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Hey bow tie Nation Joseph hog here with
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your weekly stock market update 9:00
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a.m. eastern every Monday morning today
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on Tuesday because of the holiday but
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with the stocks to watch and the stock
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market news you need to see and despite
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that shortened week this could be the
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most important week of the year for
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stocks what happens this week could set
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the direction for the entire year
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whether we see another 20% plus year or
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whether we see that beautiful bull
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market come crashing down in fact this
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week I'm going straight to the stocks to
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watch including updates to AMD Netflix
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and quantum stocks like retti Computing
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then we'll talk about the big news this
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week earnings that will be hugely
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supportive of stocks but also how to
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watch what president Trump does this
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week to know exactly how to invest the
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rest of the year that is an insane
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amount of potential news so let's get
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started with the stocks I'm watching
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this week and Advanced Micro Devices
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ticker AMD the company doesn't report
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earnings until February 4th but could
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find support leading up to that date and
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the more I dig into the stock the more I
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like shares dropped 133% in December
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alone on downgrades from gold man sax
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KeyBank and HSBC weakness in that PC and
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the gaming Market along with nvidia's
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unstoppable dominance in AI despite that
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pessimism and the 23% plunge over the
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last year Wall Street analysts have an
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average price target of $172 a share 41%
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higher from here and news could turn
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that positive very quickly the company
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had some strong presentations at the
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recent CES in Las Vegas and could report
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an upside surprise during its February
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4th earnings AMD has been taking share
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in the PC and gaming Market Market from
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Intel all year long especially following
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its disastrous aerol Lake chip in fact
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AMD has reported shortages of its Ry in
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7 because demand has been so strong I'm
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going to outline some potential
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surprises next but revenue is already
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expected up 25% this year to $32 billion
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with earnings to jump 54% to over $5 a
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share now that puts the shares at a
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price of just six times this year's
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expected sales a 95% discount to the
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11.7 times average it's traded at over
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the last four quarters any a 23 times
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price to forward earnings valuation also
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a huge discount to where it usually
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trades so here you've got a stock in the
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biggest growth Market admittedly the
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runner up but still extremely strong
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growth trading for at least a 30 to 50%
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discount on its price and I think we see
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that sales growth ramp up even faster
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than expected that's because AI is now
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shifting from model training which uses
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an immense amount of compute power to a
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less intensive inference stage Nvidia
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has dominated the chip market for its AI
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training for its advantage in Edge
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Computing but the shortages along with
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rumored overheating problems in its new
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Blackwell chips has pushed those prices
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Skyward Nvidia gpus cost upwards of
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25,000 each and we're hearing lately of
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a lot of these hyperscalers shifting to
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AMD for its less expensive chips
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nvidia's 300 series especially the 350
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upgrade launching later this year which
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will feature a 35x performance increase
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very competitive with nvidia's earlier
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Hopper 100 chips on those inference
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benchmarks also Dell recently announced
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it would be using AMD chips for
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corporate customers for the first time
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where it previously only used AMD for
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Consumer PCS IBM has also said that it
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would be using the AMD 300 series and
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its cloud services starting the first
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half of this year and I think little or
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none of this potential upside in AI is
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built into the price at this valuation
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so we could see those shares of AMD rise
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even further than the analyst Target of
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$172 a share we're just getting started
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here but if you've ever wondered what's
00:03:24
in my portfolio or want to see the
00:03:26
stocks I'm buying you can now by joining
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me on the blossom investing app the app
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was created by investors and for
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investors I just started using it light
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last year and love the app for getting
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ideas and sharing my portfolio this
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isn't just another investing app though
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you can connect your brokerage accounts
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or just input your portfolio to track
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all your stocks in one place you're
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going to see insights like portfolio
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percentages and the average dividend
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yield across the entire group you'll
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also be able to join more than 200,000
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investors in the social feed to see what
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everyone else is talking about now I've
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shared my portfolio on the app and it's
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totally free to download so look for the
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special invite link I'll leave in the
00:04:03
description below Alibaba Holdings toou
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Baba has suffered along with the other
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Chinese stocks ahead of a potential
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trade war and is now down 30% from that
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October jump to $120 a share this was
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one of my biggest winners last year up
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$120,000 on the call options and the
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shares are back into that deep value
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territory revenue is only expected up 6%
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this year but ignores some upside
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surprises and even on this roughly $140
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billion in expected Revenue that puts
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the shares at just 1.4 times on a price
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to sales valuation a 35% discount to
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where it traded late last year and at
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least a 20% discount to fair value we'll
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see how far president Trump goes with
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his tariff starting this week but
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reports are out that China is planning a
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very big stimulus offset Beyond those
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economic measures that could boost
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consumer spending government is also
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likely to buy stocks directly through
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its stabilization fund that could reach
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into the hundreds of billions of dollars
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those short-term measures or just a more
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nuanced tariff strategy here in the US
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could boost those shares quickly but the
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company also has a lot of long-term
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levers for growth alibaba's open source
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AI model Quinn 72b has produced
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performance comparable to alphabet and
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anthropics models and its Cloud business
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could get a boost from increased data
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center usage around AI Alibaba has also
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been aggressively pricing its cloud
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services which could help beat on the
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Topline Revenue growth even if it does
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detract a little bit from earnings also
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going to be watching this week Netflix
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Inc ticker nflx going to be reporting
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its earnings after the close on Tuesday
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with a shares up 7 9% over the last year
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I recommended the stock in August at
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$700 a share on the runup to its
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promotion for that second season of its
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hit squid games that was released
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December 26th but got to tell you sold
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it the first chance I got after binging
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those six episodes Netflix is
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unquestionably the dominant player in
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streaming and the addition of sports
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will be additive to subscribers but that
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dumpster fire of his squid games is not
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going to keep people from canceling the
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subscriptions and I wonder if the high
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price of the company is paying for those
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Sports licenses is going to detract ract
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more from expected than earnings
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earnings for the quarter are expected to
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double from last year but to slow to
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just 12% for the next quarter and 20%
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for the full year on 12% earnings growth
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now that doesn't necessarily make the
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shares too expensive at 36 times on a
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price to expected earnings basis or just
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over eight times unexpected revenues
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versus some of these historical averages
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but the stock does have a nasty habit of
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volatility around its earnings it's
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fallen in six of the last quarters with
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an average drop of 13% when it
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disappoints and that's versus an upside
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of 11% in the sixth quarters it did
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outperform the fourth quarter has seen a
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positive surprise in two of the last 3
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years but investors should note here
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that the upcoming first quarter report
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in May is nearly always bad with Miss
00:06:42
subscriber goals as people cancel after
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the holidays I highlighted Bank stocks
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last week as a strong buy before their
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earnings with the spyer bank ETF ticker
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kbe up nearly 8% when those earnings
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came in and favorites JP Morgan ticker
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JPM and Goldman Sachs GS were up even
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more just over8 and 11% on the week but
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there is a warning here that we're
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seeing that it could be very good year
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for banks that not all banks are created
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equal from the earnings reported we're
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seeing an optimistic outlook on
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investment banking Market activities and
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mergers and Acquisitions ahead of that
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deregulatory push promised by Trump now
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these are the kinds of High Finance
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bankingsales charge on their loans and
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what they pay on deposits a loan growth
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has stagnated over the last few months
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on a sluggish economy and fewer Fed rate
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Cuts now expected means higher rates
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banks are going to have to pay on those
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deposits net interest income was
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actually down 2.3% and more than $500
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million for JP Morgan last quarter so
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what we could see here is that those
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Wall Street Banks like Goldman JP Morgan
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and black rock which is the largest
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issuer of ETFs in the world reporting a
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record 20 billion in fund assets should
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all continue to do really well and then
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leverage that market mood for those more
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bucks Regional Banks though that do most
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of their revenue from lending and that
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net interest income could underperform
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so you might want to avoid those if in
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favor of those Majors Ally Financial
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ticker all though would be an exception
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to this a consumer focused bank that I'm
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still buying on good growth and great
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valuation the online bank reports
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earnings Wednesday with earnings
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expected up 28% to 58 cents a share
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despite a little bit of weakness in
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Revenue now last year's revenue and
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earnings took a bit of a hit on the weak
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car lending Market but we expected to
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bounce back this year with 37% earnings
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growth to $4 a share on an 8% Revenue
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growth I've been adding shares here
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since October after the stock plunged
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following its last earnings report but
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its valuation is just too cheap to
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ignore here besides trading at just nine
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times that expected earnings the shares
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are priced at just .9 times Book value
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which is at least 14% below fair value
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on top of the 3% dividend y against all
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this Alli is a solid fintech and while
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autol lending is still that's bread in
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butter it also has the largest digital
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bank with a growing business in
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Insurance credit cards and Home Loans
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Warren Buffett owns nearly 10% of the
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bank through his birkshire hathway
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portfolio a position worth over a
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billion dollars on 29 million shares
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symbotic Inc ticker SYM jumped 16% last
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week and has up over 18% since we
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started talking about it in early
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December last week's bump was on news
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that symbotic would acquire Walmart's
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Advanced systems and Robotics business
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which pretty much cements that symbotic
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as the AI logistics company to own the
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background here is symbotic is using AI
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powered Robotics and software to
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automate warehouse and Logistics with a
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4-year development partnership alongside
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Walmart that alone could send Revenue
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booming higher here just installing its
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robotic systems in Warehouse operations
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is a $432 billion market with the
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operational side another half trillion
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dollar so what we have here is an
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evolutionary step in that trillion
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dollar warehousing industry a leader in
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the space that is already operating
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warehouses for Walmart Target and
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Albertson's and always with the back end
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of Walmart which owns 14.5% of symbotic
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but why the robotics news with Walmart
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is so important and I believe could make
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this a $250 billion company which would
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be a 1,500% return or more is now with
00:10:12
the robotic systems acquisition it it
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puts symbotic in a position to operate
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Walmart's 210 global distribution
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centers and dominate that trillion doll
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Warehouse Market the agreement tasks
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symbotic to develop build and deploy an
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automated system in delivery so not only
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a wareh house operations but also
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delivery for the world's largest
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retailer now in this symbotic already
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has a revenue backlog of $23 billion
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with the deal expected to increase that
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by another 5 billion and remember this
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is a company expected to post just 2.3
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billion in Revenue this year so this
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could keep those sales growing at that
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30% plus range for years now I'm loading
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up here because one of two things
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happens either Walmart expands this
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partnership to the point where it just
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buys that remaining 86% of symbotic that
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it doesn't own or the company
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revolutionizes The Warehouse Market with
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its Ai and Robotics also watching
00:11:03
Quantum Computing stocks which were down
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20% since my tough love lesson in the
00:11:07
December video but now may have some
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momentum that could make for a
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short-term play for investors willing to
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take a lot of risk now my previous video
00:11:15
pointed out that stocks like retti
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Computing d-wave Quantum and INX may
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change the world but that Quantum
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Revolution would take years longer than
00:11:23
investors would want to wait Nvidia CEO
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Jensen Wang recently echoed that point
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saying that the techn techology was
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still decades away and meta Zuckerberg
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reiterated again last week sending the
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stocks down further my point here folks
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was that yes these stocks have surged
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higher but at what cost if you're not
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ready to see a 40% crash on any single
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day and just shrug it off then these are
00:11:45
not for you but then two announcements
00:11:47
last week could support those Quantum
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stocks for investors willing to take
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that risk and the trade Nvidia announced
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a special Quantum day for its March GTC
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conference where I imagine the CEO is
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going to be much more open to the
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technology Microsoft also announced last
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week that it would Institute a training
00:12:02
program to help businesses be Quantum
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ready these stocks are still not for the
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faint of heart but especially around
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that March GTC date could be a very good
00:12:10
trade on news at the conference giving
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you that bigger picture here with the
00:12:13
sector spider sector tracker all 11
00:12:16
stock sectors closed higher last week
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with impressive strength than most
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including gains of more than 4% in six
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groups utilities real estate materials
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Industrials financials and energy now
00:12:27
the rebound in utilities and real estate
00:12:29
were really driven by that drop in
00:12:30
interest rates and may not continue
00:12:32
unless we see a change in Market
00:12:34
expectations energy and financials have
00:12:36
already been bit up over the past month
00:12:38
but some upside might remain in those
00:12:40
financials group for the big Banks of
00:12:43
last week's winners though materials and
00:12:44
Industrials look like they could
00:12:46
continue higher on attractive valuations
00:12:48
and that momentum consumer discretionary
00:12:50
stocks are starting the year off on a
00:12:51
week note down 4.3% over the past month
00:12:54
and the second worst sector after
00:12:55
Consumer Staples before you go looking
00:12:58
to buy the dipto pay attention to what
00:12:59
bank earnings are saying about consumer
00:13:01
credit and lending now we know that
00:13:03
lower-end consumers are already
00:13:05
stretched and overall consumer spending
00:13:07
is losing some of its momentum if Bank
00:13:09
earnings confirm this for the holiday
00:13:11
quarter I think they will we could see
00:13:14
more weakness in those consumer related
00:13:15
stocks looking at the news this week and
00:13:17
a very important tell for the rest of
00:13:19
the year president Trump will be sworn
00:13:20
in while the market is closed on Monday
00:13:22
so I means Tuesday's Market is going to
00:13:24
be a very important measure of investor
00:13:26
sentiment around those early executive
00:13:27
orders while earnings are just starting
00:13:30
to heat up and should be very supportive
00:13:32
the flurry of first week policy
00:13:33
announcements is going to set that
00:13:35
market mood and as we've been talking
00:13:36
about lately this is all about the
00:13:38
timing Trump and treasury secretary
00:13:40
nominee besset may be talking up tax
00:13:42
cuts as a priority but the reality is a
00:13:45
very thin majority in Congress means
00:13:47
Republicans are going to struggle to
00:13:49
extend those expiring tax cuts much less
00:13:51
pass new tax cuts that's going to weigh
00:13:53
on the markets as that reality seeps in
00:13:55
and we get closer to that tax cut
00:13:57
expirations at the end of the year
00:13:59
a deregulation is another Market
00:14:01
positive but it's going to be hard
00:14:03
fought truth and nail through Congress
00:14:05
on the other hand some of those Market
00:14:07
unfriendly policies could be enacted
00:14:09
much more quickly with a presidential
00:14:10
order here is where we need to see a
00:14:12
slower or gradual reality versus some of
00:14:15
the bombastic promises made on the
00:14:16
campaign Trail if we do see the biggest
00:14:19
Mass deportation in history on day one
00:14:21
including immigration raids at
00:14:23
businesses the market is going to be
00:14:25
punished on fears of higher inflation
00:14:26
and a shrinking Workforce Now on day one
00:14:29
if also we see it through an executive
00:14:30
order we see an expansion of tariffs to
00:14:33
60% on Chinese Goods 25% on Canada and
00:14:36
Mexico and maybe 20% on All Imports
00:14:39
stocks are going to crumble on fears of
00:14:41
inflation and that outof control trade
00:14:43
War now of course president Trump knows
00:14:44
this and there's already talk of a
00:14:46
gradual system of tariff increases from
00:14:48
2 to 5% a month also deportation plans
00:14:51
may seem to have been tempered with
00:14:52
reports of an initial focus on those
00:14:54
with criminal records if Trump can find
00:14:56
a way to appear like he's keeping his
00:14:58
campaign promises and being tough on the
00:15:00
issues at the same time without spooking
00:15:01
the market we will continue to see
00:15:03
stocks rally but all of this this should
00:15:06
become very evident within the first two
00:15:08
weeks of this Administration if the
00:15:09
market doesn't like what it sees in this
00:15:11
early priorities we could see a
00:15:13
continuation of the 10% correction we
00:15:15
started in December join me on the
00:15:17
blossom investing app and see the stocks
00:15:19
everyone is talking about including
00:15:20
what's in my portfolio the app is
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totally free to download so look for
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on the video to the right to see the
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seven penny stocks on buying for 2025
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