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2024 recap what do we expect in 2025 a
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few tips at the end if you're thinking
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about buying a home in Oregon now or in
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the near future you're going to want to
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watch this
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[Music]
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video hey everyone welcome back to the
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channel living in Oregon I am your host
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Seth Marchant licensed real estate
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broker in the state of Oregon and
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Washington or if you're new to this
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Channel and you'd like to see more about
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what it's like to live here we've got
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over 100 videos on the channel we
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release new videos every single week
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showing you exactly what it's like to
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live in Oregon really focusing around
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the Portland metropolitan area including
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Vancouver Washington so if you want to
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see more videos like that make sure and
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subscribe to this channel a lot of those
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videos are going to show you what the
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area is like a lot of neighborhood tours
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things like that some of these videos
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are going to talk to you about market
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conditions usually do about one of these
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videos every quarter we're at the end of
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the year so let's talk about what
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happened over 2024 and what we might
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expect coming into 2025 Cas Schiller has
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home prices up
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4.57% year over-year Oregon according to
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Redan is up 3% and Portland Portland
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proper is up
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1.4% for the year despite uh population
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decline which hasn't really been a thing
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uh up until recently if you actually
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want to see a little bit more about that
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we have a video on population decline
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right there and we are seeing some
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people leave Portland but they're mostly
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leaving leaving Portland for the suburbs
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Washington County clackmas County also
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leaving Portland uh for Central Oregon
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which is a really popular area so we're
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not necessarily seeing population
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decline in Portland for people that are
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leaving the state like we're seeing in
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some other states uh but we are seeing
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seeing some some people leave the city
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not unique to Portland of course with
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work from home and people looking for
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more space uh home offices things like
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that we're seeing a lot of people
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leaving the big cities for the suburbs
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and of course that's impacting the real
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estate market but spoiler alert the
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crash is not
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coming I feel like I can say that pretty
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confidently at this point if you follow
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me for long enough particularly years
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I've kept my story pretty consistent I
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just don't see home values not to be
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confused with prices I don't see home
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values going down now home prices and
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home values those two things are
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correlated a home price is what a home
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sells for a home value is what a home
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could potentially sell for home values
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are determined by home prices so these
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two things correlate but they're not the
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same thing so if you see a chart that
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says home prices have gone down doesn't
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necessarily mean that home values has
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gone down and really all that stuff is
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just for the most part clickbait there's
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tons of videos on YouTube just like this
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that are calling for a crash that are
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predicting a crash and the reason why
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that is a little YouTube secret well
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it's not unique uh to YouTube it really
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applies to all platforms applies to
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newspapers I guess uh but negative
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stories tend to get more engagement than
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positive stories so uh if if we talk
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about home prices going down those
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videos just tend to do better than if we
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say home prices are going to go up
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negative news like if there's a maybe
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let's say an earthquake you know some
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sort of uh catastrophe those things tend
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to get more clicks more watch time more
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eyeballs more engagement as opposed to
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something more positive uh firefighter
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rescues uh a a cat from a tree some
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feel-good fuzzy story those things don't
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get as much traction they don't get as
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much engagement so for that reason a lot
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of this Narrative of of home prices
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crashing is is just kind of fueled by
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that negative engagement type of content
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now me personally I don't love the
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negative stuff if I'm going to give you
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15 20 minutes of content every week I
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want it to be positive I like the
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positivity I don't love the negative
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stuff but the reality is we'd like to
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show you both sides and give you all the
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information if we do a video of 10
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reasons why you shouldn't move to
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Portland it's always going to do better
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than 10 reasons why you should move to
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Portland now I'd rather talk to you
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about why you should move to Portland
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but know so sometimes that information
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is important but again my point being a
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lot of the stuff that you've been seeing
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probably since 2020 2021 has really just
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been clickbait for that reason now if
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the crash does come and I am wrong uh
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I'll admit it I I'll eat my sock or
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something you know whatever it may be I
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I will make a video uh admitting that
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that my predictions were wrong but uh
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I've yet to have to make that video uh
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since I've been doing this in the past
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four years and I don't think I'm going
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to have to make a video like that coming
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up in
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20125 big reason is going to be like
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we've talked about so much inventory
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inventory just will not outpace
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demand and if you remember the last
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crash that we had in
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0607 that wiped out a lot of home
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builders a lot of home builders went
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bankrupt and have not since yet come
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back to the market so as far as home
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production goes we're not where we were
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actually pre
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0607 we're trying to get back there
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there's a lot of sentiment um you maybe
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heard uh during this most recent
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presidential election this topic came up
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a little bit uh talking about incentives
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for firsttime home buyers cutting red
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tape we're going to build a certain
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number of homes so there there is talk
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about some of these things and I did I
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did actually make this prediction in
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some past videos I did predict that we
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might see some legislation coming from
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the government at some point uh to help
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subsidize or incentivize the real estate
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market so this is definitely a problem
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that a lot of people are trying to solve
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we just don't have necessarily the tools
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to do it can't just magically you know
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make uh home builders appear now there
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is a lot of other impediments like red
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tape and affordability but that's a big
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one too just not simply just not having
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the people there to do the job that we
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need and we've also got a lot more
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people coming here we've got a lot of
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people immigrating to this country so
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it's real hard to see any reasons why
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inventory might outpace demand uh if I
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were to maybe try and find something in
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the near
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future the only thing I can really find
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is Maybe Baby Boomers and we're talking
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about like 5 to 10 years not a year or
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two but maybe Baby Boomers in the next 5
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to 10 years there's a lot of baby
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boomers that are in larger houses of
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that are empty nesters um you people
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that are living in you know two people
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that are living three to four bedroom
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houses that could potentially
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downsize and uh we could have some
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younger people some younger families
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upsize into those homes um often times
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when uh those older demographics move
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you know they they move in uh with
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family so we've seen a lot more
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multi-generational living more recently
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so if that type of trend continues if we
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see a lot of Boomers that are moving to
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smaller units people with bigger
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families can move to bigger units or
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those boomers are moving in with family
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that might open up a little space for a
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little bit more
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inventory um but it's not anything
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that's really dramatically going to
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change the equation there's nothing that
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signals that we could possibly get a
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crash anytime here in the near future if
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you're not familiar with what happened
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at 0608 I've talked about it quite a bit
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in the past but uh all of the variables
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are considerably different we're just
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not going to see something like that
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again if we did see some sort of Crash
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it's not going to be for the reasons
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that we did see that in ' 06 and 0708
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and some of the most recent data really
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supports that if you want to see the
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most recent market report I'll include
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that in the link uh of a link for that
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in the description of this video one
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thing that really jumped out to me was
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month over month
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25% up in pending sales uh and that
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comes right at the heels of of interest
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rates this is if you remember back in
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September we had rates getting close to
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6% and then the FED did a cut and people
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expected rates to continue to go down
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but rates actually went up I I did a
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video covering that and covering why
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that was well all those people that
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closed last month in November would have
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gotten under contract the previous month
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in October maybe sometime late September
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right when rates started going up so
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normally when rates go up you see uh you
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have this effect of rate shock people
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need to adjust their budget or
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expectations or whatever it may be so it
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usually slows the market down a little
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bit in this case we actually saw a
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pretty big jump out a the time of the
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year when it's usually slower in pending
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sales and that's coming at a time where
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since since 2020 since that little boom
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that we had uh kind of around
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lockdowns we saw a transaction slowly go
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down year-over-year fewer and fewer
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transactions as interest rates went up
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so that number was a little bit
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surprising to see Realtors are
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definitely feeling the effect I saw a
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stat for one of the mls's that I'm a
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part of the NW MLS which uh is Southwest
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Washington that's where Vancouver is
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Vancouver Washington on the other side
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of the river they sh a stat that a 40 3%
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of their members have not done a single
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transaction for
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2024 it's a little bit surprising it's
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not cheap to be a realtor all of these
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these mls's these associations there's a
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lot of fees it's it's not cheap just to
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to hold a broker's license so to not do
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one transaction for an entire year it's
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probably not going to be viable for a
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lot of
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Realtors we've kind of heard this over
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the last year or two with transactions
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going down I haven't seen any the
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numbers yet but we expected fewer and
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fewer licenses to be renewed and and the
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pace of people getting new licenses
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maybe to slow down a little bit in other
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words this Market of Realtors has been
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very saturated we expect there to be
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fewer Realtors with transactions going
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down now that is uh there's a point that
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I wanted to mention because there are
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some people that reach out to us
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Realtors especially Realtors Like Us on
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YouTube that reach a lot of people well
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in advance 6 months 12 months in advance
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and uh just know that not every realtor
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is going to be around for the next 12
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months so if you want to start a
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relationship with somebody if you're
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going to start working with somebody you
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want to feel confident that person's
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actually going to be around when it
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comes time for you to move a year maybe
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even two years from now usually people
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uh the the soonest they reach out to us
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in advance is usually like six months
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but occasionally we'll get somebody
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that's like a year or two down the road
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so something to think about when you're
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reaching out to Realtors when you're
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thinking about moving now as far as uh
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the market being balanced talked about
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that a lot in the past it's still really
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leaning towards a sellers Market in most
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cases but it's really neighborhood by
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neighborhood and even more specifically
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than that property by property depending
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on how aggressively the property is
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priced how it's marketed how it's
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presented things like that so it's
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pretty close to being balanced but still
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leans towards a seller's market and
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again that's just not going to change
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until we see the inventory change now
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how about rates so I mentioned the FED
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cut uh a moment ago here rates have also
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been the Big Talk other than
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inventory and I'll admit I haven't
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always got rate predictions right
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they're very difficult most Realtors
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don't even like to weigh in on these
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things and and try and predict these
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things because they are so difficult but
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I like probably many people thought that
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rates would probably be a little bit
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lower than they are now and uh if you
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watched my video last quarter about a
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month ago we expected rates to
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potentially continue to go down and
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Trend down into
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2025 with the most recent
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inflation data that might not be the
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case now as it stands right now the FED
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is going to meet uh on the 18th of this
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month so just in a couple of days and
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there is a very high likelihood uh that
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they are predicted to cut rates Again by
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a quarter perent they cut them about a
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month ago a quarter back in September
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they cut them half a point so almost a
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full point since September so late Q3 uh
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into Q4 so almost just one quarter going
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down almost a full point yet mortgage
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rates are really about the same as where
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they were two or 3 quars ago so for
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various different reasons we're not
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seeing the Fed rate Cuts mirror mortgage
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rates as closely as we had in the
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past and with those pesky inflation
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numbers we're going to expect maybe that
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the FED is going to pause cutting maybe
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they'll raise rates in
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2025 so if you've watched me for long
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enough and this is a lot reason why a
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lot of people say that they reach out to
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me to work with me as a real estate
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broker I call it how I see it and how I
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see it for 2025 is not going to be great
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it's not going to be great for buyers
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and it's not going to be great for
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sellers affordability is going to be
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difficult with high rates and that's
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going to make it difficult for sellers
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to maximize their profits too so it's
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really a weird market and that it's not
00:13:21
going to be great for buyers or sellers
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in
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2025 now with that being said as I
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mentioned K Scher has home prices going
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up over 4% over the past year that's
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kind of how it's been for most of the
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country 2020 went up about 20% 21 about
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20% 22 23 24 a lot of the country was
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anywhere from like 1 to 5% very few
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places actually went down in value or
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prices actually went down year over-year
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a lot of places were 1 to 5% and I don't
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see that changing next year or two years
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or five years or 10 years from now for
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the reasons that I mentioned so I do
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believe that real estate is still a
00:14:04
great investment if you're buying a
00:14:07
property to be your primary dwelling and
00:14:10
if you think that home prices cannot
00:14:12
continue to go up I can give you a lot
00:14:15
of examples where well other people have
00:14:17
also been very surprised you know one
00:14:19
that really comes to mind if you never
00:14:21
looked at the real estate market in
00:14:22
Vancouver British Columbia Canada not
00:14:25
the United States look at their home
00:14:28
prices look at their home values they
00:14:31
also thought the same thing because home
00:14:34
prices just got so high I think your
00:14:38
your average uh home prices uh for a
00:14:41
single family home in Vancouver British
00:14:44
Columbia is over $2 million you know
00:14:48
this is like Manhattan prices this is
00:14:49
like Bay Area San Francisco prices I
00:14:53
looked up uh the median income for an
00:14:55
individual in British Columbia uh was
00:14:58
about6 $2,000 uh which is about $80,000
00:15:02
American how do these people afford it I
00:15:04
don't know I I if anybody wants to weigh
00:15:07
in on how people in in British Columbia
00:15:09
with a median income of 80,000 American
00:15:11
dollars are uh affording $2 million
00:15:14
homes you know feel free to do so in the
00:15:17
comments but I do know that it's
00:15:19
happening uh and so there's been much
00:15:21
pre there's been a lot of precedent uh
00:15:23
where people thought home values can't
00:15:25
go up they're just uh they're too high
00:15:28
already which unaffordability is
00:15:31
historically high so I get the point but
00:15:33
uh that didn't stop home values for and
00:15:36
prices to continue to go up and for
00:15:37
people to continue to buy those
00:15:39
properties so I do still think that uh
00:15:41
real estate is a good investment
00:15:43
especially a good investment uh as a
00:15:45
hedge against inflation and I think
00:15:47
we're going to see a lot of what we saw
00:15:49
in the last couple years in the next
00:15:50
couple of years to come we're not going
00:15:52
to see a 2020 or 2021 again I mean it's
00:15:55
you know like the Vancouver thing that's
00:15:57
hard to imagine to 2020 home values went
00:16:00
up 20% year-over-year so if you had a
00:16:03
$500,000 house it was worth $600,000 the
00:16:06
next year uh obviously that's not
00:16:08
sustainable um so we probably won't see
00:16:10
anything like that anytime in the near
00:16:12
future but we're just not going to see
00:16:13
home values go down so for that reason
00:16:17
when you are buying a home it is more
00:16:19
important than ever to have a
00:16:21
professional that's going to be able to
00:16:22
guide you through that process actually
00:16:25
get you to the Finish Line with a
00:16:27
property that you want to be in
00:16:29
that's fitting within your budget you
00:16:31
know we are seeing some unique things
00:16:33
that we haven't seen in years past one
00:16:35
thing one little Pro tip for you people
00:16:37
out there that we're kind of seeing um
00:16:40
that that maybe some people are dropping
00:16:42
the ball on is homeowners insurance
00:16:45
normally in the past you kind of look
00:16:48
into your homeowners insurance towards
00:16:51
the end of the transactions like maybe
00:16:53
one of the last things that people tend
00:16:55
to do and you know it's it's usually not
00:16:57
too much more than what you're already
00:16:59
paying or if you're a firsttime buyer uh
00:17:02
you would have gone over rates with the
00:17:03
loan officer earlier and they probably
00:17:06
hadn't a change you know much since the
00:17:08
six or 12 months ago that you initially
00:17:10
talked to that loan officer whereas now
00:17:13
we're seeing rates really skyrocketing
00:17:15
and uh to the point of before your your
00:17:19
your homeowners insurance barely made a
00:17:21
dent in your mortgage payment that's why
00:17:23
you know maybe you waited it really
00:17:25
wasn't much of a consideration until
00:17:27
towards the end of the transaction
00:17:28
action whereas now we're actually seeing
00:17:30
some homeowners insurance it's making a
00:17:33
pretty big impact on people's mortgage
00:17:35
payments so much so that it's making it
00:17:37
unaffordable for some people actually
00:17:39
killing a deal a deal that's actually
00:17:40
under contract that doesn't close
00:17:42
because the the homeowners insurance was
00:17:44
too much so Pro tip right now one of the
00:17:48
biggest things that people are looking
00:17:50
out for or encountering when it comes to
00:17:52
affordability if you're one of those
00:17:54
people that really has to stretch your
00:17:56
budget and really has to mind the rate
00:17:59
so it fits within your budget for your
00:18:01
monthly mortgage payment look into
00:18:03
homeowners insurance early if you want
00:18:06
us to get you a connected with somebody
00:18:07
that can assist with that so we can
00:18:09
certainly do so so for
00:18:11
2025 I don't an anticipate home prices
00:18:14
going down don't really anticipate rates
00:18:17
going down they might not go down at
00:18:20
all a quarter ago I said something
00:18:22
slightly different again looking at all
00:18:25
of the signals all the indicators we had
00:18:27
a lot of reasons to believe that rates
00:18:29
would go down in 2025 now it's looking
00:18:32
like that might not be the case so
00:18:34
affordability is not going to improve in
00:18:37
2025 it's going to be more important
00:18:39
than ever to really be on top of your
00:18:41
game when it comes to doing a real
00:18:42
estate transaction there's probably
00:18:44
going to be some deals out there there
00:18:45
always are um with population decline in
00:18:48
Portland uh there might be a few places
00:18:50
where home values or home prices are
00:18:52
going down maybe not someplace that you
00:18:54
want to live um but nevertheless might
00:18:57
be the case in some places new Builders
00:19:00
new construction has some great
00:19:02
incentives nobody's probably going to
00:19:03
catch this in time uh for the end of the
00:19:05
year if you have cash you can do it you
00:19:07
can usually close in about 10 business
00:19:08
days uh so might be possible for some of
00:19:11
you cash people to still close before
00:19:13
the end of the year there's a ton of
00:19:14
great incentives for any Builder right
00:19:16
now that has something sitting ready to
00:19:19
close on that they want to close up
00:19:20
their books on for
00:19:22
2024 uh and then Builders will still
00:19:24
have some good incentives we anticipate
00:19:26
in 2025 as well so I think it's going to
00:19:28
going to be tough in 2025 mortgage
00:19:30
payments are going to be high and
00:19:31
choices are going to be low if you are
00:19:35
thinking about moving any questions at
00:19:37
all I invite you to call text email
00:19:39
however you want to get in touch you can
00:19:40
hit that QR code if you're watching from
00:19:43
TV like so many of you do that'll take
00:19:45
you to our website where you can find
00:19:46
all of our information and more if this
00:19:48
video is helpful give me a thumbs up hit
00:19:49
that like button leave us a comment let
00:19:52
us know what your plans are for 2025 do
00:19:55
you think home values are going to go
00:19:56
down I'm always willing to I'd love to
00:19:59
listen to differing opinions so if
00:20:01
somebody has some insights on that feel
00:20:03
free to share your comments about what
00:20:05
you think the Market's going to be like
00:20:06
and of course make sure and subscribe to
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you want to see what it's like to live
00:20:13
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every single week myself and another
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00:20:19
different perspectives both lifelong
00:20:21
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00:20:23
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00:20:25
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00:20:29
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00:20:34
[Music]
