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okay let's move on because a lot of
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questions in the audience Brian you've
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anticipated pretty much the next one
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it's from Susie Wakefield um hello
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recently on insiders Malcolm Roberts
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gave Barry Cassidy his business card and
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asked Barry to get back to him when he
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had proof and data that there is a human
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element in our increasing climate change
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I was hoping the panel could perhaps
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guide um Barry with some fact and just
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not opinion on the human element in
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climate change I was going to start with
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Brian Cox um the scientist on the panel
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and uh can you provide scientific data
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or evidence that might help Barry
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Cassidy convince Malcolm over here that
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human induced climate change is a
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reality well yes and I could sit here
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and read out figures until I'm blew in
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the face I mean it what actually um
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interestingly the it's getting more
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worrying if you look at the temperature
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measurements now I mean at 2015 and 2016
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in particular have seen a a a quite
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shocking acceleration in in many of the
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measures be it surface temperatures
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ocean temperatures Etc so so I the first
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few months I noticed of 2016 have um
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above the average the pre-industrial
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average have been pushing 1.5 degrees
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now you can't read too much into
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individual years you have to be careful
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because you see these graphs and they're
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spiky but there's a there's a clear rise
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in it's very the lat the latest data is
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actually suggesting that by uh 2024
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1.5° increase um is on the cards now
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well which puts us very close to the
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critical that's and that's a prediction
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of of the models but actually in the
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first the early months of 2016 have
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already shown that so so we don't know
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how 2016 is going to continue but that
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that is a worrying problem because what
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would happen if we reached 2% oh there
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are some um shocking predictions
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actually that you see where where places
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in in the Middle East for example that
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are already experiencing temperatures
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sometimes excess of 50° I think this
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year um become essentially uninhabitable
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for certain periods of time so it it
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exacerbates you know sea level rise ET
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what it does it exacerbates some of the
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problems we're seeing we just spoke
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about Refugee problems um if you begin
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to get large shifts in climate very fast
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then populations have to respond so how
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do you respond on very short time scales
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one of the things you do is is you move
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so again I emphasize it's the same
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answer as the answer the last question I
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think this is now a clear Global problem
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um the absolute absolute consensus is
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that that Human Action is leading to an
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increase in average temperatures
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absolute consensus it it it I can't I I
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know you may try to argue with that but
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you can't no not so um so but therefore
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um but the key points is can we respond
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to it is do we have the political
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institutions and the political will and
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the organization globally to respond to
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this Challenge and that worries me
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immensely I don't think we do at the
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moment I'm going to go quickly to uh
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Malcolm Robertson we want to hear from
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all the panelists on this but sure the
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longest uh temperature record for for
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temperatures on this planet is a central
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England temperature record which goes
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back to the mid 16 1600s and the first
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of the sorry the the latest in 16 in
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17th century the latest warming cycle in
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the 17th century going into the 18th
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century was faster and greater than the
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latest warming which finished in
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1995 and Justin Bieber wasn't flying his
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private jet around in the
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1600s that's the first thing the second
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thing was we've had a pause in in this
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so-called warming for now 21 years
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depend how you measure it 21 years and
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I'm absolutely
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stunned that someone who is inspired by
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Richard Fineman a fantastic scientist
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who believes in empirical evidence is
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quoting a consensus can I just I just I
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brought the graph right I mean can I
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[Applause]
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just okay just tell you where where the
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where where the pause is the pause
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that's often quoted there's um if you
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take this point here which is about 1997
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I think and you ignore 2015 2016 you can
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choose that point and you can draw a
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slightly straighter trend line on there
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but that that's a a misunderstanding the
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question is does that rise and also
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secondly i' brought another graph
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because I thought is it correlated with
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that which is the graph that shows the
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um CO2 emissions the CO2 imp parts per
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million in the atmosphere and you see
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that Peak there where it goes flying up
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so the the question essentially is first
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of all are those two things correlated
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and secondly do we understand the
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physical mechanisms and we we understood
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those is the 19th century I can teach I
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can give you a lesson if you want I can
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give you can you go back to the middle
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of the graph there yeah the the that
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graph yeah the peak in the middle yep
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what year is that that's about 1941 yeah
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1930s and 40s were warmer than the
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current decades what it where's that
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what's the data source well not exactly
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no no the original
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original the original records are five
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the other thing that tells me that graph
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has got something wrong with it is that
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1998 was about the same as
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20156 okay I'm I'm going to pause here
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so you're hearing so you're hearing ELO
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year both
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were just just one second you're hearing
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the interpretation of a highly qualified
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scientist um and you're just saying I
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don't believe it is that right I'm
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saying I'm saying I'm saying two
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things I think I'm saying two
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things I'm saying two things first of
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all that the data has been corrupted and
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we know that the 1930 corrupted
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corrupted what do you mean corrupted
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being manipulated and by NASA
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yes this is quite serious no I'm going
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to the audience just hang on we've
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actually got to hear what's being said
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here so it's all very well to laugh but
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we want to hear what's being said Steve
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Godard um he he has shown the NASA
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figure
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and the the graph was originally showing
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that 1930s were warmer than recent
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decades and that is correct and people
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have recognize that for many many years
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and in the recent years they have
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they've been reversed so that the 1930s
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were reduced in temperature and the
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later periods were inflated in
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temperature that's a fact now the Bureau
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of meteorology is exactly the same and
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Greg Hunt squashed an investigation of
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the Bureau of meteorology earlier this
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year okay all right Greg Hunt can I just
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Che do one thing NASA n NASA
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the people that landed men on the moon I
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should just ask actually you you believe
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we landed men on the moon see see see
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the little trick there no it's
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questioning whether or not I believe
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that I'm I'm a a moon skeptic now are
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you no I'm not oh right no no but I mean
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I mean it's a serious accusation I mean
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the idea the idea that NASA and
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presumably I should say to people by the
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way the the um Australian Academy of
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Science have done a brilliant you can
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never get any sense on on programs like
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this that serial and things but this the
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science of climate change the um the
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Australian Academy of Sciences report is
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superb I I brought it because I'm going
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to come and give it to you in a minute
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so you can have a read but that's very
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good if you want to see but the point is
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that the accusation that that NASA PR
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all the the Australian the the Met
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Office in the UK everybody is
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collaborating to manipulate Global
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temperature data saying they're
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collaborating well they all they've all
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manipulated it in the same way and
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accidentally got to the same answer is
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that what you saying NASA NASA was led
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by James Hansen what about the in the UK
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then this could go around all night it
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could it could go around all night I
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want to hear fromg been accused of
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stopping an investigation into these are
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all experts in their field and they
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advise us on what is real and what is
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what is not real and and as far as I'm
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concerned the the the where politics
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comes into play is how to implement
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their advice as far as I'm concerned
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politics should be based on empirical
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evidence all policy should be based on
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empirical evidence I've heard consensus
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which is not science I've heard appeals
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to Authority which is not science I've
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heard um various Illusions hang I've
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heard hang
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on hang on hang on hang on Brian you
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showed me a graph of temperature yeah
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but I you showed me a graph of
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temperature but no one has ever
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explained cause and effect what is
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important in science and your and one of
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your INSP Peter one of your Inspire
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inspirers is Richard fan Richard finan
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says it doesn't matter how beautiful how
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emotional your theory if the evidence
00:09:07
does not suit it is wrong that's what
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Richard fan says and what we need is a
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is not just empirical evidence we need
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empirical hang on we need empirical
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evidence that demonstrates and proves
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cause and effect and Greg Hunt says he
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relies on advice I have never ever heard
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Greg Hunt say that he relies on data now
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Brian you asked for a minute and you you
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wanted to
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to respond a broader point about how you
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would do science and and this issue in
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general so it's a obviously a sensible
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as you said a very important question to
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ask what will our climate be like which
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is essentially the probability of
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weather what's it going to be like in
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2050 and 201100 under different
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scenarios given that we understand a
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physical mechanism for greenhouse
00:09:53
warming ET I mean you were right in one
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thing you said which is that um CO2 is
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essential for life it is the the the
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temperature on the surface of the Earth
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would be very low below freezing if it
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wasn't for the fact that we had a
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greenhouse effect you see that on Venus
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as well so we understand they wouldn't
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understand the physical mechanisms but
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the point is it's a legitimate question
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and a very important question to ask
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what if we carry on emitting greenhous
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gases at this rate or an increased rate
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or a decreased rate what do we think
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will be the impact on the climate in 50
00:10:21
years time can only answer that question
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if we understand it now so yes so so the
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the way you do that is you make
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measurement now of temperatures sea
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temperatures sea levels Arctic Ice
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volume etc etc etc and then you try and
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model the climate in order to make a
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prediction about the future now that's
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the only way that you can make a
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prediction about the future there is no
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other way so you can check the models
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the mod have already been proven wrong
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hopelessly wrong well no they check you
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cross check them into the past for
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example they do quite nicely um you they
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have a large uh but actually shrinking
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error range on them but the question is
00:11:02
if you don't do that if you don't model
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which is a central part of the
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scientific process how do you go about
00:11:10
answering the question which as you said
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um our young people here have a right to
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ask which is what will the world be like
00:11:17
in 2050 in 2075 in 20100 if you don't
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model it this is my question to you if
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you don't model it how can you go about
00:11:26
trying to answer the question the models
00:11:29
the ipcc uses are unvalidated and
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erroneous and have already been proven
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hopelessly wrong and that's a
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fact how would you go about answering
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the question you answer the question by
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making projections based on models
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providing the models are validated and
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have been proven to be accurate and the
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models have already been proven to be
00:11:48
inaccurate and the ipcc has has
00:11:51
recognized that and admitted it now what
00:11:52
we need to do is look at the empirical
00:11:54
data and the empirical data says quite
00:11:57
categorically that the levels of of
00:11:59
carbon dioxide in the atmosphere are a
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result of temperature
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changes flat out wrong no it's
00:12:07
not it is flat out looked at the data
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sorry just hang on we got he listened to
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you and now you have to listen to him it
00:12:14
is wrong let me just all right I'll just
00:12:16
give you one snapshot so so I took a
00:12:18
snapshot of the the the the the
00:12:21
different bits of evidence for 2015 so
00:12:23
Global upper ocean heat content highest
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on record in 2015 Global sea level
00:12:29
highest on record in 2015 70 millim
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higher than that observed in 1993 Global
00:12:35
surface temperature highest on record El
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Nino um something like 10 to 40%
00:12:40
contribution to that tropical Cyclones
00:12:42
well above average overall as you said
00:12:44
and the the even the the anecdotal data
00:12:47
I actually had a wonderful I I was going
00:12:49
to story them but I won't do because
00:12:51
it'll take too long but did you said so
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so the point is you you go evidence
00:12:55
evence Arctic continue to warm c i
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extent low Arctic land surface
00:13:00
temperature in 2015 2.2 de F above 1981
00:13:03
to
00:13:05
210 but the point is the key point is
00:13:09
that if you don't accept that the only
00:13:12
way to try to formulate policy on what
00:13:16
we do with emissions is to build models
00:13:19
that's the only way you can predict the
00:13:21
future otherwise you have tarot cards
00:13:23
just before you come in malol I'm going
00:13:25
to interrupt because I want to hear from
