Peter Zeihan: Why Europe & China Won't Survive the Next Decade

01:07:07
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OBtPd9a5TwE

Summary

TLDRIl video presenta una discussione tra Peter Zeihan e Raoul Pal su vari temi economici e geopolitici legati alla deglobalizzazione, alla diminuzione della popolazione in età lavorativa e all'impatto di queste dinamiche sulle economie mondiali. Si esplora come la scomparsa di modelli economici tradizionali possa essere affrontata sfruttando nuove tecnologie come l'intelligenza artificiale. Zeihan esprime preoccupazione per il futuro demografico ed economico di paesi come Germania, Cina e Giappone, mentre Pal vede una possibile soluzione nell'avvento rapido dell'AI. Nel contesto nordamericano, si discute della necessità di espandere le infrastrutture industriali per adattarsi a un mondo post-Cina. Il video sottolinea anche l'importanza dell'energia rinnovabile e di modelli industriali più sostenibili in determinate regioni del mondo.

Takeaways

  • 🌍 Deglobalizzazione sta cambiando il panorama economico mondiale.
  • 👶 Il calo demografico influenzerà le economie avanzate.
  • 🤖 L'AI può essere la soluzione alla mancanza di forza lavoro.
  • 🏭 Necessità di espandere le infrastrutture industriali negli Stati Uniti.
  • 🇨🇳 Gravi problemi demografici ed economici in Cina.
  • ⚡ Energia rinnovabile come opportunità per l'economia europea.
  • 🎓 Domanda crescente per professionisti bilingue in Nord America.
  • 🔧 Occupazioni tecniche, come elettricisti e saldatori, in forte crescita.
  • 💹 I mercati dei capitali degli Stati Uniti continueranno ad attrarre investimenti.
  • 🇩🇪 La Germania affronterà sfide significative con la sua demografia.
  • 💻 Importanza critica della gestione della supply chain tecnologica.
  • 🗺️ Regionalizzazione dei sistemi economici nel mondo post-globale.

Timeline

  • 00:00:00 - 00:05:00

    初始段落介绍了 Magic Eden，作为 Web 3 的家园，它们正涉足代币交易，使得用户可以在一个地方进行跨链操作，解决用户体验问题。

  • 00:05:00 - 00:10:00

    然后，Ral Pal 问候并介绍节目，谈他如何用乐观面对世界复杂问题，并邀请不同观点的嘉宾来挑战他的观点，这次嘉宾是 Peter Zan。

  • 00:10:00 - 00:15:00

    Ral 和 Zan 开始讨论 Zan 的背景，他自称一般主义者，提供广阔视角解读世界变化带来的挑战和机遇。

  • 00:15:00 - 00:20:00

    Zan 描述了他的两个关键观点：去全球化和人口减少。去全球化是冷战后美国对全球贸易失去兴趣，而人口减少是由于现代化导致城市生孩子成本高。

  • 00:20:00 - 00:25:00

    他们进一步谈论去全球化带来的权力真空问题，以及乌克兰战争和胡塞武装带来的全球运输风险。

  • 00:25:00 - 00:30:00

    接着，讨论各国如何应对去全球化的挑战，尤其在农业和制造业领域的应对策略，例如美国增加国内工业化。

  • 00:30:00 - 00:35:00

    Zan 提到地缘政治风险大多没有出现，但一些危机点如中国的人口问题可能会引发系统崩溃。

  • 00:35:00 - 00:40:00

    关于中国人口和经济危机，Zan 认为中国需要改革以维持系统稳定，但没有有效的方法解决根本问题。

  • 00:40:00 - 00:45:00

    Ral 和 Zan 探讨全球经济增长的公式，指出随着人口增长放缓，传统的 GDP 增长模式面临挑战，可能导致货币贬值。

  • 00:45:00 - 00:50:00

    他们讨论移民在全球经济中的作用，但因文化和政治障碍，移民未能充分解决人口危机。

  • 00:50:00 - 00:55:00

    随后，分析印度和其他地区的人口和经济状况，印度因其人口结构目前没有面临立即的危机。

  • 00:55:00 - 01:00:00

    预测世界经济将从全球化转向区域化体系，北美、东地中海和东南亚可能形成新的经济中心，但需要面对制造业重组挑战。

  • 01:00:00 - 01:07:07

    尽管讨论许多挑战，Ral 和 Zan 最终提出一些在去全球化背景下的乐观观点，如潜在的科技突破和新的地区合作可能带来的机会。

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Mind Map

Mind Map

Frequently Asked Question

  • Di cosa parla questo video?

    Il video approfondisce temi di deglobalizzazione, cambiamenti demografici, e le prospettive future dell'economia globale.

  • Chi sono i principali protagonisti del video?

    I principali protagonisti del video sono Peter Zeihan e Raoul Pal, che discutono di economia macro, geopolitica e innovazioni tecnologiche.

  • Quali sono i principali rischi discussi nel video?

    I rischi principali includono la deglobalizzazione, il collasso demografico, e le tensioni economiche e politiche globali.

  • Come si può affrontare il problema della decrescita demografica secondo il video?

    Il video suggerisce che l'uso della tecnologia AI e della robotica può aiutare a far fronte alla diminuzione demografica.

  • Quale tecnologia è considerata cruciale nel dibattito?

    La tecnologia AI è considerata cruciale per affrontare molte delle sfide economiche e demografiche future.

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  • 00:00:00
    meet magic Eden the home of web 3 they
  • 00:00:02
    are getting into the token trading space
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    in addition to nfts to become a super
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    dap where you can do everything cross
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    chain all in one place they're solving
  • 00:00:10
    ux issues by Building Products across
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    every chain ecosystem swaps borrowing
  • 00:00:15
    and lending nft per and more all
  • 00:00:18
    seamlessly cross chain instead of
  • 00:00:21
    hopping between countless sites and
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    handling multiple wallets just use magic
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    Ed it plus the me token is coming out
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    this quarter from the Me Foundation if
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    you've used any of their protocols you
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    can claim some so check out magic Eden
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    today and watch them become a super DAP
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    in the home of web 3 in real time go to
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    realvision
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    docomo sorry to interrupt but this is
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    the cheesy podcast bit that gets on
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    everyone's nerves but it's really
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    important to me please if you can like
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    me a lot to get the best guess in the
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    world for you guys so click like And
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    subscribe appreciate it than thanks hi
  • 00:01:01
    I'm Ral pal and welcome to my show the
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    journeyman where I go and explore that
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    nexcess of understanding between macro
  • 00:01:10
    crypto and the exponential age of
  • 00:01:13
    Technology now as you guys
  • 00:01:15
    know I'm an optimist based on actually
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    how screwed things are I think the
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    solutions to the up world that we
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    live in whether it's geopolitics
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    economics debt demographics
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    the solutions to that are investable and
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    they give us opportunities for our
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    future and I think that's an important
  • 00:01:37
    framework that I've learned is how to be
  • 00:01:39
    an optimist because over time markets go
  • 00:01:42
    up and the de basement of currency does
  • 00:01:45
    that but you also have to understand
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    where things go wrong and what could
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    badly go wrong and where could my thesis
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    go wrong and for that I always like to
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    bring in guests that challenge my own
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    opinions
  • 00:02:00
    and this week oh in fact that's
  • 00:02:02
    something we do at real Vision all the
  • 00:02:03
    time because real vision is not my
  • 00:02:05
    opinions real vision is a is a network a
  • 00:02:07
    community of incredible contributors who
  • 00:02:11
    bring their interpretation of how the
  • 00:02:13
    world is many of them I don't agree with
  • 00:02:16
    at all many of them I learn incredible
  • 00:02:18
    things from and others are similar views
  • 00:02:21
    to mine and that's what is so useful is
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    to have and be able to absorb the broad
  • 00:02:27
    information that you get on real Vision
  • 00:02:28
    so on this YouTube Channel you only see
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    a small amount of it so you should go to
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    realvision decom um
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    andjoin and just join up um and you'll
  • 00:02:39
    get that kind of breadth and depth of
  • 00:02:41
    information that you need my next guest
  • 00:02:44
    is an all-time favorite on real Vision
  • 00:02:47
    he has very different views to my own
  • 00:02:49
    he's much more concerned about the world
  • 00:02:52
    is going and the outcomes than I am and
  • 00:02:55
    that's important conversation to have
  • 00:02:58
    so I I think you're going to enjoy this
  • 00:03:01
    one so here's my conversation with Peter
  • 00:03:04
    Zan join me Ral pal as I go on a journey
  • 00:03:07
    of Discovery through the macro crypto
  • 00:03:10
    and exponential age landscapes in the
  • 00:03:13
    journey man I talked to the smartest
  • 00:03:15
    people in the world so we can all become
  • 00:03:17
    smarter
  • 00:03:22
    together Peter welcome back to real
  • 00:03:25
    Vision it's the first time you and I
  • 00:03:26
    have spoken I think I think so I don't
  • 00:03:29
    know how that happen but here we are so
  • 00:03:31
    what I'd love as ever I'd love to know a
  • 00:03:33
    bit of your journey how you got to where
  • 00:03:35
    you are today first to frame it for
  • 00:03:37
    people and then we'll dig into some of
  • 00:03:39
    your big Frameworks and then drill down
  • 00:03:41
    a bit sure uh I'm a generalist I've
  • 00:03:43
    always been a generalist and at my old
  • 00:03:46
    company I was the only generalist they
  • 00:03:47
    had ever hired so uh that's another way
  • 00:03:49
    of saying that all the other analysts
  • 00:03:51
    hated me because I kept getting Middle
  • 00:03:53
    East studies in their Latin American
  • 00:03:55
    projects in the energy world and blah
  • 00:03:56
    blah blah anyway uh the clients prefer
  • 00:04:00
    that because they got a broader View and
  • 00:04:01
    I didn't pick fights if we were on a
  • 00:04:03
    topic I didn't know anything about and
  • 00:04:05
    so when I left the clients followed me
  • 00:04:07
    and now I basically brief people on how
  • 00:04:09
    the world is evolving in front of them
  • 00:04:11
    and what their challenges and
  • 00:04:12
    opportunities will be and it keeps me in
  • 00:04:14
    a lot of trouble and a lot of places we
  • 00:04:17
    love that that's why we love your real
  • 00:04:18
    Vision so talking of trouble give us
  • 00:04:22
    your big picture framework here your
  • 00:04:24
    framework by which you kind of
  • 00:04:25
    understand the geopolitical world and
  • 00:04:27
    and the way that you see things because
  • 00:04:29
    I think always helps to frame it if not
  • 00:04:31
    you end up straight down the rabbit hole
  • 00:04:32
    people don't understand it how it all
  • 00:04:34
    fits together of course so two big
  • 00:04:37
    things uh de globalization and
  • 00:04:39
    depopulation first de
  • 00:04:41
    globalization uh people forget that
  • 00:04:43
    globalization was not created for trade
  • 00:04:46
    it was created as a bribe to fight the
  • 00:04:48
    Cold War the US knew that it needed
  • 00:04:51
    allies to line up with it to fight the
  • 00:04:53
    Soviets but since all of the potential
  • 00:04:55
    allies had just been through the worst
  • 00:04:57
    war in history they were really in a
  • 00:04:59
    mood so the US used its Navy to patrol
  • 00:05:02
    the global oceans to create a safety
  • 00:05:05
    structure so that anyone could go trade
  • 00:05:07
    with anyone else without needing a
  • 00:05:08
    military escort and that generated the
  • 00:05:11
    NATO alliance and the alliance with
  • 00:05:12
    Taiwan Korea and Japan and as a side
  • 00:05:15
    effect created the international trade
  • 00:05:17
    system we know today but ever since the
  • 00:05:20
    Cold War ended the US has lost interest
  • 00:05:22
    in maintaining that system with ever
  • 00:05:24
    more ferocity and we've now had eight
  • 00:05:26
    elections in a row where we've gone with
  • 00:05:28
    the more economic Ally nationalist
  • 00:05:30
    candidate and that includes the
  • 00:05:31
    transition from Trump to Biden so even
  • 00:05:34
    if the system could be sustained we
  • 00:05:37
    don't have an interest in sustain it
  • 00:05:38
    anymore then the second piece is it
  • 00:05:40
    can't be sustained for because of
  • 00:05:42
    depopulation uh when industrialization
  • 00:05:45
    happened when globalization happened
  • 00:05:47
    people started taking manufacturing and
  • 00:05:49
    services jobs which meant they moved
  • 00:05:50
    from the farm and into the cities on the
  • 00:05:53
    farm kids are free labor you have as
  • 00:05:54
    many as you can but in the cities kids
  • 00:05:56
    are an expense and you fast forward 75
  • 00:05:59
    years years and we have fewer and fewer
  • 00:06:01
    and fewer and fewer of them it's not
  • 00:06:03
    that we're running out of children in
  • 00:06:05
    most advanced countries that happened 40
  • 00:06:07
    years ago we're now going through a
  • 00:06:09
    10-year period where a lot of the
  • 00:06:11
    advanced world is going to run out of
  • 00:06:13
    working AED adults and we are going to
  • 00:06:16
    have to come up with a new theoretical
  • 00:06:18
    model to manage our economic systems
  • 00:06:19
    that is not based on the consumption of
  • 00:06:21
    Youth or the production of mature
  • 00:06:23
    workers or even having investment
  • 00:06:25
    capital and so there is no structure
  • 00:06:28
    that is globalized that can survive that
  • 00:06:31
    and it's just a question of what parts
  • 00:06:33
    break first and how fast meet magic
  • 00:06:36
    heated the home of web 3 they are
  • 00:06:38
    getting into the token trading space in
  • 00:06:40
    addition to nfts to become a super dap
  • 00:06:42
    where you can do everything cross chain
  • 00:06:44
    all in one place they're solving ux
  • 00:06:46
    issues by Building Products across every
  • 00:06:48
    chain ecosystem swaps borrowing and
  • 00:06:51
    lending nft perss and more all
  • 00:06:54
    seamlessly cross chain instead of
  • 00:06:56
    hopping between countless sites and
  • 00:06:58
    handling multiple wallets just use magic
  • 00:07:00
    Eden plus the me token is coming out
  • 00:07:03
    this quarter from the Me Foundation if
  • 00:07:06
    you've used any of their protocols you
  • 00:07:08
    can claim some so check out magic Eden
  • 00:07:10
    today and watch them become a super DAP
  • 00:07:12
    in the home of web 3 in real time go to
  • 00:07:15
    real vision.com magic for more
  • 00:07:18
    information okay let's address uh uh de
  • 00:07:22
    globalization first so the process by
  • 00:07:25
    which we Del globalize Le leaves power
  • 00:07:28
    vacuums I'm guessing certainly how how
  • 00:07:30
    is this process of deglobalization
  • 00:07:33
    working where are we and where is it
  • 00:07:36
    going we we've been very fortunate these
  • 00:07:39
    last three years because a few really
  • 00:07:41
    heavy shocks have hit the system but
  • 00:07:43
    it's held I'd say the two that are most
  • 00:07:45
    not worthy of the Ukraine war which has
  • 00:07:47
    the Russians from time to time even
  • 00:07:49
    attacking civilian shipping and limiting
  • 00:07:51
    Ukraine's ability to access the market
  • 00:07:53
    and then the houthis doing what they're
  • 00:07:55
    doing down in the Red Sea uh in the case
  • 00:07:58
    of the Russians the Russians are among
  • 00:07:59
    the most among the countries that are
  • 00:08:01
    most dependent on the globalized
  • 00:08:02
    structure and the fact that we now have
  • 00:08:05
    the US Navy actively patrolling places
  • 00:08:07
    like the Red Sea to protect Russian
  • 00:08:09
    Chinese shipping and nobody
  • 00:08:13
    else's that's hilarious uh and we can't
  • 00:08:16
    possibly last too much longer and as
  • 00:08:18
    soon as we get the United States
  • 00:08:19
    admitting or maybe even assisting uh
  • 00:08:22
    that the system is breaking down uh
  • 00:08:25
    we'll probably have a bit of a
  • 00:08:26
    free-for-all in the transport system
  • 00:08:28
    which among other things Agriculture and
  • 00:08:30
    Manufacturing and energy uh the houie
  • 00:08:32
    thing is really interesting though the
  • 00:08:34
    US has retooled its Navy over the last
  • 00:08:36
    40 years because we never thought we'd
  • 00:08:38
    actually have to patrol the oceans as
  • 00:08:40
    globalization kind of entered into the
  • 00:08:41
    post Cold War era and so if you wanted
  • 00:08:45
    Global Security on the Seas for civilian
  • 00:08:48
    shipping today you'd need about 800
  • 00:08:50
    destroyers we only have 60 the rest of
  • 00:08:53
    the world combined only has about 60 uh
  • 00:08:57
    so there's no longer even a theoretical
  • 00:08:59
    possibility that we can maintain the
  • 00:09:01
    cover on all of this and the US Navy has
  • 00:09:04
    been stretched to the breaking point
  • 00:09:06
    just to patrol the Red Sea just to stop
  • 00:09:09
    missile attacks for what is arguably the
  • 00:09:11
    world's least competent terror group can
  • 00:09:14
    you imagine if an actual country got
  • 00:09:16
    involved so we're kind of right on the
  • 00:09:19
    edge and it wouldn't take a big nudge to
  • 00:09:22
    knock us over and what does knocking
  • 00:09:24
    over look like as we're seeing this
  • 00:09:27
    fragmentation
  • 00:09:30
    what is that what does the Tipping Point
  • 00:09:32
    look like to you well that's the thing
  • 00:09:35
    there are so many weak spots uh that it
  • 00:09:37
    really matters what go let me let me
  • 00:09:39
    back up if you fast forward 10 years
  • 00:09:41
    past the break we're probably going to
  • 00:09:43
    get to the same destination but you know
  • 00:09:45
    we are all are going to live through
  • 00:09:46
    those 10 years so it really matters how
  • 00:09:48
    it goes down uh so guessing the specific
  • 00:09:52
    trigger is a bit of a reach uh like I
  • 00:09:54
    said the Red Sea and the Ukraine war
  • 00:09:55
    were items where I thought for a while
  • 00:09:57
    that oh my God are We There Are We There
  • 00:09:58
    are we there but let me just kind of go
  • 00:10:00
    through the soft spot so we've got the
  • 00:10:01
    Europeans who are in demographic
  • 00:10:03
    collapse and within a few years the
  • 00:10:05
    Germans is going to lose a Workforce
  • 00:10:06
    what is the European Union if the
  • 00:10:08
    Germans aren't paying for it what does
  • 00:10:10
    global manufacturing look like if the if
  • 00:10:12
    the Germans don't have a Workforce we're
  • 00:10:14
    going to see that in the next few years
  • 00:10:16
    regardless of what happens anywhere else
  • 00:10:18
    uh the the Chinese are in a demographic
  • 00:10:21
    freefall they're now admitting that
  • 00:10:23
    their birth rate dropped by 60% in the
  • 00:10:26
    last 6 years which has never happened
  • 00:10:28
    not even in the black death uh and we're
  • 00:10:31
    going to see the end of the Chinese
  • 00:10:32
    system within a decade assuming there's
  • 00:10:34
    not a war assuming there's not a
  • 00:10:35
    financial crisis assuming there's not a
  • 00:10:37
    political collapse and assuming there's
  • 00:10:38
    out an energy crisis all of which are on
  • 00:10:41
    Deck what does global manufacturing look
  • 00:10:43
    at without the
  • 00:10:45
    Chinese uh this week we could
  • 00:10:48
    theoretically have the Israelis Target
  • 00:10:50
    Iranian oil production sparking a
  • 00:10:53
    conflict over the energy flows uh from
  • 00:10:56
    the Persian Gulf that's SI 60% of
  • 00:11:00
    internationally traded oil that's enough
  • 00:11:02
    to send prices through the roof and
  • 00:11:04
    collapse among other things the Chinese
  • 00:11:06
    system so we've got all of these straws
  • 00:11:09
    that are supporting so much weight set
  • 00:11:11
    up and any of them could snap at any
  • 00:11:13
    time and when one goes you should expect
  • 00:11:16
    at least two or three of the others to
  • 00:11:17
    go so it gets delightfully Lively very
  • 00:11:20
    very quickly and the challenge in my
  • 00:11:23
    mind is in this grace period that we
  • 00:11:25
    have been miraculously granted how much
  • 00:11:28
    can we prepare for what's coming in the
  • 00:11:31
    agricultural world because of the
  • 00:11:32
    Ukraine war we're seeing movement in
  • 00:11:34
    that space especially with the Canadians
  • 00:11:35
    and the Americans rapidly expanding
  • 00:11:38
    their capacity produced fertilizer to
  • 00:11:40
    make up for what we're likely to lose
  • 00:11:41
    from the Russian space uh in
  • 00:11:43
    manufacturing we're seeing the United
  • 00:11:45
    States go through an reindustrialization
  • 00:11:47
    boom to select specific sectors that
  • 00:11:49
    were more concerned about to bring home
  • 00:11:51
    semiconductors are on that list uh it's
  • 00:11:53
    not enough it's not fast enough but at
  • 00:11:55
    least it's a few steps in the right
  • 00:11:56
    direction hi R here listen I think we've
  • 00:12:00
    got until 2030 before the economic
  • 00:12:03
    Singularity arrives now it might not be
  • 00:12:05
    the exact date but it's around then so
  • 00:12:07
    we have about six years to figure out
  • 00:12:10
    how to unfuck our future I've put
  • 00:12:12
    together a report to help you called
  • 00:12:14
    prepare for 2030 it's going to help you
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    take the first steps in that journey to
  • 00:12:19
    make sure you're secure past 2030 so
  • 00:12:22
    just click on the link below and start
  • 00:12:24
    your journey now one of the things that
  • 00:12:27
    I've learned about geopolitics in my 30
  • 00:12:29
    Old years in markets is we worry a
  • 00:12:32
    lot and less happens it doesn't matter
  • 00:12:35
    until until it matters that's fair yeah
  • 00:12:37
    that's right it's really it's a very
  • 00:12:38
    difficult game because you know the
  • 00:12:41
    geopolitical analysis is a lot of it is
  • 00:12:43
    all about risk absolutely and not all
  • 00:12:45
    risks happen yeah and a lot of things
  • 00:12:48
    don't happen then something unexpected
  • 00:12:50
    usually happens it's usually not the
  • 00:12:51
    thing you're looking at not you
  • 00:12:53
    personally but in general that we're all
  • 00:12:55
    focused on that actually is a Tipping
  • 00:12:57
    Point in the equation where where does
  • 00:13:00
    China fit into this big picture of yours
  • 00:13:03
    what is g here before I jump in China
  • 00:13:07
    let me answer that first question two
  • 00:13:08
    things to keep in mind number one my
  • 00:13:10
    concern about de globalization isn't
  • 00:13:12
    necessarily the risk of country on
  • 00:13:14
    Country it's the risk that the entire
  • 00:13:16
    system the structure of the system
  • 00:13:18
    itself is now outdated and can't be
  • 00:13:20
    supported so it's we're looking to it's
  • 00:13:23
    something much more structural here than
  • 00:13:25
    a normal National risk and then the
  • 00:13:28
    second issue is depopulation popultion
  • 00:13:30
    when you don't have a Workforce you also
  • 00:13:31
    don't have a tax base uh and that is a
  • 00:13:35
    glacial process that you can ignore
  • 00:13:37
    until the point that the glacier hits
  • 00:13:39
    you and in the next 10 years we're going
  • 00:13:41
    to see that Glacier hit Italy and
  • 00:13:43
    Germany and Korea and Japan and China uh
  • 00:13:46
    and we've never gone through an
  • 00:13:49
    experience like this before uh the
  • 00:13:51
    depopulation process is wrapped up with
  • 00:13:53
    industrialization and urbanization and
  • 00:13:55
    we are still in our first pattern for
  • 00:13:58
    that so we can guess at where it will
  • 00:14:01
    lead uh but we have no historical
  • 00:14:04
    examples um as to China China is a
  • 00:14:08
    puzzle because the data is so bad uh uh
  • 00:14:13
    deliberately so uh part of the problem
  • 00:14:15
    there is that the Chinese bureaucracy
  • 00:14:17
    which has been completely gutted by XI
  • 00:14:20
    as part of his the formation of his Cult
  • 00:14:22
    of Personality they just stop collecting
  • 00:14:24
    any any data that they think their boss
  • 00:14:26
    is going to find inconvenient it's not
  • 00:14:27
    that they collect it they don't publish
  • 00:14:28
    it there's no archive anywhere they just
  • 00:14:30
    don't collect it anymore whether it's
  • 00:14:32
    youth unemployment death data College
  • 00:14:34
    dissertations the bond market it just
  • 00:14:37
    doesn't exist anymore so we're we're
  • 00:14:41
    limited to looking at China's exposures
  • 00:14:44
    on a broader basis which are a lot
  • 00:14:45
    easier because there's always
  • 00:14:46
    counterparty data with the trade and
  • 00:14:48
    then second looking at what data they do
  • 00:14:51
    release especially on something like
  • 00:14:52
    demographic where they're actually
  • 00:14:54
    trying with some success to get their
  • 00:14:57
    hands around the data uh the the problem
  • 00:15:00
    in any demographic data is you have your
  • 00:15:02
    census which you run about every 10
  • 00:15:03
    years and beyond that governments really
  • 00:15:06
    don't have a good grip on exactly what
  • 00:15:09
    their population looks like especially
  • 00:15:10
    when it comes to ages but there's
  • 00:15:12
    certain moments in your life where the
  • 00:15:15
    government becomes firmly aware of your
  • 00:15:17
    existence so in China it's immunizations
  • 00:15:20
    when you're an infant when you enter the
  • 00:15:23
    equivalent of kindergarten uh when you
  • 00:15:25
    get married things like that where
  • 00:15:27
    there's a firm documentation
  • 00:15:29
    and as they examine this information and
  • 00:15:35
    cross references with other data within
  • 00:15:36
    their system they're updating their
  • 00:15:38
    census information and the most recent
  • 00:15:41
    updates that we've seen since 2021 have
  • 00:15:43
    pointed to a much worse picture than
  • 00:15:45
    anything we thought existed before so
  • 00:15:48
    the Chinese are now publicly admitting
  • 00:15:50
    that their birth rate has been lower
  • 00:15:51
    than the United States since the early
  • 00:15:53
    1990s they're admitting that their birth
  • 00:15:55
    rate in the last 6 years had dropped by
  • 00:15:57
    more than what have happened to the Jews
  • 00:15:58
    of Europe during the Holocaust and
  • 00:16:00
    they're on the verge of admitting that
  • 00:16:02
    they
  • 00:16:03
    didn't India didn't pass them in terms
  • 00:16:05
    of the world's most populist station two
  • 00:16:07
    years ago it was probably 16 or 17 years
  • 00:16:10
    ago and so we're bit by bit getting this
  • 00:16:14
    better picture and realizing just how
  • 00:16:16
    far down the path trading is how I look
  • 00:16:19
    at I call it the magic formula for GDP
  • 00:16:22
    Global GDP Trend rate of GDP is driven
  • 00:16:25
    by population growth productivity growth
  • 00:16:27
    and debt growth debt growth equation
  • 00:16:30
    finished and that's really just
  • 00:16:31
    servicing of previous debts Now
  • 00:16:34
    population growth is collapsing across
  • 00:16:36
    the entire Western World Plus southeast
  • 00:16:38
    Asia as you rightly point out actually
  • 00:16:41
    pretty much everywhere except for the
  • 00:16:43
    Middle East and Africa where the birth
  • 00:16:45
    rate is falling faster than any
  • 00:16:46
    countries except for China until now but
  • 00:16:49
    they're younger so they've got more time
  • 00:16:50
    that's right much like you saw
  • 00:16:51
    Bangladesh go from nine nine children
  • 00:16:54
    seven children to now 1.6 children
  • 00:16:57
    exactly uh you know you see that process
  • 00:17:00
    early and it cements itself you know
  • 00:17:02
    particularly as you know I've just got
  • 00:17:03
    back from Zambia you can see the you can
  • 00:17:06
    see the a the population bulge that came
  • 00:17:08
    out of Africa but also you see the
  • 00:17:10
    standard of living improving so they
  • 00:17:12
    have le less kids because they they have
  • 00:17:14
    less deaths you know for 30 to 40 years
  • 00:17:17
    it's a great growth story and then
  • 00:17:18
    you're dead yeah that's right so we've
  • 00:17:20
    got this so GDP growth collapses and you
  • 00:17:23
    know I focus as you probably do as well
  • 00:17:25
    is there's the debt side of the equation
  • 00:17:27
    the slower your GDP grows because of
  • 00:17:30
    Aging populations the more unmanageable
  • 00:17:32
    the system comes um and
  • 00:17:35
    my you know what I've observed in this
  • 00:17:38
    is basically we've been debasing
  • 00:17:40
    currency to pay for these things by
  • 00:17:43
    monetary printing or liquidity the the
  • 00:17:46
    one thing that that is still around but
  • 00:17:49
    there's a big rejection going on is
  • 00:17:52
    immigration so Europe took in huge
  • 00:17:54
    number of immigrants they really didn't
  • 00:17:57
    they took in a you well they took in
  • 00:18:00
    quite a lot post the Berlin Wall going
  • 00:18:04
    down there was oh you're talking like
  • 00:18:05
    the Yugoslav movements yes that's right
  • 00:18:08
    there was that was still only about a
  • 00:18:10
    million and a half people for an area
  • 00:18:12
    that had over 300 million it it was
  • 00:18:15
    bigger than that I mean Spain alone I
  • 00:18:17
    mean lived in Spain and you know the the
  • 00:18:20
    population of bulgarians Romanians
  • 00:18:23
    yugoslavians everything else grew Spain
  • 00:18:25
    is a special case but not because of
  • 00:18:27
    Central or Southeast Europe because they
  • 00:18:28
    did a Reconquista uh where they opened
  • 00:18:31
    up the roles to former colonies they
  • 00:18:34
    brought in a couple million people that
  • 00:18:36
    way that was I would argue the biggest
  • 00:18:38
    deliberate intake of migrants in Europe
  • 00:18:41
    in modern history uh and because these
  • 00:18:43
    people were all Iberian descended didn't
  • 00:18:46
    have quite the cultural problems that
  • 00:18:47
    some of these other waves have had but
  • 00:18:49
    we're seeing the immigration part of
  • 00:18:52
    that population growth is tricky so you
  • 00:18:54
    could theoretically import African
  • 00:18:57
    workers you know and there's the the
  • 00:18:59
    migrant routes through Spain and Italy
  • 00:19:02
    of African but they they're getting
  • 00:19:04
    rejected and all of Europe even the
  • 00:19:05
    shenen borders are are going up which is
  • 00:19:08
    yeah something I wrote about a decade or
  • 00:19:10
    so ago I'm like this Shang and agreement
  • 00:19:12
    is not going to last but yeah I remember
  • 00:19:13
    saying it's going to be great while it
  • 00:19:15
    last yeah and it was amazing and then um
  • 00:19:19
    and then that's all changed so and I can
  • 00:19:21
    understand why it's very difficult to
  • 00:19:23
    assimilate a a younger population from
  • 00:19:26
    um a wildly different culture in racial
  • 00:19:28
    different culture into an old population
  • 00:19:31
    old people don't like change with the
  • 00:19:33
    with the exception of Belgium and
  • 00:19:35
    Switzerland very special case and the UK
  • 00:19:38
    you know these These are nation states
  • 00:19:42
    it's the the government was formed by
  • 00:19:44
    one ethnicity in one place and bringing
  • 00:19:46
    in another ethnicity is problematic it
  • 00:19:49
    rubs against the entire legal structure
  • 00:19:51
    of the system this I mean this is not
  • 00:19:53
    Australia this is not Canada or the
  • 00:19:55
    United States these are not melting
  • 00:19:57
    butts no but that's fascinating because
  • 00:20:01
    many of us on the economic side have
  • 00:20:03
    looked at Australia it's like why the
  • 00:20:04
    haven't these guys had a recession
  • 00:20:06
    for 27 years and then you just look at
  • 00:20:08
    that immigration rate the immigration
  • 00:20:11
    rate's been like 3% yeah I mean you've
  • 00:20:13
    got three options you can generate your
  • 00:20:15
    own economic growth of which population
  • 00:20:18
    is going to be components you always
  • 00:20:19
    bring in new people that helps you can
  • 00:20:22
    export products to somebody who uses
  • 00:20:24
    them and that's the China story and the
  • 00:20:27
    Australians have had both both of those
  • 00:20:29
    and the third is to get into value added
  • 00:20:31
    work which I really hope they start
  • 00:20:33
    getting into soon because the
  • 00:20:35
    immigration story has a limited life you
  • 00:20:37
    can only go so far and the China story
  • 00:20:39
    is almost over and its replacement story
  • 00:20:41
    in Southeast Asia will still be very
  • 00:20:42
    good but won't be nearly as hyper and
  • 00:20:45
    how does India fit into this because
  • 00:20:47
    this is a different story because
  • 00:20:48
    India's much earlier in the demographic
  • 00:20:50
    curve it is its own thing yeah India you
  • 00:20:53
    know it's so vast it is both urbanizing
  • 00:20:57
    progressing and its population average
  • 00:21:00
    age of 28 M or 26 so it's it's the
  • 00:21:04
    complete antithesis of the world how do
  • 00:21:06
    you how does India fit into this
  • 00:21:07
    equation so three things number one I
  • 00:21:09
    wouldn't say it's the anti antithesis of
  • 00:21:10
    the world anymore it is Asing very very
  • 00:21:12
    quickly its birth rate has drown by 2/3
  • 00:21:14
    over the last 30 years uh now if it
  • 00:21:17
    keeps going at this rate it's not going
  • 00:21:19
    to have a population crunch within 30
  • 00:21:21
    years it's 0 there's the dividend is
  • 00:21:24
    real and it's persistent but it's not
  • 00:21:27
    permanent uh second this is not a
  • 00:21:29
    trading country uh India never joined
  • 00:21:32
    the globalized order after World War II
  • 00:21:35
    because it saw itself as either
  • 00:21:37
    non-aligned or somewhat leaning pro-
  • 00:21:39
    Soviet and it saw the United States plan
  • 00:21:41
    for what it was a security program so it
  • 00:21:43
    didn't really start this process until
  • 00:21:45
    about 1990 for similar reasons to why
  • 00:21:47
    Mexico was a late Comer uh third it has
  • 00:21:51
    the lowest per caped Capital generation
  • 00:21:53
    in the world because none of its rivers
  • 00:21:56
    are navigable and simply moving things
  • 00:21:57
    around in the system which is how you
  • 00:21:59
    generate the base trade that allows
  • 00:22:01
    Capital to form never happened in India
  • 00:22:04
    and you have this robust population
  • 00:22:06
    growth because you have a basically
  • 00:22:08
    tempered Zone without a winter if that
  • 00:22:09
    makes sense which is the Gangi so food
  • 00:22:11
    production is out of control so lots of
  • 00:22:13
    people very little
  • 00:22:15
    Capital makes it
  • 00:22:17
    inefficient and it's looked like this
  • 00:22:19
    for 1500 years so the Indians need to do
  • 00:22:24
    the same thing that we need to do in
  • 00:22:26
    North America they need to grossly EXP
  • 00:22:28
    expand their industrial plant to prepare
  • 00:22:30
    for a post China world but everyone who
  • 00:22:33
    borders India hates India and India
  • 00:22:36
    hates them there are no Partners so
  • 00:22:39
    Americans can rely on Korea and Japan
  • 00:22:42
    Mexico Canada hopefully the United
  • 00:22:45
    Kingdom if they can figure out what
  • 00:22:46
    brexit means and there's a constellation
  • 00:22:49
    of powers that can work together to
  • 00:22:52
    build a regional future India is going
  • 00:22:54
    to do it on on its own it's an Indian
  • 00:22:57
    story uh but India's looked like this
  • 00:23:00
    for a millennia and a half uh there's
  • 00:23:02
    nothing new here they're going to do it
  • 00:23:04
    their own way it'll be inefficient it'll
  • 00:23:06
    take longer it'll be
  • 00:23:08
    dirty but if you think that Indie is
  • 00:23:11
    about to turn the page no it's looked
  • 00:23:12
    like this for 1500 years so it's a good
  • 00:23:14
    story it's just it's only an Indian
  • 00:23:16
    story so given that backdrop and the
  • 00:23:20
    deglobalization caused by this what is
  • 00:23:23
    the
  • 00:23:25
    outcome so when we talk about Jester's
  • 00:23:28
    risks there's all of these flash points
  • 00:23:30
    there's all of these structural problems
  • 00:23:33
    yes but what is the the range of
  • 00:23:36
    outcomes that are on the table here and
  • 00:23:39
    over what kind of time arise yeah every
  • 00:23:41
    economic sector is going to have to be
  • 00:23:44
    restructured to wrap itself around the
  • 00:23:47
    new geopolitics so instead of having a
  • 00:23:49
    globalized system we're going to have a
  • 00:23:50
    series of regional systems that might
  • 00:23:52
    have some connections among them but for
  • 00:23:54
    the most part it going be trading with
  • 00:23:55
    their in their own network so I
  • 00:23:57
    mentioned the the North America Centric
  • 00:23:59
    system that one's pretty much all
  • 00:24:01
    already set up and all it has to do is
  • 00:24:04
    build out some manufacturing capacity
  • 00:24:07
    now that's a multi- trillion dollar
  • 00:24:09
    question I don't mean to suggest we're
  • 00:24:10
    going to do that in a year and a half or
  • 00:24:11
    anything like that but the energy is
  • 00:24:13
    there the food is there the finance
  • 00:24:14
    there most importantly the youth and the
  • 00:24:15
    demand is there so you can have a North
  • 00:24:18
    American Centric system that attaches to
  • 00:24:20
    a few pieces elsewhere that does very
  • 00:24:23
    well for itself we'll probably see
  • 00:24:25
    something somewhat similar in the
  • 00:24:27
    Eastern Mediterranean and in Western
  • 00:24:29
    Europe with turkey and France
  • 00:24:31
    demographically stable Advanced
  • 00:24:33
    countries being their own Central nodes
  • 00:24:35
    for their own immediate neighborhood uh
  • 00:24:38
    the big wild card in from my point of
  • 00:24:41
    view is southeast Asia uh it's logical
  • 00:24:44
    that it would partner up with North
  • 00:24:45
    America but it doesn't necessarily have
  • 00:24:47
    to because a lot of the pieces of the
  • 00:24:50
    Chinese are already dropping the
  • 00:24:51
    southeast Asians are picking up just
  • 00:24:53
    fine and Australia and New Zealand are
  • 00:24:55
    right there for a lot of the raw inputs
  • 00:24:57
    and even some Financial assist distance
  • 00:24:59
    so we could either see that Network
  • 00:25:00
    merge with North America or go its own
  • 00:25:03
    way both of those are viable options but
  • 00:25:06
    if you're not in one of those clusters
  • 00:25:08
    uh you've got to figure out if you can a
  • 00:25:11
    induce one of those clusters to include
  • 00:25:13
    you or B if you have any hope of
  • 00:25:15
    striking out on your own and the only
  • 00:25:17
    country that I can see right now that
  • 00:25:19
    might be able to strike out on his own
  • 00:25:20
    is Argentina because it's got the
  • 00:25:23
    population structure the food production
  • 00:25:24
    the energy production the mineral
  • 00:25:26
    production talk about a story that's
  • 00:25:27
    always been
  • 00:25:29
    know the potential and never gone
  • 00:25:30
    anywhere is Argentina yeah just just
  • 00:25:33
    keep in mind that in the world we're
  • 00:25:34
    moving into where transports more
  • 00:25:37
    difficult and finance is hard to come by
  • 00:25:38
    and rule of law breaks down you know the
  • 00:25:40
    argentines just call that an average
  • 00:25:42
    Tuesday they know how to work in that
  • 00:25:43
    world uh so even if they don't find a
  • 00:25:46
    way to turn the page domestically uh
  • 00:25:48
    it's not so much that the world has to
  • 00:25:50
    rise to Argentina it's a world will fall
  • 00:25:52
    Argentina so do we end up with more kind
  • 00:25:56
    of kinetic engagement between
  • 00:25:59
    or is it trade Warfare between these
  • 00:26:01
    regions that concerns you the most or is
  • 00:26:03
    it a combination of in the short term
  • 00:26:06
    def definitely trade Warfare uh one of
  • 00:26:08
    the problems you have when you face
  • 00:26:10
    demographic collapse um is that you can
  • 00:26:13
    no longer consume what you produce that
  • 00:26:14
    is certainly the situation the Chinese
  • 00:26:16
    and the Germans are in today uh both of
  • 00:26:18
    those countries have about the same
  • 00:26:20
    number of people over age 50 as under uh
  • 00:26:23
    and so product dumping is the only way
  • 00:26:25
    to work uh the Germans were product
  • 00:26:27
    dumping on the rest of Europe now Europe
  • 00:26:29
    is catching up to them in terms of age
  • 00:26:30
    so they have to go outside the block and
  • 00:26:33
    countries that still have a robust
  • 00:26:34
    demography are also interested in re
  • 00:26:37
    industrializing themselves us at the top
  • 00:26:39
    of that list and so it's not getting a
  • 00:26:41
    very great reception and the French will
  • 00:26:44
    prevent the European Union from having
  • 00:26:45
    any meaningful trade deal with anyone to
  • 00:26:48
    Grant Market access to somebody like
  • 00:26:49
    Germany in the case of china it's
  • 00:26:52
    product dumping left right and center
  • 00:26:53
    and that's why pretty much every country
  • 00:26:55
    in the world including the Russians now
  • 00:26:58
    uh are basically blocking Chinese cars
  • 00:27:01
    from access to their markets the one
  • 00:27:03
    exception is the one European country
  • 00:27:05
    that doesn't have a car industry Britain
  • 00:27:07
    which is kind of hilarious when you
  • 00:27:08
    think about
  • 00:27:10
    it so the product dumping does that not
  • 00:27:13
    end up being a disinflationary world as
  • 00:27:16
    long as it's allowed to happen yes but
  • 00:27:20
    if it gets locked up in its Home Country
  • 00:27:22
    because no one will take it then it's a
  • 00:27:23
    deflation area for them and that's a
  • 00:27:25
    real problem and we're already seeing
  • 00:27:27
    significant deflation in products in
  • 00:27:29
    China yeah I mean China's problem is
  • 00:27:31
    deflation because you know debt gen debt
  • 00:27:34
    and old populations tend to lead to
  • 00:27:36
    deflation yeah and that means the real
  • 00:27:38
    burden of the debt keeps going up and it
  • 00:27:40
    drives itself in this pretty Doom Loop
  • 00:27:43
    that goes on and Europe's been in that
  • 00:27:44
    for a long time yeah China but they've
  • 00:27:47
    been able to export until now so it's
  • 00:27:49
    only now really digging in Europe in the
  • 00:27:51
    case of china they probably need to
  • 00:27:53
    destroy somewhere between 1/3 and one a
  • 00:27:55
    half of their industrial capacity to
  • 00:27:56
    take care of the deflation issue
  • 00:27:58
    that's that's a system em event and
  • 00:28:03
    does the US election affect this or
  • 00:28:07
    accelerate it in terms of the Tariff
  • 00:28:09
    movements and and stuff like that you
  • 00:28:12
    know the decoupling from Europe China
  • 00:28:15
    how is that going to affect it if that
  • 00:28:17
    if that happens well the carbot answer
  • 00:28:19
    is I have no idea um Harris has never
  • 00:28:24
    been in an executive position before so
  • 00:28:26
    whatever she says
  • 00:28:29
    for us to evaluate we just don't know
  • 00:28:31
    and Trump if you've seen his last 2025
  • 00:28:33
    public appearances and speeches has
  • 00:28:34
    clearly lost his mind uh the dementia is
  • 00:28:37
    full-blown and he will not be president
  • 00:28:39
    if he's elected it'll be Vance who like
  • 00:28:41
    Harris has never been an executive role
  • 00:28:43
    ever you so you don't think that Trump
  • 00:28:47
    survis the term if he gets oh God I mean
  • 00:28:49
    Biden certainly wouldn't Trump's like an
  • 00:28:51
    hour and a half younger why the world
  • 00:28:52
    would we think that Trump would it's
  • 00:28:55
    yeah no it's um he I mean mentally he's
  • 00:28:58
    G uh so we just we have no data points
  • 00:29:01
    to draw from whatsoever uh you can look
  • 00:29:03
    at what the previous administrations
  • 00:29:05
    have done and maybe have a little bit of
  • 00:29:07
    guidance um Team Trump was very Pro
  • 00:29:09
    tariffs but then never used the income
  • 00:29:11
    from the tariffs to do anything
  • 00:29:12
    constructive so all that did was
  • 00:29:16
    uh economic activity here uh or you can
  • 00:29:19
    go with the Biden approach was which was
  • 00:29:21
    to identify specific Subs sectors to
  • 00:29:23
    like really dig in and provide techn
  • 00:29:26
    technological fences around them
  • 00:29:28
    uh to block Tech transfer which may be
  • 00:29:31
    more productive but again unless you
  • 00:29:33
    provide some sort of incentive to build
  • 00:29:35
    out the industrial on the other side is
  • 00:29:37
    almost as pointless as what team Trump
  • 00:29:40
    was doing so neither of these are great
  • 00:29:42
    strategies in isolation I mean the
  • 00:29:44
    problem we've had in the country is that
  • 00:29:46
    we haven't really had an industrial
  • 00:29:47
    policy since the 40s and so with the
  • 00:29:49
    exception of Joe Biden there is no one
  • 00:29:51
    alive today who has any memory of it uh
  • 00:29:54
    and we're new at it and the idea that
  • 00:29:58
    we're going to get it right within two
  • 00:30:00
    or three years I'm kind of like yeah
  • 00:30:01
    right but even with that I look at
  • 00:30:05
    things like the IRA which as an
  • 00:30:06
    economist I'm like oh my God there's so
  • 00:30:08
    much about this that is so wasteful and
  • 00:30:10
    so stupid but I was in favor of it
  • 00:30:13
    anyway because it's building industrial
  • 00:30:15
    plant here now and even if we build the
  • 00:30:19
    wrong thing in the wrong place we can
  • 00:30:20
    always retool it the important thing is
  • 00:30:22
    that it's built as soon as possible
  • 00:30:25
    because we have a limited window that
  • 00:30:27
    the ch are still with us and we need as
  • 00:30:29
    much of that industrial plant as
  • 00:30:31
    possible to help us build out
  • 00:30:33
    ours now that leads me into um a big
  • 00:30:38
    conversation I want to have with you
  • 00:30:39
    which is I've been observing
  • 00:30:42
    the Gavin new going to China was very
  • 00:30:45
    interesting because that that's not his
  • 00:30:49
    job and for she to meet him it meant
  • 00:30:51
    that Gavin you some yeah who's a
  • 00:30:53
    non-political squeaky clean out of the
  • 00:30:55
    box person no geopolitics background
  • 00:30:59
    goes to China he should be re meeting a
  • 00:31:01
    regional leader he doesn't he meets she
  • 00:31:03
    so he's he's clearly a messenger then he
  • 00:31:05
    says hey she come back to my place she
  • 00:31:08
    doesn't go to the United Nations doesn't
  • 00:31:10
    go to
  • 00:31:12
    DC goes to
  • 00:31:15
    California and then leaves and then
  • 00:31:18
    there's a bunch of things happen about
  • 00:31:20
    she going to Europe Putin going there my
  • 00:31:23
    general thesis is there's a lot of
  • 00:31:26
    people worried about kinetic Warfare
  • 00:31:27
    with China CH over Taiwan and I'm
  • 00:31:32
    starting to believe the Chinese and the
  • 00:31:33
    Americans have done a deal which is let
  • 00:31:35
    us build the Taiwan semi plants the
  • 00:31:37
    three in Arizona Germany's building one
  • 00:31:41
    and um Japan's building one and you give
  • 00:31:45
    it a grace period and split the
  • 00:31:48
    technology uh well let's start by saying
  • 00:31:50
    no uh the uh the Chinese can't operate
  • 00:31:54
    any semiconductor facility on their own
  • 00:31:56
    that makes chips better than 9
  • 00:31:58
    nanometers uh yeah but they would have
  • 00:32:00
    Taiwan they would have right but if they
  • 00:32:02
    wouldn't know what to do with it the
  • 00:32:04
    tech transfer would be am Ms it's
  • 00:32:05
    several Generations beyond what they
  • 00:32:07
    have the workforce to support so the
  • 00:32:09
    only way that that would work is if the
  • 00:32:11
    United States established a military uh
  • 00:32:14
    authority over Taiwan and physically
  • 00:32:16
    forced all of the Taiwanese to share all
  • 00:32:18
    their technology on a day-by-day basis
  • 00:32:19
    for decades as well as American design
  • 00:32:22
    firms continuing to provide all the
  • 00:32:24
    inputs logistical Supply chains and in
  • 00:32:27
    and intermediate materials that allow
  • 00:32:29
    these Fabrications to work in the first
  • 00:32:31
    place uh it is the most complex supply
  • 00:32:34
    chain humans have ever produced and most
  • 00:32:37
    of the single point failures of which
  • 00:32:38
    there are thousands are not in Taiwan
  • 00:32:42
    they're in Japan Korea Canada the United
  • 00:32:44
    States uh Belgium the Netherlands
  • 00:32:47
    Germany uh so no uh the tech as we're
  • 00:32:51
    discovering with the United States as
  • 00:32:52
    tsmc attempts to build a high-end Fab
  • 00:32:55
    just in Arizona uh it's not just just
  • 00:32:58
    the faap there are hundreds of companies
  • 00:33:00
    in Northern Taiwan that then take the
  • 00:33:02
    chips and do the packaging the testing
  • 00:33:04
    and building them into intermediate
  • 00:33:05
    products that ultimately end up the
  • 00:33:06
    manufacturing system there's a whole
  • 00:33:08
    ecosystem here and the Chinese are not
  • 00:33:11
    good at any of it so no um as for Nome
  • 00:33:15
    keep in mind that he's the governor of a
  • 00:33:17
    state that has an economy that's roughly
  • 00:33:19
    the same size as France or the UK so the
  • 00:33:22
    idea that he can have his own little
  • 00:33:24
    quas foreign policy fits in perfectly
  • 00:33:27
    and also if you think about what the
  • 00:33:29
    California economic model the last 40
  • 00:33:31
    years has been it's been
  • 00:33:33
    de-industrialized focus on Services you
  • 00:33:36
    take the capital of the American system
  • 00:33:39
    with the blendal of the American system
  • 00:33:41
    to imagine the future in a place like
  • 00:33:42
    Silicon Valley and then you use your
  • 00:33:46
    ports to take Chinese finished goods and
  • 00:33:49
    distribute them to the United States all
  • 00:33:51
    the same time that Silicon Valley is
  • 00:33:53
    helping build out the Chinese industrial
  • 00:33:55
    plant that model's over the Millennials
  • 00:33:58
    are aging out with the Baby Boomers
  • 00:34:00
    two-thirds retired the capital is gone
  • 00:34:03
    and the Chinese system is failing so the
  • 00:34:05
    idea that XI and Nome have things to
  • 00:34:08
    talk about oh yeah because what they've
  • 00:34:10
    basically been working on for the last
  • 00:34:12
    generation is now stoping and they're
  • 00:34:14
    trying to see what they can salvage it's
  • 00:34:17
    reasonable okay so this moves me on a
  • 00:34:20
    bit to the answer to depopulation Is I
  • 00:34:23
    say it it is AI and robots you're
  • 00:34:26
    creating infinite humans in every form
  • 00:34:30
    from infinite knowledge to infinite
  • 00:34:32
    physical labor and it's happening fast
  • 00:34:35
    and it feels to me that this is the
  • 00:34:36
    solution that is on the table and the
  • 00:34:39
    Aging population and the falling
  • 00:34:42
    population growth essentially drives the
  • 00:34:45
    urgency of this faster and faster that
  • 00:34:48
    we create a bunch of outcomes we don't
  • 00:34:49
    even know AGI being one of them because
  • 00:34:53
    the desperate need for workers well let
  • 00:34:56
    me give you three problems with that I
  • 00:34:58
    mean number one I I would agree that
  • 00:35:00
    Automation in some form is going to
  • 00:35:01
    stretch the worker and That's essential
  • 00:35:03
    in the environment that we're in uh but
  • 00:35:06
    first things first let's say we're
  • 00:35:08
    wildly successful all of this okay maybe
  • 00:35:11
    that solves the proection side of the
  • 00:35:13
    equation it doesn't solve the
  • 00:35:14
    consumption side and the number of
  • 00:35:16
    wealthy people aged 20 to 45 the people
  • 00:35:18
    who consume everything in the world that
  • 00:35:21
    is a population that is now impermanent
  • 00:35:22
    de coin and increasing production
  • 00:35:25
    doesn't solve that issue at all
  • 00:35:28
    uh second I don't think it's going to
  • 00:35:30
    happen with the speed that people are
  • 00:35:33
    hoping uh remember when I said there's
  • 00:35:35
    thousands of single point failures you
  • 00:35:38
    lose any meaningful country out of the
  • 00:35:41
    globalized Coalition I'm personally most
  • 00:35:43
    worried about the gerbin and it's going
  • 00:35:45
    to take us 10 to 15 years to rebuild
  • 00:35:47
    that capacity in a more geopolitically
  • 00:35:50
    demographically stable area which means
  • 00:35:52
    that these high-end chips that we've all
  • 00:35:53
    set our hopes on we're just not going to
  • 00:35:55
    be able to produce very much of them at
  • 00:35:57
    all I'd actually argue that the most
  • 00:35:59
    consequential outcome of this
  • 00:36:00
    presidential election is whoever wins is
  • 00:36:03
    going to be the one who's going to have
  • 00:36:04
    to decide by Fiat where these chips get
  • 00:36:06
    applied do we use it to crack the genome
  • 00:36:09
    so we save Global agriculture from
  • 00:36:10
    collapse save a billion people from
  • 00:36:12
    starving do we use it for worker
  • 00:36:14
    productivity so that the manufacturing
  • 00:36:16
    labor force could be stretched further
  • 00:36:18
    do we use it in the Capital Market so we
  • 00:36:20
    get more efficient at apply in what few
  • 00:36:22
    investment dollars we have left or do we
  • 00:36:24
    use it for National Defense and
  • 00:36:26
    cryptography I mean those are all good
  • 00:36:27
    good choices we're probably only going
  • 00:36:29
    to have enough chips to try one of them
  • 00:36:31
    much less all
  • 00:36:33
    four I mean if we're going to do ai4
  • 00:36:36
    real we need different Hardware uh the
  • 00:36:40
    the chip that we use currently it's
  • 00:36:42
    called a GPU it's about the size of a
  • 00:36:44
    poster stamp it's the heart of a gaming
  • 00:36:46
    console it's designed for graphics
  • 00:36:47
    That's What GPU is graphic Processing
  • 00:36:49
    Unit uh it generates a lot of heat and
  • 00:36:52
    So within a gaming console you've got a
  • 00:36:53
    bunch of fans blowing on it but it can
  • 00:36:55
    do calculations in parallel which is
  • 00:36:59
    makes it the best architecture of the
  • 00:37:01
    existing chip Network that we have and
  • 00:37:04
    so you take 10,000 of these and put them
  • 00:37:06
    in one room it generates a lot of heat
  • 00:37:08
    that's where the power demand comes from
  • 00:37:10
    but they're very very limited for what
  • 00:37:12
    they are and we're using them for if you
  • 00:37:15
    want a proper AI chip it's not this big
  • 00:37:19
    it's about this big it's a dinner plate
  • 00:37:22
    and it's got a cooling technology built
  • 00:37:24
    into it and it can handle billions of of
  • 00:37:27
    computations every
  • 00:37:29
    second they're designing those now we
  • 00:37:32
    are unlikely to have our first hard copy
  • 00:37:36
    of it before the end of next year and as
  • 00:37:38
    soon that works then it'll be another
  • 00:37:40
    two years before we have our first
  • 00:37:41
    production run in the Fab and assuming
  • 00:37:44
    that works it'll be another two to three
  • 00:37:46
    years before we have enough to build our
  • 00:37:47
    first server F out of these things so
  • 00:37:49
    you're already talking 2029 2030 yeah
  • 00:37:52
    but we are building out
  • 00:37:54
    100,000 server plants already with the
  • 00:37:58
    gpus which is the one with the highly
  • 00:38:01
    volatile vulnerable supply
  • 00:38:04
    chain yes but they're already in place I
  • 00:38:06
    mean I mean Tesla's built its 100,000 on
  • 00:38:09
    we'll be able to use the ones we have
  • 00:38:12
    but the idea that we can overhaul the
  • 00:38:13
    entire economy and just a few server
  • 00:38:16
    Farms I don't think
  • 00:38:17
    so it'll be useful for the people who
  • 00:38:20
    can access
  • 00:38:21
    them yeah and that is it's clear that
  • 00:38:24
    it's the tech Giants um in the US have
  • 00:38:27
    the access they're putting the most
  • 00:38:28
    money behind it absolutely yeah and
  • 00:38:30
    they've already built I mean there was
  • 00:38:33
    an extraordinary conversation with was
  • 00:38:35
    it Larry Ellison just talking about him
  • 00:38:37
    and Elon
  • 00:38:39
    begging um Jensen for chips it's just
  • 00:38:42
    like we just need all the gpos you you
  • 00:38:45
    can produce we'll pay you anything keep
  • 00:38:47
    in mind that these conversations only
  • 00:38:48
    started a year ago so if every chip
  • 00:38:52
    manufacturer that was capable of making
  • 00:38:54
    the gpos switched entirely to their
  • 00:38:57
    production at the time that conversation
  • 00:38:59
    happened we won't have enough to build
  • 00:39:02
    our first server farm for another
  • 00:39:04
    year it takes two years to do the
  • 00:39:07
    retooling and then the fabrication so
  • 00:39:10
    from you from every angle there seems no
  • 00:39:12
    optimism give me the optimistic case
  • 00:39:15
    we're not looking at civilizational
  • 00:39:16
    collapse here yeah and my view is
  • 00:39:21
    actually the opposite but even though I
  • 00:39:25
    agree with all of your major points
  • 00:39:26
    about the de globalization and the
  • 00:39:28
    population collapse I'm more optimistic
  • 00:39:30
    about the role of technology in a short
  • 00:39:32
    enough time period not today not this
  • 00:39:35
    year not next year but by 2030 that we
  • 00:39:38
    have a lot of this kicking in and in the
  • 00:39:41
    interim we just use the global money
  • 00:39:43
    printer to paper over the cracks in the
  • 00:39:45
    system and hope that holds together
  • 00:39:48
    without something major going wrong so I
  • 00:39:51
    actually think the outcome is more
  • 00:39:53
    positive but give me a positive take
  • 00:39:57
    from you is and and again we can talk of
  • 00:39:59
    time Horizons because there's very we're
  • 00:40:02
    both talking very various time Horizons
  • 00:40:04
    from immediate interim longterm so you
  • 00:40:07
    know I don't mind different views on
  • 00:40:09
    different time Horizons sure so we need
  • 00:40:12
    to expand an industrial plant here in
  • 00:40:13
    the United States well in NAFTA uh by
  • 00:40:16
    about double that's not just a growth
  • 00:40:18
    story that's the fastest growth story
  • 00:40:20
    we've ever experienced uh in Mexico in
  • 00:40:22
    the United States in Canada it's going
  • 00:40:24
    to last for several years and it's going
  • 00:40:25
    to build a supply chain system that is
  • 00:40:27
    is immune to a lot of international
  • 00:40:28
    shocks I mean it's a really good story
  • 00:40:31
    we just have to do it as quickly as
  • 00:40:32
    possible in an environment of
  • 00:40:34
    constrained Capital constrained labor
  • 00:40:36
    which means it's an inflationary story
  • 00:40:38
    but what do we build and how does it use
  • 00:40:40
    humans because you look at the new Tesla
  • 00:40:41
    factories they're just all robots
  • 00:40:43
    exactly it's going to look different
  • 00:40:46
    it's not your 1950s Factory anymore it's
  • 00:40:49
    all going to look different especially
  • 00:40:50
    the Stu 30 and 40 years ago and remember
  • 00:40:53
    we don't have to do this by ourselves
  • 00:40:55
    Mexico is right there columb we already
  • 00:40:57
    have a free trade deal with we're going
  • 00:40:59
    to find new ways to put things together
  • 00:41:01
    I have no doubt about that my concern is
  • 00:41:05
    that we have to do it with the
  • 00:41:05
    technology we have now because if we're
  • 00:41:08
    talking about things like a are they're
  • 00:41:10
    going to really manifest for a few years
  • 00:41:13
    in a few years we need to be mostly done
  • 00:41:15
    with the industrial buildout so we may
  • 00:41:17
    be able to retool this on the other side
  • 00:41:20
    of things and that's great and I welcome
  • 00:41:22
    that but we can't wait for those tools
  • 00:41:25
    to become available because China's on a
  • 00:41:26
    very limited time frame so what are we
  • 00:41:28
    going to build it can't be Amazon
  • 00:41:31
    warehouses and there's like that's
  • 00:41:33
    distribution we still need that yes I
  • 00:41:35
    expect uh Amazon warehouses will
  • 00:41:37
    probably also become impromptu
  • 00:41:39
    manufacturing centers things like 3D
  • 00:41:40
    printing are really well set up for that
  • 00:41:43
    uh we need to roughly increase the power
  • 00:41:45
    grid by half because moving stuff
  • 00:41:47
    stamping stuff welding stuff takes more
  • 00:41:49
    electricity than even a data center uh
  • 00:41:52
    we're going to see Electronics probably
  • 00:41:54
    be the biggest sticking point because
  • 00:41:56
    that's a tech technology that today
  • 00:41:58
    requires fingers and I uh and that's
  • 00:42:00
    going to be hard to do because we just
  • 00:42:02
    don't have the labor force here uh
  • 00:42:05
    Mexico it's going to have to be Central
  • 00:42:07
    Mexico because Northern Mexico the
  • 00:42:09
    Labor's already gobbled up in more value
  • 00:42:11
    added Industries uh and then automation
  • 00:42:13
    of course is something we'll plug into
  • 00:42:15
    that uh courtesy of uh NAFTA 2 I'd say
  • 00:42:19
    we're already 90% along the way of where
  • 00:42:21
    we need to be with something like
  • 00:42:22
    automotive and heavy machinery so you
  • 00:42:23
    know that's largely done uh but
  • 00:42:26
    Electronics Manufacturing I think that's
  • 00:42:27
    going to be the sticking point moving
  • 00:42:29
    forward uh textiles is coming back
  • 00:42:32
    pretty robustly and that's all automated
  • 00:42:34
    now so you know the these are all good
  • 00:42:36
    stories but um it's not a straight
  • 00:42:40
    line I worry less about the US for many
  • 00:42:43
    of those reasons and because it does
  • 00:42:45
    lean into technology I'm more worried
  • 00:42:48
    about Europe sure because it's actively
  • 00:42:51
    rejecting technology the only technology
  • 00:42:54
    it's adopting at scale is reable energy
  • 00:42:58
    which is great because over time it
  • 00:42:59
    lowers the cost of electricity if you're
  • 00:43:01
    in a place that's sunny or windy which
  • 00:43:03
    most of Europe isn't but the overall
  • 00:43:05
    issue
  • 00:43:06
    is what is the future for Europe that's
  • 00:43:09
    what I I struggle with and it's not
  • 00:43:12
    cataclysmic it's just a bit miserable
  • 00:43:15
    there's four Futures I mean keep in mind
  • 00:43:18
    as soon as the Europeans realize that
  • 00:43:19
    the Germans are going to be a net
  • 00:43:20
    benefici incen of a net Giver to EU
  • 00:43:23
    funds when when do you think that
  • 00:43:25
    happens what time hor within years years
  • 00:43:27
    right yeah yeah so it's the the EU and
  • 00:43:30
    its current form is at the ad that
  • 00:43:32
    doesn't mean there can't be some sort of
  • 00:43:33
    European Association in the future I
  • 00:43:35
    think there will but economically
  • 00:43:37
    there's four different stories you've
  • 00:43:39
    got the UK which once it figures out
  • 00:43:42
    that really its only option is merger
  • 00:43:44
    with mafta it'll have to suck it up and
  • 00:43:47
    give much more to the United States
  • 00:43:48
    Canada and Mexico than it ever gave to
  • 00:43:50
    the European Union but it's the only way
  • 00:43:52
    to get on the right side of a tariff
  • 00:43:53
    wall with the customers that can allow
  • 00:43:56
    it to maintain economic model it's the
  • 00:43:58
    only game in town uh second is France
  • 00:44:02
    and whoever countries it chooses to
  • 00:44:03
    bring into its immediate orbit which
  • 00:44:05
    will probably include Spain Portugal uh
  • 00:44:09
    Belgium and Italy maybe an association
  • 00:44:12
    with the Netherlands although I think
  • 00:44:14
    the Dutch are much more likely to jump
  • 00:44:15
    ship with the Brits uh and that's a
  • 00:44:17
    Paris centered thing third Central
  • 00:44:21
    Europe their demographics are aging very
  • 00:44:23
    very rapidly in many ways even faster
  • 00:44:25
    than Western Europe but such a younger
  • 00:44:28
    base that they still have another 30 to
  • 00:44:29
    40 years to go and you partner them with
  • 00:44:33
    Scandinavia which has the most stable
  • 00:44:34
    demographics outside of France that's an
  • 00:44:37
    association that has a lot in common not
  • 00:44:39
    just culturally but strategically and
  • 00:44:41
    they're all concerned about Russia being
  • 00:44:43
    Public Enemy Number one that just leaves
  • 00:44:45
    Germany which is hosed uh the German
  • 00:44:49
    demographic is awful their industry was
  • 00:44:51
    designed for a different world they're
  • 00:44:53
    having an energy crisis was shutting
  • 00:44:55
    down their entire chemical sector which
  • 00:44:56
    is feing through through a manufacturing
  • 00:44:58
    system I don't see how that works unless
  • 00:45:01
    someone pays them to exist Germany is
  • 00:45:05
    the new
  • 00:45:06
    Greece so that's a nice
  • 00:45:10
    statement how does Europe fund itself
  • 00:45:13
    without Germany they have a very very
  • 00:45:17
    different sort of Association less based
  • 00:45:20
    on economics and War based on politics
  • 00:45:22
    and and Military factors you basically
  • 00:45:24
    the European equivalent of the NATO
  • 00:45:27
    that's run by the French and do you
  • 00:45:29
    think they're going to do that I think
  • 00:45:31
    that's the only option whether they do
  • 00:45:33
    it is entirely up to them and where does
  • 00:45:36
    Russia fit into all of this since
  • 00:45:38
    demographics are truly atrocious
  • 00:45:41
    yeah um they've been kind of sidelined
  • 00:45:43
    in the system they play this role of
  • 00:45:45
    antagonist within the system where where
  • 00:45:48
    do they where do they fit into all of
  • 00:45:50
    this in the end is this all down to
  • 00:45:52
    Putin or if Putin changes does it change
  • 00:45:56
    I mean how do you see Russia in this in
  • 00:45:57
    this system yeah the whole logic of the
  • 00:46:00
    Ukraine war is that the Russians are
  • 00:46:01
    trying to reach a more defensible
  • 00:46:03
    external perimeter something much more
  • 00:46:05
    similar to what they had in Soviet
  • 00:46:06
    period right now they've got about 4,000
  • 00:46:09
    miles of open terrain on their borders
  • 00:46:12
    if they can get to the Vista and the
  • 00:46:14
    danu and the Baltic they shrink that
  • 00:46:17
    4,000 to about 500 miles and that's a
  • 00:46:19
    lot more manageable for a country with a
  • 00:46:21
    falling population so it's not that
  • 00:46:23
    Ukraine was always going to happen it
  • 00:46:25
    was it Ukraine was never the end of the
  • 00:46:27
    story so if the Russians do succeed in
  • 00:46:30
    Ukraine they will be coming for Romania
  • 00:46:32
    and Poland and Estonia laia and
  • 00:46:34
    Lithuania and we will get a straightup
  • 00:46:35
    fight between either NATO and Russia if
  • 00:46:38
    NATO is still around or the Scandinavian
  • 00:46:41
    Central American Central European block
  • 00:46:43
    and Russia uh one way or the other how
  • 00:46:47
    do Russia afford this uh efficiency and
  • 00:46:51
    economic activity had never been things
  • 00:46:54
    they've overly cared about but they've
  • 00:46:55
    not done particularly well with Warfare
  • 00:46:59
    not done particularly well but the
  • 00:47:00
    balance of forces is still firmly on
  • 00:47:03
    their side in numbers and Industrial
  • 00:47:04
    plant and and weapons and you know they
  • 00:47:07
    now have the Iranians the Chinese and
  • 00:47:09
    the North Koreans basically Belling up
  • 00:47:11
    to the bar to help out and at this
  • 00:47:14
    moment the West has not reacted to that
  • 00:47:18
    reality now let's look for the potential
  • 00:47:21
    of the flip side happening in
  • 00:47:23
    Russia what would change that situation
  • 00:47:27
    if Putin goes does Russia change or does
  • 00:47:30
    it just have another Power vacuum and it
  • 00:47:31
    creates the same well Putin has so
  • 00:47:33
    purged the system of anyone who's not in
  • 00:47:36
    this circle that everybody basically
  • 00:47:38
    sees the world through the same lens so
  • 00:47:40
    we might have some differences on the
  • 00:47:41
    margin but I don't think a new leader in
  • 00:47:44
    Russia would make a difference what what
  • 00:47:46
    would theoretically make a difference is
  • 00:47:48
    if Russian forces such suffered a
  • 00:47:50
    catastrophic public humiliating defeat
  • 00:47:54
    like they did in the Crimean War like
  • 00:47:56
    they did in World War War one that would
  • 00:47:58
    trigger a political revolution which
  • 00:48:00
    would tear the system down and then
  • 00:48:01
    that's the end of unified Russia uh but
  • 00:48:05
    at the moment that hasn't happened uh
  • 00:48:08
    you that could happen in cramy it could
  • 00:48:10
    happen in Kur could happen in belaro
  • 00:48:12
    there are a lot of candidates but at the
  • 00:48:14
    moment this has from a from a Frontline
  • 00:48:17
    point of view this has been a very
  • 00:48:18
    stagnant fight the last couple of years
  • 00:48:21
    the tactics keep changing the weapons
  • 00:48:22
    keep changing but the lines on the map
  • 00:48:25
    haven't moved very much and it makes it
  • 00:48:27
    easier for the Russian government to
  • 00:48:29
    spin this as something that is still
  • 00:48:30
    showing progress let's try and kick
  • 00:48:34
    about the positive view on China how
  • 00:48:38
    does it resolve this mess of excess
  • 00:48:41
    capacity huge debts aging
  • 00:48:45
    population and a reordering of global
  • 00:48:48
    trade of which maybe it doesn't get the
  • 00:48:50
    free reign to export everything
  • 00:48:52
    everywhere at no cost we understand the
  • 00:48:55
    downside which is is the collapse of
  • 00:48:57
    China but what how do they get out of
  • 00:49:00
    this what what is the other the flip
  • 00:49:01
    side of the equation that could go right
  • 00:49:03
    well as you said the core issue here is
  • 00:49:04
    an imbalance between supply and demand
  • 00:49:07
    so either you double Supply or you have
  • 00:49:09
    I'm sorry either you double demand or
  • 00:49:11
    you have Supply uh doubling demand would
  • 00:49:14
    require Star Wars style cloning where
  • 00:49:16
    you grow fully grown adults complete
  • 00:49:18
    with skills in a short period of time I
  • 00:49:20
    am unaware of any breakthroughs in that
  • 00:49:23
    technology and then the other one is
  • 00:49:24
    destroying half the industrial plant but
  • 00:49:27
    now you've destroyed over a third
  • 00:49:29
    probably closer to twoth thirds of
  • 00:49:32
    jobs and if there's one thing that the
  • 00:49:34
    Chinese system won't do it's generate a
  • 00:49:37
    lot of unemployed because when
  • 00:49:38
    unemployed got ansy the last time around
  • 00:49:40
    they formed the kind of Chinese
  • 00:49:42
    Communist party and went on a long walk
  • 00:49:44
    and T down the government so I don't see
  • 00:49:48
    how this is fixable uh without a
  • 00:49:50
    significant change in the structure of
  • 00:49:52
    the system and the CCP has a vested
  • 00:49:55
    interest in not changing the structure
  • 00:49:57
    of the system so okay let's move on to
  • 00:50:01
    Japan and Australia two other places we
  • 00:50:04
    haven't talked much about where how are
  • 00:50:06
    they going to fit into this equation
  • 00:50:07
    where's the kind of downside and upside
  • 00:50:09
    with these two as well well pretty
  • 00:50:11
    bullish on both of those at least in the
  • 00:50:12
    midterm next 10 20 years uh Australia is
  • 00:50:15
    probably going to replicate its success
  • 00:50:17
    of the last 30 years just working with C
  • 00:50:19
    with southeast Asia rather than China uh
  • 00:50:22
    they're not as debt driven it's a much
  • 00:50:24
    healthier growth profile and honestly
  • 00:50:26
    has a lot longer to run because the
  • 00:50:27
    demographics are better so it might not
  • 00:50:29
    be the break break net growth they've
  • 00:50:32
    seen since the 80s but it's still going
  • 00:50:33
    to be a really good story there's
  • 00:50:35
    probably needs to be an adjustment but
  • 00:50:36
    here and there we probably do need to
  • 00:50:38
    have that recession and oh my God their
  • 00:50:40
    housing markets a nightmare and uh the
  • 00:50:42
    sooner that is adjusted the better but
  • 00:50:44
    that is going to knock easily 10% off of
  • 00:50:47
    headline GDP when it happens and that'll
  • 00:50:49
    be rough but on the other side of this
  • 00:50:51
    it's a pretty good story Japan is is
  • 00:50:54
    unique uh the they're the original story
  • 00:50:56
    of demographic Decay but unlike everyone
  • 00:50:59
    else who's been ignoring it they've been
  • 00:51:01
    working on it in bits and pieces since
  • 00:51:02
    the 80s so they found ways to keep
  • 00:51:05
    people in the workforce longer they
  • 00:51:08
    found ways to encourage younger families
  • 00:51:10
    to have children and so while they're
  • 00:51:12
    still old and they're still aging
  • 00:51:15
    they're no longer the fastest aging
  • 00:51:17
    Society in the world there's 15
  • 00:51:19
    countries that are aging faster ranging
  • 00:51:21
    from Spain to Germany to Italy to
  • 00:51:23
    Belgium to Thailand to Taiwan China of
  • 00:51:26
    course and Korea so other countries are
  • 00:51:29
    going to get to demographic dissolution
  • 00:51:31
    due to old age before they do uh in
  • 00:51:34
    addition uh they've also altered their
  • 00:51:37
    economic structure in way I don't think
  • 00:51:38
    China can they've offshored most of
  • 00:51:41
    their industrial production to third
  • 00:51:42
    countries that have healthier
  • 00:51:43
    demographic stories so in many ways that
  • 00:51:45
    is part of the story of the Renaissance
  • 00:51:48
    of the American South where country
  • 00:51:50
    companies like Toyota have basically
  • 00:51:52
    gone into places like Kentucky and North
  • 00:51:53
    Carolina and built massive production
  • 00:51:56
    facilities in order to get on the right
  • 00:51:58
    side of the Tariff threat uh they've not
  • 00:52:00
    just done that in the United States
  • 00:52:01
    they've done that in Mexico they've done
  • 00:52:02
    that in Southeast Asia and it's working
  • 00:52:04
    pretty well so you do the design and
  • 00:52:07
    specific component manufacturer in Japan
  • 00:52:09
    but most of the work is done somewhere
  • 00:52:11
    else so if we see all of these struggles
  • 00:52:14
    these Global struggles and there seem to
  • 00:52:17
    be very few options as this thing either
  • 00:52:21
    accelerates downwards or or Glides in
  • 00:52:25
    that path how does politics change in
  • 00:52:28
    this well think of it this way we're on
  • 00:52:31
    the verge of every economic model we
  • 00:52:35
    have ever designed as a species no
  • 00:52:37
    longer working I mean basically fascism
  • 00:52:40
    communism socialism capitalism they're
  • 00:52:42
    all about distribution of goods and the
  • 00:52:44
    balance between supply and demand and
  • 00:52:46
    labor and capital I mean they all differ
  • 00:52:49
    on how it should be done but that's the
  • 00:52:52
    core format the demographic decline
  • 00:52:54
    means demand goes away in capital go
  • 00:52:57
    away so we need to admit something new
  • 00:53:02
    and to think that countries can come up
  • 00:53:05
    with New Economic models and it doesn't
  • 00:53:08
    change their political system is silly
  • 00:53:10
    and if you look at how we designed those
  • 00:53:12
    four systems we use right now over the
  • 00:53:14
    course of the last couple of centuries
  • 00:53:15
    every time was a new one was introduced
  • 00:53:18
    especially in a place that has some
  • 00:53:19
    geopolitical pressure like say dering
  • 00:53:21
    you know got really real really
  • 00:53:24
    fast so I don't know how that will play
  • 00:53:28
    out because we haven't invented the
  • 00:53:30
    model
  • 00:53:31
    yet but if you're in Southeast Asia or
  • 00:53:35
    North America or Argentina where the
  • 00:53:37
    demographic picture is better and you
  • 00:53:39
    can still use the old models to underpin
  • 00:53:42
    some very strong growth this isn't your
  • 00:53:44
    problem yet we're going to be able to
  • 00:53:47
    look at the Germany of the world the
  • 00:53:48
    koreas of the world maybe the China of
  • 00:53:50
    the world and see what they do and
  • 00:53:54
    hopefully learn a few things even if
  • 00:53:56
    it's just from their
  • 00:53:58
    mistakes yeah I mean again my view is
  • 00:54:01
    that thing has been invented it's called
  • 00:54:03
    Ai and it's the most powerful technology
  • 00:54:07
    Humanity has ever created and it'll be
  • 00:54:09
    the fastest adoption eny technology
  • 00:54:11
    we've ever seen if we can build the
  • 00:54:13
    hardware because of the economic
  • 00:54:15
    importance of this there's tens of
  • 00:54:17
    thousands of industrial steps that are
  • 00:54:19
    required to make that specific Subs
  • 00:54:21
    sector work and we're going to lose a
  • 00:54:23
    lot of them we will rebuild them but
  • 00:54:25
    it'll take 15 years yeah I'm I'm more
  • 00:54:29
    optimistic and I think by 2030 we start
  • 00:54:32
    to see the fruits of this coming through
  • 00:54:35
    I'm also pretty encouraged on renewable
  • 00:54:39
    energy and the overall low of
  • 00:54:41
    electricity cost the renewable story is
  • 00:54:44
    the second most complex manufacturing
  • 00:54:47
    supply chain we have ever had so you
  • 00:54:48
    know from from your lips to God's years
  • 00:54:50
    but those things are very vulnerable to
  • 00:54:53
    any changes in the economic order okay
  • 00:54:56
    we've established the flash points the
  • 00:54:58
    problems the structural issues what the
  • 00:55:01
    do people do about it well it
  • 00:55:02
    depends on where you are if you're in
  • 00:55:04
    Germany you probably want to get a visa
  • 00:55:07
    to go where I'd come to the United
  • 00:55:09
    States personally but there's other
  • 00:55:11
    options Canada seems to be really
  • 00:55:12
    popular assuming they haven't closed
  • 00:55:14
    their doors yet uh but we're going to
  • 00:55:16
    see the last time we went through this
  • 00:55:19
    evolution of economic orders and
  • 00:55:21
    degradation for a mix of geopolitical
  • 00:55:22
    and demographic issues it was the 1840s
  • 00:55:24
    we had the German Civil Wars a fifth of
  • 00:55:26
    the population left and it was the
  • 00:55:29
    skilled fifth okay let's assume
  • 00:55:33
    that 60% of people watching this are
  • 00:55:35
    North Americans and let's assume they're
  • 00:55:38
    in their mid-30s late 30s they're
  • 00:55:41
    average Millennial what do they do in
  • 00:55:43
    this environment for their future sure
  • 00:55:46
    because it sounds like their Future's
  • 00:55:47
    pretty no no it's great we need
  • 00:55:49
    to double the industrial plant that's a
  • 00:55:52
    great story so let me give you three
  • 00:55:54
    things um one from an investment point
  • 00:55:57
    of view anything that's going to invest
  • 00:55:58
    in productive Capac capacity especially
  • 00:56:00
    where electricity meets industry is
  • 00:56:03
    where the greatest expansions are going
  • 00:56:04
    to go I'm not going to identify any
  • 00:56:07
    specific investment plays that's not my
  • 00:56:09
    world but the idea that Capital can't
  • 00:56:12
    just boom in this sort of environment
  • 00:56:15
    considering the demands in front of us
  • 00:56:16
    is silly uh number two trades
  • 00:56:19
    specifically welding and electricians
  • 00:56:21
    those are going to be the single most in
  • 00:56:23
    demand jobs for the next 5 to 10 years
  • 00:56:26
    and basically we're already in a
  • 00:56:28
    situation where about one or two years
  • 00:56:30
    of experience you can be elting six
  • 00:56:31
    figures very very easily uh third
  • 00:56:34
    Spanish the interface between North
  • 00:56:37
    America is amazing and the interspace
  • 00:56:40
    specifically between Texas and Northern
  • 00:56:42
    Mexico is absolutely epic the biggest
  • 00:56:46
    weakness in the North American story
  • 00:56:48
    right now is a technology it's not
  • 00:56:51
    electricity it's technical
  • 00:56:54
    bilingualism we have a lot of engineer
  • 00:56:56
    in Mexico who don't speak English and a
  • 00:56:58
    lot of engineers in the United States
  • 00:57:00
    that don't speak Spanish if we can
  • 00:57:03
    bridge that then you can start talking
  • 00:57:05
    about really taking full advantage of
  • 00:57:07
    what we have on of the border and that's
  • 00:57:10
    a job that earn six figures within a
  • 00:57:11
    couple of
  • 00:57:13
    weeks and how do financial markets doing
  • 00:57:15
    all of this oh my Lord the international
  • 00:57:18
    noise is going to be immense and as
  • 00:57:20
    systems falter the capital flight that's
  • 00:57:22
    coming to the United States is going to
  • 00:57:23
    be absolutely gargant it's probably are
  • 00:57:26
    around $2 trillion us a year most of
  • 00:57:29
    that is going into residential real
  • 00:57:30
    estate and T bills if we can find a
  • 00:57:33
    better way to capture that and apply
  • 00:57:36
    that to the buildout problems we're
  • 00:57:37
    going to have we're all going to be
  • 00:57:38
    better off so you think the US continues
  • 00:57:41
    to absorb the world's Capital maybe at
  • 00:57:43
    an accelerating Pace there's really no
  • 00:57:46
    other option and that's a much stronger
  • 00:57:49
    dollar as well I guess probably we're
  • 00:57:51
    probably looking at the beginning of a
  • 00:57:53
    multi-decade US dollar run so it's you
  • 00:57:56
    Capital Market so that's a continuation
  • 00:57:58
    of the story we've seen already right
  • 00:58:00
    which is import at least yes I mean us
  • 00:58:03
    Capital markets and the dollar have been
  • 00:58:05
    strong for essentially since 2012 is and
  • 00:58:10
    have been sucking more of the world
  • 00:58:12
    capital I mean Europe and others have
  • 00:58:14
    been left behind in that equation
  • 00:58:16
    including China well as a rule the
  • 00:58:18
    United States is more efficient at
  • 00:58:20
    deploying that capital and because it is
  • 00:58:22
    the global store of value and there's
  • 00:58:24
    not even a theoretical competition ever
  • 00:58:26
    since the bricks removed themselves from
  • 00:58:28
    the conversation back in November uh you
  • 00:58:30
    know there there's really nowhere else
  • 00:58:32
    to go it's not that there's not enough
  • 00:58:34
    capital for I'm sorry it's not that
  • 00:58:36
    there aren't other destinations but most
  • 00:58:39
    of them are running a very similar
  • 00:58:41
    system to the US and are very tightly
  • 00:58:42
    linked to the US Australia Taiwan uh New
  • 00:58:45
    Zealand Sweden these are also hard
  • 00:58:48
    currencies that have a very similar
  • 00:58:49
    political structure governing them
  • 00:58:52
    they're all being net beneficiaries but
  • 00:58:54
    only one of them is the global store Val
  • 00:58:56
    what about the UK we talked about the UK
  • 00:58:59
    the UK needs to make up its mind
  • 00:59:02
    if you're watching the average person
  • 00:59:04
    watching this and you're from the UK I
  • 00:59:06
    mean you can I just came back from the
  • 00:59:07
    UK it feels pretty miserable because
  • 00:59:09
    nobody can see a path what is it's
  • 00:59:12
    purely a political problem when the
  • 00:59:14
    brexiteers started making up everything
  • 00:59:16
    that was going to happen on the other
  • 00:59:18
    side of brexit they forgot to ask the
  • 00:59:19
    countries that were involved in making
  • 00:59:21
    those things happen so when uh the UK
  • 00:59:24
    government came to the United States and
  • 00:59:26
    the aftermath of brexit you know the
  • 00:59:28
    United States had a very long list of
  • 00:59:30
    things that they the Brits would have to
  • 00:59:32
    do if they wanted to get a free trade
  • 00:59:33
    deal and the brexit response was like
  • 00:59:35
    but that's not what we told the people
  • 00:59:37
    and the Trump Administration is like
  • 00:59:38
    well you lied to the people you forgot
  • 00:59:40
    to ask us and basically Britain has not
  • 00:59:43
    yet come to the conclusion that if they
  • 00:59:45
    don't accept American and Canadian and
  • 00:59:47
    Mexican terms it's never going to happen
  • 00:59:50
    so we're in this Nether world right now
  • 00:59:52
    we have been for seven years where the
  • 00:59:55
    Brits have are no longer in Europe but
  • 00:59:58
    haven't managed to turn the page to
  • 00:59:59
    whatever is next so the talk about
  • 01:00:02
    having a trade deal with China with
  • 01:00:04
    India with the United Arab Edwards or
  • 01:00:06
    whoever it happens to be that's all kind
  • 01:00:07
    of irrelevant I mean India has trade
  • 01:00:10
    deals with no one China is past due the
  • 01:00:15
    uad isn't a manufacturing power it
  • 01:00:17
    doesn't have the consumption base for it
  • 01:00:18
    to matter and it's too far away there's
  • 01:00:20
    only one play here and that's NAFTA and
  • 01:00:24
    the sooner that London admits that to
  • 01:00:26
    itself the subar can get on with life
  • 01:00:28
    but until that happens they're stuck in
  • 01:00:31
    this Nether world uh because they're
  • 01:00:33
    never going get back to the EU and I
  • 01:00:34
    would argue at this point they shouldn't
  • 01:00:36
    even
  • 01:00:37
    try and the two reasion we actually
  • 01:00:40
    missed talking about just as a a final
  • 01:00:43
    area which is the kind of Saudi turkey
  • 01:00:48
    Iran grouping and Israel let's call it
  • 01:00:51
    you know the whether there's a new
  • 01:00:53
    formation of the Middle East or Old
  • 01:00:56
    Wounds continue to remain open how do
  • 01:00:58
    you see that Nexus of of major you know
  • 01:01:02
    Regional superpowers there's one country
  • 01:01:04
    out of those four that matters and
  • 01:01:06
    that's turkey it's got the industrial
  • 01:01:07
    plant it's got the political Unity it's
  • 01:01:09
    got the infrastructure in place if there
  • 01:01:11
    is going to be a new superpower of the
  • 01:01:13
    region it will not be Iran it will not
  • 01:01:15
    be Saudi Arabia they are not
  • 01:01:16
    intellectually capable that's not a
  • 01:01:18
    racial thing I'm just saying they don't
  • 01:01:20
    have the workforce necessary to even try
  • 01:01:23
    much less the infrastructure Iran does
  • 01:01:25
    it's got s million people and it's got
  • 01:01:27
    people who are trained well they have
  • 01:01:31
    one of the highest education rates in
  • 01:01:32
    the world in they did in the 70s it has
  • 01:01:35
    degraded significantly and when it comes
  • 01:01:37
    to technical skills they just don't have
  • 01:01:38
    it uh back in the Shaw's regime they did
  • 01:01:41
    and there was a lot of Hope there but
  • 01:01:43
    there's also the geographic area issue
  • 01:01:46
    building infrastructure and Industrial
  • 01:01:47
    plant that spans areas requires
  • 01:01:50
    relatively flat land and Iran just
  • 01:01:51
    doesn't have very much of that turkey
  • 01:01:53
    does especially R Siara so I can see the
  • 01:01:58
    Turks um picking the parts of the Middle
  • 01:02:00
    East they're interested in maybe Israel
  • 01:02:03
    part of that so that's a political
  • 01:02:04
    question for them to work out uh as the
  • 01:02:06
    Europeans have problems I think that the
  • 01:02:08
    west or excuse me the Eastern Balkans
  • 01:02:09
    are a very likely addition to a Turkish
  • 01:02:12
    Circle uh and based on what happens with
  • 01:02:15
    Saudi Arabia and Iran you know maybe
  • 01:02:18
    Iraq isn't in play as well but that's
  • 01:02:20
    their network uh and I really doubt Iran
  • 01:02:24
    and Saudi Arabia are going to be with in
  • 01:02:26
    it they're probably going to be just on
  • 01:02:27
    the other side of the edge because the
  • 01:02:28
    madis would love to have a security
  • 01:02:31
    guarantor that they don't
  • 01:02:33
    border and and the only way turkey can
  • 01:02:35
    be a security guarantor for anyone in
  • 01:02:37
    the Gulf is by taking over Iraq first
  • 01:02:40
    and the Suns do not want to see that
  • 01:02:42
    happen no
  • 01:02:44
    and so if you're young and you can move
  • 01:02:48
    around the world because you can work
  • 01:02:49
    from
  • 01:02:50
    anywhere the us but it's not easy to go
  • 01:02:52
    to Australia not easy to go to Canada
  • 01:02:56
    pretty easy to go to not
  • 01:02:59
    anymore okay government just reduced
  • 01:03:02
    inward migration Visa approvals by 80%
  • 01:03:06
    so then where do you go Latin
  • 01:03:08
    America you're going to have to find a
  • 01:03:10
    way in and you're probably going to have
  • 01:03:12
    to be in a less than fully legal status
  • 01:03:15
    in the meantime there are still ways to
  • 01:03:16
    get to the United States uh on a student
  • 01:03:19
    visa on an interin visa and then you
  • 01:03:21
    have to wait for politics to change so
  • 01:03:23
    that we're a little bit more willing to
  • 01:03:25
    accept migr
  • 01:03:26
    uh the same holds for all of the other
  • 01:03:27
    settler States andan there's there's a
  • 01:03:30
    very clear story here of where the
  • 01:03:31
    economic growth is going to be and the
  • 01:03:34
    smart thing on the part of the settler
  • 01:03:36
    States at the moment would be to have
  • 01:03:37
    the doors as open as possible uh with an
  • 01:03:40
    admitting immigration system because
  • 01:03:42
    labor is in short supply and skilled
  • 01:03:44
    labor is on the move but we're just not
  • 01:03:47
    there yet no very interesting let's see
  • 01:03:51
    where the US election leads in some of
  • 01:03:54
    these as well we'll wait can find out
  • 01:03:56
    whether it changes anything um you've
  • 01:03:58
    got some pretty bold predictions around
  • 01:04:00
    that as well and yeah it's going to be
  • 01:04:04
    you know we already said it's been a
  • 01:04:05
    hell of a year well last year was a hell
  • 01:04:07
    of a year the year before that and it
  • 01:04:09
    feels like 2025 26 that I mean there's a
  • 01:04:12
    lot to come still yeah we're only at the
  • 01:04:15
    beginning of this
  • 01:04:17
    transition and when does it finish
  • 01:04:21
    demographically the majority of the
  • 01:04:22
    countries that matter will be flipped
  • 01:04:24
    over the side within 10 years so it's
  • 01:04:26
    between now and call
  • 01:04:30
    it2 between now and 20 2035 is when the
  • 01:04:33
    lit the fan we figured out a way
  • 01:04:36
    through it for the countries are going
  • 01:04:37
    to do well uh by
  • 01:04:40
    2040 much a long way it is that's a long
  • 01:04:43
    way for some time which is probably
  • 01:04:47
    probably uh when we will finally be able
  • 01:04:49
    to apply a i scale well let's wait and
  • 01:04:52
    see how this all plays out Peter look
  • 01:04:54
    fascinating talking to
  • 01:04:56
    um and I very much appreciate you coming
  • 01:04:58
    on and giving us your insights to your
  • 01:05:01
    very big picture and then drilling down
  • 01:05:03
    so as you can see you know I always try
  • 01:05:05
    to explore commonality of ground
  • 01:05:08
    commonality of understanding and explore
  • 01:05:10
    differences it's important for me to
  • 01:05:12
    build on my own framework I need to know
  • 01:05:15
    risks you can't just be a blind Optimist
  • 01:05:18
    without understanding them and Peter
  • 01:05:20
    comes with a different perspective than
  • 01:05:22
    my own and I value that I value a
  • 01:05:24
    conversation like this it doesn't make
  • 01:05:27
    me change my mind but I take it on board
  • 01:05:31
    sometimes I have conversations that will
  • 01:05:32
    change my mind but I've now got some
  • 01:05:34
    markers to know if some of my views are
  • 01:05:37
    wrong and that's how you've got to use
  • 01:05:39
    information you've got to be able to
  • 01:05:41
    absorb information from different
  • 01:05:43
    sources with different opinions and not
  • 01:05:47
    attack it with your own mentality but
  • 01:05:49
    try and absorb it let it flow through
  • 01:05:51
    you and see how it sits because often if
  • 01:05:54
    it sits really bad with you with you it
  • 01:05:58
    means your biases are too strong anyway
  • 01:06:01
    I hope you find that useful uh I'll see
  • 01:06:03
    you on realvision for more realvision
  • 01:06:06
    docomo see you there meet magic Eden the
  • 01:06:10
    home of web 3 they are getting into the
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    token trading space in addition to nfts
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    to become a super dap where you can do
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    everything cross chain all in one place
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    they're solving ux issues by Building
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    Products across every chain ecosystem
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    swaps borrowing and lending nft perss
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    and more all seamlessly cross chain
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    instead of hopping between countless
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    sites and handling multiple wallets just
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    use magic Eden plus the me token is
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    coming out this quarter from the Me
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    Foundation if you've used any of their
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    protocols you can claim some so check
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    out magic Eden today and watch them
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    become a super DAP in the home of web 3
  • 01:06:47
    in real time go to realvision dcom slmag
  • 01:06:50
    for more
  • 01:06:51
    information hey thanks for sticking
  • 01:06:53
    around to the end uh look if you enjoy
  • 01:06:55
    it hit the Subscribe button and check
  • 01:06:57
    out the video here on the right hand
  • 01:06:59
    side I'm sure you'll enjoy that one as
  • 01:07:00
    well and if you're ready for more go to
  • 01:07:03
    real
  • 01:07:04
    wish.com jooin I'll see you there
Tags
  • deglobalizzazione
  • cambiamento demografico
  • intelligenza artificiale
  • geopolitica
  • economia globale
  • tecnologie future
  • Nord America
  • Cina
  • Europa
  • crisi economiche