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hi I'm Sam Hawley coming to you from
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gadigal Land This is ABC News Daily
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[Music]
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we've suffered through devastating
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bushfires and floods but while we've
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been bearing the brunt of climate change
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Australia hasn't even had a climate
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policy until this week with the greens
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striking a deal with the Albanese
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government on a bill that's meant to
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force the big polluters to slash
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emissions today climate scientist Frank
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yotso on how it will work and why it
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shouldn't mean consumers will pay more
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[Music]
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there will be in law for the first time
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in this country a limit on the amount of
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pollution that these corporations
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including the coal and gas corporations
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can pollute after a wasted decade under
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the Coalition today is a very good day
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indeed
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a great day for our environment for jobs
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and for the economy Frank yachtso we've
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traveled a very long way to get to this
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point where we actually have a climate
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policy it's something that politicians
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have tried to achieve isn't it for a
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very long time or indeed it is and we
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have come a very long way on this of
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course we did have a climate policy in
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Australia in the uh in a period between
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2012 and 2014 quite comprehensive in
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fact but of course that did not last
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politically today the tax that you voted
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to get rid of is finally gone a useless
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destructive tax which damage jobs which
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hurt families cost of living and which
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didn't I guess we're slowly getting back
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to a point where we're reintroducing
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effective climate policy federally in
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Australia so it's a pretty big moment
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isn't it this has happened because
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because the grains have jumped on board
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Adam bant was adamant for a long time
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that he wouldn't support this unless
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there was a guarantee that there were no
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new coal and gas projects in this
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country we want to see climate action
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but this key question of new colon gas
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mines is proving to be a sticking point
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and again I'll come back to the point
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it's just or is it a deal breaker for
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you would you actually stand on the side
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with the Coalition and vote this down
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well the question is why is Labor
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prepared to let this whole thing fall
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over
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I lost that because he argued Adam band
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that that would actually push our
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emissions up not bring them down well
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yes I mean uh a new industrial project
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of any kind using conventional
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technologies will tend to put uh push
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emissions up and new coal oil and gas
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projects almost always result in some
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greenhouse gas emissions within
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Australia of course the larger much much
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larger part of emissions that occur
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through new fossil fuel projects okay
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elsewhere the East Coast fossil fuel is
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for export as the majority of Australian
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fossil fuel production is of course and
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so that's where it gets really
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complicated and that's the point about
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most climate policy actually applying to
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emissions within one country and not
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applying to emissions that are inherent
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in fossil fuels that are produced for
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export
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now the greens they've struck a deal and
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I I want to unpack the details of that
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deal with you in just a moment and what
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that does mean for emissions but briefly
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we've got to explain again or remind me
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about the government's Safeguard
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mechanism what it originally hoped for
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it's that term the Safeguard mechanism I
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think that turns people off but just
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explain to me what it set out to do what
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the government hopes to do with that yes
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and the government will get pretty much
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exactly what it's set out to do with
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that mechanism the opportunity before
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the parliament over the coming weeks is
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either to seize the opportunity to
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reduce emissions by 205 million tons or
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to squander it that's what the
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parliament has Safeguard mechanism
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covers the uh the largest emitting
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facilities in Australia you've got the
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coal mines oil and gas industry cement
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glass steel other other types of of
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heavy industry production and they will
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have a carbon trading scheme within that
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sector different Industries 215
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different facilities 84 of which are you
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know fossil fuel facilities but many are
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different types of facilities with
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varying degrees of capability at the
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moment to reduce their Emissions on site
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take cement for example it's complicated
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and difficult inherently they will be
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required to become five percent more
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emissions effective or you know reduce
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the amount of emissions produced per
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unit or output by five percent per year
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that's pretty steep now all of these
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companies are allowed to trade with each
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other so but also they're doing better
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we'll be able to sell credits to those
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that don't do as well and it's a
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financial transaction of course and out
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of that arises a very direct Financial
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incentives to reduce emissions by as
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much as you can or in fact A reduced
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emissions by more wouldn't you require
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to and sell the the Surplus credits to
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others and that's precisely what you're
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getting under Ambitions training
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so it's a form of emissions trading
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where government doesn't take any money
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foreign
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Federal government's signature climate
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policy is set to pass through the
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parliament with the support of the
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greens the bill which reforms what's
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known as the Safeguard mechanism let's
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have a look now Frank at what the greens
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have managed to change you say it's
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limited but what have they managed to
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change in this safeguarding mechanism so
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the deal with the greens is that total
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emissions under the industry scheme
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shouldn't rise and in fact need to fall
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over time
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irrespective of the link to the credit
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market and so it will effectively limit
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the extent to which new heavily emitting
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industrial
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projects will be able to come into that
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mechanism
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so what's agreed is the intent to create
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a hard limit of emissions but to leave
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it open just exactly how that will be
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achieved if and when it comes to the
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point where where something needs to be
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changed
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okay so just so I've got this straight
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Frank because it can get confusing it's
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pretty complicated but under Labor's
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initial plan new coal and gas projects
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could open without restrictions because
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they could buy offsets or carbon credits
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but now with this greens deal they will
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face a hard cap on the amount of
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emissions that they produce yes that's
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right what's the limit on coal and gas
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expansion in this country Adam band says
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this is a huge win for the greens
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because even though it won't end new
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coal and gas projects He says it will
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make about half of them unviable on our
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initial calculations
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this means that the equivalent emissions
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from about half of those 116 projects is
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prevented that means about half of those
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116 projects won't be able to go so how
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many gas and coal projects won't go
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ahead in your view look I think it's
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really difficult to make definitive
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statements about these things and of
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course any of the political players will
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be claiming a huge win out of this I
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think that's to be expected there is of
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course a list of of planned or
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anticipated or possible future coal oil
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and gas projects that list keeps getting
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expanded but uh you know the the
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historical experience is that only a
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fraction of a small fraction of that
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long list ever comes to fruition there
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will be some that that will be pushed to
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completion but certainly not all of
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those projects on the list and so any
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claim as to how many projects or how
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many million tons of fossil fuel etc etc
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will be prevented through the Safeguard
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deal and also need to be seen with a big
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grain of salt in that light well it has
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the opinion position really worried
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Peter Dutton and Ted O'Brien the
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opposition's climate and energy
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spokesman say that it will lead to
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higher prices for consumers economy it
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will make the Australian economy weaker
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and the Australian people poorer they'll
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be seeing higher prices because of the
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plan that has been announced today
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Anthony Albanese of course says that's
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totally untrue so Frank tell me who is
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right on that one yeah so first of all
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the Safeguard mechanism is designed
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principally as a revenue neutral
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mechanism and so it's really industrial
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players buying and selling credits from
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each other and spending some amount of
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money on improving their operations to
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be more Mission sufficient right and so
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in terms of the overall cost impost on
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Australian industry that would overall
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be really quite low
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and you know the best measure you have
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of that is that the major industry
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associations are very clearly in favor
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of the policy so it can't be that bad
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can't in terms of cost impost most of
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this is for export of course in any case
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and here it's just a question of the
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amount amount of profit that companies
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are able to make the Australian
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Safeguard mechanism will not make a a
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palpable difference to call prices uh or
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to gas prices these things are
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fundamentally determined in
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international markets and what we do in
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Australia by way of climate policy will
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really not want to need it very much at
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all on fossil fuel prices and so uh any
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any fear in that regard is really not
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well placed all right so Frank the
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greens didn't get a blanket ban on new
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coal and gas which is what they
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initially wanted but we can see there
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are growing calls for that from the
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International Energy agency from the UN
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Secretary General they're saying if we
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want to prevent the world warming by
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more than 1.5 degrees we need oecd
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countries like Australia to stop
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developing these new projects
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no new hole and the phasing out of call
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by 2030 in oecd countries and 2040 in
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all other countries so I think the big
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question here is will this number one
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actually help us meet our Target of 43
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reduction by 2030 will that mean we'll
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meet it and will it prevent warming from
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exceeding 1.5 degrees two pretty big
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questions yeah so first of all
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domestically well absolutely a safeguard
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mechanism will help achieve the 43
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domestic emissions reduction Target
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that's what it's designed to do but it
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won't guarantee it because it covers
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only uh you know quarters of Australian
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emissions and so a lot more will need to
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be done in electricity and transport in
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agriculture in the building sector and
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so forth
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now the bigger question uh Global 1.5
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degrees and so forth and it's absolutely
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correct if we were to keep low
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temperature rise to 1.5 degrees it would
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mean that there's really no room for any
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expansion of uh coal oil and gas
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globally anywhere not just the developed
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country issue it's an issue for everyone
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so yeah if the world took 1.5 degrees
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seriously then we would not see any new
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fossil fuel projects and the fact that
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we are still seeing new fossil fuel
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projects tells you something about how
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COC the world is taking 1.5
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humanity is on thin ice and that ice is
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melting fast
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the rate of temperature rise in the last
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half century is the highest in 2000
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years
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concentrations of carbon dioxide are at
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their highest in at least 2 million
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years the climate Time Bomb is ticking
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Dr Frank yotso is an expert in
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environmental and climate change
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economics and a lead author of the un's
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latest climate change report
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government hopes to have the Safeguard
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mechanism passed through the parliament
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this week
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this episode was produced by Flint
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duxfield Chris stengate who also did the
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mix our supervising producer is Stephen
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Smiley I'm Sam Hawley thanks for
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listening
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[Music]
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foreign
