The REAL COST of War with Iran - What It Means for YOU | Networth and Chill with Your Rich BFF

00:23:56
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HVSESpbYX4U

Resumo

TLDRIn this episode of 'Net Worth and Chill', host Vivian discusses the potential economic consequences of escalating tensions with Iran, particularly focusing on the impact on oil and gas prices. She explains how military interventions can lead to increased costs for consumers and the government, emphasizing the importance of understanding these dynamics in relation to personal finance. The episode covers historical military spending, the implications for the U.S. economy, and offers financial advice for individuals during uncertain times. Vivian highlights the interconnectedness of geopolitical events and everyday financial realities, urging listeners to be prepared for potential economic shifts.

Conclusões

  • 💰 Increased oil prices can lead to higher costs for consumers.
  • 📈 Military interventions often result in significant government spending.
  • ⚖️ The U.S. is currently $36.1 trillion in debt.
  • 🚧 Resources diverted to military spending could improve infrastructure.
  • 📉 War can strain supply chains and create market uncertainty.
  • 🛡️ Defense contractors are likely to profit from military actions.
  • 💵 The government funds wars through taxes, borrowing, and money creation.
  • 📊 Maintaining an emergency fund is crucial during economic uncertainty.
  • 🌍 Oil and gas prices affect the cost of nearly everything.
  • 📉 Long-term economic effects of war can be negative.

Linha do tempo

  • 00:00:00 - 00:05:00

    The episode discusses the potential economic impacts of escalating tensions with Iran, particularly focusing on the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global oil and gas supplies. Increased military intervention could lead to higher oil prices, affecting not just transportation costs but the prices of goods and services across the board, emphasizing that everyone will feel the impact, regardless of their direct use of oil.

  • 00:05:00 - 00:10:00

    The host provides a timeline of recent military actions, including US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites and Iran's retaliation. The current situation is described as a tense ceasefire, with both sides showing willingness to respect it. The episode aims to explain how geopolitical tensions translate into economic consequences, particularly regarding oil prices and the broader economic outlook for the US.

  • 00:10:00 - 00:15:00

    The discussion shifts to the financial burden of war, highlighting the US's significant national debt and the historical costs of military engagements. The host outlines how wars are funded, including tax increases, borrowing, and money creation, all of which can lead to inflation. The episode stresses that while war can stimulate certain sectors, the long-term economic effects are often negative, diverting resources from essential services and infrastructure.

  • 00:15:00 - 00:23:56

    In the Q&A section, the host addresses various audience questions about the implications of war on social services, investment strategies during uncertainty, and the potential for government borrowing. The episode concludes with a reminder of the importance of being financially prepared for economic fluctuations, reinforcing the idea that while military spending is significant, investing in domestic needs could yield better long-term benefits.

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Vídeo de perguntas e respostas

  • What happens if tensions escalate with Iran?

    If tensions escalate, oil and gas prices may rise significantly, affecting the cost of goods and services globally.

  • How does military intervention impact the economy?

    Military intervention can lead to increased government spending, which may stimulate certain sectors but often results in long-term economic burdens.

  • What are the costs associated with military actions?

    Military actions are extremely costly, with historical spending on wars in Iraq and Afghanistan reaching trillions of dollars.

  • How does war affect consumer prices?

    Increased oil prices due to conflict can lead to higher prices for transportation and goods, impacting consumers directly.

  • What should individuals do financially during times of uncertainty?

    Maintain a defensive financial strategy, keep investing, and ensure you have an emergency fund.

  • Who profits from military spending?

    Defense contractors and companies providing goods and services to the military often profit from increased military spending.

  • How does the government fund military actions?

    The government may increase taxes, reduce non-military spending, borrow money, or print more currency to fund military actions.

  • Are savings safe during times of war?

    While the government cannot directly take your savings, increased taxes and inflation can diminish your purchasing power.

  • What is the impact of war on infrastructure spending?

    Resources diverted to military spending could have been used for infrastructure, education, and healthcare improvements.

  • What is the long-term economic impact of war?

    While short-term spending may stimulate certain sectors, the long-term effects often include increased national debt and opportunity costs.

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  • 00:00:00
    If tensions escalate with Iran, what
  • 00:00:02
    happens? Your gas and oil might get way
  • 00:00:04
    more expensive. The world's most
  • 00:00:06
    strategically important waterways, the
  • 00:00:08
    strait of Hormuz, it's partially
  • 00:00:10
    controlled by Iran. And maybe you're
  • 00:00:12
    thinking, "Who cares? I don't even have
  • 00:00:14
    a car. This won't affect me." Wrong. If
  • 00:00:16
    oil and gas prices go up, the price of
  • 00:00:18
    everything is going up.
  • 00:00:28
    What's up, rich friends? Welcome back to
  • 00:00:29
    another episode of Net Worth and Chill.
  • 00:00:32
    I'm your host Vivian 2 aka your rich BFF
  • 00:00:34
    and your favorite Wall Street girly. If
  • 00:00:37
    you've watched the news or been on the
  • 00:00:38
    internet in the past week, you've
  • 00:00:40
    probably heard the words war and Middle
  • 00:00:42
    East all over. I think it's pretty
  • 00:00:44
    obvious that the impetus for this
  • 00:00:46
    episode was the fact that we were once
  • 00:00:48
    again getting into a dicey position with
  • 00:00:51
    military intervention with the Middle
  • 00:00:53
    East. However, I want to say that this
  • 00:00:56
    is an episode that really applies to any
  • 00:00:59
    past war and or any future wars that may
  • 00:01:02
    occur because the financials and the
  • 00:01:05
    ways that you can still be smart with
  • 00:01:07
    your money are going to stay the same.
  • 00:01:09
    Last weekend, the US launched targeted
  • 00:01:11
    strikes at three Iranian nuclear
  • 00:01:13
    development sites at Fordo, Natans, and
  • 00:01:16
    Isvahan. As of this recording, there is
  • 00:01:18
    now a shaky ceasefire and highlevel
  • 00:01:20
    political leaders are trying to come up
  • 00:01:22
    with diplomatic solutions. But here's
  • 00:01:24
    what nobody's breaking down for you. The
  • 00:01:26
    real cost of these operations and what
  • 00:01:29
    they mean for your wallet. Also, since
  • 00:01:31
    today's episode is very news and
  • 00:01:33
    headlineheavy, I want to make sure that
  • 00:01:35
    you know the date in which this is being
  • 00:01:37
    recorded, so it's timestamped. Today is
  • 00:01:39
    Friday, June 27th, so any information
  • 00:01:42
    that comes out after today won't be
  • 00:01:44
    included in this episode, unfortunately.
  • 00:01:47
    But I just want to make sure that you
  • 00:01:48
    know that so you have a full picture of
  • 00:01:50
    what's going on. Here's a quick recap of
  • 00:01:51
    what's been going on and where we're at
  • 00:01:53
    now. On June 22nd, 2025, US B2 bombers
  • 00:01:58
    targeted three Iranian nuclear
  • 00:01:59
    facilities. On June 23rd, 2025, Iran
  • 00:02:03
    retaliated against the US bases in Qatar
  • 00:02:06
    and Iraq. Currently, there is a tense
  • 00:02:09
    ceasefire with potential for escalation.
  • 00:02:11
    Both Israel and Iran have said they'll
  • 00:02:14
    respect the ceasefire if the other does.
  • 00:02:16
    It's kind of like when you and your
  • 00:02:18
    little brother were poking each other in
  • 00:02:19
    the back of the family minivan and you
  • 00:02:22
    said you would stop when he stopped, but
  • 00:02:24
    then we didn't know if anybody was
  • 00:02:26
    actually going to stop. With the rising
  • 00:02:29
    tensions and US military intervention in
  • 00:02:31
    the Middle East, people are now more
  • 00:02:33
    than ever concerned about war and if the
  • 00:02:36
    ceasefire will even hold. Now, I'm not
  • 00:02:38
    here to debate foreign policy or play
  • 00:02:40
    armchair general. That's not my lane.
  • 00:02:42
    And frankly, there are way smarter
  • 00:02:43
    people than me making those calls. But
  • 00:02:45
    what I am here for is to break down
  • 00:02:47
    exactly how geopolitical tensions
  • 00:02:49
    translate into dollars and cents and
  • 00:02:51
    what it means for you and for America's
  • 00:02:54
    economic outlook. So, let's get into it.
  • 00:02:55
    The biggest question on everyone's mind
  • 00:02:57
    is if tensions escalate with Iran, then
  • 00:02:59
    what happens? The biggest and most
  • 00:03:01
    likely economic impact we could see if
  • 00:03:03
    these tensions continue to escalate are
  • 00:03:05
    increased oil and gas prices. Because it
  • 00:03:08
    wouldn't be a US intervention in the
  • 00:03:10
    Middle East without the word oil. But
  • 00:03:12
    why could the US bombing Iran cause an
  • 00:03:15
    increase in oil and gas prices? Because
  • 00:03:17
    of the Strait of Hormuz. The Straight of
  • 00:03:19
    Hormuz is a 21-m wide choke point
  • 00:03:22
    controlling access to the Persian Gulf
  • 00:03:24
    and one of the world's most
  • 00:03:25
    strategically important waterways for
  • 00:03:27
    global energy supplies. It's partially
  • 00:03:30
    controlled by Iran. It's essentially the
  • 00:03:32
    most important oil highway in the world
  • 00:03:34
    with the US Energy Information
  • 00:03:35
    Administration finding that a quarter of
  • 00:03:37
    the world's oil and 20% of the world's
  • 00:03:40
    natural gas all pass through the
  • 00:03:42
    straight. In 2024, Reuters found that
  • 00:03:44
    average daily exports stood at 20.3
  • 00:03:47
    million barrels of crude oil passing
  • 00:03:49
    through the straight. Since roughly 20%
  • 00:03:52
    of global oil has to move through this
  • 00:03:53
    waterway, any blockade would trigger
  • 00:03:56
    worldwide energy price spikes, which
  • 00:03:58
    would literally affect everything. So,
  • 00:04:00
    what does this mean for you? Your gas
  • 00:04:02
    and oil might get way more expensive.
  • 00:04:05
    And maybe you're thinking, "Who cares? I
  • 00:04:07
    don't even have a car. This won't affect
  • 00:04:08
    me." Wrong. You know what else depends
  • 00:04:11
    on oil and gas? Planes, trains, cars,
  • 00:04:14
    buses, and so much more. Were you
  • 00:04:16
    looking forward to traveling this
  • 00:04:17
    upcoming holiday season for Thanksgiving
  • 00:04:19
    or Christmas? Forget about that. With
  • 00:04:22
    increased oil prices, fuel for planes,
  • 00:04:24
    trains, and even cruises are going to
  • 00:04:26
    get more expensive, too, which means you
  • 00:04:28
    can expect those ticket prices to go up
  • 00:04:30
    as well. Here's something else to
  • 00:04:31
    consider, too. AI is now the greatest
  • 00:04:34
    thing since sliced bread, and everyone
  • 00:04:36
    is using it. AI requires a pretty
  • 00:04:38
    significant amount of electricity to
  • 00:04:40
    power it. So where does some of that
  • 00:04:41
    electricity come from? Fossil fuels, aka
  • 00:04:45
    oil and gas. And where does oil have to
  • 00:04:48
    pass through? The straight of hormuz or
  • 00:04:51
    let's take hospitals for instance. A lot
  • 00:04:53
    of hospital backup generator systems are
  • 00:04:55
    dependent on diesel fuel. Ultimately,
  • 00:04:57
    oil powers almost everything. We
  • 00:04:59
    literally use about 20 million barrels
  • 00:05:01
    of oil daily in this country alone
  • 00:05:04
    according to the US Energy Information
  • 00:05:06
    Administration. And that doesn't include
  • 00:05:08
    any of our other global counterparts.
  • 00:05:10
    And we know how much of a global economy
  • 00:05:12
    we have because we're consuming things
  • 00:05:14
    that are made in other countries as
  • 00:05:15
    well. So if oil and gas prices go up,
  • 00:05:18
    the price of everything is going up. If
  • 00:05:20
    tensions are to escalate, we could be
  • 00:05:22
    facing some serious risk to the oil and
  • 00:05:24
    gas industry that'll affect much more
  • 00:05:26
    than just your gas prices. Now, on to
  • 00:05:29
    the question of if we do go to war, how
  • 00:05:32
    much will it cost? Well, let's look at
  • 00:05:33
    history. Aside from being destructive
  • 00:05:35
    and harmful to civilians and decimating
  • 00:05:40
    populations, the one thing we can
  • 00:05:42
    guarantee every single war to be is
  • 00:05:44
    seriously expensive. It's at this point
  • 00:05:47
    in the episode where I feel it's
  • 00:05:49
    important to remind you that according
  • 00:05:50
    to the Department of the Treasury, the
  • 00:05:53
    US is currently $36.1 trillion in debt
  • 00:05:58
    already. The US government is in fact
  • 00:06:01
    the brokest you know. So keep that
  • 00:06:03
    number in your head as we go through
  • 00:06:04
    these facts and figures. When it comes
  • 00:06:06
    to paying for war, we usually do one of
  • 00:06:09
    four things. One, surprise surprise,
  • 00:06:12
    increase taxes. Two, we can reduce
  • 00:06:15
    non-military spending to pay for
  • 00:06:16
    military expenses. Three, the government
  • 00:06:19
    borrows from the public through issuance
  • 00:06:22
    of war bonds or issuance of US Treasury
  • 00:06:24
    securities. So, aka more debt. And four,
  • 00:06:28
    money creation. Basically, we just print
  • 00:06:31
    more money. But we all know what that
  • 00:06:33
    ends up leading to inflation. So, let's
  • 00:06:35
    look at some historical spending on war
  • 00:06:37
    and what our most recent intervention in
  • 00:06:39
    Iran might have cost. According to Brown
  • 00:06:42
    University's Watson Institute for
  • 00:06:44
    International and Public Affairs, the US
  • 00:06:46
    committed over 2.89 trillion to its
  • 00:06:50
    military engagements in Iraq and Syria
  • 00:06:53
    during the 20ear span from 2003 to 2023.
  • 00:06:57
    And this number doesn't even account for
  • 00:06:59
    future obligations for veterans care.
  • 00:07:01
    Additionally, Brown University also
  • 00:07:02
    found that between 2001 and 2019, the US
  • 00:07:06
    spent over $2 trillion on the war in
  • 00:07:08
    Afghanistan. Again, I do in fact keep
  • 00:07:12
    saying trillion with a T. This is some
  • 00:07:16
    really costly spending here. Just
  • 00:07:18
    looking at recent military action, the
  • 00:07:19
    US mission to bomb the Iranian nuclear
  • 00:07:22
    enrichment facilities used B2 stealth
  • 00:07:24
    bombers valued at about $2.1 billion
  • 00:07:27
    each. And sure, they weren't made for
  • 00:07:30
    this purpose, and they'll probably be
  • 00:07:31
    used again, but that's still a ton of
  • 00:07:33
    money and bunker buster bombs worth
  • 00:07:36
    millions. So, this was a pretty costly
  • 00:07:38
    intervention to say the least. While I
  • 00:07:40
    don't have a crystal ball and I can't
  • 00:07:41
    give you an exact number of how much
  • 00:07:43
    this will cost us if we were to have
  • 00:07:45
    further intervention in Iran, it's fair
  • 00:07:47
    to assume if tensions were to escalate,
  • 00:07:49
    we would be spending a pretty penny. You
  • 00:07:51
    might be thinking, "Okay, yes, war is
  • 00:07:53
    expensive, but Vivian, isn't war good
  • 00:07:54
    for the economy?" Contrary to what you
  • 00:07:57
    might have been taught or what you might
  • 00:07:59
    have heard on social media, not all wars
  • 00:08:02
    are going to benefit the economy.
  • 00:08:03
    Short-term economic effects often do
  • 00:08:06
    include increased government spending on
  • 00:08:08
    defense which can stimulate certain
  • 00:08:10
    sectors like manufacturing and
  • 00:08:12
    technology. This can help boost
  • 00:08:14
    employment in some of these defense
  • 00:08:15
    related industries. World War II is a
  • 00:08:18
    great example of this as it helped pull
  • 00:08:20
    us out of the Great Depression. But the
  • 00:08:22
    longer term effects of war can be more
  • 00:08:24
    negative. The Iraq and Afghanistan wars
  • 00:08:26
    cost trillions of dollars funded largely
  • 00:08:28
    through borrowing that increase national
  • 00:08:30
    debt. And as I said previously in this
  • 00:08:33
    episode, we currently have a lot of
  • 00:08:35
    debt. I cannot stress this enough.
  • 00:08:37
    Resources diverted to military spending
  • 00:08:40
    all have an opportunity cost. That is
  • 00:08:43
    money that could have gone to
  • 00:08:45
    infrastructure, education, healthcare,
  • 00:08:48
    or other productive investments that
  • 00:08:50
    could have generated better long-term
  • 00:08:52
    economic returns. We need to ask the
  • 00:08:55
    question, what is the ROI? Return on
  • 00:08:58
    investment. The broader economic
  • 00:09:00
    disruption depends on the war's scope.
  • 00:09:03
    Large conflicts can strain supply
  • 00:09:05
    chains, increase commodity prices, like
  • 00:09:08
    we mentioned, oil, and create market
  • 00:09:11
    uncertainty that affects investment and
  • 00:09:13
    consumer confidence. Essentially, the
  • 00:09:15
    takeaway here is that wars can help
  • 00:09:17
    stimulate the economy and defense
  • 00:09:18
    related industries, but peaceful
  • 00:09:21
    economic development generally offers
  • 00:09:23
    better prospects for sustained, that's
  • 00:09:25
    important, sustained economic prosperity
  • 00:09:28
    in the long run. So, don't plan on a war
  • 00:09:31
    to get us out of any homegrown financial
  • 00:09:34
    issues. Now, outside of the risk of war
  • 00:09:36
    and further military action, just at a
  • 00:09:38
    baseline, the US spends a lot, like a
  • 00:09:41
    lot, a lot on its military. And we can
  • 00:09:44
    probably assume that increased military
  • 00:09:47
    tensions translate into even more
  • 00:09:48
    defense spending. So, what else could
  • 00:09:50
    that money do? And listen, defense
  • 00:09:52
    spending has made us the world's
  • 00:09:54
    superpower. I don't deny that. But it's
  • 00:09:56
    important to understand that there are
  • 00:09:58
    other things that some of that money
  • 00:09:59
    could have gone towards. This isn't to
  • 00:10:02
    say we should stop spending on defense
  • 00:10:03
    entirely because we shouldn't. But it's
  • 00:10:06
    helpful to understand the real numbers
  • 00:10:08
    behind the US military. The US spends
  • 00:10:10
    close to 1 trillion, yes 1 trillion with
  • 00:10:13
    a t dollars per year, which is more than
  • 00:10:16
    what the next nine countries spend on
  • 00:10:19
    defense combined. According to the Peter
  • 00:10:22
    G. Peterson Foundation. The budget that
  • 00:10:24
    flows annually through defense spending
  • 00:10:26
    could alternatively fund transformative
  • 00:10:29
    domestic investments to help improve our
  • 00:10:31
    lives as people who actually live in the
  • 00:10:33
    US.
  • 00:10:34
    The same amount could build miles of new
  • 00:10:37
    highways, construct bridges,
  • 00:10:39
    fundamentally upgrading America's
  • 00:10:41
    crumbling infrastructure. I mean, the
  • 00:10:42
    American Society of Civil Engineers
  • 00:10:44
    gives US infrastructure a C minus grade,
  • 00:10:46
    so we could certainly use an upgrade
  • 00:10:49
    here. In terms of education, the Wharton
  • 00:10:51
    School of Business estimates that just a
  • 00:10:54
    fraction of this funding, 351 billion,
  • 00:10:57
    could provide universal prek programs
  • 00:11:00
    for children for the next 10 years,
  • 00:11:03
    creating long-term economic benefits
  • 00:11:05
    through improved educational outcomes.
  • 00:11:08
    Efforts to reverse climate change could
  • 00:11:10
    receive the massive funding needed for
  • 00:11:11
    the renewable energy transition,
  • 00:11:14
    according to research conducted by Wood
  • 00:11:16
    McKenzie.
  • 00:11:17
    Or we could actually provide meaningful
  • 00:11:20
    and expanded support to our veterans and
  • 00:11:23
    their families rather than slashing
  • 00:11:25
    veterans benefits. I'm looking at you,
  • 00:11:28
    big, beautiful bill. But seriously,
  • 00:11:30
    Brown University estimates that to
  • 00:11:32
    support veterans from post 911 wars,
  • 00:11:34
    it'll cost us between 2.2 and $2.5
  • 00:11:37
    billion by 2050. And let me be clear, we
  • 00:11:41
    should be supporting our veterans. This
  • 00:11:43
    isn't to say we should stop spending on
  • 00:11:45
    defense itself. I just want to
  • 00:11:47
    illustrate how much money we are
  • 00:11:48
    spending on defense and how more
  • 00:11:50
    military action means we'll have to
  • 00:11:52
    continue to spend more as a nation. And
  • 00:11:55
    let's be real, that seems these days to
  • 00:11:57
    be the only thing we're good at.
  • 00:11:58
    Spending, spending, spending. But as
  • 00:12:01
    your rich BFF and your favorite Wall
  • 00:12:03
    Street girly, I got to remind you,
  • 00:12:04
    saving, investing, and preparing for our
  • 00:12:08
    nation's future is also equally as
  • 00:12:10
    important. Now, moving into the Q&A
  • 00:12:13
    portion of today, I asked you guys for
  • 00:12:15
    some of your questions on war and how
  • 00:12:17
    increased actions between the US and
  • 00:12:19
    Iran could translate into actual dollars
  • 00:12:22
    in or out of your wallet for both you
  • 00:12:24
    and for the US as a whole. Hundreds of
  • 00:12:27
    people sent in questions, and while I'm
  • 00:12:29
    going to try to get to as many as
  • 00:12:30
    possible, we obviously don't have time
  • 00:12:32
    for all of them. But for folks who are
  • 00:12:34
    looking for more financial information
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  • 00:12:38
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    data. So, you don't have to be sifting
  • 00:13:11
    through hours and hours of different
  • 00:13:13
    search results and not even sure what
  • 00:13:15
    actually makes sense. So, head to
  • 00:13:18
    askdy.com to sign up. And now, let's get
  • 00:13:21
    into the Q&A section. So our very first
  • 00:13:23
    question, why do we have money for
  • 00:13:25
    endless war but none for social
  • 00:13:27
    services? O starting with a tough one.
  • 00:13:31
    Okay, so I think in part we as a society
  • 00:13:35
    and we as humans have a stronger
  • 00:13:37
    negative emotional reaction to bad
  • 00:13:39
    things happening versus a positive
  • 00:13:42
    emotional reaction to good things
  • 00:13:44
    happening. We are biologically motivated
  • 00:13:47
    by fear. But the idea of incremental
  • 00:13:50
    benefit doesn't necessarily act as a
  • 00:13:53
    strong driver for change or motion.
  • 00:13:56
    Right? So think about it. Money put
  • 00:13:58
    towards defense is in theory protecting
  • 00:14:00
    us from being attacked, keeping us safe
  • 00:14:03
    from harm, and helping us avoid a
  • 00:14:06
    negative thing. However, putting money
  • 00:14:08
    towards public and social services helps
  • 00:14:11
    to improve educational outcomes,
  • 00:14:14
    provides resources to our lesser
  • 00:14:16
    advantaged and helps us to improve upon
  • 00:14:19
    the existing status quo. One of these is
  • 00:14:23
    a very strong motivator and the other
  • 00:14:25
    for many people and many lawmakers is
  • 00:14:27
    not. I'm not saying it's right, but from
  • 00:14:32
    a psychological perspective, the idea of
  • 00:14:35
    a major city being attacked or bombed or
  • 00:14:38
    harmed is a much stronger motivator than
  • 00:14:41
    the idea of a few school kids getting a
  • 00:14:45
    free lunch or having slightly better VA
  • 00:14:48
    benefits or even having community
  • 00:14:50
    centers that can help provide care and
  • 00:14:53
    resources. It's not fair. It's not
  • 00:14:55
    great. Okay, on to question number two.
  • 00:14:58
    What should we do in this scenario? Keep
  • 00:15:00
    cash, buy gold stocks. Is that a thing?
  • 00:15:03
    So, when it comes to periods of
  • 00:15:06
    financial uncertainty, I think it's
  • 00:15:08
    really important that we all adopt a
  • 00:15:10
    defensive financial strategy. First and
  • 00:15:13
    foremost, continue investing. Try to
  • 00:15:16
    continue putting money into your
  • 00:15:18
    investment accounts. Keep buying
  • 00:15:19
    investments that are diversified, um,
  • 00:15:22
    that track the track the broader market.
  • 00:15:24
    Don't pull your money all at once when
  • 00:15:26
    you get scared because you'll lock in
  • 00:15:27
    any sort of losses. But I do encourage
  • 00:15:30
    you to make sure you have a bigger
  • 00:15:32
    emergency fund on hand. Um, normally I
  • 00:15:36
    recommend 3 to 6 months of living
  • 00:15:38
    expenses put into a high savings
  • 00:15:40
    account. However, during times like
  • 00:15:42
    this, if you can get closer to 6 to 12
  • 00:15:44
    months, that puts you in a stronger
  • 00:15:46
    position. Uh, I wouldn't necessarily say
  • 00:15:49
    change anything drastically from your
  • 00:15:51
    financial situation. However, it's just
  • 00:15:54
    an important time to be a little bit
  • 00:15:56
    more wary, a little bit more cautious. I
  • 00:15:58
    wouldn't necessarily make any monstrous
  • 00:16:01
    purchases or big life changes when there
  • 00:16:04
    is this much economic uncertainty. Okay,
  • 00:16:06
    next up question. Who profits?
  • 00:16:09
    Especially what are sectors or places we
  • 00:16:11
    wouldn't think are connected? So, let's
  • 00:16:14
    state the obvious. Our good friends at
  • 00:16:15
    Lheed Martin, Rathon, Boeing, North of
  • 00:16:18
    Grumman, and other defense contractors
  • 00:16:20
    will profit as expected. In the roughly
  • 00:16:22
    $14 trillion that the US spent on wars
  • 00:16:25
    in Afghanistan, Brown University
  • 00:16:27
    estimated that 1/3 to 1 half of that
  • 00:16:29
    money went to defense contractors. I
  • 00:16:32
    mean, just in 2020, Loheed Martin
  • 00:16:34
    received 75 billion in government
  • 00:16:36
    contracts. Um, the usual suspects are
  • 00:16:40
    the ones to largely profit. However,
  • 00:16:42
    anyone or any company specifically could
  • 00:16:45
    receive a government contract. So, for
  • 00:16:46
    example, sometimes,
  • 00:16:49
    you know, packaged food manufacturers
  • 00:16:51
    are producing food to be shipped out to
  • 00:16:53
    the armed forces, they can see increased
  • 00:16:55
    profits from government contracts or
  • 00:16:57
    even people who may be creating
  • 00:16:59
    uniforms. So, clothing retailers that
  • 00:17:01
    create those uniforms, they could be
  • 00:17:03
    seeing increased government contracts.
  • 00:17:04
    Even the vehicle manufacturers, uh,
  • 00:17:07
    transportation, things like that. Um but
  • 00:17:09
    essentially if it can be given a
  • 00:17:11
    government contract to transport
  • 00:17:14
    soldiers, be used for intelligence, um
  • 00:17:18
    necessary for these folks to be doing
  • 00:17:21
    their jobs, you could get a government
  • 00:17:23
    contract and profit from war. Next
  • 00:17:25
    question up, where does the government
  • 00:17:27
    get the funds when we are already
  • 00:17:28
    trillions in deficit? I'm glad this
  • 00:17:30
    person was already stealing from my uh
  • 00:17:33
    crib sheet of, hey guys, we have a lot
  • 00:17:35
    of debt. Um, but like I mentioned
  • 00:17:37
    earlier, there are four main ways that
  • 00:17:39
    we are getting the funds for war. One,
  • 00:17:42
    increasing taxes. This isn't great for
  • 00:17:44
    most of us at home because we probably
  • 00:17:46
    already feel like we pay a lot in taxes.
  • 00:17:48
    Two, the reduction in non-military
  • 00:17:51
    spending to pay for military expenses.
  • 00:17:53
    Again, not great for average everyday
  • 00:17:55
    people because these are likely benefits
  • 00:17:57
    that you may enjoy. things like
  • 00:18:00
    community resources or uh national parks
  • 00:18:05
    or even just maintenance of our highways
  • 00:18:07
    like you're probably going to drive into
  • 00:18:08
    a pothole. Um so, you know, we'll reduce
  • 00:18:11
    non-m non-military spending to pay for
  • 00:18:14
    these military expenditures. Um three,
  • 00:18:17
    you've got government borrowing. They
  • 00:18:18
    really said we don't have enough debt.
  • 00:18:20
    Let's take on more. People are actually
  • 00:18:21
    surprised to find that largely the US
  • 00:18:24
    government is in debt to us the people.
  • 00:18:28
    um because the government will borrow
  • 00:18:29
    from the public through war bonds or
  • 00:18:32
    issuance of US treasuries. So again, a
  • 00:18:35
    lot of this money is us funding our
  • 00:18:39
    government and you know they're also
  • 00:18:41
    getting money from foreign allies which
  • 00:18:43
    are buying our debt. But we have to
  • 00:18:45
    remember this isn't just a gift. This
  • 00:18:47
    isn't you know an interest free loan
  • 00:18:48
    like we have to then pay interest on
  • 00:18:50
    that debt which can in the future become
  • 00:18:53
    a financial burden which it is currently
  • 00:18:55
    becoming. And last but not least, money
  • 00:18:56
    creation. basically just printing more
  • 00:18:58
    money. But again, like I mentioned, this
  • 00:19:01
    does have, you know, side effects,
  • 00:19:04
    negative outcomes that could potentially
  • 00:19:06
    then impact the financial future of your
  • 00:19:09
    children. And unfortunately, often times
  • 00:19:12
    when it comes to large expenses like
  • 00:19:15
    war, we are borrowing from our kids. We
  • 00:19:18
    will be spending money today that our
  • 00:19:20
    kids pay for in the future. Next
  • 00:19:22
    question, how does this impact mortgage
  • 00:19:24
    rates? So less to do specifically with
  • 00:19:28
    like any sort of war, but more to do
  • 00:19:30
    with the interesting position we're in
  • 00:19:33
    right now because of the economic
  • 00:19:35
    uncertainty. Listen, while it's below
  • 00:19:37
    the initial expectations, right now we
  • 00:19:40
    are still at the highest level of
  • 00:19:42
    tariffs the US has had in nearly nine
  • 00:19:45
    decades. And if they stay like this,
  • 00:19:47
    they're going to have an impact on the
  • 00:19:49
    US and global economy. Um, tariff hikes
  • 00:19:51
    typically simultaneously increase the
  • 00:19:53
    probability of an economic slowdown
  • 00:19:55
    while causing prices to typically move
  • 00:19:57
    upward. So, e economy slows down, prices
  • 00:20:00
    move upwards. And as a result, interest
  • 00:20:03
    rates will likely stay higher for longer
  • 00:20:06
    because Fed Daddy Jerome Pal will be
  • 00:20:08
    hesitant to lower rates aggressively
  • 00:20:10
    because he wants to avoid any sort of
  • 00:20:12
    runaway inflation. Right now we have
  • 00:20:14
    inflation relatively under control, but
  • 00:20:16
    you guys remember when it was 8 9%,
  • 00:20:19
    things were crazy. So this is all to say
  • 00:20:21
    mortgage rates, which are based off of
  • 00:20:24
    the Fed funds rate that the Fed sets,
  • 00:20:27
    they may stay higher. They are
  • 00:20:28
    determined in relation to that number.
  • 00:20:30
    When the Fed sets rates, that is the
  • 00:20:33
    cost of borrowing in between banks. And
  • 00:20:35
    then other sort of lending between banks
  • 00:20:37
    and you. So, car loans, mortgage loans,
  • 00:20:40
    personal loans, student loans, all of
  • 00:20:42
    that is based off of that number and you
  • 00:20:45
    typically pay a little bit more than
  • 00:20:46
    what that rate is set by the Fed. Um, so
  • 00:20:50
    mortgage rates might stay a little bit
  • 00:20:52
    higher for a little bit longer. Next
  • 00:20:53
    question. Please tell us how much it
  • 00:20:56
    costs to drop these bombs and equate to
  • 00:20:58
    Doge cuts. Doge claimed they were able
  • 00:21:01
    to save the government about $ 160
  • 00:21:03
    billion, but that's debatable as
  • 00:21:05
    nonpartisan research groups have found
  • 00:21:07
    that Doge could actually be costing
  • 00:21:09
    taxpayers 135 billion. So just one B2
  • 00:21:13
    stealth bomber costs about 2.1 billion
  • 00:21:15
    to create and we utilized seven of them.
  • 00:21:18
    Listen, these these B2 fighter like
  • 00:21:22
    planes aren't only used for this one
  • 00:21:25
    mission. So, I don't want to necessarily
  • 00:21:27
    equate it as like we made these planes
  • 00:21:29
    for this moment, but Doge basically
  • 00:21:33
    didn't do that much in terms of our
  • 00:21:36
    country's bottom line. The savings that
  • 00:21:39
    they were able to squeeze out actually
  • 00:21:42
    likely were eaten up by all of the
  • 00:21:46
    incremental charges that they ran into.
  • 00:21:49
    So, I would just say that I feel like
  • 00:21:51
    Doge was a very poorly executed exercise
  • 00:21:55
    with a bad mission statement, a bad
  • 00:21:58
    thesis and even worse, you know, actual
  • 00:22:02
    implementation. All right, next
  • 00:22:03
    question. Are my savings safe in times
  • 00:22:05
    of war, or can the country just take
  • 00:22:07
    money from us to cover the cost of it?
  • 00:22:10
    So, the government can't directly take
  • 00:22:12
    or freeze your assets just willy-nilly.
  • 00:22:15
    um they can't just like show up at your
  • 00:22:17
    bank and be like, "Money, please." Um
  • 00:22:19
    there are instances when your bank
  • 00:22:21
    accounts can be frozen, but typically
  • 00:22:23
    you have to commit a financial crime and
  • 00:22:25
    there has to be an investigation. But
  • 00:22:27
    what the government can do, however, is
  • 00:22:30
    increase taxes, which means more money
  • 00:22:32
    from you to the government to help them
  • 00:22:34
    cover the costs of increased military
  • 00:22:36
    spending during times of war or
  • 00:22:37
    uncertainty. War can also increase
  • 00:22:40
    inflation. So, your money, if not
  • 00:22:41
    properly invested, would lose purchasing
  • 00:22:43
    power over time. So, yes, your dollar
  • 00:22:47
    could feel like it's shriveling up and
  • 00:22:49
    worthless or there might just be fewer
  • 00:22:51
    dollars in your bank account because
  • 00:22:52
    you're paying more in taxes, but it
  • 00:22:54
    isn't like a all of a sudden they're
  • 00:22:56
    allowed to just commandeer your cash.
  • 00:22:58
    While I certainly hope this ceasefire
  • 00:23:00
    holds as geopolitical tensions rise,
  • 00:23:02
    it's important to examine the money
  • 00:23:03
    behind the actions and how it could
  • 00:23:06
    affect you at home. In any scenario,
  • 00:23:09
    being prepared is the most successful
  • 00:23:11
    way to navigate both political and
  • 00:23:13
    economic twists and turns. I hope you
  • 00:23:15
    found this episode helpful and maybe
  • 00:23:17
    even learned a thing or two. And I will
  • 00:23:19
    leave you with a song lyric from the
  • 00:23:21
    wise Edwin Star. War, what is it good
  • 00:23:24
    for? Absolutely nothing. See you next
  • 00:23:27
    week. Thanks for tuning in to this
  • 00:23:29
    week's episode of Net and Chill, part of
  • 00:23:31
    the Vox Media Podcast Network. If you
  • 00:23:33
    like the episode, make sure to leave a
  • 00:23:35
    rating and review and subscribe so you
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    never miss an episode. Got a burning
  • 00:23:39
    financial question that you want covered
  • 00:23:40
    in a future episode? Write to us via
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    podcast atyouribb.com.
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    me at yourrichb for even more financial
  • 00:23:53
    knowhow. See you next week. Bye.
Etiquetas
  • Iran
  • oil prices
  • military spending
  • economy
  • geopolitical tensions
  • consumer prices
  • financial strategy
  • defense contractors
  • national debt
  • emergency fund