Why Bitcoin Is Crashing | WAYT?

00:53:25
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GzkJZ9LV_dw

Resumo

TLDR在这段视频中，Josh和Michael讨论了目前股市的表现，尤其是美国与国际市场的比较。他们提到美国小型和中型股可能的投资机会，并分析了Warren Buffett最新的股东信，讨论了他对市场状况的看法。此外，他们探讨了比特币和相关加密货币ETF的近期走势，并提到了一些行业动态，比如特斯拉的及其销售数据变化。视频中还详细说明了一些股票的表现，特别是那些表现强劲的防御性股票，如麦当劳。

Conclusões

  • 🎉 Josh 今天 48 岁！
  • 📈 美国股市在全球市场中表现突出。
  • 💡 小型和中型股可能存在投资机会。
  • 📰 Warren Buffett的股东信引发了关于现金储备的讨论。
  • ⚠️ 比特币市场近期面临压力，但投资者仍在寻找机会。
  • 🥴 特斯拉销售数据显著下降。
  • 🏦 Betterment是本期节目的赞助商。
  • 📊 消费品行业表现强劲，防御性股票如麦当劳备受关注。

Linha do tempo

  • 00:00:00 - 00:05:00

    بۇ سەيشەنبە كۈنىئالام - 5:00 PM - شەرقىي چاغدا جىددىي بويىچە شوشۇش قىلىشقا باشلاپ ، سۆزلەردە 48 ياشقا كىرىشىڭىز توغرىسىدا توغرا ئۇچۇر بېرىلدى.

  • 00:05:00 - 00:10:00

    بۇ ئېتىراقچىلىققى جايلاشقان مۇشۇنداق قوللۇشىلارغا ئىشەنچ بەرگەن دۈشمەن ئاڭدۇرىشتا ، ئۈستىدىكى يولنى سەنئەتىلە ياكى دۇنيادىكى تۇرۇم ۋە پائالىيەتنى ئاڭلاپ كۆرەلەيسىز.

  • 00:10:00 - 00:15:00

    بۇ تېر چېگرا بويىچە بىز سېتىشقا تاقاشماقچى بولدۇق ، شۇڭا بۇنداق كارتا بىلەن نۇرغۇنلاپ ئىنتايىن قايغۇرۇشتا جايلاشماقچى بولدۇق.

  • 00:15:00 - 00:20:00

    سەھىيە ياردەم بېرگۈچى قۇرۇلۇشلارغا بىسىم قىلىش ، كېيىنكى قەدەم بولۇپ ، بارلىق قىلىشقا قايتماقچى بولۇپ البڃوتدۇق.

  • 00:20:00 - 00:25:00

    بۇ جەدۋەللەر ئارقىلىق سىز ئۈچۈن ياردەم بېرگۈچى بىزغۇرقماقچى بولدۇق ، شۇنداق بولسا تۈزىتىشتىكى بىزنى قوش ساپلاشقا سىنىپ كۆرەلەيسىز.

  • 00:25:00 - 00:30:00

    بۇ سۆزىمىز سىزنىڭ ۋە قازانغا ئىشەنچ بەرگۈچى مۆلچەرلەردە توقۇش قىلىشقا قوشماسلىقىدىن ئىبارەت.

  • 00:30:00 - 00:35:00

    ئالامىغا ئىتبار بۇلىدۇ ، لېكىن بۈگۈن تۇرۇش خوجى ئومومى بىلەن چىگرا تورىدىن سىرتدا بومباشلاشقا بىكار قىلغۇدەك بىلدۇرلغان چوڭقۇر مەيلى.

  • 00:35:00 - 00:40:00

    بۇ خوجا قەھرىماننىڭ سۈرۈشتە قاردىن قارارلىق قېتىش گۇرۇپپىسىغا مۇناسىۋەتلىك بولغاچقا تۆۋەن رىقابەتلەرگە چاقىرىشتا

  • 00:40:00 - 00:53:25

    ئوبدانساللىق ئۈچۈن ئەمەل بېرگۈچى توردا شيءلىقتا بىزگە ئېتىراكچىلىق قەدەم بوىچە ياردەم بېرگۈچى تۇپراقلار سىردىكى بىلىنەيديوس.

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Mapa mental

Vídeo de perguntas e respostas

  • Josh的生日是什么时候？

    Josh的生日是1977年2月25日，今天他48岁。

  • Warren Buffett认为当前股票市场如何？

    Warren Buffett认为现在的股票价格较高，尤其是大型股，因此他正在积累现金。

  • Michael Saylor提出了什么关于比特币的建议？

    Michael Saylor建议美国应该储备20%的比特币供应，以增强美元和偿还国家债务。

  • 视频中提到的主要赞助商是什么？

    视频的主要赞助商是Betterment，提供投资顾问服务。

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  • 00:00:05
    [Music]
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    all right hey we're live tonight it's
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    Tuesday it's 5:00 pm East Coast time the
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    chat is rolling I see uh Michael I can't
  • 00:00:27
    even tell you how many people I see here
  • 00:00:29
    I do want to clear the air about
  • 00:00:30
    something though okay um Scott a asked
  • 00:00:33
    if I'm turning 50 today no it turns out
  • 00:00:37
    if Josh was turning 50 everyone would
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    know or when Josh turns 50 you'll know
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    uh 48 born uh February 25th
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    1977 uh so not not quite there yet can I
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    say something about your birthday so
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    I've been working with you since you
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    were 35 or 36 is that true and every
  • 00:01:00
    every single year I've heard I'm this
  • 00:01:04
    years old dude I don't do that
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    anymore I'm 37 years old I'm 42 I'm 45
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    every year since I've known you and now
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    you could say I don't do that I'm
  • 00:01:13
    47 wait are you 48 actually you throw at
  • 00:01:16
    like Danny Glover like I'm getting too
  • 00:01:17
    old for this every year since I've
  • 00:01:19
    known you I don't say it anymore since
  • 00:01:21
    since you're 36 I don't say it anymore
  • 00:01:23
    oh I'll tell you the next time
  • 00:01:24
    you say it but it's been a minute right
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    it has I don't pull that any it has
  • 00:01:28
    it has you know why cuz you're getting
  • 00:01:29
    wise you're getting wise no I'm saving
  • 00:01:31
    it wait till I turn 50 I'm not doing
  • 00:01:33
    anything um you Michael said one of the
  • 00:01:36
    funniest things I've ever heard today
  • 00:01:37
    one of our co-workers fainted on an
  • 00:01:39
    airplane over the weekend and uh yeah
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    that was F and yeah it was hilarious and
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    Mike Mike was on the plane and he said
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    the second thought that crossed his mind
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    that was between us the second thought
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    that crossed his mind all right we'll
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    leave it alone but I was laughing I was
  • 00:01:56
    laughing about it in the car um all
  • 00:01:58
    right so let me say hello to a few folks
  • 00:02:00
    and then we'll we'll shout out the
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    sponsor uh Magnus ofstead is going off
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    in the chat tonight we love to see it
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    bringing a lot of energy uh into the
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    chat thank you John Carlos here James
  • 00:02:10
    Dell um who else Roger is around Matthew
  • 00:02:13
    Steig I see you what's up man uh Georgie
  • 00:02:16
    d a it's not the same without you
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    Georgie you know this uh Benjamin's here
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    David Carr is here we just got uh Bob
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    rice Michael skyrose everyone's here
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    Cliff so uh we have a new sponsor
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    tonight and we're gonna we're going to
  • 00:02:33
    uh do this one Justice Michael why you
  • 00:02:36
    start us off a word from our sponsor
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    betterment uh imagining a better future
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    Josh that's the first step I try to
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    investing in that future with betterman
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    advisor Solutions is the next step okay
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    whether you're launching your own I
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    performance not guaranteed let's get to
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    the show all right thanks bman all right
  • 00:03:33
    um I want to talk about Tony Pascal's
  • 00:03:36
    note from over the weekend for those who
  • 00:03:39
    don't know Tony he is the G uh Goldman
  • 00:03:41
    Sachs Global head of hedge fund coverage
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    so he's he does these incredible uh
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    Market notes and this is what he was
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    talking about over the weekend which I
  • 00:03:52
    thought was interesting so we have uh
  • 00:03:54
    put up the first chart and I'll I'll
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    narrate this this is this is Tony a big
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    picture chart this plots trailing
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    earnings growth of the United States
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    versus various cuts of rest of world in
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    local currency I think this clearly
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    demonstrates Why Us equities have
  • 00:04:10
    outperformed so much in the co era now
  • 00:04:13
    the debate turns on whether that immense
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    Gap is set to converge or not that's the
  • 00:04:18
    nature of the bet for folks who have
  • 00:04:19
    been sliding their Capital away from the
  • 00:04:22
    US of late which is a real phenomenon
  • 00:04:25
    that we are seeing and we've been
  • 00:04:26
    talking about in recent weeks um that
  • 00:04:29
    Green Line basically trailing earnings
  • 00:04:31
    growth of the US it's in its own world
  • 00:04:34
    like quite literally in its own world
  • 00:04:36
    because you can see those other three
  • 00:04:38
    lines which is the world xus non us
  • 00:04:42
    developed which you can read that as
  • 00:04:43
    Europe Japan and then Emerging Markets
  • 00:04:45
    they're all sort of converging at that
  • 00:04:48
    same trailing earnings growth rate um
  • 00:04:50
    and then the second chart that brings it
  • 00:04:52
    all home Tony says I think this also
  • 00:04:55
    nicely frames another element of the US
  • 00:04:58
    versus rest of the world debate it's
  • 00:04:59
    playing out in real time based on the
  • 00:05:01
    relationship between price earnings
  • 00:05:03
    ratio and expected earnings growth
  • 00:05:06
    Market Behavior has largely been very
  • 00:05:09
    rational if you want to argue that China
  • 00:05:11
    and EM have been undervalued I concede
  • 00:05:13
    and would agree with you but again I
  • 00:05:15
    don't think that's more important than
  • 00:05:17
    the relative earnings question so these
  • 00:05:19
    dots for the most part fall nicely along
  • 00:05:24
    this this uh this line and basically
  • 00:05:27
    what you're seeing is where the census
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    um uh forward PE Falls meaning the
  • 00:05:34
    highest valuation stocks and if you're
  • 00:05:36
    listening to this you can picture the
  • 00:05:37
    NASDAQ 100 being um all the way toward
  • 00:05:41
    uh the highest growth rate and the
  • 00:05:43
    highest PE ratio the s&p500 uh right on
  • 00:05:47
    that same line 20 times forward with
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    about a 15% uh projected uh growth rate
  • 00:05:54
    and then you see Japan Europe UK lower
  • 00:05:57
    valuations lower growth China is way
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    below the line maybe it should uh given
  • 00:06:02
    its earnings growth rate maybe it should
  • 00:06:03
    be a higher multiple and then from my
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    perspective and this is what I want to
  • 00:06:07
    ask you I feel like uh one more second
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    chart back on I feel like the real
  • 00:06:11
    opportunity here is US small and midcap
  • 00:06:14
    so if you're not interested in
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    international stocks if we're using the
  • 00:06:18
    S&P 500 as a baseline the S&P midcap 400
  • 00:06:23
    and the S&P small cap 600 maybe should
  • 00:06:26
    not be the same multiple as the S&P but
  • 00:06:28
    the earnings growth rate is effectively
  • 00:06:31
    the same so it probably should not be a
  • 00:06:35
    discount to the degree that we're seeing
  • 00:06:37
    here on forward PE is that the same
  • 00:06:39
    takeaway that you get when you look at
  • 00:06:41
    this chart Michael so I have two I have
  • 00:06:42
    two takeaways Josh thank you for asking
  • 00:06:45
    could we show the first chart
  • 00:06:47
    please okay so it's almost like as if
  • 00:06:52
    price follows
  • 00:06:54
    fundamentals uh and the second chart is
  • 00:06:57
    showing the same thing the markets we're
  • 00:06:58
    not dumb
  • 00:07:00
    the market is discounting all of our
  • 00:07:02
    Collective wisdom and obviously
  • 00:07:03
    sometimes the crowd is goes mad but this
  • 00:07:06
    Jes the things that are growing the
  • 00:07:09
    fastest is what investors are paying up
  • 00:07:12
    for the mostest there's a rhyme and
  • 00:07:14
    reason yeah and so the question is will
  • 00:07:17
    there be a convergence has it gotten too
  • 00:07:19
    far and it's very early in the year but
  • 00:07:23
    so far International stocks
  • 00:07:25
    International develops are up almost 9%
  • 00:07:27
    while the S&P is up just 1 and a half%
  • 00:07:28
    that's combination of a weak weakening
  • 00:07:30
    dollar but maybe investor profence is
  • 00:07:31
    changing or maybe it's just noise right
  • 00:07:33
    it's it's it's it's it's it's 90 days I
  • 00:07:36
    think it's I think it's AI but in
  • 00:07:38
    Reverse okay so you're right so so
  • 00:07:40
    clearly there is a shink in the armor
  • 00:07:41
    and the AI trade but all of this
  • 00:07:43
    that we're about to talk about today
  • 00:07:44
    it's all mood until Wednesday afternoon
  • 00:07:46
    um Tes Tesla just just told us that it's
  • 00:07:51
    inter uh EUR European sales were cut in
  • 00:07:53
    half that yep I I just had that chart up
  • 00:07:55
    down 45% that is that's not good they
  • 00:07:58
    went from 188 th000 to 9,000 cars
  • 00:08:01
    registered in the is that a month that's
  • 00:08:03
    not good a month that's a really that's
  • 00:08:06
    I don't think that's a blip I think
  • 00:08:08
    that's a sign of uh worst to come in
  • 00:08:10
    that particular region and it's
  • 00:08:13
    understandable given the visibility and
  • 00:08:15
    the disdain uh the Trump Administration
  • 00:08:18
    seems to have toward um a lot a lot of
  • 00:08:21
    uh countries in Europe and they they're
  • 00:08:24
    they feel it uh and they and they don't
  • 00:08:27
    they don't want to be involved with his
  • 00:08:28
    brand right now maybe it's not permanent
  • 00:08:30
    but I don't think it's over was there
  • 00:08:32
    anything else that's Tony said in the
  • 00:08:33
    note that was worth mentioning I yeah
  • 00:08:35
    there's so much he's he's panoramic so I
  • 00:08:38
    just wanted to pull that one thing out
  • 00:08:40
    because look the longer that
  • 00:08:42
    outperformance
  • 00:08:44
    persists the more people will become
  • 00:08:47
    interested in it because that's just the
  • 00:08:48
    nature of the the this thing of ours and
  • 00:08:51
    uh I wouldn't be surprised if um I
  • 00:08:54
    wouldn't be surprised if we get into the
  • 00:08:56
    second quarter and that Trend persists
  • 00:08:59
    you start hearing much more table
  • 00:09:01
    pounding on um developed International
  • 00:09:04
    stock from strategist maybe I think for
  • 00:09:06
    the for the average investor it's going
  • 00:09:07
    to it would take like legitimately like
  • 00:09:09
    more than a year maybe even three instit
  • 00:09:11
    institutions are driving this retail is
  • 00:09:12
    not buying uh retail is not buying
  • 00:09:16
    Japanese stocks can we talk about about
  • 00:09:18
    the market sell off or laugh there off
  • 00:09:19
    actually so this is a chart it seems it
  • 00:09:22
    seems to be like there's there's some
  • 00:09:23
    palpable Fe feel fear excuse me on the
  • 00:09:25
    interwebs these days not necessarily
  • 00:09:26
    driven by the market although in some
  • 00:09:28
    areas of the market but this seems to be
  • 00:09:30
    the week that everybody was like hey
  • 00:09:31
    wait a minute things are pretty risky uh
  • 00:09:33
    I want to remind everybody two things uh
  • 00:09:36
    the long-term uptrend is still well
  • 00:09:38
    intact but also I I don't want to
  • 00:09:41
    dismiss the fact that there is some
  • 00:09:42
    nasty happening under the surface
  • 00:09:44
    and as as always the S&P 500 even the
  • 00:09:47
    equal weight doesn't tell the whole
  • 00:09:48
    story so chart kid goat made an
  • 00:09:52
    incredible chart showing that the
  • 00:09:54
    biggest winners have now turned into the
  • 00:09:56
    biggest losers so what we're looking at
  • 00:09:58
    here let me let me walk you through this
  • 00:10:00
    we're showing the top 50 performance for
  • 00:10:02
    the S&P 500 in the 30 days leading up to
  • 00:10:05
    the peak just last week okay on the
  • 00:10:07
    other axis we're showing that the
  • 00:10:10
    biggest winners are now the biggest
  • 00:10:11
    losers from 219 to today so for people
  • 00:10:13
    that are listening SM super micro which
  • 00:10:16
    actually is up a lot in the after hours
  • 00:10:17
    but super micro was up almost 100% in
  • 00:10:21
    the 30 days leading up to the peak
  • 00:10:23
    palent here was up almost 60% leading up
  • 00:10:25
    to the peak and now these stocks are
  • 00:10:28
    essentially in freef fall
  • 00:10:29
    dude this chart is so good I
  • 00:10:32
    know I mean Mt is CH kid Matt is just
  • 00:10:36
    out outrageous this is so good this is
  • 00:10:38
    so good because it it like
  • 00:10:42
    illustrates like uh not what goes up
  • 00:10:45
    must come down but like I think the
  • 00:10:47
    principle at at work here is live by the
  • 00:10:50
    gun die by the gun like you're not going
  • 00:10:53
    to be you're not going to ride a pal
  • 00:10:55
    tier up 400% in 4 months
  • 00:10:59
    and then have it gradually come down
  • 00:11:02
    that's just not it you don't get you no
  • 00:11:05
    offense like if that's your expectation
  • 00:11:07
    that that's how those rallies end it how
  • 00:11:11
    no how um one I forget who it was one of
  • 00:11:14
    the strategists had a not out midday
  • 00:11:16
    today that it's a retail flush um
  • 00:11:19
    they're not seeing institutional selling
  • 00:11:22
    and when you look at the the tickers
  • 00:11:24
    that sort of jobes he's a Robin Hood
  • 00:11:26
    stock dude paler is all retail holders
  • 00:11:28
    uh uh there been $3 billion worth of
  • 00:11:30
    Insider sales at paler zero Insider buys
  • 00:11:34
    right okay they know what's up this is a
  • 00:11:35
    retail driven stock um and next chart so
  • 00:11:38
    we've got we're showing paler down 30%
  • 00:11:42
    in just a week Tesla is down 37% from
  • 00:11:45
    its highs no longer a trillion dollar
  • 00:11:47
    stock and AMD right the market Cap's On
  • 00:11:50
    a trillion yeah dude uh broadcom too at
  • 00:11:52
    AMD remember that stock guy got cut in
  • 00:11:55
    half yeah terrible it's one of the wor
  • 00:11:58
    that's I mean a lot of people did that
  • 00:12:01
    substitution trade I miss vide so I'll
  • 00:12:04
    buy AMD yeah yeah and I did I tried
  • 00:12:06
    thank God I got out you know you know
  • 00:12:07
    what I forgot I forgot to put up here um
  • 00:12:09
    the most bullish chart in the world is
  • 00:12:11
    was the discretionary equal weight
  • 00:12:13
    divided by Staples and you have to equal
  • 00:12:15
    weight because if you don't it's all
  • 00:12:16
    Amazon and Tesla um staples are ripping
  • 00:12:19
    so not only not only is there so funny
  • 00:12:21
    that you say that not why um I wanted to
  • 00:12:25
    do that for one of my topics tonight and
  • 00:12:28
    you have any char I could talk through
  • 00:12:30
    it I I wanted to do the other stuff that
  • 00:12:31
    I'm doing so I don't have any charts but
  • 00:12:33
    go ahead all right so if there's
  • 00:12:35
    anything just in terms of technicals
  • 00:12:37
    because the market you know the index
  • 00:12:39
    looks intact but if there's anything
  • 00:12:41
    under the surface to worry about it's
  • 00:12:43
    the fact that Staples are catching a
  • 00:12:45
    serious bid and like the boring Staples
  • 00:12:48
    the boring um the stuff that you
  • 00:12:50
    don't want to see rallying and you're
  • 00:12:51
    seeing discussionary sell off so again
  • 00:12:53
    the bull market is intact the Bulls
  • 00:12:55
    deserve the benefit of the doubt forget
  • 00:12:57
    everything until Wednesday but they are
  • 00:12:59
    some there are some holes you can poke
  • 00:13:00
    in the market and again it's all good
  • 00:13:03
    we've been we're up 207% in 2023 207% in
  • 00:13:06
    24 like if we go sideways to God forbid
  • 00:13:08
    down a little bit I don't like to see
  • 00:13:09
    anybody lose money but you need a wall
  • 00:13:11
    of worry and we haven't had one in kind
  • 00:13:13
    of a while yeah I think the worry is
  • 00:13:15
    there and I think the wall of worry has
  • 00:13:18
    uh Invidia stamped right on the front of
  • 00:13:21
    it and we're not going to do a whole
  • 00:13:23
    thing on Nvidia tonight because it'll be
  • 00:13:25
    they're going to report tomorrow and uh
  • 00:13:27
    it'll be it'll be stale um you know by
  • 00:13:30
    the time some people listen to this but
  • 00:13:31
    we will react to it at the end of the
  • 00:13:33
    week on the compound and friends but
  • 00:13:35
    like I I was looking at my best stocks
  • 00:13:37
    in the market list that I keep with Shan
  • 00:13:39
    and Philip Morris International is the
  • 00:13:41
    hottest stock in America right now the
  • 00:13:43
    ticker is PM this is not Altria that's M
  • 00:13:47
    Mo this is Philip Morris International
  • 00:13:49
    this thing just literally hockey sticked
  • 00:13:52
    it was it was 100 bucks a year ago it's
  • 00:13:55
    157 and if you know this stock it does
  • 00:13:58
    not move that way um still has a 3 and
  • 00:14:01
    half% yield RSI off the charts like 85
  • 00:14:05
    this is straight up tobacco there's no
  • 00:14:07
    AI here like this is to like literally
  • 00:14:10
    so to at Staples um but then Koke hit my
  • 00:14:13
    list and I have a bunch of I have a
  • 00:14:15
    bunch of other names in that in that
  • 00:14:17
    vein so um it's a retail flush in the
  • 00:14:20
    retail stocks and if you have a name
  • 00:14:23
    that doubled last year there's a very
  • 00:14:24
    high likelihood that it's in a 20% draw
  • 00:14:27
    down right now that doesn't mean there's
  • 00:14:29
    wrong with the company or get rid of it
  • 00:14:31
    or you need to react but like live by
  • 00:14:33
    the gun die by the gun it has always and
  • 00:14:36
    ever been that way and that will never
  • 00:14:38
    change as long as uh as long as we're
  • 00:14:41
    all doing this so one one last thing
  • 00:14:43
    before we move on I I want to point out
  • 00:14:44
    again this is all mood because if Nvidia
  • 00:14:46
    shits a B on Wednesday then you know
  • 00:14:48
    we're going to be in trouble for a
  • 00:14:49
    little bit but the mag 7 right now are
  • 00:14:51
    in 11% beautiful imagery what did I say
  • 00:14:55
    shit's the bed we talk like that now
  • 00:14:58
    ladies there's like seven uh women
  • 00:15:00
    watching this right now um so the MA 7
  • 00:15:03
    they're they're getting hit they're in
  • 00:15:05
    an 11% draw down um and the S&P is only
  • 00:15:08
    in a 3% draw down so this idea that the
  • 00:15:10
    market can't rally without the tech
  • 00:15:12
    stocks is just not true has not been
  • 00:15:14
    true but again this might look like ass
  • 00:15:16
    on Wednesday afternoon so we'll see okay
  • 00:15:19
    moving on um Burkshire haway over the
  • 00:15:21
    weekend Burkshire half way all right set
  • 00:15:24
    us up so uh Sean actually made this
  • 00:15:27
    chart for me I said hey you know what
  • 00:15:29
    give me a chart make me a chart how long
  • 00:15:32
    I feel like Burkshire Warren's letters
  • 00:15:35
    have been getting shorter and shorter
  • 00:15:36
    and you know what I love it because I
  • 00:15:37
    don't need to read 45 of his pages I
  • 00:15:39
    we've read a zillion of them already so
  • 00:15:42
    he uh he said all that he has to say
  • 00:15:44
    Char down please look at this so the
  • 00:15:46
    average shareholder length since 1977 is
  • 00:15:49
    21 pages and uh I feel like Warren's
  • 00:15:52
    like you know what I'm good I said it
  • 00:15:53
    all I've said enough so I want to talk
  • 00:15:54
    about I want to talk about he's 94 yeah
  • 00:15:57
    it's enough he Warren Buffett is not
  • 00:15:59
    buying green bananas right now do you
  • 00:16:01
    understand so if you you need 36 pages
  • 00:16:05
    of commentary from this man get it from
  • 00:16:08
    somewhere else so three three things
  • 00:16:10
    that I want to talk about briefly Warren
  • 00:16:12
    says during the 2019 to 23 period I have
  • 00:16:15
    used the word mistake or error 16 times
  • 00:16:17
    my letters to you many other huge
  • 00:16:18
    companies have never used these words
  • 00:16:19
    over that span um all right whatever
  • 00:16:23
    so I I I I don't need to keep reading in
  • 00:16:26
    my book read it's good read it Amazon
  • 00:16:28
    kind shut ack knowledge made some
  • 00:16:29
    brutally candid observations in his 2021
  • 00:16:32
    letter elsewhere it has generally been
  • 00:16:33
    happy talking pictures so I in my book
  • 00:16:36
    big mistakes I went through all of his
  • 00:16:40
    letters and I counted how many times he
  • 00:16:42
    used the word mistake and Warren is the
  • 00:16:45
    only one I'm sure there are others but
  • 00:16:48
    he said it a lot I don't remember what
  • 00:16:50
    the count was when I wrote my book but
  • 00:16:51
    it was like hundreds of times we we're
  • 00:16:54
    all we're all imperfect and he's uh you
  • 00:16:57
    know yeah
  • 00:16:59
    um he he had a couple of great he had a
  • 00:17:03
    couple of great lines in this one he's I
  • 00:17:05
    mean the old man still got it I got to
  • 00:17:07
    tell you um one of the things he said
  • 00:17:10
    that I've never heard him say before but
  • 00:17:11
    I'm sure he has he's quoting someone
  • 00:17:15
    else that he's learned a lot
  • 00:17:17
    from um and wait what was the I want to
  • 00:17:21
    just I want to get the exact line I
  • 00:17:22
    don't want to paraphrase it he said he
  • 00:17:26
    said uh I forget who who imparted this
  • 00:17:28
    with to him but it was um I can't find
  • 00:17:33
    the actual uh compliment by name no
  • 00:17:37
    Praise by Praise by name criticize by
  • 00:17:39
    category Praise by name yeah criticized
  • 00:17:42
    by category meaning when he wants to say
  • 00:17:45
    something nice which he wrote this
  • 00:17:46
    beautiful encomium to somebody that he
  • 00:17:49
    bought a business from many years ago
  • 00:17:51
    who just passed away in this letter um
  • 00:17:54
    when he wants to say something nice he
  • 00:17:55
    will use the people's name sometimes
  • 00:17:57
    it's people that work for him
  • 00:17:59
    sometimes it's people he's done business
  • 00:18:00
    with and he will praise them by name
  • 00:18:04
    when he has something CTIC to say about
  • 00:18:07
    let's say investment bankers which he
  • 00:18:09
    does that a lot or politicians he never
  • 00:18:12
    uses people's names in in in a negative
  • 00:18:16
    way he'll talk about the category of
  • 00:18:18
    people and uh I really like that I I I
  • 00:18:21
    think I try to I think I try to do that
  • 00:18:23
    no you don't no you don't thank you you
  • 00:18:25
    don't in fact I do cuz I internalize
  • 00:18:28
    that I really do I remember uh I
  • 00:18:30
    remember we were with Ed borgato I can't
  • 00:18:31
    remember where we were but he he's the
  • 00:18:33
    one that I heard that line for the first
  • 00:18:34
    time obviously you know um referencing
  • 00:18:37
    Warren saying it but I as a big
  • 00:18:39
    Burkshire scholar but for real I really
  • 00:18:41
    internalize that because I don't like to
  • 00:18:43
    throw stones at people like so I think
  • 00:18:45
    it's a great way you think I like to
  • 00:18:46
    throw stones at people by name no not
  • 00:18:48
    necessarily blow people up like no you
  • 00:18:50
    don't but you're not you're not you're
  • 00:18:52
    not shy by naming
  • 00:18:54
    names okay well cuz I'm you know cuz I'm
  • 00:18:57
    I'm I'm Not Afraid like you are
  • 00:18:59
    so there's that there also that uh okay
  • 00:19:02
    here's another line mistakes Fade Away
  • 00:19:05
    winners can forever blossom and I know
  • 00:19:06
    you love this because we were talking
  • 00:19:08
    about this recently how all of the
  • 00:19:10
    winners all the Compounders take care of
  • 00:19:12
    all the pieces of
  • 00:19:13
    yeah and I think about you and I
  • 00:19:16
    and our business that we've built over
  • 00:19:18
    the last 11 years and some of the things
  • 00:19:19
    we've done wrong and you have a bunch of
  • 00:19:22
    things I have a bunch of things um more
  • 00:19:24
    than 11 years by the way but keep going
  • 00:19:25
    fine our our partners have uh a bunch of
  • 00:19:28
    things things that they got wrong like
  • 00:19:30
    those things go away but the stuff that
  • 00:19:33
    we've gotten right it keeps getting
  • 00:19:35
    better and I think there's an investing
  • 00:19:38
    or a trading corer to that because we're
  • 00:19:40
    talking about like managing a company
  • 00:19:41
    but like the the investing corer to that
  • 00:19:44
    is cutting losses sooner and not
  • 00:19:47
    dwelling on them and letting winners run
  • 00:19:49
    and I do think I think I do do that we
  • 00:19:52
    do and I I think what you're trying to
  • 00:19:54
    say Josh is what we do in life Echo an
  • 00:19:56
    eternity uh yeah I have always I have
  • 00:19:59
    always believed is that from Gladiator
  • 00:20:01
    yes last one this this really surprised
  • 00:20:04
    me in 2024 Burkshire did better than I
  • 00:20:06
    expected though 53% of our 189 operating
  • 00:20:10
    businesses reported decline in earnings
  • 00:20:12
    that was a huh for me but it didn't
  • 00:20:16
    matter because the most important
  • 00:20:18
    business there is Property and Casualty
  • 00:20:20
    Insurance that a very good leading with
  • 00:20:22
    leading with Geico he shouts out Todd
  • 00:20:25
    for helping to reshape Geico internal
  • 00:20:28
    but also it was just a great year for
  • 00:20:31
    PNC outside of the
  • 00:20:33
    wildfires um you really didn't have a
  • 00:20:36
    ton of natural and I don't mean to say
  • 00:20:37
    it like that like that wasn't in that um
  • 00:20:40
    but Warren Buffett says you know think
  • 00:20:42
    of wildfires when you think of major
  • 00:20:44
    disasters but they didn't have a
  • 00:20:46
    catastrophic loss or a series of
  • 00:20:48
    catastrophic losses at birkshire and
  • 00:20:51
    they also don't pay up for reinsurance
  • 00:20:54
    they have reinsurance subsidiaries
  • 00:20:55
    themselves and so as a result it was was
  • 00:20:58
    a great year for PNC underwriting uh
  • 00:21:01
    premiums went up um along with inflation
  • 00:21:04
    some would say much faster than
  • 00:21:05
    inflation which means revenue and and
  • 00:21:08
    therefore earnings growth so it was a
  • 00:21:09
    great year for the core business at
  • 00:21:11
    birkshire um think the railroad did
  • 00:21:13
    great I think the utility did great but
  • 00:21:15
    like uh that's really what matters those
  • 00:21:18
    189 businesses that he's talking about
  • 00:21:21
    some of them are like we make saltwater
  • 00:21:23
    taffy so like seriously Brooks running
  • 00:21:25
    shoes like that could go to zero
  • 00:21:27
    tomorrow and stock price wouldn't budge
  • 00:21:29
    so that's really the the main point
  • 00:21:31
    there before we get to the cash pile
  • 00:21:33
    which is always a big topic uh every
  • 00:21:35
    time he reports look at this gangster
  • 00:21:37
    chart from Alex Morris birkshire
  • 00:21:39
    Hathaway ownership uh percentage
  • 00:21:41
    ownership of American Express that's the
  • 00:21:44
    AMX buyback effect yes that's what we're
  • 00:21:47
    saying here yes how many how many
  • 00:21:49
    reasons have there been to trim to sell
  • 00:21:51
    to take winners but this mfer he gets it
  • 00:21:55
    okay he's uh he does what I can the W he
  • 00:21:57
    lets the winners for ever Blossom yeah I
  • 00:22:00
    am very buff Ates in this respect so for
  • 00:22:02
    the people listening chart back on we're
  • 00:22:04
    showing you from
  • 00:22:05
    2010 Burkshire Hathaway had
  • 00:22:09
    12.6% of all of the outstanding stock of
  • 00:22:11
    American Express in 2024 that number is
  • 00:22:15
    more like 21% and I do not think they
  • 00:22:17
    were out in the open market buying it
  • 00:22:20
    because it was already a very large
  • 00:22:21
    position proportionally so what ends up
  • 00:22:23
    happening is as American Express buys
  • 00:22:26
    back shares each year and shrinks its
  • 00:22:28
    float but Burkshire haway maintains its
  • 00:22:31
    position they end up going from 12% to
  • 00:22:34
    over 20% of the of the the company's uh
  • 00:22:38
    shares outstanding and therefore um its
  • 00:22:40
    earnings and um that's a super powerful
  • 00:22:44
    concept that uh I think people can learn
  • 00:22:47
    from it's glacial like you don't he did
  • 00:22:50
    that with apple too like you don't see
  • 00:22:52
    that happening dayto day there's no
  • 00:22:55
    there's no data point in your brokerage
  • 00:22:57
    account telling you how your percentage
  • 00:22:59
    of a company is growing although maybe
  • 00:23:01
    that would be a great idea for a fintech
  • 00:23:02
    to come up with that but it's happening
  • 00:23:04
    and it's meaningful after 15 years go by
  • 00:23:07
    so Josh let me ask you something does
  • 00:23:08
    Warren know something that we
  • 00:23:10
    don't that's a great question why is
  • 00:23:13
    Warren Buffett stockpiling cash yeah
  • 00:23:15
    what's the dollar amount now okay so
  • 00:23:17
    we'll get to the proportion and the
  • 00:23:19
    percentage but what is the actual dollar
  • 00:23:20
    the dollar amount is
  • 00:23:23
    35 billion in cash and treasuries now
  • 00:23:27
    the market cap of this company has gone
  • 00:23:28
    up 50% over the last year one of the
  • 00:23:31
    best years ever for Berkshire Hathaway
  • 00:23:34
    common stock so right off the that has
  • 00:23:37
    the cash position gone up faster than
  • 00:23:41
    the overall market cap of the entity
  • 00:23:43
    that I don't know but it's not but
  • 00:23:46
    that's not the metric I almost had chart
  • 00:23:48
    can Matt do that I said don't don't do
  • 00:23:49
    that we've got Lucas La Lozano on the
  • 00:23:52
    case and what Lucas did was he made a
  • 00:23:53
    chart that compares the total cash and
  • 00:23:56
    bl and bonds to the float
  • 00:23:59
    and the ratio between there that's what
  • 00:24:00
    you want to pay attention to the market
  • 00:24:02
    cap obviously is a good adjuster but the
  • 00:24:03
    real adjuster is the float what are the
  • 00:24:04
    liabilities or potential liabilities so
  • 00:24:06
    here we go so it's it's really been
  • 00:24:09
    close to one to one this whole time so
  • 00:24:10
    so any that shows the total
  • 00:24:12
    catch of bonds piling up without any
  • 00:24:14
    context forget about them forever
  • 00:24:15
    they're dead to you okay you have to
  • 00:24:17
    show mainstream media does that because
  • 00:24:19
    you'll click you'll click on it yeah
  • 00:24:20
    it's aoke we know it's a joke and now
  • 00:24:21
    our listeners do too um but it is true
  • 00:24:25
    it is true that in the most recent
  • 00:24:27
    quarter the coverage the cash and bonds
  • 00:24:30
    to float shot up dramatically so um this
  • 00:24:34
    guy Lucas has some really great takes on
  • 00:24:37
    this he's basically saying that uh a sub
  • 00:24:41
    that apple and Bank of America are the
  • 00:24:43
    two ones so Apple at one point was $175
  • 00:24:46
    billion Equity position which was 50% of
  • 00:24:48
    the portfolio um along with Bank of
  • 00:24:51
    America which had a mass a a$ 41 billion
  • 00:24:53
    portion so why is he hoarding all this
  • 00:24:56
    cash Lucas gives a few reasons but two
  • 00:24:58
    that I wanted to point out he said at
  • 00:24:59
    the last annual shareholder meeting
  • 00:25:01
    Buffett himself cuz he was asked this
  • 00:25:03
    question Buffett himself alluded to the
  • 00:25:05
    elephant of the room uh when a question
  • 00:25:07
    was asked about why he sold something s
  • 00:25:08
    in apple and he said Uncle Sam so
  • 00:25:10
    there's a chart of the federal corporate
  • 00:25:13
    tax rate declining over time and Warren
  • 00:25:16
    Buffett is probably thinking that that's
  • 00:25:17
    not going to go much lower so uh he said
  • 00:25:21
    that Buffett RI the Bandit off now to
  • 00:25:23
    potentially avoid a larger tax bill down
  • 00:25:25
    the road Point number one point number
  • 00:25:28
    two and really this point number oh
  • 00:25:30
    selling the stock as a corporation the
  • 00:25:33
    the the money that you will could could
  • 00:25:35
    owe on gains could go up that's weird to
  • 00:25:37
    do that in year one of the Trump
  • 00:25:38
    Administration but but he's been saying
  • 00:25:40
    that he said that last time yeah so he
  • 00:25:42
    also says and I think this is I think
  • 00:25:43
    this is spot on I can't emphasize this
  • 00:25:46
    enough he said I think he is starting to
  • 00:25:47
    see The Horizon on his time- making
  • 00:25:49
    decisions and this enormous cash pile is
  • 00:25:52
    his parting gift to his air parent Greg
  • 00:25:54
    AEL who will take over a CEO when
  • 00:25:56
    Buffett punches out for the final time I
  • 00:25:58
    really believe that what if both of
  • 00:26:00
    those two things are true but then also
  • 00:26:03
    a third stocks are stocks are expensive
  • 00:26:05
    there's a third thing so I think there's
  • 00:26:07
    that's part of it but the real thing is
  • 00:26:09
    the what he would need to be what he
  • 00:26:12
    would need to buy that's required to
  • 00:26:13
    move the needle at that size it's a
  • 00:26:15
    small small list right so I think I
  • 00:26:18
    think stocks being expensive as part of
  • 00:26:20
    that but uh I think it's all three of
  • 00:26:22
    those things look he's liquidating
  • 00:26:24
    shares in the banks they went up so much
  • 00:26:28
    liquidating Apple it went up so much and
  • 00:26:31
    everything that he's selling is selling
  • 00:26:33
    at maybe a 50 to
  • 00:26:36
    100% price earnings premium uh multiple
  • 00:26:40
    premium to where it was when he bought
  • 00:26:42
    it this is the definition of Buy Low
  • 00:26:45
    sell high and he is really excited about
  • 00:26:49
    some of his other Investments they're
  • 00:26:50
    just not here the five Japanese trading
  • 00:26:52
    houses that he bought he's made I think
  • 00:26:55
    an average of 50% on those Investments
  • 00:26:57
    he got got into that in the letter over
  • 00:26:59
    the over the weekend also they're
  • 00:27:01
    incredibly run companies their stocks
  • 00:27:03
    have been going up along with the n and
  • 00:27:05
    so he is excited about and he thinks
  • 00:27:07
    they're going higher he is excited about
  • 00:27:09
    stocks just not us large caps right now
  • 00:27:12
    and that so all of those things could be
  • 00:27:14
    true but also he thinks stocks are
  • 00:27:17
    expensive I want to I want to um tack
  • 00:27:19
    back though um Mr drock Inc in the chat
  • 00:27:23
    is saying how much of their insurance
  • 00:27:25
    liabil grown this is a really key thing
  • 00:27:28
    as the insurance company gets bigger its
  • 00:27:31
    future liabilities uh grow along with
  • 00:27:34
    that you have premium growth you also
  • 00:27:36
    have liability growth and he gets into
  • 00:27:39
    that in the letter about how he's got
  • 00:27:42
    pessimists uh running his insurance
  • 00:27:44
    companies not optimists and companies
  • 00:27:48
    that are in the insurance business and
  • 00:27:50
    they make all kinds of hay when they're
  • 00:27:51
    selling new um new policies they're
  • 00:27:55
    bringing in all this money they better
  • 00:27:57
    be really honest about what could happen
  • 00:27:59
    as a result of that so I think the
  • 00:28:01
    insurance liabilities growing is another
  • 00:28:03
    part of the story I do want to quote
  • 00:28:05
    Michael Garis who uh I thought this was
  • 00:28:08
    a really good chart um let's do this one
  • 00:28:11
    the highlighted one
  • 00:28:12
    John this is equity Securities as a
  • 00:28:16
    percentage of total
  • 00:28:18
    assets um all right so what you can see
  • 00:28:21
    here or if you can't see it in 2005
  • 00:28:26
    24% of birkshire hathway
  • 00:28:28
    total assets were in stocks that's like
  • 00:28:32
    American Express Coca-Cola yada y yada
  • 00:28:34
    okay that number has been all over the
  • 00:28:37
    place but it seems to have normalized at
  • 00:28:40
    about 24% over time since then 20 years
  • 00:28:43
    ago and that's where we are today and
  • 00:28:46
    Michael says much is being made about
  • 00:28:48
    the sizable increase in cash position
  • 00:28:50
    and subsequent decline INE Equitable
  • 00:28:53
    Securities which I get but if you look
  • 00:28:55
    at it as a percentage of total assets it
  • 00:28:57
    looked maybe like a reversion to the
  • 00:28:59
    mean Equity Securities as a percent of
  • 00:29:02
    total total assets fell from 33% to 24%
  • 00:29:06
    but the 20-year average is
  • 00:29:09
    25% um so there is some element of just
  • 00:29:12
    like maybe the Securities portfolio as a
  • 00:29:15
    percentage of total assets was way
  • 00:29:18
    higher than normal for an extended
  • 00:29:20
    period of time and now it seems to have
  • 00:29:22
    settled out at a baseline what do you
  • 00:29:23
    think about this
  • 00:29:25
    chart um it's noisy but I think it pains
  • 00:29:27
    the picture that we're talking about
  • 00:29:29
    which is yeah I'm sure Buffett does
  • 00:29:31
    think that stocks are expensive I mean
  • 00:29:33
    obviously he doesn't think they're cheap
  • 00:29:34
    but I really do believe what what Lucas
  • 00:29:36
    said that I think he's trying to leave
  • 00:29:38
    Abel like in a bullet proof position now
  • 00:29:41
    that being said if next year stocks are
  • 00:29:44
    40% cheaper I have no doubt that he'll
  • 00:29:45
    fire the
  • 00:29:47
    gun I don't I don't understand why he
  • 00:29:50
    doesn't just acquire Uber it just
  • 00:29:52
    honestly it's like mindboggling this is
  • 00:29:54
    a buff this is a perfect Burkshire haway
  • 00:29:57
    business it's Domin dominant has
  • 00:29:59
    dominant market share obviously not the
  • 00:30:01
    only player dominant market share it's a
  • 00:30:03
    toll collecting machine huge cash flows
  • 00:30:07
    um not an outrageous valuation relative
  • 00:30:10
    to the projected earnings growth and
  • 00:30:12
    honestly he's bought railroads like he
  • 00:30:15
    understands the value of owning a
  • 00:30:17
    transportation Network they have a
  • 00:30:19
    Freight business too I just I can't
  • 00:30:22
    understand why he won't just acquire
  • 00:30:23
    Uber and why won't he buy IMAX too
  • 00:30:25
    that's how movies are how we transport
  • 00:30:26
    our emotions how you get in touch with
  • 00:30:28
    this do you have to I have to write him
  • 00:30:30
    like an old timey letter on a
  • 00:30:31
    typewriter how would it he wants like a
  • 00:30:34
    he want he wants it in pencil pencil no
  • 00:30:37
    typewriter no God's sake will you just
  • 00:30:39
    will you just buy Uber and make D CEO
  • 00:30:42
    for life and just let's let's do this
  • 00:30:44
    right okay that's it I have nothing else
  • 00:30:48
    um the FED is talking about the effect
  • 00:30:50
    of AI but not in the way that you might
  • 00:30:53
    think and I thought these comments were
  • 00:30:54
    really interesting and I wanted you to
  • 00:30:56
    react to them this is a speech last week
  • 00:30:59
    um from one of the uh one of the policy
  • 00:31:02
    setting Governors uh
  • 00:31:04
    Jefferson for now I do not think
  • 00:31:06
    artificial intelligence is changing the
  • 00:31:08
    way policy makers communicate but
  • 00:31:10
    research shows it has affected how
  • 00:31:13
    quickly information about policy is
  • 00:31:16
    incorporated into asset
  • 00:31:18
    prices um further research is needed he
  • 00:31:21
    said to determine whether the faster
  • 00:31:23
    speed is allowing monetary policy to get
  • 00:31:26
    transmitted faster through the economy
  • 00:31:29
    or as some worry that it quote May
  • 00:31:32
    provide an incentive for investors to
  • 00:31:35
    Value speed over accuracy and may reduce
  • 00:31:38
    the long run informativeness of asset
  • 00:31:41
    prices which could hurt the transmission
  • 00:31:43
    of monetary policy in any event
  • 00:31:45
    Jefferson said research makes it clear
  • 00:31:47
    that it's not just investors but also
  • 00:31:49
    households that pay attention and
  • 00:31:51
    respond to monetary policy
  • 00:31:52
    pronouncements policy makers he said
  • 00:31:54
    should communicate as clearly as Okay so
  • 00:31:58
    this is something that you and I have
  • 00:31:59
    talked about like how quickly these
  • 00:32:02
    economic reports are factored into asset
  • 00:32:05
    prices and the fact that it happens in
  • 00:32:08
    one second probably diminishes the value
  • 00:32:11
    of looking at any of these signals past
  • 00:32:13
    10 minutes from now yeah and we used to
  • 00:32:15
    look at these as signals for like the
  • 00:32:17
    next three months throw it out forget it
  • 00:32:20
    yeah um because it's uh it's now with AI
  • 00:32:24
    being used all over um trading desks Etc
  • 00:32:28
    everything is instant Powell has spoken
  • 00:32:30
    about this but this is how is this AI
  • 00:32:32
    this sounds more like like internet it
  • 00:32:34
    is AI this sounds more social social
  • 00:32:36
    media related how is this
  • 00:32:38
    AI because he's saying that um he's
  • 00:32:43
    saying that I guess I don't know he's
  • 00:32:46
    saying it's he's saying it's AI I don't
  • 00:32:48
    know maybe AI is faster than like social
  • 00:32:52
    media like like maybe like social media
  • 00:32:55
    was moving the signals quickly but now
  • 00:32:57
    ai is doing it instantly okay I don't
  • 00:32:59
    know about all that but but like I said
  • 00:33:01
    Powell has said like the market does a
  • 00:33:03
    really good job reacting to what we're
  • 00:33:05
    trying to
  • 00:33:06
    do yeah um I like that they're aware of
  • 00:33:09
    it all right so speaking of real AI jash
  • 00:33:14
    the robots are coming there's a company
  • 00:33:18
    called Figure AI have you heard about
  • 00:33:20
    this
  • 00:33:21
    company uh I feel like I've heard of it
  • 00:33:23
    but I don't know anything about it so
  • 00:33:24
    they raised their series a in March
  • 00:33:26
    2023 they raised $70
  • 00:33:29
    million not even one year later they
  • 00:33:32
    raised
  • 00:33:33
    $675 million out of $2.6 billion
  • 00:33:36
    valuation and just one year later today
  • 00:33:39
    they're out raising 1.5 billion at a $40
  • 00:33:42
    billion valuation Dy can we throw
  • 00:33:45
    this this uh this this video on for a
  • 00:33:48
    sec we don't to watch the whole thing
  • 00:33:49
    but oh do we not have the video that's
  • 00:33:52
    okay we have a screen we have a
  • 00:33:53
    screenshot I get the idea these two
  • 00:33:54
    robots are about to make out with each
  • 00:33:56
    other furiously really really steamy but
  • 00:33:59
    the point is uh the I think it's the
  • 00:34:02
    found who goes on screen and he puts
  • 00:34:04
    down like a tray of uh there's an apple
  • 00:34:07
    there's a Snickers Barn there's a box of
  • 00:34:08
    tissues or something like this and he
  • 00:34:11
    tells them uh Hey figure out where these
  • 00:34:13
    go and they put they open the fridge
  • 00:34:16
    they put the fruit on the counter
  • 00:34:18
    like this is out of sight take the under
  • 00:34:21
    on robots in the home I don't know man
  • 00:34:23
    fine whatever but the point is like a
  • 00:34:25
    lot of this is happening I think a lot
  • 00:34:26
    of people are really aware like whether
  • 00:34:28
    we're one year away or three years or or
  • 00:34:31
    15 you're Infinity away it's not going
  • 00:34:33
    to happen and I'll explain to you why
  • 00:34:35
    Step One is robots in the warehouse
  • 00:34:37
    already exist most of them do not look
  • 00:34:39
    humanoid a lot of the warehouse robots
  • 00:34:41
    it's like an arm with like a camera and
  • 00:34:44
    a monitor on its head and the whole
  • 00:34:46
    thing is just one arm but it's picking
  • 00:34:48
    and packing in an Amazon building near
  • 00:34:51
    you and it's a robot for all intents and
  • 00:34:53
    purposes it's not like a Star
  • 00:34:56
    Wars robot but it's a robot that's
  • 00:34:58
    that's uh old news but wait I don't want
  • 00:35:00
    to get hung up on I don't want to get H
  • 00:35:01
    up on humanoids robots in the house I'm
  • 00:35:04
    just saying robots Okay well that's what
  • 00:35:06
    his thing is about um so let me let me
  • 00:35:08
    go through my progression here what's
  • 00:35:10
    coming next is robots in the
  • 00:35:12
    hospital um we have a crisis on our
  • 00:35:15
    hands we still have 69 billion uh 69
  • 00:35:19
    million Boomers just in America uh Japan
  • 00:35:22
    is effectively an old age home China's
  • 00:35:25
    got tons of old people not enough not
  • 00:35:28
    enough there's not enough young people
  • 00:35:30
    willing or able to take care of um and
  • 00:35:34
    so I think healthcare humanoid robots
  • 00:35:37
    are probably next after Factory humanoid
  • 00:35:40
    robots but this the pace of this like
  • 00:35:43
    you'll see one and it'll be like a news
  • 00:35:45
    story but like when are you going to see
  • 00:35:47
    a million robots in hospitals carrying
  • 00:35:49
    people around and pushing them on
  • 00:35:50
    stretchers a very long time doing
  • 00:35:53
    surgery even longer we know it's coming
  • 00:35:56
    the speed will put you to to sleep until
  • 00:35:58
    one day you wake up and they're all
  • 00:35:59
    around you so that's robots in the
  • 00:36:02
    military is what's right after that
  • 00:36:05
    humanoid robots in the military in my
  • 00:36:08
    opinion puts an end to planet Earth so
  • 00:36:10
    we won't get yeah we won't get to the
  • 00:36:12
    robots in the home because robots with
  • 00:36:15
    guns are going to just put put us all
  • 00:36:17
    out of our misery so right I'll take the
  • 00:36:19
    under on a robot peeling a banana in my
  • 00:36:22
    house I I don't I don't I don't think uh
  • 00:36:24
    I don't think that's something I need to
  • 00:36:25
    think too much about we say
  • 00:36:28
    uh that's where I am okay next top okay
  • 00:36:30
    Bitcoin is crashing and I am told by a
  • 00:36:35
    little bird that you were a size buyer
  • 00:36:39
    this afternoon uh in in in the on the
  • 00:36:42
    Bitcoin exchange did you call a broker
  • 00:36:44
    on the exchange or how do you I bought a
  • 00:36:46
    little Bitcoin a little soul listen I
  • 00:36:48
    crashing it's down 20% it's it's
  • 00:36:50
    crashing Michael going down uh it's the
  • 00:36:53
    speed it's not the depth Bitcoin was up
  • 00:36:55
    3% this year through February 19th and
  • 00:36:58
    then momentum stocks started selling off
  • 00:37:00
    and as I've told you Bitcoin is the
  • 00:37:02
    eighth mag s stock um I don't know if
  • 00:37:05
    you agree with that or not but that's
  • 00:37:06
    that's my I do but listen it's above the
  • 00:37:08
    200 moving average I'm sorry that's not
  • 00:37:09
    a crash sorry okay Bitcoin is 18% below
  • 00:37:13
    its alltime highs which is a crash it is
  • 00:37:15
    the largest draw down since the Japanese
  • 00:37:17
    car trade blow up last black stone is
  • 00:37:19
    down 18% is that crashing come on uh no
  • 00:37:24
    all right fine so what's a crash 30 uh
  • 00:37:27
    may say 30
  • 00:37:28
    yeah okay I don't think he can get down
  • 00:37:29
    30% honestly oh of course
  • 00:37:32
    can I feel like they're going to they're
  • 00:37:34
    going to rush in and buy I think he made
  • 00:37:35
    a good purchase today thank you keep
  • 00:37:37
    going but here's Bloomberg on uh crypto
  • 00:37:40
    ETFs which I found interesting maybe I
  • 00:37:42
    shouldn't have why do I call this the
  • 00:37:44
    eth mag s stock um the ey shares Bitcoin
  • 00:37:48
    trust ETF the largest spot Bitcoin fund
  • 00:37:50
    shed $158 million on Monday in a rare
  • 00:37:54
    outflow while investors pulled nearly
  • 00:37:57
    200 50 million from the Fidelity wise
  • 00:37:59
    origin Bitcoin fund that's their uh ETF
  • 00:38:03
    um that's the third largest withdrawal
  • 00:38:05
    among all ETFs including stocks uh more
  • 00:38:08
    than 956 million has exited from us
  • 00:38:11
    listed spot Bitcoin ETFs in the month of
  • 00:38:13
    February the worst month on record for
  • 00:38:16
    the category granted we have 13 months
  • 00:38:19
    it's a lot of it's a lot of money um
  • 00:38:20
    bullish bets on crypto have seen Hefty
  • 00:38:22
    liquidations over the last two days 8815
  • 00:38:26
    million out and then 860 million out the
  • 00:38:29
    next day according to coin glass
  • 00:38:32
    Perpetual Futures which is how offshore
  • 00:38:35
    investors um by these ETFs um have also
  • 00:38:38
    seen leverage long positions drop these
  • 00:38:42
    stocks are acting like we talked about
  • 00:38:44
    the retail puke 15 minutes ago um and
  • 00:38:47
    with with all of the Robin Hood stocks
  • 00:38:50
    and these to me these stock uh these
  • 00:38:53
    ETFs are doing what Tesla is doing why
  • 00:38:56
    why does this persist The Leverage with
  • 00:38:57
    bitco who are these Maniacs just getting
  • 00:38:59
    It's never enough It's never enough oh
  • 00:39:02
    this asset can go up 20% a month what if
  • 00:39:05
    I need it to go up 60% a
  • 00:39:08
    month it's Stupify I don't I don't get I
  • 00:39:10
    think it's brain damage now here's
  • 00:39:12
    what's really interesting to
  • 00:39:14
    me this is happening in the midst of
  • 00:39:16
    things that were supposed to have been
  • 00:39:17
    positive catalysts for Bitcoin and maybe
  • 00:39:20
    that's why people were so levered up
  • 00:39:22
    right now Michael sailor finally got to
  • 00:39:24
    pitch his Bitcoin Reserve idea to the
  • 00:39:26
    SEC which he did Friday and then over
  • 00:39:29
    the weekend he can you imagine uh and
  • 00:39:31
    then over the weekend he spoke at CPAC
  • 00:39:34
    um I should say we're putting Michael
  • 00:39:35
    sailor on stage at uh future proof
  • 00:39:38
    Citywide in Miami next month I think
  • 00:39:40
    that's going to be the biggest crowd of
  • 00:39:42
    the of the whole week I'll be there dude
  • 00:39:45
    everyone's going to want to hear what he
  • 00:39:46
    has to say and and watch him say it live
  • 00:39:49
    anyway um Sor went to CPAC which is the
  • 00:39:54
    uh uh conservative um I guess like the
  • 00:39:57
    laa paloa for for far right-wing people
  • 00:40:00
    and he said the US should stock up on
  • 00:40:04
    20% of bitcoin's total Supply quote the
  • 00:40:08
    dollar would strengthen the nation would
  • 00:40:10
    be enriched and if you own 4 to6 million
  • 00:40:14
    Bitcoin you are going to pay off the
  • 00:40:16
    national debt somebody should tell them
  • 00:40:17
    that somebody has to buy those Bitcoin
  • 00:40:19
    but you you're going to sell it and
  • 00:40:20
    crash it all I don't I don't okay uh
  • 00:40:23
    ever the BTC maximalist sailor rejected
  • 00:40:25
    Notions of including crypto currencies
  • 00:40:27
    other than Bitcoin in a US strategic
  • 00:40:30
    Reserve with a uh blah that would cost
  • 00:40:34
    413 billion dollar if the US were to buy
  • 00:40:37
    4.2 million Bitcoin or 20% of the supply
  • 00:40:41
    as per vanc uh the US national debt
  • 00:40:44
    currently stands at 36 trillion could be
  • 00:40:46
    as high as 116 trillion by 2049 remember
  • 00:40:50
    I told you won't matter the robots will
  • 00:40:52
    kill us all before um if the US
  • 00:40:54
    purchased just 1 million Bitcoin at
  • 00:40:56
    $100,000
  • 00:40:58
    with a compound annual growth rate of
  • 00:41:00
    25% which is 10% lower than its last
  • 00:41:04
    5year average the US Bitcoin Reserve
  • 00:41:07
    would be worth an astonishing 21
  • 00:41:09
    trillion by 2049 so the idea is that the
  • 00:41:12
    Bitcoin stockpile will grow faster than
  • 00:41:15
    the rate of the national debt and
  • 00:41:17
    problem solved this was not a bullish
  • 00:41:20
    Catalyst uh they came in on Monday and
  • 00:41:22
    they liquidated Bitcoin just like
  • 00:41:24
    they're doing with uh other momentum
  • 00:41:26
    stocks last thing there were three state
  • 00:41:31
    bills in individual states about
  • 00:41:34
    creating a strategic Bitcoin reserve for
  • 00:41:37
    that state Montana North Dakota and
  • 00:41:42
    Wyoming um one of those States is uh
  • 00:41:46
    where Senator Cynthia Lumis she is like
  • 00:41:49
    the Bitcoin person in Congress um all
  • 00:41:52
    three were downvoted in the last month
  • 00:41:55
    so Texas is the big one that that vote
  • 00:41:57
    is coming up and in my opinion from what
  • 00:42:00
    I've read it seems likely that they will
  • 00:42:02
    do it because Texas is adventurous like
  • 00:42:05
    that um here's what the Montana the
  • 00:42:08
    representative who voted against it
  • 00:42:10
    said uh Stephen Kelly this just smacks
  • 00:42:13
    of speculation so like not everybody in
  • 00:42:17
    these red States is on board with like
  • 00:42:20
    the Elon crypto Revolution and I think
  • 00:42:24
    th those were supposed to be positive
  • 00:42:26
    catalysts for bit coin and they and they
  • 00:42:28
    didn't they failed to materialize uh
  • 00:42:30
    here's Michael salor we have a picture
  • 00:42:31
    of
  • 00:42:33
    him considering a second job to acquire
  • 00:42:35
    more Bitcoin and he put himself in a
  • 00:42:38
    Bitcoin McDonald's uh I like this guy I
  • 00:42:41
    don't give a um I don't have to buy
  • 00:42:42
    his fund I just this gu this guy's
  • 00:42:45
    nuts I don't
  • 00:42:47
    care he tweeted this I don't I don't
  • 00:42:51
    know do you think he made it or like did
  • 00:42:54
    he a AI made all right last thing uh I
  • 00:42:58
    know I keep saying that I asked Sean to
  • 00:43:00
    show us the premium in micro or we're
  • 00:43:04
    calling it strategy the premium in
  • 00:43:06
    strategy over its nav and I don't know
  • 00:43:09
    where this chart comes from I'll assume
  • 00:43:10
    it's it's good so what you can see here
  • 00:43:14
    is that the premium above the nav is
  • 00:43:18
    just absolutely collapsing um do I have
  • 00:43:22
    the oh and here are some Bitcoin charts
  • 00:43:24
    that we made that's a crash that that's
  • 00:43:26
    a that's a almost that's a crash and
  • 00:43:28
    that makes sense because now there's 75
  • 00:43:30
    companies that are acting as Bitcoin
  • 00:43:31
    treasuries so why would that premium be
  • 00:43:34
    as high as it was yeah here's six months
  • 00:43:37
    Bitcoin here's five years Bitcoin so put
  • 00:43:40
    that put that drop into context it's
  • 00:43:42
    nothing at 91,000 this is still a huge
  • 00:43:46
    winner and then let me show you six
  • 00:43:48
    months here's
  • 00:43:52
    strategy um that hurts looks like close
  • 00:43:56
    to 500 that's that almost 50 that's that
  • 00:43:58
    almost 50 so that's in a 50% draw down
  • 00:44:00
    right now so if this past November and
  • 00:44:03
    December you were suicidal that you
  • 00:44:04
    missed it well now it's cut in half yeah
  • 00:44:07
    um let's do this next chart this is the
  • 00:44:10
    2x long and the 2x short micro strategy
  • 00:44:13
    I love these because you could lose both
  • 00:44:14
    ways so I stole this from from economic
  • 00:44:17
    our friend Jake on Twitter this is just
  • 00:44:18
    astonishing so since October 20th for
  • 00:44:20
    those who are listening micro strategy
  • 00:44:22
    is got nowhere it's down 2% um but the
  • 00:44:24
    2x long is down 42% and the 2x short is
  • 00:44:26
    down 71% so that's stop doing this okay
  • 00:44:30
    fine dude I will no not you the people
  • 00:44:33
    who are doing put that chart back up
  • 00:44:36
    this is an IQ test do you want to pass
  • 00:44:38
    or do you want to fail and I know people
  • 00:44:41
    don't hold these long term or they're
  • 00:44:43
    they know they're not supposed to but
  • 00:44:44
    just stop doing this put uh put the next
  • 00:44:46
    chart up that illustrates this to your
  • 00:44:49
    point micro strategy is in purple it's
  • 00:44:52
    flat the 2x long is -42%
  • 00:44:57
    and the 2x short is negative
  • 00:44:59
    70% what are you doing what is the what
  • 00:45:02
    is the point of this game now in
  • 00:45:06
    sympathy with Bitcoin here are your
  • 00:45:08
    Bitcoin proxies in the publicly traded
  • 00:45:10
    US Stock Market here is Robin
  • 00:45:13
    Hood this is this retail flush we're
  • 00:45:16
    talking about this is both the
  • 00:45:17
    facilitator of the retail flush and one
  • 00:45:19
    of the stocks caught up it is in a 30%
  • 00:45:22
    draw down since Valentine's Day yeah um
  • 00:45:25
    next one is coinbase
  • 00:45:27
    this is a this is uh I mean look it was
  • 00:45:30
    a huge winner on the way up since the
  • 00:45:31
    election gave it all back this stock is
  • 00:45:34
    212 back to where it was when Trump was
  • 00:45:37
    elected coinbase does not look good
  • 00:45:39
    Robin Hood still looks very viable but
  • 00:45:40
    uh coinbase is not Robin Hood blessed
  • 00:45:42
    their heart they have other businesses
  • 00:45:43
    that they're in and maybe they aren't as
  • 00:45:45
    susceptible to a draw down in crypto
  • 00:45:47
    assets as coinbase uh is would be the
  • 00:45:50
    way I would explain it but anyway um I
  • 00:45:53
    think the point that I want people to
  • 00:45:55
    take away and I want to hear if you have
  • 00:45:56
    one too
  • 00:45:58
    these things are going to happen where
  • 00:45:59
    you're going to miss these unbelievable
  • 00:46:01
    rallies and you just you're going to be
  • 00:46:03
    so despondent the worst thing you could
  • 00:46:06
    do in most cases is like compound that
  • 00:46:10
    error by by
  • 00:46:13
    being by being exit liquidity for
  • 00:46:15
    somebody who did catch the rally and
  • 00:46:18
    taking them out at the top yeah and
  • 00:46:20
    sometimes it's not the top and it keeps
  • 00:46:22
    going of course but like if you can
  • 00:46:24
    restrain yourself from just that one
  • 00:46:27
    negative behavior it's it's so
  • 00:46:29
    meaningful to your to your long-term
  • 00:46:31
    returns yeah okay I am going to make the
  • 00:46:34
    case uh it's it's time to tighten up
  • 00:46:37
    okay clean up the garbage get rid of the
  • 00:46:38
    junk that's what I did I had a couple
  • 00:46:40
    lose in my portfolio whacked them uh I
  • 00:46:43
    would also say that if you are a person
  • 00:46:47
    and there are lots of them that have
  • 00:46:49
    been holding cash or too much bonds and
  • 00:46:51
    for good reason right 5% is Juicy and
  • 00:46:54
    you've been uh annoyed that you you
  • 00:46:56
    missed the in 24 or some of it if we do
  • 00:46:59
    get a real correction and if Nvidia is a
  • 00:47:01
    show and if you have the
  • 00:47:03
    opportunity to buy lower prices make
  • 00:47:04
    sure you get ready to deploy money so
  • 00:47:06
    okay I also wanted to show this is my
  • 00:47:09
    setep IRA this is definitely definitely
  • 00:47:11
    definitely not investment advice but I
  • 00:47:12
    cleaned it up I've Got No Junk in here
  • 00:47:14
    so chart on this is my current
  • 00:47:16
    allocation got some blue chippers what
  • 00:47:18
    is this two four six8 11 Holdings uh I
  • 00:47:21
    add what's that I'm proud of you thank
  • 00:47:24
    you I added to a few of them today uh
  • 00:47:27
    one of the ones that I added to was
  • 00:47:29
    Blackstone Chon so Blackstone is in a
  • 00:47:32
    really healthy long-term uptrend this is
  • 00:47:34
    the dominant dominant uh alternative
  • 00:47:36
    asset manager that is in a is in a
  • 00:47:39
    secular uptrend and buyers have stepped
  • 00:47:41
    in in the past of the 200 day they did
  • 00:47:43
    again today we have a we have a a longer
  • 00:47:45
    view this is the 40we moving average
  • 00:47:47
    again the 200 day so this was this was
  • 00:47:50
    resistance back in 23s you saw it bumped
  • 00:47:52
    up and failed a few times and it turned
  • 00:47:54
    into support and God willing love this I
  • 00:47:57
    love this chart hopefully it's do that
  • 00:47:59
    today so look at that false break that
  • 00:48:01
    false breakdown the wick of that candle
  • 00:48:03
    went through it and then uh and then it
  • 00:48:05
    bounced a little right so uh 20% haircut
  • 00:48:09
    in one of in a dominant name I like it
  • 00:48:11
    I'm in I added it I got stopped out of
  • 00:48:13
    Home Depot and they had an awesome see
  • 00:48:16
    this is a really great example so I was
  • 00:48:18
    using a moving average trailing the
  • 00:48:20
    stock um I I got stopped out at 401 it
  • 00:48:25
    fell immediately to 36
  • 00:48:27
    genius um and then it had great like
  • 00:48:30
    like a great earnings reaction great
  • 00:48:31
    earning reac had a great earnings
  • 00:48:34
    reaction today one of the few green
  • 00:48:36
    stocks on the screen and it absolutely
  • 00:48:38
    ripped but it still didn't get back to
  • 00:48:39
    where I was stopped out and like it it's
  • 00:48:42
    almost look I like the stock but I have
  • 00:48:45
    to let it set back up again I bought it
  • 00:48:46
    for a breakout the breakout failed my
  • 00:48:49
    stop worked I regretted it the minute I
  • 00:48:51
    sold it of course but I took the
  • 00:48:53
    decision out of my hands I sold it at a
  • 00:48:55
    logical uh place I limited my my risk
  • 00:48:59
    substantially and then I didn't take
  • 00:49:01
    that ride down to 360 and then I see it
  • 00:49:04
    ripping today and it's like I it's not
  • 00:49:06
    even back to where I was stopped out and
  • 00:49:09
    that and that you know that's like a
  • 00:49:10
    very isn't that like one of the most
  • 00:49:12
    gratifying feelings when you know when
  • 00:49:14
    you know you made a good sale that's
  • 00:49:15
    great that's great it's for me that's
  • 00:49:17
    like one of the that's one of the best
  • 00:49:19
    you know what I think I think having a
  • 00:49:21
    process even if it's imperfect because
  • 00:49:23
    of course they all are imperfect
  • 00:49:24
    nothing's perfect but like I think a lot
  • 00:49:25
    of people get stuck with with a winner a
  • 00:49:27
    loser and they're just like they get
  • 00:49:29
    paralyzed yeah they're afraid to sell um
  • 00:49:31
    Starbucks you own I own that stock I
  • 00:49:34
    said on TV today it's the best chart uh
  • 00:49:37
    it's on my best stocks in the market
  • 00:49:38
    list it's the best chart right now I
  • 00:49:40
    don't know why honestly I I kind of want
  • 00:49:41
    to sell it but I don't want to like sell
  • 00:49:42
    to it early but I don't know why I don't
  • 00:49:44
    know why it's doing this there's an
  • 00:49:46
    impending Catalyst where they're going
  • 00:49:47
    to sell a gigantic stake in Starbucks
  • 00:49:49
    China to a Chinese operator China is one
  • 00:49:53
    of the biggest problems with Starbucks
  • 00:49:55
    declining sales 6 qu in a row or
  • 00:49:57
    something like that there better be a c
  • 00:49:58
    impendent Catalyst because this is
  • 00:49:59
    discounting a lot of good news um I
  • 00:50:02
    think there's a lot of trust in uh
  • 00:50:04
    Nicholls
  • 00:50:06
    yeah and uh I like they had a horrible
  • 00:50:09
    quarter this last quarter yeah not good
  • 00:50:10
    I think but I
  • 00:50:12
    think I think they kitchen syn the
  • 00:50:14
    quarter yeah and uh they they cleared
  • 00:50:16
    the runway for and the Stock's been W
  • 00:50:19
    the you're right the fundamentals had
  • 00:50:20
    not turned at all the only thing that's
  • 00:50:22
    turned is a sentiment and it's turned
  • 00:50:24
    hard and and and maybe to maybe too soon
  • 00:50:27
    all right we don't know give me a
  • 00:50:29
    mystery
  • 00:50:31
    chart on screen please
  • 00:50:34
    okay say no more we talked at the top of
  • 00:50:37
    the show about I don't think we use the
  • 00:50:39
    term defensives we said
  • 00:50:40
    Staples this is a staple to me but it's
  • 00:50:43
    not in the Staples index I just consider
  • 00:50:46
    it a staple I really like the technical
  • 00:50:49
    setup here and I I uh I think there's a
  • 00:50:52
    breakout coming in this name um it's
  • 00:50:55
    food related this is why I consider it
  • 00:50:57
    to be a
  • 00:50:59
    staple it's food Rel oh is this Shake
  • 00:51:02
    Shack no okay I'm listen to me it's not
  • 00:51:05
    it's I'm saying it's like it's I think
  • 00:51:07
    in my opinion this has defensive
  • 00:51:09
    characteristics okay so it's food
  • 00:51:10
    related oh I know what it is is this
  • 00:51:12
    McDonald's as discretionary but should
  • 00:51:14
    be a St bang thank
  • 00:51:16
    you yeah look at you thank you I wanted
  • 00:51:20
    you to get it thank you that was good
  • 00:51:22
    you know what this should be a staple
  • 00:51:23
    come on if this isn't a staple yeah it
  • 00:51:24
    looks great you see it we tra you see
  • 00:51:28
    this consolidation period going back to
  • 00:51:29
    October I love it it's yeah it's alltime
  • 00:51:31
    high is coming I think it's going to I
  • 00:51:33
    think it's going to break through I
  • 00:51:35
    don't know what the catalyst is there I
  • 00:51:37
    just know that when people get concerned
  • 00:51:39
    about the economy they know that this
  • 00:51:42
    company will be fine always fine it
  • 00:51:44
    looks great so um I like I like what's
  • 00:51:46
    happening there they've supposedly and I
  • 00:51:49
    don't follow the fundamentals in this as
  • 00:51:51
    closely as I should to be commenting on
  • 00:51:52
    it but um supposedly they have done a
  • 00:51:55
    really good job uh managing the egg
  • 00:51:58
    crisis with the breakfast stuff and the
  • 00:52:00
    Egg McMuffin and they're getting prices
  • 00:52:02
    down and um they're hyper focused on not
  • 00:52:06
    destroying the the consumer any further
  • 00:52:09
    and um if they can pull that off and
  • 00:52:11
    they can sell that story the consumers
  • 00:52:13
    will continue to come and I think the
  • 00:52:14
    stock will work so that's a narrative
  • 00:52:16
    following price kudos to you all right
  • 00:52:18
    guys this has just been an amazing um an
  • 00:52:20
    amazing show we we monitor the comments
  • 00:52:23
    you guys are hilarious we uh we love all
  • 00:52:26
    your comments so thank you so much for
  • 00:52:27
    those of you who came to the live um
  • 00:52:30
    special thanks to the crew Duncan Daniel
  • 00:52:33
    John they're behind the scenes we do
  • 00:52:35
    this Nicole uh Rob Graham everybody who
  • 00:52:38
    works on the show Sean and Matt crushed
  • 00:52:40
    it with the data and the charts we
  • 00:52:42
    appreciate you guys uh that's it from us
  • 00:52:44
    tonight and remember tomorrow's
  • 00:52:46
    Wednesday all new edition of animal
  • 00:52:49
    spirits with Michael and Ben and we'll
  • 00:52:51
    see you guys at the end of the week with
  • 00:52:52
    a brand new the compound of friends keep
  • 00:52:55
    it locked see you soon
  • 00:52:59
    [Music]
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