00:00:00
bitcoin should reach $200,000 by end of
00:00:03
year i was wrong about Bitcoin in my
00:00:05
last Bitcoin prediction video I said I'd
00:00:08
sell my Bitcoin by the end of 2025 at
00:00:11
over
00:00:12
$200,000 but with Bitcoin falling below
00:00:15
80K and nowhere near my target yet I'm
00:00:18
changing my mind so here's what I expect
00:00:20
to happen through the end of the year
00:00:22
into 2026 and my updated Bitcoin exit
00:00:25
strategy now I want to kick us off by
00:00:28
breaking down my thesis on Bitcoin in
00:00:30
two areas first we'll talk about the
00:00:32
technicals aka Bitcoin's price action
00:00:35
and then we will talk about the
00:00:36
fundamentals which heavily involve
00:00:38
global liquidity M2 money supply and how
00:00:41
all of these impact Bitcoin's action
00:00:44
going to this year i believe Bitcoin is
00:00:46
near the bottom of this correction after
00:00:48
it has made its last low around 76,000
00:00:51
now it just needs time to consolidate
00:00:54
but do not rush into buy this dip just
00:00:57
yet i see this consolidation taking at
00:01:00
least 2 months at most 6 months and I'll
00:01:03
give you my reasons why welcome back to
00:01:04
the Virtual Bacon channel my name is
00:01:06
Dennis i'm a crypto angel investor in
00:01:08
over 100 crypto startups on this channel
00:01:10
I share views on market trends and
00:01:12
investing strategy to build wealth in
00:01:14
crypto although Bitcoin has dropped a
00:01:15
lot in the past 3 months it's still
00:01:17
holding above the key support levels by
00:01:19
moving average standards in this cycle
00:01:22
namely it's this blue average line which
00:01:24
is the 50Week simple moving average now
00:01:27
from past cycles Bitcoin usually
00:01:29
respected the 20week SMA or the 21week
00:01:33
EMA however this cycle Bitcoin has
00:01:35
turned quite a bit more aggressive when
00:01:37
it comes to corrections so the 50WE SMA
00:01:41
has acted as significant support for two
00:01:44
years already you see back here in 2023
00:01:46
it got close to this level but didn't
00:01:48
test it and here in last summer 2024 it
00:01:51
tested this average level twice and
00:01:54
bounced from it and now we are very
00:01:56
close to that level again which
00:01:57
currently sits at
00:01:59
76,800 so just by correction standards
00:02:02
we are still within the same percentage
00:02:05
of correction on Bitcoin's price chart
00:02:07
going back the last 2 years this also
00:02:09
makes 76,000 a key level that we ideally
00:02:13
want to see Bitcoin hold above which is
00:02:15
going to be my baseline for Bitcoin's
00:02:18
uptrend for the rest of this year i'm
00:02:19
going to dive deeper into this aspect in
00:02:22
a bit later now let's look at the daily
00:02:24
time frame which gives us more context
00:02:26
as to how long this choppy period can
00:02:28
last even though Bitcoin is still
00:02:29
holding above the long-term averages of
00:02:32
50week simple moving average the daily
00:02:34
charts are still seeing some more
00:02:36
consolidations to go namely each time
00:02:39
that Bitcoin has corrected below the 200
00:02:41
day simple moving average in the last
00:02:44
two years it took multiple months before
00:02:47
the short-term moving averages converged
00:02:49
and touched the long-term moving
00:02:51
averages which eventually led to a
00:02:53
breakout into a new trend so you see
00:02:55
back here in September 2023 and then
00:02:57
summer of 2024 all similar scenarios
00:03:00
first you have the short-term averages
00:03:02
leading when price is going up then once
00:03:04
the correction comes the short-term
00:03:06
average starts to drop whereas the
00:03:08
long-term moving average 200 day and 100
00:03:10
day start to catch up and eventually
00:03:12
these converge and even cross over
00:03:15
before the next uptrend can start at
00:03:18
this moment the moving averages are not
00:03:19
crossed over just yet and it will take a
00:03:21
couple more months for this
00:03:23
consolidation now when we're talking
00:03:24
about crossover there is one other key
00:03:26
indicator that a lot of people like to
00:03:29
talk about which is the death cross
00:03:30
that's potentially coming up soon and
00:03:32
that directly involves the 50-day and
00:03:35
the 200 day simple moving average which
00:03:37
are two of the four lines that we have
00:03:39
on the chart here so here they are
00:03:41
highlighted and the death cross signal
00:03:43
simply put is when the short-term
00:03:45
average the 50-day simple moving average
00:03:47
crosses below the 200 day long-term
00:03:50
moving average you see we had the last
00:03:52
death cross in August 2024 and now quite
00:03:55
close we are going to have this next
00:03:57
death cross happening now the name death
00:03:59
cross really sets the wrong tone for
00:04:02
what this indicator actually tells us
00:04:04
because more often than not especially
00:04:06
on Bitcoin this indicator actually leads
00:04:09
to price nearing its bottom if it's a
00:04:13
bull run correction it's near a local
00:04:14
bottom if it's a bare market then it's
00:04:16
near the bare market bottoms albeit a
00:04:19
bit longer however uh what the death
00:04:21
cross really is useful is telling us
00:04:23
that prices will tend to chop a bit more
00:04:25
around these bottom prices before a
00:04:27
golden cross happens and then uh you are
00:04:30
much safer to jump into the market again
00:04:32
so here we have Investopia really
00:04:34
summarizing this despite the dramatic
00:04:36
name the death cross has been followed
00:04:37
by above average short-term returns many
00:04:40
times since 1992 if you buy on the death
00:04:43
cross and this is because the rise of
00:04:45
the 50-day moving average above the 200
00:04:47
day moving average is known as the
00:04:49
golden cross and can signal the
00:04:51
exhaustion of downward market momentum
00:04:53
so effectively what the death cross
00:04:55
tells us is that there is a maximum of
00:04:58
downward market momentum or negative
00:05:00
sentiment if you will and once the
00:05:02
golden cross happens that is the
00:05:04
downward market momentum actually
00:05:06
shifting towards upward again now let's
00:05:08
apply this to Bitcoin's chart and when
00:05:11
you observe the last few death and
00:05:13
golden cross pairs you see how you can
00:05:16
trade this properly so here we have the
00:05:18
death cross happening on August 10th
00:05:19
2024 at 62,000 for Bitcoin and then the
00:05:23
golden cross happened on October 2024 so
00:05:26
2 and a half months later and Bitcoin
00:05:28
was trading at 67,000 just 10% higher
00:05:31
but if you simply waited when the death
00:05:34
cross happened for two more months you
00:05:36
would have only missed out 10% gains but
00:05:39
avoided trading both of these bigger
00:05:41
corrections coming up which didn't mean
00:05:44
lower prices on a long-term time frame
00:05:47
but it would have helped you to stay out
00:05:49
of this choppy market for two more
00:05:50
months similar back here in September
00:05:52
2023 when we had the last last death
00:05:55
cross price was trading at 27,000 if you
00:05:58
just waited on the death cross and you
00:06:00
bought back in or took on more exposure
00:06:02
once the golden cross happened it would
00:06:04
have been a bit later but still it would
00:06:06
have been good period to avoid the
00:06:08
market chop and this would have how much
00:06:10
of a upside here you missed out on 20%
00:06:13
of the initial upside but this was
00:06:15
clearly the start of the new uptrend and
00:06:17
then if we look at 2021 and 2022 you
00:06:19
start to see how this strategy really
00:06:22
works in a potential bare market in the
00:06:24
first major correction in June of 2021
00:06:27
if you waited on the death cross and
00:06:29
then you put back your exposure into
00:06:32
Bitcoin by the next golden cross you
00:06:34
would have waited 3 months and you would
00:06:37
have missed out the initial gains of
00:06:39
Bitcoin from 36,000 to 45,000 not the
00:06:43
end of the world but you would have
00:06:45
still caught the rest of this move now
00:06:47
some people just want to take this to
00:06:50
the next level and say I'm going to buy
00:06:51
on the death cross sure most of the time
00:06:54
this works but just in case this is a
00:06:56
bare market or the start of a bare
00:06:58
market as triggered by the death cross
00:07:00
less often than not but sometimes it is
00:07:02
the case such as in January of 2022 then
00:07:06
if you had bought after death cross you
00:07:09
would have not been able to get the
00:07:10
golden cross signal until over one year
00:07:13
later so this would have been a
00:07:15
downtrend that you caught yourself in if
00:07:17
you follow this signal throughout
00:07:18
Bitcoin's history you start to see the
00:07:20
same pattern repeat over and over again
00:07:22
in a bull market correction if you
00:07:24
simply stay patient and wait for the
00:07:26
death cross to turn back into the golden
00:07:28
cross most of the time you get in around
00:07:30
the same price levels you maybe miss out
00:07:33
10 to 20% of the initial move but you
00:07:36
can be sure that a new uptrend is
00:07:38
starting but by staying patient in the
00:07:40
death cross it helps you avoid the
00:07:42
potential of being trapped in the start
00:07:44
of a bare market and it helps you to
00:07:47
avoid a choppy period between the death
00:07:49
cross and the golden cross so that
00:07:51
brings us to present day once this death
00:07:54
cross signal actually fires chances are
00:07:57
we are going to be near the bottom
00:07:59
prices for Bitcoin which was 76,000 this
00:08:03
does fit our previous outlook on
00:08:05
Bitcoin's long-term moving average
00:08:07
support at 76,000 the 50WE SMA so
00:08:11
chances are we are near the bottom
00:08:13
prices but the time frame might still be
00:08:16
two to three months out down the line
00:08:18
before we get the next golden cross
00:08:20
leading to the new uptrend starting in
00:08:23
my opinion the best course of action is
00:08:25
to wait for this golden cross to also
00:08:28
happen in conjunction with the desk
00:08:30
cross this can give you a much clearer
00:08:32
signal that the downtrend is over and
00:08:34
the new uptrend is starting and in fact
00:08:36
this dip was actually just a bull market
00:08:39
correction instead of the start of a
00:08:41
bare market all of that goes to say the
00:08:43
chances of Bitcoin bottoming out at
00:08:45
76,000 is high but it's not for sure and
00:08:49
the chance of us having a more choppy
00:08:50
period for 2 to 3 months at least after
00:08:53
a death cross is very high so there's no
00:08:55
need to rush in to buy this falling
00:08:57
knife combining all of the TA here's my
00:09:00
bottom line for Bitcoin's price action
00:09:01
currently i expect Bitcoin to reach new
00:09:04
highs this year however I really want to
00:09:06
see Bitcoin hold above the 50week simple
00:09:09
moving average this blue average line
00:09:11
which currently sits at 76,000 as long
00:09:14
as the 76K level holds this simply looks
00:09:17
like Bitcoin's typical price correction
00:09:20
throughout this cycle and we would still
00:09:22
have the higher highs and higher low
00:09:24
structure with the previous high at
00:09:27
108,000 the next low at 76,000 which is
00:09:32
trading above the previous high at
00:09:34
73,000 now if Bitcoin touches the 76K
00:09:38
level and even wicks below it if there's
00:09:41
some sort of significant liquidity event
00:09:43
that causes major panic in the markets
00:09:46
we need to watch the daily candle closes
00:09:49
and especially the weekly candle to not
00:09:51
have it close below 76K worse comes to
00:09:54
worse I would like to see a similar
00:09:56
candle formation like we had in the week
00:09:59
of August 5th 2024 where Bitcoin wicked
00:10:03
below 50K but quickly closed back above
00:10:06
it i don't want to see any weekly candle
00:10:08
closes below 76,000 okay moving on from
00:10:12
the technicals let's talk about the
00:10:14
fundamentals as I have covered already
00:10:17
there is currently an air pocket of
00:10:19
lower global liquidity to last for the
00:10:21
next 2 to 6 months for a package of
00:10:24
reasons first in April we have the tax
00:10:27
deadline which typically acts as sell
00:10:29
pressure for the stock market and also
00:10:31
crypto as investors need to take profit
00:10:34
this month to sell and pay taxes there
00:10:36
is also the US debt ceiling
00:10:39
reinstatement that's coming up to be due
00:10:41
in the next couple months and this will
00:10:43
require significant liquidity to support
00:10:45
it and make sure this event is carried
00:10:48
out smoothly we have covered this
00:10:50
situation before already namely this
00:10:52
will require the Fed and the US Treasury
00:10:54
to drain its TGA or the Treasury General
00:10:57
account and we are already seeing that
00:10:59
happening where over the past month and
00:11:02
a half the TGA account has drained from
00:11:04
$820 billion now to 360 billion it's
00:11:09
important to note that when the TGA is
00:11:11
going down this is actually liquidity
00:11:12
positive as this is effectively the
00:11:15
Treasury and the Fed spending their
00:11:17
checking account to support the markets
00:11:20
but once this debt sealing situation is
00:11:22
resolved the TGA A account actually
00:11:25
needs to be refilled after which leads
00:11:27
to the reverse situation where liquidity
00:11:30
will shrink so once you see the US
00:11:32
government coming out and announcing
00:11:34
that the US debt ceiling has been raised
00:11:36
again chances are we'll see the TGA
00:11:39
account start to rise which is actually
00:11:40
liquidity negative and this will shrink
00:11:43
global liquidity further maybe for a
00:11:45
couple more months of course there are
00:11:46
currently other events driving fearful
00:11:48
sentiments such as Trump's tariff that's
00:11:51
being shifted in a extremely bipolar way
00:11:54
day in and out and around Liberation Day
00:11:56
there's a lot of speculation around this
00:11:58
again I have covered my stance on
00:11:59
Trump's tariffs already in these two
00:12:01
previous videos and TLDDR there is that
00:12:04
the tariffs are really a negotiating
00:12:05
tool that Trump uses and it's really
00:12:08
just noise and we should ignore them
00:12:10
look out 6 to 12 months down the line
00:12:12
nobody is going to be talking about
00:12:14
tariffs anymore this isn't a permanent
00:12:16
situation now around the Federal Reserve
00:12:19
and what they are doing at each FOMC I
00:12:21
have covered this topic extensively in
00:12:23
summary the US Fed has not been able to
00:12:27
turn on the money printer and support
00:12:29
the markets by reintroducing
00:12:30
quantitative easing and they still have
00:12:33
kept interest rates at quite a high
00:12:34
level and at best we can have three
00:12:37
interest rate cuts this year most likely
00:12:39
we're only going to get two you can
00:12:41
check out my previous video diving deep
00:12:43
into this topic on how the Fed can
00:12:45
potentially trigger a crypto bull run by
00:12:47
Q4 of this year although the Fed is
00:12:50
starting to slow the pace of
00:12:51
quantitative tightening it is not fully
00:12:54
pivoted to quantitative easing again
00:12:56
they have hinted at quantitative
00:12:58
tightening stopping by mid 2025 but the
00:13:01
reintroduction of quantitative easing is
00:13:03
not going to be easy the Federal Reserve
00:13:05
Chair Jerome Powell has publicly stated
00:13:07
that they cannot do public quantitative
00:13:10
easing aka using printed money to
00:13:13
support the markets until interest rates
00:13:15
are at zero which is an impossible task
00:13:18
for right now this is why macro analysts
00:13:20
are projecting a high chance of a
00:13:22
recession from now until September
00:13:25
October of this year with as high as 61%
00:13:28
chance of a recession being announced so
00:13:30
two ways this can happen either the Fed
00:13:33
eases up by the summer months as they
00:13:35
have hinted or something actually breaks
00:13:37
in the system which will force the Fed
00:13:39
to act and change their words but
00:13:41
actually give them an excuse to make
00:13:43
this full pivot either way we still need
00:13:45
to survive this period from now until
00:13:48
September October months where the
00:13:50
recession risk are significantly lowered
00:13:53
so TLDDR on liquidity short-term
00:13:55
uncertainty and chop and potentially
00:13:58
extreme pain lasting quite short with a
00:14:01
V-shaped recovery and all of this will
00:14:04
happen before Q4 because that's a hard
00:14:06
deadline that the US Treasury and the US
00:14:09
financial banking system cannot afford
00:14:11
to extend much longer now there are some
00:14:13
new research that I have found to be
00:14:15
very interesting and this comes from
00:14:17
Arthur Hayes with a recent interview
00:14:20
that he did on Kyle's channel and TLDDR
00:14:23
here arthur Hayes dove into the Federal
00:14:26
Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's statements
00:14:28
on the Q&A session and when the
00:14:31
journalists asked Powell why they are
00:14:34
still keeping the same runoff rate for
00:14:36
mortgage back securities at $35 billion
00:14:40
of decrease per month and only slowing
00:14:44
the decrease of Treasury securities from
00:14:47
the Fed's balance sheet jerome Powell
00:14:49
stated that they want the MBS to roll
00:14:52
off their balance sheet and it's
00:14:54
possible that even when the Fed reaches
00:14:56
the point of wanting to keep its
00:14:58
holdings steady aka completely stopping
00:15:01
QT it will still allow mortgage bonds to
00:15:05
expire and not be replaced says Pal so
00:15:08
how does this even work this seems kind
00:15:10
of contradictory how can they stomp QT
00:15:13
and have the balance sheet run flat but
00:15:16
still keep selling mortgage back
00:15:18
securities this is effectively stealth
00:15:20
QE that we have been trying to find out
00:15:23
for a while instead of openly announcing
00:15:25
QE and increasing the Federal Reserve's
00:15:27
balance sheet what Drum Pow plans to do
00:15:30
is to stop QT aka let the balance sheet
00:15:34
run flat and at the same time keep
00:15:36
selling the mortgage back security parts
00:15:39
of the Fed's balance sheet and this will
00:15:42
allow them to increase in the same
00:15:44
amount the Treasury securities that they
00:15:47
hold in the Federal Reserve's balance
00:15:48
sheet if they do this it will
00:15:50
effectively allow them to directly
00:15:52
inject liquidity into the treasury
00:15:54
securities market but not actually do QE
00:15:58
by definition instead they are simply
00:16:00
shifting the holdings in the balance
00:16:01
sheet from mortgage back securities to
00:16:03
treasury securities this is actually
00:16:05
very positive and could potentially
00:16:07
start by mid 2025 once they completely
00:16:10
pause QT okay so what does the timeline
00:16:12
look like well if they do this pause on
00:16:15
QT and make the shift to specifically
00:16:18
support Treasury securities this could
00:16:20
happen in as close as 2 months because
00:16:22
that's mid 2025 and we need to see at
00:16:25
least two more FOMC meetings which will
00:16:27
take more than two months where the Fed
00:16:29
needs to come out and say that they have
00:16:31
slowed the pace of QT and then at the
00:16:33
next FOMC meeting maybe they announce
00:16:35
the pause and then it will take at least
00:16:37
one more month for them to actually make
00:16:39
this change and start pausing the QT so
00:16:43
this gives us at least two more months
00:16:45
of chop for liquidity conditions the
00:16:47
worst condition is obviously six more
00:16:49
months of chop leading us into Q4 by
00:16:52
October of this year but if the Fed
00:16:54
doesn't do anything most likely we will
00:16:56
have something in the financial system
00:16:58
break causing a credit event and by then
00:17:00
they will have to act anyways so just
00:17:02
hang in there liquidity will come lastly
00:17:05
I want to address a specific confusion
00:17:07
around global liquidity versus M2 money
00:17:10
supply and their impacts on Bitcoin's
00:17:12
price i've just tweeted about this two
00:17:14
days ago sorry to break it to you but M2
00:17:16
money supply only dropped for the first
00:17:18
time postcoid before that there is
00:17:20
literally no signal whatsoever related
00:17:22
to crypto cycles i was very confused
00:17:25
because a lot of people did not agree
00:17:27
with this and they had different charts
00:17:28
than the one I'm looking at so I dug a
00:17:31
bit deeper and actually how M2 money
00:17:33
supply is calculated is actually very
00:17:36
different based on which website or
00:17:38
tracker you follow here for example we
00:17:40
have Bitcoin magazine pro used to be
00:17:42
called look into Bitcoin and their
00:17:44
calculation of M2 is actually the same
00:17:48
as global liquidity so take a look down
00:17:50
here for their methodology global M2 is
00:17:54
calculated at this tracker by taking
00:17:57
into account not only the M2 money
00:17:59
supply but also the Federal Reserve's
00:18:01
liabilities and other Federal Reserve
00:18:04
banks and overnight reverse repo
00:18:06
purchase agreements so not only are they
00:18:08
using the readily available cash supply
00:18:11
but also the Federal Reserve's balance
00:18:13
sheet and also central bank's balance
00:18:15
sheet which effectively is QTQE monetary
00:18:18
policy however when you compare this
00:18:20
with other M2 liquidity supplies this
00:18:25
one for example on BGO metrics this only
00:18:28
takes into account the money supply M2
00:18:31
supply the official number not global
00:18:34
liquidity or Fed's balance sheet so why
00:18:36
is this important i tweeted about this
00:18:38
earlier today again about this
00:18:40
inconsistency and how you actually use
00:18:43
this correctly m2 money supply is a
00:18:45
subset of global liquidity so global
00:18:47
liquidity equals to the M2 money supply
00:18:50
plus Federal Reserve's balance sheet and
00:18:52
other central banks balance sheet and
00:18:55
things that the Fed can do to inject
00:18:56
more liquidity such as the TGA Treasury
00:18:59
General account which we looked at
00:19:00
earlier and the reverse repo purchase
00:19:02
agreement which has been completely
00:19:04
drained these are not how much money is
00:19:07
being printed rather how much assets and
00:19:09
liabilities that the central banks are
00:19:11
putting into their balance sheet so if
00:19:13
you are looking to track Bitcoin's
00:19:15
performance you simply need to look at
00:19:17
M2 money supply and if it's growing
00:19:19
usually this correlates with Bitcoin's
00:19:22
price appreciation you can see right
00:19:24
here when the M2 money supply shrinks
00:19:26
Bitcoin's price goes down when M2 money
00:19:28
supply goes up Bitcoin goes up the two
00:19:30
are heavily correlated and right now the
00:19:33
M2 money supply has increased from
00:19:36
February 3rd until today whereas
00:19:37
Bitcoin's price has lagged behind a bit
00:19:40
this is the signal that a lot of people
00:19:41
are saying Bitcoin's price should catch
00:19:43
up soon this is a real signal however if
00:19:46
you're using this same M2 money supply
00:19:49
metric to calculate alcoins this doesn't
00:19:51
work for alcoins you need to look at the
00:19:54
full picture of global liquidity and
00:19:56
especially important is the central bank
00:19:59
balance sheet which actually correlates
00:20:01
to alcoins price appreciation against
00:20:04
Bitcoin to visualize this we can go on
00:20:06
trading view and I use this indicator
00:20:08
called global liquidity index which
00:20:12
gives us both pictures in the same data
00:20:15
so right here you have the global
00:20:17
liquidity index and what you can include
00:20:19
in this metric so first I'm only going
00:20:21
to check the M2 money supply
00:20:23
calculations these last five and you see
00:20:26
when you compare that with the chart of
00:20:28
Bitcoin these two are heavily correlated
00:20:30
over the long term even over entirety of
00:20:32
Bitcoin's existence this works as a
00:20:35
signal but if you compare this signal
00:20:37
with things like Ethereum to BTC ratio
00:20:40
you see there is no signal here
00:20:42
whatsoever because comparing Alcoin's
00:20:45
performance against this it just looks
00:20:46
like the M2 is constantly going up and
00:20:48
you can do the same against Salana even
00:20:51
though Salana sometimes goes up there is
00:20:53
no clear correlation you can compare
00:20:55
this with Bitcoin dominance you see the
00:20:56
two here are diverging all the time and
00:20:59
here it is again comparing the M2 money
00:21:02
supply alone against alcoin performance
00:21:05
so total 2 minus USDT divided by Bitcoin
00:21:08
you see again no correlation here but if
00:21:10
we check the other half of the global
00:21:12
liquidity index what does it give us so
00:21:15
here we have M2 money supply plus all of
00:21:17
the central bank's balance sheet the
00:21:20
treasury general account and all the
00:21:21
other liquidity metrics not just how
00:21:23
much money there is in the supply then
00:21:25
there starts to have a bit of
00:21:28
correlation but not direct because these
00:21:31
two have been diverging between alcoin's
00:21:33
performance versus total liquidity total
00:21:35
global liquidity since December 2022 so
00:21:38
sometimes they converge sometimes they
00:21:40
diverge and this is where it gets really
00:21:43
interesting and you need to make this
00:21:44
big distinction if you uncheck M2 money
00:21:48
supply and you only look at what the
00:21:50
Federal Reserve and other central banks
00:21:52
are putting in their balance sheet you
00:21:53
start to see that these two are actually
00:21:55
correlated so in the 2017 to 2019 cycle
00:21:59
the two are closely correlated in the
00:22:01
2020 to 2022 bull market and the present
00:22:04
day alcoin bare market that we have had
00:22:06
for over 2 years these two are also
00:22:08
heavily correlated the only outlier here
00:22:11
is the COVID crash that we had in
00:22:13
January 2021 so this is why it's so
00:22:16
important to get this right understand
00:22:19
what metric you are looking at on your
00:22:22
tracker are you looking at M2 money
00:22:25
supply where it takes into account the
00:22:27
top four central banks and other
00:22:29
countries M2 basically how much money
00:22:31
they have printed overall if you are
00:22:32
looking at this this is a signal for
00:22:35
Bitcoin and Bitcoin alone now if you're
00:22:37
looking at Ethereum's performance
00:22:39
Solana's performance any other alcoin or
00:22:42
overall alcoin season performance you
00:22:44
cannot look at M2 money supply alone you
00:22:46
need to look at the other side of the
00:22:48
equation which is the Federal Reserve
00:22:50
other central banks liquidity conditions
00:22:53
this is not the money supply the central
00:22:55
bank liquidity part of this whole
00:22:57
equation is what matters for the altcoin
00:23:00
cycles and this is why depending on what
00:23:02
you're looking at you may be right in
00:23:04
tracking M2 but other times you are
00:23:07
completely wrong in using M2 for
00:23:09
altcoins so the next time you hear about
00:23:11
global liquidity mixed in conjunction
00:23:14
with M2 money supply just know that
00:23:16
there's a big diff difference between
00:23:17
the two when it comes to Bitcoin cycles
00:23:19
versus altcoin cycles this is great news
00:23:22
for Bitcoin maxis specifically as M2
00:23:25
money supply continues to grow because
00:23:27
there's always more money printing
00:23:29
Bitcoin just continues to go up this is
00:23:31
definitely true however you can't say
00:23:33
the same for altcoins and altcoin season
00:23:36
this newly printed money only matters
00:23:38
and flows into altcoin prices when the
00:23:41
global liquidity conditions improve
00:23:43
which involves central banks actually
00:23:45
putting that newly printed money into
00:23:47
their balance sheet and supporting
00:23:49
treasuries and other assets so as long
00:23:51
as the Federal Reserve is still
00:23:52
shrinking its balance sheet you see that
00:23:54
global liquidity will also continues to
00:23:56
drop so even though more and more money
00:23:58
is being printed and increasing the M2
00:24:00
money supply that's not flowing into the
00:24:02
Fed's balance sheet and thus not going
00:24:05
into risk on assets like altcoins yet
00:24:07
okay bringing back all to the Bitcoin
00:24:10
price action we see right now even if
00:24:12
global liquidity remains tight where the
00:24:14
Fed does not do QE just yet Bitcoin can
00:24:18
still continue to chug along as long as
00:24:20
new money is being printed this will
00:24:22
show up in the M2 money supply
00:24:25
calculations that you can find
00:24:26
everywhere on the internet if you are a
00:24:29
Bitcoin maxi you don't need to worry
00:24:30
about QE and QT as much the only added
00:24:34
benefit here is that when QE restarts
00:24:36
again this only means the M2 money
00:24:38
supply will increase even faster as more
00:24:41
money is print being printed at a faster
00:24:43
pace and thus Bitcoin will simply rise
00:24:46
faster undoubtedly at the end of the day
00:24:48
Bitcoin is still in an uptrend because
00:24:50
of more money printing it's an easy hold
00:24:53
you can't say the same for other
00:24:54
altcoins but if you're holding Bitcoin
00:24:56
nob brainer right now finally let me
00:24:58
summarize my current plan when it comes
00:25:00
to price and timeline target for Bitcoin
00:25:03
based on all the new information we have
00:25:06
buying and holding Bitcoin right now is
00:25:08
a no-brainer anywhere below 85K to 76K
00:25:12
is all a great stacking area we don't
00:25:14
want 76K to break and especially on the
00:25:17
weekly time frame even if we get a wick
00:25:20
below we don't want to see a price
00:25:21
candle close below 76K we could have a
00:25:24
few more months of chop on Bitcoin but I
00:25:26
don't want to see lower prices anymore i
00:25:28
think we are close to the bottom at 76
00:25:31
now when it comes to time targets this
00:25:33
will have to be adjusted if you guys
00:25:35
have been following the channel for a
00:25:36
while you know that I have made multiple
00:25:38
bull market plan videos for Bitcoin
00:25:40
specifically over the past 2 years so I
00:25:43
expected Bitcoin to hit $200,000 at
00:25:45
least by the end of this cycle and
00:25:47
initially in 2023 I expected this target
00:25:50
to be hit by the end of 2025 however as
00:25:53
liquidity has continued to stay tight
00:25:55
way past my expectations of the Fed's
00:25:58
pivot to quantitative easing we have to
00:26:01
be prepared for a longer cycle i
00:26:03
expected QE to start in January 2025
00:26:06
leading to a blowoff top in Bitcoin by
00:26:09
mid 2025 already but we are not getting
00:26:12
QE until summer 2025 maybe even Q4 of
00:26:16
this year that means my exit time range
00:26:18
will need to be pushed back into mid
00:26:20
2026 to account for at least six months
00:26:23
of liquidity injection after QE starts
00:26:26
so with this new timeline I don't see
00:26:29
Bitcoin reaching 200K by the end of this
00:26:31
year however I still firmly believe it
00:26:34
will reach more than 200K by the end of
00:26:37
this cycle in fact I think this could
00:26:39
cause Bitcoin to reach higher than 200K
00:26:42
maybe even 300K by mid 2026 because it
00:26:46
has over a year to grow from now until
00:26:49
then taking into account that global
00:26:51
liquidity is still tight and the real
00:26:54
excitement in the market hasn't even
00:26:55
come yet this could actually be bullish
00:26:58
for Bitcoin's upside potential it's just
00:27:01
that it will take longer to play out now
00:27:03
I'm not ready to give an updated higher
00:27:05
target just yet but this honestly looks
00:27:07
good for Bitcoin bulls to simply relax
00:27:10
and enjoy more upside for longer here
00:27:13
are my three bull market exit conditions
00:27:15
that I have covered in November 2023 so
00:27:18
the first one here is the price trigger
00:27:19
for Bitcoin to hit at least 200K i still
00:27:22
stand fully by this just not by the end
00:27:24
of this year but maybe this needs to be
00:27:26
adjusted higher as well the number two
00:27:28
trigger needs to be changed i don't see
00:27:30
it happening in the end of 2025 anymore
00:27:33
i don't think that's going to be the end
00:27:35
of the liquidity cycle at least we are
00:27:37
extending into 2026 by mid 2026 and the
00:27:40
third trigger here is for Bitcoin to
00:27:42
break the long-term trend usually this
00:27:45
is the 200 day exponential moving
00:27:47
average or the 21week exponential moving
00:27:50
average now something interesting here
00:27:51
is that this trigger also needs to be
00:27:53
changed because the 21week EMA no longer
00:27:56
acts as the bull and bear trigger point
00:27:59
anymore since March 2023 Bitcoin has
00:28:01
dropped below the 21week exponential
00:28:04
moving average three times already in
00:28:07
August 2023 summer 2024 and now again
00:28:10
the last two times this happened Bitcoin
00:28:12
bounced back above essentially what's
00:28:14
happening is that Bitcoin is actually
00:28:16
getting more volatile this cycle where
00:28:18
its corrections are going as far as the
00:28:21
50week simple moving average instead of
00:28:24
the 21week EMA or 20WE SMA so that's why
00:28:27
I also need to adjust the third trend
00:28:30
trigger to account for current Bitcoin
00:28:32
price movements in this cycle we only
00:28:34
want to exit Bitcoin if it breaks below
00:28:37
the 50week simple moving average for
00:28:40
this cycle unlike before where it
00:28:42
usually only drops to the 21week
00:28:44
exponential moving average so TLDDR here
00:28:47
is I plan to hold Bitcoin for longer
00:28:49
this cycle into 2026 i expect Bitcoin to
00:28:52
hit at least 200K most likely going to
00:28:55
be a higher target because we're having
00:28:57
a longer cycle and we got to be prepared
00:29:00
for potentially more draw downs this
00:29:02
cycle as Bitcoin has turned more
00:29:03
volatile and it can visit as low as the
00:29:06
50we simple moving average and still be
00:29:09
considered in an uptrend in a bull
00:29:11
market these are the direct changes that
00:29:13
I'm following in my Bitcoin investment
00:29:15
strategy for this cycle okay that's it
00:29:17
for this video if you like this content
00:29:19
subscribe to the channel and let's
00:29:20
revisit my analysis by Q4 to see if
00:29:24
Bitcoin has actually made new highs and
00:29:26
if the liquidity conditions actually
00:29:28
improves and for anyone that doesn't
00:29:30
believe in Bitcoin anymore share this
00:29:31
video with them share it with the
00:29:33
skeptics and let's see if I'm right and
00:29:35
Bitcoin actually has an extended cycle
00:29:37
also follow me on X at virtualbacon0X
00:29:40
for quick alpha when I'm doing research
00:29:42
for these videos like the research that
00:29:44
I have just done 2 hours ago diving into
00:29:47
why M2 money supply is different from
00:29:50
global liquidity causing all the
00:29:51
confusion where people are not bullish
00:29:54
at the right reasons thank you for
00:29:56
watching and I will see you on the next
