be that we are going
to have much more free time.
00:26:21
And as a result, I won't
be consuming that much.
00:26:24
For example, I hope that I
won't need to have my own car,
00:26:27
but I still can get
to anywhere I want to.
00:26:30
If we're buying our food more
locally, it tastes better,
00:26:34
it might last longer.
00:26:35
There are lots of
ways of imagining
00:26:37
that a decarbonised
life is not that hugely
00:26:40
different to the one that
we lead at the moment,
00:26:42
and in many ways hugely better.
00:26:45
This doesn't sound like
a life of sacrifice.
00:26:48
But we do have an enormous job
to do and not a moment to lose.
00:26:52
Every second of
delay puts that net
00:26:54
zero goal further from reach.
00:26:56
00:27:07
Where we will have to
accept fundamental change
00:27:09
is in our politics.
00:27:12
We'll need a much
greater more active role
00:27:14
of the government
in our economy,
00:27:16
taxes that drive us
away from carbon,
00:27:19
and policies that make for
less consumption and more
00:27:22
investment.
00:27:25
The reward comes in greener
tech-driven policies
00:27:29
that decarbonise and protect
our material well-being.
00:27:33
What I hope and
believe is that this
00:27:35
means having more for
less: more economic growth,
00:27:39
with ever less fossil energy.
00:27:42
In this sense, I
think techno-optimists
00:27:44
can agree with degrowth
advocates on one thing.
00:27:48
We need to embrace cutting
carbon radically and fast.
00:27:54
But unlike the degrowthers,
techno-optimists
00:27:57
think people will respond to
that by developing and adopting
00:28:00
green technology so economic
growth doesn't need to suffer.
00:28:05
Because if we try to
hold back growth itself
00:28:07
and not how it's generated, then
I'm certain people will rebel.
00:28:13
We will reach net zero in ways
that make European middle-class
00:28:16
lifestyles available
and sustainable
00:28:19
to everyone on the planet.
00:28:21
Otherwise, I fear we
won't get there at all.
00:28:24
00:28:33
And finally, we'd love
to hear what you think.
00:28:36
So please share your comments.
00:28:39
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