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I want to take you down on the ground
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for a moment and give you the scientific
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story behind the planetary boundaries
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the three pieces of extraordinary
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advancements in Earth system science
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that took us to the point where we per
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necessity needed to define a safe
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operating space for Humanity's future on
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earth and the first piece of the science
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is undoubtedly what I would argue being
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the most important message from science
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to humanity over the past 30 years we've
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entered a whole new geological Epoch
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we're now the dominating force of change
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on planet Earth my fellow scientist will
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Stefan leading Earth system scientist
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that we unfortunately lost two months
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ago he expressed it in the following way
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we're now starting to hit the ceiling of
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hard-wired processes that regulates the
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state and functioning of the entire
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Earth system we're working right now in
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my Institute by showing the evidence
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that we're no longer in the anthropocene
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we're deep into the anthropocene we're
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starting to see the loss of the
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resilience which actually put into
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question Vice president Al Gore's final
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statement here of this optimistic
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assumption that the ipcc correctly does
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that if we stopped emitting greenhouse
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gases the Earth system will be so
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powerful in its natural processes that
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it will simply suck up the carbon and
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get the temperatures down this is the
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challenge it's coming back into the
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planet boundaries that gives us any
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chance of that to be true now the
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anthropocene is the scale and the pace
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and connectivity in a globalized world
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it translates to something which I would
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call the current turbulence in the world
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we have a geopolitical crisis we have a
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climate crisis but we also have an
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ecological crisis 70 percent of the
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populations of vertebrates have been
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lost over the past 70 years one million
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of 8 million known species are extinct a
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risk at Extinction in just the next
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decades but this is not the fundamental
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challenge with ecological crisis is that
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we're losing the ability for moisture
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recycling for carbon sequestration for
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food production it's fundamentally also
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linked to the fourth crisis the zoonotic
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disease outbreaks of pandemics we've
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talked about that today
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that hockey stick you saw earlier this
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morning of the pandemics across the
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world well they're all zenosis they're
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all viral spillovers from Wildlife by
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domestic animals to humans very lightly
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and this is in itself indicatively
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caused by unsustainable overexploitation
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of natural habitats so not only do we
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have simultaneous Global crisis we are
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moving towards what potentially is a
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polycrisis when crisis interacts and
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reinforce each other that's where we're
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in we're in this turbulent phase of
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transition now so far on climate we are
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at 1.2 degrees Celsius of warming it's
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sourced from six different empirical
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observation stations across the world
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I've just pointed out the two extreme
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points here which is the 1998 and the
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2016 El Nino events you remember them
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perhaps I was myself in Kenya during the
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terrible flooding of 1998 just
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extraordinary extreme Peaks well we've
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had three years of La Nina
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three years of La Nina which normally
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should mean a cooler temperature but
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despite that 2022 is the fifth warmest
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year on record and it's the most
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expensive year in terms of loss and
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damage 313 US dollars in payment check
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from the climate impacts estimated last
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year across the entire world just the
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Pakistan floods is very likely a 20
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billion US dollar price tag
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as you've seen Noah projects that we're
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going into an nino phase probably later
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this year but very likely next year
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we're actually likely to bump into 1.5
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already by 2024. this will apart from
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the extreme events it will cause it will
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also certainly surface this questioning
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of whether 1.5 degrees Celsius can be
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held as the Target that we've all agreed
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upon I will be giving you the science
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why we need to hold on to 1.5 as a
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physical limit we cannot abundant 1.5
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but this is where we are in a jumpy
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situation and just like Al Gore pointed
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out ipcc the common denominator the
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consensus across the entire climate
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science Community is now very clear in
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its language this is the high level
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summaries from the summary report that
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came out of the ar-6 just a few weeks
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back I'm highlighting three in my mind
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key insights number one we're in the
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midst of the crisis it's hitting human
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well-being across the world today
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secondly For the First Time The ipcc
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makes clear we're threatening the
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stability of the planet
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this is what the planetary boundary size
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has been saying since 2009.
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It also says if you look at the lower
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sentence here on the slide for the first
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time that there is no safe landing for
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Humanity on 1.5 only by phasing out
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fossil fuels we need to keep the natural
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processes intact actually the ipcc even
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gives a number here up to 50 percent of
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intact nature on land needs to be kept
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intact for carbon sinks and carbon
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sequestration capacity
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is actually exactly the planetary
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boundary on land so it just shows us
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that the movement of direction is
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towards interdisciplinary Global
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sustainability science also to deal with
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the climate crisis now the science and
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support of what is at stake is Rising by
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every paper that is coming out and here
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I'm showing what I find to be personally
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that's one of the most impactful graphs
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I've seen over the past two years I
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should be clear here though this is the
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Potsdam institute's climber II emic
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climate model led by Andrei ganopolsky
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and Mateo Willett but it's the first
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time we're able with just physics and
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Mathematics to reproduce the Journey of
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our home planet Earth over the past
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three million years that's the x-axis
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the entire quaternary the pleistocene
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plus the Holocene the y-axis Global mean
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surface temperature zero is the
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pre-industrial 14 degree celsius point
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the black line is validation data you
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recognize the last million years ice
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core data the melanchovic site talking
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between hundred thousand years of ice
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ages short fifteen to thirty thousand
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years of anti-glacials we've had six to
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eight of those but look at the green
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line
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how the planet is dancing oh yes a lot
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of natural variability solar forcing
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volcanic eruptions earthquakes in and
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out of cold ice ages and warm
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interglacials but not at one time as far
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as we understand today did we reach two
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degrees
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the warmest point on Earth is below two
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the coldest point is roughly minus five
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deep Ice Age
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I call this today the corridor of Life
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why well it's because we have all
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evidence that the Earth prior to the
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quaternary is not an earth that we
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recognize as an earth that we know it it
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has a different configuration of the
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continents it has different chemistry
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biology carbon cycle nitrogen cycle
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water cycle it's another type of Planet
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it's only in the quaternary that we have
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a reference point for a planet that is
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at any assemblance of the living planet
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that we depend on for our
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future so this graph in itself I would
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argue is enough for climate action
00:07:16
because we're following a pathway that
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takes us to 2.7 degrees Celsius in only
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seven years 70 years I mean that is
00:07:24
undoubtedly without any hesitation in
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science a catastrophe
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this graph is enough to show we want to
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stay away well below two we are today at
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1.2 the warmest temperature on Earth
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since we left the last ice age and we
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have that data as well it's incredible
00:07:40
to see the osmaral synthesis that came
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out in 21 you know 2021 actually
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throughout the whole planetary boundary
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science I have always said that the
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Holocene is a reference point for
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desired planet that we depend on for
00:07:55
human development that I would argue is
00:07:57
scientifically quite well established
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today we've been on planet Earth for 200
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000 years as modern humans we've lived
00:08:03
through two ice ages and two
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interglacials but it's only when we
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leave the last ice age some sixteen
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thousand years ago that we shipped over
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from hunters and gatherers a few million
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people to
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basically just two thousand years into
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the Holocene and we do the most
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important invention of all of our
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civilizational history on Earth the
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Neolithic Revolution we become sedentary
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Farmers we domesticate animals and
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plants and off we go into the
00:08:29
civilizational journey that takes us to
00:08:31
the point where we can meet today and
00:08:33
talk about artificial intelligence and
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massive Innovations and science for
00:08:37
Humanity's future
00:08:39
now I've been saying throughout this
00:08:40
journey that the Holocene is a 14 degree
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celsius Planet plus minus one degree
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I was wrong
00:08:47
the awesome adult paper shows that it
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was even more narrow it's a 14 degree
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celsius plus minus 0.5
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all the variability that climate
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denialists love to pick forward the
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medieval warm period where Vikings
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supposedly were picking grape on the
00:09:02
southern points of Greenland were called
00:09:05
the tenth Gustav the Swedish King
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invaded Denmark in the late 17th century
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walking over the ice between Sweden and
00:09:13
Denmark because of the little Ice Age
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all of this sure it happened it was
00:09:18
natural variability within 0.5
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this is a very deep Insight we use this
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in the planet of boundary science as a
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reference point for the desired state of
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the planet we know the Holocene we
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measure against it the drama is that we
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also know increasingly why the planet
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stayed in this extraordinarily stable
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State it's not that the sun was so
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gentle to us it's not that volcanic
00:09:42
eruptions were so
00:09:44
non-abundant it is because of a healthy
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biosphere you've always seen I'm sure
00:09:50
the global carbon projects Global carbon
00:09:53
cycle updates each year you see the
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graph here to the left from 1850 until
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today it's our journey of fossil fuel
00:09:59
burning you see the hockey stick in Gray
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of fossil fuel hockey stick in Orange
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deforestation is it all of this that has
00:10:07
caused accumulated in the atmosphere to
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cause 1.2 degrees Celsius so far the
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answer is no we all know this we know
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that the dark blue part here is the
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ocean uptake the green part is the
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intact nature uptake and the more we
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stress the system with energy imbalance
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the more nature the more Earth has been
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helping us applying its biogeophysical
00:10:29
systems to dampen and reduce warming
00:10:32
this is a healthy Planet responding to
00:10:35
stress because the Holocene is an
00:10:37
attractor with feedbacks that keeps the
00:10:40
system in an equilibrium the numbers are
00:10:43
quite clear we've had the privilege of a
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50 uptake of a healthy Planet over this
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entire period this is the largest
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subsidy to the world economy completely
00:10:53
hidden and here comes the key point in
00:10:55
reference back to vice president Al Gore
00:10:58
the ipcc models even in the ar-6 assumes
00:11:02
that this will continue
00:11:03
assume that we can count on the ocean we
00:11:06
can count on intact nature the problem
00:11:09
is we're seeing more and more scientific
00:11:10
papers showing cracks in this system
00:11:13
we have the latest synthesis in the
00:11:15
Brazilian part of the Amazon rainforest
00:11:17
showing that over the past 10 years the
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richest terrestrial ecosystem on planet
00:11:21
Earth the Amazon rainforest has shifted
00:11:23
over from sink to Source can imagine
00:11:27
she's not helping us anymore in the
00:11:30
tropical rainforest system we're seeing
00:11:31
signs from Finland the per capita riches
00:11:34
tempered Forest country in the world
00:11:35
that has so far already in 2022 shifted
00:11:39
over from sink to Source in the
00:11:41
temperate forest systems we're seeing
00:11:43
signs of similar developments in Germany
00:11:45
in Sweden in Russia in Canada this is
00:11:49
worrying it's it's warning signals of
00:11:51
losing resilience in the earth system we
00:11:53
also have the ocean playing exactly the
00:11:55
same role for US 95 of the heat cause
00:11:57
biophosphere burning is taken up in the
00:12:00
ocean hiding out the heat the planet is
00:12:03
a thermostat now the El Nino Dynamics is
00:12:06
showing how this is potentially hitting
00:12:09
back at us at a higher frequency with
00:12:12
more severe magnitude so we have to be
00:12:15
very careful when we just easily
00:12:19
consider the pathway to the future is
00:12:21
only to decarbonize the Energy System
00:12:23
it's actually to come back with
00:12:25
implanetary boundaries to keep the
00:12:26
resilience intact but I want to come
00:12:28
back to the climate boundary and just
00:12:30
make the scientific point that 1.5 is
00:12:32
really a physical limit we mapped The
00:12:34
Tipping elements of the climate system
00:12:36
published in science a year back 16
00:12:39
climate tipping element systems has now
00:12:41
over 15 years of scientific advancement
00:12:43
been you know criteria very very
00:12:46
robustly selected they must fulfill two
00:12:50
key criteria one is that they
00:12:52
scientifically contribute I mean that
00:12:54
evidence of contributing to the state of
00:12:56
the climate system and secondly that
00:12:58
they have multiple stable States push
00:13:00
them too far and they cross the Tipping
00:13:02
Point here you have the map of the 16 I
00:13:04
just show it to make the point that they
00:13:06
are distributed across the entire planet
00:13:08
we all depend on them I personally
00:13:11
that's not published anywhere but I
00:13:13
personally consider these to be the
00:13:14
Global Commons the new Global Commons in
00:13:16
the anthropocene because we all
00:13:18
independent where we live depend on the
00:13:20
stability of these systems because they
00:13:22
help us they have negative feedbacks
00:13:24
dominating their equilibrium State and
00:13:27
they thereby cool and dampen pressures
00:13:29
from climate change here you have the
00:13:31
more scientific assessment of these 16.
00:13:33
on the x-axis you have the Tipping
00:13:35
element systems and you have the ipcc
00:13:38
red Embers assessment of confidence on
00:13:41
temperature assessments so the y-axis is
00:13:44
at what temperature are they at risk of
00:13:46
crossing their tipping points the black
00:13:48
dotted lines is the median level so
00:13:50
that's the likely point of crossing a
00:13:52
Tipping Point and now I'll put on the
00:13:54
1.5 line
00:13:56
and what you see is that four of these
00:13:58
systems the ones furthest to the left
00:13:59
are likely to cross their tipping points
00:14:01
already at 1.5 and these are the green
00:14:04
and ice sheet
00:14:05
the West Antarctica sheet all tropical
00:14:08
coral reef systems livelihoods for over
00:14:10
150 million people in coastal areas in
00:14:13
the equatorial belt on planet Earth and
00:14:15
abrupt thawing of permafrost in the
00:14:17
Boreal Zone up in the Arctic just the
00:14:19
two ice sheets hold 10 meter sea level
00:14:21
rise it wouldn't crash overnight of
00:14:24
course it would take perhaps thousand
00:14:26
years but it would be unstoppable it
00:14:28
would be a feedback shift and a
00:14:30
transition towards a new equilibrium
00:14:32
State I would argue that this provides
00:14:34
tremendous scientific support for
00:14:36
holding on to 1.5 is this one science
00:14:39
group saying this or is it something
00:14:40
that we're increasingly seeing
00:14:42
mainstreamed in a consensus in size I
00:14:44
would argue yes because here is the
00:14:46
trajectory between the ar5 and the ar-6
00:14:49
in terms of risk assessment so here's
00:14:51
the ipcc's red Ember diagrams on risks
00:14:55
for ecosystems but I'll just put on all
00:14:57
of these red Embers you've probably seen
00:14:58
them focus on the furthest to the right
00:15:01
the one right here which is the ipcc
00:15:04
assessment of large-scale singular
00:15:06
events which is basically non-linear
00:15:09
Dynamics and irreversible changes in
00:15:11
large tipping element systems the ar5
00:15:13
estimates the risks at roughly three
00:15:15
degrees Celsius but look at the more the
00:15:17
science advances the more we learn that
00:15:20
Earth is more sensitive to pressures of
00:15:24
climate forcing and that the risk level
00:15:25
even in the ipcc assessment is now down
00:15:28
to between 1.5 and 2 and the ipcar6 has
00:15:31
a list of 16 tipping element systems
00:15:34
without temperature levels but they have
00:15:36
a qualitative assessment so there we are
00:15:38
and we really need to understand that
00:15:41
the planetary boundaries is about
00:15:42
avoiding Crossing these thresholds to
00:15:45
keep the systems at a state that still
00:15:47
supports us I just want to show one
00:15:49
slide though what the implications can
00:15:52
be if we do not turn around very quickly
00:15:54
in terms of impacts on security
00:15:56
this is work from Mexico and colleagues
00:15:59
at Exeter University
00:16:01
I think this is one of the graphs that
00:16:03
should be in every foreign policy
00:16:05
Ministry in the world today on color you
00:16:08
have the traditional fragility maps of
00:16:10
economies so darker the red the more
00:16:12
Fragile the Nations but it's a health
00:16:14
layer combined with climate impact
00:16:16
assessments so what you see here in the
00:16:18
black spots are the regions that have an
00:16:20
average temperature exceeding 29 degrees
00:16:22
Celsius on an annual basis this is a
00:16:25
health threshold go above this and you
00:16:27
have health threats to us humans that's
00:16:30
why not surprisingly it's only in the
00:16:32
Sahara Desert you see this extreme heat
00:16:37
the dashed lines is the assessment if we
00:16:39
continue burning fossil fuels as today
00:16:41
the regions that will have this health
00:16:43
threatening temperature in only 50 years
00:16:46
time
00:16:47
this is a 2070 assessment just look at
00:16:51
the map
00:16:52
just look at the map Brazil West Africa
00:16:55
Horn of Africa Middle East look at India
00:16:57
soon world's most populated Nations 3.5
00:17:00
billion people living in regions where
00:17:03
the vulnerable who cannot afford hiding
00:17:06
behind air-conditioned housing will have
00:17:09
the risk of social instability potential
00:17:11
collapse migration and we see
00:17:14
increasingly related risks related also
00:17:18
to conflict this is of course something
00:17:20
we have to avoid it's a recipe for
00:17:22
instability of the world economy the
00:17:24
frontier in science though is is amongst
00:17:27
others this we're seeing more and more
00:17:29
evidence that these tipping element
00:17:30
systems are connected through Cascades
00:17:33
even so we have 16 16 systems but we
00:17:37
have several scientific papers out now
00:17:38
showing that when the green and ice
00:17:39
sheet melts so fast warming three times
00:17:43
faster than the average of planet Earth
00:17:44
releasing cold fresh water it slows down
00:17:47
the thermodynamic engine of overturning
00:17:49
of heat in the North Atlantic this is
00:17:51
well established 50 percent slow down
00:17:54
over the past 30 years
00:17:56
this pushes the monsoon further south
00:17:58
which can explain the rapid dieback and
00:18:01
forest fires and reduce rainfall over
00:18:03
another tipping element namely the
00:18:05
Amazon rainforest but of course slowing
00:18:07
down the overturning of heat also means
00:18:08
that more saline surface water warm
00:18:11
surface water is stuck in the Southern
00:18:13
Ocean which can explain why the West
00:18:14
Antarctic ice sheet is warming faster
00:18:16
melting faster than we had expected and
00:18:19
interconnectivity between the Arctic and
00:18:21
Antarctica through the Tipping elements
00:18:24
this is the scientific Frontier so the
00:18:26
evidence is one anthropocene two the
00:18:29
Holocene is our reference and three is
00:18:31
tipping points and this gives us this
00:18:33
heuristic equation that took us to the
00:18:35
planetary boundaries so I just want to
00:18:37
share this with you because we're fellow
00:18:39
scientists that the planetary boundaries
00:18:40
was just one little incremental step I
00:18:43
would even argue the unavoidable
00:18:45
incremental step based on all the
00:18:47
evidence we are sitting on it was kind
00:18:49
of an obvious that if we are putting all
00:18:50
this pressure on the planet if we're
00:18:52
risking non-linear change that cannot be
00:18:54
stopped if we have a reference point of
00:18:56
a desire Planet two questions arise
00:18:58
question number one is what are the
00:19:00
processes the biophysical processes that
00:19:03
regulates the state of the planet and
00:19:05
question number two can we with the
00:19:06
Holocene as a reference point quantify
00:19:09
scientifically boundaries within which
00:19:11
we have a high chance of staying within
00:19:13
a holocene-like interglacial state that
00:19:15
can support Humanity but go beyond it
00:19:17
and we risk drifting off the way
00:19:20
from the state that supports humanity
00:19:22
and Tata you have the planetary boundary
00:19:25
framework it was published the first
00:19:27
time in 2009 what you see here is the
00:19:29
2015 update here we are four of the nine
00:19:32
boundaries transgressed in our 2015
00:19:34
assessment
00:19:35
climate biodiversity land system change
00:19:39
and overloading of nitrogen phosphorus
00:19:41
you see one very important boundary that
00:19:44
is inside the safe space here which is
00:19:46
the stratospheric ozone layer actually
00:19:48
it was outside deep in the red in the
00:19:50
1980s but we actually thanks to science
00:19:53
thanks to the Fantastic work by Paul
00:19:55
Christian Mario Molina and Sherwood
00:19:58
Roland who got the Nobel Prize for
00:20:01
identifying the depletion of the
00:20:03
stratosphere goes on layer the chemistry
00:20:05
behind it and even showing the pathway
00:20:08
to a policy of of
00:20:10
forbidding the chlorofluorocarbons that
00:20:13
was causing this life-threatening
00:20:16
hole in the ozone layer for Humanity
00:20:19
the interesting thing with this story is
00:20:20
the following nobody had seen an ozone
00:20:23
hole nobody had really experienced the
00:20:26
immediate impacts
00:20:27
but the world listened to science
00:20:30
and policy listen to science and in 1987
00:20:33
the Montreal protocol was signed and it
00:20:36
didn't say an emission pathway it forbid
00:20:38
the gas it didn't say zero by 2050 it
00:20:42
said from now on it's finished and
00:20:45
industry was ready to innovate and that
00:20:48
took us to a solution and since two
00:20:50
years NASA has said the hole has been
00:20:52
closed we're back into the safe space
00:20:54
and why is this a success story I always
00:20:56
get criticized say well but you know but
00:20:58
the Mantra protocol that was an easy one
00:20:59
it was one industry one set of chemicals
00:21:02
this Technologies were there but I would
00:21:05
argue that we've reached a Montreal
00:21:07
moment for climate because the science
00:21:09
has settled just like the Montreal the
00:21:12
policy is settled just like the Montreal
00:21:14
protocol because there's nothing less to
00:21:16
negotiate with the Paris agreement it's
00:21:18
old and there we even have the loss and
00:21:20
damage in place the article six
00:21:21
everything is in place
00:21:23
we have all agreed to reach Zero by
00:21:25
2050. we have the 1.5 set the third part
00:21:29
has always been missing on climate we
00:21:31
did not have the solutions but now we
00:21:33
have them we have scalable Solutions so
00:21:35
we've reached a Montreal moment on the
00:21:37
climate boundary so the message to you
00:21:40
here today is the following in the midst
00:21:42
of the climate crisis where we're
00:21:44
putting so much risk on energy imbalance
00:21:48
in the atmosphere
00:21:50
when exactly at that moment you'd like
00:21:52
to have a strong resilient planet we
00:21:54
have unfortunately the planet in the
00:21:57
weakest Point throughout the entire
00:21:59
Holocene that's not a good combination
00:22:01
you don't want to have a weak planet
00:22:05
at a point of climate stress so this is
00:22:08
why we need to recognize that the
00:22:10
journey we're on is not a journey of
00:22:12
decarbonizing the Energy System it's
00:22:14
about a global sustainability transition
00:22:16
it's a transformation and the
00:22:18
transformation path is increasingly
00:22:19
researched the Earth commission came up
00:22:21
with a paper recently showing that we're
00:22:23
really at the edge of the Holocene it's
00:22:24
now the choice point we will be able to
00:22:26
transform and have a safe landing with
00:22:28
within safe and just
00:22:31
safe operating space or will we actually
00:22:33
start drifting off unstoppably towards a
00:22:35
hot house Earth State we know that for
00:22:37
the climate boundary the journey is set
00:22:39
it's actually a pace of 67 reduction of
00:22:43
global emissions per year to half
00:22:45
emissions by 2030 and reached NetZero by
00:22:47
2050 but my message to you is that this
00:22:49
is not enough this is the journey we're
00:22:51
on on climate decarbonize the world's
00:22:54
Energy System in Gray
00:22:56
transform the food system from dark
00:22:58
brown the single largest emitter to
00:23:01
become a sink in Orange scaling negative
00:23:04
emission Technologies in in real orange
00:23:06
the brown is actually the food system
00:23:08
but then also invest in the resilience
00:23:11
on intact nature and land the green part
00:23:14
which means stop expansion of
00:23:17
agriculture in particular to keep intact
00:23:19
nature intact
00:23:20
build more regenerative agriculture and
00:23:24
keep the carbon stability in the ocean
00:23:26
we have translated this into the carbon
00:23:29
law which means the pace we need to
00:23:31
follow is what I call inspired by the
00:23:33
Moore's Law cutting emissions by half
00:23:35
every decade would take us to one of
00:23:38
these steps of decarbonizing energy
00:23:39
system this is what we've been
00:23:40
discussing here a lot as Al Gore pointed
00:23:43
out there are really good points of
00:23:46
transition I I fully agree that we're
00:23:48
now turning a corner this is just a map
00:23:51
that I think we've underestimated 70
00:23:54
countries and regions in the world have
00:23:56
a price on carbon we have 200 countries
00:23:58
in the world and Europe has been pointed
00:24:01
out several times here has now adopted
00:24:02
not only the ets2 the mission trading
00:24:05
scheme for agriculture and transport and
00:24:08
construction buildings but also the sea
00:24:10
band which is a tax for All Imports for
00:24:13
those who are trying to export goods to
00:24:15
Europe without charging a price on
00:24:17
carbon this I would argue may actually
00:24:19
create a global price on carbon
00:24:21
automatically bottom up to level the
00:24:24
playing field
00:24:25
Al Gore refer referred to this the ipcc
00:24:28
positive hockey sticks of exponential
00:24:30
rise and renewable energy systems I
00:24:33
agree this is this is really exciting we
00:24:35
did quite recently a back of the
00:24:36
envelope showing that the doubling pace
00:24:39
of the past 15 years on Renewable Energy
00:24:41
Systems is doubling globally every 5.5
00:24:44
years but it's barely showing on the
00:24:47
curve because it's exponential and we
00:24:49
start from such a low point but if we
00:24:51
continue that pace just business as
00:24:53
usual
00:24:54
we would have 50 percent of electricity
00:24:57
globally from renewable energy by 2030.
00:25:01
so it's actually true that we are on
00:25:03
these exponentials it's S curves of
00:25:06
change but unfortunately we're not yet
00:25:07
bending the curve on the fossil fuel
00:25:09
generation but we're seeing a lot of
00:25:12
innovation paced and I would say that
00:25:14
one of the most exciting ones which has
00:25:16
been referred to is the transition in
00:25:17
the whole Mobility sector the fact that
00:25:20
we are now for the first time seeing
00:25:21
political leaders saying we have end
00:25:24
dates on the combustion engine that the
00:25:27
European Union is setting that date to
00:25:29
2035 just shows that we are on an Abrupt
00:25:31
change Journey but I want to really end
00:25:33
up just with coming back to the
00:25:35
biosphere at cop 15 last year in
00:25:38
Montreal the Kunming Montreal meeting
00:25:40
really established the 1.5 degrees
00:25:42
Celsius equivalent on nature the nature
00:25:45
positive agenda the planetary boundary
00:25:47
for nature and nature processes and that
00:25:51
point says we have to stop losing
00:25:53
functions in ecosystems from 2020
00:25:55
onwards this will not be possible
00:25:57
because we continue to lose it means we
00:26:00
have to regenerate and invest in nature
00:26:02
and have a net positive Point by 2030 to
00:26:05
uphold that resilience into your system
00:26:07
we are translating this to science-based
00:26:10
targets for businesses and cities across
00:26:12
the world through the Earth commission
00:26:13
and the Global Commons Alliance I see a
00:26:15
very interesting trajectory there going
00:26:16
from carbon to all the other planetary
00:26:18
boundaries for businesses and cities and
00:26:21
this is coming out 31st of May in and
00:26:23
also a scientific report that we hope
00:26:26
will be useful across communities in the
00:26:30
world and the only kind of final deeper
00:26:33
scientific take-home I want to just
00:26:35
leave with you is that yes we are in the
00:26:38
anthropocene yes that is a major major
00:26:41
challenge because we are the dominating
00:26:43
geological force of change on planet
00:26:45
Earth
00:26:45
but one thing that we at least
00:26:47
scientifically can say today is that it
00:26:50
is an Epoch but it's a pressure so far
00:26:52
it's not a new state we still have the
00:26:55
window open to keep the planet in a
00:26:58
hollow scene-like interglacial State we
00:27:00
don't have evidence that we have lost
00:27:01
the race but it is a race because I
00:27:05
totally agree with Henry and I agree
00:27:07
with Al Gore who pointed out that's not
00:27:09
a question anymore whether we are
00:27:12
at that hum point on the journey towards
00:27:15
a fossil fuel free world economy the
00:27:18
question is will we be fast enough will
00:27:21
we be too late will we be able to keep
00:27:23
the resilience intact so that's the
00:27:25
journey and the journey is really about
00:27:27
Equity but also Innovation and
00:27:29
transformation and of course science
00:27:30
plays a fundamental role here thank you
00:27:32
very much
00:27:36
I have never heard the
00:27:39
Earth for 1.5 make quite so compellingly
00:27:43
as you did then would you agree with me
00:27:47
foreign
00:27:52
we've got a lot of questions coming in
00:27:53
I'm going to take a question from one of
00:27:55
our online audience
00:27:58
um Arthur who's the president of the
00:28:00
international environment Forum in
00:28:01
Switzerland what's the planetary
00:28:03
boundary for photosynthesis where we've
00:28:05
destroyed so much plant life that it can
00:28:07
no longer feed all life on the planet
00:28:10
well thanks for that question but that's
00:28:12
that's um really it's almost as if I had
00:28:15
planted that question with him
00:28:17
photosynthesis planted of course you
00:28:19
caught that didn't you um
00:28:21
because in in the third scientific
00:28:23
update which is in reviewing right now
00:28:24
we're we're still having a challenge
00:28:26
with the bias forintegrity boundary
00:28:28
which has two control variables one is
00:28:30
extinction rates I mean species genetic
00:28:33
diversity that's quite easy to measure
00:28:35
and we've had the same boundary
00:28:36
definition since 2009 Extinction rates
00:28:39
per million species per year but the
00:28:42
second one has been much more difficult
00:28:43
which is on functional diversity we've
00:28:46
used mean species abundance we've used
00:28:48
the bias for integrity index but this
00:28:50
time we'll be using human appropriation
00:28:52
of net Prime reproduction exactly your
00:28:55
suggestion and we are measuring net
00:28:58
primary production through a number of
00:28:59
Earth system models and observations and
00:29:02
setting the maximum allowed
00:29:04
expropriation of net primary production
00:29:07
because that is a good indicator both of
00:29:10
carbon but also in terms of the health
00:29:12
of the entire natural system it is an
00:29:15
aggregate note though because many
00:29:16
colleges will say that it's a it's a bit
00:29:19
clumsy because it doesn't really it
00:29:21
doesn't distinguish between
00:29:23
native ecosystems and managed ecosystems
00:29:26
but still we think it can be used at an
00:29:28
earth system scale now you haven't got
00:29:31
population size on those plant
00:29:33
boundaries
00:29:35
um why not and is there a need for a
00:29:39
separate boundary for population size
00:29:42
yeah so that is um an important question
00:29:45
but it's almost like a like a whole
00:29:46
lecture in itself but but let me put it
00:29:49
very simple and it may surprise you a
00:29:51
bit but um I think you'll you'll
00:29:54
you'll you'll see my point here that
00:29:56
when we
00:29:58
um set out to map the planetary
00:30:01
boundaries the question we asked
00:30:03
is actually uh kind of disconnected from
00:30:07
us humans we're just asking the question
00:30:09
what does it take to keep the planet in
00:30:11
a Holocene state
00:30:13
biophysically in a Holocene State and
00:30:16
once we've defined that irrespective of
00:30:18
number of humans or human needs or human
00:30:21
wants we can then put Humanity back
00:30:23
within that safe operating space and
00:30:25
then the plan to boundary framework
00:30:27
therefore is completely agnostic to
00:30:29
whether we are 5 or 10 billion or
00:30:31
whether we are poor or rich or whether
00:30:33
we are high or low consumer whether we
00:30:34
have growth or no growth
00:30:36
I believe that was a really important
00:30:39
choice the limits to growth for example
00:30:40
did it differently they mapped natural
00:30:43
resources on Earth as well as you could
00:30:45
1972 and then compare that with human
00:30:48
needs and made assumptions on technology
00:30:50
and they failed because they assessed a
00:30:54
bit like maltas underestimated the pace
00:30:56
of innovation in terms of resource
00:30:59
efficiency the planetary boundary
00:31:01
framework on the other hand makes no
00:31:02
such assumptions we don't meddle
00:31:04
whatsoever with human needs once
00:31:07
Innovation we just say here's the fence
00:31:08
play your game inside that fence then if
00:31:12
you play like Leoni Messi or as I would
00:31:14
have played if I was on a football pitch
00:31:16
that's up to humanity
00:31:19
thank you we've got time for a couple of
00:31:21
quick questions uh from inside the
00:31:23
audience uh gentleman there my name is
00:31:26
John Porter and um
00:31:28
I'm from the University of Copenhagen
00:31:30
Denmark and uh
00:31:32
I work for the ipcc since
00:31:34
1994 I think I started with them again
00:31:37
it's a question about the things that
00:31:39
may be included in the planetary
00:31:41
boundary
00:31:42
and do you think this should Johan do
00:31:45
you think there should be their
00:31:46
planetary boundary for
00:31:48
gross domestic product for example I
00:31:51
mean because we are are we coming is
00:31:54
that
00:31:55
something which is pushing us
00:31:57
outside the the levels of safety within
00:32:01
the within the planetary boundaries
00:32:03
because is that the engine which is
00:32:05
actually pushing us outside into the
00:32:08
area of I mean you can argue both ways
00:32:10
you can say
00:32:11
you know GDP generates investment which
00:32:14
you can use for producing non-fossil
00:32:17
fuel sources of energy
00:32:19
so where where's your what's your
00:32:21
feeling about that
00:32:27
it's enough of population actually so
00:32:30
so we've kept GDP or economic growth
00:32:34
outside of the planetary boundary
00:32:35
framework
00:32:36
but but you're absolutely absolutely
00:32:38
right I mean these are
00:32:40
primary drivers why we are transgressing
00:32:43
the boundaries
00:32:45
we are doing more and more research on
00:32:47
many groups in the world are doing
00:32:48
research on connecting
00:32:50
GDP growth population growth even sdg
00:32:54
delivery against the planetary
00:32:56
boundaries so perhaps start groups even
00:32:59
in this room doing that kind of
00:33:00
interdisciplinary work so I'm totally
00:33:03
with you it's just that the fundament is
00:33:05
that the boundaries themselves
00:33:08
um are just setting the biophysical
00:33:09
space and then questions of GDP or
00:33:13
population or or technology comes as a
00:33:17
as a next integrator
00:33:19
so for example we're we're doing quite
00:33:22
some work on can we meet the sustainable
00:33:24
development goals within planetary
00:33:25
boundaries that's that's a big question
00:33:28
and there's a list of called the world
00:33:30
in 2050 where led by yasa which is you
00:33:35
know saying that 2030 is a milestone for
00:33:37
the for the sdgs but by 2050 we should
00:33:40
continue delivering on the sustainable
00:33:41
development goals in terms of
00:33:43
just like Banky Moon pointed out in
00:33:45
terms of the social
00:33:47
um 169 targets 17 goals within planetary
00:33:52
boundaries we cannot risk the planet now
00:33:54
the sdgs interestingly has four of the
00:33:56
boundaries six thirteen fourteen fifteen
00:33:59
so biodiversity fresh water oceans
00:34:03
and climate are are there
00:34:06
um which is very positive but not all
00:34:08
the nine
00:34:10
um two more questions um there's one
00:34:12
over there
00:34:14
and sir just tell us who you are
00:34:17
from the University of Illinois Champion
00:34:20
uh very very inspiring talk and the way
00:34:24
I think about it there are fundamentally
00:34:26
two aspects to The Climate system one is
00:34:28
the energy and the second one is water
00:34:31
and one doesn't maintain the other those
00:34:35
are two different facets uh of a climate
00:34:38
system and we have done a pretty good
00:34:40
job articulating issues from the energy
00:34:42
side using the lens of temperature and
00:34:45
we know what those fluctuations are and
00:34:48
how they matter we haven't done that for
00:34:51
water and from some of the planetary
00:34:53
boundaries I see that the fresh water
00:34:55
has hasn't crossed the boundary and yet
00:34:59
that's one of the most important things
00:35:01
that we hear about in terms of floods
00:35:03
and droughts and other things is there a
00:35:05
way for us to characterize the planetary
00:35:07
boundary from the lens of water rather
00:35:09
than just temperature and create an
00:35:11
index or what would that look like or
00:35:13
what are the challenges I'd love to hear
00:35:15
your thoughts on that briefly if you
00:35:17
were here yeah no that that's a well
00:35:19
really good question and well to begin
00:35:20
with the latest planet boundary
00:35:22
assessment does actually put even the
00:35:25
freshwater boundary outside of the safe
00:35:27
space based on the latest Publications
00:35:29
which are outside the planet boundary
00:35:30
group on both green water and Blue Water
00:35:32
they've done a fantastic study on the
00:35:34
variability in relation to that logical
00:35:36
cycle in the in the in the late Holocene
00:35:38
I think it would be really important to
00:35:41
include water water is victim number one
00:35:43
of climate impacts but we're also
00:35:45
changing the whole hydrological cycle
00:35:47
not only because of climate change but
00:35:48
also because of land system change so
00:35:51
you're right I think we're missing that
00:35:53
indicator on fresh water stability fully
00:35:56
and it also perhaps gives me just a
00:35:58
final reminder that
00:36:00
there is of course many environmental
00:36:02
impacts occurring before you transgress
00:36:04
the planetary boundary because we're
00:36:06
only in the planet boundary framework
00:36:07
only concerned with the stability of the
00:36:09
planet but local environmental impacts
00:36:11
like collapse in freshwater systems or
00:36:15
droughts or ecosystems collapsing may
00:36:18
occur or will occur before you knock
00:36:20
over the planet so it's not it's not
00:36:22
substituting all the great Frameworks
00:36:26
for Environmental Management it's a
00:36:27
compliment
00:36:29
final question over here hi my name is
00:36:31
Govinda I'm an entrepreneur building
00:36:34
software to decarbonize in our Energy
00:36:35
Systems so all the discussion every time
00:36:38
I listen to scientists it depresses me
00:36:40
uh even though I've done climate science
00:36:44
I think what we need to get back at an
00:36:46
individual level how I can Define my own
00:36:48
planetary boundaries I don't know how it
00:36:50
can go because that will
00:36:52
be more actionable so I don't know
00:36:54
what's your thought at the bottom of
00:36:56
approach rather than talk to an approach
00:36:57
here thank you yeah thanks though so I I
00:37:00
ended a bit quickly by saying that one
00:37:02
of the things that really excites us and
00:37:04
the planet about is science Community is
00:37:06
that we're working very closely with the
00:37:08
science-based target Network translating
00:37:11
the boundaries into operational
00:37:13
science-based targets that can be used
00:37:14
by companies individual companies cities
00:37:17
countries so so that is one way of doing
00:37:21
it I think the second is actually just
00:37:23
just to take on that systems perspective
00:37:25
and always remembering that you cannot
00:37:27
focus in only on on carbon and energy
00:37:30
you have to always look at implications
00:37:33
across the other boundaries and I think
00:37:35
it's it's a very good starting point to
00:37:37
start with fresh water and biodiversity
00:37:39
as two of those obvious first impacted
00:37:43
boundaries when it comes to changes in
00:37:45
the climate system
00:37:48
so just as Banky moon was saying shorter
00:37:50
showers Turn All the Lights Off
00:37:53
all of those kind of things every
00:37:55
everything is is good but I you know
00:37:57
when I get this question that's that's
00:37:59
all important as well but I think the
00:38:01
most important thing that we can do is
00:38:03
is is to tell this scientific story to
00:38:06
our friends and and to keep this
00:38:08
momentum going I think it's a it really
00:38:10
worries me that uh we we do not have
00:38:14
we're not close even to understanding
00:38:16
that we're putting the whole planet at
00:38:18
risk and we're certainly not close as
00:38:20
having a more wide understanding of 1.5
00:38:22
degrees Celsius we should not play with
00:38:24
that number it's a really serious limit
00:38:26
and so I think it's uh just
00:38:29
um just spreading that message is
00:38:31
equally important as as our own
00:38:33
behaviors
00:38:34
thank you so much Johanna rockstone
00:38:36
[Applause]
00:38:39
[Music]
