00:00:00
did we finally hit a bottom here did the
00:00:01
market bottom out with only one green
00:00:04
day in the last eight trading days we
00:00:06
are sitting at the 200 day moving
00:00:08
average in Bull markets the market does
00:00:10
not visit this level often as a matter
00:00:12
of fact all of 2024 we did not visit
00:00:15
this level once and if you watch my last
00:00:17
video I told you we're likely to hit
00:00:19
this level next because of the data that
00:00:21
simply says every single time the market
00:00:23
does not hit the 200 day it follows up
00:00:25
the next year hitting the 200 day 100%
00:00:28
guaranteed so is this the bottom here as
00:00:31
always I'm going to answer that question
00:00:32
as best as I can I've LED you guys
00:00:34
through the whole way told you that my
00:00:36
level for Tesla was 275 my level for
00:00:38
Bitcoin was under 80k I told you guys
00:00:41
that I don't think that the sell-off is
00:00:43
over when everybody was saying that this
00:00:45
is just a short-term pullback I told you
00:00:47
that I thought both the NASDAQ and the
00:00:49
S&P 500 would hit would hit the 200 day
00:00:51
moving average so I'm really doing my
00:00:54
best and it is the most honest analysis
00:00:57
you'll find there is no fearmongering
00:00:59
there's no other intention behind it
00:01:01
except for to give you what I see in the
00:01:03
market and so far it is done really well
00:01:06
and I do have something personal to
00:01:07
comment about but I'm going to leave it
00:01:09
until the end of the video so let's get
00:01:11
right into it as I told you before the
00:01:13
White House is giving you the blueprint
00:01:16
they are telling you what they are going
00:01:17
to do I don't know how many times I have
00:01:20
to say this but you know everyone
00:01:22
talking about is this the bottom for
00:01:23
stocks this is the bottom for stocks the
00:01:25
White House is telling you they do not
00:01:27
give a crap about stocks how many times
00:01:30
do Trump and bessent have to mention
00:01:32
yields before you realize that that's
00:01:34
all they are focused on right now so I
00:01:36
gave a a few examples of recently when
00:01:39
they've done this bessent said in 6 to
00:01:42
12 months this will become Trump's
00:01:44
economy he said the housing market is
00:01:45
stuck now but will unfreeze in weeks
00:01:48
meaning he expects the tenure to come
00:01:50
down he also said that the treasury
00:01:53
anticipates maintaining Bond issuance so
00:01:55
when you overload the market with bonds
00:01:58
then yields go up when you limit the
00:02:00
supply Bonds in the market then Bond
00:02:03
Traders and bond investors will rush to
00:02:05
grab those bonds lowering the yield he
00:02:07
even said about him and Trump he and I
00:02:10
are focused on the 10-year Treasury and
00:02:13
what is the yield of that he didn't say
00:02:15
we are focused on the S&P 500 he said we
00:02:19
are focused on the 10-year Treasury and
00:02:21
then just today he said something new
00:02:23
this is what he said I I think o over
00:02:26
the the medium term which is what we're
00:02:28
focused on it's it's a focus on Main
00:02:30
Street wall Street's done Great Wall
00:02:33
Street can continue to do fine uh but we
00:02:37
have a focus on small business and the
00:02:40
consumers so we are going to rebalance
00:02:42
the economy we're going to bring
00:02:44
manufacturing jobs home so he said we
00:02:46
are focused on Main Street not Wall
00:02:49
Street even though in my view that is
00:02:51
kind of a a pretty stupid way to put it
00:02:53
because obviously Main Street owns a lot
00:02:56
of stocks so a lot of people including
00:02:59
viewers of this content are really
00:03:01
worried about their portfolios obviously
00:03:03
their Investments their IAS it's not
00:03:06
like you know Main Street doesn't own
00:03:08
any stocks either way they are giving
00:03:10
you the blueprint telling you that
00:03:11
there's going to be pain ahead they're
00:03:14
telling you this we've never really had
00:03:17
a an Administration I'll give them this
00:03:19
that is that honest about where their
00:03:21
focus is currently but they're clearly
00:03:23
trying to lower yields and they know
00:03:26
that the end result is going to be that
00:03:28
the market is dropping right they it's
00:03:30
not like they want the market to tank
00:03:32
they really want yields to tank but they
00:03:34
know the result of that is that the
00:03:36
market will also drop because everything
00:03:38
that you do to lower yields slows growth
00:03:41
The Cutting of jobs The Cutting of
00:03:42
spending but their hope is that then
00:03:45
after the pain and the yields get
00:03:46
lowered they're hoping that the FED will
00:03:49
then cut rates because the economy will
00:03:51
be in a worse shape and then they're
00:03:53
hoping to reset that and start a whole
00:03:55
new decade of growth so here's what I
00:03:58
wrote today in the morning I said the
00:04:00
The Q's finally hit a correction NASDAQ
00:04:02
did hit a correction of minus 10% the
00:04:04
spies is at the 200 day moving average
00:04:06
which also coincides with the election
00:04:09
candle I'll tell you what that is in a
00:04:11
second there's Divergence between the
00:04:12
price and the RSI this is the most
00:04:14
important thing here I said a technical
00:04:16
bounce is likely coming along with a
00:04:18
potential Trump put now this is very
00:04:21
vital so I'm going to take a a second
00:04:24
and explain it real quick because I
00:04:26
obviously got a ton of questions on you
00:04:29
know what does does a trump put mean
00:04:30
when we talk about a trump put or the
00:04:32
fed put a put obviously comes from the
00:04:35
the word put option right and a put
00:04:37
option is a kind of an insurance that
00:04:40
you buy in case you have a draw down in
00:04:43
the market right in case the market
00:04:45
turns down you have puts you protect
00:04:47
your investment by buying protective
00:04:49
puts so that's where that word comes
00:04:50
from even though it's kind of uh awkward
00:04:53
phrasing because it makes it seem like
00:04:54
Trump is Trump put means it's bearish
00:04:57
for the market but in this case it means
00:04:59
it's bullish for the market so in my
00:05:02
view I this is this was my theory and if
00:05:05
you don't believe me here's here's the
00:05:07
actual alert that I sent out in the
00:05:09
Discord timestamped you can see here
00:05:10
this is this morning at 8:47 a.m. West
00:05:14
Coast time which is 11:47 a.m. East
00:05:16
Coast time I said I bought the Spy 575
00:05:20
call and by the way we made 40% on those
00:05:23
calls and I ended up closing them like I
00:05:25
said before the end of the day but I
00:05:27
said the Spy was hitting the 200 day
00:05:29
moving average which okay but here's
00:05:31
what I said furthermore this is
00:05:32
speculative on my part but I think we
00:05:34
see some so some softening talk from the
00:05:38
administration today because if we F if
00:05:40
we fell below the election level it'll
00:05:43
be perceived as this administration's
00:05:45
fault now what am I talking about here
00:05:48
and how did I know that one I've been
00:05:49
around the markets a long time two we've
00:05:52
already lived through Trump's Market in
00:05:54
2016 to 2020 so this right here is the
00:05:58
election candle November 5th right so in
00:06:02
my view once we started getting down
00:06:04
there Not only was this 200 day this was
00:06:06
the election candle this is when Trump
00:06:09
was elected so if the market starts
00:06:11
falling heavily below this and I still
00:06:14
think it will in in the midterm right
00:06:17
but in the short term I think we'll
00:06:19
bounce if if the Mark if the market fell
00:06:22
significantly below this then it'll be
00:06:24
perceived as Trump's fault because this
00:06:26
is when Trump got elected now we already
00:06:29
saw this Playbook not in 2016 to 2020 we
00:06:33
saw this Playbook this year so if you
00:06:35
guys remember I don't know it seems like
00:06:36
ancient history now but there was the
00:06:39
beginning of February was Monday where
00:06:41
the market absolutely tanked we gapped
00:06:44
down and then we saw a bunch of buying
00:06:47
to end the day and then this created a
00:06:48
little mini rally taking us to all-time
00:06:51
highs by the second week or third week
00:06:54
of February it was a 3% gap down and the
00:06:57
S&P fell from 6,115
00:07:00
to
00:07:00
5925 over a combined 4 hours of trading
00:07:04
so what happened next it says Trump
00:07:06
deferred the terorists for a month if
00:07:08
you guys remember there were the tariffs
00:07:10
that were supposed to uh happen soon and
00:07:12
then they got pushed to April 2nd so
00:07:15
they came out and they deferred the
00:07:16
tariffs for a month and the market
00:07:18
bounced back to over 6,000 recovering
00:07:21
fully a few sessions later so although
00:07:24
they are focused on yields and they're
00:07:26
doing a really good job of dropping the
00:07:27
10 yield I must the 10 year yield I must
00:07:30
say which is why we went long bonds and
00:07:32
that investment is doing really well if
00:07:35
you look at the if you look at TLT over
00:07:38
QQQ you can see that this is up 133% TLT
00:07:42
is up 133% over QQQ this year a much
00:07:46
more Superior investment so far 133% is
00:07:49
how much you hope to make in a year in
00:07:51
the S&P 500 and I I said and I firmly
00:07:54
believed that Bonds were a better
00:07:56
investment at least for the time being
00:07:58
until the Administration says that their
00:08:01
focus is no longer on the yields
00:08:03
remember they're being very transparent
00:08:05
they're telling us this so I thought
00:08:07
that this was a another level where the
00:08:10
Trump Administration is going to look at
00:08:12
this and say man we better release some
00:08:15
good news lo and behold Commerce
00:08:17
Secretary lutnick here's what he had to
00:08:19
say today because you know he's very
00:08:20
very fair and very reasonable so I think
00:08:23
he's going to work something out with
00:08:25
them it's not going to be a pause none
00:08:26
of that pause stuff but I think he's
00:08:29
going to figure out you do more and I'll
00:08:31
meet you in the middle someway and we're
00:08:33
going to probably be announcing that
00:08:34
tomorrow so somewhere did you hear what
00:08:36
he said we're going to probably be
00:08:38
announcing that tomorrow some sort of
00:08:39
deal with the tariffs now the question
00:08:42
is how long does this last so the last
00:08:46
Trump put that I mentioned on February
00:08:48
3rd it lasted about two weeks and took
00:08:50
us to all-time high so hitting the 200
00:08:53
day moving average if the news obviously
00:08:55
I don't work for the administration if
00:08:57
the news is significant and it is as a
00:09:00
matter of fact a deal and not something
00:09:02
that you know Trump doesn't come back
00:09:04
and and double down which I personally
00:09:06
at least for the very very short term
00:09:08
don't think that's the case I think we
00:09:10
see a bounce back up to at least the 100
00:09:13
day moving average if not a test of this
00:09:16
Gap right here on the S&P 500 which is
00:09:18
right around 6,000 between 6,000 and
00:09:21
6100 let's call it that now
00:09:23
unfortunately this isn't the only news
00:09:25
we have we also have a major
00:09:27
unemployment news this week but this
00:09:28
could actually help so if unemployment
00:09:31
comes in as expected and it's not higher
00:09:34
than expected that might just boost the
00:09:37
confidence a little bit and show that
00:09:40
hey okay we're not in deep Waters yet
00:09:42
maybe there's a a little bit of relief
00:09:44
here now if it comes in higher than
00:09:47
expected then I think bonds are going to
00:09:49
go through the roof meaning yields will
00:09:51
come down and that Bond trade that we're
00:09:53
in is going to go through the roof
00:09:55
because if unemployment is higher than
00:09:57
expected that means that the fed is
00:10:00
likely going to need to cut and cut soon
00:10:02
and that's exactly what bessent and
00:10:04
Trump want they want to address yields
00:10:07
first so as I told you guys I think it's
00:10:10
time to be very selective here there are
00:10:12
some really cheap stocks now uh cheap
00:10:15
relative to themselves as well as
00:10:17
relative to the market so if you look at
00:10:19
Google's valuation it hasn't been this
00:10:20
cheap in a very long time trading at 20p
00:10:24
18 forward earnings even though I think
00:10:27
there is a little bit more to drop on
00:10:28
the semis it's kind of hard to pass up
00:10:30
Nvidia at 26 forward earnings and ever
00:10:33
since I've ever started investing I've
00:10:35
always made a habit of buying
00:10:37
Corrections on the indices so I got a
00:10:39
lot of questions last video why don't
00:10:41
you why aren't you buying the Spy but
00:10:43
you're looking at individual stocks well
00:10:45
because the Spy is not in a correction
00:10:48
the the NASDAQ just hit a correction
00:10:50
today as of the time of this recording
00:10:52
and if you bought the NASDAQ or the S&P
00:10:55
500 down 10% you made money every single
00:10:59
time time I still like healthcare here
00:11:01
XLV is the healthcare sector of the S&P
00:11:04
500 it's not that it's impervious to
00:11:06
drops but it typically drops a lot less
00:11:09
than than other stocks during
00:11:11
Corrections and bare markets because
00:11:13
obviously it is uh a a staple industry
00:11:17
if we get back to that 106 level I'm
00:11:19
looking to short AMD back down to get
00:11:23
below this I think AMD is going to go to
00:11:25
the uh to the double digits also ended
00:11:27
up shorting volatility because this is
00:11:30
one of the easiest plays in the market
00:11:32
is when volatility spikes and you don't
00:11:35
have any more news for the day like we
00:11:37
didn't have on Tuesday and the market is
00:11:39
at a major moving average like the 200
00:11:42
day usually you will see a crush in
00:11:45
volatility as the market finds support
00:11:47
and there's no other news so just a tip
00:11:50
for you there and I still think the
00:11:51
biggest fear in the markets is the
00:11:54
semiconductor index breaking down this
00:11:56
is likely what is going to drive a lot
00:12:00
of pain in the next correction if we get
00:12:02
there so even though I think we're going
00:12:03
to get a short-term bounce here because
00:12:05
of the Trump put and because of the fact
00:12:08
that we're at a very technical level I
00:12:10
think this eventually turns into a
00:12:12
correction not just a pullback we
00:12:14
average a correction every 1 to two
00:12:16
years and if you look at this you can
00:12:18
see that the typical duration of the
00:12:20
correction is 3 to 4 months so people
00:12:25
think that it's going to be just a very
00:12:27
quick down and up but as I said before
00:12:30
2018 was anything but we will get a
00:12:34
period where all of the Tariff stuff is
00:12:37
is sort of priced in maybe in Q2 where
00:12:39
we get a a nice rally but I still think
00:12:43
that we are going to get at least a 10%
00:12:46
drop in the S&P 500 this year and I
00:12:49
still think out of all of the plays that
00:12:52
bonds are the play until the Trump
00:12:55
Administration tells us that they are no
00:12:58
longer the play they told us it was the
00:13:00
play they gave you the Playbook if you
00:13:02
want all of my plays in real time sign
00:13:03
up below trade live with me every single
00:13:06
day I go live at Market open give you
00:13:08
guys the blueprint what I'm looking at
00:13:10
sometimes take a a day trade on the call
00:13:13
in and of itself as well but you also
00:13:15
get access to all of my swings such as
00:13:18
the volatility Crush plays the Spy calls
00:13:21
or puts or whatever it is that I'm doing
00:13:24
including the long-term stuff the
00:13:26
long-term Outlook you get that in real
00:13:28
time as well and any swing trades that I
00:13:31
take as well as option selling so join
00:13:34
below if you want to get all my insights
00:13:36
in real time let me know in the comment
00:13:38
section below do you think that that
00:13:40
we're going to get a short-lived rally
00:13:41
do you think this is the bottom for good
00:13:43
would love to hear from you do you think
00:13:45
we're going to get a correction or not
00:13:47
also uh just to address something that I
00:13:49
said I was going to address at the end
00:13:51
it's so funny how most of you guys are
00:13:54
are cool right most most of you guys
00:13:56
appreciate the analysis because you know
00:13:58
that it's coming from
00:14:01
100% it's it's objective right at least
00:14:04
it's objective in my mind it's not I'm
00:14:06
not it's not off emotion it's not it's
00:14:08
just off of the way that I'm reading the
00:14:09
market and the data so like I I get a
00:14:12
few comments of people saying oh but I
00:14:14
saw a video two months ago where you
00:14:17
said Nvidia was a goodbye okay one there
00:14:21
has to be a distinction between a
00:14:24
short-term play and a long-term play if
00:14:26
I say I'm buying calls here's where I'm
00:14:28
exiting
00:14:29
if for takeprofit here's where where I'm
00:14:32
exiting if the trade doesn't work out
00:14:34
like I I even give you guys free
00:14:36
short-term plays on on these videos
00:14:38
right that is very different than a
00:14:41
long-term play now if you tell me do you
00:14:43
still believe in Nvidia long-term yes of
00:14:46
course but obviously the economic
00:14:49
political and financial situation is
00:14:51
ever changing right so my view on where
00:14:56
the market is at a certain point is
00:14:58
going to change so I hope that you guys
00:15:01
that are maybe confused appreciate that
00:15:04
the analysis has to be up to dat and has
00:15:07
to be robust otherwise I just turn into
00:15:09
one of these YouTubers who was like bye
00:15:11
bye bye I don't care if it's going down
00:15:13
buy Nvidia you're down 30% buy more
00:15:16
you're down 50% buy more you're down 60%
00:15:19
like it just becomes a clown show it's
00:15:21
not a a show that is based in real
00:15:24
analysis giving you guys as valuable of
00:15:27
information as I can in as real of a
00:15:30
time as I can when I have the time to
00:15:32
make these videos so you know I I can
00:15:35
appreciate how maybe the thumbnails
00:15:38
might might look uh enticing to to some
00:15:41
viewers but I I I think that a lot of
00:15:43
people that are that are
00:15:44
judging you know whether two months ago
00:15:48
I sent out an options trade on Nvidia
00:15:50
and now I'm saying Nvidia might go to
00:15:53
100 or Tesla might go to 270 like these
00:15:56
are two different things right one might
00:15:59
be a short-term play one might be a
00:16:01
long-term analysis and what I'm giving
00:16:04
you right now is my up-to-date view on
00:16:06
the market in these everchanging factors
00:16:10
in a very robust landscape that is not
00:16:12
for the faint of heart and my aim is
00:16:15
just to guide you through as best as I
00:16:17
can so you're not reacting to every
00:16:19
candle like a madman or mad woman
00:16:22
although it's usually the men but um
00:16:24
anyway I just wanted to clear that up uh
00:16:27
yeah let me know in the comment section
00:16:29
below sign up if you want to trade live
00:16:30
with me every single day subscribe to
00:16:33
the channel hit that notification Bell
00:16:34
stay safe out there Traders peace
