Onramp Webinar Series E001: Bitcoin’s Full Potential Valuation

The webinar, originally recorded in December, is hosted by Onramp Media, featuring co-founders Jesse Meers and Brian Cabis, along with Mark Connor from 3 IQ. The discussion, prompted by Bitcoin's recent halving, explores Bitcoin's supply dynamics and potential valuation. A key point emphasizes Onramp's belief in Bitcoin as a crucial 21st-century asset, with a focus on secure, multi-institution custody solutions providing peace of mind for long-term Bitcoin holding.

Brian Cabis (Onramp Head of Strategy and Research) introduces Jesse Meers (Onramp COO and co-founder) and Mark Connors (Head of Research at 3IQ) for the first session of the Onramp webinar series. This interactive forum aims to explore Bitcoin's investment potential, encourage audience participation through a Q&A, and discuss fundamental merits. Cam Stromy, Onramp's Head of Private Wealth, further elaborates on Onramp's focus on Bitcoin asset management and educational initiatives.

Onramp emphasizes the importance of understanding the nuances of Bitcoin custody in long-term investment, highlighting their multi-institution custody model which eliminates single points of failure. Historically, custody has been either through single institutions or self-custody, both with risks. Onramp offers a novel solution involving three institutions holding Bitcoin keys, ensuring security. This conversation sets the stage for discussing Bitcoin's full potential valuation in this session.

Jesse Meers outlines his report on Bitcoin's potential valuation, questioning how high its future value could reach. He approaches valuation using a management consulting mindset, comparing Bitcoin to assets like gold because of its scarcity and store of value properties. The report, available online, considers Bitcoin a perfected version of traditional assets. The session explores Bitcoin's market competition and potential to serve as a store of value amid inflation and global debt issues.

Bitcoin is positioned as a digital gold with unique scarce supply properties, rivaling traditional stores of value. The report compares Bitcoin's ability to retain value against inflation against assets like gold, emphasizing its digital nature and potential to outperform across different asset classes due to growing global adoption. Jesse argues that Bitcoin's scarcity and its digital evolution represent a pivotal technological advancement akin to the digitization of information by the internet.

Bitcoin's supply schedule is unique among commodities, possessing increasing scarcity as supply issuance decreases over time. Unlike traditional commodities, which have a price ceiling based on supply and demand, Bitcoin's diminishing supply allows its potential price ceiling to scale endlessly. This scarcity, coupled with its first-of-its-kind status as a digital commodity, allows Bitcoin to represent an unparalleled investment opportunity distinct from physical commodities.

Bitcoin's available supply will eventually reach 21 million, causing an asymptotic decrease in new supply issuance, which directly influences potential pricing. This unique economic situation provides Bitcoin with the potential to scale infinitely in terms of its maximum valuation. A corresponding analysis shows Bitcoin's 'unthinkable' potential to grow in value over time due to its scarcity. Jesse invites participants to download his report for an in-depth exploration of Bitcoin's market dynamics.

The webinar examines Bitcoin's place within the global asset landscape, measuring it against the total $900 trillion market valuation in various asset classes. Despite Bitcoin's current relatively small market cap, its unique value proposition as a store of value asset is explored regarding its potential to redirect asset allocations from other markets such as real estate and equities, attributed to its increasing scarcity.

Jesse's report offers a conservative estimate of Bitcoin capturing a significant portion of global value, suggesting a potential long-term valuation of $200 trillion, or about $10 million per Bitcoin in today's dollars. The report highlights the inherent value of Bitcoin as a 'perfect money' due to its scarcity, contrasting it with traditional assets facing inflation and diminishing purchasing power. Acknowledging potential criticism, Jesse encourages personal evaluation of Bitcoin's potential capture of global value.

Bitcoin's appeal is discussed in terms of its predictable supply and increasing scarcity, leading to potential high returns compared to traditional investment assets like bonds. The conversation shifts to the potential institutional adoption of Bitcoin due to ETF approvals, which would increase demand. Jesse and Brian highlight that ETFs add a tailwind to Bitcoin's price and adoption by institutional investors globally.

The discussion highlights Bitcoin's resilience against inflation as its scarcity maintains value without future cash flows like other assets. This quality is emphasized as more investors, especially institutions, recognize Bitcoin's stable value proposition amidst decreasing confidence in fiat currencies. The speakers urge the current problematic financial system to explore Bitcoin for its attractive properties in asset value preservation and transferability compared to traditional assets, especially in high inflation.

Bitcoin's growing utility, including through innovations like the Lightning Network, adds to its demand, with potential uses beyond just being a financial asset. By offering a decentralized payments network and enabling stranded energy monetization, Bitcoin's multifaceted appeal can attract diverse industries. This growing demand, along with skepticism about traditional financial systems, supports Bitcoin's potential long-term value growth.