Stellantis, VOW, Mercedes, BMW Are Cheap! Possible 2X!

00:12:02
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GgYCL7URk5I

Summary

TLDRLe azioni delle case automobilistiche europee stanno crollando, con molte aziende che mostrano rapporti P/E inferiori a cinque, suggerendo potenziali investimenti di valore. Tuttavia, nonostante gli alti rendimenti dei dividendi e P/E apparentemente attraenti, le condizioni di mercato rimangono incerte. Stellantis, Volkswagen e Mercedes stanno affrontando flussi di cassa ridotti e una forte pressione sugli investimenti, con vendite in calo e futuro incerto. La transizione verso i veicoli elettrici è una sfida comune, con molte aziende che lanciano nuovi modelli ma affrontano una domanda incerta. Gli investimenti pesanti in un mercato poco sicuro aumentano i rischi per queste aziende. Tesla, pur affrontando una diminuzione nei flussi di cassa, continua a innovare con AI e nuove piattaforme veicoli. Il settore auto europeo è sostenuto significativamente da incentivi e prestiti a basso costo dalla Banca Centrale Europea, ma un cambiamento nei tassi d'interesse o nella politica economica potrebbe influire negativamente sul debito a lungo termine. Gli investitori dovrebbero considerare i rischi elevati prima di decidere di investire in questo settore attualmente instabile.

Takeaways

  • 📉 Le azioni auto europee sono in forte calo.
  • 🚗 Stellantis ha un rendimento del 11% ma flussi di cassa quasi nulli.
  • ⚡ Transizione ai veicoli elettrici con domanda incerta.
  • 📊 Volkswagen e Mercedes mostrano flussi di cassa negativi.
  • 🏦 Dipendenza dalle banche centrali e incentivi UE.
  • 📉 Rischi di recessione per le vendite di auto.
  • 🔄 Investimenti alti in un mercato instabile.
  • 📉 Tesla affronta flussi di cassa in calo ma continua a innovare.
  • 🔍 Elevato debito a lungo termine è un rischio.
  • 🚫 Rischio non giustificato per investimenti di valore.

Timeline

  • 00:00:00 - 00:05:00

    Il video discute il calo dei titoli automobilistici europei, con alcuni investitori che si chiedono se il basso rapporto P/E renda questi investimenti di valore. L'autore esamina Stellantis, Volkswagen e BMW, osservando che, sebbene abbiano rapporti P/E interessanti, le attuali sfide economiche differiscono da ciò che si vede sulla carta. Stellantis, ad esempio, sta ampliando la gamma di veicoli elettrici e ha aspettative di buon ritorno dagli investimenti, ma la realtà è che il flusso di cassa libero industriale è vicino allo zero. Le vendite sono calate, i costi sono aumentati e i ritorni agli azionisti sono diminuiti, spiegando il crollo del prezzo delle azioni. Le aziende stanno investendo in nuovi prodotti, ma c'è incertezza sulla domanda futura, il che aumenta il rischio per gli affari.

  • 00:05:00 - 00:12:02

    Molti dei problemi affrontati dai produttori automobilistici europei derivano dall'aumento dei costi di investimento e da rendimenti in calo, ciò è amplificato dal calo della domanda di veicoli elettrici dopo una precedente crescita rapida. Tesla, ad esempio, ha visto i suoi flussi di cassa liberi ridursi significativamente e ora richiede nuovi investimenti per portare avanti una nuova generazione di veicoli. Le prospettive economiche incerte e l'aumento dei tassi di interesse minacciano di erodere ulteriormente i margini di profitto, con effetti negativi sui bilanci. I produttori si trovano sotto pressione per i grandi mutui finanziari, e se i tassi di interesse europei aumentano, il rifinanziamento di questi debiti potrebbe diventare problematico. L'autore conclude mettendo in guardia sui rischi di investire in titoli automobilistici a causa delle incertezze economiche e dei flussi di cassa negativi, suggerendo che ci sono investimenti a minore rischio con potenziale di rendimento simile.

Mind Map

Mind Map

Frequently Asked Question

  • Qual è il rendimento del dividendo di Stellantis?

    Il rendimento del dividendo di Stellantis è dell'11%, con un rapporto P/E di 3,15.

  • Quali sono i problemi principali affrontati da Stellantis?

    Stellantis affronta problemi come vendite in calo, investimenti elevati, flussi di cassa liberi industriali vicini allo zero e inflazione dei prezzi.

  • Cosa caratterizza il mercato attuale delle aziende automobilistiche?

    Il mercato è incerto e le aziende stanno investendo pesantemente per posizionarsi come leader del mercato, ma affrontano rischi significativi dovuti a potenziali recessioni e domanda incerta.

  • Come stanno reagendo le aziende automobilistiche alla transizione verso i veicoli elettrici?

    Le aziende stanno lanciando nuovi modelli di veicoli elettrici e continuano a investire pesantemente, ma la tendenza di crescita sta rallentando.

  • Qual è la situazione finanziaria di Volkswagen e Mercedes?

    Volkswagen ha flussi di cassa netti negativi e Mercedes ha avuto un calo dell'EBIT e dei flussi di cassa liberi del 52%.

  • Perché le azioni automobilistiche europee sono considerate rischiose?

    Sono considerate rischiose a causa dell'elevato indebitamento, dell'incertezza rispetto alla domanda futura e della dipendenza dagli incentivi dell'Unione Europea.

  • Qual è il rischio principale per gli investitori nelle azioni automobilistiche?

    Il rischio principale è che i flussi di cassa positivi diventino negativi e gli investimenti non producano il ritorno atteso, specialmente in caso di recessione.

  • Che ruolo hanno le banche e l'Unione Europea nel settore auto europeo?

    Le banche europee e l'Unione Europea offrono incentivi che mantengono in vita molti produttori di auto attraverso finanziamenti agevolati.

  • Qual è il consiglio per gli investitori sulle azioni automobilistiche?

    Il consiglio è di esercitare cautela poiché il rapporto rischio-rendimento potrebbe non essere giustificabile in caso di recessione.

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  • 00:00:00
    good day fellow investors as car stocks
  • 00:00:02
    have been crashing lately especially
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    European ones there are a few comments
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    asking s R&D at P ratios below five now
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    value Investments if we take a look at
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    stellantis dividend yield 11% p ratio
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    3.15 that's crazy cheap and that must be
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    a value investment no similarly
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    Volkswagen 3.14 p ratio
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    mercedesbenz again down but not that
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    much compared to others BMW p ratio
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    below five dividend yield of
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    7.8% and let's now dig into the
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    companies what's going on see what are
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    the guidances for the future and
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    estimate whether now at this multi-year
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    or 52 week close whether that is a buy
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    or not so I've checked the presentation
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    from
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    stellantis they are upping the range on
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    electric vehicles introducing new
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    launches the Grande Panda electric
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    vehicle and they expect to get a good
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    Capital return on those Investments
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    however reality is a little bit
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    different here you have their reflection
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    on transitory Dynamics as they say but
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    the key here whatever they tell you is
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    industrial free cash flow near zero so
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    suddenly after a few good years sales
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    are a little bit down a little bit
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    higher Investments higher inflation
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    prices and there you go from great
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    return to shareholders 78 billion per
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    year we are now at zero and that is also
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    explaining the stock price movement
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    because the p ratio now is based on the
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    last 12 months but the stock price is
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    based on the next 12 months and next 12
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    months all else equal will be zero that
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    explains the stock price crash now if we
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    look deeper of course all these current
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    companies have their own issues North
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    America is always an issue for
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    stellantis a little bit lower here but
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    they are also investing and uh they want
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    to be in a position to support the new
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    product wave and that's something that
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    you will see also through the other
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    presentation so new product wave which
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    means more Supply but when you invest
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    and you have to invest over years to
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    create that Supply you never know what
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    will the demand be and therefore this
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    increases the risk of your business
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    business for now they say it is a
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    challenging challenging it is we don't
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    know whether it is transition or not we
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    have not seen a recession if we see a
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    real deep recession in Europe this will
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    definitely not be transitory nobody can
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    predict it and nobody can know it
  • 00:03:21
    revenues are down
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    14% they hope to turn the free cash
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    flows as positives by cost reductions
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    that there will be no strikes ever again
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    and then also on the other headwinds to
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    try to work on those however you never
  • 00:03:41
    know and if the profits go to zero then
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    also it's hard to Value something
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    therefore the stock follows Volkswagen
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    similarly if we look at Automotive net
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    cash flows for the first half of this
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    year negative or let's say like
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    stellantis at zero everything is Down
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    clean net cash flow heavily down they
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    have spent a lot of their liquidity as
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    they are still investing again all the
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    companies investing in positioning
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    themselves to be Market leaders but into
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    an
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    uncertain Market Mercedes also down ebit
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    down free cash flow down
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    52% will likely follow the p of others
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    and that's why all these companies
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    usually move in tandem Sometimes some
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    are better some are a little bit less
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    but still this is perhaps even very very
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    important the electric vehicle trend has
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    turned it was growth growth growth and
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    now we are seeing the first downward
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    Trend while all the companies are
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    investing still hugely in this and now
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    we are down therefore that is also a
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    change shift in the modeling that
  • 00:05:04
    analysts likely do to Value stock prices
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    further something that has always been
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    working great for car companies are the
  • 00:05:13
    financials the ebit there is also down
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    and therefore when it comes to the
  • 00:05:18
    financials and that's something we'll
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    discuss also here then you know also
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    that all those loans given out can also
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    work backwards if interest rate changes
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    plus again Investments are going higher
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    and higher investment in property plant
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    and equipment so R&D expenditures and as
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    those Investments grow due to inflation
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    and costs your margins are immediately
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    lower ebit significantly below free cash
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    flow significantly below but again we
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    will be able to cater to different
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    customers needs well into the
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    203s all new models High Investments and
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    then again like Stan is a product
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    offensive from 2025 onwards that they
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    hope will lead to profits but that is
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    again a risk that we don't know how it
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    will look like just a quick touch on
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    Tesla automotive revenues are there also
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    down so this boom of electric vehicles
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    has returned but Tesla always knows what
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    to tell shareholders autonomy AI New
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    Generation vehicle platform if they
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    again lead on that it will be great for
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    Tesla shareholders but I want to show
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    you something here that affects all
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    companies if we look at the free cash
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    flow Tesla's free cash flow over the
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    last few years 5 billion 2021 9 billion
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    2022 4 billion 2023 will likely be 2
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    billion for 2024 and if my ma is is not
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    wrong I am at 20 billion total okay free
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    cash flow 20 billion total I go back to
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    the
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    2019 earnings report and I look at free
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    cash flow so we have 2017 minus 3 and a
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    half some negative in 2018 then turning
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    slightly positive but let's say the
  • 00:07:22
    Tesla spent 10 billion over time to get
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    out this 20 billion so net earning ings
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    are around 10 billion nothing wrong with
  • 00:07:34
    that great business but now those cash
  • 00:07:37
    flows are already finishing so now they
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    need a new wave a new generation that
  • 00:07:45
    will require again Investments and that
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    also shows you the competitiveness in
  • 00:07:50
    the industry and how you always need to
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    be a step ahead of others of course big
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    Investments but they are always doing
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    that and then I told the Best Buy Here
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    is Tesla but now I see that I am a few
  • 00:08:04
    months five six months late to play on
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    the AI jump that Tesla is enjoying
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    however something that I want to share
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    for European Automotive companies is
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    first we have to imagine a recession
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    when a recession comes half of this
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    parking where they sell cars gets empty
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    secondly all positive cash flows that
  • 00:08:29
    good in the last few years now are zero
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    turn into negative and destroy all the
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    positives that we have had over the last
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    few years plus something very important
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    that few remember is that European car
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    manufacturers are mostly alive just
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    because of European bank and European
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    Union incentives let me show you this is
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    the bonds overview from Mercedes they
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    have been issuing and issuing and
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    issuing investing and whatever look at
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    the coupon coupons here you have the
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    maturity and here you have the coupons
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    147 15
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    2115 145 two so one point something to
  • 00:09:13
    borrow money all these things will be
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    needed to be refinanced at much higher
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    rates likely especially if the profits
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    aren't there then people say okay this
  • 00:09:25
    is a little bit risky or the Euro loses
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    its value look at this Bond we have
  • 00:09:31
    here1 billion e the coupon is
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    0.375 2019
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    2026 this is free money from the
  • 00:09:43
    European Central Bank when they bought
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    these treasuries so the only solution
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    here is for the European Central Bank to
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    print more but they are not the fed and
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    we'll see how these things this is the
  • 00:09:58
    biggest risk here how these things
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    evolve over time I'm looking at the
  • 00:10:04
    balance sheet there shortterm financing
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    41 billion long-term financing 70
  • 00:10:11
    billion euros and that is much more than
  • 00:10:16
    the equity there so to conclude here
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    automotive stocks are risky on their
  • 00:10:23
    debt on the riskiness that we don't know
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    whether the demand for the huge
  • 00:10:29
    Investments they are doing now will be
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    there we don't know that nobody knows we
  • 00:10:34
    can't predict the future so that even
  • 00:10:37
    more increases the risk of owning them
  • 00:10:41
    and as there are zero cash flows the
  • 00:10:42
    dividends will be cut things will look
  • 00:10:45
    much uglier P ratios will be or negative
  • 00:10:48
    or go to 50 100 and then that explains
  • 00:10:53
    the stock price crashing but yes if
  • 00:10:55
    there is 6 months to two years of
  • 00:10:58
    Revival
  • 00:11:00
    stellantis can double and then you can
  • 00:11:02
    call me stupid again that can happen
  • 00:11:06
    easily but when it comes to Value
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    investing despite the p ratio is just
  • 00:11:11
    three it's hard to take this as a value
  • 00:11:14
    investment because the risk is not
  • 00:11:17
    justified if there is a recession and
  • 00:11:20
    this stocks bottom then there are other
  • 00:11:22
    things that even in a recession are
  • 00:11:25
    profitable can survive a recession
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    without being saved by the government
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    like some car companies have been 2009
  • 00:11:34
    so those are the risks a value investor
  • 00:11:37
    does not take therefore you have never
  • 00:11:39
    seen Buffet invest in car companies even
  • 00:11:41
    when those were doing great and
  • 00:11:43
    therefore it is too much risk and when
  • 00:11:47
    these things will be cheap there will be
  • 00:11:49
    others much better from a risk and
  • 00:11:52
    reward perspective you can make two
  • 00:11:55
    times five times your money but that is
  • 00:11:58
    mostly gambling thanks for watching and
  • 00:12:00
    I'll see you in the next video
Tags
  • Stellantis
  • Volkswagen
  • Mercedes
  • auto elettriche
  • mercato incerto
  • rischi investimenti
  • flussi di cassa
  • rapporto P/E
  • incentivi UE
  • Tesla