01 Genokon24 Tag1 Ronald Slabke

The segment introduces the theme of predictions, noting how often analysts and pollsters get it wrong. An example is given of how most did not foresee Trump's clear re-election. A year ago, a speaker predicted the recovery of the German mortgage market amid industry doubt, which largely came true. Ronald, a board member from Hypoport, is introduced, credited for advocacy of homeownership in Germany, and he's asked whether his predictions relied on guesswork or expertise.

Ronald addresses whether his prediction was luck or knowledge, admitting to a bit of luck. He reflects on the encouraging fight for more homeownership in Germany, confirming the struggle isn't over. He's set to review last year and make another forecast, lightening the atmosphere with humorous remarks about past audience expectations and setting the stage to talk numbers again. He tests the audience's memory on last year's forecast accuracy and tempts them with 'prognoses'.

Ronald recaps the prior year's forecast numbers—speculating the German mortgage market would reach roughly 220 billion Euro with segments from property purchases, new constructions, refinancings, and energy-related renovations. The positive outcome reflects exceeding 135 billion Euro, emphasizing a strong property market in 2023 with increased transactions and some price hikes. He provides a joyful nod to those who have successfully secured homes, reinforcing their cost predictability and stability amidst the increasing rental market squeeze.

There is increased pressure on individuals to seek homeownership due to constraints in the rental market, compounded by stagnation in rental turnover and a mismatch in housing size appropriateness to tenant needs. The statistic reveals a significant percentage of the majority still live in rentals. Politically induced constraints have resulted in less tenant mobility, leading to ineffective housing size allocations and making it difficult to match housing with life stages, notably affecting families and retirees.

Contributing to the housing market pressure is the limited supply and frequent unsuitable occupancy of what exists, leading to overcrowded or oversized accommodations, impairing the efficacy of the current stock. Despite governmental attempts to boost new housing construction, the supply has been insufficient to meet demands, which has intensified pressure for homeownership to accommodate diverse life stages. This situation necessitates structural changes to ease the restricted movement within the rental sector, pushing a reliance on homeownership as a solution.

Ronald reflects on missed predictions related to new constructions and refinancings, with political reluctance limiting housing market responsiveness. He notes the stagnant refinancing activity despite significant potentials, attributing it to various economic factors like forward loans and reallocation of savings over debts. The entrenched rental market limits movement, requiring policy shifts to favor new housing, securing lower interest rates—a necessity to maintain equilibrium amid rising housing demands.

He remarks on the geopolitical implications following Trump’s policy directions, potentially stabilizing or reducing energy costs, which could indirectly stabilize inflationary pressures. This scenario could foster a low-interest environment conducive to a stronger housing market. There is skepticism about radical policy shifts without adjustments in existing housing policies or deregulation efforts, resulting in constrained housing market efficiencies.

Ronald foresees a positive yet conservative outlook for 2025, with slight growth expectations driven by stabilizing housing prices and transactions, although uncertainties remain high due to political developments. He contemplates potential shifts in market dynamics due to geopolitical factors, advocating for readiness to counter potential volatility. There's an emphasis on the critical role of government readiness post-election to sustain housing market flexibilities addressing diverse housing needs effectively.