The Air We Breathe

01:17:33
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=efM2VlCueZc

Summary

TLDRThe video analyzes the tendency of societies to overlook or accept injustices and destructive practices, using historical and contemporary examples. Through a humorous lens with references to shows like Futurama and The Simpsons, it critiques our current handling of air pollution and airborne diseases, drawing parallels to past public health failures like the cholera outbreaks. It questions why society often lacks the imagination to foresee and address future challenges, echoing themes of complacency despite technological advancement. Additionally, it critiques the economic concepts of trade-offs, suggesting a need for ambitious, transformative actions to combat issues like pollution.

Takeaways

  • 🧐 Societies often accept injustices that future generations may find shocking.
  • 🚀 Futurama highlights societal consistency despite technological advancements.
  • 💧 Air pollution today is paralleled with historic cholera outbreaks.
  • 👨‍🔬 John Snow's cholera investigation is a model for tackling modern pollution.
  • ⚖️ Trade-offs in policy can inhibit meaningful solutions.
  • 🏛️ Proper governance could more effectively address air pollution challenges.
  • 🏭 Current air quality issues could be viewed as negligence by future societies.
  • 🔄 Transformative change is necessary beyond just economic trade-offs.
  • 📊 Economics often undersells the possibility of multi-goal achievements.
  • 🎥 Satirical media like Futurama reflects on societal shortcomings.

Timeline

  • 00:00:00 - 00:05:00

    The speaker reflects on historical atrocities accepted by past generations, such as public executions and slavery, and questions the present-day blind spots. They use "Futurama," where Fry, a delivery boy, ends up in the future but still in a dead-end job, critiquing societal progress and satirizing optimistic sci-fi projections.

  • 00:05:00 - 00:10:00

    Fry's journey in "Futurama" continues by highlighting the unchanged nature of society despite technological advances. Robots in the story serve wealthy capitalists, and social issues like class disparity persist. The narrative satirizes science fiction's failure to predict significant societal changes, such as women's rights, focusing instead on superficial technological advancements.

  • 00:10:00 - 00:15:00

    The video discusses economic theories related to pollution, explaining negative externalities and how markets fail to account for pollution impacts. Despite the clear harm caused by air and water pollution, such as millions of annual deaths, society's collective inaction is critiqued. The creator shifts focus to building a community-funded platform free from sponsors.

  • 00:15:00 - 00:20:00

    While traditionally focusing on economics, the creator aims to highlight pollution's devastating impacts with robust evidence from various fields. They recount John Snow's groundbreaking work tracing cholera to contaminated water, illustrating the importance of examining environmental issues through an investigative and scientific lens to prevent similar modern hazards.

  • 00:20:00 - 00:25:00

    The discussion transitions to airborne diseases, addressing misconceptions about their transmission, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic. It scrutinizes outdated WHO guidelines and emphasizes updated understandings of airborne transmission, advocating for better ventilation to mitigate future health risks and highlighting past failures in addressing such issues.

  • 00:25:00 - 00:30:00

    The urgency of re-evaluating building designs to address airborne pathogens is underscored. The content critiques current responses to indoor air quality, suggesting investments in better ventilation could significantly reduce disease transmission. This shift in focus aims to enhance living and public health standards, adapting strategies from waterborne to airborne pollutants.

  • 00:30:00 - 00:35:00

    The significant health consequences of air pollution are emphasized through the case of Ella Kissi Debrah, highlighting the global struggle with meeting air quality standards. While low-income countries face the harshest impacts, the video argues that current pollution levels are unacceptable everywhere, using examples from India, China, and historical Western responses.

  • 00:35:00 - 00:40:00

    Reflecting on economic impacts, the video links pollution mitigation to improving not just environment but economic prosperity, citing studies like New Jersey's EZ Pass project, which reduced birth complications through decreased local pollution. China's aggressive air quality policies in recent years have notably improved life expectancy and quality, stressing policy efficacy.

  • 00:40:00 - 00:45:00

    The speaker critiques common viewpoints that suggest environmental economics inevitably involves detrimental trade-offs. Contrary to narratives like Konstantin Kisin's, they argue many ecological initiatives, such as addressing pollution, result in broad benefits and potential economic gains, challenging the notion of inherent compromise between economic and environmental goals.

  • 00:45:00 - 00:50:00

    Addressing outdated economic models like the Environmental Kuznets Curve, the video argues for more nuanced and effective policy paradigms. It warns against the complacency of assuming problems like pollution resolve themselves with economic growth, using examples to emphasize the necessity of proactive, imaginative political action for tangible environmental improvements.

  • 00:50:00 - 00:55:00

    By exploring the impact of efficient policies, like the successful sulfur trading scheme, the video suggests integrating environmental objectives into economic dialogue isn't a zero-sum game. Instead, through detailed case studies, it highlights potential synergies between economic policy and environmental conservation, suggesting varied strategies for comprehensive solutions.

  • 00:55:00 - 01:00:00

    The video continues to discuss how political motivations, rather than pure economics, often drive environmental policy decisions. It asserts that the historical focus on market-based solutions sometimes neglects the multifaceted benefits of regulation and proactive policy measures, making a case for diversified approaches to environmental challenges.

  • 01:00:00 - 01:05:00

    Contrary to arguments about economic efficiency, the video posits that transformative changes, like expanded public transport and improved ventilation, offer more substantial gains across multiple sectors than economically conservative approaches. It presents examples where prioritizing environmental health also boosts economic outcomes, challenging traditional economic trade-offs.

  • 01:05:00 - 01:10:00

    Specifically targeting American urban planning and the dominance of car-dependent infrastructure, the video criticizes systemic inertia preventing effective environmental solutions. Citing Oslo's radical car-reduction strategies and their payoff, it advocates for creative urban planning that prioritizes public health and environmental sustainability.

  • 01:10:00 - 01:17:33

    Summarizing the themes of environmental challenges and imaginative insufficiencies, the video stresses the necessity for bold action and visionary thinking beyond typical economic and policy frameworks. Through the allegory of "Futurama," it urges proactive environmental stewardship, stressing the urgency of reinventing societal priorities to secure a better future.

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Mind Map

Video Q&A

  • What is the main theme of the video?

    The video discusses societal complacency towards injustices and the need for a better future imagination, using Futurama as an example.

  • How does Futurama relate to the video's message?

    Futurama is used to comment on the unchanged aspects of society despite technological advancements.

  • What historical public health crisis is compared to modern pollution issues?

    The cholera outbreaks of the 19th century are compared to modern air pollution challenges.

  • What role does Futurama play in the video?

    Futurama is used as a satire that highlights society's shortcomings and lack of progress despite technological advancements.

  • What did John Snow do that is relevant to the video?

    John Snow pioneered the investigation of cholera's waterborne nature, an approach referenced in the discussion of how we handle air pollution today.

  • What are the modern challenges discussed in the video?

    The video discusses challenges of air pollution, airborne diseases, and societal complacency towards these issues.

  • What is a 'trade-off' as discussed in the video?

    Trade-offs refer to the costs associated with achieving certain goals, often leading to the compromise of other important outcomes.

  • What does the video suggest about future perspectives on present issues?

    It suggests that future generations may look back at our inaction on pollution as unfathomable neglect, similar to our view of historical injustices.

  • Does the video offer solutions to the discussed issues?

    Yes, it discusses the importance of proper government intervention and improved building designs to tackle air pollution.

  • What is the video's stance on the role of economics in addressing pollution?

    The video criticizes the economic focus on trade-offs and suggests a need for transformative change rather than mere market solutions.

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  • 00:00:00
    We often recoil in horror at the things that past  generations accepted. Why did people not just allow
  • 00:00:05
    but actively watch their fellow humans getting  hung, drawn and, quartered? Why did people accept
  • 00:00:11
    slavery and segregation? Why do people still  tolerate unelected leaders living in luxury
  • 00:00:17
    while the rest of the population starves? Why  did people ever watch The Big Bang Theory?
  • 00:00:22
    "Bazinga! Bazinga!"
  • 00:00:26
    It's easy to look back and realize  that all of these things were crimes against humanity.
  • 00:00:31
    What's more difficult is identifying  what we accept today that will tomorrow
  • 00:00:34
    be thought of in the same way. We  need to get better at Imagining the future.
  • 00:00:39
    In Futurama, protagonist Fry is  transported into the future by accidentally
  • 00:00:46
    being cryogenically frozen for 1,000 years. In the  year 2000, he was in a deadend job as a delivery
  • 00:00:52
    boy and an unhappy relationship. "I hate my life I hate my life I hate my life"
  • 00:00:57
    Entering the year 3000, he is excited about a world where you can easily go to space, along with tubes that easily transport you
  • 00:01:04
    everywhere while on Earth. "My parents...my coworkers...my girlfriend...I'll never see any of them again..."
  • 00:01:13
    "Yahoo!" By the end of the first episode, Fry has a  new job. He works for a distant descendant of his,
  • 00:01:19
    getting the chance to go into space to transport  things to far off and wonderous planets. In one way,
  • 00:01:26
    his dream has come true. He'll see the universe,  which was unimaginable in his year 2000 life.
  • 00:01:32
    But when you think about the job you realize that...  he is still a delivery boy. "Your permanent career assignment."
  • 00:01:40
    "Delivery boy!? No, not again!" It seems that despite the glossy coating, the future is not
  • 00:01:46
    all that different to now and the show is filled  with this kind of commentary. There are robots with
  • 00:01:51
    genuine artificial intelligence but they don't  seem to have made the world more magical. They are
  • 00:01:56
    all owned and controlled by ruthless capitalist  'mom' and it is repeatedly implied that they are a
  • 00:02:02
    kind of underclass. "For thousands of years robots have slaved for humanity." The first time fry meets
  • 00:02:09
    the robot Bender, another main character who will  go on to become his best friend, Bender is about
  • 00:02:14
    to use a futuristic booth to 'off himself'. "Please select mode of death: quick and painless or slow and horrible."
  • 00:02:23
    Creator of the show Matt Groening was  satirizing science fiction writers and media that
  • 00:02:27
    imagined an advanced technological future  which nevertheless was pretty similar to our own.
  • 00:02:32
    in the Jetsons, the male bread winner model of 1950s  America is alive and well alongside flying cars.
  • 00:02:39
    This was, of course, also true of the  Flintstones, which is set in the past.
  • 00:02:49
    The male writers could imagine flying cars but not  the entry of women into the workforce and one of
  • 00:02:54
    those things happened very soon after the cartoon  was created, while the other is yet to materialize.
  • 00:03:00
    In a 1999 interview, Groening tried to distinguish  his approach from traditional sci-fi:
  • 00:03:26
    Whether through a lack of imagination or just a desire to make audiences
  • 00:03:29
    feel comfortable, sci-fi often transplants  familiar situations to the future. There are
  • 00:03:34
    plenty of examples in Futurama which play with  this idea. Many famous 20th Century people are in
  • 00:03:40
    the show, just preserved as heads in jars. Earth  is now unified but seemingly run from America
  • 00:03:46
    with a flag that resembles America's. Everyone is  still watching too much TV and the most popular
  • 00:03:52
    show is a toad who literally hypnotizes you into  watching. The world is still hugely consumerist,
  • 00:03:58
    with incredible technology gears towards fast food.
  • 00:04:01
    "Now this is what I call a thousand years of progress: a Bavarian cream dog that's also self microwaving".
  • 00:04:07
    The paradoxical world created in Futurama was even hinted at in Groening's earlier creation, The Simpsons.
  • 00:04:12
    "So you want a realistic, down to earth show that's completely off the wall and swarming with magic robots?"
  • 00:04:22
    In one of the most famous episodes, Richard Nixon's  head is reelected as president of Earth, attached
  • 00:04:25
    to a giant killer robot. My favourite part of the  show comes when Fry is transported into the year
  • 00:04:31
    4,000. This is to be with his old girlfriend  Michelle who has, via freezing, made her way
  • 00:04:37
    into the year 3000, once again repeating the  inescapability of Fry's 20th century life.
  • 00:04:43
    But Michelle...doesn't like the future at all.
  • 00:04:47
    "Michelle, this is Leela" "Ahhh!"
  • 00:04:49
    She proposes that the two of them freeze themselves for another thousand years to get a fresh start in the future.
  • 00:04:56
    Upon arriving in what seems to be a post-apocalyptic was land and getting kidnapped by a gang of children. Michelle
  • 00:05:04
    once again loses interest in Fry. "You were a loser in the year 2000 and you're a loser in the year 4000!"
  • 00:05:11
    "Yeah, but in the year 3000 I had it all: several friends, a low paying job."
  • 00:05:17
    Then Fry's friends from the year 3000 inexplicably  show up in the year 4000. It turns out that Fry and
  • 00:05:23
    Michelle's cryogenic chamber was removed and  transported across the USA a few days after
  • 00:05:28
    they were frozen so they're not in the future, but  in Los Angeles. Fry doesn't believe them which
  • 00:05:33
    leads in my opinion, to one of the most memorable  and illustrative exchanges in the entire show.
  • 00:05:39
    "So you're saying these aren't the decaying ruins of  New York in the year 4000?" "You wish! You're in Los Angeles."
  • 00:05:46
    "But there was this gang of 10-year-olds  with guns." "Exactly you're in LA."
  • 00:05:50
    "But everyone is driving around in cars shooting at each other!"  "That's LA for you..."
  • 00:05:54
    "But the air is green and there's no sign of civilization whatsoever" "He just won't stop with the social commentary..."
  • 00:06:00
    UE: DAMN RIGHT
  • 00:06:25
    In modern economics, the notion that  pollution should be prevented is present
  • 00:06:29
    in every every textbook or introductory class.  Negative externalities are defined as situations
  • 00:06:34
    where a market transaction has a negative impact  on parties other than those in the transaction. As
  • 00:06:40
    my own undergraduate textbook put it:
  • 00:06:59
    Pollution is the canonical example of  a negative externality. It's no exaggeration to
  • 00:07:05
    say that most economics textbooks will use it as  their first example. Because the costs of pollution
  • 00:07:09
    are not paid by those doing it, the offenders will  produce more than they should. In other words, when
  • 00:07:15
    it comes to pollution the market price is too low.  People need to face the costs of the harm their
  • 00:07:21
    actions cause to others. The solution is generally  government intervention to 'correct' the externality
  • 00:07:27
    by making the cost to the producer and consumer  align with the cost to society. With pollution, the
  • 00:07:33
    most obvious way to do this is by making them  pay money - for example, with a tax on emitting
  • 00:07:37
    carbon, or a scheme where businesses buy and sell  permits to emit up to a preset limit. Because air
  • 00:07:43
    and water do not really respect human boundaries -  borders, property rights - you can't prevent the harm
  • 00:07:49
    from spreading. Air and water flow freely around  the world, so if they are contaminated in one
  • 00:07:54
    time and place, this contamination can easily make  its way to other times and places. Air pollution
  • 00:07:59
    from China reaches Los Angeles; giant patches of  garbage coalesce in the middle of the Pacific Ocean.
  • 00:08:05
    These forms of pollution are causing clear harm  to humanity. The 2017 Lancet Commission estimated
  • 00:08:11
    that air pollution is killing 7 million people per  year. Water pollution is killing around 2 million
  • 00:08:16
    people and other forms like workplace toxins or  soil pollution together total over 1 million. All
  • 00:08:22
    in all, the Lancet Commission estimates that 10  million people a year are killed by pollution.
  • 00:08:27
    That's roughly comparable to the amount covid has  killed so far in the world...so why are we doing so little about it? little about it?
  • 00:08:34
    But first, a word from this video's sponsor...nobody! For a while, I've been juggling this
  • 00:08:39
    channel with other things and I've been unable  to commit to it 100%. But now I want to do just
  • 00:08:44
    that and I want to ramp things up. I want to create  more of a community on Patreon, with more exclusive
  • 00:08:50
    benefits for people who sign up. I want a channel  that only relies on Patreon income - as well as
  • 00:08:55
    passive YouTube income - without in video sponsors.  I feel that's more in the spirit of what we're
  • 00:09:00
    doing here. So my Patreon will now feature: monthly  videos alongside the content on the main channel;
  • 00:09:06
    all my previous scripts, edited for readability;  a reading club for £5 a month patrons and up,
  • 00:09:12
    we'll likely start with the Heretics Guide to  Global Finance, likely within a month of this
  • 00:09:16
    video going out; the £50 tier is basically a joke  at the moment but if enough people sign up to it
  • 00:09:22
    I might consider something big like a university  level course in pluralist economics. All of this
  • 00:09:26
    will be accompanied by more frequent videos  on the main channel. As a patron, you will get
  • 00:09:31
    a chance to review the draft scripts and draft  videos and give me feedback and thank you to
  • 00:09:35
    my patrons - among others - for feedback on this  script. I've also created a new £1 a month
  • 00:09:40
    tier called Junior Unlearner for people who are  struggling. It all helps and you'll still get most
  • 00:09:44
    of the benefits. The more I get, the better the  channel and community will be. I'm taking a bit
  • 00:09:49
    of a leap here without a sponsor so I hope it  pays off...and also I'm worried this video might
  • 00:09:54
    get demonetized because of the sheer volume of Futurama clips "But this is HD TV... it's better resolution than the real world."
  • 00:10:01
    Anyway, let's carry on. Regular viewers might find this video a
  • 00:10:04
    little bit different: in a way, pollution, disease, and air quality are out of my wheelhouse as an
  • 00:10:10
    economist. However, a lot of the techniques used to  study them are used heavily in applied economics,
  • 00:10:15
    which is my field. All of the evidence gathered is  strong - close to my ideal standard for evidence in
  • 00:10:20
    social science. There are also some important  economic ideas that relate to the environment
  • 00:10:25
    beyond just externalities, and we'll get to those.  Plus, I personally they just think it's a massive
  • 00:10:30
    issue and everyone should be sounding the alarm. [Music]
  • 00:10:38
    In the mid 19th Century, there was a doctor called Jon Snow. "You know nothing, Jon Snow."
  • 00:10:44
    Oh, was that too obvious a reference for you? You [ __ ]  snob.
  • 00:10:47
    At the time, cholera was rife in London, having  arrived from Europe during the 1800s. It was sudden,
  • 00:10:52
    grizzly, and often fatal. There were numerous cholera epidemics throughout the 19th Century and in the
  • 00:10:57
    1850s, Snow became one of many people who sought to  understand and eradicate the disease. There was a
  • 00:11:03
    particularly bad cholera outbreak in 1854 and Snow  took what's been called a 'shoe leather' approach
  • 00:11:09
    to understanding its causes. He investigated the  world, interviewing real people to find out the
  • 00:11:13
    incidents of cholera, expending 'shoe leather' in the  process. In other words, he went outside = something
  • 00:11:20
    many economists yearn to do one day. At the  time, people really didn't know what caused
  • 00:11:24
    these diseases. The theory of germs hadn't been  invented yet. People still thought that disease
  • 00:11:29
    traveled through the miasma of small particles  in the air, most readily detectable by smell. Not
  • 00:11:35
    completely ridiculous given the relationship  between dangerous organisms and smell...but
  • 00:11:40
    ultimately wrong and unsuitable for prevention and  cure. Miasma was a mystical and ethereal idea that
  • 00:11:46
    couldn't be isolated in the way germs later came  to be. Even though medicine was in this primitive
  • 00:11:51
    stage, Snow gradually pieced together the truth  that cholera was a waterborne infectious disease.
  • 00:11:56
    He thought that it was caused by a living  organism that managed managed to get into
  • 00:11:59
    the body and multiply, poisoning its victim it  would then escape through water expelled by the
  • 00:12:05
    victims through processes we won't discuss, then  get back into the water supply, infecting further
  • 00:12:10
    victims. Snow's approach was that of a detective:  he first looked at a few telling case studies.
  • 00:12:15
    When sailors from a place where cholera was not  widespread landed at a cholera-stricken port, they
  • 00:12:20
    quickly caught the disease. John Harnold, the first  recorded case in England, had arrived from Hamburg,
  • 00:12:25
    which was rife with cholera. The next case was a man  who later stayed in the same room as Harnold. All
  • 00:12:31
    of this seemed to point towards interpersonal  contagion. Snow plotted a map of cases. (This
  • 00:12:36
    isn't the original map; it has been updated with  colors to make it more legible to a crowd with a
  • 00:12:40
    shorter attention span than they had in the 19th  Century). The red circles are larger the more cases
  • 00:12:45
    there are, while the blue taps represent water  pumps. It is plain to see that the red circles
  • 00:12:50
    cluster around a tap in the middle of the map  on Broad Street. As Snow said:
  • 00:13:21
    The big finding was yet to come. Snow's research and
  • 00:13:23
    acumen led him to a method of investigation which  would be considered credible in economics today, at
  • 00:13:28
    least in broad strokes. He noticed that there were  two sets of flats next door to one another and
  • 00:13:33
    one was beset by cholera while the other was doing  relatively well. He found that the water supply of
  • 00:13:40
    the infected one was contaminated by, well... "Ahh yeah"  "Did it just get warmer?"
  • 00:13:45
    The other set of flats got its water from a cleaner supply. London had several water companies and they all had different ways
  • 00:13:50
    of acquiring and filtering their water. Many got  it from the Thames River, which was full of sewage,
  • 00:13:55
    but the Lambeth Water Company had moved its intake  point up stream, before the sewage was dumped into
  • 00:14:00
    the river. Snow compared cholera incidents from Lambeth  to that of the Southwark and Vauxhall Company, which
  • 00:14:05
    still got its water downstream of the sewage pipe.  Uh, by the way although these refer to different
  • 00:14:10
    boroughs of London, in practice they both supplied  adjacent households. As Snow observed:
  • 00:14:39
    There was a huge mixture of people being supplied by each company. Nobody
  • 00:14:43
    understood where their water came from and they  certainly hadn't chosen their house with that in
  • 00:14:48
    mind, if they' truly chosen it at all. People didn't  yet know that cholera came from water, so they really
  • 00:14:54
    were unwitting subjects in a great experiment.  This is the ideal situation for social
  • 00:14:59
    scientists: being able to treat everybody like  inanimate chess pieces on a great board. Today,
  • 00:15:04
    this kind of approach is known as 'difference  in differences' and it's extremely common in
  • 00:15:08
    quantitative research trying to investigate the  causes of things. The 'difference' in the incidence
  • 00:15:13
    of cholera over time could be measured in each  household, then the further difference between
  • 00:15:18
    households supplied by one company versus the  other could be calculated. The difference in
  • 00:15:23
    differences. The results of this experiment were  Stark. Deaths were an order of magnitude higher in
  • 00:15:29
    the households that received the sewage water:  3,155 per 10,000 people for the Southwark and Vauxhall
  • 00:15:34
    company versus only 37 per 10,000 for the Lambeth  Company. Snow reasoned that about 1,000 lives
  • 00:15:41
    would have been saved if the former had moved  their water intake point up the Thames, before
  • 00:15:45
    the sewage release. And Broad Street? They had their  water contaminated by a nearby cesspit, which is
  • 00:15:51
    why cases clustered around their pump on Snow's  map. It would be decades before the full theory
  • 00:15:56
    of germs was developed and Snow's theory was not  universally accepted until that time. Four years
  • 00:16:01
    after his study, the summer of 1858 saw the Great  Stink in London. There was visible, pungent sewage
  • 00:16:07
    in the Thames and due to the miasma theory that  disease traveled via foul air, this sparked enough
  • 00:16:12
    outrage to effect change. It is also important to  remember that it really, really, really smelled, like
  • 00:16:18
    throughout London. Enough for serious historians  and observers to call it the 'Great Stink'.
  • 00:16:23
    "You guys realize you live in a sewer, right?" Joseph Bazalgette, another hero of this story, designed the solution.
  • 00:16:29
    The reason for the Great Stink and cholera outbreaks  was easy to identify for a modern observer: the
  • 00:16:34
    Thames was basically an open sewer. Most waste was  dumped directly there or otherwise found its way
  • 00:16:40
    in. Drinking water was then pumped directly  from it. People were drinking actual [ __ ] .
  • 00:16:44
    Bazalgette helped to design a tunnel system for  the sewers, with pumps aiding the transport of
  • 00:16:49
    the sewage to less populated areas and to the  sea. The project took over 10 years, but once it
  • 00:16:54
    was completed cholera outbreaks stopped almost  immediately. We still use the Bazalgette sewage system
  • 00:16:59
    today. In the epidemic of 1866, New York followed  Snow's recommendations and cut their death rate
  • 00:17:05
    by a factor of 10, surprisingly in line with his  quantitative prediction from London. Yet as late
  • 00:17:10
    as 1892, Hamburg instead dug up all their corpses  and carted them through town on the grounds that cholera
  • 00:17:16
    was spread...through the ground. That had predictably disastrous effects. "Bring out your dead!"
  • 00:17:23
    When we look back, it seems pretty disgusting that people were drinking sewage water. It's not only gross in itself
  • 00:17:28
    (You know, because it's...poo) but because it was  responsible for countless deaths and ill health
  • 00:17:34
    at the time. It seems unfathomable to us that we'd  allow this kind of water into our drinking taps.
  • 00:17:40
    We'd never tolerate anything like that today, would we?
  • 00:17:47
    We breathe 8-10 litres of air per minute. *Fry aggressively breathing*
  • 00:17:53
    That is a vast amount of air: going into our lungs, floating around outside,
  • 00:17:59
    going into buildings both going to and coming  from people who are also breathing 8 to 10 litres
  • 00:18:04
    of air per minute. To give you a rough idea of  scale, if we were drinking 8 to 10 litres of water
  • 00:18:10
    per day, we'd be overdoing it. We breathe about  10,000 litres of air per day. Airborne diseases
  • 00:18:17
    therefore have ample opportunity to get into  our systems and circulate, perhaps much more
  • 00:18:23
    readily than waterborne diseases do. Measles  and Tuberculosis are two examples of deadly
  • 00:18:29
    airborne diseases that travel through aerosols,  tiny particles that stay suspended in the air and
  • 00:18:35
    can travel across long distances. I'm not trying  to fearmonger here: air isn't causing a disease as
  • 00:18:41
    deadly as cholera. Still, if we look back and wonder  how people tolerated such disease ridden water,
  • 00:18:48
    we might wonder why they tolerate such disease  ridden air today. One answer might be that dirty
  • 00:18:53
    air is less visible than dirty water. Another  might be that it's less visceral: the thought of
  • 00:18:59
    breathing dirty air doesn't really make me sick  like the thought of drinking dirty water does. But
  • 00:19:05
    a final reason might be that we've underestimated  just how many diseases are airborne.
  • 00:19:12
    Early in the covid pandemic, you may remember that we thought the Coronavirus was transported by droplets: as
  • 00:19:18
    in, you sneeze or cough and those droplets land on  a person or surface, getting into other people's
  • 00:19:23
    systems through their noses or mouths. This is  why everyone was washing their hands for 20
  • 00:19:28
    seconds in 2020, to get rid of any stray droplets  that might find their way in and infect you. There
  • 00:19:33
    were also concerns about transmission through  contact with surfaces or through fecal-oral
  • 00:19:38
    transmission, which is one way cholera got around. All  of these had in common that cleaning was the most important tool for prevention:
  • 00:20:04
    Early in the pandemic, the WHO had tweeted: 'fact covid-19 is not airborne' but around a year in it became apparent that
  • 00:20:10
    the WHO guidelines for what counts as airborne were  all wrong. They had made the distinction between
  • 00:20:15
    airborne versus droplet particles at 5 microns  across, or 5 millionths of a meter. (About that
  • 00:20:22
    much). The physicist Lindsey Marr could quickly see  that this made no sense. Depending on things like
  • 00:20:26
    temperature and wind, bigger particles could  become airborne. The 5 micron guideline was
  • 00:20:32
    always pretty arbitrary but ultimately just  wrong. Nobody knew where five microns even
  • 00:20:37
    came from. You'd think it would be from modern,  rigorous trials that were repeated, say, every
  • 00:20:42
    decade by public health authorities. Actually it  was a misreading of a random paper written by
  • 00:20:47
    an engineer about tuberculosis from 1955. Because  of course. As early as 1934, William Firth Wells had
  • 00:20:55
    collaborated with his wife Mildred Weeks Wells  to investigate airborne diseases. For context,
  • 00:21:00
    this was closer to Jon Snow's investigation into  cholera than to the Coronavirus Pandemic. Do you
  • 00:21:05
    feel old yet? The Wells' work seem to suggest  a disease was airborne if it was under 100
  • 00:21:10
    microns, not five. That's a pretty big difference:  the WHO was out by a factor of 20. Where did the
  • 00:21:16
    5 micron cut off come from? William Wells was  investigating tuberculosis, which can be deadly if
  • 00:21:23
    it gets into the lungs. Wells had noticed that the  mucus in the nose and throat could quite easily capture
  • 00:21:28
    tuberculosis particles above five microns,  rendering them harmless. An experiment with
  • 00:21:33
    bunnies confirmed that they only became infected  when a fine mist - under five microns - containing the
  • 00:21:38
    virus was pumped into the chambers. A coarse  mist - over five microns - which also contained
  • 00:21:44
    tuberculosis was ineffective. (Poor bunnies). In the  1950s, Alexander Langmuir, the chief epidemiologist
  • 00:21:51
    of the Center for Disease Control and prevention  or CDC, was worried about chemical weapons during
  • 00:21:56
    the Korean War. For this reason, he lifted the five  micron number precisely because particles under
  • 00:22:02
    this amount could be useful in chemical weapons.  Like the tiny tuberculosis particles, they could
  • 00:22:07
    get into the lungs and do massive damage. So even  though five microns was only relevant for one
  • 00:22:13
    disease and designed specifically to investigate  not whether that disease was airborne but whether
  • 00:22:18
    it could bypass the body's defenses, it all got  lumped together. Despite having nothing to do with
  • 00:22:22
    the physics, five microns became the standard for  whether or not any disease was airborne and worked
  • 00:22:27
    its way into WHO guidelines. And this was partially  because of political concerns over chemical
  • 00:22:33
    warfare. A bit of a mess, to be honest. As Lindsay Marr tried to rectify this, she encountered a great deal
  • 00:22:39
    of resistance from public health officials, partly  because such institutions are pretty rigid, partly
  • 00:22:44
    because she was a physicist not a physician, and  - let's be honest - likely in part because of some
  • 00:22:49
    good old-fashioned sexism. Eventually, public health  institutions relented and admitted that the Coronavirus
  • 00:22:54
    was airborne, although their communication on  the matter remains confusing. It's difficult
  • 00:22:59
    to know how harmful this misconception was for  recommendations made during the pandemic. On the
  • 00:23:05
    one hand, we may have wasted a lot of time washing  our hands and cleansing surfaces and putting up
  • 00:23:10
    barriers to block droplets in schools, which  if anything made covid worse. We underemphasize
  • 00:23:15
    ventilation and the importance of outdoor spaces,  making transmission worse and lockdown less
  • 00:23:20
    bearable. On the other hand, the WHO was recommending  masks even when they thought covid traveled in
  • 00:23:25
    droplets and they work on both kinds of virus. It's  also worth saying that institutions are sometimes
  • 00:23:30
    rigid for good reason. They can't just change  because of every person coming along with their
  • 00:23:35
    Brave New Theory of Everything, like the people  who appear in my live chat. Overall, it's hard to
  • 00:23:40
    conclude that completely misdiagnosing the virus  had no negative effects. Most important is that
  • 00:23:45
    we have neglected airborne diseases like covid  and flu for too long and now that we understand
  • 00:23:51
    our mistakes, there's no excuse. Just like after  Jon Snow published his findings, we have clear
  • 00:23:56
    evidence. Just like the Great Stink of 1858, we have  had a big and noticeable event to draw political
  • 00:24:02
    attention to the problem. One of the ironies of  history is that the discrediting of the miasma
  • 00:24:07
    theory from Snow's time - which, remember, is the idea  that disease traveled via smell, may have led to us
  • 00:24:13
    being too sanguine about airborne infections. The  work of the Well duo in the 1930s was largely
  • 00:24:18
    dismissed by people like Langmuir because Airborne  diseases seemed to hark back to the vague idea of
  • 00:24:23
    an ethereal mist in the air that carried the  disease. But...isn't it? Kind of? With Airborne
  • 00:24:30
    diseases? One contemporary scientist joked that if  we'd still believed in miasma theory, we might
  • 00:24:35
    have contained covid better. A 2021 letter by 29  prominent scientists called for a paradigm shift
  • 00:24:41
    in the way that we combat diseases like covid:
  • 00:25:05
    Huhh!!! That's the name of the video!!
  • 00:25:07
    We spend 90% of our time indoors. Probably 95% if you're  a YouTuber who works from home and has sprained
  • 00:25:13
    his ankle. (Sign up to my Patreon to pay for my  rehabilitation). For a long time, the design of
  • 00:25:19
    buildings proceeded as if airborne pathogens were  not too much of a problem, focusing on other goals
  • 00:25:25
    like comfort, energy use, or temperature. Reflecting  their relative lack of attention to the topic, the
  • 00:25:30
    WHO does not really have clear guidelines  for designing these systems to control the
  • 00:25:35
    level of respiratory infections in indoor spaces.  There's a lot we don't know, precisely because we
  • 00:25:40
    haven't been sufficiently focused on airborne  pathogens. Although we understand respiratory
  • 00:25:44
    illnesses in theory, in practice our approach  to dealing with them is not much better than
  • 00:25:49
    our approach to waterborne infections. In the  19th Century, the guidelines we had for covid
  • 00:25:53
    and other diseases limited how aggressively we  tried to prevent them. As the letter puts it:
  • 00:26:15
    For a long time, we had been doing nothing. But now, indoor air quality is starting to get the attention it deserves.
  • 00:26:21
    It goes beyond covid, too: in 2018, two chemists called the  variety of harmful substances we are exposed to
  • 00:26:27
    inside an 'indoor chemical cocktail'. On top of  airborne pathogens from breathing, we release
  • 00:26:32
    a lot of carbon dioxide ourselves, which can  accumulate. Stoves and fires release particles
  • 00:26:37
    of pollution; paint and materials used in building  release dangerous toxins known as 'volatile organic
  • 00:26:43
    compounds'; even the use of cosmetics and deodorant  can contribute.
  • 00:26:47
    "Fry, think fast!" *chokes* "Get it, it's chlorine! Hahaha"
  • 00:26:55
    Since the pandemic, there has been a  worrying uptick in a number of diseases,
  • 00:26:58
    many of them respiratory. This owes to complex  factors: maybe immune systems were weakened during
  • 00:27:04
    lockdown; people are getting fewer vaccinations in  general; poverty and living conditions have gotten
  • 00:27:09
    worse in some locations; and climate change may  even be contributing too. Regardless of the exact
  • 00:27:14
    causes, both Influenza and Respiratory Syncytial Virus have worsened across the globe. Because
  • 00:27:20
    people breathe in and also out, most strategies  for combating infection revolve around ventilation.
  • 00:27:26
    Catherine Noakes, an expert on indoor air quality  and one of the scientists who penned the letter,
  • 00:27:31
    suggests that the air in your average room should  change completely between four to six times in an
  • 00:27:36
    hour. In 2020, while the WHO was still officially  claiming covid was transmitted by droplets, Noakes'
  • 00:27:43
    own work was recommending ventilation and  chiding the WHO for underestimating the risk
  • 00:27:47
    of covid being airborne. It also suggested that  in practice, ventilation can help significantly
  • 00:27:52
    with both droplet and airborne diseases, and it  can be difficult to know exactly which is more
  • 00:27:57
    prevalent in a given indoor environment. Clearly,  ventilation also helps with other dangerous
  • 00:28:02
    pathogens like volatile organic compounds. "I'm sure those windmills will keep them cool!"
  • 00:28:07
    "Windmills do not work that way! Good night!" So *laughs* when I looked into the ventilation literature, I hoped to find
  • 00:28:13
    some cool diagrams and simulations to illustrate  all of this to you. As you can see, they're mostly
  • 00:28:18
    just funny drawings with, like, stick figures with  little dots of airborne diseases moving around. I'm
  • 00:28:24
    not trying to throw any shade; I just think it's  quite cute that these papers on a very serious
  • 00:28:28
    topic which contain advanced medical knowledge,  rigorous experiments, and fancy mathematics,
  • 00:28:33
    culminate in these illustrations. There's even a  sun shining, like the kind of picture I drew when
  • 00:28:38
    I was five . I's just missing the blue sky only  at the top. There are a few different takeaways
  • 00:28:43
    from Noakes' work: public buildings are the most  important due to the volume of people and the
  • 00:28:48
    fact that individuals cannot easily modify the  environment, for example by opening a window.
  • 00:28:53
    The ideal is to bring in new air: cleaning and  disinfecting existing air is expensive and less
  • 00:28:58
    effective. Portable air cleaners can help in  the absence of entire ventilation systems.
  • 00:29:03
    Ultraviolet lights can also help to kill  some pathogens, especially in environments
  • 00:29:07
    where outdoor ventilation is limited. And while  I don't want to place too much responsibility
  • 00:29:11
    on individuals, you might want to think  about how often you open your windows,
  • 00:29:15
    especially when cooking, smoking, burning candles,  handling toxic waste, spraying deodrant directly
  • 00:29:20
    into your own eyes just to feel something, you  know, and so on. Literally every time I work on
  • 00:29:24
    this script I end up opening my windows.  Although that might let in more... [Music]
  • 00:29:32
    in 2013, Ella Kissi Debrah died at just 9 years  old after years of sporadic trips to hospital
  • 00:29:39
    and multiple seizures. In 2020, she became the  first person ever to have air pollution listed
  • 00:29:46
    as a cause of her death. The coroner said that  the London Borough of Lewisham, where she lived,
  • 00:29:51
    had nitrogen dioxide and particulate matter  levels that exceeded legal limits. Researchers
  • 00:29:57
    have estimated that living in London is equivalent  to smoking about 150 cigarettes a year. Now that...is
  • 00:30:04
    as much as...well I suppose smoking 150 cigarettes  a year communicates the point effectively. London
  • 00:30:10
    is far from the worst, though. According to the  Lancet Commission in 2019, 99% of the world's
  • 00:30:17
    population was living in places where the WHO air  quality guideline levels were not met. There are
  • 00:30:23
    two broad categories of air pollution: first, deadly  gases like ozone, carbon monoxide, and sulfur oxide.
  • 00:30:29
    Each of these are directly poisonous and each  has their own individual effects, for instance
  • 00:30:34
    sulfur oxide in sufficient quantities can affect  the cardiovascular system, causing heart problems
  • 00:30:40
    and can even cause type 2 diabetes. The second  category of pollution is the more general
  • 00:30:44
    particulate matter, which is particles suspended  in the air. Researchers are usually concerned
  • 00:30:49
    about fine particulate matter - under 2.5 microns - as with tuberculosis, this can lodge inside the
  • 00:30:56
    respiratory tract and inflame the lungs, impeding  the efficiency of breathing. Inflammation can
  • 00:31:01
    become chronic and spread to the bloodstream, once  more affecting the cardiovascular system. There are
  • 00:31:06
    more subtle influences of these compounds. It  may not be fully understood, but it seems that
  • 00:31:11
    especially fine particles can get into the nervous  system and impair cognitive function, leading to
  • 00:31:16
    fatigue or even to anxiety and depression. As  you might expect, any effects on children are
  • 00:31:21
    pronounced and longterm. The Lancet Commission  reports that air pollution kills 6.5 million
  • 00:31:27
    people each year, 10% of all Global deaths it also  tops the list of avoidable deaths, according to our
  • 00:31:33
    world in data. We really have no excuse. India  stands out because it has 13 of the top 14
  • 00:31:40
    polluted cities in the world. 1 million people  a year die of air pollution in the country. In
  • 00:31:45
    November 2021, Delhi shut down for months because  of toxic smog which was equivalent to smoking
  • 00:31:52
    several packets of cigarettes...per day. The city  has the highest rate of respiratory illness in
  • 00:31:58
    the world. China has struggled with air pollution.  too. The other city in that top 14 list is Hotan
  • 00:32:03
    in the Northwestern region of Xinjiang. You may  remember this 2013 picture of Beijing and while
  • 00:32:09
    the billboard was not there to replace the sun - it  was just an advert - the pollution was real. 185 of
  • 00:32:15
    the 350 worst polluted cities in the world are  in China. Nearly 92% of pollution related deaths
  • 00:32:22
    occur in low income and middle inome countries and  in countries at every income level, disease caused
  • 00:32:28
    by pollution is most prevalent among minorities  and the marginalized. Even in 19th Century London
  • 00:32:34
    the rich suffered less from cholera because their  water was filtered. Economist Alex Tabarrok has
  • 00:32:39
    claimed 'air pollution is even worse than you  think' in a really interesting talk which gave
  • 00:32:44
    me some great sources for this video. I'd play some  of Tabarrok's actual lecture but the audio quality is
  • 00:32:49
    so bad that it deserves its own Lancet Commission.  In a blog post Tabarrok states:
  • 00:33:26
    A 2011 study looked at the the introduction of EZ Pass tolls in New Jersey and Pennsylvania.
  • 00:33:31
    Traditional toll booths required you to pay a person, then it upgraded
  • 00:33:35
    to a machine using cash, then to card. EZ Pass tolls instead recognize your license plate and
  • 00:33:41
    charge you automatically so you don't have to  stop at all when driving through. As you can see
  • 00:33:45
    from this picture of a toll in the area beforehand,  the- holy [ __ ] the motorways in the USA actually
  • 00:33:50
    look like this? Ban cars! EZ Pass tolls massively reduce traffic around the toll booth
  • 00:33:55
    and therefore reduce emissions. Of most concern  with cars is carbon monoxide or CO, which they
  • 00:34:01
    emit in buckets and which is extremely dangerous.  "Gas was an environmental disaster anyway. Now we use alternative fuels."
  • 00:34:08
    "Like what?" "Whale oil" As the authors of the study put it:
  • 00:34:43
    They look at the areas around the tolls before
  • 00:34:45
    and after the introduction of the EZ Passes.  The tolls were changed quite quickly and were
  • 00:34:50
    not part of a general anti-air pollution campaign.  They were designed to alleviate congestion, just as
  • 00:34:55
    with Jon Snow and the taps, there's a good argument  that people weren't really aware of any of this so
  • 00:35:00
    their behaviour doesn't confound the estimates. For  instance, rich healthy people moving into the area
  • 00:35:05
    knowing it will become less polluted. It seems  like a sudden unanticipated change or 'exogenous'
  • 00:35:11
    in economists' parlance. They plot the toll plazas  that were automated in green. They then look
  • 00:35:16
    at people who live within 2 km of them, as well  as any nearby measures of air pollution. Using
  • 00:35:22
    methods which are similar to Snow's in spirit but  a bit more sophisticated in practice, they estimate
  • 00:35:27
    the difference in differences for birth weight and  premature births. This compares the change among
  • 00:35:32
    those who live close to the tolls, to the change  among those who live further away. Even looking
  • 00:35:36
    at the map, you can see clear echoes of Snow's  approach. They found big effects for a study like
  • 00:35:42
    this: the introduction of the EZ tolls reduced  premature births by 10.8% and reduced incidences
  • 00:35:48
    of low birth weight by 11.8%. In concrete terms,  this means 255 pre-term births were averted, along
  • 00:35:55
    with 275 low weight births. Of course, many  of these will be the same baby as many pre-term
  • 00:36:01
    births are low weight. The effects don't compound;  they're just two reflections of the same thing.
  • 00:36:06
    Still, pretty remarkable stuff. Unfortunately, the  nearby monitors can't measure carbon monoxide, but
  • 00:36:12
    they do measure a 7 to 20% reduction in nitrogen  dioxide, which the authors estimate should map
  • 00:36:18
    on to a much larger reduction in CO. So you can  see that a lot of this is preventable. In 2013,
  • 00:36:25
    China's Government declared war on air pollution.  Among the steps they took were: prohibiting new
  • 00:36:30
    coal power plants in key areas; requiring existing  coal plants to reduce emissions or replacing them
  • 00:36:35
    with natural gas; restricting the number of cars  on the road; reducing iron and steel production;
  • 00:36:40
    removing coal boilers from homes to replace them  with gas or electric ones. This is all pretty
  • 00:36:45
    aggressive: they literally curtailed industry  and changed the appliances in individual homes.
  • 00:36:51
    As this graph shows, the results were a success  across the board concentrations of particulate
  • 00:36:56
    matter fell in every city in seven years, a pretty  remarkable achievement. each bar here shows a city
  • 00:37:01
    and the 2013 numbers are in dark grey whereas the  2021s are in light grey. The Government actually
  • 00:37:07
    achieved its targets faster than anticipated and  in most cities they basically reached their own
  • 00:37:12
    standard: the orange line. Obviously, there is still  a way to go and all are well above WHO guidelines:
  • 00:37:18
    the red line. But China is winning its war on  air pollution. The authors estimate that this
  • 00:37:22
    translates into several years of life expectancy.  The average denizen of Beijing can expect to live
  • 00:37:27
    4.6 years longer because air pollution has more  than halved in the city. This is amazing and for
  • 00:37:34
    many, the measures will literally have saved their  lives. Mexico City used to be the worst city in
  • 00:37:39
    the world for air pollution. Sitting in a valley  which trapped pollutants, along with poor quality
  • 00:37:44
    cars using toxic fuel, and in the early stages of  industrialization, it also decided to declare war
  • 00:37:50
    on air pollution. Today, it still has a problem  but it's way outside the top polluted cities,
  • 00:37:55
    having severely limited use of those cars. It seems  that even when trapped by geographic factors, major
  • 00:38:01
    progress can be made. The air we breathe isn't just  bad...it's really bad. In terms of deaths it's like,
  • 00:38:09
    comparable to the pandemic that just ravaged  our world but also...is the pandemic, so solving
  • 00:38:14
    it would have helped both. It's also comparable  to the predicted effects of climate change but
  • 00:38:19
    also...is climate change, so solving it would help  both. In the 19th Century, people didn't know that
  • 00:38:27
    sewage contained disease. Today, we don't have an excuse.  We know that diseases are airborne and we know
  • 00:38:34
    that the effects of air pollution may be even  worse than those diseases. Don't forget, as well
  • 00:38:40
    that a good chunk of those 10 million deaths  in the Lancet Commission still come from dirty
  • 00:38:44
    water. The evidence of the negative effects  of air pollution, arborne diseases, and dirty
  • 00:38:50
    air more generally is overwhelming it comes  from across a variety of disciplines: biology,
  • 00:38:56
    medicine, epidemiology, economics, engineering. We  have high level associations; we have plausible
  • 00:39:04
    biological mechanisms; and we have very good  causal evidence bridging the gap between these
  • 00:39:10
    two. Negative externalities single out pollution  as worthy of government intervention in every
  • 00:39:17
    introductory economics textbook on the planet and  many economists who are seemingly on the right
  • 00:39:21
    are fighting this battle for that reason. Alex  Tabarrok is at George Mason University, at libertarian
  • 00:39:27
    haven. Michael Greenstone - who co-authored  that report on China's war on air pollution - is
  • 00:39:34
    the Milton Friedman Professor at the University  of Chicago. This shouldn't even be a partisan
  • 00:39:39
    issue, at least in the recognition of the problem.  Yet we are accepting a world filled with horrible...
  • 00:39:46
    sewage air. From airborne pathogens to airborne  toxins, we're breathing a cocktail that's filled
  • 00:39:52
    with so much crap that I can only hope that  future generations will look back in disgust.
  • 00:39:59
    So there you go: a nice video about  the importance of clean air, even
  • 00:40:03
    with a cute cartoon reference to hook you  in. Bet you didn't realize you'd learn about
  • 00:40:07
    difference in difference estimators when  I was talking about Futurama, did you? Har har har.
  • 00:40:12
    We've even kept it pretty short by modern  YouTube standards. That's all we need to say. *UE trying to hold exit pose*
  • 00:40:23
    For [ __ ] sake! [Music]
  • 00:40:29
    This is Konstantin Kisin. He's been popping up wherever I look
  • 00:40:32
    recently and he has a habit of saying things as  if they are profound when they aren't.
  • 00:40:37
    "The single line that has made the greatest impact to my  understanding of the world is is from Thomas Sowell,
  • 00:40:42
    who to me, is one of the greatest modern thinkers.  There are no solutions, only trade-offs. You're not
  • 00:40:48
    going to solve climate change; you're not going  to solve anything. You can make adjustments - and
  • 00:40:54
    you know this much better than I do from being in  government - every policy has a tradeoff. And very
  • 00:41:00
    often, not every- I think always, actually - the reason  that issues become difficult and controversial is
  • 00:41:07
    precisely because the tradeoffs are as bad as the  solution. Quite often, what we can do is tinker at
  • 00:41:12
    the edges and improve certain aspects of it...at the cost of others."
  • 00:41:17
    Okay...there's some truth in this. Every time we try to achieve a goal it costs us: time, labour, resources. True in our personal lives
  • 00:41:25
    as well as for society. We could always have done  something else with those resources. It's also
  • 00:41:30
    true that designing good policy is a challenge.  Policies can have unintended consequences and
  • 00:41:35
    generally speaking, at least some group or outcome  will be negatively affected, if only slightly, by
  • 00:41:41
    any given policy. The statement being made here is  much stronger, though. It's an admonition that we
  • 00:41:46
    can't solve major problems without incurring major  costs. The idea is one of trade-offs: if you want X,
  • 00:41:52
    you can't have Y. If you want health, you can't have  the environment; if you want economic growth,
  • 00:41:58
    you can't have equality. Distinct economic, social,  and political aims are necessarily opposed to a
  • 00:42:04
    significant extent. Kisin has repeatedly insisted  that he is not a conservative:
  • 00:42:10
    "You know, as you know I'm not conservative. I certainly have some conservative views; I have some not conservative views."
  • 00:42:14
    "*laughs* I'm definitely not conservative...uh I don't  know what being on the right means anymore."
  • 00:42:20
    "The way I conceptualize my political views is: first  of all, I hate teams. I like being part of a team
  • 00:42:28
    that I've chosen to be part of." Yeah, I remember my first politics. I'm sorry but the trade-off
  • 00:42:33
    mindset is a conservative talking point in the  literal sense. Saying that we can't solve social,
  • 00:42:39
    political, economic, and environmental problems?  That it will just cost us elsewhere? Is this not
  • 00:42:44
    a generalized argument against change? Look, Kisin is free to identify personally in any way that he
  • 00:42:50
    likes - although judging from his general output,  he probably identifies as an attack helicopter,
  • 00:42:55
    amirite? (2016 called and they want their podcast  title back). His main example is covid itself. He argues
  • 00:43:03
    that lockdowns may have cost more lives than  they saved. This could be for reasons of mental
  • 00:43:07
    health, lost economic output, or prioritizing covid  over other diseases. He says we "don't know":
  • 00:43:15
    "Yes, locking down the country may- may, we don't know -  may have caused more people to die, but locking
  • 00:43:21
    down the country also cause more people to die." I think we do know a bit more than he's letting on
  • 00:43:25
    but for reasons of scope, allow me to sidestep  that massive debate and focus once more on air
  • 00:43:30
    quality. One tradeoff for indoor air quality is  energy use: we've tried to seal off our indoor
  • 00:43:36
    environments tighter and tighter in the name  of keeping heat in, but this has lowered air
  • 00:43:41
    circulation and allowed airborne diseases to  spread more easily. A 2023 study showed that as
  • 00:43:47
    you increase the ventilation in buildings, you  can massively lower the transmission of covid,
  • 00:43:51
    but also that this will cost both financially and  in terms of energy used as the heat gets let out.
  • 00:43:57
    There is a tradeoff. So does this example prove  Kisin's point? Well...no, because he turns it into
  • 00:44:04
    a universal statement about reality as opposed to  a specific feature of specific problems. He turns
  • 00:44:10
    it from a challenge to be overcome into a small C  conservative copout. The study also shows how much
  • 00:44:17
    transmission of covid is reduced when you add a  heat recovery system to the ventilation. This is
  • 00:44:23
    just a standard, commercially available system that  recycles waste heat from old air by transferring
  • 00:44:28
    it to new, clean and shiny air coming in. The heat  recovery system doesn't cost that much and may
  • 00:44:33
    even save money over the long term. It is basically  a free lunge and the authors of the 2023 study
  • 00:44:39
    recommend a scenario with an enhanced ventilation  and heat recovery system for that reason. A letter
  • 00:44:45
    in Nature about indoor air quality put it in almost exactly these terms:
  • 00:44:58
    You might say that someone like Kisin isn't against technological solutions
  • 00:45:02
    but is referring to political ones. Trade-offs  might reign in the realm of policy because of
  • 00:45:06
    the scarce resources available to us at any one  time. Those pesky politicians promise things they
  • 00:45:12
    just can't deliver, damn it! Actually, policy is  where the argument really falls apart. It's not
  • 00:45:17
    that fighting airborne diseases at a society-wide  level will improve our health outcomes ~at the cost
  • 00:45:22
    of others~. It's that it will have a wide range of  positive effects, including on economic outcomes.
  • 00:45:28
    The idea that we cannot afford it...that we have to  give up some 'economy' to get 'health' or 'environment'
  • 00:45:34
    is straightforwardly false. For a start, the  broader costs of not having proper systems for
  • 00:45:38
    dealing with these airborne pathogens are large.  Even before the covid pandemic shook the economy,
  • 00:45:44
    it has been estimated that through missed work  hours, health care costs, and lower productivity,
  • 00:45:49
    influenza and other respiratory illnesses cost  the US economy over $50 billion a year. In the
  • 00:45:55
    open letter from the scientists, they claim that  for the construction of new buildings the cost
  • 00:46:00
    of bringing ventilation up to scratch is only 1%  of total construction costs. That is an achievable
  • 00:46:06
    solution to indoor air quality for older buildings.  It is, of course, going to be a bit more complicated
  • 00:46:11
    and less can be achieved at greater cost but over  time there's no reason we cannot solve the problem,
  • 00:46:17
    as we did with sewage. Now if you're wondering why  I'm getting very specific and angry about [ __ ]
  • 00:46:22
    ventilation systems, firstly you must be new here.  "You are technically correct, the best kind of correct!"
  • 00:46:29
    But secondly, it's because I really hate  these general statements like the one made by
  • 00:46:33
    Kisin. They are usually disproved by a simple,  even trivial example like a heat recovery system.
  • 00:46:39
    With some initial investment and a relatively  small uptick in energy usage you can reduce the
  • 00:46:44
    transmission of covid and even save money over  the long term. These are what you could, I suppose
  • 00:46:50
    call tradeons, and they're as common as tradeoffs.  You can only decide which is more pressing on a
  • 00:46:55
    case-by-case basis. And even then you can use  your imagination to overcome seeming trade-offs.
  • 00:47:01
    The overemphasis on trade-offs is something which  is often associated with Economics. Konstantin
  • 00:47:07
    Kisin - shock - got it from the conservative  Economist Thomas Sowell. Even the comedian Jimmy
  • 00:47:12
    Carr repeated it on the Diary of a CEO: "There's no solutions, only tradeoffs, you know. Thomas Sowell, isn't it?"
  • 00:47:19
    Podcasts must be stopped. In the viral Oxford  Union talk that propelled him to his current
  • 00:47:23
    status, Kisin mostly just ranted about wokeness:  "I will join you in worshiping at the feet of St
  • 00:47:29
    Greta of climate change." But he ascended beyond this by making a couple of empirical claims which are wrong.
  • 00:47:34
    "'cuz the future of the climate is going to be decided in Asia and in Latin America, by poor
  • 00:47:39
    people, who couldn't give a [ __ ] about saving  the planet." Actually, poor people across the world
  • 00:47:44
    do care about saving the planet, probably because  they stand to be more impacted by it. If you're in
  • 00:47:50
    Bangladesh, which may largely go underwater and  also has the worst air pollution in the world,
  • 00:47:55
    you gain from pro-environmental initiatives.  "You're probably wondering why your ice cream went
  • 00:48:00
    away. Well, Susie the culprit isn't foreigners...it's global warming!" Gwobal wubba.
  • 00:48:08
    Polls from Pew research show that people across the world are concerned with climate change and this is above average in
  • 00:48:13
    Africa and Latin America, two continents known for  having high levels of poverty. Even poorer people
  • 00:48:19
    within rich countries usually care more about  climate change, probably because they're also
  • 00:48:24
    more likely to be impacted by it. They can't just  sell their houses and move. When the actually good
  • 00:48:29
    podcast Decoding the Gurus pointed this out, Kisin replied with this remark:
  • 00:48:35
    "Well Konstantin says that poor people don't care about the environment which is absolutely 100% not in any way what
  • 00:48:42
    I said. What I said is poor people don't care about  climate change." Environment, not climate change. Talk
  • 00:48:49
    about being pedantic in all the wrong ways! I mean,  how could anyone possibly have thought you were
  • 00:48:53
    talking about the environment in your talk? Kisin actually used the words "saving the planet" by the way:
  • 00:48:59
    "...is going to be decided in Asia and in Latin America,  by poor people who couldn't give a [ __ ] about
  • 00:49:05
    saving the planet." Anyway, the statement was wrong for any of them, Konstantin! Environment! Saving
  • 00:49:10
    the planet! Climate change! Poor people care about  all of these things because they're more affected
  • 00:49:14
    by them! Here's a separate poll from Our World in  Data about support for policies to tackle climate
  • 00:49:18
    change. Which countries are at the top? Asian,  African, and Latin American ones! "Where do you think
  • 00:49:24
    climate change ranks on Xi Jinping's list of priorities?"  Erm, high? He's said so? China is a leader in many green
  • 00:49:33
    technologies and climate efforts, including their  war on air pollution? Do some basic fact checking!
  • 00:49:38
    Or at least respond to criticism by telling  us what data you were using to support your
  • 00:49:43
    point, not by getting pedantic about word choice!  "I'm definitely not conservative..uh I don't know
  • 00:49:49
    what being on the right means anymore...uh the way I  conceptualize my political views is...first of all I hate teams"
  • 00:49:57
    *laughs* "I like being part of a team that I've chosen to be part of."
  • 00:50:03
    Kisin's argument that solving poverty and growing the economy will negatively impact the environment is a veiled reference to
  • 00:50:09
    something called the Environmental Kuznets Curve.  This is an upside down U-shape, which depicts the
  • 00:50:14
    relationship between economic growth and the  environment. The thought is that the early days
  • 00:50:19
    of growth imply smoke-filled factories and toxic  mining, leading to environmental damage. This peaks
  • 00:50:25
    at middle income until countries can afford to  invest in more expensive green technologies, set
  • 00:50:30
    aside wildlife sanctuaries that are unproductive, and so on. "And for every day of my son's life a
  • 00:50:36
    giant plume of CO2 is going to get released into the atmosphere." "You are not going to get these people to stay poor."
  • 00:50:44
    Alex Tabarrok does not think that the EKC is too relevant. This is from a part of the video with good audio:
  • 00:50:50
    And I think what all of these studies about pollution and productivity
  • 00:50:53
    hello everybody I like using tabo's example  example but I don't want to confuse anybody.
  • 00:50:58
    So the version of the Environmental Kuznets Curve he  has here is slightly different to the one I've
  • 00:51:03
    been talking about, actually the axes are flipped  so pollution is on the x- axis and GDP is on the
  • 00:51:09
    y- axis. For me it was the reverse. Don't worry  too much about the exact graph, the point that
  • 00:51:16
    we're making is the same. "...are indicating is that actually we may be in the double dividend region."
  • 00:51:22
    "That it may be that actually on the margin, you  can have less pollution and more GDP, and more
  • 00:51:29
    GDP. So we are here is the argument. Less pollution,  more health, and more wealth."
  • 00:51:37
    In 2019, an OECD study found that the level of air pollution in Europe may be reducing economic growth. They highlight
  • 00:51:45
    a few channels through which pollution impacts  health, all of which are well established. First,
  • 00:51:50
    reducing the size of the working population  through deaths and immigration. Second, reducing
  • 00:51:55
    hours worked per worker through sickness. Third,  reducing productivity at work through physical
  • 00:52:01
    and cognitive decline. Fourth, damaging crops and  other resource stocks reducing productivity in
  • 00:52:06
    sectors like agriculture or fishing. These effects  are contemporaneous, meaning that they ignore the
  • 00:52:12
    likely substantial long-term effects such as  those on children. It is merely the effect of
  • 00:52:18
    air pollution on GDP growth as it's happening.  You might be thinking that this is a pretty
  • 00:52:23
    difficult thing to estimate: after all, growth  effects pollution and pollution affects growth.
  • 00:52:29
    Technology impacts both of them. There are all  kinds of statistical issues to iron out with big
  • 00:52:34
    questions like this. The OECD study uses what are  called thermal inversions to isolate the effects
  • 00:52:40
    of pollution. Thermal inversions happen when a  layer of cooler air becomes trapped in the lower
  • 00:52:45
    atmosphere. Usually air rises up the atmosphere and  this reduces air pollution at the surface. Air also
  • 00:52:52
    gets cooler the higher you go up. But by trapping  cool air at the bottom, a thermal conversion can
  • 00:52:57
    prevent this from happening, leaving the pollution  at a level where humans breathe it in. The study
  • 00:53:01
    controls for a wide range of other variables - most  notably weather - to make sure they are isolating
  • 00:53:07
    the impact of pollution on growth. Results show  that a decrease of particulate matter 2.5 by 1
  • 00:53:13
    microgram per meter cubed would increase European  GDP by 0.8% in a given year, or around 12 billion
  • 00:53:21
    Euros, or around €200 per person. You see: on the one  hand, this is based on nothing. On the other hand,
  • 00:53:29
    it is a curve - the shape of science! You might say  that the Environmental Kuznets Curve refers to
  • 00:53:34
    poor countries and that the Europeans are rich. But  there are plenty of low to middle-income countries
  • 00:53:39
    in Eastern Europe and the predicted benefits are  actually higher for those countries. Reminder that
  • 00:53:45
    one of Kisin's examples is actually Russia, also a  middle-income country:
  • 00:53:49
    "I come from Russia, which is not a poor country it's a middle-income country.  20% of households in Russia do not have have an indoor toilet."
  • 00:53:57
    The Environmental Kuznets Curve is not really considered a credible idea anymore.  As the Lancet Commission put it:
  • 00:54:12
    Of course, there's nuance here. China's plan to reduce
  • 00:54:15
    pollution, in typical totalitarian style, directly  limited Industries and went into people's homes to
  • 00:54:21
    change their cookers. It's fair to say that this  probably reduced economic growth and was also
  • 00:54:26
    politically intrusive. So you could consider  those tradeoffs. However, they are trade-offs
  • 00:54:31
    that result from specific choices made in one  place at one time, just like the trade-offs of
  • 00:54:35
    the covid lockdown resulted from specific choices  so they varied by country. You can't make universal
  • 00:54:41
    statements about tradeoffs; you have to consider  the specifics. To sum up, a bunch of distinct
  • 00:54:46
    statements are in danger of being lumped together here:
  • 00:55:09
    "No one's going to solve the NHS, no one's going to solve climate change, no one's
  • 00:55:12
    going to solve anything. What we can do is tinker  at the edges and improve certain aspects of it
  • 00:55:18
    at the cost of others." This conservative talking point has its roots in a certain way of thinking
  • 00:55:24
    which has become influential in policy, as the  Lancet Commission said of air pollution:
  • 00:55:29
    the great magnitude of this cost they are largely  invisible and often are not recognized as caused
  • 00:55:56
    Ohhhh! This is finally an unlearning economics video!
  • 00:56:04
    We need to start thinking about like buses and stuff I'm sick of all these bloody cars. Look at this! I mean that is just horrible.
  • 00:56:12
    In Thinking Like an Economist: How Efficiency replaced Equity in US Public Policy,
  • 00:56:17
    sociologist Elizabeth Popp-Berman highlights how a certain mindset began
  • 00:56:21
    to pervade US governance in the late 20th  Century. One of Popp-Berman's very first examples
  • 00:56:28
    is the Clean Air Act. This was implemented in  1970 and revised in 1990. It aimed to combat the
  • 00:56:34
    effects of air pollutants on public health and  welfare. It set limits on the level of pollution
  • 00:56:39
    companies were allowed to emit. It was a rigid  and inflexible rule so that it could not be
  • 00:56:44
    easily evaded. And it horrified economists because  it didn't consider the tradeoffs associated with this action
  • 00:56:51
    "...but they were saying look well I mean,  reducing pollution sure, you know pollution is bad
  • 00:56:55
    but reducing it has costs as well as benefits."  Tradeoffs seemed to obsess economists at the
  • 00:57:01
    time. When the Environmental Protection Agency  was considering reducing aircraft noise under
  • 00:57:06
    President Gerald Ford, economist Jim Miller argued  the reduction of this annoyance imposes costs:
  • 00:57:22
    ...he then took this even further...
  • 00:57:32
    In another cruel irony of history, an economist called John Snow
  • 00:57:36
    became head of the National Highway Traffic Safety  Administration and began watering down transport
  • 00:57:41
    regulations because he thought they didn't take  these costs into account. Other John Snows across
  • 00:57:46
    history looked on in disgust. Non-economists in  policy had, of course, considered the economy but
  • 00:57:52
    so-called economic feasibility was not just about  regulation being costly or even being destructive
  • 00:57:59
    to individual firms. It was only about regulation  threatening an entire industry. It was there but
  • 00:58:06
    it was a high bar. The Clean Air Act was extremely  stringent on standards for emissions: lines which
  • 00:58:11
    just couldn't be crossed. For the economists,  this meant pushing emissions down to a level
  • 00:58:15
    which incurred unreasonable costs for industry and  growth. They wanted to map out all of the tradeoffs
  • 00:58:21
    across the economy and only reduce emissions  until it began to threaten other outcomes.
  • 00:58:26
    In practice, this would have meant much lower  emission standards. (Is that lower or higher? Harsher
  • 00:58:31
    on industry! More pollution! That's what I mean! Good save...) In the earlier debates over the Clean Air Act,
  • 00:58:37
    the point was precisely that mother nature is  sacred. The idea of buying a right to pollute
  • 00:58:42
    was considered morally objectionable. The goal was  for humans to live in harmony with the environment
  • 00:58:47
    and appreciate that it was all interrelated. If  we interfered with nature too much, it might come
  • 00:58:52
    back to bite us. In the end economists fail to get  their objections noted and the Clean Air Act was
  • 00:58:57
    passed, albeit with a touch of watering down due to  Industry lobbying. The original act was successful
  • 00:59:02
    and is widely celebrated today: between 1970 and  1994 it lowered particulate 2.5 by about 40%.
  • 00:59:10
    But economists would soon make their own Clean Air Act,  with blackjack, and hookers. Economists got their
  • 00:59:16
    revenge when the act was amended in the 1990s. Now  there was plenty of reference to the "tradeoffs"
  • 00:59:22
    from regulation. Remember the idea of externalities  from the start of the video? Market prices fail to
  • 00:59:28
    include external cost to third parties like  pollution. The economists' solution is obvious:
  • 00:59:33
    include the costs in the price. Such policies are  known as 'internalizing the externality'. Businesses
  • 00:59:40
    and customers are charged the right amount for  emitting but unlike the original Clean Air Act
  • 00:59:45
    they are not banned from doing so. Therefore, if  the benefits to emitting more - for example, in
  • 00:59:50
    terms of productivity or growth - are higher than  the costs they have to pay, businesses will do so.
  • 00:59:56
    We get the optimal amount of emissions. Now, I  want to highlight quickly that Konstantin Kisin
  • 01:00:02
    acknowledges this point: "I think the market often  ignores significant externalities of the things, um
  • 01:00:08
    you know the wrong structure creates the wrong  perverse incentives for companies to then take
  • 01:00:12
    advantage of" ...so it's not that he's against  pro-environmental policy; it's just that most
  • 01:00:17
    of the things he says about environmental policy  are wrong. And even this policy may not be enough,
  • 01:00:22
    as we'll see. Externalities can be internalized  through a simple tax on emissions or maybe a
  • 01:00:28
    cap and trade scheme which issues tradable  permits to emit. It was the latter that was
  • 01:00:32
    put into practice in the 1990s. Before the updated  Clean Air Act, acid rain was a massive problem in
  • 01:00:39
    the USA. Many power plants were burning a type of  coal that was high in Sulphur and previous attempts
  • 01:00:45
    at direct regulation had not helped. Right in line  with economics textbooks, economists pushed for a
  • 01:00:50
    sulphur dioxide cap and trading scheme. It is widely  regarded as successful reducing sulphur dioxide
  • 01:00:57
    emissions by 94% and stopping acid rain entirely.  It has served as a model for other successful
  • 01:01:04
    schemes across the globe. This idea has obvious  appeal, but this style of thinking has been picked
  • 01:01:09
    up and misapplied by conservative commentators for  one simple reason: it tells you you can't have it
  • 01:01:15
    all. Now, let's get one thing out of the way: am I  saying that all economists are conservatives...
  • 01:01:22
    Yeah. Yeah.
  • 01:01:24
    There was an old blogger I used to follow called Squarely Rooted. One of the things he wrote back in the day has stuck with me:
  • 01:02:12
    Pundits who quote Thomas Sowell to push conservative agendas are doing big E economics. Economists who estimate the effects
  • 01:02:19
    of air pollution in the drive EZ are doing small  E economics. The economists pushing against almost
  • 01:02:25
    any regulation in the 50s and 60s were doing big  E economics. The economists who designed the sulfphur
  • 01:02:31
    dioxide trading scheme to augment the updated  Clean Air Act we're doing Small E economics.
  • 01:02:36
    The Environmental Kuznets Curve is Big E economics.  Now, big E economics does find its roots in small
  • 01:02:43
    E economics. Sure: it's a dated, watered down, even  caricatured version of the discipline, but you can
  • 01:02:49
    easily trace it back to key ideas you learn as a student. Alan Einthoven - an economist who worked in the US Defense Administration - stated in 1963:
  • 01:03:07
    Elizabeth Popp-Berman argues that this way of  thinking is an appeal to economic efficiency
  • 01:03:12
    as the main goal and a commitment to markets  as a route to achieve this efficiency. Let's be
  • 01:03:17
    clear: this is more subtle than the things said by  people like Sowell, let alone Kisin. It's also more
  • 01:03:23
    correct. But historically the implication has been  that pursuing environmental and social goals often
  • 01:03:29
    mean sacrificing economic efficiency. Market-based  schemes are favoured because they purportedly balance
  • 01:03:36
    these competing tradeoffs by allowing households  and businesses to decide which level of emissions
  • 01:03:41
    suits them by paying for it. You can reasonably  make the argument that regulation in the past
  • 01:03:46
    was unwise to ignore some of the tradeoffs,  as well as the options economists put on the
  • 01:03:50
    table to account for them, but equally there are  crucial things that the economic approach misses.
  • 01:03:55
    The original Clean Air Act was so strict because  it was designed to avoid the watering down of
  • 01:04:00
    what were meant to be transformative changes.  Flexible rules are more prone to regulatory
  • 01:04:05
    capture than red lines and you'd be more likely to  see companies wiggle out of them, stymying the shift
  • 01:04:10
    to a low carbon economy. To my mind, both small  and big E economics underestimate the potential
  • 01:04:17
    for transformative change. Transformative  change can accomplish multiple goals at
  • 01:04:22
    once. London was becoming unlivable before its  modern sewage system; the Great Stink was so
  • 01:04:28
    bad that Parliament actually couldn't sit. Deadly  epidemics aren't exactly good for other outcomes,
  • 01:04:32
    either. Was it the case that solving the sewage  problem negatively impacted other outcomes? No,
  • 01:04:40
    solving it was necessary for London to move  forward at all. And despite everything, I like London!
  • 01:04:51
    Today, a huge sewage pipeline has been  completed to further the project: the Thames Tideway.
  • 01:04:56
    This aims to drain almost all of the remaining  sewage from the Thames. Unlike so many similar
  • 01:05:01
    projects, this has proceeded largely as planned, on  time, and within budget. In so many places we are
  • 01:05:07
    trapped in a high air pollution model, just as they  were trapped in a high water pollution model in
  • 01:05:12
    19th Century London. And there's no better example  than cars in America. Many zoning laws actually
  • 01:05:19
    require you to create parking spaces alongside  commercial or residential buildings. Games like
  • 01:05:25
    Cities: Skylines emulate this lack of imagination  because literally everything in the game requires
  • 01:05:30
    a road. You can't even build a park without  an attached road, which is a weird echo of the
  • 01:05:35
    zoning practices in the US that require car parks  when you build a building. This is why the game
  • 01:05:40
    is notorious for becoming a traffic management  simulator. There are cars everywhere! People won't
  • 01:05:45
    respond to these incentives in the same way when  they're locked in. You can't magically cycle into
  • 01:05:51
    work when the price of petrol increases, if you  live HERE. "Was this game developed by the YouTuber
  • 01:05:57
    not just bikes to illustrate how bad cars are?" Ban cars! The idea behind putting a price on carbon is
  • 01:06:04
    that by making emissions more expensive, this  will incentivise businesses to invest in lower
  • 01:06:09
    emissions technologies and incentivise consumers  to buy them. Properly designed, it aligns the
  • 01:06:14
    trade-offs of emitting to go where they should be.  And it worked for sulfur dioxide emissions, right?
  • 01:06:19
    There is an idea known as carbon lock-in which  refers to the fact that most economies and societies
  • 01:06:25
    today are dependent on emitting greenhouse gases.  As Rosenbloom et al put it:
  • 01:07:14
    You may respond that if a carbon tax doesn't
  • 01:07:15
    change behaviour, the price just isn't high enough,  so increase the tax. But if you squeeze people
  • 01:07:21
    tight enough without providing an alternative,  they'll just rebel. This is what happened with
  • 01:07:26
    the Gillette-Jaunes protests in France when the tax  on petrol was increased. Truckers, farmers, and other
  • 01:07:32
    workers still had to buy petrol to get to work  so the policy simply made them poorer. You can see
  • 01:07:37
    this failure further through how many countries  have been resistant to carbon pricing. Today, they
  • 01:07:42
    only cover 20% of the globe and most of the ones  that exist are at pretty low levels. The economists'
  • 01:07:48
    reason for this is that it's political or because  of vested interests. Narrowly this may be true, but
  • 01:07:54
    we have to ask why the resistance is there. As  of 2019, Swedish carbon taxes were around $132
  • 01:08:02
    per ton of CO2, the highest in the world. They  were applied to the transport sector but were
  • 01:08:07
    much lower for industry, agriculture, and entirely  exempted electricity generation owing to fears
  • 01:08:13
    of export competitiveness. A well-known paper by  Julius Andersson compared Swedish transport to the
  • 01:08:19
    rest of Europe and found that emissions from  transport declined by 11% or 40 million tons.
  • 01:08:25
    Fantastic! But is it enough? This graph shows total CO2 emissions from road transportation
  • 01:08:32
    in Sweden between 1990 and 2015. As you can see, the  amount is roughly constant with a gradual rise at
  • 01:08:39
    the start followed by a relatively rapid decline  more recently. Now let me ask you a question: when
  • 01:08:45
    do you think the carbon tax was introduced? Was it  here, or maybe here? Actually, it was in 1991 at the
  • 01:08:53
    start of the sample. Even though credible causal  analysis shows that the carbon tax had a sizable
  • 01:08:59
    effect, it wasn't visible in the raw emissions data,  which is what matters for achieving environmental
  • 01:09:05
    targets. Total emissions from road transportation  are roughly stagnant over the period, though they
  • 01:09:10
    may have risen in absence of the tax. I'm not  saying the carbon tax had no effect; I'm saying
  • 01:09:16
    that it's not enough. If you define the problem  as reducing emissions substantially, the carbon
  • 01:09:21
    tax has not achieved that. The economist Roger  Backhouse has reflected that the sulphur trading
  • 01:09:26
    scheme probably worked because it was quite a  contained problem. It was one pollutant in one
  • 01:09:31
    country with a small number of firms who could  be monitored and regulated easily. The businesses
  • 01:09:36
    that could afford low sulphur coal or scrubbers  that reduced emissions did so and could then sell
  • 01:09:41
    their permits to the ones for whom it was more  costly. The alternatives existed; businesses just
  • 01:09:46
    needed a nudge. The emissions target was also  below a threshold rather than being zero. In
  • 01:09:52
    contrast, climate change is a global problem that  touches on almost every industry from construction to
  • 01:09:58
    transport to energy. There is evidence that  businesses don't fundamentally change their
  • 01:10:02
    approaches much in the face of carbon taxes; they  just tend to improve their existing strategies
  • 01:10:08
    rather than transforming them, which is exactly  what the factories emitting sulphur dioxide did.
  • 01:10:13
    It just worked in that case! New diesel and  petrol vehicle registrations in Sweden have
  • 01:10:18
    still grown over the carbon tax period. This is a  situation where emissions need to be effectively
  • 01:10:23
    zero: complete decarbonization. Those who think  carbon taxes are the solution may want to
  • 01:10:30
    consider that when democratic politics prevents  you from doing something then sometimes - just
  • 01:10:36
    sometimes - it's because people are seeing things  that your theories are not. And when one lever
  • 01:10:41
    isn't working quite as well as you'd hoped, it's  time to pull another. Again, I'm not against carbon
  • 01:10:46
    taxes whatsoever. If a global carbon tax were passed tomorrow, I'd be ecstatic...
  • 01:10:52
    But this is unlikely: without much bigger changes evidence suggests that taxes will not reduce pollution enough to
  • 01:10:59
    clean the air and prevent further climate change.  Our carbon dependency needs more than a nudge; it
  • 01:11:04
    needs a shove. Transformative change requires  sustained political action and imagination.
  • 01:11:10
    "Hey wait! I'm having one of those things...you know,  a headache with pictures!" "An idea?" "Mhm"
  • 01:11:17
    I've been quite impressed by the Biden administration's  ability to heed these challenges. They have
  • 01:11:22
    massively increased subsidies in renewable energy;  invested in improving indoor air quality; invested
  • 01:11:27
    in public transport. This all seems to be producing  an economic boom alongside falling emissions and
  • 01:11:32
    has improved the quality of life for many people.  And I don't want to 'bat for team Biden' too much
  • 01:11:38
    I'm just saying that these seem like solutions  which feature trade-ons. And I also know that's
  • 01:11:43
    a crap term so try and think of a better one in  the comments! Virtuous cycle? The Norwegian capital
  • 01:11:48
    of Oslo has been even more radical, removing  parking spaces for cars entirely. Transport
  • 01:11:53
    via tram or bike has become easier and not  only has this massively reduced pollution, but
  • 01:11:58
    despite their initial skepticism, businesses are  making more money due to increased pedestrian
  • 01:12:03
    activity in the city. "Shut up and take my money!"  Seriously, ban cars!
  • 01:12:08
    This seems to be closer to the approach in Cities: Skylines II too but apparently that game is rubbish.
  • 01:12:12
    There are major steps we can take that will improve the quality of our air. This will reduce the transmission of airborne
  • 01:12:18
    pathogens, of pollution related diseases, will  increase visibility and reduce discomfort. These
  • 01:12:23
    benefits will in turn reduce health care expenses,  increase productivity, and reduce sick days. Quality
  • 01:12:29
    of life, especially in cities and especially  in poorer countries, will increase dramatically.
  • 01:12:33
    There will likely even be positive effects on  the economy. This is a workable path to clean air.
  • 01:12:44
    Environmentalism is an important theme of Futurama. The 31st Century has clearly
  • 01:12:49
    managed to survive the array of environmental  challenges presented by the 21st Century, but
  • 01:12:53
    it hasn't exactly solved them. In fact, they just  seem to scale to Galactic proportions. There are
  • 01:13:00
    dark matter oil spills on Pluto; the building of  a giant mini golf course will destroy 12% of the
  • 01:13:07
    Milky Way Galaxy: "What? you're going to wipe out 10% of the Galaxy for a stupid Golf Course!?"
  • 01:13:13
    "First of all, it 12%" In one episode, Earth gorges on an entire planet full of fast food snacks, only to
  • 01:13:19
    realise they are baby aliens capable of sentience.  "Ooh there's one left!" "Mama"
  • 01:13:26
    In the future, they have  managed to abate global warming by dropping giant ice cubes into the sea, taken from Halley's Comet.
  • 01:13:33
    "Of course, since the greenhouse gases are still  building up, it takes more and more ice each time...
  • 01:13:41
    ...thus solving the problem once and for all." "But-" "Once and for all!"
  • 01:13:46
    When the ice runs out, they blame the robots and try to kill them all but eventually solve the problem by letting out the robots'
  • 01:13:51
    exhaust fumes to propel the Earth slightly further  away from the Sun. In another famous episode, the
  • 01:13:57
    planet is threatened by a giant ball of garbage  that humanity launched into space in the 21st
  • 01:14:02
    Century. They no longer produce garbage in the 31st  Century because everything is recycled:
  • 01:14:07
    "We recycle everything! Robots are made from old beer cans." "Yeah, and this beer can is made out of old robots!"
  • 01:14:14
    But the old problem still comes back to haunt  them because the garbage ball is returning. Fry
  • 01:14:19
    teaches them the 21st Century way of producing  garbage so they can create an even bigger ball
  • 01:14:24
    to knock the old into the sun. Worrying about  that garbage ball returning is a challenge for
  • 01:14:29
    the 41st Century. The message is clear: society is  pretty terrible at actually solving its problems
  • 01:14:34
    and prefers to use Band-Aid solutions that may  cause other problems, likely further into the
  • 01:14:39
    future. Groening himself clearly articulated  my philosophy on this:
  • 01:14:55
    Oh sorry, not that quote. I meant this one:
  • 01:15:04
    Fiction, especially science fiction, is important. Futurama shows the lack
  • 01:15:09
    of imagination we have and how we seem to accept  certain features of our world even when we think
  • 01:15:13
    about the future. There are plentiful solutions  to environmental problems and many of them will
  • 01:15:18
    enhance our material standard of living, our health,  our intelligence, and our general quality of life.
  • 01:15:23
    But others will fail to change the world and  may just kick the can down the road.
  • 01:15:27
    Failing to imagine something fundamentally different is  a trap that far too many fall into: whether
  • 01:15:32
    fiction writers, conservatives, or economists. But  I repeat myself. A lack of imagination means that
  • 01:15:39
    we don't see the things that we take for granted.  It's almost like the ideas themselves become the *air we breathe*.
  • 01:15:50
    Huhhh!! That's the name of the video [Music]
  • 01:15:58
    Thank you for watching Everybody. thanks so much to
  • 01:16:00
    my patrons for supporting me, thank you very much  to my editor Ben, and thank you to everybody Who
  • 01:16:08
    provided quotes. this video touches on a lot of  controversial topics that I haven't spoken about
  • 01:16:14
    too much in the past: covid and climate change  most notably, and I guess there'll be a lot of
  • 01:16:19
    questions asked to me about like where I stand  on all of the issues raised by this video, and I
  • 01:16:25
    think it's really important for me to make it very  clear just in case I don't get misrepresented, that
  • 01:16:32
    actually I don't like Futrama anywhere near  as much as I like The Simpsons. I- I just have to
  • 01:16:38
    be honest with you, um I don't think it's as funny,  uh I think it it started around the time that the
  • 01:16:44
    Simpsons started to get worse, and I think it's  about the quality of like late but not terrible
  • 01:16:49
    Simpsons, uh and you know I'm just being honest  now of course there are lots of positives about it:
  • 01:16:55
    themes I discussed in this video, the memorable  lines and memes that have come for it - come
  • 01:17:02
    from it. And there are many of those, um and also  the animation is amazing I think uh a lot of the
  • 01:17:08
    serious episodes of Futurama I actually find I like  more...but yeah I don't think it really holds a
  • 01:17:14
    candle to Groening's earlier creation and uh for that  reason and that reason alone we will be going back
  • 01:17:19
    to Simpsons clips in the future, but you know maybe  every so often I'll...I'll get a Futurama
  • 01:17:26
    clip in from now on. And who knows? Maybe even a  Disenchanted clip but you know, probably not. Bye!
Tags
  • Futurama
  • Society
  • Pollution
  • Injustice
  • History
  • Public Health
  • Trade-offs
  • Economics
  • Environment
  • Imagination