一口气了解关税
Summary
TLDRThis video discusses the complexities of tariffs in the global economy, exploring their history, impact, and the ongoing debate regarding their benefits and drawbacks. It begins with an explanation of tariffs using a hypothetical scenario with two countries, highlighting the balance between protecting domestic businesses and the negative effects on consumers and efficiency. Historical examples, such as Trump's tariffs on washing machines and the broader implications of protectionism during the Great Depression, illustrate the mixed results of tariff imposition. The video culminates by discussing the modern challenges faced by organizations like the WTO amid rising economic nationalism and trade protectionism, emphasizing the need for careful strategies in international trade.
Takeaways
- 📈 Tariffs can increase government revenue but raise consumer prices.
- 🛡️ They protect domestic industries but can harm consumers' purchasing power.
- ⚖️ Increased tariffs lead to trade-offs between industry support and consumer welfare.
- 🛠️ The infant industry argument justifies temporary tariffs for emerging industries.
- 🔄 'Tit-for-tat' strategies in trade help maintain cooperative relationships.
- 🗺️ Historical examples, like the Smoot-Hawley Act, show the risks of excessive tariffs.
- ⚠️ Deadweight losses occur when tariffs distort market efficiency.
- 📉 Recent trends show a potential shift towards de-globalization.
- 🤝 Organizations like the WTO aim to regulate trade disputes and tariffs.
- ️🚧 Protectionist sentiments can have long-lasting effects on global trade.
Timeline
- 00:00:00 - 00:05:00
The discussion revolves around the concept of tariffs, highlighted by Trump's assertion that it is the 'most beautiful word' in the dictionary, while many economists warn that tariffs decrease economic efficiency and create deadweight losses. The video prompts viewers to explore the implications of tariffs in the macroeconomic context and their historical relevance in global trade.
- 00:05:00 - 00:10:00
Tariffs are described using an analogy involving two fictional countries, Milk Tea Kingdom and Dairy Kingdom, where the implementation of a 20% tariff on imported milk powder leads to increased consumer prices but benefits local producers. This example illustrates the basic mechanism and impacts of tariffs, noting the mixed outcomes: government revenue and producer benefits versus negative consumer effects.
- 00:10:00 - 00:15:00
Citing Trump's imposition of tariffs on washing machines, the video highlights the increase in domestic production jobs but also the corresponding rise in consumer prices. Thus, tariffs create a trade-off between employment benefits and consumer costs, leading to the question of whether tariffs collectively improve or worsen economic conditions for a country.
- 00:15:00 - 00:20:00
Delving into theoretical economics, the video explains how tariffs can produce deadweight losses—a well-known criticism in classical economics. While tariffs might protect certain industries and potentially foster future growth, their overall impact on consumers and the broader economy tends to be negative, suggesting a nuanced view of tariffs that is more complex than simply classifying them as beneficial or harmful.
- 00:20:00 - 00:27:15
The discussion transitions to the historical evolution of trade, where the UK initially engaged in protectionism with high tariffs before adopting free trade policies influenced by Ricardo's comparative advantage theory. The rise and fall of global tariffs, especially through the post-WWII trade agreements like GATT/WTO, highlight an ongoing cycle of globalisation and protectionism, emphasizing that navigating these dynamics requires strategic approaches like tit-for-tat retaliation in trade negotiations.
Mind Map
Video Q&A
What are tariffs?
Tariffs are taxes imposed on imported goods to protect domestic industries by making imported products more expensive.
What impact do tariffs have on consumers?
Tariffs generally lead to higher prices for consumers, as importers pass on the cost of the tariff.
Are tariffs good or bad for a country's economy?
Tariffs can have both positive and negative effects; they may protect local industries but can also result in deadweight losses and reduced overall efficiency.
What is the infant industry argument?
This is a theory suggesting that new industries need protection from competition until they become established.
What is the tit-for-tat strategy in trade?
It involves responding to another country's tariffs with reciprocal actions, fostering cooperation in trade over time.
How have tariffs historically affected global trade?
Tariffs have been a major factor in global trade tensions, with significant impacts during events like the Great Depression and response to globalization.
What was the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act?
This 1930 act raised tariffs on over 20,000 goods, worsening the Great Depression by prompting retaliatory tariffs from other countries.
What organizations help regulate global trade?
The World Trade Organization (WTO) is the primary body that facilitates trade negotiations and dispute resolution among countries.
How do tariffs influence employment?
In the short term, tariffs can protect jobs in specific industries, but they may lead to job losses in downstream sectors.
What are deadweight losses?
Deadweight losses refer to the lost economic efficiency when equilibrium for a good or service is not achieved due to tariffs.
View more video summaries
- 00:00:00Hi
- 00:00:00Today we are going to dismantle
- 00:00:02what can be said to be
- 00:00:04the hottest term in the global economy
- 00:00:06which is Tariff
- 00:00:09Trump said
- 00:00:09Tariff is the most beautiful word in the dictionary
- 00:00:12Tariff is more beautiful than love
- 00:00:14"It's music to my ear."
- 00:00:16Meanwhile most economists
- 00:00:17believe that tariffs will reduce the efficiency of the economy,
- 00:00:19saying that tariffs will bring deadweight losses.
- 00:00:22In the past hundreds of years,
- 00:00:24economists, politicians, and the public
- 00:00:25have been divided on tariff
- 00:00:28arguing endlessly
- 00:00:28What kind of chain reactions
- 00:00:30will this seemingly simple concept trigger
- 00:00:31in this complex macroeconomy?
- 00:00:33What role does tariffs play
- 00:00:34in the game between countries?
- 00:00:36What kind of strategy is optimal?
- 00:00:37Ultimately
- 00:00:38are tariffs good or bad
- 00:00:39for a country?
- 00:00:43After gaining a more comprehensive understanding
- 00:00:45let's take a look at the history of global trade
- 00:00:46over the past 300 years, examining its ups and downs
- 00:00:49I believe everyone will have
- 00:00:51their own understanding and judgment.
- 00:00:56First, let's take a look at what tariffs are.
- 00:00:57For example, there is a country called Milk Tea Kingdom
- 00:01:00next to it is a country specialised in milk powder production
- 00:01:02called Dairy Kingdom
- 00:01:03Milk Tea Kingdom
- 00:01:04needs to import a large amount of milk powder from Dairy Kingdom
- 00:01:06Normally,
- 00:01:07milk powder is sold to consumers for 100 milk coins per barrel.
- 00:01:13But suddenly one day,
- 00:01:14the government of Milk Tea Kingdom
- 00:01:15decided to impose a tariff on imported milk powder
- 00:01:17of say 20%
- 00:01:18In this way, the importer of milk powder
- 00:01:19needs to pay a tariff of 20 milk coins
- 00:01:21to the government of the Milk Tea Kingdom
- 00:01:22for every barrel of milk powder he imports
- 00:01:24In order to maintain his own profits, the importer
- 00:01:26sells the price at 120 milk coins per barrel
- 00:01:28to consumers.
- 00:01:30This is the most basic operating mechanism of tariffs.
- 00:01:32Let’s analyse some of the most basic pros and cons
- 00:01:34of this tariff from the perspective of Milk Tea Kingdom
- 00:01:37First of all, the government charges a tariff of 20 milk coins,
- 00:01:40which is equivalent to generating income. It is a plus point.
- 00:01:42On the consumer side, they can only
- 00:01:43buy milk powder from Dairy Kingdom
- 00:01:45at a more expensive price
- 00:01:46so the effect becomes worse, so it's a minus point
- 00:01:48For the milk powder manufacturers in the Milk Tea Kingdom
- 00:01:51the prices of their competitors have become higher and
- 00:01:53have been suppressed, right?
- 00:01:54This will make them happy
- 00:01:54that a large number of milk powder consumers will
- 00:01:56turn to the milk powder produced in the Milk Tea Kingdom
- 00:01:58because the milk powder in the Dairy Kingdom has become more expensive.
- 00:02:01In this way,
- 00:02:02the milk powder manufacturers in the Milk Tea Kingdom will make money.
- 00:02:04Then expand production to attract foreign investment and increase employment
- 00:02:07This is a bonus.
- 00:02:09This is the most simplified version of tariffs
- 00:02:12and its most direct impact.
- 00:02:14For example, in 2018, Trump began
- 00:02:16to impose 20% to 50% tariffs
- 00:02:17on imported washing machines.
- 00:02:20This was mainly because overseas brands
- 00:02:21such as Samsung, LG, Haier
- 00:02:23are too competitive
- 00:02:24that they are
- 00:02:25squeezing the space of local brands
- 00:02:27such as Whirlpool, GE.
- 00:02:28So what happened after this policy?
- 00:02:29First of all, the U.S. government
- 00:02:31received $1 billion in revenue
- 00:02:32in the next three years.
- 00:02:34The price of washing machines
- 00:02:35rose by about 34%
- 00:02:37in the next five years.
- 00:02:38Home appliances increased by about 23% in the same period.
- 00:02:40So washing machines prices increased by about 10% more
- 00:02:43than the entire home appliances .
- 00:02:44What is interesting is that
- 00:02:45not just the prices of washing machines imported from South Korea and China
- 00:02:48have increased.
- 00:02:48The prices of washing machines produced by local manufacturers
- 00:02:50have also increased
- 00:02:51including the prices of dryers.
- 00:02:53These price increases
- 00:02:54are naturally borne by American consumers.
- 00:02:56In terms of jobs,
- 00:02:57Samsung and LG
- 00:02:58have begun to increase
- 00:02:59factory production in the US in response to tariffs,
- 00:03:02including Whirlpool
- 00:03:03has also begun to expand production scale.
- 00:03:04It is estimated that the total
- 00:03:05increase is about 2,000 jobs.
- 00:03:08You see, this is
- 00:03:09consistent with the theory we just mentioned.
- 00:03:11Of course, this is just a small example, just an appetiser.
- 00:03:13However, it does reflect
- 00:03:16the direct consequences of tariffs
- 00:03:17The government and producers have become better,
- 00:03:19but for consumers it has become worse.
- 00:03:21Did you notice that
- 00:03:22tariffs, to a certain extent
- 00:03:24is a trade-off between consumption and employment.
- 00:03:27For example, if you increase tariffs for a certain industry,
- 00:03:29it is equivalent to
- 00:03:30taking part of the effect of consumers to
- 00:03:32replenish the manufacturers of this industry.
- 00:03:33Of course, this also includes the government.
- 00:03:35You see, this tariff makes some people have become better and
- 00:03:37others have become worse.
- 00:03:38Then we naturally think of a question.
- 00:03:40From the perspective of a country as a whole,
- 00:03:42do tariffs make it better
- 00:03:44or worse?
- 00:03:47This is actually
- 00:03:48a key factor in a country's government deciding whether to impose tariffs.
- 00:03:51I think
- 00:03:51it is necessary to first briefly understand
- 00:03:54the most classic economic model.
- 00:03:56Look at Milk Tea Kingdom, when there are no tariffs,
- 00:03:57the total remaining area is like this
- 00:03:58After adding tariffs, it is like this
- 00:04:00these two small triangles are lost.
- 00:04:01It refers to the loss in the sense of well-being for the entire population
- 00:04:03They are called deadweight losses.
- 00:04:05I guess you might never heard of it
- 00:04:06Let me break it down for you in detail.
- 00:04:09So the conclusion is that
- 00:04:11we'll just look at the conclusion.
- 00:04:14increasing tariff is worse off for consumers
- 00:04:16better off for government and manufacturers
- 00:04:17In overall there's deadweight losses, it's worse off
- 00:04:21Let me emphasise that
- 00:04:21this is just a theoretical framework of classical economics.
- 00:04:24Generally, first-year economics students
- 00:04:25will take this thing.
- 00:04:26Textbooks will tell you that
- 00:04:28trade liberalisation is the most efficient.
- 00:04:29Tariffs, subsidy restrictions, etc.
- 00:04:31are all bad and will reduce and efficiency
- 00:04:33reduce the overall efficiency of society.
- 00:04:34According to this classic economic model,
- 00:04:36tariffs will bring deadweight losses
- 00:04:38then the government should never impose tariffs, right?
- 00:04:40This is obviously a bit too absolute and idealistic.
- 00:04:43In reality, tariffs
- 00:04:44still have many additional effects, which
- 00:04:46this model does not take into account.
- 00:04:47First, tariffs can protect the development of specific industries in the country.
- 00:04:52It was the first U.S. Secretary of the Treasury, Hamilton,
- 00:04:54who in the 18th century proposed a theory called
- 00:04:57the infant industry argument
- 00:04:58For many industries, they need to be protected in their infancy.
- 00:05:01You can’t just look at models.
- 00:05:02We can sacrifice some consumer surplus
- 00:05:05to protect these industries.
- 00:05:05In the long run,
- 00:05:07the return on investment may be very worthwhile.
- 00:05:09So in the 19th century, the United States and Germany
- 00:05:11were trying their best to protect their
- 00:05:12textile industry, steel, automobiles, etc.
- 00:05:15moreover there's British’s divine assistance
- 00:05:17which we will talk about in a moment,
- 00:05:18made the manufacturing industries of the US and Germany to rise rapidly
- 00:05:21For example, Mainland China
- 00:05:22imposed tariff on imported cars 30 years ago
- 00:05:24almost over 200%
- 00:05:25coupled with vigorous efforts to attract foreign investment,
- 00:05:27it has been supported bit by bit.
- 00:05:28This can be said to be the infant Chinese automobile industry.
- 00:05:31For example, among the world's major countries,
- 00:05:32do you know which country has the most severe trade protection
- 00:05:34or the highest average tariff?
- 00:05:37It is
- 00:05:37India
- 00:05:39Since 10 years ago
- 00:05:40Modi has implemented his Make in India plan
- 00:05:42Although he has been subject to various restrictions from the WTO
- 00:05:44he still does his best to raise tariffs
- 00:05:46to protect the country's manufacturing industry.
- 00:05:47This has also led to many countries
- 00:05:48going to the WTO to sue him every day.
- 00:05:51In fact, not only India, but
- 00:05:52most developing countries now
- 00:05:54have significantly higher tariffs than developed countries.
- 00:05:55The main reason
- 00:05:56is to increase tariffs to protect their key industries
- 00:05:59Another negative consequence
- 00:06:01is that it not only makes consumers bear higher prices.
- 00:06:04If the imported product
- 00:06:05is not the final product,
- 00:06:07it will also lead to domestic downstream manufacturers in the supply chain
- 00:06:10bearing higher costs
- 00:06:10which affects the development of downstream industries
- 00:06:12For example, Milk Tea Kingdom has increased tariffs on milk powder,
- 00:06:15which will cause the price of milk powder to rise
- 00:06:16The entire downstream of milk tea industry may be affected.
- 00:06:19Another example is the United States,
- 00:06:21which particularly likes to
- 00:06:22implement trade protection on steel and increase tariffs
- 00:06:24In 2018
- 00:06:25Trump imposed a 25% tariff on steel
- 00:06:27and a 10% tariff on aluminum.
- 00:06:29This did give the U.S. steel manufacturing industry
- 00:06:31a chance to breathe.
- 00:06:32However, the rise in steel prices
- 00:06:33has made prices higher for downstream manufacturers that need steel
- 00:06:35For example, General Motors, Ford, Caterpillar, etc.
- 00:06:38have all suffered.
- 00:06:39Ford's CEO himself said at the time
- 00:06:41that these steel tariffs
- 00:06:42had cost them at least $1 billion.
- 00:06:44So very early on, the famous economist Keynes
- 00:06:47made a suggestion that
- 00:06:48in order to avoid this happening,
- 00:06:49tariffs should only be levied on manufactured goods.
- 00:06:55The next impact of tariffs
- 00:06:56this time the advantage
- 00:06:57which is under normal circumstances
- 00:06:58it will get some public support
- 00:07:02because most people may subconsciously think that
- 00:07:04if I import things, it means that money is flowing out,
- 00:07:06which means that I'm benefitting others.
- 00:07:07So if I impose tariffs to protect domestic industries,
- 00:07:10it will get some public support.
- 00:07:12This kind of public support
- 00:07:13is especially obvious
- 00:07:14during economic downturn or economic malaise.
- 00:07:17So one phenomenon you often see in history
- 00:07:19is that when the economy begins to decline,
- 00:07:21trade protection becomes more obvious.
- 00:07:23For example, during the Great Depression in the US
- 00:07:24they implemented
- 00:07:25very severe and extensive trade protectionism.
- 00:07:27This is actually
- 00:07:29one of the reasons why the subsequent economic recovery was extremely slow.
- 00:07:31Increasing tariffs can help gain public support
- 00:07:33and there's quite an interesting phenomenon in this
- 00:07:34let's talk a bit about this
- 00:07:35We know that the key factors influencing the U.S. election
- 00:07:38are mainly a few swing states
- 00:07:40and the unions of key industries in these states
- 00:07:42have a great influence on the elections
- 00:07:44Therefore, the unions in these swing states will
- 00:07:47have a key influence on the government’s decision-making.
- 00:07:49Therefore, you will have a vague feeling that many of these tariff policies
- 00:07:52are beneficial to the industries of these swing states.
- 00:07:55For example, we just mentioned that
- 00:07:56during Trump’s first term,
- 00:07:57a very important tariff policy targeted steel and aluminium.
- 00:08:00It happens that the famous steel-producing state in the US
- 00:08:03is Pennsylvania,
- 00:08:04and the city of Pittsburgh
- 00:08:06Steel City
- 00:08:07Pennsylvania, happens to be
- 00:08:09the most important swing state in the past few U.S. elections.
- 00:08:11It can be said to be a state that plays a decisive role.
- 00:08:16You must know that the steel union in the U.S is very large
- 00:08:18with more than 1.2 million people
- 00:08:20The headquarters is in Pennsylvania.
- 00:08:21Two years ago, Japan Steel originally negotiated
- 00:08:23to acquire U.S. Steel.
- 00:08:24As a result, the steel union protested and lobbied,
- 00:08:27plus some national security considerations.
- 00:08:29Finally, on January 3 this year, Biden signed an executive order
- 00:08:32to block the acquisition.
- 00:08:34In fact, it is not only Trump, Biden
- 00:08:35including Bush Jr, Carter, Reagan
- 00:08:37have all implemented strong steel protection policies before
- 00:08:39Of course, we cannot say that
- 00:08:40these decisions are all because of the power of the steel union
- 00:08:43but more or less you will find that
- 00:08:44the key industries of
- 00:08:45these swing states in the U.S
- 00:08:47have a very large impact
- 00:08:49on U.S. trade policy tariffs.
- 00:08:51But do you know what is interesting?
- 00:08:53Other countries
- 00:08:54also know that these swing states are the pain points of the U.S
- 00:08:56so they will rub salt on these wounds
- 00:09:01Back in 2018
- 00:09:02Trump imposed tariffs on steel and aluminium right
- 00:09:04Canada was not happy.
- 00:09:05He said we are going to impose tariff
- 00:09:08on 125 products from U.S.
- 00:09:09but he didn't actually say which products
- 00:09:12just wait, we'll be back with the list
- 00:09:14Two days later
- 00:09:16they come back with a list
- 00:09:17which is very interesting.
- 00:09:19Look at the products they impose tariffs on
- 00:09:20ketchup, orange juice
- 00:09:21toilet paper, mayonnaise, etc
- 00:09:23Feels like
- 00:09:24why are they all unrelated
- 00:09:26However, if you look closely
- 00:09:28Heinz ketchup is based in Pennsylvania.
- 00:09:30Orange juice is mainly from Florida.
- 00:09:32Toilet paper, mayonnaise is mainly produced in Wisconsin.
- 00:09:35Did you notice
- 00:09:36one distinct feature here?
- 00:09:37The tariff is mainly put on those swing states
- 00:09:40I can only impose tariff on so much products
- 00:09:42so I will make the best use of them
- 00:09:43targeting your pain point
- 00:09:47Finally, U.S negotiated with Canada
- 00:09:50A year later, the tariffs on Canadian steel were withdrawn.
- 00:09:52Both sides also reached a new version of the North American trade agreement, the USMCA
- 00:09:57You see,
- 00:09:58we have just discussed the impact of tariffs for a country
- 00:10:00there are good and bad.
- 00:10:01But for the opponent country,
- 00:10:03it is basically negative.
- 00:10:04Which is to say, tariff is not necessarily beneficial to oneself,
- 00:10:06but it is definitely harmful to others.
- 00:10:08In fact, what benefit does it have for the country
- 00:10:10Tariffs can be used as
- 00:10:12an important means of threat in negotiations.
- 00:10:15You see, we first talked about the impact of tariffs on the economy,
- 00:10:17the impact on the government, and the impact on people's hearts.
- 00:10:19Another one is impact on negotiations.
- 00:10:21If you don’t agree with me,
- 00:10:22I will increase tariffs to make you uncomfortable
- 00:10:24Or that between the two countries
- 00:10:25conditions or relations are unreasonable.
- 00:10:26If I don’t like it, I will increase tariffs
- 00:10:28to make you uncomfortable and come to negotiate with me.
- 00:10:30Trump really likes to do this.
- 00:10:32I’m not sure how good he is economically,
- 00:10:35but he is really an expert in negotiations
- 00:10:37For example, few days ago he had a similar strategy
- 00:10:40with the World Health Organisation (WHO)
- 00:10:41I'll just say that I want to withdraw
- 00:10:42it's not certain he'll withdraw
- 00:10:43but we can negotiate a new deal
- 00:10:45For example, in 2017,
- 00:10:46Trump announced in a very high-profile manner that
- 00:10:48he would withdraw from the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA)
- 00:10:50and then began to impose a series of tariffs on Canada.
- 00:10:52Canada immediately couldn't sit still.
- 00:10:53The counterattack we just mentioned
- 00:10:55was also part of the counterattack here.
- 00:10:56Then both sides began to renegotiate
- 00:10:57and finally reached a new agreement,
- 00:10:59which allowed the U.S to obtain more protective provisions,
- 00:11:01especially in the fields of automobiles and agriculture.
- 00:11:04You see recently Trump has started
- 00:11:06talking about imposing 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico again
- 00:11:08I don’t know if he is really planning to do this
- 00:11:10or if he is just putting on a show.
- 00:11:12To be honest, I think this move is quite harsh.
- 00:11:14So you see, tariff will damage the opponent country,
- 00:11:16so it can be used as a bargaining chip in negotiations.
- 00:11:18This can be considered half of its benefits.
- 00:11:21Of course, the interests of the other side being damaged,
- 00:11:23he will naturally fight back.
- 00:11:25In fact, this is also
- 00:11:27a very, very big cost in tariffs
- 00:11:29especially in many cases,
- 00:11:30the intensity of the counterattack is uncertain.
- 00:11:32For example, in 1963,
- 00:11:34U.S. and West Germany had a fight called
- 00:11:37the "Chicken Truck War."
- 00:11:39At that time, U.S. exported a lot of chickens,
- 00:11:41and West German chicken farmers were not happy about it
- 00:11:43Europe directly imposed a 40% tariff on American chickens.
- 00:11:46As a result, the amount of chicken imported by Europe from U.S. plummeted
- 00:11:49from $50 million
- 00:11:49to $20 million in one year.
- 00:11:51The Americans were immediately angry.
- 00:11:52You blocked my chicken, I will stop your car
- 00:11:55and impose a 25% tariff on European light trucks.
- 00:11:58Sure enough,
- 00:11:59the number of trucks exported by Volkswagen to U.S. has also been cut in half.
- 00:12:01The final result is that the price
- 00:12:02of American trucks has also increased, and the price of
- 00:12:03European chicken has also increased.
- 00:12:05Consumers on both sides bear the burden.
- 00:12:06But the happy ones may be European chicken farms
- 00:12:09and American truck manufacturers
- 00:12:12Tariff also has another benefit
- 00:12:13which is the one point that Trump said the most
- 00:12:16is that it can reduce the trade deficit.
- 00:12:19This is certainly true in theory in the short term, right?
- 00:12:21If you increase tariffs on imports, you will reduce imports
- 00:12:23when imports decrease, trade deficit decrease.
- 00:12:25However, in fact, most tariffs
- 00:12:26are targeted at a small range of goods.
- 00:12:29For example, like what we mentioned
- 00:12:30washing machines, chicken, milk powder, etc.
- 00:12:32Their size is actually not enough
- 00:12:34to compare with a country’s overall trade deficit.
- 00:12:37But if it is really a large-scale tariff
- 00:12:39that affects everyone
- 00:12:41as Trump said,
- 00:12:41then the price it affects
- 00:12:42is not the price of one or two goods,
- 00:12:44but the price of the entire country,
- 00:12:46the industrial structure of the entire country , plus other
- 00:12:48countries on the other side.
- 00:12:49There may be large-scale retaliatory tariffs
- 00:12:51and there is another key factor that
- 00:12:53we have not discussed just now, exchange rate
- 00:12:55All these effects combined
- 00:12:56the long-term result is definitely very uncertain
- 00:12:58In fact, have you ever thought
- 00:13:00about why the United States has
- 00:13:01such a large and sustained trade deficit?
- 00:13:05Is it because it is too rich?
- 00:13:06Or is it because labour costs are low in other countries and things are cheap ?
- 00:13:09Or is it simply because Americans can afford to spend so much money?
- 00:13:12Let me tell you, this problem
- 00:13:13may not be that simple
- 00:13:14We can talk about it if we have the chance.
- 00:13:19Actually, tariffs also have many hidden costs.
- 00:13:22For example, they limit the diversity of goods,
- 00:13:25limit the exchange of international ideas, limit competition, etc.
- 00:13:28This is actually one of the benefits of
- 00:13:29international trade that we often mention
- 00:13:31You can see that our table of advantages and disadvantages of tariffs
- 00:13:33it is very comprehensive
- 00:13:38After considering all these various
- 00:13:39real-world factors and the overall pros and cons
- 00:13:42the general consensus in the industry is that
- 00:13:44if you indiscriminately impose tariffs
- 00:13:47it will lead to losses and
- 00:13:48more detrimental to the overall economy
- 00:13:50But if the tariff is being imposed
- 00:13:51in the right place and at the right time
- 00:13:53to properly protect some of the country's early-stage industries
- 00:13:55and stimulate employment
- 00:13:56then it will be more beneficial in the long run.
- 00:14:00So, tariffs are not something that
- 00:14:01can be simply categorised as good or bad
- 00:14:02it is a double-edged sword
- 00:14:04But when someone like Trump says they want to impose tariffs on Canada, Mexico
- 00:14:07and even all imported goods
- 00:14:09many economists would step forward to oppose that.
- 00:14:11For example, there is a very famous economist
- 00:14:13named Krugman.
- 00:14:14He won the Nobel Prize for his trade theory.
- 00:14:16He believes that this large-scale indiscriminate attack
- 00:14:19will have a huge impact on the U.S. economy.
- 00:14:21The exact words are: "It doesn't make any sense"
- 00:14:22"It doesn't make any sense"
- 00:14:24Of course, he also said that
- 00:14:26he can only analyse it from an economic point of view.
- 00:14:28But President Trump
- 00:14:29may have many non-economic considerations in it,
- 00:14:32so it is not clear and it is not easy to evaluate.
- 00:14:35Well, what we have just analysed is the pros and cons of tariffs.
- 00:14:37This is not over yet. Based on the analysis of these pros and cons,
- 00:14:40we know that after the implementation of tariff
- 00:14:42who may benefit and who may be disadvantaged
- 00:14:43we can further see
- 00:14:45whether there is an optimal strategy
- 00:14:46for the tariff game
- 00:14:47between the countries
- 00:14:49This further extends to a
- 00:14:51game theory problem.
- 00:14:53We know that
- 00:14:54a very classic case of game theory is the prisoner's dilemma.
- 00:14:56In fact, trade can also be a very similar problem.
- 00:14:59Let me build a small model for you.
- 00:15:01Don't worry, it's not complicated at all.
- 00:15:02For example, if there are two countries, country A and country B,
- 00:15:05we will simplify it
- 00:15:06Two countries, two strategies
- 00:15:07one is trade openness and the other is trade protection,
- 00:15:09so there are four situations in total:
- 00:15:11both open , both protect
- 00:15:13A open, B protect, or A protect, B open.
- 00:15:15In a single game,
- 00:15:16let's now assume
- 00:15:17the incomes of different scenarios.
- 00:15:19If they are both open,
- 00:15:21the incomes to both countries are +3.
- 00:15:22If they are both protect, the incomes are both -3.
- 00:15:25If you open and I protect, then I will take the most advantage and
- 00:15:28my income will be +8,
- 00:15:29and your income is -5
- 00:15:31and the reverse is also true.
- 00:15:32This assumption is actually very simplistic.
- 00:15:34Don't be too serious.
- 00:15:35Let me first explain
- 00:15:36the setting of my income logic
- 00:15:37I think it makes sense.
- 00:15:38First of all, it is better for everyone to open than to protect.
- 00:15:41Then we assume that the tariff is set
- 00:15:43very well and very reasonably.
- 00:15:44If the other party does not fight back,
- 00:15:45it will indeed make the country's income higher,
- 00:15:47But for these two countries, the overall income is greater when both sides are open
- 00:15:50rather than one side being open while the other is protect
- 00:15:52and better than both sides protect
- 00:15:54Okay we are done with the assumptions
- 00:15:55let’s briefly analyse the strategies of these two countries
- 00:15:59For example, these two countries were open at the beginning
- 00:16:01For country A,
- 00:16:02if I change from trade openness to trade protection,
- 00:16:05my income will change from 3 to 8.
- 00:16:07If originally B is protect, and A is open .
- 00:16:09if at this time, I change from open to protect
- 00:16:11my total income impove from -5 to -3,
- 00:16:14becomes better
- 00:16:15Did you notice
- 00:16:16if I am country A,
- 00:16:17no matter what B is like at the beginning,
- 00:16:18as long as I change from open to protect
- 00:16:20my income will improve
- 00:16:21Country A’s optimal strategy is trade protection.
- 00:16:24In turn, country B is the same,
- 00:16:25so they will choose to protect.
- 00:16:27They all protect,
- 00:16:28which is the only Nash equilibrium point under this model.
- 00:16:33But obviously
- 00:16:33if we treat the two as a whole,
- 00:16:35from the perspective of overall income
- 00:16:37they undoubtedly chose the worst outcome
- 00:16:39and stuck at status quo
- 00:16:40This actually fell into a prisoner's dilemma
- 00:16:42or in our model
- 00:16:44it is called a tariff dilemma.
- 00:16:47So what should we do?
- 00:16:48There is no solution.
- 00:16:49Do we all have to stay in the worst option?
- 00:16:51Absolutely not, there are two common solutions
- 00:16:54the most classic one is through repeated game
- 00:16:58the model we just mentioned is a single game
- 00:17:00but international trade is definitely not a one-shot deal.
- 00:17:02Everyone wants to do business for a long time
- 00:17:04so it is a long-term repeated game.
- 00:17:06In the case of repeated games,
- 00:17:07Country A can establish this strategy
- 00:17:10I will open it first, and then I will warn country B.
- 00:17:12If you dare to start trade protection
- 00:17:13I will immediately turn against you
- 00:17:15In this way, as country B,
- 00:17:17I will not have the option of trade protect while A is open
- 00:17:19Either both protect or open up
- 00:17:21In this case, it is open on both sides
- 00:17:23which will become a long-term rational choice
- 00:17:25and a new Nash equilibrium point
- 00:17:27to achieve the maximisation of overall interests.
- 00:17:29This strategy is the famous tit-for-tat strategy
- 00:17:32Tit for Tat
- 00:17:33For example, the UK
- 00:17:34suffered the loss not doing tit for tat
- 00:17:37In the 18th and 19th centuries, the UK was
- 00:17:39an empire on which the sun never sets.
- 00:17:40It was the most powerful country in the world.
- 00:17:42It realised that trade can drive development
- 00:17:44and wanted everyone to open
- 00:17:46up to free trade.
- 00:17:48Since we are an empire on which the sun never sets,
- 00:17:49We should broaden our perspective and show some grace.
- 00:17:51We opened the country first and lowered tariffs.
- 00:17:53They wanted to use this method to influence people from other countries
- 00:17:55and work with them to lower tariffs and free trade
- 00:17:58In fact, many small countries are very cooperative and
- 00:18:00actively open up free trade.
- 00:18:01But there are two countries
- 00:18:03United States and Germany.
- 00:18:05They did not follow the British approach and
- 00:18:07continued to protect their agriculture and manufacturing and rose rapidly
- 00:18:09and overtook the United Kingdom in the 20th century.
- 00:18:11This is why we just said
- 00:18:12U.S and Germany's trades were assisted by UK
- 00:18:14Of course, there must be many factors for the decline of the UK
- 00:18:16but opting out to retaliate in trade
- 00:18:18is also one of the very important reasons here.
- 00:18:31The famous quote just now comes from a non-famous person, Xiao Lin.
- 00:18:34It may sound a bit absolute
- 00:18:35but I think famous quotes
- 00:18:37have to be more absolute to be more powerful.
- 00:18:39I just want to make it funny.
- 00:18:40
- 00:18:41In fact, tit-for-tat is a very good strategy
- 00:18:43in many complex systems.
- 00:18:46For example, many animals
- 00:18:46have some very beautiful altruistic behaviours,
- 00:18:48including people living in society,
- 00:18:50such as workplace, socialisation
- 00:18:52In fact, in many cases,
- 00:18:53you can use the tit-for-tat strategy
- 00:18:55I open my arms first,
- 00:18:57but I told you that
- 00:18:58if you dare to mess with me, I will
- 00:19:00(make you happy).
- 00:19:01The key to this strategy
- 00:19:03is not to just make your own decision
- 00:19:04in silence while waiting for others to provoke
- 00:19:06When others provoke me, I will punch
- 00:19:08The key is to let the other party feel the threat
- 00:19:10and let others know that you have this strategy
- 00:19:12To put it bluntly, I am not that easy to bully.
- 00:19:14From a theoretical model perspective
- 00:19:16it is actually more conducive to everyone's long-term development
- 00:19:19Back to the topic
- 00:19:21the first way to break free from the prisoner's dilemma
- 00:19:23or the tariff dilemma, that we just mentioned
- 00:19:25is to play tit-for-tat and repeated game
- 00:19:26There is another method that is also very common
- 00:19:28which is to establish a community of interests.
- 00:19:31Everyone can either build an organisation together
- 00:19:33typical example is the WTO
- 00:19:35or a more extreme one, like the European Union
- 00:19:38or everyone can sign a long-term contract together .
- 00:19:40For example US, Canada and Mexico
- 00:19:42signed North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA)
- 00:19:43This also counts.
- 00:19:44WTO, which has 166 member countries,
- 00:19:46accounting for more than 98% of the world's trade,
- 00:19:48basically covering most countries.
- 00:19:50Its purpose is to maximise collective interests
- 00:19:52and avoid the prisoner's dilemma
- 00:19:56There is also an arbitration committee here, and
- 00:19:58if you have any violations,
- 00:20:00they can fine you.
- 00:20:01If you unilaterally protect
- 00:20:02your income will not be positive.
- 00:20:03However, many times countries
- 00:20:06don't adhere to the WTO's rulings and fines
- 00:20:08What should we do at this time?
- 00:20:09We can go back to the first rule
- 00:20:11tit-for-tat
- 00:20:12That is, I can allow
- 00:20:13other countries to increase tariffs on you in turn.
- 00:20:15For example, if you impose a certain amount of tariffs on others
- 00:20:16I will give them an equivalent amount of quotas
- 00:20:18allow them to retaliate against you.
- 00:20:20A very famous case here
- 00:20:21is that the U.S and the EU have been at odds over aircraft subsidies for
- 00:20:24twenty years.
- 00:20:26First, in 2004,
- 00:20:28U.S complained to the WTO
- 00:20:29that Europe had unfair subsidies for Airbus exports
- 00:20:32EU bit back and said that
- 00:20:34U.S also had unfair subsidies for Boeing.
- 00:20:36Initially, the WTO arbitrated and said that neither of you is clean
- 00:20:39and both of you must stop these subsidies
- 00:20:40As a result, both sides were dissatisfied
- 00:20:41and kept arguing and no one stopped the subsidies.
- 00:20:43Finally, the WTO took a big move and allowed them to do tit for tat
- 00:20:47In 2019,
- 00:20:47WTO said that the EU does have unfair subsidies for Airbus.
- 00:20:51The U.S can have an amount of $7.5 billion per year
- 00:20:53to impose retaliatory tariffs on goods imported from the EU.
- 00:20:55In 2020, WTO said again
- 00:20:56that the U.S also has many subsidies for Boeing,
- 00:20:59so the EU has $40 billion per year to
- 00:21:01impose retaliatory tariffs.
- 00:21:02Anyway, each side has a fifty-fifty deal.
- 00:21:03Finally, the two sides have become honest.
- 00:21:05In 2021,
- 00:21:06the two sides announced that they have to talk
- 00:21:07Let's suspend the tariff war for 5 years
- 00:21:11For example, the United States and Canada
- 00:21:13Their dispute actually lasted the longest and was the largest in scale
- 00:21:16also involved the largest number of jobs
- 00:21:17do you know what it is?
- 00:21:18It’s wood.
- 00:21:19Both have been arguing since 1982.
- 00:21:21U.S said that Canada was illegally subsidising wood.
- 00:21:24I will impose anti-dumping sanctions on you
- 00:21:25Canada said no, no, no, I didn't
- 00:21:26Then Canada went to the WTO.
- 00:21:28The WTO finally ruled that
- 00:21:29the U.S.'s anti-dumping sanctions were unreasonable,
- 00:21:31so it allowed Canada to impose retaliatory tariffs.
- 00:21:34In the end, both reached a settlement and the U.S. lowered its tariffs.
- 00:21:36In fact, there are many, many similar trade disputes
- 00:21:37arguing all the time
- 00:21:39But in short, tit for tat and building a community of interests
- 00:21:42are two very important strategies.
- 00:21:44Over the past nearly century
- 00:21:46it can be said to have greatly promoted the development of global trade
- 00:21:48and reduced tariffs across countries
- 00:21:51Now we understand the advantages and disadvantages of tariffs
- 00:21:53and have analysed some
- 00:21:55common strategies in the game
- 00:21:57Let’s review the global trade in the
- 00:21:59past 300 years.
- 00:22:00I believe everyone will be more aware of the process.
- 00:22:04Before the 19th century,
- 00:22:05there was actually no concept of global free trade.
- 00:22:08It mainly consisted of
- 00:22:09some trade transactions between Britain and its colonies around the world.
- 00:22:12Of course, this was not considered a cooperation
- 00:22:13but more of an occupation or exploitation
- 00:22:16Britain has actually also followed a policy of trade protectionism in its external trade
- 00:22:18especially for wool products.
- 00:22:20The average tariff on finished products was 50%,
- 00:22:22which was the highest among all European countries at that time.
- 00:22:24Until the 19th century,
- 00:22:25a very key figure named Ricardo appeared.
- 00:22:28Note that he has nothing to do with Li Ka-shing.
- 00:22:29He was an Englishman named David Ricardo
- 00:22:33He was a very famous master of classical economics,
- 00:22:36at that time, he proposed the theory of comparative advantage
- 00:22:37which meant that each country should divide labour
- 00:22:39and liberalise trade,
- 00:22:40each doing what they are good at,
- 00:22:42so that everyone would benefit
- 00:22:43and it became the cornerstone of modern trade theory.
- 00:22:45This wave of thought, along with the rapid technological advancements
- 00:22:48ed Britain to start lowering tariffs
- 00:22:50and engage in more frequent trade with various countries
- 00:22:53At that time, the proportion of global exports
- 00:22:54to the world's total GDP
- 00:22:56increased from 5% to more than 10%.
- 00:22:58This period was also called the first wave of globalisation
- 00:23:03However, in this wave of globalisation,
- 00:23:04two countries basically did not participate much
- 00:23:06and just kept silent on their own.
- 00:23:08As we mentioned just now, they are the United States and Germany.
- 00:23:10Especially the United States.
- 00:23:13Don't be fooled by the fact that the United States
- 00:23:14or rather in recent decades, has been promoting free trade
- 00:23:16in the early days of its establishment,
- 00:23:18it was known for trade protectionism.
- 00:23:19Until 1914,
- 00:23:21The U.S. federal government’s almost sole sources of income
- 00:23:23are tariffs and excise taxes
- 00:23:24Hamilton, the first Secretary of the Treasury of the United States,
- 00:23:27was the man who
- 00:23:28proposed infant industry protectionism
- 00:23:29He did not believe in Ricardo's theory of comparative advantage
- 00:23:32or at least he felt that it was not applicable to the U.S at that time.
- 00:23:34Look, after 1860,
- 00:23:35both Britain and France lowered tariff
- 00:23:37to less than 10%
- 00:23:39but on the contrary, the United States
- 00:23:40increased tariffs to account for more than 40%,
- 00:23:42becoming one of the countries with the highest import tariffs in the world.
- 00:23:46Between 1867 and 1900, during these three decades
- 00:23:49Trade protection helped increase the United States' steel production
- 00:23:51by more than 500 times
- 00:23:52The overall manufacturing industry in the U.S was also developing rapidly
- 00:23:54helping the U.S gradually overtake the UK
- 00:23:56So on the British side
- 00:23:57they only saw the benefits of free trade
- 00:23:59Ricardo, he may have said one less thing
- 00:24:00if one open, then the rest must open
- 00:24:02That's why we later had
- 00:24:03the famous quote from an unknown scholar
- 00:24:11Time moved into the 20th century
- 00:24:12World War I and the subsequent Great Depression
- 00:24:14caused global trade protectionism to begin to rise.
- 00:24:16In 1930, U.S
- 00:24:17introduced the famous "Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act"
- 00:24:20which increased tariffs on more than 20,000 U.S. goods
- 00:24:22by 20% to 60%
- 00:24:24However, what is different this time is that
- 00:24:26Europe started to retaliate
- 00:24:28tit for tat
- 00:24:29and launched retaliatory tariffs one after another
- 00:24:31The world entered a trade winter.
- 00:24:34The United States’ imports and exports decreased by two-thirds,
- 00:24:36and the proportion of global exports
- 00:24:37fell back to the level of a hundred years ago,
- 00:24:39this also heralded the end of the first wave of globalisation.
- 00:24:43The industry generally believes that
- 00:24:44this period of trade protectionism has greatly prolonged
- 00:24:47and deepened the recession in the U.S
- 00:24:48leading to an increase in unemployment in the U.S and around the world
- 00:24:51However, on the other hand,
- 00:24:52this lesson
- 00:24:53is also the key to starting the second wave of globalisation.
- 00:24:58After World War II,
- 00:24:58almost all countries in the world suffered
- 00:25:00the losses of the previous two decades of trade protectionism.
- 00:25:02Under the leadership of the U.S, they finally began to sit down for grand negotiations
- 00:25:05and signed the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade in 1947.
- 00:25:08The name GATT
- 00:25:09It may sound a bit unfamiliar to you
- 00:25:10but it has since evolved into
- 00:25:12a well-known organization now
- 00:25:14the WTO.
- 00:25:16In fact, after World War II,
- 00:25:17it is not that everyone immediately opened their hearts
- 00:25:19and started to embrace each other.
- 00:25:20The negotiations also went through a very long process,
- 00:25:22and trust was accumulated bit by bit.
- 00:25:24In 1949, the first negotiation in France,
- 00:25:26the countries agreed to
- 00:25:27jointly reduce more than 5,000 tariffs.
- 00:25:28In 1951, another round of negotiations in London
- 00:25:31reduced more than 8,000 tariffs.
- 00:25:32By the 1960s,
- 00:25:33the trust has actually been gradually accumulated.
- 00:25:35The level of trust is getting higher and more open,
- 00:25:37but there is another episode between the U.S and Europe.
- 00:25:40What is it
- 00:25:41the Chicken-Truck War
- 00:25:43not an official name.
- 00:25:44I came up with it
- 00:25:45But overall, the process of globalisation
- 00:25:47has been advancing steadily bit by bit.
- 00:25:48The average tariff within GATT
- 00:25:50was 22% in 1947.
- 00:25:52After several rounds of negotiations
- 00:25:53it dropped to 15% in the 1960s.
- 00:25:55By 2000, it had dropped to only 5%
- 00:25:57The proportion of exports in global GDP has been continuously rising
- 00:26:00Over the course of sixty years, it increased from 5% to 25%
- 00:26:02At the same time, along with the rapid growth of global GDP,
- 00:26:05it has entered a golden age of globalisation.
- 00:26:12In the past ten years, Brexit,
- 00:26:14and a series of high-tariff measures in the U.S
- 00:26:16and the China-US trade war
- 00:26:17have marked
- 00:26:18the beginning of a new round of trade protectionism in the world.
- 00:26:20Especially after the pandemic,
- 00:26:21many countries, whether active or passive,
- 00:26:23have set off a wave of economic nationalism,
- 00:26:25emphasising the protection of industry and domestic production.
- 00:26:29Actually, if we look at the entire content today
- 00:26:31we have analysed the pros and cons of tariffs
- 00:26:33and the corresponding strategies
- 00:26:34everyone should be clear that responding to trade sanction
- 00:26:36as the country being sanctioned
- 00:26:37from the perspective of the long-term game,
- 00:26:39you must have trade counterattacks
- 00:26:40and must retaliate tit for tat.
- 00:26:41Therefore, this kind of protective sentiment
- 00:26:43is actually extremely contagious.
- 00:26:44It is difficult to dissipate in a short period of time and
- 00:26:46is irreversible.
- 00:26:49In fact, in recent years, organisations like the WTO
- 00:26:51have also faced unprecedented crises.
- 00:26:52Its dispute settlement mechanism is gradually paralysed.
- 00:26:59It seems that global trade
- 00:27:00will most likely enter a
- 00:27:02long de-globalisation process.
- Tariffs
- Global Economy
- Trade Policy
- Economic Efficiency
- Consumer Impact
- Infant Industry Argument
- Trade Protectionism
- Game Theory
- WTO
- Economic Nationalism