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[Music]
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[Applause]
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[Music]
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good morning everybody Welcome to the
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game plan my name is Gareth solay Chief
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Market strategist here at verified
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investing and listen it has been a week
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of the ages right incredible moves in
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the stock market huge events the Federal
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Reserve the election economic news you
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name it uh earnings are coming to a
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close yeah we got some earnings
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yesterday after the Bell but for the
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most part smaller name companies not the
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big Mega cap trillion dollar names but
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we're going to look at some key charts
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today I want to go over the S&P 500 as
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well and see where this Market could be
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heading is there a lot more upside is
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there a little upside or are we at a
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potential top all right let's start off
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with the B Bic right let's go right into
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the market action today what is
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happening right now and what we could
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see right here is that the S&P 500
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basically in the overnight kind of
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sideways is this morning at 4 in the
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morning we had a little bit of a drop
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and then we floated back up all in all
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the markets are around the Flatline now
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if you think about this we had the
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elections we had the FED today to me at
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least would be what we call a hangover
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day it's like after you've gone out and
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partied too much in other words too much
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has gone on you just need a little bit
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of a breather so for today generally
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you'd expect a small up day a small down
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day I'm favoring a small down day
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because of a chart I'm going to show you
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in just one second but I wouldn't expect
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a big move unless some breaking news
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happens right other than that you're
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looking at a smaller move in the markets
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maybe a half percent give or take by the
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end of the day now next week we'll see
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what happens that's going to be the big
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kicker what do we see do we see
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continuation to the upside or not now
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let's look at the daily chart of the S&P
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so knew we had this wedge pattern we
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broke down from the wedge pattern we
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never quite got to the level I was
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thinking it was just below here but then
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the elections hit we had the monster
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rally and look at where we ended
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yesterday right back into what I call
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the scene of the crime and this is
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actually why I favor a small down day
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today and again I don't think it's going
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to be a big down day but just a small
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one because you did run into significant
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resistance right here on the S&P so
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again you have to say okay until proven
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otherwise resistance is resistance and
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support is support just like when we
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were coming down to this level I said
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you had to expect a rally off that
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because until support is confirmed below
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and broken it it favors the upside it's
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support it's supposed to support price
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right and that's the basics of technical
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analysis so we'll look at that on the
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S&P we'll see if we get a little bit of
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a pullback but one thing just to keep in
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mind the NASDAQ still shows that it's
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not quite at a resistance level just yet
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so if we look at the NASDAQ chart here
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this is this is the NASDAQ 100 the QQQ
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notice how we're really close to that
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little level right there if I zoom out
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on this line it goes back to the bull
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market high of 2021 you connect it
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through the July High just before the
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August collapse that high and then look
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at how close we are so in terms of
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whether or not we get a little upside or
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downside this may tell us that there's
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still a little bit of upside left in
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Tech whether it's today or Monday I
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don't know but you would expect to at
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least touch this level right here on the
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charts now let's go to the S&P 500 this
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is a line that I have to say concerns me
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now we've talked about how overall I've
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said to you I think there's upside to
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6,000 on the S&P we're only about 30
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points away at this point maybe even
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6100 but after that it gets really murky
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and Gray in other words we're hitting
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major levels now if we go over to the
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chart on the S&P 500 here and you could
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do this with the Dow Jones Industrial
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Average as well and you go back and you
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put it in logarithmic now remember the
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logarithmic view is helpful because it
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essentially takes out the price change
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and puts in the percentage change and
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essentially it gives you an easier way
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to view long long historical moves of
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thousands and thousands of percentage
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points right so when you're looking at
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something we're going back here this
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over here this level right over here
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guys this right here and let me just
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break that bring that back here to this
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level here but this level right here is
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the
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1929 high in the stock stock market so
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just before the Great Depression and
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what we see on that is that if you take
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a logarithmic View and you take that
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high and we connected through the high
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right here you know what high this was
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this was the dot high so we're talking
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about in his history two of the most
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major pivot tops ever really in the US
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Stock Market and look at what we're
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approaching now in 2021 we got close to
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that line and I know it's hard to see
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from your Vantage Point back there we
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got close but now we are literally just
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I would say about 100 points or less
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away from that level and my concern with
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this is that I just use logic and and
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history and I say to myself okay so this
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here was one of those biggest drops
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we've ever seen here in the stock market
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collapse in 1929 the Great Depression
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this was an epic collapse in the do com
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era right in 99 20002 2001 does that
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dictate does history tell us that the
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probabilities could be for a bigger drop
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and again how much of a drop we don't
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really know but again could it be one of
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those 50% declines in the S&P that's a
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possibility and so that's what we're
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talking about that trend line alone has
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me kind of saying hm let's be a little
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bit careful and I've even said to you
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guys in this game plan that once we get
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over 6,000 I'm probably going to take a
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multi-year output option on the S&P 500
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I will let you know exactly what
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contract I'm looking at once I do it
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I'll give you all the stats don't worry
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I'll reveal the trade and exactly how
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much money I put in it I have no problem
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doing that whatsoever okay so again
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that's something to keep an eye on there
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let's keep watching now I did do some
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analysis last night on Nvidia right so
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Nvidia I had an upside Target of around
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150 maybe a little bit above this trend
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line here makes me think we could go as
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high as 158 that's not that far away we
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closed at basically 149 yesterday but
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what we see here is if you go back to
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the 2021 bull market High which looks so
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crazy on this chart I can't believe that
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was the bull market high on Nvidia but
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that's what it was back down here it was
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at $35 a share and you connect it to the
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high this year uh in June just before
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the big collapse in Nvidia that took us
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back to basically $90 so we went we went
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from 140 back to 90 a $50 drop in Nvidia
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here we are coming up at 158 right to
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that level there and so on a technical
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basis for me at least that would be a
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level where I would say all right this
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is a level again where you start to be
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cautious and you say all right Nvidia
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may be running out of steam maybe it's
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due for another Allah July to August
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correction of $50 down move percentage
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wise that would be quite something uh
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now the interesting thing I have is we
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have Nvidia earnings on the 20th of
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November all right that's a week from
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what is it a week from next Wednesday I
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think it is after the close do we rally
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up into that 158 going into earnings or
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on earnings do we pop into that 158 and
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maybe that marks the top I have no clue
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which one it will be but what I will
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watch is that technical level and that's
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the beauty of technical analysis it
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gives us a level it doesn't tell us why
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or how we're going to get there but it
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tells us to watch that level all right
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going to TTD the trade desk falling
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sharply on earnings nice drop we're
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currently trading around 118 if we go to
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our daily chart here you can see the
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stock was Ring sharply into earnings
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notice that the pullback is only erasing
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essentially the last three days of
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upside in fact if you go right here this
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is exactly where we're trading which was
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the close on Monday so Monday's close is
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where we're back to on the back of
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earnings so it's a nice drop on earnings
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but the problem is it's just erasing
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three days that's not going to get me
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along the stock like I'm not going to
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step up just because it erased three
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days of upside it would have to fall
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much much further I would say maybe
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around this level right in here there's
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a nice little shelf area around 111 to
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112 if we dumped into that I might be
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interested at that point if we look at
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Pinterest Pinterest is another big mover
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here and that is dropping sharply down
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to about 29 and change if we go to our
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daily chart this is a much more
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interesting chart bringing it back to 29
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there's a gap fill at 2990 we're below
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that this would be your first area of
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support at 2850 I don't think I would
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play that we're too close we've already
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kind of kissed it in pre-market action
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but this low right here would be a good
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level to start to nibble on a day trade
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only I don't like it as a swing trade
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day trade trade at around 27 Pierce to
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the downside on a long potentially on
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Pinterest so I'll be watching that with
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the traders in the Apex live day trading
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room all right on to bitcoin here
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Bitcoin staying strong let's come over
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to the big board and take a look at what
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we have on bitcoin all right so Bitcoin
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we know it's broken out technically
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speaking and if you know the
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confirmation signal I could ask you this
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and quiz you on it but this is not
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confirmed yet now I still think it
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probably confirmed
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as long as the stock market let's say
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the S&P does inch up above 6,000 then
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you got to figure this is going to go a
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little bit higher on a shortterm basis I
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have a level around 880,000 that I think
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this could go to before you see a solid
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pullback where would that solid pullback
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come though think about this so you guys
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know and again I teach a little bit of
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this but most of it and the Deep dive is
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in the winning Trader series which I
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hope everyone eventually takes but the
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point being is once you confirm above
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your all-time high at 74,000 and go to
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80 so let's say we go up here to 80k
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right where would your pullback be quiz
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question all right where would your
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pullback be expected like what was your
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what would your downside first support
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be if you get to 880,000 and it starts
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to pull back and I hope a lot of you
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guys are saying it would be a retrace to
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the scene of the crime back to 74 right
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so price let's say it goes here and then
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finally pulls back where would support
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be the former resistance once it's
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confirmed above becomes technical
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support that's just standard technical
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analysis using what I call the scene of
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the crime retrace the scene of the crime
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be means the breakout right we talk
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about like a jailbreak so it jail breaks
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here they come back to the jail and then
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it continues potentially on so we'll
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watch that just a reminder as always the
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Bitcoin chart is very dependent on the
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stock market as long as the stock market
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keeps going up you have to assume
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Bitcoin will all right so that's a good
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chart to take a look at right there and
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just kind of keep your wits about you on
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that one uh we'll go quickly to Gold
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here and see what gold has in store for
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us if we look at this chart on gold gold
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is having a very minor pullback again
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right here with technical support the
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midpoint of the channel upside
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resistance would be this line still
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which would be a little bit higher than
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it was before since it's ups sloping and
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then if it breaks the dotted line where
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is your target boom right to the
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downside right there I still have half
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my short on gold I already pocketed half
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the profits right here the other half I
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would pocket probably right into this
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level just using the levels to guide me
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right it's not this is the beauty of
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technical analysis guys is that it
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really once you start to learn it and
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then you start to see it in action and
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then you see how high a probability it
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makes you as an investor and Trader it
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takes away the emotion all of a sudden
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it's like well it's hitting support and
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therefore I do this oh it's hitting
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resistance therefore I do doing this oh
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it's a bull flag with a time count oh
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it's a retrace to the scene of the crime
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versus most investors you know they get
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into a position because it's their hope
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it's their dream it's they you know they
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got hyped up by social media influencing
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them or the mainstream media but when
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you go to technical analysis it takes
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that away it's almost very freeing you
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know you won't be right all the time I
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certainly am not but at least I know
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that I'm basing my decisions on
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probability not on hopes and dreams
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hopes and dreams don't get us very far
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in life um in general you got to do the
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hard work you got to analyze you got to
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go with probability all right back to
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the charts real quick silver here taking
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a look at this silver is down just
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slightly it did bounce right off of this
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my question on silver could be could it
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be making an in a head and shoulders so
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if we just look at this and we bring up
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our head and shoulders um pattern
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pattern draw here you can see it's very
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early on but if we were to kind of go
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like this it could put in a head and
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shoulders pattern that's a bearish
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pattern for those of you at home that
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may not know what head and shoulders
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patterns are they're bearish and then
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the beauty of it is you can actually do
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a measured move you take the high down
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to the neckline here and you map that
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from the breakpoint gives you your
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downside Target as I've said before I
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would start nibbling around 20 on silver
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on a long but if it doesn't get there
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like I always say no big deal cuz
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there's always another trade coming
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around the corner all right lastly we'll
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just go over oil real quick here uh oil
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today not doing much oil to me the
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biggest thing is the big time frame here
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right so we have a lot of things here on
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the charts but basically as very clear
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and this I love how clear this chart is
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this chart very clearly shows massive
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support at65 A5 $65 right now what we
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see is that we have this going back to
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2008 and this line going back to 1999
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think about that 1999 was basically the
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height of the dotcom 2008 was just
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before the market collapsed in the Great
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Recession it was the start of the Great
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Recession so you're taking oil from
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those two crazy extremes and you're
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drawing trend lines in and you bring it
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to this point here and they crisscross
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right there and so my point is this just
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using ta technical analysis right if we
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ass assume at some point that line
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breaks and if it doesn't break so be it
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but once it breaks and confirms you know
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where you're headed right down there
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think about that guys how nice would
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that be for our our gas tanks of our
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cars right I mean where where would
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gasoline be if oil was $35 a barrel now
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the negative of that is where is the
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economy if and where's the global
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economy if oil is at $35 so I mean it's
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a give and take right yeah great that
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our we fill up our gas tanks for half
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the price that we're paying now but at
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the same time how many of us have jobs
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that point if oil is at 35 so it's you
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got to look at it as a give and take
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yeah it's great to have cheaper oil
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cheaper gas but what does it mean about
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the economy all right lastly really
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quickly guys natural gas real quick here
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let's take a look last I checked there
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wasn't much movement on natural gas
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let's go back to the daily chart and the
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daily chart same thing it's just
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consolidating here you might have a
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little bit of a bull flag starting to
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form which may indicate a slight bias to
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the upside but again up here is
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resistance down here is Major support I
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like that these two lines are slowly
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getting close closer and closer together
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that may give us additional support if
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it comes down there to be a buy but as
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of now there's nothing to do right there
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all right guys so lastly I just want to
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say to you guys you guys are rock stars
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each and every one of you that Tunes in
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every single day that leaves comments
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that spreads the word about what
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verified investing is trying to do to
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get rid of the hype and on in the media
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in the social media atmosphere help
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people understand probabilities and
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technical analysis this is again
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institutional stuff all right uh I've
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consulted with institutions I've trade
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trained hedge funds Traders I've done
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all this type of stuff um with all of
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this knowledge that I have here that I
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share with you guys and it's it's my way
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of giving back um to try to help you
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guys understand that there's other ways
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than just going by what the latest
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influencer says on X or on Facebook or
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all these other mediums or even the
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mainstream media listen I'll tell you
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when analysts come out and upgrade
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stocks and they're at all-time highs I
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actually use it as an inverse indicator
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I say wow they're upgrading that at it's
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already up 300% in the last month that's
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a sell signal all right sometimes these
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analysts at institutions either they
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have ulterior motives or they're just
00:16:07
playing bad but either way there's ways
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to understand what's going on as a
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retail investor uh like you and I and we
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can make it work and make us money off
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of it so as always folks you guys have a
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wonderful week it's been a wild one I
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think I'm tired I'm sure you're tired
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let's go get some rest and come back
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sharp and ready to make more money next
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week thanks for visiting verified
00:16:28
investing.com thanks take care
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