The Air We Breathe
Summary
TLDRThe video analyzes the tendency of societies to overlook or accept injustices and destructive practices, using historical and contemporary examples. Through a humorous lens with references to shows like Futurama and The Simpsons, it critiques our current handling of air pollution and airborne diseases, drawing parallels to past public health failures like the cholera outbreaks. It questions why society often lacks the imagination to foresee and address future challenges, echoing themes of complacency despite technological advancement. Additionally, it critiques the economic concepts of trade-offs, suggesting a need for ambitious, transformative actions to combat issues like pollution.
Takeaways
- 🧐 Societies often accept injustices that future generations may find shocking.
- 🚀 Futurama highlights societal consistency despite technological advancements.
- 💧 Air pollution today is paralleled with historic cholera outbreaks.
- 👨🔬 John Snow's cholera investigation is a model for tackling modern pollution.
- ⚖️ Trade-offs in policy can inhibit meaningful solutions.
- 🏛️ Proper governance could more effectively address air pollution challenges.
- 🏭 Current air quality issues could be viewed as negligence by future societies.
- 🔄 Transformative change is necessary beyond just economic trade-offs.
- 📊 Economics often undersells the possibility of multi-goal achievements.
- 🎥 Satirical media like Futurama reflects on societal shortcomings.
Timeline
- 00:00:00 - 00:05:00
The speaker reflects on historical atrocities accepted by past generations, such as public executions and slavery, and questions the present-day blind spots. They use "Futurama," where Fry, a delivery boy, ends up in the future but still in a dead-end job, critiquing societal progress and satirizing optimistic sci-fi projections.
- 00:05:00 - 00:10:00
Fry's journey in "Futurama" continues by highlighting the unchanged nature of society despite technological advances. Robots in the story serve wealthy capitalists, and social issues like class disparity persist. The narrative satirizes science fiction's failure to predict significant societal changes, such as women's rights, focusing instead on superficial technological advancements.
- 00:10:00 - 00:15:00
The video discusses economic theories related to pollution, explaining negative externalities and how markets fail to account for pollution impacts. Despite the clear harm caused by air and water pollution, such as millions of annual deaths, society's collective inaction is critiqued. The creator shifts focus to building a community-funded platform free from sponsors.
- 00:15:00 - 00:20:00
While traditionally focusing on economics, the creator aims to highlight pollution's devastating impacts with robust evidence from various fields. They recount John Snow's groundbreaking work tracing cholera to contaminated water, illustrating the importance of examining environmental issues through an investigative and scientific lens to prevent similar modern hazards.
- 00:20:00 - 00:25:00
The discussion transitions to airborne diseases, addressing misconceptions about their transmission, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic. It scrutinizes outdated WHO guidelines and emphasizes updated understandings of airborne transmission, advocating for better ventilation to mitigate future health risks and highlighting past failures in addressing such issues.
- 00:25:00 - 00:30:00
The urgency of re-evaluating building designs to address airborne pathogens is underscored. The content critiques current responses to indoor air quality, suggesting investments in better ventilation could significantly reduce disease transmission. This shift in focus aims to enhance living and public health standards, adapting strategies from waterborne to airborne pollutants.
- 00:30:00 - 00:35:00
The significant health consequences of air pollution are emphasized through the case of Ella Kissi Debrah, highlighting the global struggle with meeting air quality standards. While low-income countries face the harshest impacts, the video argues that current pollution levels are unacceptable everywhere, using examples from India, China, and historical Western responses.
- 00:35:00 - 00:40:00
Reflecting on economic impacts, the video links pollution mitigation to improving not just environment but economic prosperity, citing studies like New Jersey's EZ Pass project, which reduced birth complications through decreased local pollution. China's aggressive air quality policies in recent years have notably improved life expectancy and quality, stressing policy efficacy.
- 00:40:00 - 00:45:00
The speaker critiques common viewpoints that suggest environmental economics inevitably involves detrimental trade-offs. Contrary to narratives like Konstantin Kisin's, they argue many ecological initiatives, such as addressing pollution, result in broad benefits and potential economic gains, challenging the notion of inherent compromise between economic and environmental goals.
- 00:45:00 - 00:50:00
Addressing outdated economic models like the Environmental Kuznets Curve, the video argues for more nuanced and effective policy paradigms. It warns against the complacency of assuming problems like pollution resolve themselves with economic growth, using examples to emphasize the necessity of proactive, imaginative political action for tangible environmental improvements.
- 00:50:00 - 00:55:00
By exploring the impact of efficient policies, like the successful sulfur trading scheme, the video suggests integrating environmental objectives into economic dialogue isn't a zero-sum game. Instead, through detailed case studies, it highlights potential synergies between economic policy and environmental conservation, suggesting varied strategies for comprehensive solutions.
- 00:55:00 - 01:00:00
The video continues to discuss how political motivations, rather than pure economics, often drive environmental policy decisions. It asserts that the historical focus on market-based solutions sometimes neglects the multifaceted benefits of regulation and proactive policy measures, making a case for diversified approaches to environmental challenges.
- 01:00:00 - 01:05:00
Contrary to arguments about economic efficiency, the video posits that transformative changes, like expanded public transport and improved ventilation, offer more substantial gains across multiple sectors than economically conservative approaches. It presents examples where prioritizing environmental health also boosts economic outcomes, challenging traditional economic trade-offs.
- 01:05:00 - 01:10:00
Specifically targeting American urban planning and the dominance of car-dependent infrastructure, the video criticizes systemic inertia preventing effective environmental solutions. Citing Oslo's radical car-reduction strategies and their payoff, it advocates for creative urban planning that prioritizes public health and environmental sustainability.
- 01:10:00 - 01:17:33
Summarizing the themes of environmental challenges and imaginative insufficiencies, the video stresses the necessity for bold action and visionary thinking beyond typical economic and policy frameworks. Through the allegory of "Futurama," it urges proactive environmental stewardship, stressing the urgency of reinventing societal priorities to secure a better future.
Mind Map
Video Q&A
What is the main theme of the video?
The video discusses societal complacency towards injustices and the need for a better future imagination, using Futurama as an example.
How does Futurama relate to the video's message?
Futurama is used to comment on the unchanged aspects of society despite technological advancements.
What historical public health crisis is compared to modern pollution issues?
The cholera outbreaks of the 19th century are compared to modern air pollution challenges.
What role does Futurama play in the video?
Futurama is used as a satire that highlights society's shortcomings and lack of progress despite technological advancements.
What did John Snow do that is relevant to the video?
John Snow pioneered the investigation of cholera's waterborne nature, an approach referenced in the discussion of how we handle air pollution today.
What are the modern challenges discussed in the video?
The video discusses challenges of air pollution, airborne diseases, and societal complacency towards these issues.
What is a 'trade-off' as discussed in the video?
Trade-offs refer to the costs associated with achieving certain goals, often leading to the compromise of other important outcomes.
What does the video suggest about future perspectives on present issues?
It suggests that future generations may look back at our inaction on pollution as unfathomable neglect, similar to our view of historical injustices.
Does the video offer solutions to the discussed issues?
Yes, it discusses the importance of proper government intervention and improved building designs to tackle air pollution.
What is the video's stance on the role of economics in addressing pollution?
The video criticizes the economic focus on trade-offs and suggests a need for transformative change rather than mere market solutions.
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- 00:00:00We often recoil in horror at the things that past generations accepted. Why did people not just allow
- 00:00:05but actively watch their fellow humans getting hung, drawn and, quartered? Why did people accept
- 00:00:11slavery and segregation? Why do people still tolerate unelected leaders living in luxury
- 00:00:17while the rest of the population starves? Why did people ever watch The Big Bang Theory?
- 00:00:22"Bazinga! Bazinga!"
- 00:00:26It's easy to look back and realize that all of these things were crimes against humanity.
- 00:00:31What's more difficult is identifying what we accept today that will tomorrow
- 00:00:34be thought of in the same way. We need to get better at Imagining the future.
- 00:00:39In Futurama, protagonist Fry is transported into the future by accidentally
- 00:00:46being cryogenically frozen for 1,000 years. In the year 2000, he was in a deadend job as a delivery
- 00:00:52boy and an unhappy relationship. "I hate my life I hate my life I hate my life"
- 00:00:57Entering the year 3000, he is excited about a world where you can easily go to space, along with tubes that easily transport you
- 00:01:04everywhere while on Earth. "My parents...my coworkers...my girlfriend...I'll never see any of them again..."
- 00:01:13"Yahoo!" By the end of the first episode, Fry has a new job. He works for a distant descendant of his,
- 00:01:19getting the chance to go into space to transport things to far off and wonderous planets. In one way,
- 00:01:26his dream has come true. He'll see the universe, which was unimaginable in his year 2000 life.
- 00:01:32But when you think about the job you realize that... he is still a delivery boy. "Your permanent career assignment."
- 00:01:40"Delivery boy!? No, not again!" It seems that despite the glossy coating, the future is not
- 00:01:46all that different to now and the show is filled with this kind of commentary. There are robots with
- 00:01:51genuine artificial intelligence but they don't seem to have made the world more magical. They are
- 00:01:56all owned and controlled by ruthless capitalist 'mom' and it is repeatedly implied that they are a
- 00:02:02kind of underclass. "For thousands of years robots have slaved for humanity." The first time fry meets
- 00:02:09the robot Bender, another main character who will go on to become his best friend, Bender is about
- 00:02:14to use a futuristic booth to 'off himself'. "Please select mode of death: quick and painless or slow and horrible."
- 00:02:23Creator of the show Matt Groening was satirizing science fiction writers and media that
- 00:02:27imagined an advanced technological future which nevertheless was pretty similar to our own.
- 00:02:32in the Jetsons, the male bread winner model of 1950s America is alive and well alongside flying cars.
- 00:02:39This was, of course, also true of the Flintstones, which is set in the past.
- 00:02:49The male writers could imagine flying cars but not the entry of women into the workforce and one of
- 00:02:54those things happened very soon after the cartoon was created, while the other is yet to materialize.
- 00:03:00In a 1999 interview, Groening tried to distinguish his approach from traditional sci-fi:
- 00:03:26Whether through a lack of imagination or just a desire to make audiences
- 00:03:29feel comfortable, sci-fi often transplants familiar situations to the future. There are
- 00:03:34plenty of examples in Futurama which play with this idea. Many famous 20th Century people are in
- 00:03:40the show, just preserved as heads in jars. Earth is now unified but seemingly run from America
- 00:03:46with a flag that resembles America's. Everyone is still watching too much TV and the most popular
- 00:03:52show is a toad who literally hypnotizes you into watching. The world is still hugely consumerist,
- 00:03:58with incredible technology gears towards fast food.
- 00:04:01"Now this is what I call a thousand years of progress: a Bavarian cream dog that's also self microwaving".
- 00:04:07The paradoxical world created in Futurama was even hinted at in Groening's earlier creation, The Simpsons.
- 00:04:12"So you want a realistic, down to earth show that's completely off the wall and swarming with magic robots?"
- 00:04:22In one of the most famous episodes, Richard Nixon's head is reelected as president of Earth, attached
- 00:04:25to a giant killer robot. My favourite part of the show comes when Fry is transported into the year
- 00:04:314,000. This is to be with his old girlfriend Michelle who has, via freezing, made her way
- 00:04:37into the year 3000, once again repeating the inescapability of Fry's 20th century life.
- 00:04:43But Michelle...doesn't like the future at all.
- 00:04:47"Michelle, this is Leela" "Ahhh!"
- 00:04:49She proposes that the two of them freeze themselves for another thousand years to get a fresh start in the future.
- 00:04:56Upon arriving in what seems to be a post-apocalyptic was land and getting kidnapped by a gang of children. Michelle
- 00:05:04once again loses interest in Fry. "You were a loser in the year 2000 and you're a loser in the year 4000!"
- 00:05:11"Yeah, but in the year 3000 I had it all: several friends, a low paying job."
- 00:05:17Then Fry's friends from the year 3000 inexplicably show up in the year 4000. It turns out that Fry and
- 00:05:23Michelle's cryogenic chamber was removed and transported across the USA a few days after
- 00:05:28they were frozen so they're not in the future, but in Los Angeles. Fry doesn't believe them which
- 00:05:33leads in my opinion, to one of the most memorable and illustrative exchanges in the entire show.
- 00:05:39"So you're saying these aren't the decaying ruins of New York in the year 4000?" "You wish! You're in Los Angeles."
- 00:05:46"But there was this gang of 10-year-olds with guns." "Exactly you're in LA."
- 00:05:50"But everyone is driving around in cars shooting at each other!" "That's LA for you..."
- 00:05:54"But the air is green and there's no sign of civilization whatsoever" "He just won't stop with the social commentary..."
- 00:06:00UE: DAMN RIGHT
- 00:06:25In modern economics, the notion that pollution should be prevented is present
- 00:06:29in every every textbook or introductory class. Negative externalities are defined as situations
- 00:06:34where a market transaction has a negative impact on parties other than those in the transaction. As
- 00:06:40my own undergraduate textbook put it:
- 00:06:59Pollution is the canonical example of a negative externality. It's no exaggeration to
- 00:07:05say that most economics textbooks will use it as their first example. Because the costs of pollution
- 00:07:09are not paid by those doing it, the offenders will produce more than they should. In other words, when
- 00:07:15it comes to pollution the market price is too low. People need to face the costs of the harm their
- 00:07:21actions cause to others. The solution is generally government intervention to 'correct' the externality
- 00:07:27by making the cost to the producer and consumer align with the cost to society. With pollution, the
- 00:07:33most obvious way to do this is by making them pay money - for example, with a tax on emitting
- 00:07:37carbon, or a scheme where businesses buy and sell permits to emit up to a preset limit. Because air
- 00:07:43and water do not really respect human boundaries - borders, property rights - you can't prevent the harm
- 00:07:49from spreading. Air and water flow freely around the world, so if they are contaminated in one
- 00:07:54time and place, this contamination can easily make its way to other times and places. Air pollution
- 00:07:59from China reaches Los Angeles; giant patches of garbage coalesce in the middle of the Pacific Ocean.
- 00:08:05These forms of pollution are causing clear harm to humanity. The 2017 Lancet Commission estimated
- 00:08:11that air pollution is killing 7 million people per year. Water pollution is killing around 2 million
- 00:08:16people and other forms like workplace toxins or soil pollution together total over 1 million. All
- 00:08:22in all, the Lancet Commission estimates that 10 million people a year are killed by pollution.
- 00:08:27That's roughly comparable to the amount covid has killed so far in the world...so why are we doing so little about it? little about it?
- 00:08:34But first, a word from this video's sponsor...nobody! For a while, I've been juggling this
- 00:08:39channel with other things and I've been unable to commit to it 100%. But now I want to do just
- 00:08:44that and I want to ramp things up. I want to create more of a community on Patreon, with more exclusive
- 00:08:50benefits for people who sign up. I want a channel that only relies on Patreon income - as well as
- 00:08:55passive YouTube income - without in video sponsors. I feel that's more in the spirit of what we're
- 00:09:00doing here. So my Patreon will now feature: monthly videos alongside the content on the main channel;
- 00:09:06all my previous scripts, edited for readability; a reading club for £5 a month patrons and up,
- 00:09:12we'll likely start with the Heretics Guide to Global Finance, likely within a month of this
- 00:09:16video going out; the £50 tier is basically a joke at the moment but if enough people sign up to it
- 00:09:22I might consider something big like a university level course in pluralist economics. All of this
- 00:09:26will be accompanied by more frequent videos on the main channel. As a patron, you will get
- 00:09:31a chance to review the draft scripts and draft videos and give me feedback and thank you to
- 00:09:35my patrons - among others - for feedback on this script. I've also created a new £1 a month
- 00:09:40tier called Junior Unlearner for people who are struggling. It all helps and you'll still get most
- 00:09:44of the benefits. The more I get, the better the channel and community will be. I'm taking a bit
- 00:09:49of a leap here without a sponsor so I hope it pays off...and also I'm worried this video might
- 00:09:54get demonetized because of the sheer volume of Futurama clips "But this is HD TV... it's better resolution than the real world."
- 00:10:01Anyway, let's carry on. Regular viewers might find this video a
- 00:10:04little bit different: in a way, pollution, disease, and air quality are out of my wheelhouse as an
- 00:10:10economist. However, a lot of the techniques used to study them are used heavily in applied economics,
- 00:10:15which is my field. All of the evidence gathered is strong - close to my ideal standard for evidence in
- 00:10:20social science. There are also some important economic ideas that relate to the environment
- 00:10:25beyond just externalities, and we'll get to those. Plus, I personally they just think it's a massive
- 00:10:30issue and everyone should be sounding the alarm. [Music]
- 00:10:38In the mid 19th Century, there was a doctor called Jon Snow. "You know nothing, Jon Snow."
- 00:10:44Oh, was that too obvious a reference for you? You [ __ ] snob.
- 00:10:47At the time, cholera was rife in London, having arrived from Europe during the 1800s. It was sudden,
- 00:10:52grizzly, and often fatal. There were numerous cholera epidemics throughout the 19th Century and in the
- 00:10:571850s, Snow became one of many people who sought to understand and eradicate the disease. There was a
- 00:11:03particularly bad cholera outbreak in 1854 and Snow took what's been called a 'shoe leather' approach
- 00:11:09to understanding its causes. He investigated the world, interviewing real people to find out the
- 00:11:13incidents of cholera, expending 'shoe leather' in the process. In other words, he went outside = something
- 00:11:20many economists yearn to do one day. At the time, people really didn't know what caused
- 00:11:24these diseases. The theory of germs hadn't been invented yet. People still thought that disease
- 00:11:29traveled through the miasma of small particles in the air, most readily detectable by smell. Not
- 00:11:35completely ridiculous given the relationship between dangerous organisms and smell...but
- 00:11:40ultimately wrong and unsuitable for prevention and cure. Miasma was a mystical and ethereal idea that
- 00:11:46couldn't be isolated in the way germs later came to be. Even though medicine was in this primitive
- 00:11:51stage, Snow gradually pieced together the truth that cholera was a waterborne infectious disease.
- 00:11:56He thought that it was caused by a living organism that managed managed to get into
- 00:11:59the body and multiply, poisoning its victim it would then escape through water expelled by the
- 00:12:05victims through processes we won't discuss, then get back into the water supply, infecting further
- 00:12:10victims. Snow's approach was that of a detective: he first looked at a few telling case studies.
- 00:12:15When sailors from a place where cholera was not widespread landed at a cholera-stricken port, they
- 00:12:20quickly caught the disease. John Harnold, the first recorded case in England, had arrived from Hamburg,
- 00:12:25which was rife with cholera. The next case was a man who later stayed in the same room as Harnold. All
- 00:12:31of this seemed to point towards interpersonal contagion. Snow plotted a map of cases. (This
- 00:12:36isn't the original map; it has been updated with colors to make it more legible to a crowd with a
- 00:12:40shorter attention span than they had in the 19th Century). The red circles are larger the more cases
- 00:12:45there are, while the blue taps represent water pumps. It is plain to see that the red circles
- 00:12:50cluster around a tap in the middle of the map on Broad Street. As Snow said:
- 00:13:21The big finding was yet to come. Snow's research and
- 00:13:23acumen led him to a method of investigation which would be considered credible in economics today, at
- 00:13:28least in broad strokes. He noticed that there were two sets of flats next door to one another and
- 00:13:33one was beset by cholera while the other was doing relatively well. He found that the water supply of
- 00:13:40the infected one was contaminated by, well... "Ahh yeah" "Did it just get warmer?"
- 00:13:45The other set of flats got its water from a cleaner supply. London had several water companies and they all had different ways
- 00:13:50of acquiring and filtering their water. Many got it from the Thames River, which was full of sewage,
- 00:13:55but the Lambeth Water Company had moved its intake point up stream, before the sewage was dumped into
- 00:14:00the river. Snow compared cholera incidents from Lambeth to that of the Southwark and Vauxhall Company, which
- 00:14:05still got its water downstream of the sewage pipe. Uh, by the way although these refer to different
- 00:14:10boroughs of London, in practice they both supplied adjacent households. As Snow observed:
- 00:14:39There was a huge mixture of people being supplied by each company. Nobody
- 00:14:43understood where their water came from and they certainly hadn't chosen their house with that in
- 00:14:48mind, if they' truly chosen it at all. People didn't yet know that cholera came from water, so they really
- 00:14:54were unwitting subjects in a great experiment. This is the ideal situation for social
- 00:14:59scientists: being able to treat everybody like inanimate chess pieces on a great board. Today,
- 00:15:04this kind of approach is known as 'difference in differences' and it's extremely common in
- 00:15:08quantitative research trying to investigate the causes of things. The 'difference' in the incidence
- 00:15:13of cholera over time could be measured in each household, then the further difference between
- 00:15:18households supplied by one company versus the other could be calculated. The difference in
- 00:15:23differences. The results of this experiment were Stark. Deaths were an order of magnitude higher in
- 00:15:29the households that received the sewage water: 3,155 per 10,000 people for the Southwark and Vauxhall
- 00:15:34company versus only 37 per 10,000 for the Lambeth Company. Snow reasoned that about 1,000 lives
- 00:15:41would have been saved if the former had moved their water intake point up the Thames, before
- 00:15:45the sewage release. And Broad Street? They had their water contaminated by a nearby cesspit, which is
- 00:15:51why cases clustered around their pump on Snow's map. It would be decades before the full theory
- 00:15:56of germs was developed and Snow's theory was not universally accepted until that time. Four years
- 00:16:01after his study, the summer of 1858 saw the Great Stink in London. There was visible, pungent sewage
- 00:16:07in the Thames and due to the miasma theory that disease traveled via foul air, this sparked enough
- 00:16:12outrage to effect change. It is also important to remember that it really, really, really smelled, like
- 00:16:18throughout London. Enough for serious historians and observers to call it the 'Great Stink'.
- 00:16:23"You guys realize you live in a sewer, right?" Joseph Bazalgette, another hero of this story, designed the solution.
- 00:16:29The reason for the Great Stink and cholera outbreaks was easy to identify for a modern observer: the
- 00:16:34Thames was basically an open sewer. Most waste was dumped directly there or otherwise found its way
- 00:16:40in. Drinking water was then pumped directly from it. People were drinking actual [ __ ] .
- 00:16:44Bazalgette helped to design a tunnel system for the sewers, with pumps aiding the transport of
- 00:16:49the sewage to less populated areas and to the sea. The project took over 10 years, but once it
- 00:16:54was completed cholera outbreaks stopped almost immediately. We still use the Bazalgette sewage system
- 00:16:59today. In the epidemic of 1866, New York followed Snow's recommendations and cut their death rate
- 00:17:05by a factor of 10, surprisingly in line with his quantitative prediction from London. Yet as late
- 00:17:10as 1892, Hamburg instead dug up all their corpses and carted them through town on the grounds that cholera
- 00:17:16was spread...through the ground. That had predictably disastrous effects. "Bring out your dead!"
- 00:17:23When we look back, it seems pretty disgusting that people were drinking sewage water. It's not only gross in itself
- 00:17:28(You know, because it's...poo) but because it was responsible for countless deaths and ill health
- 00:17:34at the time. It seems unfathomable to us that we'd allow this kind of water into our drinking taps.
- 00:17:40We'd never tolerate anything like that today, would we?
- 00:17:47We breathe 8-10 litres of air per minute. *Fry aggressively breathing*
- 00:17:53That is a vast amount of air: going into our lungs, floating around outside,
- 00:17:59going into buildings both going to and coming from people who are also breathing 8 to 10 litres
- 00:18:04of air per minute. To give you a rough idea of scale, if we were drinking 8 to 10 litres of water
- 00:18:10per day, we'd be overdoing it. We breathe about 10,000 litres of air per day. Airborne diseases
- 00:18:17therefore have ample opportunity to get into our systems and circulate, perhaps much more
- 00:18:23readily than waterborne diseases do. Measles and Tuberculosis are two examples of deadly
- 00:18:29airborne diseases that travel through aerosols, tiny particles that stay suspended in the air and
- 00:18:35can travel across long distances. I'm not trying to fearmonger here: air isn't causing a disease as
- 00:18:41deadly as cholera. Still, if we look back and wonder how people tolerated such disease ridden water,
- 00:18:48we might wonder why they tolerate such disease ridden air today. One answer might be that dirty
- 00:18:53air is less visible than dirty water. Another might be that it's less visceral: the thought of
- 00:18:59breathing dirty air doesn't really make me sick like the thought of drinking dirty water does. But
- 00:19:05a final reason might be that we've underestimated just how many diseases are airborne.
- 00:19:12Early in the covid pandemic, you may remember that we thought the Coronavirus was transported by droplets: as
- 00:19:18in, you sneeze or cough and those droplets land on a person or surface, getting into other people's
- 00:19:23systems through their noses or mouths. This is why everyone was washing their hands for 20
- 00:19:28seconds in 2020, to get rid of any stray droplets that might find their way in and infect you. There
- 00:19:33were also concerns about transmission through contact with surfaces or through fecal-oral
- 00:19:38transmission, which is one way cholera got around. All of these had in common that cleaning was the most important tool for prevention:
- 00:20:04Early in the pandemic, the WHO had tweeted: 'fact covid-19 is not airborne' but around a year in it became apparent that
- 00:20:10the WHO guidelines for what counts as airborne were all wrong. They had made the distinction between
- 00:20:15airborne versus droplet particles at 5 microns across, or 5 millionths of a meter. (About that
- 00:20:22much). The physicist Lindsey Marr could quickly see that this made no sense. Depending on things like
- 00:20:26temperature and wind, bigger particles could become airborne. The 5 micron guideline was
- 00:20:32always pretty arbitrary but ultimately just wrong. Nobody knew where five microns even
- 00:20:37came from. You'd think it would be from modern, rigorous trials that were repeated, say, every
- 00:20:42decade by public health authorities. Actually it was a misreading of a random paper written by
- 00:20:47an engineer about tuberculosis from 1955. Because of course. As early as 1934, William Firth Wells had
- 00:20:55collaborated with his wife Mildred Weeks Wells to investigate airborne diseases. For context,
- 00:21:00this was closer to Jon Snow's investigation into cholera than to the Coronavirus Pandemic. Do you
- 00:21:05feel old yet? The Wells' work seem to suggest a disease was airborne if it was under 100
- 00:21:10microns, not five. That's a pretty big difference: the WHO was out by a factor of 20. Where did the
- 00:21:165 micron cut off come from? William Wells was investigating tuberculosis, which can be deadly if
- 00:21:23it gets into the lungs. Wells had noticed that the mucus in the nose and throat could quite easily capture
- 00:21:28tuberculosis particles above five microns, rendering them harmless. An experiment with
- 00:21:33bunnies confirmed that they only became infected when a fine mist - under five microns - containing the
- 00:21:38virus was pumped into the chambers. A coarse mist - over five microns - which also contained
- 00:21:44tuberculosis was ineffective. (Poor bunnies). In the 1950s, Alexander Langmuir, the chief epidemiologist
- 00:21:51of the Center for Disease Control and prevention or CDC, was worried about chemical weapons during
- 00:21:56the Korean War. For this reason, he lifted the five micron number precisely because particles under
- 00:22:02this amount could be useful in chemical weapons. Like the tiny tuberculosis particles, they could
- 00:22:07get into the lungs and do massive damage. So even though five microns was only relevant for one
- 00:22:13disease and designed specifically to investigate not whether that disease was airborne but whether
- 00:22:18it could bypass the body's defenses, it all got lumped together. Despite having nothing to do with
- 00:22:22the physics, five microns became the standard for whether or not any disease was airborne and worked
- 00:22:27its way into WHO guidelines. And this was partially because of political concerns over chemical
- 00:22:33warfare. A bit of a mess, to be honest. As Lindsay Marr tried to rectify this, she encountered a great deal
- 00:22:39of resistance from public health officials, partly because such institutions are pretty rigid, partly
- 00:22:44because she was a physicist not a physician, and - let's be honest - likely in part because of some
- 00:22:49good old-fashioned sexism. Eventually, public health institutions relented and admitted that the Coronavirus
- 00:22:54was airborne, although their communication on the matter remains confusing. It's difficult
- 00:22:59to know how harmful this misconception was for recommendations made during the pandemic. On the
- 00:23:05one hand, we may have wasted a lot of time washing our hands and cleansing surfaces and putting up
- 00:23:10barriers to block droplets in schools, which if anything made covid worse. We underemphasize
- 00:23:15ventilation and the importance of outdoor spaces, making transmission worse and lockdown less
- 00:23:20bearable. On the other hand, the WHO was recommending masks even when they thought covid traveled in
- 00:23:25droplets and they work on both kinds of virus. It's also worth saying that institutions are sometimes
- 00:23:30rigid for good reason. They can't just change because of every person coming along with their
- 00:23:35Brave New Theory of Everything, like the people who appear in my live chat. Overall, it's hard to
- 00:23:40conclude that completely misdiagnosing the virus had no negative effects. Most important is that
- 00:23:45we have neglected airborne diseases like covid and flu for too long and now that we understand
- 00:23:51our mistakes, there's no excuse. Just like after Jon Snow published his findings, we have clear
- 00:23:56evidence. Just like the Great Stink of 1858, we have had a big and noticeable event to draw political
- 00:24:02attention to the problem. One of the ironies of history is that the discrediting of the miasma
- 00:24:07theory from Snow's time - which, remember, is the idea that disease traveled via smell, may have led to us
- 00:24:13being too sanguine about airborne infections. The work of the Well duo in the 1930s was largely
- 00:24:18dismissed by people like Langmuir because Airborne diseases seemed to hark back to the vague idea of
- 00:24:23an ethereal mist in the air that carried the disease. But...isn't it? Kind of? With Airborne
- 00:24:30diseases? One contemporary scientist joked that if we'd still believed in miasma theory, we might
- 00:24:35have contained covid better. A 2021 letter by 29 prominent scientists called for a paradigm shift
- 00:24:41in the way that we combat diseases like covid:
- 00:25:05Huhh!!! That's the name of the video!!
- 00:25:07We spend 90% of our time indoors. Probably 95% if you're a YouTuber who works from home and has sprained
- 00:25:13his ankle. (Sign up to my Patreon to pay for my rehabilitation). For a long time, the design of
- 00:25:19buildings proceeded as if airborne pathogens were not too much of a problem, focusing on other goals
- 00:25:25like comfort, energy use, or temperature. Reflecting their relative lack of attention to the topic, the
- 00:25:30WHO does not really have clear guidelines for designing these systems to control the
- 00:25:35level of respiratory infections in indoor spaces. There's a lot we don't know, precisely because we
- 00:25:40haven't been sufficiently focused on airborne pathogens. Although we understand respiratory
- 00:25:44illnesses in theory, in practice our approach to dealing with them is not much better than
- 00:25:49our approach to waterborne infections. In the 19th Century, the guidelines we had for covid
- 00:25:53and other diseases limited how aggressively we tried to prevent them. As the letter puts it:
- 00:26:15For a long time, we had been doing nothing. But now, indoor air quality is starting to get the attention it deserves.
- 00:26:21It goes beyond covid, too: in 2018, two chemists called the variety of harmful substances we are exposed to
- 00:26:27inside an 'indoor chemical cocktail'. On top of airborne pathogens from breathing, we release
- 00:26:32a lot of carbon dioxide ourselves, which can accumulate. Stoves and fires release particles
- 00:26:37of pollution; paint and materials used in building release dangerous toxins known as 'volatile organic
- 00:26:43compounds'; even the use of cosmetics and deodorant can contribute.
- 00:26:47"Fry, think fast!" *chokes* "Get it, it's chlorine! Hahaha"
- 00:26:55Since the pandemic, there has been a worrying uptick in a number of diseases,
- 00:26:58many of them respiratory. This owes to complex factors: maybe immune systems were weakened during
- 00:27:04lockdown; people are getting fewer vaccinations in general; poverty and living conditions have gotten
- 00:27:09worse in some locations; and climate change may even be contributing too. Regardless of the exact
- 00:27:14causes, both Influenza and Respiratory Syncytial Virus have worsened across the globe. Because
- 00:27:20people breathe in and also out, most strategies for combating infection revolve around ventilation.
- 00:27:26Catherine Noakes, an expert on indoor air quality and one of the scientists who penned the letter,
- 00:27:31suggests that the air in your average room should change completely between four to six times in an
- 00:27:36hour. In 2020, while the WHO was still officially claiming covid was transmitted by droplets, Noakes'
- 00:27:43own work was recommending ventilation and chiding the WHO for underestimating the risk
- 00:27:47of covid being airborne. It also suggested that in practice, ventilation can help significantly
- 00:27:52with both droplet and airborne diseases, and it can be difficult to know exactly which is more
- 00:27:57prevalent in a given indoor environment. Clearly, ventilation also helps with other dangerous
- 00:28:02pathogens like volatile organic compounds. "I'm sure those windmills will keep them cool!"
- 00:28:07"Windmills do not work that way! Good night!" So *laughs* when I looked into the ventilation literature, I hoped to find
- 00:28:13some cool diagrams and simulations to illustrate all of this to you. As you can see, they're mostly
- 00:28:18just funny drawings with, like, stick figures with little dots of airborne diseases moving around. I'm
- 00:28:24not trying to throw any shade; I just think it's quite cute that these papers on a very serious
- 00:28:28topic which contain advanced medical knowledge, rigorous experiments, and fancy mathematics,
- 00:28:33culminate in these illustrations. There's even a sun shining, like the kind of picture I drew when
- 00:28:38I was five . I's just missing the blue sky only at the top. There are a few different takeaways
- 00:28:43from Noakes' work: public buildings are the most important due to the volume of people and the
- 00:28:48fact that individuals cannot easily modify the environment, for example by opening a window.
- 00:28:53The ideal is to bring in new air: cleaning and disinfecting existing air is expensive and less
- 00:28:58effective. Portable air cleaners can help in the absence of entire ventilation systems.
- 00:29:03Ultraviolet lights can also help to kill some pathogens, especially in environments
- 00:29:07where outdoor ventilation is limited. And while I don't want to place too much responsibility
- 00:29:11on individuals, you might want to think about how often you open your windows,
- 00:29:15especially when cooking, smoking, burning candles, handling toxic waste, spraying deodrant directly
- 00:29:20into your own eyes just to feel something, you know, and so on. Literally every time I work on
- 00:29:24this script I end up opening my windows. Although that might let in more... [Music]
- 00:29:32in 2013, Ella Kissi Debrah died at just 9 years old after years of sporadic trips to hospital
- 00:29:39and multiple seizures. In 2020, she became the first person ever to have air pollution listed
- 00:29:46as a cause of her death. The coroner said that the London Borough of Lewisham, where she lived,
- 00:29:51had nitrogen dioxide and particulate matter levels that exceeded legal limits. Researchers
- 00:29:57have estimated that living in London is equivalent to smoking about 150 cigarettes a year. Now that...is
- 00:30:04as much as...well I suppose smoking 150 cigarettes a year communicates the point effectively. London
- 00:30:10is far from the worst, though. According to the Lancet Commission in 2019, 99% of the world's
- 00:30:17population was living in places where the WHO air quality guideline levels were not met. There are
- 00:30:23two broad categories of air pollution: first, deadly gases like ozone, carbon monoxide, and sulfur oxide.
- 00:30:29Each of these are directly poisonous and each has their own individual effects, for instance
- 00:30:34sulfur oxide in sufficient quantities can affect the cardiovascular system, causing heart problems
- 00:30:40and can even cause type 2 diabetes. The second category of pollution is the more general
- 00:30:44particulate matter, which is particles suspended in the air. Researchers are usually concerned
- 00:30:49about fine particulate matter - under 2.5 microns - as with tuberculosis, this can lodge inside the
- 00:30:56respiratory tract and inflame the lungs, impeding the efficiency of breathing. Inflammation can
- 00:31:01become chronic and spread to the bloodstream, once more affecting the cardiovascular system. There are
- 00:31:06more subtle influences of these compounds. It may not be fully understood, but it seems that
- 00:31:11especially fine particles can get into the nervous system and impair cognitive function, leading to
- 00:31:16fatigue or even to anxiety and depression. As you might expect, any effects on children are
- 00:31:21pronounced and longterm. The Lancet Commission reports that air pollution kills 6.5 million
- 00:31:27people each year, 10% of all Global deaths it also tops the list of avoidable deaths, according to our
- 00:31:33world in data. We really have no excuse. India stands out because it has 13 of the top 14
- 00:31:40polluted cities in the world. 1 million people a year die of air pollution in the country. In
- 00:31:45November 2021, Delhi shut down for months because of toxic smog which was equivalent to smoking
- 00:31:52several packets of cigarettes...per day. The city has the highest rate of respiratory illness in
- 00:31:58the world. China has struggled with air pollution. too. The other city in that top 14 list is Hotan
- 00:32:03in the Northwestern region of Xinjiang. You may remember this 2013 picture of Beijing and while
- 00:32:09the billboard was not there to replace the sun - it was just an advert - the pollution was real. 185 of
- 00:32:15the 350 worst polluted cities in the world are in China. Nearly 92% of pollution related deaths
- 00:32:22occur in low income and middle inome countries and in countries at every income level, disease caused
- 00:32:28by pollution is most prevalent among minorities and the marginalized. Even in 19th Century London
- 00:32:34the rich suffered less from cholera because their water was filtered. Economist Alex Tabarrok has
- 00:32:39claimed 'air pollution is even worse than you think' in a really interesting talk which gave
- 00:32:44me some great sources for this video. I'd play some of Tabarrok's actual lecture but the audio quality is
- 00:32:49so bad that it deserves its own Lancet Commission. In a blog post Tabarrok states:
- 00:33:26A 2011 study looked at the the introduction of EZ Pass tolls in New Jersey and Pennsylvania.
- 00:33:31Traditional toll booths required you to pay a person, then it upgraded
- 00:33:35to a machine using cash, then to card. EZ Pass tolls instead recognize your license plate and
- 00:33:41charge you automatically so you don't have to stop at all when driving through. As you can see
- 00:33:45from this picture of a toll in the area beforehand, the- holy [ __ ] the motorways in the USA actually
- 00:33:50look like this? Ban cars! EZ Pass tolls massively reduce traffic around the toll booth
- 00:33:55and therefore reduce emissions. Of most concern with cars is carbon monoxide or CO, which they
- 00:34:01emit in buckets and which is extremely dangerous. "Gas was an environmental disaster anyway. Now we use alternative fuels."
- 00:34:08"Like what?" "Whale oil" As the authors of the study put it:
- 00:34:43They look at the areas around the tolls before
- 00:34:45and after the introduction of the EZ Passes. The tolls were changed quite quickly and were
- 00:34:50not part of a general anti-air pollution campaign. They were designed to alleviate congestion, just as
- 00:34:55with Jon Snow and the taps, there's a good argument that people weren't really aware of any of this so
- 00:35:00their behaviour doesn't confound the estimates. For instance, rich healthy people moving into the area
- 00:35:05knowing it will become less polluted. It seems like a sudden unanticipated change or 'exogenous'
- 00:35:11in economists' parlance. They plot the toll plazas that were automated in green. They then look
- 00:35:16at people who live within 2 km of them, as well as any nearby measures of air pollution. Using
- 00:35:22methods which are similar to Snow's in spirit but a bit more sophisticated in practice, they estimate
- 00:35:27the difference in differences for birth weight and premature births. This compares the change among
- 00:35:32those who live close to the tolls, to the change among those who live further away. Even looking
- 00:35:36at the map, you can see clear echoes of Snow's approach. They found big effects for a study like
- 00:35:42this: the introduction of the EZ tolls reduced premature births by 10.8% and reduced incidences
- 00:35:48of low birth weight by 11.8%. In concrete terms, this means 255 pre-term births were averted, along
- 00:35:55with 275 low weight births. Of course, many of these will be the same baby as many pre-term
- 00:36:01births are low weight. The effects don't compound; they're just two reflections of the same thing.
- 00:36:06Still, pretty remarkable stuff. Unfortunately, the nearby monitors can't measure carbon monoxide, but
- 00:36:12they do measure a 7 to 20% reduction in nitrogen dioxide, which the authors estimate should map
- 00:36:18on to a much larger reduction in CO. So you can see that a lot of this is preventable. In 2013,
- 00:36:25China's Government declared war on air pollution. Among the steps they took were: prohibiting new
- 00:36:30coal power plants in key areas; requiring existing coal plants to reduce emissions or replacing them
- 00:36:35with natural gas; restricting the number of cars on the road; reducing iron and steel production;
- 00:36:40removing coal boilers from homes to replace them with gas or electric ones. This is all pretty
- 00:36:45aggressive: they literally curtailed industry and changed the appliances in individual homes.
- 00:36:51As this graph shows, the results were a success across the board concentrations of particulate
- 00:36:56matter fell in every city in seven years, a pretty remarkable achievement. each bar here shows a city
- 00:37:01and the 2013 numbers are in dark grey whereas the 2021s are in light grey. The Government actually
- 00:37:07achieved its targets faster than anticipated and in most cities they basically reached their own
- 00:37:12standard: the orange line. Obviously, there is still a way to go and all are well above WHO guidelines:
- 00:37:18the red line. But China is winning its war on air pollution. The authors estimate that this
- 00:37:22translates into several years of life expectancy. The average denizen of Beijing can expect to live
- 00:37:274.6 years longer because air pollution has more than halved in the city. This is amazing and for
- 00:37:34many, the measures will literally have saved their lives. Mexico City used to be the worst city in
- 00:37:39the world for air pollution. Sitting in a valley which trapped pollutants, along with poor quality
- 00:37:44cars using toxic fuel, and in the early stages of industrialization, it also decided to declare war
- 00:37:50on air pollution. Today, it still has a problem but it's way outside the top polluted cities,
- 00:37:55having severely limited use of those cars. It seems that even when trapped by geographic factors, major
- 00:38:01progress can be made. The air we breathe isn't just bad...it's really bad. In terms of deaths it's like,
- 00:38:09comparable to the pandemic that just ravaged our world but also...is the pandemic, so solving
- 00:38:14it would have helped both. It's also comparable to the predicted effects of climate change but
- 00:38:19also...is climate change, so solving it would help both. In the 19th Century, people didn't know that
- 00:38:27sewage contained disease. Today, we don't have an excuse. We know that diseases are airborne and we know
- 00:38:34that the effects of air pollution may be even worse than those diseases. Don't forget, as well
- 00:38:40that a good chunk of those 10 million deaths in the Lancet Commission still come from dirty
- 00:38:44water. The evidence of the negative effects of air pollution, arborne diseases, and dirty
- 00:38:50air more generally is overwhelming it comes from across a variety of disciplines: biology,
- 00:38:56medicine, epidemiology, economics, engineering. We have high level associations; we have plausible
- 00:39:04biological mechanisms; and we have very good causal evidence bridging the gap between these
- 00:39:10two. Negative externalities single out pollution as worthy of government intervention in every
- 00:39:17introductory economics textbook on the planet and many economists who are seemingly on the right
- 00:39:21are fighting this battle for that reason. Alex Tabarrok is at George Mason University, at libertarian
- 00:39:27haven. Michael Greenstone - who co-authored that report on China's war on air pollution - is
- 00:39:34the Milton Friedman Professor at the University of Chicago. This shouldn't even be a partisan
- 00:39:39issue, at least in the recognition of the problem. Yet we are accepting a world filled with horrible...
- 00:39:46sewage air. From airborne pathogens to airborne toxins, we're breathing a cocktail that's filled
- 00:39:52with so much crap that I can only hope that future generations will look back in disgust.
- 00:39:59So there you go: a nice video about the importance of clean air, even
- 00:40:03with a cute cartoon reference to hook you in. Bet you didn't realize you'd learn about
- 00:40:07difference in difference estimators when I was talking about Futurama, did you? Har har har.
- 00:40:12We've even kept it pretty short by modern YouTube standards. That's all we need to say. *UE trying to hold exit pose*
- 00:40:23For [ __ ] sake! [Music]
- 00:40:29This is Konstantin Kisin. He's been popping up wherever I look
- 00:40:32recently and he has a habit of saying things as if they are profound when they aren't.
- 00:40:37"The single line that has made the greatest impact to my understanding of the world is is from Thomas Sowell,
- 00:40:42who to me, is one of the greatest modern thinkers. There are no solutions, only trade-offs. You're not
- 00:40:48going to solve climate change; you're not going to solve anything. You can make adjustments - and
- 00:40:54you know this much better than I do from being in government - every policy has a tradeoff. And very
- 00:41:00often, not every- I think always, actually - the reason that issues become difficult and controversial is
- 00:41:07precisely because the tradeoffs are as bad as the solution. Quite often, what we can do is tinker at
- 00:41:12the edges and improve certain aspects of it...at the cost of others."
- 00:41:17Okay...there's some truth in this. Every time we try to achieve a goal it costs us: time, labour, resources. True in our personal lives
- 00:41:25as well as for society. We could always have done something else with those resources. It's also
- 00:41:30true that designing good policy is a challenge. Policies can have unintended consequences and
- 00:41:35generally speaking, at least some group or outcome will be negatively affected, if only slightly, by
- 00:41:41any given policy. The statement being made here is much stronger, though. It's an admonition that we
- 00:41:46can't solve major problems without incurring major costs. The idea is one of trade-offs: if you want X,
- 00:41:52you can't have Y. If you want health, you can't have the environment; if you want economic growth,
- 00:41:58you can't have equality. Distinct economic, social, and political aims are necessarily opposed to a
- 00:42:04significant extent. Kisin has repeatedly insisted that he is not a conservative:
- 00:42:10"You know, as you know I'm not conservative. I certainly have some conservative views; I have some not conservative views."
- 00:42:14"*laughs* I'm definitely not conservative...uh I don't know what being on the right means anymore."
- 00:42:20"The way I conceptualize my political views is: first of all, I hate teams. I like being part of a team
- 00:42:28that I've chosen to be part of." Yeah, I remember my first politics. I'm sorry but the trade-off
- 00:42:33mindset is a conservative talking point in the literal sense. Saying that we can't solve social,
- 00:42:39political, economic, and environmental problems? That it will just cost us elsewhere? Is this not
- 00:42:44a generalized argument against change? Look, Kisin is free to identify personally in any way that he
- 00:42:50likes - although judging from his general output, he probably identifies as an attack helicopter,
- 00:42:55amirite? (2016 called and they want their podcast title back). His main example is covid itself. He argues
- 00:43:03that lockdowns may have cost more lives than they saved. This could be for reasons of mental
- 00:43:07health, lost economic output, or prioritizing covid over other diseases. He says we "don't know":
- 00:43:15"Yes, locking down the country may- may, we don't know - may have caused more people to die, but locking
- 00:43:21down the country also cause more people to die." I think we do know a bit more than he's letting on
- 00:43:25but for reasons of scope, allow me to sidestep that massive debate and focus once more on air
- 00:43:30quality. One tradeoff for indoor air quality is energy use: we've tried to seal off our indoor
- 00:43:36environments tighter and tighter in the name of keeping heat in, but this has lowered air
- 00:43:41circulation and allowed airborne diseases to spread more easily. A 2023 study showed that as
- 00:43:47you increase the ventilation in buildings, you can massively lower the transmission of covid,
- 00:43:51but also that this will cost both financially and in terms of energy used as the heat gets let out.
- 00:43:57There is a tradeoff. So does this example prove Kisin's point? Well...no, because he turns it into
- 00:44:04a universal statement about reality as opposed to a specific feature of specific problems. He turns
- 00:44:10it from a challenge to be overcome into a small C conservative copout. The study also shows how much
- 00:44:17transmission of covid is reduced when you add a heat recovery system to the ventilation. This is
- 00:44:23just a standard, commercially available system that recycles waste heat from old air by transferring
- 00:44:28it to new, clean and shiny air coming in. The heat recovery system doesn't cost that much and may
- 00:44:33even save money over the long term. It is basically a free lunge and the authors of the 2023 study
- 00:44:39recommend a scenario with an enhanced ventilation and heat recovery system for that reason. A letter
- 00:44:45in Nature about indoor air quality put it in almost exactly these terms:
- 00:44:58You might say that someone like Kisin isn't against technological solutions
- 00:45:02but is referring to political ones. Trade-offs might reign in the realm of policy because of
- 00:45:06the scarce resources available to us at any one time. Those pesky politicians promise things they
- 00:45:12just can't deliver, damn it! Actually, policy is where the argument really falls apart. It's not
- 00:45:17that fighting airborne diseases at a society-wide level will improve our health outcomes ~at the cost
- 00:45:22of others~. It's that it will have a wide range of positive effects, including on economic outcomes.
- 00:45:28The idea that we cannot afford it...that we have to give up some 'economy' to get 'health' or 'environment'
- 00:45:34is straightforwardly false. For a start, the broader costs of not having proper systems for
- 00:45:38dealing with these airborne pathogens are large. Even before the covid pandemic shook the economy,
- 00:45:44it has been estimated that through missed work hours, health care costs, and lower productivity,
- 00:45:49influenza and other respiratory illnesses cost the US economy over $50 billion a year. In the
- 00:45:55open letter from the scientists, they claim that for the construction of new buildings the cost
- 00:46:00of bringing ventilation up to scratch is only 1% of total construction costs. That is an achievable
- 00:46:06solution to indoor air quality for older buildings. It is, of course, going to be a bit more complicated
- 00:46:11and less can be achieved at greater cost but over time there's no reason we cannot solve the problem,
- 00:46:17as we did with sewage. Now if you're wondering why I'm getting very specific and angry about [ __ ]
- 00:46:22ventilation systems, firstly you must be new here. "You are technically correct, the best kind of correct!"
- 00:46:29But secondly, it's because I really hate these general statements like the one made by
- 00:46:33Kisin. They are usually disproved by a simple, even trivial example like a heat recovery system.
- 00:46:39With some initial investment and a relatively small uptick in energy usage you can reduce the
- 00:46:44transmission of covid and even save money over the long term. These are what you could, I suppose
- 00:46:50call tradeons, and they're as common as tradeoffs. You can only decide which is more pressing on a
- 00:46:55case-by-case basis. And even then you can use your imagination to overcome seeming trade-offs.
- 00:47:01The overemphasis on trade-offs is something which is often associated with Economics. Konstantin
- 00:47:07Kisin - shock - got it from the conservative Economist Thomas Sowell. Even the comedian Jimmy
- 00:47:12Carr repeated it on the Diary of a CEO: "There's no solutions, only tradeoffs, you know. Thomas Sowell, isn't it?"
- 00:47:19Podcasts must be stopped. In the viral Oxford Union talk that propelled him to his current
- 00:47:23status, Kisin mostly just ranted about wokeness: "I will join you in worshiping at the feet of St
- 00:47:29Greta of climate change." But he ascended beyond this by making a couple of empirical claims which are wrong.
- 00:47:34"'cuz the future of the climate is going to be decided in Asia and in Latin America, by poor
- 00:47:39people, who couldn't give a [ __ ] about saving the planet." Actually, poor people across the world
- 00:47:44do care about saving the planet, probably because they stand to be more impacted by it. If you're in
- 00:47:50Bangladesh, which may largely go underwater and also has the worst air pollution in the world,
- 00:47:55you gain from pro-environmental initiatives. "You're probably wondering why your ice cream went
- 00:48:00away. Well, Susie the culprit isn't foreigners...it's global warming!" Gwobal wubba.
- 00:48:08Polls from Pew research show that people across the world are concerned with climate change and this is above average in
- 00:48:13Africa and Latin America, two continents known for having high levels of poverty. Even poorer people
- 00:48:19within rich countries usually care more about climate change, probably because they're also
- 00:48:24more likely to be impacted by it. They can't just sell their houses and move. When the actually good
- 00:48:29podcast Decoding the Gurus pointed this out, Kisin replied with this remark:
- 00:48:35"Well Konstantin says that poor people don't care about the environment which is absolutely 100% not in any way what
- 00:48:42I said. What I said is poor people don't care about climate change." Environment, not climate change. Talk
- 00:48:49about being pedantic in all the wrong ways! I mean, how could anyone possibly have thought you were
- 00:48:53talking about the environment in your talk? Kisin actually used the words "saving the planet" by the way:
- 00:48:59"...is going to be decided in Asia and in Latin America, by poor people who couldn't give a [ __ ] about
- 00:49:05saving the planet." Anyway, the statement was wrong for any of them, Konstantin! Environment! Saving
- 00:49:10the planet! Climate change! Poor people care about all of these things because they're more affected
- 00:49:14by them! Here's a separate poll from Our World in Data about support for policies to tackle climate
- 00:49:18change. Which countries are at the top? Asian, African, and Latin American ones! "Where do you think
- 00:49:24climate change ranks on Xi Jinping's list of priorities?" Erm, high? He's said so? China is a leader in many green
- 00:49:33technologies and climate efforts, including their war on air pollution? Do some basic fact checking!
- 00:49:38Or at least respond to criticism by telling us what data you were using to support your
- 00:49:43point, not by getting pedantic about word choice! "I'm definitely not conservative..uh I don't know
- 00:49:49what being on the right means anymore...uh the way I conceptualize my political views is...first of all I hate teams"
- 00:49:57*laughs* "I like being part of a team that I've chosen to be part of."
- 00:50:03Kisin's argument that solving poverty and growing the economy will negatively impact the environment is a veiled reference to
- 00:50:09something called the Environmental Kuznets Curve. This is an upside down U-shape, which depicts the
- 00:50:14relationship between economic growth and the environment. The thought is that the early days
- 00:50:19of growth imply smoke-filled factories and toxic mining, leading to environmental damage. This peaks
- 00:50:25at middle income until countries can afford to invest in more expensive green technologies, set
- 00:50:30aside wildlife sanctuaries that are unproductive, and so on. "And for every day of my son's life a
- 00:50:36giant plume of CO2 is going to get released into the atmosphere." "You are not going to get these people to stay poor."
- 00:50:44Alex Tabarrok does not think that the EKC is too relevant. This is from a part of the video with good audio:
- 00:50:50And I think what all of these studies about pollution and productivity
- 00:50:53hello everybody I like using tabo's example example but I don't want to confuse anybody.
- 00:50:58So the version of the Environmental Kuznets Curve he has here is slightly different to the one I've
- 00:51:03been talking about, actually the axes are flipped so pollution is on the x- axis and GDP is on the
- 00:51:09y- axis. For me it was the reverse. Don't worry too much about the exact graph, the point that
- 00:51:16we're making is the same. "...are indicating is that actually we may be in the double dividend region."
- 00:51:22"That it may be that actually on the margin, you can have less pollution and more GDP, and more
- 00:51:29GDP. So we are here is the argument. Less pollution, more health, and more wealth."
- 00:51:37In 2019, an OECD study found that the level of air pollution in Europe may be reducing economic growth. They highlight
- 00:51:45a few channels through which pollution impacts health, all of which are well established. First,
- 00:51:50reducing the size of the working population through deaths and immigration. Second, reducing
- 00:51:55hours worked per worker through sickness. Third, reducing productivity at work through physical
- 00:52:01and cognitive decline. Fourth, damaging crops and other resource stocks reducing productivity in
- 00:52:06sectors like agriculture or fishing. These effects are contemporaneous, meaning that they ignore the
- 00:52:12likely substantial long-term effects such as those on children. It is merely the effect of
- 00:52:18air pollution on GDP growth as it's happening. You might be thinking that this is a pretty
- 00:52:23difficult thing to estimate: after all, growth effects pollution and pollution affects growth.
- 00:52:29Technology impacts both of them. There are all kinds of statistical issues to iron out with big
- 00:52:34questions like this. The OECD study uses what are called thermal inversions to isolate the effects
- 00:52:40of pollution. Thermal inversions happen when a layer of cooler air becomes trapped in the lower
- 00:52:45atmosphere. Usually air rises up the atmosphere and this reduces air pollution at the surface. Air also
- 00:52:52gets cooler the higher you go up. But by trapping cool air at the bottom, a thermal conversion can
- 00:52:57prevent this from happening, leaving the pollution at a level where humans breathe it in. The study
- 00:53:01controls for a wide range of other variables - most notably weather - to make sure they are isolating
- 00:53:07the impact of pollution on growth. Results show that a decrease of particulate matter 2.5 by 1
- 00:53:13microgram per meter cubed would increase European GDP by 0.8% in a given year, or around 12 billion
- 00:53:21Euros, or around €200 per person. You see: on the one hand, this is based on nothing. On the other hand,
- 00:53:29it is a curve - the shape of science! You might say that the Environmental Kuznets Curve refers to
- 00:53:34poor countries and that the Europeans are rich. But there are plenty of low to middle-income countries
- 00:53:39in Eastern Europe and the predicted benefits are actually higher for those countries. Reminder that
- 00:53:45one of Kisin's examples is actually Russia, also a middle-income country:
- 00:53:49"I come from Russia, which is not a poor country it's a middle-income country. 20% of households in Russia do not have have an indoor toilet."
- 00:53:57The Environmental Kuznets Curve is not really considered a credible idea anymore. As the Lancet Commission put it:
- 00:54:12Of course, there's nuance here. China's plan to reduce
- 00:54:15pollution, in typical totalitarian style, directly limited Industries and went into people's homes to
- 00:54:21change their cookers. It's fair to say that this probably reduced economic growth and was also
- 00:54:26politically intrusive. So you could consider those tradeoffs. However, they are trade-offs
- 00:54:31that result from specific choices made in one place at one time, just like the trade-offs of
- 00:54:35the covid lockdown resulted from specific choices so they varied by country. You can't make universal
- 00:54:41statements about tradeoffs; you have to consider the specifics. To sum up, a bunch of distinct
- 00:54:46statements are in danger of being lumped together here:
- 00:55:09"No one's going to solve the NHS, no one's going to solve climate change, no one's
- 00:55:12going to solve anything. What we can do is tinker at the edges and improve certain aspects of it
- 00:55:18at the cost of others." This conservative talking point has its roots in a certain way of thinking
- 00:55:24which has become influential in policy, as the Lancet Commission said of air pollution:
- 00:55:29the great magnitude of this cost they are largely invisible and often are not recognized as caused
- 00:55:56Ohhhh! This is finally an unlearning economics video!
- 00:56:04We need to start thinking about like buses and stuff I'm sick of all these bloody cars. Look at this! I mean that is just horrible.
- 00:56:12In Thinking Like an Economist: How Efficiency replaced Equity in US Public Policy,
- 00:56:17sociologist Elizabeth Popp-Berman highlights how a certain mindset began
- 00:56:21to pervade US governance in the late 20th Century. One of Popp-Berman's very first examples
- 00:56:28is the Clean Air Act. This was implemented in 1970 and revised in 1990. It aimed to combat the
- 00:56:34effects of air pollutants on public health and welfare. It set limits on the level of pollution
- 00:56:39companies were allowed to emit. It was a rigid and inflexible rule so that it could not be
- 00:56:44easily evaded. And it horrified economists because it didn't consider the tradeoffs associated with this action
- 00:56:51"...but they were saying look well I mean, reducing pollution sure, you know pollution is bad
- 00:56:55but reducing it has costs as well as benefits." Tradeoffs seemed to obsess economists at the
- 00:57:01time. When the Environmental Protection Agency was considering reducing aircraft noise under
- 00:57:06President Gerald Ford, economist Jim Miller argued the reduction of this annoyance imposes costs:
- 00:57:22...he then took this even further...
- 00:57:32In another cruel irony of history, an economist called John Snow
- 00:57:36became head of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration and began watering down transport
- 00:57:41regulations because he thought they didn't take these costs into account. Other John Snows across
- 00:57:46history looked on in disgust. Non-economists in policy had, of course, considered the economy but
- 00:57:52so-called economic feasibility was not just about regulation being costly or even being destructive
- 00:57:59to individual firms. It was only about regulation threatening an entire industry. It was there but
- 00:58:06it was a high bar. The Clean Air Act was extremely stringent on standards for emissions: lines which
- 00:58:11just couldn't be crossed. For the economists, this meant pushing emissions down to a level
- 00:58:15which incurred unreasonable costs for industry and growth. They wanted to map out all of the tradeoffs
- 00:58:21across the economy and only reduce emissions until it began to threaten other outcomes.
- 00:58:26In practice, this would have meant much lower emission standards. (Is that lower or higher? Harsher
- 00:58:31on industry! More pollution! That's what I mean! Good save...) In the earlier debates over the Clean Air Act,
- 00:58:37the point was precisely that mother nature is sacred. The idea of buying a right to pollute
- 00:58:42was considered morally objectionable. The goal was for humans to live in harmony with the environment
- 00:58:47and appreciate that it was all interrelated. If we interfered with nature too much, it might come
- 00:58:52back to bite us. In the end economists fail to get their objections noted and the Clean Air Act was
- 00:58:57passed, albeit with a touch of watering down due to Industry lobbying. The original act was successful
- 00:59:02and is widely celebrated today: between 1970 and 1994 it lowered particulate 2.5 by about 40%.
- 00:59:10But economists would soon make their own Clean Air Act, with blackjack, and hookers. Economists got their
- 00:59:16revenge when the act was amended in the 1990s. Now there was plenty of reference to the "tradeoffs"
- 00:59:22from regulation. Remember the idea of externalities from the start of the video? Market prices fail to
- 00:59:28include external cost to third parties like pollution. The economists' solution is obvious:
- 00:59:33include the costs in the price. Such policies are known as 'internalizing the externality'. Businesses
- 00:59:40and customers are charged the right amount for emitting but unlike the original Clean Air Act
- 00:59:45they are not banned from doing so. Therefore, if the benefits to emitting more - for example, in
- 00:59:50terms of productivity or growth - are higher than the costs they have to pay, businesses will do so.
- 00:59:56We get the optimal amount of emissions. Now, I want to highlight quickly that Konstantin Kisin
- 01:00:02acknowledges this point: "I think the market often ignores significant externalities of the things, um
- 01:00:08you know the wrong structure creates the wrong perverse incentives for companies to then take
- 01:00:12advantage of" ...so it's not that he's against pro-environmental policy; it's just that most
- 01:00:17of the things he says about environmental policy are wrong. And even this policy may not be enough,
- 01:00:22as we'll see. Externalities can be internalized through a simple tax on emissions or maybe a
- 01:00:28cap and trade scheme which issues tradable permits to emit. It was the latter that was
- 01:00:32put into practice in the 1990s. Before the updated Clean Air Act, acid rain was a massive problem in
- 01:00:39the USA. Many power plants were burning a type of coal that was high in Sulphur and previous attempts
- 01:00:45at direct regulation had not helped. Right in line with economics textbooks, economists pushed for a
- 01:00:50sulphur dioxide cap and trading scheme. It is widely regarded as successful reducing sulphur dioxide
- 01:00:57emissions by 94% and stopping acid rain entirely. It has served as a model for other successful
- 01:01:04schemes across the globe. This idea has obvious appeal, but this style of thinking has been picked
- 01:01:09up and misapplied by conservative commentators for one simple reason: it tells you you can't have it
- 01:01:15all. Now, let's get one thing out of the way: am I saying that all economists are conservatives...
- 01:01:22Yeah. Yeah.
- 01:01:24There was an old blogger I used to follow called Squarely Rooted. One of the things he wrote back in the day has stuck with me:
- 01:02:12Pundits who quote Thomas Sowell to push conservative agendas are doing big E economics. Economists who estimate the effects
- 01:02:19of air pollution in the drive EZ are doing small E economics. The economists pushing against almost
- 01:02:25any regulation in the 50s and 60s were doing big E economics. The economists who designed the sulfphur
- 01:02:31dioxide trading scheme to augment the updated Clean Air Act we're doing Small E economics.
- 01:02:36The Environmental Kuznets Curve is Big E economics. Now, big E economics does find its roots in small
- 01:02:43E economics. Sure: it's a dated, watered down, even caricatured version of the discipline, but you can
- 01:02:49easily trace it back to key ideas you learn as a student. Alan Einthoven - an economist who worked in the US Defense Administration - stated in 1963:
- 01:03:07Elizabeth Popp-Berman argues that this way of thinking is an appeal to economic efficiency
- 01:03:12as the main goal and a commitment to markets as a route to achieve this efficiency. Let's be
- 01:03:17clear: this is more subtle than the things said by people like Sowell, let alone Kisin. It's also more
- 01:03:23correct. But historically the implication has been that pursuing environmental and social goals often
- 01:03:29mean sacrificing economic efficiency. Market-based schemes are favoured because they purportedly balance
- 01:03:36these competing tradeoffs by allowing households and businesses to decide which level of emissions
- 01:03:41suits them by paying for it. You can reasonably make the argument that regulation in the past
- 01:03:46was unwise to ignore some of the tradeoffs, as well as the options economists put on the
- 01:03:50table to account for them, but equally there are crucial things that the economic approach misses.
- 01:03:55The original Clean Air Act was so strict because it was designed to avoid the watering down of
- 01:04:00what were meant to be transformative changes. Flexible rules are more prone to regulatory
- 01:04:05capture than red lines and you'd be more likely to see companies wiggle out of them, stymying the shift
- 01:04:10to a low carbon economy. To my mind, both small and big E economics underestimate the potential
- 01:04:17for transformative change. Transformative change can accomplish multiple goals at
- 01:04:22once. London was becoming unlivable before its modern sewage system; the Great Stink was so
- 01:04:28bad that Parliament actually couldn't sit. Deadly epidemics aren't exactly good for other outcomes,
- 01:04:32either. Was it the case that solving the sewage problem negatively impacted other outcomes? No,
- 01:04:40solving it was necessary for London to move forward at all. And despite everything, I like London!
- 01:04:51Today, a huge sewage pipeline has been completed to further the project: the Thames Tideway.
- 01:04:56This aims to drain almost all of the remaining sewage from the Thames. Unlike so many similar
- 01:05:01projects, this has proceeded largely as planned, on time, and within budget. In so many places we are
- 01:05:07trapped in a high air pollution model, just as they were trapped in a high water pollution model in
- 01:05:1219th Century London. And there's no better example than cars in America. Many zoning laws actually
- 01:05:19require you to create parking spaces alongside commercial or residential buildings. Games like
- 01:05:25Cities: Skylines emulate this lack of imagination because literally everything in the game requires
- 01:05:30a road. You can't even build a park without an attached road, which is a weird echo of the
- 01:05:35zoning practices in the US that require car parks when you build a building. This is why the game
- 01:05:40is notorious for becoming a traffic management simulator. There are cars everywhere! People won't
- 01:05:45respond to these incentives in the same way when they're locked in. You can't magically cycle into
- 01:05:51work when the price of petrol increases, if you live HERE. "Was this game developed by the YouTuber
- 01:05:57not just bikes to illustrate how bad cars are?" Ban cars! The idea behind putting a price on carbon is
- 01:06:04that by making emissions more expensive, this will incentivise businesses to invest in lower
- 01:06:09emissions technologies and incentivise consumers to buy them. Properly designed, it aligns the
- 01:06:14trade-offs of emitting to go where they should be. And it worked for sulfur dioxide emissions, right?
- 01:06:19There is an idea known as carbon lock-in which refers to the fact that most economies and societies
- 01:06:25today are dependent on emitting greenhouse gases. As Rosenbloom et al put it:
- 01:07:14You may respond that if a carbon tax doesn't
- 01:07:15change behaviour, the price just isn't high enough, so increase the tax. But if you squeeze people
- 01:07:21tight enough without providing an alternative, they'll just rebel. This is what happened with
- 01:07:26the Gillette-Jaunes protests in France when the tax on petrol was increased. Truckers, farmers, and other
- 01:07:32workers still had to buy petrol to get to work so the policy simply made them poorer. You can see
- 01:07:37this failure further through how many countries have been resistant to carbon pricing. Today, they
- 01:07:42only cover 20% of the globe and most of the ones that exist are at pretty low levels. The economists'
- 01:07:48reason for this is that it's political or because of vested interests. Narrowly this may be true, but
- 01:07:54we have to ask why the resistance is there. As of 2019, Swedish carbon taxes were around $132
- 01:08:02per ton of CO2, the highest in the world. They were applied to the transport sector but were
- 01:08:07much lower for industry, agriculture, and entirely exempted electricity generation owing to fears
- 01:08:13of export competitiveness. A well-known paper by Julius Andersson compared Swedish transport to the
- 01:08:19rest of Europe and found that emissions from transport declined by 11% or 40 million tons.
- 01:08:25Fantastic! But is it enough? This graph shows total CO2 emissions from road transportation
- 01:08:32in Sweden between 1990 and 2015. As you can see, the amount is roughly constant with a gradual rise at
- 01:08:39the start followed by a relatively rapid decline more recently. Now let me ask you a question: when
- 01:08:45do you think the carbon tax was introduced? Was it here, or maybe here? Actually, it was in 1991 at the
- 01:08:53start of the sample. Even though credible causal analysis shows that the carbon tax had a sizable
- 01:08:59effect, it wasn't visible in the raw emissions data, which is what matters for achieving environmental
- 01:09:05targets. Total emissions from road transportation are roughly stagnant over the period, though they
- 01:09:10may have risen in absence of the tax. I'm not saying the carbon tax had no effect; I'm saying
- 01:09:16that it's not enough. If you define the problem as reducing emissions substantially, the carbon
- 01:09:21tax has not achieved that. The economist Roger Backhouse has reflected that the sulphur trading
- 01:09:26scheme probably worked because it was quite a contained problem. It was one pollutant in one
- 01:09:31country with a small number of firms who could be monitored and regulated easily. The businesses
- 01:09:36that could afford low sulphur coal or scrubbers that reduced emissions did so and could then sell
- 01:09:41their permits to the ones for whom it was more costly. The alternatives existed; businesses just
- 01:09:46needed a nudge. The emissions target was also below a threshold rather than being zero. In
- 01:09:52contrast, climate change is a global problem that touches on almost every industry from construction to
- 01:09:58transport to energy. There is evidence that businesses don't fundamentally change their
- 01:10:02approaches much in the face of carbon taxes; they just tend to improve their existing strategies
- 01:10:08rather than transforming them, which is exactly what the factories emitting sulphur dioxide did.
- 01:10:13It just worked in that case! New diesel and petrol vehicle registrations in Sweden have
- 01:10:18still grown over the carbon tax period. This is a situation where emissions need to be effectively
- 01:10:23zero: complete decarbonization. Those who think carbon taxes are the solution may want to
- 01:10:30consider that when democratic politics prevents you from doing something then sometimes - just
- 01:10:36sometimes - it's because people are seeing things that your theories are not. And when one lever
- 01:10:41isn't working quite as well as you'd hoped, it's time to pull another. Again, I'm not against carbon
- 01:10:46taxes whatsoever. If a global carbon tax were passed tomorrow, I'd be ecstatic...
- 01:10:52But this is unlikely: without much bigger changes evidence suggests that taxes will not reduce pollution enough to
- 01:10:59clean the air and prevent further climate change. Our carbon dependency needs more than a nudge; it
- 01:11:04needs a shove. Transformative change requires sustained political action and imagination.
- 01:11:10"Hey wait! I'm having one of those things...you know, a headache with pictures!" "An idea?" "Mhm"
- 01:11:17I've been quite impressed by the Biden administration's ability to heed these challenges. They have
- 01:11:22massively increased subsidies in renewable energy; invested in improving indoor air quality; invested
- 01:11:27in public transport. This all seems to be producing an economic boom alongside falling emissions and
- 01:11:32has improved the quality of life for many people. And I don't want to 'bat for team Biden' too much
- 01:11:38I'm just saying that these seem like solutions which feature trade-ons. And I also know that's
- 01:11:43a crap term so try and think of a better one in the comments! Virtuous cycle? The Norwegian capital
- 01:11:48of Oslo has been even more radical, removing parking spaces for cars entirely. Transport
- 01:11:53via tram or bike has become easier and not only has this massively reduced pollution, but
- 01:11:58despite their initial skepticism, businesses are making more money due to increased pedestrian
- 01:12:03activity in the city. "Shut up and take my money!" Seriously, ban cars!
- 01:12:08This seems to be closer to the approach in Cities: Skylines II too but apparently that game is rubbish.
- 01:12:12There are major steps we can take that will improve the quality of our air. This will reduce the transmission of airborne
- 01:12:18pathogens, of pollution related diseases, will increase visibility and reduce discomfort. These
- 01:12:23benefits will in turn reduce health care expenses, increase productivity, and reduce sick days. Quality
- 01:12:29of life, especially in cities and especially in poorer countries, will increase dramatically.
- 01:12:33There will likely even be positive effects on the economy. This is a workable path to clean air.
- 01:12:44Environmentalism is an important theme of Futurama. The 31st Century has clearly
- 01:12:49managed to survive the array of environmental challenges presented by the 21st Century, but
- 01:12:53it hasn't exactly solved them. In fact, they just seem to scale to Galactic proportions. There are
- 01:13:00dark matter oil spills on Pluto; the building of a giant mini golf course will destroy 12% of the
- 01:13:07Milky Way Galaxy: "What? you're going to wipe out 10% of the Galaxy for a stupid Golf Course!?"
- 01:13:13"First of all, it 12%" In one episode, Earth gorges on an entire planet full of fast food snacks, only to
- 01:13:19realise they are baby aliens capable of sentience. "Ooh there's one left!" "Mama"
- 01:13:26In the future, they have managed to abate global warming by dropping giant ice cubes into the sea, taken from Halley's Comet.
- 01:13:33"Of course, since the greenhouse gases are still building up, it takes more and more ice each time...
- 01:13:41...thus solving the problem once and for all." "But-" "Once and for all!"
- 01:13:46When the ice runs out, they blame the robots and try to kill them all but eventually solve the problem by letting out the robots'
- 01:13:51exhaust fumes to propel the Earth slightly further away from the Sun. In another famous episode, the
- 01:13:57planet is threatened by a giant ball of garbage that humanity launched into space in the 21st
- 01:14:02Century. They no longer produce garbage in the 31st Century because everything is recycled:
- 01:14:07"We recycle everything! Robots are made from old beer cans." "Yeah, and this beer can is made out of old robots!"
- 01:14:14But the old problem still comes back to haunt them because the garbage ball is returning. Fry
- 01:14:19teaches them the 21st Century way of producing garbage so they can create an even bigger ball
- 01:14:24to knock the old into the sun. Worrying about that garbage ball returning is a challenge for
- 01:14:29the 41st Century. The message is clear: society is pretty terrible at actually solving its problems
- 01:14:34and prefers to use Band-Aid solutions that may cause other problems, likely further into the
- 01:14:39future. Groening himself clearly articulated my philosophy on this:
- 01:14:55Oh sorry, not that quote. I meant this one:
- 01:15:04Fiction, especially science fiction, is important. Futurama shows the lack
- 01:15:09of imagination we have and how we seem to accept certain features of our world even when we think
- 01:15:13about the future. There are plentiful solutions to environmental problems and many of them will
- 01:15:18enhance our material standard of living, our health, our intelligence, and our general quality of life.
- 01:15:23But others will fail to change the world and may just kick the can down the road.
- 01:15:27Failing to imagine something fundamentally different is a trap that far too many fall into: whether
- 01:15:32fiction writers, conservatives, or economists. But I repeat myself. A lack of imagination means that
- 01:15:39we don't see the things that we take for granted. It's almost like the ideas themselves become the *air we breathe*.
- 01:15:50Huhhh!! That's the name of the video [Music]
- 01:15:58Thank you for watching Everybody. thanks so much to
- 01:16:00my patrons for supporting me, thank you very much to my editor Ben, and thank you to everybody Who
- 01:16:08provided quotes. this video touches on a lot of controversial topics that I haven't spoken about
- 01:16:14too much in the past: covid and climate change most notably, and I guess there'll be a lot of
- 01:16:19questions asked to me about like where I stand on all of the issues raised by this video, and I
- 01:16:25think it's really important for me to make it very clear just in case I don't get misrepresented, that
- 01:16:32actually I don't like Futrama anywhere near as much as I like The Simpsons. I- I just have to
- 01:16:38be honest with you, um I don't think it's as funny, uh I think it it started around the time that the
- 01:16:44Simpsons started to get worse, and I think it's about the quality of like late but not terrible
- 01:16:49Simpsons, uh and you know I'm just being honest now of course there are lots of positives about it:
- 01:16:55themes I discussed in this video, the memorable lines and memes that have come for it - come
- 01:17:02from it. And there are many of those, um and also the animation is amazing I think uh a lot of the
- 01:17:08serious episodes of Futurama I actually find I like more...but yeah I don't think it really holds a
- 01:17:14candle to Groening's earlier creation and uh for that reason and that reason alone we will be going back
- 01:17:19to Simpsons clips in the future, but you know maybe every so often I'll...I'll get a Futurama
- 01:17:26clip in from now on. And who knows? Maybe even a Disenchanted clip but you know, probably not. Bye!
- Futurama
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