00:00:00
it's been 5 years since the United
00:00:02
Kingdom left the European Union a moment
00:00:04
marked by celebrations and cheers from
00:00:06
some and commiserations and tears from
00:00:08
others a lot has happened since then a
00:00:11
pandemic and a war in Europe to name a
00:00:13
few but through all this the British
00:00:16
people have continued to consider the
00:00:17
Eternal question was it the right
00:00:19
decision new polling released to Mark
00:00:22
the 5-year anniversary suggests that
00:00:24
fewer people than ever think that the UK
00:00:26
was right to vote to leave so in this
00:00:28
video we're going to dive into the newly
00:00:30
released data explain why brexit regret
00:00:32
is increasingly common look at what was
00:00:35
promised versus what was delivered and
00:00:37
try and work out if anything will
00:00:38
actually change as a
00:00:41
[Music]
00:00:54
result if you want more UK political
00:00:57
drama from us check out our podcast
00:00:59
starmageddon
00:01:00
where we track the successes and
00:01:01
failures of this new labor government
00:01:03
find it over on the tldr podcast's
00:01:05
YouTube channel or in your favorite
00:01:06
podcast app according to ugo's January
00:01:09
2025 data just 30% of Britains right now
00:01:12
say that the UK was right to vote to
00:01:14
leave the EU compared to 55% who say it
00:01:17
was wrong that's the lowest proportion
00:01:19
ever in ugo's polling saying that the UK
00:01:21
was right to vote for brexit if you
00:01:24
break that data down by referendum voter
00:01:26
type unsurprisingly 88% of 2016 remain
00:01:29
voter voters view the country's vote for
00:01:31
brexit as wrong whereas a smaller number
00:01:33
of leave voters 66% view it as the right
00:01:37
decision meaning a sizable one in six
00:01:39
leave voters think that it was wrong
00:01:42
against this backdrop of dissatisfaction
00:01:43
in hindsight with the brexit vote
00:01:45
polling by Redfield and Wilton last
00:01:47
month found that excluding don't knows
00:01:50
57% would vote to rejoin the EU while
00:01:52
43% would vote to stay out according to
00:01:56
professor John Curtis that is a very
00:01:58
similar result to both the average in
00:02:00
other recent polls and with the picture
00:02:02
for over 2 years so what is behind all
00:02:05
this well at least part of it can be
00:02:07
attributed to the slightly morbid
00:02:09
reality of demographic churn older
00:02:11
people were more likely to back brexit
00:02:13
than younger people in 2016 some of
00:02:15
those leave voters will have died in the
00:02:17
nine years since while those who were
00:02:19
too young to vote have now joined the
00:02:21
electorate according to Redfield and
00:02:23
Wilton today 60% of 18 to 24 year olds
00:02:26
none of whom were old enough to vote in
00:02:28
2016 would vote to rejoin but putting
00:02:31
age aside the simple fact is that people
00:02:33
including leave voters think brexit has
00:02:36
gone badly Yugo found that only 11% of
00:02:38
Britains think brexit has been more of a
00:02:41
success while 62% think it has been more
00:02:43
of a failure most notable is that only
00:02:46
22% of Lee voters think that brexit has
00:02:49
been more of a success compared to 32%
00:02:51
viewing it as more of a failure The
00:02:53
public's view of brexit as a failure is
00:02:55
even more Stark when you break it down
00:02:57
by topic another yugov survey from from
00:03:00
last month showed that few Britains
00:03:02
think brexit has been good for anything
00:03:04
the famous takeback control message
00:03:06
seems to be the only area that Britain's
00:03:08
assess brexit as being more positive
00:03:10
with 31% of the public believing that
00:03:12
brexit has had a positive impact for the
00:03:14
control that the UK has over its own
00:03:16
laws although that's still smaller than
00:03:18
the 35% who say there's been no impact
00:03:21
the only other mildly well assessed area
00:03:24
with 23% saying there was a positive
00:03:26
impact is the UK's ability to respond to
00:03:29
the covid-19 pandemic and even then
00:03:31
that's still a smaller share than the
00:03:33
30% who think it was negatively impacted
00:03:35
by brexit or the 32% who saw no impact
00:03:39
what's most damning is that no more than
00:03:41
11% of Britains believe brexit has been
00:03:43
beneficial to the 16 other issues
00:03:45
surveyed let's look at some of these
00:03:47
more closely if we look at broadly
00:03:49
economic issues specifically brexit's
00:03:52
impact on International Trade British
00:03:54
businesses the UK economy and public
00:03:56
finances The public's verdict is
00:03:58
overwhelmingly negative 57% 64% 65% and
00:04:03
58% respectively to be blunt these
00:04:06
numbers shouldn't really be surprising
00:04:08
when you consider that during the
00:04:09
referendum campaign brexit was build as
00:04:11
an opportunity to transform the UK's
00:04:13
prospects free up money to spend on
00:04:16
public services and sign our own trade
00:04:18
deals around the world that would boost
00:04:19
British businesses however the office
00:04:22
for Budget responsibility or OB
00:04:24
forecasts that relative to remaining in
00:04:26
the EU the UK's Post brexit Trading
00:04:28
relationship with the EU will in the
00:04:30
long run reduce the UK economy's
00:04:32
potential productivity by 4% and the
00:04:35
volume of UK import and exports by 15%
00:04:38
the obr also says that new trade deals
00:04:41
with non-eu countries will not have a
00:04:43
material impact because the deals
00:04:45
concluded so far either replicate deals
00:04:47
that the UK already benefited from as an
00:04:49
EU member state or do not have a
00:04:51
material impact on its forecast while
00:04:54
service exports have done unexpectedly
00:04:56
well since leaving brexit has hurt the
00:04:58
UK's trade in Goods with smaller
00:05:00
businesses in particular struggling with
00:05:02
so-called non-tariff barriers such as
00:05:04
Customs checks and paperwork similarly
00:05:07
on immigration another key issue during
00:05:09
the referendum brexit has not delivered
00:05:11
what many who voted for it may have been
00:05:13
expecting and 52% think brexit had a
00:05:16
negative impact on immigration levels
00:05:18
while just 6% think it's had a positive
00:05:20
impact brexit was sold as a way for the
00:05:23
UK to take control of its borders and
00:05:25
control immigration to bring net
00:05:27
migration down below 100,000 as per the
00:05:30
Tory government's Target at the time of
00:05:32
the referendum net migration was around
00:05:34
300,000 people per year and while
00:05:36
leaving the EU did precede a big drop in
00:05:39
EU migration soaring non-eu immigration
00:05:42
has sent net migration to a record
00:05:44
96,000 in the year to June 2023 and then
00:05:48
728 th000 in the year to June
00:05:51
2024 now we've obviously only mentioned
00:05:53
a few areas there but the headline is
00:05:55
that by a considerable margin the UK
00:05:58
public thinks brexit has not being a
00:06:00
success and polling suggests that a
00:06:02
majority would vote to rejoin as well as
00:06:04
showing support for other closer
00:06:05
Arrangements like rejoining the single
00:06:07
Market or the Customs Union however it
00:06:10
does at times feel like the Westminster
00:06:12
consensus that brexit is Untouchable has
00:06:15
hardly changed despite the Public's
00:06:17
evolving view so will there be a
00:06:19
political shift anytime soon well the
00:06:22
labor government has promised a reset in
00:06:24
UK EU relations aiming for deeper ties
00:06:27
however they have consistently ruled out
00:06:29
rejoining the EU single Market or
00:06:31
Customs Union or returning to free
00:06:33
movement given these repeated statements
00:06:36
and the fact that this was all set out
00:06:37
in their Manifesto It's hard to imagine
00:06:40
labor budging on this issue at least in
00:06:42
their current term things like striking
00:06:44
a youth Mobility deal the security pact
00:06:47
and joining the pan Euro Mediterranean
00:06:48
convention could however all form part
00:06:51
of Labour's EU reset for now it's the
00:06:54
liberal Democrats who are trying to push
00:06:55
the political needle on brexit with
00:06:58
their leader Ed Davy calling on Kama to
00:07:00
negotiate a new Customs Union deal with
00:07:02
the EU the question is if brexit
00:07:04
continues to poll as poorly as it
00:07:06
currently does it may only be a matter
00:07:08
of time before other parties are forced
00:07:10
to consider their own positions that's
00:07:13
not the end of this story though with
00:07:15
2025 already shaping up to be a rather
00:07:17
busy year for news in fact there's so
00:07:20
much going on that we don't have time to
00:07:21
cover it all just in America there's
00:07:24
everything from the question of whether
00:07:26
Trump's becoming an imperial president
00:07:28
to America's wild history of of
00:07:29
territorial expansion to questioning if
00:07:31
the US is actually an oligarchy all of
00:07:34
these things could lead you to say WTF
00:07:37
USA which is appropriately also the name
00:07:40
of the series I'm literally telling you
00:07:41
about right now WTF USA takes a
00:07:45
tongue-in cheek look at the weirder side
00:07:46
of us politics unpacking what Trump's
00:07:49
really up to and why Trump's kind of
00:07:51
weird decisions could end up being
00:07:53
incredibly impactful WTF USA is released
00:07:56
every other Friday only on nebula the
00:07:58
streaming we co-own with a bunch of your
00:08:01
favorite creators and those creators
00:08:03
also make a ton of other exclusive
00:08:05
nebula content including real life law
00:08:08
series war room that's the show where
00:08:10
every month the real life law team
00:08:12
breaks down all of the ongoing Wars and
00:08:14
conflicts around the world to keep you
00:08:15
up to dat and informed on what's
00:08:17
Happening and why which in an
00:08:19
increasingly complex world could prove
00:08:21
to be a very helpful summary it's not
00:08:24
just original content either you can
00:08:26
also watch every normal tldr video on
00:08:28
nebula ad free
00:08:29
and in some instances before they land
00:08:31
on YouTube if you're not a member
00:08:33
already click on the link in the
00:08:35
description to get 40% off which brings
00:08:37
the price down to just $36 a year or $3
00:08:40
a month that's a real steal considering
00:08:43
all of the original content on the
00:08:44
platform and the fact that signing up
00:08:46
using our link directly funds the
00:08:48
channel and allows us to make more
00:08:50
content going forward so thanks for your
00:08:52
support and please do join us over on
00:08:54
nebula