How China’s New AI Model DeepSeek Is Threatening U.S. Dominance
Resumo
TLDRIn a surprising turn of events, China's AI lab Deepseek has unveiled an open-source AI model that has outperformed U.S.-based models from giants like OpenAI, Google, and Meta, achieving this remarkable feat with significantly lower costs and development time. With an investment of just $5.6 million and a development period of only two months, Deepseek's model has disrupted the status quo in Silicon Valley, where top firms spend billions to develop their technologies. Despite facing hardware restrictions imposed by the U.S. government, Deepseek has demonstrated exceptional efficiency and innovation, raising concerns about the future of AI leadership and the dynamics of the global tech landscape. Observers warn that the widespread adoption of cost-effective and powerful models like Deepseek's may undermine U.S. dominance in the field, while also highlighting the risks associated with AI deployed under authoritarian control.
Conclusões
- 🚀 Deepseek has unveiled a powerful open-source AI model that outperforms several top U.S. models.
- 💰 Developed at a fraction of the cost, only $5.6 million for their latest model.
- 🔍 The model has surpassed GPT-4, Llama, and other leading AIs in accuracy tests.
- 🖥️ Deepseek managed to overcome U.S. semiconductor restrictions creatively.
- 🌍 This development signals a shift in the AI competition landscape, challenging U.S. dominance.
- 📉 Open-source models could democratize access to AI technology and innovation.
- 🇨🇳 There are ethical concerns regarding AI models developed within China's regulatory environment.
- 📈 China has shown rapid advances in AI, catching up within a short period.
- 💡 Necessity in resource constraints has driven Chinese innovation in AI.
- 🤖 The implications of a Chinese open-source AI model could reshape global tech dynamics.
Linha do tempo
- 00:00:00 - 00:05:00
China's AI breakthrough, led by Deepseek, has caught the attention of Silicon Valley by outperforming major players like OpenAI and Google with significantly lower costs and faster development times.
- 00:05:00 - 00:10:00
Deepseek's model was developed in just two months for approximately $5.6 million, contrasting with the billions spent by American firms. This achievement is reshaping perceptions of China's capabilities in AI.
- 00:10:00 - 00:15:00
Deepseek's advanced models have shown superior performance in various benchmarks compared to models from major tech companies, indicating that China's AI landscape is evolving rapidly and competitively.
- 00:15:00 - 00:20:00
The restrictions on semiconductor exports to China have not hindered Deepseek's success; instead, they have innovatively utilized available resources to create efficient AI models.
- 00:20:00 - 00:25:00
Deepseek's foundation remains somewhat enigmatic, with little known about its creators, posing intriguing questions about transparency and collaboration in the evolving AI landscape.
- 00:25:00 - 00:30:00
A broader trend in China’s AI development is emerging, with other companies, especially startups, attaining significant achievements with limited funding, shaking the prior belief that the U.S. held a substantial leading edge.
- 00:30:00 - 00:35:00
There’s a growing consensus that the open-source AI models from China could disrupt traditional closed-source models in the U.S, leading to a potential shift in the dynamics of global AI development.
- 00:35:00 - 00:40:24
Experts argue that the distinction between open-source and closed-source models will become increasingly important, and how firms respond to these competitive pressures will shape the future landscape of AI development.
Mapa mental
Vídeo de perguntas e respostas
What is Deepseek?
Deepseek is a Chinese AI lab that created a free, open-source AI model that outperforms several leading models from U.S. companies.
How much did Deepseek spend on their AI model?
Deepseek reportedly spent just $5.6 million to develop their model.
How does Deepseek's model compare to OpenAI's models?
Deepseek's model outperformed OpenAI's GPT-4 on accuracy in various tests while being significantly cheaper to develop.
What challenges has Deepseek faced due to U.S. restrictions?
Despite U.S. semiconductor restrictions, Deepseek has managed to develop competitive AI models using less powerful hardware efficiently.
What are the implications of Deepseek's success?
Deepseek's breakthrough raises questions about the future of AI competition, the viability of open-source models, and the impact on U.S. technological leadership.
What role does open-source play in AI development?
Open-source models like Deepseek's could democratize AI development, allowing smaller teams to build on existing models without large capital investments.
Why is the global tech landscape changing?
Deepseek's advancements may encourage a shift towards open-source models, impacting the competitive landscape for AI development across nations.
What are the concerns over AI models developed in China?
Models from China may adhere to state-imposed values and censorship, raising ethical concerns about the information they provide.
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- 00:00:00China's latest AI
- 00:00:01breakthrough has leapfrogged
- 00:00:03the world.
- 00:00:04I think we should take the
- 00:00:05development out of China
- 00:00:06very, very seriously.
- 00:00:08A game changing move that
- 00:00:09does not come from OpenAI,
- 00:00:11Google or Meta.
- 00:00:13There is a new model that
- 00:00:14has all of the valley
- 00:00:16buzzing.
- 00:00:17But from a Chinese lab
- 00:00:18called Deepseek.
- 00:00:20It's opened a lot of eyes of
- 00:00:22like what is actually
- 00:00:23happening in AI in China.
- 00:00:25What took Google and OpenAI
- 00:00:26years and hundreds of
- 00:00:27millions of dollars to
- 00:00:28build... Deepseek says took
- 00:00:30it just two months and less
- 00:00:32than $6 million dollars.
- 00:00:34They have the best open
- 00:00:35source model, and all the
- 00:00:37American developers are
- 00:00:38building on that.
- 00:00:39I'm Deirdre Bosa with the
- 00:00:40tech check take... China's
- 00:00:42AI breakthrough.
- 00:00:53It was a technological leap
- 00:00:55that shocked Silicon Valley.
- 00:00:57A newly unveiled free,
- 00:00:59open-source AI model that
- 00:01:01beats some of the most
- 00:01:02powerful ones on the market.
- 00:01:03But it wasn't a new launch
- 00:01:04from OpenAI or model
- 00:01:06announcement from Anthropic.
- 00:01:07This one was built in the
- 00:01:09East by a Chinese research
- 00:01:11lab called Deepseek.
- 00:01:13And the details behind its
- 00:01:14development stunned top AI
- 00:01:16researchers here in the U.S.
- 00:01:17First-the cost.
- 00:01:19The AI lab reportedly spent
- 00:01:20just $5.6 million dollars to
- 00:01:22build Deepseek version 3.
- 00:01:24Compare that to OpenAI,
- 00:01:26which is spending $5 billion
- 00:01:27a year, and Google,
- 00:01:28which expects capital
- 00:01:30expenditures in 2024 to soar
- 00:01:32to over $50 billion.
- 00:01:34And then there's Microsoft
- 00:01:35that shelled out more than
- 00:01:36$13 billion just to invest
- 00:01:39in OpenAI.
- 00:01:40But even more stunning how
- 00:01:42Deepseek's scrap pier model
- 00:01:43was able to outperform the
- 00:01:45lavishly-funded American
- 00:01:46ones.
- 00:01:47To see the Deepseek,
- 00:01:49new model. It's super
- 00:01:51impressive in terms of both
- 00:01:52how they have really
- 00:01:53effectively done an
- 00:01:55open-source model that does
- 00:01:56what is this inference time
- 00:01:58compute. And it's super
- 00:01:59compute efficient.
- 00:02:00It beat Meta's Llama,
- 00:02:02OpenAI's GPT 4-O and
- 00:02:04Anthropic's Claude Sonnet
- 00:02:053.5 on accuracy on
- 00:02:07wide-ranging tests.
- 00:02:08A subset of 500 math
- 00:02:09problems, an AI math
- 00:02:11evaluation, coding
- 00:02:12competitions, and a test of
- 00:02:14spotting and fixing bugs in
- 00:02:16code. Quickly following that
- 00:02:18up with a new reasoning
- 00:02:19model called R1,
- 00:02:20which just as easily
- 00:02:22outperformed OpenAI's
- 00:02:23cutting-edge o1 in some of
- 00:02:25those third-party tests.
- 00:02:26Today we released Humanity's
- 00:02:29Last Exam, which is a new
- 00:02:31evaluation or benchmark of
- 00:02:32AI models that we produced
- 00:02:34by getting math,
- 00:02:36physics, biology,
- 00:02:37chemistry professors to
- 00:02:39provide the hardest
- 00:02:40questions they could
- 00:02:41possibly imagine. Deepseek,
- 00:02:42which is the leading Chinese
- 00:02:44AI lab, their model is
- 00:02:47actually the top performing,
- 00:02:48or roughly on par with the
- 00:02:50best American models.
- 00:02:51They accomplished all that
- 00:02:52despite the strict
- 00:02:53semiconductor restrictions
- 00:02:54that the U.S . government
- 00:02:55has imposed on China,
- 00:02:57which has essentially
- 00:02:58shackled the amount of
- 00:02:59computing power. Washington
- 00:03:01has drawn a hard line
- 00:03:02against China in the AI
- 00:03:03race. Cutting the country
- 00:03:05off from receiving America's
- 00:03:06most powerful chips like...
- 00:03:08Nvidia's H-100 GPUs.
- 00:03:10Those were once thought to
- 00:03:11be essential to building a
- 00:03:13competitive AI model.
- 00:03:15With startups and big tech
- 00:03:16firms alike scrambling to
- 00:03:17get their hands on any
- 00:03:18available. But Deepseek
- 00:03:20turned that on its head.
- 00:03:21Side-stepping the rules by
- 00:03:22using Nvidia's less
- 00:03:24performant H-800s to build
- 00:03:27the latest model and showing
- 00:03:29that the chip export
- 00:03:30controls were not the
- 00:03:31chokehold D.C. intended.
- 00:03:33They
- 00:03:33were able to take whatever
- 00:03:34hardware they were trained
- 00:03:36on, but use it way more
- 00:03:37efficiently.
- 00:03:38But just who's behind Deep
- 00:03:40seek anyway? Despite its
- 00:03:42breakthrough, very,
- 00:03:43very little is known about
- 00:03:45its lab and its founder,
- 00:03:46Liang Wenfeng.
- 00:03:48According to Chinese media
- 00:03:49reports, Deepseek was born
- 00:03:50out of a Chinese hedge fund
- 00:03:52called High Flyer Quant.
- 00:03:53That manages about $8
- 00:03:55billion in assets.
- 00:03:56The mission, on its
- 00:03:57developer site, it reads
- 00:03:58simply: "unravel the mystery
- 00:04:00of AGI with curiosity.
- 00:04:03Answer the essential
- 00:04:04question with long-termism."
- 00:04:06The leading American AI
- 00:04:08startups, meanwhile – OpenAI
- 00:04:09and Anthropic – they have
- 00:04:11detailed charters and
- 00:04:12constitutions that lay out
- 00:04:13their principles and their
- 00:04:14founding missions,
- 00:04:15like these sections on AI
- 00:04:17safety and responsibility.
- 00:04:19Despite several attempts to
- 00:04:20reach someone at Deepeseek,
- 00:04:22we never got a response.
- 00:04:24How did they actually
- 00:04:26assemble this talent?
- 00:04:27How did they assemble all
- 00:04:28the hardware? How did they
- 00:04:29assemble the data to do all
- 00:04:30this? We don't know, and
- 00:04:32it's never been publicized,
- 00:04:33and hopefully we can learn
- 00:04:34that.
- 00:04:35But the mystery brings into
- 00:04:36sharp relief just how urgent
- 00:04:38and complex the AI face off
- 00:04:40against China has become.
- 00:04:42Because it's not just
- 00:04:43Deepseek. Other,
- 00:04:44more well -known Chinese AI
- 00:04:45models have carved out
- 00:04:47positions in the race with
- 00:04:48limited resources as well.
- 00:04:50Kai Fu Lee, he's one of the
- 00:04:51leading AI researchers in
- 00:04:53China, formerly leading
- 00:04:54Google's operations there.
- 00:04:55Now, his startup,
- 00:04:57"Zero One Dot AI," it's
- 00:04:59attracting attention,
- 00:05:00becoming a unicorn just
- 00:05:01eight months after founding
- 00:05:02and bringing in almost $14
- 00:05:04million in revenue in 2024.
- 00:05:06The thing that shocks my
- 00:05:08friends in the Silicon
- 00:05:09Valley is not just our
- 00:05:10performance, but that we
- 00:05:12trained the model with only
- 00:05:14$3 million, and GPT-4 was
- 00:05:17trained by $80 to $100
- 00:05:18million.
- 00:05:19Trained with just three
- 00:05:20million dollars. Alibaba's
- 00:05:22Qwen, meanwhile, cut costs
- 00:05:23by as much as 85% on its
- 00:05:25large language models in a
- 00:05:27bid to attract more
- 00:05:27developers and signaling
- 00:05:29that the race is on.
- 00:05:37China's breakthrough
- 00:05:38undermines the lead that our
- 00:05:40AI labs were once thought to
- 00:05:42have. In early 2024,
- 00:05:44former Google CEO Eric
- 00:05:45Schmidt. He predicted China
- 00:05:46was 2 to 3 years behind the
- 00:05:48U.S . in AI.
- 00:05:50But now , Schmidt is singing
- 00:05:51a different tune.
- 00:05:52Here he is on ABC's "This
- 00:05:54Week."
- 00:05:55I used to think we were a
- 00:05:56couple of years ahead of
- 00:05:57China, but China has caught
- 00:05:59up in the last six months in
- 00:06:01a way that is remarkable.
- 00:06:02The fact of the matter is
- 00:06:03that a couple of the Chinese
- 00:06:06programs, one,
- 00:06:07for example, is called Deep
- 00:06:08seek, looks like they've
- 00:06:10caught up.
- 00:06:11It raises major questions
- 00:06:12about just how wide open
- 00:06:15AI's moat really is.
- 00:06:16Back when OpenAI released
- 00:06:17ChatGPT to the world in
- 00:06:19November of 2022,
- 00:06:21it was unprecedented and
- 00:06:22uncontested.
- 00:06:24Now, the company faces not
- 00:06:25only the international
- 00:06:26competition from Chinese
- 00:06:27models, but fierce domestic
- 00:06:29competition from Google's
- 00:06:30Gemini, Anthropic's Claude,
- 00:06:32and Meta's open source Llama
- 00:06:33Model. And now the game has
- 00:06:35changed. The widespread
- 00:06:36availability of powerful
- 00:06:38open-source models allows
- 00:06:40developers to skip the
- 00:06:41demanding, capital-intensive
- 00:06:43steps of building and
- 00:06:45training models themselves.
- 00:06:46Now they can build on top of
- 00:06:48existing models,
- 00:06:49making it significantly
- 00:06:51easier to jump to the
- 00:06:52frontier, that is the front
- 00:06:53of the race, with a smaller
- 00:06:55budget and a smaller team.
- 00:06:57In the last two weeks,
- 00:06:59AI research teams have
- 00:07:01really opened their eyes and
- 00:07:04have become way more
- 00:07:05ambitious on what's possible
- 00:07:07with a lot less capital.
- 00:07:09So previously,
- 00:07:11to get to the frontier,
- 00:07:13you would have to think
- 00:07:13about hundreds of millions
- 00:07:14of dollars of investment and
- 00:07:16perhaps a billion dollars of
- 00:07:17investment. What Deepseek
- 00:07:18has now done here in Silicon
- 00:07:19Valley is it's opened our
- 00:07:21eyes to what you can
- 00:07:22actually accomplish with 10,
- 00:07:2415, 20, or 30 million
- 00:07:26dollars.
- 00:07:27It also means any company,
- 00:07:28like OpenAI, that claims the
- 00:07:30frontier today ...could lose
- 00:07:32it tomorrow. That's how
- 00:07:34Deepseek was able to catch
- 00:07:35up so quickly. It started
- 00:07:36building on the existing
- 00:07:37frontier of AI,
- 00:07:39its approach focusing on
- 00:07:40iterating on existing
- 00:07:41technology rather than
- 00:07:43reinventing the wheel.
- 00:07:44They can take a really good
- 00:07:47big model and use a process
- 00:07:49called distillation. And
- 00:07:50what distillation is,
- 00:07:51basically you use a very
- 00:07:53large model to help your
- 00:07:56small model get smart at the
- 00:07:57thing that you want it to
- 00:07:58get smart at. And that's
- 00:07:59actually a very cost
- 00:08:00efficient.
- 00:08:01It closed the gap by using
- 00:08:03available data sets,
- 00:08:04applying innovative tweaks,
- 00:08:06and leveraging existing
- 00:08:07models. So much so,
- 00:08:09that Deepseek's model has
- 00:08:10run into an identity crisis.
- 00:08:13It's convinced that its
- 00:08:14ChatGPT, when you ask it
- 00:08:16directly, "what model are
- 00:08:17you?" Deepseek responds...
- 00:08:19I'm an AI language model
- 00:08:20created by OpenAI,
- 00:08:22specifically based on the
- 00:08:23GPT -4 architecture.
- 00:08:25Leading OpenAI CEO Sam
- 00:08:26Altman to post in a thinly
- 00:08:28veiled shot at Deepseek just
- 00:08:30days after the model was
- 00:08:31released. "It's relatively
- 00:08:33easy to copy something that
- 00:08:34you know works.
- 00:08:35It's extremely hard to do
- 00:08:36something new,
- 00:08:37risky, and difficult when
- 00:08:39you don't know if it will
- 00:08:40work." But that's not
- 00:08:42exactly what Deepseek did.
- 00:08:44It emulated GPT by
- 00:08:45leveraging OpenAI's existing
- 00:08:47outputs and architecture
- 00:08:48principles, while quietly
- 00:08:49introducing its own
- 00:08:50enhancements, really
- 00:08:51blurring the line between
- 00:08:53itself and ChatGPT.
- 00:08:55It all puts pressure on a
- 00:08:56closed source leader like
- 00:08:57OpenAI to justify its
- 00:08:58costlier model as more
- 00:09:00potentially nimbler
- 00:09:01competitors emerge.
- 00:09:02Everybody copies everybody
- 00:09:03in this field.
- 00:09:05You can say Google did the
- 00:09:07transformer first. It's not
- 00:09:08OpenAI and OpenAI just
- 00:09:10copied it. Google built the
- 00:09:12first large language models.
- 00:09:13They didn't productise it,
- 00:09:14but OpenAI did it into a
- 00:09:16productized way. So you can
- 00:09:19say all this in many ways.
- 00:09:21It doesn't matter.
- 00:09:22So if everyone is copying
- 00:09:24one another, it raises the
- 00:09:25question, is massive spend
- 00:09:28on individual L-L-Ms even a
- 00:09:31good investment anymore?
- 00:09:32Now, no one has as much at
- 00:09:34stake as OpenAI.
- 00:09:35The startup raised over $6
- 00:09:36billion in its last funding
- 00:09:38round alone. But,
- 00:09:39the company has yet to turn
- 00:09:41a profit. And with its core
- 00:09:43business centered on
- 00:09:44building the models -
- 00:09:45it's much more exposed than
- 00:09:46companies like Google and
- 00:09:47Amazon, who have cloud and
- 00:09:49ad businesses bankrolling
- 00:09:51their spend. For OpenAI,
- 00:09:53reasoning will be key.
- 00:09:54A model that thinks before
- 00:09:56it generates a response,
- 00:09:57going beyond pattern
- 00:09:58recognition to analyze,
- 00:09:59draw logical conclusions,
- 00:10:01and solve really complex
- 00:10:02problems. For now,
- 00:10:04the startup's o1 reasoning
- 00:10:05model is still cutting edge.
- 00:10:08But for how long?
- 00:10:09Researchers at Berkeley
- 00:10:10showed that they could build
- 00:10:11a reasoning model for $450
- 00:10:13just last week. So you can
- 00:10:15actually create these models
- 00:10:16that do thinking for much,
- 00:10:18much less. You don't need
- 00:10:19those huge amounts of to
- 00:10:21pre-train the models. So I
- 00:10:22think the game is shifting.
- 00:10:24It means that staying on top
- 00:10:26may require as much
- 00:10:27creativity as capital.
- 00:10:29Deepseek's breakthrough also
- 00:10:31comes at a very tricky time
- 00:10:32for the AI darling.
- 00:10:33Just as OpenAI is moving to
- 00:10:35a for-profit model and
- 00:10:37facing unprecedented brain
- 00:10:39drain. Can it raise more
- 00:10:41money at ever higher
- 00:10:42valuations if the game is
- 00:10:43changing? As Chamath
- 00:10:44Palihapitiya puts it...
- 00:10:46let me say the quiet part
- 00:10:47out loud: AI model building
- 00:10:49is a money trap.
- 00:10:58Those trip restrictions from
- 00:10:59the U.S . government, they
- 00:11:00were intended to slow down
- 00:11:03the race. To keep American
- 00:11:04tech on American ground,
- 00:11:06to stay ahead in the race.
- 00:11:07What we want to do is we
- 00:11:08want to keep it in this
- 00:11:09country. China is a
- 00:11:10competitor and others are
- 00:11:11competitors.
- 00:11:12So instead, the restrictions
- 00:11:14might have been just what
- 00:11:15China needed.
- 00:11:16Necessity is the mother of
- 00:11:17invention.
- 00:11:19B ecause they had to go
- 00:11:22figure out workarounds,
- 00:11:25they actually ended up
- 00:11:25building something a lot
- 00:11:26more efficient.
- 00:11:27It's really remarkable the
- 00:11:28amount of progress they've
- 00:11:29made with as little capital
- 00:11:32as it's taken them to make
- 00:11:33that progress.
- 00:11:34It drove them to get
- 00:11:35creative. With huge
- 00:11:36implications. Deepseek is an
- 00:11:38open-source model, meaning
- 00:11:39that developers have full
- 00:11:41access and they can
- 00:11:42customize its weights or
- 00:11:43fine -tune it to their
- 00:11:44liking.
- 00:11:45It's known that once open
- 00:11:46-source is caught up or
- 00:11:48improved over closed source
- 00:11:49software, all developers
- 00:11:52migrate to that.
- 00:11:53But
- 00:11:53key is that it's also
- 00:11:55inexpensive. The lower the
- 00:11:57cost, the more attractive it
- 00:11:58is for developers to adopt.
- 00:12:00The bottom line is our
- 00:12:01inference cost is 10 cents
- 00:12:03per million tokens,
- 00:12:05and that's 1/30th of what
- 00:12:07the typical comparable model
- 00:12:08charges. Where's it going?
- 00:12:10It's well, the 10 cents
- 00:12:11would lead to building apps
- 00:12:14for much lower costs.
- 00:12:15So if you wanted to build a
- 00:12:17u.com or Perplexity or some
- 00:12:19other app, you can either
- 00:12:21pay OpenAI $4.40 per million
- 00:12:23tokens, or if you have our
- 00:12:26model, it costs you just 10
- 00:12:27cents.
- 00:12:28It could mean that the
- 00:12:29prevailing model in global
- 00:12:30AI may be open -source,
- 00:12:32as organizations and nations
- 00:12:34come around to the idea that
- 00:12:35collaboration and
- 00:12:36decentralization,
- 00:12:37those things can drive
- 00:12:38innovation faster and more
- 00:12:40efficiently than
- 00:12:41proprietary, closed
- 00:12:42ecosystems. A cheaper,
- 00:12:44more efficient, widely
- 00:12:45adopted open -source model
- 00:12:47from China that could lead
- 00:12:49to a major shift in
- 00:12:51dynamics.
- 00:12:52That's more dangerous,
- 00:12:54because then they get to own
- 00:12:56the mindshare, the
- 00:12:58ecosystem.
- 00:12:59In other words, the adoption
- 00:13:00of a Chinese open-source
- 00:13:01model at scale that could
- 00:13:02undermine U.S . leadership
- 00:13:04while embedding China more
- 00:13:06deeply into the fabric of
- 00:13:07global tech infrastructure.
- 00:13:09There's always a point where
- 00:13:10open source can stop being
- 00:13:12open -source, too,
- 00:13:13right? So, the licenses are
- 00:13:15very favorable today,
- 00:13:16but-it could close it.
- 00:13:17Exactly, over time,
- 00:13:19they can always change the
- 00:13:20license. So, it's important
- 00:13:22that we actually have people
- 00:13:24here in America building,
- 00:13:26and that's why Meta is so
- 00:13:27important.
- 00:13:28Another consequence of
- 00:13:29China's AI breakthrough is
- 00:13:31giving its Communist Party
- 00:13:32control of the narrative.
- 00:13:34AI models built in China t
- 00:13:35hey're forced to adhere to a
- 00:13:36certain set of rules set by
- 00:13:37the state. They must embody
- 00:13:39"core socialist values."
- 00:13:41Studies have shown that
- 00:13:42models created by Tencent
- 00:13:44and Alibaba, they will
- 00:13:45censor historical events
- 00:13:46like Tiananmen Square,
- 00:13:48deny human rights abuse,
- 00:13:50and filter criticism of
- 00:13:51Chinese political leaders.
- 00:13:53That contest is about
- 00:13:54whether we're going to have
- 00:13:55democratic AI informed by
- 00:13:56democratic values,
- 00:13:58built to serve democratic
- 00:14:00purposes, or we're going to
- 00:14:01end up with with autocratic
- 00:14:03AI.
- 00:14:03If developers really begin
- 00:14:04to adopt these models en
- 00:14:06masse because they're more
- 00:14:07efficient, that could have a
- 00:14:08serious ripple effect.
- 00:14:10Trickle down to even
- 00:14:11consumer-facing AI
- 00:14:12applications, and influence
- 00:14:13how trustworthy those
- 00:14:15AI-generated responses from
- 00:14:16chatbots really are.
- 00:14:18And there's really only two
- 00:14:19countries right now in the
- 00:14:20world that can build this at
- 00:14:22scale, you know,
- 00:14:23and that is the U.S .
- 00:14:25and China, and so,
- 00:14:27you know, the consequences
- 00:14:28of the stakes in and around
- 00:14:30this are just enormous.
- 00:14:32Enormous stakes,
- 00:14:33enormous consequences,
- 00:14:35and hanging in the balance:
- 00:14:37A merica's lead.
- 00:14:42For a topic so complex and
- 00:14:44new, we turn to an expert
- 00:14:45who's actually building in
- 00:14:47the space, and
- 00:14:48model-agnostic. Perplexity
- 00:14:50co-founder and CEO Arvind
- 00:14:51Srinivas – who you heard
- 00:14:52from throughout our piece.
- 00:14:54He sat down with me for more
- 00:14:55than 30 minutes to discuss
- 00:14:56Deepseek and its
- 00:14:57implications, as well as
- 00:14:59Perplexity's roadmap.
- 00:15:00We think it's worth
- 00:15:01listening to that whole
- 00:15:02conversation, so here it is.
- 00:15:04So first I want to know what
- 00:15:05the stakes are. What,
- 00:15:07like describe the AI race
- 00:15:09between China and the U.S .
- 00:15:11and what's at stake.
- 00:15:13Okay, so first of all,
- 00:15:14China has a lot of
- 00:15:16disadvantages in competing
- 00:15:18with the U.S. Number one is,
- 00:15:21the fact that they don't get
- 00:15:22access to all the hardware
- 00:15:24that we have access to here.
- 00:15:27So they're kind of working
- 00:15:28with lower end GPUs than us.
- 00:15:31I t's almost like working
- 00:15:32with the previous generation
- 00:15:33GPUs, scrappily.
- 00:15:35S o and the fact that the
- 00:15:38bigger models tend to be
- 00:15:39more smarter, naturally puts
- 00:15:42them at a disadvantage.
- 00:15:43But the flip side of this is
- 00:15:46that necessity is the mother
- 00:15:47of invention, because they
- 00:15:51had to go figure out
- 00:15:53workarounds. They actually
- 00:15:55ended up building something
- 00:15:56a lot more efficient.
- 00:15:58It's like saying, "hey look,
- 00:15:59you guys really got to get a
- 00:16:01top notch model, and I'm not
- 00:16:04going to give you resources
- 00:16:05and figure out something,"
- 00:16:07right? Unless it's
- 00:16:08impossible, unless it's
- 00:16:09mathematically possible to
- 00:16:11prove that it's impossible
- 00:16:13to do so, you can always try
- 00:16:14to like come up with
- 00:16:15something more efficient.
- 00:16:17But that is likely to make
- 00:16:20them come up with a more
- 00:16:21efficient solution than
- 00:16:22America. And of course,
- 00:16:24they have open -sourced it,
- 00:16:25so we can still adopt
- 00:16:27something like that here.
- 00:16:28But that kind of talent
- 00:16:30they're building to do that
- 00:16:32will become an edge for them
- 00:16:33over time right?
- 00:16:35T he leading open-source
- 00:16:36model in America's Meta's
- 00:16:38Llama family. It's really
- 00:16:40good. It's kind of like a
- 00:16:41model that you can run on
- 00:16:42your computer.
- 00:16:43B ut even though it got
- 00:16:45pretty close to GBT-4,
- 00:16:48and at the time of its
- 00:16:50release, the model that was
- 00:16:51closest in quality was the
- 00:16:54giant 405B, not the 70B that
- 00:16:56you could run on your
- 00:16:56computer. And so there was
- 00:16:59still a not a small,
- 00:17:01cheap, fast, efficient,
- 00:17:02open-source model that
- 00:17:04rivaled the most powerful
- 00:17:06closed models from OpenAI,
- 00:17:07Anthropic. Nothing from
- 00:17:09America, nothing from
- 00:17:11Mistral AI either.
- 00:17:12And then these guys come
- 00:17:13out, with like a crazy model
- 00:17:16that's like 10x cheaper and
- 00:17:17API pricing than GPT -4 and
- 00:17:1915x cheaper than Sonnet,
- 00:17:21I believe. Really fast,
- 00:17:2316 tokens per second–60
- 00:17:24tokens per second,
- 00:17:26and pretty much equal or
- 00:17:29better in some benchmarks
- 00:17:30and worse in some others.
- 00:17:31But like roughly in that
- 00:17:32ballpark of 4-O's quality.
- 00:17:35And they did it all with
- 00:17:36like approximately just 20,
- 00:17:3948, 800 GPUs, which is
- 00:17:41actually equivalent to like
- 00:17:42somewhere around 1,500 or
- 00:17:441,000 to 1,500 H100 GPUs.
- 00:17:47That's like 20 to 30x lower
- 00:17:50than the amount of GPUs that
- 00:17:52GPT -4s is usually trained
- 00:17:53on, and roughly $5 million
- 00:17:56in total compute budget.
- 00:17:59They did it with so little
- 00:18:00money and such an amazing
- 00:18:02model, gave it away for
- 00:18:04free, wrote a technical
- 00:18:04paper, and definitely it
- 00:18:06makes us all question like,
- 00:18:09"okay, like if we have the
- 00:18:10equivalent of Doge for like
- 00:18:12model training,
- 00:18:14this is an example of that,
- 00:18:15right?"
- 00:18:16Right. Yeah. Efficiency,
- 00:18:18is what you're getting at.
- 00:18:19So, fraction of the price,
- 00:18:21fraction of the time.
- 00:18:22Yeah. Dumb down GPUs
- 00:18:23essentially. What was your
- 00:18:25surprise when you understood
- 00:18:27what they had done.
- 00:18:28So my surprise was that when
- 00:18:30I actually went through the
- 00:18:31technical paper,
- 00:18:33the amount of clever
- 00:18:35solutions they came up with,
- 00:18:38first of all, they train a
- 00:18:39mixture of experts model.
- 00:18:40It's not that easy to train,
- 00:18:43there's a lot of like,
- 00:18:44the main reason people find
- 00:18:46it difficult to catch up
- 00:18:46with OpenAI, especially on
- 00:18:48the MoE architecture,
- 00:18:49is that there's a lot of,
- 00:18:52irregular loss spikes.
- 00:18:54The numerics are not stable,
- 00:18:56so often, like,
- 00:18:57you've got to restart the
- 00:18:59training checkpoint again,
- 00:19:00and a lot of infrastructure
- 00:19:01needs to be built for that.
- 00:19:03And they came up with very
- 00:19:04clever solutions to balance
- 00:19:06that without adding
- 00:19:07additional hacks.
- 00:19:09T hey also figured out
- 00:19:12floating point-8 bit
- 00:19:13training, at least for some
- 00:19:15of the numerics. And they
- 00:19:17cleverly figured out which
- 00:19:18has to be in higher
- 00:19:19precision, which has to be
- 00:19:20in lower precision. T o my
- 00:19:22knowledge, I think floating
- 00:19:24point-8 training is not that
- 00:19:26well understood. Most of the
- 00:19:27training in America is still
- 00:19:28running in FP16.
- 00:19:30Maybe OpenAI and some of the
- 00:19:31people are trying to explore
- 00:19:32that, but it's pretty
- 00:19:33difficult to get it right.
- 00:19:35So because necessity is the
- 00:19:36mother of invention, because
- 00:19:37they don't have that much
- 00:19:38memory, that many GPUs.
- 00:19:40T hey figured out a lot
- 00:19:41of
- 00:19:42numerical stability stuff
- 00:19:44that makes their training
- 00:19:45work. And they claimed in
- 00:19:46the paper that for majority
- 00:19:48of the training was stable.
- 00:19:50Which means what? They can
- 00:19:51always rerun those training
- 00:19:53runs again and on more data
- 00:19:57or better data. And then,
- 00:20:00it only trained for 60 days.
- 00:20:02So that's pretty amazing.
- 00:20:04Safe to say you were
- 00:20:05surprised.
- 00:20:05So I was definitely
- 00:20:06surprised. Usually the
- 00:20:08wisdom or, like I wouldn't
- 00:20:11say, wisdom, the myth, is
- 00:20:12that Chinese are just good
- 00:20:14at copying. So if we start
- 00:20:16stop writing research papers
- 00:20:18in America, if we stop
- 00:20:20describing the details of
- 00:20:22our infrastructure or
- 00:20:23architecture, and stop open
- 00:20:25sourcing, they're not going
- 00:20:27to be able to catch up. But
- 00:20:29the reality is, some of the
- 00:20:30details in Deep seek v3 are
- 00:20:33so good that I wouldn't be
- 00:20:34surprised if Meta took a
- 00:20:36look at it and incorporated
- 00:20:38some of that –tried to copy
- 00:20:38them . Right.
- 00:20:41I wouldn't necessarily say
- 00:20:42copy. It's all like,
- 00:20:43you know, sharing science,
- 00:20:45engineering, but the point
- 00:20:47is like, it's changing.
- 00:20:48Like, it's not like China is
- 00:20:50just copycat. They're also
- 00:20:51innovating.
- 00:20:52We don't know exactly the
- 00:20:53data that it was trained on
- 00:20:55right? Even though it's open
- 00:20:56-source, we know some of the
- 00:20:57ways and things that was
- 00:20:59trained up, but not
- 00:20:59everything. And there's this
- 00:21:01idea that it was trained on
- 00:21:02public ChatGPT outputs,
- 00:21:05which would mean it just was
- 00:21:06copied. But you're saying it
- 00:21:07goes beyond that? There's
- 00:21:08real innovation in there?
- 00:21:09Yeah,
- 00:21:09look, I mean, they've
- 00:21:11trained it on 14.8 trillion
- 00:21:13tokens. T he internet has so
- 00:21:15much ChatGPT. If you
- 00:21:16actually go to any LinkedIn
- 00:21:18post or X post.
- 00:21:19Now, most of the comments
- 00:21:21are written by AI. You can
- 00:21:22just see it, like people are
- 00:21:24just trying to write. In
- 00:21:25fact, even with an X,
- 00:21:28there's like a Grok tweet
- 00:21:30enhancer, or in LinkedIn
- 00:21:31there's an AI enhancer,
- 00:21:33or in Google Docs and Word.
- 00:21:37There are AI tools to like
- 00:21:38rewrite your stuff. So if
- 00:21:40you do something there and
- 00:21:41copy paste somewhere on the
- 00:21:43internet, it's naturally
- 00:21:44going to have some elements
- 00:21:45of a ChatGPT like training,
- 00:21:48right? And there's a lot of
- 00:21:49people who don't even bother
- 00:21:51to strip away that I'm a
- 00:21:53language model, right?
- 00:21:55–part. So, they just paste
- 00:21:56it somewhere and it's very
- 00:21:58difficult to control for
- 00:21:59this. I think xAI has spoken
- 00:22:01about this too, so I
- 00:22:02wouldn't like disregard
- 00:22:04their technical
- 00:22:05accomplishment just because
- 00:22:07like for some prompts like
- 00:22:08who are you, or like which
- 00:22:10model are you at response
- 00:22:11like that? It doesn't even
- 00:22:12matter in my opinion.
- 00:22:13For a long
- 00:22:13time we thought, I don't
- 00:22:14know if you agreed with us,
- 00:22:15China was behind in AI,
- 00:22:17what does this do to that
- 00:22:18race? Can we say that China
- 00:22:20is catching up or has it
- 00:22:22caught up?
- 00:22:23I mean, like if we say the
- 00:22:25matter is catching up to
- 00:22:27OpenAI and Anthropic,
- 00:22:28if you make that claim,
- 00:22:31then the same claim can be
- 00:22:32made for China catching up
- 00:22:33to America.
- 00:22:34A lot of papers from China
- 00:22:36that have tried to replicate
- 00:22:37o1, in fact, I saw more
- 00:22:39papers from China after o1
- 00:22:42announcement that tried to
- 00:22:43replicate it than from
- 00:22:44America. Like,
- 00:22:46and the amount of compute
- 00:22:48Deepseek has access to is
- 00:22:50roughly similar to what PhD
- 00:22:52students in the U.S .
- 00:22:54have access to. By the way,
- 00:22:55this is not meant to
- 00:22:56criticize others like even
- 00:22:57for ourselves, like,
- 00:22:59you know, I for Perplexity,
- 00:23:00we decided not to train
- 00:23:01models because we thought
- 00:23:02it's like a very expensive
- 00:23:03thing. A nd we thought like,
- 00:23:07there's no way to catch up
- 00:23:08with the rest.
- 00:23:09But will you incorporate
- 00:23:10Deepseek into Perplexity?
- 00:23:12Oh, we already are beginning
- 00:23:13to use it.
- 00:23:15I think they have an API,
- 00:23:16and we're also they have
- 00:23:18open source weights, so we
- 00:23:18can host it ourselves, too.
- 00:23:20And it's good to, like,
- 00:23:21try to start using that
- 00:23:23because it's actually,
- 00:23:24allows us to do a lot of the
- 00:23:25things at lower cost.
- 00:23:27But what I'm kind of
- 00:23:28thinking is beyond that,
- 00:23:30which is like, okay, if
- 00:23:31these guys actually could
- 00:23:33train such a great model
- 00:23:34with, good team like,
- 00:23:37and there's no excuse
- 00:23:38anymore for companies in the
- 00:23:39U.S., including ourselves,
- 00:23:41to like, not try to do
- 00:23:42something like that.
- 00:23:43You hear a lot in public
- 00:23:44from a lot of, you know,
- 00:23:45thought leaders in
- 00:23:46generative AI, both on the
- 00:23:47research side, on the
- 00:23:48entrepreneurial side,
- 00:23:50like Elon Musk and others
- 00:23:51say that China can't catch
- 00:23:53up. Like it's the stakes are
- 00:23:55too big. The geopolitical
- 00:23:56stakes, whoever dominates AI
- 00:23:58is going to kind of dominate
- 00:23:59the economy, dominate the
- 00:24:01world. You know,
- 00:24:02it's been talked about in
- 00:24:03those massive terms. Are you
- 00:24:04worried about what China
- 00:24:06proved it was able to do?
- 00:24:08Firstly, I don't know if
- 00:24:09Elon ever said China can't
- 00:24:10catch up.
- 00:24:11I'm not – just the threat of
- 00:24:13China. He's only identified
- 00:24:14the threat of letting China,
- 00:24:16and you know, Sam Altman has
- 00:24:17said similar things, we
- 00:24:18can't let China win the
- 00:24:20race.
- 00:24:20You know, it's all I think
- 00:24:22you got to decouple what
- 00:24:25someone like Sam says to
- 00:24:26like what is in his
- 00:24:27self-interest. Right?
- 00:24:30Look, I think the my point
- 00:24:34is, like, whatever you did
- 00:24:37to not let them catch up
- 00:24:38didn't even matter. They
- 00:24:40ended up catching up anyway.
- 00:24:42Necessity is the mother of
- 00:24:43invention
- 00:24:44like you said. And you it's
- 00:24:46actually, you know what's
- 00:24:48more dangerous than trying
- 00:24:49to do all the things to not
- 00:24:51let them catch up and, you
- 00:24:52know, all this stuff is
- 00:24:54what's more dangerous is
- 00:24:55they have the best
- 00:24:56open-source model. And all
- 00:24:57the American developers are
- 00:24:59building on that. Right.
- 00:25:00That's more dangerous
- 00:25:02because then they get to own
- 00:25:05the mindshare, the
- 00:25:06ecosystem.
- 00:25:07If the entire American AI
- 00:25:09ecosystem look,
- 00:25:10in general, it's known that
- 00:25:12once open-source is caught
- 00:25:13up or improved over closed
- 00:25:15source software, all
- 00:25:18developers migrate to that.
- 00:25:20It's historically known,
- 00:25:21right?
- 00:25:21When Llama was being built
- 00:25:23and becoming more widely
- 00:25:24used, there was this
- 00:25:25question should we trust
- 00:25:26Zuckerberg? But now the
- 00:25:27question is should we trust
- 00:25:29China? That's a very–You
- 00:25:30should
- 00:25:30trust open-source, that's
- 00:25:31the like it's not about who,
- 00:25:33is it Zuckerberg, or is it.
- 00:25:35Does it matter then if it's
- 00:25:37Chinese, if it's
- 00:25:37open-source?
- 00:25:39Look, it doesn't matter in
- 00:25:41the sense that you still
- 00:25:43have full control.
- 00:25:45Y ou run it as your own,
- 00:25:47like set of weights on your
- 00:25:48own computer, you are in
- 00:25:50charge of the model. But,
- 00:25:52it's not a great look for
- 00:25:54our own, like, talent to
- 00:25:57rely on software built by
- 00:25:59others.
- 00:26:00E ven if it's open-source,
- 00:26:01there's always, like, a
- 00:26:04point where open-source can
- 00:26:05stop being open-source, too,
- 00:26:07right? So the licenses are
- 00:26:09very favorable today,
- 00:26:10but if – you can close it –
- 00:26:11exactly, over time,
- 00:26:13they can always change the
- 00:26:15license. So, it's important
- 00:26:16that we actually have people
- 00:26:18here in America building,
- 00:26:20and that's why Meta is so
- 00:26:21important. Like I look I
- 00:26:23still think Meta will build
- 00:26:25a better model than Deep
- 00:26:26seek v3 and open-source it,
- 00:26:28and they'll call it Llama 4
- 00:26:29or 3 point something,
- 00:26:31doesn't matter, but I think
- 00:26:33what is more key is that we
- 00:26:35don't try to focus all our
- 00:26:38energy on banning them,
- 00:26:41stopping them, and just try
- 00:26:42to outcompete and win them.
- 00:26:43That's just that's just the
- 00:26:44American way of doing things
- 00:26:45just be
- 00:26:46better. And it feels like
- 00:26:47there's, you know, we hear a
- 00:26:48lot more about these Chinese
- 00:26:49companies who are developing
- 00:26:51in a similar way, a lot more
- 00:26:52efficiently, a lot more cost
- 00:26:53effectively right? –Yeah,
- 00:26:55again, like, look,
- 00:26:56it's hard to fake scarcity,
- 00:26:58right? If you raise $10
- 00:27:01billion and you decide to
- 00:27:02spend 80% of it on a compute
- 00:27:04cluster, it's hard for you
- 00:27:06to come up with the exact
- 00:27:07same solution that someone
- 00:27:08with $5 million would do.
- 00:27:10And there's no point,
- 00:27:13no need to, like, sort of
- 00:27:14berate those who are putting
- 00:27:15more money. They're trying
- 00:27:17to do it as fast as they
- 00:27:18can.
- 00:27:18When we say open -source,
- 00:27:19there's so many different
- 00:27:20versions. Some people
- 00:27:21criticize Meta for not
- 00:27:22publishing everything,
- 00:27:23and even Deepseek itself
- 00:27:24isn't totally transparent.
- 00:27:26Yeah, you can go to the
- 00:27:27limits of open-source and
- 00:27:28say, I should exactly be
- 00:27:30able to replicate your
- 00:27:31training run. But first of
- 00:27:33all, how many people even
- 00:27:34have the resources to do
- 00:27:36that. And I think the amount
- 00:27:40of detail they've shared in
- 00:27:41the technical report,
- 00:27:43actually Meta did that too,
- 00:27:44by the way, Meta's Llama 3.3
- 00:27:46technical report is
- 00:27:47incredibly detailed,
- 00:27:48and very great for science.
- 00:27:51So the amount of details
- 00:27:52they get these people are
- 00:27:53sharing is already a lot
- 00:27:54more than what the other
- 00:27:56companies are doing right
- 00:27:57now.
- 00:27:57When you think about how
- 00:27:58much it costs Deepseek to do
- 00:27:59this, less than $6 million,
- 00:28:01I think about what OpenAI
- 00:28:03has spent to develop GPT
- 00:28:05models. What does that mean
- 00:28:07for the closed source model,
- 00:28:09ecosystem trajectory,
- 00:28:10momentum? What does it mean
- 00:28:12for OpenAI?
- 00:28:13I mean, it's very clear that
- 00:28:15we'll have an open-source
- 00:28:17version 4-O, or even better
- 00:28:19than that, and much cheaper
- 00:28:21than that open-source,
- 00:28:22like completely this year.
- 00:28:24Made by OpenAI?
- 00:28:26Probably not. Most likely
- 00:28:27not. And I don't think they
- 00:28:29care if it's not made by
- 00:28:30them. I think they've
- 00:28:32already moved to a new
- 00:28:33paradigm called the o1
- 00:28:34family of models.
- 00:28:38I looked at I can't like
- 00:28:41Ilya Sutskever came and
- 00:28:42said, pre-training is a
- 00:28:44wall, right?
- 00:28:45So, I mean, he didn't
- 00:28:48exactly use the word, but he
- 00:28:49clearly said–yeah–the age of
- 00:28:50pre-training is over.
- 00:28:51–many people have said that
- 00:28:52.
- 00:28:52Right? So, that doesn't mean
- 00:28:55scaling has hit a wall.
- 00:28:56I think we're scaling on
- 00:28:58different dimensions now.
- 00:28:59The amount of time model
- 00:29:00spends thinking at test
- 00:29:01time. Reinforcement
- 00:29:03learning, like trying to,
- 00:29:04like, make the model,
- 00:29:06okay, if it doesn't know
- 00:29:07what to do for a new prompt,
- 00:29:09it'll go and reason and
- 00:29:10collect data and interact
- 00:29:11with the world,
- 00:29:13use a bunch of tools.
- 00:29:14I think that's where things
- 00:29:15are headed, and I feel like
- 00:29:16OpenAI is more focused on
- 00:29:17that right now. Yeah.
- 00:29:19–I nstead of just the
- 00:29:20bigger, better model?
- 00:29:21Correct. –Reasoning
- 00:29:22capacities. But didn't you
- 00:29:23say that deep seek is likely
- 00:29:24to turn their attention to
- 00:29:25reasoning?
- 00:29:26100%, I think they will.
- 00:29:28A nd that's why I'm pretty
- 00:29:31excited about what they'll
- 00:29:32produce next.
- 00:29:34I guess that's then my
- 00:29:35question is sort of what's
- 00:29:37OpenAI's moat now?
- 00:29:39Well, I still think that,
- 00:29:41no one else has produced a
- 00:29:42system similar to the o1
- 00:29:45yet, exactly.
- 00:29:47I know that there's debates
- 00:29:49about whether o1 is actually
- 00:29:50worth it. Y ou know,
- 00:29:53on maybe a few prompts,
- 00:29:54it's really better. But like
- 00:29:55most of the times, it's not
- 00:29:56producing any differentiated
- 00:29:57output from Sonnet.
- 00:29:59But, at least the results
- 00:30:01they showed in o3 where,
- 00:30:03they had like,
- 00:30:05competitive coding
- 00:30:06performance and almost like
- 00:30:08an AI software engineer
- 00:30:09level.
- 00:30:10Isn't it just a matter of
- 00:30:11time, though, before the
- 00:30:12internet is filled with
- 00:30:13reasoning data that.
- 00:30:16–yeah– Deepseek.
- 00:30:17Again, it's possible.
- 00:30:19Nobody knows yet.
- 00:30:20Yeah. So until it's done,
- 00:30:23it's still uncertain right?
- 00:30:24Right. So maybe that
- 00:30:26uncertainty is their moat.
- 00:30:27T hat, like, no one else has
- 00:30:28the same, reasoning
- 00:30:30capability yet,
- 00:30:32but will by end of this
- 00:30:34year, will there be multiple
- 00:30:36players even in the
- 00:30:37reasoning arena?
- 00:30:38I absolutely think so.
- 00:30:40So are we seeing the
- 00:30:41commoditization of large
- 00:30:43language models?
- 00:30:44I think we will see a
- 00:30:45similar trajectory,
- 00:30:49just like how in
- 00:30:50pre-training and
- 00:30:51post-training that that sort
- 00:30:52of system for getting
- 00:30:54commoditized this year will
- 00:30:57be a lot more
- 00:30:57commoditization there.
- 00:30:59I think the reasoning kind
- 00:31:00of models will go through a
- 00:31:02similar trajectory where in
- 00:31:04the beginning, 1 or 2
- 00:31:05players really know how to
- 00:31:06do it, but over time
- 00:31:07–That's.
- 00:31:08and who knows right? Because
- 00:31:10OpenAI could make another
- 00:31:11advancement to focus on.
- 00:31:13But right now reasoning is
- 00:31:14their mode.
- 00:31:14By the way, if advancements
- 00:31:16keep happening again and
- 00:31:18again and again, like,
- 00:31:20I think the meaning of the
- 00:31:21word advancement also loses
- 00:31:23some of its value, right?
- 00:31:24Totally. Even now it's very
- 00:31:25difficult, right. Because
- 00:31:26there's pre-training
- 00:31:27advancements. Yeah.
- 00:31:28And then we've moved into a
- 00:31:29different phase.
- 00:31:30Yeah, so what is guaranteed
- 00:31:32to happen is whatever models
- 00:31:33exist today, that level of
- 00:31:36reasoning, that level of
- 00:31:37multimodal capability in
- 00:31:40like 5 or 10x cheaper
- 00:31:41models, open source,
- 00:31:43all that's going to happen.
- 00:31:45It's just a matter of time.
- 00:31:46What is unclear is if
- 00:31:49something like a model that
- 00:31:50reasons at test time will be
- 00:31:53extremely cheap enough that
- 00:31:55we can just run it on our
- 00:31:56phones. I think that's not
- 00:31:58clear to me yet.
- 00:31:58It feels like so much of the
- 00:31:59landscape has changed with
- 00:32:00what Deepseek was able to
- 00:32:02prove. Could you call it
- 00:32:03China's ChatGPT moment?
- 00:32:07Possible,
- 00:32:07I mean, I think it certainly
- 00:32:10probably gave them a lot of
- 00:32:11confidence that, like,
- 00:32:14you know, we're not really
- 00:32:16behind no matter what you do
- 00:32:17to restrict our compute.
- 00:32:19Like, we can always figure
- 00:32:21out some workarounds.
- 00:32:22And, yeah, I'm sure the team
- 00:32:23feels pumped about the
- 00:32:25results.
- 00:32:26How does this change,
- 00:32:27like the investment
- 00:32:28landscape, the hyperscalers
- 00:32:30that are spending tens of
- 00:32:32billions of dollars a year
- 00:32:33on CapEx have just ramped it
- 00:32:34up huge. And OpenAI and
- 00:32:36Anthropic that are raising
- 00:32:37billions of dollars for
- 00:32:38GPUs, essentially.
- 00:32:39But what Deepseek told us is
- 00:32:41you don't need, you don't
- 00:32:42necessarily need that.
- 00:32:44Yeah.
- 00:32:45I mean, look, I think it's
- 00:32:47very clear that they're
- 00:32:48going to go even harder on
- 00:32:50reasoning because they
- 00:32:53understand that, like,
- 00:32:53whatever they were building
- 00:32:54in the previous two years is
- 00:32:56getting extremely cheap,
- 00:32:57that it doesn't make sense
- 00:32:58to go justify raising that–
- 00:33:01Is the spending.
- 00:33:02proposition the same? Do
- 00:33:03they need the same amount
- 00:33:05of, you know, high end GPUs,
- 00:33:07or can you reason using the
- 00:33:08lower end ones that
- 00:33:09Deepseek–
- 00:33:10Again, it's hard to say no
- 00:33:11until proven it's not.
- 00:33:14But I guess, like in the
- 00:33:17spirit of moving fast,
- 00:33:19you would want to use the
- 00:33:20high end chips, and you
- 00:33:22would want to, like, move
- 00:33:24faster than your
- 00:33:24competitors. I think,
- 00:33:26like the best talent still
- 00:33:27wants to work in the team
- 00:33:28that made it happen first.
- 00:33:31You know, there's always
- 00:33:32some glory to like, who did
- 00:33:33this, actually? Like, who's
- 00:33:34the real pioneer? Versus
- 00:33:36who's the fast follow right?
- 00:33:38That was like kind of like
- 00:33:39Sam Altman's tweet kind of
- 00:33:41veiled response to what
- 00:33:43Deepseek has been able to,
- 00:33:44he kind of implied that they
- 00:33:45just copied, and anyone can
- 00:33:46copy.
- 00:33:47Right? Yeah, but then you
- 00:33:48can always say that, like,
- 00:33:50everybody copies everybody
- 00:33:51in this field.
- 00:33:53You can say Google did the
- 00:33:54transformer first. It's not
- 00:33:56OpenAI and OpenAI just
- 00:33:57copied it. Google built the
- 00:33:59first large language models.
- 00:34:01They didn't productise it,
- 00:34:02but OpenAI did it in a
- 00:34:04productized way. So you can
- 00:34:06say all this in many ways,
- 00:34:09it doesn't matter.
- 00:34:09I remember asking you being
- 00:34:11like, you know, why don't
- 00:34:12you want to build the model?
- 00:34:13Yeah, that's that's,
- 00:34:14you know, the glory. And a
- 00:34:16year later, just one year
- 00:34:18later, you look very,
- 00:34:19very smart. To not engage in
- 00:34:21that extremely expensive
- 00:34:23race that has become so
- 00:34:24competitive. And you kind of
- 00:34:25have this lead now in what
- 00:34:27everyone wants to see now,
- 00:34:28which is like real world
- 00:34:30applications, killer
- 00:34:31applications of generative
- 00:34:33AI. Talk a little bit about
- 00:34:35like that decision and how
- 00:34:37that's sort of guided you
- 00:34:39where you see Perplexity
- 00:34:40going from here.
- 00:34:41Look, one year ago,
- 00:34:43I don't even think we had
- 00:34:45something like,
- 00:34:47this is what, like 2024
- 00:34:51beginning, right? I feel
- 00:34:54like we didn't even have
- 00:34:54something like Sonnet 3.5,
- 00:34:56right? W e had GPT -4,
- 00:34:58I believe, and it was kind
- 00:35:00of nobody else was able to
- 00:35:01catch up to it. Yeah.
- 00:35:03B ut there was no multimodal
- 00:35:05nothing, and my sense was
- 00:35:08like, okay, if people with
- 00:35:09way more resources and way
- 00:35:10more talent cannot catch up,
- 00:35:12it's very difficult to play
- 00:35:14that game. So let's play a
- 00:35:15different game. Anyway,
- 00:35:17people want to use these
- 00:35:18models. And there's one use
- 00:35:21case of asking questions and
- 00:35:22getting accurate answers
- 00:35:23with sources, with real time
- 00:35:25information, accurate
- 00:35:27information.
- 00:35:28There's still a lot of work
- 00:35:30there to do outside the
- 00:35:31model, and making sure the
- 00:35:33product works reliably,
- 00:35:34keep scaling it up to usage.
- 00:35:36Keep building custom UIs,
- 00:35:38there's just a lot of work
- 00:35:39to do, and we would focus on
- 00:35:40that, and we would benefit
- 00:35:42from all the tailwinds of
- 00:35:43models getting better and
- 00:35:44better. That's essentially
- 00:35:46what happened, in fact, I
- 00:35:47would say, Sonnet 3.5 made
- 00:35:50our product so good,
- 00:35:51in the sense that if you use
- 00:35:54Sonnet 3.5 as the model
- 00:35:56choice within Perplexity,
- 00:35:59it's very difficult to find
- 00:36:00a hallucination. I'm not
- 00:36:01saying it's impossible,
- 00:36:04but it dramatically reduced
- 00:36:06the rate of hallucinations,
- 00:36:08which meant, the problem of
- 00:36:10question-answering,
- 00:36:11asking a question, getting
- 00:36:12an answer, doing fact
- 00:36:13checks, research, going and
- 00:36:15asking anything out there
- 00:36:16because almost all the
- 00:36:17information is on the
- 00:36:18web,was such a big unlock.
- 00:36:22And that helped us grow 10x
- 00:36:24over the course of the year
- 00:36:24in terms of usage.
- 00:36:25And you've made huge strides
- 00:36:27in terms of users,
- 00:36:28and you know, we hear on
- 00:36:29CNBC a lot, like big
- 00:36:30investors who are huge fans.
- 00:36:32Yeah. Jensen Huang himself
- 00:36:33right? He mentioned it the
- 00:36:34other, in his keynote.
- 00:36:35Yeah. The other night.
- 00:36:37He's a pretty regular user,
- 00:36:38actually, he's not just
- 00:36:39saying it. He's actually a
- 00:36:40pretty regular user.
- 00:36:42So, a year ago we weren't
- 00:36:43even talking about
- 00:36:44monetization because you
- 00:36:45guys were just so new and
- 00:36:46you wanted to, you know,
- 00:36:48get yourselves out there and
- 00:36:49build some scale, but now
- 00:36:50you are looking at things
- 00:36:51like that, increasingly an
- 00:36:53ad model, right?
- 00:36:54Yeah, we're experimenting
- 00:36:55with it.
- 00:36:56I know there's some
- 00:36:58controversy on like,
- 00:37:00why should we do ads?
- 00:37:01Whether you can have a
- 00:37:03truthful answer engine
- 00:37:04despite having ads.
- 00:37:06And in my opinion,
- 00:37:08we've been pretty
- 00:37:10proactively thoughtful about
- 00:37:11it where we said,
- 00:37:13okay, as long as the answer
- 00:37:14is always accurate,
- 00:37:15unbiased and not corrupted
- 00:37:17by someone's advertising
- 00:37:19budget, only you get to see
- 00:37:21some sponsored questions,
- 00:37:23and even the answers to
- 00:37:24those sponsored questions
- 00:37:25are not influenced by them,
- 00:37:27and questions are also not
- 00:37:30picked in a way where it's
- 00:37:31manipulative. Sure,
- 00:37:34there are some things that
- 00:37:35the advertiser also wants,
- 00:37:36which is they want you to
- 00:37:37know about their brand, and
- 00:37:38they want you to know the
- 00:37:39best parts of their brand,
- 00:37:41just like how you go,
- 00:37:42and if you're introducing
- 00:37:43yourself to someone you want
- 00:37:44to, you want them to see the
- 00:37:45best parts of you, right?
- 00:37:47So that's all there.
- 00:37:48But you still don't have to
- 00:37:50click on a sponsored
- 00:37:51question. You can ignore it.
- 00:37:53And we're only charging them
- 00:37:54CPM right now.
- 00:37:55So we're not we ourselves
- 00:37:57are not even incentivized to
- 00:37:58make you click yet.
- 00:38:00So I think considering all
- 00:38:02this, we're actually trying
- 00:38:03to get it right long term.
- 00:38:05Instead of going the Google
- 00:38:06way of forcing you to click
- 00:38:08on links. I remember when
- 00:38:08people were talking about
- 00:38:09the commoditization of
- 00:38:10models a year ago and you
- 00:38:11thought, oh, it was
- 00:38:12controversial, but now it's
- 00:38:14not controversial. It's kind
- 00:38:15of like that's happening and
- 00:38:16you're keeping your eye on
- 00:38:17that is smart.
- 00:38:19By the way, we benefit a lot
- 00:38:20from model commoditization,
- 00:38:22except we also need to
- 00:38:23figure out something to
- 00:38:24offer to the paid users,
- 00:38:26like a more sophisticated
- 00:38:27research agent that can do
- 00:38:29like multi-step reasoning,
- 00:38:30go and like do like 15
- 00:38:31minutes worth of searching
- 00:38:32and give you like an
- 00:38:34analysis, an analyst type of
- 00:38:35answer. All that's going to
- 00:38:37come, all that's going to
- 00:38:38stay in the product. Nothing
- 00:38:39changes there. But there's a
- 00:38:41ton of questions every free
- 00:38:43user asks day-to-day basis
- 00:38:45that that needs to be quick,
- 00:38:46fast answers, like it
- 00:38:48shouldn't be slow,
- 00:38:49and all that will be free,
- 00:38:51whether you like it or not,
- 00:38:52it has to be free. That's
- 00:38:53what people are used to.
- 00:38:55And that means like figuring
- 00:38:57out a way to make that free
- 00:38:58traffic also monetizable.
- 00:39:00So you're not trying to
- 00:39:01change user habits. But it's
- 00:39:02interesting because you are
- 00:39:03kind of trying to teach new
- 00:39:04habits to advertisers.
- 00:39:05They can't have everything
- 00:39:07that they have in a Google
- 00:39:08ten blue links search.
- 00:39:09What's the response been
- 00:39:10from them so far? Are they
- 00:39:11willing to accept some of
- 00:39:12the trade offs?
- 00:39:13Yeah, I mean that's why they
- 00:39:14are trying stuff like Intuit
- 00:39:17is working with us.
- 00:39:18And then there's many other
- 00:39:20brands. Dell, like all these
- 00:39:23people are working with us
- 00:39:24to test, right?
- 00:39:26They're also excited about,
- 00:39:28look, everyone knows that,
- 00:39:30like, whether you like it or
- 00:39:31not, 5 or 10 years from now,
- 00:39:33most people are going to be
- 00:39:34asking AIs most of the
- 00:39:36things, and not on the
- 00:39:37traditional search engine,
- 00:39:38everybody understands that.
- 00:39:40So everybody wants to be
- 00:39:43early adopters of the new
- 00:39:45platforms, new UX,
- 00:39:47and learn from it,
- 00:39:48and build things together.
- 00:39:49Not like they're not viewing
- 00:39:51it as like, okay, you guys
- 00:39:52go figure out everything
- 00:39:53else and then we'll come
- 00:39:54later.
- 00:39:55I'm smiling because it goes
- 00:39:56back perfectly to the point
- 00:39:57you made when you first sat
- 00:39:58down today, which is
- 00:40:00necessity is the mother of
- 00:40:01all invention,
- 00:40:03right? And that's what
- 00:40:03advertisers are essentially
- 00:40:04looking at. They're saying
- 00:40:05this field is changing.
- 00:40:06We have to learn to adapt
- 00:40:07with it. Okay,
- 00:40:09Arvind, I took up so much of
- 00:40:10your time. Thank you so much
- 00:40:11for taking the time.
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