00:00:00
this is where the Triad of Iran
00:00:02
Afghanistan and Pakistan lies it is a
00:00:06
region full of activity though often for
00:00:09
the wrong reasons here communal life is
00:00:12
broken International borders are
00:00:14
breached daily and both militants and
00:00:17
militaries Carry Out secret operations
00:00:21
each looking for the next power grab in
00:00:24
recent years the region has become even
00:00:27
more violent and unstable exceeding its
00:00:30
usual turmoil reciprocal skirmishes now
00:00:33
make it one of the world's most
00:00:34
dangerous areas in January bosi
00:00:38
insurgents launched attacks across
00:00:40
borders into Iran and Pakistan the
00:00:43
Iranian Air Force responded by bombing
00:00:46
covert groups within Pakistan prompting
00:00:49
Pakistan to strike hostile camps in Iran
00:00:53
later in March Pakistan's Air Force
00:00:56
targeted Taliban units in Afghanistan in
00:00:59
retaliation for an earlier assault
00:01:01
meanwhile a different Taliban unit had
00:01:04
hit Iranian positions near the border a
00:01:07
year prior more recently in October
00:01:10
separatists attacked Karachi Airport
00:01:13
killing Chinese Engineers the list goes
00:01:16
on and on but these incidents show just
00:01:19
how intertwined Insurgency and local
00:01:22
grievances have become the 2024 Global
00:01:25
Security index now ranks Pakistan as the
00:01:29
fourth most most affected by militancy
00:01:31
Afghanistan at 6th and Iran at 26th here
00:01:36
nationalists jihadists militants and
00:01:39
governments all fight for Supremacy but
00:01:42
things are getting worse with each
00:01:44
attack the Triad is now slowly merging
00:01:48
into a single battle space and borders
00:01:51
have become like chalk lines bold today
00:01:54
smudged
00:01:55
tomorrow this region also has the
00:01:58
distinct honor of being one of the most
00:02:00
unfriendly places for women the Taliban
00:02:03
has recently tightened its morality law
00:02:06
Banning women from hearing each other
00:02:09
pretty insane stuff however as horrible
00:02:11
as this is I believe it is essential to
00:02:14
access local sources to stay informed
00:02:17
about how the region is doing and where
00:02:20
it's going that's why I asked ground
00:02:22
news to sponsor this video meanwhile in
00:02:25
Iran a female student was detained for
00:02:28
protesting the strict dress code she
00:02:31
stripped to her underwear in
00:02:33
demonstration some 250 articles were
00:02:36
published on this with an even
00:02:38
distribution between the right center
00:02:41
and left no articles from irond which
00:02:44
should come as no surprise with
00:02:47
everything that is happening around the
00:02:49
world stories on women's rights will
00:02:51
simply drown in the background noise so
00:02:54
I appreciate that ground news picks up
00:02:56
on these stories their blind spot page
00:02:59
also surfaces these kinds of interesting
00:03:02
items that go under the radar of all
00:03:04
other outlets go to ground. news/
00:03:07
Caspian to learn more or scan the QR
00:03:10
code on the screen subscribing gets you
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50% off the Vantage plan as a limited
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00:03:19
subscription will also help support our
00:03:21
Channel and make more content possible
00:03:23
so I recommend you check it out the link
00:03:26
is below
00:03:29
[Music]
00:03:32
underneath the Contemporary boundaries
00:03:33
of Central Asia lies the ghost of
00:03:36
corasan echoing the memories of ancient
00:03:39
empires once a rich cultural and
00:03:41
political Center corasan was ruled by
00:03:44
various turkic and Iranian monarchs each
00:03:47
vying for dominance yet the seat of
00:03:50
power shifted so often that no unified
00:03:53
Authority ever developed as a result
00:03:56
corasan became Asia's version of the
00:03:58
Wild West
00:04:00
in the 19th and 20th centuries corisan
00:04:03
became a Battleground for the Russian
00:04:06
and British Empires which sought to take
00:04:09
up defensible positions the Russians
00:04:12
Advanced from the northern steps while
00:04:14
the British came up from the south What
00:04:17
followed was a period of intense
00:04:20
geopolitical conflict that gradually
00:04:22
eroded kisan's shared identity caught in
00:04:26
the crossfire was the young Afghan State
00:04:29
both both Russia and Britain sought to
00:04:31
control it after years of back and forth
00:04:34
hostility a peace treaty was signed in
00:04:38
1893 that turned Afghanistan into a
00:04:41
British client State the peace treaty
00:04:44
crafted by Henry Durand established the
00:04:47
border between British India and
00:04:49
Afghanistan by drawing a line straight
00:04:52
across the map which he named after
00:04:55
himself Durant sat in his office and
00:04:57
simply calculated how far British
00:05:00
infantry could fire from their
00:05:02
westernmost posts and mark the line
00:05:05
accordingly no consideration was given
00:05:08
to geography history or even existing
00:05:11
realities on the ground nonetheless the
00:05:13
Durand Line was signed and imposed on
00:05:16
the region for the locals however the
00:05:19
agreement was a disaster it cut straight
00:05:22
through ethnic communities that had
00:05:24
existed together for centuries the
00:05:27
pashun people were particularly affected
00:05:29
as the new border divided their towns
00:05:32
and cities pashun were the rulers of
00:05:35
Afghanistan and while many pashton areas
00:05:38
remained in Afghanistan many more were
00:05:40
left outside of it this included
00:05:43
Peshawar the city of pearls for pashun
00:05:47
losing Pasha felt like losing an arm or
00:05:50
a leg it was a reality they could not
00:05:53
accept even now a century later
00:05:56
successive Afghan governments have
00:05:58
continued rejecting the Durant line
00:06:01
adding to the tension nearly three times
00:06:04
as many pashun live in Pakistan than in
00:06:07
Afghanistan not surprisingly this fuels
00:06:11
strong irredentist feelings in Kabal
00:06:13
which is why Afghanistan claims
00:06:16
Pakistan's kyber pakon Kua and balistan
00:06:19
regions if an Afghan government were
00:06:22
ever able to unite the pashton people
00:06:24
into a single political entity pashton
00:06:27
dominance in Afghanistan which currently
00:06:30
accounts for about 40% of the population
00:06:33
would grow stronger moreover Afghan
00:06:37
control over sparsely populated balistan
00:06:40
would give it access to the world's
00:06:42
oceans these two goals becoming an
00:06:45
ethnic majority and escaping landlocked
00:06:48
isolation could then serve as the
00:06:50
foundation for a modern centralized
00:06:53
Afghan State this vision for nation
00:06:56
building has been shared by all Afghan
00:06:59
governments old and new that includes
00:07:02
the
00:07:06
Taliban emerging from the wake of the
00:07:09
Soviet Union's war in Afghanistan the
00:07:11
Taliban ruled the country from 1996 to
00:07:15
2001 following a Civil War and once
00:07:18
again since 2021 after the American
00:07:22
withdrawal although the Taliban avoid
00:07:24
openly presenting themselves as strict
00:07:27
pashon nationalists their Origins and
00:07:29
beliefs are deeply rooted in pashun
00:07:32
culture like past Afghan governments the
00:07:35
Taliban strongly opposes the Durand Line
00:07:38
so much so that it draws strength from
00:07:41
it for example the Pakistani Taliban
00:07:44
which is different from the Afghan
00:07:46
Taliban exists solely to undo Pakistan's
00:07:50
control over kyber pona the region that
00:07:54
is home to Peshawar City and where the
00:07:56
pashon make up the majority Islam Abad
00:08:00
designated the Pakistani Taliban a
00:08:03
terrorist group in 2008 leading to
00:08:06
Fierce fighting between the two since
00:08:08
then thousands have been killed the
00:08:11
Pakistani Taliban has carried out
00:08:14
attacks on schools taken hostages bombed
00:08:17
mosques and more however these clashes
00:08:20
make for an unusual conflict Islam Abad
00:08:24
and the Afghan Taliban have historically
00:08:26
had close ties but this relationship has
00:08:29
cooled as the Afghan Taliban shares a
00:08:32
deeper bond with the Pakistani Taliban
00:08:35
even so much of the hostility unfolds
00:08:38
along the Durant line with the Pakistani
00:08:41
Taliban carrying out attacks kidnappings
00:08:44
and all the other things expected from
00:08:47
extremists meanwhile Pakistan responds
00:08:50
with drone and missile strikes but must
00:08:53
carefully avoid targeting the Afghan
00:08:55
Taliban so yeah an unusual conflict to
00:08:59
make make matters worse in 2015 Isis
00:09:02
corasan or Isis k for short emerged as
00:09:06
one of the militant groups thriving from
00:09:08
the turmoil although it has Global
00:09:11
Ambitions Isis K has mostly focused on
00:09:14
fighting Kabul not Islam Abad since it
00:09:17
doesn't consider Pakistan to be part of
00:09:20
historic kisan either way with the
00:09:23
Taliban back in control of Kabal Old
00:09:26
Wounds have reopened and new ones have
00:09:28
appeared in their pursuit of dominance
00:09:31
Taliban leaders have now allied with
00:09:34
several baloi sectarian groups the
00:09:37
balois have a lot in common with the
00:09:39
pashun they too are a divided people
00:09:43
most live in Pakistan where despite
00:09:46
numbering in the millions they make up
00:09:48
less than 4% of the population as such
00:09:52
there is a sense of marginalization
00:09:54
within the baloi community and many feel
00:09:57
that their cultural identity is under
00:10:00
threat this feeling of vulnerability
00:10:03
extends to the Iranian side as well
00:10:05
unlike the majority Shia Iranians bosis
00:10:09
are mostly Sunni because of these
00:10:12
differences in language and religion
00:10:14
bosis are Iran's most alienated ethnic
00:10:17
group and thus the most inclined toward
00:10:21
separatism and baloi separatist groups
00:10:24
are plenty there is The bistan
00:10:27
Liberation Front blf for short it was
00:10:30
formed in 1964 and has roots in the
00:10:33
anti-colonial and nationalist movements
00:10:36
of that era there is also the balok
00:10:38
Liberation Army or bla for short this
00:10:42
one was formed in the year 2000 as an
00:10:45
offshoot of the
00:10:46
blf however unlike its parent group The
00:10:49
bla rejects the political process and
00:10:53
Advocates solely for military action
00:10:56
both the blf and bla primarily operate
00:10:59
within Pakistan over in Iran meanwhile
00:11:02
there is yish al-adel a jihadist unit
00:11:06
with similar goals it was formed in 2012
00:11:10
and is believed to be funded by Saudi
00:11:12
Arabia and the United States in recent
00:11:15
years all three baloi separatist groups
00:11:18
have acquired American weapons and
00:11:20
equipment from the Taliban that new
00:11:23
Firepower has led to deadlier attacks
00:11:26
than ever in Pakistan baloi groups have
00:11:29
targeted buses trains and bridges in the
00:11:33
first 10 months of 2024 there were 624
00:11:37
deaths and nearly as many injuries
00:11:40
August was especially deadly with 254
00:11:44
people killed in one month alone baloi
00:11:48
militants are also particularly hostile
00:11:50
to Chinese interests in March five
00:11:54
Chinese Engineers were killed followed
00:11:56
by an attack on a Chinese facility later
00:12:00
a blast near Karachi Airport killed two
00:12:02
more Chinese Engineers things have been
00:12:05
tense on the Iranian side too last year
00:12:09
11 Iranian police officers were killed
00:12:12
near the city of rasque in response tan
00:12:15
launched missile and drone strikes into
00:12:18
Pakistani territory which led to
00:12:20
civilian casualties of course Islam Abad
00:12:24
had to set the record straight and
00:12:26
responded with air strikes into Iran
00:12:29
resulting in nine deaths all the same
00:12:32
the baloi militants aimed to create an
00:12:35
independent state from parts of Iran
00:12:38
Pakistan and Afghanistan arguably it's
00:12:42
shortsighted of the Taliban to Ally with
00:12:44
the baloi groups given their conflicting
00:12:47
territorial claims however the
00:12:50
prevailing belief is that they would
00:12:52
cross that bridge after stripping away
00:12:54
territories from Iran and Pakistan for
00:12:57
now though by joining forces with the
00:13:00
baloi militias the Taliban are making a
00:13:03
play for Pakistan's kyber Pak Tona and
00:13:07
balistan regions but without saying as
00:13:13
much one of the main sources of turmoil
00:13:17
in this region is the availability of
00:13:19
resources or lack thereof the water
00:13:22
conflict between Iran and Afghanistan is
00:13:25
a prime example of this struggle as a
00:13:28
country country with towering Peaks most
00:13:31
of Afghanistan's water flows from the
00:13:33
Hindu Kush which stretches across its
00:13:36
northern and Central regions these
00:13:39
glacial mountains feed the country's
00:13:41
hydroelectric dams and produce hundreds
00:13:44
of megawatts of electricity however
00:13:48
these dams also limit access to an
00:13:50
already scarce water supply creating
00:13:53
severe impacts for Downstream Iran take
00:13:57
the Helman River as an example Le it's
00:13:59
one of the largest rivers in the region
00:14:02
flowing from Afghanistan all the way up
00:14:04
to the hamon Lakes by the border with
00:14:07
Iran who controls what where and how
00:14:10
much of it is hotly contested both
00:14:13
Afghans and Iranians are ready to die
00:14:16
for it and some already have attempts to
00:14:19
formalize water rights have all failed
00:14:22
the closest thing to a binding agreement
00:14:24
is the
00:14:25
1973 Helmont water treaty it forms the
00:14:29
basis of bilateral water policy
00:14:32
according to the treaty Iran can draw 22
00:14:35
cubic M of water from the river per
00:14:37
second with an option to buy another 4
00:14:40
cubic m per second in years of normal
00:14:44
rainfall however since the treaty was
00:14:46
never ratified enforcement relies on
00:14:50
good faith something in as short supply
00:14:53
as the water itself political unrest in
00:14:56
both Nations has not helped either
00:14:59
events like the 1973 Afghan coup the
00:15:03
1979 Iranian Revolution the Soviet
00:15:06
Afghan war the us-led occupation and the
00:15:09
rise and fall and Rise of the Taliban
00:15:12
have all disrupted Regional projects as
00:15:15
a result long-term infrastructure
00:15:17
planning has been inconsistent with
00:15:20
local geography paying the price a
00:15:23
comparison of 1998 and 2019 satellite
00:15:27
photos of the hamon Lakes makes it easy
00:15:29
to see how such water scarcity can fuel
00:15:33
conflict over the years skirmishes have
00:15:36
flared up periodically in 1998 tensions
00:15:40
escalated to the point where Iran
00:15:42
gathered nearly 200,000 troops on The
00:15:45
Afghan border poised to launch an attack
00:15:49
and even though Iran ultimately backed
00:15:51
down the incident showed just how easily
00:15:55
disputes over water rights could spiral
00:15:58
into full SC conflict even now tensions
00:16:02
persist for instance in May 2023 deadly
00:16:06
clashes broke out between Afghan and
00:16:08
Iranian guards near the hamon Lakes
00:16:11
three were killed and each side blamed
00:16:13
the other for starting the fight arguing
00:16:17
who began what misses the larger Point
00:16:20
what matters is that the borders of Iran
00:16:23
Afghanistan and Pakistan are devolving
00:16:26
each at its own pace and setting
00:16:29
Islamabad tan and Kabul have each failed
00:16:32
to keep a lid on the ethnic Nationalist
00:16:35
and ideological forces at play gradually
00:16:39
the region from Pakistan's Northwest to
00:16:42
Iran's Southeast to Afghanistan South is
00:16:46
merging into a single battle space human
00:16:50
trafficking drug smuggling jihadist
00:16:52
Fighters Fringe militias and separatist
00:16:55
factions are all blending into a massive
00:16:58
self destructive security crisis that
00:17:01
eats its own this Triad may already be
00:17:04
the most dangerous place on Earth but an
00:17:07
even greater threat looms if the
00:17:09
situation continues to escalate the
00:17:12
remote factions could find ways to draw
00:17:15
the national governments of Iran
00:17:17
Afghanistan and Pakistan into direct
00:17:20
State on-state conflict some of the most
00:17:24
devastating armed conflicts in world
00:17:26
history were triggered by small Powers
00:17:29
it's called the proxy provocation Theory
00:17:32
it explains how smaller powers can
00:17:35
manipulate or influence larger ones into
00:17:38
Conflict by creating situations that
00:17:41
compel the larger powers to respond in
00:17:44
ways that serve the smaller Powers
00:17:47
interests if things keep going luck and
00:17:50
reason will eventually run out and
00:17:52
regional conflict will take place and
00:17:55
once the storm rolls in it will be too
00:17:58
late to run for the
00:18:00
hills I've been your host chivon from
00:18:02
caspan report if you approve of what we
00:18:05
do please leave a comment hit the like
00:18:08
button and mayhaps share the video in
00:18:11
any case thank you for your time and S
00:18:14
[Music]
