Ethereum: Dubious Speculation

00:49:41
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KWWoGH-KpKY

Summary

TLDRLa vidéo analyse la dynamique d'Ethereum par rapport à Bitcoin, notamment à travers la paire ETH/BTC. L'analyste souligne que l'évolution de cette paire peut influencer les altcoins et que le marché pourrait souffrir tant que la politique de resserrement quantitatif (QT) est active. Il expose ses prévisions sur ETH/BTC à 0,03, tout en évoquant des scénarios optimistes où ETH pourrait se redresser rapidement en cas de changement de politique monétaire. En conclusion, l'analyste appelle à suivre les nouvelles du marché et des données économiques pour des indicateurs de changement dans la tendance actuelle.

Takeaways

  • 📈 ETH/BTC guide le marché des altcoins.
  • 📉 Le resserrement quantitatif pèse sur ETH.
  • 🔍 L'analyste prédit un rebond potentiel à 0,03.
  • ⏳ La nécessité d'attendre la fin de QT.
  • 📊 Les tendances historiques influencent les prévisions.
  • 🤔 Ethereum pourrait être sous-évalué actuellement.
  • 💡 Un soutien pourrait se former au-dessus de 3K $.
  • ⚠️ Des conditions macroéconomiques incertaines.
  • 💭 L'importance de rester optimiste malgré les risques.
  • 🎥 Suivez les mises à jour et analyses futures.

Timeline

  • 00:00:00 - 00:05:00

    Introduction à la spéculation sur Ethereum et l'importance de l'Ethereum par rapport au Bitcoin.

  • 00:05:00 - 00:10:00

    Discussion sur l'état actuel du marché des altcoins, en lien avec l'Ethereum et les tendances depuis 2021.

  • 00:10:00 - 00:15:00

    Rétrospective sur la phase de distribution de l'Ethereum par rapport au Bitcoin et les prévisions antérieures.

  • 00:15:00 - 00:20:00

    Analyse de l'évolution d'Ethereum/BTC et des prévisions de valeurs cibles, tout en indiquant les incertitudes quant aux délais.

  • 00:20:00 - 00:25:00

    Contexte de la politique monétaire actuelle et son impact sur le marché de l'Ethereum et des altcoins.

  • 00:25:00 - 00:30:00

    Observation des tendances passées et de l'impact des interventions de la Réserve fédérale sur le marché des cryptos.

  • 00:30:00 - 00:35:00

    Comparaison des tendances Ethereum avec celles de Bitcoin et des implications de la prochaine réunion de la FED.

  • 00:35:00 - 00:40:00

    Examen des diverses perspectives optimistes et pessimistes concernant l'Ethereum/USD et l'Ethereum/BTC.

  • 00:40:00 - 00:49:41

    Conclusion sur le besoin d'une flexibilité en fonction des changements de la politique monétaire pour anticiper l'avenir d'Ethereum.

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Mind Map

Video Q&A

  • Qu'est-ce que la relation entre Ethereum et Bitcoin ?

    La relation entre Ethereum et Bitcoin est souvent analysée à travers le pair ETH/BTC, influençant les mouvements du marché des altcoins.

  • Comment la politique monétaire affecte-t-elle le marché des crypto ?

    La politique monétaire, notamment le resserrement quantitatif, peut conduire à la dévaluation des actifs à risque comme Ethereum.

  • Qu'est-ce que le "bull market support band" ?

    C'est une zone de support dans un marché haussier où l'on s'attend à ce que le prix des actifs rebondisse.

  • Pourquoi ETH/BTC pourrait atteindre 0,03 ?

    L'analyste pense qu'Ethereum est actuellement sous-évalué par rapport à Bitcoin et vise ce niveau en fonction des tendances historiques et des retracements Fibonacci.

  • Quand est-ce que la politique de resserrement quantitatif pourrait changer ?

    Cela dépend des décisions de la Réserve fédérale américaine et de l'évolution des données économiques.

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  • 00:00:00
    hey everyone and thanks for jumping back
  • 00:00:02
    into the cryptoverse today we're going
  • 00:00:05
    to talk about ethereum dubious
  • 00:00:08
    speculation if you guys like the content
  • 00:00:10
    make sure you subscribe to the channel
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    give the video a thumbs up and also
  • 00:00:12
    check out the sale on into the cryptar
  • 00:00:15
    premium add into the crypto.com
  • 00:00:18
    ethereum is always an interesting topic
  • 00:00:22
    to discuss and for me I really like to
  • 00:00:27
    dive into the eth Bitcoin pair now we
  • 00:00:29
    also talk about ethusd in this video as
  • 00:00:32
    well um but eth Bitcoin is a very
  • 00:00:38
    interesting topic and it and it really
  • 00:00:40
    guides the altcoin market if you have
  • 00:00:43
    felt this cycle like the altcoin market
  • 00:00:46
    has been stuck in traffic on struggle
  • 00:00:49
    Street you would be right you would be
  • 00:00:52
    right and in fact as we showed yesterday
  • 00:00:56
    during the Bitcoin dominance video if
  • 00:00:58
    you look at the advanced decline index
  • 00:01:00
    for the top 100 cryptocurrencies it has
  • 00:01:02
    been a downtrend since 2021 right so
  • 00:01:04
    there's been more declining than
  • 00:01:06
    advancing which is similar to the top
  • 00:01:09
    after 2017 until a couple of months
  • 00:01:12
    after quantitative easing began last
  • 00:01:14
    cycle and then once QE began then the
  • 00:01:17
    altcoin market started to to to to
  • 00:01:19
    Really move with an even faster than
  • 00:01:24
    Bitcoin but eth Bitcoin sets the tone
  • 00:01:28
    for the altcoin market I'm not saying
  • 00:01:30
    that some alts can't go up we've seen
  • 00:01:32
    plenty do well but the collective
  • 00:01:35
    altcoin Market it needs the the approval
  • 00:01:39
    from from eth to say that all right eth
  • 00:01:42
    Bitcoin is is is sort of changing course
  • 00:01:46
    now the first two videos on my channel
  • 00:01:49
    are actually about eth and in
  • 00:01:52
    2022 when we talked about eth Bitcoin I
  • 00:01:55
    made several videos back then saying
  • 00:01:58
    that eth Bitcoin was in a massive
  • 00:02:00
    distribution phase and it pained me to
  • 00:02:04
    read the comments uh back then because
  • 00:02:07
    everyone just told me I was you know
  • 00:02:10
    crazy and insane and and I mean maybe
  • 00:02:13
    they're right but it was hard to read it
  • 00:02:15
    because I I I like to think that I was
  • 00:02:17
    trying to just remain objective now I
  • 00:02:19
    don't get everything right obviously I
  • 00:02:21
    get plenty of things wrong but I did
  • 00:02:24
    have a a very strong conviction that
  • 00:02:26
    this was just a you know a massive
  • 00:02:29
    distribution phase up here if you go
  • 00:02:32
    back and look at some of the very first
  • 00:02:34
    videos on my channel right I mean this
  • 00:02:36
    is the second video I ever published it
  • 00:02:39
    was called eth Bitcoin is severely
  • 00:02:41
    undervalued an analysis of past Trends
  • 00:02:44
    correlations and fractals and again this
  • 00:02:46
    is the second video on my channel back
  • 00:02:49
    in in 2019 and so when when this cycle
  • 00:02:53
    was really moving right once the once
  • 00:02:54
    the bare Market started in 2022 and then
  • 00:02:56
    we got out into 2023 I was thinking all
  • 00:02:59
    right well at some point in 2023
  • 00:03:02
    hopefully the Stars will align and we'll
  • 00:03:04
    see eth Bitcoin take the plunge and it
  • 00:03:07
    did but then it it took a lot longer to
  • 00:03:10
    get to my my targets right my my target
  • 00:03:12
    for eth Bitcoin was between 003 to 04
  • 00:03:17
    now when I said that back in 2021 or
  • 00:03:20
    2022 I I said it back over here in in
  • 00:03:23
    April just before the first drop I had
  • 00:03:26
    no idea that it would take until you
  • 00:03:28
    know January 2025 to reach the 03 level
  • 00:03:32
    right I had no idea it would take that
  • 00:03:34
    long last
  • 00:03:35
    cycle eth Bitcoin bottomed in the the
  • 00:03:39
    prehab year right in September of 2019
  • 00:03:42
    so if you were to equate that to this
  • 00:03:43
    cycle it would have implied a bottom in
  • 00:03:46
    September of 2023 but it's now the PO
  • 00:03:50
    having year and eth
  • 00:03:53
    Bitcoin never really truly found an
  • 00:03:56
    obvious bottom right had never really
  • 00:03:59
    found that
  • 00:04:00
    it's hard to predict tops and bottoms
  • 00:04:03
    exactly what you look for more so are
  • 00:04:06
    you know either a blow off top or a long
  • 00:04:09
    distribution phase right in the stock
  • 00:04:11
    market you know typically when it tops
  • 00:04:13
    it's a process right when it bottoms it
  • 00:04:16
    just happens but when it tops it's a a a
  • 00:04:20
    long process You could argue that crypto
  • 00:04:22
    is starting to exhibit some of those
  • 00:04:24
    similar behaviors especially when you
  • 00:04:26
    look at all Bitcoin pairs when they top
  • 00:04:29
    it's a process right and then there's
  • 00:04:31
    just sort of the slow bleed as you
  • 00:04:33
    convince more and more investors that
  • 00:04:36
    this is the ultimate Trend under the
  • 00:04:39
    current you know macroeconomic
  • 00:04:41
    conditions under the current monetary
  • 00:04:44
    policy
  • 00:04:45
    conditions so this video here was from
  • 00:04:49
    September of 2019 we talked about it was
  • 00:04:51
    being severely undervalued it was
  • 00:04:53
    basically right here right and I look
  • 00:04:56
    back on that and I'm like you know maybe
  • 00:04:58
    I got lucky one of the reasons I
  • 00:05:00
    launched my channel in 2019 was because
  • 00:05:04
    I thought that eth Bitcoin was basically
  • 00:05:07
    at the bottom and I just felt like it
  • 00:05:09
    was a really great opportunity at that
  • 00:05:12
    point you know and I I maybe I got lucky
  • 00:05:16
    you know it's not like I knew the Fed
  • 00:05:17
    was going to print $6 trillion dollar
  • 00:05:19
    but hey it worked out and then we got up
  • 00:05:22
    here and we we talked about it going to
  • 00:05:24
    the .3 to 04 range and no one it felt
  • 00:05:29
    like no one would believe it you know
  • 00:05:31
    even though it seemed like the most
  • 00:05:33
    obvious outcome now when you look at it
  • 00:05:36
    objectively you can see that it was
  • 00:05:38
    always going to happen um and we we
  • 00:05:42
    talked a lot about that right in terms
  • 00:05:44
    of each cycle you get your first top and
  • 00:05:48
    then a lower high right your first top
  • 00:05:51
    and then a lower high your first top and
  • 00:05:53
    then a lower high and in between those
  • 00:05:56
    two tops you get a range low low right a
  • 00:06:00
    range low that's set and eth Bitcoin
  • 00:06:03
    then spins a long time above that range
  • 00:06:06
    low but it does eventually fade right
  • 00:06:10
    eventually it breaks beneath the range
  • 00:06:12
    low now in
  • 00:06:16
    2016 it bled about 50% about 50% in 20
  • 00:06:22
    after it broke the range low in 2019
  • 00:06:25
    after I broke the range low it bled
  • 00:06:27
    about 30% so far
  • 00:06:30
    this time ever since it broke this range
  • 00:06:32
    low right here at
  • 00:06:38
    0049 it's now down about 36% right so
  • 00:06:43
    basically almost 40% so right now is
  • 00:06:45
    it's kind of just in between the draw
  • 00:06:48
    down that you saw here after breaking
  • 00:06:50
    support and the draw down that you saw
  • 00:06:52
    here after breaking support right it's
  • 00:06:54
    kind of in between it's not 30 it's not
  • 00:06:57
    50 it's kind of in between
  • 00:07:00
    I contend that maybe the reason this one
  • 00:07:02
    was only 30 was because this was already
  • 00:07:04
    a more massive drop right
  • 00:07:08
    now back in
  • 00:07:10
    2022 when we talked about eth Bitcoin
  • 00:07:13
    going to as you know potentially as low
  • 00:07:16
    as
  • 00:07:17
    03 it's hard to convince anyone that
  • 00:07:20
    that was what's going to happen right it
  • 00:07:21
    was really hard to convince anyone and
  • 00:07:24
    and I even got you know I went in
  • 00:07:26
    through these these phases during the
  • 00:07:28
    cycle I'm like why am I even trying to
  • 00:07:29
    to convince people it doesn't really
  • 00:07:30
    seem like people want to know want to be
  • 00:07:32
    convinced and I'm just arguing with
  • 00:07:34
    people that are never going to to see it
  • 00:07:36
    through my through my view um but you
  • 00:07:39
    know I still Tred to make as many videos
  • 00:07:41
    as I could bear to to talk about this
  • 00:07:43
    valuation and try to get people on the
  • 00:07:45
    right side of it right to say look you
  • 00:07:46
    know eth is good I'm not saying there's
  • 00:07:48
    anything wrong with it it's just going
  • 00:07:50
    to bleed against Bitcoin for a while
  • 00:07:51
    until monetary policy changes
  • 00:07:54
    now here's the thing eth Bitcoin has
  • 00:07:59
    gone
  • 00:08:00
    to kind of the lower part of the target
  • 00:08:02
    range you know I mean I said
  • 00:08:04
    03 and here we are at 03 and it I mean
  • 00:08:09
    again it it kind of feels like the exact
  • 00:08:12
    opposite of
  • 00:08:14
    2022 over
  • 00:08:16
    here I couldn't convince anyone that it
  • 00:08:19
    was going to drop this far but
  • 00:08:23
    now I'm almost you know I'm more worried
  • 00:08:26
    that I'm going to appear you know it's
  • 00:08:29
    going to be the opposite right where I'm
  • 00:08:32
    going to say I think it's going to go up
  • 00:08:34
    at some point this year good amount but
  • 00:08:37
    no one's going to believe it and and and
  • 00:08:39
    people are just going to say well you
  • 00:08:41
    know that's great and Allin
  • 00:08:43
    but what about the Bitcoin dominance
  • 00:08:46
    train and it's tough for me because I
  • 00:08:51
    love the Bitcoin dominance train how I
  • 00:08:52
    just put out a video an hour video
  • 00:08:54
    yesterday on it you know um it's the
  • 00:08:56
    easiest train to be on to to just put on
  • 00:08:59
    your Maxi had and and and to just ride
  • 00:09:02
    that Maxi train for as long as you
  • 00:09:05
    possibly can and for me I just said well
  • 00:09:07
    ride it until 60% dominance at the very
  • 00:09:10
    least you know and and that it's
  • 00:09:12
    possible that eth Bitcoin could drop
  • 00:09:15
    until QT ends quantitative tightening
  • 00:09:19
    now frankly I'm surprised that we're in
  • 00:09:22
    January 2025 and quantitative tightening
  • 00:09:25
    hasn't actually ended now if this is the
  • 00:09:28
    first video you're watching on this
  • 00:09:29
    Channel just to bring you up to speed
  • 00:09:31
    one of the reasons why I thought that
  • 00:09:33
    eth Bitcoin would bleed was because we
  • 00:09:36
    entered into quantitative tightening and
  • 00:09:38
    when that happens you generally see
  • 00:09:40
    higher risk assets bleed to lower risk
  • 00:09:43
    assets which is exactly what's been
  • 00:09:45
    happening and it's exactly what happened
  • 00:09:47
    last cycle but one of the things you'll
  • 00:09:48
    notice last cycle is that eth Bitcoin
  • 00:09:51
    bottomed when QT ended right exactly
  • 00:09:56
    that's exactly when it bottomed you know
  • 00:10:00
    so for me I look at at at this chart and
  • 00:10:04
    I say well from a sort of like a price
  • 00:10:07
    prediction point of view it made it to
  • 00:10:10
    my target a
  • 00:10:11
    03 but back over here in 2022 when it
  • 00:10:17
    was 008 and then 85 when I told people
  • 00:10:20
    was heading down
  • 00:10:21
    here was falling on De years you know
  • 00:10:25
    and it took a while right I mean it's
  • 00:10:27
    not like it happened overnight it took a
  • 00:10:28
    while it dropped and then it rallied
  • 00:10:30
    back up and then it just was a slow
  • 00:10:33
    painful bleed and every single rally you
  • 00:10:36
    know it it just drew it out but in my
  • 00:10:40
    mind I knew this was the inevitable
  • 00:10:41
    outcome regardless of all these rallies
  • 00:10:43
    that made people think that it had
  • 00:10:45
    turned
  • 00:10:47
    around but now I'm at the point
  • 00:10:51
    where this seems like it's good enough
  • 00:10:54
    you know and the 03 level to me came
  • 00:10:58
    because of
  • 00:11:00
    returning back to where the bubble began
  • 00:11:03
    that doesn't mean it can't go below it
  • 00:11:06
    also another thing that coincidentally
  • 00:11:09
    lines up with
  • 00:11:10
    03 um
  • 00:11:14
    is this thing the the Fib retracement so
  • 00:11:17
    it's it's a little out there but just
  • 00:11:19
    bear with me if you take a fib
  • 00:11:22
    retracement on this first
  • 00:11:24
    cycle you'll actually notice that eth
  • 00:11:27
    Bitcoin this cycle topped out at the
  • 00:11:30
    2618 and the range low was the
  • 00:11:34
    1.618 and then it went back up to the
  • 00:11:37
    2.68 and then it got back down to the
  • 00:11:39
    range low and spent a while trying to
  • 00:11:42
    hold on to the 1.618 and did not hold it
  • 00:11:45
    and then it came back down to the 2016
  • 00:11:48
    all-time
  • 00:11:50
    high the
  • 00:11:53
    786 from that level is
  • 00:11:56
    .03 right so that was another reason I
  • 00:11:59
    thought thought hey 03 could be could be
  • 00:12:01
    reasonable the 618 would all be all the
  • 00:12:04
    way down at 025 now I got to be honest
  • 00:12:08
    right I don't really think it needs to
  • 00:12:09
    go that low and if you had if you had
  • 00:12:12
    told me in uh 2022 that we'd be sitting
  • 00:12:15
    at
  • 00:12:16
    03 and and you'd have all these people
  • 00:12:18
    that used to be insanely bullish on it
  • 00:12:20
    at 0.5 now just dunking on it non-stop
  • 00:12:22
    I'd be I'd probably be like well it's
  • 00:12:24
    probably pretty undervalued and I got to
  • 00:12:26
    be honest I mean I think it is under
  • 00:12:29
    valued at 03 but the hard the hard part
  • 00:12:32
    about markets is that they can be
  • 00:12:35
    undervalued for a long time they can be
  • 00:12:38
    overvalued for a long time right I mean
  • 00:12:40
    to me I thought 008 was really
  • 00:12:43
    overvalued over here and it turns out it
  • 00:12:47
    was a it was the right view to have but
  • 00:12:50
    you can see it just took a long time for
  • 00:12:52
    the market to accept that it was
  • 00:12:55
    overvalued now I I I think it's kind of
  • 00:12:57
    the reverse where it's it's like I think
  • 00:13:00
    that
  • 00:13:01
    003 is undervalued but that doesn't mean
  • 00:13:05
    that it has to reverse course
  • 00:13:06
    immediately you know I mean I I'm
  • 00:13:09
    sitting here thinking like well if if if
  • 00:13:11
    what we really need is quantitative
  • 00:13:13
    easing or maybe we just need QT to end
  • 00:13:17
    then it could just continue on this path
  • 00:13:19
    until QT actually ends and then you
  • 00:13:22
    could argue the more favorable approach
  • 00:13:25
    could just be to see it end but at the
  • 00:13:29
    the same time we've seen some alt coins
  • 00:13:32
    get really big rallies even though QT
  • 00:13:34
    never ended but only certain ones most
  • 00:13:36
    of them continue to bleed with
  • 00:13:39
    eth so my thought process is this right
  • 00:13:42
    my thought process is this going back to
  • 00:13:45
    the video in 2019 where I said eth
  • 00:13:47
    Bitcoin is severely
  • 00:13:49
    undervalued today feels like that to me
  • 00:13:53
    right it it feels like it it's similar
  • 00:13:56
    that it's severely undervalued
  • 00:13:59
    against
  • 00:14:00
    Bitcoin the thing about that
  • 00:14:03
    video when I made it quantitative easing
  • 00:14:07
    had just
  • 00:14:09
    begun
  • 00:14:11
    today we still don't have that
  • 00:14:15
    now there's a Fed meeting next week
  • 00:14:18
    right there's a Fed meeting next week so
  • 00:14:22
    maybe the Stars will align for eth
  • 00:14:25
    Bitcoin right where where it it will
  • 00:14:27
    bottom out whenever the FED goes from
  • 00:14:30
    quantitative tight were they in
  • 00:14:32
    quantitative tightening and if you look
  • 00:14:34
    at at at sort of the uh the calendar
  • 00:14:36
    here obviously they're not they're very
  • 00:14:39
    likely not going to cut and they really
  • 00:14:41
    shouldn't cut with inflation starting to
  • 00:14:43
    go back up but maybe one of the tools
  • 00:14:46
    they'll start to use because they don't
  • 00:14:48
    want to keep cutting is the balance
  • 00:14:50
    sheet tool now the meeting is on January
  • 00:14:52
    29th which is you know four days from
  • 00:14:55
    now so if pal comes out and says that
  • 00:15:00
    quantitative tightening is over if he
  • 00:15:04
    comes out and says
  • 00:15:06
    that then I would say there is an
  • 00:15:10
    extremely high
  • 00:15:12
    chance that eth Bitcoin is bottoming at
  • 00:15:15
    03 extremely
  • 00:15:18
    high if he comes out and
  • 00:15:22
    says to hell with the Deens you know you
  • 00:15:25
    guys continue to to to yell and scream
  • 00:15:28
    at each other as you fight over you know
  • 00:15:30
    the different
  • 00:15:31
    cryptocurrencies and and we're not
  • 00:15:33
    ending
  • 00:15:34
    QT you know it's always possible that it
  • 00:15:38
    could it could just keep going down and
  • 00:15:40
    it doesn't mean that it's you know not
  • 00:15:42
    valuable it just means that it's a
  • 00:15:45
    subject of the monetary policy of the
  • 00:15:48
    time
  • 00:15:50
    right so for me when I think about it
  • 00:15:53
    it's not you know it's not about
  • 00:15:56
    predicting exactly when the bottom is I
  • 00:15:58
    mean it's at my the the range low of my
  • 00:16:00
    target range 03 but it's about saying
  • 00:16:03
    you know I
  • 00:16:04
    mean until QT ends there's always a
  • 00:16:08
    chance it could go
  • 00:16:10
    lower because the markets can be
  • 00:16:12
    irrational for a long time you know and
  • 00:16:14
    I think like if you think back to
  • 00:16:16
    2022 when when you know eth Bitcoin was
  • 00:16:19
    at 85 and everyone was like well you've
  • 00:16:21
    got the merge you've got this the the
  • 00:16:24
    the the deflationary aspect going on um
  • 00:16:27
    you know there's no way it could drop to
  • 00:16:29
    003
  • 00:16:31
    again what pained me the most was like I
  • 00:16:35
    I I saw what they saw right I I I knew
  • 00:16:37
    the narrative it's not like I don't know
  • 00:16:39
    I didn't know it's not like I didn't
  • 00:16:40
    know that they were going to go to proof
  • 00:16:41
    of stake it's not like I didn't know
  • 00:16:42
    that the deflationary aspect was going
  • 00:16:44
    to affect things it was that in my mind
  • 00:16:47
    none of it mattered because we weren't
  • 00:16:49
    in the monetary policy regime where it
  • 00:16:52
    would matter I think all of it's
  • 00:16:55
    important I do it's just that in you get
  • 00:16:59
    to the appropriate monetary policy the
  • 00:17:02
    market isn't going to think it's
  • 00:17:03
    important even though it I think it is
  • 00:17:06
    it's just that and and that why I was
  • 00:17:08
    trying to explain people back then it's
  • 00:17:09
    not about that I think it should go
  • 00:17:11
    there because of you know it's because
  • 00:17:13
    of that's the way it is it's more so
  • 00:17:15
    like it's just monetary policy thing and
  • 00:17:17
    I I do consider ethereum to be a higher
  • 00:17:19
    risk asset than Bitcoin I do um now you
  • 00:17:24
    see why right now you see why
  • 00:17:29
    the one thing that I I spent a lot of
  • 00:17:30
    time talking about yesterday though with
  • 00:17:33
    you know with with with Bitcoin
  • 00:17:35
    dominance and whatnot was you know how
  • 00:17:38
    do you get how do you get QE or how do
  • 00:17:41
    you at least get the end of
  • 00:17:43
    QT now I guess it's theoretically
  • 00:17:46
    possible to get it without a big drop in
  • 00:17:49
    the market right it's possible um there
  • 00:17:52
    could be political pressures applied uh
  • 00:17:56
    that potentially make the FED pivot
  • 00:17:58
    sooner than the other wise would have
  • 00:17:59
    from quantitative tightening to
  • 00:18:01
    quantitative easing and I think it makes
  • 00:18:02
    sense to be prepared for that
  • 00:18:04
    outcome however if the FED does not
  • 00:18:08
    succumb to political pressures and they
  • 00:18:11
    truly stay the course then you always
  • 00:18:14
    run the
  • 00:18:15
    risk of a landing at some point
  • 00:18:19
    right
  • 00:18:22
    now the hard part about this is that in
  • 00:18:26
    order for QE to really return turn
  • 00:18:29
    during an inflationary cycle you would
  • 00:18:33
    have to think that something bad would
  • 00:18:35
    have to happen right some bad data print
  • 00:18:38
    right something at a left field that no
  • 00:18:41
    one's expecting right like where the
  • 00:18:42
    unemployment rate two two ways it could
  • 00:18:45
    actually work actually you know I was
  • 00:18:47
    thinking about this two ways it could
  • 00:18:48
    actually work one way is it just shoots
  • 00:18:50
    up right where you know it's been at
  • 00:18:53
    like 41 42 43 and then we just wake up
  • 00:18:56
    one morning on a Friday and and the
  • 00:18:59
    first week of the month and it's at like
  • 00:19:01
    45 or something ridiculous right
  • 00:19:04
    something just absolutely insane that no
  • 00:19:06
    one is thinking about that's one way you
  • 00:19:08
    could get
  • 00:19:09
    it the other way that you could get it
  • 00:19:13
    is if it drops Like a Rock like let's
  • 00:19:15
    say it gives you an insane print of like
  • 00:19:19
    a three number like it starts with a
  • 00:19:21
    three again the reason why that could be
  • 00:19:23
    an issue is be not because of a
  • 00:19:25
    recession right I mean you know that
  • 00:19:27
    would be the opposite it would be the
  • 00:19:28
    unpl R's going down it means there's not
  • 00:19:30
    a recession but the the the reason why
  • 00:19:33
    it could become an issue is because it
  • 00:19:35
    would send the long the the long end of
  • 00:19:37
    the Y curve absolutely flying higher
  • 00:19:40
    right absolutely flying higher and and
  • 00:19:42
    you don't want that either really
  • 00:19:45
    um but it I mean it seems like there
  • 00:19:48
    there has to I mean there doesn't have
  • 00:19:49
    to be right but you would you would
  • 00:19:50
    think that if if the FED is truly not
  • 00:19:53
    dependent and they're not going to
  • 00:19:54
    succumb to political pressures you would
  • 00:19:57
    think that there'd have to be some type
  • 00:19:58
    of of event to create a reason to
  • 00:20:03
    transition from quantitative tightening
  • 00:20:04
    to quantitative easing something who
  • 00:20:07
    knows what that's going to be but you
  • 00:20:09
    would think that there would need to be
  • 00:20:12
    something
  • 00:20:14
    now there's one thing I've I've looked
  • 00:20:18
    at probably a little too compulsively if
  • 00:20:21
    we're being honest with each other and I
  • 00:20:22
    think I can be honest with you guys um
  • 00:20:26
    it's this website right it's ultrasound
  • 00:20:27
    money website uh
  • 00:20:29
    and and I have followed this so much to
  • 00:20:34
    understand like the mechanics of of you
  • 00:20:37
    know when when is it getting burned how
  • 00:20:39
    quickly I've spent way too much time
  • 00:20:42
    looking at this stuff but it was because
  • 00:20:44
    of this that helped me to stay bullish
  • 00:20:48
    on bitcoin dominance and you know stay
  • 00:20:51
    on the right side of the eth Bitcoin
  • 00:20:52
    trade for at least a majority hopefully
  • 00:20:55
    a majority at the time and the reason
  • 00:20:58
    I've tracked this is because back in
  • 00:21:01
    March I know and I guess back in in in
  • 00:21:04
    March and April I noticed that if you
  • 00:21:06
    look okay so here's the merge and and as
  • 00:21:09
    the merge happened initially there was
  • 00:21:12
    this huge deflationary aspect of it
  • 00:21:14
    where the supply of eth was getting
  • 00:21:15
    burned but then starting in April of
  • 00:21:19
    2024 it started to go back up meaning
  • 00:21:23
    the demand just simply wasn't enough to
  • 00:21:27
    offset
  • 00:21:29
    right the supply the the the the supply
  • 00:21:31
    the new Supply and what's ended up
  • 00:21:34
    happening is the supply has started
  • 00:21:36
    going up again right it bottomed out
  • 00:21:38
    around Nega 455,000 since the merge and
  • 00:21:42
    ever since then it's been increasing now
  • 00:21:45
    I have thought for a long time that
  • 00:21:47
    there's going to be some type of event
  • 00:21:51
    whenever this crosses zero and I
  • 00:21:54
    mentioned this back in April and I think
  • 00:21:56
    I also mentioned it in August on twit
  • 00:21:59
    but I talked about this back then that
  • 00:22:00
    there there could be some type of
  • 00:22:04
    transition in monetary policy around the
  • 00:22:08
    time and I know this sounds crazy right
  • 00:22:10
    but it's just something I've thought
  • 00:22:12
    that might happen right some change in
  • 00:22:13
    monetary policy around the time that
  • 00:22:17
    this crosses zero and maybe it would
  • 00:22:20
    imply that the excess in the system
  • 00:22:24
    excess liquidity excess in the labor
  • 00:22:27
    market just excess is gone and now the
  • 00:22:32
    new Administration isn't dealing with
  • 00:22:35
    excess anymore they're dealing with a
  • 00:22:39
    pretty loose labor market that
  • 00:22:42
    needs liquidity and and and it needs you
  • 00:22:45
    know something to keep it
  • 00:22:48
    going I just wonder if when this crosses
  • 00:22:51
    zero now when will it cross
  • 00:22:53
    zero I'm glad you asked well if you look
  • 00:22:57
    at it on a daily time frame right now
  • 00:22:59
    the supply of eth is increasing by about
  • 00:23:01
    1,500 eth per day now it's subject to
  • 00:23:05
    change every day because some of you DG
  • 00:23:07
    get a little bit more excited on some
  • 00:23:09
    days than others therefore the gas fees
  • 00:23:10
    go up but let's just say it's about
  • 00:23:12
    1,500 eth a day I've watched it a lot
  • 00:23:15
    the last few weeks some days it's closer
  • 00:23:16
    to a th000 some days it's closer to
  • 00:23:18
    2,000 every once in a while you'll get a
  • 00:23:21
    day where it's negative 2,000 because
  • 00:23:22
    people are just going insane on the
  • 00:23:24
    recent batch of meme coins um but you
  • 00:23:27
    know if you look at it over the last 7
  • 00:23:28
    days you can see that that sort of that
  • 00:23:30
    recent drop around some of those mem
  • 00:23:32
    coin launches but over the last 30 days
  • 00:23:36
    the supply be has gone up by about
  • 00:23:38
    42,000 okay so the implication of that
  • 00:23:41
    is that within the next 30
  • 00:23:43
    days there's a chance that this crosses
  • 00:23:47
    zero right I mean if you think about it
  • 00:23:50
    it might only take a couple of weeks
  • 00:23:52
    from now before this crosses
  • 00:23:55
    zero so maybe the FED doesn't stop Quant
  • 00:23:58
    ative tightening at the January meeting
  • 00:24:00
    maybe they don't maybe they stop it at
  • 00:24:02
    the February meeting maybe there's
  • 00:24:03
    something that happens between January
  • 00:24:05
    and February that causes them to make
  • 00:24:08
    that
  • 00:24:10
    pivot keep this in mind watch this watch
  • 00:24:13
    this to see if anything happens as it
  • 00:24:15
    crosses
  • 00:24:16
    zero now as it you know going back to
  • 00:24:19
    eth
  • 00:24:21
    bitcoin the easiest way to get out of
  • 00:24:24
    this dilemma that eth Bitcoin is in in
  • 00:24:27
    my view
  • 00:24:28
    would be to see some type of volatile
  • 00:24:31
    Market
  • 00:24:32
    event that gets the FED moving in the
  • 00:24:35
    other direction right could also be a an
  • 00:24:39
    inflation print that drops a lot right
  • 00:24:42
    it drops say down to 25 or 24 and making
  • 00:24:45
    them realize they don't need to worry
  • 00:24:46
    about inflation going back up but I'll
  • 00:24:49
    believe it when I see it because the
  • 00:24:50
    last three months inflation has been
  • 00:24:51
    going back
  • 00:24:52
    up do you need an event to
  • 00:24:56
    happen that brings us to ethiop USD now
  • 00:24:59
    ethusd has been a thorn in my side this
  • 00:25:02
    cycle because you know I was just on the
  • 00:25:05
    Bitcoin dominance train you know I've
  • 00:25:08
    been bearish on ethusd primarily because
  • 00:25:10
    I've been bearish on eth bitcoin but as
  • 00:25:12
    I said if Bitcoin goes up it's going to
  • 00:25:14
    drag eth with it it just won't eth isn't
  • 00:25:17
    going to go up nearly as much and you
  • 00:25:19
    know it's like how do you how do you how
  • 00:25:20
    do you get eth out of this Zone it's
  • 00:25:23
    been essentially allergic to
  • 00:25:25
    4K every time it goes up to it and not
  • 00:25:28
    only that not only that but every time
  • 00:25:31
    that eth hits 4K the whole Market just
  • 00:25:35
    tanks right every single time Market
  • 00:25:38
    tanks when e hits 4K you know it
  • 00:25:40
    happened in happened in
  • 00:25:43
    March happened in in it started
  • 00:25:45
    happening here in June and then it
  • 00:25:47
    happened again in in December where
  • 00:25:48
    Bitcoin just kind of stalled out for a
  • 00:25:50
    couple of months um now here's the thing
  • 00:25:54
    there's there's two ways I think eth
  • 00:25:56
    gets out of this pickle that it's in
  • 00:25:59
    especially as it relates to the E
  • 00:26:00
    Bitcoin
  • 00:26:01
    pair option number one is the more
  • 00:26:04
    optimistic way so we'll cover it first
  • 00:26:05
    since I know a lot of you guys are
  • 00:26:09
    optimists let's say it holds the bull
  • 00:26:12
    market support band let's say it holds
  • 00:26:16
    okay if it holds and the FED becomes
  • 00:26:20
    very accommodative over the next couple
  • 00:26:23
    of months it's
  • 00:26:25
    possible that eth IES back up without
  • 00:26:30
    having to see further
  • 00:26:32
    downside
  • 00:26:36
    possible the only way I could see that
  • 00:26:38
    happening is if not the only way but the
  • 00:26:41
    main way I could see it happening is if
  • 00:26:43
    the new Administration applies enough
  • 00:26:45
    political pressure to get the FED to
  • 00:26:48
    Pivot before they
  • 00:26:50
    should if that happens then there's
  • 00:26:53
    certainly a chance that eth makes the
  • 00:26:56
    run back up to 4K and maybe even to new
  • 00:26:58
    alltime highs without having to see
  • 00:27:00
    further
  • 00:27:01
    downside however if pow says next week
  • 00:27:07
    that QT is not
  • 00:27:09
    ending again right and now we're in the
  • 00:27:12
    post having year if he says it's still
  • 00:27:15
    not
  • 00:27:17
    ending then there's always a chance you
  • 00:27:20
    get one last
  • 00:27:22
    drop okay now I'll be clear if there is
  • 00:27:26
    a drop if there is an another drop I
  • 00:27:29
    think that'll be it before new alltime
  • 00:27:32
    highs
  • 00:27:33
    okay there's
  • 00:27:36
    um again I mean know if you follow me
  • 00:27:39
    for a long
  • 00:27:41
    time I get some things right I get some
  • 00:27:43
    things wrong one of the things I've been
  • 00:27:46
    wrong about It's always important in
  • 00:27:48
    exercise right and if you're new you
  • 00:27:49
    already know what I'm going to say or if
  • 00:27:50
    you're not new if you've been here for a
  • 00:27:51
    while you already know what I'm going to
  • 00:27:52
    say but I'll say it for the sake of
  • 00:27:54
    people that are new one of the things I
  • 00:27:55
    notice is that you start watching a
  • 00:27:57
    YouTuber and and they make a couple of
  • 00:27:59
    good predictions um and then you think
  • 00:28:01
    they just know everything you're like oh
  • 00:28:02
    well this guy this guy surely knows you
  • 00:28:04
    know he's got a crystal ball um but I'll
  • 00:28:06
    let you in a little secret I don't and
  • 00:28:08
    if you think that I will disappoint you
  • 00:28:10
    very very soon so let me go ahead and
  • 00:28:11
    tell you something I have been wrong
  • 00:28:13
    about so that we you know get away with
  • 00:28:15
    do away with the illusion that I won't
  • 00:28:17
    be wrong because I will um this is
  • 00:28:20
    something I've been wrong about this
  • 00:28:21
    cycle right I mean I I thought eth would
  • 00:28:23
    quote unquote go home this cycle and I
  • 00:28:26
    home essentially was this fit to this
  • 00:28:28
    logarithmic you know these these quote
  • 00:28:30
    unquote non-bubble data points the lower
  • 00:28:33
    logarithmic aggression trend line I
  • 00:28:35
    thought that was going to
  • 00:28:36
    happen and it never did right it just it
  • 00:28:40
    simply never happened and I'm like well
  • 00:28:42
    I guess it's a cycle that it never went
  • 00:28:45
    home right and I thought I thought it
  • 00:28:49
    could go down there without having a
  • 00:28:52
    recession it turns out I think I might
  • 00:28:54
    have been wrong about that because it
  • 00:28:56
    never went down there and never had a
  • 00:28:58
    recession you know
  • 00:29:01
    um
  • 00:29:03
    so if the optimistic view is right then
  • 00:29:06
    this is still irrelevant right it's
  • 00:29:09
    still irrelevant if the optimistic view
  • 00:29:11
    is right and eth can hold above the
  • 00:29:13
    bullmark support pad in fact what I
  • 00:29:15
    would say is this as long as eth is
  • 00:29:18
    above the 20we
  • 00:29:20
    SMA which is currently at a little over
  • 00:29:23
    $3,000 let's just say it like this as
  • 00:29:25
    long as eth is above 3K then
  • 00:29:29
    I think it you know slightly favors the
  • 00:29:32
    more optimistic view right if eth drops
  • 00:29:35
    below the bull market support
  • 00:29:37
    ban and it's below 3K then I I think it
  • 00:29:40
    would actually favor The View I'm about
  • 00:29:42
    to talk about right now again if you've
  • 00:29:45
    been watching this channel you've heard
  • 00:29:46
    me say it a thousand times it hasn't
  • 00:29:48
    happened and and that's why I I would
  • 00:29:51
    say you know with eth Bitcoin at
  • 00:29:53
    003 you're not going to find me you know
  • 00:29:56
    staying bearish on on eth bitcoin right
  • 00:29:59
    I think it will go up I don't know
  • 00:30:01
    exactly when the Bottom's going to be
  • 00:30:02
    but I do think it will go up sometime
  • 00:30:05
    this year and I think whenever the turn
  • 00:30:06
    comes I think it'll be a big bounce um
  • 00:30:09
    but if ethusd loses the 20we moving
  • 00:30:14
    average if it loses
  • 00:30:16
    it then you could get one final drop now
  • 00:30:21
    one of the things to think about here
  • 00:30:25
    is the Bank of Japan right like what is
  • 00:30:28
    he talking about if you look at Japan
  • 00:30:32
    interest rates you'll notice that we've
  • 00:30:35
    had three over the last
  • 00:30:37
    year the first one was in March the
  • 00:30:41
    second one was in
  • 00:30:44
    July the third one was in
  • 00:30:49
    January
  • 00:30:52
    March
  • 00:30:54
    July January March July January
  • 00:30:59
    March July January go to
  • 00:31:05
    ethusd when did it bottom here
  • 00:31:09
    April so Bank of Japan cut or the bank
  • 00:31:12
    of Japan raised in
  • 00:31:13
    March Wick low in April when was the
  • 00:31:17
    next rate hike was in July when was the
  • 00:31:20
    next capitulation Wick it was in August
  • 00:31:24
    right so you basically what you had was
  • 00:31:28
    you had the the the boj the bank of
  • 00:31:32
    Japan raising rates in
  • 00:31:35
    March and July and now
  • 00:31:40
    January and you had capitulation
  • 00:31:44
    Wicks by
  • 00:31:47
    eth in
  • 00:31:49
    April
  • 00:31:51
    August February I don't know right I'm
  • 00:31:54
    just saying if if there has to be an
  • 00:31:57
    event
  • 00:31:58
    to get us to
  • 00:31:59
    QE seems like this is it now there might
  • 00:32:03
    not have to be again if if pal comes out
  • 00:32:05
    next week and he just says no we're not
  • 00:32:08
    we're not going to QE
  • 00:32:10
    yet I wonder if it would
  • 00:32:13
    trigger some you know some event um I
  • 00:32:17
    just know that in March the bank of
  • 00:32:20
    Japan raised rates and at first everyone
  • 00:32:25
    thought it was fine and nothing was
  • 00:32:27
    going to happen and and then before we
  • 00:32:28
    knew it the whole crypto Market was
  • 00:32:30
    dropping and then in July they raised
  • 00:32:33
    rates and for a little while it was okay
  • 00:32:36
    and the market was holding on and then
  • 00:32:38
    August came and all hell broke loose and
  • 00:32:40
    now it's kind of the same thing right
  • 00:32:41
    it's now it's January they just raised
  • 00:32:43
    rates
  • 00:32:45
    yesterday and I'm just wondering you
  • 00:32:48
    know February would also
  • 00:32:51
    correspond to likely when the eth supply
  • 00:32:56
    reaches the pre-merge supply
  • 00:32:58
    February of
  • 00:33:01
    2025 it's kind of interesting right I
  • 00:33:03
    it's kind of
  • 00:33:04
    interesting
  • 00:33:06
    now
  • 00:33:08
    if eth if there is a a drop in the
  • 00:33:12
    market and eth does fall below the
  • 00:33:15
    bullmark sport band then I think it
  • 00:33:17
    would enter into its final drop before a
  • 00:33:21
    new all-time high that's what I think
  • 00:33:24
    okay I haven't given up on eth I mean I
  • 00:33:27
    I do think it will go to to new alltime
  • 00:33:30
    Highs but there's always a chance it has
  • 00:33:33
    to get one more drop now if if I can
  • 00:33:36
    find evidence next week in in what
  • 00:33:38
    Powell is saying and whatnot that it
  • 00:33:40
    seems like maybe we don't need to get
  • 00:33:41
    that drop then I'll be I'll be come here
  • 00:33:45
    as quickly as I can and say you know it
  • 00:33:46
    looks like it's holding support here
  • 00:33:49
    okay so I'm not going to try to hold on
  • 00:33:51
    to this narrative for longer than I have
  • 00:33:52
    to at this point you know and it's one
  • 00:33:54
    of those things where I'm just putting
  • 00:33:55
    it out there because everyone was
  • 00:33:56
    wondering what the hell's going on with
  • 00:33:58
    eth why is it just stuck below 4K and I
  • 00:34:00
    keep thinking the reason might just be
  • 00:34:02
    because it never got that drop like it
  • 00:34:04
    never it never actually got that drop um
  • 00:34:07
    now let's hope I think look over the
  • 00:34:09
    Long Haul it's better to be an optimist
  • 00:34:11
    than a pessimist so I don't really think
  • 00:34:13
    you should go into this like hoping that
  • 00:34:15
    it's going to get that drop I think you
  • 00:34:17
    should go into it hoping that it doesn't
  • 00:34:20
    and hoping that it just holds the
  • 00:34:21
    bullmark a sport fan as support and gets
  • 00:34:23
    that move higher I think it makes sense
  • 00:34:25
    to to to try to be more of an optimist
  • 00:34:27
    at the end of of the day the Bears sound
  • 00:34:29
    smart the Bulls make money and that's
  • 00:34:31
    the way the markets always work Bears
  • 00:34:32
    sound smart Bulls make money
  • 00:34:35
    um I'm just pointing it out there as as
  • 00:34:37
    a risk to sort of identify that you know
  • 00:34:41
    the last two times the bankage pan raise
  • 00:34:43
    rates eth had a capitulation the
  • 00:34:45
    following month and maybe the same thing
  • 00:34:48
    is about to happen again
  • 00:34:52
    right this
  • 00:34:54
    pattern we have seen once before it's
  • 00:34:57
    not exactly the same thing so I will
  • 00:34:59
    talk a little bit about some of the
  • 00:35:01
    differences um but the pattern is with
  • 00:35:05
    the S&P in the
  • 00:35:07
    1990s um I know you guys like it when I
  • 00:35:09
    dig up these analoges from just random
  • 00:35:11
    periods in the past where if you look at
  • 00:35:13
    the S&P in the 1990s there was also a
  • 00:35:15
    similar pattern where it had like a top
  • 00:35:18
    and then another top and then another
  • 00:35:19
    top where this final top actually had
  • 00:35:22
    sort of a double top that went above the
  • 00:35:25
    prior two tops you see that now if you
  • 00:35:28
    go to
  • 00:35:29
    ethusd and you look at it on a daily
  • 00:35:31
    time
  • 00:35:32
    frame what you'll notice is that
  • 00:35:36
    technically this these two tops right
  • 00:35:39
    here did go above this top from way back
  • 00:35:42
    over here and also you will notice that
  • 00:35:46
    it is a double
  • 00:35:48
    top just like the S&P right just like
  • 00:35:51
    that just on a smaller time
  • 00:35:53
    frame and what you'll notice is that the
  • 00:35:56
    S&P had a
  • 00:35:58
    drop and then it had a lower
  • 00:36:00
    low and I have to imagine everyone was
  • 00:36:03
    insanely bullish right there as it
  • 00:36:04
    looked like it was breaking out just
  • 00:36:07
    like with eth right here as it looked
  • 00:36:09
    like it was breaking out and then it
  • 00:36:10
    just came back down but guess what
  • 00:36:14
    happened it managed to drop into one
  • 00:36:18
    final lower low
  • 00:36:20
    now calling for
  • 00:36:22
    recessions is a Fool's errand right no
  • 00:36:26
    one knows EX ex actly when they're going
  • 00:36:28
    to happen and they're only obvious in
  • 00:36:29
    hindsight and and and usually they come
  • 00:36:31
    out a left field when no one's expecting
  • 00:36:33
    it the idea that everyone's going to
  • 00:36:34
    just predict it uh and be right about it
  • 00:36:37
    is nonsensical right the markets will
  • 00:36:39
    not most people will not be able to
  • 00:36:41
    predict Whenever there is a recession
  • 00:36:43
    normally what you do though is you wait
  • 00:36:45
    for at least the stock market to you
  • 00:36:47
    know go through a distribution phase
  • 00:36:48
    remember it's a
  • 00:36:51
    process you know capitulations an
  • 00:36:54
    instant the topping area is a long
  • 00:36:56
    process you look for that distribution
  • 00:36:59
    you look for the S&P not being able to
  • 00:37:01
    break a certain number over and over and
  • 00:37:02
    over again the market will give up and
  • 00:37:04
    then it drops and if it drops that leads
  • 00:37:06
    to layoffs layoffs lead to recession um
  • 00:37:09
    so this green shaded region is in fact a
  • 00:37:13
    recession that allowed the S&P to go to
  • 00:37:15
    one lower low now that lower low
  • 00:37:18
    probably scared a lot of people because
  • 00:37:20
    it was a recession but it didn't last
  • 00:37:22
    very long right I mean it didn't really
  • 00:37:24
    last that long um and and we were it was
  • 00:37:27
    back right up moving not that long later
  • 00:37:29
    and going to to new highs now one way
  • 00:37:32
    that this is different than ethereum is
  • 00:37:34
    as it was up here these were new
  • 00:37:35
    all-time Highs but for ethereum these
  • 00:37:38
    are not all-time highs right there was
  • 00:37:39
    another high way back over here so it's
  • 00:37:41
    not exactly the same chart but one way
  • 00:37:44
    it's really similar and I'm getting it's
  • 00:37:46
    kind of getting a little out there but
  • 00:37:48
    I'm just going to say it one way that
  • 00:37:49
    it's similar is if you go look at this
  • 00:37:53
    interesting
  • 00:37:55
    chart I believe it's us interest
  • 00:38:00
    rates minus the 2-year
  • 00:38:03
    yield now look at
  • 00:38:06
    this us interest rates minus the 2-year
  • 00:38:09
    yield have hit this trend
  • 00:38:13
    line three
  • 00:38:16
    times one time was just a few months
  • 00:38:22
    ago another
  • 00:38:25
    time financial crisis
  • 00:38:28
    the time before
  • 00:38:30
    that
  • 00:38:33
    1989 okay
  • 00:38:36
    so this by the way here was the dot
  • 00:38:39
    crash sometimes you get these Peaks
  • 00:38:41
    where you don't really have recessions
  • 00:38:44
    my point though is this my point though
  • 00:38:46
    is this is that when this happened in
  • 00:38:53
    1989 first of all the metric dropped no
  • 00:38:56
    recession right no
  • 00:38:58
    recession and then the recession finally
  • 00:39:02
    occurred right after after this drop
  • 00:39:05
    ended when it bounced that was the
  • 00:39:08
    recession right so I'm watching this and
  • 00:39:11
    I'm looking like is it is it going to
  • 00:39:14
    bounce again this is us interest rates
  • 00:39:16
    minus the two-year yield because when it
  • 00:39:19
    bounced in 1988 or in 1989 1990 that's
  • 00:39:23
    when you had a very brief recession
  • 00:39:27
    if you look at the S&P you can see what
  • 00:39:29
    I'm talking about it entered it in July
  • 00:39:32
    of 1990 and it dropped and then we came
  • 00:39:35
    out of
  • 00:39:36
    it it bottomed in October of 1990 if you
  • 00:39:40
    go back over here to look at
  • 00:39:42
    this that was as this metric was peing
  • 00:39:46
    that was the bottom of the S&P 500 as as
  • 00:39:49
    that metric bounced that's where the S&P
  • 00:39:51
    found that
  • 00:39:53
    bottom
  • 00:39:54
    so one idea
  • 00:39:57
    is that well first of all the optimistic
  • 00:40:00
    scenario would B be that political
  • 00:40:03
    pressures are applied by the way the
  • 00:40:04
    optimistic scenario is only good in the
  • 00:40:06
    short term because of the more longer
  • 00:40:08
    term we're going to pay the price more
  • 00:40:09
    than likely if they cut too soon if they
  • 00:40:11
    cut too much too soon and if they go
  • 00:40:12
    back to QE too soon we'll pray we'll pay
  • 00:40:14
    the price eventually if they do that but
  • 00:40:17
    let's just say they don't do that let's
  • 00:40:18
    let's say first day they do that then I
  • 00:40:20
    think eth does not have to get this
  • 00:40:23
    capitulation and and it can just go up
  • 00:40:25
    to a new back up to 4K and try again if
  • 00:40:28
    pow comes out next week and it's very
  • 00:40:31
    very doish I think that is a way that
  • 00:40:33
    eth could get that rally and finally
  • 00:40:35
    break through 4K if Powell comes out and
  • 00:40:37
    says all right we're going back to QE
  • 00:40:40
    and maybe we're even going to cut rates
  • 00:40:41
    again next month or in March then I
  • 00:40:44
    think you you could very well see eth
  • 00:40:46
    just go ahead and get that move but if
  • 00:40:48
    Powell just says no enough is enough and
  • 00:40:50
    they're not going to do it and he sends
  • 00:40:53
    us waiting another month or two let's
  • 00:40:55
    see when's the next meeting after after
  • 00:40:57
    the next one after the one's coming up
  • 00:40:59
    it's it's not till March March 19th so
  • 00:41:02
    if pal just comes out and says no and
  • 00:41:05
    that he's he's not going to to begin QB
  • 00:41:09
    then I I wonder if that will then sort
  • 00:41:11
    of finalize that the devaluation of of
  • 00:41:14
    eth Bitcoin um into some major event
  • 00:41:18
    right that occurs that then causes you
  • 00:41:20
    know a drop in the market so then leads
  • 00:41:21
    to the introduction of QE potentially in
  • 00:41:24
    in March
  • 00:41:26
    um what's interesting is if you look at
  • 00:41:28
    the 2016 cycle you know I've looked at
  • 00:41:31
    this a
  • 00:41:32
    lot eth made new all-time
  • 00:41:35
    highs in
  • 00:41:38
    March
  • 00:41:41
    so you could have I mean you could even
  • 00:41:43
    have a drop and then it still just get
  • 00:41:45
    right out of it a month later or maybe
  • 00:41:47
    maybe we just hold support at the bull
  • 00:41:49
    market support band and it just goes and
  • 00:41:51
    puts a new alltime highs in March if the
  • 00:41:53
    political pressure is applied but I'm
  • 00:41:55
    just putting this scenario out there so
  • 00:41:59
    you can kind of see that there's two
  • 00:42:01
    different paths and I don't know which
  • 00:42:03
    one is going to play out I think it
  • 00:42:06
    depends on what the FED does frankly I
  • 00:42:09
    really do I I if I knew what Powell was
  • 00:42:12
    going to do next week I would be more
  • 00:42:15
    confident right if I knew that they were
  • 00:42:17
    going to end quantitative tightening
  • 00:42:19
    next week I would just be saying you
  • 00:42:21
    know really really really really good
  • 00:42:23
    chance that eth Bitcoin is bottoming at
  • 00:42:25
    just .3 right if I knew for a fact they
  • 00:42:27
    were going to end quantitative
  • 00:42:28
    tightening next week but I don't know
  • 00:42:32
    and um that's the beauty of the market
  • 00:42:34
    right I mean no one really knows what's
  • 00:42:36
    going to happen so I will say
  • 00:42:40
    this try to be optimistic
  • 00:42:43
    right and and and and and view it
  • 00:42:46
    through an optimistic lens because over
  • 00:42:48
    the Long Haul I think it's better to be
  • 00:42:50
    an optimist than a pessimist and also
  • 00:42:52
    again the Bears sound smart the Bulls
  • 00:42:54
    make money so I'll be watching eth with
  • 00:42:58
    the bull market support ban and see if
  • 00:43:00
    it can hold it as support kind of like
  • 00:43:02
    it held it as support right here you see
  • 00:43:04
    that kind of like it held it at support
  • 00:43:05
    right
  • 00:43:07
    there but if it just kind of Fades Bel
  • 00:43:10
    below it right if if Bitcoin gets
  • 00:43:13
    rejected from this range and and
  • 00:43:15
    actually goes back down instead of
  • 00:43:17
    instead of breaking out in February and
  • 00:43:19
    March like it did last year then it
  • 00:43:21
    would lead to ethereum getting this move
  • 00:43:23
    and that's where it ultimately comes
  • 00:43:25
    down to right I mean if Bitcoin can
  • 00:43:26
    break out to to 140k 120 130k there's a
  • 00:43:30
    good chance eth is just going to go back
  • 00:43:31
    up to 4K right if Bitcoin does not make
  • 00:43:36
    that break in February and instead it
  • 00:43:38
    sells off and goes back down to say like
  • 00:43:41
    90k or even goes below that that's how
  • 00:43:43
    you could see one sort of final
  • 00:43:45
    capitulation um in the market by eth but
  • 00:43:47
    again I don't know if you're going to
  • 00:43:49
    get it but I will say if you get it it's
  • 00:43:51
    probably not going to last very long
  • 00:43:53
    would be my guess so that's the way I'm
  • 00:43:55
    thinking about the market with Bitcoin
  • 00:43:57
    at 03 I already think it's undervalued
  • 00:44:00
    against Bitcoin the US devaluation can
  • 00:44:03
    always remain irrational for really long
  • 00:44:05
    periods of time and I think the reason
  • 00:44:07
    why ethusd has struggled so much is just
  • 00:44:10
    an artifact of of monetary policy and an
  • 00:44:13
    artifact of quantitative tightening
  • 00:44:14
    lasting a lot longer than you know than
  • 00:44:18
    it otherwise would have and I know you
  • 00:44:20
    could argue and you could say well some
  • 00:44:21
    altcoins have done fine like you know
  • 00:44:23
    it's not like they needed um you know
  • 00:44:26
    quantitative easing or anything to to
  • 00:44:28
    get a that a bounce on their Bitcoin
  • 00:44:31
    pairs but you have to remember that the
  • 00:44:34
    altcoin market they're all sort of at
  • 00:44:35
    different phases and one of the one of
  • 00:44:37
    the more popular scenar or one of the
  • 00:44:39
    more popular comparisons this cycle has
  • 00:44:41
    obviously been salana but as I've sad I
  • 00:44:43
    mean I think you could make the argument
  • 00:44:46
    that salana is following eth in its
  • 00:44:49
    Bitcoin path right I mean eth Bitcoin
  • 00:44:51
    had this distribution phase up here and
  • 00:44:54
    it had these higher lows eventually it
  • 00:44:57
    broke down into this low right here and
  • 00:45:00
    then it got a secondary rally back up
  • 00:45:02
    before then eventually it just
  • 00:45:04
    bled that's the same thing Soul Bitcoin
  • 00:45:07
    is potentially
  • 00:45:08
    doing right and we talked about this
  • 00:45:10
    last year we said look it's probably
  • 00:45:12
    going to capitulate into December and
  • 00:45:13
    then bounce in early 2025 and that's
  • 00:45:15
    exactly what it
  • 00:45:18
    did distribution phase right higher low
  • 00:45:22
    structure eventually it breaks
  • 00:45:25
    down just like eth bit coin right
  • 00:45:27
    eventually it breaks down then it goes
  • 00:45:29
    back up into a secondary distribution
  • 00:45:32
    phase could that be what so Bitcoin is
  • 00:45:34
    doing right now it's very possible
  • 00:45:37
    because that's exactly what eth Bitcoin
  • 00:45:38
    did and you know what even the
  • 00:45:40
    percentage move down is similar right
  • 00:45:42
    this is an 89% drop eth or this is soul
  • 00:45:45
    Bitcoin 89% drop eth Bitcoin guess what
  • 00:45:48
    same
  • 00:45:50
    thing right if you go to a a price
  • 00:45:54
    range from the top
  • 00:45:59
    89% if you if you draw it accurately i'
  • 00:46:02
    I've done it before but it's like yeah
  • 00:46:03
    it's right around $ 89.9% but it should
  • 00:46:06
    be I I I'm pretty sure it's 89 89% so
  • 00:46:09
    you basically have the same drop similar
  • 00:46:11
    move up so Bitcoin went up a little bit
  • 00:46:13
    more than eath Bitcoin but I almost
  • 00:46:15
    wonder if you're just argue if the
  • 00:46:17
    argument is that it's just sort of doing
  • 00:46:19
    the same thing it's just behind by a few
  • 00:46:22
    year a couple years because Soul Bitcoin
  • 00:46:25
    you know you can see that it came out
  • 00:46:27
    out a lot later than eth did so a lot of
  • 00:46:30
    alts get these moves where they get this
  • 00:46:32
    massive move up in their first cycle
  • 00:46:33
    they drop and they get sort of this
  • 00:46:35
    secondary move up and then they fade
  • 00:46:37
    again that's kind of what eth Bitcoin
  • 00:46:40
    has
  • 00:46:42
    done I mean I almost
  • 00:46:45
    wonder I almost wonder if you
  • 00:46:48
    can take a bar pattern
  • 00:46:55
    here it's not going to line up exactly
  • 00:46:59
    right but maybe on a log
  • 00:47:07
    scale and copy that and put it onto
  • 00:47:12
    the to the still Bitcoin chart
  • 00:47:30
    I mean you can kind of you kind of see
  • 00:47:32
    what I'm talking about right I
  • 00:47:35
    mean is it is it really that different
  • 00:47:41
    guys I'm telling you I mean just looks
  • 00:47:43
    like the same damn
  • 00:47:50
    thing anyways I digress It's Not About
  • 00:47:53
    Soul that's about eth um
  • 00:47:58
    but I I do I I do find these patterns
  • 00:48:00
    interesting to watch and you know I
  • 00:48:02
    fought the good fight with eth Bitcoin
  • 00:48:04
    I've mentioned that Soul Bitcoin might
  • 00:48:05
    just be following it but I'm not I'm not
  • 00:48:08
    getting into the trenches with those you
  • 00:48:10
    know with with um those Deens I did it
  • 00:48:13
    with the with the eens and um I used to
  • 00:48:15
    be an ethen back when when the good
  • 00:48:17
    times were rolling when monetary policy
  • 00:48:19
    was loose and maybe I'll be an ethen
  • 00:48:21
    again here coming up soon but um I I I
  • 00:48:24
    don't want to get into it with them
  • 00:48:25
    because first of all I could be wrong
  • 00:48:27
    right just cuz e did it just cuz I got I
  • 00:48:28
    was right about eth doesn't mean I'll be
  • 00:48:29
    right about Soul Bitcoin following that
  • 00:48:31
    same pattern but
  • 00:48:33
    um it's not a fight I I really want to
  • 00:48:35
    spend a lot of time fighting anymore so
  • 00:48:38
    anyways uh those are my views and and
  • 00:48:40
    we'll see what eth Bitcoin does I would
  • 00:48:42
    say optimistic scenario is that pow cut
  • 00:48:45
    or pow goes to QE uh next week and and
  • 00:48:49
    it allows eth Bitcoin to bottom and an
  • 00:48:51
    ethusd holds the bullmark sport ban and
  • 00:48:54
    goes to New goes back up to 4K pessimist
  • 00:48:57
    scenario pal comes out and says screw
  • 00:48:59
    the dents QT continues and in that case
  • 00:49:02
    maybe it leads to some type of event
  • 00:49:04
    that forces them to start QB in March
  • 00:49:06
    and and and that could be you know how
  • 00:49:09
    it how it how it happens but those are
  • 00:49:10
    the two most likely you know paths it's
  • 00:49:13
    just going to depend on on what happens
  • 00:49:15
    I think um next week and and maybe it's
  • 00:49:17
    not just next week but also the week
  • 00:49:18
    after as that labor market data comes in
  • 00:49:20
    because a lot of the times when when you
  • 00:49:22
    got those capitulations by
  • 00:49:24
    ethusd um it was it was right after the
  • 00:49:27
    labor market data came in it was like a
  • 00:49:28
    bad data point or something so we'll see
  • 00:49:30
    what happens anyways if you guys like
  • 00:49:31
    the content make sure you subscribe give
  • 00:49:33
    the video a thumbs up and again check
  • 00:49:34
    out the sale on into the cryptoverse
  • 00:49:36
    premium at intothe cryptoverse decom see
  • 00:49:38
    you guys next time bye
Tags
  • Ethereum
  • Bitcoin
  • cryptomonnaies
  • marché altcoin
  • monnaie numérique
  • politique monétaire
  • quantitative tightening
  • ETH/BTC
  • analyse de marché
  • prédictions de prix