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Each Saturday, I come on here and
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explain the most important highlights of
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news that happened throughout the week
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and what it's done in the market and
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what it's about to do in the stock
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market because that's what we care about
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as investors. This week, equity markets
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climbed, fueled by strong earnings and
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rate cut optimism. The Fed indecision
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created both opportunity and risk.
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Markets are currently pricing in a
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September cut, but a July cut remains a
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catalyst. Dollar and bond markets are
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reactive. The dovish Fed rhetoric
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weakens the dollar and boosts flows into
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equities and emerging markets assets.
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Tariff headlines remain a volatility
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variable. Earnings have overshadowed
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short-lived trade jitters. With
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companies like Nvidia and Palunteer and
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other AI juggernauts just continuing to
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drive skyhigh, many don't know whether
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to buy, sell, or stay put. And crypto
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week happened this week and Bitcoin hit
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an all-time high and might just be
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getting started. My name is Nolan Goa.
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My students call me Professor G, and I
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made this channel to make investing
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simplified. So, this week was crypto
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week, and here are the highlights. This
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is an absolute historical moment for the
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crypto market and just markets in
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general. And so, after I explain the
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highlights, I'm going to tell you
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exactly what I think is going to happen
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with Bitcoin and the price action in the
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short term and in the long term. So the
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Genius Act which is stable coin
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regulation what it does is it sets the
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US's first comprehensive regulatory
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framework for dollar peg stable coins.
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It requires users including banks and
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crypto platforms to hold fully backed
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reserves in cash or nearcash assets and
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publish monthly disclosures on reserves.
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All these things that happened this week
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within the crypto week at the White
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House specifically centers around this
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idea of regulation and that is huge. I
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know that for crypto maximalists, we
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definitely don't want too much
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regulation. We don't want people or the
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government looking at or telling us what
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to do. But at the end of the day,
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without regulation, it's just way too
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risky. And if there isn't regulation or
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there isn't checks and balances or there
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isn't something similar to that in the
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crypto market and specifically for
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Bitcoin, then we're never going to get
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the big players. We're never going to
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get institutional style money to flow
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in. That's what they're all waiting for.
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And that's why this is so bullish for
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specifically Bitcoin. Trump signed the
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landmark crypto bill on Friday. The
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legislation called the Genius Act will
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be the first major law governing digital
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currency, establishing a regulatory
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framework for the $250 billion stable
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coin market. Stable coins are viewed as
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a relatively safe type of cryptocurrency
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since their values pegged to other
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assets like the dollar. The bill passed
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the House on Thursday with the support
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of 206 Republicans and 102 Democrats.
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Now, this is just talking about stable
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coins, but like I said, anything that is
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happening in the crypto market that's
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positive is like a rising tide that
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rises all ships. The Clarity Act. The
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purpose for this is that it clarifies
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which Federal Agency oversees which
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crypto assets. It empowers the Commodity
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Futures Trading Commission, the CFTC,
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with authority over tokenbased assets
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while reserving Securities and Exchange
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Commission, the SEC, jurisdiction for
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securities, alleviating regulatory
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uncertainty. The next steps for this is
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that it's approved by the House. It's
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now pending Senate and Presidential
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approval. Again, having this role
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definition is just very important so
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that we can start to figure out what are
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these assets actually defined as and
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specifically how are they taxed. That's
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very important. Then there's the
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anti-CBDC
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surveillance state act and what it does
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is it blocks the Federal Reserve from
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issuing a retail central bank digital
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currency to the public. Reflects
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widespread Republican concerns over
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privacy and governmental overreach. The
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status for this is that it passed
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narrowly in the House part of the three
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bill package with Senate review to
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follow. So why the heck does this matter
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for the market? It boosts stable coin
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legitimacy which has clear rules and
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disclosure requirements which strengthen
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confidence. It clarifies oversight.
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Placing digital assets under the CFTC
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framework reduces regulatory ambiguity
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and increases market certainty. It
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limits that digital dollar threat. And
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the market response from this is that
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Bitcoin surged about 20% from a 100,000
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to 120,000 amid optimism over the bills.
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As I've said before, this is a path to
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that institutional adoption for crypto.
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This is the most significant clarity
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that we've seen around this space,
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specifically in regulatory clarity. This
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is going to increase institutional and
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obviously retailer interest, which we've
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seen already because the coin has jumped
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up so much. What I think is going to
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happen with Bitcoin is that right now
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there's just so much hype in the world
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of cryptocurrency with the White House
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really being pro Bitcoin by far. A bunch
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of companies really starting to use it
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and to talk about it. So, it's a very
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popular thing now. I think that it still
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has room to grow. I think over these
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next 6 months or so, we may see it jump
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up to 150,000, possibly 200,000. I've
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seen a lot of analysts push it even
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further than that. But I do think that
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we still will have that cycle where it
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goes up a bunch, then it comes down a
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considerable amount. If you look back in
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the charts of Bitcoin, every four years
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it goes up a lot, then it drops, then it
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goes up a lot, then it drops. We may see
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a little bit less of that cycle now that
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we have the ETF and we have countries
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like our own in the USA that are talking
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about having it as a reserve currency.
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And that's would be a huge deal. And
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what that would do is that would limit
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the amount of drops. I think what it
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would do is it would keep it as stable
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as possible. And once Bitcoin starts
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becoming more stable. It's not as
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volatile as it was back in the day.
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That's when we're going to see even more
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institutional interest. And that's when
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we're going to see it really, really
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skyrocket. So, as I've been saying
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forever, this is a buy and hold. This is
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something that I buy with the intention
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to really never sell. But when people
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ask me, should I buy into Bitcoin? I
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just tell them look at it like you're
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going to buy this and not touch it for
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at least five years at the absolute very
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least. The next biggest stories that are
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probably affecting your investing
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definitely center all around Nvidia and
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other high-flying tech stocks and even
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big tech ETFs like the NASDAQ 100 or SMH
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for semiconductors. Both have been going
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nuts over the past couple of weeks. And
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I did a video recently on the top five
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positions my private clients need to
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exit where I explained certain spots in
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people's portfolios where they may want
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to pump the brakes, especially now in
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this environment. Some viewers thought
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that I was crazy to say to be cautious
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with Nvidia, but then a couple of days
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later, large fund managers and finance
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professionals started issuing the exact
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same guidance. This came out literally
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yesterday. Now, is this the time to take
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some chips off the table or just ride
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this rally going into earnings?
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I think for every individual person
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watching this and for every portfolio
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manager, unfortunately, I don't have
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advice that would cover the gamut of
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what everyone's trying to do. But one of
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the things that I think is very obvious
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is now is not the time to be getting
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more bullish than you were a month ago
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or 6 weeks ago. Now is the time to maybe
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say, "Okay, I've had a good run. a bunch
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of stocks that are up double digits in a
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very short period of time and uh do I
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still want to have as much exposure as I
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did when valuations were lower and there
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was less enthusiasm priced into these
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names? And for some of you, you'll say,
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you know what, actually, I haven't
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thought about that in a while, but maybe
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I don't want to have um a 5% position
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that just went to 8%. Um, and it's not a
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it's not the same as saying, um, oh,
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we're about to have a correction and I
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predict that it starts in 27 hours. It
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it's just a recognition that this has
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been an amazing market to be involved
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with and a lot of stocks have probably
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uh outgrown the original size that you
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put them on in your portfolio and you
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might want to make some decisions right
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now about if today were the starting
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point, how do I want to be allocated
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going forward?
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Joe, coming over to you. Uh so far very
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early going earning season actually
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going better than expected. The estimate
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was 5.7 at 6 and a half according to
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hell. Uh right now do you want to just
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continue to ride your winners into
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earnings or is it time to take a few
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bucks off the table and reposition a
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bit?
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You just kind of set an expectation for
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yourself and you say this quarter is not
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going to look like the previous quarter
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and if I want to do some minor selling,
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trimming some positions, I have no
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problem with that. But I'm going to stay
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anchored with the positions that I have.
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I think the risk in believing that this
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is some form of an inflection point.
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Number one is that you are going to get
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that rate cut in the fall. The earnings
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as you mentioned Frank are very strong.
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And then just lastly, I do a lot of
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pattern matching. If you go back, you
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have to remember we had the precipitous
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decline already this year. We had it in
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the spring. go back and pattern match
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the period from spring of 2018 through
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the end of 2019 and you'll see that
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precipitous decline in the fall of 2018.
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On the other side of that, you had a
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very steady staircase move higher and
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this pattern match to that time period
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is very high. That's potentially what
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we're setting up for right now. So, I
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think you stay anchored and you just set
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the expectation that maybe Q3 doesn't
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look as good as the prior quarter.
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As I stated in my video, Nvidia or those
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types of companies that have been going
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crazy are not bad companies and they're
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not ones that you absolutely need to get
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rid of fully. But what I am saying and
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what they're saying in that last clip is
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that people will absolutely be taking
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profits at this point. And that's not
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necessarily a bad idea, especially if
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you've profited big. But don't be
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surprised if we see a dip in the very
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near future because of all these people
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starting to take at least a little bit
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off the table. So in other news this
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week, the Fed rate debate has been
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heating up. We have people like Fed
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Governor Waller and Vice Chair Bowman
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both saying that that we should
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definitely have a rate cut of at least
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25 basis points in late July. However,
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the FOMC meeting minutes from June
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reveal a narrowly divided Fed about half
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favoring cuts this year and half urging
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caution due to lingering inflation
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concerns. The market reaction was that
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the uncertainty is pushing expectations
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of the first cut into September. But
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talk of July easing has buoyed equities
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and softened the dollar, reshaping
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capital flows. I don't think that we're
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going to see a cut here in July, but I
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do think that there will be the
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possibility of at least a 25 basis cut
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in September. As you've probably seen
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this last week, it was kind of crazy in
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the market. It just seemed like
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everything just kept going up. And that
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was from record setting earnings and
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economic data. US indices hit fresh
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all-time highs this week. The S&P 500
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rose about.5% and the Nasdaq 7%. More
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than 70% of Q2 S&P 500 companies beat
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earnings estimate with strength from
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staples PepsiCo to financials like JP
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Morgan and Tech Taiwan Semiconductor.
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Now, it wouldn't be one of these videos
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without talking about the tariffs. There
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is some uncertainty around the EU and
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Mexico tariffs which led to slight
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global market caution, though US
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equities remained resilient. And in
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other political noise, Trump renewed
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threats to fire Fed Chair Powell, which
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caused knee-jerk market reactions until
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he denied it. The tariffs are expected
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to be turned back on as of August 1st of
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this year. And so I'm watching that date
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closely and actually watching that week
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before very closely as well. If harsh
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tariffs are announced, we may see a dip.
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Though I don't think it's going to be as
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substantial of a dip as we saw back in
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April. If you have money right now,
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you're looking to invest right now at
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this moment, I would say why not hold
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off for at least a week or two and just
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see what happens around that date. As a
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strong educated guess, I would think
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that that would be the time that we
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would see a dip. Now, I'm not saying
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that that's for sure going to happen.
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And what I am saying is that I'm going
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to possibly hold off just a little bit
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of my investing until that time just to
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see what happens. But if it doesn't
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drop, I'm going to be totally fine
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putting the money in, even at all-time
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highs, for the three fund portfolio that
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I invest in, that I talk about all the
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time on this channel. Those are solid
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broad style ETFs that have been around
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forever and will continue to be around
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forever and are very resilient as we've
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seen this year. I'm also looking for
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deals on the individual stocks that I've
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been really heavily investing in lately
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like SoFi or Palunteer or Berkshire
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Hathaway with Berkshire Hathaway being
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in the solid value territory to me since
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I'm buying in at lower than what I was a
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couple of weeks ago. Watch either of
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these videos to keep you going strong in
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your investing journey. And remember to
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keep investing simplified.
