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[Music]
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i recently read
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think again by adam grant when was the
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last time you changed your mind
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many people see virtue and sticking to
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their beliefs and holding on to strong
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opinions
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but the more willing you are to change
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your mind after careful reasoning
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and not pure pressure the more likely
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you are to rise to the top of any field
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forecasters who change their mind twice
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as much as other forecasters
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prior to a final prediction on an
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election a sporting event or where the
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stock market will be a year from now
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produce significantly more accurate
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forecasts
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college students who have more eraser
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marks on their exams
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and reconsider their answers before
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handing in an exam
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routinely score higher than students who
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don't rethink their first answer
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and u.s presidents who are ranked
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highest among historians
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are those who displayed intellectual
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curiosity and openness
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and were most likely to adjust their
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policies based on new information
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george bernard shaw famously said those
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who cannot change their mind
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cannot change anything think of changing
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your mind like upgrading your smartphone
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you don't want to be the person walking
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around with a 10 year old smartphone
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it's slow prone to crashing it makes it
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difficult to communicate with others
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many of us fail to upgrade our opinions
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and way of thinking because we get stuck
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in an overconfident cycle
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we form an opinion that feels right we
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like feeling right so we seek
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information to support that opinion
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while discounting and dismissing
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information that doesn't support our
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opinion
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as a result we feel validated for
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holding the opinion
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which gives way to more pride and starts
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the cycle over again
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when you allow an overconfidence cycle
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to continue
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you stop learning and stop listening to
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anyone that doesn't support your opinion
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feeling right is more important than
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being right
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if you're watching this video you are
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someone with an open mind
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who is willing to think again but even
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brilliant minds get stuck in an
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overconfidence cycle
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einstein refused to support the emerging
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field of quantum mechanics
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despite the overwhelming evidence that
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supported it
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what trapped einstein and what traps
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other great minds in an overconfident
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cycle
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are three modes we all enter from time
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to time
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preaching prosecuting and politicking
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as long as we are stuck in any of these
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three modes feeling right
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becomes more important than being right
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and we stop
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learning overconfidence mode number one
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preaching when trying to convince
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someone to adopt your belief
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you'll probably pretend to be 100
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certain in your belief to be more
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persuasive
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the more you preach that belief the more
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certainty you'll develop
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and think that your belief is
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bulletproof the more that someone
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preaches about a single type of
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investment like bitcoin the more likely
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they are to dismiss concerning data
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that could jeopardize bitcoin and lead
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to a catastrophic loss
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the more time someone preaches about a
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political candidate the more likely they
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are to dismiss
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actions he or she is taking that they
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would probably condemn if they had not
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been preaching the strengths of that
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candidate to others
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over confidence mode number two
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prosecuting
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when we think someone's belief is wrong
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we get busy building up a case against
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them
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and stop considering any valid points
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they have to say
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if someone is busy bashing bitcoin and
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looking for reasons why bitcoin is a bad
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investment
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just to score points in a twitter battle
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they'll ignore or discount good
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arguments for why bitcoin is a good
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investment
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and might miss a great opportunity to
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diversify their portfolio
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and protect their savings over
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confidence mode number three
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politicking politicking is the act of
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adopting
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other people's views because we want to
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be liked by them
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and accepted by them in my first job at
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a college
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i wanted to be liked and accepted by my
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boss so i started talking like my boss
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and supported positions that he
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supported gradually
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i found myself taking on beliefs and
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opinions that he held without fully
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vetting them
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adam grant says when we become so
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wrapped up in preaching that we're right
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prosecuting others who are wrong and
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politicking for support
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we don't bother to rethink our own views
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and we get trapped in an overconfidence
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cycle
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to get ourselves out of an overconfident
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cycle we need to think like a scientist
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when adam grant asked world-renowned
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scientist daniel kahneman
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how he reacts when people find flaws in
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his research
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danny's eyes lit up and he said it's
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wonderful i get a chance to be less
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wrong
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great scientists like kahneman see ideas
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and beliefs
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as hunches and hypotheses that need to
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be tested
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when they encounter data that casts
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doubt on their hypothesis
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they get an opportunity to discover new
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ideas and better understand reality
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when you think like a scientist your
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opinions and beliefs are starting points
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that you expect to revise
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based on incoming data grant says in
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preacher mode
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changing your mind is a mark of moral
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weakness but in scientist mode
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it's a sign of intellectual integrity in
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prosecutor mode
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allowing ourselves to be persuaded is
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admitting defeat
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in scientist mode it's a step toward the
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truth
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in politician mode we flip flop in
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response to carrots and sticks
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in scientist mode we shift in the face
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of sharper logic
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and stronger data in 2016
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researchers gathered over 100 italian
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entrepreneurs and split them into two
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groups
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both groups took the same four-month
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entrepreneurship course
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that taught startup strategy customer
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interviews and how to build a minimum
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viable product
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but only one group was taught how to
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think like scientists
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and see business strategy as theory
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customer interviews as a way to develop
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hypotheses
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and their minimum viable product and
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prototypes as experiments to test those
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hypotheses
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the entrepreneurs who were taught to
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think like scientists were taught to
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objectively measure results
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and determine if the data supported or
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refuted their hypotheses
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one year after completing the course the
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entrepreneurs who were taught to think
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like scientists
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pivoted twice as often and generated
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forty seven hundred percent
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more revenue at the end of the year
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start thinking like a scientist by
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getting curious
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every time you experience doubt the
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moment
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doubt turns to curiosity you have an
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opportunity to discover new ideas
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and experience the joy of learning by
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learning and improving upon your ideas
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you gain confidence in your capacity to
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learn well remaining humble
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about what you didn't know and what you
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still don't know
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this is known as confident humility
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doubt leads to curiosity which leads to
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discovery
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which leads to confident humility this
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is known as the rethinking cycle
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one way to keep the rethinking cycle
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going is to update a note on your phone
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that contains two lists things i don't
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know
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and things i've learned recently when
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you review both lists
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you stay humble but confident in your
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ability to learn
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adam grant's things i don't know list
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includes art financial markets
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fashion chemistry food and why british
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accents turn american in songs
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and why it's impossible to tickle
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yourself
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another way to stay in the rethinking
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cycle is to listen to podcasts with
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people
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who make you think even if you disagree
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with what they think
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in the end an overconfident cycle
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ensures you spend your life defending
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outdated ideas
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and refusing to learn well a rethinking
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cycle
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increases your mental flexibility and
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allows you to experience the joy of
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learning
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to avoid an overconfidence cycle
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recognize when you're in preaching mode
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prosecuting mode or politicking mode and
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start thinking like a scientist
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to enter a rethinking cycle think like a
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scientist
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by seeing your ideas and beliefs as
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hunches and hypotheses
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endowed as the first step towards a new
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discovery
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then stay in a rethinking cycle by
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keeping a list of things i don't know
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and things i've learned recently to
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remain confidently humble
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and seek out people who make you think
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even if you disagree with what they
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think
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whenever you find yourself clinging onto
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ideas and ignoring conflicting
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information
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ask yourself do i value being right or
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just feeling right
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that was the core message that i
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gathered from think again by adam grant
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this is another remarkable book by adam
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grant that's well written and well
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researched i highly recommend it
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if you would like a one-page pdf summary
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of insights that i gathered from this
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book
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just click the link below and i'd be
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happy to email it to you
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if you already subscribed to the free
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productivity game email newsletter
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this pdf is sitting in your inbox if you
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like this video
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please share it and as always thanks for
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watching and have yourself
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a productive week
