00:00:00
look at this absolute mess of a
00:00:02
situation a bunch of money goes in on
00:00:04
the flop in a three-way three bet pot
00:00:06
then this player gets out of the way
00:00:07
when the pre flop three better or check
00:00:09
raises both opponents on the Flop scary
00:00:12
stuff and then they Jam the ace turn
00:00:14
they just have Queens what is going on
00:00:16
here do they have some semi Bluff like
00:00:18
the king jack of diamonds no they have
00:00:21
um King of Hearts King of Clubs Of
00:00:23
course why did villain do this what were
00:00:26
they thinking
00:00:27
[Music]
00:00:34
well they could have been thinking
00:00:35
anything they're just a weak poker
00:00:37
player the kind of poker player that's
00:00:38
losing most likely at 38 big blinds per
00:00:42
100 to just pick a number out of the sky
00:00:45
some bad recreational players that
00:00:47
aren't very good at playing cards they
00:00:48
lose extremely high Clips therefore
00:00:51
there is a concept called in it to win
00:00:55
it if you are in the pot with such a
00:00:57
player you get the opportunity to stack
00:01:00
them to be the beneficiary of their
00:01:05
blunders and if you don't get involved
00:01:08
early on in a hand you can't really do
00:01:10
that so if we rewind this to pre flop it
00:01:12
let me introduce the first sign that you
00:01:14
are a slave to GTO and believe me guys
00:01:16
I've been a slave to GTO I know what it
00:01:18
feels like I know how devastating it is
00:01:21
to your life to your family to your
00:01:24
friends loved ones to to everything your
00:01:27
self-image your
00:01:28
self-respect your opportunities of
00:01:32
getting married and having
00:01:33
children it's pretty bad and the first
00:01:36
sign that you are a slave to GTO is that
00:01:38
you play a three bet or fold strategy
00:01:41
you stick to it pretty religiously in
00:01:43
the hijack cut off button and small
00:01:46
blind this is really bad it's really
00:01:48
really bad and I can see why people do
00:01:50
it because solvers tell you that it's
00:01:54
the same EV to cold call as is the three
00:01:56
bit in a lot of spots right in fact in
00:01:58
the hijack the GTO wizard GTO lizard
00:02:03
yeah pretty sure it's lizard developers
00:02:05
actually skipped the hijack cold call R
00:02:08
they didn't even include the node in
00:02:09
their in their pre-flop Sim they started
00:02:11
the cold call at cut off yes you're
00:02:20
shouldn't but if we go to the cut off
00:02:23
Sim we can see that suddenly cold
00:02:25
calling is just totally fine with loads
00:02:27
of Combos and it's fine in the hijack as
00:02:29
well if you include the node it's not
00:02:31
terrible it doesn't happen very often
00:02:33
that doesn't make it bad you don't want
00:02:35
to assume that because things don't
00:02:37
happen much that they are bad and you
00:02:39
don't want to think that solvers do
00:02:42
things that are bad at low frequencies
00:02:43
right do you do things that are terrible
00:02:45
at low frequencies you go to eat your
00:02:47
dinner and you pick up the fork and you
00:02:48
stab yourself in the ear you're like
00:02:51
it's okay sweetie don't worry I just
00:02:52
rolled a 98 I was only doing that 3% of
00:02:54
the time and you know not doing it much
00:02:57
balance me eating dinner right range you
00:03:00
don't do that and solvers don't either
00:03:02
so when you see 4% call happening
00:03:04
overall here that's because call is not
00:03:08
a terrible thing to do at all in fact in
00:03:10
G2 it's fine which means that it's
00:03:12
actually the best play in reality in a
00:03:14
lot of cases ace4 suited here by the way
00:03:16
cut off against under the gun I know
00:03:18
this is hijack but it's not going to be
00:03:19
a huge difference is indifferent between
00:03:21
all three of the options although it's
00:03:24
not folding fold is basically the same
00:03:27
as call and Rays because col and rays
00:03:28
are both very very close to zero so what
00:03:32
that means is that when you're in a spot
00:03:34
like this it's your duty to try to
00:03:37
figure out what's actually best in the
00:03:39
real world because equilibrium solver
00:03:42
the GTO lizard it's all rigged it's all
00:03:44
set up so that people are in different
00:03:46
as in in as many places as they can be
00:03:48
that's how equilibrium works right
00:03:50
that's what the algorithm does it tries
00:03:52
to equalize the strategies against each
00:03:54
other to the point where neither one can
00:03:55
improve by making any changes and in the
00:03:58
real world wouldn't just be absurdly
00:04:01
strange if you were
00:04:03
indifferent you're not indifferent so
00:04:05
when we C call here we're aware that
00:04:07
there's a recreational player in the
00:04:08
small blind and the big blind here we're
00:04:11
aware that folding is therefore not the
00:04:13
best play right the table is just softer
00:04:15
we have a skill Edge Etc we're going to
00:04:16
rule out folding it's okay in
00:04:17
equilibrium it's fine if you want to
00:04:19
skip the spot in theory it's a zero e
00:04:21
spot but in practice we're going to take
00:04:23
it and we're going to rule out three
00:04:26
betting because three betting more often
00:04:28
makes these two players into blind s
00:04:29
really bad who might be losing at 38 BB
00:04:32
per 100 where do you think that money
00:04:34
goes it's zero sum it goes to the other
00:04:36
players on the table that's you guys
00:04:38
that's
00:04:39
you so calling is the best play three
00:04:41
betting is is all right but it's not
00:04:42
going to yield that much of an edge one
00:04:44
you're going to get cold called more
00:04:45
often if you three bet here that's bad
00:04:47
for your hand and secondly people don't
00:04:50
really overfall that much from under the
00:04:51
gun they don't under forbit that much
00:04:53
from under the gun either because it's
00:04:54
just easier to forbet at the right clip
00:04:56
so there's lots of reasons to think that
00:04:57
call is clearly the best play here pre
00:05:00
flop yet people don't make it in fact I
00:05:02
wouldn't have made this call a few years
00:05:04
ago because I would have as a GTO slave
00:05:06
I would have reasoned as fathers uh yes
00:05:09
you've you've got to simplify your pre
00:05:12
flop strategy and I'm going to play
00:05:15
three better fold
00:05:18
simplification if that sounds like you
00:05:21
you've got to work on yourself don't be
00:05:23
offended by the impression it might help
00:05:26
you that's how we got into this spot in
00:05:28
it to win it is my phrase of the year so
00:05:30
far I think it's so important it's
00:05:32
important for Live players it's
00:05:34
important for online players in soft
00:05:35
games it's important that you scan the
00:05:37
table and make sure that you are in it
00:05:39
to win it this this PST up action I mean
00:05:41
our hand plays itself there's not a lot
00:05:43
we can really do differently at any
00:05:45
point here I don't think the point is
00:05:47
not about what we do we're just there
00:05:49
we're just in the hand to win the hand
00:05:52
the point is that the guy that's losing
00:05:53
a ton who should probably be check
00:05:56
folding that turn or at least checking
00:05:57
that turn or maybe blocking a tiny at a
00:06:00
stretch shouldn't be just shoving Kings
00:06:02
I don't think right but they are and
00:06:05
that sort of mistake them getting their
00:06:07
money and just totally dead here against
00:06:09
our range is Testament to why we want to
00:06:11
be in the pot in the first place so yeah
00:06:13
the first sign that you're slave to GTO
00:06:15
and that's a bad thing by the way I know
00:06:17
some of you like to try and become a
00:06:19
slave to GTO it's a bad thing is that
00:06:21
you don't ever cold call hijack cut off
00:06:24
button like if you don't code call the
00:06:26
button oh my God I don't even know what
00:06:27
to say to you you're missing out big
00:06:29
that's like saying you've never had ice
00:06:30
cream that's really sad and small blind
00:06:34
anyway let's move on to the second sign
00:06:36
that you're a slave to GTO right guys
00:06:38
Second Hand of the day so this sucks
00:06:40
right facing an Allin on the River from
00:06:43
a rig tightish looking
00:06:45
rig um we got here by opening our hand
00:06:48
getting three bet calling the three bet
00:06:50
and then calling a couple of
00:06:51
times I'm just going to introduce the
00:06:54
second sign that you're slave to GTO and
00:06:56
it
00:06:57
is that you're always worried
00:07:00
about your own range that's right your
00:07:04
range is not really a thing causally
00:07:08
speaking eeve wise and that might sound
00:07:10
like a very bold claim and you might
00:07:12
think I'm mad but please bear with
00:07:14
me the Eevee of your play with your hand
00:07:17
in any given situation is determined by
00:07:19
the opponent's range and strategy the
00:07:21
board and all the other stuff like the
00:07:22
poth ODS and what you're doing and what
00:07:24
your options
00:07:25
are when an opponent takes an action
00:07:29
they don't take that action based on
00:07:31
what your range is sound crazy bear with
00:07:35
me they take that action based on what
00:07:38
they think your range is maybe if
00:07:40
they're thinking about ranges but often
00:07:42
just based on their hand what they think
00:07:44
of the population maybe if they're a
00:07:46
better player if they're a weaker player
00:07:47
they're just looking at their own
00:07:48
absolute hand strength could be lots of
00:07:50
different things but they do not know
00:07:52
what your true range is and whatever it
00:07:54
may be it is a fluid thing that changes
00:07:57
every time your brain changes every time
00:07:59
you're in different mood every time you
00:08:01
know you just have a different thought
00:08:03
your range is not a static concrete
00:08:05
thing that has any actual existence and
00:08:09
therefore it cannot have any causal
00:08:10
clout it does
00:08:13
not so what determines your Eevee is
00:08:16
your hand against your opponent's range
00:08:17
and strategy said this in previous
00:08:20
videos your hand their range and
00:08:21
strategy so when you get to this River
00:08:24
in equilibrium you're actually
00:08:26
indifferent with king queen you have a
00:08:28
kind of reasonable Bluff catcher you can
00:08:30
make some claims about they don't Bluff
00:08:31
with the Queen of Spades and the
00:08:33
blockers and you can split hairs here
00:08:34
and fight over scraps of EV you can just
00:08:37
shrug and say I'm I'm indifferent I'm
00:08:39
going to roll some dice and see if I
00:08:40
call or not but these aren't the right
00:08:43
way to go if you do that you're a slave
00:08:45
to GT the right thing to do is try and
00:08:46
work out whether these spots are over
00:08:49
bluffed or under bluffed and and go from
00:08:50
there firstly what does GTO lizard think
00:08:54
you should mix cor at
00:08:57
98% frequency
00:09:00
call 98% of the time that's basically
00:09:03
what it's saying with king queen suited
00:09:05
here it's saying that our hand is zero e
00:09:08
you look closely there you can see the
00:09:09
Eevee reads zero in the bottom right
00:09:11
with King Queen of Spades so why is it
00:09:14
calling it's calling because in
00:09:16
equilibrium if you fold these king queen
00:09:20
king Jack type hands at any real
00:09:23
frequency you are overfolded
00:09:26
and
00:09:28
overfolded desirable in equilibrium
00:09:30
because the goal in theory is to have an
00:09:33
unexploitable strategy
00:09:35
right in practice the goal is to do the
00:09:38
thing that Nets the most money and the
00:09:40
options are very very rarely going to be
00:09:42
the same what kind of bizarre freak
00:09:44
world would you live in if calling here
00:09:47
was exactly zero Eevee that's extremely
00:09:49
unlikely right probably it's
00:09:52
significantly winning or it's
00:09:53
significantly losing against a human and
00:09:55
against pool as well and I don't want
00:09:58
give too many of the grade e car poker
00:09:59
School Secrets away guys but a spot like
00:10:02
this you know where it's early position
00:10:06
three bet pop where the aggression is
00:10:09
what we describe as continuous it's a
00:10:10
triple barrel these spots are under
00:10:13
bluffed usually by most opponents and so
00:10:16
you should fold the spot and any
00:10:20
reflection you do here about your own
00:10:21
range about hitting a certain defense
00:10:23
frequency it doesn't mean anything even
00:10:26
if you do hit the right defense
00:10:28
frequency like like what do you think
00:10:29
happens like bags of money magically
00:10:32
fall from the sky they land in your lap
00:10:34
the gods reward you for adhering to the
00:10:37
code of GTO no nothing good happens in
00:10:41
fact if you roll call 98% of the time
00:10:44
here you do worse than if you just fold
00:10:46
100% of the time at 25 and L or 10 NL or
00:10:49
50 N L or 100 n l it doesn't really
00:10:51
matter all of these games is going to be
00:10:53
very few people over bluffing this
00:10:55
specific situation and quite a lot of
00:10:56
people under bluffing it while it looks
00:10:59
and it's a departure from the Sim to
00:11:02
fold here you should fold here and if
00:11:04
you spend all of your time think about
00:11:06
your own range you will never see the
00:11:07
forest for the trees you will develop
00:11:10
what I call main character syndrome
00:11:12
where you're just completely centered on
00:11:13
your own range and strategy all the
00:11:15
while ignoring the thing that actually
00:11:17
determines the EV of your play which is
00:11:20
your opponent's range and strategy and
00:11:21
your hand and their range is too strong
00:11:24
for doing this in the river in most
00:11:26
games until you get up to higher Stakes
00:11:28
mid Stakes high stakes
00:11:30
just want to fold the spot I know it's
00:11:31
not sexy it's not
00:11:33
glamorous but this is how you maximize
00:11:36
EV and by maximizing EV you move up in
00:11:38
Stakes don't be a slave to the silver
00:11:40
stop think about your own damn range so
00:11:41
much it's just not a thing it's not
00:11:43
relevant it's not it's not what you
00:11:44
think it is it's not what they LED you
00:11:46
to believe they lied to you they lie to
00:11:49
you okay and finally the third sign that
00:11:52
you might be a slave to GTO is that
00:11:54
you're always thinking about what you're
00:11:57
supposed to do you hear this a lot man I
00:12:00
hear a lot of people that make poker
00:12:02
content some of them make good poker
00:12:04
content but they kind of spoil it
00:12:06
because they talk in this depressing
00:12:08
like following a a theory God kind of
00:12:11
language they they say things like I'm
00:12:14
not allowed to bet small here they say
00:12:17
things like we are supposed to have a
00:12:20
raising range here so we must use this
00:12:22
combo and they're trying to you know
00:12:24
replicate what they see in a solver
00:12:26
which is a natural way to learn but it's
00:12:27
not a good way to play
00:12:30
and while I've built a course that's all
00:12:31
about understand understanding how
00:12:33
Theory Works copying it is really bad so
00:12:36
in this spot I'm going to guess that the
00:12:39
GTO of this situation haven't looked
00:12:41
this one up in the lizard but the GTO is
00:12:44
that we can three bet this hand if we
00:12:46
really want I'm going to guess that you
00:12:48
can do lots of betting on this flop and
00:12:50
you can bet small I'm going to guess
00:12:52
that on the turn you probably just
00:12:55
reopen Bigg or check and you probably
00:12:57
don't reopen Jack Duce of fites this is
00:13:00
my guess silver is going to be a bit
00:13:02
fussier and it's probably only worth
00:13:05
betting for thick value here when you're
00:13:08
reopening for value and I agree I'm not
00:13:10
going to reopen this hand for thin value
00:13:14
with any of my value hands therefore
00:13:16
when I make this bet I am 100% full of
00:13:20
[ __ ] I am bluffing if you see me do this
00:13:23
I'm bluffing you if you see me make this
00:13:25
bit unless you're like a good player and
00:13:28
I might try and play something closer to
00:13:30
Theory but you guys should not be doing
00:13:31
that there aren't enough really good
00:13:33
players at low mid Stakes mid Stakes of
00:13:35
some but you know as you move up in
00:13:36
Stakes you see people who are more and
00:13:38
more balanced and it becomes more common
00:13:41
that you'll Retreat into some GTO
00:13:42
Fortress type thing maybe is but you
00:13:45
should still be thinking about TR EV you
00:13:46
should still be thinking about what's
00:13:47
best here and if you look at the
00:13:49
opponent's range for reaching the spot
00:13:51
they're going to have a queen
00:13:52
occasionally when they've not raised the
00:13:53
Flop they can of in Ace sometimes like
00:13:56
acex of hearts or just like Ace Jack
00:13:57
with I don't know that got a bit sticky
00:14:00
on the Flop or something A5 they're
00:14:03
going to have a pocket pair with or
00:14:05
without a club and that's going to be a
00:14:07
lot of their range they have like five4
00:14:09
suited which is never going to have a
00:14:11
club so they have a lot of automatic
00:14:13
folds right H we would call Auto folds
00:14:15
even to a small betat they have sixes
00:14:17
sevens eights nines 10 no Club these
00:14:20
hands are probably just going to go in
00:14:21
the muck all the time on the Turner the
00:14:24
vast majority of the time I don't want
00:14:25
to say always right so giving yourself a
00:14:29
phenomenal price here on a bluff with a
00:14:31
bad bad hand that's dead looks to me
00:14:34
like a very good way to play because
00:14:36
regardless of what the solver ends up
00:14:38
doing at
00:14:39
equilibrium and the logic behind that
00:14:42
that's not EV centered but how often
00:14:45
they're folding to various sizes here is
00:14:48
and if you go half pot for example I
00:14:51
think you get quite similar fold equity
00:14:52
in the spot I don't think you make an
00:14:54
ace fold or a queen or a flush or decent
00:14:57
pocket pair with a club but I think you
00:14:58
make like six of diamond six of Hearts
00:15:00
fold and four five of Spades fold and
00:15:02
King jack of diamonds fold you just pay
00:15:05
more than if you go one3 so in these
00:15:07
spots what you should do to maximize EV
00:15:09
is go bigger with value and smaller with
00:15:11
a bluff and I know that many of you
00:15:12
don't like it and you want to feel like
00:15:14
you're this impenetrable like solid
00:15:18
Fortress of a player that's totally
00:15:19
unbalanced and they can't exploit you
00:15:21
but we said last time exploitable equals
00:15:24
exploitative to beat the modern
00:15:26
game doesn't cut it to try and mimic a
00:15:29
solver what you have to do is have a big
00:15:31
win rate and beat the rake and all of
00:15:32
that and to do that you have to exploit
00:15:35
the pool and to do that you have to
00:15:36
think about how they play and again use
00:15:39
your hand their range and strategy we go
00:15:41
for this it doesn't work billan probably
00:15:44
has a queen an ace a pocket pair with a
00:15:47
club or potentially some slow play like
00:15:51
a full house or something as well could
00:15:53
be whever comes a club now when we Jam
00:15:57
or not Jam but bet big I think we can
00:16:00
fold out bad clubs here I think people
00:16:01
will just level themselves into not
00:16:03
calling with like the seven of clubs
00:16:04
here sometimes even though they call the
00:16:06
turn for that
00:16:08
purpose that will fold sometimes not
00:16:10
always by any means it will sometimes
00:16:12
call us a queen I think will usually
00:16:14
fold an ace I think will usually fold
00:16:16
although there's not that many of them
00:16:17
this a case 10 of Hearts maybe some
00:16:19
sticky Ace Jack as I said and if F never
00:16:22
did get here with 10 Snow Club I think
00:16:23
they're folding so I just think there's
00:16:24
like enough fold equity on this River
00:16:26
this does get through this time is this
00:16:28
hand GTO by the book like probably not
00:16:30
do I care do I feel like I'm supposed to
00:16:33
bet big on the turn well yeah it's bit
00:16:36
like if you're raised religious and then
00:16:37
you become an atheist one day this isn't
00:16:39
me by the way but I hear people talk
00:16:41
about this then they still feel like I
00:16:43
don't know the guilt of this the threats
00:16:46
of Hell or whatever were you know cast
00:16:49
upon them when they were a kid someone
00:16:50
told them youo burn in hell if you you
00:16:52
do this and even though they don't
00:16:55
believe in it
00:16:56
anymore still there somehow right and
00:16:58
it's still motivates them there's still
00:17:00
some fear of of that stuff so even
00:17:02
though I'm free from GTO slavery these
00:17:06
days and I'm no longer Shackled to the
00:17:07
solver don't try and mimic it anymore I
00:17:09
can look at it appreciate it but never
00:17:11
try and copy
00:17:12
it you know I still feel a weird tinge
00:17:16
of guilt on the turn when I do this and
00:17:18
I really think this is a great play I
00:17:20
really think it's the best way to Bluff
00:17:22
here with this specific hand in the spot
00:17:25
but there's still something that tries
00:17:26
to make me feel bad about and I keep
00:17:27
having to free myself from it all the
00:17:29
time so GT slavery it's it's a tough
00:17:32
life it's a tough Affliction it doesn't
00:17:33
fully ever really totally go away but
00:17:37
you can at least Free Yourself In Action
00:17:39
and maybe there'll be a weird feeling
00:17:40
that you're doing something anti-
00:17:42
theoretical when you do stuff like this
00:17:44
but you can remind yourself that the
00:17:45
Eevee is just likely to be good it just
00:17:47
makes sense right and then you can
00:17:49
escape this horrendous Affliction truly
00:17:54
it's like the Bubonic plague of Poker in
00:17:57
our time and I believe you you with that
00:17:59
harrowing thought check out carrot
00:18:01
corner for more of our content good luck
00:18:04
at the
00:18:05
tables let's get rid of the shackles
00:18:08
let's stop being slaves to GTR see you
00:18:11
next time
